Not sure if this has been picked up elsewhere but an extraordinary day in New Zealand politics with Todd Muller stepping down as leader of the opposition National Party after just 53 days as leader.
Fair to say his tenure made IDS's spell as Tory leader look like a triumph:
The new leader is Judith Collins who had stood against Simon Bridges when he won the National leadership in 2018 and is, to follow the analogy, more of the "Michael Howard" character.
New Zealand votes in September and current polls (pre Muller's departure) give Jacinda Ardern's Labor Party a huge lead.
Which begs the question why he bothered to stand for the post in the first place
I can't help but think that all the stuff about face masks is a bit of a distraction - perhaps deliberately so, though I'm usually more of a cock-up than a conspiracy theorist.
So far this week we've had the USA and some Tory backbenchers, led by the indomitable IDS, doing all they can to damage relations with China - some on here have joined in with cold war rhetoric. We've also got more detail on Brexit bureaucracy, which looks a nightmare, and something we won't be ready for in 5 months. Our trading relationships are not looking good at all, though they may improve if the lunatic is removed from the White House. Then we've got the devastating impact of Covid on both health and the economy.
Anybody sensible may think that Covid is enough to be going on with, without declaring a cold, trade war with China, and arrangements that will make trade with Europe much more expensive and difficult.
And yet we're obsessing with face coverings (which incidentally it seems sensible to wear inside when practical).
Bu hey ho, let's just worry about face masks and, of course, the culture war, and what school Starmer went to.
Evens. Two candidates (Oxford, Moderna) are set to deliver this year, one of them should work.
There is a big difference between a viable vaccine being hastily approved, and it then being widely distributed in billions of doses that work
Next year is possible
We have secured first place in line for the Oxford vaccine and second place for Moderna. If shipments begin in September then we have a fairly good chance of getting a significant number of doses before the year is out.
Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?
Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.
A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020
If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more
Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War
That was during May though. It wasn't expected to bounce back then, was it?
Economists expected a 5.5% lift in GDP, we got 1.8%
I fear my pessimism is justified; everyone should pray I am wrong
It was always going to be horrendous. Clearly some horrendous outcomes are worse than others, but I'm not sure the difference between them will be all that apparent.
That's like saying all wars are bad, so there's no point in distinguishing between them.
The Falklands War was bad. The First World War was a total apocalypse.
A 5% fall in UK GDP is a really grisly recession, but we'd get through. A 20% fall in GDP in one year (with more pain to come?) is unprecedented. No one alive has ever experienced such a catastrophe. Who knows what it might do to us, how it could change us
Trying to be positive, a 20% GDP reduction would take us back to GDP levels we had in 2003. Life was ok for most in 2003.
Not so terrible, looked at that way
Andy Haldane gave a speech on this recently, early signs are V shaped recovery.
Now I don't doubt Boris and Rishi can cock it up, but the key numbers to watch are still COVID cases.
We WILL have another lockdown if this gets out of control again. That's the danger.
Except the newest data does NOT suggest a V-shaped recovery.
It's going to be L. You read it here first
Much to early to say. May was a lockdown month indistinguishable from April. It’s hardly surprising that output didn’t change. It will be September when we get the August figures that we will have a clear idea.
Too early to say for sure, but the initial data, and anecdata, are not good.
It is clear that large sectors of the economy - travel/leisure/entertainment/transport - are taking the most enormous hit. Much worse than anticipated.
I have just watched yet another entirely empty London bus pass my window. Fifth in a row.
No one is moving in London. According to reports, the Treasury has been horrified at the scale of the seize-up.
Feels L-shaped to me.
Well until very recently we have had all sorts of random rules stopping businesses from trading. In Scotland we still have them although there is some relaxation tomorrow. And we have combined the reopening with lots of rules about masks that scare people. It’s not helpful.
I am really really trying hard to find positives. Reasons to be cheerful. But I just can't see ANY. It's the bleakest prospect for the country, if not the world, that I have known in my lifetime.
And if anything I expect this crisis to surprise on the downside, even now.
I guess it might be good for the badgers, or something.
There are always opportunities after disasters. That’s what’s keeping me going.
This is well said.
