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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Opinium finds a net 13% drop in two weeks in government’s “Coronavirus Handling” approval rating
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I'm losing confidence in them, I must admit. Clearly not alone in this.0
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It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.4
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https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1290304128095313920kinabalu said:I'm losing confidence in them, I must admit. Clearly not alone in this.
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Fantastic SCon figure in that Opinium, more than double SLab’s 14%.
Fieldwork prior to the Carlaw sacking, but still.
With the SLDs on a dire 1% (fairly typical in recent polls), the SCons have totally cornered the British nationalist vote.
https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/VI-30-07-2020-Data-Tables-1.xlsx1 -
The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:Richard_Nabavi said:It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.
There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.
Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.
1 -
In this pious hope that this thread will be third time lucky:
@TheScreamingEaglesScott_xP said:
What was that about disgraced national security risks again?0 -
Given that we don't actually have quarantine anyway, that would be the most meaningless diplomatic gesture since Andorra declared war on Germany.Scott_xP said:
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1290304128095313920kinabalu said:I'm losing confidence in them, I must admit. Clearly not alone in this.
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Its logical. We can control the virus in our own country more than other countries and if people want to travel and go through airports then let them quarantine afterwards.Scott_xP said:
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1290304128095313920kinabalu said:I'm losing confidence in them, I must admit. Clearly not alone in this.
If people want to take a holiday then I'm sure there's UK destinations that could do with the customers!2 -
Boris Johnson has at least two of them in the current cabinet, and Liam Fox he nominated for an important WTO job?ydoethur said:In this pious hope that this thread will be third time lucky:
@TheScreamingEaglesScott_xP said:
What was that about disgraced national security risks again?
Is it any surprise a man called Boris might not have the best interest of Le Royaume-Uni at heart.3 -
Be wary of subsamples.The LDs would perform better than that in reality.StuartDickson said:Fantastic SCon figure in that Opinium, more than double SLab’s 14%.
Fieldwork prior to the Carlaw sacking, but still.
With the SLDs on a dire 1% (fairly typical in recent polls), the SCons have totally cornered the British nationalist vote.
https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/VI-30-07-2020-Data-Tables-1.xlsx0 -
I think to a degree that was inevitable, as a stop start kind of approach was not all that unexpected in a fast changing situation, especially one which, as rcs1000 notes, by the time you can see something it may be too late.Richard_Nabavi said:It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.
I was going to say the LDs seem to fading to nothing outside England, given it is bad in Wales too I believe, but it is not exactly a rosy picture there either. Not sure how the new leader could reverse that.StuartDickson said:Fantastic SCon figure in that Opinium, more than double SLab’s 14%.
Fieldwork prior to the Carlaw sacking, but still.
With the SLDs on a dire 1% (fairly typical in recent polls), the SCons have totally cornered the British nationalist vote.
https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/VI-30-07-2020-Data-Tables-1.xlsx0 -
RCS1000 outlines the problem better than I would.kinabalu said:
Basically by the time you know you need to do something it's too late which means you need to hit things early which means you will need to hit them often which will eventually cause resentment.rcs1000 said:
The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:Richard_Nabavi said:It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.
There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.
Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.1 -
Yep, this is by any standards an incredibly challenging set of trade-offs, and it's fair to say that other countries are also finding it very hard to ease off lockdowns safely. Still, the government hasn't helped itself (or us) by screwing up the messaging so much, and the media have made it worse by their incessant whingeing at every stage - 'too fast, too slow, targeting BAME communities, not doing enough for BAME communities, putting the economy before public health, wrecking businesses...', and that's just one BBC news programme (any BBC news programme, it sometimes seems).rcs1000 said:
The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:Richard_Nabavi said:It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.
There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.
Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.4 -
Correct - although ironically they got it right with Spain - the infection growth in many of the costas is quite rapid now. I am no longer convinced the authorities have got a handle on it.rcs1000 said:
The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:Richard_Nabavi said:It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.
There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.
Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.0 -
England case data
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England case numbers -
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England case numbers scaled to 100k population
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That is the sort of detail that should have been in the Committee report Boris tried to suppress.ydoethur said:In this pious hope that this thread will be third time lucky:
@TheScreamingEaglesScott_xP said:
What was that about disgraced national security risks again?0 -
If people were travelling between the mainland and the costas then it was quite probable the costas were two weeks behind the mainland.felix said:
Correct - although ironically they got it right with Spain - the infection growth in many of the costas is quite rapid now. I am no longer convinced the authorities have got a handle on it.rcs1000 said:
The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:Richard_Nabavi said:It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.
There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.
Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.1 -
Whatever the arguments, the polls suggest many people seem quite content to put up with the restrictions they are having to endure1
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The LibDems need some sort of policy that is enthusiastically supported by about 15% of the population, but which is ignored by the other 85%. Opposition to the Iraq war in the mid-2000s was one example of this.kle4 said:I was going to say the LDs seem to fading to nothing outside England, given it is bad in Wales too I believe, but it is not exactly a rosy picture there either. Not sure how the new leader could reverse that.
In all likelihood something will come along - perhaps they end up being the lockdown-sceptics.0 -
Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?Malmesbury said:England case numbers -
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Liberalism in the very fringy bits of the Celtic Fringe is very ingrained. Orkney and Shetland will probably stay LD this side of a zombie apocalypse (although I dare say that's pencilled in for 2021) and every once in a while Ceredigion will go LD, and then back again.kle4 said:
I think to a degree that was inevitable, as a stop start kind of approach was not all that unexpected in a fast changing situation, especially one which, as rcs1000 notes, by the time you can see something it may be too late.Richard_Nabavi said:It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.
I was going to say the LDs seem to fading to nothing outside England, given it is bad in Wales too I believe, but it is not exactly a rosy picture there either. Not sure how the new leader could reverse that.StuartDickson said:Fantastic SCon figure in that Opinium, more than double SLab’s 14%.
Fieldwork prior to the Carlaw sacking, but still.
With the SLDs on a dire 1% (fairly typical in recent polls), the SCons have totally cornered the British nationalist vote.
https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/VI-30-07-2020-Data-Tables-1.xlsx0 -
PHE all settings numbers -
Note the huge gap at the end, from the weekend reporting shadow.... Tomorrow, expect a big headline number as the lawyer with the kimono and the baseball bat comes off weekend break.
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Wonder what's going on in Leeds. It was pretty low for a few weeks, but then a bigger spike in the last few days. I know one of my friends who recently returned from Berlin tested positive and test and trace have been active with him.Malmesbury said:England case numbers -
[Snipped out to save scrolling]0 -
The media complained and complained about quarantine in particular. The media clearly wanted their holidays even if most responsible people are staying in the UK and not going abroad this year.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yep, this is by any standards an incredibly challenging set of trade-offs, and it's fair to say that other countries are also finding it very hard to ease off lockdowns safely. Still, the government hasn't helped itself (or us) by screwing up the messaging so much, and the media have made it worse by their incessant whingeing at every stage - 'too fast, too slow, targeting BAME communities, not doing enough for BAME communities, putting the economy before public health, wrecking businesses...', and that's just one BBC news programme (any BBC news programme, it sometimes seems).rcs1000 said:
The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:Richard_Nabavi said:It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.
There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.
Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.4 -
FPT @ geoffw
TimT said:
» show previous quotes
"That would bump me up the list, so perhaps I should agree.
"Seriously, Redfield's comment about it needing to be seen to be fair and equitable, not just efficient and effective, is a key point."
geoffw said
"Sorry to differ with you about that. It is easy to agree on the words "fair and equitable" but also easy to dispute any particular notion of what that entails in practice. I think the sole aim is to control the epidemic, both the severity and the spread. A corollary could be that if it threatens to rage in poor countries with deficient health systems, then they should perhaps be prioritised."
