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Err. All the UK lifted the ban and have acted together to close itMexicanpete said:
For goodness sake, Spain was on the radar for 14 days quarantine remaining in place when it was lifted elsewhere (and at the last minute Span). Johnson is behind the 8 ball again.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Of course it isRH1992 said:
But to me this is how the system should be working. Spain reports a spike and we act accordingly and swiftly. If we dithered then we'd be making the same mistakes as at the start of the pandemic.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Most holiday providers have COVID guarantees now but there's always going to be some who lose out, it's a risk you take when you go abroad right now.Philip_Thompson said:
Whack-a-mole is entirely appropriate here. Deal with problems as and when they pop up until they stop popping up.CorrectHorseBattery said:
This is UK wide and top marks to HMG for taking this decision
Take the blinkers off!
No blinkers needex1 -
Why is he an MBE?!CorrectHorseBattery said:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53536471
Wiley is being cancelled, do we support this decision or is he entitled to free speech?0 -
We'll have a vaccine in six months time, and life will then go back to normal. And we'll have - probably - avoided nasty second waves like have been seen in countries that lifted restrictions too rapidly, like Israel or South Africa.state_go_away said:
If we are not careful we will nanny ourselves back into the dark ages.Black_Rook said:
Hmmmm... I think we all well remember that there have been similar concerns about mass gatherings over here as well - notably the great Bournemouth and Lulworth Cove beach panics - but this theory does sound as though it could be plausible nonetheless. Little knots of sunbathers will consist largely of family household groups and aren't going to be interacting with one another. Sounds like there's a lot more socialising going on in this instance.nichomar said:
Let’s start with the temperature, it’s currently 28 there’s no way you are going to sleep anytime soon. Therefore eating in or out for most starts at 9:30 and goes into the early hours. Groups gather in restaurants, bars and on terraces until 4 or 5 in the morning, the young look for something more exciting so in the absence of discos etc just gather in larger groups. It’s holiday time but there are no fiestas, people are getting together for the first time in months, they hug and kiss. Yes many are bloody irresponsible it would not be too difficult to enjoy life with just a little thought but maybe alcohol is to blame. The R number is still below one, the ICU cases very low and the deaths negligible so maybe some are saying ‘what’s the problem’Black_Rook said:
Agree. I've been wondering for the last couple of days, whilst the possible causes of the Spanish spike have been debated, whether nightclubs are a key component - although it could also be that the Spaniards are less reticent about going out generally and have more of a culture of eating out, as a consequence of which they're packing out the bars and restaurants in much higher densities? Though someone who's actually familiar with what conditions are like over there at the moment would be better placed to comment.ydoethur said:
Well, if nightclubs are a key source of transmission, one suggestion is don’t reopen fecking nightclubs.isam said:
What do you think we should do?SouthamObserver said:Spain had a very strict lockdown and a phased return to normality. We could be looking and learning from what is happening there now with Covid's return given that our cycle is a few weeks' behind their one. What are the chances?
How many people would really miss them? Truthfully?
Specifically with regard to nightclubs, I have no time for them either but then again I'm a stick-in-the-mud fortysomething who's not exactly part of their target demographic. They are popular with a lot of people and, as with the arts, they should be propped up until it is safe for them to resume normal operations. Apart from anything else, since this has all started I've read more than one piece of comment on the nightclubs to the effect that, if the sector is allowed to collapse, the venues are a prime target to be bought up on the cheap and re-opened later by organised crime. This makes sense. They'd be somewhere ideal to ply the naive or reckless young with drugs.
Even if you shut the bars down at 11 people would carry on on their terrace. It’s frustrating to us more elderly locals but that’s how it is. 10,000 people from Madrid on their way to our small town on Friday what On earth could could Go wrong?
I wonder if there have been any clusters of cases traced back to illegal raves in this country?1 -
I doubt that. I would expect Labour to regain many - perhaps all - of the seats lost in Wales in 2019. Even if the Tories manage to retain a GB lead of 4% - 5% - compared with 11.7% last time - Labour should regain Bridgend - Delyn - Vale of Clwyd - Clwyd South.Wrexham would be another likely gain. Boundary changes may affect some outcomes , but in the context of a pro- Labour swing of 3% - 4% not very much.Mexicanpete said:
Labour are not very popular in the blue collar seats along the M4 corridor anyway. Boris Johnson by contrast is revered amongst people who considered Brexit to be the way forward.ydoethur said:
I ran a rough calculation based on the likely seats for Wales a few months back.GarethoftheVale2 said:
Yes they are keeping at 650 seats and a 5% threshold. There are 5 protected seats: Orkney and Shetland, Na h-Eileanan an Iar, Ynys Mon, and 2 for Isle of Wight.CorrectHorseBattery said:Can somebody explain the new boundaries as I thought the seat numbers were remaining the same
The main difference with the current boundaries is that Wales loses its over-representation so will likely lose 8 seats. The main winner region is likely to be the South East, which could gain 7 seats.
The new boundaries should benefit the Tories but not as much as before the election. Electoral Calculus' current estimate is Con +6, Lab -3, SNP -2, Plaid - 1 vs 2019.
The boundaries will be based on the electorates from March 2020. So I'm guessing the review will kick off either end of this year or early next year.
I came up with Labour 14, Tory 12, Plaid 2 and a few which were too close to call. With Ynys Môn getting protected status, I’m going to hesitantly put that in the Tory column. I know it’s very close, but it’s 1951 since a sitting MP was defeated there. That leaves three I’m struggling with - two in Carmarthenshire which might go any one of three ways and one in the North.
Any reduction for Wales will hurt Labour pretty badly because the Valleys are their last stronghold and they will inevitably take a pounding.
If Johnson can avoid any blame for any post-Covid and post- Brexit economic damage, and I believe Wales will be caned, particularly post-Brexit, he will pick up a few more seats outside Cardiff. I am sure he has his scapegoats lined up already.0 -
Was under impression many PBers already in dark ages - without help from Covid.state_go_away said:
If we are not careful we will nanny ourselves back into the dark ages.Black_Rook said:
Hmmmm... I think we all well remember that there have been similar concerns about mass gatherings over here as well - notably the great Bournemouth and Lulworth Cove beach panics - but this theory does sound as though it could be plausible nonetheless. Little knots of sunbathers will consist largely of family household groups and aren't going to be interacting with one another. Sounds like there's a lot more socialising going on in this instance.nichomar said:
Let’s start with the temperature, it’s currently 28 there’s no way you are going to sleep anytime soon. Therefore eating in or out for most starts at 9:30 and goes into the early hours. Groups gather in restaurants, bars and on terraces until 4 or 5 in the morning, the young look for something more exciting so in the absence of discos etc just gather in larger groups. It’s holiday time but there are no fiestas, people are getting together for the first time in months, they hug and kiss. Yes many are bloody irresponsible it would not be too difficult to enjoy life with just a little thought but maybe alcohol is to blame. The R number is still below one, the ICU cases very low and the deaths negligible so maybe some are saying ‘what’s the problem’Black_Rook said:
Agree. I've been wondering for the last couple of days, whilst the possible causes of the Spanish spike have been debated, whether nightclubs are a key component - although it could also be that the Spaniards are less reticent about going out generally and have more of a culture of eating out, as a consequence of which they're packing out the bars and restaurants in much higher densities? Though someone who's actually familiar with what conditions are like over there at the moment would be better placed to comment.ydoethur said:
Well, if nightclubs are a key source of transmission, one suggestion is don’t reopen fecking nightclubs.isam said:
What do you think we should do?SouthamObserver said:Spain had a very strict lockdown and a phased return to normality. We could be looking and learning from what is happening there now with Covid's return given that our cycle is a few weeks' behind their one. What are the chances?
How many people would really miss them? Truthfully?
Specifically with regard to nightclubs, I have no time for them either but then again I'm a stick-in-the-mud fortysomething who's not exactly part of their target demographic. They are popular with a lot of people and, as with the arts, they should be propped up until it is safe for them to resume normal operations. Apart from anything else, since this has all started I've read more than one piece of comment on the nightclubs to the effect that, if the sector is allowed to collapse, the venues are a prime target to be bought up on the cheap and re-opened later by organised crime. This makes sense. They'd be somewhere ideal to ply the naive or reckless young with drugs.
Even if you shut the bars down at 11 people would carry on on their terrace. It’s frustrating to us more elderly locals but that’s how it is. 10,000 people from Madrid on their way to our small town on Friday what On earth could could Go wrong?
I wonder if there have been any clusters of cases traced back to illegal raves in this country?0 -
Thanks for this. There are incredible similarities with Syd Barrett's story here ; those who were the most sensitive souls, and had a period of having their drinks spiked with LSD, often seem to have suffered the most negative consequences of hallucinogens. Both he and Barrett seem to have degenerated almost to drifters after these experiences, which they didn't plan or initiate.isam said:.
An incredibly sad story. The Man of the World documentary by the BBC is good. I think it is on iplayer, but no doubt will be shown again now he has sadly passed away. Spent his final years in Leigh-on-Sea I believeWhisperingOracle said:
My wife's family knew Peter Green's younger relatives, apparently. One of that generation of postwar East End Jewish boys drawn to the 'sixties creative industries ; Marc Bolan was another.isam said:RIP Peter Green
So sad. I loved Peter. This week I have been trying to learn Oh Well and Black Magic Woman on the guitar.
I think had you offered him his last twenty five years back in the late 70s/early 80s he wouldn't have believed it possible. It could have been a lot, lot worse.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6GB_c6d_2U
https://web.musicaficionado.com/main/article/Peter_Green_Article
More confident personalities of the era, acting with their own sense of agency, and most importantly not so enormously frightened and unsettled by the experience, seemed to have been the ones sometimes deriving more benefit from it ; and also generally seemed to have returned to the drug only rarely, if at all, afterwards.0 -
Would you support surgeons not wearing masks during surgery? Because the principle is the same: you don't spread your particles far when you breath or cough.state_go_away said:
I thought Spain with all its mask wearing would be safe - are we sure mask wearing does anything?Mexicanpete said:
For goodness sake, Spain was on the radar for 14 days quarantine remaining in place when it was lifted elsewhere (and at the last minute Span). Johnson is behind the 8 ball again.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Of course it isRH1992 said:
But to me this is how the system should be working. Spain reports a spike and we act accordingly and swiftly. If we dithered then we'd be making the same mistakes as at the start of the pandemic.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Most holiday providers have COVID guarantees now but there's always going to be some who lose out, it's a risk you take when you go abroad right now.Philip_Thompson said:
Whack-a-mole is entirely appropriate here. Deal with problems as and when they pop up until they stop popping up.CorrectHorseBattery said:
This is UK wide and top marks to HMG for taking this decision
Take the blinkers off!2 -
Nicola Sturgeon or Boris Johnson?
Don’t make me choose! Ultimately I’d be keen to work with both of them where we can to get problems fixed, especially in a time of national crisis.
Left on suicide watch0 -
Opening the pubs and clubs is currently the issue. I assume the earlier question mark over Spain was reported infection rates, but unlike many experts (some genuine, some only in their own minds) on here, I don't know and that is pure conjecture on my part.state_go_away said:
I thought Spain with all its mask wearing would be safe - are we sure mask wearing does anything?Mexicanpete said:
For goodness sake, Spain was on the radar for 14 days quarantine remaining in place when it was lifted elsewhere (and at the last minute Span). Johnson is behind the 8 ball again.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Of course it isRH1992 said:
But to me this is how the system should be working. Spain reports a spike and we act accordingly and swiftly. If we dithered then we'd be making the same mistakes as at the start of the pandemic.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Most holiday providers have COVID guarantees now but there's always going to be some who lose out, it's a risk you take when you go abroad right now.Philip_Thompson said:
Whack-a-mole is entirely appropriate here. Deal with problems as and when they pop up until they stop popping up.CorrectHorseBattery said:
This is UK wide and top marks to HMG for taking this decision
Take the blinkers off!0 -
From a town known as Wheeling West VirginiaSeaShantyIrish2 said:SONGS OF THE BATTLE GROUND (AND POSSIBLE VP) STATES - NEW MEXICO
BILLY THE KID
Bill Dean & Paul Nelson (and performed by Ry Cooder)
I'll sing you a song about Billy the Kid
I'll sing the record of deeds that he did
Way out in New Mexico a long time ago
When a (G) man's only friend was his his own .44
Now when Billy the Kid was a very young lad
In old Silver City he went to the bad
Way out west with a knife in his hand
At the age of twelve years he killed his first man
Fair Mexican maidens play guitars and sing
Songs about Billy their boy bandit king
Before his young manhood reached its sad end
He'd a notch on his pistol for twenty one men
It was on one black night that poor Billy died
He said to his friends, I'm not satisfied
There's twenty one men that I've put bullets through
And sheriff Pat Garrett's gonna make twenty-two
Well, this is how Billy the Kid met his fate
A big moon was shining and the hour was late
Shot down by Pat Garrett, Silver City's best friend
The poor outlaw's life have reached its sad end
Rode a boy with a six-gun in his hand
And his daring life of crime
Made him a legend in his time
East and West of the Rio Grande
Well he started with a bank in Colorado
In the pocket of his vest, a Colt he hid
And his age and his size took the teller by surprise
And word spread of Billy the Kid
Well he never traveled heavy
Yes, he always rode alone
And he soon put other older guns to shame
And he never had a sweetheart
And he never had a home
But the cowboy and the rancher knew his name
Well he robbed his way from Utah to Oklahoma
And the law just could not seem to track him down
And it served his legend well
For the folks they'd love to tell 'bout when Billy the Kid came to town
Well one cold day a posse captured Billy
And the judge said "String 'I'm up for what he did!"
