politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ukip sees 4 point drop in its projected national vote share
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Yes, and Balls spoke in straightforward English as well. He's a good communicator, much better than Ed M in my view. I think Labour made a big mistake not choosing him as leader out of the five candidates on offer (and I'm sure he agrees with me!)Richard_Tyndall said:I agree with you about Balls' comments. I can't see how a senior member of the party admitting they have not yet got it right can be considered 'ferrets in a sack'.
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They stood in a couple of Exeter wards, and received respectable if unspectacular results.Bond_James_Bond said:What news of AIFE? I assume like UKIP they stood in the locals?
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Anti-UKIP voters should vote for parties that can gain win seats in place of UKIP. Voting for AIFE simply lowers the percentage share that UKIP requires to win, in any region.Bond_James_Bond said:
And won't St. Nigel be hopping mad when he sees how many votes the People's Front of Judaea lost to the Judaean People's Front?Richard_Tyndall said:
He is just upset because he voted for BNP-lite.Stuart_Dickson said:
I've seen a lot of frothers here at PB, but I think that you have just broken the record with that post.Bond_James_Bond said:
No, UKIP are everybody's enemy. They are not some cheery little insurgency - they are vicious, intolerant, minority-hating loonies. The "independence" tag is just a lie. They are a sboʍ-out party who given the opportunity would start repatriating and expropriating. They are just the BNP in blazers.Stuart_Dickson said:@Bond_James_Bond - "To the benefit of Farage's fascist party, unfortunately."
A disgraceful remark. You and your type are a liability to the Conservative Party.
UKIP are your opponents, not your enemy.
No. I voted for them to enrage kippers; seems to be working. Nobody can explain to me what MEPs do, or what difference having MEPs of this rather than that party actually makes. So it is an opportunity for frivolity. AIFE appears to be the frivolous work a fairly typically frivolous kipper who is enraged at losing his place at the trough, so he starts a spoiler party. I'm helping him to spoil things, particularly for kippers.Richard_Tyndall said:Can we assume that since you voted for AIFE you are also a closet racist?
Even if it's one he'll still be angry. He's an angry sort of chap.
On what specific issues does UKIP disagree with AIFE Richard? ITYF it's none. They're both identically disgusting.
I voted Labour in Brent East in 2005. I can't stand Labour, but I figured if I could help keep it marginal by doing so, the two leftist envy parties would have fewer resources to contest other marginals where the outcome did matter.
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There is certainly not one that is known to the party or they would be expelled since it is in the party rules that no former member of the BNP can be a member of the party.Bond_James_Bond said:
So there is not one single ex-BNP member in UKIP? Yeah, right.Socrates said:
Well UKIP believes that former BNP members should not be allowed to join the party, while AIFE welcomes them with open arms.Bond_James_Bond said:On what specific issues does UKIP disagree with AIFE Richard? ITYF it's none. They're both identically disgusting.
The Popular Front of Judea.
Yet more desperate spinning from the man who voted 'racist'.
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I voted Green in the Euros hoping to push the Lib Dems to 5th in England.antifrank said:
The Greens have apparently tallied 10% of the vote in the local seats where they stood. I still think they may surprise significantly on the upside in the European elections.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, I agree with that. In fact I posted a comment late last night speculating that, because of split-ticket votes and higher Euro election enthusiasm helping them in areas where there are not locals, UKIP might do relatively less well in the locals but clean up in the Euros. I wouldn't be surprised if the Greens also do relatively well in the Euros, at the expense of the LibDems and Labour. So I'm still predicting UKIP/Lab/Con/Green/LD as the order. We shall see!HurstLlama said:Absolutely awful, Mr. Navabi, poor for everyone. However, I think one party might be celebrating next Monday. I think UKIP are going to exceed expectations in the Euros.
