Both Labour and Tories have been captured by people who should really be in the Liberal party and thought they could win power by ignoring their core vote as they had nowhere else to go and concentrating on a handful of liberally minded voters in a small number of marginal seats.
Well guess what, their core vote has found somewhere else to go. As both Labour and Tory have far more core than swing voters this means that both will have to tack to their respective cores and abandon the "centre" ie Liberal ground and this distortion of democracy with three parties run by an elite that you can hardly put a cigarette paper between will hopefully end. For that I cannot thank Nigel Farage enough
Whether UKIP will be a flash in the pan or do to the Conservatives what the DUP did to the UUP remains to be seen. However I'm sure the first time labour had any successes in the early 20th Century received wisdom was that it was a protest vote against Liberal policy and they would be a flash in the pan that woudl soon die out.
I wonder what the odds are on the 1992 committee receiving enough complaints to trigger a leadership election this November are?
Interesting results in Newcastle under Lyme. UKIP making gains from Lab in the old pit villages of Chesterton and Silverdale. A green elected in the university ward of Keele. Poor results for Labour and LD.
Is the Llin Golding who lost in Silverdale the former MP, or a daughter or granddaughter?
Milliband needs to say something meaningful to the WWC and he needs to say it soon.
But Labour need to win over Middle England!!!! They need to talk about cutting the deficit and being pro-business!!!!!!111
Thrasher on SkyNews now making the same confusion as this thread.
If the bloody experts can't talk about national equivalent share without using the location of the elections as an excuse, how are we supposed to trust them to make these calculations?
And yet Andys subset of actual votes cast has them on about the same as the PNV. Go figure.
In locations which, per Thrasher "are not anywhere near as favourable as last year"
Their actual vote has fallen 2-3% from what we can see so far, in constituencies which are massively less receptive. Fisher and co have turned that in to a 6% fall. This is faulty Psephology being used to push an untrue narrative (x-ref the Krishnan Guru Murphy quote just shared).
Lol. 200 gains, fewer council seats won than the Lib Dems, not in control of any councils (the Lib Dems are and have a lower national share), not the official opposition anywhere new today as far as I know and yet they should be 'higher' than 17% of the national vote?! Ridiculous. They are where they are. They got overestimated in 2013 precisely because it was ripe territory. They had better results in places, too.
The only important outcome of this is the media narrative, and it may now be falsely set due to an incorrect impression of changed momentum.
So far on Andy's numbers they've scored 17% of actual votes in below average areas for them.
This is only 3% less than last year in real votes. The change in national equivalent share should be 3% or less based on this and yet it's 6% apparently.
How many London councils up on Andys tally? 17% feels right 20% last year seems more accurate. I agree it's unfortunate for the narrative, unfairly so given either last year or this is clearly wrong (last year seeming more likely)
Narrative wise, wait till Sunday night when they win a national election at a canter.
Fingers crossed.
Quick look and I saw 4 London names I recognised, covering nearly 400K of the 1.7m votes Andy has included so far, where UKIP were struggling to get 5%, so the current 17% contains it's fair share of down-escalators.
PNS is an art not a science, particularly as one can't directly compare outcomes in urban wards with outcomes in most County Council Divisions.
Where District council wards coincide with County Council Divisions, a meaningful comparison between 2013 and 2014 can be made. On the face of it, it looks as if UKIP's support held steady, overall.
UKIP have now won 3 seats in Gooshays, and Havering will go to NOC.
I don't expect to be able to do the final update for a few more hours, so here are how things stand in terms of who won seats of who at the election with 87% of the seats inputted:
Rob just one query.The change matrix is titled against previous election but the figures used appear to be from the councillor column at dissolution.Maybe this differnc eexplains why Gurdain is showing lower loss figures for Con and LD than BBC.Which method is right?
"...UKIP's support is actually declining quite substantially."
Of course it is, as yesterday's elections will show. By next May UKIP will be collecting less than 3% of the vote share. By the same token we can see the Lib Dems powering ahead, picking up support from right, left and centre. We can expect the Lib Dems to be challenging for the top spot in the GE. It is obvious that any party that is growing in membership, support and vote numbers is in fact in terminal decline, whilst a party that is shedding members, support and votes is a growing force in UK politics..
I never said UKIP would decline to 3% in the GE.
I have no idea why you have suddenly brought the Lib Dims into the mix. I was in no way making a comparison and certainly hold no candle for that bunch of wishy-washy, all things to all men fence sitters.
I am not sure therefore what accounts for this reaction on your part to an observation which is based simply on the conclusion that can legitimately be made from the PNS calculation used in every local election I can remember. The fact that they appear to be making more significant seat gains than last year despite a falling PNS may reflect that their vote is becoming more efficiently distributed- ultimately this process will be very good news to UKIP.
