If he faces defeat, I wonder if Trump will turn out to be the monstrous, Nero-like figure for the fate of the US that is increasingly imagined, or whether he will simply turn away and start to curate his own myth and legend of the why election was stolen from him. There seems to be a pattern where he thrives on victimhood and self-righteousness more than the responsibility of the most spectacularly kind of destructive action, which he so often promises.
In fact he's seemingly shied away from several such 'peak' actions so far, on Iran, Korea, the demonstrations, and much else. So far.
Trump needs a legacy for good or for worse. Crashing the Constitution would get him into the history books.
As they said in 2016, it was an historic election whoever won:
The Brits have already had a female PM, a Jewish PM, a Canadian PM... Latino not so much of a thing over her but I guess Philip of Spain or Catherine of Braganza might count
FWIW and that's probably not very much, new Covid-19 reported deaths today total just EIGHT. That being the case, why in God's name is Boris considering locking all the over 50's inside their own homes?
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
If he faces defeat, I wonder if Trump will turn out to be the monstrous, Nero-like figure for the fate of the US that is increasingly imagined, or whether he will simply turn away and start to curate his own myth and legend of the why election was stolen from him. There seems to be a pattern where he thrives on victimhood and self-righteousness more than the responsibility of the most spectacularly kind of destructive action, which he so often promises.
In fact he's seemingly shied away from several such 'peak' actions so far, on Iran, Korea, the demonstrations, and much else. So far.
Trump needs a legacy for good or for worse. Crashing the Constitution would get him into the history books.
As they said in 2016, it was an historic election whoever won:
The Brits have already had a female PM, a Jewish PM, a Canadian PM... Latino not so much of a thing over her but I guess Philip of Spain or Catherine of Braganza might count
Isabella of Castile was rather an interesting woman in her own right. Quarrelled with Edmund Duke of York after the birth of their son, and was exiled to Conisborough Castle in South Yorkshire, then mysteriously had a second son years after she last spoke to him. This obviously had nothing to do with the visit of Henry Holland Earl of Huntingdon nine months before. Nothing whatsoever. How could anyone even think that?
This son, known as Richard of Conisborough Earl of Cambridge. was left no lands or money by the Duke of York, so rebelled against Henry V and suffered the usual penalty of those who went against Henry V, losing his head. Apparently he cringed, whined and begged for mercy. Ironically, a few months later his elder brother was killed at Agincourt so if he had been patient he would have become the wealthiest and most powerful man in England.
To complicate matters further, that son’s son was the Richard Duke of York who claimed the throne of England in 1460 and therefore kicked off the official Wars of the Roses. But he had to claim the throne through his mother, as everyone knew his father was not descended from Edward III.
This incidentally is also why it is not in any way surprising that the male mitochondrial DNA in Richard III’s skeleton didn’t match the Dukes of Beaufort. There was no way it was ever going to. That’s not to say that there were not other false paternity incidents as well, of course.
FWIW and that's probably not very much, new Covid-19 reported deaths today total just EIGHT. That being the case, why in God's name is Boris considering locking all the over 50's inside their own homes?
Because deaths are a terrible indicator for current infections.
If he faces defeat, I wonder if Trump will turn out to be the monstrous, Nero-like figure for the fate of the US that is increasingly imagined, or whether he will simply turn away and start to curate his own myth and legend of the why election was stolen from him. There seems to be a pattern where he thrives on victimhood and self-righteousness more than the responsibility of the most spectacularly kind of destructive action, which he so often promises.
In fact he's seemingly shied away from several such 'peak' actions so far, on Iran, Korea, the demonstrations, and much else. So far.
Trump needs a legacy for good or for worse. Crashing the Constitution would get him into the history books.
As they said in 2016, it was an historic election whoever won:
The Brits have already had a female PM, a Jewish PM, a Canadian PM... Latino not so much of a thing over her but I guess Philip of Spain or Catherine of Braganza might count
Isabella of Castile was rather an interesting woman in her own right. Quarrelled with Edmund Duke of York after the birth of their son, and was exiled to Conisborough Castle in South Yorkshire, then mysteriously had a second son years after she last spoke to him. This obviously had nothing to do with the visit of Henry Holland Earl of Huntingdon nine months before. Nothing whatsoever. How could anyone even think that?
This son, known as Richard of Conisborough Earl of Cambridge. was left no lands or money by the Duke of York, so rebelled against Henry V and suffered the usual penalty of those who went against Henry V, losing his head. Apparently he cringed, whined and begged for mercy. Ironically, a few months later his elder brother was killed at Agincourt so if he had been patient he would have become the wealthiest and most powerful man in England.
To complicate matters further, that son’s son was the Richard Duke of York who claimed the throne of England in 1460 and therefore kicked off the official Wars of the Roses. But he had to claim the throne through his mother, as everyone knew his father was not descended from Edward III.
This incidentally is also why it is not in any way surprising that the male mitochondrial DNA in Richard III’s skeleton didn’t match the Dukes of Beaufort. There was no way it was ever going to. That’s not to say that there were not other false paternity incidents as well, of course.
Thanks for that!
Just to clarify: Richard III was the great-grand son?
FWIW and that's probably not very much, new Covid-19 reported deaths today total just EIGHT. That being the case, why in God's name is Boris considering locking all the over 50's inside their own homes?
Because that's what planning involves.
And if you can remeber all the way back to February/March we went from 0 infections to quite a lot of infections rather fast.
- Deaths are falling - Hospitalisations are falling - Numbers in hospital are falling - Cases are increasing
Can anyone suggest an alternative explanation to this -
We are seeing better targeted testing finding more mild/asymptomatic cases?
The pessimistic version is cases rising is the first sign that the relaxation of lockdown has gone too far and the other indicators will start edging up in a few days.
If he faces defeat, I wonder if Trump will turn out to be the monstrous, Nero-like figure for the fate of the US that is increasingly imagined, or whether he will simply turn away and start to curate his own myth and legend of the why election was stolen from him. There seems to be a pattern where he thrives on victimhood and self-righteousness more than the responsibility of the most spectacularly kind of destructive action, which he so often promises.
In fact he's seemingly shied away from several such 'peak' actions so far, on Iran, Korea, the demonstrations, and much else. So far.
Trump needs a legacy for good or for worse. Crashing the Constitution would get him into the history books.
As they said in 2016, it was an historic election whoever won:
The Brits have already had a female PM, a Jewish PM, a Canadian PM... Latino not so much of a thing over her but I guess Philip of Spain or Catherine of Braganza might count
Isn’t the Queen descended from Spanish royalty?