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Ha ha ha!!antifrank said:
To finish second in 17 out of 19 seats suggests exceptionally poor targeting.isam said:Matthew Goodwin @GoodwinMJ 3m
In Labour-run Wolverhampton #UKIP retain their seat and finished 2nd in 17 out of 19 other local contests
I forgot, "Its always bad for UKIP on PB!!!!"0 -
@IanDunt: Even political journalists, who are paid to pay attention, struggle to summarise what Labour's campaign was about http://t.co/Fwwjqmrhkl0
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Not according to Survation.Richard_Nabavi said:
I wouldn't expect so, because if (as we all assume) UKIP got a much larger share in the Euros than that implied by the locals, that increase probably came disproportionately from the Tories.felix said:If the vote share for the locals is as close as it seems does this mean the chance of a Labour second place could be in doubt for the euros?
UKIP EU Parliament voters split for the locals to:
Con 7.9%, Lab 9.6%, LD 13.1%, UKIP 59.2%
(table 14, p.17)
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/May-voting-poll-Mirror-tables.pdf0 -
Is there any person of foreign origin you've met in the UK you dislike antifrank? If so, is it reasonable to say "antifrank dislikes immigrants"?antifrank said:You don't have to hate all immigrants to hate some or indeed many immigrants. Your party leader knows the difference.
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Tragedy: The BNP have held their only defending seat by 6 votes!
http://www.pendle.gov.uk/site/custom_scripts/viewelection.php?pollid=600 -
Haha
tom jamieson @jamiesont 15m
UKIP calling us Londoners a cultured elite as ridiculous as saying Glyndebourne's production of Der Rosenkavalier lacks emotional resonance.0 -
This, from Andrew Sparrow on the Guardian live blog, is devastating.
The Tories have helpfully sent me a list of Labour figures criticising the leadership today...
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If Labour want to sent me quotes from Conservative MPs criticising David Cameron, or CCHQ, I would be more than happy to post those too. But they haven't. In fact, I've had one email from them all day. Frankly, their press operation has been rather useless.0 -
Even I agree with you (yes I know that is unheard of :-) ). I have considerable liking for Balls although I would not vote for him in a million years because of his policies. He wouod have been a far better leader for Labour than Ed MilibandRichard_Nabavi said:
Yes, and Balls spoke in straightforward English as well. He's a good communicator, much better than Ed M in my view. I think Labour made a big mistake not choosing him as leader out of the five candidates on offer (and I'm sure he agrees with me!)Richard_Tyndall said:I agree with you about Balls' comments. I can't see how a senior member of the party admitting they have not yet got it right can be considered 'ferrets in a sack'.
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Hmm, interesting, I hadn't seen that. If so, maybe Labour will be pushed into third place. That would be fun.anotherDave said:Not according to Survation.
UKIP EU Parliament voters split for the locals to:
Con 7.9%, Lab 9.6%, LD 13.1%, UKIP 59.2%
(table 14, p.17)
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/May-voting-poll-Mirror-tables.pdf
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A valid criticism. UKIP's huge vote in Sutton won us no seats, and a similarly huge vote in Havering may result in a string of second places.antifrank said:
To finish second in 17 out of 19 seats suggests exceptionally poor targeting.isam said:Matthew Goodwin @GoodwinMJ 3m
In Labour-run Wolverhampton #UKIP retain their seat and finished 2nd in 17 out of 19 other local contests
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Hamilton is all that is bad about UKIP, and more.Quincel said:Neil Hamilton on BBC News 24, Dimbleby cheekily asks him if he'll be the UKIP candidate for Tatton next year.
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Sajid Javid:
"These people are angry about politics, about issues in our country. There is a lot of frustration there and the way we have to respond to that is turn that anger into answers and look at the issues that are causing most concern.
I think those are around the economy. It is recovering but is fragile still, people are naturally concerned about that. It is about Europe, it is about immigration and it is probably about welfare reform as well.
We have a plan as a government on all these issues. I think this shows we need to redouble our efforts further, see what else we can do. We have to do a better job of communicating that as well."
I have to say, "having a plan", "redoubling our efforts" and "doing a better job of communicating" sound remarkably like "we're not going to change a damn thing".0 -
I judge people individually. So, for example, I would be unperturbed by Romanians moving in next door to me.Socrates said:
Is there any person of foreign origin you've met in the UK you dislike antifrank? If so, is it reasonable to say "antifrank dislikes immigrants"?antifrank said:You don't have to hate all immigrants to hate some or indeed many immigrants. Your party leader knows the difference.