"...UKIP's support is actually declining quite substantially."
Of course it is, as yesterday's elections will show. By next May UKIP will be collecting less than 3% of the vote share. By the same token we can see the Lib Dems powering ahead, picking up support from right, left and centre. We can expect the Lib Dems to be challenging for the top spot in the GE. It is obvious that any party that is growing in membership, support and vote numbers is in fact in terminal decline, whilst a party that is shedding members, support and votes is a growing force in UK politics..
I never said UKIP would decline to 3% in the GE.
I have no idea why you have suddenly brought the Lib Dims into the mix. I was in no way making a comparison and certainly hold no candle for that bunch of wishy-washy, all things to all men fence sitters.
I am not sure therefore what accounts for this reaction on your part to an observation which is based simply on the conclusion that can legitimately be made from the PNS calculation used in every local election I can remember. The fact that they appear to be making more significant seat gains than last year despite a falling PNS may reflect that their vote is becoming more efficiently distributed- ultimately this process will be very good news to UKIP.
Mr. U., You did say, did you not, "... UKIPs support is actually declining quite substantially"? If you didn't or you meant it sarcastically I apologise.
Funny how elements of the left are making great play about non UKIP voters being supposedly cleverer than UKIP voters. Seems its ok to discriminate people and despise people on the basis of IQ. Wherefore equality.....
The political class set about to elect a new people and politics is starting to balkanize as a result. Models based on UNS are obviously going to fall apart when that happens.
Cllr Joshua Peck @CllrJoshuaPeck 1m Coming to the end of counting the first round. Lutfur Rahman clearly in the lead. Possibly by too big a margin.
Phil Briscoe @philbriscoe 7m Looks like first round counting is nearly complete in Tower Hamlets and it will go to a second round - which means Biggs should snatch it
Surely they could have got some fire engines there a bit quicker to save part of the building?
How long did it take them to get there?
"Fire crews were on the scene within four minutes of the alarm being raised."
A bit harsh saying they should have gotten there quicker than that!
The area around the now former Art School is a grid of narrow one-way streets so for any large vehicle like a fire engine to get there in 4 mins is good going.
Hardly surprising what happened if there wasn't a major sprinkler system. Apparently a projector exploded in the basement when students were preparing their final year graduation projects. The building has a great deal of wooden panelling and of course over 100 years that wood will have soaked in paint fumes, turpentine fumes etc and no doubt all through the building there would have been store rooms containing paints and thinners. They would explode on coming into contact with the heat from fire.
My late father studied there and my mother as a youngster modelled for fabric and costume students in the mid 50s. A truly major tragedy for Scotland.
Tom Sleigh @tomsleigh 37s I gather that Lutfur hit around 48% of first preferences (from sampling). That's a big ask for Biggs @LGiU@TedJeory Tower hamlets
Apologies if its boring anyone, but several PBers including yours truly have backed Rahman !
Apparently Labour unexpectedly won most votes in the Enfield Southgate constituency.
An area with a high number if renters voting for Labour? Who would have thought it...
If only Tories would stop cosseting private landlords and help working people
I sympathise with renters but private landlords are not all the devil incarnate ( I am not one by the way). Don't forget many will be trying to find a return to supplement pensions monstrously rogered by G Brown, 0.5% interest rates, and QE, and will see themselves,not unreasonably, as having been victimised themselves by circumstance. Not all of them, true, but a good proportion I bet.
It is also the case that historically millions of Irish/Scots/Welsh/Northerners have moved to the Smoke for work. Maybe some need to think about moving the other way for accommodation. Before I get lambasted for the mere suggestion, I am fully aware it's a wrench, not for everyone etc etc but the reverse was true, and I left my home town far behind in my youth myself.
Also given London wages ever considered BTL in cheaper parts of the country as a way of building equity?
London is an amazing place with unique benefits nowhere else in the UK can match ( or even the world), it ain't going to have Huddersfield or Port Talbot's house prices. More can be done to encourage building I'm sure, but vilifying landlords many of who are merely seeking a return on 40 years of hard work denied them by crap returns elsewhere isn't going to help. Sorry.
Apologies if already posted: the BBC analysis of the results projected to the whjole country at a GE: Labour: 322 seats, Conservatives: 255, Lib Dems: 45
- Sky has a similar analysis. It's 4 seats short of an overall majority.
Just not good enough Nick, nowhere near good enough for Labour just under a year from the general election.
The question for you and other Labour burghers is what are you going to do to turn this impending disaster around ?
