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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ukip sees 4 point drop in its projected national vote share

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  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    I agree with you about Balls' comments. I can't see how a senior member of the party admitting they have not yet got it right can be considered 'ferrets in a sack'.

    Yes, and Balls spoke in straightforward English as well. He's a good communicator, much better than Ed M in my view. I think Labour made a big mistake not choosing him as leader out of the five candidates on offer (and I'm sure he agrees with me!)
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    What news of AIFE? I assume like UKIP they stood in the locals?

    They stood in a couple of Exeter wards, and received respectable if unspectacular results.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534

    @Bond_James_Bond - "To the benefit of Farage's fascist party, unfortunately."

    A disgraceful remark. You and your type are a liability to the Conservative Party.

    UKIP are your opponents, not your enemy.

    No, UKIP are everybody's enemy. They are not some cheery little insurgency - they are vicious, intolerant, minority-hating loonies. The "independence" tag is just a lie. They are a sboʍ-out party who given the opportunity would start repatriating and expropriating. They are just the BNP in blazers.

    Can we assume that since you voted for AIFE you are also a closet racist?

    No. I voted for them to enrage kippers; seems to be working. Nobody can explain to me what MEPs do, or what difference having MEPs of this rather than that party actually makes. So it is an opportunity for frivolity. AIFE appears to be the frivolous work a fairly typically frivolous kipper who is enraged at losing his place at the trough, so he starts a spoiler party. I'm helping him to spoil things, particularly for kippers.
    I've seen a lot of frothers here at PB, but I think that you have just broken the record with that post.
    He is just upset because he voted for BNP-lite.
    And won't St. Nigel be hopping mad when he sees how many votes the People's Front of Judaea lost to the Judaean People's Front?

    Even if it's one he'll still be angry. He's an angry sort of chap.

    On what specific issues does UKIP disagree with AIFE Richard? ITYF it's none. They're both identically disgusting.

    I voted Labour in Brent East in 2005. I can't stand Labour, but I figured if I could help keep it marginal by doing so, the two leftist envy parties would have fewer resources to contest other marginals where the outcome did matter.
    Anti-UKIP voters should vote for parties that can gain win seats in place of UKIP. Voting for AIFE simply lowers the percentage share that UKIP requires to win, in any region.

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682

    Socrates said:

    On what specific issues does UKIP disagree with AIFE Richard? ITYF it's none. They're both identically disgusting.

    Well UKIP believes that former BNP members should not be allowed to join the party, while AIFE welcomes them with open arms.
    So there is not one single ex-BNP member in UKIP? Yeah, right.

    The Popular Front of Judea.

    There is certainly not one that is known to the party or they would be expelled since it is in the party rules that no former member of the BNP can be a member of the party.

    Yet more desperate spinning from the man who voted 'racist'.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    I voted Green in the Euros hoping to push the Lib Dems to 5th in England.
    antifrank said:

    Absolutely awful, Mr. Navabi, poor for everyone. However, I think one party might be celebrating next Monday. I think UKIP are going to exceed expectations in the Euros.

    Yes, I agree with that. In fact I posted a comment late last night speculating that, because of split-ticket votes and higher Euro election enthusiasm helping them in areas where there are not locals, UKIP might do relatively less well in the locals but clean up in the Euros. I wouldn't be surprised if the Greens also do relatively well in the Euros, at the expense of the LibDems and Labour. So I'm still predicting UKIP/Lab/Con/Green/LD as the order. We shall see!
    The Greens have apparently tallied 10% of the vote in the local seats where they stood. I still think they may surprise significantly on the upside in the European elections.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    Matthew Goodwin ‏@GoodwinMJ 3m
    In Labour-run Wolverhampton #UKIP retain their seat and finished 2nd in 17 out of 19 other local contests

    To finish second in 17 out of 19 seats suggests exceptionally poor targeting.
    Ha ha ha!!

    I forgot, "Its always bad for UKIP on PB!!!!"
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @IanDunt: Even political journalists, who are paid to pay attention, struggle to summarise what Labour's campaign was about http://t.co/Fwwjqmrhkl
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    felix said:

    If the vote share for the locals is as close as it seems does this mean the chance of a Labour second place could be in doubt for the euros?

