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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    Charles said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    EPG said:

    Charles said:

    Warning n=2

    I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.

    Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.

    Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀

    Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
    Dismiss it if you want.

    It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
    Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.

    Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.

    Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).

    Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
    Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)

    What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.

    (The son works for the RNC not Trump)
    Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".

    As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).

    AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.

    Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
    Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
    Median household income of $90k. Don’t know the nationwide stats but that seems solidly prosperous to me
    Median US household income is $74 000, so Orange County is well above average income even if not all super rich like Newport Beach

    https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2020/01/09/trends-in-income-and-wealth-inequality/
    Newport Beach is horrible and trashy though.

    Newport Coast is far smarter, Palos Verdes more glamorous and Laguna Beach classier.
    Newport Coast and Laguna Beach may be more old money and more comfortable for an Old Etonian like your good self than trashier new money Newport Beach but the polling I referred to just looked at income received not how old it was
    The “super rich” don’t live in Newport Beach. Their teenage kids hang out there when they want a good time
    The median house price in Newport Beach is over $2 million, seems pretty super rich to me

    https://www.zillow.com/newport-beach-ca/home-values/
    That's not super rich level in California.
    Super rich is buying a $2m home for your teenage kids to hang out in when they want a good time...
    Newport Beach is in the top 50 richest zip codes in the whole USA, if it is not super rich barely anywhere is

    https://namecensus.com/money/wealth/tables/100_income_zip_codes-10000.html
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited August 2020
    The man who dared to say Sweden’s Covid death rate was falling’s twitter thread made easier to read

    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1289946269142654977.html
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    EPG said:

    Charles said:

    Warning n=2

    I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.

    Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.

    Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀

    Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
    Dismiss it if you want.

    It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
    Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.

    Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.

    Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).

    Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
    Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)

    What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.

    (The son works for the RNC not Trump)
    Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".

    As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).

    AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.

    Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
    Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ocregister.com/2017/12/19/8-orange-county-zips-in-top-100-priciest-for-u-s-home-sales/amp/
    Orange Co has 88 zip codes. And while $90k in indeed a high level of median household income, there is also a pretty wide inequality gap between richer & poorer residents.

    As these groups will tend to balance each other, think middle-income suburban voters will be decisive in OC as across US.
    In 2011 Orange County had the 64th highest average household income in the US by county out of 3411 counties in total. Putting it comfortably in the top 5% of the richest US counties

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-income_counties_in_the_United_States
    True - and this list is filled with counties that were once Republican strongholds BUT have been trending Democratic for some time - a trend that Trumpsky did NOT cause but has accelerated.

    So wither OC? We shall see!
    I don't think Trump will win OC by a landslide as he will counties in West Virginia for example but he will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 is all I am saying
    Part of the increased efficacy of the Dem vote is that California is one of the few states shifting more Republican. Not that it will come close to winning.

    Until 1992 California usually did vote Republican at Presidential elections. Is the pendulum now swinging back to them there?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    If he faces defeat, I wonder if Trump will turn out to be the monstrous, Nero-like figure for the fate of the US that is increasingly imagined, or whether he will simply turn away and start to curate his own myth and legend of the why election was stolen from him. There seems to be a pattern where he thrives on victimhood and self-righteousness more than the responsibility of the most spectacularly kind of destructive action, which he so often promises.

    In fact he's seemingly shied away from several such 'peak' actions so far, on Iran, Korea, the demonstrations, and much else. So far.

    Trump needs a legacy for good or for worse. Crashing the Constitution would get him into the history books.
    As they said in 2016, it was an historic election whoever won:

    The Brits have already had a female PM, a Jewish PM, a Canadian PM... Latino not so much of a thing over her but I guess Philip of Spain or Catherine of Braganza might count
    Isn’t the Queen descended from Spanish royalty?
    Yes but would be a stretch to call her Hispanic. She’s also descended from Mohammed, but I don’t think the Arabs see her as one of theirs!
    She’s also descended from Fergus the Great, but the Irish and Scots don’t see her as one of ours.
    She’s regarded with more affection that you think, you old grump
    In that case, Scots are world-champions at hiding their true emotions.

    Nope, doesn’t compute for me either.
    There is ***POLLING*** evidence that SD is right.

    The Scots are less royalist than most of the UK - including rather surprisingly NI (where you'd expect a built-in handicap).

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/16238128.poll-only-41-per-cent-of-scots-support-monarchy/

    [and the Herald is a Unionist newspaper, very much so, and was so by that time]

    Scots still backed the monarchy by 41% to 28% opposed
    So that is under half, including Don't Knows.
    Yes but even excluding don't knows no poll has Yes 13% ahead in Scotland as the monarchy is
    So just like the Independence polls. You know the ones - those where you keep including Don't Knows.
    Including or excluding don't knows the monarchy has a bigger lead in Scotland than Yes to independence
    Socialism = Personality Cult
    Monarchy = Personality Cult

    MONARCHY = SOCIALISM!
    No it doesn't, state control of the economy = socialism
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:
    Worse for some than for others. One poor bastard on here legged it to Penarth and was never heard of again.
    Fuck. Did he die?!
    He was last heard of being tiring on to the Tube
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Charles said:

    Carnyx said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    If he faces defeat, I wonder if Trump will turn out to be the monstrous, Nero-like figure for the fate of the US that is increasingly imagined, or whether he will simply turn away and start to curate his own myth and legend of the why election was stolen from him. There seems to be a pattern where he thrives on victimhood and self-righteousness more than the responsibility of the most spectacularly kind of destructive action, which he so often promises.

    In fact he's seemingly shied away from several such 'peak' actions so far, on Iran, Korea, the demonstrations, and much else. So far.

    Trump needs a legacy for good or for worse. Crashing the Constitution would get him into the history books.
    As they said in 2016, it was an historic election whoever won:

    The Brits have already had a female PM, a Jewish PM, a Canadian PM... Latino not so much of a thing over her but I guess Philip of Spain or Catherine of Braganza might count
    Isn’t the Queen descended from Spanish royalty?
    Yes but would be a stretch to call her Hispanic. She’s also descended from Mohammed, but I don’t think the Arabs see her as one of theirs!
    She’s also descended from Fergus the Great, but the Irish and Scots don’t see her as one of ours.
    She’s regarded with more affection that you think, you old grump
    In that case, Scots are world-champions at hiding their true emotions.

    Nope, doesn’t compute for me either.
    There is ***POLLING*** evidence that SD is right.

    The Scots are less royalist than most of the UK - including rather surprisingly NI (where you'd expect a built-in handicap).

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/16238128.poll-only-41-per-cent-of-scots-support-monarchy/

    [and the Herald is a Unionist newspaper, very much so, and was so by that time]

    That’s older than the data referred to in the UnHerd article I posted.

    But it was also only 28% opposed to the monarchy (41%+27% ambivalent are content with the status quo) 😉
    Straw men. As usual.

    You asserted “affection”. Reluctant, minority support does not equal affection.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    If he faces defeat, I wonder if Trump will turn out to be the monstrous, Nero-like figure for the fate of the US that is increasingly imagined, or whether he will simply turn away and start to curate his own myth and legend of the why election was stolen from him. There seems to be a pattern where he thrives on victimhood and self-righteousness more than the responsibility of the most spectacularly kind of destructive action, which he so often promises.

    In fact he's seemingly shied away from several such 'peak' actions so far, on Iran, Korea, the demonstrations, and much else. So far.

    Trump needs a legacy for good or for worse. Crashing the Constitution would get him into the history books.
    As they said in 2016, it was an historic election whoever won:

    The Brits have already had a female PM, a Jewish PM, a Canadian PM... Latino not so much of a thing over her but I guess Philip of Spain or Catherine of Braganza might count
    Isn’t the Queen descended from Spanish royalty?
    Yes but would be a stretch to call her Hispanic. She’s also descended from Mohammed, but I don’t think the Arabs see her as one of theirs!
    She’s also descended from Fergus the Great, but the Irish and Scots don’t see her as one of ours.
    She’s regarded with more affection that you think, you old grump
    In that case, Scots are world-champions at hiding their true emotions.

    Nope, doesn’t compute for me either.
    There is ***POLLING*** evidence that SD is right.

    The Scots are less royalist than most of the UK - including rather surprisingly NI (where you'd expect a built-in handicap).

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/16238128.poll-only-41-per-cent-of-scots-support-monarchy/

    [and the Herald is a Unionist newspaper, very much so, and was so by that time]

    Scots still backed the monarchy by 41% to 28% opposed
    So that is under half, including Don't Knows.
    Yes but even excluding don't knows no poll has Yes 13% ahead in Scotland as the monarchy is
    So just like the Independence polls. You know the ones - those where you keep including Don't Knows.
    Including or excluding don't knows the monarchy has a bigger lead in Scotland than Yes to independence
    Socialism = Personality Cult
    Monarchy = Personality Cult

    MONARCHY = SOCIALISM!
    Sunil = mammal
    Pangolin = mammal

    SUNIL = PANGOLIN

    Undistributed middle = FALLACY!
  • LadyG said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    EPG said:

    Charles said:

    Warning n=2

    I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.

    Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.

    Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀

    Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
    Dismiss it if you want.

    It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
    Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.

    Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.

    Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).

    Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
    Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)

    What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.

    (The son works for the RNC not Trump)
    Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".

    As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).

    AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.

    Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
    Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
    Median household income of $90k. Don’t know the nationwide stats but that seems solidly prosperous to me
    Median US household income is $74 000, so Orange County is well above average income even if not all super rich like Newport Beach

    https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2020/01/09/trends-in-income-and-wealth-inequality/
    Newport Beach is horrible and trashy though.

    Newport Coast is far smarter, Palos Verdes more glamorous and Laguna Beach classier.
    Newport Coast and Laguna Beach may be more old money and more comfortable for an Old Etonian like your good self than trashier new money Newport Beach but the polling I referred to just looked at income received not how old it was
    The “super rich” don’t live in Newport Beach. Their teenage kids hang out there when they want a good time
    The median house price in Newport Beach is over $2 million, seems pretty super rich to me

    https://www.zillow.com/newport-beach-ca/home-values/
    That's not super rich level in California.
    The richest place I have seen in California, in terms of luxury minus urban grime (a problem across America) is Indian Wells, Palm Springs.

    Even there, I got a sense of mild malaise. They have so much money they install exquisite fountains on streetcorners that no one will see (because everyone drives in air con due to the heat) and yet, no.

    It was like Monte Carlo with an invisible mould. And Monte Carlo is already quite gouty.

    For balance, London now feels like New York City in about 1972
    In 2016, CA state senate district that includes Palm Springs area, and gerrymandered to take in best GOP turf in Riverside County, voted
    Trump 48.5% Clinton 46.7% Johnson 3.1% Stein 1.3% La Riva 0.3%

    Further note while Trump won Indian Wells, La Quinta and Palm Desert (the last narrowly) he LOST Rancho Mirage (where Jerry Ford retired to), Desert Hot Springs, Palm Springs, Indio, Cathedral City and Coachella.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,217
    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    If he faces defeat, I wonder if Trump will turn out to be the monstrous, Nero-like figure for the fate of the US that is increasingly imagined, or whether he will simply turn away and start to curate his own myth and legend of the why election was stolen from him. There seems to be a pattern where he thrives on victimhood and self-righteousness more than the responsibility of the most spectacularly kind of destructive action, which he so often promises.

    In fact he's seemingly shied away from several such 'peak' actions so far, on Iran, Korea, the demonstrations, and much else. So far.

    Trump needs a legacy for good or for worse. Crashing the Constitution would get him into the history books.
    As they said in 2016, it was an historic election whoever won:

    The Brits have already had a female PM, a Jewish PM, a Canadian PM... Latino not so much of a thing over her but I guess Philip of Spain or Catherine of Braganza might count
    Isn’t the Queen descended from Spanish royalty?
    Yes but would be a stretch to call her Hispanic. She’s also descended from Mohammed, but I don’t think the Arabs see her as one of theirs!
    She’s also descended from Fergus the Great, but the Irish and Scots don’t see her as one of ours.
    She’s regarded with more affection that you think, you old grump
    In that case, Scots are world-champions at hiding their true emotions.

    Nope, doesn’t compute for me either.
    There is ***POLLING*** evidence that SD is right.