At some point lack of 'fair and equitable' impairs the performance of 'efficient and effective'.0 -
I find it pretty incredible that the LDs barely lost Ceredigion in 2017, but came third in 2019, at a time where they were polling higher.rpjs said:
Liberalism in the very fringy bits of the Celtic Fringe is very ingrained. Orkney and Shetland will probably stay LD this side of a zombie apocalypse (although I dare say that's pencilled in for 2021) and every once in a while Ceredigion will go LD, and then back again.kle4 said:
I think to a degree that was inevitable, as a stop start kind of approach was not all that unexpected in a fast changing situation, especially one which, as rcs1000 notes, by the time you can see something it may be too late.Richard_Nabavi said:It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.
I was going to say the LDs seem to fading to nothing outside England, given it is bad in Wales too I believe, but it is not exactly a rosy picture there either. Not sure how the new leader could reverse that.StuartDickson said:Fantastic SCon figure in that Opinium, more than double SLab’s 14%.
Fieldwork prior to the Carlaw sacking, but still.
With the SLDs on a dire 1% (fairly typical in recent polls), the SCons have totally cornered the British nationalist vote.
https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/VI-30-07-2020-Data-Tables-1.xlsx
One of those odd seats that survived the 2015 cull but not 2017 to boot.0 -
Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.bigjohnowls said:
Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?Malmesbury said:England case numbers -
The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.0 -
Spanish deaths per day are still under 10 though, right? and have been for some timefelix said:
Correct - although ironically they got it right with Spain - the infection growth in many of the costas is quite rapid now. I am no longer convinced the authorities have got a handle on it.rcs1000 said:
The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:Richard_Nabavi said:It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.
There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.
Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.0 -
928 new positive tests in last 24hrs compared to 685 last week at the same time.
Seems like a marvelous opportunity to launch a scheme to get everyone to go to restaurants and eat for half price
TORY FIASCO0 -
Leeds getting promoted?RH1992 said:
Wonder what's going on in Leeds. It was pretty low for a few weeks, but then a bigger spike in the last few days. I know one of my friends who recently returned from Berlin tested positive and test and trace have been active with him.Malmesbury said:England case numbers -
[Snipped out to save scrolling]
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But we don't quarantine anyonePhilip_Thompson said:
Its logical. We can control the virus in our own country more than other countries and if people want to travel and go through airports then let them quarantine afterwards.Scott_xP said:
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1290304128095313920kinabalu said:I'm losing confidence in them, I must admit. Clearly not alone in this.
If people want to take a holiday then I'm sure there's UK destinations that could do with the customers!1 -
Do you think there is a trend?Malmesbury said:
Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.bigjohnowls said:
Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?Malmesbury said:England case numbers -
The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.
If so is it down, flat or rising?0 -
Has to be a link you would have thoughtGallowgate said:
Leeds getting promoted?RH1992 said:
Wonder what's going on in Leeds. It was pretty low for a few weeks, but then a bigger spike in the last few days. I know one of my friends who recently returned from Berlin tested positive and test and trace have been active with him.Malmesbury said:England case numbers -
[Snipped out to save scrolling]0 -
Cases are rising.bigjohnowls said:
Do you think there is a trend?Malmesbury said:
Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.bigjohnowls said:
Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?Malmesbury said:England case numbers -
The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.
If so is it down, flat or rising?
Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.0 -
.
You are supposed to, aren't you?RochdalePioneers said:
But we don't quarantine anyonePhilip_Thompson said:
Its logical. We can control the virus in our own country more than other countries and if people want to travel and go through airports then let them quarantine afterwards.Scott_xP said:
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1290304128095313920kinabalu said:I'm losing confidence in them, I must admit. Clearly not alone in this.
If people want to take a holiday then I'm sure there's UK destinations that could do with the customers!0 -
Unless you want to go for an eye test.RobD said:.
You are supposed to, aren't you?RochdalePioneers said:
But we don't quarantine anyonePhilip_Thompson said:
Its logical. We can control the virus in our own country more than other countries and if people want to travel and go through airports then let them quarantine afterwards.Scott_xP said:
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1290304128095313920kinabalu said:I'm losing confidence in them, I must admit. Clearly not alone in this.
If people want to take a holiday then I'm sure there's UK destinations that could do with the customers!0 -
Of the eight seats that the LDs retained in 2015, I think they only won two in 2019 (Orkney & Shetland, and Westmoreland & Lonsdale). In the intervening period - despite adding three seats net - they managed to lose Eastbourne, Sheffield Hallam, Ceredigion, Carshalton & Wallington, North Norfolk, and Leeds North West.kle4 said:
I find it pretty incredible that the LDs barely lost Ceredigion in 2017, but came third in 2019, at a time where they were polling higher.rpjs said:
Liberalism in the very fringy bits of the Celtic Fringe is very ingrained. Orkney and Shetland will probably stay LD this side of a zombie apocalypse (although I dare say that's pencilled in for 2021) and every once in a while Ceredigion will go LD, and then back again.kle4 said:
I think to a degree that was inevitable, as a stop start kind of approach was not all that unexpected in a fast changing situation, especially one which, as rcs1000 notes, by the time you can see something it may be too late.Richard_Nabavi said:It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.
I was going to say the LDs seem to fading to nothing outside England, given it is bad in Wales too I believe, but it is not exactly a rosy picture there either. Not sure how the new leader could reverse that.StuartDickson said:Fantastic SCon figure in that Opinium, more than double SLab’s 14%.
Fieldwork prior to the Carlaw sacking, but still.
With the SLDs on a dire 1% (fairly typical in recent polls), the SCons have totally cornered the British nationalist vote.
https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/VI-30-07-2020-Data-Tables-1.xlsx
One of those odd seats that survived the 2015 cull but not 2017 to boot.0 -
Could well be, I suppose I'll try and see which neighbourhoods have the highest spikes when the data comes out later in the week, because if it's NW Leeds it's more likely to be students misbehaving rather than that.bigjohnowls said:
Has to be a link you would have thoughtGallowgate said:
Leeds getting promoted?RH1992 said:
Wonder what's going on in Leeds. It was pretty low for a few weeks, but then a bigger spike in the last few days. I know one of my friends who recently returned from Berlin tested positive and test and trace have been active with him.Malmesbury said:England case numbers -
[Snipped out to save scrolling]0 -
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Thanks MalmesburyMalmesbury said:
Cases are rising.bigjohnowls said:
Do you think there is a trend?Malmesbury said:
Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.bigjohnowls said:
Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?Malmesbury said:England case numbers -
The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.
If so is it down, flat or rising?
Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.
If cases are rising, will Eat out to help out make matters significantly worse or have little impact in your opinion?0 -
Get the impression that the PC, Ben Lake, put a LOT of work in. Local boy, too, and, in a constituency with a lot of Welsh speakers, he is. Which Williams wasn'tkle4 said:
I find it pretty incredible that the LDs barely lost Ceredigion in 2017, but came third in 2019, at a time where they were polling higher.rpjs said:
Liberalism in the very fringy bits of the Celtic Fringe is very ingrained. Orkney and Shetland will probably stay LD this side of a zombie apocalypse (although I dare say that's pencilled in for 2021) and every once in a while Ceredigion will go LD, and then back again.kle4 said:
I think to a degree that was inevitable, as a stop start kind of approach was not all that unexpected in a fast changing situation, especially one which, as rcs1000 notes, by the time you can see something it may be too late.Richard_Nabavi said:It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.
I was going to say the LDs seem to fading to nothing outside England, given it is bad in Wales too I believe, but it is not exactly a rosy picture there either. Not sure how the new leader could reverse that.StuartDickson said:Fantastic SCon figure in that Opinium, more than double SLab’s 14%.
Fieldwork prior to the Carlaw sacking, but still.
With the SLDs on a dire 1% (fairly typical in recent polls), the SCons have totally cornered the British nationalist vote.
https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/VI-30-07-2020-Data-Tables-1.xlsx
One of those odd seats that survived the 2015 cull but not 2017 to boot.0 -
Is transmission more likely in a place that enforces distancing compared to one that doesn't?bigjohnowls said:
Thanks MalmesburyMalmesbury said:
Cases are rising.bigjohnowls said:
Do you think there is a trend?Malmesbury said:
Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.bigjohnowls said:
Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?Malmesbury said:England case numbers -
The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.