And the cowboys and their kin like the sea, came pourin' in to watch the hangin' of Billy the Kid
Well he never traveled heavy
Yes, he always rode alone
And he soon put other older guns to shame
And he never had a sweetheart
But he finally found a home
Underneath the boot hill grave that bears his name
From a town known as Oyster Bay, Long Island
Rode a boy with a six-pack in his hand
And his daring life of crime
Made him a legend in his time
East and West of the Rio Grande
Billy Joel ~ The Ballad of the Billy the Kid0 -
for all the good it has done Spain . Masks do sod all because most people (especially those who dont want to wear them do not use them properly. All that disgusting garbage as well .rcs1000 said:
Would you support surgeons not wearing masks during surgery? Because the principle is the same: you don't spread your particles far when you breath or cough.state_go_away said:
I thought Spain with all its mask wearing would be safe - are we sure mask wearing does anything?Mexicanpete said:
For goodness sake, Spain was on the radar for 14 days quarantine remaining in place when it was lifted elsewhere (and at the last minute Span). Johnson is behind the 8 ball again.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Of course it isRH1992 said:
But to me this is how the system should be working. Spain reports a spike and we act accordingly and swiftly. If we dithered then we'd be making the same mistakes as at the start of the pandemic.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Most holiday providers have COVID guarantees now but there's always going to be some who lose out, it's a risk you take when you go abroad right now.Philip_Thompson said:
Whack-a-mole is entirely appropriate here. Deal with problems as and when they pop up until they stop popping up.CorrectHorseBattery said:
This is UK wide and top marks to HMG for taking this decision
Take the blinkers off!0 -
The Tories will have done quite a bit of putting up taxes by the time Labour get back into power.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/anneliese-dodds-putting-up-taxes-would-not-be-sensible-we-must-go-for-growth-tmjccfb8p
Labour has come to a view on taxation then. This is sure to piss off the left.
Anneliese Dodds: Putting up taxes would not be sensible, we must go for growth0 -
Why do you perceive 3-4%?justin124 said:
I doubt that. I would expect Labour to regain many - perhaps all - of the seats lost in Wales in 2019. Even if the Tories manage to retain a GB lead of 4% - 5% - compared with 11.7% last time - Labour should regain Bridgend - Delyn - Vale of Clwyd - Clwyd South.Wrexham would be another likely gain. Boundary changes may affect some outcomes , but in the context of a pro- Labour swing of 3% - 4% not very much.Mexicanpete said:
Labour are not very popular in the blue collar seats along the M4 corridor anyway. Boris Johnson by contrast is revered amongst people who considered Brexit to be the way forward.ydoethur said:
I ran a rough calculation based on the likely seats for Wales a few months back.GarethoftheVale2 said:
Yes they are keeping at 650 seats and a 5% threshold. There are 5 protected seats: Orkney and Shetland, Na h-Eileanan an Iar, Ynys Mon, and 2 for Isle of Wight.CorrectHorseBattery said:Can somebody explain the new boundaries as I thought the seat numbers were remaining the same
The main difference with the current boundaries is that Wales loses its over-representation so will likely lose 8 seats. The main winner region is likely to be the South East, which could gain 7 seats.
The new boundaries should benefit the Tories but not as much as before the election. Electoral Calculus' current estimate is Con +6, Lab -3, SNP -2, Plaid - 1 vs 2019.
The boundaries will be based on the electorates from March 2020. So I'm guessing the review will kick off either end of this year or early next year.
I came up with Labour 14, Tory 12, Plaid 2 and a few which were too close to call. With Ynys Môn getting protected status, I’m going to hesitantly put that in the Tory column. I know it’s very close, but it’s 1951 since a sitting MP was defeated there. That leaves three I’m struggling with - two in Carmarthenshire which might go any one of three ways and one in the North.
Any reduction for Wales will hurt Labour pretty badly because the Valleys are their last stronghold and they will inevitably take a pounding.
If Johnson can avoid any blame for any post-Covid and post- Brexit economic damage, and I believe Wales will be caned, particularly post-Brexit, he will pick up a few more seats outside Cardiff. I am sure he has his scapegoats lined up already.
We must not forget the analysis posted here on PB that the red wall is moving back to Labour more than the rest of the country, I suppose not surprising if they are more naturally Labour anyway and many of the millions that stayed at home might not feel so inclined again0 -
Yes, both fascinating stories. At least PG came back to some kind of normality in his later years. To be fair though, he loved the drugs - in the MOTW doc he doesn't really seem to regret taking LSD at all!WhisperingOracle said:
Thanks for this. There are incredible similarities with Syd Barrett's story here ; those who were the most sensitive souls, and had a period of having their drinks spiked with LSD, often seem to have suffered the most negative consequences of hallucinogens. Both he and Barrett seem to have degenerated almost to drifters after these experiences, which they didn't plan or initiate.isam said:.
An incredibly sad story. The Man of the World documentary by the BBC is good. I think it is on iplayer, but no doubt will be shown again now he has sadly passed away. Spent his final years in Leigh-on-Sea I believeWhisperingOracle said:
My wife's family knew Peter Green's younger relatives, apparently. One of that generation of postwar East End Jewish boys drawn to the 'sixties creative industries ; Marc Bolan was another.isam said:RIP Peter Green
So sad. I loved Peter. This week I have been trying to learn Oh Well and Black Magic Woman on the guitar.
I think had you offered him his last twenty five years back in the late 70s/early 80s he wouldn't have believed it possible. It could have been a lot, lot worse.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6GB_c6d_2U
https://web.musicaficionado.com/main/article/Peter_Green_Article
More confident personalities of the era, acting with their own sense of agency, and most importantly not so enormously frightened and unsettled by the experience, seemed to have been the ones quite often deriving more benefit from it, and also generally only rarely returning to the drug afterwards.0 -
This is a bitter blow to Spain's tourist industry0
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I hate to get all HYFUD, but the last poll that was taken doesn't seem to show thatMexicanpete said:
The Johnson factor may make Conservatives most seats next year.ydoethur said:
I don’t know. My impression is their support is patchy. I think Labour are in advanced and possibly terminal decay in the north outside Bangor, while in Dyfed-Powys they’ve been weak for years.Mexicanpete said:I think you overstate Labour's unpopularity in the Bay. That is not to say a rainbow coalition of non-Labour AMs will not form the next Government.
But I would expect a Labour-Plaid coalition next year if only because I cannot see any other route to 30 other than Tory majority (which ain’t happening).
But I can see Tories - most seats in 2021 (albeit it’s not the likeliest outcome) and taking power in 2025-26.
I know, I know, I live in a parallel universe where Johnson appears to be a catastrophe. But he is working class hero catnip to former Labour blue collar voters.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1271153920941928451?s=200 -
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Labour up to 38% again, Tories down to 42%.
Labour still not hit 40% consistently, still more room to grow0 -
Conservative lead falls back to 4 points short lived boost to the government’s rating comes to an end
The Conservatives have lost two points while Labour have gained two, taking the overall Tory lead from 8 points to 4. The Lib Dems and Greens remain unchanged on last week.
Approval of the government’s handling of the crisis drops
Last week the government’s net approval rating for the handling of the Coronavirus crisis was its most positive rating since mid-May, at a net approval of -5. However, this week approval worsened and has now dropped to a net approval of -15. Disapproval rose from 43% last week to 46% this week, while approval has fallen from 38% last week to 32% this week.
Boris Johnson’s approval rating remains underwater with 36% approving and 45% disapproving. His net rating had dropped from -4 last week to -8 this week.
Keir Starmer remains firmly in positive territory and fairly stable compared to last week. 44% approve of his job performance, while 22% disapprove. His net rating has increase from +20 last week to +22 this week. .0 -
yes exactly - causes untold misery for all that rely on it and obviously stops people having a deserved break as well .Big_G_NorthWales said:This is a bitter blow to Spain's tourist industry
0 -
You are talking rot, the main reason for the rise in infections is because the kids won’t wear them in social situations unless the police are physically present. I don’t know where you are getting your information input on spain,state_go_away said:
for all the good it has done Spain . Masks do sod all because most people (especially those who dont want to wear them do not use them properly. All that disgusting garbage as well .rcs1000 said:
Would you support surgeons not wearing masks during surgery? Because the principle is the same: you don't spread your particles far when you breath or cough.state_go_away said:
I thought Spain with all its mask wearing would be safe - are we sure mask wearing does anything?Mexicanpete said:
For goodness sake, Spain was on the radar for 14 days quarantine remaining in place when it was lifted elsewhere (and at the last minute Span). Johnson is behind the 8 ball again.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Of course it isRH1992 said:
But to me this is how the system should be working. Spain reports a spike and we act accordingly and swiftly. If we dithered then we'd be making the same mistakes as at the start of the pandemic.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Most holiday providers have COVID guarantees now but there's always going to be some who lose out, it's a risk you take when you go abroad right now.Philip_Thompson said:
Whack-a-mole is entirely appropriate here. Deal with problems as and when they pop up until they stop popping up.CorrectHorseBattery said:
This is UK wide and top marks to HMG for taking this decision
Take the blinkers off!2 -
Starmer increasing his rating, Johnson dropped 4 points0
-
The government’s handling of the Coronavirus crisis drops from a net approval of -5 to a
net approval of -15
Big fall0 -
But is it an outlier? More polls to come0
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100 days to go until the US presidential election.
At current rates the US will have recorded 250,000 covid-19 deaths by then.
0 -
Starmer has such a high neither/don't know rating, many remain unconvinced either way - I wonder if EHRC/kicking Corbyn out will change those ratings0
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Would be interested in any info on how many Brits have come out to Spain, on the ground in our residential area it’s very low.state_go_away said:
yes exactly - causes untold misery for all that rely on it and obviously stops people having a deserved break as well .Big_G_NorthWales said:This is a bitter blow to Spain's tourist industry
0 -
yes to do with making everyone wear a mask when in a shop- big draconian law with no effect - could half see the logic if pubs etc were shut but just looks like weak governmentCorrectHorseBattery said:The government’s handling of the Coronavirus crisis drops from a net approval of -5 to a
net approval of -15
Big fall1 -
On the question of who would be the best prime minister, Johnson and Starmer remain close with 35% choosing the incumbent, 33% choosing the Labour leader and 16% answering “none of these”.0
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Those approval ratings would be very siginificant if held in the run-up to a GE.CorrectHorseBattery said:Conservative lead falls back to 4 points short lived boost to the government’s rating comes to an end
The Conservatives have lost two points while Labour have gained two, taking the overall Tory lead from 8 points to 4. The Lib Dems and Greens remain unchanged on last week.
Approval of the government’s handling of the crisis drops
Last week the government’s net approval rating for the handling of the Coronavirus crisis was its most positive rating since mid-May, at a net approval of -5. However, this week approval worsened and has now dropped to a net approval of -15. Disapproval rose from 43% last week to 46% this week, while approval has fallen from 38% last week to 32% this week.
Boris Johnson’s approval rating remains underwater with 36% approving and 45% disapproving. His net rating had dropped from -4 last week to -8 this week.
Keir Starmer remains firmly in positive territory and fairly stable compared to last week. 44% approve of his job performance, while 22% disapprove. His net rating has increase from +20 last week to +22 this week. .1 -
Interesting times with Spain. One of my team is Spanish and is home with her family in Murcia. Due back in a week - ok so like all of us we've been mainly WFH but could be complicated. As for Mrs RP and the kids "unless easyJet cancel the flights we're going". Which is fair. 2 weeks self-isolation not a major problem when she's a TA and its the holidays!
What it really does reinforce to me is that this bloody virus isn't going away fast and the "get back to work and spending money you plebs" policy from the government is going to increasingly backfire - badly - as it increasingly sounds desperate and flying in the face of the obvious. If nothing else having to wear masks whilst shopping really reinforces things aren't remotely normal.1 -
BJ song clearly NOT about historic William Bonney aka Billy the Kid. Who was born in New York City (Manhattan) - NOT Wheeling, West Virginia (which was still in VA when WB was born). Who was shot to death - NOT hanged - by Pat Garrett; the Kid's reputed last words were "¿Quién es? ¿Quién es?" ("Who is it? Who is it?")Philip_Thompson said:
From a town known as Wheeling West VirginiaSeaShantyIrish2 said:SONGS OF THE BATTLE GROUND (AND POSSIBLE VP) STATES - NEW MEXICO
BILLY THE KID
Bill Dean & Paul Nelson (and performed by Ry Cooder)
I'll sing you a song about Billy the Kid
I'll sing the record of deeds that he did
Way out in New Mexico a long time ago
When a (G) man's only friend was his his own .44
Now when Billy the Kid was a very young lad
In old Silver City he went to the bad
Way out west with a knife in his hand
At the age of twelve years he killed his first man
Fair Mexican maidens play guitars and sing
Songs about Billy their boy bandit king
Before his young manhood reached its sad end
He'd a notch on his pistol for twenty one men
It was on one black night that poor Billy died
He said to his friends, I'm not satisfied
There's twenty one men that I've put bullets through
And sheriff Pat Garrett's gonna make twenty-two
Well, this is how Billy the Kid met his fate
A big moon was shining and the hour was late
Shot down by Pat Garrett, Silver City's best friend
The poor outlaw's life have reached its sad end
Rode a boy with a six-gun in his hand
And his daring life of crime
Made him a legend in his time
East and West of the Rio Grande
Well he started with a bank in Colorado
In the pocket of his vest, a Colt he hid
And his age and his size took the teller by surprise
And word spread of Billy the Kid
Well he never traveled heavy
Yes, he always rode alone
And he soon put other older guns to shame
And he never had a sweetheart
And he never had a home
But the cowboy and the rancher knew his name
Well he robbed his way from Utah to Oklahoma
And the law just could not seem to track him down
And it served his legend well
For the folks they'd love to tell 'bout when Billy the Kid came to town
Well one cold day a posse captured Billy
And the judge said "String 'I'm up for what he did!"
And the cowboys and their kin like the sea, came pourin' in to watch the hangin' of Billy the Kid
Well he never traveled heavy
Yes, he always rode alone
And he soon put other older guns to shame
And he never had a sweetheart
But he finally found a home
Underneath the boot hill grave that bears his name
From a town known as Oyster Bay, Long Island
Rode a boy with a six-pack in his hand
And his daring life of crime
Made him a legend in his time
East and West of the Rio Grande
Billy Joel ~ The Ballad of the Billy the Kid
As for the "boy" from "Oyster Bay, Long Island" that sounds like Theodore Roosevelt, esp. IF you consider imperialism, racisim & war-mongering crimes.0 -
Johnson is a hero to some working class voters in the same way that many people in the East End of London liked the Kray twins.Mexicanpete said:
The Johnson factor may make Conservatives most seats next year.ydoethur said:
I don’t know. My impression is their support is patchy. I think Labour are in advanced and possibly terminal decay in the north outside Bangor, while in Dyfed-Powys they’ve been weak for years.Mexicanpete said:I think you overstate Labour's unpopularity in the Bay. That is not to say a rainbow coalition of non-Labour AMs will not form the next Government.