Yes but would be a stretch to call her Hispanic. She’s also descended from Mohammed, but I don’t think the Arabs see her as one of theirs!
She’s also descended from Fergus the Great, but the Irish and Scots don’t see her as one of ours.
Her mother was Scottish! She would have qualified to play football for Scotland.
So would Tony Blair, but both fail the duck test.
(Her father was German, but I don’t think the Germans see her as one of theirs.)
FWIW and that's probably not very much, new Covid-19 reported deaths today total just EIGHT. That being the case, why in God's name is Boris considering locking all the over 50's inside their own homes?
Because deaths are a terrible indicator for current infections.
FWIW and that's probably not very much, new Covid-19 reported deaths today total just EIGHT. That being the case, why in God's name is Boris considering locking all the over 50's inside their own homes?
Because that's what planning involves.
And if you can remeber all the way back to February/March we went from 0 infections to quite a lot of infections rather fast.
That is an artefact of the PHE all settings reporting system - our old friend "reporting day", not "day of death". Plus weekend effects.
On the weekend it drops to the Hospital deaths rate, more or less.
Come Tuesday, Wednesday - big numbers in the headlines.
For England deaths, all settings, we have the data by day of death
FWIW and that's probably not very much, new Covid-19 reported deaths today total just EIGHT. That being the case, why in God's name is Boris considering locking all the over 50's inside their own homes?
Because he isn’t. Those headlines came from scenarios that are being wargamed in case we get a massive spike in cases.
- Deaths are falling - Hospitalisations are falling - Numbers in hospital are falling - Cases are increasing
Can anyone suggest an alternative explanation to this -
We are seeing better targeted testing finding more mild/asymptomatic cases?
Age distribution of those infected is different?
Of course, we could be seeing both better testing and more transmission amongst younger people going on here.
The continuous drop in the numbers hospitalised is, of course, good news. If the numbers of positive tests started to trend downwards again as well then that would be even better. But I'm still concerned that the wheels will start to fall off come September, because schools.
FWIW and that's probably not very much, new Covid-19 reported deaths today total just EIGHT. That being the case, why in God's name is Boris considering locking all the over 50's inside their own homes?
Because he isn’t. Those headlines came from scenarios that are being wargamed in case we get a massive spike in cases.
Yes.
It is always worth looking at this -
The take off was extremely rapid, once it gets into the exponential zone.
- Deaths are falling - Hospitalisations are falling - Numbers in hospital are falling - Cases are increasing
Can anyone suggest an alternative explanation to this -
We are seeing better targeted testing finding more mild/asymptomatic cases?
A combination of much more testing, catching cases earlier, better treatments, and the virus going around young and fit people who are over-socialising rather than care homes and hospitals.
If he faces defeat, I wonder if Trump will turn out to be the monstrous, Nero-like figure for the fate of the US that is increasingly imagined, or whether he will simply turn away and start to curate his own myth and legend of the why election was stolen from him. There seems to be a pattern where he thrives on victimhood and self-righteousness more than the responsibility of the most spectacularly kind of destructive action, which he so often promises.
In fact he's seemingly shied away from several such 'peak' actions so far, on Iran, Korea, the demonstrations, and much else. So far.
Trump needs a legacy for good or for worse. Crashing the Constitution would get him into the history books.
As they said in 2016, it was an historic election whoever won:
The Brits have already had a female PM, a Jewish PM, a Canadian PM... Latino not so much of a thing over her but I guess Philip of Spain or Catherine of Braganza might count
Isn’t the Queen descended from Spanish royalty?
Yes but would be a stretch to call her Hispanic. She’s also descended from Mohammed, but I don’t think the Arabs see her as one of theirs!
She’s also descended from Fergus the Great, but the Irish and Scots don’t see her as one of ours.
Her mother was Scottish! She would have qualified to play football for Scotland.
So would Tony Blair, but both fail the duck test.
(Her father was German, but I don’t think the Germans see her as one of theirs.)
What have ducks got to do with football? Are you confusing it with cricket?
You say the Queen’s father was German: that’s a bit of gossip I have not heard. Who do you think it was?
If he faces defeat, I wonder if Trump will turn out to be the monstrous, Nero-like figure for the fate of the US that is increasingly imagined, or whether he will simply turn away and start to curate his own myth and legend of the why election was stolen from him. There seems to be a pattern where he thrives on victimhood and self-righteousness more than the responsibility of the most spectacularly kind of destructive action, which he so often promises.
In fact he's seemingly shied away from several such 'peak' actions so far, on Iran, Korea, the demonstrations, and much else. So far.
Trump needs a legacy for good or for worse. Crashing the Constitution would get him into the history books.
As they said in 2016, it was an historic election whoever won:
The Brits have already had a female PM, a Jewish PM, a Canadian PM... Latino not so much of a thing over her but I guess Philip of Spain or Catherine of Braganza might count
Isn’t the Queen descended from Spanish royalty?
Yes but would be a stretch to call her Hispanic. She’s also descended from Mohammed, but I don’t think the Arabs see her as one of theirs!
She’s also descended from Fergus the Great, but the Irish and Scots don’t see her as one of ours.
She’s regarded with more affection that you think, you old grump
In that case, Scots are world-champions at hiding their true emotions.
- Deaths are falling - Hospitalisations are falling - Numbers in hospital are falling - Cases are increasing
Can anyone suggest an alternative explanation to this -
We are seeing better targeted testing finding more mild/asymptomatic cases?
The pessimistic version is cases rising is the first sign that the relaxation of lockdown has gone too far and the other indicators will start edging up in a few days.
I’m hoping you are right.
Cases have been slowly rising for a month
Yet at the same time, the other indicators have continued to fall.
So, if we are not seeing detection of less serious cases, how does this make sense?
Just to clarify: Richard III was the great-grand son?
The family tree was:
Edward III Edmund of Langley, m Isabella Richard of Conisborough m Anne Mortimer, grand daughter of Lionel, Duke of Clarence, 2nd son of Edward III Richard of York Richard III
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
FWIW and that's probably not very much, new Covid-19 reported deaths today total just EIGHT. That being the case, why in God's name is Boris considering locking all the over 50's inside their own homes?
Because he isn’t. Those headlines came from scenarios that are being wargamed in case we get a massive spike in cases.
