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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » We could be just a week away from Biden’s VP pick and the betting’s getting tighter
With Joe Biden totally dominating the next President polls the next big moment in WH2020 looks set to be the announcement of who is to be his running mate. Biden has already made it clear that it will be a woman and a lot of the betting is going on it being an African American.
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However, when that change has occurred here will be a further boundary review as the current boundaries are getting on for 15 years out of date.
It might actually be good news for Labour (outside Wales) as their seats have larger populations on average, being highly urban. However, that might be offset if the electoral roll rather than raw population is the metric.
The main difference with the current boundaries is that Wales loses its over-representation so will likely lose 8 seats. The main winner region is likely to be the South East, which could gain 7 seats.
The new boundaries should benefit the Tories but not as much as before the election. Electoral Calculus' current estimate is Con +6, Lab -3, SNP -2, Plaid - 1 vs 2019.
The boundaries will be based on the electorates from March 2020. So I'm guessing the review will kick off either end of this year or early next year.
Would nominateSir Lionel Sackville-West, who "served" 1881-88. During the 1888 presidential campaign, a Republican sent sir Lionel a letter under the assumed name "Charles F. Murchison" claiming to be a British immigrant to America, and asking HM's envoy for his advise on whom to vote for president.
Here is S-W's reply"
Sir: I am in receipt of your letter of the 4th instant, and beg to say that I fully appreciate the difficulty in which you find yourself in casting your vote.
You are probably aware that any political party which openly favored the mother country at the present moment would lose popularity, and that the party in power is fully aware of this fact. The party, however, is, I believe, still desirous of maintaining friendly relations with Great Britain, and is still as desirous of settling all questions with Canada which have been unfortunately re-opened since the retraction of the treaty[note 1] by the Republican majority in the Senate and by the President's message, to which you allude.
All allowances must, therefore, be made for the political situation as regards the Presidential election thus created. It is, however, impossible to predict the course which President Cleveland may pursue in the matter of retaliation should he be elected, but there is every reason to believe that, while upholding the position he has taken, he will manifest a spirit of conciliation in dealing with the question involved in his message. I inclose an article from the New York Times of the 22d of August, and remain, yours, faithfully,
— L.S. Sackville West., Beverly, Mass., September 13, 1888
"Murchison" immediately gave Sir Lionel's reply to the press. With the result that S-W was soon packing his bags to return to England, his career as a diplomat ended forever.
BTW, Grover Cleveland won the popular vote in 1888, but lost in the Electoral College. And the Murchison Letter played a role by stoking anti-British sentiment against the Democrats and for the Republicans - just intended by "Murchison" and the GOP.
I came up with Labour 14, Tory 12, Plaid 2 and a few which were too close to call. With Ynys Môn getting protected status, I’m going to hesitantly put that in the Tory column. I know it’s very close, but it’s 1951 since a sitting MP was defeated there. That leaves three I’m struggling with - two in Carmarthenshire which might go any one of three ways and one in the North.
Any reduction for Wales will hurt Labour pretty badly because the Valleys are their last stronghold and they will inevitably take a pounding.
So sad. I loved Peter. This week I have been trying to learn Oh Well and Black Magic Woman on the guitar.
I think had you offered him his last twenty five years back in the late 70s/early 80s he wouldn't have believed it possible. It could have been a lot, lot worse.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6GB_c6d_2U
https://twitter.com/Miss_Snuffy/status/1287041804316151812?s=19
NOT sure why MS thinks an early (that is, pre-convention, or whatever it is this year) announcement is likely. What's in it for Biden? Personally think he'd be better served waiting until the last minute, to maintain SOME kind of suspense.
Agree with the "do no harm" rationale, esp. when Biden is already poised to make history, by nominating the first woman who realistically could be the next Vice President. (Walter Mondal made history with Geraldine Ferraro in 1984, but the ticket was NOT a good bet, as ultimate Reagan-Bush 49-state victory showed.
Travellers returning to England from Spain will have to quarantine for 14 days from Sunday, the BBC understands.
It is believed the measures will come into force in the early hours of Sunday.
The government is expected to announce the change imminently, due to a significant spike in coronavirus cases in Spain.
Some think fact she scored off of Biden in one debate would make her unacceptable to Uncle Joe; personally think the opposite is true.
HOWEVER, fact that she ran what virtually all observers rated as a poor presidential campaign is NOT a recommendation.