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In fairness, UKIP mostly hasn't yet got the wealth of historical canvass data that the others have.0
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Only if you imagine that it actually matters who wins. So far as I can tell, it does not matter wins the euros one single jot. They are elections wholly without point.Sean_F said:
Anti-UKIP voters should vote for parties that can gain win seats in place of UKIP. Voting for AIFE simply lowers the percentage share that UKIP requires to win, in any region.Bond_James_Bond said:
And won't St. Nigel be hopping mad when he sees how many votes the People's Front of Judaea lost to the Judaean People's Front?Richard_Tyndall said:
He is just upset because he voted for BNP-lite.Stuart_Dickson said:
I've seen a lot of frothers here at PB, but I think that you have just broken the record with that post.Bond_James_Bond said:
No, UKIP are everybody's enemy. They are not some cheery little insurgency - they are vicious, intolerant, minority-hating loonies. The "independence" tag is just a lie. They are a sboʍ-out party who given the opportunity would start repatriating and expropriating. They are just the BNP in blazers.Stuart_Dickson said:@Bond_James_Bond - "To the benefit of Farage's fascist party, unfortunately."
A disgraceful remark. You and your type are a liability to the Conservative Party.
UKIP are your opponents, not your enemy.
No. I voted for them to enrage kippers; seems to be working. Nobody can explain to me what MEPs do, or what difference having MEPs of this rather than that party actually makes. So it is an opportunity for frivolity. AIFE appears to be the frivolous work a fairly typically frivolous kipper who is enraged at losing his place at the trough, so he starts a spoiler party. I'm helping him to spoil things, particularly for kippers.Richard_Tyndall said:Can we assume that since you voted for AIFE you are also a closet racist?
Even if it's one he'll still be angry. He's an angry sort of chap.
On what specific issues does UKIP disagree with AIFE Richard? ITYF it's none. They're both identically disgusting.
I voted Labour in Brent East in 2005. I can't stand Labour, but I figured if I could help keep it marginal by doing so, the two leftist envy parties would have fewer resources to contest other marginals where the outcome did matter.
They're a riskless, costless opportunity to royally piss off people who deserve it.0 -
That wasn't what I asked you.antifrank said:
I judge people individually. So, for example, I would be unperturbed by Romanians moving in next door to me.Socrates said:
Is there any person of foreign origin you've met in the UK you dislike antifrank? If so, is it reasonable to say "antifrank dislikes immigrants"?antifrank said:You don't have to hate all immigrants to hate some or indeed many immigrants. Your party leader knows the difference.
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Like you have to immigrants by voting for the BNP-lite.Bond_James_Bond said:
Only if you imagine that it actually matters who wins. So far as I can tell, it does not matter wins the euros one single jot. They are elections wholly without point.Sean_F said:
Anti-UKIP voters should vote for parties that can gain win seats in place of UKIP. Voting for AIFE simply lowers the percentage share that UKIP requires to win, in any region.Bond_James_Bond said:
And won't St. Nigel be hopping mad when he sees how many votes the People's Front of Judaea lost to the Judaean People's Front?Richard_Tyndall said:
He is just upset because he voted for BNP-lite.Stuart_Dickson said:
I've seen a lot of frothers here at PB, but I think that you have just broken the record with that post.Bond_James_Bond said:
No, UKIP are everybody's enemy. They are not some cheery little insurgency - they are vicious, intolerant, minority-hating loonies. The "independence" tag is just a lie. They are a sboʍ-out party who given the opportunity would start repatriating and expropriating. They are just the BNP in blazers.Stuart_Dickson said:@Bond_James_Bond - "To the benefit of Farage's fascist party, unfortunately."
A disgraceful remark. You and your type are a liability to the Conservative Party.
UKIP are your opponents, not your enemy.
