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  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2014
    Apparently a black guy in Croydon voted for Winston McKenzie and then was outraged when he found out he was from UKIP.
  • SouthamObserver1
    SouthamObserver1 Posts: 37
    Horrible result for LDs in Camden. From 13 councillors down to one.
  • welshowl
    welshowl Posts: 4,464
    edited May 2014
    AndyJS said:

    Is it still possible to bet on the Euros? I'm still wondering whether UKIP might pull off a shock result in Wales, with a very low turnout due to no local elections.

    They might well beat Plaid whose (utterly useless) leader went well out of her way a few months ago to vilify UKIP here.
  • Quincel
    Quincel Posts: 4,042
    AndyJS said:

    Is it still possible to bet on the Euros? I'm still wondering whether UKIP might pull off a shock result in Wales, with a very low turnout due to no local elections.

    Ladbrokes still has odds, only on the overall result I believe.

    Meanwhile PaddyPower will give you 1.22 on Labour winning Brent Central in 2015. Today they took 16 seats straight from the LDs, leaving them almost unopposed on the council. The Ld incumbent is unpopular and retiring. DYOR, but I reckon it's a shoe-in.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2014
    Personally I think the 2011 London riots were the last straw for a lot of Tory voters living in boroughs like Croydon and Enfield. And once they move out the Tories won't have a hope of winning many seats in those areas.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    MarkSenior said:

    AndyJS said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Has anyone figured out why the seat totals on BBC and Sky are totally different for all parties . I have a possible reason .

    Depending on whether you compare with the 2010 results or the situation just before the election, which would include by-elections and defections during the last 4 years.
    No I am sure that is not right . I believe the BBC are showing the number of seats won yesterday and Sky are showing the total number of seats after yesterday on each council . For those with all out elections the numbers will be the same but for councils electing by 1/2 or 1/3rd Sky will show a higher number than the BBC . The gains and losses should be virtually the same .
    Oh yes, I should have thought of that. That must be the explanation. Nice to have two separate ways of looking things rather than uniformity.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    AndyJS said:

    Harlow popular votes:

    UKIP 7,122 (34.03%)
    Lab 6,965 (33.28%)
    Con 5,892 (28.15%)
    LD 563 (2.69%)

    Changes since 2010 locals:

    UKIP +34.03%
    Lab -3.05%
    Con -13.49%
    LD -18.86%

    Do we know in how many constituencies are UKIP ahead?
    Last year they where ahead in 8 if I remember from the Survation analysis.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SkyNews: TELEGRAPH FRONT PAGE: 'Surge by UKIP throws Labour into poll crisis.' #skypapers http://t.co/FpQ8MzaJ38
  • HurstLlama
    HurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited May 2014
    AndyJS said:

    Personally I think the 2011 London riots were the last straw for a lot of Tory voters living in boroughs like Croydon and Enfield. And once they move out the Tories won't have a hope of winning many seats in those areas.

    Mr. JS! I protest, Sir. What you are suggesting sounds very much like "white-flight" which diverse posters on this site have assured has not happened, is not happening and will not happen. To suggest that it has, is and will is therefore tantamount to treason or racism, which these days seems to worse..
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Interesting result in Sholing, Southampton:

    Con 1,188
    Lab 1,179
    UKIP 1,147
    LD 178
    TUSC 51

    In 2010 the Tories won the seat by 112 votes over Labour.
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    edited May 2014
    twitter.com/SkyNews/status/469941318224195586/photo/1

    For some reason Farage looks like a Shar Pei fighting dog.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @bbclaurak: Scottish Fire Service say they've managed to save as much as 90pc of structure + 70pc of contents of Glasgow School of Art
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    edited May 2014
    anotherDave said:

    maaarsh said:

    Next said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Next said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MarkSenior said:

    AndyJS said:

    I think if UKIP get 33% in the Euros the 17% projected share will look very strange by comparison, and wouldn't be surprised to see some of the experts starting to question it.

