I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
Orange Co has 88 zip codes. And while $90k in indeed a high level of median household income, there is also a pretty wide inequality gap between richer & poorer residents.
As these groups will tend to balance each other, think middle-income suburban voters will be decisive in OC as across US.
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
If they are giving it only to those who have pension credit, there seems no need for them to see bank statements. Proof of eligibility for pension credit should be enough and although I don’t know much about it I presume that’s easy enough to provide.
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
Orange Co has 88 zip codes. And while $90k in indeed a high level of median household income, there is also a pretty wide inequality gap between richer & poorer residents.
As these groups will tend to balance each other, think middle-income suburban voters will be decisive in OC as across US.
In 2011 Orange County had the 64th highest average household income in the US by county out of 3411 counties in total. Putting it comfortably in the top 5% of the richest US counties
Big change in the age profile of detected cases....
The question is why that change? Old people all in hiding? Or are we just finding the younger people with the virus?
Perhaps it is no longer circulating in nursing homes any more?
FWIW, my understanding is that deaths in nursing homes as well as hospitals in England and Wales have been below the five-year average for some weeks. Excess deaths are now accounted for entirely by those expiring in private residences.
Hmmmm
Imagine a cultural group, where the elderly moving to a nursing home is a non-starter. Instead, they live in the same house - aka multi-generational living.
So they die at home, when they die.
Possibly, but to assess that theory we would need to know the geographic distribution of excess deaths in the home. If it is evenly spread then that suggests the main problem may be with people dying of other treatable conditions due to the health service prioritising Covid and/or patients still being too frightened to seek medical attention.
If, on the other hand, it's slanted towards localities that are also subject to special restrictions or under threat of them, well...
Excess deaths in Fance correlate strongly by Department, with confirmed Covid-19 deaths.
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
Median household income of $90k. Don’t know the nationwide stats but that seems solidly prosperous to me
Median US household income is $74 000, so Orange County is well above average income even if not all super rich like Newport Beach
- Deaths are falling - Hospitalisations are falling - Numbers in hospital are falling - Cases are increasing
Can anyone suggest an alternative explanation to this -
We are seeing better targeted testing finding more mild/asymptomatic cases?
The pessimistic version is cases rising is the first sign that the relaxation of lockdown has gone too far and the other indicators will start edging up in a few days.
I’m hoping you are right.
Cases have been slowly rising for a month
Yet at the same time, the other indicators have continued to fall.
So, if we are not seeing detection of less serious cases, how does this make sense?
Track and trace is working well?
Maybe the virus is getting slightly weaker An Italian doctor suggested it a few weeks ago
Accused - whip suspended May needed his vote - whip restored Convicted - whip withdrawn
Unedifying, but just politics
Only Tories would stoop to such levels of depravity
Assuming you are referring to the temporary restoration of the whip I’d say that most politicians are shits and almost all would give someone the whip back if it secured a vote at a critical moment.
Um. Tulips perhaps not being tiptoed through with sufficient care in the above - though perhaps tangential to the point?
Given that Charlie Elphicke stopped being an MP in December 2019, the Whip was not withdrawn in July 2020 when he was convicted.
Natalie Elphicke was the Dover MP from the 2019 Election.
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
The MEDIAN income in OC is $90k...
The position than the Nixon family takes will have much more impact on the vote than your nationwide polling report from a few weeks ago
The Nixon family will not make much difference to the OC vote now beyond a few ageing GOP activists and donors there
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
Orange Co has 88 zip codes. And while $90k in indeed a high level of median household income, there is also a pretty wide inequality gap between richer & poorer residents.
As these groups will tend to balance each other, think middle-income suburban voters will be decisive in OC as across US.
In 2011 Orange County had the 64th highest average household income in the US by county out of 3411 counties in total. Putting it comfortably in the top 5% of the richest US counties
True - and this list is filled with counties that were once Republican strongholds BUT have been trending Democratic for some time - a trend that Trumpsky did NOT cause but has accelerated.
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
Median household income of $90k. Don’t know the nationwide stats but that seems solidly prosperous to me
Median US household income is $74 000, so Orange County is well above average income even if not all super rich like Newport Beach
Newport Coast is far smarter, Palos Verdes more glamorous and Laguna Beach classier.
Newport Coast and Laguna Beach may be more old money and more comfortable for an Old Etonian like your good self than trashier new money Newport Beach but the polling I referred to just looked at income received not how old it was
If they are giving it only to those who have pension credit, there seems no need for them to see bank statements. Proof of eligibility for pension credit should be enough and although I don’t know much about it I presume that’s easy enough to provide.
The BBC have upset a lot of pensioners, over 11,000 alone are needed to just pay for Lineker.
It will fester for years and not to the BBC's benefit
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
The MEDIAN income in OC is $90k...
The position than the Nixon family takes will have much more impact on the vote than your nationwide polling report from a few weeks ago
The Nixon family will not make much difference to the OC vote now beyond a few ageing GOP activists and donors there
What is your basis for that confident assertion?
There are 3 million people in OC, half of them not even born when Nixon was president
If he faces defeat, I wonder if Trump will turn out to be the monstrous, Nero-like figure for the fate of the US that is increasingly imagined, or whether he will simply turn away and start to curate his own myth and legend of the why election was stolen from him. There seems to be a pattern where he thrives on victimhood and self-righteousness more than the responsibility of the most spectacularly kind of destructive action, which he so often promises.
In fact he's seemingly shied away from several such 'peak' actions so far, on Iran, Korea, the demonstrations, and much else. So far.
Trump needs a legacy for good or for worse. Crashing the Constitution would get him into the history books.
As they said in 2016, it was an historic election whoever won:
The Brits have already had a female PM, a Jewish PM, a Canadian PM... Latino not so much of a thing over her but I guess Philip of Spain or Catherine of Braganza might count
Isn’t the Queen descended from Spanish royalty?
Yes but would be a stretch to call her Hispanic. She’s also descended from Mohammed, but I don’t think the Arabs see her as one of theirs!
She’s also descended from Fergus the Great, but the Irish and Scots don’t see her as one of ours.
She’s regarded with more affection that you think, you old grump
In that case, Scots are world-champions at hiding their true emotions.
Nope, doesn’t compute for me either.
There is ***POLLING*** evidence that SD is right.
The Scots are less royalist than most of the UK - including rather surprisingly NI (where you'd expect a built-in handicap).
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
Orange Co has 88 zip codes. And while $90k in indeed a high level of median household income, there is also a pretty wide inequality gap between richer & poorer residents.
As these groups will tend to balance each other, think middle-income suburban voters will be decisive in OC as across US.
In 2011 Orange County had the 64th highest average household income in the US by county out of 3411 counties in total. Putting it comfortably in the top 5% of the richest US counties
True - and this list is filled with counties that were once Republican strongholds BUT have been trending Democratic for some time - a trend that Trumpsky did NOT cause but has accelerated.
So wither OC? We shall see!
I don't think Trump will win OC by a landslide as he will counties in West Virginia for example but he will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 is all I am saying
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
Orange Co has 88 zip codes. And while $90k in indeed a high level of median household income, there is also a pretty wide inequality gap between richer & poorer residents.
As these groups will tend to balance each other, think middle-income suburban voters will be decisive in OC as across US.
In 2011 Orange County had the 64th highest average household income in the US by county out of 3411 counties in total. Putting it comfortably in the top 5% of the richest US counties
True - and this list is filled with counties that were once Republican strongholds BUT have been trending Democratic for some time - a trend that Trumpsky did NOT cause but has accelerated.
So wither OC? We shall see!
I handicap the national as follows -
Trump easy 5% Trump close 15% Biden close 30% Biden easy 50%
- Deaths are falling - Hospitalisations are falling - Numbers in hospital are falling - Cases are increasing
Can anyone suggest an alternative explanation to this -
We are seeing better targeted testing finding more mild/asymptomatic cases?
The pessimistic version is cases rising is the first sign that the relaxation of lockdown has gone too far and the other indicators will start edging up in a few days.
I’m hoping you are right.
Cases have been slowly rising for a month
Yet at the same time, the other indicators have continued to fall.
So, if we are not seeing detection of less serious cases, how does this make sense?
Track and trace is working well?
Maybe the virus is getting slightly weaker An Italian doctor suggested it a few weeks ago
Age profile of cases seems to be part of the answer
If they are giving it only to those who have pension credit, there seems no need for them to see bank statements. Proof of eligibility for pension credit should be enough and although I don’t know much about it I presume that’s easy enough to provide.
The BBC have upset a lot if pensioners, over 11,000 alone are needed to just pay for Lineker.
It will fester for years and not to the BBC's benefit
The BBC is unsustainable in its present form. The only live BBC TV I watch now is the snooker. Yet I still have to pay the BBC to watch cricket on Sky.
That model won’t survive ten years of live-streaming sport on Youtube.
Something will have to change. Ultimately, the BBC is what will have to go. It might survive as a subscription service. Otherwise, it will vanish altogether.
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
Orange Co has 88 zip codes. And while $90k in indeed a high level of median household income, there is also a pretty wide inequality gap between richer & poorer residents.
As these groups will tend to balance each other, think middle-income suburban voters will be decisive in OC as across US.
