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rcs1000 said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1252170297672859649

That doesn't really sound like much of a scandal.

state_go_away said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Black_Rook said:

Andy_JS said:

This is disappointing. I would have thought most people are exercising more than before.

"The public has been snacking more in lockdown and, despite increases in sales of bikes and exercise equipment, overall activity levels appear to have dropped compared to before the pandemic"

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-07-24/experts-warn-over-huge-risk-of-covid-death-in-obese-people-as-gyms-reopen

But not at all surprising. There will have been a lot of boredom and anxiety eating going on during this period, and the proportion of gym users who've taken up outdoor exercise will be well short of 100%, despite the fact that we've had a lot of good weather.

This period of enforced inactivity - the prolonged closure of leisure facilities, and prohibition of sports - will likely have undone many years of effort to get the population more active, just as many people have also developed serious chocolate biscuit fixations. Alas, good habits are often as easy to lose as bad habits are hard to give up.

I've been doing a decent amount of exercise. Ran so many daily 5ks my knee started to protest. Got back into biking which I've pushed further and further - rode from Thornaby just south of the Tees to Newcastle yesterday. Monster ride. Epic.

But I am depressed and working from home. Which makes snacky goodness not just possible but essential. A weekly beer night. With some midweek wee dram action. OK so I've finally decided that self medication isn't working and need professional attention. But weight management isn't exactly a priority at the moment.

Sympathies and although I do respect your earnest endeavours to comply with guidance , if it is making you depressed and you want to do something to make you happier I would just do it and sod the covid -19 overregulations

LadyG said:

isam said:

kinabalu said:

WhisperingOracle said:

isam said:

.

WhisperingOracle said:

isam said:

RIP Peter Green

So sad. I loved Peter. This week I have been trying to learn Oh Well and Black Magic Woman on the guitar.

I think had you offered him his last twenty five years back in the late 70s/early 80s he wouldn't have believed it possible. It could have been a lot, lot worse.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6GB_c6d_2U

My wife's family knew Peter Green's younger relatives, apparently. One of that generation of postwar East End Jewish boys drawn to the 'sixties creative industries ; Marc Bolan was another.

An incredibly sad story. The Man of the World documentary by the BBC is good. I think it is on iplayer, but no doubt will be shown again now he has sadly passed away. Spent his final years in Leigh-on-Sea I believe

https://web.musicaficionado.com/main/article/Peter_Green_Article

Thanks for this. There are incredible similarities with Syd Barrett's story here ; those who were the most sensitive souls, and had a period of having their drinks spiked with LSD, often seem to have suffered the most negative consequences of hallucinogens. Both he and Barrett seem to have degenerated almost to drifters after these experiences, which they didn't plan or initiate.

More confident personalities of the era, acting with their own sense of agency, and most importantly not so enormously frightened and unsettled by the experience, seemed to have been the ones sometimes deriving more benefit from it ; and also generally seemed to have returned to the drug only rarely, if at all, afterwards.

Yes strikingly similar stories.

And in both cases following the demise of the talented but vulnerable founding member the bands went on to enormous commercial success.

I used to be a big fan of early Floyd ft Syd, Piper at the Gates of Dawn, but now it sounds like absolute nonsense. Peter Green, in contrast, was a serious musician, and his music with Fleetwood Mac still sounds fantastic today

Barrett wrote some interesting songs, the very best of them - from his solo album - have a poetically uncanny quality.

He's still a bit of a folk hero to me, maybe because of his madness.

But the band was definitely and hugely improved by his leaving, and Gilmour joining. Only that band could have made Dark Side of the Moon and Wish You Were Here.

isam said:

Mexicanpete said:

justin124 said:

Mexicanpete said:

justin124 said:

Mexicanpete said:

CatMan said:

Mexicanpete said:

ydoethur said:

Mexicanpete said:

I think you overstate Labour's unpopularity in the Bay. That is not to say a rainbow coalition of non-Labour AMs will not form the next Government.

I don’t know. My impression is their support is patchy. I think Labour are in advanced and possibly terminal decay in the north outside Bangor, while in Dyfed-Powys they’ve been weak for years.

But I would expect a Labour-Plaid coalition next year if only because I cannot see any other route to 30 other than Tory majority (which ain’t happening).

But I can see Tories - most seats in 2021 (albeit it’s not the likeliest outcome) and taking power in 2025-26.

The Johnson factor may make Conservatives most seats next year.

I know, I know, I live in a parallel universe where Johnson appears to be a catastrophe. But he is working class hero catnip to former Labour blue collar voters.

I hate to get all HYFUD, but the last poll that was taken doesn't seem to show that

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1271153920941928451?s=20

Good point. My anecdotal antenna makes me nervous that the Conservatives are still in the ascent as your poll suggests. I just don't see where the improvement for Labour comes from.

Why would Labour under Starmer do worse in Wales than Corbyn in 2019 - or even 2017? Particularly in the context of a swing to Labour across GB of circa 4%! Never seen it happen there before.

Brexit and latent racism.

But those are not new factors compared with 2019 - and by 2024 Brexit is likely to be a peripheral issue.

I hope you are right.

People who didn't want Brexit seem to say it wont be an issue for Starmer to have been the Brexit blocker he was, but it will be terrible for Boris who will have to own the consequences etc... Aren't they just talking their book?

RochdalePioneers said:

state_go_away said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Black_Rook said:

Andy_JS said:

This is disappointing. I would have thought most people are exercising more than before.

"The public has been snacking more in lockdown and, despite increases in sales of bikes and exercise equipment, overall activity levels appear to have dropped compared to before the pandemic"

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-07-24/experts-warn-over-huge-risk-of-covid-death-in-obese-people-as-gyms-reopen

But not at all surprising. There will have been a lot of boredom and anxiety eating going on during this period, and the proportion of gym users who've taken up outdoor exercise will be well short of 100%, despite the fact that we've had a lot of good weather.

This period of enforced inactivity - the prolonged closure of leisure facilities, and prohibition of sports - will likely have undone many years of effort to get the population more active, just as many people have also developed serious chocolate biscuit fixations. Alas, good habits are often as easy to lose as bad habits are hard to give up.

I've been doing a decent amount of exercise. Ran so many daily 5ks my knee started to protest. Got back into biking which I've pushed further and further - rode from Thornaby just south of the Tees to Newcastle yesterday. Monster ride. Epic.

But I am depressed and working from home. Which makes snacky goodness not just possible but essential. A weekly beer night. With some midweek wee dram action. OK so I've finally decided that self medication isn't working and need professional attention. But weight management isn't exactly a priority at the moment.