If so is it down, flat or rising?
Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.
If cases are rising, will Eat out to help out make matters significantly worse or have little impact in your opinion?0 -
Yes.contrarian said:
Spanish deaths per day are still under 10 though, right? and have been for some timefelix said:
Correct - although ironically they got it right with Spain - the infection growth in many of the costas is quite rapid now. I am no longer convinced the authorities have got a handle on it.rcs1000 said:
The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:Richard_Nabavi said:It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.
There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.
Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.
But remember this rule of thumb: 14 days between infection and diagnosis, seven days between diagnosis and hospitalisation, and 14 days between hospitalisation and death. (Herman Cain having pretty much nailed that timetable, assuming he got his CV19 at Trump's Tulsa rally.)
That being said, the current age profile of infections (i.e. younger people) suggests that we won't see that much in the way of hospitalisations and deaths, at least initially. The problem occurs when Junior passes CV19 onto dad (who still feels fine and is presymptomatic), who then goes to see granddad.
There's a great heatmap for Florida showing how infection went from being all about 16-24 year olds a month ago, and are slowly but surely rising up the age brackets.1 -
The deaths are much better - improved treatments perhaps but mainly a much younger age profile for contagion so far. I worry that this could easily change as the numbers of cases grow. Also - the Spanish data is estimated to have undercounted deaths by around 20,000 overall so I would not be too trusting of the figures. I'm afraid the decision to go for a big tourist season at the last minute was, albeit understandable, a mistake. The Spanish nighlife is driving the figures on the costas now. My own tiny little tourist town has 25 new cases this w/e with more to follow. This was the first time the cumulative total had gone above 6 or 7!contrarian said:
Spanish deaths per day are still under 10 though, right? and have been for some timefelix said:
Correct - although ironically they got it right with Spain - the infection growth in many of the costas is quite rapid now. I am no longer convinced the authorities have got a handle on it.rcs1000 said:
The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:Richard_Nabavi said:It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.
There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.
Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.0 -
Or "MP" with "Tory MP"/"Labour MP"No_Offence_Alan said:
0 -
It's a difficult thing to manage no question about that. But if the Tory leadership run off had gone differently we could have had a PM with the perfect profile for this. An unflappable and diligent guy who was Health Secretary for 7 years. Instead we have Boris Johnson.eek said:
RCS1000 outlines the problem better than I would.kinabalu said:
Basically by the time you know you need to do something it's too late which means you need to hit things early which means you will need to hit them often which will eventually cause resentment.rcs1000 said:
The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:Richard_Nabavi said:It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.
There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.
Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.
So it's a case of what might have been and when contemplating this disastrous combination of Covid pandemic and PM "Boris" that's the word that tends to spring to my mind - Hunt.0 -
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Surely if everyone then doesn't go and hug their grandparents the "much younger age profile" will mean that cases are simply not that much a problem?felix said:
The deaths are much better - improved treatments perhaps but mainly a much younger age profile for contagion so far. I worry that this could easily change as the numbers of cases grow. Also - the Spanish data is estimated to have undercounted deaths by around 20,000 overall so I would not be too trusting of the figures. I'm afraid the decision to go for a big tourist season at the last minute was, albeit understandable, a mistake. The Spanish nighlife is driving the figures on the costas now. My own tiny little tourist town has 25 new cases this w/e with more to follow. This was the first time the cumulative total had gone above 6 or 7!contrarian said:
Spanish deaths per day are still under 10 though, right? and have been for some timefelix said:
Correct - although ironically they got it right with Spain - the infection growth in many of the costas is quite rapid now. I am no longer convinced the authorities have got a handle on it.rcs1000 said:
The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:Richard_Nabavi said:It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.
There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.
Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.0 -
Someone else posted here that Florida's numbers were primarily young when the outbreak started, but it's been gradually getting worse for the older folks.TOPPING said:
Surely if everyone then doesn't go and hug their grandparents the "much younger age profile" will mean that cases are simply not that much a problem?felix said:
The deaths are much better - improved treatments perhaps but mainly a much younger age profile for contagion so far. I worry that this could easily change as the numbers of cases grow. Also - the Spanish data is estimated to have undercounted deaths by around 20,000 overall so I would not be too trusting of the figures. I'm afraid the decision to go for a big tourist season at the last minute was, albeit understandable, a mistake. The Spanish nighlife is driving the figures on the costas now. My own tiny little tourist town has 25 new cases this w/e with more to follow. This was the first time the cumulative total had gone above 6 or 7!contrarian said:
Spanish deaths per day are still under 10 though, right? and have been for some timefelix said:
Correct - although ironically they got it right with Spain - the infection growth in many of the costas is quite rapid now. I am no longer convinced the authorities have got a handle on it.rcs1000 said:
The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:Richard_Nabavi said:It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.
There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.
Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.0 -
Not before December? Damn. It's the only one missing on my 2020 apocalypse bingo.rpjs said:
Liberalism in the very fringy bits of the Celtic Fringe is very ingrained. Orkney and Shetland will probably stay LD this side of a zombie apocalypse (although I dare say that's pencilled in for 2021) and every once in a while Ceredigion will go LD, and then back again.kle4 said:
I think to a degree that was inevitable, as a stop start kind of approach was not all that unexpected in a fast changing situation, especially one which, as rcs1000 notes, by the time you can see something it may be too late.Richard_Nabavi said:It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.
I was going to say the LDs seem to fading to nothing outside England, given it is bad in Wales too I believe, but it is not exactly a rosy picture there either. Not sure how the new leader could reverse that.StuartDickson said:Fantastic SCon figure in that Opinium, more than double SLab’s 14%.
Fieldwork prior to the Carlaw sacking, but still.
With the SLDs on a dire 1% (fairly typical in recent polls), the SCons have totally cornered the British nationalist vote.
https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/VI-30-07-2020-Data-Tables-1.xlsx1 -
The problem is that when restrictions are lifted, (young) people don't slowly increase their social circle, they suddenly go and do all the things they weren't previously allowed to do.felix said:
The deaths are much better - improved treatments perhaps but mainly a much younger age profile for contagion so far. I worry that this could easily change as the numbers of cases grow. Also - the Spanish data is estimated to have undercounted deaths by around 20,000 overall so I would not be too trusting of the figures. I'm afraid the decision to go for a big tourist season at the last minute was, albeit understandable, a mistake. The Spanish nighlife is driving the figures on the costas now. My own tiny little tourist town has 25 new cases this w/e with more to follow. This was the first time the cumulative total had gone above 6 or 7!contrarian said:
Spanish deaths per day are still under 10 though, right? and have been for some timefelix said:
Correct - although ironically they got it right with Spain - the infection growth in many of the costas is quite rapid now. I am no longer convinced the authorities have got a handle on it.rcs1000 said:
The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:Richard_Nabavi said:It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.
There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.
Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.
They go to nightclubs and bars and socialise with their friends and have a great time, and suddenly you country doesn't have 1,000 people with CV19, it has 25,000.2 -
Is there a connection between the two?RobD said:
Someone else posted here that Florida's numbers were primarily young when the outbreak started, but it's been gradually getting worse for the older folks.TOPPING said:
Surely if everyone then doesn't go and hug their grandparents the "much younger age profile" will mean that cases are simply not that much a problem?felix said:
The deaths are much better - improved treatments perhaps but mainly a much younger age profile for contagion so far. I worry that this could easily change as the numbers of cases grow. Also - the Spanish data is estimated to have undercounted deaths by around 20,000 overall so I would not be too trusting of the figures. I'm afraid the decision to go for a big tourist season at the last minute was, albeit understandable, a mistake. The Spanish nighlife is driving the figures on the costas now. My own tiny little tourist town has 25 new cases this w/e with more to follow. This was the first time the cumulative total had gone above 6 or 7!contrarian said:
Spanish deaths per day are still under 10 though, right? and have been for some timefelix said:
Correct - although ironically they got it right with Spain - the infection growth in many of the costas is quite rapid now. I am no longer convinced the authorities have got a handle on it.rcs1000 said:
The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:Richard_Nabavi said:It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.