    The Scots are less royalist than most of the UK - including rather surprisingly NI (where you'd expect a built-in handicap).

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/16238128.poll-only-41-per-cent-of-scots-support-monarchy/

    [and the Herald is a Unionist newspaper, very much so, and was so by that time]

    Scots still backed the monarchy by 41% to 28% opposed
    So that is under half, including Don't Knows.
    Yes but even excluding don't knows no poll has Yes 13% ahead in Scotland as the monarchy is
    So just like the Independence polls. You know the ones - those where you keep including Don't Knows.
    Including or excluding don't knows the monarchy has a bigger lead in Scotland than Yes to independence
    Socialism = Personality Cult
    Monarchy = Personality Cult

    MONARCHY = SOCIALISM!
    Sunil = mammal
    Pangolin = mammal

    SUNIL = PANGOLIN

    Undistributed middle = FALLACY!
    Do you have any actual evidence that Sunil is not a bat?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    rcs1000 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    If he faces defeat, I wonder if Trump will turn out to be the monstrous, Nero-like figure for the fate of the US that is increasingly imagined, or whether he will simply turn away and start to curate his own myth and legend of the why election was stolen from him. There seems to be a pattern where he thrives on victimhood and self-righteousness more than the responsibility of the most spectacularly kind of destructive action, which he so often promises.

    In fact he's seemingly shied away from several such 'peak' actions so far, on Iran, Korea, the demonstrations, and much else. So far.

    Trump needs a legacy for good or for worse. Crashing the Constitution would get him into the history books.
    As they said in 2016, it was an historic election whoever won:

    The Brits have already had a female PM, a Jewish PM, a Canadian PM... Latino not so much of a thing over her but I guess Philip of Spain or Catherine of Braganza might count
    Isn’t the Queen descended from Spanish royalty?
    Yes but would be a stretch to call her Hispanic. She’s also descended from Mohammed, but I don’t think the Arabs see her as one of theirs!
    She’s also descended from Fergus the Great, but the Irish and Scots don’t see her as one of ours.
    She’s regarded with more affection that you think, you old grump
    In that case, Scots are world-champions at hiding their true emotions.

    Nope, doesn’t compute for me either.
    There is ***POLLING*** evidence that SD is right.

    The Scots are less royalist than most of the UK - including rather surprisingly NI (where you'd expect a built-in handicap).

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/16238128.poll-only-41-per-cent-of-scots-support-monarchy/

    [and the Herald is a Unionist newspaper, very much so, and was so by that time]

    Scots still backed the monarchy by 41% to 28% opposed
    So that is under half, including Don't Knows.
    Yes but even excluding don't knows no poll has Yes 13% ahead in Scotland as the monarchy is
    So just like the Independence polls. You know the ones - those where you keep including Don't Knows.
    Including or excluding don't knows the monarchy has a bigger lead in Scotland than Yes to independence
    Socialism = Personality Cult
    Monarchy = Personality Cult

    MONARCHY = SOCIALISM!
    Sunil = mammal
    Pangolin = mammal

    SUNIL = PANGOLIN

    Undistributed middle = FALLACY!
    Do you have any actual evidence that Sunil is not a bat?
    I'll do the Venn diagrams and get back to you on that.
  • rcs1000 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    If he faces defeat, I wonder if Trump will turn out to be the monstrous, Nero-like figure for the fate of the US that is increasingly imagined, or whether he will simply turn away and start to curate his own myth and legend of the why election was stolen from him. There seems to be a pattern where he thrives on victimhood and self-righteousness more than the responsibility of the most spectacularly kind of destructive action, which he so often promises.

    In fact he's seemingly shied away from several such 'peak' actions so far, on Iran, Korea, the demonstrations, and much else. So far.

    Trump needs a legacy for good or for worse. Crashing the Constitution would get him into the history books.
    As they said in 2016, it was an historic election whoever won:

    The Brits have already had a female PM, a Jewish PM, a Canadian PM... Latino not so much of a thing over her but I guess Philip of Spain or Catherine of Braganza might count
    Isn’t the Queen descended from Spanish royalty?
    Yes but would be a stretch to call her Hispanic. She’s also descended from Mohammed, but I don’t think the Arabs see her as one of theirs!
    She’s also descended from Fergus the Great, but the Irish and Scots don’t see her as one of ours.
    She’s regarded with more affection that you think, you old grump
    In that case, Scots are world-champions at hiding their true emotions.

    Nope, doesn’t compute for me either.
    There is ***POLLING*** evidence that SD is right.

    The Scots are less royalist than most of the UK - including rather surprisingly NI (where you'd expect a built-in handicap).

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/16238128.poll-only-41-per-cent-of-scots-support-monarchy/

    [and the Herald is a Unionist newspaper, very much so, and was so by that time]

    Scots still backed the monarchy by 41% to 28% opposed
    So that is under half, including Don't Knows.
    Yes but even excluding don't knows no poll has Yes 13% ahead in Scotland as the monarchy is
    So just like the Independence polls. You know the ones - those where you keep including Don't Knows.
    Including or excluding don't knows the monarchy has a bigger lead in Scotland than Yes to independence
    Socialism = Personality Cult
    Monarchy = Personality Cult

    MONARCHY = SOCIALISM!
    Sunil = mammal
    Pangolin = mammal

    SUNIL = PANGOLIN

    Undistributed middle = FALLACY!
    Do you have any actual evidence that Sunil is not a bat?
    Doubt he's ever been to Louisville, much less born there.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    justin124 said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    EPG said:

    Charles said:

    Warning n=2

    I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.

    Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.

    Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀

    Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
    Dismiss it if you want.

    It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
    Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.

    Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.

    Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).

    Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
    Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)

    What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.

    (The son works for the RNC not Trump)
    Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".

    As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).

    AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.

    Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
    Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ocregister.com/2017/12/19/8-orange-county-zips-in-top-100-priciest-for-u-s-home-sales/amp/
    Orange Co has 88 zip codes. And while $90k in indeed a high level of median household income, there is also a pretty wide inequality gap between richer & poorer residents.

    As these groups will tend to balance each other, think middle-income suburban voters will be decisive in OC as across US.
    In 2011 Orange County had the 64th highest average household income in the US by county out of 3411 counties in total. Putting it comfortably in the top 5% of the richest US counties

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-income_counties_in_the_United_States
    True - and this list is filled with counties that were once Republican strongholds BUT have been trending Democratic for some time - a trend that Trumpsky did NOT cause but has accelerated.

    So wither OC? We shall see!
    I don't think Trump will win OC by a landslide as he will counties in West Virginia for example but he will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 is all I am saying
    Part of the increased efficacy of the Dem vote is that California is one of the few states shifting more Republican. Not that it will come close to winning.

    Until 1992 California usually did vote Republican at Presidential elections. Is the pendulum now swinging back to them there?
    Slightly

    https://twitter.com/plural_vote/status/1289998242373963779?s=09
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    LadyG said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    EPG said:

    Charles said:

    Warning n=2

    I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.

    Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.

    Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀

    Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
    Dismiss it if you want.

    It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
    Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.

    Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.

    Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).

    Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
    Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)

    What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.

    (The son works for the RNC not Trump)
    Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".

    As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).

    AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.

    Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
    Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
    Median household income of $90k. Don’t know the nationwide stats but that seems solidly prosperous to me
    Median US household income is $74 000, so Orange County is well above average income even if not all super rich like Newport Beach

    https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2020/01/09/trends-in-income-and-wealth-inequality/
    Newport Beach is horrible and trashy though.

    Newport Coast is far smarter, Palos Verdes more glamorous and Laguna Beach classier.
    Newport Coast and Laguna Beach may be more old money and more comfortable for an Old Etonian like your good self than trashier new money Newport Beach but the polling I referred to just looked at income received not how old it was
    The “super rich” don’t live in Newport Beach. Their teenage kids hang out there when they want a good time
    The median house price in Newport Beach is over $2 million, seems pretty super rich to me

    https://www.zillow.com/newport-beach-ca/home-values/
    That's not super rich level in California.
    The richest place I have seen in California, in terms of luxury minus urban grime (a problem across America) is Indian Wells, Palm Springs.

    Even there, I got a sense of mild malaise. They have so much money they install exquisite fountains on streetcorners that no one will see (because everyone drives in air con due to the heat) and yet, no.

    It was like Monte Carlo with an invisible mould. And Monte Carlo is already quite gouty.

    For balance, London now feels like New York City in about 1972
    In 2016, CA state senate district that includes Palm Springs area, and gerrymandered to take in best GOP turf in Riverside County, voted
    Trump 48.5% Clinton 46.7% Johnson 3.1% Stein 1.3% La Riva 0.3%

    Further note while Trump won Indian Wells, La Quinta and Palm Desert (the last narrowly) he LOST Rancho Mirage (where Jerry Ford retired to), Desert Hot Springs, Palm Springs, Indio, Cathedral City and Coachella.
    It's a fascinating and gorgeous part of the world. I love that desert heat throbbing off the mountains. I was there last year just before Coachella. The girls! My god.

    Palm Springs town centre is, however, to my mind, emblematic of America's urban problems. If this was a city in Spain or Portugal or Greece (similar climate) it would have endless tavernas under the palms, lots of cool marble boulevards, a culture of urban wandering.

    Instead it has about three nervous streetcorners with open air bars, surrounded by overwide streets blighted by drug addicts and dereliction. It is a place you don't want to walk through to get nowhere.

    It's mad. America is so rich. Why can't America sort out its town centres? Abolish the fucking cars. House the junkies. Be Barcelona. Not Caracas.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    EPG said:

    Charles said:

    Warning n=2

    I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.

    Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.

    Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀

    Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
    Dismiss it if you want.

    It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
    Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.

    Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.

    Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).

    Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
    Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)

    What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.

    (The son works for the RNC not Trump)
    Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".

    As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).

    AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.

    Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
    Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
    Median household income of $90k. Don’t know the nationwide stats but that seems solidly prosperous to me
    Median US household income is $74 000, so Orange County is well above average income even if not all super rich like Newport Beach

    https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2020/01/09/trends-in-income-and-wealth-inequality/
    Newport Beach is horrible and trashy though.

    Newport Coast is far smarter, Palos Verdes more glamorous and Laguna Beach classier.
    Newport Coast and Laguna Beach may be more old money and more comfortable for an Old Etonian like your good self than trashier new money Newport Beach but the polling I referred to just looked at income received not how old it was
    The “super rich” don’t live in Newport Beach. Their teenage kids hang out there when they want a good time
    The median house price in Newport Beach is over $2 million, seems pretty super rich to me

    https://www.zillow.com/newport-beach-ca/home-values/
    That's not super rich level in California.
    Super rich is buying a $2m home for your teenage kids to hang out in when they want a good time...
    Newport Beach is in the top 50 richest zip codes in the whole USA, if it is not super rich barely anywhere is

    https://namecensus.com/money/wealth/tables/100_income_zip_codes-10000.html
    If you are measuring income you are not super rich.

    (Although I note that Palos Verdes and the neighbouring Pacific Palisades are significantly higher than Newport Beach. Additionally my vow that Summit is the only place in New Jersey I would consider living is justified...)
  • LadyG said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    EPG said:

    Charles said:

    Warning n=2

    I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.

    Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.

    Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀

    Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
    Dismiss it if you want.

    It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
    Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.

    Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.

    Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).

    Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
    Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)

    What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.

    (The son works for the RNC not Trump)
    Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".

    As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).

    AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.

    Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
    Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
    Median household income of $90k. Don’t know the nationwide stats but that seems solidly prosperous to me
    Median US household income is $74 000, so Orange County is well above average income even if not all super rich like Newport Beach

    https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2020/01/09/trends-in-income-and-wealth-inequality/
    Newport Beach is horrible and trashy though.

    Newport Coast is far smarter, Palos Verdes more glamorous and Laguna Beach classier.
    Newport Coast and Laguna Beach may be more old money and more comfortable for an Old Etonian like your good self than trashier new money Newport Beach but the polling I referred to just looked at income received not how old it was
    The “super rich” don’t live in Newport Beach. Their teenage kids hang out there when they want a good time
    The median house price in Newport Beach is over $2 million, seems pretty super rich to me

    https://www.zillow.com/newport-beach-ca/home-values/
    That's not super rich level in California.
    The richest place I have seen in California, in terms of luxury minus urban grime (a problem across America) is Indian Wells, Palm Springs.