    I wouldn't expect so, because if (as we all assume) UKIP got a much larger share in the Euros than that implied by the locals, that increase probably came disproportionately from the Tories.

    Not according to Survation.

    UKIP EU Parliament voters split for the locals to:

    Con 7.9%, Lab 9.6%, LD 13.1%, UKIP 59.2%

    (table 14, p.17)
    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/May-voting-poll-Mirror-tables.pdf
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    antifrank said:

    You don't have to hate all immigrants to hate some or indeed many immigrants. Your party leader knows the difference.

    Is there any person of foreign origin you've met in the UK you dislike antifrank? If so, is it reasonable to say "antifrank dislikes immigrants"?
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Tragedy: The BNP have held their only defending seat by 6 votes!

    http://www.pendle.gov.uk/site/custom_scripts/viewelection.php?pollid=60
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Haha

    tom jamieson ‏@jamiesont 15m
    UKIP calling us Londoners a cultured elite as ridiculous as saying Glyndebourne's production of Der Rosenkavalier lacks emotional resonance.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    This, from Andrew Sparrow on the Guardian live blog, is devastating.
    The Tories have helpfully sent me a list of Labour figures criticising the leadership today...
    ...
    If Labour want to sent me quotes from Conservative MPs criticising David Cameron, or CCHQ, I would be more than happy to post those too. But they haven't. In fact, I've had one email from them all day. Frankly, their press operation has been rather useless.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682

    I agree with you about Balls' comments. I can't see how a senior member of the party admitting they have not yet got it right can be considered 'ferrets in a sack'.

    Yes, and Balls spoke in straightforward English as well. He's a good communicator, much better than Ed M in my view. I think Labour made a big mistake not choosing him as leader out of the five candidates on offer (and I'm sure he agrees with me!)
    Even I agree with you (yes I know that is unheard of :-) ). I have considerable liking for Balls although I would not vote for him in a million years because of his policies. He wouod have been a far better leader for Labour than Ed Miliband
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    Not according to Survation.

    UKIP EU Parliament voters split for the locals to:

    Con 7.9%, Lab 9.6%, LD 13.1%, UKIP 59.2%

    (table 14, p.17)
    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/May-voting-poll-Mirror-tables.pdf

    Hmm, interesting, I hadn't seen that. If so, maybe Labour will be pushed into third place. That would be fun.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    Matthew Goodwin ‏@GoodwinMJ 3m
    In Labour-run Wolverhampton #UKIP retain their seat and finished 2nd in 17 out of 19 other local contests

    To finish second in 17 out of 19 seats suggests exceptionally poor targeting.
    A valid criticism. UKIP's huge vote in Sutton won us no seats, and a similarly huge vote in Havering may result in a string of second places.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Quincel said:

    Neil Hamilton on BBC News 24, Dimbleby cheekily asks him if he'll be the UKIP candidate for Tatton next year.

    Hamilton is all that is bad about UKIP, and more.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Sajid Javid:

    "These people are angry about politics, about issues in our country. There is a lot of frustration there and the way we have to respond to that is turn that anger into answers and look at the issues that are causing most concern.

    I think those are around the economy. It is recovering but is fragile still, people are naturally concerned about that. It is about Europe, it is about immigration and it is probably about welfare reform as well.

    We have a plan as a government on all these issues. I think this shows we need to redouble our efforts further, see what else we can do. We have to do a better job of communicating that as well."

    I have to say, "having a plan", "redoubling our efforts" and "doing a better job of communicating" sound remarkably like "we're not going to change a damn thing".
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Socrates said:

    antifrank said:

    You don't have to hate all immigrants to hate some or indeed many immigrants. Your party leader knows the difference.

    Is there any person of foreign origin you've met in the UK you dislike antifrank? If so, is it reasonable to say "antifrank dislikes immigrants"?
    I judge people individually. So, for example, I would be unperturbed by Romanians moving in next door to me.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    In fairness, UKIP mostly hasn't yet got the wealth of historical canvass data that the others have.
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    Sean_F said:

    @Bond_James_Bond - "To the benefit of Farage's fascist party, unfortunately."

    A disgraceful remark. You and your type are a liability to the Conservative Party.

    UKIP are your opponents, not your enemy.

