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TELEGRAPH: Next stop, masks in offices #TomorrowsPapersToday pic.twitter.com/bPNId86Blr
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Bang0
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Honestly nobody will come to the office to wear a mask . If you want to kill off city centres as well as High Streets then this policy will do it3
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The Government is completely and utterly out of direction and ideas. It is now throw at the wall and see what sticks3
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fpt for Gallowgate
Rosebay willowherb. Remember the name. Rosebay willowherb.
It is a beautiful wild flower that sprouted, unexpectedly, in bomb sites, after the Blitz
Rosebay willowherb
https://www.wildlifetrusts.org/wildlife-explorer/wildflowers/rosebay-willowherb1 -
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Breaking news - Ruth Bader Ginsberg has been hospitalised for an as yet unknown infection. Could have huge implications for the election of she kicks the bucket.0
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Trump is a shrieking baboon but in this he is right. China lied, millions diedwilliamglenn said:“They hit us with the plague”
https://twitter.com/nicolesganga/status/1283136594346680322?s=210 -
Will the Republicans be able to fill the (theoretical) vacant position before the election?MaxPB said:Breaking news - Ruth Bader Ginsberg has been hospitalised for an as yet unknown infection. Could have huge implications for the election of she kicks the bucket.
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Yes, they have a pretty solid senate majority.Gallowgate said:
Will the Republicans be able to fill the (theoretical) vacant position before the election?MaxPB said:Breaking news - Ruth Bader Ginsberg has been hospitalised for an as yet unknown infection. Could have huge implications for the election of she kicks the bucket.
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FPT but relevant
This is well said.Gallowgate said:
There are always opportunities after disasters. That’s what’s keeping me going.LadyG said:
I am really really trying hard to find positives. Reasons to be cheerful. But I just can't see ANY. It's the bleakest prospect for the country, if not the world, that I have known in my lifetime.DavidL said:
Well until very recently we have had all sorts of random rules stopping businesses from trading. In Scotland we still have them although there is some relaxation tomorrow. And we have combined the reopening with lots of rules about masks that scare people. It’s not helpful.LadyG said:
Too early to say for sure, but the initial data, and anecdata, are not good.DavidL said:
Much to early to say. May was a lockdown month indistinguishable from April. It’s hardly surprising that output didn’t change. It will be September when we get the August figures that we will have a clear idea.LadyG said:
Except the newest data does NOT suggest a V-shaped recovery.rkrkrk said:
Andy Haldane gave a speech on this recently, early signs are V shaped recovery.Benpointer said:LadyG said:
That's like saying all wars are bad, so there's no point in distinguishing between them.kle4 said:
It was always going to be horrendous. Clearly some horrendous outcomes are worse than others, but I'm not sure the difference between them will be all that apparent.LadyG said:
Economists expected a 5.5% lift in GDP, we got 1.8%RobD said:
That was during May though. It wasn't expected to bounce back then, was it?LadyG said:
A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020rcs1000 said:
Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.Benpointer said:Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp
Indeed, it could be worse than that. GDP has fallen by almost a quarter. The expected bounceback has been smaller than hoped.
https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918253891858432?s=20
If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more
Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War
I fear my pessimism is justified; everyone should pray I am wrong
https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1282919918334291969?s=20
The Falklands War was bad. The First World War was a total apocalypse.
A 5% fall in UK GDP is a really grisly recession, but we'd get through. A 20% fall in GDP in one year (with more pain to come?) is unprecedented. No one alive has ever experienced such a catastrophe. Who
knows what it might do to us, how it could change us
Trying to be positive, a 20% GDP reduction would take us back to GDP levels we had in 2003. Life was ok for most in 2003.
Not so terrible, looked at that way
Now I don't doubt Boris and Rishi can cock it up, but the key numbers to watch are still COVID cases.
We WILL have another lockdown if this gets out of control again. That's the danger.
It's going to be L. You read it here first
It is clear that large sectors of the economy - travel/leisure/entertainment/transport - are taking the most enormous hit. Much worse than anticipated.
I have just watched yet another entirely empty London bus pass my window. Fifth in a row.
No one is moving in London. According to reports, the Treasury has been horrified at the scale of the seize-up.
Feels L-shaped to me.
And if anything I expect this crisis to surprise on the downside, even now.
I guess it might be good for the badgers, or something.
Everyone is getting hung up about the fact this is a bad disaster, but not thinking about what comes next. After the Spanish Flu disaster came the roaring twenties. A decade after WWII was "you've never had it so good".
Yes there will be a recession this year. Yes it will be bad. Yes a lot of people are going to lose their jobs, their livelihoods, their businesses and that is awful. But the silver lining is I expect over the next decade post-COVID and post-Brexit to see a period of high economic growth the likes of which we have not seen in decades.0 -
Please show your workingsPhilip_Thompson said:FPT but relevant
This is well said.Gallowgate said:
There are always opportunities after disasters. That’s what’s keeping me going.LadyG said:
I am really really trying hard to find positives. Reasons to be cheerful. But I just can't see ANY. It's the bleakest prospect for the country, if not the world, that I have known in my lifetime.DavidL said:
Well until very recently we have had all sorts of random rules stopping businesses from trading. In Scotland we still have them although there is some relaxation tomorrow. And we have combined the reopening with lots of rules about masks that scare people. It’s not helpful.LadyG said:
Too early to say for sure, but the initial data, and anecdata, are not good.DavidL said:
Much to early to say. May was a lockdown month indistinguishable from April. It’s hardly surprising that output didn’t change. It will be September when we get the August figures that we will have a clear idea.LadyG said:
Except the newest data does NOT suggest a V-shaped recovery.rkrkrk said:
Andy Haldane gave a speech on this recently, early signs are V shaped recovery.Benpointer said:LadyG said:
That's like saying all wars are bad, so there's no point in distinguishing between them.kle4 said:
It was always going to be horrendous. Clearly some horrendous outcomes are worse than others, but I'm not sure the difference between them will be all that apparent.LadyG said:
Economists expected a 5.5% lift in GDP, we got 1.8%RobD said:
That was during May though. It wasn't expected to bounce back then, was it?LadyG said:
A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020rcs1000 said:
Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.Benpointer said:Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp
Indeed, it could be worse than that. GDP has fallen by almost a quarter. The expected bounceback has been smaller than hoped.