    Even there, I got a sense of mild malaise. They have so much money they install exquisite fountains on streetcorners that no one will see (because everyone drives in air con due to the heat) and yet, no.

    It was like Monte Carlo with an invisible mould. And Monte Carlo is already quite gouty.

    For balance, London now feels like New York City in about 1972
    In 2016, CA state senate district that includes Palm Springs area, and gerrymandered to take in best GOP turf in Riverside County, voted
    Trump 48.5% Clinton 46.7% Johnson 3.1% Stein 1.3% La Riva 0.3%

    Further note while Trump won Indian Wells, La Quinta and Palm Desert (the last narrowly) he LOST Rancho Mirage (where Jerry Ford retired to), Desert Hot Springs, Palm Springs, Indio, Cathedral City and Coachella.
    Trump did win Indian Wells two-to-one.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    LadyG said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    EPG said:

    Charles said:

    Warning n=2

    I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.

    Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.

    Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀

    Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
    Dismiss it if you want.

    It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
    Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.

    Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.

    Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).

    Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
    Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)

    What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.

    (The son works for the RNC not Trump)
    Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".

    As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).

    AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.

    Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
    Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
    Median household income of $90k. Don’t know the nationwide stats but that seems solidly prosperous to me
    Median US household income is $74 000, so Orange County is well above average income even if not all super rich like Newport Beach

    https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2020/01/09/trends-in-income-and-wealth-inequality/
    Newport Beach is horrible and trashy though.

    Newport Coast is far smarter, Palos Verdes more glamorous and Laguna Beach classier.
    Newport Coast and Laguna Beach may be more old money and more comfortable for an Old Etonian like your good self than trashier new money Newport Beach but the polling I referred to just looked at income received not how old it was
    The “super rich” don’t live in Newport Beach. Their teenage kids hang out there when they want a good time
    The median house price in Newport Beach is over $2 million, seems pretty super rich to me

    https://www.zillow.com/newport-beach-ca/home-values/
    That's not super rich level in California.
    The richest place I have seen in California, in terms of luxury minus urban grime (a problem across America) is Indian Wells, Palm Springs.

    Even there, I got a sense of mild malaise. They have so much money they install exquisite fountains on streetcorners that no one will see (because everyone drives in air con due to the heat) and yet, no.

    It was like Monte Carlo with an invisible mould. And Monte Carlo is already quite gouty.

    For balance, London now feels like New York City in about 1972
    In 2016, CA state senate district that includes Palm Springs area, and gerrymandered to take in best GOP turf in Riverside County, voted
    Trump 48.5% Clinton 46.7% Johnson 3.1% Stein 1.3% La Riva 0.3%

    Further note while Trump won Indian Wells, La Quinta and Palm Desert (the last narrowly) he LOST Rancho Mirage (where Jerry Ford retired to), Desert Hot Springs, Palm Springs, Indio, Cathedral City and Coachella.
    Gerrymandered by the Democrats to try and reduce the chance of the GOP winning other seats!
  • Foxy said:

    justin124 said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    EPG said:

    Charles said:

    Warning n=2

    I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.

    Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.

    Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀

    Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
    Dismiss it if you want.

    It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
    Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.

    Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.

    Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).

    Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
    Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)

    What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.

    (The son works for the RNC not Trump)
    Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".

    As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).

    AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.

    Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
    Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ocregister.com/2017/12/19/8-orange-county-zips-in-top-100-priciest-for-u-s-home-sales/amp/
    Orange Co has 88 zip codes. And while $90k in indeed a high level of median household income, there is also a pretty wide inequality gap between richer & poorer residents.

    As these groups will tend to balance each other, think middle-income suburban voters will be decisive in OC as across US.
    In 2011 Orange County had the 64th highest average household income in the US by county out of 3411 counties in total. Putting it comfortably in the top 5% of the richest US counties

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-income_counties_in_the_United_States
    True - and this list is filled with counties that were once Republican strongholds BUT have been trending Democratic for some time - a trend that Trumpsky did NOT cause but has accelerated.

    So wither OC? We shall see!
    I don't think Trump will win OC by a landslide as he will counties in West Virginia for example but he will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 is all I am saying
    Part of the increased efficacy of the Dem vote is that California is one of the few states shifting more Republican. Not that it will come close to winning.

    Until 1992 California usually did vote Republican at Presidential elections. Is the pendulum now swinging back to them there?
    Slightly

    https://twitter.com/plural_vote/status/1289998242373963779?s=09
    Cali certainly does stand out on this map.
  • USA Dem Veep betting. Kamala Harris now odds-on.

    Kamala Harris: 1.87
    Susan Rice: 6.4
    Karen Bass: 9.6
    Tammy Duckworth: 11
    Elizabeth Warren: 20
    Michelle Obama: 27
    Val Demings: 36
    Gretchen Whitmer: 60
    Hillary Clinton: 130
    Michelle Lujan Grisham: 130
    Keisha Lance Bottoms: 170
    Stacey Abrams: 200
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    edited August 2020
    LadyG said:

    isam said:

    Not sure working age is 0-64, but still...

    https://twitter.com/haraldofw/status/1289667984315875328?s=21

    it's pretty conclusive now. We should have done Sweden. It hurts and people die, but it hurts and people die, anyway. The opposite reaction, the scaredy-cat Spain, Merkel, New Zealand, Sturgeon, belated-Boris reaction, guarantees total economic collapse and ensures nothing anyway

    Unless you have an East Asian economy where everyone already wears masks
    You are just about the only person flip flopping about more rapidly than our government.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    IanB2 said:

    LadyG said:

    isam said:

    Not sure working age is 0-64, but still...

    https://twitter.com/haraldofw/status/1289667984315875328?s=21

    it's pretty conclusive now. We should have done Sweden. It hurts and people die, but it hurts and people die, anyway. The opposite reaction, the scaredy-cat Spain, Merkel, New Zealand, Sturgeon, belated-Boris reaction, guarantees total economic collapse and ensures nothing anyway

    Unless you have an East Asian economy where everyone already wears masks
    You are just about the only person flip flopping about more rapidly than our government.
    I have never denied the pulchritude of the axolotl
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    TOPPING said:

    Fuckin Hell.

    The BBC have only gone and verbed puncture.

    "Hamilton's team-mate Valtteri Bottas also punctured, two laps earlier, which dropped him out of the points."

    Hate to puncture your bubble, but it's always been a verb...
    transitive vs intransitive is a change of usage surely?
    Yes.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    LadyG said:

    IanB2 said:

    LadyG said:

    isam said:

    Not sure working age is 0-64, but still...

    https://twitter.com/haraldofw/status/1289667984315875328?s=21

    it's pretty conclusive now. We should have done Sweden. It hurts and people die, but it hurts and people die, anyway. The opposite reaction, the scaredy-cat Spain, Merkel, New Zealand, Sturgeon, belated-Boris reaction, guarantees total economic collapse and ensures nothing anyway

    Unless you have an East Asian economy where everyone already wears masks
    You are just about the only person flip flopping about more rapidly than our government.
    I have never denied the pulchritude of the axolotl
    We already know that you are a twat. That didn’t need any discussion.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    LadyG said:

    IanB2 said:

    LadyG said:

    isam said:

    Not sure working age is 0-64, but still...

    https://twitter.com/haraldofw/status/1289667984315875328?s=21

    it's pretty conclusive now. We should have done Sweden. It hurts and people die, but it hurts and people die, anyway. The opposite reaction, the scaredy-cat Spain, Merkel, New Zealand, Sturgeon, belated-Boris reaction, guarantees total economic collapse and ensures nothing anyway

    Unless you have an East Asian economy where everyone already wears masks
    You are just about the only person flip flopping about more rapidly than our government.
    I have never denied the pulchritude of the axolotl
    I know some of those words.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    IanB2 said:

    LadyG said:

    IanB2 said:

    LadyG said:

    isam said:

    Not sure working age is 0-64, but still...

    https://twitter.com/haraldofw/status/1289667984315875328?s=21

    it's pretty conclusive now. We should have done Sweden. It hurts and people die, but it hurts and people die, anyway. The opposite reaction, the scaredy-cat Spain, Merkel, New Zealand, Sturgeon, belated-Boris reaction, guarantees total economic collapse and ensures nothing anyway

    Unless you have an East Asian economy where everyone already wears masks
    You are just about the only person flip flopping about more rapidly than our government.
    I have never denied the pulchritude of the axolotl
    We already know that you are a twat. That didn’t need any discussion.
    Have you ever considered the concept of homo-erotic obsession? As a sapphic painter of the NEWT I kindly suggest you have a weird monomania
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    Foxy said:

    justin124 said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    EPG said:

    Charles said:

    Warning n=2

    I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.

    Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.

    Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀

    Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
    Dismiss it if you want.

    It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
    Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.

    Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.

    Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).

    Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
    Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)

    What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.

    (The son works for the RNC not Trump)
    Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".

    As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).

    AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.

    Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
    Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ocregister.com/2017/12/19/8-orange-county-zips-in-top-100-priciest-for-u-s-home-sales/amp/
    Orange Co has 88 zip codes. And while $90k in indeed a high level of median household income, there is also a pretty wide inequality gap between richer & poorer residents.

    As these groups will tend to balance each other, think middle-income suburban voters will be decisive in OC as across US.
    In 2011 Orange County had the 64th highest average household income in the US by county out of 3411 counties in total. Putting it comfortably in the top 5% of the richest US counties

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-income_counties_in_the_United_States
    True - and this list is filled with counties that were once Republican strongholds BUT have been trending Democratic for some time - a trend that Trumpsky did NOT cause but has accelerated.

    So wither OC? We shall see!
    I don't think Trump will win OC by a landslide as he will counties in West Virginia for example but he will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 is all I am saying
    Part of the increased efficacy of the Dem vote is that California is one of the few states shifting more Republican. Not that it will come close to winning.

    Until 1992 California usually did vote Republican at Presidential elections. Is the pendulum now swinging back to them there?
    Slightly

    https://twitter.com/plural_vote/status/1289998242373963779?s=09
    Cali certainly does stand out on this map.
    Maryland is pink too fwiw, and the grey states have no comparator.

    Plural Vote is run by a registered Democrat, but nonetheless, that looks like a swing to the Dems in all the right places. A more efficient vote.
  • Charles said:

    LadyG said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    EPG said:

    Charles said:

    Warning n=2

    I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.

    Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.

    Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀

    Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
    Dismiss it if you want.

    It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
    Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.

    Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.

    Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).

    Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
    Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)

    What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.

    (The son works for the RNC not Trump)
    Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".

    As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).

    AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.

    Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
    Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
    Median household income of $90k. Don’t know the nationwide stats but that seems solidly prosperous to me
    Median US household income is $74 000, so Orange County is well above average income even if not all super rich like Newport Beach

    https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2020/01/09/trends-in-income-and-wealth-inequality/
    Newport Beach is horrible and trashy though.

    Newport Coast is far smarter, Palos Verdes more glamorous and Laguna Beach classier.
    Newport Coast and Laguna Beach may be more old money and more comfortable for an Old Etonian like your good self than trashier new money Newport Beach but the polling I referred to just looked at income received not how old it was
    The “super rich” don’t live in Newport Beach. Their teenage kids hang out there when they want a good time
    The median house price in Newport Beach is over $2 million, seems pretty super rich to me

    https://www.zillow.com/newport-beach-ca/home-values/
    That's not super rich level in California.
    The richest place I have seen in California, in terms of luxury minus urban grime (a problem across America) is Indian Wells, Palm Springs.

    Even there, I got a sense of mild malaise. They have so much money they install exquisite fountains on streetcorners that no one will see (because everyone drives in air con due to the heat) and yet, no.

    It was like Monte Carlo with an invisible mould. And Monte Carlo is already quite gouty.

    For balance, London now feels like New York City in about 1972
    In 2016, CA state senate district that includes Palm Springs area, and gerrymandered to take in best GOP turf in Riverside County, voted
    Trump 48.5% Clinton 46.7% Johnson 3.1% Stein 1.3% La Riva 0.3%

    Further note while Trump won Indian Wells, La Quinta and Palm Desert (the last narrowly) he LOST Rancho Mirage (where Jerry Ford retired to), Desert Hot Springs, Palm Springs, Indio, Cathedral City and Coachella.
    Gerrymandered by the Democrats to try and reduce the chance of the GOP winning other seats!
    Yes, that is so. Pack 'em & crack 'em - in case the latter. Though not as avante garde as gerrymanders crafted back in the day for the Dems by Phil Burton =
    "my contribution to modern art".