And if that scenario ever arises I expect it both to be rightly ignored by most and declared illegal in pretty short order. Can you imagine the same scenario if you substituted BAME people for over 50's. It would fall foul of discrimination rules so will trying to put over 50's under house arrest
If he faces defeat, I wonder if Trump will turn out to be the monstrous, Nero-like figure for the fate of the US that is increasingly imagined, or whether he will simply turn away and start to curate his own myth and legend of the why election was stolen from him. There seems to be a pattern where he thrives on victimhood and self-righteousness more than the responsibility of the most spectacularly kind of destructive action, which he so often promises.
In fact he's seemingly shied away from several such 'peak' actions so far, on Iran, Korea, the demonstrations, and much else. So far.
Trump needs a legacy for good or for worse. Crashing the Constitution would get him into the history books.
As they said in 2016, it was an historic election whoever won:
The Brits have already had a female PM, a Jewish PM, a Canadian PM... Latino not so much of a thing over her but I guess Philip of Spain or Catherine of Braganza might count
Isn’t the Queen descended from Spanish royalty?
Yes but would be a stretch to call her Hispanic. She’s also descended from Mohammed, but I don’t think the Arabs see her as one of theirs!
She’s also descended from Fergus the Great, but the Irish and Scots don’t see her as one of ours.
She’s regarded with more affection that you think, you old grump
In that case, Scots are world-champions at hiding their true emotions.
Nope, doesn’t compute for me either.
There is ***POLLING*** evidence that SD is right.
The Scots are less royalist than most of the UK - including rather surprisingly NI (where you'd expect a built-in handicap).
If he faces defeat, I wonder if Trump will turn out to be the monstrous, Nero-like figure for the fate of the US that is increasingly imagined, or whether he will simply turn away and start to curate his own myth and legend of the why election was stolen from him. There seems to be a pattern where he thrives on victimhood and self-righteousness more than the responsibility of the most spectacularly kind of destructive action, which he so often promises.
In fact he's seemingly shied away from several such 'peak' actions so far, on Iran, Korea, the demonstrations, and much else. So far.
Trump needs a legacy for good or for worse. Crashing the Constitution would get him into the history books.
As they said in 2016, it was an historic election whoever won:
The Brits have already had a female PM, a Jewish PM, a Canadian PM... Latino not so much of a thing over her but I guess Philip of Spain or Catherine of Braganza might count
Isn’t the Queen descended from Spanish royalty?
Yes but would be a stretch to call her Hispanic. She’s also descended from Mohammed, but I don’t think the Arabs see her as one of theirs!
She’s also descended from Fergus the Great, but the Irish and Scots don’t see her as one of ours.
She’s regarded with more affection that you think, you old grump
In that case, Scots are world-champions at hiding their true emotions.
Any PBers think the Democrats have a fighting chance of winning Texas to justify their current odds of 2.75 (aka 7/4)? My thinking is that Trump will probably be badly damaged by the particularly bad Covid-19 experience there.
My own view is that Democrats will make great strides in the Lone Star State this year - for example, think we will take the Texas House of Representatives for first time in a generation - BUT will NOT win statewide voter for President, nor for Governor or US Senator.
FWIW and that's probably not very much, new Covid-19 reported deaths today total just EIGHT. That being the case, why in God's name is Boris considering locking all the over 50's inside their own homes?
Because he isn’t. Those headlines came from scenarios that are being wargamed in case we get a massive spike in cases.
And if that scenario ever arises I expect it both to be rightly ignored by most and declared illegal in pretty short order. Can you imagine the same scenario if you substituted BAME people for over 50's. It would fall foul of discrimination rules so will trying to put over 50's under house arrest
That logic doesn't work. It is legal to "discriminate" against disabled people for health reasons - you wouldn't make a deaf person do things which depended on good hearing of a kind not possessed.
- Deaths are falling - Hospitalisations are falling - Numbers in hospital are falling - Cases are increasing
Can anyone suggest an alternative explanation to this -
We are seeing better targeted testing finding more mild/asymptomatic cases?
The pessimistic version is cases rising is the first sign that the relaxation of lockdown has gone too far and the other indicators will start edging up in a few days.
I’m hoping you are right.
Cases have been slowly rising for a month
Yet at the same time, the other indicators have continued to fall.
So, if we are not seeing detection of less serious cases, how does this make sense?
- Deaths are falling - Hospitalisations are falling - Numbers in hospital are falling - Cases are increasing
Can anyone suggest an alternative explanation to this -
We are seeing better targeted testing finding more mild/asymptomatic cases?
The pessimistic version is cases rising is the first sign that the relaxation of lockdown has gone too far and the other indicators will start edging up in a few days.
I’m hoping you are right.
Cases have been slowly rising for a month
Yet at the same time, the other indicators have continued to fall.
So, if we are not seeing detection of less serious cases, how does this make sense?
That chart looks like rising in one, maybe 2 regions.
FWIW and that's probably not very much, new Covid-19 reported deaths today total just EIGHT. That being the case, why in God's name is Boris considering locking all the over 50's inside their own homes?
Because he isn’t. Those headlines came from scenarios that are being wargamed in case we get a massive spike in cases.
And if that scenario ever arises I expect it both to be rightly ignored by most and declared illegal in pretty short order. Can you imagine the same scenario if you substituted BAME people for over 50's. It would fall foul of discrimination rules so will trying to put over 50's under house arrest
That logic doesn't work. It is legal to "discriminate" against disabled people for health reasons - you wouldn't make a deaf person do things which depended on good hearing of a kind not possessed.
I think the reporting is being interpreted wrongly here. The suggestion is that, in the event of there being a further, nationwide lockdown that all over-50s could be sent a personalised risk assessment (based on medical records) and appropriate level of shielding. No indication whether this would be guideline or regulation. Makes sense to me.
FWIW and that's probably not very much, new Covid-19 reported deaths today total just EIGHT. That being the case, why in God's name is Boris considering locking all the over 50's inside their own homes?
Because he isn’t. Those headlines came from scenarios that are being wargamed in case we get a massive spike in cases.
And if that scenario ever arises I expect it both to be rightly ignored by most and declared illegal in pretty short order. Can you imagine the same scenario if you substituted BAME people for over 50's. It would fall foul of discrimination rules so will trying to put over 50's under house arrest
That logic doesn't work. It is legal to "discriminate" against disabled people for health reasons - you wouldn't make a deaf person do things which depended on good hearing of a kind not possessed.
I think the reporting is being interpreted wrongly here. The suggestion is that, in the event of there being a further, nationwide lockdown that all over-50s could be sent a personalised risk assessment (based on medical records) and appropriate level of shielding. No indication whether this would be guideline or regulation. Makes sense to me.
Since it appears that the weather at bilberry central (circa 1980s) is going to be wet, wet, wet, hot (calm down, LadyG) - Thursday early may be the best day for a bilberry hunt.
