There's an investigation into Rosberg's pole. The race officials will have about six incidents to consider, so the grid might change very significantly from the end of qualifying to the start of the race.
Rofl - we've just had actual polls which showed no differential swing in the marginals - on Thursday!
God you don't just need a comfort blanket - you want a 500tog duvet. Look at how much the Tories out-performed on the Survation Local Election poll - by 5%, with Labour under-shooting by 2%. The 2015 GE is all to play for.
Whatever get sl you through the night.
If you want to extrapolate the locals instead, fine. Labour four seats short.
Labour 4 seats short a year before the election with Ed in charge - I think I could just about live with it. Labour under-performed yesterday - 350 gains v expected 450 and 60% of those were in London. Apparently acc. to you all the Tories have disappeared so I must be Labour as well!
BTW marginal polling is notoriously unreliable - I expect Ashcroft' s is better than most but in a real election yesterday the Labour lead was 2%. Only a fool would think it's all over.
I had a Mongolian flatmate in Leeds in the early 80s, owner of a personal karaoke machine. Fool if you think its over was one of his favourites. Also a big fan (as were all the Mongolian students) of Monopoly, which was, apparently banned in Mongolia at the time
I believe he is now some kind of fatcat in the world of metals
I should have a thread on Ashcroft up in the next 30-45 mins.
There's a lot to wade through at the moment, so please bear with me.
Bearing
"Bear with", which you did not use, together with the person who notably uses it on the telly, is one of the more intensely irritating phenomena of our times.
Re Ashcroft, obviously a good poll for Labour, with two caveats. The first is that the numbers are not particularly secure: "half of voters say they may change their mind before the election". The second is that the leadership ratings tilt heavily to the Tories: "only three in ten would rather see Mr Miliband as Prime Minister than David Cameron".
Summary: a strong current advantage to Labour but the tide is running the Tories' way.
Rofl - we've just had actual polls which showed no differential swing in the marginals - on Thursday!
God you don't just need a comfort blanket - you want a 500tog duvet. Look at how much the Tories out-performed on the Survation Local Election poll - by 5%, with Labour under-shooting by 2%. The 2015 GE is all to play for.
Whatever get sl you through the night.
If you want to extrapolate the locals instead, fine. Labour four seats short.
Labour 4 seats short a year before the election with Ed in charge - I think I could just about live with it. Labour under-performed yesterday - 350 gains v expected 450 and 60% of those were in London. Apparently acc. to you all the Tories have disappeared so I must be Labour as well!
BTW marginal polling is notoriously unreliable - I expect Ashcroft' s is better than most but in a real election yesterday the Labour lead was 2%. Only a fool would think it's all over.
Ah yes, the "Rubbish the poll when you don't like its findings" approach, after all what does Ashcroft know compared to the great psephelogical pseuds of PB who get everything wrong and never ever learn.
LD vote sharply down on 2010 with Lab vote up a similar amount. UKIP vote sharply up on 2010 with Con vote down by a similar amount. Obviously churn means it is a bit more complicated than that, but pretty much as textbook a Lab gain as we'll see if that poll is right and things don't change that much in 12 months.
The general poll (sample size 26,000) also shows the absence of first-term incumbency that I mentioned puzzling us before. The headline need after adjusting for local demography, certainty to vote etc. is 11%. When people are asked to think about the specific likely candidates in their seats, it goes up to 13%.
I don't to be fair think this is due to any special failings in individuals - rather, it's because at a time when people are generally fed up with politics they don't assign special favour to whoever is in office.
LD vote sharply down on 2010 with Lab vote up a similar amount. UKIP vote sharply up on 2010 with Con vote down by a similar amount. Obviously churn means it is a bit more complicated than that, but pretty much as textbook a Lab gain as we'll see if that poll is right and things don't change that much in 12 months.
The general poll (sample size 26,000) also shows the absence of first-term incumbency that I mentioned puzzling us before. The headline need after adjusting for local demography, certainty to vote etc. is 11%. When people are asked to think about the specific likely candidates in their seats, it goes up to 13%.