    Burton was pioneer in matching data with computers to map out, game-play, tweak & perfect redistricting plans from his side's point of view.

    Supposedly once offered to create a gay Republican district in Sant Cruz area for GOP buddy, who supposedly turned him down.

    Incidentally, it was Burton gerrymander of CA congressional districts that allegedly inspired Indiana Republicans to emulate him in the Hoosier State. EXCEPT that they lacked Burton's finesse, and ended up getting a bit too greedy, and making a supposedly safe GOP seat NOT safe enough - the Bloody 8th.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    EPG said:

    Charles said:

    Warning n=2

    I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.

    Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.

    Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀

    Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
    Dismiss it if you want.

    It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
    Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.

    Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.

    Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).

    Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
    Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)

    What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.

    (The son works for the RNC not Trump)
    Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".

    As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).

    AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.

    Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
    Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
    Median household income of $90k. Don’t know the nationwide stats but that seems solidly prosperous to me
    Median US household income is $74 000, so Orange County is well above average income even if not all super rich like Newport Beach

    https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2020/01/09/trends-in-income-and-wealth-inequality/
    Newport Beach is horrible and trashy though.

    Newport Coast is far smarter, Palos Verdes more glamorous and Laguna Beach classier.
    Newport Coast and Laguna Beach may be more old money and more comfortable for an Old Etonian like your good self than trashier new money Newport Beach but the polling I referred to just looked at income received not how old it was
    The “super rich” don’t live in Newport Beach. Their teenage kids hang out there when they want a good time
    The median house price in Newport Beach is over $2 million, seems pretty super rich to me

    https://www.zillow.com/newport-beach-ca/home-values/
    That’s the same as a 2 bedroom flat in prime London
    If you are talking Kensington and Chelsea that is the most expensive local authority by house price in the UK yes and most of the property there is flats .

    It is also largely super rich on any
    definition in terms of property ownership there
    No. Super rich is 50m. Very rich is 10m. Rich is 5m. Wealthy is 2m. Affluent is 1m. Below that is various shades of oik.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    edited August 2020
    TOPPING said:

    Fuckin Hell.

    The BBC have only gone and verbed puncture.

    "Hamilton's team-mate Valtteri Bottas also punctured, two laps earlier, which dropped him out of the points."

    Pretty sure that the intransitive use of puncture has been around for a long time.

    Though usually it’s the tyre rather than the driver which punctures...
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,898
    LadyG said:


    It's a fascinating and gorgeous part of the world. I love that desert heat throbbing off the mountains. I was there last year just before Coachella. The girls! My god.

    Palm Springs town centre is, however, to my mind, emblematic of America's urban problems. If this was a city in Spain or Portugal or Greece (similar climate) it would have endless tavernas under the palms, lots of cool marble boulevards, a culture of urban wandering.

    Instead it has about three nervous streetcorners with open air bars, surrounded by overwide streets blighted by drug addicts and dereliction. It is a place you don't want to walk through to get nowhere.

    It's mad. America is so rich. Why can't America sort out its town centres? Abolish the fucking cars. House the junkies. Be Barcelona. Not Caracas.

    Actually spent Christmas and New Year in Rancho Mirage once with Mrs Stodge and have been there three times.

    I wouldn't go in the heat of summer but in January it's a balmy 25c by day, the locals complain how cold it is and we are having breakfast al fresco on the terrace of the hotel.

    I love the area but Rancho is my favourite. Some really nice places to eat around Cat City as well.

    Saw in the New Year enjoying a chilled glass or three of Californian wine on the terrace.

    Plenty of "snowbirds" but mostly Canadians from the Prairie States - regular winter flights from Edmonton, Winnipeg and Calgary down to Palm Springs. We had no such good fortune but the drive from San Diego only takes a couple of hours.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    EPG said:

    Charles said:

    Warning n=2

    I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.

    Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.

    Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀

    Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
    Dismiss it if you want.

    It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
    Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.

    Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.

    Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).

    Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
    Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)

    What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.

    (The son works for the RNC not Trump)
    Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".

    As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).

    AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.

    Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
    Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
    Median household income of $90k. Don’t know the nationwide stats but that seems solidly prosperous to me
    Median US household income is $74 000, so Orange County is well above average income even if not all super rich like Newport Beach

    https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2020/01/09/trends-in-income-and-wealth-inequality/
    Newport Beach is horrible and trashy though.

    Newport Coast is far smarter, Palos Verdes more glamorous and Laguna Beach classier.
    Newport Coast and Laguna Beach may be more old money and more comfortable for an Old Etonian like your good self than trashier new money Newport Beach but the polling I referred to just looked at income received not how old it was
    The “super rich” don’t live in Newport Beach. Their teenage kids hang out there when they want a good time
    The median house price in Newport Beach is over $2 million, seems pretty super rich to me

    https://www.zillow.com/newport-beach-ca/home-values/
    That’s the same as a 2 bedroom flat in prime London
    If you are talking Kensington and Chelsea that is the most expensive local authority by house price in the UK yes and most of the property there is flats .

    It is also largely super rich on any
    definition in terms of property ownership there
    No. Super rich is 50m. Very rich is 10m. Rich is 5m. Wealthy is 2m. Affluent is 1m. Below that is various shades of oik.
    You can still be super rich and be an oik, see Liam Gallagher. Class depends on education and background not just wealth.

    Super rich nowadays is over 100 million on some definitions but I was focusing on where they tend to live
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,999
    Here's some footage of the Antonov that Malc was going to look at this afternoon. A beast..

    https://twitter.com/JohnRome7/status/1289961473700233217?s=20
  • rcs1000 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    If he faces defeat, I wonder if Trump will turn out to be the monstrous, Nero-like figure for the fate of the US that is increasingly imagined, or whether he will simply turn away and start to curate his own myth and legend of the why election was stolen from him. There seems to be a pattern where he thrives on victimhood and self-righteousness more than the responsibility of the most spectacularly kind of destructive action, which he so often promises.

    In fact he's seemingly shied away from several such 'peak' actions so far, on Iran, Korea, the demonstrations, and much else. So far.

    Trump needs a legacy for good or for worse. Crashing the Constitution would get him into the history books.
    As they said in 2016, it was an historic election whoever won:

    The Brits have already had a female PM, a Jewish PM, a Canadian PM... Latino not so much of a thing over her but I guess Philip of Spain or Catherine of Braganza might count
    Isn’t the Queen descended from Spanish royalty?
    Yes but would be a stretch to call her Hispanic. She’s also descended from Mohammed, but I don’t think the Arabs see her as one of theirs!
    She’s also descended from Fergus the Great, but the Irish and Scots don’t see her as one of ours.
    She’s regarded with more affection that you think, you old grump
    In that case, Scots are world-champions at hiding their true emotions.

    Nope, doesn’t compute for me either.
    There is ***POLLING*** evidence that SD is right.

    The Scots are less royalist than most of the UK - including rather surprisingly NI (where you'd expect a built-in handicap).

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/16238128.poll-only-41-per-cent-of-scots-support-monarchy/

    [and the Herald is a Unionist newspaper, very much so, and was so by that time]

    Scots still backed the monarchy by 41% to 28% opposed
    So that is under half, including Don't Knows.
    Yes but even excluding don't knows no poll has Yes 13% ahead in Scotland as the monarchy is
    So just like the Independence polls. You know the ones - those where you keep including Don't Knows.
    Including or excluding don't knows the monarchy has a bigger lead in Scotland than Yes to independence
    Socialism = Personality Cult
    Monarchy = Personality Cult

    MONARCHY = SOCIALISM!
    Sunil = mammal
    Pangolin = mammal

    SUNIL = PANGOLIN

    Undistributed middle = FALLACY!
    Do you have any actual evidence that Sunil is not a bat?
    I am the Scarlet Pipistrelle! :lol:
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    If he faces defeat, I wonder if Trump will turn out to be the monstrous, Nero-like figure for the fate of the US that is increasingly imagined, or whether he will simply turn away and start to curate his own myth and legend of the why election was stolen from him. There seems to be a pattern where he thrives on victimhood and self-righteousness more than the responsibility of the most spectacularly kind of destructive action, which he so often promises.

    In fact he's seemingly shied away from several such 'peak' actions so far, on Iran, Korea, the demonstrations, and much else. So far.

    Trump needs a legacy for good or for worse. Crashing the Constitution would get him into the history books.
    As they said in 2016, it was an historic election whoever won:

    The Brits have already had a female PM, a Jewish PM, a Canadian PM... Latino not so much of a thing over her but I guess Philip of Spain or Catherine of Braganza might count
    Isn’t the Queen descended from Spanish royalty?
    Yes but would be a stretch to call her Hispanic. She’s also descended from Mohammed, but I don’t think the Arabs see her as one of theirs!
    She’s also descended from Fergus the Great, but the Irish and Scots don’t see her as one of ours.
    She’s regarded with more affection that you think, you old grump
    In that case, Scots are world-champions at hiding their true emotions.

    Nope, doesn’t compute for me either.
    There is ***POLLING*** evidence that SD is right.

    The Scots are less royalist than most of the UK - including rather surprisingly NI (where you'd expect a built-in handicap).

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/16238128.poll-only-41-per-cent-of-scots-support-monarchy/

    [and the Herald is a Unionist newspaper, very much so, and was so by that time]

    Scots still backed the monarchy by 41% to 28% opposed
    So that is under half, including Don't Knows.
    Yes but even excluding don't knows no poll has Yes 13% ahead in Scotland as the monarchy is
    So just like the Independence polls. You know the ones - those where you keep including Don't Knows.
    Including or excluding don't knows the monarchy has a bigger lead in Scotland than Yes to independence
    Socialism = Personality Cult
    Monarchy = Personality Cult

    MONARCHY = SOCIALISM!
    No it doesn't, state control of the economy = socialism
    HYUFD = unreconstructed Socialist!
  • I don't even know what's being discussed here
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    If he faces defeat, I wonder if Trump will turn out to be the monstrous, Nero-like figure for the fate of the US that is increasingly imagined, or whether he will simply turn away and start to curate his own myth and legend of the why election was stolen from him. There seems to be a pattern where he thrives on victimhood and self-righteousness more than the responsibility of the most spectacularly kind of destructive action, which he so often promises.

    In fact he's seemingly shied away from several such 'peak' actions so far, on Iran, Korea, the demonstrations, and much else. So far.

    Trump needs a legacy for good or for worse. Crashing the Constitution would get him into the history books.
    As they said in 2016, it was an historic election whoever won:

    The Brits have already had a female PM, a Jewish PM, a Canadian PM... Latino not so much of a thing over her but I guess Philip of Spain or Catherine of Braganza might count
    Isn’t the Queen descended from Spanish royalty?
    Yes but would be a stretch to call her Hispanic. She’s also descended from Mohammed, but I don’t think the Arabs see her as one of theirs!
    She’s also descended from Fergus the Great, but the Irish and Scots don’t see her as one of ours.
    She’s regarded with more affection that you think, you old grump
    In that case, Scots are world-champions at hiding their true emotions.

    Nope, doesn’t compute for me either.
    There is ***POLLING*** evidence that SD is right.

    The Scots are less royalist than most of the UK - including rather surprisingly NI (where you'd expect a built-in handicap).

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/16238128.poll-only-41-per-cent-of-scots-support-monarchy/

    [and the Herald is a Unionist newspaper, very much so, and was so by that time]

    Scots still backed the monarchy by 41% to 28% opposed
    So that is under half, including Don't Knows.
    Yes but even excluding don't knows no poll has Yes 13% ahead in Scotland as the monarchy is
    So just like the Independence polls. You know the ones - those where you keep including Don't Knows.
    Including or excluding don't knows the monarchy has a bigger lead in Scotland than Yes to independence
    Socialism = Personality Cult
    Monarchy = Personality Cult

    MONARCHY = SOCIALISM!
    No it doesn't, state control of the economy = socialism
    HYUFD = unreconstructed Socialist!
    Monarchy is more One Nation Tory, most socialists tend to be republican
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    If he faces defeat, I wonder if Trump will turn out to be the monstrous, Nero-like figure for the fate of the US that is increasingly imagined, or whether he will simply turn away and start to curate his own myth and legend of the why election was stolen from him. There seems to be a pattern where he thrives on victimhood and self-righteousness more than the responsibility of the most spectacularly kind of destructive action, which he so often promises.