In 2011 Orange County had the 64th highest average household income in the US by county out of 3411 counties in total. Putting it comfortably in the top 5% of the richest US counties
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
Orange Co has 88 zip codes. And while $90k in indeed a high level of median household income, there is also a pretty wide inequality gap between richer & poorer residents.
As these groups will tend to balance each other, think middle-income suburban voters will be decisive in OC as across US.
In 2011 Orange County had the 64th highest average household income in the US by county out of 3411 counties in total. Putting it comfortably in the top 5% of the richest US counties
If he faces defeat, I wonder if Trump will turn out to be the monstrous, Nero-like figure for the fate of the US that is increasingly imagined, or whether he will simply turn away and start to curate his own myth and legend of the why election was stolen from him. There seems to be a pattern where he thrives on victimhood and self-righteousness more than the responsibility of the most spectacularly kind of destructive action, which he so often promises.
In fact he's seemingly shied away from several such 'peak' actions so far, on Iran, Korea, the demonstrations, and much else. So far.
Trump needs a legacy for good or for worse. Crashing the Constitution would get him into the history books.
As they said in 2016, it was an historic election whoever won:
The Brits have already had a female PM, a Jewish PM, a Canadian PM... Latino not so much of a thing over her but I guess Philip of Spain or Catherine of Braganza might count
Isn’t the Queen descended from Spanish royalty?
Yes but would be a stretch to call her Hispanic. She’s also descended from Mohammed, but I don’t think the Arabs see her as one of theirs!
She’s also descended from Fergus the Great, but the Irish and Scots don’t see her as one of ours.
She’s regarded with more affection that you think, you old grump
In that case, Scots are world-champions at hiding their true emotions.
Nope, doesn’t compute for me either.
There is ***POLLING*** evidence that SD is right.
The Scots are less royalist than most of the UK - including rather surprisingly NI (where you'd expect a built-in handicap).
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
Median household income of $90k. Don’t know the nationwide stats but that seems solidly prosperous to me
Median US household income is $74 000, so Orange County is well above average income even if not all super rich like Newport Beach
Newport Coast is far smarter, Palos Verdes more glamorous and Laguna Beach classier.
Newport Coast and Laguna Beach may be more old money and more comfortable for an Old Etonian like your good self than trashed new money Newport Beach but the polling I referred to just looked at income received not how old it was
C, while back you mentioned dating the Danish woman with family castle in Estonia. Well, MANY years ago yours truly had a date with a young woman from Palos Verdes whose family had ancestral castle that was just inside East Germany.
We were both freshman at Ohio University, in same class. She was lovely & radiated class, and I shocked myself by asking her to dinner, and she shocked me by accepting.
Took her to the finest restaurant in Athens, Ohio which I quickly realized was NOT going to impress her. Nor did yours truly at close quarters, and turned out we had little in common besides being at same school & in same class. But was still an interesting experience, and worth every penny . . . though did have to economize for some time . . .
Accused - whip suspended May needed his vote - whip restored Convicted - whip withdrawn
Unedifying, but just politics
Only Tories would stoop to such levels of depravity
Assuming you are referring to the temporary restoration of the whip I’d say that most politicians are shits and almost all would give someone the whip back if it secured a vote at a critical moment.
Um. Tulips perhaps not being tiptoed through with sufficient care in the above - though perhaps tangential to the point?
Given that Charlie Elphicke stopped being an MP in December 2019, the Whip was not withdrawn in July 2020 when he was convicted.
Natalie Elphicke was the Dover MP from the 2019 Election.
I was basing the timeline on what someone else posted up thread.
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
Median household income of $90k. Don’t know the nationwide stats but that seems solidly prosperous to me
Median US household income is $74 000, so Orange County is well above average income even if not all super rich like Newport Beach
Newport Coast is far smarter, Palos Verdes more glamorous and Laguna Beach classier.
Newport Coast and Laguna Beach may be more old money and more comfortable for an Old Etonian like your good self than trashier new money Newport Beach but the polling I referred to just looked at income received not how old it was
The “super rich” don’t live in Newport Beach. Their teenage kids hang out there when they want a good time
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
The MEDIAN income in OC is $90k...
The position than the Nixon family takes will have much more impact on the vote than your nationwide polling report from a few weeks ago
The Nixon family will not make much difference to the OC vote now beyond a few ageing GOP activists and donors there
What is your basis for that confident assertion?
There are 3 million people in OC, half of them not even born when Nixon was president
The Nixons have huge influence over the GOP organisation
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
Orange Co has 88 zip codes. And while $90k in indeed a high level of median household income, there is also a pretty wide inequality gap between richer & poorer residents.
As these groups will tend to balance each other, think middle-income suburban voters will be decisive in OC as across US.
In 2011 Orange County had the 64th highest average household income in the US by county out of 3411 counties in total. Putting it comfortably in the top 5% of the richest US counties
10 of the top 25 counties are the MV burbs of the DMV (District of Columbia, Maryland, Virginia).
These averages don't give the true picture though. Fairfax and Montgomery are by far the richest two counties in the DMV, but they come 3rd and 17th respectively because of their much larger populations, including densely populated towns for lower income residents.
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
Median household income of $90k. Don’t know the nationwide stats but that seems solidly prosperous to me
Median US household income is $74 000, so Orange County is well above average income even if not all super rich like Newport Beach
Newport Coast is far smarter, Palos Verdes more glamorous and Laguna Beach classier.
Newport Coast and Laguna Beach may be more old money and more comfortable for an Old Etonian like your good self than trashier new money Newport Beach but the polling I referred to just looked at income received not how old it was
The “super rich” don’t live in Newport Beach. Their teenage kids hang out there when they want a good time
Don't suppose any of these supers have got a spare beach house OR need a semi-reputable mansion-sitter? OR a resident psephologist?
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
Median household income of $90k. Don’t know the nationwide stats but that seems solidly prosperous to me
Median US household income is $74 000, so Orange County is well above average income even if not all super rich like Newport Beach
Newport Coast is far smarter, Palos Verdes more glamorous and Laguna Beach classier.
Newport Coast and Laguna Beach may be more old money and more comfortable for an Old Etonian like your good self than trashed new money Newport Beach but the polling I referred to just looked at income received not how old it was
C, while back you mentioned dating the Danish woman with family castle in Estonia. Well, MANY years ago yours truly had a date with a young woman from Palos Verdes whose family had ancestral castle that was just inside East Germany.
We were both freshman at Ohio University, in same class. She was lovely & radiated class, and I shocked myself by asking her to dinner, and she shocked me by accepting.
Took her to the finest restaurant in Athens, Ohio which I quickly realized was NOT going to impress her. Nor did yours truly at close quarters, and turned out we had little in common besides being at same school & in same class. But was still an interesting experience, and worth every penny . . . though did have to economize for some time . . .
It was only after leaving business school (INSEAD) that I realized that about 20% of my classmates were super rich. Oblivious. That's me.
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
Orange Co has 88 zip codes. And while $90k in indeed a high level of median household income, there is also a pretty wide inequality gap between richer & poorer residents.
As these groups will tend to balance each other, think middle-income suburban voters will be decisive in OC as across US.
In 2011 Orange County had the 64th highest average household income in the US by county out of 3411 counties in total. Putting it comfortably in the top 5% of the richest US counties
True - and this list is filled with counties that were once Republican strongholds BUT have been trending Democratic for some time - a trend that Trumpsky did NOT cause but has accelerated.
So wither OC? We shall see!
I handicap the national as follows -
Trump easy 5% Trump close 15% Biden close 30% Biden easy 50%
How close (or not) are you to that?
Personally think it will be closer than you suggest, with Biden winning by clear margin but NOT a landslide.
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
Median household income of $90k. Don’t know the nationwide stats but that seems solidly prosperous to me
Median US household income is $74 000, so Orange County is well above average income even if not all super rich like Newport Beach
Newport Coast is far smarter, Palos Verdes more glamorous and Laguna Beach classier.
Newport Coast and Laguna Beach may be more old money and more comfortable for an Old Etonian like your good self than trashier new money Newport Beach but the polling I referred to just looked at income received not how old it was
The “super rich” don’t live in Newport Beach. Their teenage kids hang out there when they want a good time
Don't suppose any of these supers have got a spare beach house OR need a semi-reputable mansion-sitter? OR a resident psephologist?
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
Median household income of $90k. Don’t know the nationwide stats but that seems solidly prosperous to me
Median US household income is $74 000, so Orange County is well above average income even if not all super rich like Newport Beach
Newport Coast is far smarter, Palos Verdes more glamorous and Laguna Beach classier.
Newport Coast and Laguna Beach may be more old money and more comfortable for an Old Etonian like your good self than trashier new money Newport Beach but the polling I referred to just looked at income received not how old it was
The “super rich” don’t live in Newport Beach. Their teenage kids hang out there when they want a good time
The median house price in Newport Beach is over $2 million, seems pretty super rich to me
If he faces defeat, I wonder if Trump will turn out to be the monstrous, Nero-like figure for the fate of the US that is increasingly imagined, or whether he will simply turn away and start to curate his own myth and legend of the why election was stolen from him. There seems to be a pattern where he thrives on victimhood and self-righteousness more than the responsibility of the most spectacularly kind of destructive action, which he so often promises.
In fact he's seemingly shied away from several such 'peak' actions so far, on Iran, Korea, the demonstrations, and much else. So far.