Sympathies and although I do respect your earnest endeavours to comply with guidance , if it is making you depressed and you want to do something to make you happier I would just do it and sod the covid -19 overregulations

The last few days of having to wear a mask isn't making me depressed. As for sod it, isn't that how we have ended up in this mess with 20k dead who needn't have been?

isam said:

RochdalePioneers said:

isam said:

kinabalu said:

WhisperingOracle said:

isam said:

.

WhisperingOracle said:

isam said:

RIP Peter Green

So sad. I loved Peter. This week I have been trying to learn Oh Well and Black Magic Woman on the guitar.

I think had you offered him his last twenty five years back in the late 70s/early 80s he wouldn't have believed it possible. It could have been a lot, lot worse.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6GB_c6d_2U

My wife's family knew Peter Green's younger relatives, apparently. One of that generation of postwar East End Jewish boys drawn to the 'sixties creative industries ; Marc Bolan was another.

An incredibly sad story. The Man of the World documentary by the BBC is good. I think it is on iplayer, but no doubt will be shown again now he has sadly passed away. Spent his final years in Leigh-on-Sea I believe

https://web.musicaficionado.com/main/article/Peter_Green_Article

Thanks for this. There are incredible similarities with Syd Barrett's story here ; those who were the most sensitive souls, and had a period of having their drinks spiked with LSD, often seem to have suffered the most negative consequences of hallucinogens. Both he and Barrett seem to have degenerated almost to drifters after these experiences, which they didn't plan or initiate.

More confident personalities of the era, acting with their own sense of agency, and most importantly not so enormously frightened and unsettled by the experience, seemed to have been the ones sometimes deriving more benefit from it ; and also generally seemed to have returned to the drug only rarely, if at all, afterwards.

Yes strikingly similar stories.

And in both cases following the demise of the talented but vulnerable founding member the bands went on to enormous commercial success.

I used to be a big fan of early Floyd ft Syd, Piper at the Gates of Dawn, but now it sounds like absolute nonsense. Peter Green, in contrast, was a serious musician, and his music with Fleetwood Mac still sounds fantastic today

Sorry, but you're saying that Pink Floyd in contrast were *not* serious musicians? Its an opinion...

Nick Mason's Saucerful of Secrets. Fantastic band playing fantastic music. And the best thing on their setlist? Vegetable Man, which is literally - and gloriously - nonsense.

Syd Barrett, not the rest of Pink Floyd. I have probably listened to every song Barrett ever recorded, and read every book written about him - when I was 20 I could probably have had him as my specialist subject on Mastermind! But, 25 years on I have to say I think his music has aged very badly - I actually played "The Gnome" to my 8 month old son the other day and it wasn't out of place with the nonsense he listens to!

Green, on the other hand, is a genuine rock legend whose music aged beautifully

RochdalePioneers said:

Black_Rook said:

Andy_JS said:

This is disappointing. I would have thought most people are exercising more than before.

"The public has been snacking more in lockdown and, despite increases in sales of bikes and exercise equipment, overall activity levels appear to have dropped compared to before the pandemic"

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-07-24/experts-warn-over-huge-risk-of-covid-death-in-obese-people-as-gyms-reopen

But not at all surprising. There will have been a lot of boredom and anxiety eating going on during this period, and the proportion of gym users who've taken up outdoor exercise will be well short of 100%, despite the fact that we've had a lot of good weather.

This period of enforced inactivity - the prolonged closure of leisure facilities, and prohibition of sports - will likely have undone many years of effort to get the population more active, just as many people have also developed serious chocolate biscuit fixations. Alas, good habits are often as easy to lose as bad habits are hard to give up.

I've been doing a decent amount of exercise. Ran so many daily 5ks my knee started to protest. Got back into biking which I've pushed further and further - rode from Thornaby just south of the Tees to Newcastle yesterday. Monster ride. Epic.

But I am depressed and working from home. Which makes snacky goodness not just possible but essential. A weekly beer night. With some midweek wee dram action. OK so I've finally decided that self medication isn't working and need professional attention. But weight management isn't exactly a priority at the moment.

state_go_away said:

RochdalePioneers said:

state_go_away said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Black_Rook said:

Andy_JS said:

This is disappointing. I would have thought most people are exercising more than before.

"The public has been snacking more in lockdown and, despite increases in sales of bikes and exercise equipment, overall activity levels appear to have dropped compared to before the pandemic"

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-07-24/experts-warn-over-huge-risk-of-covid-death-in-obese-people-as-gyms-reopen

But not at all surprising. There will have been a lot of boredom and anxiety eating going on during this period, and the proportion of gym users who've taken up outdoor exercise will be well short of 100%, despite the fact that we've had a lot of good weather.

This period of enforced inactivity - the prolonged closure of leisure facilities, and prohibition of sports - will likely have undone many years of effort to get the population more active, just as many people have also developed serious chocolate biscuit fixations. Alas, good habits are often as easy to lose as bad habits are hard to give up.

I've been doing a decent amount of exercise. Ran so many daily 5ks my knee started to protest. Got back into biking which I've pushed further and further - rode from Thornaby just south of the Tees to Newcastle yesterday. Monster ride. Epic.

But I am depressed and working from home. Which makes snacky goodness not just possible but essential. A weekly beer night. With some midweek wee dram action. OK so I've finally decided that self medication isn't working and need professional attention. But weight management isn't exactly a priority at the moment.

Sympathies and although I do respect your earnest endeavours to comply with guidance , if it is making you depressed and you want to do something to make you happier I would just do it and sod the covid -19 overregulations

The last few days of having to wear a mask isn't making me depressed. As for sod it, isn't that how we have ended up in this mess with 20k dead who needn't have been?

well no I dont think so - at some point herd immunity is needed - no point in destroying the economy and also peoples mental state - NY .London ,Sweden wont have a second wave of any significance because there is herd immunity - those that try and stop it full stop with have a miserable population , terrible unemployment and still get it

state_go_away said:

rcs1000 said:

state_go_away said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RH1992 said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1287076666142072833

But to me this is how the system should be working. Spain reports a spike and we act accordingly and swiftly. If we dithered then we'd be making the same mistakes as at the start of the pandemic.

Most holiday providers have COVID guarantees now but there's always going to be some who lose out, it's a risk you take when you go abroad right now.

Philip_Thompson said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1287076666142072833

Whack-a-mole is entirely appropriate here. Deal with problems as and when they pop up until they stop popping up.