Meanwhile, @ Mr Mothman - any chance of the Daily Moth resuming?.
Net public approval of the government’s handling of the crisis slumped from minus-14 to minus-18 over the last week, with just 30 per cent saying they approved of its performance, against 48 per cent who did not.
FWIW and that's probably not very much, new Covid-19 reported deaths today total just EIGHT. That being the case, why in God's name is Boris considering locking all the over 50's inside their own homes?
He’s not “considering” it.
It was a scenario in a war game. And so it should be.
FWIW and that's probably not very much, new Covid-19 reported deaths today total just EIGHT. That being the case, why in God's name is Boris considering locking all the over 50's inside their own homes?
Because he isn’t. Those headlines came from scenarios that are being wargamed in case we get a massive spike in cases.
And if that scenario ever arises I expect it both to be rightly ignored by most and declared illegal in pretty short order. Can you imagine the same scenario if you substituted BAME people for over 50's. It would fall foul of discrimination rules so will trying to put over 50's under house arrest
The alternative will be putting EVERYONE back under house arrest. See Melbourne for details.
Big change in the age profile of detected cases....
The question is why that change? Old people all in hiding? Or are we just finding the younger people with the virus?
Perhaps it is no longer circulating in nursing homes any more?
FWIW, my understanding is that deaths in nursing homes as well as hospitals in England and Wales have been below the five-year average for some weeks. Excess deaths are now accounted for entirely by those expiring in private residences.
FWIW and that's probably not very much, new Covid-19 reported deaths today total just EIGHT. That being the case, why in God's name is Boris considering locking all the over 50's inside their own homes?
Because he isn’t. Those headlines came from scenarios that are being wargamed in case we get a massive spike in cases.
And if that scenario ever arises I expect it both to be rightly ignored by most and declared illegal in pretty short order. Can you imagine the same scenario if you substituted BAME people for over 50's. It would fall foul of discrimination rules so will trying to put over 50's under house arrest
The alternative will be putting EVERYONE back under house arrest. See Melbourne for details.
If you had scientific evidence of a group being more vulnerable to a disease - and we have this for age and COVID19 - then it would be legal to take different action by age group.
In fact, it could be argued that not taking action to protect the vulnerable group would be illegal.
FWIW and that's probably not very much, new Covid-19 reported deaths today total just EIGHT. That being the case, why in God's name is Boris considering locking all the over 50's inside their own homes?
Because he isn’t. Those headlines came from scenarios that are being wargamed in case we get a massive spike in cases.
And if that scenario ever arises I expect it both to be rightly ignored by most and declared illegal in pretty short order. Can you imagine the same scenario if you substituted BAME people for over 50's. It would fall foul of discrimination rules so will trying to put over 50's under house arrest
That logic doesn't work. It is legal to "discriminate" against disabled people for health reasons - you wouldn't make a deaf person do things which depended on good hearing of a kind not possessed.
I think the reporting is being interpreted wrongly here. The suggestion is that, in the event of there being a further, nationwide lockdown that all over-50s could be sent a personalised risk assessment (based on medical records) and appropriate level of shielding. No indication whether this would be guideline or regulation. Makes sense to me.
Me too.
It's my understanding that there is more evidence now about what medical conditions are actually a factor in risk.
A couple of people, that I know personally, have been re-assessed medically and told that their medical contains are not risk factors. Hence they are off the shielding list.
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
If he faces defeat, I wonder if Trump will turn out to be the monstrous, Nero-like figure for the fate of the US that is increasingly imagined, or whether he will simply turn away and start to curate his own myth and legend of the why election was stolen from him. There seems to be a pattern where he thrives on victimhood and self-righteousness more than the responsibility of the most spectacularly kind of destructive action, which he so often promises.
In fact he's seemingly shied away from several such 'peak' actions so far, on Iran, Korea, the demonstrations, and much else. So far.
Trump needs a legacy for good or for worse. Crashing the Constitution would get him into the history books.
As they said in 2016, it was an historic election whoever won:
The Brits have already had a female PM, a Jewish PM, a Canadian PM... Latino not so much of a thing over her but I guess Philip of Spain or Catherine of Braganza might count
Isn’t the Queen descended from Spanish royalty?
Yes but would be a stretch to call her Hispanic. She’s also descended from Mohammed, but I don’t think the Arabs see her as one of theirs!
She’s also descended from Fergus the Great, but the Irish and Scots don’t see her as one of ours.
She’s regarded with more affection that you think, you old grump
In that case, Scots are world-champions at hiding their true emotions.
Nope, doesn’t compute for me either.
This appears fairly balanced (although didn’t spot a link to the survey they mentioned)
Monarchy has majority support. Queen more popular than other members of the family. (From recollection Anne is popular the others not so much). Strong streak of republicanism in the SNP although they are careful about picking that fight for now. Some areas of Scotland are 50/50 on pro/anti Monarchy
If he faces defeat, I wonder if Trump will turn out to be the monstrous, Nero-like figure for the fate of the US that is increasingly imagined, or whether he will simply turn away and start to curate his own myth and legend of the why election was stolen from him. There seems to be a pattern where he thrives on victimhood and self-righteousness more than the responsibility of the most spectacularly kind of destructive action, which he so often promises.
In fact he's seemingly shied away from several such 'peak' actions so far, on Iran, Korea, the demonstrations, and much else. So far.
Trump needs a legacy for good or for worse. Crashing the Constitution would get him into the history books.
As they said in 2016, it was an historic election whoever won:
The Brits have already had a female PM, a Jewish PM, a Canadian PM... Latino not so much of a thing over her but I guess Philip of Spain or Catherine of Braganza might count
Isn’t the Queen descended from Spanish royalty?
Yes but would be a stretch to call her Hispanic. She’s also descended from Mohammed, but I don’t think the Arabs see her as one of theirs!
She’s also descended from Fergus the Great, but the Irish and Scots don’t see her as one of ours.
She’s regarded with more affection that you think, you old grump
In that case, Scots are world-champions at hiding their true emotions.
Nope, doesn’t compute for me either.
There is ***POLLING*** evidence that SD is right.
The Scots are less royalist than most of the UK - including rather surprisingly NI (where you'd expect a built-in handicap).
Big change in the age profile of detected cases....
The question is why that change? Old people all in hiding? Or are we just finding the younger people with the virus?
Perhaps it is no longer circulating in nursing homes any more?
FWIW, my understanding is that deaths in nursing homes as well as hospitals in England and Wales have been below the five-year average for some weeks. Excess deaths are now accounted for entirely by those expiring in private residences.