    No, UKIP are everybody's enemy. They are not some cheery little insurgency - they are vicious, intolerant, minority-hating loonies. The "independence" tag is just a lie. They are a sboʍ-out party who given the opportunity would start repatriating and expropriating. They are just the BNP in blazers.

    Can we assume that since you voted for AIFE you are also a closet racist?

    No. I voted for them to enrage kippers; seems to be working. Nobody can explain to me what MEPs do, or what difference having MEPs of this rather than that party actually makes. So it is an opportunity for frivolity. AIFE appears to be the frivolous work a fairly typically frivolous kipper who is enraged at losing his place at the trough, so he starts a spoiler party. I'm helping him to spoil things, particularly for kippers.
    I've seen a lot of frothers here at PB, but I think that you have just broken the record with that post.
    He is just upset because he voted for BNP-lite.
    And won't St. Nigel be hopping mad when he sees how many votes the People's Front of Judaea lost to the Judaean People's Front?

    Even if it's one he'll still be angry. He's an angry sort of chap.

    On what specific issues does UKIP disagree with AIFE Richard? ITYF it's none. They're both identically disgusting.

    I voted Labour in Brent East in 2005. I can't stand Labour, but I figured if I could help keep it marginal by doing so, the two leftist envy parties would have fewer resources to contest other marginals where the outcome did matter.
    Anti-UKIP voters should vote for parties that can gain win seats in place of UKIP. Voting for AIFE simply lowers the percentage share that UKIP requires to win, in any region.

    Only if you imagine that it actually matters who wins. So far as I can tell, it does not matter wins the euros one single jot. They are elections wholly without point.

    They're a riskless, costless opportunity to royally piss off people who deserve it.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    antifrank said:

    Socrates said:

    antifrank said:

    You don't have to hate all immigrants to hate some or indeed many immigrants. Your party leader knows the difference.

    Is there any person of foreign origin you've met in the UK you dislike antifrank? If so, is it reasonable to say "antifrank dislikes immigrants"?
    I judge people individually. So, for example, I would be unperturbed by Romanians moving in next door to me.
    That wasn't what I asked you.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682

    Sean_F said:

    @Bond_James_Bond - "To the benefit of Farage's fascist party, unfortunately."

    A disgraceful remark. You and your type are a liability to the Conservative Party.

    UKIP are your opponents, not your enemy.

    No, UKIP are everybody's enemy. They are not some cheery little insurgency - they are vicious, intolerant, minority-hating loonies. The "independence" tag is just a lie. They are a sboʍ-out party who given the opportunity would start repatriating and expropriating. They are just the BNP in blazers.

    Can we assume that since you voted for AIFE you are also a closet racist?

    No. I voted for them to enrage kippers; seems to be working. Nobody can explain to me what MEPs do, or what difference having MEPs of this rather than that party actually makes. So it is an opportunity for frivolity. AIFE appears to be the frivolous work a fairly typically frivolous kipper who is enraged at losing his place at the trough, so he starts a spoiler party. I'm helping him to spoil things, particularly for kippers.
    I've seen a lot of frothers here at PB, but I think that you have just broken the record with that post.
    He is just upset because he voted for BNP-lite.
    And won't St. Nigel be hopping mad when he sees how many votes the People's Front of Judaea lost to the Judaean People's Front?

    Even if it's one he'll still be angry. He's an angry sort of chap.

    On what specific issues does UKIP disagree with AIFE Richard? ITYF it's none. They're both identically disgusting.

    I voted Labour in Brent East in 2005. I can't stand Labour, but I figured if I could help keep it marginal by doing so, the two leftist envy parties would have fewer resources to contest other marginals where the outcome did matter.
    Anti-UKIP voters should vote for parties that can gain win seats in place of UKIP. Voting for AIFE simply lowers the percentage share that UKIP requires to win, in any region.

    Only if you imagine that it actually matters who wins. So far as I can tell, it does not matter wins the euros one single jot. They are elections wholly without point.