There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.
Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.0 -
I think that was the implication.TOPPING said:
Is there a connection between the two?RobD said:
Someone else posted here that Florida's numbers were primarily young when the outbreak started, but it's been gradually getting worse for the older folks.TOPPING said:
Surely if everyone then doesn't go and hug their grandparents the "much younger age profile" will mean that cases are simply not that much a problem?felix said:
The deaths are much better - improved treatments perhaps but mainly a much younger age profile for contagion so far. I worry that this could easily change as the numbers of cases grow. Also - the Spanish data is estimated to have undercounted deaths by around 20,000 overall so I would not be too trusting of the figures. I'm afraid the decision to go for a big tourist season at the last minute was, albeit understandable, a mistake. The Spanish nighlife is driving the figures on the costas now. My own tiny little tourist town has 25 new cases this w/e with more to follow. This was the first time the cumulative total had gone above 6 or 7!contrarian said:
Spanish deaths per day are still under 10 though, right? and have been for some timefelix said:
Correct - although ironically they got it right with Spain - the infection growth in many of the costas is quite rapid now. I am no longer convinced the authorities have got a handle on it.rcs1000 said:
The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:Richard_Nabavi said:It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.
There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.
Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.0 -
The problem is in those multi-generational households who don't hug - just share the same air.TOPPING said:
Surely if everyone then doesn't go and hug their grandparents the "much younger age profile" will mean that cases are simply not that much a problem?felix said:
The deaths are much better - improved treatments perhaps but mainly a much younger age profile for contagion so far. I worry that this could easily change as the numbers of cases grow. Also - the Spanish data is estimated to have undercounted deaths by around 20,000 overall so I would not be too trusting of the figures. I'm afraid the decision to go for a big tourist season at the last minute was, albeit understandable, a mistake. The Spanish nighlife is driving the figures on the costas now. My own tiny little tourist town has 25 new cases this w/e with more to follow. This was the first time the cumulative total had gone above 6 or 7!contrarian said:
Spanish deaths per day are still under 10 though, right? and have been for some timefelix said:
Correct - although ironically they got it right with Spain - the infection growth in many of the costas is quite rapid now. I am no longer convinced the authorities have got a handle on it.rcs1000 said:
The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:Richard_Nabavi said:It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.
There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.
Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.0 -
That's correct, initially.TOPPING said:
Surely if everyone then doesn't go and hug their grandparents the "much younger age profile" will mean that cases are simply not that much a problem?felix said:
The deaths are much better - improved treatments perhaps but mainly a much younger age profile for contagion so far. I worry that this could easily change as the numbers of cases grow. Also - the Spanish data is estimated to have undercounted deaths by around 20,000 overall so I would not be too trusting of the figures. I'm afraid the decision to go for a big tourist season at the last minute was, albeit understandable, a mistake. The Spanish nighlife is driving the figures on the costas now. My own tiny little tourist town has 25 new cases this w/e with more to follow. This was the first time the cumulative total had gone above 6 or 7!contrarian said:
Spanish deaths per day are still under 10 though, right? and have been for some timefelix said:
Correct - although ironically they got it right with Spain - the infection growth in many of the costas is quite rapid now. I am no longer convinced the authorities have got a handle on it.rcs1000 said:
The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:Richard_Nabavi said:It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.
There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.
Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.
But it's almost impossible to keep age groups truly separated. On Sunday, Junior comes home for dinner with his parents. Junior is presymptomatic and feels fine, but he might be highly contagious. He gives it to his 50 year old parents, who while also presymptomatic go and visit Granddad.
Result - Granddad gets it.0 -
Transmission is happening, it seems, *a lot* at gatherings in private.bigjohnowls said:
Thanks MalmesburyMalmesbury said:
Cases are rising.bigjohnowls said:
Do you think there is a trend?Malmesbury said:
Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.bigjohnowls said:
Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?Malmesbury said:England case numbers -
The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.
If so is it down, flat or rising?
Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.
If cases are rising, will Eat out to help out make matters significantly worse or have little impact in your opinion?
A commercial premises with actual distancing is probably safer.1 -
I think if people are aware of the risks then can we not leave it up to them? Do we know the number of such households in general?MarqueeMark said:
The problem is in those multi-generational households who don't hug - just share the same air.TOPPING said:
Surely if everyone then doesn't go and hug their grandparents the "much younger age profile" will mean that cases are simply not that much a problem?felix said:
The deaths are much better - improved treatments perhaps but mainly a much younger age profile for contagion so far. I worry that this could easily change as the numbers of cases grow. Also - the Spanish data is estimated to have undercounted deaths by around 20,000 overall so I would not be too trusting of the figures. I'm afraid the decision to go for a big tourist season at the last minute was, albeit understandable, a mistake. The Spanish nighlife is driving the figures on the costas now. My own tiny little tourist town has 25 new cases this w/e with more to follow. This was the first time the cumulative total had gone above 6 or 7!contrarian said:
Spanish deaths per day are still under 10 though, right? and have been for some timefelix said:
Correct - although ironically they got it right with Spain - the infection growth in many of the costas is quite rapid now. I am no longer convinced the authorities have got a handle on it.rcs1000 said:
The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:Richard_Nabavi said:It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.
There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.
Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.0 -
Spanish people love to give 'besos y abrazos' to family and friends.!TOPPING said:
Surely if everyone then doesn't go and hug their grandparents the "much younger age profile" will mean that cases are simply not that much a problem?felix said:
The deaths are much better - improved treatments perhaps but mainly a much younger age profile for contagion so far. I worry that this could easily change as the numbers of cases grow. Also - the Spanish data is estimated to have undercounted deaths by around 20,000 overall so I would not be too trusting of the figures. I'm afraid the decision to go for a big tourist season at the last minute was, albeit understandable, a mistake. The Spanish nighlife is driving the figures on the costas now. My own tiny little tourist town has 25 new cases this w/e with more to follow. This was the first time the cumulative total had gone above 6 or 7!contrarian said:
Spanish deaths per day are still under 10 though, right? and have been for some timefelix said:
Correct - although ironically they got it right with Spain - the infection growth in many of the costas is quite rapid now. I am no longer convinced the authorities have got a handle on it.rcs1000 said:
The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:Richard_Nabavi said:It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.
There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.
Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.0 -
It's too open to dispute. Who, or what mechanism, would make the decision? Does your wealth/income play any role? Or your race or gender or pre-existing conditions? Or your status as a celebrity/non-entity? Or your age? That last is difficult - the aged may not have many qualys left, but face the severest consequences. No, a purely random lottery seems to me the best way to allocate it if "fairness and equity" is the criterion. But as I said before, that should not be the approach, it should be solely focussed on containing the epidemic.TimT said:FPT @ geoffw
TimT said:
» show previous quotes
"That would bump me up the list, so perhaps I should agree.
"Seriously, Redfield's comment about it needing to be seen to be fair and equitable, not just efficient and effective, is a key point."
geoffw said
"Sorry to differ with you about that. It is easy to agree on the words "fair and equitable" but also easy to dispute any particular notion of what that entails in practice. I think the sole aim is to control the epidemic, both the severity and the spread. A corollary could be that if it threatens to rage in poor countries with deficient health systems, then they should perhaps be prioritised."
At some point lack of 'fair and equitable' impairs the performance of 'efficient and effective'.
0 -
https://espanadiario.net/amp/actualidad/datos-coronavirus-3-agosto-2020?fbclid=IwAR2RbvzWPLBw7H9lzGA_SM4isCoY76uO2Dhfhcb1nL8l-Lfbn2A_-clOdZc
8000+ new cases this w/e not counting Madrid, Catalonia and Navarra as they 'don't have those figures yet'!