Of course it is

This is UK wide and top marks to HMG for taking this decision

For goodness sake, Spain was on the radar for 14 days quarantine remaining in place when it was lifted elsewhere (and at the last minute Span). Johnson is behind the 8 ball again.

Take the blinkers off!

I thought Spain with all its mask wearing would be safe - are we sure mask wearing does anything?

Would you support surgeons not wearing masks during surgery? Because the principle is the same: you don't spread your particles far when you breath or cough.

for all the good it has done Spain . Masks do sod all because most people (especially those who dont want to wear them do not use them properly. All that disgusting garbage as well .

Mexicanpete said:

MattW said:

Mexicanpete said:

justin124 said:

Mexicanpete said:

CatMan said:

Mexicanpete said:

ydoethur said:

Mexicanpete said:

I think you overstate Labour's unpopularity in the Bay. That is not to say a rainbow coalition of non-Labour AMs will not form the next Government.

I don’t know. My impression is their support is patchy. I think Labour are in advanced and possibly terminal decay in the north outside Bangor, while in Dyfed-Powys they’ve been weak for years.

But I would expect a Labour-Plaid coalition next year if only because I cannot see any other route to 30 other than Tory majority (which ain’t happening).

But I can see Tories - most seats in 2021 (albeit it’s not the likeliest outcome) and taking power in 2025-26.

The Johnson factor may make Conservatives most seats next year.

I know, I know, I live in a parallel universe where Johnson appears to be a catastrophe. But he is working class hero catnip to former Labour blue collar voters.

I hate to get all HYFUD, but the last poll that was taken doesn't seem to show that

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1271153920941928451?s=20

Good point. My anecdotal antenna makes me nervous that the Conservatives are still in the ascent as your poll suggests. I just don't see where the improvement for Labour comes from.

Why would Labour under Starmer do worse in Wales than Corbyn in 2019 - or even 2017? Particularly in the context of a swing to Labour across GB of circa 4%! Never seen it happen there before.

Brexit and latent racism.

One would hope that by then Mr Starmer has substantially dealt with that issue, though it may cost him the casually racist part of of his party - who may go to / return to some sort of SWP or Socialist Unity structure, or switch to the Greens, which is were some of the SWP went after their 'keep rape investigations in the party' scandal.

Suspect his position on Brexit will be quite tactical, given that the Tories will perhaps still be dogmatic, and the LDs may still have their head in a gooseberry bush.

I was suggesting Mr Johnson's water melon smiles and letter box jokes play well in former, and soon to be former Labour seats.

Clearly, as two posters have misunderstood that, my mistake!

Philip_Thompson said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

SONGS OF THE BATTLE GROUND (AND POSSIBLE VP) STATES - NEW MEXICO

BILLY THE KID
Bill Dean & Paul Nelson (and performed by Ry Cooder)

I'll sing you a song about Billy the Kid
I'll sing the record of deeds that he did
Way out in New Mexico a long time ago
When a (G) man's only friend was his his own .44

Now when Billy the Kid was a very young lad
In old Silver City he went to the bad
Way out west with a knife in his hand
At the age of twelve years he killed his first man

Fair Mexican maidens play guitars and sing
Songs about Billy their boy bandit king
Before his young manhood reached its sad end
He'd a notch on his pistol for twenty one men

It was on one black night that poor Billy died
He said to his friends, I'm not satisfied
There's twenty one men that I've put bullets through
And sheriff Pat Garrett's gonna make twenty-two

Well, this is how Billy the Kid met his fate
A big moon was shining and the hour was late
Shot down by Pat Garrett, Silver City's best friend
The poor outlaw's life have reached its sad end

From a town known as Wheeling West Virginia
Rode a boy with a six-gun in his hand
And his daring life of crime
Made him a legend in his time
East and West of the Rio Grande

Well he started with a bank in Colorado
In the pocket of his vest, a Colt he hid
And his age and his size took the teller by surprise
And word spread of Billy the Kid

Well he never traveled heavy
Yes, he always rode alone
And he soon put other older guns to shame
And he never had a sweetheart
And he never had a home
But the cowboy and the rancher knew his name

Well he robbed his way from Utah to Oklahoma
And the law just could not seem to track him down
And it served his legend well
For the folks they'd love to tell 'bout when Billy the Kid came to town

Well one cold day a posse captured Billy
And the judge said "String 'I'm up for what he did!"
And the cowboys and their kin like the sea, came pourin' in to watch the hangin' of Billy the Kid

Well he never traveled heavy
Yes, he always rode alone
And he soon put other older guns to shame
And he never had a sweetheart
But he finally found a home
Underneath the boot hill grave that bears his name

From a town known as Oyster Bay, Long Island
Rode a boy with a six-pack in his hand
And his daring life of crime
Made him a legend in his time
East and West of the Rio Grande

Billy Joel ~ The Ballad of the Billy the Kid

BJ song clearly NOT about historic William Bonney aka Billy the Kid. Who was born in New York City (Manhattan) - NOT Wheeling, West Virginia (which was still in VA when WB was born). Who was shot to death - NOT hanged - by Pat Garrett; the Kid's reputed last words were "¿Quién es? ¿Quién es?" ("Who is it? Who is it?")

As for the "boy" from "Oyster Bay, Long Island" that sounds like Theodore Roosevelt, esp. IF you consider imperialism, racisim & war-mongering crimes.

Yes there was a lot of artistic licence in his song.

I doubt Joel was calling Teddy Roosevelt a war criminal, more likely self-referential considering that I believe is where he's from himself.

ydoethur said:

Mexicanpete said:

MattW said:

Mexicanpete said:

justin124 said:

Mexicanpete said:

CatMan said:

Mexicanpete said:

ydoethur said:

Mexicanpete said:

I think you overstate Labour's unpopularity in the Bay. That is not to say a rainbow coalition of non-Labour AMs will not form the next Government.

I don’t know. My impression is their support is patchy. I think Labour are in advanced and possibly terminal decay in the north outside Bangor, while in Dyfed-Powys they’ve been weak for years.

But I would expect a Labour-Plaid coalition next year if only because I cannot see any other route to 30 other than Tory majority (which ain’t happening).

But I can see Tories - most seats in 2021 (albeit it’s not the likeliest outcome) and taking power in 2025-26.

The Johnson factor may make Conservatives most seats next year.

I know, I know, I live in a parallel universe where Johnson appears to be a catastrophe. But he is working class hero catnip to former Labour blue collar voters.

I hate to get all HYFUD, but the last poll that was taken doesn't seem to show that

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1271153920941928451?s=20

Good point. My anecdotal antenna makes me nervous that the Conservatives are still in the ascent as your poll suggests. I just don't see where the improvement for Labour comes from.