But I would expect a Labour-Plaid coalition next year if only because I cannot see any other route to 30 other than Tory majority (which ain’t happening).
But I can see Tories - most seats in 2021 (albeit it’s not the likeliest outcome) and taking power in 2025-26.
I know, I know, I live in a parallel universe where Johnson appears to be a catastrophe. But he is working class hero catnip to former Labour blue collar voters.2 -
It does help - most of the outbreaks are occurring in situations where masks are not worn - parties, family reunions, discos, and some among agricultural workers living in close proximity.state_go_away said:
I thought Spain with all its mask wearing would be safe - are we sure mask wearing does anything?Mexicanpete said:
For goodness sake, Spain was on the radar for 14 days quarantine remaining in place when it was lifted elsewhere (and at the last minute Span). Johnson is behind the 8 ball again.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Of course it isRH1992 said:
But to me this is how the system should be working. Spain reports a spike and we act accordingly and swiftly. If we dithered then we'd be making the same mistakes as at the start of the pandemic.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Most holiday providers have COVID guarantees now but there's always going to be some who lose out, it's a risk you take when you go abroad right now.Philip_Thompson said:
Whack-a-mole is entirely appropriate here. Deal with problems as and when they pop up until they stop popping up.CorrectHorseBattery said:
This is UK wide and top marks to HMG for taking this decision
Take the blinkers off!1 -
0
-
I live near Bridgend, and I would have thought you are right, particularly with the fallout from the closure of the engine plant, but WAG rather than Johnson are taking the hit on that.justin124 said:
I doubt that. I would expect Labour to regain many - perhaps all - of the seats lost in Wales in 2019. Even if the Tories manage to retain a GB lead of 4% - 5% - compared with 11.7% last time - Labour should regain Bridgend - Delyn - Vale of Clwyd - Clwyd South.Wrexham would be another likely gain. Boundary changes may affect some outcomes , but in the context of a pro- Labour swing of 3% - 4% not very much.Mexicanpete said:
Labour are not very popular in the blue collar seats along the M4 corridor anyway. Boris Johnson by contrast is revered amongst people who considered Brexit to be the way forward.ydoethur said:
I ran a rough calculation based on the likely seats for Wales a few months back.GarethoftheVale2 said:
Yes they are keeping at 650 seats and a 5% threshold. There are 5 protected seats: Orkney and Shetland, Na h-Eileanan an Iar, Ynys Mon, and 2 for Isle of Wight.CorrectHorseBattery said:Can somebody explain the new boundaries as I thought the seat numbers were remaining the same
The main difference with the current boundaries is that Wales loses its over-representation so will likely lose 8 seats. The main winner region is likely to be the South East, which could gain 7 seats.
The new boundaries should benefit the Tories but not as much as before the election. Electoral Calculus' current estimate is Con +6, Lab -3, SNP -2, Plaid - 1 vs 2019.
The boundaries will be based on the electorates from March 2020. So I'm guessing the review will kick off either end of this year or early next year.
I came up with Labour 14, Tory 12, Plaid 2 and a few which were too close to call. With Ynys Môn getting protected status, I’m going to hesitantly put that in the Tory column. I know it’s very close, but it’s 1951 since a sitting MP was defeated there. That leaves three I’m struggling with - two in Carmarthenshire which might go any one of three ways and one in the North.
Any reduction for Wales will hurt Labour pretty badly because the Valleys are their last stronghold and they will inevitably take a pounding.
If Johnson can avoid any blame for any post-Covid and post- Brexit economic damage, and I believe Wales will be caned, particularly post-Brexit, he will pick up a few more seats outside Cardiff. I am sure he has his scapegoats lined up already.
Labour have a very frosty relationship with the TV broadcast media here in Wales. Local BBC news is very hostile. Drakeford's stock has risen through Covid, but he and the Assembly Government are compared poorly against Johnson's performance, particularly in relation to the "late" opening of retail and hospitality sectors. Still no mandatory mask wearing in Wales, so Drakeford and Gething are being hammered in the media (rightly?) for that.
Johnson is an enigma here in Wales. Historically the Welsh were hostile to English Tory Toffs, but Johnson seems to transcend that.0 -
Lol - annelise backing boris!CorrectHorseBattery said:https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/anneliese-dodds-putting-up-taxes-would-not-be-sensible-we-must-go-for-growth-tmjccfb8p
Labour has come to a view on taxation then. This is sure to piss off the left.
Anneliese Dodds: Putting up taxes would not be sensible, we must go for growth0 -
"If nothing else having to wear masks whilst shopping really reinforces things aren't remotely normal."RochdalePioneers said:Interesting times with Spain. One of my team is Spanish and is home with her family in Murcia. Due back in a week - ok so like all of us we've been mainly WFH but could be complicated. As for Mrs RP and the kids "unless easyJet cancel the flights we're going". Which is fair. 2 weeks self-isolation not a major problem when she's a TA and its the holidays!
What it really does reinforce to me is that this bloody virus isn't going away fast and the "get back to work and spending money you plebs" policy from the government is going to increasingly backfire - badly - as it increasingly sounds desperate and flying in the face of the obvious. If nothing else having to wear masks whilst shopping really reinforces things aren't remotely normal.
That's why they introduced it imho. Nothing to do with reducing transmission in itself.0 -
Comparable villainy in my book!justin124 said:
Johnson is a hero to some working class voters in the same way that many people in the East End of London liked the Kray twins.Mexicanpete said:
The Johnson factor may make Conservatives most seats next year.ydoethur said:
I don’t know. My impression is their support is patchy. I think Labour are in advanced and possibly terminal decay in the north outside Bangor, while in Dyfed-Powys they’ve been weak for years.Mexicanpete said:I think you overstate Labour's unpopularity in the Bay. That is not to say a rainbow coalition of non-Labour AMs will not form the next Government.
But I would expect a Labour-Plaid coalition next year if only because I cannot see any other route to 30 other than Tory majority (which ain’t happening).
But I can see Tories - most seats in 2021 (albeit it’s not the likeliest outcome) and taking power in 2025-26.
I know, I know, I live in a parallel universe where Johnson appears to be a catastrophe. But he is working class hero catnip to former Labour blue collar voters.0 -
Yes strikingly similar stories.WhisperingOracle said:
Thanks for this. There are incredible similarities with Syd Barrett's story here ; those who were the most sensitive souls, and had a period of having their drinks spiked with LSD, often seem to have suffered the most negative consequences of hallucinogens. Both he and Barrett seem to have degenerated almost to drifters after these experiences, which they didn't plan or initiate.isam said:.
An incredibly sad story. The Man of the World documentary by the BBC is good. I think it is on iplayer, but no doubt will be shown again now he has sadly passed away. Spent his final years in Leigh-on-Sea I believeWhisperingOracle said:
My wife's family knew Peter Green's younger relatives, apparently. One of that generation of postwar East End Jewish boys drawn to the 'sixties creative industries ; Marc Bolan was another.isam said:RIP Peter Green
So sad. I loved Peter. This week I have been trying to learn Oh Well and Black Magic Woman on the guitar.
I think had you offered him his last twenty five years back in the late 70s/early 80s he wouldn't have believed it possible. It could have been a lot, lot worse.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6GB_c6d_2U
https://web.musicaficionado.com/main/article/Peter_Green_Article
More confident personalities of the era, acting with their own sense of agency, and most importantly not so enormously frightened and unsettled by the experience, seemed to have been the ones sometimes deriving more benefit from it ; and also generally seemed to have returned to the drug only rarely, if at all, afterwards.
And in both cases following the demise of the talented but vulnerable founding member the bands went on to enormous commercial success.1 -
Seems like a city shrewdie... who bankrolled Ed MilibandCorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
Murcia seems to be suffering from having such a low initial wave of infections, not scientific but a possibility. Whereabouts is she or did you mean Murcia city?RochdalePioneers said:Interesting times with Spain. One of my team is Spanish and is home with her family in Murcia. Due back in a week - ok so like all of us we've been mainly WFH but could be complicated. As for Mrs RP and the kids "unless easyJet cancel the flights we're going". Which is fair. 2 weeks self-isolation not a major problem when she's a TA and its the holidays!
What it really does reinforce to me is that this bloody virus isn't going away fast and the "get back to work and spending money you plebs" policy from the government is going to increasingly backfire - badly - as it increasingly sounds desperate and flying in the face of the obvious. If nothing else having to wear masks whilst shopping really reinforces things aren't remotely normal.0 -
I find it hard to imagine a President that has not managed to inspire anyone along the way.
Trump's an idiot appealing to idiots. Biden's an idiot appealing to those that see through him.
(Sweeping generalities here - Trump supporters are clearly not all idiots for example)0 -
Interesting how this Spanish position will impact on the European and Europa cup games due in August0
-
Mrs RP and the childs going over to Alicante next Sunday. The way her dad has described what they can and can't do whilst out there I'm not sure there is much of a tourist industry to miss any Brits who choose not to travel.state_go_away said:
yes exactly - causes untold misery for all that rely on it and obviously stops people having a deserved break as well .Big_G_NorthWales said:This is a bitter blow to Spain's tourist industry
0 -
ie you need herd immunity - no point in draconian measures because it has to go through a populations sometimenichomar said:
Murcia seems to be suffering from having such a low initial wave of infections, not scientific but a possibility. Whereabouts is she or did you mean Murcia city?RochdalePioneers said:Interesting times with Spain. One of my team is Spanish and is home with her family in Murcia. Due back in a week - ok so like all of us we've been mainly WFH but could be complicated. As for Mrs RP and the kids "unless easyJet cancel the flights we're going". Which is fair. 2 weeks self-isolation not a major problem when she's a TA and its the holidays!
What it really does reinforce to me is that this bloody virus isn't going away fast and the "get back to work and spending money you plebs" policy from the government is going to increasingly backfire - badly - as it increasingly sounds desperate and flying in the face of the obvious. If nothing else having to wear masks whilst shopping really reinforces things aren't remotely normal.0 -
I'm not fond of the restrictions under which we currently labour either (and I think we could still do with better evidence on masks,) but it seems not unreasonable to conclude that the solution to keeping a lid on this highly infectious disease lies somewhere between sitting in our houses the entire time and carrying on as if nothing had happened. The only question is how much we can get away with.state_go_away said:
If we are not careful we will nanny ourselves back into the dark ages.Black_Rook said:
Hmmmm... I think we all well remember that there have been similar concerns about mass gatherings over here as well - notably the great Bournemouth and Lulworth Cove beach panics - but this theory does sound as though it could be plausible nonetheless. Little knots of sunbathers will consist largely of family household groups and aren't going to be interacting with one another. Sounds like there's a lot more socialising going on in this instance.nichomar said:
Let’s start with the temperature, it’s currently 28 there’s no way you are going to sleep anytime soon. Therefore eating in or out for most starts at 9:30 and goes into the early hours. Groups gather in restaurants, bars and on terraces until 4 or 5 in the morning, the young look for something more exciting so in the absence of discos etc just gather in larger groups. It’s holiday time but there are no fiestas, people are getting together for the first time in months, they hug and kiss. Yes many are bloody irresponsible it would not be too difficult to enjoy life with just a little thought but maybe alcohol is to blame. The R number is still below one, the ICU cases very low and the deaths negligible so maybe some are saying ‘what’s the problem’Black_Rook said:
Agree. I've been wondering for the last couple of days, whilst the possible causes of the Spanish spike have been debated, whether nightclubs are a key component - although it could also be that the Spaniards are less reticent about going out generally and have more of a culture of eating out, as a consequence of which they're packing out the bars and restaurants in much higher densities? Though someone who's actually familiar with what conditions are like over there at the moment would be better placed to comment.ydoethur said:
Well, if nightclubs are a key source of transmission, one suggestion is don’t reopen fecking nightclubs.isam said:
What do you think we should do?SouthamObserver said:Spain had a very strict lockdown and a phased return to normality. We could be looking and learning from what is happening there now with Covid's return given that our cycle is a few weeks' behind their one. What are the chances?
How many people would really miss them? Truthfully?
Specifically with regard to nightclubs, I have no time for them either but then again I'm a stick-in-the-mud fortysomething who's not exactly part of their target demographic. They are popular with a lot of people and, as with the arts, they should be propped up until it is safe for them to resume normal operations. Apart from anything else, since this has all started I've read more than one piece of comment on the nightclubs to the effect that, if the sector is allowed to collapse, the venues are a prime target to be bought up on the cheap and re-opened later by organised crime. This makes sense. They'd be somewhere ideal to ply the naive or reckless young with drugs.
Even if you shut the bars down at 11 people would carry on on their terrace. It’s frustrating to us more elderly locals but that’s how it is. 10,000 people from Madrid on their way to our small town on Friday what On earth could could Go wrong?
I wonder if there have been any clusters of cases traced back to illegal raves in this country?
The Government's approach appears to be working at the moment, but it also seems appropriate to look at what is happening in other countries to try to preempt any future problems. Frankly, if it turns out at the end of all this that everything can open back up except nightclubs, then that doesn't seem like such a bad result.0 -
I am well aware of the red wall analysis but the evidence there is far from clear. Tonight's Opinium poll shows a pro- Labour swing of almost 4% since December 2019. Were that to be the outcome of the next election across GB, I see little chance of Labour failing to recover ground lost in Wales under Corbyn in 2019.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Why do you perceive 3-4%?justin124 said:
I doubt that. I would expect Labour to regain many - perhaps all - of the seats lost in Wales in 2019. Even if the Tories manage to retain a GB lead of 4% - 5% - compared with 11.7% last time - Labour should regain Bridgend - Delyn - Vale of Clwyd - Clwyd South.Wrexham would be another likely gain. Boundary changes may affect some outcomes , but in the context of a pro- Labour swing of 3% - 4% not very much.Mexicanpete said:
Labour are not very popular in the blue collar seats along the M4 corridor anyway. Boris Johnson by contrast is revered amongst people who considered Brexit to be the way forward.ydoethur said:
I ran a rough calculation based on the likely seats for Wales a few months back.GarethoftheVale2 said:
Yes they are keeping at 650 seats and a 5% threshold. There are 5 protected seats: Orkney and Shetland, Na h-Eileanan an Iar, Ynys Mon, and 2 for Isle of Wight.CorrectHorseBattery said:Can somebody explain the new boundaries as I thought the seat numbers were remaining the same
The main difference with the current boundaries is that Wales loses its over-representation so will likely lose 8 seats. The main winner region is likely to be the South East, which could gain 7 seats.