You are indeed correct that disaster is most likely impending for Labour and something needs to be done, but you and other PBTories surely don't still think the way for them is by moving to the supposed "centre ground" and saying they'd cut spending? People are quite obviously not voting for UKIP because they're desperate for "economic credibility", in fact by UKIP's own admission they stand for the very opposite of "credibility" (since "credibility" essentially means maintaining the economic status quo which has driven so many people to such fury).
Thank you burnishing an incorrect impression that I'm one of the "PBTories". Over my years on PB I've also had many other interesting tags that have covered all political and social dynamics.
As for the potential for a Labour recovery before May 2015 .... There simply isn't any.
"...UKIP's support is actually declining quite substantially."
Of course it is, as yesterday's elections will show. By next May UKIP will be collecting less than 3% of the vote share. By the same token we can see the Lib Dems powering ahead, picking up support from right, left and centre. We can expect the Lib Dems to be challenging for the top spot in the GE. It is obvious that any party that is growing in membership, support and vote numbers is in fact in terminal decline, whilst a party that is shedding members, support and votes is a growing force in UK politics..
I never said UKIP would decline to 3% in the GE.
I have no idea why you have suddenly brought the Lib Dims into the mix. I was in no way making a comparison and certainly hold no candle for that bunch of wishy-washy, all things to all men fence sitters.
I am not sure therefore what accounts for this reaction on your part to an observation which is based simply on the conclusion that can legitimately be made from the PNS calculation used in every local election I can remember. The fact that they appear to be making more significant seat gains than last year despite a falling PNS may reflect that their vote is becoming more efficiently distributed- ultimately this process will be very good news to UKIP.
Mr. U., You did say, did you not, "... UKIPs support is actually declining quite substantially"? If you didn't or you meant it sarcastically I apologise.
A decline from 23% to 17% is a substantial decline in anyone's language so no I was not being sarcastic. I do not quite understand what your beef is with me. As it happens I actually voted for UKIP in the European Elections (although not in the locals). For some reason you seem to have got me down as a Lib-Dem.
Thrasher on SkyNews now making the same confusion as this thread.
If the bloody experts can't talk about national equivalent share without using the location of the elections as an excuse, how are we supposed to trust them to make these calculations?
And yet Andys subset of actual votes cast has them on about the same as the PNV. Go figure.
In locations which, per Thrasher "are not anywhere near as favourable as last year"
Their actual vote has fallen 2-3% from what we can see so far, in constituencies which are massively less receptive. Fisher and co have turned that in to a 6% fall. This is faulty Psephology being used to push an untrue narrative (x-ref the Krishnan Guru Murphy quote just shared).
Lol. 200 gains, fewer council seats won than the Lib Dems, not in control of any councils (the Lib Dems are and have a lower national share), not the official opposition anywhere new today as far as I know and yet they should be 'higher' than 17% of the national vote?! Ridiculous. They are where they are. They got overestimated in 2013 precisely because it was ripe territory. They had better results in places, too.
The only important outcome of this is the media narrative, and it may now be falsely set due to an incorrect impression of changed momentum.
So far on Andy's numbers they've scored 17% of actual votes in below average areas for them.
This is only 3% less than last year in real votes. The change in national equivalent share should be 3% or less based on this and yet it's 6% apparently.
However UKIP have gained more councillors than the Lib Dems, per candidate and of the 161 councils to declare, outside London very few of them were electing more than a third of the council. Very difficult to win 51% when only 33% were available.
I think if UKIP get 33% in the Euros the 17% projected share will look very strange by comparison, and wouldn't be surprised to see some of the experts starting to question it.
I think if UKIP get 33% in the Euros the 17% projected share will look very strange by comparison, and wouldn't be surprised to see some of the experts starting to question it.
Anything north of 27% will show it up really.
17% national equivalent for UKIP in these seats means they should be taking 12-14% of actual votes once you account for the location and the lower number of seats contested. That's clearly not what happened. The experts have got this one wrong.
Labour also came first in Simon Hughes' Bermondsey seat, which is a real shock.
In some respects, Bermondsey currently appears to be THE value bet for next year's GE. Baxter's Electoral Calculus gives Labour a whopping 62.3% chance of wininning this seat and Simon Hughes only a 26.6% chances of successfully holding it for the LibDems. Compare those figures with the betting odds on offer from those nice people at Paddy Power where Labour is priced at 15/8, compared with the LibDems at the very short price of 4/11.
I know which one I'd rather be on, but do your own research.
"...UKIP's support is actually declining quite substantially."