Trump needs a legacy for good or for worse. Crashing the Constitution would get him into the history books.
As they said in 2016, it was an historic election whoever won:
The Brits have already had a female PM, a Jewish PM, a Canadian PM... Latino not so much of a thing over her but I guess Philip of Spain or Catherine of Braganza might count
Isn’t the Queen descended from Spanish royalty?
Yes but would be a stretch to call her Hispanic. She’s also descended from Mohammed, but I don’t think the Arabs see her as one of theirs!
She’s also descended from Fergus the Great, but the Irish and Scots don’t see her as one of ours.
She’s regarded with more affection that you think, you old grump
In that case, Scots are world-champions at hiding their true emotions.
Nope, doesn’t compute for me either.
There is ***POLLING*** evidence that SD is right.
The Scots are less royalist than most of the UK - including rather surprisingly NI (where you'd expect a built-in handicap).
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
Median household income of $90k. Don’t know the nationwide stats but that seems solidly prosperous to me
Median US household income is $74 000, so Orange County is well above average income even if not all super rich like Newport Beach
Newport Coast is far smarter, Palos Verdes more glamorous and Laguna Beach classier.
Newport Coast and Laguna Beach may be more old money and more comfortable for an Old Etonian like your good self than trashier new money Newport Beach but the polling I referred to just looked at income received not how old it was
The “super rich” don’t live in Newport Beach. Their teenage kids hang out there when they want a good time
The median house price in Newport Beach is over $2 million, seems pretty super rich to me
$2m is not super rich territory for housing in the US, believe you me. I sold a house I built on a lot smaller than our indoor arena for close to that . That is just nice DC burbs bog standard. Hate to think what little you'd get for that in parts of California.
If they are giving it only to those who have pension credit, there seems no need for them to see bank statements. Proof of eligibility for pension credit should be enough and although I don’t know much about it I presume that’s easy enough to provide.
The BBC have upset a lot if pensioners, over 11,000 alone are needed to just pay for Lineker.
It will fester for years and not to the BBC's benefit
The BBC is unsustainable in its present form. The only live BBC TV I watch now is the snooker. Yet I still have to pay the BBC to watch cricket on Sky.
That model won’t survive ten years of live-streaming sport on Youtube.
Something will have to change. Ultimately, the BBC is what will have to go. It might survive as a subscription service. Otherwise, it will vanish altogether.
Live sport is the only thing a huge number of people watch live on TV any more.
If sport starts to move to online platforms, many people will just have a big smart TV with a network cable in the back, no licence fee and no sky box.
Accused - whip suspended May needed his vote - whip restored Convicted - whip withdrawn
Unedifying, but just politics
Only Tories would stoop to such levels of depravity
Assuming you are referring to the temporary restoration of the whip I’d say that most politicians are shits and almost all would give someone the whip back if it secured a vote at a critical moment.
Um. Tulips perhaps not being tiptoed through with sufficient care in the above - though perhaps tangential to the point?
Given that Charlie Elphicke stopped being an MP in December 2019, the Whip was not withdrawn in July 2020 when he was convicted.
Natalie Elphicke was the Dover MP from the 2019 Election.
I was basing the timeline on what someone else posted up thread.
I was referring to the entire thread - not targetted at any one particular. Apologies if I was unclear.
Just remembering what happened to Katie H for a twitter mistake lasting a couple of hours.
BREAKING: Major incident declared as Greater Manchester Coronavirus rates continue to rise
EXCLUSIVE: New data shows numbers still climbing, with particularly big spikes in Manchester, Tameside and Oldham
....Insiders say the continued increases are not related to Eid, which only began on Friday so cannot realistically have contributed to the rise.
One said mosques have been compliant with the new measures and that the rise is down to continued household transmission across all communities, as well as younger people not observing social distancing measures.
In Manchester, the highest number of cases is understood to be in Crumpsall.
Hospital admissions are said to remain stable regionwide, however, with one official describing them as ‘really low across GM’.
“It’s younger people now, and not ill enough to be in hospital,” they said of those testing positive.
Interesting there have been problems in both Manchester and Leicester, but not Birmingham. Maybe proof that Brummies aren't as thick as people like to think.
This article in today's Sunday Times says they are expecting a new Covid-19 tsunami in Birmingham
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
Median household income of $90k. Don’t know the nationwide stats but that seems solidly prosperous to me
Median US household income is $74 000, so Orange County is well above average income even if not all super rich like Newport Beach
Newport Coast is far smarter, Palos Verdes more glamorous and Laguna Beach classier.
Newport Coast and Laguna Beach may be more old money and more comfortable for an Old Etonian like your good self than trashier new money Newport Beach but the polling I referred to just looked at income received not how old it was
The “super rich” don’t live in Newport Beach. Their teenage kids hang out there when they want a good time
Don't suppose any of these supers have got a spare beach house OR need a semi-reputable mansion-sitter? OR a resident psephologist?
A lot will fall into the first category 😂
Would be willing to share. Especially with kind-hearted AND near-sighted widows, au pairs, personal coaches, etc., etc.
Big change in the age profile of detected cases....
The question is why that change? Old people all in hiding? Or are we just finding the younger people with the virus?
Perhaps it is no longer circulating in nursing homes any more?
FWIW, my understanding is that deaths in nursing homes as well as hospitals in England and Wales have been below the five-year average for some weeks. Excess deaths are now accounted for entirely by those expiring in private residences.
Hmmmm
Imagine a cultural group, where the elderly moving to a nursing home is a non-starter. Instead, they live in the same house - aka multi-generational living.
So they die at home, when they die.
Possibly, but to assess that theory we would need to know the geographic distribution of excess deaths in the home. If it is evenly spread then that suggests the main problem may be with people dying of other treatable conditions due to the health service prioritising Covid and/or patients still being too frightened to seek medical attention.
If, on the other hand, it's slanted towards localities that are also subject to special restrictions or under threat of them, well...
Excess deaths in France correlate strongly by Department, with confirmed Covid-19 deaths.
That makes sense. Now, if we have a similar pattern in this country, coupled with the data suggesting that excess deaths are now occurring only in private residences, then it wouldn't be too much of a stretch to conclude that excess mortality is now predominantly concentrated in private homes in the remaining Covid hotspots. So - save for isolated clusters of cases caused by things like stupid behaviour in pubs, and in settings like meat processing and seasonal agricultural labour - the trouble looks like it's mostly down to multi-generational households crammed into little old houses in little old terraces. That's wholly consistent with the pattern of areas that have been placed under special restrictions.
Keep and, if necessary, further tighten the restrictions and hopefully the Government can squash the cases down to background level everywhere, in time for the schools to reopen. That will presumably give us a better chance of responding in time, if the schools cause a big problem, before things get out of hand.
If they are giving it only to those who have pension credit, there seems no need for them to see bank statements. Proof of eligibility for pension credit should be enough and although I don’t know much about it I presume that’s easy enough to provide.
Most benefits do not provide a "letter" any more. You are simply informed via the portal. Therefore a bank statement has been the default form of proof of receipt of a benefit for some time now. Many people about to discover what a "cushy" life on benefits actually constitutes. Having to hand over your bank statement to all and sundry is part of the routine.
If he faces defeat, I wonder if Trump will turn out to be the monstrous, Nero-like figure for the fate of the US that is increasingly imagined, or whether he will simply turn away and start to curate his own myth and legend of the why election was stolen from him. There seems to be a pattern where he thrives on victimhood and self-righteousness more than the responsibility of the most spectacularly kind of destructive action, which he so often promises.
In fact he's seemingly shied away from several such 'peak' actions so far, on Iran, Korea, the demonstrations, and much else. So far.
Trump needs a legacy for good or for worse. Crashing the Constitution would get him into the history books.
As they said in 2016, it was an historic election whoever won:
The Brits have already had a female PM, a Jewish PM, a Canadian PM... Latino not so much of a thing over her but I guess Philip of Spain or Catherine of Braganza might count
Isn’t the Queen descended from Spanish royalty?
Yes but would be a stretch to call her Hispanic. She’s also descended from Mohammed, but I don’t think the Arabs see her as one of theirs!
She’s also descended from Fergus the Great, but the Irish and Scots don’t see her as one of ours.
She’s regarded with more affection that you think, you old grump
In that case, Scots are world-champions at hiding their true emotions.
Nope, doesn’t compute for me either.
There is ***POLLING*** evidence that SD is right.
The Scots are less royalist than most of the UK - including rather surprisingly NI (where you'd expect a built-in handicap).
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
Orange Co has 88 zip codes. And while $90k in indeed a high level of median household income, there is also a pretty wide inequality gap between richer & poorer residents.
As these groups will tend to balance each other, think middle-income suburban voters will be decisive in OC as across US.
In 2011 Orange County had the 64th highest average household income in the US by county out of 3411 counties in total. Putting it comfortably in the top 5% of the richest US counties
True - and this list is filled with counties that were once Republican strongholds BUT have been trending Democratic for some time - a trend that Trumpsky did NOT cause but has accelerated.
So wither OC? We shall see!
I handicap the national as follows -
Trump easy 5% Trump close 15% Biden close 30% Biden easy 50%
How close (or not) are you to that?
Personally think it will be closer than you suggest, with Biden winning by clear margin but NOT a landslide.