https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918253891858432?s=20
If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more
Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War
I fear my pessimism is justified; everyone should pray I am wrong
https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1282919918334291969?s=20
The Falklands War was bad. The First World War was a total apocalypse.
A 5% fall in UK GDP is a really grisly recession, but we'd get through. A 20% fall in GDP in one year (with more pain to come?) is unprecedented. No one alive has ever experienced such a catastrophe. Who
knows what it might do to us, how it could change us
Trying to be positive, a 20% GDP reduction would take us back to GDP levels we had in 2003. Life was ok for most in 2003.
Not so terrible, looked at that way
Now I don't doubt Boris and Rishi can cock it up, but the key numbers to watch are still COVID cases.
We WILL have another lockdown if this gets out of control again. That's the danger.
It's going to be L. You read it here first
It is clear that large sectors of the economy - travel/leisure/entertainment/transport - are taking the most enormous hit. Much worse than anticipated.
I have just watched yet another entirely empty London bus pass my window. Fifth in a row.
No one is moving in London. According to reports, the Treasury has been horrified at the scale of the seize-up.
Feels L-shaped to me.
And if anything I expect this crisis to surprise on the downside, even now.
I guess it might be good for the badgers, or something.
Everyone is getting hung up about the fact this is a bad disaster, but not thinking about what comes next. After the Spanish Flu disaster came the roaring twenties. A decade after WWII was "you've never had it so good".
Yes there will be a recession this year. Yes it will be bad. Yes a lot of people are going to lose their jobs, their livelihoods, their businesses and that is awful. But the silver lining is I expect over the next decade post-COVID and post-Brexit to see a period of high economic growth the likes of which we have not seen in decades.1 -
Can't the Democrats filibuster until the election? There's certainly a precedent they could follow.MaxPB said:
Yes, they have a pretty solid senate majority.Gallowgate said:
Will the Republicans be able to fill the (theoretical) vacant position before the election?MaxPB said:Breaking news - Ruth Bader Ginsberg has been hospitalised for an as yet unknown infection. Could have huge implications for the election of she kicks the bucket.
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Brazil already reporting 1,200 dead today. Could be a record for them0
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I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent0
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What was the excuse the Republicans used to prevent Obama filling the vacant seat in 2016?Philip_Thompson said:
Can't the Democrats filibuster until the election? There's certainly a precedent they could follow.MaxPB said:
Yes, they have a pretty solid senate majority.Gallowgate said:
Will the Republicans be able to fill the (theoretical) vacant position before the election?MaxPB said:Breaking news - Ruth Bader Ginsberg has been hospitalised for an as yet unknown infection. Could have huge implications for the election of she kicks the bucket.
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I am old enough to remember when Kerala was the communist poster-child of covid-containment
https://twitter.com/rolebuild/status/1283146267250524163?s=200 -
Filibuster for Supreme Court nominations has been removed.Philip_Thompson said:
Can't the Democrats filibuster until the election? There's certainly a precedent they could follow.MaxPB said:
Yes, they have a pretty solid senate majority.Gallowgate said:
Will the Republicans be able to fill the (theoretical) vacant position before the election?MaxPB said:Breaking news - Ruth Bader Ginsberg has been hospitalised for an as yet unknown infection. Could have huge implications for the election of she kicks the bucket.
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it will have the opposite effect though. Wouldn't mind so much if it was effective in getting rid of covid -19 but it isn'tBig_G_NorthWales said:I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent
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They didn't with Kavanaugh, but maybe. 🤷♂️Philip_Thompson said:
Can't the Democrats filibuster until the election? There's certainly a precedent they could follow.MaxPB said:
Yes, they have a pretty solid senate majority.Gallowgate said:
Will the Republicans be able to fill the (theoretical) vacant position before the election?MaxPB said:Breaking news - Ruth Bader Ginsberg has been hospitalised for an as yet unknown infection. Could have huge implications for the election of she kicks the bucket.
I see it's been removed.0 -
They've looked at the predix of 100,000+ dead in the next wave and freaked out. Masks might stop that.state_go_away said:
it will have the opposite effect though. Wouldn't mind so much if it was effective in getting rid of covid -19 but it isn'tBig_G_NorthWales said:I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent
However, the price will be a tragically fucked economy0 -
Obama didn't have a senate majority. They refused to confirm by majority vote, not by filibuster.Benpointer said:
What was the excuse the Republicans used to prevent Obama filling the vacant seat in 2016?Philip_Thompson said:
Can't the Democrats filibuster until the election? There's certainly a precedent they could follow.MaxPB said:
Yes, they have a pretty solid senate majority.Gallowgate said:
Will the Republicans be able to fill the (theoretical) vacant position before the election?MaxPB said:Breaking news - Ruth Bader Ginsberg has been hospitalised for an as yet unknown infection. Could have huge implications for the election of she kicks the bucket.