Everyone is getting hung up about the fact this is a bad disaster, but not thinking about what comes next. After the Spanish Flu disaster came the roaring twenties. A decade after WWII was "you've never had it so good".
Yes there will be a recession this year. Yes it will be bad. Yes a lot of people are going to lose their jobs, their livelihoods, their businesses and that is awful. But the silver lining is I expect over the next decade post-COVID and post-Brexit to see a period of high economic growth the likes of which we have not seen in decades.
So the worst economic crash of the modern age 2030ish, and a subsequent decade of depression & rise of sundry totalitarianisms? I think we know what happens next.
I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent
it will have the opposite effect though. Wouldn't mind so much if it was effective in getting rid of covid -19 but it isn't
They've looked at the predix of 100,000+ dead in the next wave and freaked out. Masks might stop that.
However, the price will be a tragically fucked economy
Was this 100K+ based on the "model" that was used in early spring to predict 250K dead by the summer?
Given nearly 50k died with a lockdown, 250k dying without it certainly seems plausible to me.
And yet Sweden hasn't had 40K deaths.
What's Sweden's population density?
Irrelevant. It's urbanisation level that counts.
I know Stockholm and Goteborg (#1 & #3 Swedish cities well). Density is far lower than London
Used to work with a guy whose father was US Ambassador to Sweden in 1960s, at the time he was a student but did visit his folks there at time or two.
Only thing I remember from what he told me, was that both father & son appreciated the sites of Stockholm - most esp high summer nude sunbathing by very attractive Swedish women festooning the city's many islands.
Don't think I agree with Sweden's Covid strategy - but sunlight IS a superb disinfectant!
Evens. Two candidates (Oxford, Moderna) are set to deliver this year, one of them should work.
There is a big difference between a viable vaccine being hastily approved, and it then being widely distributed in billions of doses that work
Next year is possible
We have secured first place in line for the Oxford vaccine and second place for Moderna. If shipments begin in September then we have a fairly good chance of getting a significant number of doses before the year is out.
I can't help but think that all the stuff about face masks is a bit of a distraction - perhaps deliberately so, though I'm usually more of a cock-up than a conspiracy theorist.
So far this week we've had the USA and some Tory backbenchers, led by the indomitable IDS, doing all they can to damage relations with China - some on here have joined in with cold war rhetoric. We've also got more detail on Brexit bureaucracy, which looks a nightmare, and something we won't be ready for in 5 months. Our trading relationships are not looking good at all, though they may improve if the lunatic is removed from the White House. Then we've got the devastating impact of Covid on both health and the economy.
Anybody sensible may think that Covid is enough to be going on with, without declaring a cold, trade war with China, and arrangements that will make trade with Europe much more expensive and difficult.
And yet we're obsessing with face coverings (which incidentally it seems sensible to wear inside when practical).
Bu hey ho, let's just worry about face masks and, of course, the culture war, and what school Starmer went to.
Yes, it looks as if when Trump whistles, our government jumps.
On the other hand stopping 5G for a few years should solve the Coronavirus problem...
Which begs the question why he bothered to stand for the post in the first place
Bridges faced huge problems going up against Ardern who, most observers seem to accept, handled the Covid-19 virus extremely well. By mid-May, National were 26 points behind Labor and facing electoral annihilation in September so basically they panicked.
Muller was an old guard candidate, he was Jim Bolger's Exec Assistant and spoke up for rural communities and farmers who are the backbone of National support.
He just couldn't cut it as Party leader and was a disaster. He was more socially conservative than Bridges or John Key and was a "back to the roots" candidate but Ardern and the media tore him to pieces and he basically quit before the caucus turned on him.
I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent
it will have the opposite effect though. Wouldn't mind so much if it was effective in getting rid of covid -19 but it isn't
They've looked at the predix of 100,000+ dead in the next wave and freaked out. Masks might stop that.
However, the price will be a tragically fucked economy
Was this 100K+ based on the "model" that was used in early spring to predict 250K dead by the summer?
Given nearly 50k died with a lockdown, 250k dying without it certainly seems plausible to me.
And yet Sweden hasn't had 40K deaths.
What's Sweden's population density?
Irrelevant. It's urbanisation level that counts.