OK thanks. Something like 350/188 works for me. If that is arithmetically feasible. ☺
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
Orange Co has 88 zip codes. And while $90k in indeed a high level of median household income, there is also a pretty wide inequality gap between richer & poorer residents.
As these groups will tend to balance each other, think middle-income suburban voters will be decisive in OC as across US.
In 2011 Orange County had the 64th highest average household income in the US by county out of 3411 counties in total. Putting it comfortably in the top 5% of the richest US counties
True - and this list is filled with counties that were once Republican strongholds BUT have been trending Democratic for some time - a trend that Trumpsky did NOT cause but has accelerated.
So wither OC? We shall see!
I don't think Trump will win OC by a landslide as he will counties in West Virginia for example but he will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 is all I am saying
Part of the increased efficacy of the Dem vote is that California is one of the few states shifting more Republican. Not that it will come close to winning.
If they are giving it only to those who have pension credit, there seems no need for them to see bank statements. Proof of eligibility for pension credit should be enough and although I don’t know much about it I presume that’s easy enough to provide.
Most benefits do not provide a "letter" any more. You are simply informed via the portal. Therefore a bank statement has been the default form of proof of receipt of a benefit for some time now. Many people about to discover what a "cushy" life on benefits actually constitutes. Having to hand over your bank statement to all and sundry is part of the routine.
That's Universal Credit surely? Pension Credit is still manged by letter IIRC.
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
Median household income of $90k. Don’t know the nationwide stats but that seems solidly prosperous to me
Median US household income is $74 000, so Orange County is well above average income even if not all super rich like Newport Beach
Newport Coast is far smarter, Palos Verdes more glamorous and Laguna Beach classier.
Newport Coast and Laguna Beach may be more old money and more comfortable for an Old Etonian like your good self than trashier new money Newport Beach but the polling I referred to just looked at income received not how old it was
The “super rich” don’t live in Newport Beach. Their teenage kids hang out there when they want a good time
The median house price in Newport Beach is over $2 million, seems pretty super rich to me
$2m is not super rich territory for housing in the US, believe you me. I sold a house I built on a lot smaller than our indoor arena for close to that . That is just nice DC burbs bog standard. Hate to think what little you'd get for that in parts of California.
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
Orange Co has 88 zip codes. And while $90k in indeed a high level of median household income, there is also a pretty wide inequality gap between richer & poorer residents.
As these groups will tend to balance each other, think middle-income suburban voters will be decisive in OC as across US.
In 2011 Orange County had the 64th highest average household income in the US by county out of 3411 counties in total. Putting it comfortably in the top 5% of the richest US counties
True - and this list is filled with counties that were once Republican strongholds BUT have been trending Democratic for some time - a trend that Trumpsky did NOT cause but has accelerated.
So wither OC? We shall see!
I don't think Trump will win OC by a landslide as he will counties in West Virginia for example but he will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 is all I am saying
Trump got 42.35% Clinton won by 8.59%
What is your metric for him doing better than 2016? Higher vote percentage? Better margin? Both?
BREAKING: Major incident declared as Greater Manchester Coronavirus rates continue to rise
EXCLUSIVE: New data shows numbers still climbing, with particularly big spikes in Manchester, Tameside and Oldham
....Insiders say the continued increases are not related to Eid, which only began on Friday so cannot realistically have contributed to the rise.
One said mosques have been compliant with the new measures and that the rise is down to continued household transmission across all communities, as well as younger people not observing social distancing measures.
In Manchester, the highest number of cases is understood to be in Crumpsall.
Hospital admissions are said to remain stable regionwide, however, with one official describing them as ‘really low across GM’.
“It’s younger people now, and not ill enough to be in hospital,” they said of those testing positive.
Interesting there have been problems in Manchester and Leicester, but not Birmingham. Maybe proof that Brummies aren't as thick as people like to think.
Do people think Brummies are thick? That's a new one on me, though I confess I'm not completely up on English internecine prejudices.
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
Median household income of $90k. Don’t know the nationwide stats but that seems solidly prosperous to me
Median US household income is $74 000, so Orange County is well above average income even if not all super rich like Newport Beach
Newport Coast is far smarter, Palos Verdes more glamorous and Laguna Beach classier.
Newport Coast and Laguna Beach may be more old money and more comfortable for an Old Etonian like your good self than trashier new money Newport Beach but the polling I referred to just looked at income received not how old it was
The “super rich” don’t live in Newport Beach. Their teenage kids hang out there when they want a good time
The median house price in Newport Beach is over $2 million, seems pretty super rich to me
If he faces defeat, I wonder if Trump will turn out to be the monstrous, Nero-like figure for the fate of the US that is increasingly imagined, or whether he will simply turn away and start to curate his own myth and legend of the why election was stolen from him. There seems to be a pattern where he thrives on victimhood and self-righteousness more than the responsibility of the most spectacularly kind of destructive action, which he so often promises.
In fact he's seemingly shied away from several such 'peak' actions so far, on Iran, Korea, the demonstrations, and much else. So far.
Trump needs a legacy for good or for worse. Crashing the Constitution would get him into the history books.
As they said in 2016, it was an historic election whoever won:
The Brits have already had a female PM, a Jewish PM, a Canadian PM... Latino not so much of a thing over her but I guess Philip of Spain or Catherine of Braganza might count
Isn’t the Queen descended from Spanish royalty?
Yes but would be a stretch to call her Hispanic. She’s also descended from Mohammed, but I don’t think the Arabs see her as one of theirs!
She’s also descended from Fergus the Great, but the Irish and Scots don’t see her as one of ours.
She’s regarded with more affection that you think, you old grump
In that case, Scots are world-champions at hiding their true emotions.
Nope, doesn’t compute for me either.
There is ***POLLING*** evidence that SD is right.
The Scots are less royalist than most of the UK - including rather surprisingly NI (where you'd expect a built-in handicap).
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
The MEDIAN income in OC is $90k...
The position than the Nixon family takes will have much more impact on the vote than your nationwide polling report from a few weeks ago
The Nixon family will not make much difference to the OC vote now beyond a few ageing GOP activists and donors there
What is your basis for that confident assertion?
There are 3 million people in OC, half of them not even born when Nixon was president
The Nixons have huge influence over the GOP organisation
Which specific Nixons are you talking about? Julie and/or Tricia? Number of years ago there were reports of family feuding (can't recall why) which personally hope were overblown and/or resolved, in interests of sisterhood.
For what it's worth, my Democratic mother was a BIG fan of Pat Nixon. Not enough to maker her vote for her husband, but nevertheless a real admirer.
BREAKING: Major incident declared as Greater Manchester Coronavirus rates continue to rise
EXCLUSIVE: New data shows numbers still climbing, with particularly big spikes in Manchester, Tameside and Oldham
....Insiders say the continued increases are not related to Eid, which only began on Friday so cannot realistically have contributed to the rise.
One said mosques have been compliant with the new measures and that the rise is down to continued household transmission across all communities, as well as younger people not observing social distancing measures.
In Manchester, the highest number of cases is understood to be in Crumpsall.
Hospital admissions are said to remain stable regionwide, however, with one official describing them as ‘really low across GM’.
“It’s younger people now, and not ill enough to be in hospital,” they said of those testing positive.
Interesting there have been problems in both Manchester and Leicester, but not Birmingham. Maybe proof that Brummies aren't as thick as people like to think.
This article in today's Sunday Times says they are expecting a new Covid-19 tsunami in Birmingham
BREAKING: Major incident declared as Greater Manchester Coronavirus rates continue to rise
EXCLUSIVE: New data shows numbers still climbing, with particularly big spikes in Manchester, Tameside and Oldham
....Insiders say the continued increases are not related to Eid, which only began on Friday so cannot realistically have contributed to the rise.
One said mosques have been compliant with the new measures and that the rise is down to continued household transmission across all communities, as well as younger people not observing social distancing measures.
In Manchester, the highest number of cases is understood to be in Crumpsall.
Hospital admissions are said to remain stable regionwide, however, with one official describing them as ‘really low across GM’.
“It’s younger people now, and not ill enough to be in hospital,” they said of those testing positive.
Interesting there have been problems in Manchester and Leicester, but not Birmingham. Maybe proof that Brummies aren't as thick as people like to think.
Do people think Brummies are thick? That's a new one on me, though I confess I'm not completely up on English internecine prejudices.
FPT: My local tourist town in Almeria having gone through the whole of the first wave with only 4 cases now has at least 20 all from a local discotheque which locals have warned for weeks was not enforcing the rules properly. Similar cases are happening all over the costas now. looks like the UK government action was ahead of the curve this time.
Stop blaming the discotheques, the increases are down to the masks.
Well according to the anti vaxxers maskers.
There are 71 outbreaks to date across Andalucia - all active with very few under any sort of control. And it os worsening by the day. The whole effort is falling apart and the authorities seem to have no clue as to what to do. Very sad. My advice to anyone from the UK - stay away!
If they are giving it only to those who have pension credit, there seems no need for them to see bank statements. Proof of eligibility for pension credit should be enough and although I don’t know much about it I presume that’s easy enough to provide.
Most benefits do not provide a "letter" any more. You are simply informed via the portal. Therefore a bank statement has been the default form of proof of receipt of a benefit for some time now. Many people about to discover what a "cushy" life on benefits actually constitutes. Having to hand over your bank statement to all and sundry is part of the routine.