Hmmmm
Imagine a cultural group, where the elderly moving to a nursing home is a non-starter. Instead, they live in the same house - aka multi-generational living.
- Deaths are falling - Hospitalisations are falling - Numbers in hospital are falling - Cases are increasing
Can anyone suggest an alternative explanation to this -
We are seeing better targeted testing finding more mild/asymptomatic cases?
The pessimistic version is cases rising is the first sign that the relaxation of lockdown has gone too far and the other indicators will start edging up in a few days.
I’m hoping you are right.
Cases have been slowly rising for a month
Yet at the same time, the other indicators have continued to fall.
So, if we are not seeing detection of less serious cases, how does this make sense?
That chart looks like rising in one, maybe 2 regions.
Squinting at that multi-coloured chart makes it look suspiciously as if the rise is the product of shenanigans in the North West, which would be wholly consistent with the pattern of local restrictions we are now seeing (and yes, I know that some of the W Yorks authorities are getting dragged into it as well, but they constitute a smaller proportion of the statistical region in which they reside than does the entirety of GM + much of E Lancs.)
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Dems were very good at “vote harvesting” in 2018. They were canvassing with a focus on non-voting registered Democrats.
My friends were shocked. I didn’t tell them that it seemed like politics 101 To me and if the GOP wasn’t doing that then they darn well ought to be!
FWIW and that's probably not very much, new Covid-19 reported deaths today total just EIGHT. That being the case, why in God's name is Boris considering locking all the over 50's inside their own homes?
He’s not “considering” it.
It was a scenario in a war game. And so it should be.
If he faces defeat, I wonder if Trump will turn out to be the monstrous, Nero-like figure for the fate of the US that is increasingly imagined, or whether he will simply turn away and start to curate his own myth and legend of the why election was stolen from him. There seems to be a pattern where he thrives on victimhood and self-righteousness more than the responsibility of the most spectacularly kind of destructive action, which he so often promises.
In fact he's seemingly shied away from several such 'peak' actions so far, on Iran, Korea, the demonstrations, and much else. So far.
Trump needs a legacy for good or for worse. Crashing the Constitution would get him into the history books.
As they said in 2016, it was an historic election whoever won:
The Brits have already had a female PM, a Jewish PM, a Canadian PM... Latino not so much of a thing over her but I guess Philip of Spain or Catherine of Braganza might count
Isn’t the Queen descended from Spanish royalty?
Yes but would be a stretch to call her Hispanic. She’s also descended from Mohammed, but I don’t think the Arabs see her as one of theirs!
She’s also descended from Fergus the Great, but the Irish and Scots don’t see her as one of ours.
She’s regarded with more affection that you think, you old grump
In that case, Scots are world-champions at hiding their true emotions.
Nope, doesn’t compute for me either.
This appears fairly balanced (although didn’t spot a link to the survey they mentioned)
Monarchy has majority support. Queen more popular than other members of the family. (From recollection Anne is popular the others not so much). Strong streak of republicanism in the SNP although they are careful about picking that fight for now. Some areas of Scotland are 50/50 on pro/anti Monarchy
However, the question of the monarchy is independent (so to speak) of independence - Australia for instance still has the Queen as Head of State.
But there was one very interesting phenomenon a few years back when the Diamond Jubilee or some such event came round. There were lots of street parties in England, but almost none at all in Scotland (possibly the more monarchist corners of Lanarkshire and Morningside). ANd that wasn't the weather, either.
FWIW and that's probably not very much, new Covid-19 reported deaths today total just EIGHT. That being the case, why in God's name is Boris considering locking all the over 50's inside their own homes?
He’s not “considering” it.
It was a scenario in a war game. And so it should be.
But it's a scenario that some bright spark decided to.leak to the press, which makes a difference.
I imagine it was a "run it up the flagpole and see if anyone salutes" job. A low cost way of getting feedback, but not confidence - inspiring.
BREAKING: Major incident declared as Greater Manchester Coronavirus rates continue to rise
EXCLUSIVE: New data shows numbers still climbing, with particularly big spikes in Manchester, Tameside and Oldham
....Insiders say the continued increases are not related to Eid, which only began on Friday so cannot realistically have contributed to the rise.
One said mosques have been compliant with the new measures and that the rise is down to continued household transmission across all communities, as well as younger people not observing social distancing measures.
In Manchester, the highest number of cases is understood to be in Crumpsall.
Hospital admissions are said to remain stable regionwide, however, with one official describing them as ‘really low across GM’.
“It’s younger people now, and not ill enough to be in hospital,” they said of those testing positive.
If he faces defeat, I wonder if Trump will turn out to be the monstrous, Nero-like figure for the fate of the US that is increasingly imagined, or whether he will simply turn away and start to curate his own myth and legend of the why election was stolen from him. There seems to be a pattern where he thrives on victimhood and self-righteousness more than the responsibility of the most spectacularly kind of destructive action, which he so often promises.
In fact he's seemingly shied away from several such 'peak' actions so far, on Iran, Korea, the demonstrations, and much else. So far.
Trump needs a legacy for good or for worse. Crashing the Constitution would get him into the history books.
As they said in 2016, it was an historic election whoever won:
The Brits have already had a female PM, a Jewish PM, a Canadian PM... Latino not so much of a thing over her but I guess Philip of Spain or Catherine of Braganza might count
Isn’t the Queen descended from Spanish royalty?
Yes but would be a stretch to call her Hispanic. She’s also descended from Mohammed, but I don’t think the Arabs see her as one of theirs!
She’s also descended from Fergus the Great, but the Irish and Scots don’t see her as one of ours.
She’s regarded with more affection that you think, you old grump
In that case, Scots are world-champions at hiding their true emotions.
Nope, doesn’t compute for me either.
There is ***POLLING*** evidence that SD is right.
The Scots are less royalist than most of the UK - including rather surprisingly NI (where you'd expect a built-in handicap).
Big change in the age profile of detected cases....
The question is why that change? Old people all in hiding? Or are we just finding the younger people with the virus?
Perhaps it is no longer circulating in nursing homes any more?
FWIW, my understanding is that deaths in nursing homes as well as hospitals in England and Wales have been below the five-year average for some weeks. Excess deaths are now accounted for entirely by those expiring in private residences.
Hmmmm
Imagine a cultural group, where the elderly moving to a nursing home is a non-starter. Instead, they live in the same house - aka multi-generational living.
So they die at home, when they die.