Why would Labour under Starmer do worse in Wales than Corbyn in 2019 - or even 2017? Particularly in the context of a swing to Labour across GB of circa 4%! Never seen it happen there before.

Brexit and latent racism.

One would hope that by then Mr Starmer has substantially dealt with that issue, though it may cost him the casually racist part of of his party - who may go to / return to some sort of SWP or Socialist Unity structure, or switch to the Greens, which is were some of the SWP went after their 'keep rape investigations in the party' scandal.

Suspect his position on Brexit will be quite tactical, given that the Tories will perhaps still be dogmatic, and the LDs may still have their head in a gooseberry bush.

I was suggesting Mr Johnson's water melon smiles and letter box jokes play well in former, and soon to be former Labour seats.

Clearly, as two posters have misunderstood that, my mistake!

I didn’t misunderstand you. I just saw an excellent opportunity to annoy a certain poster (not Justin) who gets very agitated every time I make a dig at Corbyn!

justin124 said:

CatMan said:

justin124 said:

Mexicanpete said:

justin124 said:

Mexicanpete said:

justin124 said:

Mexicanpete said:

ydoethur said:

GarethoftheVale2 said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Can somebody explain the new boundaries as I thought the seat numbers were remaining the same

Yes they are keeping at 650 seats and a 5% threshold. There are 5 protected seats: Orkney and Shetland, Na h-Eileanan an Iar, Ynys Mon, and 2 for Isle of Wight.

The main difference with the current boundaries is that Wales loses its over-representation so will likely lose 8 seats. The main winner region is likely to be the South East, which could gain 7 seats.

The new boundaries should benefit the Tories but not as much as before the election. Electoral Calculus' current estimate is Con +6, Lab -3, SNP -2, Plaid - 1 vs 2019.

The boundaries will be based on the electorates from March 2020. So I'm guessing the review will kick off either end of this year or early next year.

I ran a rough calculation based on the likely seats for Wales a few months back.

I came up with Labour 14, Tory 12, Plaid 2 and a few which were too close to call. With Ynys Môn getting protected status, I’m going to hesitantly put that in the Tory column. I know it’s very close, but it’s 1951 since a sitting MP was defeated there. That leaves three I’m struggling with - two in Carmarthenshire which might go any one of three ways and one in the North.

Any reduction for Wales will hurt Labour pretty badly because the Valleys are their last stronghold and they will inevitably take a pounding.

Labour are not very popular in the blue collar seats along the M4 corridor anyway. Boris Johnson by contrast is revered amongst people who considered Brexit to be the way forward.

If Johnson can avoid any blame for any post-Covid and post- Brexit economic damage, and I believe Wales will be caned, particularly post-Brexit, he will pick up a few more seats outside Cardiff. I am sure he has his scapegoats lined up already.

I doubt that. I would expect Labour to regain many - perhaps all - of the seats lost in Wales in 2019. Even if the Tories manage to retain a GB lead of 4% - 5% - compared with 11.7% last time - Labour should regain Bridgend - Delyn - Vale of Clwyd - Clwyd South.Wrexham would be another likely gain. Boundary changes may affect some outcomes , but in the context of a pro- Labour swing of 3% - 4% not very much.

I live near Bridgend, and I would have thought you are right, particularly with the fallout from the closure of the engine plant, but WAG rather than Johnson are taking the hit on that.

Labour have a very frosty relationship with the TV broadcast media here in Wales. Local BBC news is very hostile. Drakeford's stock has risen through Covid, but he and the Assembly Government are compared poorly against Johnson's performance, particularly in relation to the "late" opening of retail and hospitality sectors. Still no mandatory mask wearing in Wales, so Drakeford and Gething are being hammered in the media (rightly?) for that.

Johnson is an enigma here in Wales. Historically the Welsh were hostile to English Tory Toffs, but Johnson seems to transcend that.

The last poll in Wales showed a big shift back to Labour.I believe it would be a mistake to extrapolate much from Welsh Assembly elections where turnout is much lower and party alleigances much looser. Were I on the electoral roll there, I would support the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party.

I voted "No" in 1998, but I am a convert now.

I did not have a vote in Autumn 1997 - but have certainly not changed my mind.Very content if Johnson called a Referendum there to ascertain whether voters still wanted the Assembly. I am firmly of the Left but would vote Tory in a Tory v Plaid contest. Ditto in Scotland re-SNP.

Again, I'm going to go all HYFUD and show the latest polls on the Wales and the Welsh *Parliament* (It's not an Assembly anymore)

https://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2020/06/05/attitudes-to-devolution-and-welsh-independence/

"If there were a referendum tomorrow on abolishing the Senedd (Welsh Parliament) and this was the question, how would you vote? Should Wales abolish the Senedd (Welsh Parliament)?” The result for this question (with changes since January again in brackets) were:

Yes: 25% (+1)
No: 48% (+1)
Would not vote: 8% (no change)
Don’t Know: 16% (-1)
Refused: 3% (-1)"

The new Barometer poll also repeated the now standard multiple-choice constitutional preference question that has been used in several previous Barometer polls as well as in many other studies. The findings here (with changes since January again in brackets) were:

No devolved government in Wales: 22% (+5)
Senedd with fewer powers: 5% (-3)
Leave things as they are now: 24% (no change)
Senedd with more powers: 20% (+2)
Independent Wales: 16% (+2)
Don’t Know: 12% (-4)
Refused: 2% (-1)"

I have seen that poll - but also recall polls leading up to the 1997 Devolution Referendum predicting a Yes win by at least 60% to 40%. In the event, it was 50.3% to 49.7%. My general sense is that the Assembly excites few voters - as reflected in low turnouts.

rcs1000 said:

state_go_away said:

nichomar said:

Black_Rook said:

state_go_away said:

Black_Rook said:

nichomar said:

Black_Rook said:

ydoethur said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

Spain had a very strict lockdown and a phased return to normality. We could be looking and learning from what is happening there now with Covid's return given that our cycle is a few weeks' behind their one. What are the chances?

What do you think we should do?

Well, if nightclubs are a key source of transmission, one suggestion is don’t reopen fecking nightclubs.

How many people would really miss them? Truthfully?

Agree. I've been wondering for the last couple of days, whilst the possible causes of the Spanish spike have been debated, whether nightclubs are a key component - although it could also be that the Spaniards are less reticent about going out generally and have more of a culture of eating out, as a consequence of which they're packing out the bars and restaurants in much higher densities? Though someone who's actually familiar with what conditions are like over there at the moment would be better placed to comment.