    In fact he's seemingly shied away from several such 'peak' actions so far, on Iran, Korea, the demonstrations, and much else. So far.

    Trump needs a legacy for good or for worse. Crashing the Constitution would get him into the history books.
    As they said in 2016, it was an historic election whoever won:

    The Brits have already had a female PM, a Jewish PM, a Canadian PM... Latino not so much of a thing over her but I guess Philip of Spain or Catherine of Braganza might count
    Isn’t the Queen descended from Spanish royalty?
    Yes but would be a stretch to call her Hispanic. She’s also descended from Mohammed, but I don’t think the Arabs see her as one of theirs!
    She’s also descended from Fergus the Great, but the Irish and Scots don’t see her as one of ours.
    She’s regarded with more affection that you think, you old grump
    In that case, Scots are world-champions at hiding their true emotions.

    Nope, doesn’t compute for me either.
    There is ***POLLING*** evidence that SD is right.

    The Scots are less royalist than most of the UK - including rather surprisingly NI (where you'd expect a built-in handicap).

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/16238128.poll-only-41-per-cent-of-scots-support-monarchy/

    [and the Herald is a Unionist newspaper, very much so, and was so by that time]

    Scots still backed the monarchy by 41% to 28% opposed
    So that is under half, including Don't Knows.
    Yes but even excluding don't knows no poll has Yes 13% ahead in Scotland as the monarchy is
    So just like the Independence polls. You know the ones - those where you keep including Don't Knows.
    Including or excluding don't knows the monarchy has a bigger lead in Scotland than Yes to independence
    Socialism = Personality Cult
    Monarchy = Personality Cult

    MONARCHY = SOCIALISM!
    No it doesn't, state control of the economy = socialism
    The state is doing some serious control of the economy right now.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    rcs1000 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    If he faces defeat, I wonder if Trump will turn out to be the monstrous, Nero-like figure for the fate of the US that is increasingly imagined, or whether he will simply turn away and start to curate his own myth and legend of the why election was stolen from him. There seems to be a pattern where he thrives on victimhood and self-righteousness more than the responsibility of the most spectacularly kind of destructive action, which he so often promises.

    In fact he's seemingly shied away from several such 'peak' actions so far, on Iran, Korea, the demonstrations, and much else. So far.

    Trump needs a legacy for good or for worse. Crashing the Constitution would get him into the history books.
    As they said in 2016, it was an historic election whoever won:

    The Brits have already had a female PM, a Jewish PM, a Canadian PM... Latino not so much of a thing over her but I guess Philip of Spain or Catherine of Braganza might count
    Isn’t the Queen descended from Spanish royalty?
    Yes but would be a stretch to call her Hispanic. She’s also descended from Mohammed, but I don’t think the Arabs see her as one of theirs!
    She’s also descended from Fergus the Great, but the Irish and Scots don’t see her as one of ours.
    She’s regarded with more affection that you think, you old grump
    In that case, Scots are world-champions at hiding their true emotions.

    Nope, doesn’t compute for me either.
    There is ***POLLING*** evidence that SD is right.

    The Scots are less royalist than most of the UK - including rather surprisingly NI (where you'd expect a built-in handicap).

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/16238128.poll-only-41-per-cent-of-scots-support-monarchy/

    [and the Herald is a Unionist newspaper, very much so, and was so by that time]

    Scots still backed the monarchy by 41% to 28% opposed
    So that is under half, including Don't Knows.
    Yes but even excluding don't knows no poll has Yes 13% ahead in Scotland as the monarchy is
    So just like the Independence polls. You know the ones - those where you keep including Don't Knows.
    Including or excluding don't knows the monarchy has a bigger lead in Scotland than Yes to independence
    Socialism = Personality Cult
    Monarchy = Personality Cult

    MONARCHY = SOCIALISM!
    Sunil = mammal
    Pangolin = mammal

    SUNIL = PANGOLIN

    Undistributed middle = FALLACY!
    Do you have any actual evidence that Sunil is not a bat?
    I am the Scarlet Pipistrelle! :lol:
    Could be worse, could be hog nosed.
  • stodge said:

    LadyG said:


    It's a fascinating and gorgeous part of the world. I love that desert heat throbbing off the mountains. I was there last year just before Coachella. The girls! My god.

    Palm Springs town centre is, however, to my mind, emblematic of America's urban problems. If this was a city in Spain or Portugal or Greece (similar climate) it would have endless tavernas under the palms, lots of cool marble boulevards, a culture of urban wandering.

    Instead it has about three nervous streetcorners with open air bars, surrounded by overwide streets blighted by drug addicts and dereliction. It is a place you don't want to walk through to get nowhere.

    It's mad. America is so rich. Why can't America sort out its town centres? Abolish the fucking cars. House the junkies. Be Barcelona. Not Caracas.

    Actually spent Christmas and New Year in Rancho Mirage once with Mrs Stodge and have been there three times.

    I wouldn't go in the heat of summer but in January it's a balmy 25c by day, the locals complain how cold it is and we are having breakfast al fresco on the terrace of the hotel.

    I love the area but Rancho is my favourite. Some really nice places to eat around Cat City as well.

    Saw in the New Year enjoying a chilled glass or three of Californian wine on the terrace.

    Plenty of "snowbirds" but mostly Canadians from the Prairie States - regular winter flights from Edmonton, Winnipeg and Calgary down to Palm Springs. We had no such good fortune but the drive from San Diego only takes a couple of hours.

    Palm Spring area also very popular with Pacific Northwesterners from both sides of the border.

    As resort area, naturally has a LARGE population of hospitality and other service workers, who are more plentiful in the less salubrious sections, mostly due to relative housing prices. Also, among the richer, Whiter residents there is a "birds of a feather" tendency that makes more socially-culturally-politically progressive rich people congregate in somewhat different areas than folks who are just as wealthy but more conservative.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,707

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    If he faces defeat, I wonder if Trump will turn out to be the monstrous, Nero-like figure for the fate of the US that is increasingly imagined, or whether he will simply turn away and start to curate his own myth and legend of the why election was stolen from him. There seems to be a pattern where he thrives on victimhood and self-righteousness more than the responsibility of the most spectacularly kind of destructive action, which he so often promises.

    In fact he's seemingly shied away from several such 'peak' actions so far, on Iran, Korea, the demonstrations, and much else. So far.

    Trump needs a legacy for good or for worse. Crashing the Constitution would get him into the history books.
    As they said in 2016, it was an historic election whoever won:

    The Brits have already had a female PM, a Jewish PM, a Canadian PM... Latino not so much of a thing over her but I guess Philip of Spain or Catherine of Braganza might count
    Isn’t the Queen descended from Spanish royalty?
    Yes but would be a stretch to call her Hispanic. She’s also descended from Mohammed, but I don’t think the Arabs see her as one of theirs!
    She’s also descended from Fergus the Great, but the Irish and Scots don’t see her as one of ours.
    She’s regarded with more affection that you think, you old grump
    In that case, Scots are world-champions at hiding their true emotions.

    Nope, doesn’t compute for me either.
    There is ***POLLING*** evidence that SD is right.

    The Scots are less royalist than most of the UK - including rather surprisingly NI (where you'd expect a built-in handicap).

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/16238128.poll-only-41-per-cent-of-scots-support-monarchy/

    [and the Herald is a Unionist newspaper, very much so, and was so by that time]

    Scots still backed the monarchy by 41% to 28% opposed
    So that is under half, including Don't Knows.
    Yes but even excluding don't knows no poll has Yes 13% ahead in Scotland as the monarchy is
    So just like the Independence polls. You know the ones - those where you keep including Don't Knows.
    Including or excluding don't knows the monarchy has a bigger lead in Scotland than Yes to independence
    Socialism = Personality Cult
    Monarchy = Personality Cult

    MONARCHY = SOCIALISM!
    No it doesn't, state control of the economy = socialism
    The state is doing some serious control of the economy right now.
    Not so much controlling as clinging on for grim death.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Cameroon donor, Lib Dem and arch Remainer I believe

    https://twitter.com/dailymailuk/status/1289889951795097601?s=21
  • Scott_xP said:
    Still whinging?

    People have more important issues to worry about. Get over it already, this is getting sad now.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    LadyG said:

    IanB2 said:

    LadyG said:

    IanB2 said:

    LadyG said:

    isam said:

    Not sure working age is 0-64, but still...

    https://twitter.com/haraldofw/status/1289667984315875328?s=21

    it's pretty conclusive now. We should have done Sweden. It hurts and people die, but it hurts and people die, anyway. The opposite reaction, the scaredy-cat Spain, Merkel, New Zealand, Sturgeon, belated-Boris reaction, guarantees total economic collapse and ensures nothing anyway

    Unless you have an East Asian economy where everyone already wears masks
    You are just about the only person flip flopping about more rapidly than our government.
    I have never denied the pulchritude of the axolotl
    We already know that you are a twat. That didn’t need any discussion.
    Have you ever considered the concept of homo-erotic obsession? As a sapphic painter of the NEWT I kindly suggest you have a weird monomania
    What kind of lady are you?!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,002

    People have more important issues to worry about. Get over it already, this is getting sad now.

    Still touchy?
  • Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FTAO @Malmesbury in particular.

    BREAKING: Major incident declared as Greater Manchester Coronavirus rates continue to rise

    EXCLUSIVE: New data shows numbers still climbing, with particularly big spikes in Manchester, Tameside and Oldham

    ....Insiders say the continued increases are not related to Eid, which only began on Friday so cannot realistically have contributed to the rise.

    One said mosques have been compliant with the new measures and that the rise is down to continued household transmission across all communities, as well as younger people not observing social distancing measures.

    In Manchester, the highest number of cases is understood to be in Crumpsall.

    Hospital admissions are said to remain stable regionwide, however, with one official describing them as ‘really low across GM’.

    “It’s younger people now, and not ill enough to be in hospital,” they said of those testing positive.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/breaking-major-incident-declared-greater-18704165

    Interesting there have been problems in Manchester and Leicester, but not Birmingham. Maybe proof that Brummies aren't as thick as people like to think.
    Do people think Brummies are thick? That's a new one on me, though I confess I'm not completely up on English internecine prejudices.
    Yes, that is the false perception. A West Midlands accent is quite possibly England's least fashionable or desired accent..

    The reality is quite different, I think, as Brum and the Black Country have an entrepreneurial culture very similar to America, with much less of the class pretensions of most of England.
    You don’t get very far with broad Devon either, me lover...
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036
    Scott_xP said:
    The double act with Coleslaw will have to wait until next year's Edinburgh Fringe.
  • Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FTAO @Malmesbury in particular.

    BREAKING: Major incident declared as Greater Manchester Coronavirus rates continue to rise

    EXCLUSIVE: New data shows numbers still climbing, with particularly big spikes in Manchester, Tameside and Oldham

    ....Insiders say the continued increases are not related to Eid, which only began on Friday so cannot realistically have contributed to the rise.

    One said mosques have been compliant with the new measures and that the rise is down to continued household transmission across all communities, as well as younger people not observing social distancing measures.

    In Manchester, the highest number of cases is understood to be in Crumpsall.

    Hospital admissions are said to remain stable regionwide, however, with one official describing them as ‘really low across GM’.

    “It’s younger people now, and not ill enough to be in hospital,” they said of those testing positive.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/breaking-major-incident-declared-greater-18704165

    Interesting there have been problems in Manchester and Leicester, but not Birmingham. Maybe proof that Brummies aren't as thick as people like to think.
    Do people think Brummies are thick? That's a new one on me, though I confess I'm not completely up on English internecine prejudices.
    Yes, that is the false perception. A West Midlands accent is quite possibly England's least fashionable or desired accent..

    The reality is quite different, I think, as Brum and the Black Country have an entrepreneurial culture very similar to America, with much less of the class pretensions of most of England.
    You don’t get very far with broad Devon either, me lover...
    Could go over just fine in USA, however - PROVIDED you are intelligible, and strategic in use of colorful Old Country argot.