The new boundaries should benefit the Tories but not as much as before the election. Electoral Calculus' current estimate is Con +6, Lab -3, SNP -2, Plaid - 1 vs 2019.
The boundaries will be based on the electorates from March 2020. So I'm guessing the review will kick off either end of this year or early next year.
I came up with Labour 14, Tory 12, Plaid 2 and a few which were too close to call. With Ynys Môn getting protected status, I’m going to hesitantly put that in the Tory column. I know it’s very close, but it’s 1951 since a sitting MP was defeated there. That leaves three I’m struggling with - two in Carmarthenshire which might go any one of three ways and one in the North.
Any reduction for Wales will hurt Labour pretty badly because the Valleys are their last stronghold and they will inevitably take a pounding.
If Johnson can avoid any blame for any post-Covid and post- Brexit economic damage, and I believe Wales will be caned, particularly post-Brexit, he will pick up a few more seats outside Cardiff. I am sure he has his scapegoats lined up already.
We must not forget the analysis posted here on PB that the red wall is moving back to Labour more than the rest of the country, I suppose not surprising if they are more naturally Labour anyway and many of the millions that stayed at home might not feel so inclined again1 -
Armada II is off as well.Big_G_NorthWales said:Interesting how this Spanish position will impact on the European and Europa cup games due in August
0 -
This is disappointing. I would have thought most people are exercising more than before.
"The public has been snacking more in lockdown and, despite increases in sales of bikes and exercise equipment, overall activity levels appear to have dropped compared to before the pandemic"
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-07-24/experts-warn-over-huge-risk-of-covid-death-in-obese-people-as-gyms-reopen0 -
Mexicanpete said:
Comparable villainy in my book!justin124 said:
Johnson is a hero to some working class voters in the same way that many people in the East End of London liked the Kray twins.Mexicanpete said:
The Johnson factor may make Conservatives most seats next year.ydoethur said:
I don’t know. My impression is their support is patchy. I think Labour are in advanced and possibly terminal decay in the north outside Bangor, while in Dyfed-Powys they’ve been weak for years.Mexicanpete said:I think you overstate Labour's unpopularity in the Bay. That is not to say a rainbow coalition of non-Labour AMs will not form the next Government.
But I would expect a Labour-Plaid coalition next year if only because I cannot see any other route to 30 other than Tory majority (which ain’t happening).
But I can see Tories - most seats in 2021 (albeit it’s not the likeliest outcome) and taking power in 2025-26.
I know, I know, I live in a parallel universe where Johnson appears to be a catastrophe. But he is working class hero catnip to former Labour blue collar voters.Mexicanpete said:
Comparable villainy in my book!justin124 said:
Johnson is a hero to some working class voters in the same way that many people in the East End of London liked the Kray twins.Mexicanpete said:
The Johnson factor may make Conservatives most seats next year.ydoethur said:
I don’t know. My impression is their support is patchy. I think Labour are in advanced and possibly terminal decay in the north outside Bangor, while in Dyfed-Powys they’ve been weak for years.Mexicanpete said:I think you overstate Labour's unpopularity in the Bay. That is not to say a rainbow coalition of non-Labour AMs will not form the next Government.
But I would expect a Labour-Plaid coalition next year if only because I cannot see any other route to 30 other than Tory majority (which ain’t happening).
But I can see Tories - most seats in 2021 (albeit it’s not the likeliest outcome) and taking power in 2025-26.
I know, I know, I live in a parallel universe where Johnson appears to be a catastrophe. But he is working class hero catnip to former Labour blue collar voters.
ReallyMexicanpete said:
Comparable villainy in my book!justin124 said:
Johnson is a hero to some working class voters in the same way that many people in the East End of London liked the Kray twins.Mexicanpete said:
The Johnson factor may make Conservatives most seats next year.ydoethur said:
I don’t know. My impression is their support is patchy. I think Labour are in advanced and possibly terminal decay in the north outside Bangor, while in Dyfed-Powys they’ve been weak for years.Mexicanpete said:I think you overstate Labour's unpopularity in the Bay. That is not to say a rainbow coalition of non-Labour AMs will not form the next Government.
But I would expect a Labour-Plaid coalition next year if only because I cannot see any other route to 30 other than Tory majority (which ain’t happening).
But I can see Tories - most seats in 2021 (albeit it’s not the likeliest outcome) and taking power in 2025-26.
I know, I know, I live in a parallel universe where Johnson appears to be a catastrophe. But he is working class hero catnip to former Labour blue collar voters.0 -
Don't get this whole hedge manager business - who'd have thought there was quite SO much money in supervising shrubbery?CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
I used to be a big fan of early Floyd ft Syd, Piper at the Gates of Dawn, but now it sounds like absolute nonsense. Peter Green, in contrast, was a serious musician, and his music with Fleetwood Mac still sounds fantastic todaykinabalu said:
Yes strikingly similar stories.WhisperingOracle said:
Thanks for this. There are incredible similarities with Syd Barrett's story here ; those who were the most sensitive souls, and had a period of having their drinks spiked with LSD, often seem to have suffered the most negative consequences of hallucinogens. Both he and Barrett seem to have degenerated almost to drifters after these experiences, which they didn't plan or initiate.isam said:.
An incredibly sad story. The Man of the World documentary by the BBC is good. I think it is on iplayer, but no doubt will be shown again now he has sadly passed away. Spent his final years in Leigh-on-Sea I believeWhisperingOracle said:
My wife's family knew Peter Green's younger relatives, apparently. One of that generation of postwar East End Jewish boys drawn to the 'sixties creative industries ; Marc Bolan was another.isam said:RIP Peter Green
So sad. I loved Peter. This week I have been trying to learn Oh Well and Black Magic Woman on the guitar.
I think had you offered him his last twenty five years back in the late 70s/early 80s he wouldn't have believed it possible. It could have been a lot, lot worse.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6GB_c6d_2U
https://web.musicaficionado.com/main/article/Peter_Green_Article
More confident personalities of the era, acting with their own sense of agency, and most importantly not so enormously frightened and unsettled by the experience, seemed to have been the ones sometimes deriving more benefit from it ; and also generally seemed to have returned to the drug only rarely, if at all, afterwards.
And in both cases following the demise of the talented but vulnerable founding member the bands went on to enormous commercial success.1 -
Good point. My anecdotal antenna makes me nervous that the Conservatives are still in the ascent as your poll suggests. I just don't see where the improvement for Labour comes from.CatMan said:
I hate to get all HYFUD, but the last poll that was taken doesn't seem to show thatMexicanpete said:
The Johnson factor may make Conservatives most seats next year.ydoethur said:
I don’t know. My impression is their support is patchy. I think Labour are in advanced and possibly terminal decay in the north outside Bangor, while in Dyfed-Powys they’ve been weak for years.Mexicanpete said:I think you overstate Labour's unpopularity in the Bay. That is not to say a rainbow coalition of non-Labour AMs will not form the next Government.
But I would expect a Labour-Plaid coalition next year if only because I cannot see any other route to 30 other than Tory majority (which ain’t happening).
But I can see Tories - most seats in 2021 (albeit it’s not the likeliest outcome) and taking power in 2025-26.
I know, I know, I live in a parallel universe where Johnson appears to be a catastrophe. But he is working class hero catnip to former Labour blue collar voters.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1271153920941928451?s=200 -
You will still need an outlet for those who would have gone to clubs, illegal raves?Black_Rook said:
I'm not fond of the restrictions under which we currently labour either (and I think we could still do with better evidence on masks,) but it seems not unreasonable to conclude that the solution to keeping a lid on this highly infectious disease lies somewhere between sitting in our houses the entire time and carrying on as if nothing had happened. The only question is how much we can get away with.state_go_away said:
If we are not careful we will nanny ourselves back into the dark ages.Black_Rook said:
Hmmmm... I think we all well remember that there have been similar concerns about mass gatherings over here as well - notably the great Bournemouth and Lulworth Cove beach panics - but this theory does sound as though it could be plausible nonetheless. Little knots of sunbathers will consist largely of family household groups and aren't going to be interacting with one another. Sounds like there's a lot more socialising going on in this instance.nichomar said:
Let’s start with the temperature, it’s currently 28 there’s no way you are going to sleep anytime soon. Therefore eating in or out for most starts at 9:30 and goes into the early hours. Groups gather in restaurants, bars and on terraces until 4 or 5 in the morning, the young look for something more exciting so in the absence of discos etc just gather in larger groups. It’s holiday time but there are no fiestas, people are getting together for the first time in months, they hug and kiss. Yes many are bloody irresponsible it would not be too difficult to enjoy life with just a little thought but maybe alcohol is to blame. The R number is still below one, the ICU cases very low and the deaths negligible so maybe some are saying ‘what’s the problem’Black_Rook said:
Agree. I've been wondering for the last couple of days, whilst the possible causes of the Spanish spike have been debated, whether nightclubs are a key component - although it could also be that the Spaniards are less reticent about going out generally and have more of a culture of eating out, as a consequence of which they're packing out the bars and restaurants in much higher densities? Though someone who's actually familiar with what conditions are like over there at the moment would be better placed to comment.ydoethur said:
Well, if nightclubs are a key source of transmission, one suggestion is don’t reopen fecking nightclubs.isam said:
What do you think we should do?SouthamObserver said:Spain had a very strict lockdown and a phased return to normality. We could be looking and learning from what is happening there now with Covid's return given that our cycle is a few weeks' behind their one. What are the chances?
How many people would really miss them? Truthfully?
Specifically with regard to nightclubs, I have no time for them either but then again I'm a stick-in-the-mud fortysomething who's not exactly part of their target demographic. They are popular with a lot of people and, as with the arts, they should be propped up until it is safe for them to resume normal operations. Apart from anything else, since this has all started I've read more than one piece of comment on the nightclubs to the effect that, if the sector is allowed to collapse, the venues are a prime target to be bought up on the cheap and re-opened later by organised crime. This makes sense. They'd be somewhere ideal to ply the naive or reckless young with drugs.
Even if you shut the bars down at 11 people would carry on on their terrace. It’s frustrating to us more elderly locals but that’s how it is. 10,000 people from Madrid on their way to our small town on Friday what On earth could could Go wrong?
I wonder if there have been any clusters of cases traced back to illegal raves in this country?
The Government's approach appears to be working at the moment, but it also seems appropriate to look at what is happening in other countries to try to preempt any future problems. Frankly, if it turns out at the end of all this that everything can open back up except nightclubs, then that doesn't seem like such a bad result.1 -
Was there ever a resolution to the concern that all UK deaths of people who had tested positive were being counted as CV-19, even if they died later from other causes?0
-
There is only 1 of 40 seats for Wales within the statutory quota for electorate size. (1 too big the other 38 too small).justin124 said:
I doubt that. I would expect Labour to regain many - perhaps all - of the seats lost in Wales in 2019. Even if the Tories manage to retain a GB lead of 4% - 5% - compared with 11.7% last time - Labour should regain Bridgend - Delyn - Vale of Clwyd - Clwyd South.Wrexham would be another likely gain. Boundary changes may affect some outcomes , but in the context of a pro- Labour swing of 3% - 4% not very much.Mexicanpete said:
Labour are not very popular in the blue collar seats along the M4 corridor anyway. Boris Johnson by contrast is revered amongst people who considered Brexit to be the way forward.ydoethur said:
I ran a rough calculation based on the likely seats for Wales a few months back.GarethoftheVale2 said:
Yes they are keeping at 650 seats and a 5% threshold. There are 5 protected seats: Orkney and Shetland, Na h-Eileanan an Iar, Ynys Mon, and 2 for Isle of Wight.CorrectHorseBattery said:Can somebody explain the new boundaries as I thought the seat numbers were remaining the same
The main difference with the current boundaries is that Wales loses its over-representation so will likely lose 8 seats. The main winner region is likely to be the South East, which could gain 7 seats.
The new boundaries should benefit the Tories but not as much as before the election. Electoral Calculus' current estimate is Con +6, Lab -3, SNP -2, Plaid - 1 vs 2019.
The boundaries will be based on the electorates from March 2020. So I'm guessing the review will kick off either end of this year or early next year.
I came up with Labour 14, Tory 12, Plaid 2 and a few which were too close to call. With Ynys Môn getting protected status, I’m going to hesitantly put that in the Tory column. I know it’s very close, but it’s 1951 since a sitting MP was defeated there. That leaves three I’m struggling with - two in Carmarthenshire which might go any one of three ways and one in the North.
Any reduction for Wales will hurt Labour pretty badly because the Valleys are their last stronghold and they will inevitably take a pounding.
If Johnson can avoid any blame for any post-Covid and post- Brexit economic damage, and I believe Wales will be caned, particularly post-Brexit, he will pick up a few more seats outside Cardiff. I am sure he has his scapegoats lined up already.
So we can say that virtually none of them will exist in anything like their current configuration.0 -
Brixton block parties? There was an illegal rave in the woods near my in laws the other daynichomar said:
You will still need an outlet for those who would have gone to clubs, illegal raves?Black_Rook said:
I'm not fond of the restrictions under which we currently labour either (and I think we could still do with better evidence on masks,) but it seems not unreasonable to conclude that the solution to keeping a lid on this highly infectious disease lies somewhere between sitting in our houses the entire time and carrying on as if nothing had happened. The only question is how much we can get away with.state_go_away said:
If we are not careful we will nanny ourselves back into the dark ages.Black_Rook said:
Hmmmm... I think we all well remember that there have been similar concerns about mass gatherings over here as well - notably the great Bournemouth and Lulworth Cove beach panics - but this theory does sound as though it could be plausible nonetheless. Little knots of sunbathers will consist largely of family household groups and aren't going to be interacting with one another. Sounds like there's a lot more socialising going on in this instance.nichomar said:
Let’s start with the temperature, it’s currently 28 there’s no way you are going to sleep anytime soon. Therefore eating in or out for most starts at 9:30 and goes into the early hours. Groups gather in restaurants, bars and on terraces until 4 or 5 in the morning, the young look for something more exciting so in the absence of discos etc just gather in larger groups. It’s holiday time but there are no fiestas, people are getting together for the first time in months, they hug and kiss. Yes many are bloody irresponsible it would not be too difficult to enjoy life with just a little thought but maybe alcohol is to blame. The R number is still below one, the ICU cases very low and the deaths negligible so maybe some are saying ‘what’s the problem’Black_Rook said:
Agree. I've been wondering for the last couple of days, whilst the possible causes of the Spanish spike have been debated, whether nightclubs are a key component - although it could also be that the Spaniards are less reticent about going out generally and have more of a culture of eating out, as a consequence of which they're packing out the bars and restaurants in much higher densities? Though someone who's actually familiar with what conditions are like over there at the moment would be better placed to comment.ydoethur said:
Well, if nightclubs are a key source of transmission, one suggestion is don’t reopen fecking nightclubs.isam said:
What do you think we should do?SouthamObserver said:Spain had a very strict lockdown and a phased return to normality. We could be looking and learning from what is happening there now with Covid's return given that our cycle is a few weeks' behind their one. What are the chances?