I wonder whether such cultural groups will have turned out to have treated their elders in a more human manner than the groups that put them in corporate or charity care homes...
Big change in the age profile of detected cases....
The question is why that change? Old people all in hiding? Or are we just finding the younger people with the virus?
Perhaps it is no longer circulating in nursing homes any more?
FWIW, my understanding is that deaths in nursing homes as well as hospitals in England and Wales have been below the five-year average for some weeks. Excess deaths are now accounted for entirely by those expiring in private residences.
Hmmmm
Imagine a cultural group, where the elderly moving to a nursing home is a non-starter. Instead, they live in the same house - aka multi-generational living.
So they die at home, when they die.
Possibly, but to assess that theory we would need to know the geographic distribution of excess deaths in the home. If it is evenly spread then that suggests the main problem may be with people dying of other treatable conditions due to the health service prioritising Covid and/or patients still being too frightened to seek medical attention.
If, on the other hand, it's slanted towards localities that are also subject to special restrictions or under threat of them, well...
BREAKING: Major incident declared as Greater Manchester Coronavirus rates continue to rise
EXCLUSIVE: New data shows numbers still climbing, with particularly big spikes in Manchester, Tameside and Oldham
....Insiders say the continued increases are not related to Eid, which only began on Friday so cannot realistically have contributed to the rise.
One said mosques have been compliant with the new measures and that the rise is down to continued household transmission across all communities, as well as younger people not observing social distancing measures.
In Manchester, the highest number of cases is understood to be in Crumpsall.
Hospital admissions are said to remain stable regionwide, however, with one official describing them as ‘really low across GM’.
“It’s younger people now, and not ill enough to be in hospital,” they said of those testing positive.
Interesting there have been problems in Manchester and Leicester, but not Birmingham. Maybe proof that Brummies aren't as thick as people like to think.
Big change in the age profile of detected cases....
The question is why that change? Old people all in hiding? Or are we just finding the younger people with the virus?
Perhaps it is no longer circulating in nursing homes any more?
FWIW, my understanding is that deaths in nursing homes as well as hospitals in England and Wales have been below the five-year average for some weeks. Excess deaths are now accounted for entirely by those expiring in private residences.
Occupancy bouncing at around 80% although showing some signs of recovery. Private sector much slower to recover than public sector.
Suspect numbers are influenced by sick elderly private patients staying at home longer... but by how much?
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Dems were very good at “vote harvesting” in 2018. They were canvassing with a focus on non-voting registered Democrats.
My friends were shocked. I didn’t tell them that it seemed like politics 101 To me and if the GOP wasn’t doing that then they darn well ought to be!
Supposedly boosting GOP turnout is one of the specialties of Trumpsky's new campaign manager Bill Stepien.
That is, when he is NOT focused on traffic control, as with former Governor and current has-been Chris Christie and the Bridgegate scandal.
- Deaths are falling - Hospitalisations are falling - Numbers in hospital are falling - Cases are increasing
Can anyone suggest an alternative explanation to this -
We are seeing better targeted testing finding more mild/asymptomatic cases?
The pessimistic version is cases rising is the first sign that the relaxation of lockdown has gone too far and the other indicators will start edging up in a few days.
I’m hoping you are right.
Cases have been slowly rising for a month
Yet at the same time, the other indicators have continued to fall.
So, if we are not seeing detection of less serious cases, how does this make sense?
That chart looks like rising in one, maybe 2 regions.
Squinting at that multi-coloured chart makes it look suspiciously as if the rise is the product of shenanigans in the North West, which would be wholly consistent with the pattern of local restrictions we are now seeing (and yes, I know that some of the W Yorks authorities are getting dragged into it as well, but they constitute a smaller proportion of the statistical region in which they reside than does the entirety of GM + much of E Lancs.)
BREAKING: Major incident declared as Greater Manchester Coronavirus rates continue to rise
EXCLUSIVE: New data shows numbers still climbing, with particularly big spikes in Manchester, Tameside and Oldham
....Insiders say the continued increases are not related to Eid, which only began on Friday so cannot realistically have contributed to the rise.
One said mosques have been compliant with the new measures and that the rise is down to continued household transmission across all communities, as well as younger people not observing social distancing measures.
In Manchester, the highest number of cases is understood to be in Crumpsall.
Hospital admissions are said to remain stable regionwide, however, with one official describing them as ‘really low across GM’.
“It’s younger people now, and not ill enough to be in hospital,” they said of those testing positive.
Interesting there have been problems in both Manchester and Leicester, but not Birmingham. Maybe proof that Brummies aren't as thick as people like to think.
This article in today's Sunday Times says they are expecting a new Covid-19 tsunami in Birmingham
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
The MEDIAN income in OC is $90k...
The position than the Nixon family takes will have much more impact on the vote than your nationwide polling report from a few weeks ago
If he faces defeat, I wonder if Trump will turn out to be the monstrous, Nero-like figure for the fate of the US that is increasingly imagined, or whether he will simply turn away and start to curate his own myth and legend of the why election was stolen from him. There seems to be a pattern where he thrives on victimhood and self-righteousness more than the responsibility of the most spectacularly kind of destructive action, which he so often promises.
In fact he's seemingly shied away from several such 'peak' actions so far, on Iran, Korea, the demonstrations, and much else. So far.
Trump needs a legacy for good or for worse. Crashing the Constitution would get him into the history books.
As they said in 2016, it was an historic election whoever won:
The Brits have already had a female PM, a Jewish PM, a Canadian PM... Latino not so much of a thing over her but I guess Philip of Spain or Catherine of Braganza might count
Isn’t the Queen descended from Spanish royalty?
Yes but would be a stretch to call her Hispanic. She’s also descended from Mohammed, but I don’t think the Arabs see her as one of theirs!
She’s also descended from Fergus the Great, but the Irish and Scots don’t see her as one of ours.
She’s regarded with more affection that you think, you old grump
In that case, Scots are world-champions at hiding their true emotions.
Nope, doesn’t compute for me either.
This appears fairly balanced (although didn’t spot a link to the survey they mentioned)
Monarchy has majority support. Queen more popular than other members of the family. (From recollection Anne is popular the others not so much). Strong streak of republicanism in the SNP although they are careful about picking that fight for now. Some areas of Scotland are 50/50 on pro/anti Monarchy
However, the question of the monarchy is independent (so to speak) of independence - Australia for instance still has the Queen as Head of State.
But there was one very interesting phenomenon a few years back when the Diamond Jubilee or some such event came round. There were lots of street parties in England, but almost none at all in Scotland (possibly the more monarchist corners of Lanarkshire and Morningside). ANd that wasn't the weather, either.