    They're a riskless, costless opportunity to royally piss off people who deserve it.
    Like you have to immigrants by voting for the BNP-lite.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Sean_F said:

    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    Matthew Goodwin ‏@GoodwinMJ 3m
    In Labour-run Wolverhampton #UKIP retain their seat and finished 2nd in 17 out of 19 other local contests

    To finish second in 17 out of 19 seats suggests exceptionally poor targeting.
    A valid criticism. UKIP's huge vote in Sutton won us no seats, and a similarly huge vote in Havering may result in a string of second places.
    Sean, would it be fair to say that Ukip probably face the same GE problem that the SDP did in 1983 - polling well but failing to hit the target in any seat not previously held.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Amazingly, the Democrats are leading for the Georgia Senate seat, despite the GOP rejecting the Tea Party nut cases:

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2014/georgia/election_2014_georgia_senate
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Let the leadership games commence...

    @robindbrant: fair to say @YvetteCooperMP failed to come close to a ringing endorsement of her leader just then on BBC r4 PM prog
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    antifrank said:

    Socrates said:

    antifrank said:

    You don't have to hate all immigrants to hate some or indeed many immigrants. Your party leader knows the difference.

    Is there any person of foreign origin you've met in the UK you dislike antifrank? If so, is it reasonable to say "antifrank dislikes immigrants"?
    I judge people individually. So, for example, I would be unperturbed by Romanians moving in next door to me.
    This has reminded me that there probably is a reason the AIFE/UKIP/BNP/NO2EU nutters would want to be in local government.

    They could force all the local schools to study Dracula - a book about a bloodsucking murderous Romanian immigrant that's as topical today as when it was written. And just as accurate.

    Them Romanian vampires, comin' over 'ere, suckin' our Bri'ish blood....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Quincel said:

    Tragedy: The BNP have held their only defending seat by 6 votes!

    http://www.pendle.gov.uk/site/custom_scripts/viewelection.php?pollid=60

    Did the witches vote for him ?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited May 2014

    What news of AIFE? I assume like UKIP they stood in the locals?

    They stood in a couple of Exeter wards, and received respectable if unspectacular results.
    No, wait, I got that wrong.

    Their results were okay in wards where UKIP did not also stand a candidate, eg Heavitree, where they received [121 votes] 6% of the vote and didn't come last.

    In a ward where they stood against a UKIP candidate, eg Whipton Barton, their result was pathetic, taking [28 votes] 1.2% of the vote, on a par with TUSC.

    Worth noting that in council and Parliamentary elections the ballot papers are ordered alphabetically by the candidates surname, so AIFE will not have benefited from their contrived name.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682

    antifrank said:

    Socrates said:

    antifrank said:

    You don't have to hate all immigrants to hate some or indeed many immigrants. Your party leader knows the difference.

    Is there any person of foreign origin you've met in the UK you dislike antifrank? If so, is it reasonable to say "antifrank dislikes immigrants"?
    I judge people individually. So, for example, I would be unperturbed by Romanians moving in next door to me.
    This has reminded me that there probably is a reason the AIFE/UKIP/BNP/NO2EU nutters would want to be in local government.

    They could force all the local schools to study Dracula - a book about a bloodsucking murderous Romanian immigrant that's as topical today as when it was written. And just as accurate.

    Them Romanian vampires, comin' over 'ere, suckin' our Bri'ish blood....
    Maybe you should have voted Britain First. They seem to be closer to your political views than AIFE.
  • Max_EdinburghMax_Edinburgh Posts: 347
    There were four Scottish by-elections held on Thursday that counted today. Labour held 2 in Fife (UKIP polled quite well, ahead of the Tories although the Tory vote was marginally up). An independent won a previously Tory held seat in the Borders (although Tory, Lib Dem and I think SNP vote share all increased).

    And remarkably Labour picked up a seat in Argyll & Bute from a ward which I believe had returned 3 SNP councillors (out of a possible 4) previously. The Lib Dems and Tories also increased vote share in this ward.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    JackW said:

    Sean_F said:

    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    Matthew Goodwin ‏@GoodwinMJ 3m
    In Labour-run Wolverhampton #UKIP retain their seat and finished 2nd in 17 out of 19 other local contests

    To finish second in 17 out of 19 seats suggests exceptionally poor targeting.
    A valid criticism. UKIP's huge vote in Sutton won us no seats, and a similarly huge vote in Havering may result in a string of second places.
    Sean, would it be fair to say that Ukip probably face the same GE problem that the SDP did in 1983 - polling well but failing to hit the target in any seat not previously held.

    It could be.

