Is it still possible to bet on the Euros? I'm still wondering whether UKIP might pull off a shock result in Wales, with a very low turnout due to no local elections.
They might well beat Plaid whose (utterly useless) leader went well out of her way a few months ago to vilify UKIP here.
Is it still possible to bet on the Euros? I'm still wondering whether UKIP might pull off a shock result in Wales, with a very low turnout due to no local elections.
Ladbrokes still has odds, only on the overall result I believe.
Meanwhile PaddyPower will give you 1.22 on Labour winning Brent Central in 2015. Today they took 16 seats straight from the LDs, leaving them almost unopposed on the council. The Ld incumbent is unpopular and retiring. DYOR, but I reckon it's a shoe-in.
Personally I think the 2011 London riots were the last straw for a lot of Tory voters living in boroughs like Croydon and Enfield. And once they move out the Tories won't have a hope of winning many seats in those areas.
Has anyone figured out why the seat totals on BBC and Sky are totally different for all parties . I have a possible reason .
Depending on whether you compare with the 2010 results or the situation just before the election, which would include by-elections and defections during the last 4 years.
No I am sure that is not right . I believe the BBC are showing the number of seats won yesterday and Sky are showing the total number of seats after yesterday on each council . For those with all out elections the numbers will be the same but for councils electing by 1/2 or 1/3rd Sky will show a higher number than the BBC . The gains and losses should be virtually the same .
Oh yes, I should have thought of that. That must be the explanation. Nice to have two separate ways of looking things rather than uniformity.
Personally I think the 2011 London riots were the last straw for a lot of Tory voters living in boroughs like Croydon and Enfield. And once they move out the Tories won't have a hope of winning many seats in those areas.
Mr. JS! I protest, Sir. What you are suggesting sounds very much like "white-flight" which diverse posters on this site have assured has not happened, is not happening and will not happen. To suggest that it has, is and will is therefore tantamount to treason or racism, which these days seems to worse..
I think if UKIP get 33% in the Euros the 17% projected share will look very strange by comparison, and wouldn't be surprised to see some of the experts starting to question it.
Why , did not one pollster (can't remember which ) question UKIP voters and 43% said they would be voting differently in local elections to the Euros
Survation, they had 41% of European election voting Kippers planning to vote for parties other than UKIP in the locals
On that basis, UKIP is going to do stunningly well in Euros (compared to the locals).
Other elections
Of those UKIP European voters who also have a local election on Thursday, 41% will not be voting UKIP in the local elections. Further 29% of all EP UKIP voters would not vote UKIP in a general election. In contrast Labour retain 91% of their European vote in local elections and 95% in the forthcoming Westminster election.
Do we know in how many constituencies are UKIP ahead? Last year they where ahead in 8 if I remember from the Survation analysis.
Harlow and Castle Point are the ones I know about so far. I'll be doing Great Yarmouth shortly. I'd be amazed if they aren't in front in North East Lincolnshire as well.
Typical of the Telegraph to get things so totally wrong. Fortunately, we on here are sophisticated enough to know that UKIP, far from surging, is going backwards in its support to a significant degree (we have a graph from OGH that proves it). I wonder why, apart from the crossword, anyone buys the Telegraph these days.
Typical of the Telegraph to get things so totally wrong. Fortunately, we on here are sophisticated enough to know that UKIP, far from surging, is going backwards in its support to a significant degree (we have a graph from OGH that proves it). I wonder why, apart from the crossword anyone buys the Telegraph these days.
I wonder why, apart from the crossword anyone buys the Telegraph these days.
Typical of the Telegraph to get things so totally wrong. Fortunately, we on here are sophisticated enough to know that UKIP, far from surging, is going backwards in its support to a significant degree (we have a graph from OGH that proves it). I wonder why, apart from the crossword anyone buys the Telegraph these days.
Typical of the Telegraph to get things so totally wrong. Fortunately, we on here are sophisticated enough to know that UKIP, far from surging, is going backwards in its support to a significant degree (we have a graph from OGH that proves it). I wonder why, apart from the crossword anyone buys the Telegraph these days.
I wonder why, apart from the crossword anyone buys the Telegraph these days.
I envision a UKIP heartland as a coastal band from Newcastle to Plymouth 30 miles deep with an extra UKIP blob in the midlands from the legacy of Enoch Powell. Such a heartland contains a number of Labour seats, but nothing to trouble Labour in an election if it's not a close election. With polls narrowing I think they might go for a referendum pledge just to be safe, not now but during the conference season.
Typical of the Telegraph to get things so totally wrong. Fortunately, we on here are sophisticated enough to know that UKIP, far from surging, is going backwards in its support to a significant degree (we have a graph from OGH that proves it). I wonder why, apart from the crossword anyone buys the Telegraph these days.
I wonder why, apart from the crossword anyone buys the Telegraph these days.
Apparently it's very good for lighting fires.
Is the paper perforated, soft and absorbent?
Yes, but the ink comes off ... so you need to wash your botty anyway after all ...
Typical of the Telegraph to get things so totally wrong. Fortunately, we on here are sophisticated enough to know that UKIP, far from surging, is going backwards in its support to a significant degree (we have a graph from OGH that proves it). I wonder why, apart from the crossword anyone buys the Telegraph these days.
Do we know in how many constituencies are UKIP ahead? Last year they where ahead in 8 if I remember from the Survation analysis.
Harlow and Castle Point are the ones I know about so far. I'll be doing Great Yarmouth shortly. I'd be amazed if they aren't in front in North East Lincolnshire as well.