Oh, sorry, you meant the holidaymakers not the government!
Personally think the notion that Uncle Joe is so frail and weak he'd not last four years is simply a GOP Great White Hope.
Most holiday providers have COVID guarantees now but there's always going to be some who lose out, it's a risk you take when you go abroad right now.
But seriously, people going abroad for sunshine holidays under the present circumstances have to expect something like this, or perhaps being found to be a carrier by the efficient testing services of the host country at the airport, and spending their entire holiday incarcerated under police guard in a hotel room half-a-mile down the road.
1) Total lockdown. Weld everyone in their houses.
2) Flexible response, on a day to day basis.
Since 1) can't work in the long run, we need to do 2)
Expecting everyone to finish their 2 week holiday, before changing the rules, would mean that 2) would become impossible.
61 people didn't die in all setting in the UK yesterday. 61 were reported today. 44 of whom died in the last week. 11 died yesterday, from the reproved number
Last 3-5 days subject to change etc...
That 25 haven't died in a hospital in a long while, but all settings is so much higher every day, seems to fit my theory does it not?
There's also a significant chance it isn't *anyone* on the list.
Sell 'em all.
If Johnson can avoid any blame for any post-Covid and post- Brexit economic damage, and I believe Wales will be caned, particularly post-Brexit, he will pick up a few more seats outside Cardiff. I am sure he has his scapegoats lined up already.
https://web.musicaficionado.com/main/article/Peter_Green_Article
I have a feeling Labour is living on borrowed time in that seat.
I really can’t see what seat they are likely to win outside the Valleys (counting Gower as part of the valleys) even if the boundaries are drawn more generously for them than at present.
Coupled with the exhaustion and staleness of the Labour government in the Bay, and the Tories emerging as the first truly nationwide opposition party since the collapse of the Liberals after 1935, Labour have got big problems.
How many people would really miss them? Truthfully?
If that is indeed the case then, if that trend continues, the hospital deaths will eventually decline to zero (or possibly some very low constant level, corresponding to a remaining background number of cases should the disease not entirely disappear from circulation,) and at about the same time the non-hospital deaths would also then plateau, because a fairly constant number of deaths from natural causes will carry on being attributed to the virus, at least until the frail elderly portion of the cohort that has tested positive in the past has died out?
The blue dotted line has gone from above 30 at the start of the month, to below 10 now. Roughly a reduction of about 75%
The orange dotted line has gone from about 65 to about 35 now in the same time period. Roughly a reduction of just under 50%
Why have we seen a 3/4 reduction in one line, but only about a 1/2 reduction in the other? Well if my theory is right and the orange line is being inflated artificially then that would explain the difference.
I guess at that point they might take the opportunity to “clarify” all the figures.
I see my role in this to come up with data, not answers. I'm not qualified to *create* the answers. That would require a medical degree. I am qualified to ask questions about the numbers.....
Good analysis by Kinnock I would say.
So why is he not higher up in the party?
Specifically with regard to nightclubs, I have no time for them either but then again I'm a stick-in-the-mud fortysomething who's not exactly part of their target demographic. They are popular with a lot of people and, as with the arts, they should be propped up until it is safe for them to resume normal operations. Apart from anything else, since this has all started I've read more than one piece of comment on the nightclubs to the effect that, if the sector is allowed to collapse, the venues are a prime target to be bought up on the cheap and re-opened later by organised crime. This makes sense. They'd be somewhere ideal to ply the naive or reckless young with drugs.
Of course all former Presidents are automatically Emeritus, they all retain the title President until the day they die (and I guess past then too even). Hence Obama's title is still President Obama. Even if Biden retires he'll still be President Biden.
Its a shame that even if he loses the tangerine one will still be President Trump for as long as he's on this earth.
Edit - I have, incidentally, no particular objection to people going to nightclubs and enjoying themselves. But not if it’s going to cause a dangerous disease to run rampant in the population.
Rest of it seemed reasonable to me anyway
I think you overstate Labour's unpopularity in the Bay. That is not to say a rainbow coalition of non-Labour AMs will not form the next Government.
Johnson's Brexit credentials and racial dog whistles play very well to the over 40s here. Johnson's Covid performance is seen as strong from the people I almost rub shoulders with (2 metre distancing). Starmer's performance is seen as poor by comparison (don't ask me why).
As a Johnson skeptic, I assumed the economic chaos to come would do for him in Wales. However, I believe he will get away with it.