That's Universal Credit surely? Pension Credit is still manged by letter IIRC.
Indeed. But, like most benefits, there is a savings limit. £10 000 in this case. Only c 60% of those eligible claim pension credit. So proving eligibility involves, yes, turning over your bank statements. The current Rishi money for the self-employed...How do you prove you've received it? Bank statements.
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
Median household income of $90k. Don’t know the nationwide stats but that seems solidly prosperous to me
Median US household income is $74 000, so Orange County is well above average income even if not all super rich like Newport Beach
Newport Coast is far smarter, Palos Verdes more glamorous and Laguna Beach classier.
Newport Coast and Laguna Beach may be more old money and more comfortable for an Old Etonian like your good self than trashier new money Newport Beach but the polling I referred to just looked at income received not how old it was
The “super rich” don’t live in Newport Beach. Their teenage kids hang out there when they want a good time
The median house price in Newport Beach is over $2 million, seems pretty super rich to me
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
The MEDIAN income in OC is $90k...
The position than the Nixon family takes will have much more impact on the vote than your nationwide polling report from a few weeks ago
The Nixon family will not make much difference to the OC vote now beyond a few ageing GOP activists and donors there
What is your basis for that confident assertion?
There are 3 million people in OC, half of them not even born when Nixon was president
The Nixons have huge influence over the GOP organisation
Which specific Nixons are you talking about? Julie and/or Tricia? Number of years ago there were reports of family feuding (can't recall why) which personally hope were overblown and/or resolved, in interests of sisterhood.
For what it's worth, my Democratic mother was a BIG fan of Pat Nixon. Not enough to maker her vote for her husband, but nevertheless a real admirer.
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
Median household income of $90k. Don’t know the nationwide stats but that seems solidly prosperous to me
Median US household income is $74 000, so Orange County is well above average income even if not all super rich like Newport Beach
Newport Coast is far smarter, Palos Verdes more glamorous and Laguna Beach classier.
Newport Coast and Laguna Beach may be more old money and more comfortable for an Old Etonian like your good self than trashier new money Newport Beach but the polling I referred to just looked at income received not how old it was
The “super rich” don’t live in Newport Beach. Their teenage kids hang out there when they want a good time
The median house price in Newport Beach is over $2 million, seems pretty super rich to me
BREAKING: Major incident declared as Greater Manchester Coronavirus rates continue to rise
EXCLUSIVE: New data shows numbers still climbing, with particularly big spikes in Manchester, Tameside and Oldham
....Insiders say the continued increases are not related to Eid, which only began on Friday so cannot realistically have contributed to the rise.
One said mosques have been compliant with the new measures and that the rise is down to continued household transmission across all communities, as well as younger people not observing social distancing measures.
In Manchester, the highest number of cases is understood to be in Crumpsall.
Hospital admissions are said to remain stable regionwide, however, with one official describing them as ‘really low across GM’.
“It’s younger people now, and not ill enough to be in hospital,” they said of those testing positive.
Interesting there have been problems in Manchester and Leicester, but not Birmingham. Maybe proof that Brummies aren't as thick as people like to think.
Do people think Brummies are thick? That's a new one on me, though I confess I'm not completely up on English internecine prejudices.
Yes, that is the false perception. A West Midlands accent is quite possibly England's least fashionable or desired accent..
The reality is quite different, I think, as Brum and the Black Country have an entrepreneurial culture very similar to America, with much less of the class pretensions of most of England.
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
Orange Co has 88 zip codes. And while $90k in indeed a high level of median household income, there is also a pretty wide inequality gap between richer & poorer residents.
As these groups will tend to balance each other, think middle-income suburban voters will be decisive in OC as across US.
In 2011 Orange County had the 64th highest average household income in the US by county out of 3411 counties in total. Putting it comfortably in the top 5% of the richest US counties
True - and this list is filled with counties that were once Republican strongholds BUT have been trending Democratic for some time - a trend that Trumpsky did NOT cause but has accelerated.
So wither OC? We shall see!
I don't think Trump will win OC by a landslide as he will counties in West Virginia for example but he will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 is all I am saying
Trump got 42.35% Clinton won by 8.59%
What is your metric for him doing better than 2016? Higher vote percentage? Better margin? Both?
Polling showing Trump has made gains amongst the richest 25% even if he has lost support amongst middle income and poor voters
FPT: My local tourist town in Almeria having gone through the whole of the first wave with only 4 cases now has at least 20 all from a local discotheque which locals have warned for weeks was not enforcing the rules properly. Similar cases are happening all over the costas now. looks like the UK government action was ahead of the curve this time.
Stop blaming the discotheques, the increases are down to the masks.
Well according to the anti vaxxers maskers.
There are 71 outbreaks to date across Andalucia - all active with very few under any sort of control. And it os worsening by the day. The whole effort is falling apart and the authorities seem to have no clue as to what to do. Very sad. My advice to anyone from the UK - stay away!
My wife is is in southern Portugal. Concerning.
For what it's worth, today's NYT Covid status map says
> Portugal - avg daily cases 194 = 1.9 per 100k; 14-day trend down
> Spain - avg daily cases 2,300 = 4.9 per 100k; 14-day trend up
Just came in to see @HYUFD embarrassing himself again
Quite. Comparing polls with yes/no to indy with yes/mibbes aye mibbes naw/no to the Royal Family is rather taking the Tunnocks.
I'd like to see a Scottish poll, WITHOUT a neutral option, which gives the Royal Family, from well-respected elders to ******* types, a positive vote of 54% as indy has now.
Don't Know is not a neutral option.
And the fact remains - the monarchy is (surprisingly) weaker here in Scotland than even in NI.
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
Median household income of $90k. Don’t know the nationwide stats but that seems solidly prosperous to me
Median US household income is $74 000, so Orange County is well above average income even if not all super rich like Newport Beach
Newport Coast is far smarter, Palos Verdes more glamorous and Laguna Beach classier.
Newport Coast and Laguna Beach may be more old money and more comfortable for an Old Etonian like your good self than trashier new money Newport Beach but the polling I referred to just looked at income received not how old it was
The “super rich” don’t live in Newport Beach. Their teenage kids hang out there when they want a good time
The median house price in Newport Beach is over $2 million, seems pretty super rich to me
That’s the same as a 2 bedroom flat in prime London
If you are talking Kensington and Chelsea that is the most expensive local authority by house price in the UK yes and most of the property there is flats .
It is also largely super rich on any definition in terms of property ownership there
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
Orange Co has 88 zip codes. And while $90k in indeed a high level of median household income, there is also a pretty wide inequality gap between richer & poorer residents.
As these groups will tend to balance each other, think middle-income suburban voters will be decisive in OC as across US.
In 2011 Orange County had the 64th highest average household income in the US by county out of 3411 counties in total. Putting it comfortably in the top 5% of the richest US counties
True - and this list is filled with counties that were once Republican strongholds BUT have been trending Democratic for some time - a trend that Trumpsky did NOT cause but has accelerated.
So wither OC? We shall see!
I don't think Trump will win OC by a landslide as he will counties in West Virginia for example but he will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 is all I am saying
Trump got 42.35% Clinton won by 8.59%
What is your metric for him doing better than 2016? Higher vote percentage? Better margin? Both?
Polling showing Trump has made gains amongst the richest 25% even if he has lost support amongst middle income and poor voters
Assuming margin of error is NOT too high for this subset, there will be regional differences, which Orange Co NOT the most conservative area infested by the Great Gatsby vote.
Just came in to see @HYUFD embarrassing himself again
Quite. Comparing polls with yes/no to indy with yes/mibbes aye mibbes naw/no to the Royal Family is rather taking the Tunnocks.
I'd like to see a Scottish poll, WITHOUT a neutral option, which gives the Royal Family, from well-respected elders to ******* types, a positive vote of 54% as indy has now.
Don't Know is not a neutral option.
And the fact remains - the monarchy is (surprisingly) weaker here in Scotland than even in NI.
But still a comfortable majority of Scots still want to keep the monarchy and the median Northern Irish voter votes Alliance which is non sectarian but largely Unionist
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
Orange Co has 88 zip codes. And while $90k in indeed a high level of median household income, there is also a pretty wide inequality gap between richer & poorer residents.
As these groups will tend to balance each other, think middle-income suburban voters will be decisive in OC as across US.
In 2011 Orange County had the 64th highest average household income in the US by county out of 3411 counties in total. Putting it comfortably in the top 5% of the richest US counties
True - and this list is filled with counties that were once Republican strongholds BUT have been trending Democratic for some time - a trend that Trumpsky did NOT cause but has accelerated.
So wither OC? We shall see!
I don't think Trump will win OC by a landslide as he will counties in West Virginia for example but he will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 is all I am saying
Trump got 42.35% Clinton won by 8.59%
What is your metric for him doing better than 2016? Higher vote percentage? Better margin? Both?
Polling showing Trump has made gains amongst the richest 25% even if he has lost support amongst middle income and poor voters
So what constitutes as doing better once all the votes have been counted in November?
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
Median household income of $90k. Don’t know the nationwide stats but that seems solidly prosperous to me
Median US household income is $74 000, so Orange County is well above average income even if not all super rich like Newport Beach
Newport Coast is far smarter, Palos Verdes more glamorous and Laguna Beach classier.