Big change in the age profile of detected cases....
The question is why that change? Old people all in hiding? Or are we just finding the younger people with the virus?
Perhaps it is no longer circulating in nursing homes any more?
FWIW, my understanding is that deaths in nursing homes as well as hospitals in England and Wales have been below the five-year average for some weeks. Excess deaths are now accounted for entirely by those expiring in private residences.
Hmmmm
Imagine a cultural group, where the elderly moving to a nursing home is a non-starter. Instead, they live in the same house - aka multi-generational living.
So they die at home, when they die.
Possibly, but to assess that theory we would need to know the geographic distribution of excess deaths in the home. If it is evenly spread then that suggests the main problem may be with people dying of other treatable conditions due to the health service prioritising Covid and/or patients still being too frightened to seek medical attention.
If, on the other hand, it's slanted towards localities that are also subject to special restrictions or under threat of them, well...
The reason I was thinking that was the gap between the all settings deaths and the hospital numbers. Yes, PHE have a silly definition of COVID related deaths - but I don't think that is the whole story.
By my rough calculations there are 18 former Tory Ministers in their 50s - no, I'm not naming 'em. I do have a 'shortlist' of three of whom I would not be surprised at the allegations. I'm not naming them either!
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
Median household income of $90k. Don’t know the nationwide stats but that seems solidly prosperous to me
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
Accused - whip suspended May needed his vote - whip restored Convicted - whip withdrawn
Unedifying, but just politics
Only Tories would stoop to such levels of depravity
Assuming you are referring to the temporary restoration of the whip I’d say that most politicians are shits and almost all would give someone the whip back if it secured a vote at a critical moment.
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
Not sure Orange Co is quite as rich - or rather has quite as many rich people - as you think. Also will be interesting to see impact of expanded vote-by-mail.
Median household income of $90k. Don’t know the nationwide stats but that seems solidly prosperous to me
Median US household income is $74 000, so Orange County is well above average income even if not all super rich like Newport Beach
By my rough calculations there are 18 former Tory Ministers in their 50s - no, I'm not naming 'em. I do have a 'shortlist' of three of whom I would not be surprised at the allegations. I'm not naming them either!
Accused - whip suspended May needed his vote - whip restored Convicted - whip withdrawn
Unedifying, but just politics
Only Tories would stoop to such levels of depravity
Assuming you are referring to the temporary restoration of the whip I’d say that most politicians are shits and almost all would give someone the whip back if it secured a vote at a critical moment.
To be fair, Labour did draw the line at killing someone for their vote.
By my rough calculations there are 18 former Tory Ministers in their 50s - no, I'm not naming 'em. I do have a 'shortlist' of three of whom I would not be surprised at the allegations. I'm not naming them either!
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
Some GOP activists' families are voting for Trump. Proves fake news lying media are unfair to OC millionaires.
Dismiss it if you want.
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
Just one (or slightly more) data point, but like all data interesting.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Yes. California will vote Dem (although I suspect Trump will do better in OC than last time)
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
Polling numbers posted by Trumpsky are high enough that they can NOT be comprised solely or even primarily by "crazies and racists".
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
Trump will likely do better in OC than he did in 2016 as he has made gains with rich voters compared to 4 years ago despite seeing losses from middle income and poorer voters
The MEDIAN income in OC is $90k...
The position than the Nixon family takes will have much more impact on the vote than your nationwide polling report from a few weeks ago
The Nixon family will not make much difference to the OC vote now beyond a few ageing GOP activists and donors there
BREAKING: Major incident declared as Greater Manchester Coronavirus rates continue to rise
EXCLUSIVE: New data shows numbers still climbing, with particularly big spikes in Manchester, Tameside and Oldham
....Insiders say the continued increases are not related to Eid, which only began on Friday so cannot realistically have contributed to the rise.
One said mosques have been compliant with the new measures and that the rise is down to continued household transmission across all communities, as well as younger people not observing social distancing measures.
In Manchester, the highest number of cases is understood to be in Crumpsall.
Hospital admissions are said to remain stable regionwide, however, with one official describing them as ‘really low across GM’.
“It’s younger people now, and not ill enough to be in hospital,” they said of those testing positive.
It does seem social gatherings across the board are a serious concern
The news coming out of Victoria, Aus, and especially Melbourne maybe a glimpse into the future with curfews and draconian measures implemented for the next six weeks
I really would not want to be making the serious decisions that may well be coming
As to politics I have become entirely neutral on conservative or labour in power.
Boris is not the leader needed at this time, but I doubt anyone else would be able to navigate our country through the dramatic changes that will be involved over the coming years.
I really do not think any political party really has the first conception as too how much is going to change, and nor does the public
- Deaths are falling - Hospitalisations are falling - Numbers in hospital are falling - Cases are increasing
Can anyone suggest an alternative explanation to this -
We are seeing better targeted testing finding more mild/asymptomatic cases?
The pessimistic version is cases rising is the first sign that the relaxation of lockdown has gone too far and the other indicators will start edging up in a few days.
I’m hoping you are right.
Cases have been slowly rising for a month
Yet at the same time, the other indicators have continued to fall.
So, if we are not seeing detection of less serious cases, how does this make sense?
That chart looks like rising in one, maybe 2 regions.
Squinting at that multi-coloured chart makes it look suspiciously as if the rise is the product of shenanigans in the North West, which would be wholly consistent with the pattern of local restrictions we are now seeing (and yes, I know that some of the W Yorks authorities are getting dragged into it as well, but they constitute a smaller proportion of the statistical region in which they reside than does the entirety of GM + much of E Lancs.)
At which point we are back to -
How long the island will remain so Covid-free with so many North Islanders holidaying here remains to be seen.
Comments
FWIW and that's probably not very much, new Covid-19 reported deaths today total just EIGHT. That being the case, why in God's name is Boris considering locking all the over 50's inside their own homes?
What was more interesting was the disconnect of the media perception (“only crazies and racists support Trump”) and the fact that these two individuals supported him.
(The son works for the RNC not Trump)
This son, known as Richard of Conisborough Earl of Cambridge. was left no lands or money by the Duke of York, so rebelled against Henry V and suffered the usual penalty of those who went against Henry V, losing his head. Apparently he cringed, whined and begged for mercy. Ironically, a few months later his elder brother was killed at Agincourt so if he had been patient he would have become the wealthiest and most powerful man in England.
To complicate matters further, that son’s son was the Richard Duke of York who claimed the throne of England in 1460 and therefore kicked off the official Wars of the Roses. But he had to claim the throne through his mother, as everyone knew his father was not descended from Edward III.