No. I voted for them to enrage kippers; seems to be working. Nobody can explain to me what MEPs do, or what difference having MEPs of this rather than that party actually makes. So it is an opportunity for frivolity. AIFE appears to be the frivolous work a fairly typically frivolous kipper who is enraged at losing his place at the trough, so he starts a spoiler party. I'm helping him to spoil things, particularly for kippers.Richard_Tyndall said:Can we assume that since you voted for AIFE you are also a closet racist?
Even if it's one he'll still be angry. He's an angry sort of chap.
On what specific issues does UKIP disagree with AIFE Richard? ITYF it's none. They're both identically disgusting.
I voted Labour in Brent East in 2005. I can't stand Labour, but I figured if I could help keep it marginal by doing so, the two leftist envy parties would have fewer resources to contest other marginals where the outcome did matter.
They're a riskless, costless opportunity to royally piss off people who deserve it.0 -
Sean, would it be fair to say that Ukip probably face the same GE problem that the SDP did in 1983 - polling well but failing to hit the target in any seat not previously held.Sean_F said:
A valid criticism. UKIP's huge vote in Sutton won us no seats, and a similarly huge vote in Havering may result in a string of second places.antifrank said:
To finish second in 17 out of 19 seats suggests exceptionally poor targeting.isam said:Matthew Goodwin @GoodwinMJ 3m
In Labour-run Wolverhampton #UKIP retain their seat and finished 2nd in 17 out of 19 other local contests
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Amazingly, the Democrats are leading for the Georgia Senate seat, despite the GOP rejecting the Tea Party nut cases:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2014/georgia/election_2014_georgia_senate0 -
Let the leadership games commence...
@robindbrant: fair to say @YvetteCooperMP failed to come close to a ringing endorsement of her leader just then on BBC r4 PM prog0 -
This has reminded me that there probably is a reason the AIFE/UKIP/BNP/NO2EU nutters would want to be in local government.antifrank said:
I judge people individually. So, for example, I would be unperturbed by Romanians moving in next door to me.Socrates said:
Is there any person of foreign origin you've met in the UK you dislike antifrank? If so, is it reasonable to say "antifrank dislikes immigrants"?antifrank said:You don't have to hate all immigrants to hate some or indeed many immigrants. Your party leader knows the difference.
They could force all the local schools to study Dracula - a book about a bloodsucking murderous Romanian immigrant that's as topical today as when it was written. And just as accurate.
Them Romanian vampires, comin' over 'ere, suckin' our Bri'ish blood....0 -
Did the witches vote for him ?Quincel said:Tragedy: The BNP have held their only defending seat by 6 votes!
http://www.pendle.gov.uk/site/custom_scripts/viewelection.php?pollid=600 -
No, wait, I got that wrong.OblitusSumMe said:
They stood in a couple of Exeter wards, and received respectable if unspectacular results.Bond_James_Bond said:What news of AIFE? I assume like UKIP they stood in the locals?
Their results were okay in wards where UKIP did not also stand a candidate, eg Heavitree, where they received [121 votes] 6% of the vote and didn't come last.
In a ward where they stood against a UKIP candidate, eg Whipton Barton, their result was pathetic, taking [28 votes] 1.2% of the vote, on a par with TUSC.
Worth noting that in council and Parliamentary elections the ballot papers are ordered alphabetically by the candidates surname, so AIFE will not have benefited from their contrived name.0 -
Maybe you should have voted Britain First. They seem to be closer to your political views than AIFE.Bond_James_Bond said:
This has reminded me that there probably is a reason the AIFE/UKIP/BNP/NO2EU nutters would want to be in local government.antifrank said:
I judge people individually. So, for example, I would be unperturbed by Romanians moving in next door to me.Socrates said:
Is there any person of foreign origin you've met in the UK you dislike antifrank? If so, is it reasonable to say "antifrank dislikes immigrants"?antifrank said:You don't have to hate all immigrants to hate some or indeed many immigrants. Your party leader knows the difference.
They could force all the local schools to study Dracula - a book about a bloodsucking murderous Romanian immigrant that's as topical today as when it was written. And just as accurate.
Them Romanian vampires, comin' over 'ere, suckin' our Bri'ish blood....