Newport Coast and Laguna Beach may be more old money and more comfortable for an Old Etonian like your good self than trashier new money Newport Beach but the polling I referred to just looked at income received not how old it was
The “super rich” don’t live in Newport Beach. Their teenage kids hang out there when they want a good time
Don't suppose any of these supers have got a spare beach house OR need a semi-reputable mansion-sitter? OR a resident psephologist?
A lot will fall into the first category 😂
Would be willing to share. Especially with kind-hearted AND near-sighted widows, au pairs, personal coaches, etc., etc.
Just came in to see @HYUFD embarrassing himself again
Quite. Comparing polls with yes/no to indy with yes/mibbes aye mibbes naw/no to the Royal Family is rather taking the Tunnocks.
I'd like to see a Scottish poll, WITHOUT a neutral option, which gives the Royal Family, from well-respected elders to ******* types, a positive vote of 54% as indy has now.
Don't Know is not a neutral option.
And the fact remains - the monarchy is (surprisingly) weaker here in Scotland than even in NI.
But still a comfortable majority of Scots still want to keep the monarchy and there are now more Unionists in Scotland than Northern Ireland as the median Northern Irish voter votes Alliance which is non sectarian
Majority? Comfortable?
And you are confusing NI Unionist with Scottish Unionist voter. Not to mention that the population of Scotland is rather larger than NI. And you are probably counting Labour voters - many of whom are pro-Indy.
Makes sense to me, ridiculous though it may seem - and surely is.
Posh accent no problem. And non-posh OK also, as people will assume you must be VERY talented to rise in class-obsessed England. AND just showing up at the party validates you are by definition somebody.
Look at what the fake Rockefeller got away with, and HE didn't didn't even pretend to be British.
Just came in to see @HYUFD embarrassing himself again
Quite. Comparing polls with yes/no to indy with yes/mibbes aye mibbes naw/no to the Royal Family is rather taking the Tunnocks.
I'd like to see a Scottish poll, WITHOUT a neutral option, which gives the Royal Family, from well-respected elders to ******* types, a positive vote of 54% as indy has now.
Don't Know is not a neutral option.
And the fact remains - the monarchy is (surprisingly) weaker here in Scotland than even in NI.
But still a comfortable majority of Scots still want to keep the monarchy and there are now more Unionists in Scotland than Northern Ireland as the median Northern Irish voter votes Alliance which is non sectarian
Majority? Comfortable?
And you are confusing NI Unionist with Scottish Unionist voter. Not to mention that the population of Scotland is rather larger than NI. And you are probably counting Labour voters - many of whom are pro-Indy.
Yes there are at least 15% more No to independence supporters in Scotland than Scottish republicans, even including Don't Knows
Just wondering the thoughts on the BBC clip that showed Sunak as a superhero and whether this was appropriate for an impartial broadcaster. Of course because this was pro-Tory, silence from the usual suspects.
(1) Third parties will do less well in 2020 than in 2016. Both the Greens and the Libertarians will go backwards. In aggregate this will be slightly better for the Republicans than the Democrats, especially as the Libertarian candidate is a bit lefty.
(2) Trump will do a really good job of getting his WWC base out. In many left behind areas, where people had previously given up voting, and turnout was still relatively low in 2016, we will see it increase.
(3) A log of Never Trumpers didn't vote in 2016. Quite a few of them will vote in 2020, and more of them will vote for Biden than Trump.
(4) There's probably a bit of a "shy Trump" effect in certain social circles (but not others, of course). I would expect Trump to outperform in areas like OC where people are a bit embarassed about supporting him, but don't want a Biden Presidency.
(5) Trump has been losing old people, women and suburbanites. His handling of CV19 is the biggest part of this. Florida, which I'd always thought of as one of the more likely Republican holds, is increasingly open because old people are fearful and blame Trump for opening the economy too early.
(6) Democrats are going to turn out in record numbers. Places like Wisconsin, where they simply didn't turn out in 2016, will see big increases in their Democrat vote this time. There's no anti-Hillary depressor.
I expect President Trump, who got 63 million votes in 2016 will add about four million votes to his tally, getting 67 million this time around.
But I expect Joe Biden to do even better, adding seven million votes to Hillary's tally of just under 66 million votes, and getting him to 73 million.
I expect Biden to win Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona. The gains in Arizona and Florida will be almost entirely due to the mishandling of CV19 by their Republican Governors. I don't expect President Trump to pick uplose Texas or Pennsylvania. I don't think Trump wins any of Hillary's 2016 states.
BREAKING: Major incident declared as Greater Manchester Coronavirus rates continue to rise
EXCLUSIVE: New data shows numbers still climbing, with particularly big spikes in Manchester, Tameside and Oldham
....Insiders say the continued increases are not related to Eid, which only began on Friday so cannot realistically have contributed to the rise.
One said mosques have been compliant with the new measures and that the rise is down to continued household transmission across all communities, as well as younger people not observing social distancing measures.
In Manchester, the highest number of cases is understood to be in Crumpsall.
Hospital admissions are said to remain stable regionwide, however, with one official describing them as ‘really low across GM’.
“It’s younger people now, and not ill enough to be in hospital,” they said of those testing positive.
It does seem social gatherings across the board are a serious concern
The news coming out of Victoria, Aus, and especially Melbourne maybe a glimpse into the future with curfews and draconian measures implemented for the next six weeks
I really would not want to be making the serious decisions that may well be coming
As to politics I have become entirely neutral on conservative or labour in power.
Boris is not the leader needed at this time, but I doubt anyone else would be able to navigate our country through the dramatic changes that will be involved over the coming years.
I really do not think any political party really has the first conception as too how much is going to change, and nor does the public
Well said. Put it another way: we are FUCKED with a capital CUCKED
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
Median household income of $90k. Don’t know the nationwide stats but that seems solidly prosperous to me
Median US household income is $74 000, so Orange County is well above average income even if not all super rich like Newport Beach
Newport Coast is far smarter, Palos Verdes more glamorous and Laguna Beach classier.
Newport Coast and Laguna Beach may be more old money and more comfortable for an Old Etonian like your good self than trashier new money Newport Beach but the polling I referred to just looked at income received not how old it was
The “super rich” don’t live in Newport Beach. Their teenage kids hang out there when they want a good time
Don't suppose any of these supers have got a spare beach house OR need a semi-reputable mansion-sitter? OR a resident psephologist?
A lot will fall into the first category 😂
Would be willing to share. Especially with kind-hearted AND near-sighted widows, au pairs, personal coaches, etc., etc.
Swedish au pairs yes...
Personally would be fine with their reasonably-well preserved aunts, mothers, etc. But then YOU are a gentleman of taste and refinement. Though perhaps persona non grata at the Swedish consulate . . .
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
Median household income of $90k. Don’t know the nationwide stats but that seems solidly prosperous to me
Median US household income is $74 000, so Orange County is well above average income even if not all super rich like Newport Beach
Newport Coast is far smarter, Palos Verdes more glamorous and Laguna Beach classier.
Newport Coast and Laguna Beach may be more old money and more comfortable for an Old Etonian like your good self than trashier new money Newport Beach but the polling I referred to just looked at income received not how old it was
The “super rich” don’t live in Newport Beach. Their teenage kids hang out there when they want a good time
The median house price in Newport Beach is over $2 million, seems pretty super rich to me
$2m is not super rich territory for housing in the US, believe you me. I sold a house I built on a lot smaller than our indoor arena for close to that . That is just nice DC burbs bog standard. Hate to think what little you'd get for that in parts of California.
FPT: My local tourist town in Almeria having gone through the whole of the first wave with only 4 cases now has at least 20 all from a local discotheque which locals have warned for weeks was not enforcing the rules properly. Similar cases are happening all over the costas now. looks like the UK government action was ahead of the curve this time.
Stop blaming the discotheques, the increases are down to the masks.
Well according to the anti vaxxers maskers.
There are 71 outbreaks to date across Andalucia - all active with very few under any sort of control. And it os worsening by the day. The whole effort is falling apart and the authorities seem to have no clue as to what to do. Very sad. My advice to anyone from the UK - stay away!
My wife is is in southern Portugal. Concerning.
For what it's worth, today's NYT Covid status map says
> Portugal - avg daily cases 194 = 1.9 per 100k; 14-day trend down
> Spain - avg daily cases 2,300 = 4.9 per 100k; 14-day trend up
I don't understand how Portugal is avoiding the Spanish Flux. She says they are all partying, no masks, lots of festivals, wtf?
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
Median household income of $90k. Don’t know the nationwide stats but that seems solidly prosperous to me
Median US household income is $74 000, so Orange County is well above average income even if not all super rich like Newport Beach
Newport Coast is far smarter, Palos Verdes more glamorous and Laguna Beach classier.
Newport Coast and Laguna Beach may be more old money and more comfortable for an Old Etonian like your good self than trashier new money Newport Beach but the polling I referred to just looked at income received not how old it was
The “super rich” don’t live in Newport Beach. Their teenage kids hang out there when they want a good time
The median house price in Newport Beach is over $2 million, seems pretty super rich to me
Just came in to see @HYUFD embarrassing himself again
Quite. Comparing polls with yes/no to indy with yes/mibbes aye mibbes naw/no to the Royal Family is rather taking the Tunnocks.
I'd like to see a Scottish poll, WITHOUT a neutral option, which gives the Royal Family, from well-respected elders to ******* types, a positive vote of 54% as indy has now.