How many people would really miss them? Truthfully?
Specifically with regard to nightclubs, I have no time for them either but then again I'm a stick-in-the-mud fortysomething who's not exactly part of their target demographic. They are popular with a lot of people and, as with the arts, they should be propped up until it is safe for them to resume normal operations. Apart from anything else, since this has all started I've read more than one piece of comment on the nightclubs to the effect that, if the sector is allowed to collapse, the venues are a prime target to be bought up on the cheap and re-opened later by organised crime. This makes sense. They'd be somewhere ideal to ply the naive or reckless young with drugs.
Even if you shut the bars down at 11 people would carry on on their terrace. It’s frustrating to us more elderly locals but that’s how it is. 10,000 people from Madrid on their way to our small town on Friday what On earth could could Go wrong?
I wonder if there have been any clusters of cases traced back to illegal raves in this country?
The Government's approach appears to be working at the moment, but it also seems appropriate to look at what is happening in other countries to try to preempt any future problems. Frankly, if it turns out at the end of all this that everything can open back up except nightclubs, then that doesn't seem like such a bad result.0 -
They won’t be missed until mid September when the bulk of the spanish have gone back to Madrid and Murcia then it will really biteRochdalePioneers said:
Mrs RP and the childs going over to Alicante next Sunday. The way her dad has described what they can and can't do whilst out there I'm not sure there is much of a tourist industry to miss any Brits who choose not to travel.state_go_away said:
yes exactly - causes untold misery for all that rely on it and obviously stops people having a deserved break as well .Big_G_NorthWales said:This is a bitter blow to Spain's tourist industry
0 -
Charming & amusing even when nailing your head to the floor?Mexicanpete said:
Comparable villainy in my book!justin124 said:
Johnson is a hero to some working class voters in the same way that many people in the East End of London liked the Kray twins.Mexicanpete said:
The Johnson factor may make Conservatives most seats next year.ydoethur said:
I don’t know. My impression is their support is patchy. I think Labour are in advanced and possibly terminal decay in the north outside Bangor, while in Dyfed-Powys they’ve been weak for years.Mexicanpete said:I think you overstate Labour's unpopularity in the Bay. That is not to say a rainbow coalition of non-Labour AMs will not form the next Government.
But I would expect a Labour-Plaid coalition next year if only because I cannot see any other route to 30 other than Tory majority (which ain’t happening).
But I can see Tories - most seats in 2021 (albeit it’s not the likeliest outcome) and taking power in 2025-26.
I know, I know, I live in a parallel universe where Johnson appears to be a catastrophe. But he is working class hero catnip to former Labour blue collar voters.0 -
Huh? This government are *desperate* for normal. Go back to the office. Buy Pret. Go to the pub. Spend money. Send your kids back into crowded schools in September. Why would they needlessly impose masks now to derail all that?rottenborough said:
"If nothing else having to wear masks whilst shopping really reinforces things aren't remotely normal."RochdalePioneers said:Interesting times with Spain. One of my team is Spanish and is home with her family in Murcia. Due back in a week - ok so like all of us we've been mainly WFH but could be complicated. As for Mrs RP and the kids "unless easyJet cancel the flights we're going". Which is fair. 2 weeks self-isolation not a major problem when she's a TA and its the holidays!
What it really does reinforce to me is that this bloody virus isn't going away fast and the "get back to work and spending money you plebs" policy from the government is going to increasingly backfire - badly - as it increasingly sounds desperate and flying in the face of the obvious. If nothing else having to wear masks whilst shopping really reinforces things aren't remotely normal.
That's why they introduced it imho. Nothing to do with reducing transmission in itself.
I despise wearing a mask. Its all the things the Keep Britain Free wazzocks say it is. It makes shopping and travelling by train utterly utterly miserable. But unlike those selfish cockwombles I'm wearing one without question because we have to. Collectively. It's called society.3 -
Jack "the hat"McVitie might have disagreed with me.Big_G_NorthWales said:Mexicanpete said:
Comparable villainy in my book!justin124 said:
Johnson is a hero to some working class voters in the same way that many people in the East End of London liked the Kray twins.Mexicanpete said:
The Johnson factor may make Conservatives most seats next year.ydoethur said:
I don’t know. My impression is their support is patchy. I think Labour are in advanced and possibly terminal decay in the north outside Bangor, while in Dyfed-Powys they’ve been weak for years.Mexicanpete said:I think you overstate Labour's unpopularity in the Bay. That is not to say a rainbow coalition of non-Labour AMs will not form the next Government.
But I would expect a Labour-Plaid coalition next year if only because I cannot see any other route to 30 other than Tory majority (which ain’t happening).
But I can see Tories - most seats in 2021 (albeit it’s not the likeliest outcome) and taking power in 2025-26.
I know, I know, I live in a parallel universe where Johnson appears to be a catastrophe. But he is working class hero catnip to former Labour blue collar voters.Mexicanpete said:
Comparable villainy in my book!justin124 said:
Johnson is a hero to some working class voters in the same way that many people in the East End of London liked the Kray twins.Mexicanpete said:
The Johnson factor may make Conservatives most seats next year.ydoethur said:
I don’t know. My impression is their support is patchy. I think Labour are in advanced and possibly terminal decay in the north outside Bangor, while in Dyfed-Powys they’ve been weak for years.Mexicanpete said:I think you overstate Labour's unpopularity in the Bay. That is not to say a rainbow coalition of non-Labour AMs will not form the next Government.
But I would expect a Labour-Plaid coalition next year if only because I cannot see any other route to 30 other than Tory majority (which ain’t happening).
But I can see Tories - most seats in 2021 (albeit it’s not the likeliest outcome) and taking power in 2025-26.
I know, I know, I live in a parallel universe where Johnson appears to be a catastrophe. But he is working class hero catnip to former Labour blue collar voters.
ReallyMexicanpete said:
Comparable villainy in my book!justin124 said:
Johnson is a hero to some working class voters in the same way that many people in the East End of London liked the Kray twins.Mexicanpete said:
The Johnson factor may make Conservatives most seats next year.ydoethur said:
I don’t know. My impression is their support is patchy. I think Labour are in advanced and possibly terminal decay in the north outside Bangor, while in Dyfed-Powys they’ve been weak for years.Mexicanpete said:I think you overstate Labour's unpopularity in the Bay. That is not to say a rainbow coalition of non-Labour AMs will not form the next Government.
But I would expect a Labour-Plaid coalition next year if only because I cannot see any other route to 30 other than Tory majority (which ain’t happening).
But I can see Tories - most seats in 2021 (albeit it’s not the likeliest outcome) and taking power in 2025-26.
I know, I know, I live in a parallel universe where Johnson appears to be a catastrophe. But he is working class hero catnip to former Labour blue collar voters.
From your post it seems I am so convinced I said it three times!0 -
Not sure exatly where her folks are, small village nearby I believe.nichomar said:
Murcia seems to be suffering from having such a low initial wave of infections, not scientific but a possibility. Whereabouts is she or did you mean Murcia city?RochdalePioneers said:Interesting times with Spain. One of my team is Spanish and is home with her family in Murcia. Due back in a week - ok so like all of us we've been mainly WFH but could be complicated. As for Mrs RP and the kids "unless easyJet cancel the flights we're going". Which is fair. 2 weeks self-isolation not a major problem when she's a TA and its the holidays!
What it really does reinforce to me is that this bloody virus isn't going away fast and the "get back to work and spending money you plebs" policy from the government is going to increasingly backfire - badly - as it increasingly sounds desperate and flying in the face of the obvious. If nothing else having to wear masks whilst shopping really reinforces things aren't remotely normal.0 -
Yes, in Peter Green's case I don't think he understood that this involuntary and so more negative form of LSD experience had changed him for the aggressive worse ; Syd Barrett just disappeared, looking after his sister's house. Kinabalu makes the good point that once these maybe most sensitive souls were basically dispensed with, the bands went on to storming commercial success.isam said:
Yes, both fascinating stories. At least PG came back to some kind of normality in his later years. To be fair though, he loved the drugs - in the MOTW doc he doesn't really seem to regret taking LSD at all!WhisperingOracle said:
Thanks for this. There are incredible similarities with Syd Barrett's story here ; those who were the most sensitive souls, and had a period of having their drinks spiked with LSD, often seem to have suffered the most negative consequences of hallucinogens. Both he and Barrett seem to have degenerated almost to drifters after these experiences, which they didn't plan or initiate.isam said:.
An incredibly sad story. The Man of the World documentary by the BBC is good. I think it is on iplayer, but no doubt will be shown again now he has sadly passed away. Spent his final years in Leigh-on-Sea I believeWhisperingOracle said:
My wife's family knew Peter Green's younger relatives, apparently. One of that generation of postwar East End Jewish boys drawn to the 'sixties creative industries ; Marc Bolan was another.isam said:RIP Peter Green
So sad. I loved Peter. This week I have been trying to learn Oh Well and Black Magic Woman on the guitar.
I think had you offered him his last twenty five years back in the late 70s/early 80s he wouldn't have believed it possible. It could have been a lot, lot worse.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6GB_c6d_2U
https://web.musicaficionado.com/main/article/Peter_Green_Article
More confident personalities of the era, acting with their own sense of agency, and most importantly not so enormously frightened and unsettled by the experience, seemed to have been the ones quite often deriving more benefit from it, and also generally only rarely returning to the drug afterwards.0 -
The last poll in Wales showed a big shift back to Labour.I believe it would be a mistake to extrapolate much from Welsh Assembly elections where turnout is much lower and party alleigances much looser. Were I on the electoral roll there, I would support the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party.Mexicanpete said:
I live near Bridgend, and I would have thought you are right, particularly with the fallout from the closure of the engine plant, but WAG rather than Johnson are taking the hit on that.justin124 said:
I doubt that. I would expect Labour to regain many - perhaps all - of the seats lost in Wales in 2019. Even if the Tories manage to retain a GB lead of 4% - 5% - compared with 11.7% last time - Labour should regain Bridgend - Delyn - Vale of Clwyd - Clwyd South.Wrexham would be another likely gain. Boundary changes may affect some outcomes , but in the context of a pro- Labour swing of 3% - 4% not very much.Mexicanpete said:
Labour are not very popular in the blue collar seats along the M4 corridor anyway. Boris Johnson by contrast is revered amongst people who considered Brexit to be the way forward.ydoethur said:
I ran a rough calculation based on the likely seats for Wales a few months back.GarethoftheVale2 said:
Yes they are keeping at 650 seats and a 5% threshold. There are 5 protected seats: Orkney and Shetland, Na h-Eileanan an Iar, Ynys Mon, and 2 for Isle of Wight.CorrectHorseBattery said:Can somebody explain the new boundaries as I thought the seat numbers were remaining the same
The main difference with the current boundaries is that Wales loses its over-representation so will likely lose 8 seats. The main winner region is likely to be the South East, which could gain 7 seats.
The new boundaries should benefit the Tories but not as much as before the election. Electoral Calculus' current estimate is Con +6, Lab -3, SNP -2, Plaid - 1 vs 2019.
The boundaries will be based on the electorates from March 2020. So I'm guessing the review will kick off either end of this year or early next year.
I came up with Labour 14, Tory 12, Plaid 2 and a few which were too close to call. With Ynys Môn getting protected status, I’m going to hesitantly put that in the Tory column. I know it’s very close, but it’s 1951 since a sitting MP was defeated there. That leaves three I’m struggling with - two in Carmarthenshire which might go any one of three ways and one in the North.
Any reduction for Wales will hurt Labour pretty badly because the Valleys are their last stronghold and they will inevitably take a pounding.
If Johnson can avoid any blame for any post-Covid and post- Brexit economic damage, and I believe Wales will be caned, particularly post-Brexit, he will pick up a few more seats outside Cardiff. I am sure he has his scapegoats lined up already.
Labour have a very frosty relationship with the TV broadcast media here in Wales. Local BBC news is very hostile. Drakeford's stock has risen through Covid, but he and the Assembly Government are compared poorly against Johnson's performance, particularly in relation to the "late" opening of retail and hospitality sectors. Still no mandatory mask wearing in Wales, so Drakeford and Gething are being hammered in the media (rightly?) for that.
Johnson is an enigma here in Wales. Historically the Welsh were hostile to English Tory Toffs, but Johnson seems to transcend that.0 -
Who? Boris or Reggie and Ronnie.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Charming & amusing even when nailing your head to the floor?Mexicanpete said:
Comparable villainy in my book!justin124 said:
Johnson is a hero to some working class voters in the same way that many people in the East End of London liked the Kray twins.Mexicanpete said:
The Johnson factor may make Conservatives most seats next year.ydoethur said:
I don’t know. My impression is their support is patchy. I think Labour are in advanced and possibly terminal decay in the north outside Bangor, while in Dyfed-Powys they’ve been weak for years.Mexicanpete said:I think you overstate Labour's unpopularity in the Bay. That is not to say a rainbow coalition of non-Labour AMs will not form the next Government.
But I would expect a Labour-Plaid coalition next year if only because I cannot see any other route to 30 other than Tory majority (which ain’t happening).
But I can see Tories - most seats in 2021 (albeit it’s not the likeliest outcome) and taking power in 2025-26.