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Kavanaugh was November 2017. Filibustering until the next election would have been rather tough then!MaxPB said:
They didn't with Kavanaugh, but maybe. 🤷♂️Philip_Thompson said:
Can't the Democrats filibuster until the election? There's certainly a precedent they could follow.MaxPB said:
Yes, they have a pretty solid senate majority.Gallowgate said:
Will the Republicans be able to fill the (theoretical) vacant position before the election?MaxPB said:Breaking news - Ruth Bader Ginsberg has been hospitalised for an as yet unknown infection. Could have huge implications for the election of she kicks the bucket.
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We missed the boat on masks. Compliance is going to remain pathetically low.1
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Go to work don't go to work
Stay at home don't stay at home.
Wear a mask don't wear a mask.
Use your good old fashioned British Common Sense and follow the clear and simple guidance
Incidentally as Shagger was days ago insistent that we all go back to the office and preferrably spend £12 a day on a twatty coffee and a crap salad, I have a simple solution to "and wear a mask".
We know that its Not Safe. To be indoors without a mask unless someone wants to make money from you in which case its not only very safe its patriotically safe. Simply enforce everyone going back to the office, and then hold a mandatory away day in a bijou eatery struggling to survive. That way you don't need to wear a mask and will be very safe.0 -
Was this 100K+ based on the "model" that was used in early spring to predict 250K dead by the summer?LadyG said:
They've looked at the predix of 100,000+ dead in the next wave and freaked out. Masks might stop that.state_go_away said:
it will have the opposite effect though. Wouldn't mind so much if it was effective in getting rid of covid -19 but it isn'tBig_G_NorthWales said:I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent
However, the price will be a tragically fucked economy
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I don't know, these things can change quickly.CorrectHorseBattery said:We missed the boat on masks. Compliance is going to remain pathetically low.
Today I went to Homebase and was surprised how many people were wearing them. Maybe as many as 10% of the customers were doing so . . . which is unprecedentedly high around here!0 -
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Only a vaccine will rid us of this deadly virus but as the economy opens and more close contact becomes inevitable, face mask use is likely to become the norm as is evident in China and the far eaststate_go_away said:
it will have the opposite effect though. Wouldn't mind so much if it was effective in getting rid of covid -19 but it isn'tBig_G_NorthWales said:I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent
1 -
Tradition not to fill the post in election year but to leave for next president.Benpointer said:
What was the excuse the Republicans used to prevent Obama filling the vacant seat in 2016?Philip_Thompson said:
Can't the Democrats filibuster until the election? There's certainly a precedent they could follow.MaxPB said:
Yes, they have a pretty solid senate majority.Gallowgate said:
Will the Republicans be able to fill the (theoretical) vacant position before the election?MaxPB said:Breaking news - Ruth Bader Ginsberg has been hospitalised for an as yet unknown infection. Could have huge implications for the election of she kicks the bucket.
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Given nearly 50k died with a lockdown, 250k dying without it certainly seems plausible to me.rottenborough said:
Was this 100K+ based on the "model" that was used in early spring to predict 250K dead by the summer?LadyG said:
They've looked at the predix of 100,000+ dead in the next wave and freaked out. Masks might stop that.state_go_away said:
it will have the opposite effect though. Wouldn't mind so much if it was effective in getting rid of covid -19 but it isn'tBig_G_NorthWales said:I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent
However, the price will be a tragically fucked economy0 -
Not if non compliance leads to a £100 fine which the government has confirmed it willCorrectHorseBattery said:We missed the boat on masks. Compliance is going to remain pathetically low.
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Wonder what that means for the HKD dollar fix. Could send the HK economy into a massive tailspin if it doesn't hold.LadyG said:Here comes the Cold War
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1283152869676515328?s=200 -
Odds on vaccine this year?0
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NonsenseCorrectHorseBattery said:We missed the boat on masks. Compliance is going to remain pathetically low.
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Ginsberg has been in hospital many times before, and she's 87 - far younger than the Queen has a few years left in her yet.
But were she to theoretically succumb I think the GOP would want to get her replaced ASAP. If Biden got to nominate I think it would be nice if Merrick Garland got the job !0 -
Filibustering hasn't been removed for SCOTUS appointments as far as I know. Its been explicitly kept for them.MaxPB said:
They didn't with Kavanaugh, but maybe. 🤷♂️Philip_Thompson said:
Can't the Democrats filibuster until the election? There's certainly a precedent they could follow.MaxPB said:
Yes, they have a pretty solid senate majority.Gallowgate said:
Will the Republicans be able to fill the (theoretical) vacant position before the election?MaxPB said:Breaking news - Ruth Bader Ginsberg has been hospitalised for an as yet unknown infection. Could have huge implications for the election of she kicks the bucket.