I know Stockholm and Goteborg (#1 & #3 Swedish cities well). Density is far lower than London
Used to work with a guy whose father was US Ambassador to Sweden in 1960s, at the time he was a student but did visit his folks there at time or two.
Only thing I remember from what he told me, was that both father & son appreciated the sites of Stockholm - most esp high summer nude sunbathing by very attractive Swedish women festooning the city's many islands.
Don't think I agree with Sweden's Covid strategy - but sunlight IS a superb disinfectant!
I once dated a delightful Swedish girl who I met in a castle in Estonia
Breaking news - Ruth Bader Ginsberg has been hospitalised for an as yet unknown infection. Could have huge implications for the election of she kicks the bucket.
Well fuck.
She’s a tough old bird; don’t write her off just yet. (Fingers crossed...)
Evens. Two candidates (Oxford, Moderna) are set to deliver this year, one of them should work.
Moderna day their vaccine will be next year rather than this.
Pfizer will have 100million doses of their candidate vaccine produced before the end of the year - and should have trial results by then, too (they’re starting bulk production before any proof of efficacy).
They have the capacity for over a billion doses next year.
Which begs the question why he bothered to stand for the post in the first place
Bridges faced huge problems going up against Ardern who, most observers seem to accept, handled the Covid-19 virus extremely well. By mid-May, National were 26 points behind Labor and facing electoral annihilation in September so basically they panicked.
Muller was an old guard candidate, he was Jim Bolger's Exec Assistant and spoke up for rural communities and farmers who are the backbone of National support.
He just couldn't cut it as Party leader and was a disaster. He was more socially conservative than Bridges or John Key and was a "back to the roots" candidate but Ardern and the media tore him to pieces and he basically quit before the caucus turned on him.
Breaking news - Ruth Bader Ginsberg has been hospitalised for an as yet unknown infection. Could have huge implications for the election of she kicks the bucket.
Evens. Two candidates (Oxford, Moderna) are set to deliver this year, one of them should work.
Moderna day their vaccine will be next year rather than this.
Pfizer will have 100million doses of their candidate vaccine produced before the end of the year - and should have trial results by then, too (they’re starting bulk production before any proof of efficacy).
They have the capacity for over a billion doses next year.
Isn't AstraZeneca doing the same thing, starting production before trials are finished?
I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent
it will have the opposite effect though. Wouldn't mind so much if it was effective in getting rid of covid -19 but it isn't
They've looked at the predix of 100,000+ dead in the next wave and freaked out. Masks might stop that.
However, the price will be a tragically fucked economy
Was this 100K+ based on the "model" that was used in early spring to predict 250K dead by the summer?
Given nearly 50k died with a lockdown, 250k dying without it certainly seems plausible to me.
And yet Sweden hasn't had 40K deaths.
What's Sweden's population density?
Irrelevant. It's urbanisation level that counts.
I know Stockholm and Goteborg (#1 & #3 Swedish cities well). Density is far lower than London
Used to work with a guy whose father was US Ambassador to Sweden in 1960s, at the time he was a student but did visit his folks there at time or two.
Only thing I remember from what he told me, was that both father & son appreciated the sites of Stockholm - most esp high summer nude sunbathing by very attractive Swedish women festooning the city's many islands.
Don't think I agree with Sweden's Covid strategy - but sunlight IS a superb disinfectant!
I once dated a delightful Swedish girl who I met in a castle in Estonia
PLEASE do share more - unless of course you're saving it for your autobiography.
I can't help but think that all the stuff about face masks is a bit of a distraction - perhaps deliberately so, though I'm usually more of a cock-up than a conspiracy theorist.
So far this week we've had the USA and some Tory backbenchers, led by the indomitable IDS, doing all they can to damage relations with China - some on here have joined in with cold war rhetoric. We've also got more detail on Brexit bureaucracy, which looks a nightmare, and something we won't be ready for in 5 months. Our trading relationships are not looking good at all, though they may improve if the lunatic is removed from the White House. Then we've got the devastating impact of Covid on both health and the economy.
Anybody sensible may think that Covid is enough to be going on with, without declaring a cold, trade war with China, and arrangements that will make trade with Europe much more expensive and difficult.
And yet we're obsessing with face coverings (which incidentally it seems sensible to wear inside when practical).