This incidentally is also why it is not in any way surprising that the male mitochondrial DNA in Richard III’s skeleton didn’t match the Dukes of Beaufort. There was no way it was ever going to. That’s not to say that there were not other false paternity incidents as well, of course.
- Deaths are falling
- Hospitalisations are falling
- Numbers in hospital are falling
- Cases are increasing
Can anyone suggest an alternative explanation to this -
We are seeing better targeted testing finding more mild/asymptomatic cases?
Just to clarify: Richard III was the great-grand son?
And if you can remeber all the way back to February/March we went from 0 infections to quite a lot of infections rather fast.
I’m hoping you are right.
(Her father was German, but I don’t think the Germans see her as one of theirs.)
On the weekend it drops to the Hospital deaths rate, more or less.
Come Tuesday, Wednesday - big numbers in the headlines.
For England deaths, all settings, we have the data by day of death
The continuous drop in the numbers hospitalised is, of course, good news. If the numbers of positive tests started to trend downwards again as well then that would be even better. But I'm still concerned that the wheels will start to fall off come September, because schools.
It is always worth looking at this -
The take off was extremely rapid, once it gets into the exponential zone.
Deaths being several weeks behind infections, if you wait for those to start increasing it is way too late to take effective action.
You say the Queen’s father was German: that’s a bit of gossip I have not heard. Who do you think it was?
The following is Pillar 1 + Pillar 2 cases in England -
Nope, doesn’t compute for me either.
Yet at the same time, the other indicators have continued to fall.
So, if we are not seeing detection of less serious cases, how does this make sense?
Edward III
Edmund of Langley, m Isabella
Richard of Conisborough m Anne Mortimer, grand daughter of Lionel, Duke of Clarence, 2nd son of Edward III
Richard of York
Richard III
So yes, a great-grandson.
As for Orange County, methinks that Trumpsky will do bit worse there than in 2016, due to both suburban angst AND demographic creep (increasing Latinx vote share one factor here).
AND reckon son is lucky to be with RNC as opposed to WH, for obvious reasons! Still part of the payroll vote. Though parents are not, or at most indirectly.
The Scots are less royalist than most of the UK - including rather surprisingly NI (where you'd expect a built-in handicap).
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/16238128.poll-only-41-per-cent-of-scots-support-monarchy/
[and the Herald is a Unionist newspaper, very much so, and was so by that time]
1 metre, 2 metres, 5 metres. If you are in an enclosed space you will cop for it.
The odd Edmund or George comes as a welcome relief.
Did some digging in the surveillance reports.. - https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-covid-19-surveillance-reports
Big change in the age profile of detected cases....
The question is why that change? Old people all in hiding? Or are we just finding the younger people with the virus?
Since it appears that the weather at bilberry central (circa 1980s) is going to be wet, wet, wet, hot (calm down, LadyG) - Thursday early may be the best day for a bilberry hunt.
Meanwhile, @ Mr Mothman - any chance of the Daily Moth resuming?.
Poll parity soon!
It was a scenario in a war game. And so it should be.
😳🤯😝
In fact, it could be argued that not taking action to protect the vulnerable group would be illegal.
A couple of people, that I know personally, have been re-assessed medically and told that their medical contains are not risk factors. Hence they are off the shielding list.
Monarchy has majority support. Queen more popular than other members of the family. (From recollection Anne is popular the others not so much). Strong streak of republicanism in the SNP although they are careful about picking that fight for now. Some areas of Scotland are 50/50 on pro/anti Monarchy
https://unherd.com/2019/11/would-scotland-ditch-the-monarchy/
Imagine a cultural group, where the elderly moving to a nursing home is a non-starter. Instead, they live in the same house - aka multi-generational living.
So they die at home, when they die.
Humans built them.
My friends were shocked. I didn’t tell them that it seemed like politics 101 To me and if the GOP wasn’t doing that then they darn well ought to be!
But there was one very interesting phenomenon a few years back when the Diamond Jubilee or some such event came round. There were lots of street parties in England, but almost none at all in Scotland (possibly the more monarchist corners of Lanarkshire and Morningside). ANd that wasn't the weather, either.
I imagine it was a "run it up the flagpole and see if anyone salutes" job. A low cost way of getting feedback, but not confidence - inspiring.
Surely this is a hoax, they cannot be serious, but then this is the BBC
BREAKING: Major incident declared as Greater Manchester Coronavirus rates continue to rise
EXCLUSIVE: New data shows numbers still climbing, with particularly big spikes in Manchester, Tameside and Oldham
....Insiders say the continued increases are not related to Eid, which only began on Friday so cannot realistically have contributed to the rise.
One said mosques have been compliant with the new measures and that the rise is down to continued household transmission across all communities, as well as younger people not observing social distancing measures.
In Manchester, the highest number of cases is understood to be in Crumpsall.
Hospital admissions are said to remain stable regionwide, however, with one official describing them as ‘really low across GM’.
“It’s younger people now, and not ill enough to be in hospital,” they said of those testing positive.
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/breaking-major-incident-declared-greater-18704165
But it was also only 28% opposed to the monarchy (41%+27% ambivalent are content with the status quo) 😉
Are there any Mitford daughters who write?
If, on the other hand, it's slanted towards localities that are also subject to special restrictions or under threat of them, well...
Suspect numbers are influenced by sick elderly private patients staying at home longer... but by how much?
That is, when he is NOT focused on traffic control, as with former Governor and current has-been Chris Christie and the Bridgegate scandal.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/on-ward-28-theyre-braced-for-a-new-covid-tsunami-h5jhqqkgg
The position than the Nixon family takes will have much more impact on the vote than your nationwide polling report from a few weeks ago
I considered including a bad taste Corbynite Labour joke but thought better of it
£1 per Equifax Point.
:-o
The bar says it is a "very difficult time" and that it is co-operating with an investigation after customers contracted COVID-19.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-13-test-positive-for-covid-19-after-visiting-aberdeen-bar-12041072
https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2020/01/09/trends-in-income-and-wealth-inequality/
The news coming out of Victoria, Aus, and especially Melbourne maybe a glimpse into the future with curfews and draconian measures implemented for the next six weeks
I really would not want to be making the serious decisions that may well be coming
As to politics I have become entirely neutral on conservative or labour in power.
Boris is not the leader needed at this time, but I doubt anyone else would be able to navigate our country through the dramatic changes that will be involved over the coming years.
I really do not think any political party really has the first conception as too how much is going to change, and nor does the public