I have a list of possible UKIP seats and I wonder how they went in those so far. Thanet S. Sittingbourne Gillingham Rochester Castle Point Southend W Rochford Harwich Suffolk Coast Broadland NW Cambridgeshire Boston Bournemouth E Bournemouth W Devon E Dorset S Newton Abbot Poole Totnes Eastleigh Portsmouth S Torbay
So far Castle Point and Portsmouth S are ones they've done ok and I didn't had Harlow on the list, with Eastleigh bad. I wonder how is the state on the others.
Interesting mix of photos of politicians on the front pages:
Express going with a standard, ecstatic Farage pic.
the Mail going with one of Ed M looing at something with total contempt it looks like (seriously, the only time he's looked harsher is that one at Wimbledon with him glaring at Cameron) and one of Farage not just beaming ecstatically, but eyes clenched shut and teeth together, so he looks more like a man who's taken a cricket ball to the groin, but he's wearing a box so he's feeling pretty ok about it,
and the Independent going for one of Farage looking immensely satisified, but in a dignified way as he appreciately sniffs his pint at arms length.
Another thing those spinning the" UKIP did worse than last year line" forgot is that in a lot of London seats UKIP only put up one candidate out of a maximum of three which would depress their vote share.
It shows a certain maturity that UKIP are not willing to put up unsuitable candidates to boost their poll share.
Meanwhile in London Borough of Havering the councillors who defected to UKIP seem to have all kept their seats (7 UKIP elected) and Tories appear to have lost control to a coalition of residents associations and UKIP with residents making numerous gains at tory expense and Labour reduced to one seat. Not all bad news for UKIP in London.
I suspect that Labours successes elsewhere in London are not unlinked to the insane house and rental prices in London which is an increasingly large issue that could have motivated people who are shut out of being able to buy a house and forced to hand over most of their wages to buy to let spivs for the forseeable future to vote labour, which would have the effect of squeezing UKIP.
Do we know in how many constituencies are UKIP ahead? Last year they where ahead in 8 if I remember from the Survation analysis.
Harlow and Castle Point are the ones I know about so far. I'll be doing Great Yarmouth shortly. I'd be amazed if they aren't in front in North East Lincolnshire as well.
I have a list of possible UKIP seats and I wonder how they went in those so far. Thanet S. Sittingbourne Gillingham Rochester Castle Point Southend W Rochford Harwich Suffolk Coast Broadland NW Cambridgeshire Boston Bournemouth E Bournemouth W Devon E Dorset S Newton Abbot Poole Totnes Eastleigh Portsmouth S Torbay
So far Castle Point and Portsmouth S are ones they've done ok and I didn't had Harlow on the list, with Eastleigh bad. I wonder how is the state on the others.
Another thing those spinning the" UKIP did worse than last year line" forgot is that in a lot of London seats UKIP only put up one candidate out of a maximum of three which would depress their vote share.
It shows a certain maturity that UKIP are not willing to put up unsuitable candidates to boost their poll share..
Yes, I'm sure their high standards of candidate selection are why they did that.
Comments
Meanwhile PaddyPower will give you 1.22 on Labour winning Brent Central in 2015. Today they took 16 seats straight from the LDs, leaving them almost unopposed on the council. The Ld incumbent is unpopular and retiring. DYOR, but I reckon it's a shoe-in.
Last year they where ahead in 8 if I remember from the Survation analysis.
Con 1,188
Lab 1,179
UKIP 1,147
LD 178
TUSC 51
In 2010 the Tories won the seat by 112 votes over Labour.
For some reason Farage looks like a Shar Pei fighting dog.
Apparently it's very good for lighting fires.
With polls narrowing I think they might go for a referendum pledge just to be safe, not now but during the conference season.
Lab 19,335 (33.87%)
Con 17,659 (30.94%)
UKIP 8,640 (15.14%)
LD 4,789 (8.39%)
Green 2,933 (5.14%)
Ind 2,096 (3.67%)
TUSC 1,628 (2.85%)
Changes since 2010 locals:
Lab +0.84%
Con -3.27%
UKIP +14.07%
LD -20.05%
Green +2.31%
Ind +3.25%
TUSC +2.85%
Swing, Con to Lab: 2.06%
Thanet S.
Sittingbourne
Gillingham
Rochester
Castle Point
Southend W
Rochford
Harwich
Suffolk Coast
Broadland
NW Cambridgeshire
Boston
Bournemouth E
Bournemouth W
Devon E
Dorset S
Newton Abbot
Poole
Totnes
Eastleigh
Portsmouth S
Torbay
So far Castle Point and Portsmouth S are ones they've done ok and I didn't had Harlow on the list, with Eastleigh bad. I wonder how is the state on the others.
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/98546/the_daily_mail_friday_23rd_may_2014.html
Express going with a standard, ecstatic Farage pic.
the Mail going with one of Ed M looing at something with total contempt it looks like (seriously, the only time he's looked harsher is that one at Wimbledon with him glaring at Cameron) and one of Farage not just beaming ecstatically, but eyes clenched shut and teeth together, so he looks more like a man who's taken a cricket ball to the groin, but he's wearing a box so he's feeling pretty ok about it,
and the Independent going for one of Farage looking immensely satisified, but in a dignified way as he appreciately sniffs his pint at arms length.
It shows a certain maturity that UKIP are not willing to put up unsuitable candidates to boost their poll share.
Meanwhile in London Borough of Havering the councillors who defected to UKIP seem to have all kept their seats (7 UKIP elected) and Tories appear to have lost control to a coalition of residents associations and UKIP with residents making numerous gains at tory expense and Labour reduced to one seat. Not all bad news for UKIP in London.
I suspect that Labours successes elsewhere in London are not unlinked to the insane house and rental prices in London which is an increasingly large issue that could have motivated people who are shut out of being able to buy a house and forced to hand over most of their wages to buy to let spivs for the forseeable future to vote labour, which would have the effect of squeezing UKIP.