Bu hey ho, let's just worry about face masks and, of course, the culture war, and what school Starmer went to.
It was exactly the same with statues a couple of weeks ago. We had reached the end of days according to some of the drama queens on PB.
I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent
it will have the opposite effect though. Wouldn't mind so much if it was effective in getting rid of covid -19 but it isn't
They've looked at the predix of 100,000+ dead in the next wave and freaked out. Masks might stop that.
However, the price will be a tragically fucked economy
Was this 100K+ based on the "model" that was used in early spring to predict 250K dead by the summer?
Given nearly 50k died with a lockdown, 250k dying without it certainly seems plausible to me.
And yet Sweden hasn't had 40K deaths.
What's Sweden's population density?
Irrelevant. It's urbanisation level that counts.
I know Stockholm and Goteborg (#1 & #3 Swedish cities well). Density is far lower than London
Used to work with a guy whose father was US Ambassador to Sweden in 1960s, at the time he was a student but did visit his folks there at time or two.
Only thing I remember from what he told me, was that both father & son appreciated the sites of Stockholm - most esp high summer nude sunbathing by very attractive Swedish women festooning the city's many islands.
Don't think I agree with Sweden's Covid strategy - but sunlight IS a superb disinfectant!
I once dated a delightful Swedish girl who I met in a castle in Estonia
PLEASE do share more - unless of course you're saving it for your autobiography.
Gunilla von Stenbock. Only daughter of Count Stenbock - the Estonian government gave her the family castle (Kolga) back in 1991 but neglected to return the land that had paid the bills.
Breaking news - Ruth Bader Ginsberg has been hospitalised for an as yet unknown infection. Could have huge implications for the election of she kicks the bucket.
Evens. Two candidates (Oxford, Moderna) are set to deliver this year, one of them should work.
Moderna day their vaccine will be next year rather than this.
Pfizer will have 100million doses of their candidate vaccine produced before the end of the year - and should have trial results by then, too (they’re starting bulk production before any proof of efficacy).
They have the capacity for over a billion doses next year.
Isn't AstraZeneca doing the same thing, starting production before trials are finished?
Several programs are; many government funded. Pfizer are taking the financial risk themselves.
For all the criticisms of the pharmaceutical industry, we’d be in a far worse place without them.
I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent
it will have the opposite effect though. Wouldn't mind so much if it was effective in getting rid of covid -19 but it isn't
They've looked at the predix of 100,000+ dead in the next wave and freaked out. Masks might stop that.
However, the price will be a tragically fucked economy
Was this 100K+ based on the "model" that was used in early spring to predict 250K dead by the summer?
Given nearly 50k died with a lockdown, 250k dying without it certainly seems plausible to me.
And yet Sweden hasn't had 40K deaths.
What's Sweden's population density?
Irrelevant. It's urbanisation level that counts.
I know Stockholm and Goteborg (#1 & #3 Swedish cities well). Density is far lower than London
Used to work with a guy whose father was US Ambassador to Sweden in 1960s, at the time he was a student but did visit his folks there at time or two.
Only thing I remember from what he told me, was that both father & son appreciated the sites of Stockholm - most esp high summer nude sunbathing by very attractive Swedish women festooning the city's many islands.
Don't think I agree with Sweden's Covid strategy - but sunlight IS a superb disinfectant!
I once dated a delightful Swedish girl who I met in a castle in Estonia
PLEASE do share more - unless of course you're saving it for your autobiography.
Gunilla von Stenbock. Only daughter of Count Stenbock - the Estonian government gave her the family castle (Kolga) back in 1991 but neglected to return the land that had paid the bills.
It's hilarious because he's divesting himself of these types without even changing policies all that much yet, if at all. They're really just saying they don't like competent presentation, which is really odd.
Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?
Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.
A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020
If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more
Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War
That was during May though. It wasn't expected to bounce back then, was it?
Economists expected a 5.5% lift in GDP, we got 1.8%
I fear my pessimism is justified; everyone should pray I am wrong
It was always going to be horrendous. Clearly some horrendous outcomes are worse than others, but I'm not sure the difference between them will be all that apparent.
That's like saying all wars are bad, so there's no point in distinguishing between them.