I see it's been removed.0 -
And yet Sweden hasn't had 40K deaths.Philip_Thompson said:
Given nearly 50k died with a lockdown, 250k dying without it certainly seems plausible to me.rottenborough said:
Was this 100K+ based on the "model" that was used in early spring to predict 250K dead by the summer?LadyG said:
They've looked at the predix of 100,000+ dead in the next wave and freaked out. Masks might stop that.state_go_away said:
it will have the opposite effect though. Wouldn't mind so much if it was effective in getting rid of covid -19 but it isn'tBig_G_NorthWales said:I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent
However, the price will be a tragically fucked economy0 -
What's Sweden's population density?rottenborough said:
And yet Sweden hasn't had 40K deaths.Philip_Thompson said:
Given nearly 50k died with a lockdown, 250k dying without it certainly seems plausible to me.rottenborough said:
Was this 100K+ based on the "model" that was used in early spring to predict 250K dead by the summer?LadyG said:
They've looked at the predix of 100,000+ dead in the next wave and freaked out. Masks might stop that.state_go_away said:
it will have the opposite effect though. Wouldn't mind so much if it was effective in getting rid of covid -19 but it isn'tBig_G_NorthWales said:I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent
However, the price will be a tragically fucked economy1 -
We've got 60-70k dead in Wave 1: that began in Feb.rottenborough said:
Was this 100K+ based on the "model" that was used in early spring to predict 250K dead by the summer?LadyG said:
They've looked at the predix of 100,000+ dead in the next wave and freaked out. Masks might stop that.state_go_away said:
it will have the opposite effect though. Wouldn't mind so much if it was effective in getting rid of covid -19 but it isn'tBig_G_NorthWales said:I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent
However, the price will be a tragically fucked economy
100,000 dead from this September to next June is far from outlandish1 -
As far as I am aware this is a new projection from Sage and is worst caserottenborough said:
Was this 100K+ based on the "model" that was used in early spring to predict 250K dead by the summer?LadyG said:
They've looked at the predix of 100,000+ dead in the next wave and freaked out. Masks might stop that.state_go_away said:
it will have the opposite effect though. Wouldn't mind so much if it was effective in getting rid of covid -19 but it isn'tBig_G_NorthWales said:I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent
However, the price will be a tragically fucked economy0 -
Here's where we find out only the US buy up 3/4 the world's supply and the EU procurement scheme the remaining quarter.HYUFD said:0 -
Work in your office mask up. Work from Spoons or Costa, no need for a mask.
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Evens. Two candidates (Oxford, Moderna) are set to deliver this year, one of them should work.CorrectHorseBattery said:Odds on vaccine this year?
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Irrelevant. It's urbanisation level that counts.Philip_Thompson said:
What's Sweden's population density?rottenborough said:
And yet Sweden hasn't had 40K deaths.Philip_Thompson said:
Given nearly 50k died with a lockdown, 250k dying without it certainly seems plausible to me.rottenborough said:
Was this 100K+ based on the "model" that was used in early spring to predict 250K dead by the summer?LadyG said:
They've looked at the predix of 100,000+ dead in the next wave and freaked out. Masks might stop that.state_go_away said:
it will have the opposite effect though. Wouldn't mind so much if it was effective in getting rid of covid -19 but it isn'tBig_G_NorthWales said:I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent
However, the price will be a tragically fucked economy4 -
Having Gove and Johnson saying opposite things about facemasks within a couple of days of each other didn't look good.CorrectHorseBattery said:The Government is completely and utterly out of direction and ideas. It is now throw at the wall and see what sticks
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Oh it must be the case, the mighty Big G has proclaimed it thus! Don't you ever tire of posting crap?Big_G_NorthWales said:
NonsenseCorrectHorseBattery said:We missed the boat on masks. Compliance is going to remain pathetically low.
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It is mid point, I think. Reasonable worst case is 170,000Big_G_NorthWales said:
As far as I am aware this is a new projection from Sage and is worst caserottenborough said:
Was this 100K+ based on the "model" that was used in early spring to predict 250K dead by the summer?LadyG said:
They've looked at the predix of 100,000+ dead in the next wave and freaked out. Masks might stop that.state_go_away said:
it will have the opposite effect though. Wouldn't mind so much if it was effective in getting rid of covid -19 but it isn'tBig_G_NorthWales said:I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent
However, the price will be a tragically fucked economy0 -
What an opportunity for SKS. Any idea why he is not taking advantage of it?CorrectHorseBattery said:The Government is completely and utterly out of direction and ideas. It is now throw at the wall and see what sticks
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That's surely better than evens then?MaxPB said:
Evens. Two candidates (Oxford, Moderna) are set to deliver this year, one of them should work.CorrectHorseBattery said:Odds on vaccine this year?
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I think we've already got priority shipments secured for the Moderna vaccine. We'd have had to give them up if we'd joined the EU scheme, which is the main reason we didn't.Pulpstar said:
Here's where we find out only the US buy up 3/4 the world's supply and the EU procurement scheme the remaining quarter.HYUFD said:1 -
McConnell didn't even start hearings, there was no vote.MaxPB said:
Obama didn't have a senate majority. They refused to confirm by majority vote, not by filibuster.Benpointer said:
What was the excuse the Republicans used to prevent Obama filling the vacant seat in 2016?Philip_Thompson said:
Can't the Democrats filibuster until the election? There's certainly a precedent they could follow.MaxPB said:
Yes, they have a pretty solid senate majority.Gallowgate said:
Will the Republicans be able to fill the (theoretical) vacant position before the election?MaxPB said:Breaking news - Ruth Bader Ginsberg has been hospitalised for an as yet unknown infection. Could have huge implications for the election of she kicks the bucket.
1 -
My wife and I went into town today and much more face mask use was evident, and it does look as if non wearing may well become socially unacceptablePhilip_Thompson said:
I don't know, these things can change quickly.CorrectHorseBattery said:We missed the boat on masks. Compliance is going to remain pathetically low.
Today I went to Homebase and was surprised how many people were wearing them. Maybe as many as 10% of the customers were doing so . . . which is unprecedentedly high around here!