    Why , did not one pollster (can't remember which ) question UKIP voters and 43% said they would be voting differently in local elections to the Euros
    Survation, they had 41% of European election voting Kippers planning to vote for parties other than UKIP in the locals
    On that basis, UKIP is going to do stunningly well in Euros (compared to the locals).
    Other elections

    Of those UKIP European voters who also have a local election on Thursday, 41% will not be voting UKIP in the local elections. Further 29% of all EP UKIP voters would not vote UKIP in a general election. In contrast Labour retain 91% of their European vote in local elections and 95% in the forthcoming Westminster election.

    http://survation.com/survations-final-european-parliament-2014-poll-results-survation-daily-mirror/
    So for every 100 UKIP votes in the locals, you can expect approx 250 votes in the Euros. Right?
    No.

    If that stat is right, 100 locals would give 169 Euro votes.

    The Survation EU Parliament prediction was;

    Con 23%, Lab 27%, LD 9%, UKIP 32%

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/May-voting-poll-Mirror-tables.pdf

    (They're the source of the local vote stat)
    17x1.69=28.73% Not far off from opinion polls for UKIP, if you add something extra for less candidates, 30% for the euros is not far fetched.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2014
    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    Harlow popular votes:

    UKIP 7,122 (34.03%)
    Lab 6,965 (33.28%)
    Con 5,892 (28.15%)
    LD 563 (2.69%)

    Changes since 2010 locals:

    UKIP +34.03%
    Lab -3.05%
    Con -13.49%
    LD -18.86%

    Do we know in how many constituencies are UKIP ahead?
    Last year they where ahead in 8 if I remember from the Survation analysis.
    Harlow and Castle Point are the ones I know about so far. I'll be doing Great Yarmouth shortly. I'd be amazed if they aren't in front in North East Lincolnshire as well.
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    Ishmael_X said:

    HIGNFY replays ed's miliband radio Wiltshire car crash.

    Biased BBC lefties.

    Traitorous Blairite revisionist imperialist running dogs.
  • HurstLlama
    HurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited May 2014
    Scott_P said:

    @SkyNews: TELEGRAPH FRONT PAGE: 'Surge by UKIP throws Labour into poll crisis.' #skypapers http://t.co/FpQ8MzaJ38

    Typical of the Telegraph to get things so totally wrong. Fortunately, we on here are sophisticated enough to know that UKIP, far from surging, is going backwards in its support to a significant degree (we have a graph from OGH that proves it). I wonder why, apart from the crossword, anyone buys the Telegraph these days.

  • Next
    Next Posts: 826
    HurstLlama said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SkyNews: TELEGRAPH FRONT PAGE: 'Surge by UKIP throws Labour into poll crisis.' #skypapers http://t.co/FpQ8MzaJ38

    Typical of the Telegraph to get things so totally wrong. Fortunately, we on here are sophisticated enough to know that UKIP, far from surging, is going backwards in its support to a significant degree (we have a graph from OGH that proves it). I wonder why, apart from the crossword anyone buys the Telegraph these days.

    I wonder why, apart from the crossword anyone buys the Telegraph these days.

    Apparently it's very good for lighting fires.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,805
    HurstLlama said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SkyNews: TELEGRAPH FRONT PAGE: 'Surge by UKIP throws Labour into poll crisis.' #skypapers http://t.co/FpQ8MzaJ38

    Typical of the Telegraph to get things so totally wrong. Fortunately, we on here are sophisticated enough to know that UKIP, far from surging, is going backwards in its support to a significant degree (we have a graph from OGH that proves it). I wonder why, apart from the crossword anyone buys the Telegraph these days.

    Matt
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    Next said:

    HurstLlama said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SkyNews: TELEGRAPH FRONT PAGE: 'Surge by UKIP throws Labour into poll crisis.' #skypapers http://t.co/FpQ8MzaJ38

    Typical of the Telegraph to get things so totally wrong. Fortunately, we on here are sophisticated enough to know that UKIP, far from surging, is going backwards in its support to a significant degree (we have a graph from OGH that proves it). I wonder why, apart from the crossword anyone buys the Telegraph these days.

    I wonder why, apart from the crossword anyone buys the Telegraph these days.