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There were four Scottish by-elections held on Thursday that counted today. Labour held 2 in Fife (UKIP polled quite well, ahead of the Tories although the Tory vote was marginally up). An independent won a previously Tory held seat in the Borders (although Tory, Lib Dem and I think SNP vote share all increased).
And remarkably Labour picked up a seat in Argyll & Bute from a ward which I believe had returned 3 SNP councillors (out of a possible 4) previously. The Lib Dems and Tories also increased vote share in this ward.0 -
It could be.JackW said:
Sean, would it be fair to say that Ukip probably face the same GE problem that the SDP did in 1983 - polling well but failing to hit the target in any seat not previously held.Sean_F said:
A valid criticism. UKIP's huge vote in Sutton won us no seats, and a similarly huge vote in Havering may result in a string of second places.antifrank said:
To finish second in 17 out of 19 seats suggests exceptionally poor targeting.isam said:Matthew Goodwin @GoodwinMJ 3m
In Labour-run Wolverhampton #UKIP retain their seat and finished 2nd in 17 out of 19 other local contests
Totteridge has now begun it's count.
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I've heard the experts explaining the reasoning behind UKIP being lower this year and it doesn't sound very convincing to me.0
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Trafford comparatively weak UKIP presence?0
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No, it was a stupid question which wilfully misunderstood the point. No doubt some of every Kipper's best friends are immigrants. That doesn't stop them being xenophobes.Socrates said:
That wasn't what I asked you.antifrank said:
I judge people individually. So, for example, I would be unperturbed by Romanians moving in next door to me.Socrates said:
Is there any person of foreign origin you've met in the UK you dislike antifrank? If so, is it reasonable to say "antifrank dislikes immigrants"?antifrank said:You don't have to hate all immigrants to hate some or indeed many immigrants. Your party leader knows the difference.
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He's so committed to the BNP he appears to have been born for the role: check out his initials.Pulpstar said:
Did the witches vote for him ?Quincel said:Tragedy: The BNP have held their only defending seat by 6 votes!
http://www.pendle.gov.uk/site/custom_scripts/viewelection.php?pollid=600 -
I wonder what would have happened if they'd used AV.Pulpstar said:
Did the witches vote for him ?Quincel said:Tragedy: The BNP have held their only defending seat by 6 votes!
http://www.pendle.gov.uk/site/custom_scripts/viewelection.php?pollid=60
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Socrates said:
Amazingly, the Democrats are leading for the Georgia Senate seat, despite the GOP rejecting the Tea Party nut cases:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2014/georgia/election_2014_georgia_senate
As you remark, Socco, amazing. But then it is Rasmussen.
Have they concluded yet the post-mortem on their 2012 Presidential Elections polling?
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Your argument seems to be that if someone has some concerns about certain heights, even though they're fine with most of them, that must mean they have a fear of heights.antifrank said:No, it was a stupid question which wilfully misunderstood the point. No doubt some of every Kipper's best friends are immigrants. That doesn't stop them being xenophobes.
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The second place candidate, Conservative Neil McGowan polled 333.
2nd x 333 = 666, the BNP candidate's initials are BNP. All near Shit Hill in Pendle...
Spooky !0 -
People have been stripping their votes...0
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But most Kippers have a problem with most immigrants.Socrates said:
Your argument seems to be that if someone has some concerns about certain heights, even though they're fine with most of them, that must mean they have a fear of heights.antifrank said:No, it was a stupid question which wilfully misunderstood the point. No doubt some of every Kipper's best friends are immigrants. That doesn't stop them being xenophobes.
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One Tory success I can live with.
BBC.
Former Sun newspaper editor Kelvin MacKenzie narrowly failed to win election to Elmbridge Borough Council.
Mr MacKenzie, standing as an Independent in St George's Hill ward, won 770 votes but Conservative Simon Foale saw him off with 811.
When he announced he would stand in March Mr MacKenzie said he wanted lower parking charges for locals and to relocate the council HQ to a cheaper area of the borough.0 -
Outside of London, UKIP seems likely to win c.7% of the seats, similar to last year. That implies either a similar vote share, or better targeting.AndyJS said:I've heard the experts explaining the reasoning behind UKIP being lower this year and it doesn't sound very convincing to me.