And they are not mandated here in Wales as of now1 -
There is a big difference between a viable vaccine being hastily approved, and it then being widely distributed in billions of doses that workMaxPB said:
Evens. Two candidates (Oxford, Moderna) are set to deliver this year, one of them should work.CorrectHorseBattery said:Odds on vaccine this year?
Next year is possible0 -
The front page of the Telegraph makes it look like the sight of The Truss has given Gove a semi.2
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ok - sounds good.MaxPB said:
I think we've already got priority shipments secured for the Moderna vaccine. We'd have had to give them up if we'd joined the EU scheme, which is the main reason we didn't.Pulpstar said:
Here's where we find out only the US buy up 3/4 the world's supply and the EU procurement scheme the remaining quarter.HYUFD said:0 -
Anecdotally, same here: noticeably more mask usage since the announcement they will be required from 24th in shops.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My wife and I went into town today and much more face mask use was evident, and it does look as if non wearing may well become socially unacceptablePhilip_Thompson said:
I don't know, these things can change quickly.CorrectHorseBattery said:We missed the boat on masks. Compliance is going to remain pathetically low.
Today I went to Homebase and was surprised how many people were wearing them. Maybe as many as 10% of the customers were doing so . . . which is unprecedentedly high around here!
And they are not mandated here in Wales as of now0 -
Not sure I agree. Three weeks ago I went to Waitrose with a mask that I didn’t wear as no one else was. Today I wore it and most were wearing them (more than 80%) brits are for the most happy to do what they are toldCorrectHorseBattery said:We missed the boat on masks. Compliance is going to remain pathetically low.
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We have secured first place in line for the Oxford vaccine and second place for Moderna. If shipments begin in September then we have a fairly good chance of getting a significant number of doses before the year is out.LadyG said:
There is a big difference between a viable vaccine being hastily approved, and it then being widely distributed in billions of doses that workMaxPB said:
Evens. Two candidates (Oxford, Moderna) are set to deliver this year, one of them should work.CorrectHorseBattery said:Odds on vaccine this year?
Next year is possible0 -
New York went from who-needs-a-mask to wear-a-mask-you-selfish-bastard in about a fortnight, apparently. People are now accosted, or even beaten, for NOT wearing a mask. In a city that prides itself on individual libertyBig_G_NorthWales said:
My wife and I went into town today and much more face mask use was evident, and it does look as if non wearing may well become socially unacceptablePhilip_Thompson said:
I don't know, these things can change quickly.CorrectHorseBattery said:We missed the boat on masks. Compliance is going to remain pathetically low.
Today I went to Homebase and was surprised how many people were wearing them. Maybe as many as 10% of the customers were doing so . . . which is unprecedentedly high around here!
And they are not mandated here in Wales as of now
These things can change quick1 -
Lol - I wish you hadn't pointed that out!SandyRentool said:The front page of the Telegraph makes it look like the sight of The Truss has given Gove a semi.
1 -
There you are. Simply ban WFH (or an emergency tax on it) plus masks have to be worn in the office. But look, the local coffee shack would live to welcome you for sufficient cash. Its not safe to sit in your own office whereonly your team go. It is safe to sit in Spoons though. And unless you go voluntarily they will use carrot and stick to force you.SandyRentool said:Work in your office mask up. Work from Spoons or Costa, no need for a mask.
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May I just gently say you are quite an expert on that subjectCorrectHorseBattery said:
Oh it must be the case, the mighty Big G has proclaimed it thus! Don't you ever tire of posting crap?Big_G_NorthWales said:
NonsenseCorrectHorseBattery said:We missed the boat on masks. Compliance is going to remain pathetically low.
2 -
Masks have been compulsory in NHS administration offices since June 15. It hasn't been a problem.state_go_away said:Honestly nobody will come to the office to wear a mask . If you want to kill off city centres as well as High Streets then this policy will do it
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Well my company is ignoring the Government advice and not sending anyone back to work anytime soon0
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i truly hope you are right. But that's a lot of IFsMaxPB said:
We have secured first place in line for the Oxford vaccine and second place for Moderna. If shipments begin in September then we have a fairly good chance of getting a significant number of doses before the year is out.LadyG said:
There is a big difference between a viable vaccine being hastily approved, and it then being widely distributed in billions of doses that workMaxPB said:
Evens. Two candidates (Oxford, Moderna) are set to deliver this year, one of them should work.CorrectHorseBattery said:Odds on vaccine this year?
Next year is possible1 -
I learn from the bestBig_G_NorthWales said:
May I just gently say you are quite an expert on that subjectCorrectHorseBattery said:
Oh it must be the case, the mighty Big G has proclaimed it thus! Don't you ever tire of posting crap?Big_G_NorthWales said:
NonsenseCorrectHorseBattery said:We missed the boat on masks. Compliance is going to remain pathetically low.
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Sweden has a similar urbanisation to the UK but a much much higher level of single occupancy housing.Benpointer said:
Irrelevant. It's urbanisation level that counts.Philip_Thompson said:
What's Sweden's population density?rottenborough said:
And yet Sweden hasn't had 40K deaths.Philip_Thompson said:
Given nearly 50k died with a lockdown, 250k dying without it certainly seems plausible to me.rottenborough said:
Was this 100K+ based on the "model" that was used in early spring to predict 250K dead by the summer?LadyG said:
They've looked at the predix of 100,000+ dead in the next wave and freaked out. Masks might stop that.state_go_away said:
it will have the opposite effect though. Wouldn't mind so much if it was effective in getting rid of covid -19 but it isn'tBig_G_NorthWales said:I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent
However, the price will be a tragically fucked economy0 -
The figure I read in the report this morning was 120,000 between this winter and next June as a worst case scenarioLadyG said:
It is mid point, I think. Reasonable worst case is 170,000Big_G_NorthWales said:
As far as I am aware this is a new projection from Sage and is worst caserottenborough said:
Was this 100K+ based on the "model" that was used in early spring to predict 250K dead by the summer?LadyG said:
They've looked at the predix of 100,000+ dead in the next wave and freaked out. Masks might stop that.state_go_away said:
it will have the opposite effect though. Wouldn't mind so much if it was effective in getting rid of covid -19 but it isn'tBig_G_NorthWales said:I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent
However, the price will be a tragically fucked economy0 -
I genuinely think today's economic figures have spooked the government. I reckon initial indications of them were behind the rather strange, sudden Johnson exhortation to go back to work, which seemed to come from nowhere. And now masks.