    Apparently it's very good for lighting fires.
    Is the paper perforated, soft and absorbent?

  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    Scott_P said:

    @SkyNews: TELEGRAPH FRONT PAGE: 'Surge by UKIP throws Labour into poll crisis.' #skypapers http://t.co/FpQ8MzaJ38

    I envision a UKIP heartland as a coastal band from Newcastle to Plymouth 30 miles deep with an extra UKIP blob in the midlands from the legacy of Enoch Powell. Such a heartland contains a number of Labour seats, but nothing to trouble Labour in an election if it's not a close election.
    With polls narrowing I think they might go for a referendum pledge just to be safe, not now but during the conference season.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Southampton popular votes:

    Lab 19,335 (33.87%)
    Con 17,659 (30.94%)
    UKIP 8,640 (15.14%)
    LD 4,789 (8.39%)
    Green 2,933 (5.14%)
    Ind 2,096 (3.67%)
    TUSC 1,628 (2.85%)

    Changes since 2010 locals:

    Lab +0.84%
    Con -3.27%
    UKIP +14.07%
    LD -20.05%
    Green +2.31%
    Ind +3.25%
    TUSC +2.85%

    Swing, Con to Lab: 2.06%
  • Carnyx
    Carnyx Posts: 44,654
    dr_spyn said:

    Next said:

    HurstLlama said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SkyNews: TELEGRAPH FRONT PAGE: 'Surge by UKIP throws Labour into poll crisis.' #skypapers http://t.co/FpQ8MzaJ38

    Typical of the Telegraph to get things so totally wrong. Fortunately, we on here are sophisticated enough to know that UKIP, far from surging, is going backwards in its support to a significant degree (we have a graph from OGH that proves it). I wonder why, apart from the crossword anyone buys the Telegraph these days.

    I wonder why, apart from the crossword anyone buys the Telegraph these days.

    Apparently it's very good for lighting fires.
    Is the paper perforated, soft and absorbent?

    Yes, but the ink comes off ... so you need to wash your botty anyway after all ...

  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Turnout was 36% according to the BBC.
  • Theuniondivvie
    Theuniondivvie Posts: 44,327
    Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: Scottish Fire Service say they've managed to save as much as 90pc of structure + 70pc of contents of Glasgow School of Art

    Fantastic if that is the case, & miraculous looking at some of the pics/footage.
  • HurstLlama
    HurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HurstLlama said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SkyNews: TELEGRAPH FRONT PAGE: 'Surge by UKIP throws Labour into poll crisis.' #skypapers http://t.co/FpQ8MzaJ38

    Typical of the Telegraph to get things so totally wrong. Fortunately, we on here are sophisticated enough to know that UKIP, far from surging, is going backwards in its support to a significant degree (we have a graph from OGH that proves it). I wonder why, apart from the crossword anyone buys the Telegraph these days.

    Matt
    Good point, Mr. Eagles.
  • Carola
    Carola Posts: 1,805
    Times leading on a story about... supermarket expiry dates.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    AndyJS said:

    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    Harlow popular votes:

    UKIP 7,122 (34.03%)
    Lab 6,965 (33.28%)
    Con 5,892 (28.15%)
    LD 563 (2.69%)

    Changes since 2010 locals:

    UKIP +34.03%
    Lab -3.05%
    Con -13.49%
    LD -18.86%

    Do we know in how many constituencies are UKIP ahead?
    Last year they where ahead in 8 if I remember from the Survation analysis.
    Harlow and Castle Point are the ones I know about so far. I'll be doing Great Yarmouth shortly. I'd be amazed if they aren't in front in North East Lincolnshire as well.
    I have a list of possible UKIP seats and I wonder how they went in those so far.
    Thanet S.
    Sittingbourne
    Gillingham
    Rochester
    Castle Point
    Southend W
    Rochford
    Harwich
    Suffolk Coast
    Broadland
    NW Cambridgeshire
    Boston
    Bournemouth E
    Bournemouth W
    Devon E
    Dorset S
    Newton Abbot
    Poole
    Totnes
    Eastleigh
    Portsmouth S
    Torbay

    So far Castle Point and Portsmouth S are ones they've done ok and I didn't had Harlow on the list, with Eastleigh bad. I wonder how is the state on the others.
  • Tykejohnno
    Tykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Front pages -

    http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/98546/the_daily_mail_friday_23rd_may_2014.html
  • HurstLlama
    HurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    AndyJS said:

    Turnout was 36% according to the BBC.