Of course it is, as yesterday's elections will show. By next May UKIP will be collecting less than 3% of the vote share. By the same token we can see the Lib Dems powering ahead, picking up support from right, left and centre. We can expect the Lib Dems to be challenging for the top spot in the GE. It is obvious that any party that is growing in membership, support and vote numbers is in fact in terminal decline, whilst a party that is shedding members, support and votes is a growing force in UK politics..
I never said UKIP would decline to 3% in the GE.
I have no idea why you have suddenly brought the Lib Dims into the mix. I was in no way making a comparison and certainly hold no candle for that bunch of wishy-washy, all things to all men fence sitters.
I am not sure therefore what accounts for this reaction on your part to an observation which is based simply on the conclusion that can legitimately be made from the PNS calculation used in every local election I can remember. The fact that they appear to be making more significant seat gains than last year despite a falling PNS may reflect that their vote is becoming more efficiently distributed- ultimately this process will be very good news to UKIP.
Mr. U., You did say, did you not, "... UKIPs support is actually declining quite substantially"? If you didn't or you meant it sarcastically I apologise.
A decline from 23% to 17% is a substantial decline in anyone's language so no I was not being sarcastic. I do not quite understand what your beef is with me. As it happens I actually voted for UKIP in the European Elections (although not in the locals). For some reason you seem to have got me down as a Lib-Dem.
My dear fellow, I have no beef with you at all. I am very sorry if from my remarks you think I have. I do find the idea that these elections show UKIP's support is in decline rather amusing, especially when it comes from OGH (whose own preferred party really is in decline).
I think if UKIP get 33% in the Euros the 17% projected share will look very strange by comparison, and wouldn't be surprised to see some of the experts starting to question it.
Why , did not one pollster (can't remember which ) question UKIP voters and 43% said they would be voting differently in local elections to the Euros
Strange how the latest stats on Romania and Bulgaria only came out today, after the vote, and after the premature round of smug 'nobody came' articles have been knocked out and printed.
All strangely reminiscent of the previous accessions where the establishment decides that it was all a to do about nothing after 3 months, and then all the fruitcake predictions come true.
I think if UKIP get 33% in the Euros the 17% projected share will look very strange by comparison, and wouldn't be surprised to see some of the experts starting to question it.
Why , did not one pollster (can't remember which ) question UKIP voters and 43% said they would be voting differently in local elections to the Euros
Survation, they had 41% of European election voting Kippers planning to vote for parties other than UKIP in the locals
Out of interest, how are you counting the votes Andy - do you just take the highest candidate for each party in multi-member wards, or are you counting all candidates?
I think if UKIP get 33% in the Euros the 17% projected share will look very strange by comparison, and wouldn't be surprised to see some of the experts starting to question it.
Why , did not one pollster (can't remember which ) question UKIP voters and 43% said they would be voting differently in local elections to the Euros
Survation, they had 41% of European election voting Kippers planning to vote for parties other than UKIP in the locals
I think if UKIP get 33% in the Euros the 17% projected share will look very strange by comparison, and wouldn't be surprised to see some of the experts starting to question it.
Why , did not one pollster (can't remember which ) question UKIP voters and 43% said they would be voting differently in local elections to the Euros
Survation, they had 41% of European election voting Kippers planning to vote for parties other than UKIP in the locals
On that basis, UKIP is going to do stunningly well in Euros (compared to the locals).
Strange how the latest stats on Romania and Bulgaria only came out today, after the vote, and after the premature round of smug 'nobody came' articles have been knocked out and printed.
All strangely reminiscent of the previous accessions where the establishment decides that it was all a to do about nothing after 3 months, and then all the fruitcake predictions come true.
The ONS stats came out yesterday, on polling day no less.
The distinction between the two sets of figures, which are from the same dataset (both considering the number of NI registrations for those immigrants in work) is that yesterday's figures were over the last year and the figures a few days ago for the previous three months. Therefore while there has been a rise in Romanian and Bulgarian immigration, it didn't happen after immediately after 1 January.
A q for the local election experts on here: How come the Tories still have more total councillors, when Labour have won the locals for the last 4 years in a row (which is a full election cycle, right?)?
"...UKIP's support is actually declining quite substantially."
Of course it is, as yesterday's elections will show. By next May UKIP will be collecting less than 3% of the vote share. By the same token we can see the Lib Dems powering ahead, picking up support from right, left and centre. We can expect the Lib Dems to be challenging for the top spot in the GE. It is obvious that any party that is growing in membership, support and vote numbers is in fact in terminal decline, whilst a party that is shedding members, support and votes is a growing force in UK politics..
I never said UKIP would decline to 3% in the GE.