    Indeed, you can make the later up as you go!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    IanB2 said:

    LadyG said:

    IanB2 said:

    LadyG said:

    IanB2 said:

    LadyG said:

    isam said:

    Not sure working age is 0-64, but still...

    https://twitter.com/haraldofw/status/1289667984315875328?s=21

    it's pretty conclusive now. We should have done Sweden. It hurts and people die, but it hurts and people die, anyway. The opposite reaction, the scaredy-cat Spain, Merkel, New Zealand, Sturgeon, belated-Boris reaction, guarantees total economic collapse and ensures nothing anyway

    Unless you have an East Asian economy where everyone already wears masks
    You are just about the only person flip flopping about more rapidly than our government.
    I have never denied the pulchritude of the axolotl
    We already know that you are a twat. That didn’t need any discussion.
    Have you ever considered the concept of homo-erotic obsession? As a sapphic painter of the NEWT I kindly suggest you have a weird monomania
    What kind of lady are you?!
    A self identified one, of course.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,285
    edited August 2020

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FTAO @Malmesbury in particular.

    BREAKING: Major incident declared as Greater Manchester Coronavirus rates continue to rise

    EXCLUSIVE: New data shows numbers still climbing, with particularly big spikes in Manchester, Tameside and Oldham

    ....Insiders say the continued increases are not related to Eid, which only began on Friday so cannot realistically have contributed to the rise.

    One said mosques have been compliant with the new measures and that the rise is down to continued household transmission across all communities, as well as younger people not observing social distancing measures.

    In Manchester, the highest number of cases is understood to be in Crumpsall.

    Hospital admissions are said to remain stable regionwide, however, with one official describing them as ‘really low across GM’.

    “It’s younger people now, and not ill enough to be in hospital,” they said of those testing positive.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/breaking-major-incident-declared-greater-18704165

    Interesting there have been problems in Manchester and Leicester, but not Birmingham. Maybe proof that Brummies aren't as thick as people like to think.
    Do people think Brummies are thick? That's a new one on me, though I confess I'm not completely up on English internecine prejudices.
    Yes, that is the false perception. A West Midlands accent is quite possibly England's least fashionable or desired accent..

    The reality is quite different, I think, as Brum and the Black Country have an entrepreneurial culture very similar to America, with much less of the class pretensions of most of England.
    You don’t get very far with broad Devon either, me lover...
    Could go over just fine in USA, however - PROVIDED you are intelligible, and strategic in use of colorful Old Country argot.

    Indeed, you can make the later up as you go!
    The generic West Country accent is basically the one used by people who want to sound like pirates.

    For the broadest version, well remember that scene from Hot Fuzz?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cun-LZvOTdw
    Edit: this is accurate.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    stodge said:

    LadyG said:


    It's a fascinating and gorgeous part of the world. I love that desert heat throbbing off the mountains. I was there last year just before Coachella. The girls! My god.

    Palm Springs town centre is, however, to my mind, emblematic of America's urban problems. If this was a city in Spain or Portugal or Greece (similar climate) it would have endless tavernas under the palms, lots of cool marble boulevards, a culture of urban wandering.

    Instead it has about three nervous streetcorners with open air bars, surrounded by overwide streets blighted by drug addicts and dereliction. It is a place you don't want to walk through to get nowhere.

    It's mad. America is so rich. Why can't America sort out its town centres? Abolish the fucking cars. House the junkies. Be Barcelona. Not Caracas.

    Actually spent Christmas and New Year in Rancho Mirage once with Mrs Stodge and have been there three times.

    I wouldn't go in the heat of summer but in January it's a balmy 25c by day, the locals complain how cold it is and we are having breakfast al fresco on the terrace of the hotel.

    I love the area but Rancho is my favourite. Some really nice places to eat around Cat City as well.

    Saw in the New Year enjoying a chilled glass or three of Californian wine on the terrace.

    Plenty of "snowbirds" but mostly Canadians from the Prairie States - regular winter flights from Edmonton, Winnipeg and Calgary down to Palm Springs. We had no such good fortune but the drive from San Diego only takes a couple of hours.

    Palm Spring area also very popular with Pacific Northwesterners from both sides of the border.

    As resort area, naturally has a LARGE population of hospitality and other service workers, who are more plentiful in the less salubrious sections, mostly due to relative housing prices. Also, among the richer, Whiter residents there is a "birds of a feather" tendency that makes more socially-culturally-politically progressive rich people congregate in somewhat different areas than folks who are just as wealthy but more conservative.
    I called in October once, on my way to the deserts, very pleasant temperature. Only thing I remember is there was some kind of native american museum which was interesting.
  • Scott_xP said:
    Now retweeting conspiracy theories.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,413

    LadyG said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    EPG said:

    Charles said:

    Warning n=2

    I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.

    Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.

    Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀

    Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
    Dismiss it if you want.

    It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
    Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.

    Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.

    Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).

    Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
    Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)

    What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.

    (The son works for the RNC not Trump)
    Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".

    As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).

    AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.

    Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
    Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
    Median household income of $90k. Don’t know the nationwide stats but that seems solidly prosperous to me
    Median US household income is $74 000, so Orange County is well above average income even if not all super rich like Newport Beach

    https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2020/01/09/trends-in-income-and-wealth-inequality/
    Newport Beach is horrible and trashy though.

    Newport Coast is far smarter, Palos Verdes more glamorous and Laguna Beach classier.
    Newport Coast and Laguna Beach may be more old money and more comfortable for an Old Etonian like your good self than trashier new money Newport Beach but the polling I referred to just looked at income received not how old it was
    The “super rich” don’t live in Newport Beach. Their teenage kids hang out there when they want a good time
    The median house price in Newport Beach is over $2 million, seems pretty super rich to me

    https://www.zillow.com/newport-beach-ca/home-values/
    That's not super rich level in California.
    The richest place I have seen in California, in terms of luxury minus urban grime (a problem across America) is Indian Wells, Palm Springs.

    Even there, I got a sense of mild malaise. They have so much money they install exquisite fountains on streetcorners that no one will see (because everyone drives in air con due to the heat) and yet, no.

    It was like Monte Carlo with an invisible mould. And Monte Carlo is already quite gouty.

    For balance, London now feels like New York City in about 1972
    In 2016, CA state senate district that includes Palm Springs area, and gerrymandered to take in best GOP turf in Riverside County, voted
    Trump 48.5% Clinton 46.7% Johnson 3.1% Stein 1.3% La Riva 0.3%

    Further note while Trump won Indian Wells, La Quinta and Palm Desert (the last narrowly) he LOST Rancho Mirage (where Jerry Ford retired to), Desert Hot Springs, Palm Springs, Indio, Cathedral City and Coachella.
    Trump did win Indian Wells two-to-one.
    So he's super talented at tennis as well?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited August 2020
    Songs of States Battlefield & Not - anywhere west of Kansas City & east of Lake Tahoe

    SOMEDAY SOON
    Ian Tyson (and a multi-generation hit for Judy Collins)

    There’s a young man that I know, his age is twenty one
    Comes from down in southern Colorado
    Just out of the service and he’s lookin' for his fun
    Someday soon goin' with him someday soon

    My parents cannot stand him 'cause he rides the rodeo
    My father says that he will leave me cryin'
    I would follow him right down the toughest road I know
    Someday soon goin' with him someday soon

    And when he comes to call, my pa ain’t got a good word to say
    Guess it's 'cause he was just as wild in the younger days
    So blow you old blue northern, blow my love to me

    He’s drivin’ in tonight from California
    He loves his damned old rodeo as much as he loves me
    Someday soon goin' with him someday soon

    And when he comes to call, my pa ain’t got a word to say
    Guess it's 'cause he was just as wild in the younger days
    Blow you old blue northern, blow my love to me
    He’s drivin’ in tonight from California
    He loves his damned old rodeo as much as he loves me
    Someday soon goin' with him someday soon
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Scott_xP said:
    I was apoplectic about this last night, being over 50, and only just barely unlocking in last week or so, but the actual story does seem more nuanced. Over 50s get a risk assessment.

    Well, if it anything like the one posted from Scotland the other day then a healthy 50 - 62 year old would/should be told no need to shield.

    https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/advice-and-guidance/2020/07/coronavirus-covid-19-guidance-on-individual-risk-assessment-for-the-workplace/documents/occupational-risk-assessment-form-easy-read/occupational-risk-assessment-form-easy-read/govscot:document/Covid+Risk+Assessment+Form+-+Easy+Read+Version.pdf
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599

    Scott_xP said:
    Still whinging?

    People have more important issues to worry about. Get over it already, this is getting sad now.
    LOL, how much effort into something that would result in an £80 fixed penalty!
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,052
    edited August 2020
    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    EPG said:

    Charles said:

    Warning n=2

    I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.

    Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.

    Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀

    Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
    Dismiss it if you want.

    It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
    Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.

    Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.

    Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).

    Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
    Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)

    What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.

    (The son works for the RNC not Trump)
    Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".

    As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).

    AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.

    Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
    Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
    Median household income of $90k. Don’t know the nationwide stats but that seems solidly prosperous to me
    Median US household income is $74 000, so Orange County is well above average income even if not all super rich like Newport Beach

    https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2020/01/09/trends-in-income-and-wealth-inequality/
    Newport Beach is horrible and trashy though.

    Newport Coast is far smarter, Palos Verdes more glamorous and Laguna Beach classier.
    Newport Coast and Laguna Beach may be more old money and more comfortable for an Old Etonian like your good self than trashier new money Newport Beach but the polling I referred to just looked at income received not how old it was
    The “super rich” don’t live in Newport Beach. Their teenage kids hang out there when they want a good time
    The median house price in Newport Beach is over $2 million, seems pretty super rich to me

    https://www.zillow.com/newport-beach-ca/home-values/
    That’s the same as a 2 bedroom flat in prime London
    I know OC pretty well. The coast has some amazingly affluent areas, but much of the hinterland is just normal American suburbia (albeit in some of the most perfect weather anywhere in the world). Places like Costa Mesa ("close to Mexico") or Garden Grove ("Garbage Grove") verge on ghettoes in parts. But then, because it's LA, these things are always changing as one group moves out and another moves in.

    Palos Verdes that somebody mentions above is in LA County, on the other side of the Orange Curtain.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1290025174977269766/photo/1

    Ha, ha. :lol: Yeh, right. Will be sent this week. World beating ones as well.
  • Scott_xP said:
    Still whinging?

    People have more important issues to worry about. Get over it already, this is getting sad now.
    Utter obsession by Scott and others

  • isam said:

    Cameroon donor, Lib Dem and arch Remainer I believe

    https://twitter.com/dailymailuk/status/1289889951795097601?s=21

    What else is a businessman supposed to do if staff don't want to return to work?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,002

    Now retweeting

    No retweet
  • Scott_xP said:

    People have more important issues to worry about. Get over it already, this is getting sad now.

    Still touchy?
    You are obsessed. Get a life
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,608
    isam said:

    Cameroon donor, Lib Dem and arch Remainer I believe

    https://twitter.com/dailymailuk/status/1289889951795097601?s=21

    Remain? In my employment? No chance.....
  • https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1290025174977269766/photo/1

    Ha, ha. :lol: Yeh, right. Will be sent this week. World beating ones as well.

    That's great news. World beating rapid tests would be the next best thing to a vaccine.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,413

    Scott_xP said:
    I was apoplectic about this last night, being over 50, and only just barely unlocking in last week or so, but the actual story does seem more nuanced. Over 50s get a risk assessment.

    Well, if it anything like the one posted from Scotland the other day then a healthy 50 - 62 year old would/should be told no need to shield.

    https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/advice-and-guidance/2020/07/coronavirus-covid-19-guidance-on-individual-risk-assessment-for-the-workplace/documents/occupational-risk-assessment-form-easy-read/occupational-risk-assessment-form-easy-read/govscot:document/Covid+Risk+Assessment+Form+-+Easy+Read+Version.pdf
    Dramatic headline grossly simplifying nuanced story to generate clicks/outrage...
    It really isn't helping right now.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1290025174977269766/photo/1

    Ha, ha. :lol: Yeh, right. Will be sent this week. World beating ones as well.

    That's great news. World beating rapid tests would be the next best thing to a vaccine.
    Let's come back and review what actually happens at the end of the week.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,002
    The Cummings fanbois are easily triggered. Such sensitive souls...
  • Scott_xP said:

    Now retweeting

    No retweet
    Fair enough.