Now all in the garden is not rosy for the Conservatives. Sunak will not play as well with the people I meet as Johnson does, and by a Welsh mile!
Exhibit A: there were reports only a couple of nights ago about drunken British tourists rampaging through Magaluf. The locals were apparently outraged. Well, duh! If a key part of your business model revolves around shipping in drunken louts, and you then open your resort back up to drunken louts, then you should not be surprised if the drunken louts you rely on and want to attract behave like drunken louts. With the best will in the world, they aren't going to magically transform into art connoisseurs and ask very politely, in flawless, unaccented Spanish, to be directed to the nearest gallery. Whilst wearing a mask. Now, are they?
BILLY THE KID
Bill Dean & Paul Nelson (and performed by Ry Cooder)
I'll sing you a song about Billy the Kid
I'll sing the record of deeds that he did
Way out in New Mexico a long time ago
When a (G) man's only friend was his his own .44
Now when Billy the Kid was a very young lad
In old Silver City he went to the bad
Way out west with a knife in his hand
At the age of twelve years he killed his first man
Fair Mexican maidens play guitars and sing
Songs about Billy their boy bandit king
Before his young manhood reached its sad end
He'd a notch on his pistol for twenty one men
It was on one black night that poor Billy died
He said to his friends, I'm not satisfied
There's twenty one men that I've put bullets through
And sheriff Pat Garrett's gonna make twenty-two
Well, this is how Billy the Kid met his fate
A big moon was shining and the hour was late
Shot down by Pat Garrett, Silver City's best friend
The poor outlaw's life have reached its sad end
But I would expect a Labour-Plaid coalition next year if only because I cannot see any other route to 30 other than Tory majority (which ain’t happening).
But I can see Tories - most seats in 2021 (albeit it’s not the likeliest outcome) and taking power in 2025-26.
I share your opinion: if it does finally transpire that we can get away with pretty much everything except for packed out nightclubs, then paying for them to stay shut for another six months or a year is a very modest price to pay.
Even if you shut the bars down at 11 people would carry on on their terrace. It’s frustrating to us more elderly locals but that’s how it is. 10,000 people from Madrid on their way to our small town on Friday what On earth could could Go wrong?
Most heads of government look a lot older after a stint in power than the time they've spent in office. But the only one I'm aware who actually developed clinically-diagnosed dementia in office was Wilson (who did then retire). And, as far as I'm aware, there's not a shred of evidence being PM accelerated his dementia
FWIW, my own experience is that dementia usually sets in once someone's stopped being active (eg Thatcher and I think Reagan, but lots of people I know socially)
Is there any evidence the old in office get demented relatively quickly? I'd have said that the evidence from QEII and Benedict XV is that having a real job in extreme old age keeps your brain working.
I know, I know, I live in a parallel universe where Johnson appears to be a catastrophe. But he is working class hero catnip to former Labour blue collar voters.
This is UK wide and top marks to HMG for taking this decision
Even my nearest and dearest would not put my cooking at the top of things they love me for.
Can Biden cope with the demands of the job? Maybe he can now, but can he in 2 years time? If he can't, I hope he realises that and retires with dignity.
Edit: PS you name Thatcher and Reagan and there is evidence for both that mental changes began before they retired.
I wonder if there have been any clusters of cases traced back to illegal raves in this country?
IF Biden is elected, you can bet your sweet bippy that he will NOT be nudged, pushed or persuaded to willingly step down. VERY un-Presidential, and only a cornered rat like Nixon would even consider it.
Look at how Woodrow Wilson clung to office after his stroke or whatever it was. Ditto Winston Churchill.
Would also point to example of Sir Henry Campbell-Bannerman, whom top Liberal Party colleagues Asquith, Grey & Haldane (Relugas House compact) tried to kick upstairs in 1905 when Libs took power after a decade in opposition - they wanted to make C-B an honorary PM with the real power in their hands.
Turned out that Sir Henry was made of sterner stuff than they realized. After discussing the situation with his wife - who told him to man up - he politely refused their kind offer, out-maneuvered them, and lead them and their party to a landslide election triumph in 1906 - the Liberal's last hurrah.
Take the blinkers off!
Wiley is being cancelled, do we support this decision or is he entitled to free speech?
Labour has come to a view on taxation then. This is sure to piss off the left.
Anneliese Dodds: Putting up taxes would not be sensible, we must go for growth