I have no idea why you have suddenly brought the Lib Dims into the mix. I was in no way making a comparison and certainly hold no candle for that bunch of wishy-washy, all things to all men fence sitters.
I am not sure therefore what accounts for this reaction on your part to an observation which is based simply on the conclusion that can legitimately be made from the PNS calculation used in every local election I can remember. The fact that they appear to be making more significant seat gains than last year despite a falling PNS may reflect that their vote is becoming more efficiently distributed- ultimately this process will be very good news to UKIP.
Mr. U., You did say, did you not, "... UKIPs support is actually declining quite substantially"? If you didn't or you meant it sarcastically I apologise.
A decline from 23% to 17% is a substantial decline in anyone's language so no I was not being sarcastic. I do not quite understand what your beef is with me. As it happens I actually voted for UKIP in the European Elections (although not in the locals). For some reason you seem to have got me down as a Lib-Dem.
I think if UKIP get 33% in the Euros the 17% projected share will look very strange by comparison, and wouldn't be surprised to see some of the experts starting to question it.
Why , did not one pollster (can't remember which ) question UKIP voters and 43% said they would be voting differently in local elections to the Euros
Survation, they had 41% of European election voting Kippers planning to vote for parties other than UKIP in the locals
On that basis, UKIP is going to do stunningly well in Euros (compared to the locals).
Other elections
Of those UKIP European voters who also have a local election on Thursday, 41% will not be voting UKIP in the local elections. Further 29% of all EP UKIP voters would not vote UKIP in a general election. In contrast Labour retain 91% of their European vote in local elections and 95% in the forthcoming Westminster election.
I think if UKIP get 33% in the Euros the 17% projected share will look very strange by comparison, and wouldn't be surprised to see some of the experts starting to question it.
Why , did not one pollster (can't remember which ) question UKIP voters and 43% said they would be voting differently in local elections to the Euros
Survation, they had 41% of European election voting Kippers planning to vote for parties other than UKIP in the locals
Thought so that would make it about right .
As you're the font of all knowledge in these things, I'm right in thinking all the wards that make up the Sheffield Hallam constituency voted yesterday and the results show the Lib Dems still strong there?
And Lab defeating Clegg in 2015 is one for the fairies.
A q for the local election experts on here: How come the Tories still have more total councillors, when Labour have won the locals for the last 4 years in a row (which is a full election cycle, right?)?
Labour only 'won' if you look at the changes. In absolute terms the Tories won twice as many seats as Labour last year for example.
I think if UKIP get 33% in the Euros the 17% projected share will look very strange by comparison, and wouldn't be surprised to see some of the experts starting to question it.
Why , did not one pollster (can't remember which ) question UKIP voters and 43% said they would be voting differently in local elections to the Euros
Survation, they had 41% of European election voting Kippers planning to vote for parties other than UKIP in the locals
Thought so that would make it about right .
As you're the font of all knowledge in these things, I'm right in thinking all the wards that make up the Sheffield Hallam constituency voted yesterday and the results show the Lib Dems still strong there?
And Lab defeating Clegg in 2015 is one for the fairies.
Didn't they defeat the Lib Dem leader in Sheffield?
It's looking like No Overall Majority can't stay longer than evens forever the way this is going. 4-way politics makes it hard to call, but the evidence is pointing more and more to no-one winning.
I think if UKIP get 33% in the Euros the 17% projected share will look very strange by comparison, and wouldn't be surprised to see some of the experts starting to question it.
Why , did not one pollster (can't remember which ) question UKIP voters and 43% said they would be voting differently in local elections to the Euros
Survation, they had 41% of European election voting Kippers planning to vote for parties other than UKIP in the locals
On that basis, UKIP is going to do stunningly well in Euros (compared to the locals).
Other elections
Of those UKIP European voters who also have a local election on Thursday, 41% will not be voting UKIP in the local elections. Further 29% of all EP UKIP voters would not vote UKIP in a general election. In contrast Labour retain 91% of their European vote in local elections and 95% in the forthcoming Westminster election.
I think if UKIP get 33% in the Euros the 17% projected share will look very strange by comparison, and wouldn't be surprised to see some of the experts starting to question it.
Why , did not one pollster (can't remember which ) question UKIP voters and 43% said they would be voting differently in local elections to the Euros
Survation, they had 41% of European election voting Kippers planning to vote for parties other than UKIP in the locals
On that basis, UKIP is going to do stunningly well in Euros (compared to the locals).
Other elections
Of those UKIP European voters who also have a local election on Thursday, 41% will not be voting UKIP in the local elections. Further 29% of all EP UKIP voters would not vote UKIP in a general election. In contrast Labour retain 91% of their European vote in local elections and 95% in the forthcoming Westminster election.