Forget the second wave we may be on the second tide!0 -
Exactly what is happening in my local tourist hotspot Mojacar - they claim Disney was born here!rcs1000 said:
The problem is that when restrictions are lifted, (young) people don't slowly increase their social circle, they suddenly go and do all the things they weren't previously allowed to do.felix said:
The deaths are much better - improved treatments perhaps but mainly a much younger age profile for contagion so far. I worry that this could easily change as the numbers of cases grow. Also - the Spanish data is estimated to have undercounted deaths by around 20,000 overall so I would not be too trusting of the figures. I'm afraid the decision to go for a big tourist season at the last minute was, albeit understandable, a mistake. The Spanish nighlife is driving the figures on the costas now. My own tiny little tourist town has 25 new cases this w/e with more to follow. This was the first time the cumulative total had gone above 6 or 7!contrarian said:
Spanish deaths per day are still under 10 though, right? and have been for some timefelix said:
Correct - although ironically they got it right with Spain - the infection growth in many of the costas is quite rapid now. I am no longer convinced the authorities have got a handle on it.rcs1000 said:
The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:Richard_Nabavi said:It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.
There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.
Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.
They go to nightclubs and bars and socialise with their friends and have a great time, and suddenly you country doesn't have 1,000 people with CV19, it has 25,000.0 -
A shared space with 50 people socially distanced compared to a family home with 4 people not socially distanced? I would have thought generally the latter is safer. What do you think?RobD said:
Is transmission more likely in a place that enforces distancing compared to one that doesn't?bigjohnowls said:
Thanks MalmesburyMalmesbury said:
Cases are rising.bigjohnowls said:
Do you think there is a trend?Malmesbury said:
Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.bigjohnowls said:
Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?Malmesbury said:England case numbers -
The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.
If so is it down, flat or rising?
Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.
If cases are rising, will Eat out to help out make matters significantly worse or have little impact in your opinion?0 -
What has the testing incidence been like?felix said:https://espanadiario.net/amp/actualidad/datos-coronavirus-3-agosto-2020?fbclid=IwAR2RbvzWPLBw7H9lzGA_SM4isCoY76uO2Dhfhcb1nL8l-Lfbn2A_-clOdZc
8000+ new cases this w/e not counting Madrid, Catalonia and Navarra as they 'don't have those figures yet'!
Forget the second wave we may be on the second tide!0 -
Restaurants are typically seating 50 people at a time now? In any case, I would have thought the former was safer simply due to the distance. Meeting friends and family in your home without distancing seems far riskier. Isn't that the suspected cause of the outbreaks in the NW?bigjohnowls said:
A shared space with 50 people socially distanced compared to a family home with 4 people not socially distanced? I would have thought generally the latter is safer. What do you think?RobD said:
Is transmission more likely in a place that enforces distancing compared to one that doesn't?bigjohnowls said:
Thanks MalmesburyMalmesbury said:
Cases are rising.bigjohnowls said:
Do you think there is a trend?Malmesbury said:
Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.bigjohnowls said:
Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?Malmesbury said:England case numbers -
The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.
If so is it down, flat or rising?
Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.
If cases are rising, will Eat out to help out make matters significantly worse or have little impact in your opinion?0 -
Between 2005 and 2019 the Welsh Liberal Democrats lost almost exactly 164,000 voters (from 256,249 to 92,269) and all four of the seats they held. They went from a serious, nationwide force that spent time in government at Westminster and Cardiff level and was the second largest party by Westminster seats to a total irrelevance. Of the four seats they held, they are now second in just two, and a poor second at that. It is over five years since they won a seat at a general election - Ceredigion in 2015.rpjs said:
Liberalism in the very fringy bits of the Celtic Fringe is very ingrained. Orkney and Shetland will probably stay LD this side of a zombie apocalypse (although I dare say that's pencilled in for 2021) and every once in a while Ceredigion will go LD, and then back again.kle4 said:
I think to a degree that was inevitable, as a stop start kind of approach was not all that unexpected in a fast changing situation, especially one which, as rcs1000 notes, by the time you can see something it may be too late.Richard_Nabavi said:It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.
I was going to say the LDs seem to fading to nothing outside England, given it is bad in Wales too I believe, but it is not exactly a rosy picture there either. Not sure how the new leader could reverse that.StuartDickson said:Fantastic SCon figure in that Opinium, more than double SLab’s 14%.
Fieldwork prior to the Carlaw sacking, but still.
With the SLDs on a dire 1% (fairly typical in recent polls), the SCons have totally cornered the British nationalist vote.
https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/VI-30-07-2020-Data-Tables-1.xlsx
Do not assume they are coming back by an ineluctable swing of the pendulum from this collapse. They don't have the chapel vote to fall back on now - very few chapels survive at all in Wales - and the students and lecturers in Cardiff Central and Ceredigion have abandoned them.1 -
This has to rank as the biggest volte face on a political opponent since the American left canonised George W. Bush. Does anybody remember Hunt being described as "unflappable and diligent" during the doctor's strike?kinabalu said:if the Tory leadership run off had gone differently we could have had a PM with the perfect profile for this. An unflappable and diligent guy who was Health Secretary for 7 years.
0 -
Jess Philips hits the public mood again! And of course Malc G also. Apparently if you change MP to A former Scottish SNP leader the figures change again!No_Offence_Alan said:0 -
Brexit, obviously. If I remember correctly, the LDs' opposition to the Iraq war didn't help them at all at the time. It was only in later years, as disillusionment with the war grew, that they were able to capitalise on their opposition to it. I expect something similar with Brexit, so long as they have a decent leader (please let it be Davey!).rcs1000 said:
The LibDems need some sort of policy that is enthusiastically supported by about 15% of the population, but which is ignored by the other 85%. Opposition to the Iraq war in the mid-2000s was one example of this.kle4 said:I was going to say the LDs seem to fading to nothing outside England, given it is bad in Wales too I believe, but it is not exactly a rosy picture there either. Not sure how the new leader could reverse that.
In all likelihood something will come along - perhaps they end up being the lockdown-sceptics.0 -
I disagree. Surfaces less likely to be sanitised as regularly in a home setting, less ventilation in small living rooms, no social distancing = more chance of particulates being spread close to others.bigjohnowls said:
A shared space with 50 people socially distanced compared to a family home with 4 people not socially distanced? I would have thought generally the latter is safer. What do you think?RobD said:
Is transmission more likely in a place that enforces distancing compared to one that doesn't?bigjohnowls said:
Thanks MalmesburyMalmesbury said:
Cases are rising.bigjohnowls said:
Do you think there is a trend?Malmesbury said:
Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.bigjohnowls said:
Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?Malmesbury said:England case numbers -
The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.
If so is it down, flat or rising?
Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.
If cases are rising, will Eat out to help out make matters significantly worse or have little impact in your opinion?1 -
Testing has ramped up in recent weeks but a lot of it is in response to outbreaks and sadly therefore a bit too late!TOPPING said:
What has the testing incidence been like?felix said:https://espanadiario.net/amp/actualidad/datos-coronavirus-3-agosto-2020?fbclid=IwAR2RbvzWPLBw7H9lzGA_SM4isCoY76uO2Dhfhcb1nL8l-Lfbn2A_-clOdZc
8000+ new cases this w/e not counting Madrid, Catalonia and Navarra as they 'don't have those figures yet'!
Forget the second wave we may be on the second tide!0 -
Jeez, stay safe!felix said:https://espanadiario.net/amp/actualidad/datos-coronavirus-3-agosto-2020?fbclid=IwAR2RbvzWPLBw7H9lzGA_SM4isCoY76uO2Dhfhcb1nL8l-Lfbn2A_-clOdZc
8000+ new cases this w/e not counting Madrid, Catalonia and Navarra as they 'don't have those figures yet'!
Forget the second wave we may be on the second tide!
3 -
Yes we always need to know the testing because as was pointed out earlier on here, with the same testing regime we have now, earlier case incidence would have been astronomical.felix said:
Testing has ramped up in recent weeks but a lot of it is in response to outbreaks and sadly therefore a bit too late!TOPPING said:
What has the testing incidence been like?felix said:https://espanadiario.net/amp/actualidad/datos-coronavirus-3-agosto-2020?fbclid=IwAR2RbvzWPLBw7H9lzGA_SM4isCoY76uO2Dhfhcb1nL8l-Lfbn2A_-clOdZc
8000+ new cases this w/e not counting Madrid, Catalonia and Navarra as they 'don't have those figures yet'!