I don't to be fair think this is due to any special failings in individuals - rather, it's because at a time when people are generally fed up with politics they don't assign special favour to whoever is in office.
You're too modest, maybe they like their incumbents but like their opposition candidates even more...
Dyed Woolie election prediction update Based on the locals, and recent polling, I anticipate an HoC split as follows Conservative 305 Labour 280 Lib Dem 25 UKIP 2 (Great Yarmouth and either Thanet South or Castle Point if they can Hoover up the Spinks vote) Green 2 (Brighton and Norwich South) Nats and NI 36 (SNP to gain 8)
David Cameron is PM with Lib Dem/SNP supply and confidence for a one year programme for Indy to be completed (or Devo Max implemented) before a return to the polls
Similar to Stephen Fisher's current forecast as regards Con & Lab seats, but 18 Scots & Welsh Nats? ....... I don't think so! Neither do I expect the SNP to support the Tories in any shape or form.
This is not a tip, but I've just backed Red Bull to top score, at 8. If Rosberg is penalised it's near certain Red Bull will top score, barring either driver having an accident (which can always happen, and could happen to Hamilton just as easily).
Re Ashcroft, obviously a good poll for Labour, with two caveats. The first is that the numbers are not particularly secure: "half of voters say they may change their mind before the election". The second is that the leadership ratings tilt heavily to the Tories: "only three in ten would rather see Mr Miliband as Prime Minister than David Cameron".
Summary: a strong current advantage to Labour but the tide is running the Tories' way.
The grunt work which needs to be done is to compare Ashcroft's findings, where there is known constituency overlap, with the polling returns from this week's council elections.
A 26,000 sample size is impressive but is still no match for a real election even on a below 40% turnout.
You're too modest, maybe they like their incumbents but like their opposition candidates even more...
Er... :-)
One Broxtowe-specific quirk: we appear to be much further ahead with AB voters (+18) and C1 (also +18) than C2 (+7) and similar to DE, +20). The overall figures in the marginals are very different (Labour just +2 in the AB group, otherwise 10/9/13). That may in fact reflect different candidate styles.
Re Ashcroft, obviously a good poll for Labour, with two caveats. The first is that the numbers are not particularly secure: "half of voters say they may change their mind before the election". The second is that the leadership ratings tilt heavily to the Tories: "only three in ten would rather see Mr Miliband as Prime Minister than David Cameron".
Summary: a strong current advantage to Labour but the tide is running the Tories' way.
A 26,000 sample size is impressive but is still no match for a real election even on a below 40% turnout.
Rofl - we've just had actual polls which showed no differential swing in the marginals - on Thursday!
God you don't just need a comfort blanket - you want a 500tog duvet. Look at how much the Tories out-performed on the Survation Local Election poll - by 5%, with Labour under-shooting by 2%. The 2015 GE is all to play for.
Whatever get sl you through the night.
If you want to extrapolate the locals instead, fine. Labour four seats short.
Labour 4 seats short a year before the election with Ed in charge - I think I could just about live with it. Labour under-performed yesterday - 350 gains v expected 450 and 60% of those were in London. Apparently acc. to you all the Tories have disappeared so I must be Labour as well!
BTW marginal polling is notoriously unreliable - I expect Ashcroft' s is better than most but in a real election yesterday the Labour lead was 2%. Only a fool would think it's all over.
Ah yes, the "Rubbish the poll when you don't like its findings" approach, after all what does Ashcroft know compared to the great psephelogical pseuds of PB who get everything wrong and never ever learn.
I don't 'rubbish the poll' - simply pointing out that yesterday's results on a much bigger sample give a very different picture. Some people on here would like to think Ed 's a shoe-in next year with little effort required. Given his performance I can see why they might hope that.
Rofl - we've just had actual polls which showed no differential swing in the marginals - on Thursday!