    Totteridge has now begun it's count.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I've heard the experts explaining the reasoning behind UKIP being lower this year and it doesn't sound very convincing to me.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Trafford comparatively weak UKIP presence?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @LucyH_J: You have spoken: The Labour party should oust Ed Miliband
    http://t.co/2lykQ4pPpz
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Socrates said:

    antifrank said:

    Socrates said:

    antifrank said:

    You don't have to hate all immigrants to hate some or indeed many immigrants. Your party leader knows the difference.

    Is there any person of foreign origin you've met in the UK you dislike antifrank? If so, is it reasonable to say "antifrank dislikes immigrants"?
    I judge people individually. So, for example, I would be unperturbed by Romanians moving in next door to me.
    That wasn't what I asked you.
    No, it was a stupid question which wilfully misunderstood the point. No doubt some of every Kipper's best friends are immigrants. That doesn't stop them being xenophobes.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Pulpstar said:

    Quincel said:

    Tragedy: The BNP have held their only defending seat by 6 votes!

    http://www.pendle.gov.uk/site/custom_scripts/viewelection.php?pollid=60

    Did the witches vote for him ?
    He's so committed to the BNP he appears to have been born for the role: check out his initials.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Quincel said:

    Tragedy: The BNP have held their only defending seat by 6 votes!

    http://www.pendle.gov.uk/site/custom_scripts/viewelection.php?pollid=60

    Did the witches vote for him ?
    I wonder what would have happened if they'd used AV.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,466
    Socrates said:

    Amazingly, the Democrats are leading for the Georgia Senate seat, despite the GOP rejecting the Tea Party nut cases:

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2014/georgia/election_2014_georgia_senate


    As you remark, Socco, amazing. But then it is Rasmussen.

    Have they concluded yet the post-mortem on their 2012 Presidential Elections polling?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    antifrank said:

    No, it was a stupid question which wilfully misunderstood the point. No doubt some of every Kipper's best friends are immigrants. That doesn't stop them being xenophobes.

    Your argument seems to be that if someone has some concerns about certain heights, even though they're fine with most of them, that must mean they have a fear of heights.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    The second place candidate, Conservative Neil McGowan polled 333.

    2nd x 333 = 666, the BNP candidate's initials are BNP. All near Shit Hill in Pendle...

    Spooky !
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    People have been stripping their votes...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Socrates said:

    antifrank said:

    No, it was a stupid question which wilfully misunderstood the point. No doubt some of every Kipper's best friends are immigrants. That doesn't stop them being xenophobes.

    Your argument seems to be that if someone has some concerns about certain heights, even though they're fine with most of them, that must mean they have a fear of heights.
    But most Kippers have a problem with most immigrants.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    One Tory success I can live with.
    BBC.
    Former Sun newspaper editor Kelvin MacKenzie narrowly failed to win election to Elmbridge Borough Council.

    Mr MacKenzie, standing as an Independent in St George's Hill ward, won 770 votes but Conservative Simon Foale saw him off with 811.

    When he announced he would stand in March Mr MacKenzie said he wanted lower parking charges for locals and to relocate the council HQ to a cheaper area of the borough.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    dr_spyn said:

    People have been stripping their votes...

    "Peter the Punter" will be pleased ....

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    AndyJS said:

    I've heard the experts explaining the reasoning behind UKIP being lower this year and it doesn't sound very convincing to me.

    Outside of London, UKIP seems likely to win c.7% of the seats, similar to last year. That implies either a similar vote share, or better targeting.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited May 2014
    Brogan no one will remove Miliband or Cameron.

    Forgets that Labor in Australia ditched Gillard in order to minimise losses.It shouldn't be completely ruled out.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Told everyone they were getting to excited last night. This is a good result for UKIP but it's not mega....
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    antifrank said:

    Socrates said:

    antifrank said:

    No, it was a stupid question which wilfully misunderstood the point. No doubt some of every Kipper's best friends are immigrants. That doesn't stop them being xenophobes.

    Your argument seems to be that if someone has some concerns about certain heights, even though they're fine with most of them, that must mean they have a fear of heights.
    But most Kippers have a problem with most immigrants.
    How would you know that?

    The Ukip supporters on here dont slag off immigrants. How many do you know in real life?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    dr_spyn said:

    Brogan no one will remove Miliband.