Forget the second wave we may be on the second tide!0 -
Easier said than done in Spanish families. And numbers in hospital/ICU are slowly heading up as well now. Hope I am wrong but fearing I'm not.TOPPING said:
Surely if everyone then doesn't go and hug their grandparents the "much younger age profile" will mean that cases are simply not that much a problem?felix said:
The deaths are much better - improved treatments perhaps but mainly a much younger age profile for contagion so far. I worry that this could easily change as the numbers of cases grow. Also - the Spanish data is estimated to have undercounted deaths by around 20,000 overall so I would not be too trusting of the figures. I'm afraid the decision to go for a big tourist season at the last minute was, albeit understandable, a mistake. The Spanish nighlife is driving the figures on the costas now. My own tiny little tourist town has 25 new cases this w/e with more to follow. This was the first time the cumulative total had gone above 6 or 7!contrarian said:
Spanish deaths per day are still under 10 though, right? and have been for some timefelix said:
Correct - although ironically they got it right with Spain - the infection growth in many of the costas is quite rapid now. I am no longer convinced the authorities have got a handle on it.rcs1000 said:
The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:Richard_Nabavi said:It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.
There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.
Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.0 -
-
Yes it's interesting. The govt is saying, effectively, you can't be trusted to keep yourselves safe so we will use administrative methods to do so.felix said:
Easier said than done in Spanish families. And numbers in hospital/ICU are slowly heading up as well now. Hope I am wrong but fearing I'm not.TOPPING said:
Surely if everyone then doesn't go and hug their grandparents the "much younger age profile" will mean that cases are simply not that much a problem?felix said:
The deaths are much better - improved treatments perhaps but mainly a much younger age profile for contagion so far. I worry that this could easily change as the numbers of cases grow. Also - the Spanish data is estimated to have undercounted deaths by around 20,000 overall so I would not be too trusting of the figures. I'm afraid the decision to go for a big tourist season at the last minute was, albeit understandable, a mistake. The Spanish nighlife is driving the figures on the costas now. My own tiny little tourist town has 25 new cases this w/e with more to follow. This was the first time the cumulative total had gone above 6 or 7!contrarian said:
Spanish deaths per day are still under 10 though, right? and have been for some timefelix said:
Correct - although ironically they got it right with Spain - the infection growth in many of the costas is quite rapid now. I am no longer convinced the authorities have got a handle on it.rcs1000 said:
The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:Richard_Nabavi said:It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.
There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.
Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.
Now it may well be that this is the right way to go about it. But some part of me thinks it is not a mode of government that I feel particularly happy or comfortable with.0 -
Hmmm. Our latest outbreak casued by poorly paid waiters all living together in crowded accommodation. Our, local Mayor seems not to have realised any of these facts in advance. Mojacar has been a tourist town since the 1960s and she's lived here her entire life - indeed her family are major local employers....RH1992 said:
I disagree. Surfaces less likely to be sanitised as regularly in a home setting, less ventilation in small living rooms, no social distancing = more chance of particulates being spread close to others.bigjohnowls said:
A shared space with 50 people socially distanced compared to a family home with 4 people not socially distanced? I would have thought generally the latter is safer. What do you think?RobD said:
Is transmission more likely in a place that enforces distancing compared to one that doesn't?bigjohnowls said:
Thanks MalmesburyMalmesbury said:
Cases are rising.bigjohnowls said:
Do you think there is a trend?Malmesbury said:
Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.bigjohnowls said:
Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?Malmesbury said:England case numbers -
The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.
If so is it down, flat or rising?
Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.
If cases are rising, will Eat out to help out make matters significantly worse or have little impact in your opinion?0 -
The problem is also bigger private gatherings than 4 people. Some people think that 25 people in the living room is how things should be...RH1992 said:
I disagree. Surfaces less likely to be sanitised as regularly in a home setting, less ventilation in small living rooms, no social distancing = more chance of particulates being spread close to others.bigjohnowls said:
A shared space with 50 people socially distanced compared to a family home with 4 people not socially distanced? I would have thought generally the latter is safer. What do you think?RobD said:
Is transmission more likely in a place that enforces distancing compared to one that doesn't?bigjohnowls said:
Thanks MalmesburyMalmesbury said:
Cases are rising.bigjohnowls said:
Do you think there is a trend?Malmesbury said:
Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.bigjohnowls said:
Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?Malmesbury said:England case numbers -
The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.
If so is it down, flat or rising?
Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.
If cases are rising, will Eat out to help out make matters significantly worse or have little impact in your opinion?0 -
I don't see how we square RCS's circle.
Even vaccines don;t prevent all deaths, old and vulnerable people still pass away in winter from flu and will from COVID.
We;re doomed to repeat this cycle until the economy collapses to such an extent that granny never gets to die of COVID, because she dies of undiagnosed cancer ten years earlier, or some other disease the health service of that country can no longer afford to treat because private sector revenues have evaporated.0 -
Doesn't that actually support the point that the household is riskier than the restaurant?felix said:
Hmmm. Our latest outbreak casued by poorly paid waiters all living together in crowded accommodation. Our, local Mayor seems not to have realised any of these facts in advance. Mojacar has been a tourist town since the 1960s and she's lived here her entire life - indeed her family are major local employers....RH1992 said:
I disagree. Surfaces less likely to be sanitised as regularly in a home setting, less ventilation in small living rooms, no social distancing = more chance of particulates being spread close to others.bigjohnowls said:
A shared space with 50 people socially distanced compared to a family home with 4 people not socially distanced? I would have thought generally the latter is safer. What do you think?RobD said:
Is transmission more likely in a place that enforces distancing compared to one that doesn't?bigjohnowls said:
Thanks MalmesburyMalmesbury said:
Cases are rising.bigjohnowls said:
Do you think there is a trend?Malmesbury said:
Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.bigjohnowls said:
Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?Malmesbury said:England case numbers -
The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.
If so is it down, flat or rising?
Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.
If cases are rising, will Eat out to help out make matters significantly worse or have little impact in your opinion?1 -
Oh my! Ohio Biden 46, Trump 42
https://www.toledoblade.com/local/politics/2020/08/03/2020-election-ohio-poll-trump-biden-voters-concerns/stories/202007281201 -
So the victim is (a) gullible, (b) not using a secured server, and (c) does not have multi-factor authentication (MFA) set up. Glad to see our National Cybersecurity Centre is earning its keep. I wonder how many Cabinet Ministers would hand over their passwords to anyone who phoned up claiming to be Dominic Cummings' new IT weirdo.Scott_xP said:4 -
I have been to Cineworld twice since they reopened.
Friday afternoon. 4 members of staff visible, all concessions except pick and mix open. No bookings at all except me. I was only customer in foyer and only one in the screening. When i came out one of staff told me 5 films that afternoon 4 customers in total.
This afternoon There were 3 advance bookings according to their booking screen. Nobody except me in the foyer which i sat in for 10 mins None of the other 2 who booked for unhinged turned up attended.
Have now been twice, not seen another customer perhaps its me that is "unhinged"
Oh and why on earth are Cineworld not participants in help out to eat out? Are they eligible?
RIP Cineworld.
Tomorrow our bubble has a table for 4 at our local HOTO Restaurant. We are 50/50 about cancelling tonight to give them chance to re sell the table. Or will it be empty like the Cinema?0 -
If it were a completely sealed 50 vs a completely sealed 4, I'd say you would be right. If not completely sealed, with people from the home leaving to do work or shopping etc..., I think the evidence is clearly that the home situation spreads it more.bigjohnowls said:
A shared space with 50 people socially distanced compared to a family home with 4 people not socially distanced? I would have thought generally the latter is safer. What do you think?RobD said:
Is transmission more likely in a place that enforces distancing compared to one that doesn't?bigjohnowls said:
Thanks MalmesburyMalmesbury said:
Cases are rising.bigjohnowls said:
Do you think there is a trend?Malmesbury said:
Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.bigjohnowls said:
Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?Malmesbury said:England case numbers -
The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.