    Just the conspiracy theory, sorry.
  • Fishing said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    EPG said:

    Charles said:

    Warning n=2

    I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.

    Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.

    Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀

    Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
    Dismiss it if you want.

    It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
    Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.

    Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.

    Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).

    Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
    Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)

    What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.

    (The son works for the RNC not Trump)
    Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".

    As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).

    AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.

    Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
    Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
    Median household income of $90k. Don’t know the nationwide stats but that seems solidly prosperous to me
    Median US household income is $74 000, so Orange County is well above average income even if not all super rich like Newport Beach

    https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2020/01/09/trends-in-income-and-wealth-inequality/
    Newport Beach is horrible and trashy though.

    Newport Coast is far smarter, Palos Verdes more glamorous and Laguna Beach classier.
    Newport Coast and Laguna Beach may be more old money and more comfortable for an Old Etonian like your good self than trashier new money Newport Beach but the polling I referred to just looked at income received not how old it was
    The “super rich” don’t live in Newport Beach. Their teenage kids hang out there when they want a good time
    The median house price in Newport Beach is over $2 million, seems pretty super rich to me

    https://www.zillow.com/newport-beach-ca/home-values/
    That’s the same as a 2 bedroom flat in prime London
    I know OC pretty well. The coast has some amazingly affluent areas, but much of the hinterland is just normal American suburbia (albeit in some of the most perfect weather anywhere in the world). Places like Costa Mesa ("close to Mexico") or Garden Grove ("Garbage Grove") verge on ghettoes in parts. But then, because it's LA, these things are always changing as one group moves out and another moves in.

    Palos Verdes that somebody mentions above is in LA County, on the other side of the Orange Curtain.
    Years ago had an uncle - very conservative Republican, an engineer - who lived in Brea. It was NOT same then as it was when Dick Nixon was delivering papers or whatever, and am quite sure it is NOT the same as when my uncle & aunt lived there. As you say, always changing.
  • Scott_xP said:

    The Cummings fanbois are easily triggered. Such sensitive souls...

    I am no fan of Cummings and wanted his resignation but right now there are far more important issues to deal with than conspiracy theories by the likes of yourself who has become an obsessive anti Cummings disciple
  • https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1290025174977269766/photo/1

    Ha, ha. :lol: Yeh, right. Will be sent this week. World beating ones as well.

    That's great news. World beating rapid tests would be the next best thing to a vaccine.
    Let's come back and review what actually happens at the end of the week.
    Of course, but if rapid turnaround testing can be deployed and sent to care homes etc then that would be an amazing weapon in the arsenal of defeating this vaccine.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,608

    Scott_xP said:

    People have more important issues to worry about. Get over it already, this is getting sad now.

    Still touchy?
    You are obsessed. Get a life
    Scott serves a useful function. We can point to him and say

    "Children, this is how you will grow up if you don't eat your greens."

    Then watch them scoff their broccoli...
  • This site has been completely full of crap today
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,885
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:


    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Just came in to see @HYUFD embarrassing himself again

    Quite. Comparing polls with yes/no to indy with yes/mibbes aye mibbes naw/no to the Royal Family is rather taking the Tunnocks.

    I'd like to see a Scottish poll, WITHOUT a neutral option, which gives the Royal Family, from well-respected elders to ******* types, a positive vote of 54% as indy has now.

    Don't Know is not a neutral option.

    And the fact remains - the monarchy is (surprisingly) weaker here in Scotland than even in NI.

    But still a comfortable majority of Scots still want to keep the monarchy and there are now more Unionists in Scotland than Northern Ireland as the median Northern Irish voter votes Alliance which is non sectarian
    Majority? Comfortable?

    And you are confusing NI Unionist with Scottish Unionist voter. Not to mention that the population of Scotland is rather larger than NI. And you are probably counting Labour voters - many of whom are pro-Indy.
    Yes there are at least 15% more No to independence supporters in Scotland than Scottish republicans, even including Don't Knows
    I couldn't care about republicanism in Scotland - especially with your implicit equation of it with Irish republicanism (you'r doing what you always do and shifting the terms of reference).

    It is pretty irrelevant to the independence debate, or to the main point which is the weakness of the monarchy in Scotland relative to the rest of the UK.

    As I also recall from the absence of hysteria in Scotland when the then Duchess of Rothesay died in a car accident in Paris. It was actually an utter shock to see the reaction south of the Border.

    In my view, in any case, the RF is very much trading on past glories and HMtQ's reign - it will be very interesting to see what happens when the new KIng ascends the throne.
    To win over 50% Yes clearly needs to get some monarchists as only 28% of Scots are republicans, pushing for scrapping the monarchy as well as leaving the UK should ensure No wins again that is the point
    Oh yes, you could write a thread header on why the Tories in Scotland would lose if they advocated babyh-eating. But it would be just as irrelevant to current politics. You've moved the goalposts so far you are now playing camanachd when we started off with billiards.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    isam said:

    The man who dared to say Sweden’s Covid death rate was falling’s twitter thread made easier to read

    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1289946269142654977.html

    You seem really hung up that I correctly pointed out that Swedish death decrease had plateaued at one point. Even your Cricket Wyvern man says that happened.

    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1265980570816991235

  • stodge said:

    LadyG said:


    It's a fascinating and gorgeous part of the world. I love that desert heat throbbing off the mountains. I was there last year just before Coachella. The girls! My god.

    Palm Springs town centre is, however, to my mind, emblematic of America's urban problems. If this was a city in Spain or Portugal or Greece (similar climate) it would have endless tavernas under the palms, lots of cool marble boulevards, a culture of urban wandering.

    Instead it has about three nervous streetcorners with open air bars, surrounded by overwide streets blighted by drug addicts and dereliction. It is a place you don't want to walk through to get nowhere.

    It's mad. America is so rich. Why can't America sort out its town centres? Abolish the fucking cars. House the junkies. Be Barcelona. Not Caracas.

    Actually spent Christmas and New Year in Rancho Mirage once with Mrs Stodge and have been there three times.

    I wouldn't go in the heat of summer but in January it's a balmy 25c by day, the locals complain how cold it is and we are having breakfast al fresco on the terrace of the hotel.

    I love the area but Rancho is my favourite. Some really nice places to eat around Cat City as well.

    Saw in the New Year enjoying a chilled glass or three of Californian wine on the terrace.

    Plenty of "snowbirds" but mostly Canadians from the Prairie States - regular winter flights from Edmonton, Winnipeg and Calgary down to Palm Springs. We had no such good fortune but the drive from San Diego only takes a couple of hours.

    Palm Spring area also very popular with Pacific Northwesterners from both sides of the border.

    As resort area, naturally has a LARGE population of hospitality and other service workers, who are more plentiful in the less salubrious sections, mostly due to relative housing prices. Also, among the richer, Whiter residents there is a "birds of a feather" tendency that makes more socially-culturally-politically progressive rich people congregate in somewhat different areas than folks who are just as wealthy but more conservative.
    I called in October once, on my way to the deserts, very pleasant temperature. Only thing I remember is there was some kind of native american museum which was interesting.
    Has always been popular with artists, rich people, and rich artists. Back in 1920s Vita Sackville-West and Harold Nicolson visited Palm Springs on their joint book tour of America. They loved it. Back then there was more of a "western" vibe; they stayed at a gentile dude ranch, sang cowboy songs by the campfire, that sort of thing. And above all, the desert and the mountains.
  • Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:


    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Just came in to see @HYUFD embarrassing himself again

    Quite. Comparing polls with yes/no to indy with yes/mibbes aye mibbes naw/no to the Royal Family is rather taking the Tunnocks.

    I'd like to see a Scottish poll, WITHOUT a neutral option, which gives the Royal Family, from well-respected elders to ******* types, a positive vote of 54% as indy has now.

    Don't Know is not a neutral option.

    And the fact remains - the monarchy is (surprisingly) weaker here in Scotland than even in NI.

    But still a comfortable majority of Scots still want to keep the monarchy and there are now more Unionists in Scotland than Northern Ireland as the median Northern Irish voter votes Alliance which is non sectarian
    Majority? Comfortable?

    And you are confusing NI Unionist with Scottish Unionist voter. Not to mention that the population of Scotland is rather larger than NI. And you are probably counting Labour voters - many of whom are pro-Indy.
    Yes there are at least 15% more No to independence supporters in Scotland than Scottish republicans, even including Don't Knows
    I couldn't care about republicanism in Scotland - especially with your implicit equation of it with Irish republicanism (you'r doing what you always do and shifting the terms of reference).

    It is pretty irrelevant to the independence debate, or to the main point which is the weakness of the monarchy in Scotland relative to the rest of the UK.

    As I also recall from the absence of hysteria in Scotland when the then Duchess of Rothesay died in a car accident in Paris. It was actually an utter shock to see the reaction south of the Border.

    In my view, in any case, the RF is very much trading on past glories and HMtQ's reign - it will be very interesting to see what happens when the new KIng ascends the throne.
    To win over 50% Yes clearly needs to get some monarchists as only 28% of Scots are republicans, pushing for scrapping the monarchy as well as leaving the UK should ensure No wins again that is the point
    Oh yes, you could write a thread header on why the Tories in Scotland would lose if they advocated babyh-eating. But it would be just as irrelevant to current politics. You've moved the goalposts so far you are now playing camanachd when we started off with billiards.
    It would be a modest proposal on their part I feel.
  • stodge said:

    LadyG said:


    It's a fascinating and gorgeous part of the world. I love that desert heat throbbing off the mountains. I was there last year just before Coachella. The girls! My god.

    Palm Springs town centre is, however, to my mind, emblematic of America's urban problems. If this was a city in Spain or Portugal or Greece (similar climate) it would have endless tavernas under the palms, lots of cool marble boulevards, a culture of urban wandering.

    Instead it has about three nervous streetcorners with open air bars, surrounded by overwide streets blighted by drug addicts and dereliction. It is a place you don't want to walk through to get nowhere.

    It's mad. America is so rich. Why can't America sort out its town centres? Abolish the fucking cars. House the junkies. Be Barcelona. Not Caracas.

    Actually spent Christmas and New Year in Rancho Mirage once with Mrs Stodge and have been there three times.

    I wouldn't go in the heat of summer but in January it's a balmy 25c by day, the locals complain how cold it is and we are having breakfast al fresco on the terrace of the hotel.

    I love the area but Rancho is my favourite. Some really nice places to eat around Cat City as well.

    Saw in the New Year enjoying a chilled glass or three of Californian wine on the terrace.

    Plenty of "snowbirds" but mostly Canadians from the Prairie States - regular winter flights from Edmonton, Winnipeg and Calgary down to Palm Springs. We had no such good fortune but the drive from San Diego only takes a couple of hours.

    Palm Spring area also very popular with Pacific Northwesterners from both sides of the border.

    As resort area, naturally has a LARGE population of hospitality and other service workers, who are more plentiful in the less salubrious sections, mostly due to relative housing prices. Also, among the richer, Whiter residents there is a "birds of a feather" tendency that makes more socially-culturally-politically progressive rich people congregate in somewhat different areas than folks who are just as wealthy but more conservative.
    I called in October once, on my way to the deserts, very pleasant temperature. Only thing I remember is there was some kind of native american museum which was interesting.
    Has always been popular with artists, rich people, and rich artists. Back in 1920s Vita Sackville-West and Harold Nicolson visited Palm Springs on their joint book tour of America. They loved it. Back then there was more of a "western" vibe; they stayed at a gentile dude ranch, sang cowboy songs by the campfire, that sort of thing. And above all, the desert and the mountains.
    A gentile dude ranch? Isn’t that a bit anti Semitic?
  • stodge said:

    LadyG said:


    It's a fascinating and gorgeous part of the world. I love that desert heat throbbing off the mountains. I was there last year just before Coachella. The girls! My god.

    Palm Springs town centre is, however, to my mind, emblematic of America's urban problems. If this was a city in Spain or Portugal or Greece (similar climate) it would have endless tavernas under the palms, lots of cool marble boulevards, a culture of urban wandering.

    Instead it has about three nervous streetcorners with open air bars, surrounded by overwide streets blighted by drug addicts and dereliction. It is a place you don't want to walk through to get nowhere.