Specifically with regard to nightclubs, I have no time for them either but then again I'm a stick-in-the-mud fortysomething who's not exactly part of their target demographic. They are popular with a lot of people and, as with the arts, they should be propped up until it is safe for them to resume normal operations. Apart from anything else, since this has all started I've read more than one piece of comment on the nightclubs to the effect that, if the sector is allowed to collapse, the venues are a prime target to be bought up on the cheap and re-opened later by organised crime. This makes sense. They'd be somewhere ideal to ply the naive or reckless young with drugs.

Let’s start with the temperature, it’s currently 28 there’s no way you are going to sleep anytime soon. Therefore eating in or out for most starts at 9:30 and goes into the early hours. Groups gather in restaurants, bars and on terraces until 4 or 5 in the morning, the young look for something more exciting so in the absence of discos etc just gather in larger groups. It’s holiday time but there are no fiestas, people are getting together for the first time in months, they hug and kiss. Yes many are bloody irresponsible it would not be too difficult to enjoy life with just a little thought but maybe alcohol is to blame. The R number is still below one, the ICU cases very low and the deaths negligible so maybe some are saying ‘what’s the problem’

Even if you shut the bars down at 11 people would carry on on their terrace. It’s frustrating to us more elderly locals but that’s how it is. 10,000 people from Madrid on their way to our small town on Friday what On earth could could Go wrong?

Hmmmm... I think we all well remember that there have been similar concerns about mass gatherings over here as well - notably the great Bournemouth and Lulworth Cove beach panics - but this theory does sound as though it could be plausible nonetheless. Little knots of sunbathers will consist largely of family household groups and aren't going to be interacting with one another. Sounds like there's a lot more socialising going on in this instance.

I wonder if there have been any clusters of cases traced back to illegal raves in this country?

If we are not careful we will nanny ourselves back into the dark ages.

I'm not fond of the restrictions under which we currently labour either (and I think we could still do with better evidence on masks,) but it seems not unreasonable to conclude that the solution to keeping a lid on this highly infectious disease lies somewhere between sitting in our houses the entire time and carrying on as if nothing had happened. The only question is how much we can get away with.

The Government's approach appears to be working at the moment, but it also seems appropriate to look at what is happening in other countries to try to preempt any future problems. Frankly, if it turns out at the end of all this that everything can open back up except nightclubs, then that doesn't seem like such a bad result.

You will still need an outlet for those who would have gone to clubs, illegal raves?

As a bad dancer and not a fan of loud music I wont miss nightclubs personally but then again I am not 18 -25 . I really dont think the existence of civilisation rests with not having nightclubs. It spretty obvious you need herd immunity from this and NY .London ,Sweden have gone a way to it - others will get there , mask wearing /nightclubs whatever .All that is lost by overly restrictive laws now is common humanity and hope that people will still have jobs

So, Sweden's done better than us economically, right?

Err. No. Normality has returned more to places that had lockdowns than didn't.

CatMan said:

justin124 said:

CatMan said:

justin124 said:

Mexicanpete said:

justin124 said:

Mexicanpete said:

justin124 said:

Mexicanpete said:

ydoethur said:

GarethoftheVale2 said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Can somebody explain the new boundaries as I thought the seat numbers were remaining the same

Yes they are keeping at 650 seats and a 5% threshold. There are 5 protected seats: Orkney and Shetland, Na h-Eileanan an Iar, Ynys Mon, and 2 for Isle of Wight.

The main difference with the current boundaries is that Wales loses its over-representation so will likely lose 8 seats. The main winner region is likely to be the South East, which could gain 7 seats.

The new boundaries should benefit the Tories but not as much as before the election. Electoral Calculus' current estimate is Con +6, Lab -3, SNP -2, Plaid - 1 vs 2019.

The boundaries will be based on the electorates from March 2020. So I'm guessing the review will kick off either end of this year or early next year.

I ran a rough calculation based on the likely seats for Wales a few months back.

I came up with Labour 14, Tory 12, Plaid 2 and a few which were too close to call. With Ynys Môn getting protected status, I’m going to hesitantly put that in the Tory column. I know it’s very close, but it’s 1951 since a sitting MP was defeated there. That leaves three I’m struggling with - two in Carmarthenshire which might go any one of three ways and one in the North.

Any reduction for Wales will hurt Labour pretty badly because the Valleys are their last stronghold and they will inevitably take a pounding.

Labour are not very popular in the blue collar seats along the M4 corridor anyway. Boris Johnson by contrast is revered amongst people who considered Brexit to be the way forward.

If Johnson can avoid any blame for any post-Covid and post- Brexit economic damage, and I believe Wales will be caned, particularly post-Brexit, he will pick up a few more seats outside Cardiff. I am sure he has his scapegoats lined up already.

I doubt that. I would expect Labour to regain many - perhaps all - of the seats lost in Wales in 2019. Even if the Tories manage to retain a GB lead of 4% - 5% - compared with 11.7% last time - Labour should regain Bridgend - Delyn - Vale of Clwyd - Clwyd South.Wrexham would be another likely gain. Boundary changes may affect some outcomes , but in the context of a pro- Labour swing of 3% - 4% not very much.

I live near Bridgend, and I would have thought you are right, particularly with the fallout from the closure of the engine plant, but WAG rather than Johnson are taking the hit on that.

Labour have a very frosty relationship with the TV broadcast media here in Wales. Local BBC news is very hostile. Drakeford's stock has risen through Covid, but he and the Assembly Government are compared poorly against Johnson's performance, particularly in relation to the "late" opening of retail and hospitality sectors. Still no mandatory mask wearing in Wales, so Drakeford and Gething are being hammered in the media (rightly?) for that.

Johnson is an enigma here in Wales. Historically the Welsh were hostile to English Tory Toffs, but Johnson seems to transcend that.

The last poll in Wales showed a big shift back to Labour.I believe it would be a mistake to extrapolate much from Welsh Assembly elections where turnout is much lower and party alleigances much looser. Were I on the electoral roll there, I would support the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party.

I voted "No" in 1998, but I am a convert now.

I did not have a vote in Autumn 1997 - but have certainly not changed my mind.Very content if Johnson called a Referendum there to ascertain whether voters still wanted the Assembly. I am firmly of the Left but would vote Tory in a Tory v Plaid contest. Ditto in Scotland re-SNP.