God you don't just need a comfort blanket - you want a 500tog duvet. Look at how much the Tories out-performed on the Survation Local Election poll - by 5%, with Labour under-shooting by 2%. The 2015 GE is all to play for.
Whatever get sl you through the night.
If you want to extrapolate the locals instead, fine. Labour four seats short.
Labour 4 seats short a year before the election with Ed in charge - I think I could just about live with it. Labour under-performed yesterday - 350 gains v expected 450 and 60% of those were in London. Apparently acc. to you all the Tories have disappeared so I must be Labour as well!
BTW marginal polling is notoriously unreliable - I expect Ashcroft' s is better than most but in a real election yesterday the Labour lead was 2%. Only a fool would think it's all over.
Ah yes, the "Rubbish the poll when you don't like its findings" approach, after all what does Ashcroft know compared to the great psephelogical pseuds of PB who get everything wrong and never ever learn.
I don't 'rubbish the poll' - simply pointing out that yesterday's results on a much bigger sample give a very different picture. Some people on here would like to think Ed 's a shoe-in next year with little effort required. Given his performance I can see why they might hope that.
Re Ashcroft, obviously a good poll for Labour, with two caveats. The first is that the numbers are not particularly secure: "half of voters say they may change their mind before the election". The second is that the leadership ratings tilt heavily to the Tories: "only three in ten would rather see Mr Miliband as Prime Minister than David Cameron".
Summary: a strong current advantage to Labour but the tide is running the Tories' way.
A 26,000 sample size is impressive but is still no match for a real election even on a below 40% turnout.
Mmm
*that's a sort of skeptical mm sound*
Nah, it is an "I'm far too lazy to crunch the numbers but if I mention it someone might" sound...
Otherwise I am supremely relaxed about the council outcomes.
Given the likely direction of travel over the next year for each of the major players they could hardly be a better starting point for the coalition.
No one is talking of replacing Cameron, or even Clegg for that matter. It is Miliband's future which is being questioned.
Re Ashcroft, obviously a good poll for Labour, with two caveats. The first is that the numbers are not particularly secure: "half of voters say they may change their mind before the election". The second is that the leadership ratings tilt heavily to the Tories: "only three in ten would rather see Mr Miliband as Prime Minister than David Cameron".
Summary: a strong current advantage to Labour but the tide is running the Tories' way.
The grunt work which needs to be done is to compare Ashcroft's findings, where there is known constituency overlap, with the polling returns from this week's council elections.
A 26,000 sample size is impressive but is still no match for a real election even on a below 40% turnout.
M'Lud got 29% for UKIP Thurrock. All but one ward was contested on Thursday and UKIP got 39.1%
Re Ashcroft, obviously a good poll for Labour, with two caveats. The first is that the numbers are not particularly secure: "half of voters say they may change their mind before the election". The second is that the leadership ratings tilt heavily to the Tories: "only three in ten would rather see Mr Miliband as Prime Minister than David Cameron".
Summary: a strong current advantage to Labour but the tide is running the Tories' way.
A 26,000 sample size is impressive but is still no match for a real election even on a below 40% turnout.
Mmm
*that's a sort of skeptical mm sound*
Nah, it is an "I'm far too lazy to crunch the numbers but if I mention it someone might" sound...
Otherwise I am supremely relaxed about the council outcomes.
Given the likely direction of travel over the next year for each of the major players they could hardly be a better starting point for the coalition.
No one is talking of replacing Cameron, or even Clegg for that matter. It is Miliband's future which is being questioned.
I agree about the comparisons that need to be made (and we'll have the Euros to overlay it all as well).