If so is it down, flat or rising?
Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.
If cases are rising, will Eat out to help out make matters significantly worse or have little impact in your opinion?0 -
I remember Hunt being described as the Health Secretary who sat on the Cygnus report that warned of shortfalls in equipment to handle a pandemic.Chelyabinsk said:
This has to rank as the biggest volte face on a political opponent since the American left canonised George W. Bush. Does anybody remember Hunt being described as "unflappable and diligent" during the doctor's strike?kinabalu said:if the Tory leadership run off had gone differently we could have had a PM with the perfect profile for this. An unflappable and diligent guy who was Health Secretary for 7 years.
0 -
My local Odeon hasn't reopened yet, but I'd be worried - it was pretty empty a lot of the time anyway, despite the town being desperate for a cinema for 25 years.bigjohnowls said:I have been to Cineworld twice since they reopened.
Friday afternoon. 4 members of staff visible, all concessions except pick and mix open. No bookings at all except me. I was only customer in foyer and only one in the screening. When i came out one of staff told me 5 films that afternoon 4 customers in total.
This afternoon There were 3 advance bookings according to their booking screen. Nobody except me in the foyer which i sat in for 10 mins None of the other 2 who booked for unhinged turned up attended.
Have now been twice, not seen another customer perhaps its me that is "unhinged"
Oh and why on earth are Cineworld not participants in help out to eat out? Are they eligible?
RIP Cineworld.
Tomorrow our bubble has a table for 4 at our local HOTO Restaurant. We are 50/50 about cancelling tonight to give them chance to re sell the table. Or will it be empty like the Cinema?0 -
Oh sorry, yes I was disagreeing with the first one. I think. It's so hot here I need to hydrate!RobD said:
Doesn't that actually support the point that the household is riskier than the restaurant?felix said:
Hmmm. Our latest outbreak casued by poorly paid waiters all living together in crowded accommodation. Our, local Mayor seems not to have realised any of these facts in advance. Mojacar has been a tourist town since the 1960s and she's lived here her entire life - indeed her family are major local employers....RH1992 said:
I disagree. Surfaces less likely to be sanitised as regularly in a home setting, less ventilation in small living rooms, no social distancing = more chance of particulates being spread close to others.bigjohnowls said:
A shared space with 50 people socially distanced compared to a family home with 4 people not socially distanced? I would have thought generally the latter is safer. What do you think?RobD said:
Is transmission more likely in a place that enforces distancing compared to one that doesn't?bigjohnowls said:
Thanks MalmesburyMalmesbury said:
Cases are rising.bigjohnowls said:
Do you think there is a trend?Malmesbury said:
Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.bigjohnowls said:
Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?Malmesbury said:England case numbers -
The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.
If so is it down, flat or rising?
Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.
If cases are rising, will Eat out to help out make matters significantly worse or have little impact in your opinion?0 -
Again, the issue is when they go an do their shift in Tesco and end up infecting half of their colleagues. People can get it if they choose to, but they will end up infecting a lot of people who haven't made that choice and the result will be a second 3-5 week national lockdown.TOPPING said:
I think if people are aware of the risks then can we not leave it up to them? Do we know the number of such households in general?MarqueeMark said:
The problem is in those multi-generational households who don't hug - just share the same air.TOPPING said:
Surely if everyone then doesn't go and hug their grandparents the "much younger age profile" will mean that cases are simply not that much a problem?felix said:
The deaths are much better - improved treatments perhaps but mainly a much younger age profile for contagion so far. I worry that this could easily change as the numbers of cases grow. Also - the Spanish data is estimated to have undercounted deaths by around 20,000 overall so I would not be too trusting of the figures. I'm afraid the decision to go for a big tourist season at the last minute was, albeit understandable, a mistake. The Spanish nighlife is driving the figures on the costas now. My own tiny little tourist town has 25 new cases this w/e with more to follow. This was the first time the cumulative total had gone above 6 or 7!contrarian said:
Spanish deaths per day are still under 10 though, right? and have been for some timefelix said:
Correct - although ironically they got it right with Spain - the infection growth in many of the costas is quite rapid now. I am no longer convinced the authorities have got a handle on it.rcs1000 said:
The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:Richard_Nabavi said:It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.
There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.
Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.
I'm not a big nanny state type of person, however, in this instance the individual doesn't know best and the state does, even this one.1 -
The "hmm" was ambiguous enough, don't worry!felix said:
Oh sorry, yes I was disagreeing with the first one. I think. It's so hot here I need to hydrate!RobD said:
Doesn't that actually support the point that the household is riskier than the restaurant?felix said:
Hmmm. Our latest outbreak casued by poorly paid waiters all living together in crowded accommodation. Our, local Mayor seems not to have realised any of these facts in advance. Mojacar has been a tourist town since the 1960s and she's lived here her entire life - indeed her family are major local employers....RH1992 said:
I disagree. Surfaces less likely to be sanitised as regularly in a home setting, less ventilation in small living rooms, no social distancing = more chance of particulates being spread close to others.bigjohnowls said:
A shared space with 50 people socially distanced compared to a family home with 4 people not socially distanced? I would have thought generally the latter is safer. What do you think?RobD said:
Is transmission more likely in a place that enforces distancing compared to one that doesn't?bigjohnowls said:
Thanks MalmesburyMalmesbury said:
Cases are rising.bigjohnowls said:
Do you think there is a trend?Malmesbury said:
Well, the number for the 29th by specimen date - 925 is similar to mid June.bigjohnowls said:
Are todays number of new cases the highest since June?Malmesbury said:England case numbers -
The headline number is reporting date and is generally not worth bothering with.
If so is it down, flat or rising?
Using the headline number is for Piers Morgan.
If cases are rising, will Eat out to help out make matters significantly worse or have little impact in your opinion?0 -
That I suppose, as we all said right from the start, from before the start, that testing holds the key to the maintenance and survival of our economic health.MaxPB said:
Again, the issue is when they go an do their shift in Tesco and end up infecting half of their colleagues. People can get it if they choose to, but they will end up infecting a lot of people who haven't made that choice and the result will be a second 3-5 week national lockdown.TOPPING said:
I think if people are aware of the risks then can we not leave it up to them? Do we know the number of such households in general?MarqueeMark said:
The problem is in those multi-generational households who don't hug - just share the same air.TOPPING said:
Surely if everyone then doesn't go and hug their grandparents the "much younger age profile" will mean that cases are simply not that much a problem?felix said:
The deaths are much better - improved treatments perhaps but mainly a much younger age profile for contagion so far. I worry that this could easily change as the numbers of cases grow. Also - the Spanish data is estimated to have undercounted deaths by around 20,000 overall so I would not be too trusting of the figures. I'm afraid the decision to go for a big tourist season at the last minute was, albeit understandable, a mistake. The Spanish nighlife is driving the figures on the costas now. My own tiny little tourist town has 25 new cases this w/e with more to follow. This was the first time the cumulative total had gone above 6 or 7!contrarian said:
Spanish deaths per day are still under 10 though, right? and have been for some timefelix said:
Correct - although ironically they got it right with Spain - the infection growth in many of the costas is quite rapid now. I am no longer convinced the authorities have got a handle on it.rcs1000 said:
The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:Richard_Nabavi said:It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.
There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.
Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.
I'm not a big nanny state type of person, however, in this instance the individual doesn't know best and the state does, even this one.0 -
Thanks for the thoughtful response. We simply disagree. Whatever route is taken, the public as a whole must have faith in it. Not just parts of the public.geoffw said:
It's too open to dispute. Who, or what mechanism, would make the decision? Does your wealth/income play any role? Or your race or gender or pre-existing conditions? Or your status as a celebrity/non-entity? Or your age? That last is difficult - the aged may not have many qualys left, but face the severest consequences. No, a purely random lottery seems to me the best way to allocate it if "fairness and equity" is the criterion. But as I said before, that should not be the approach, it should be solely focussed on containing the epidemic.TimT said:FPT @ geoffw
TimT said:
» show previous quotes
"That would bump me up the list, so perhaps I should agree.