Half the country doesn't trust or believe a word they say. The other half love them.
But you can't resurrect an economy on half the population.
And confidence won't return until a coherent, thought through strategy emerges that is not obviously motivated by short term advantage.
Not holding my breath.0 -
Malmo still continues to be basically untouched by Corona virus.0
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Er... that's one if.LadyG said:
i truly hope you are right. But that's a lot of IFsMaxPB said:
We have secured first place in line for the Oxford vaccine and second place for Moderna. If shipments begin in September then we have a fairly good chance of getting a significant number of doses before the year is out.LadyG said:
There is a big difference between a viable vaccine being hastily approved, and it then being widely distributed in billions of doses that workMaxPB said:
Evens. Two candidates (Oxford, Moderna) are set to deliver this year, one of them should work.CorrectHorseBattery said:Odds on vaccine this year?
Next year is possible0 -
I love it when you talk physics teacher. And obviously, I don't know, but the post WW2 boom was partly about repurposing military advances for civilian ends. So what tech has come out of the last four months that we want to keep?LadyG said:
Please show your workingsPhilip_Thompson said:FPT but relevant
This is well said.Gallowgate said:
There are always opportunities after disasters. That’s what’s keeping me going.LadyG said:
I am really really trying hard to find positives. Reasons to be cheerful. But I just can't see ANY. It's the bleakest prospect for the country, if not the world, that I have known in my lifetime.DavidL said:
Well until very recently we have had all sorts of random rules stopping businesses from trading. In Scotland we still have them although there is some relaxation tomorrow. And we have combined the reopening with lots of rules about masks that scare people. It’s not helpful.LadyG said:
Too early to say for sure, but the initial data, and anecdata, are not good.DavidL said:
Much to early to say. May was a lockdown month indistinguishable from April. It’s hardly surprising that output didn’t change. It will be September when we get the August figures that we will have a clear idea.LadyG said:
Except the newest data does NOT suggest a V-shaped recovery.rkrkrk said:
Andy Haldane gave a speech on this recently, early signs are V shaped recovery.Benpointer said:LadyG said:
That's like saying all wars are bad, so there's no point in distinguishing between them.kle4 said:
It was always going to be horrendous. Clearly some horrendous outcomes are worse than others, but I'm not sure the difference between them will be all that apparent.LadyG said:
Economists expected a 5.5% lift in GDP, we got 1.8%RobD said:
That was during May though. It wasn't expected to bounce back then, was it?LadyG said:
A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020rcs1000 said:
Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.Benpointer said:Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp
Indeed, it could be worse than that. GDP has fallen by almost a quarter. The expected bounceback has been smaller than hoped.
https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918253891858432?s=20
If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more
Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War
I fear my pessimism is justified; everyone should pray I am wrong
https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1282919918334291969?s=20
The Falklands War was bad. The First World War was a total apocalypse.
A 5% fall in UK GDP is a really grisly recession, but we'd get through. A 20% fall in GDP in one year (with more pain to come?) is unprecedented. No one alive has ever experienced such a catastrophe. Who
knows what it might do to us, how it could change us
Trying to be positive, a 20% GDP reduction would take us back to GDP levels we had in 2003. Life was ok for most in 2003.
Not so terrible, looked at that way
Now I don't doubt Boris and Rishi can cock it up, but the key numbers to watch are still COVID cases.
We WILL have another lockdown if this gets out of control again. That's the danger.
It's going to be L. You read it here first
It is clear that large sectors of the economy - travel/leisure/entertainment/transport - are taking the most enormous hit. Much worse than anticipated.
I have just watched yet another entirely empty London bus pass my window. Fifth in a row.
No one is moving in London. According to reports, the Treasury has been horrified at the scale of the seize-up.
Feels L-shaped to me.
And if anything I expect this crisis to surprise on the downside, even now.
I guess it might be good for the badgers, or something.
Everyone is getting hung up about the fact this is a bad disaster, but not thinking about what comes next. After the Spanish Flu disaster came the roaring twenties. A decade after WWII was "you've never had it so good".
Yes there will be a recession this year. Yes it will be bad. Yes a lot of people are going to lose their jobs, their livelihoods, their businesses and that is awful. But the silver lining is I expect over the next decade post-COVID and post-Brexit to see a period of high economic growth the likes of which we have not seen in decades.
The obvious one is that everyone can videoconference from home now. We might not want to do it all day every day, but it'll improve productivity as we learn how to use it long-term.
I'd hope that we remember to be better about hygiene, because frankly we've been decadent for ages. Less winter bugs, less peaky pressure on the health service.
If property prices in London fall, that's probably good for the productive bits of the economy, if bad for whoever actually owns the West End. And whilst I'll miss aspects of London as was, parts of it were held up by people putting up with poorish pay and highish living costs with the profits siphoned off by property owners. That's needed fixing for a while, even if this is a pretty brutal way of doing it.