The Falklands War was bad. The First World War was a total apocalypse.
A 5% fall in UK GDP is a really grisly recession, but we'd get through. A 20% fall in GDP in one year (with more pain to come?) is unprecedented. No one alive has ever experienced such a catastrophe. Who knows what it might do to us, how it could change us
Trying to be positive, a 20% GDP reduction would take us back to GDP levels we had in 2003. Life was ok for most in 2003.
Not so terrible, looked at that way
Andy Haldane gave a speech on this recently, early signs are V shaped recovery.
Now I don't doubt Boris and Rishi can cock it up, but the key numbers to watch are still COVID cases.
We WILL have another lockdown if this gets out of control again. That's the danger.
Except the newest data does NOT suggest a V-shaped recovery.
It's going to be L. You read it here first
Much to early to say. May was a lockdown month indistinguishable from April. It’s hardly surprising that output didn’t change. It will be September when we get the August figures that we will have a clear idea.
Too early to say for sure, but the initial data, and anecdata, are not good.
It is clear that large sectors of the economy - travel/leisure/entertainment/transport - are taking the most enormous hit. Much worse than anticipated.
I have just watched yet another entirely empty London bus pass my window. Fifth in a row.
No one is moving in London. According to reports, the Treasury has been horrified at the scale of the seize-up.
Feels L-shaped to me.
Well until very recently we have had all sorts of random rules stopping businesses from trading. In Scotland we still have them although there is some relaxation tomorrow. And we have combined the reopening with lots of rules about masks that scare people. It’s not helpful.
I am really really trying hard to find positives. Reasons to be cheerful. But I just can't see ANY. It's the bleakest prospect for the country, if not the world, that I have known in my lifetime.
And if anything I expect this crisis to surprise on the downside, even now.
I guess it might be good for the badgers, or something.
There are always opportunities after disasters. That’s what’s keeping me going.
This is well said.
Everyone is getting hung up about the fact this is a bad disaster, but not thinking about what comes next. After the Spanish Flu disaster came the roaring twenties. A decade after WWII was "you've never had it so good".
Yes there will be a recession this year. Yes it will be bad. Yes a lot of people are going to lose their jobs, their livelihoods, their businesses and that is awful. But the silver lining is I expect over the next decade post-COVID and post-Brexit to see a period of high economic growth the likes of which we have not seen in decades.
So the worst economic crash of the modern age 2030ish, and a subsequent decade of depression & rise of sundry totalitarianisms? I think we know what happens next.
I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent
it will have the opposite effect though. Wouldn't mind so much if it was effective in getting rid of covid -19 but it isn't
They've looked at the predix of 100,000+ dead in the next wave and freaked out. Masks might stop that.
However, the price will be a tragically fucked economy
Was this 100K+ based on the "model" that was used in early spring to predict 250K dead by the summer?
Given nearly 50k died with a lockdown, 250k dying without it certainly seems plausible to me.
And yet Sweden hasn't had 40K deaths.
What's Sweden's population density?
Irrelevant. It's urbanisation level that counts.
I know Stockholm and Goteborg (#1 & #3 Swedish cities well). Density is far lower than London
Used to work with a guy whose father was US Ambassador to Sweden in 1960s, at the time he was a student but did visit his folks there at time or two.
Only thing I remember from what he told me, was that both father & son appreciated the sites of Stockholm - most esp high summer nude sunbathing by very attractive Swedish women festooning the city's many islands.
Don't think I agree with Sweden's Covid strategy - but sunlight IS a superb disinfectant!
I once dated a delightful Swedish girl who I met in a castle in Estonia
PLEASE do share more - unless of course you're saving it for your autobiography.
Gunilla von Stenbock. Only daughter of Count Stenbock - the Estonian government gave her the family castle (Kolga) back in 1991 but neglected to return the land that had paid the bills.
Which begs the question why he bothered to stand for the post in the first place
Bridges faced huge problems going up against Ardern who, most observers seem to accept, handled the Covid-19 virus extremely well. By mid-May, National were 26 points behind Labor and facing electoral annihilation in September so basically they panicked.
Muller was an old guard candidate, he was Jim Bolger's Exec Assistant and spoke up for rural communities and farmers who are the backbone of National support.