Dyed Woolie election prediction update Based on the locals, and recent polling, I anticipate an HoC split as follows Conservative 305 Labour 280 Lib Dem 25 UKIP 2 (Great Yarmouth and either Thanet South or Castle Point if they can Hoover up the Spinks vote) Green 2 (Brighton and Norwich South) Nats and NI 36 (SNP to gain 8)
David Cameron is PM with Lib Dem/SNP supply and confidence for a one year programme for Indy to be completed (or Devo Max implemented) before a return to the polls
Similar to Stephen Fisher's current forecast as regards Con & Lab seats, but 18 Scots & Welsh Nats? ....... I don't think so! Neither do I expect the SNP to support the Tories in any shape or form.
Are you right to be so sceptical, I wonder?
After a Yes vote, there would be additional polarization of the vote in Scotland for parties which are seen as likely to stand up for Scotland in negotiations. That will go against unionist parties, especially ones which don't have a separate Scottish organization, which means Labour. After voting yes, would you vote Labour given that it's run by people in London -a nd people who have a strong potential interest in wrecking the entire devolution + independence setup?
And that would be on top of the voting intention figures we've been seeing of late. Though I accept that SNP need a markedly higher percentage of votes than Labour just to get the same seats.
On SNP support for the Tories, it's not as if they have to live with each other after indy day, and (assuming negotiations go along even half decently) both will have a strong common interest in stopping Mr Miliband wrecking things. Remember that they cooperated on a S & C basis (the other way round) in the first SNP administration to keep the country running while Labour sulked in the corner.
Comments
There's an investigation into Rosberg's pole. The race officials will have about six incidents to consider, so the grid might change very significantly from the end of qualifying to the start of the race.
Labour - 52,691 out of 31 seats
Conservative - 30,042 out of 31 seats
Lib dem - 15,648 out of 31 seats
UKIP - 17,107 out of 16 seats.
Showed well in a couple of other places, Grimsby etc but further off lead.
Matthew Goodwin @GoodwinMJ · 32m
Preferred 2015 election result for UKIP voters in Ashcroft marginal poll: 27% Lab Gvt, 30% Con Gvt, 10% Lab-Lib, 13% Con-Lib
Summary: a strong current advantage to Labour but the tide is running the Tories' way.
I don't to be fair think this is due to any special failings in individuals - rather, it's because at a time when people are generally fed up with politics they don't assign special favour to whoever is in office.
A Labour councillor was asked about his response to the election.
He replied, "Bloody UKIP, coming over here, stealing our jobs".
A 26,000 sample size is impressive but is still no match for a real election even on a below 40% turnout.
One Broxtowe-specific quirk: we appear to be much further ahead with AB voters (+18) and C1 (also +18) than C2 (+7) and similar to DE, +20). The overall figures in the marginals are very different (Labour just +2 in the AB group, otherwise 10/9/13). That may in fact reflect different candidate styles.
*that's a sort of skeptical mm sound*
In more unusual breaking news: 21 strong hen party invades Kilkenny count centre with a life size male doll...
Otherwise I am supremely relaxed about the council outcomes.
Given the likely direction of travel over the next year for each of the major players they could hardly be a better starting point for the coalition.
No one is talking of replacing Cameron, or even Clegg for that matter. It is Miliband's future which is being questioned.
:-) Very good indeed.
I'm skeptical about the "no match" comment.
After a Yes vote, there would be additional polarization of the vote in Scotland for parties which are seen as likely to stand up for Scotland in negotiations. That will go against unionist parties, especially ones which don't have a separate Scottish organization, which means Labour. After voting yes, would you vote Labour given that it's run by people in London -a nd people who have a strong potential interest in wrecking the entire devolution + independence setup?
And that would be on top of the voting intention figures we've been seeing of late. Though I accept that SNP need a markedly higher percentage of votes than Labour just to get the same seats.
On SNP support for the Tories, it's not as if they have to live with each other after indy day, and (assuming negotiations go along even half decently) both will have a strong common interest in stopping Mr Miliband wrecking things. Remember that they cooperated on a S & C basis (the other way round) in the first SNP administration to keep the country running while Labour sulked in the corner.
http://www.libdems4change.org/
It now has 150 LD members signed up wanting Clegg out.