    Forgets that Labor in Australia ditched Gillard in order to minimise losses.It shouldn't be completely ruled out.

    And John McTernan has been on TV saying what good shape Labour are in...
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    antifrank said:

    Socrates said:

    antifrank said:

    No, it was a stupid question which wilfully misunderstood the point. No doubt some of every Kipper's best friends are immigrants. That doesn't stop them being xenophobes.

    Your argument seems to be that if someone has some concerns about certain heights, even though they're fine with most of them, that must mean they have a fear of heights.
    But most Kippers have a problem with most immigrants.
    No, they have a problem with the scale of immigration. They do not dislike most immigrants on an individual basis.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited May 2014

    One Tory success I can live with.
    BBC.
    Former Sun newspaper editor Kelvin MacKenzie narrowly failed to win election to Elmbridge Borough Council.

    Mr MacKenzie, standing as an Independent in St George's Hill ward, won 770 votes but Conservative Simon Foale saw him off with 811.

    When he announced he would stand in March Mr MacKenzie said he wanted lower parking charges for locals and to relocate the council HQ to a cheaper area of the borough.

    'lower parking charges for locals'

    Eh? Who in St Georges Hill has problems paying for their parking?!!!

    'Oh, it's awful. I can barely afford to go out in the Silver Wraith these days, Esher High Street is so expensive'.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Looks like Respect are dead, buried, and with a stake firmly through the heart in Bradford.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Worth noting that the BNP did better than this in 2009.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Vine plenty of flashing going on.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    Looks like Respect are dead, buried, and with a stake firmly through the heart in Bradford.

    I've got that one chalked up as not one of my better bets !
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    By this I mean better than UKIP today.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Socrates said:

    antifrank said:

    Socrates said:

    antifrank said:

    No, it was a stupid question which wilfully misunderstood the point. No doubt some of every Kipper's best friends are immigrants. That doesn't stop them being xenophobes.

    Your argument seems to be that if someone has some concerns about certain heights, even though they're fine with most of them, that must mean they have a fear of heights.
    But most Kippers have a problem with most immigrants.
    No, they have a problem with the scale of immigration. They do not dislike most immigrants on an individual basis.
    I agree with you that the distinction is important, but it can be a fine line. Most of the UKIP voters I know have particular experiences of immigration in their local community that inform their views - a particular shopping arcade and youth gangs spring to mind.

    From my perspective that's individual enough.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    This just appeared in my TL re London house prices. May have been posted, apols if so:

    http://www.theguardian.com/money/ng-interactive/2014/may/23/-sp-see-how-house-prices-have-risen
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Dyed Woolie Euro prediction update
    UKIP 30
    Tory/Labour tie 23
    Green 8
    Lib Dem 7
    AIFE 3
    Others 6
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Anyone have a copy of Plymouth's Labour leader's rant about supporting tolerance?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Tower Hamlets has gone to 2nd preferences, according to Labour List.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    IOS said:

    By this I mean better than UKIP today.

    How so? UKIP have now passed 150 net gains.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Lib Dems slaughtered

    Conservatives down by 190 seats

    Labour only limited gains and losing votes to UKIP in the north

    UKIP's projected national share down on last year

    Is any party doing well?

    A lose-lose situation or negaive sum game.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,591
    With the greatest of respect to Steve Fisher, projections like this show psephologists are no better at adapting to this change than the mainstream parties.

    Given the areas which has council elections yesterday, scaling up Labour and scaling down UKIP from their gross vote levels (considerably) in pretty laughable - I can only assume the assumption about standing everyone which is made for the 'three main Westminster parties' was not extended to UKIP.

    Sunday will confirm this and OGH's spinning of it as woefully off the mark.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    A good omen for UKIP ?

    John Cartwright ‏@JohnLoony 3m
    One of the counting staff counting a bundle and flicking over the top corner of the ballot papers: EPP 4 votes from 172 papers, AIFE only 3
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    UKIP have about 4.7%? of councillors.

    BNP managed 6.2% in 2009?
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    antifrank said:

    Socrates said:

    antifrank said:

    No, it was a stupid question which wilfully misunderstood the point. No doubt some of every Kipper's best friends are immigrants. That doesn't stop them being xenophobes.