I think if UKIP get 33% in the Euros the 17% projected share will look very strange by comparison, and wouldn't be surprised to see some of the experts starting to question it.
Why , did not one pollster (can't remember which ) question UKIP voters and 43% said they would be voting differently in local elections to the Euros
Survation, they had 41% of European election voting Kippers planning to vote for parties other than UKIP in the locals
Thought so that would make it about right .
As you're the font of all knowledge in these things, I'm right in thinking all the wards that make up the Sheffield Hallam constituency voted yesterday and the results show the Lib Dems still strong there?
And Lab defeating Clegg in 2015 is one for the fairies.
Didn't they defeat the Lib Dem leader in Sheffield?
I think if UKIP get 33% in the Euros the 17% projected share will look very strange by comparison, and wouldn't be surprised to see some of the experts starting to question it.
Why , did not one pollster (can't remember which ) question UKIP voters and 43% said they would be voting differently in local elections to the Euros
Survation, they had 41% of European election voting Kippers planning to vote for parties other than UKIP in the locals
On that basis, UKIP is going to do stunningly well in Euros (compared to the locals).
Other elections
Of those UKIP European voters who also have a local election on Thursday, 41% will not be voting UKIP in the local elections. Further 29% of all EP UKIP voters would not vote UKIP in a general election. In contrast Labour retain 91% of their European vote in local elections and 95% in the forthcoming Westminster election.
Labour also came first in Simon Hughes' Bermondsey seat, which is a real shock.
In some respects, Bermondsey currently appears to be THE value bet for next year's GE. Baxter's Electoral Calculus gives Labour a whopping 62.3% chance of wininning this seat and Simon Hughes only a 26.6% chances of successfully holding it for the LibDems. Compare those figures with the betting odds on offer from those nice people at Paddy Power where Labour is priced at 15/8, compared with the LibDems at the very short price of 4/11.
I know which one I'd rather be on, but do your own research
@jameschappers: Labour MPs turn on Miliband over 'disastrous' campaign and failure to confront Ukip threat #tomorrowspaperstoday http://t.co/4sl83wGPBa
It's looking like No Overall Majority can't stay longer than evens forever the way this is going. 4-way politics makes it hard to call, but the evidence is pointing more and more to no-one winning.
I'll float this idea again. Maybe we don't have a 4 party politics, may be we have a 3 party system, just we are going through the process of replacing the third party. I have no idea what the outcome of that process will be but I doubt it will look like the political map we now have.
A q for the local election experts on here: How come the Tories still have more total councillors, when Labour have won the locals for the last 4 years in a row (which is a full election cycle, right?)?
The Tories built up a huge number of councillors under Cameron. Massive leads for five years. Ed has done nowhere near that well in the last four years. His gains have been poor. Even IDS did better in the locals after Blair's destruction of the Tory local party machine.
Has anyone figured out why the seat totals on BBC and Sky are totally different for all parties . I have a possible reason .
Depending on whether you compare with the 2010 results or the situation just before the election, which would include by-elections and defections during the last 4 years.
I think if UKIP get 33% in the Euros the 17% projected share will look very strange by comparison, and wouldn't be surprised to see some of the experts starting to question it.
Why , did not one pollster (can't remember which ) question UKIP voters and 43% said they would be voting differently in local elections to the Euros
Survation, they had 41% of European election voting Kippers planning to vote for parties other than UKIP in the locals
On that basis, UKIP is going to do stunningly well in Euros (compared to the locals).
Other elections
Of those UKIP European voters who also have a local election on Thursday, 41% will not be voting UKIP in the local elections. Further 29% of all EP UKIP voters would not vote UKIP in a general election. In contrast Labour retain 91% of their European vote in local elections and 95% in the forthcoming Westminster election.
I think if UKIP get 33% in the Euros the 17% projected share will look very strange by comparison, and wouldn't be surprised to see some of the experts starting to question it.
Why , did not one pollster (can't remember which ) question UKIP voters and 43% said they would be voting differently in local elections to the Euros
Survation, they had 41% of European election voting Kippers planning to vote for parties other than UKIP in the locals
On that basis, UKIP is going to do stunningly well in Euros (compared to the locals).
Other elections
Of those UKIP European voters who also have a local election on Thursday, 41% will not be voting UKIP in the local elections. Further 29% of all EP UKIP voters would not vote UKIP in a general election. In contrast Labour retain 91% of their European vote in local elections and 95% in the forthcoming Westminster election.
I think if UKIP get 33% in the Euros the 17% projected share will look very strange by comparison, and wouldn't be surprised to see some of the experts starting to question it.