Don't Know is not a neutral option.
And the fact remains - the monarchy is (surprisingly) weaker here in Scotland than even in NI.
But still a comfortable majority of Scots still want to keep the monarchy and there are now more Unionists in Scotland than Northern Ireland as the median Northern Irish voter votes Alliance which is non sectarian
Majority? Comfortable?
And you are confusing NI Unionist with Scottish Unionist voter. Not to mention that the population of Scotland is rather larger than NI. And you are probably counting Labour voters - many of whom are pro-Indy.
Yes there are at least 15% more No to independence supporters in Scotland than Scottish republicans, even including Don't Knows
I couldn't care about republicanism in Scotland - especially with your implicit equation of it with Irish republicanism (you'r doing what you always do and shifting the terms of reference).
It is pretty irrelevant to the independence debate, or to the main point which is the weakness of the monarchy in Scotland relative to the rest of the UK.
As I also recall from the absence of hysteria in Scotland when the then Duchess of Rothesay died in a car accident in Paris. It was actually an utter shock to see the reaction south of the Border.
In my view, in any case, the RF is very much trading on past glories and HMtQ's reign - it will be very interesting to see what happens when the new KIng ascends the throne.
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
Orange Co has 88 zip codes. And while $90k in indeed a high level of median household income, there is also a pretty wide inequality gap between richer & poorer residents.
As these groups will tend to balance each other, think middle-income suburban voters will be decisive in OC as across US.
In 2011 Orange County had the 64th highest average household income in the US by county out of 3411 counties in total. Putting it comfortably in the top 5% of the richest US counties
True - and this list is filled with counties that were once Republican strongholds BUT have been trending Democratic for some time - a trend that Trumpsky did NOT cause but has accelerated.
So wither OC? We shall see!
I don't think Trump will win OC by a landslide as he will counties in West Virginia for example but he will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 is all I am saying
Trump got 42.35% Clinton won by 8.59%
What is your metric for him doing better than 2016? Higher vote percentage? Better margin? Both?
Polling showing Trump has made gains amongst the richest 25% even if he has lost support amongst middle income and poor voters
So what constitutes as doing better once all the votes have been counted in November?
You could start with the richest 4% of voters earning over $250 000 a year in household income.
Romney won 55% of voters earning $250 000 a year or more in 2012, Trump got only 48% of voters earning over $250 000 In 2016
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
Median household income of $90k. Don’t know the nationwide stats but that seems solidly prosperous to me
Median US household income is $74 000, so Orange County is well above average income even if not all super rich like Newport Beach
Newport Coast is far smarter, Palos Verdes more glamorous and Laguna Beach classier.
Newport Coast and Laguna Beach may be more old money and more comfortable for an Old Etonian like your good self than trashier new money Newport Beach but the polling I referred to just looked at income received not how old it was
The “super rich” don’t live in Newport Beach. Their teenage kids hang out there when they want a good time
The median house price in Newport Beach is over $2 million, seems pretty super rich to me
The richest place I have seen in California, in terms of luxury minus urban grime (a problem across America) is Indian Wells, Palm Springs.
Even there, I got a sense of mild malaise. They have so much money they install exquisite fountains on streetcorners that no one will see (because everyone drives in air con due to the heat) and yet, no.
It was like Monte Carlo with an invisible mould. And Monte Carlo is already quite gouty.
For balance, London now feels like New York City in about 1972
(1) Third parties will do less well in 2020 than in 2016. Both the Greens and the Libertarians will go backwards. In aggregate this will be slightly better for the Republicans than the Democrats, especially as the Libertarian candidate is a bit lefty.
(2) Trump will do a really good job of getting his WWC base out. In many left behind areas, where people had previously given up voting, and turnout was still relatively low in 2016, we will see it increase.
(3) A log of Never Trumpers didn't vote in 2016. Quite a few of them will vote in 2020, and more of them will vote for Biden than Trump.
(4) There's probably a bit of a "shy Trump" effect in certain social circles (but not others, of course). I would expect Trump to outperform in areas like OC where people are a bit embarassed about supporting him, but don't want a Biden Presidency.
(5) Trump has been losing old people, women and suburbanites. His handling of CV19 is the biggest part of this. Florida, which I'd always thought of as one of the more likely Republican holds, is increasingly open because old people are fearful and blame Trump for opening the economy too early.
(6) Democrats are going to turn out in record numbers. Places like Wisconsin, where they simply didn't turn out in 2016, will see big increases in their Democrat vote this time. There's no anti-Hillary depressor.
I expect President Trump, who got 63 million votes in 2016 will add about four million votes to his tally, getting 67 million this time around.
But I expect Joe Biden to do even better, adding seven million votes to Hillary's tally of just under 66 million votes, and getting him to 73 million.
I expect Biden to win Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona. The gains in Arizona and Florida will be almost entirely due to the mishandling of CV19 by their Republican Governors. I don't expect President Trump to pick up Texas or Pennsylvania. I don't think Trump wins any of Hillary's 2016 states.
This forecast is - of course - subject to change.
Sounds pretty good to me. But don't understand the bit about Texas? Pretty sure Trumpsky % will fall in Lone Star State but NOT enough to lose it. Do think Biden will end up winning Keystone State.
Just came in to see @HYUFD embarrassing himself again
Quite. Comparing polls with yes/no to indy with yes/mibbes aye mibbes naw/no to the Royal Family is rather taking the Tunnocks.
I'd like to see a Scottish poll, WITHOUT a neutral option, which gives the Royal Family, from well-respected elders to ******* types, a positive vote of 54% as indy has now.
Don't Know is not a neutral option.
And the fact remains - the monarchy is (surprisingly) weaker here in Scotland than even in NI.
But still a comfortable majority of Scots still want to keep the monarchy and there are now more Unionists in Scotland than Northern Ireland as the median Northern Irish voter votes Alliance which is non sectarian
Majority? Comfortable?
And you are confusing NI Unionist with Scottish Unionist voter. Not to mention that the population of Scotland is rather larger than NI. And you are probably counting Labour voters - many of whom are pro-Indy.
Yes there are at least 15% more No to independence supporters in Scotland than Scottish republicans, even including Don't Knows
I couldn't care about republicanism in Scotland - especially with your implicit equation of it with Irish republicanism (you'r doing what you always do and shifting the terms of reference).
It is pretty irrelevant to the independence debate, or to the main point which is the weakness of the monarchy in Scotland relative to the rest of the UK.
As I also recall from the absence of hysteria in Scotland when the then Duchess of Rothesay died in a car accident in Paris. It was actually an utter shock to see the reaction south of the Border.
In my view, in any case, the RF is very much trading on past glories and HMtQ's reign - it will be very interesting to see what happens when the new KIng ascends the throne.
To win over 50% Yes clearly needs to get some monarchists as only 28% of Scots are republicans, pushing for scrapping the monarchy as well as leaving the UK should ensure No wins again that is the point
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
Median household income of $90k. Don’t know the nationwide stats but that seems solidly prosperous to me
Median US household income is $74 000, so Orange County is well above average income even if not all super rich like Newport Beach
Newport Coast is far smarter, Palos Verdes more glamorous and Laguna Beach classier.
Newport Coast and Laguna Beach may be more old money and more comfortable for an Old Etonian like your good self than trashier new money Newport Beach but the polling I referred to just looked at income received not how old it was
The “super rich” don’t live in Newport Beach. Their teenage kids hang out there when they want a good time
Don't suppose any of these supers have got a spare beach house OR need a semi-reputable mansion-sitter? OR a resident psephologist?
A lot will fall into the first category 😂
Would be willing to share. Especially with kind-hearted AND near-sighted widows, au pairs, personal coaches, etc., etc.
Swedish au pairs yes...
Personally would be fine with their reasonably-well preserved aunts, mothers, etc. But then YOU are a gentleman of taste and refinement. Though perhaps persona non grata at the Swedish consulate . . .
In my defence it was only once/s> twice, and a long time ago!
(1) Third parties will do less well in 2020 than in 2016. Both the Greens and the Libertarians will go backwards. In aggregate this will be slightly better for the Republicans than the Democrats, especially as the Libertarian candidate is a bit lefty.
(2) Trump will do a really good job of getting his WWC base out. In many left behind areas, where people had previously given up voting, and turnout was still relatively low in 2016, we will see it increase.
(3) A log of Never Trumpers didn't vote in 2016. Quite a few of them will vote in 2020, and more of them will vote for Biden than Trump.
(4) There's probably a bit of a "shy Trump" effect in certain social circles (but not others, of course). I would expect Trump to outperform in areas like OC where people are a bit embarassed about supporting him, but don't want a Biden Presidency.
(5) Trump has been losing old people, women and suburbanites. His handling of CV19 is the biggest part of this. Florida, which I'd always thought of as one of the more likely Republican holds, is increasingly open because old people are fearful and blame Trump for opening the economy too early.
(6) Democrats are going to turn out in record numbers. Places like Wisconsin, where they simply didn't turn out in 2016, will see big increases in their Democrat vote this time. There's no anti-Hillary depressor.
I expect President Trump, who got 63 million votes in 2016 will add about four million votes to his tally, getting 67 million this time around.
But I expect Joe Biden to do even better, adding seven million votes to Hillary's tally of just under 66 million votes, and getting him to 73 million.