But mainly, I wanted to say that Rosebay Willowherb almost feels like a good name for an alter ego, if one were in the market for such a thing. She's seen a lot. Not in her prime, but still has it.0 -
Has he been seen in a mask yet ?IshmaelZ said:
What an opportunity for SKS. Any idea why he is not taking advantage of it?CorrectHorseBattery said:The Government is completely and utterly out of direction and ideas. It is now throw at the wall and see what sticks
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A few papers commenting on Tory taxes.
Believe it when I see it but lol0 -
What are they seeing that we are not?CorrectHorseBattery said:The Government is completely and utterly out of direction and ideas. It is now throw at the wall and see what sticks
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Not in NHS Business Services though.Foxy said:
Masks have been compulsory in NHS administration offices since June 15. It hasn't been a problem.state_go_away said:Honestly nobody will come to the office to wear a mask . If you want to kill off city centres as well as High Streets then this policy will do it
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Even Patrick Minfodd believes we will get zero rate tariffs with the EU.
So it's definitely going to be WTO terms with maximum tariffs.0 -
It's two tbf, if it works and if it starts delivering in September, the same is true for the Oxford one.Benpointer said:
Er... that's one if.LadyG said:
i truly hope you are right. But that's a lot of IFsMaxPB said:
We have secured first place in line for the Oxford vaccine and second place for Moderna. If shipments begin in September then we have a fairly good chance of getting a significant number of doses before the year is out.LadyG said:
There is a big difference between a viable vaccine being hastily approved, and it then being widely distributed in billions of doses that workMaxPB said:
Evens. Two candidates (Oxford, Moderna) are set to deliver this year, one of them should work.CorrectHorseBattery said:Odds on vaccine this year?
Next year is possible0 -
Indeed even media reports are indicating wider useBenpointer said:
Anecdotally, same here: noticeably more mask usage since the announcement they will be required from 24th in shops.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My wife and I went into town today and much more face mask use was evident, and it does look as if non wearing may well become socially unacceptablePhilip_Thompson said:
I don't know, these things can change quickly.CorrectHorseBattery said:We missed the boat on masks. Compliance is going to remain pathetically low.
Today I went to Homebase and was surprised how many people were wearing them. Maybe as many as 10% of the customers were doing so . . . which is unprecedentedly high around here!
And they are not mandated here in Wales as of now
It will become the norm quicker than most expect and without police prosecutions
0 -
The IFs are implicit, clearly.Benpointer said:
Er... that's one if.LadyG said:
i truly hope you are right. But that's a lot of IFsMaxPB said:
We have secured first place in line for the Oxford vaccine and second place for Moderna. If shipments begin in September then we have a fairly good chance of getting a significant number of doses before the year is out.LadyG said:
There is a big difference between a viable vaccine being hastily approved, and it then being widely distributed in billions of doses that workMaxPB said:
Evens. Two candidates (Oxford, Moderna) are set to deliver this year, one of them should work.CorrectHorseBattery said:Odds on vaccine this year?
Next year is possible
The biggest one of all, but unspoken, is IF we get a working vaccine
I am skeptical we will have one by "September". It would be the fastest vaccine approval in history by a massive margin
0 -
Not sure if this has been picked up elsewhere but an extraordinary day in New Zealand politics with Todd Muller stepping down as leader of the opposition National Party after just 53 days as leader.
Fair to say his tenure made IDS's spell as Tory leader look like a triumph:
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/07/the-mishaps-that-led-national-party-leader-todd-muller-to-quit-after-just-53-days.html
The new leader is Judith Collins who had stood against Simon Bridges when he won the National leadership in 2018 and is, to follow the analogy, more of the "Michael Howard" character.
New Zealand votes in September and current polls (pre Muller's departure) give Jacinda Ardern's Labor Party a huge lead.0 -
All it relates to is a review of capital gains tax, given the VAT cut and stamp holiday announced last weekCorrectHorseBattery said:A few papers commenting on Tory taxes.
Believe it when I see it but lol0 -
It's just something to get used to (consider women who always wear nijabs in public). In my office it's the commuting on public transport that puts people off, not the mask issue.Foxy said:
Masks have been compulsory in NHS administration offices since June 15. It hasn't been a problem.state_go_away said:Honestly nobody will come to the office to wear a mask . If you want to kill off city centres as well as High Streets then this policy will do it
0 -
Speaking of masks, just got back from King County Elections headquarters, were EVERYONE who enters the building is required to wear a mask AT ALL TIMES except when getting a quick drink of water or eating lunch in (socially distanced) break room.
Went down for mandatory election observer training; need to attend a session every 2 years in order to observe on behalf of either King Co Democrats or King Co Republicans. At this 2-hour training, there were five places allocated for each food group: 5 Dems signed up & showed up; 2 Reps signed up but only 1 showed. BTW, for session scheduled for Thursday, 5 Ds signed up, 0 Rs.
After orientation & questions, our group toured KCE ballot processing setup, which takes up one floor of a big 2-story building outside of Seattle. Not many working there right now, but then only 1k or so ballots for Aug 4 primary have been returned by "submarine" voters: active-duty military stationed overseas, or in the case of Trident sub crews, underseas.
Bulk of active registered voters - over 1.3 million currently in King Co - will receive their ballots via mail later this week. Returned ballots are accepted for counting IF returned or postmarked by Aug 4 AND voter signature is verified by comparison with voter sig on file at election office.