He just couldn't cut it as Party leader and was a disaster. He was more socially conservative than Bridges or John Key and was a "back to the roots" candidate but Ardern and the media tore him to pieces and he basically quit before the caucus turned on him.
Muller also resorted to a safe cracker to open safe in the Leader of the Opposition's office, even though it turned out his office had the code to open it all the time.
Weirdest thing about this was Muller's response when questioned:
The Herald contacted Muller to ask about issues with accessing the safe. He said: “I’m not visible to details like that.”
Told the chain of events and asked if they were familiar, he said: “That wouldn’t particularly surprise me that it’s not familiar to me.” Muller then said he needed to go to take another call.
Which begs the question why he bothered to stand for the post in the first place
Bridges faced huge problems going up against Ardern who, most observers seem to accept, handled the Covid-19 virus extremely well. By mid-May, National were 26 points behind Labor and facing electoral annihilation in September so basically they panicked.
Muller was an old guard candidate, he was Jim Bolger's Exec Assistant and spoke up for rural communities and farmers who are the backbone of National support.
He just couldn't cut it as Party leader and was a disaster. He was more socially conservative than Bridges or John Key and was a "back to the roots" candidate but Ardern and the media tore him to pieces and he basically quit before the caucus turned on him.
Astonishing how badly things have gone wrong for them since Key retired, even in 2017 they finished well ahead of Labour but lost power because they wouldn't enter a dutch auction for Winston Peters' support.
Oh no! just learned that Ron Graham has died . He was the guy who invented (at the time ) the largest number ever used in a math's proof- the so called Graham's Number , a number so big its magnitude is impossible really to grasp
Evens. Two candidates (Oxford, Moderna) are set to deliver this year, one of them should work.
There is a big difference between a viable vaccine being hastily approved, and it then being widely distributed in billions of doses that work
Next year is possible
We have secured first place in line for the Oxford vaccine and second place for Moderna. If shipments begin in September then we have a fairly good chance of getting a significant number of doses before the year is out.
No wonder the EU were keener than our government on us joining their scheme!
And equally no doubt if we get enough vaccine doses for our country this year far from saying that was a job well done we will end up with left wingers saying global equitable distribution should be the priority!
It's hilarious because he's divesting himself of these types without even changing policies all that much yet, if at all. They're really just saying they don't like competent presentation, which is really odd.
Indeed. Starmer seems to have divested a lot of the Corbyn era. Policies aren't (As yet) amongst them.
I feel like the world is going insane. Face masks compulsory pretty much everywhere? For a disease which has allegedly killed about 50,000 people? Out of a population of 68 million? This is deranged. Next it will be kids in classrooms forced to wear masks. You won't be able to go outside your house without one. It's fucking creepy, who wants to live like this? (actually plenty of authoritarian personality types who love being told what to do by a government that they profess to hate and distrust).
Oh no! just learned that Ron Graham has died . He was the guy who invented (at the time ) the largest number ever used in a math's proof- the so called Graham's Number , a number so big its magnitude is impossible really to grasp
I would say discovered rather than invented though... Edit: if you somehow could hold in you head the whole number then your head would collapse as a black hole: that is not hyperbole either!
Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?
Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.
A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020
If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more
Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War
That was during May though. It wasn't expected to bounce back then, was it?
Economists expected a 5.5% lift in GDP, we got 1.8%
I fear my pessimism is justified; everyone should pray I am wrong
It was always going to be horrendous. Clearly some horrendous outcomes are worse than others, but I'm not sure the difference between them will be all that apparent.
That's like saying all wars are bad, so there's no point in distinguishing between them.
The Falklands War was bad. The First World War was a total apocalypse.
A 5% fall in UK GDP is a really grisly recession, but we'd get through. A 20% fall in GDP in one year (with more pain to come?) is unprecedented. No one alive has ever experienced such a catastrophe. Who knows what it might do to us, how it could change us
Trying to be positive, a 20% GDP reduction would take us back to GDP levels we had in 2003. Life was ok for most in 2003.
Not so terrible, looked at that way
Andy Haldane gave a speech on this recently, early signs are V shaped recovery.
Now I don't doubt Boris and Rishi can cock it up, but the key numbers to watch are still COVID cases.