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Brogan no one will remove Miliband or Cameron.
Forgets that Labor in Australia ditched Gillard in order to minimise losses.It shouldn't be completely ruled out.0 -
Told everyone they were getting to excited last night. This is a good result for UKIP but it's not mega....0
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How would you know that?antifrank said:
But most Kippers have a problem with most immigrants.Socrates said:
Your argument seems to be that if someone has some concerns about certain heights, even though they're fine with most of them, that must mean they have a fear of heights.antifrank said:No, it was a stupid question which wilfully misunderstood the point. No doubt some of every Kipper's best friends are immigrants. That doesn't stop them being xenophobes.
The Ukip supporters on here dont slag off immigrants. How many do you know in real life?0 -
No, they have a problem with the scale of immigration. They do not dislike most immigrants on an individual basis.antifrank said:
But most Kippers have a problem with most immigrants.Socrates said:
Your argument seems to be that if someone has some concerns about certain heights, even though they're fine with most of them, that must mean they have a fear of heights.antifrank said:No, it was a stupid question which wilfully misunderstood the point. No doubt some of every Kipper's best friends are immigrants. That doesn't stop them being xenophobes.
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'lower parking charges for locals'old_labour said:One Tory success I can live with.
BBC.
Former Sun newspaper editor Kelvin MacKenzie narrowly failed to win election to Elmbridge Borough Council.
Mr MacKenzie, standing as an Independent in St George's Hill ward, won 770 votes but Conservative Simon Foale saw him off with 811.
When he announced he would stand in March Mr MacKenzie said he wanted lower parking charges for locals and to relocate the council HQ to a cheaper area of the borough.
Eh? Who in St Georges Hill has problems paying for their parking?!!!
'Oh, it's awful. I can barely afford to go out in the Silver Wraith these days, Esher High Street is so expensive'.0 -
Looks like Respect are dead, buried, and with a stake firmly through the heart in Bradford.0
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Worth noting that the BNP did better than this in 2009.0
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Vine plenty of flashing going on.0
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I've got that one chalked up as not one of my better bets !Richard_Nabavi said:Looks like Respect are dead, buried, and with a stake firmly through the heart in Bradford.
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By this I mean better than UKIP today.0
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I agree with you that the distinction is important, but it can be a fine line. Most of the UKIP voters I know have particular experiences of immigration in their local community that inform their views - a particular shopping arcade and youth gangs spring to mind.Socrates said:
No, they have a problem with the scale of immigration. They do not dislike most immigrants on an individual basis.antifrank said:
But most Kippers have a problem with most immigrants.Socrates said:
Your argument seems to be that if someone has some concerns about certain heights, even though they're fine with most of them, that must mean they have a fear of heights.antifrank said:No, it was a stupid question which wilfully misunderstood the point. No doubt some of every Kipper's best friends are immigrants. That doesn't stop them being xenophobes.
From my perspective that's individual enough.0 -
This just appeared in my TL re London house prices. May have been posted, apols if so:
http://www.theguardian.com/money/ng-interactive/2014/may/23/-sp-see-how-house-prices-have-risen0 -
Dyed Woolie Euro prediction update
UKIP 30
Tory/Labour tie 23
Green 8
Lib Dem 7
AIFE 3
Others 6
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Anyone have a copy of Plymouth's Labour leader's rant about supporting tolerance?0
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Tower Hamlets has gone to 2nd preferences, according to Labour List.
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Lib Dems slaughtered
Conservatives down by 190 seats
Labour only limited gains and losing votes to UKIP in the north
UKIP's projected national share down on last year
Is any party doing well?
A lose-lose situation or negaive sum game.0 -
With the greatest of respect to Steve Fisher, projections like this show psephologists are no better at adapting to this change than the mainstream parties.
Given the areas which has council elections yesterday, scaling up Labour and scaling down UKIP from their gross vote levels (considerably) in pretty laughable - I can only assume the assumption about standing everyone which is made for the 'three main Westminster parties' was not extended to UKIP.