    It's mad. America is so rich. Why can't America sort out its town centres? Abolish the fucking cars. House the junkies. Be Barcelona. Not Caracas.

    Actually spent Christmas and New Year in Rancho Mirage once with Mrs Stodge and have been there three times.

    I wouldn't go in the heat of summer but in January it's a balmy 25c by day, the locals complain how cold it is and we are having breakfast al fresco on the terrace of the hotel.

    I love the area but Rancho is my favourite. Some really nice places to eat around Cat City as well.

    Saw in the New Year enjoying a chilled glass or three of Californian wine on the terrace.

    Plenty of "snowbirds" but mostly Canadians from the Prairie States - regular winter flights from Edmonton, Winnipeg and Calgary down to Palm Springs. We had no such good fortune but the drive from San Diego only takes a couple of hours.

    Palm Spring area also very popular with Pacific Northwesterners from both sides of the border.

    As resort area, naturally has a LARGE population of hospitality and other service workers, who are more plentiful in the less salubrious sections, mostly due to relative housing prices. Also, among the richer, Whiter residents there is a "birds of a feather" tendency that makes more socially-culturally-politically progressive rich people congregate in somewhat different areas than folks who are just as wealthy but more conservative.
    I called in October once, on my way to the deserts, very pleasant temperature. Only thing I remember is there was some kind of native american museum which was interesting.
    Has always been popular with artists, rich people, and rich artists. Back in 1920s Vita Sackville-West and Harold Nicolson visited Palm Springs on their joint book tour of America. They loved it. Back then there was more of a "western" vibe; they stayed at a gentile dude ranch, sang cowboy songs by the campfire, that sort of thing. And above all, the desert and the mountains.
    A gentile dude ranch? Isn’t that a bit anti Semitic?
    Sorry - genteel.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,908
    Story on Radio 4 just now that the BBC has received documents from an Iranian whistleblower that the death toll in Iran is at least 3 times the official figures.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Alistair said:

    isam said:

    The man who dared to say Sweden’s Covid death rate was falling’s twitter thread made easier to read

    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1289946269142654977.html

    You seem really hung up that I correctly pointed out that Swedish death decrease had plateaued at one point. Even your Cricket Wyvern man says that happened.

    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1265980570816991235

    This is worth a read if thinking about death rates in different countries.

    https://lockdownsceptics.org/manana-waves/
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    FFS to the tories not even realise who votes for them?
  • stodge said:

    LadyG said:


    It's a fascinating and gorgeous part of the world. I love that desert heat throbbing off the mountains. I was there last year just before Coachella. The girls! My god.

    Palm Springs town centre is, however, to my mind, emblematic of America's urban problems. If this was a city in Spain or Portugal or Greece (similar climate) it would have endless tavernas under the palms, lots of cool marble boulevards, a culture of urban wandering.

    Instead it has about three nervous streetcorners with open air bars, surrounded by overwide streets blighted by drug addicts and dereliction. It is a place you don't want to walk through to get nowhere.

    It's mad. America is so rich. Why can't America sort out its town centres? Abolish the fucking cars. House the junkies. Be Barcelona. Not Caracas.

    Actually spent Christmas and New Year in Rancho Mirage once with Mrs Stodge and have been there three times.

    I wouldn't go in the heat of summer but in January it's a balmy 25c by day, the locals complain how cold it is and we are having breakfast al fresco on the terrace of the hotel.

    I love the area but Rancho is my favourite. Some really nice places to eat around Cat City as well.

    Saw in the New Year enjoying a chilled glass or three of Californian wine on the terrace.

    Plenty of "snowbirds" but mostly Canadians from the Prairie States - regular winter flights from Edmonton, Winnipeg and Calgary down to Palm Springs. We had no such good fortune but the drive from San Diego only takes a couple of hours.

    Palm Spring area also very popular with Pacific Northwesterners from both sides of the border.

    As resort area, naturally has a LARGE population of hospitality and other service workers, who are more plentiful in the less salubrious sections, mostly due to relative housing prices. Also, among the richer, Whiter residents there is a "birds of a feather" tendency that makes more socially-culturally-politically progressive rich people congregate in somewhat different areas than folks who are just as wealthy but more conservative.
    I called in October once, on my way to the deserts, very pleasant temperature. Only thing I remember is there was some kind of native american museum which was interesting.
    Has always been popular with artists, rich people, and rich artists. Back in 1920s Vita Sackville-West and Harold Nicolson visited Palm Springs on their joint book tour of America. They loved it. Back then there was more of a "western" vibe; they stayed at a gentile dude ranch, sang cowboy songs by the campfire, that sort of thing. And above all, the desert and the mountains.
    A gentile dude ranch? Isn’t that a bit anti Semitic?
    Sorry - genteel.
    I don’t normally pick up on typos (unless I think I can make a joke: YMMV on how funny they are) but I couldn’t tell if you meant gentle, genteel or possibly genuine.

    The ways of Autocorrect pass all understanding.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Scott_xP said:
    I was apoplectic about this last night, being over 50, and only just barely unlocking in last week or so, but the actual story does seem more nuanced. Over 50s get a risk assessment.

    Well, if it anything like the one posted from Scotland the other day then a healthy 50 - 62 year old would/should be told no need to shield.

    https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/advice-and-guidance/2020/07/coronavirus-covid-19-guidance-on-individual-risk-assessment-for-the-workplace/documents/occupational-risk-assessment-form-easy-read/occupational-risk-assessment-form-easy-read/govscot:document/Covid+Risk+Assessment+Form+-+Easy+Read+Version.pdf
    There is an element of sensationalism here but not sitting on this story is doing the tories no good whatsoever.
  • On the subject of an MP being investigated by the Police on rape allegations, it seems the Police haven't named the MP yet. As such I don't think it would be appropriate for anyone else to do so either, which removing the whip does.

    If the Police decide there is sufficient evidence to charge someone and they name who it is then the whip should be suspended until the outcome of any resulting case. But if the Police determine that there is no case to answer and never name who this was, I don't think its anyone else's job to be doing so either.

    Let the Police deal with this professionally, not muckrakers.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Thank goodness we have Professor Carl Heneghan, who has today totally destroyed the government's whole case for these draconian and unnecessary measures by proving that case incidences are not really rising proportionally.
  • stodge said:

    LadyG said:


    It's a fascinating and gorgeous part of the world. I love that desert heat throbbing off the mountains. I was there last year just before Coachella. The girls! My god.

    Palm Springs town centre is, however, to my mind, emblematic of America's urban problems. If this was a city in Spain or Portugal or Greece (similar climate) it would have endless tavernas under the palms, lots of cool marble boulevards, a culture of urban wandering.

    Instead it has about three nervous streetcorners with open air bars, surrounded by overwide streets blighted by drug addicts and dereliction. It is a place you don't want to walk through to get nowhere.

    It's mad. America is so rich. Why can't America sort out its town centres? Abolish the fucking cars. House the junkies. Be Barcelona. Not Caracas.

    Actually spent Christmas and New Year in Rancho Mirage once with Mrs Stodge and have been there three times.

    I wouldn't go in the heat of summer but in January it's a balmy 25c by day, the locals complain how cold it is and we are having breakfast al fresco on the terrace of the hotel.

    I love the area but Rancho is my favourite. Some really nice places to eat around Cat City as well.

    Saw in the New Year enjoying a chilled glass or three of Californian wine on the terrace.

    Plenty of "snowbirds" but mostly Canadians from the Prairie States - regular winter flights from Edmonton, Winnipeg and Calgary down to Palm Springs. We had no such good fortune but the drive from San Diego only takes a couple of hours.

    Palm Spring area also very popular with Pacific Northwesterners from both sides of the border.

    As resort area, naturally has a LARGE population of hospitality and other service workers, who are more plentiful in the less salubrious sections, mostly due to relative housing prices. Also, among the richer, Whiter residents there is a "birds of a feather" tendency that makes more socially-culturally-politically progressive rich people congregate in somewhat different areas than folks who are just as wealthy but more conservative.
    I called in October once, on my way to the deserts, very pleasant temperature. Only thing I remember is there was some kind of native american museum which was interesting.
    Has always been popular with artists, rich people, and rich artists. Back in 1920s Vita Sackville-West and Harold Nicolson visited Palm Springs on their joint book tour of America. They loved it. Back then there was more of a "western" vibe; they stayed at a gentile dude ranch, sang cowboy songs by the campfire, that sort of thing. And above all, the desert and the mountains.
    A gentile dude ranch? Isn’t that a bit anti Semitic?
    Sorry - genteel.
    I don’t normally pick up on typos (unless I think I can make a joke: YMMV on how funny they are) but I couldn’t tell if you meant gentle, genteel or possibly genuine.

    The ways of Autocorrect pass all understanding.
    Can't blame autocorrect for my faux pas! AND distinction you point out IS relevant, as one could most definitely have stayed at a gentile (overt of covert) dude ranch in America for most of 20th century.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    Scott_xP said:
    I was apoplectic about this last night, being over 50, and only just barely unlocking in last week or so, but the actual story does seem more nuanced. Over 50s get a risk assessment.

    Well, if it anything like the one posted from Scotland the other day then a healthy 50 - 62 year old would/should be told no need to shield.

    https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/advice-and-guidance/2020/07/coronavirus-covid-19-guidance-on-individual-risk-assessment-for-the-workplace/documents/occupational-risk-assessment-form-easy-read/occupational-risk-assessment-form-easy-read/govscot:document/Covid+Risk+Assessment+Form+-+Easy+Read+Version.pdf
    There is an element of sensationalism here but not sitting on this story is doing the tories no good whatsoever.
    Someone who was wargaming locking up over 50s with Johnson last week must have briefed Tim Shipman in a lot of detail.

    Can't think who it might be.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    If he faces defeat, I wonder if Trump will turn out to be the monstrous, Nero-like figure for the fate of the US that is increasingly imagined, or whether he will simply turn away and start to curate his own myth and legend of the why election was stolen from him. There seems to be a pattern where he thrives on victimhood and self-righteousness more than the responsibility of the most spectacularly kind of destructive action, which he so often promises.

    In fact he's seemingly shied away from several such 'peak' actions so far, on Iran, Korea, the demonstrations, and much else. So far.

    Trump needs a legacy for good or for worse. Crashing the Constitution would get him into the history books.
    As they said in 2016, it was an historic election whoever won:

    The Brits have already had a female PM, a Jewish PM, a Canadian PM... Latino not so much of a thing over her but I guess Philip of Spain or Catherine of Braganza might count
    Isn’t the Queen descended from Spanish royalty?
    Yes but would be a stretch to call her Hispanic. She’s also descended from Mohammed, but I don’t think the Arabs see her as one of theirs!
    She’s also descended from Fergus the Great, but the Irish and Scots don’t see her as one of ours.
    She’s regarded with more affection that you think, you old grump
    In that case, Scots are world-champions at hiding their true emotions.

    Nope, doesn’t compute for me either.
    There is ***POLLING*** evidence that SD is right.

    The Scots are less royalist than most of the UK - including rather surprisingly NI (where you'd expect a built-in handicap).

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/16238128.poll-only-41-per-cent-of-scots-support-monarchy/

    [and the Herald is a Unionist newspaper, very much so, and was so by that time]

    Scots still backed the monarchy by 41% to 28% opposed
    So that is under half, including Don't Knows.
    Yes but even excluding don't knows no poll has Yes 13% ahead in Scotland as the monarchy is
    So just like the Independence polls. You know the ones - those where you keep including Don't Knows.
    Including or excluding don't knows the monarchy has a bigger lead in Scotland than Yes to independence
    Socialism = Personality Cult
    Monarchy = Personality Cult

    MONARCHY = SOCIALISM!
    No it doesn't, state control of the economy = socialism
    The state is doing some serious control of the economy right now.
    Socialism requires permanent nationalisation of most industries or at least state spending of more than 50% of gdp
  • The over 50s story has been briefed such that the Tories can actually do something else and it won't look as bad.

    They'll shaft the under 40s before they shaft the over 50s, after all us young folks don't vote Tory
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    The over 50s story has been briefed such that the Tories can actually do something else and it won't look as bad.

    They'll shaft the under 40s before they shaft the over 50s, after all us young folks don't vote Tory

    They'll lock down the under-40s instead? Somehow I doubt it.
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