We WILL have another lockdown if this gets out of control again. That's the danger.
Except the newest data does NOT suggest a V-shaped recovery.
It's going to be L. You read it here first
Much to early to say. May was a lockdown month indistinguishable from April. It’s hardly surprising that output didn’t change. It will be September when we get the August figures that we will have a clear idea.
Too early to say for sure, but the initial data, and anecdata, are not good.
It is clear that large sectors of the economy - travel/leisure/entertainment/transport - are taking the most enormous hit. Much worse than anticipated.
I have just watched yet another entirely empty London bus pass my window. Fifth in a row.
No one is moving in London. According to reports, the Treasury has been horrified at the scale of the seize-up.
Feels L-shaped to me.
Well until very recently we have had all sorts of random rules stopping businesses from trading. In Scotland we still have them although there is some relaxation tomorrow. And we have combined the reopening with lots of rules about masks that scare people. It’s not helpful.
I am really really trying hard to find positives. Reasons to be cheerful. But I just can't see ANY. It's the bleakest prospect for the country, if not the world, that I have known in my lifetime.
And if anything I expect this crisis to surprise on the downside, even now.
I guess it might be good for the badgers, or something.
There are always opportunities after disasters. That’s what’s keeping me going.
This is well said.
Everyone is getting hung up about the fact this is a bad disaster, but not thinking about what comes next. After the Spanish Flu disaster came the roaring twenties. A decade after WWII was "you've never had it so good".
Yes there will be a recession this year. Yes it will be bad. Yes a lot of people are going to lose their jobs, their livelihoods, their businesses and that is awful. But the silver lining is I expect over the next decade post-COVID and post-Brexit to see a period of high economic growth the likes of which we have not seen in decades.
So the worst economic crash of the modern age 2030ish, and a subsequent decade of depression & rise of sundry totalitarianisms? I think we know what happens next.
Yes but will the music improve ?
Let's hope we improve on Billy Cotton, Victor Sylvester and Vera Lynn.
Not sure if this has been picked up elsewhere but an extraordinary day in New Zealand politics with Todd Muller stepping down as leader of the opposition National Party after just 53 days as leader.
Fair to say his tenure made IDS's spell as Tory leader look like a triumph:
The new leader is Judith Collins who had stood against Simon Bridges when he won the National leadership in 2018 and is, to follow the analogy, more of the "Michael Howard" character.
New Zealand votes in September and current polls (pre Muller's departure) give Jacinda Ardern's Labor Party a huge lead.
It’s the Labour Party.
The Australian Labor Party uses the US spelling despite the fact it’s much the rarer spelling in Australian English (both spellings are available as I understand it).
I feel like the world is going insane. Face masks compulsory pretty much everywhere? For a disease which has allegedly killed about 50,000 people? Out of a population of 68 million? This is deranged. Next it will be kids in classrooms forced to wear masks. You won't be able to go outside your house without one. It's fucking creepy, who wants to live like this? (actually plenty of authoritarian personality types who love being told what to do by a government that they profess to hate and distrust).
I feel like the world is going insane. Face masks compulsory pretty much everywhere? For a disease which has allegedly killed about 50,000 people? Out of a population of 68 million? This is deranged. Next it will be kids in classrooms forced to wear masks. You won't be able to go outside your house without one. It's fucking creepy, who wants to live like this? (actually plenty of authoritarian personality types who love being told what to do by a government that they profess to hate and distrust).
And it is not going to be temporary.
There's no way it's permanent.
Permanent until the compulsory vaccine turns up I suppose.
I feel like the world is going insane. Face masks compulsory pretty much everywhere? For a disease which has allegedly killed about 50,000 people? Out of a population of 68 million? This is deranged. Next it will be kids in classrooms forced to wear masks. You won't be able to go outside your house without one. It's fucking creepy, who wants to live like this? (actually plenty of authoritarian personality types who love being told what to do by a government that they profess to hate and distrust).
And it is not going to be temporary.
There's no way it's permanent.
Permanent until the compulsory vaccine turns up I suppose.
You don't need to make it compulsory. There's probably be people who won't take it, but polls suggest a large majority will (~85%).