I know, I know, I live in a parallel universe where Johnson appears to be a catastrophe. But he is working class hero catnip to former Labour blue collar voters.0 -
Hopefully not Totana in total lockdown at present.RochdalePioneers said:
Not sure exatly where her folks are, small village nearby I believe.nichomar said:
Murcia seems to be suffering from having such a low initial wave of infections, not scientific but a possibility. Whereabouts is she or did you mean Murcia city?RochdalePioneers said:Interesting times with Spain. One of my team is Spanish and is home with her family in Murcia. Due back in a week - ok so like all of us we've been mainly WFH but could be complicated. As for Mrs RP and the kids "unless easyJet cancel the flights we're going". Which is fair. 2 weeks self-isolation not a major problem when she's a TA and its the holidays!
What it really does reinforce to me is that this bloody virus isn't going away fast and the "get back to work and spending money you plebs" policy from the government is going to increasingly backfire - badly - as it increasingly sounds desperate and flying in the face of the obvious. If nothing else having to wear masks whilst shopping really reinforces things aren't remotely normal.0 -
Sorry, but you're saying that Pink Floyd in contrast were *not* serious musicians? Its an opinion...isam said:
I used to be a big fan of early Floyd ft Syd, Piper at the Gates of Dawn, but now it sounds like absolute nonsense. Peter Green, in contrast, was a serious musician, and his music with Fleetwood Mac still sounds fantastic todaykinabalu said:
Yes strikingly similar stories.WhisperingOracle said:
Thanks for this. There are incredible similarities with Syd Barrett's story here ; those who were the most sensitive souls, and had a period of having their drinks spiked with LSD, often seem to have suffered the most negative consequences of hallucinogens. Both he and Barrett seem to have degenerated almost to drifters after these experiences, which they didn't plan or initiate.isam said:.
An incredibly sad story. The Man of the World documentary by the BBC is good. I think it is on iplayer, but no doubt will be shown again now he has sadly passed away. Spent his final years in Leigh-on-Sea I believeWhisperingOracle said:
My wife's family knew Peter Green's younger relatives, apparently. One of that generation of postwar East End Jewish boys drawn to the 'sixties creative industries ; Marc Bolan was another.isam said:RIP Peter Green
So sad. I loved Peter. This week I have been trying to learn Oh Well and Black Magic Woman on the guitar.
I think had you offered him his last twenty five years back in the late 70s/early 80s he wouldn't have believed it possible. It could have been a lot, lot worse.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6GB_c6d_2U
https://web.musicaficionado.com/main/article/Peter_Green_Article
More confident personalities of the era, acting with their own sense of agency, and most importantly not so enormously frightened and unsettled by the experience, seemed to have been the ones sometimes deriving more benefit from it ; and also generally seemed to have returned to the drug only rarely, if at all, afterwards.
And in both cases following the demise of the talented but vulnerable founding member the bands went on to enormous commercial success.
Nick Mason's Saucerful of Secrets. Fantastic band playing fantastic music. And the best thing on their setlist? Vegetable Man, which is literally - and gloriously - nonsense.0 -
As a bad dancer and not a fan of loud music I wont miss nightclubs personally but then again I am not 18 -25 . I really dont think the existence of civilisation rests with not having nightclubs. It spretty obvious you need herd immunity from this and NY .London ,Sweden have gone a way to it - others will get there , mask wearing /nightclubs whatever .All that is lost by overly restrictive laws now is common humanity and hope that people will still have jobsnichomar said:
You will still need an outlet for those who would have gone to clubs, illegal raves?Black_Rook said:
I'm not fond of the restrictions under which we currently labour either (and I think we could still do with better evidence on masks,) but it seems not unreasonable to conclude that the solution to keeping a lid on this highly infectious disease lies somewhere between sitting in our houses the entire time and carrying on as if nothing had happened. The only question is how much we can get away with.state_go_away said:
If we are not careful we will nanny ourselves back into the dark ages.Black_Rook said:
Hmmmm... I think we all well remember that there have been similar concerns about mass gatherings over here as well - notably the great Bournemouth and Lulworth Cove beach panics - but this theory does sound as though it could be plausible nonetheless. Little knots of sunbathers will consist largely of family household groups and aren't going to be interacting with one another. Sounds like there's a lot more socialising going on in this instance.nichomar said:
Let’s start with the temperature, it’s currently 28 there’s no way you are going to sleep anytime soon. Therefore eating in or out for most starts at 9:30 and goes into the early hours. Groups gather in restaurants, bars and on terraces until 4 or 5 in the morning, the young look for something more exciting so in the absence of discos etc just gather in larger groups. It’s holiday time but there are no fiestas, people are getting together for the first time in months, they hug and kiss. Yes many are bloody irresponsible it would not be too difficult to enjoy life with just a little thought but maybe alcohol is to blame. The R number is still below one, the ICU cases very low and the deaths negligible so maybe some are saying ‘what’s the problem’Black_Rook said:
Agree. I've been wondering for the last couple of days, whilst the possible causes of the Spanish spike have been debated, whether nightclubs are a key component - although it could also be that the Spaniards are less reticent about going out generally and have more of a culture of eating out, as a consequence of which they're packing out the bars and restaurants in much higher densities? Though someone who's actually familiar with what conditions are like over there at the moment would be better placed to comment.ydoethur said:
Well, if nightclubs are a key source of transmission, one suggestion is don’t reopen fecking nightclubs.isam said:
What do you think we should do?SouthamObserver said:Spain had a very strict lockdown and a phased return to normality. We could be looking and learning from what is happening there now with Covid's return given that our cycle is a few weeks' behind their one. What are the chances?
How many people would really miss them? Truthfully?
Specifically with regard to nightclubs, I have no time for them either but then again I'm a stick-in-the-mud fortysomething who's not exactly part of their target demographic. They are popular with a lot of people and, as with the arts, they should be propped up until it is safe for them to resume normal operations. Apart from anything else, since this has all started I've read more than one piece of comment on the nightclubs to the effect that, if the sector is allowed to collapse, the venues are a prime target to be bought up on the cheap and re-opened later by organised crime. This makes sense. They'd be somewhere ideal to ply the naive or reckless young with drugs.
Even if you shut the bars down at 11 people would carry on on their terrace. It’s frustrating to us more elderly locals but that’s how it is. 10,000 people from Madrid on their way to our small town on Friday what On earth could could Go wrong?
I wonder if there have been any clusters of cases traced back to illegal raves in this country?
The Government's approach appears to be working at the moment, but it also seems appropriate to look at what is happening in other countries to try to preempt any future problems. Frankly, if it turns out at the end of all this that everything can open back up except nightclubs, then that doesn't seem like such a bad result.0 -
No - the enquiry into that has vanished into the mists.Benpointer said:Was there ever a resolution to the concern that all UK deaths of people who had tested positive were being counted as CV-19, even if they died later from other causes?
My guess is that PHE would find the revision to be embarrassing and various people are trying to run round and hope something turns up. Before they have to release revised figures.
At that point there will be a political explosion of sorts - up to and including twitter hate mobs.0 -
I voted "No" in 1998, but I am a convert now.justin124 said:
The last poll in Wales showed a big shift back to Labour.I believe it would be a mistake to extrapolate much from Welsh Assembly elections where turnout is much lower and party alleigances much looser. Were I on the electoral roll there, I would support the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party.Mexicanpete said:
I live near Bridgend, and I would have thought you are right, particularly with the fallout from the closure of the engine plant, but WAG rather than Johnson are taking the hit on that.justin124 said:
I doubt that. I would expect Labour to regain many - perhaps all - of the seats lost in Wales in 2019. Even if the Tories manage to retain a GB lead of 4% - 5% - compared with 11.7% last time - Labour should regain Bridgend - Delyn - Vale of Clwyd - Clwyd South.Wrexham would be another likely gain. Boundary changes may affect some outcomes , but in the context of a pro- Labour swing of 3% - 4% not very much.Mexicanpete said:
Labour are not very popular in the blue collar seats along the M4 corridor anyway. Boris Johnson by contrast is revered amongst people who considered Brexit to be the way forward.ydoethur said:
I ran a rough calculation based on the likely seats for Wales a few months back.GarethoftheVale2 said:
Yes they are keeping at 650 seats and a 5% threshold. There are 5 protected seats: Orkney and Shetland, Na h-Eileanan an Iar, Ynys Mon, and 2 for Isle of Wight.CorrectHorseBattery said:Can somebody explain the new boundaries as I thought the seat numbers were remaining the same
The main difference with the current boundaries is that Wales loses its over-representation so will likely lose 8 seats. The main winner region is likely to be the South East, which could gain 7 seats.
The new boundaries should benefit the Tories but not as much as before the election. Electoral Calculus' current estimate is Con +6, Lab -3, SNP -2, Plaid - 1 vs 2019.
The boundaries will be based on the electorates from March 2020. So I'm guessing the review will kick off either end of this year or early next year.
I came up with Labour 14, Tory 12, Plaid 2 and a few which were too close to call. With Ynys Môn getting protected status, I’m going to hesitantly put that in the Tory column. I know it’s very close, but it’s 1951 since a sitting MP was defeated there. That leaves three I’m struggling with - two in Carmarthenshire which might go any one of three ways and one in the North.
Any reduction for Wales will hurt Labour pretty badly because the Valleys are their last stronghold and they will inevitably take a pounding.
If Johnson can avoid any blame for any post-Covid and post- Brexit economic damage, and I believe Wales will be caned, particularly post-Brexit, he will pick up a few more seats outside Cardiff. I am sure he has his scapegoats lined up already.
Labour have a very frosty relationship with the TV broadcast media here in Wales. Local BBC news is very hostile. Drakeford's stock has risen through Covid, but he and the Assembly Government are compared poorly against Johnson's performance, particularly in relation to the "late" opening of retail and hospitality sectors. Still no mandatory mask wearing in Wales, so Drakeford and Gething are being hammered in the media (rightly?) for that.
Johnson is an enigma here in Wales. Historically the Welsh were hostile to English Tory Toffs, but Johnson seems to transcend that.1 -
DINSDALE!!!!!!Mexicanpete said:
Who? Boris or Reggie and Ronnie.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Charming & amusing even when nailing your head to the floor?Mexicanpete said:
Comparable villainy in my book!justin124 said:
Johnson is a hero to some working class voters in the same way that many people in the East End of London liked the Kray twins.Mexicanpete said:
The Johnson factor may make Conservatives most seats next year.ydoethur said:
I don’t know. My impression is their support is patchy. I think Labour are in advanced and possibly terminal decay in the north outside Bangor, while in Dyfed-Powys they’ve been weak for years.Mexicanpete said:I think you overstate Labour's unpopularity in the Bay. That is not to say a rainbow coalition of non-Labour AMs will not form the next Government.
But I would expect a Labour-Plaid coalition next year if only because I cannot see any other route to 30 other than Tory majority (which ain’t happening).
But I can see Tories - most seats in 2021 (albeit it’s not the likeliest outcome) and taking power in 2025-26.
I know, I know, I live in a parallel universe where Johnson appears to be a catastrophe. But he is working class hero catnip to former Labour blue collar voters.1 -
But not at all surprising. There will have been a lot of boredom and anxiety eating going on during this period, and the proportion of gym users who've taken up outdoor exercise will be well short of 100%, despite the fact that we've had a lot of good weather.Andy_JS said:This is disappointing. I would have thought most people are exercising more than before.
"The public has been snacking more in lockdown and, despite increases in sales of bikes and exercise equipment, overall activity levels appear to have dropped compared to before the pandemic"
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-07-24/experts-warn-over-huge-risk-of-covid-death-in-obese-people-as-gyms-reopen
This period of enforced inactivity - the prolonged closure of leisure facilities, and prohibition of sports - will likely have undone many years of effort to get the population more active, just as many people have also developed serious chocolate biscuit fixations. Alas, good habits are often as easy to lose as bad habits are hard to give up.0 -
Why would Labour under Starmer do worse in Wales than Corbyn in 2019 - or even 2017? Particularly in the context of a swing to Labour across GB of circa 4%! Never seen it happen there before.Mexicanpete said:
Good point. My anecdotal antenna makes me nervous that the Conservatives are still in the ascent as your poll suggests. I just don't see where the improvement for Labour comes from.CatMan said:
I hate to get all HYFUD, but the last poll that was taken doesn't seem to show thatMexicanpete said:
The Johnson factor may make Conservatives most seats next year.ydoethur said:
I don’t know. My impression is their support is patchy. I think Labour are in advanced and possibly terminal decay in the north outside Bangor, while in Dyfed-Powys they’ve been weak for years.Mexicanpete said:I think you overstate Labour's unpopularity in the Bay. That is not to say a rainbow coalition of non-Labour AMs will not form the next Government.
But I would expect a Labour-Plaid coalition next year if only because I cannot see any other route to 30 other than Tory majority (which ain’t happening).
But I can see Tories - most seats in 2021 (albeit it’s not the likeliest outcome) and taking power in 2025-26.
I know, I know, I live in a parallel universe where Johnson appears to be a catastrophe. But he is working class hero catnip to former Labour blue collar voters.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1271153920941928451?s=200 -
My God.Philip_Thompson said:Apologies if this has already been discussed but WTF is wrong with GMB? Even without Piers Morgan. This clip is disgusting. 😡
https://twitter.com/Miss_Snuffy/status/1287041804316151812?s=190 -
A big motivator in exercise is doing it in a group = parkrun , zumba ,sport clubs etc - As seen as these cannot still happen in the main (why on earth cannot parkruns be done now I dont know) then people will get unfitAndy_JS said:This is disappointing. I would have thought most people are exercising more than before.
"The public has been snacking more in lockdown and, despite increases in sales of bikes and exercise equipment, overall activity levels appear to have dropped compared to before the pandemic"
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-07-24/experts-warn-over-huge-risk-of-covid-death-in-obese-people-as-gyms-reopen0 -
https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/worrying-about-reaganSeaShantyIrish2 said:
IIRC the potential invoking of 25th amendment occurred in immediate aftermath of attempted assassination, when Reagan was recovering from gunshot wound. NOT in the later part of his 2nd term (post Iran-Contra scandal).ydoethur said:
Reagan had it while in office, to the extent his staff seriously considered invoking the 25th Amendment to hand power to Bush. But it wasn’t formally diagnosed until later.Flanner said:
What do you mean by "ages"?Philip_Thompson said:The presidency rapidly ages people. I rather hope that Biden will be self-aware enough that if it becomes necessary he would rather retire than in four years time be proud of himself for being able to say "person woman man camera tv"
Most heads of government look a lot older after a stint in power than the time they've spent in office. But the only one I'm aware who actually developed clinically-diagnosed dementia in office was Wilson (who did then retire). And, as far as I'm aware, there's not a shred of evidence being PM accelerated his dementia
FWIW, my own experience is that dementia usually sets in once someone's stopped being active (eg Thatcher and I think Reagan, but lots of people I know socially)
Is there any evidence the old in office get demented relatively quickly? I'd have said that the evidence from QEII and Benedict XV is that having a real job in extreme old age keeps your brain working.0 -
No no no.....SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Don't get this whole hedge manager business - who'd have thought there was quite SO much money in supervising shrubbery?CorrectHorseBattery said:
It's a fund that invests in companies that supervise shrubbery.