    Your argument seems to be that if someone has some concerns about certain heights, even though they're fine with most of them, that must mean they have a fear of heights.
    But most Kippers have a problem with most immigrants.
    The problem is one of hypocrisy: they have a problem with other people's immigrants. They will bang on about them Poles, comin' over 'ere, but will happily employ Polish tradesmen and cleaners for cash on the cheap.

    Charitably one might call this doublethink.

    No great effort is required to imagine what the UK would be like if, as UKIP seems to want, all these people were to be sent back - with everything that entails in terms of commerce and culture. The whole of the UK would be like Telford.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2014
    I thought the whole point of the national projected share was that it adjusted for the sort of places that aren't voting in a particular year, so last year's projected share should have taken into account the fact that London wasn't voting whereas this year it was. So to say UKIP are down 6% because London was voting this year and UKIP are weak there doesn't seem to make sense.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Amusing tweet
    Zoe and Ped ‏@makebadges 9m

    #stockbridge #Edinburgh Google car is in the area. Get your #Yes signs in your window! #indyref
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    antifrank said:



    The Greens have apparently tallied 10% of the vote in the local seats where they stood. I still think they may surprise significantly on the upside in the European elections.

    It's possible, but Broxtowe is the sort of seat where I'd expect them to do fairly well if there was a surge to them. I did see 3 Green posters but met only a handful of Green voters. I think they'll do OK, much like last time or a shade better.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    UKIP gain four at. Newcastle under Lyme.

    Islington could return a full slate of Labour councillors. Labour have piled up votes in places where they are strong.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    IOS said:

    UKIP have about 4.7%? of councillors.

    BNP managed 6.2% in 2009?

    Surely the BNP did not have anything like 6.2% of the councillors. 6.2% of the vote, perhaps, but UKIP's well into double digits on that measure.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Cheers for that. An excellent and fascinating graphic.
    Carola said:

    This just appeared in my TL re London house prices. May have been posted, apols if so:

    http://www.theguardian.com/money/ng-interactive/2014/may/23/-sp-see-how-house-prices-have-risen

  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,591
    AndyJS said:

    I thought the whole point of the national projected share was that it adjusted for the sort of places that aren't voting in a particular year, so last year's projected share should have taken into account the fact that London wasn't voting whereas this year it was. So to say UKIP are down 6% because London was voting this year and UKIP are weak there doesn't seem to make sense.

    It's very hard to square 17% for UKIP with the 23% aggregate vote figure being tweeted by BBC sources. Very odd projection frankly. This is clearly not massively above average UKIP territory.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    IOS said:

    UKIP have about 4.7%? of councillors.

    BNP managed 6.2% in 2009?

    You might need to re-tune your algorithms.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    IOS said:

    UKIP have about 4.7%? of councillors.

    BNP managed 6.2% in 2009?

    The BNP only won 3 county council divisions that year. At their height they had 60 councillors in total. UKIP have c400.

  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Where is NEIL!

    I want to talk about a place called Southwalk and a gentleman called Simon Hughes.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Pulpstar said:

    A good omen for UKIP ?

    John Cartwright ‏@JohnLoony 3m
    One of the counting staff counting a bundle and flicking over the top corner of the ballot papers: EPP 4 votes from 172 papers, AIFE only 3

    Bristol East MP was cautioned or doing that sort of thing.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    edited May 2014
    Tower Hamlets Labour leader:

    Rachael Saunders ‏@RachaelSaunders 6m
    To everyone wanting Tower Hamlets results. Been here 10 hours and not one vote counted yet, just “verification” - unfolding and bundling

    Labour list

    17.49: Tower Hamlets mayoral race going to second preferences, as expected. This is a big improvement for Labour on last time, when Lutfur won on the first round. Come on Biggsy! – CP
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @IOS

    I'm here for you, dear. Are you returning to your prediction that he's not even going to stand next year?!
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    antifrank said:

    Socrates said:

    antifrank said:

    No, it was a stupid question which wilfully misunderstood the point. No doubt some of every Kipper's best friends are immigrants. That doesn't stop them being xenophobes.