"Seriously, Redfield's comment about it needing to be seen to be fair and equitable, not just efficient and effective, is a key point."
geoffw said
"Sorry to differ with you about that. It is easy to agree on the words "fair and equitable" but also easy to dispute any particular notion of what that entails in practice. I think the sole aim is to control the epidemic, both the severity and the spread. A corollary could be that if it threatens to rage in poor countries with deficient health systems, then they should perhaps be prioritised."
At some point lack of 'fair and equitable' impairs the performance of 'efficient and effective'.
In practice, I don't think our philosophical difference in approach would actually turn out that different in who gets it when.1 -
Yes, I'm very interested to see what this new 90 minute test is all about. It could end be the difference with returning to mostly normal life for a vast majority of people and this half life until the vaccine comes. Even then, I think track and trace is a hugely important part of this and our track and trace system is rubbish, incedental meetings between strangers aren't tracked and people who break the rules are unwilling to share who else broke the rules with them to tracers so there is a gap in the testing regime.TOPPING said:
That I suppose, as we all said right from the start, from before the start, that testing holds the key to the maintenance and survival of our economic health.MaxPB said:
Again, the issue is when they go an do their shift in Tesco and end up infecting half of their colleagues. People can get it if they choose to, but they will end up infecting a lot of people who haven't made that choice and the result will be a second 3-5 week national lockdown.TOPPING said:
I think if people are aware of the risks then can we not leave it up to them? Do we know the number of such households in general?MarqueeMark said:
The problem is in those multi-generational households who don't hug - just share the same air.TOPPING said:
Surely if everyone then doesn't go and hug their grandparents the "much younger age profile" will mean that cases are simply not that much a problem?felix said:
The deaths are much better - improved treatments perhaps but mainly a much younger age profile for contagion so far. I worry that this could easily change as the numbers of cases grow. Also - the Spanish data is estimated to have undercounted deaths by around 20,000 overall so I would not be too trusting of the figures. I'm afraid the decision to go for a big tourist season at the last minute was, albeit understandable, a mistake. The Spanish nighlife is driving the figures on the costas now. My own tiny little tourist town has 25 new cases this w/e with more to follow. This was the first time the cumulative total had gone above 6 or 7!contrarian said:
Spanish deaths per day are still under 10 though, right? and have been for some timefelix said:
Correct - although ironically they got it right with Spain - the infection growth in many of the costas is quite rapid now. I am no longer convinced the authorities have got a handle on it.rcs1000 said:
The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:Richard_Nabavi said:It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.
There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.
Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.
I'm not a big nanny state type of person, however, in this instance the individual doesn't know best and the state does, even this one.0 -
A friend went to Kew Gardens the other day and was asked for their number/details. They said no. Going to a pub and being contacted is one thing but to be potentially locked down because someone an acre away tests positive is going to be challenging to agree to.MaxPB said:
Yes, I'm very interested to see what this new 90 minute test is all about. It could end be the difference with returning to mostly normal life for a vast majority of people and this half life until the vaccine comes. Even then, I think track and trace is a hugely important part of this and our track and trace system is rubbish, incedental meetings between strangers aren't tracked and people who break the rules are unwilling to share who else broke the rules with them to tracers so there is a gap in the testing regime.TOPPING said:
That I suppose, as we all said right from the start, from before the start, that testing holds the key to the maintenance and survival of our economic health.MaxPB said:
Again, the issue is when they go an do their shift in Tesco and end up infecting half of their colleagues. People can get it if they choose to, but they will end up infecting a lot of people who haven't made that choice and the result will be a second 3-5 week national lockdown.TOPPING said:
I think if people are aware of the risks then can we not leave it up to them? Do we know the number of such households in general?MarqueeMark said:
The problem is in those multi-generational households who don't hug - just share the same air.TOPPING said:
Surely if everyone then doesn't go and hug their grandparents the "much younger age profile" will mean that cases are simply not that much a problem?felix said:
The deaths are much better - improved treatments perhaps but mainly a much younger age profile for contagion so far. I worry that this could easily change as the numbers of cases grow. Also - the Spanish data is estimated to have undercounted deaths by around 20,000 overall so I would not be too trusting of the figures. I'm afraid the decision to go for a big tourist season at the last minute was, albeit understandable, a mistake. The Spanish nighlife is driving the figures on the costas now. My own tiny little tourist town has 25 new cases this w/e with more to follow. This was the first time the cumulative total had gone above 6 or 7!contrarian said:
Spanish deaths per day are still under 10 though, right? and have been for some timefelix said:
Correct - although ironically they got it right with Spain - the infection growth in many of the costas is quite rapid now. I am no longer convinced the authorities have got a handle on it.rcs1000 said:
The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:Richard_Nabavi said:It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.
There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.
Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.
I'm not a big nanny state type of person, however, in this instance the individual doesn't know best and the state does, even this one.1 -
On how to distribute a vaccine it should be given to economically productive middle aged people first and then the economically productive young with the second batch. Ensuring those who are most likely to get and therefore spread it will minimise the chances of another mass outbreak. I'd suggest that older people should be close to last in line as they will benefit from herd immunity and there will be less chance of side effects becoming severe.
I'm sure if the government pursue this strategy reams of paper and petabytes of internet traffic will be dedicated to how callous the approach is and how the government are abandoning vulnerable people but with a limited supply the economy takes priority.0 -
Yes absolutely agreed, I don't see any mileage in asking for details at somewhere like Kew Gardens though unless they went to the restaurant. It's gigantic and almost all outdoors.TOPPING said:
A friend went to Kew Gardens the other day and was asked for their number/details. They said no. Going to a pub and being contacted is one thing but to be potentially locked down because someone an acre away tests positive is going to be challenging to agree to.MaxPB said:
Yes, I'm very interested to see what this new 90 minute test is all about. It could end be the difference with returning to mostly normal life for a vast majority of people and this half life until the vaccine comes. Even then, I think track and trace is a hugely important part of this and our track and trace system is rubbish, incedental meetings between strangers aren't tracked and people who break the rules are unwilling to share who else broke the rules with them to tracers so there is a gap in the testing regime.TOPPING said:
That I suppose, as we all said right from the start, from before the start, that testing holds the key to the maintenance and survival of our economic health.MaxPB said:
Again, the issue is when they go an do their shift in Tesco and end up infecting half of their colleagues. People can get it if they choose to, but they will end up infecting a lot of people who haven't made that choice and the result will be a second 3-5 week national lockdown.TOPPING said:
I think if people are aware of the risks then can we not leave it up to them? Do we know the number of such households in general?MarqueeMark said:
The problem is in those multi-generational households who don't hug - just share the same air.TOPPING said:
Surely if everyone then doesn't go and hug their grandparents the "much younger age profile" will mean that cases are simply not that much a problem?felix said:
The deaths are much better - improved treatments perhaps but mainly a much younger age profile for contagion so far. I worry that this could easily change as the numbers of cases grow. Also - the Spanish data is estimated to have undercounted deaths by around 20,000 overall so I would not be too trusting of the figures. I'm afraid the decision to go for a big tourist season at the last minute was, albeit understandable, a mistake. The Spanish nighlife is driving the figures on the costas now. My own tiny little tourist town has 25 new cases this w/e with more to follow. This was the first time the cumulative total had gone above 6 or 7!contrarian said:
Spanish deaths per day are still under 10 though, right? and have been for some timefelix said:
Correct - although ironically they got it right with Spain - the infection growth in many of the costas is quite rapid now. I am no longer convinced the authorities have got a handle on it.rcs1000 said:
The other problem is one that is all too often missed, both on here and in the wider world:Richard_Nabavi said:It's not so much that the easing is too fast or too slow, but that it is too jerky and badly explained.
There's usually a ten to fourteen day gap between infection and diagnosis.
Add to this the fact that people are most infectious before they show symptoms, and you have a recipe for decision making (and judging) that happens with eyes fixed firmly on the rear view mirror.
I'm not a big nanny state type of person, however, in this instance the individual doesn't know best and the state does, even this one.0
This discussion has been closed.