Why , did not one pollster (can't remember which ) question UKIP voters and 43% said they would be voting differently in local elections to the Euros
Survation, they had 41% of European election voting Kippers planning to vote for parties other than UKIP in the locals
On that basis, UKIP is going to do stunningly well in Euros (compared to the locals).
Other elections
Of those UKIP European voters who also have a local election on Thursday, 41% will not be voting UKIP in the local elections. Further 29% of all EP UKIP voters would not vote UKIP in a general election. In contrast Labour retain 91% of their European vote in local elections and 95% in the forthcoming Westminster election.
Labour now absolutely dominant in its London citadel.
It's the rest of the country that poses a problem.
You can keep it, as long as you promise not to bug the rest of us. In fact, that's a great idea. Your gang can have London, give the Tories some other god forsaken city, say, Brum or something. The LDs can have a couple of terraced houses in Eastleigh, UKIP can have Lincolnshire. The rest of us will get on with being normal.
Has anyone figured out why the seat totals on BBC and Sky are totally different for all parties . I have a possible reason .
Depending on whether you compare with the 2010 results or the situation just before the election, which would include by-elections and defections during the last 4 years.
No I am sure that is not right . I believe the BBC are showing the number of seats won yesterday and Sky are showing the total number of seats after yesterday on each council . For those with all out elections the numbers will be the same but for councils electing by 1/2 or 1/3rd Sky will show a higher number than the BBC . The gains and losses should be virtually the same .
Is it still possible to bet on the Euros? I'm still wondering whether UKIP might pull off a shock result in Wales, with a very low turnout due to no local elections.
Comments
Well guess what, their core vote has found somewhere else to go. As both Labour and Tory have far more core than swing voters this means that both will have to tack to their respective cores and abandon the "centre" ie Liberal ground and this distortion of democracy with three parties run by an elite that you can hardly put a cigarette paper between will hopefully end. For that I cannot thank Nigel Farage enough
Whether UKIP will be a flash in the pan or do to the Conservatives what the DUP did to the UUP remains to be seen. However I'm sure the first time labour had any successes in the early 20th Century received wisdom was that it was a protest vote against Liberal policy and they would be a flash in the pan that woudl soon die out.
I wonder what the odds are on the 1992 committee receiving enough complaints to trigger a leadership election this November are?
Quick look and I saw 4 London names I recognised, covering nearly 400K of the 1.7m votes Andy has included so far, where UKIP were struggling to get 5%, so the current 17% contains it's fair share of down-escalators.
Con: 10702 - 38.29%
LD: 6364 - 22.77%
Grn: 3864 - 13.82% (7/8)
Lab: 3209 - 11.48%
UKIP: 2875 - 10.29% (4/8)
Res: 937 - 3.35% (3/8)
Where District council wards coincide with County Council Divisions, a meaningful comparison between 2013 and 2014 can be made. On the face of it, it looks as if UKIP's support held steady, overall.
UKIP have now won 3 seats in Gooshays, and Havering will go to NOC.
I have no idea why you have suddenly brought the Lib Dims into the mix. I was in no way making a comparison and certainly hold no candle for that bunch of wishy-washy, all things to all men fence sitters.
I am not sure therefore what accounts for this reaction on your part to an observation which is based simply on the conclusion that can legitimately be made from the PNS calculation used in every local election I can remember. The fact that they appear to be making more significant seat gains than last year despite a falling PNS may reflect that their vote is becoming more efficiently distributed- ultimately this process will be very good news to UKIP.
A Lab to UKIP defector missed a seat by 12 votes.
If only Tories would stop cosseting private landlords and help working people
Lab 595 (23.6%)
Green 542 (21.5%)
UKIP 513 (20.4%)
Con 451 (17.9%)
LD 418 (16.6%)
Coming to the end of counting the first round. Lutfur Rahman clearly in the lead. Possibly by too big a margin.
Phil Briscoe @philbriscoe 7m
Looks like first round counting is nearly complete in Tower Hamlets and it will go to a second round - which means Biggs should snatch it
Hardly surprising what happened if there wasn't a major sprinkler system. Apparently a projector exploded in the basement when students were preparing their final year graduation projects. The building has a great deal of wooden panelling and of course over 100 years that wood will have soaked in paint fumes, turpentine fumes etc and no doubt all through the building there would have been store rooms containing paints and thinners. They would explode on coming into contact with the heat from fire.
My late father studied there and my mother as a youngster modelled for fabric and costume students in the mid 50s. A truly major tragedy for Scotland.
He seems to have had quite the campaign against him tbh - a bit like UKIP and the nats !