    Turn out for what? The locals or the European Parliament?

  • maaarsh
    maaarsh Posts: 3,602
    Tykejohnno said:

    Front pages -

    http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/98546/the_daily_mail_friday_23rd_may_2014.html

    Say what you like, but Nige would make a great pet pug. Adorable.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,805
    New Thread
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Tykejohnno said:

    Front pages -

    http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/98546/the_daily_mail_friday_23rd_may_2014.html

    Interesting mix of photos of politicians on the front pages:

    Express going with a standard, ecstatic Farage pic.

    the Mail going with one of Ed M looing at something with total contempt it looks like (seriously, the only time he's looked harsher is that one at Wimbledon with him glaring at Cameron) and one of Farage not just beaming ecstatically, but eyes clenched shut and teeth together, so he looks more like a man who's taken a cricket ball to the groin, but he's wearing a box so he's feeling pretty ok about it,

    and the Independent going for one of Farage looking immensely satisified, but in a dignified way as he appreciately sniffs his pint at arms length.
  • Paul_Mid_Beds
    Paul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    Another thing those spinning the" UKIP did worse than last year line" forgot is that in a lot of London seats UKIP only put up one candidate out of a maximum of three which would depress their vote share.

    It shows a certain maturity that UKIP are not willing to put up unsuitable candidates to boost their poll share.

    Meanwhile in London Borough of Havering the councillors who defected to UKIP seem to have all kept their seats (7 UKIP elected) and Tories appear to have lost control to a coalition of residents associations and UKIP with residents making numerous gains at tory expense and Labour reduced to one seat. Not all bad news for UKIP in London.

    I suspect that Labours successes elsewhere in London are not unlinked to the insane house and rental prices in London which is an increasingly large issue that could have motivated people who are shut out of being able to buy a house and forced to hand over most of their wages to buy to let spivs for the forseeable future to vote labour, which would have the effect of squeezing UKIP.
  • Peter_the_Punter
    Peter_the_Punter Posts: 14,779
    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    Harlow popular votes:

    UKIP 7,122 (34.03%)
    Lab 6,965 (33.28%)
    Con 5,892 (28.15%)
    LD 563 (2.69%)

    Changes since 2010 locals:

    UKIP +34.03%
    Lab -3.05%
    Con -13.49%
    LD -18.86%

    Do we know in how many constituencies are UKIP ahead?
    Last year they where ahead in 8 if I remember from the Survation analysis.
    Harlow and Castle Point are the ones I know about so far. I'll be doing Great Yarmouth shortly. I'd be amazed if they aren't in front in North East Lincolnshire as well.
    I have a list of possible UKIP seats and I wonder how they went in those so far.
    Thanet S.
    Sittingbourne
    Gillingham
    Rochester
    Castle Point
    Southend W
    Rochford
    Harwich
    Suffolk Coast
    Broadland
    NW Cambridgeshire
    Boston
    Bournemouth E
    Bournemouth W
    Devon E
    Dorset S
    Newton Abbot
    Poole
    Totnes
    Eastleigh
    Portsmouth S
    Torbay

    So far Castle Point and Portsmouth S are ones they've done ok and I didn't had Harlow on the list, with Eastleigh bad. I wonder how is the state on the others.
    You need to add Cleethorpes to your list.



  • corporeal
    corporeal Posts: 2,549
    Paul_Mid_Beds said:

    Another thing those spinning the" UKIP did worse than last year line" forgot is that in a lot of London seats UKIP only put up one candidate out of a maximum of three which would depress their vote share.

    It shows a certain maturity that UKIP are not willing to put up unsuitable candidates to boost their poll share..

    Yes, I'm sure their high standards of candidate selection are why they did that.
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