Sunday will confirm this and OGH's spinning of it as woefully off the mark.0 -
A good omen for UKIP ?
John Cartwright @JohnLoony 3m
One of the counting staff counting a bundle and flicking over the top corner of the ballot papers: EPP 4 votes from 172 papers, AIFE only 30 -
UKIP have about 4.7%? of councillors.
BNP managed 6.2% in 2009?0 -
The problem is one of hypocrisy: they have a problem with other people's immigrants. They will bang on about them Poles, comin' over 'ere, but will happily employ Polish tradesmen and cleaners for cash on the cheap.antifrank said:
But most Kippers have a problem with most immigrants.Socrates said:
Your argument seems to be that if someone has some concerns about certain heights, even though they're fine with most of them, that must mean they have a fear of heights.antifrank said:No, it was a stupid question which wilfully misunderstood the point. No doubt some of every Kipper's best friends are immigrants. That doesn't stop them being xenophobes.
Charitably one might call this doublethink.
No great effort is required to imagine what the UK would be like if, as UKIP seems to want, all these people were to be sent back - with everything that entails in terms of commerce and culture. The whole of the UK would be like Telford.
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I thought the whole point of the national projected share was that it adjusted for the sort of places that aren't voting in a particular year, so last year's projected share should have taken into account the fact that London wasn't voting whereas this year it was. So to say UKIP are down 6% because London was voting this year and UKIP are weak there doesn't seem to make sense.0
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Amusing tweet
Zoe and Ped @makebadges 9m
#stockbridge #Edinburgh Google car is in the area. Get your #Yes signs in your window! #indyref0 -
It's possible, but Broxtowe is the sort of seat where I'd expect them to do fairly well if there was a surge to them. I did see 3 Green posters but met only a handful of Green voters. I think they'll do OK, much like last time or a shade better.antifrank said:
The Greens have apparently tallied 10% of the vote in the local seats where they stood. I still think they may surprise significantly on the upside in the European elections.
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UKIP gain four at. Newcastle under Lyme.
Islington could return a full slate of Labour councillors. Labour have piled up votes in places where they are strong.0 -
Cheers for that. An excellent and fascinating graphic.Carola said:
This just appeared in my TL re London house prices. May have been posted, apols if so:
http://www.theguardian.com/money/ng-interactive/2014/may/23/-sp-see-how-house-prices-have-risen0 -
It's very hard to square 17% for UKIP with the 23% aggregate vote figure being tweeted by BBC sources. Very odd projection frankly. This is clearly not massively above average UKIP territory.AndyJS said:I thought the whole point of the national projected share was that it adjusted for the sort of places that aren't voting in a particular year, so last year's projected share should have taken into account the fact that London wasn't voting whereas this year it was. So to say UKIP are down 6% because London was voting this year and UKIP are weak there doesn't seem to make sense.
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You might need to re-tune your algorithms.IOS said:UKIP have about 4.7%? of councillors.
BNP managed 6.2% in 2009?0 -
Where is NEIL!
I want to talk about a place called Southwalk and a gentleman called Simon Hughes.0 -
Bristol East MP was cautioned or doing that sort of thing.Pulpstar said:A good omen for UKIP ?
John Cartwright @JohnLoony 3m
One of the counting staff counting a bundle and flicking over the top corner of the ballot papers: EPP 4 votes from 172 papers, AIFE only 3
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Tower Hamlets Labour leader:
Rachael Saunders @RachaelSaunders 6m
To everyone wanting Tower Hamlets results. Been here 10 hours and not one vote counted yet, just “verification” - unfolding and bundling
Labour list
17.49: Tower Hamlets mayoral race going to second preferences, as expected. This is a big improvement for Labour on last time, when Lutfur won on the first round. Come on Biggsy! – CP0 -
'they have a problem with other people's immigrants.'Bond_James_Bond said:
The problem is one of hypocrisy: they have a problem with other people's immigrants. They will bang on about them Poles, comin' over 'ere, but will happily employ Polish tradesmen and cleaners for cash on the cheap.antifrank said:
But most Kippers have a problem with most immigrants.Socrates said:
Your argument seems to be that if someone has some concerns about certain heights, even though they're fine with most of them, that must mean they have a fear of heights.antifrank said:No, it was a stupid question which wilfully misunderstood the point. No doubt some of every Kipper's best friends are immigrants. That doesn't stop them being xenophobes.