Here is an advert for such services -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIV4poUZAQo0 -
I like both ; I think there's still a revelatory, almost chiidlike strangeness about Barrett, but unfortunately between about 1967 and 1969 the childlike wonder and fascination with things turned to madness.isam said:
I used to be a big fan of early Floyd ft Syd, Piper at the Gates of Dawn, but now it sounds like absolute nonsense. Peter Green, in contrast, was a serious musician, and his music with Fleetwood Mac still sounds fantastic todaykinabalu said:
Yes strikingly similar stories.WhisperingOracle said:
Thanks for this. There are incredible similarities with Syd Barrett's story here ; those who were the most sensitive souls, and had a period of having their drinks spiked with LSD, often seem to have suffered the most negative consequences of hallucinogens. Both he and Barrett seem to have degenerated almost to drifters after these experiences, which they didn't plan or initiate.isam said:.
An incredibly sad story. The Man of the World documentary by the BBC is good. I think it is on iplayer, but no doubt will be shown again now he has sadly passed away. Spent his final years in Leigh-on-Sea I believeWhisperingOracle said:
My wife's family knew Peter Green's younger relatives, apparently. One of that generation of postwar East End Jewish boys drawn to the 'sixties creative industries ; Marc Bolan was another.isam said:RIP Peter Green
So sad. I loved Peter. This week I have been trying to learn Oh Well and Black Magic Woman on the guitar.
I think had you offered him his last twenty five years back in the late 70s/early 80s he wouldn't have believed it possible. It could have been a lot, lot worse.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6GB_c6d_2U
https://web.musicaficionado.com/main/article/Peter_Green_Article
More confident personalities of the era, acting with their own sense of agency, and most importantly not so enormously frightened and unsettled by the experience, seemed to have been the ones sometimes deriving more benefit from it ; and also generally seemed to have returned to the drug only rarely, if at all, afterwards.
And in both cases following the demise of the talented but vulnerable founding member the bands went on to enormous commercial success.1 -
The many nightclub owners on the Spanish costas and in the Balearics. Hence Spain's decision to reopen them. Now much regrettedydoethur said:
Well, if nightclubs are a key source of transmission, one suggestion is don’t reopen fecking nightclubs.isam said:
What do you think we should do?SouthamObserver said:Spain had a very strict lockdown and a phased return to normality. We could be looking and learning from what is happening there now with Covid's return given that our cycle is a few weeks' behind their one. What are the chances?
How many people would really miss them? Truthfully?0 -
I did not have a vote in Autumn 1997 - but have certainly not changed my mind.Very content if Johnson called a Referendum there to ascertain whether voters still wanted the Assembly. I am firmly of the Left but would vote Tory in a Tory v Plaid contest. Ditto in Scotland re-SNP.Mexicanpete said:
I voted "No" in 1998, but I am a convert now.justin124 said:
The last poll in Wales showed a big shift back to Labour.I believe it would be a mistake to extrapolate much from Welsh Assembly elections where turnout is much lower and party alleigances much looser. Were I on the electoral roll there, I would support the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party.Mexicanpete said:
I live near Bridgend, and I would have thought you are right, particularly with the fallout from the closure of the engine plant, but WAG rather than Johnson are taking the hit on that.justin124 said:
I doubt that. I would expect Labour to regain many - perhaps all - of the seats lost in Wales in 2019. Even if the Tories manage to retain a GB lead of 4% - 5% - compared with 11.7% last time - Labour should regain Bridgend - Delyn - Vale of Clwyd - Clwyd South.Wrexham would be another likely gain. Boundary changes may affect some outcomes , but in the context of a pro- Labour swing of 3% - 4% not very much.Mexicanpete said:
Labour are not very popular in the blue collar seats along the M4 corridor anyway. Boris Johnson by contrast is revered amongst people who considered Brexit to be the way forward.ydoethur said:
I ran a rough calculation based on the likely seats for Wales a few months back.GarethoftheVale2 said:
Yes they are keeping at 650 seats and a 5% threshold. There are 5 protected seats: Orkney and Shetland, Na h-Eileanan an Iar, Ynys Mon, and 2 for Isle of Wight.CorrectHorseBattery said:Can somebody explain the new boundaries as I thought the seat numbers were remaining the same
The main difference with the current boundaries is that Wales loses its over-representation so will likely lose 8 seats. The main winner region is likely to be the South East, which could gain 7 seats.
The new boundaries should benefit the Tories but not as much as before the election. Electoral Calculus' current estimate is Con +6, Lab -3, SNP -2, Plaid - 1 vs 2019.
The boundaries will be based on the electorates from March 2020. So I'm guessing the review will kick off either end of this year or early next year.
I came up with Labour 14, Tory 12, Plaid 2 and a few which were too close to call. With Ynys Môn getting protected status, I’m going to hesitantly put that in the Tory column. I know it’s very close, but it’s 1951 since a sitting MP was defeated there. That leaves three I’m struggling with - two in Carmarthenshire which might go any one of three ways and one in the North.
Any reduction for Wales will hurt Labour pretty badly because the Valleys are their last stronghold and they will inevitably take a pounding.
If Johnson can avoid any blame for any post-Covid and post- Brexit economic damage, and I believe Wales will be caned, particularly post-Brexit, he will pick up a few more seats outside Cardiff. I am sure he has his scapegoats lined up already.
Labour have a very frosty relationship with the TV broadcast media here in Wales. Local BBC news is very hostile. Drakeford's stock has risen through Covid, but he and the Assembly Government are compared poorly against Johnson's performance, particularly in relation to the "late" opening of retail and hospitality sectors. Still no mandatory mask wearing in Wales, so Drakeford and Gething are being hammered in the media (rightly?) for that.
Johnson is an enigma here in Wales. Historically the Welsh were hostile to English Tory Toffs, but Johnson seems to transcend that.0 -
Brexit and latent racism.justin124 said:
Why would Labour under Starmer do worse in Wales than Corbyn in 2019 - or even 2017? Particularly in the context of a swing to Labour across GB of circa 4%! Never seen it happen there before.Mexicanpete said:
Good point. My anecdotal antenna makes me nervous that the Conservatives are still in the ascent as your poll suggests. I just don't see where the improvement for Labour comes from.CatMan said:
I hate to get all HYFUD, but the last poll that was taken doesn't seem to show thatMexicanpete said:
The Johnson factor may make Conservatives most seats next year.ydoethur said:
I don’t know. My impression is their support is patchy. I think Labour are in advanced and possibly terminal decay in the north outside Bangor, while in Dyfed-Powys they’ve been weak for years.Mexicanpete said:I think you overstate Labour's unpopularity in the Bay. That is not to say a rainbow coalition of non-Labour AMs will not form the next Government.
But I would expect a Labour-Plaid coalition next year if only because I cannot see any other route to 30 other than Tory majority (which ain’t happening).
But I can see Tories - most seats in 2021 (albeit it’s not the likeliest outcome) and taking power in 2025-26.
I know, I know, I live in a parallel universe where Johnson appears to be a catastrophe. But he is working class hero catnip to former Labour blue collar voters.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1271153920941928451?s=200 -
We were planning to go to Malaga end of August for a week. We saw the writing on the wall and cancelled yesterday, rebooking to Malta. No guarantees that that will happen either.state_go_away said:
yes exactly - causes untold misery for all that rely on it and obviously stops people having a deserved break as well .Big_G_NorthWales said:This is a bitter blow to Spain's tourist industry
We went to Barcelona last weekend, and while many people were wearing masks, no-one seemed to following the instructions to stay at home.0 -
Poor Syd was not sent mad by LSD. The drug might have accelerated his decline, but the schizophrenia was priced in from the start.WhisperingOracle said:
Thanks for this. There are incredible similarities with Syd Barrett's story here ; those who were the most sensitive souls, and had a period of having their drinks spiked with LSD, often seem to have suffered the most negative consequences of hallucinogens. Both he and Barrett seem to have degenerated almost to drifters after these experiences, which they didn't plan or initiate.isam said:.
An incredibly sad story. The Man of the World documentary by the BBC is good. I think it is on iplayer, but no doubt will be shown again now he has sadly passed away. Spent his final years in Leigh-on-Sea I believeWhisperingOracle said:
My wife's family knew Peter Green's younger relatives, apparently. One of that generation of postwar East End Jewish boys drawn to the 'sixties creative industries ; Marc Bolan was another.isam said:RIP Peter Green
So sad. I loved Peter. This week I have been trying to learn Oh Well and Black Magic Woman on the guitar.
I think had you offered him his last twenty five years back in the late 70s/early 80s he wouldn't have believed it possible. It could have been a lot, lot worse.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6GB_c6d_2U
https://web.musicaficionado.com/main/article/Peter_Green_Article
More confident personalities of the era, acting with their own sense of agency, and most importantly not so enormously frightened and unsettled by the experience, seemed to have been the ones sometimes deriving more benefit from it ; and also generally seemed to have returned to the drug only rarely, if at all, afterwards.
I know the man who lived with him in his last years in London, in the famous Earls Court flat with the striped floor - the location used on the iconic cover of his solo album.0 -
But those are not new factors compared with 2019 - and by 2024 Brexit is likely to be a peripheral issue.Mexicanpete said:
Brexit and latent racism.justin124 said:
Why would Labour under Starmer do worse in Wales than Corbyn in 2019 - or even 2017? Particularly in the context of a swing to Labour across GB of circa 4%! Never seen it happen there before.Mexicanpete said:
Good point. My anecdotal antenna makes me nervous that the Conservatives are still in the ascent as your poll suggests. I just don't see where the improvement for Labour comes from.CatMan said:
I hate to get all HYFUD, but the last poll that was taken doesn't seem to show thatMexicanpete said:
The Johnson factor may make Conservatives most seats next year.ydoethur said:
I don’t know. My impression is their support is patchy. I think Labour are in advanced and possibly terminal decay in the north outside Bangor, while in Dyfed-Powys they’ve been weak for years.Mexicanpete said:I think you overstate Labour's unpopularity in the Bay. That is not to say a rainbow coalition of non-Labour AMs will not form the next Government.
But I would expect a Labour-Plaid coalition next year if only because I cannot see any other route to 30 other than Tory majority (which ain’t happening).
But I can see Tories - most seats in 2021 (albeit it’s not the likeliest outcome) and taking power in 2025-26.
I know, I know, I live in a parallel universe where Johnson appears to be a catastrophe. But he is working class hero catnip to former Labour blue collar voters.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1271153920941928451?s=200 -
That doesn't really sound like much of a scandal.CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
I've been doing a decent amount of exercise. Ran so many daily 5ks my knee started to protest. Got back into biking which I've pushed further and further - rode from Thornaby just south of the Tees to Newcastle yesterday. Monster ride. Epic.Black_Rook said:
But not at all surprising. There will have been a lot of boredom and anxiety eating going on during this period, and the proportion of gym users who've taken up outdoor exercise will be well short of 100%, despite the fact that we've had a lot of good weather.Andy_JS said:This is disappointing. I would have thought most people are exercising more than before.
"The public has been snacking more in lockdown and, despite increases in sales of bikes and exercise equipment, overall activity levels appear to have dropped compared to before the pandemic"
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-07-24/experts-warn-over-huge-risk-of-covid-death-in-obese-people-as-gyms-reopen
This period of enforced inactivity - the prolonged closure of leisure facilities, and prohibition of sports - will likely have undone many years of effort to get the population more active, just as many people have also developed serious chocolate biscuit fixations. Alas, good habits are often as easy to lose as bad habits are hard to give up.
But I am depressed and working from home. Which makes snacky goodness not just possible but essential. A weekly beer night. With some midweek wee dram action. OK so I've finally decided that self medication isn't working and need professional attention. But weight management isn't exactly a priority at the moment.0 -
Well good luck in "smack the mole " government policy and well done on getting about a bit in this oppressive timeGarethoftheVale2 said:
We were planning to go to Malaga end of August for a week. We saw the writing on the wall and cancelled yesterday, rebooking to Malta. No guarantees that that will happen either.state_go_away said:
yes exactly - causes untold misery for all that rely on it and obviously stops people having a deserved break as well .Big_G_NorthWales said:This is a bitter blow to Spain's tourist industry
We went to Barcelona last weekend, and while many people were wearing masks, no-one seemed to following the instructions to stay at home.1 -
Syd Barrett, not the rest of Pink Floyd. I have probably listened to every song Barrett ever recorded, and read every book written about him - when I was 20 I could probably have had him as my specialist subject on Mastermind! But, 25 years on I have to say I think his music has aged very badly - I actually played "The Gnome" to my 8 month old son the other day and it wasn't out of place with the nonsense he listens to!RochdalePioneers said:
Sorry, but you're saying that Pink Floyd in contrast were *not* serious musicians? Its an opinion...isam said:
I used to be a big fan of early Floyd ft Syd, Piper at the Gates of Dawn, but now it sounds like absolute nonsense. Peter Green, in contrast, was a serious musician, and his music with Fleetwood Mac still sounds fantastic todaykinabalu said:
Yes strikingly similar stories.WhisperingOracle said:
Thanks for this. There are incredible similarities with Syd Barrett's story here ; those who were the most sensitive souls, and had a period of having their drinks spiked with LSD, often seem to have suffered the most negative consequences of hallucinogens. Both he and Barrett seem to have degenerated almost to drifters after these experiences, which they didn't plan or initiate.isam said:.