    Your argument seems to be that if someone has some concerns about certain heights, even though they're fine with most of them, that must mean they have a fear of heights.
    But most Kippers have a problem with most immigrants.
    The problem is one of hypocrisy: they have a problem with other people's immigrants. They will bang on about them Poles, comin' over 'ere, but will happily employ Polish tradesmen and cleaners for cash on the cheap.

    Charitably one might call this doublethink.

    No great effort is required to imagine what the UK would be like if, as UKIP seems to want, all these people were to be sent back - with everything that entails in terms of commerce and culture. The whole of the UK would be like Telford.
    'they have a problem with other people's immigrants.'

    And other people's wives too?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Milton Keynes South. Important ward
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    IOS said:

    Where is NEIL!

    I want to talk about a place called Southwalk and a gentleman called Simon Hughes.

    Will it be any more coherent than your analysis of the BNP noted below ?

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    Horrid rumour that Labour may have won Barnet.

    He Who Must Not be Named has left the count, so clearly not good news for him.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I think the so-called experts are making fools of themselves by saying UKIP got 17% this year compared to 23% in 2013. If UKIP did indeed get a projected share of 17% this year, last year's projected share should have been around 15%.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Sean_F said:


    He Who Must Not be Named has left the count, so clearly not good news for him.

    He must be off to seek comfort in the arms of an Arsenal striker.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Neil

    Yes I am. Obviously I could get this one wrong but I am putting my cards on the table. If he does stand I reckon we have a 40% chance of beating him.

    Opinions? We gave the Libs a real kicking today,
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Mike

    Shapps is right on this. If they can't be bothered they should stand down as candidates.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    AndyJS said:

    I think the so-called experts are making fools of themselves by saying UKIP got 17% this year compared to 23% in 2013. If UKIP did indeed get a projected share of 17% this year, last year's projected share should have been around 15%.

    London is the hole in UKIP's bucket. Clearly it will have to be attended to.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    UKIP make 2 gains in Havering, Heaton.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    IOS said:


    Yes I am. Obviously I could get this one wrong

    It wouldnt be the first time, IOS. It would be very far from the first time.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    Apologies if already posted: the BBC analysis of the results projected to the whjole country at a GE:
    Labour: 322 seats, Conservatives: 255, Lib Dems: 45

    - Sky has a similar analysis. It's 4 seats short of an overall majority.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Good evening people. Bbc off air apparently while London's still counting?

    Can Londoners confirm this?
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    edited May 2014

    Apologies if already posted: the BBC analysis of the results projected to the whjole country at a GE:
    Labour: 322 seats, Conservatives: 255, Lib Dems: 45

    - Sky has a similar analysis. It's 4 seats short of an overall majority.

    Yeah!!!! 45 with the whole of the WWC against you = #winning

    CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FINAL TOMORROW
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Good evening, everyone.

    Mr. Palmer, that's the projection, but only if the General Election were tomorrow.

    The direction of travel is better for the blues than the reds, and rather super for UKIP.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,591
    AndyJS said:

    I think the so-called experts are making fools of themselves by saying UKIP got 17% this year compared to 23% in 2013. If UKIP did indeed get a projected share of 17% this year, last year's projected share should have been around 15%.

    Non of the people coming up with these funny numbers would lay you a quid that UKIP got under 30% in the euros - it's just a ridiculous projection.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Apologies if already posted: the BBC analysis of the results projected to the whjole country at a GE:
    Labour: 322 seats, Conservatives: 255, Lib Dems: 45

    - Sky has a similar analysis. It's 4 seats short of an overall majority.

    Just not good enough Nick, nowhere near good enough for Labour just under a year from the general election.

    The question for you and other Labour burghers is what are you going to do to turn this impending disaster around ?

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2014
    If UKIP get say 30% in the Euros, there's no way their national projected share should be less than 20% for the local elections because the majority of people would have voted the same way in both elections. Only a minority of people split their votes.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668

    Lib Dems slaughtered

    Conservatives down by 190 seats

    Labour only limited gains and losing votes to UKIP in the north

    UKIP's projected national share down on last year

    Is any party doing well?

    A lose-lose situation or negaive sum game.

    England now has a four party system. We are all going to have to get used to that and realise that the way things used to be is not how they are going to be from now on.

    Labour is four short of an overall majority on 31% of the vote. That's the new reality. It's a complete joke.

This discussion has been closed.