Charitably one might call this doublethink.
No great effort is required to imagine what the UK would be like if, as UKIP seems to want, all these people were to be sent back - with everything that entails in terms of commerce and culture. The whole of the UK would be like Telford.
And other people's wives too?0 -
Milton Keynes South. Important ward0
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Horrid rumour that Labour may have won Barnet.
He Who Must Not be Named has left the count, so clearly not good news for him.0 -
I think the so-called experts are making fools of themselves by saying UKIP got 17% this year compared to 23% in 2013. If UKIP did indeed get a projected share of 17% this year, last year's projected share should have been around 15%.0
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"Shapps can f**k off"
Shapps causes storm among Tory candidates:
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/05/candidate-fury-at-cchq-campaign-demands/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=candidate-fury-at-cchq-campaign-demands0 -
Neil
Yes I am. Obviously I could get this one wrong but I am putting my cards on the table. If he does stand I reckon we have a 40% chance of beating him.
Opinions? We gave the Libs a real kicking today,0 -
Mike
Shapps is right on this. If they can't be bothered they should stand down as candidates.0 -
London is the hole in UKIP's bucket. Clearly it will have to be attended to.AndyJS said:I think the so-called experts are making fools of themselves by saying UKIP got 17% this year compared to 23% in 2013. If UKIP did indeed get a projected share of 17% this year, last year's projected share should have been around 15%.
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UKIP make 2 gains in Havering, Heaton.0
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Apologies if already posted: the BBC analysis of the results projected to the whjole country at a GE:
Labour: 322 seats, Conservatives: 255, Lib Dems: 45
- Sky has a similar analysis. It's 4 seats short of an overall majority.0 -
Good evening people. Bbc off air apparently while London's still counting?
Can Londoners confirm this?0 -
Yeah!!!! 45 with the whole of the WWC against you = #winningNickPalmer said:Apologies if already posted: the BBC analysis of the results projected to the whjole country at a GE:
Labour: 322 seats, Conservatives: 255, Lib Dems: 45
- Sky has a similar analysis. It's 4 seats short of an overall majority.
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FINAL TOMORROW0 -
Good evening, everyone.
Mr. Palmer, that's the projection, but only if the General Election were tomorrow.
The direction of travel is better for the blues than the reds, and rather super for UKIP.0 -
Non of the people coming up with these funny numbers would lay you a quid that UKIP got under 30% in the euros - it's just a ridiculous projection.AndyJS said:I think the so-called experts are making fools of themselves by saying UKIP got 17% this year compared to 23% in 2013. If UKIP did indeed get a projected share of 17% this year, last year's projected share should have been around 15%.
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Just not good enough Nick, nowhere near good enough for Labour just under a year from the general election.NickPalmer said:Apologies if already posted: the BBC analysis of the results projected to the whjole country at a GE:
Labour: 322 seats, Conservatives: 255, Lib Dems: 45
- Sky has a similar analysis. It's 4 seats short of an overall majority.
The question for you and other Labour burghers is what are you going to do to turn this impending disaster around ?
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If UKIP get say 30% in the Euros, there's no way their national projected share should be less than 20% for the local elections because the majority of people would have voted the same way in both elections. Only a minority of people split their votes.0
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England now has a four party system. We are all going to have to get used to that and realise that the way things used to be is not how they are going to be from now on.David_Evershed said:Lib Dems slaughtered
Conservatives down by 190 seats
Labour only limited gains and losing votes to UKIP in the north
UKIP's projected national share down on last year
Is any party doing well?
A lose-lose situation or negaive sum game.
Labour is four short of an overall majority on 31% of the vote. That's the new reality. It's a complete joke.
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