An incredibly sad story. The Man of the World documentary by the BBC is good. I think it is on iplayer, but no doubt will be shown again now he has sadly passed away. Spent his final years in Leigh-on-Sea I believeWhisperingOracle said:
My wife's family knew Peter Green's younger relatives, apparently. One of that generation of postwar East End Jewish boys drawn to the 'sixties creative industries ; Marc Bolan was another.isam said:RIP Peter Green
So sad. I loved Peter. This week I have been trying to learn Oh Well and Black Magic Woman on the guitar.
I think had you offered him his last twenty five years back in the late 70s/early 80s he wouldn't have believed it possible. It could have been a lot, lot worse.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6GB_c6d_2U
https://web.musicaficionado.com/main/article/Peter_Green_Article
More confident personalities of the era, acting with their own sense of agency, and most importantly not so enormously frightened and unsettled by the experience, seemed to have been the ones sometimes deriving more benefit from it ; and also generally seemed to have returned to the drug only rarely, if at all, afterwards.
And in both cases following the demise of the talented but vulnerable founding member the bands went on to enormous commercial success.
Nick Mason's Saucerful of Secrets. Fantastic band playing fantastic music. And the best thing on their setlist? Vegetable Man, which is literally - and gloriously - nonsense.
Green, on the other hand, is a genuine rock legend whose music aged beautifully1 -
I voted Plaid in the last Assembly Elections, the one where Leanne tried a form a rainbow coalition with UKIP and Andrew RT Davies. I won't be encouraging them to pull that stunt again.justin124 said:
I did not have a vote in Autumn 1997 - but have certainly not changed my mind.Very content if Johnson called a Referendum there to ascertain whether voters still wanted the Assembly. I am firmly of the Left but would vote Tory in a Tory v Plaid contest. Ditto in Scotland re-SNP.Mexicanpete said:
I voted "No" in 1998, but I am a convert now.justin124 said:
The last poll in Wales showed a big shift back to Labour.I believe it would be a mistake to extrapolate much from Welsh Assembly elections where turnout is much lower and party alleigances much looser. Were I on the electoral roll there, I would support the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party.Mexicanpete said:
I live near Bridgend, and I would have thought you are right, particularly with the fallout from the closure of the engine plant, but WAG rather than Johnson are taking the hit on that.justin124 said:
I doubt that. I would expect Labour to regain many - perhaps all - of the seats lost in Wales in 2019. Even if the Tories manage to retain a GB lead of 4% - 5% - compared with 11.7% last time - Labour should regain Bridgend - Delyn - Vale of Clwyd - Clwyd South.Wrexham would be another likely gain. Boundary changes may affect some outcomes , but in the context of a pro- Labour swing of 3% - 4% not very much.Mexicanpete said:
Labour are not very popular in the blue collar seats along the M4 corridor anyway. Boris Johnson by contrast is revered amongst people who considered Brexit to be the way forward.ydoethur said:
I ran a rough calculation based on the likely seats for Wales a few months back.GarethoftheVale2 said:
Yes they are keeping at 650 seats and a 5% threshold. There are 5 protected seats: Orkney and Shetland, Na h-Eileanan an Iar, Ynys Mon, and 2 for Isle of Wight.CorrectHorseBattery said:Can somebody explain the new boundaries as I thought the seat numbers were remaining the same
The main difference with the current boundaries is that Wales loses its over-representation so will likely lose 8 seats. The main winner region is likely to be the South East, which could gain 7 seats.
The new boundaries should benefit the Tories but not as much as before the election. Electoral Calculus' current estimate is Con +6, Lab -3, SNP -2, Plaid - 1 vs 2019.
The boundaries will be based on the electorates from March 2020. So I'm guessing the review will kick off either end of this year or early next year.
I came up with Labour 14, Tory 12, Plaid 2 and a few which were too close to call. With Ynys Môn getting protected status, I’m going to hesitantly put that in the Tory column. I know it’s very close, but it’s 1951 since a sitting MP was defeated there. That leaves three I’m struggling with - two in Carmarthenshire which might go any one of three ways and one in the North.
Any reduction for Wales will hurt Labour pretty badly because the Valleys are their last stronghold and they will inevitably take a pounding.
If Johnson can avoid any blame for any post-Covid and post- Brexit economic damage, and I believe Wales will be caned, particularly post-Brexit, he will pick up a few more seats outside Cardiff. I am sure he has his scapegoats lined up already.
Labour have a very frosty relationship with the TV broadcast media here in Wales. Local BBC news is very hostile. Drakeford's stock has risen through Covid, but he and the Assembly Government are compared poorly against Johnson's performance, particularly in relation to the "late" opening of retail and hospitality sectors. Still no mandatory mask wearing in Wales, so Drakeford and Gething are being hammered in the media (rightly?) for that.
Johnson is an enigma here in Wales. Historically the Welsh were hostile to English Tory Toffs, but Johnson seems to transcend that.
Sorry about the date. In the immortal words of Ken Bruce "One year out!"0 -
IIRC Dr Owen wrote a book on the medical and mental effects of leadership. His opinion was that the only modern PM who came through the experience unscathed was John Major - who hated the job by the end, so was perfectly content to give it up.Philip_Thompson said:
I mean that the job is [unless your name is Trump and you don't care about it] a very physically and emotionally draining job that requires a lot of time and effort. You only need to look at before and after pictures of PMs and Presidents to see how they age in the job - even May who wasn't there long. And its not simply about appearances, or the natural effect of 3, 4 or 8 years.Flanner said:
What do you mean by "ages"?Philip_Thompson said:The presidency rapidly ages people. I rather hope that Biden will be self-aware enough that if it becomes necessary he would rather retire than in four years time be proud of himself for being able to say "person woman man camera tv"
Most heads of government look a lot older after a stint in power than the time they've spent in office. But the only one I'm aware who actually developed clinically-diagnosed dementia in office was Wilson (who did then retire). And, as far as I'm aware, there's not a shred of evidence being PM accelerated his dementia
FWIW, my own experience is that dementia usually sets in once someone's stopped being active (eg Thatcher and I think Reagan, but lots of people I know socially)
Is there any evidence the old in office get demented relatively quickly? I'd have said that the evidence from QEII and Benedict XV is that having a real job in extreme old age keeps your brain working.
Can Biden cope with the demands of the job? Maybe he can now, but can he in 2 years time? If he can't, I hope he realises that and retires with dignity.
Edit: PS you name Thatcher and Reagan and there is evidence for both that mental changes began before they retired.1 -
(1) If you open nightclubs and you have crowded bars, cases will rise.state_go_away said:
for all the good it has done Spain . Masks do sod all because most people (especially those who dont want to wear them do not use them properly. All that disgusting garbage as well .rcs1000 said:
Would you support surgeons not wearing masks during surgery? Because the principle is the same: you don't spread your particles far when you breath or cough.state_go_away said:
I thought Spain with all its mask wearing would be safe - are we sure mask wearing does anything?Mexicanpete said:
For goodness sake, Spain was on the radar for 14 days quarantine remaining in place when it was lifted elsewhere (and at the last minute Span). Johnson is behind the 8 ball again.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Of course it isRH1992 said:
But to me this is how the system should be working. Spain reports a spike and we act accordingly and swiftly. If we dithered then we'd be making the same mistakes as at the start of the pandemic.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Most holiday providers have COVID guarantees now but there's always going to be some who lose out, it's a risk you take when you go abroad right now.Philip_Thompson said:
Whack-a-mole is entirely appropriate here. Deal with problems as and when they pop up until they stop popping up.CorrectHorseBattery said:
This is UK wide and top marks to HMG for taking this decision
Take the blinkers off!
(2) Where is your evidence for the statement that most people do not wear them properly.
Now you can argue that there are *more effective* strategies for managing CV19. But when you say they do "sod all", you are clearly talking shit, because even if a mask caught just 10% on average of particulate matter leaving someone's mouth, it would still cut transmission markedly.3 -
It requires the utmost discretion, looking after all those privet matters.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Don't get this whole hedge manager business - who'd have thought there was quite SO much money in supervising shrubbery?CorrectHorseBattery said:1 -
I hope you are right.justin124 said:
But those are not new factors compared with 2019 - and by 2024 Brexit is likely to be a peripheral issue.Mexicanpete said:
Brexit and latent racism.justin124 said:
Why would Labour under Starmer do worse in Wales than Corbyn in 2019 - or even 2017? Particularly in the context of a swing to Labour across GB of circa 4%! Never seen it happen there before.Mexicanpete said:
Good point. My anecdotal antenna makes me nervous that the Conservatives are still in the ascent as your poll suggests. I just don't see where the improvement for Labour comes from.CatMan said:
I hate to get all HYFUD, but the last poll that was taken doesn't seem to show thatMexicanpete said:
The Johnson factor may make Conservatives most seats next year.ydoethur said:
I don’t know. My impression is their support is patchy. I think Labour are in advanced and possibly terminal decay in the north outside Bangor, while in Dyfed-Powys they’ve been weak for years.Mexicanpete said:I think you overstate Labour's unpopularity in the Bay. That is not to say a rainbow coalition of non-Labour AMs will not form the next Government.
But I would expect a Labour-Plaid coalition next year if only because I cannot see any other route to 30 other than Tory majority (which ain’t happening).
But I can see Tories - most seats in 2021 (albeit it’s not the likeliest outcome) and taking power in 2025-26.
I know, I know, I live in a parallel universe where Johnson appears to be a catastrophe. But he is working class hero catnip to former Labour blue collar voters.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1271153920941928451?s=200 -
According to my wife's milieu, that again takes in Peter Green - and which erstwhile TV man Jonathan Meades supposedly confirmed - Barrett involuntarily and unknowingly had his coffee spiked with LSD for about a month at the end of 1967, after which he wasn't the same.LadyG said:
Poor Syd was not sent mad by LSD. The drug might have accelerated his decline, but the schizophrenia was priced in from the start.WhisperingOracle said:
Thanks for this. There are incredible similarities with Syd Barrett's story here ; those who were the most sensitive souls, and had a period of having their drinks spiked with LSD, often seem to have suffered the most negative consequences of hallucinogens. Both he and Barrett seem to have degenerated almost to drifters after these experiences, which they didn't plan or initiate.isam said:.
An incredibly sad story. The Man of the World documentary by the BBC is good. I think it is on iplayer, but no doubt will be shown again now he has sadly passed away. Spent his final years in Leigh-on-Sea I believeWhisperingOracle said:
My wife's family knew Peter Green's younger relatives, apparently. One of that generation of postwar East End Jewish boys drawn to the 'sixties creative industries ; Marc Bolan was another.isam said:RIP Peter Green
So sad. I loved Peter. This week I have been trying to learn Oh Well and Black Magic Woman on the guitar.
I think had you offered him his last twenty five years back in the late 70s/early 80s he wouldn't have believed it possible. It could have been a lot, lot worse.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6GB_c6d_2U
https://web.musicaficionado.com/main/article/Peter_Green_Article
More confident personalities of the era, acting with their own sense of agency, and most importantly not so enormously frightened and unsettled by the experience, seemed to have been the ones sometimes deriving more benefit from it ; and also generally seemed to have returned to the drug only rarely, if at all, afterwards.
I know the man who lived with him in his last years in London, in the famous Earls Court flat with the striped floor - the location used on the iconic cover of his solo album.
With so many people obviously off on their own interstellar journeys at the time, though, the exact truth may be hard to unweave.0 -
Sympathies and although I do respect your earnest endeavours to comply with guidance , if it is making you depressed and you want to do something to make you happier I would just do it and sod the covid -19 overregulationsRochdalePioneers said:
I've been doing a decent amount of exercise. Ran so many daily 5ks my knee started to protest. Got back into biking which I've pushed further and further - rode from Thornaby just south of the Tees to Newcastle yesterday. Monster ride. Epic.Black_Rook said:
But not at all surprising. There will have been a lot of boredom and anxiety eating going on during this period, and the proportion of gym users who've taken up outdoor exercise will be well short of 100%, despite the fact that we've had a lot of good weather.Andy_JS said:This is disappointing. I would have thought most people are exercising more than before.
"The public has been snacking more in lockdown and, despite increases in sales of bikes and exercise equipment, overall activity levels appear to have dropped compared to before the pandemic"
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-07-24/experts-warn-over-huge-risk-of-covid-death-in-obese-people-as-gyms-reopen
This period of enforced inactivity - the prolonged closure of leisure facilities, and prohibition of sports - will likely have undone many years of effort to get the population more active, just as many people have also developed serious chocolate biscuit fixations. Alas, good habits are often as easy to lose as bad habits are hard to give up.
But I am depressed and working from home. Which makes snacky goodness not just possible but essential. A weekly beer night. With some midweek wee dram action. OK so I've finally decided that self medication isn't working and need professional attention. But weight management isn't exactly a priority at the moment.0 -
People who didn't want Brexit seem to say it wont be an issue for Starmer to have been the Brexit blocker he was, but it will be terrible for Boris who will have to own the consequences etc... Aren't they just talking their book?Mexicanpete said:
I hope you are right.justin124 said:
But those are not new factors compared with 2019 - and by 2024 Brexit is likely to be a peripheral issue.Mexicanpete said:
Brexit and latent racism.justin124 said:
Why would Labour under Starmer do worse in Wales than Corbyn in 2019 - or even 2017? Particularly in the context of a swing to Labour across GB of circa 4%! Never seen it happen there before.Mexicanpete said:
Good point. My anecdotal antenna makes me nervous that the Conservatives are still in the ascent as your poll suggests. I just don't see where the improvement for Labour comes from.CatMan said:
I hate to get all HYFUD, but the last poll that was taken doesn't seem to show thatMexicanpete said:
The Johnson factor may make Conservatives most seats next year.ydoethur said:
I don’t know. My impression is their support is patchy. I think Labour are in advanced and possibly terminal decay in the north outside Bangor, while in Dyfed-Powys they’ve been weak for years.Mexicanpete said:I think you overstate Labour's unpopularity in the Bay. That is not to say a rainbow coalition of non-Labour AMs will not form the next Government.
But I would expect a Labour-Plaid coalition next year if only because I cannot see any other route to 30 other than Tory majority (which ain’t happening).
But I can see Tories - most seats in 2021 (albeit it’s not the likeliest outcome) and taking power in 2025-26.
I know, I know, I live in a parallel universe where Johnson appears to be a catastrophe. But he is working class hero catnip to former Labour blue collar voters.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1271153920941928451?s=200
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