Again, I'm going to go all HYFUD and show the latest polls on the Wales and the Welsh *Parliament* (It's not an Assembly anymore)

https://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2020/06/05/attitudes-to-devolution-and-welsh-independence/

"If there were a referendum tomorrow on abolishing the Senedd (Welsh Parliament) and this was the question, how would you vote? Should Wales abolish the Senedd (Welsh Parliament)?” The result for this question (with changes since January again in brackets) were:

Yes: 25% (+1)
No: 48% (+1)
Would not vote: 8% (no change)
Don’t Know: 16% (-1)
Refused: 3% (-1)"

The new Barometer poll also repeated the now standard multiple-choice constitutional preference question that has been used in several previous Barometer polls as well as in many other studies. The findings here (with changes since January again in brackets) were:

No devolved government in Wales: 22% (+5)
Senedd with fewer powers: 5% (-3)
Leave things as they are now: 24% (no change)
Senedd with more powers: 20% (+2)
Independent Wales: 16% (+2)
Don’t Know: 12% (-4)
Refused: 2% (-1)"

I have seen that poll - but also recall polls leading up to the 1997 Devolution Referendum predicting a Yes win by at least 60% to 40%. In the event, it was 50.3% to 49.7%. My general sense is that the Assembly excites few voters - as reflected in low turnouts.

I don't agree. The last referendum in Wales (on increasing the powers of the Welsh (as it was then) Assembly passed comfortably.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Welsh_devolution_referendum

I think the Welsh Independence genie has been let out of the bottle. It will take longer than Scottish Independence, but I think eventually it will happen.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Philip_Thompson said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

On old boundaries Tories are on 327 as per Opinium poll.

I wonder if Tories will see a poll boost if Brexit is perceived to be a success

Hopefully, for everyone's sake whatever you thought about it at the time, it is good if it is perceived to be a success in hindsight is it not?

The last thing anyone should want is a catastrophe.

I hope it is a success but I don't think it will be.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1287100304530579463

Black_Rook said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Black_Rook said:

Andy_JS said:

This is disappointing. I would have thought most people are exercising more than before.

"The public has been snacking more in lockdown and, despite increases in sales of bikes and exercise equipment, overall activity levels appear to have dropped compared to before the pandemic"

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-07-24/experts-warn-over-huge-risk-of-covid-death-in-obese-people-as-gyms-reopen

But not at all surprising. There will have been a lot of boredom and anxiety eating going on during this period, and the proportion of gym users who've taken up outdoor exercise will be well short of 100%, despite the fact that we've had a lot of good weather.

This period of enforced inactivity - the prolonged closure of leisure facilities, and prohibition of sports - will likely have undone many years of effort to get the population more active, just as many people have also developed serious chocolate biscuit fixations. Alas, good habits are often as easy to lose as bad habits are hard to give up.

I've been doing a decent amount of exercise. Ran so many daily 5ks my knee started to protest. Got back into biking which I've pushed further and further - rode from Thornaby just south of the Tees to Newcastle yesterday. Monster ride. Epic.

But I am depressed and working from home. Which makes snacky goodness not just possible but essential. A weekly beer night. With some midweek wee dram action. OK so I've finally decided that self medication isn't working and need professional attention. But weight management isn't exactly a priority at the moment.

"But weight management isn't exactly a priority at the moment."

You and about thirty million other people. Regardless of whether or not you regard the Government's reported weight loss drive as nannying, I fear that it's not going to have much effect - at least, not in time to help if there is a Winter resurgence.

Stark_Dawning said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/TheClearCider/status/1286895827546505218

I get the point, but portraying Nixon as a supreme statesman who ended the Vietnam war is a bit of a stretch.

rcs1000 said:

state_go_away said:

nichomar said:

Black_Rook said:

state_go_away said:

Black_Rook said:

nichomar said:

Black_Rook said:

ydoethur said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

Spain had a very strict lockdown and a phased return to normality. We could be looking and learning from what is happening there now with Covid's return given that our cycle is a few weeks' behind their one. What are the chances?

What do you think we should do?

Well, if nightclubs are a key source of transmission, one suggestion is don’t reopen fecking nightclubs.

How many people would really miss them? Truthfully?

Agree. I've been wondering for the last couple of days, whilst the possible causes of the Spanish spike have been debated, whether nightclubs are a key component - although it could also be that the Spaniards are less reticent about going out generally and have more of a culture of eating out, as a consequence of which they're packing out the bars and restaurants in much higher densities? Though someone who's actually familiar with what conditions are like over there at the moment would be better placed to comment.

Specifically with regard to nightclubs, I have no time for them either but then again I'm a stick-in-the-mud fortysomething who's not exactly part of their target demographic. They are popular with a lot of people and, as with the arts, they should be propped up until it is safe for them to resume normal operations. Apart from anything else, since this has all started I've read more than one piece of comment on the nightclubs to the effect that, if the sector is allowed to collapse, the venues are a prime target to be bought up on the cheap and re-opened later by organised crime. This makes sense. They'd be somewhere ideal to ply the naive or reckless young with drugs.

Let’s start with the temperature, it’s currently 28 there’s no way you are going to sleep anytime soon. Therefore eating in or out for most starts at 9:30 and goes into the early hours. Groups gather in restaurants, bars and on terraces until 4 or 5 in the morning, the young look for something more exciting so in the absence of discos etc just gather in larger groups. It’s holiday time but there are no fiestas, people are getting together for the first time in months, they hug and kiss. Yes many are bloody irresponsible it would not be too difficult to enjoy life with just a little thought but maybe alcohol is to blame. The R number is still below one, the ICU cases very low and the deaths negligible so maybe some are saying ‘what’s the problem’

Even if you shut the bars down at 11 people would carry on on their terrace. It’s frustrating to us more elderly locals but that’s how it is. 10,000 people from Madrid on their way to our small town on Friday what On earth could could Go wrong?

Hmmmm... I think we all well remember that there have been similar concerns about mass gatherings over here as well - notably the great Bournemouth and Lulworth Cove beach panics - but this theory does sound as though it could be plausible nonetheless. Little knots of sunbathers will consist largely of family household groups and aren't going to be interacting with one another. Sounds like there's a lot more socialising going on in this instance.

I wonder if there have been any clusters of cases traced back to illegal raves in this country?

If we are not careful we will nanny ourselves back into the dark ages.

I'm not fond of the restrictions under which we currently labour either (and I think we could still do with better evidence on masks,) but it seems not unreasonable to conclude that the solution to keeping a lid on this highly infectious disease lies somewhere between sitting in our houses the entire time and carrying on as if nothing had happened. The only question is how much we can get away with.