I expect Biden to win Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona. The gains in Arizona and Florida will be almost entirely due to the mishandling of CV19 by their Republican Governors. I don't expect President Trump to pick up Texas or Pennsylvania. I don't think Trump wins any of Hillary's 2016 states.
This forecast is - of course - subject to change.
Sounds pretty good to me. But don't understand the bit about Texas? Pretty sure Trumpsky % will fall in Lone Star State but NOT enough to lose it. Do think Biden will end up winning Keystone State.
If he faces defeat, I wonder if Trump will turn out to be the monstrous, Nero-like figure for the fate of the US that is increasingly imagined, or whether he will simply turn away and start to curate his own myth and legend of the why election was stolen from him. There seems to be a pattern where he thrives on victimhood and self-righteousness more than the responsibility of the most spectacularly kind of destructive action, which he so often promises.
In fact he's seemingly shied away from several such 'peak' actions so far, on Iran, Korea, the demonstrations, and much else. So far.
Trump needs a legacy for good or for worse. Crashing the Constitution would get him into the history books.
As they said in 2016, it was an historic election whoever won:
The Brits have already had a female PM, a Jewish PM, a Canadian PM... Latino not so much of a thing over her but I guess Philip of Spain or Catherine of Braganza might count
Isn’t the Queen descended from Spanish royalty?
Yes but would be a stretch to call her Hispanic. She’s also descended from Mohammed, but I don’t think the Arabs see her as one of theirs!
She’s also descended from Fergus the Great, but the Irish and Scots don’t see her as one of ours.
She’s regarded with more affection that you think, you old grump
In that case, Scots are world-champions at hiding their true emotions.
Nope, doesn’t compute for me either.
There is ***POLLING*** evidence that SD is right.
The Scots are less royalist than most of the UK - including rather surprisingly NI (where you'd expect a built-in handicap).
it's pretty conclusive now. We should have done Sweden. It hurts and people die, but it hurts and people die, anyway. The opposite reaction, the scaredy-cat Spain, Merkel, New Zealand, Sturgeon, belated-Boris reaction, guarantees total economic collapse and ensures nothing anyway
Unless you have an East Asian economy where everyone already wears masks
Comments
Have been impressed by Raab during this accursed pandemic.
As these groups will tend to balance each other, think middle-income suburban voters will be decisive in OC as across US.
So now we have “locals” who own houses and “residents” who do not 😂
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-53347021
If they are giving it only to those who have pension credit, there seems no need for them to see bank statements. Proof of eligibility for pension credit should be enough and although I don’t know much about it I presume that’s easy enough to provide.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-income_counties_in_the_United_States
Newport Coast is far smarter, Palos Verdes more glamorous and Laguna Beach classier.
Given that Charlie Elphicke stopped being an MP in December 2019, the Whip was not withdrawn in July 2020 when he was convicted.
Natalie Elphicke was the Dover MP from the 2019 Election.
So wither OC? We shall see!
It will fester for years and not to the BBC's benefit
Trump easy 5%
Trump close 15%
Biden close 30%
Biden easy 50%
How close (or not) are you to that?
That model won’t survive ten years of live-streaming sport on Youtube.
Something will have to change. Ultimately, the BBC is what will have to go. It might survive as a subscription service. Otherwise, it will vanish altogether.
But as you go inland - say to Santa Ana - the median income is $60k and 20% of the population are below the poverty line
We were both freshman at Ohio University, in same class. She was lovely & radiated class, and I shocked myself by asking her to dinner, and she shocked me by accepting.
Took her to the finest restaurant in Athens, Ohio which I quickly realized was NOT going to impress her. Nor did yours truly at close quarters, and turned out we had little in common besides being at same school & in same class. But was still an interesting experience, and worth every penny . . . though did have to economize for some time . . .
https://www.zillow.com/newport-beach-ca/home-values/
If sport starts to move to online platforms, many people will just have a big smart TV with a network cable in the back, no licence fee and no sky box.
Just remembering what happened to Katie H for a twitter mistake lasting a couple of hours.
Keep and, if necessary, further tighten the restrictions and hopefully the Government can squash the cases down to background level everywhere, in time for the schools to reopen. That will presumably give us a better chance of responding in time, if the schools cause a big problem, before things get out of hand.
Therefore a bank statement has been the default form of proof of receipt of a benefit for some time now.
Many people about to discover what a "cushy" life on benefits actually constitutes. Having to hand over your bank statement to all and sundry is part of the routine.
https://www.daveramsey.com/blog/housing-trends
Clinton won by 8.59%
What is your metric for him doing better than 2016? Higher vote percentage? Better margin? Both?
This has taken on the status of the DMZ, where we can stand for a chat without falling foul of the new North of England restrictions.
For what it's worth, my Democratic mother was a BIG fan of Pat Nixon. Not enough to maker her vote for her husband, but nevertheless a real admirer.
https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/why-brummies-sound-thick-answer-13263613
Only c 60% of those eligible claim pension credit. So proving eligibility involves, yes, turning over your bank statements.
The current Rishi money for the self-employed...How do you prove you've received it?
Bank statements.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/average-home-prices-in-every-state-washington-dc-2019-6?amp
Isn't that just traditional https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debatable_Lands ?
The reality is quite different, I think, as Brum and the Black Country have an entrepreneurial culture very similar to America, with much less of the class pretensions of most of England.
> Portugal - avg daily cases 194 = 1.9 per 100k; 14-day trend down
> Spain - avg daily cases 2,300 = 4.9 per 100k; 14-day trend up
"...claiming anyone with a British accent got into exclusive parties"
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-8585359/Writer-Ghaslain-Maxwells-little-black-book-lifts-lid-New-York-high-society-90s.html
I'd like to see a Scottish poll, WITHOUT a neutral option, which gives the Royal Family, from well-respected elders to ******* types, a positive vote of 54% as indy has now.
Don't Know is not a neutral option.
And the fact remains - the monarchy is (surprisingly) weaker here in Scotland than even in NI.
It is also largely super rich on any
definition in terms of property ownership there
The BBC have only gone and verbed puncture.
"Hamilton's team-mate Valtteri Bottas also punctured, two laps earlier, which dropped him out of the points."
And you are confusing NI Unionist with Scottish Unionist voter. Not to mention that the population of Scotland is rather larger than NI. And you are probably counting Labour voters - many of whom are pro-Indy.
Posh accent no problem. And non-posh OK also, as people will assume you must be VERY talented to rise in class-obsessed England. AND just showing up at the party validates you are by definition somebody.
Look at what the fake Rockefeller got away with, and HE didn't didn't even pretend to be British.
(1) Third parties will do less well in 2020 than in 2016. Both the Greens and the Libertarians will go backwards. In aggregate this will be slightly better for the Republicans than the Democrats, especially as the Libertarian candidate is a bit lefty.
(2) Trump will do a really good job of getting his WWC base out. In many left behind areas, where people had previously given up voting, and turnout was still relatively low in 2016, we will see it increase.
(3) A log of Never Trumpers didn't vote in 2016. Quite a few of them will vote in 2020, and more of them will vote for Biden than Trump.
(4) There's probably a bit of a "shy Trump" effect in certain social circles (but not others, of course). I would expect Trump to outperform in areas like OC where people are a bit embarassed about supporting him, but don't want a Biden Presidency.
(5) Trump has been losing old people, women and suburbanites. His handling of CV19 is the biggest part of this. Florida, which I'd always thought of as one of the more likely Republican holds, is increasingly open because old people are fearful and blame Trump for opening the economy too early.
(6) Democrats are going to turn out in record numbers. Places like Wisconsin, where they simply didn't turn out in 2016, will see big increases in their Democrat vote this time. There's no anti-Hillary depressor.
I expect President Trump, who got 63 million votes in 2016 will add about four million votes to his tally, getting 67 million this time around.
But I expect Joe Biden to do even better, adding seven million votes to Hillary's tally of just under 66 million votes, and getting him to 73 million.
I expect Biden to win Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona. The gains in Arizona and Florida will be almost entirely due to the mishandling of CV19 by their Republican Governors. I don't expect President Trump to pick up lose Texas or Pennsylvania. I don't think Trump wins any of Hillary's 2016 states.
This forecast is - of course - subject to change.
It is pretty irrelevant to the independence debate, or to the main point which is the weakness of the monarchy in Scotland relative to the rest of the UK.
As I also recall from the absence of hysteria in Scotland when the then Duchess of Rothesay died in a car accident in Paris. It was actually an utter shock to see the reaction south of the Border.
In my view, in any case, the RF is very much trading on past glories and HMtQ's reign - it will be very interesting to see what happens when the new KIng ascends the throne.
Romney won 55% of voters earning $250 000 a year or more in 2012, Trump got only 48% of voters earning over $250 000 In 2016
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_States_presidential_election
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election
Even there, I got a sense of mild malaise. They have so much money they install exquisite fountains on streetcorners that no one will see (because everyone drives in air con due to the heat) and yet, no.
It was like Monte Carlo with an invisible mould. And Monte Carlo is already quite gouty.
For balance, London now feels like New York City in about 1972
https://twitter.com/haraldofw/status/1289667984315875328?s=21
Monarchy = Personality Cult
MONARCHY = SOCIALISM!
Unless you have an East Asian economy where everyone already wears masks