Ah see you got that :-) Apologies.
Wisdom is Lutfur ahead by some 8k on first preferences and that Biggs doesn't have enough second prefs...Lab sources
I gather that Lutfur hit around 48% of first preferences (from sampling). That's a big ask for Biggs @LGiU @TedJeory Tower hamlets
Apologies if its boring anyone, but several PBers including yours truly have backed Rahman !
Con 10,384 (27.58%)
UKIP 9,891 (26.27%)
LD 9,271 (24.62%)
Lab 4,029 (10.70%)
Green 2,132 (5.66%)
Ind 1,943 (5.16%)
Changes since 2010 locals:
Con -15.91%
UKIP +25.10%
LD -11.36%
Lab +1.19%
Green +1.75%
Ind -0.55%
It is also the case that historically millions of Irish/Scots/Welsh/Northerners have moved to the Smoke for work. Maybe some need to think about moving the other way for accommodation. Before I get lambasted for the mere suggestion, I am fully aware it's a wrench, not for everyone etc etc but the reverse was true, and I left my home town far behind in my youth myself.
Also given London wages ever considered BTL in cheaper parts of the country as a way of building equity?
London is an amazing place with unique benefits nowhere else in the UK can match ( or even the world), it ain't going to have Huddersfield or Port Talbot's house prices. More can be done to encourage building I'm sure, but vilifying landlords many of who are merely seeking a return on 40 years of hard work denied them by crap returns elsewhere isn't going to help. Sorry.
As for the potential for a Labour recovery before May 2015 .... There simply isn't any.
My lab/con battleground GE marginal seats poll will be at http://lordashcroftpolls.com at130pm tomorrow. Pls register for this and all my research
Titters ....
Lab 51.1%
UKIP 28.2%
Con 12.5%
Putting People First 4.39%
Ind 2.57%
LD 0.5% (one seat contested)
17% national equivalent for UKIP in these seats means they should be taking 12-14% of actual votes once you account for the location and the lower number of seats contested. That's clearly not what happened. The experts have got this one wrong.
Baxter's Electoral Calculus gives Labour a whopping 62.3% chance of wininning this seat and Simon Hughes only a 26.6% chances of successfully holding it for the LibDems.
Compare those figures with the betting odds on offer from those nice people at Paddy Power where Labour is priced at 15/8, compared with the LibDems at the very short price of 4/11.
I know which one I'd rather be on, but do your own research.
You have my apology. Shall we leave it at that.
Looks a bit odd but has never let me down.
All strangely reminiscent of the previous accessions where the establishment decides that it was all a to do about nothing after 3 months, and then all the fruitcake predictions come true.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27517379
The distinction between the two sets of figures, which are from the same dataset (both considering the number of NI registrations for those immigrants in work) is that yesterday's figures were over the last year and the figures a few days ago for the previous three months. Therefore while there has been a rise in Romanian and Bulgarian immigration, it didn't happen after immediately after 1 January.
Currently Lab 19 Con 16 LD 10
Of those UKIP European voters who also have a local election on Thursday, 41% will not be voting UKIP in the local elections. Further 29% of all EP UKIP voters would not vote UKIP in a general election. In contrast Labour retain 91% of their European vote in local elections and 95% in the forthcoming Westminster election.
http://survation.com/survations-final-european-parliament-2014-poll-results-survation-daily-mirror/
Lab -10.63%
UKIP +16.41%
Con -10.32%
LD -9.68%
Ind +7.83%
Putting Hartlepool First +19.97%
BNP -2.72%
And Lab defeating Clegg in 2015 is one for the fairies.
I'm afraid there are no houses.
Kind regards - and good luck!
George.
P.S. Sorry you had to pick up the tab for our economic crisis. But don't moan about it - don't want anyone to think you're 'entitled'!
It's the rest of the country that poses a problem.
If that stat is right, 100 locals would give 169 Euro votes.
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.101416490
Lab 3.15
Con 3.75
NOM 2.34
Other 170
So that's (as you say) 1.69x multiplier from local votes to Euros.
UKIP 7,122 (34.03%)
Lab 6,965 (33.28%)
Con 5,892 (28.15%)
LD 563 (2.69%)
Changes since 2010 locals:
UKIP +34.03%
Lab -3.05%
Con -13.49%
LD -18.86%
Con 23%, Lab 27%, LD 9%, UKIP 32%
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/May-voting-poll-Mirror-tables.pdf
(They're the source of the local vote stat)
Don't lottsa people on here tell us that London is the centre of the universe,
or it's near equivalent?
The rest of us will get on with being normal.
Biased BBC lefties.