The Government's approach appears to be working at the moment, but it also seems appropriate to look at what is happening in other countries to try to preempt any future problems. Frankly, if it turns out at the end of all this that everything can open back up except nightclubs, then that doesn't seem like such a bad result.

You will still need an outlet for those who would have gone to clubs, illegal raves?

As a bad dancer and not a fan of loud music I wont miss nightclubs personally but then again I am not 18 -25 . I really dont think the existence of civilisation rests with not having nightclubs. It spretty obvious you need herd immunity from this and NY .London ,Sweden have gone a way to it - others will get there , mask wearing /nightclubs whatever .All that is lost by overly restrictive laws now is common humanity and hope that people will still have jobs

So, Sweden's done better than us economically, right?

Err. No. Normality has returned more to places that had lockdowns than didn't.

RochdalePioneers said:

Black_Rook said:

Andy_JS said:

This is disappointing. I would have thought most people are exercising more than before.

"The public has been snacking more in lockdown and, despite increases in sales of bikes and exercise equipment, overall activity levels appear to have dropped compared to before the pandemic"

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-07-24/experts-warn-over-huge-risk-of-covid-death-in-obese-people-as-gyms-reopen

But not at all surprising. There will have been a lot of boredom and anxiety eating going on during this period, and the proportion of gym users who've taken up outdoor exercise will be well short of 100%, despite the fact that we've had a lot of good weather.

This period of enforced inactivity - the prolonged closure of leisure facilities, and prohibition of sports - will likely have undone many years of effort to get the population more active, just as many people have also developed serious chocolate biscuit fixations. Alas, good habits are often as easy to lose as bad habits are hard to give up.

I've been doing a decent amount of exercise. Ran so many daily 5ks my knee started to protest. Got back into biking which I've pushed further and further - rode from Thornaby just south of the Tees to Newcastle yesterday. Monster ride. Epic.

But I am depressed and working from home. Which makes snacky goodness not just possible but essential. A weekly beer night. With some midweek wee dram action. OK so I've finally decided that self medication isn't working and need professional attention. But weight management isn't exactly a priority at the moment.

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/Tpopularfront/status/1287116453808877569

RochdalePioneers said:

rcs1000 said:

state_go_away said:

nichomar said:

Black_Rook said:

state_go_away said:

Black_Rook said:

nichomar said:

Black_Rook said:

ydoethur said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

Spain had a very strict lockdown and a phased return to normality. We could be looking and learning from what is happening there now with Covid's return given that our cycle is a few weeks' behind their one. What are the chances?

What do you think we should do?

Well, if nightclubs are a key source of transmission, one suggestion is don’t reopen fecking nightclubs.

How many people would really miss them? Truthfully?

Agree. I've been wondering for the last couple of days, whilst the possible causes of the Spanish spike have been debated, whether nightclubs are a key component - although it could also be that the Spaniards are less reticent about going out generally and have more of a culture of eating out, as a consequence of which they're packing out the bars and restaurants in much higher densities? Though someone who's actually familiar with what conditions are like over there at the moment would be better placed to comment.

Specifically with regard to nightclubs, I have no time for them either but then again I'm a stick-in-the-mud fortysomething who's not exactly part of their target demographic. They are popular with a lot of people and, as with the arts, they should be propped up until it is safe for them to resume normal operations. Apart from anything else, since this has all started I've read more than one piece of comment on the nightclubs to the effect that, if the sector is allowed to collapse, the venues are a prime target to be bought up on the cheap and re-opened later by organised crime. This makes sense. They'd be somewhere ideal to ply the naive or reckless young with drugs.

Let’s start with the temperature, it’s currently 28 there’s no way you are going to sleep anytime soon. Therefore eating in or out for most starts at 9:30 and goes into the early hours. Groups gather in restaurants, bars and on terraces until 4 or 5 in the morning, the young look for something more exciting so in the absence of discos etc just gather in larger groups. It’s holiday time but there are no fiestas, people are getting together for the first time in months, they hug and kiss. Yes many are bloody irresponsible it would not be too difficult to enjoy life with just a little thought but maybe alcohol is to blame. The R number is still below one, the ICU cases very low and the deaths negligible so maybe some are saying ‘what’s the problem’

Even if you shut the bars down at 11 people would carry on on their terrace. It’s frustrating to us more elderly locals but that’s how it is. 10,000 people from Madrid on their way to our small town on Friday what On earth could could Go wrong?

Hmmmm... I think we all well remember that there have been similar concerns about mass gatherings over here as well - notably the great Bournemouth and Lulworth Cove beach panics - but this theory does sound as though it could be plausible nonetheless. Little knots of sunbathers will consist largely of family household groups and aren't going to be interacting with one another. Sounds like there's a lot more socialising going on in this instance.

I wonder if there have been any clusters of cases traced back to illegal raves in this country?

If we are not careful we will nanny ourselves back into the dark ages.

I'm not fond of the restrictions under which we currently labour either (and I think we could still do with better evidence on masks,) but it seems not unreasonable to conclude that the solution to keeping a lid on this highly infectious disease lies somewhere between sitting in our houses the entire time and carrying on as if nothing had happened. The only question is how much we can get away with.

The Government's approach appears to be working at the moment, but it also seems appropriate to look at what is happening in other countries to try to preempt any future problems. Frankly, if it turns out at the end of all this that everything can open back up except nightclubs, then that doesn't seem like such a bad result.

You will still need an outlet for those who would have gone to clubs, illegal raves?

As a bad dancer and not a fan of loud music I wont miss nightclubs personally but then again I am not 18 -25 . I really dont think the existence of civilisation rests with not having nightclubs. It spretty obvious you need herd immunity from this and NY .London ,Sweden have gone a way to it - others will get there , mask wearing /nightclubs whatever .All that is lost by overly restrictive laws now is common humanity and hope that people will still have jobs

So, Sweden's done better than us economically, right?

Err. No. Normality has returned more to places that had lockdowns than didn't.

And we aren't going to get normality until the rona isn't a menace to public health. I fear that state go away approaches are the very worst of ideas in this crisis guaranteed to ensure that normal is a long long way away.

LadyG said:

isam said:

LadyG said:

isam said:

kinabalu said:

WhisperingOracle said:

isam said:

.

WhisperingOracle said:

isam said:

RIP Peter Green

So sad. I loved Peter. This week I have been trying to learn Oh Well and Black Magic Woman on the guitar.

I think had you offered him his last twenty five years back in the late 70s/early 80s he wouldn't have believed it possible. It could have been a lot, lot worse.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6GB_c6d_2U

My wife's family knew Peter Green's younger relatives, apparently. One of that generation of postwar East End Jewish boys drawn to the 'sixties creative industries ; Marc Bolan was another.