KCE is working hard to protect permanent and many temporary staff needed to process, tabulate and account for returned ballots. At the height of activity just before & after Primary Day - and Election Day this fall - place is like Santa's Workshop with lots of different things happening, but all designed for one purpose - to accurately count the votes and canvass the returns.
First thing yours truly had to do when I arrived at KCE was have my temperature checked - I failed the test! Because I had walked the last mile & a half there, and arrived overheated. Since I was way early, I sat down, read a book, and re-took the test after I'd cooled down - passed with flying colors.
BTW, only people on buses I took to & from KCE who were NOT wearing masks were two fucking idiots - which I pointed out to them & the driver as nicely as needed.
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Naughty, naughty! They should be:Gallowgate said:
Not in NHS Business Services though.Foxy said:
Masks have been compulsory in NHS administration offices since June 15. It hasn't been a problem.state_go_away said:Honestly nobody will come to the office to wear a mask . If you want to kill off city centres as well as High Streets then this policy will do it
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/face-masks-and-coverings-to-be-worn-by-all-nhs-hospital-staff-and-visitors0 -
Too busy taking the knee. And writing all those letters.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Has he been seen in a mask yet ?IshmaelZ said:
What an opportunity for SKS. Any idea why he is not taking advantage of it?CorrectHorseBattery said:The Government is completely and utterly out of direction and ideas. It is now throw at the wall and see what sticks
0 -
It's been steadily on the rise for weeks now.CorrectHorseBattery said:We missed the boat on masks. Compliance is going to remain pathetically low.
0 -
I just went to a London shopping centre late tonight. I passed 4 people. They were all wearing masksPhilip_Thompson said:
I don't know, these things can change quickly.CorrectHorseBattery said:We missed the boat on masks. Compliance is going to remain pathetically low.
Today I went to Homebase and was surprised how many people were wearing them. Maybe as many as 10% of the customers were doing so . . . which is unprecedentedly high around here!0 -
I had a very vivid dream around January that I was on the run from the authorities. My crime? Treachery for not consuming enough.
How long before we get there?0 -
I started wearing a mask in shops yesterday in order to get used to it. I always can’t wait to get back to the car to take it off though. I would hate to wear it for 8 hours in an office...Charles said:
I just went to a London shopping centre late tonight. I passed 4 people. They were all wearing masksPhilip_Thompson said:
I don't know, these things can change quickly.CorrectHorseBattery said:We missed the boat on masks. Compliance is going to remain pathetically low.
Today I went to Homebase and was surprised how many people were wearing them. Maybe as many as 10% of the customers were doing so . . . which is unprecedentedly high around here!0 -
BASTILLE DAY FESTIVAL OF DEMOCRACY - Alabama, Maine, Texas
Polls in all three states close today, July 14 at 8pm Eastern Daylight Time, in just under two hours.0 -
I agree that "If shipments begin in September..." is a big IF.LadyG said:
The IFs are implicit, clearly.Benpointer said:
Er... that's one if.LadyG said:
i truly hope you are right. But that's a lot of IFsMaxPB said:
We have secured first place in line for the Oxford vaccine and second place for Moderna. If shipments begin in September then we have a fairly good chance of getting a significant number of doses before the year is out.LadyG said:
There is a big difference between a viable vaccine being hastily approved, and it then being widely distributed in billions of doses that workMaxPB said:
Evens. Two candidates (Oxford, Moderna) are set to deliver this year, one of them should work.CorrectHorseBattery said:Odds on vaccine this year?
Next year is possible
The biggest one of all, but unspoken, is IF we get a working vaccine
I am skeptical we will have one by "September". It would be the fastest vaccine approval in history by a massive margin0 -
I know Stockholm and Goteborg (#1 & #3 Swedish cities well). Density is far lower than LondonBenpointer said:
Irrelevant. It's urbanisation level that counts.Philip_Thompson said:
What's Sweden's population density?rottenborough said:
And yet Sweden hasn't had 40K deaths.Philip_Thompson said:
Given nearly 50k died with a lockdown, 250k dying without it certainly seems plausible to me.rottenborough said:
Was this 100K+ based on the "model" that was used in early spring to predict 250K dead by the summer?LadyG said:
They've looked at the predix of 100,000+ dead in the next wave and freaked out. Masks might stop that.state_go_away said:
it will have the opposite effect though. Wouldn't mind so much if it was effective in getting rid of covid -19 but it isn'tBig_G_NorthWales said:I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent
However, the price will be a tragically fucked economy0 -
You'll NEVER be able to hang that rap on me, copper!dixiedean said:I had a very vivid dream around January that I was on the run from the authorities. My crime? Treachery for not consuming enough.
How long before we get there?0 -
If these Corbynite nutters want to leave Labour then go right ahead. The less morons the better. We can get back to winning elections and they can stick with their student politics0
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Watch this spaceMaxPB said:
We have secured first place in line for the Oxford vaccine and second place for Moderna. If shipments begin in September then we have a fairly good chance of getting a significant number of doses before the year is out.LadyG said:
There is a big difference between a viable vaccine being hastily approved, and it then being widely distributed in billions of doses that workMaxPB said:
Evens. Two candidates (Oxford, Moderna) are set to deliver this year, one of them should work.CorrectHorseBattery said:Odds on vaccine this year?
Next year is possible0 -
Better than the other way roundBenpointer said:
Lol - I wish you hadn't pointed that out!SandyRentool said:The front page of the Telegraph makes it look like the sight of The Truss has given Gove a semi.
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This discussion has been closed.