An incredibly sad story. The Man of the World documentary by the BBC is good. I think it is on iplayer, but no doubt will be shown again now he has sadly passed away. Spent his final years in Leigh-on-Sea I believe

https://web.musicaficionado.com/main/article/Peter_Green_Article

Thanks for this. There are incredible similarities with Syd Barrett's story here ; those who were the most sensitive souls, and had a period of having their drinks spiked with LSD, often seem to have suffered the most negative consequences of hallucinogens. Both he and Barrett seem to have degenerated almost to drifters after these experiences, which they didn't plan or initiate.

More confident personalities of the era, acting with their own sense of agency, and most importantly not so enormously frightened and unsettled by the experience, seemed to have been the ones sometimes deriving more benefit from it ; and also generally seemed to have returned to the drug only rarely, if at all, afterwards.

Yes strikingly similar stories.

And in both cases following the demise of the talented but vulnerable founding member the bands went on to enormous commercial success.

I used to be a big fan of early Floyd ft Syd, Piper at the Gates of Dawn, but now it sounds like absolute nonsense. Peter Green, in contrast, was a serious musician, and his music with Fleetwood Mac still sounds fantastic today

Barrett wrote some interesting songs, the very best of them - from his solo album - have a poetically uncanny quality.

He's still a bit of a folk hero to me, maybe because of his madness.

But the band was definitely and hugely improved by his leaving, and Gilmour joining. Only that band could have made Dark Side of the Moon and Wish You Were Here.

The solo albums were more of a psychiatric case study than musical entertainment for me - I wanted them to be great, but it's debatable that they should have been released IMO. He was supposed to be beyond impossible to work with in the studio by then, and they left on a couple of bad takes on the first one which I thought was a bit cruel.

There is a clip of Dave Gilmour playing "Octopus" with his family from about a week a go on Youtube or twitter - very strange to see a compos mentis 70-something sing that with a straight face

I will still happily listen to Effervescing Elephant, Bike, Here I Go, Gigolo Aunt, and Golden Hair. I love their mix of innocent wonder and dreaming sadness.

Barrett was also an extremely handsome young man, which adds to the poignancy of his story.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/Christabelius/status/1287119019905028106

https://twitter.com/CorrectHorseB/status/1287119139476209666

CorrectHorseBattery said:

RochdalePioneers said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/Tpopularfront/status/1287116453808877569

Good news! Now the Jeremy can keep saying what he thinks and the cult can keep funding his legal defences and libel payouts. True Socialism in action

Can they just fuck off and join the SWP.

I supported Corbyn until he lost an election, it is not sane for anyone to be supporting him now.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/Christabelius/status/1287119019905028106

https://twitter.com/CorrectHorseB/status/1287119139476209666

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Stark_Dawning said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/TheClearCider/status/1286895827546505218

I get the point, but portraying Nixon as a supreme statesman who ended the Vietnam war is a bit of a stretch.

Nixon was a supreme statesman who ended the Vietnam war.

Nixon was one of the greatest Presidents of all time . . . who got carried away with Watergate and cover ups and so became regarded as one of the most toxic and worst of all time. People will only ever associate Nixon with Watergate now but its worth remembering just how incredibly successful he was before Watergate.

If Nixon had been assassinated, JFK-style, in the weeks after his second election victory then I strongly believe history would now be remembering Nixon as one of the greatest Presidents of all time.

I was around when Nixon was President. Opening with China was his biggest achievement, hailed by Dems & Reps, liberals & (most) conservatives alike. AND you forgot to mention his founding the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) which is applauded by many enviros & progressives.

His "ending" of Vietnam War, not so much. He did extract US military, but way he it left VERY bad taste in American mouths. AND Nixon & his stodge Spiro Agnew (back when presidents got somebody else to play the Buffoon) certainly did nothing to "bring us together" like that famous sign said back in 1968.

Even at the height of his electoral glory in November 1972 he was NEVER loved by more than a fringe of weirdos (such as Roger Stone). My old man was a Republican who voted for him three times (1960, 1968, 1972) and never did like the SOB.

So was NOT shocking when people started flaunting their "Don't Blame Me - I'm From Massachusetts" bumper-stickers in 1973 . . .

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

His "ending" of Vietnam War, not so much. He did extract US military, but way he it left VERY bad taste in American mouths. AND Nixon & his stodge Spiro Agnew (back when presidents got somebody else to play the Buffoon) certainly did nothing to "bring us together" like that famous sign said back in 1968.

Mexicanpete said:

MattW said:

Mexicanpete said:

justin124 said:

Mexicanpete said:

CatMan said:

Mexicanpete said:

ydoethur said:

Mexicanpete said:

I think you overstate Labour's unpopularity in the Bay. That is not to say a rainbow coalition of non-Labour AMs will not form the next Government.

I don’t know. My impression is their support is patchy. I think Labour are in advanced and possibly terminal decay in the north outside Bangor, while in Dyfed-Powys they’ve been weak for years.

But I would expect a Labour-Plaid coalition next year if only because I cannot see any other route to 30 other than Tory majority (which ain’t happening).

But I can see Tories - most seats in 2021 (albeit it’s not the likeliest outcome) and taking power in 2025-26.

The Johnson factor may make Conservatives most seats next year.

I know, I know, I live in a parallel universe where Johnson appears to be a catastrophe. But he is working class hero catnip to former Labour blue collar voters.

I hate to get all HYFUD, but the last poll that was taken doesn't seem to show that

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1271153920941928451?s=20

Good point. My anecdotal antenna makes me nervous that the Conservatives are still in the ascent as your poll suggests. I just don't see where the improvement for Labour comes from.

Why would Labour under Starmer do worse in Wales than Corbyn in 2019 - or even 2017? Particularly in the context of a swing to Labour across GB of circa 4%! Never seen it happen there before.

Brexit and latent racism.

One would hope that by then Mr Starmer has substantially dealt with that issue, though it may cost him the casually racist part of of his party - who may go to / return to some sort of SWP or Socialist Unity structure, or switch to the Greens, which is were some of the SWP went after their 'keep rape investigations in the party' scandal.

Suspect his position on Brexit will be quite tactical, given that the Tories will perhaps still be dogmatic, and the LDs may still have their head in a gooseberry bush.

I was suggesting Mr Johnson's water melon smiles and letter box jokes play well in former, and soon to be former Labour seats.

Clearly, as two posters have misunderstood that, my mistake!