Oh no! just learned that Ron Graham has died . He was the guy who invented (at the time ) the largest number ever used in a math's proof- the so called Graham's Number , a number so big its magnitude is impossible really to grasp
I would say discovered rather than invented though... Edit: if you somehow could hold in you head the whole number then your head would collapse as a black hole: that is not hyperbole either!
I like the idea of a number so stupendously large that most of us can’t even really begin to grasp how big it is... and yet Wikipedia gives us the last twelve digits: ...262464195387
I feel like the world is going insane. Face masks compulsory pretty much everywhere? For a disease which has allegedly killed about 50,000 people? Out of a population of 68 million? This is deranged. Next it will be kids in classrooms forced to wear masks. You won't be able to go outside your house without one. It's fucking creepy, who wants to live like this? (actually plenty of authoritarian personality types who love being told what to do by a government that they profess to hate and distrust).
And it is not going to be temporary.
There's no way it's permanent.
If we're this worried about viruses in general why not just in case?
I feel like the world is going insane. Face masks compulsory pretty much everywhere? For a disease which has allegedly killed about 50,000 people? Out of a population of 68 million? This is deranged. Next it will be kids in classrooms forced to wear masks. You won't be able to go outside your house without one. It's fucking creepy, who wants to live like this? (actually plenty of authoritarian personality types who love being told what to do by a government that they profess to hate and distrust).
And it is not going to be temporary.
There's no way it's permanent.
Permanent until the compulsory vaccine turns up I suppose.
You don't need to make it compulsory. There's probably be people who won't take it, but polls suggest a large majority will (~85%).
When you have people by the balls their hearts and minds soon follow eh.
Oh no! just learned that Ron Graham has died . He was the guy who invented (at the time ) the largest number ever used in a math's proof- the so called Graham's Number , a number so big its magnitude is impossible really to grasp
I would say discovered rather than invented though... Edit: if you somehow could hold in you head the whole number then your head would collapse as a black hole: that is not hyperbole either!
I like the idea of a number so stupendously large that most of us can’t even really begin to grasp how big it is... and yet Wikipedia gives us the last twelve digits: ...262464195387
Naturally it ends with 7. Or is that unnaturally? What do our betting experts say?
I feel like the world is going insane. Face masks compulsory pretty much everywhere? For a disease which has allegedly killed about 50,000 people? Out of a population of 68 million? This is deranged. Next it will be kids in classrooms forced to wear masks. You won't be able to go outside your house without one. It's fucking creepy, who wants to live like this? (actually plenty of authoritarian personality types who love being told what to do by a government that they profess to hate and distrust).
And it is not going to be temporary.
There's no way it's permanent.
Permanent until the compulsory vaccine turns up I suppose.
You don't need to make it compulsory. There's probably be people who won't take it, but polls suggest a large majority will (~85%).
When you have people by the balls their hearts and minds soon follow eh.
I suppose you have the same attitude towards all the other vaccinations that are commonly given?
I feel like the world is going insane. Face masks compulsory pretty much everywhere? For a disease which has allegedly killed about 50,000 people? Out of a population of 68 million? This is deranged. Next it will be kids in classrooms forced to wear masks. You won't be able to go outside your house without one. It's fucking creepy, who wants to live like this? (actually plenty of authoritarian personality types who love being told what to do by a government that they profess to hate and distrust).
And it is not going to be temporary.
There's no way it's permanent.
Permanent until the compulsory vaccine turns up I suppose.
You don't need to make it compulsory. There's probably be people who won't take it, but polls suggest a large majority will (~85%).
When you have people by the balls their hearts and minds soon follow eh.
Just heard that the Tate is laying off up to 90% of its staff
London is burning down
Why? I was literally planning a trip to the Tate with a girl I’ve been dating yesterday.
No one is going out in central London. Foreign tourists have disappeared. City workers are gone.
People outside London don't grasp the scale of what is happening. A world city is cratering from the inside out. I presume the same is happening in NYC, Paris, and maybe elsewhere
I feel like the world is going insane. Face masks compulsory pretty much everywhere? For a disease which has allegedly killed about 50,000 people? Out of a population of 68 million? This is deranged. Next it will be kids in classrooms forced to wear masks. You won't be able to go outside your house without one. It's fucking creepy, who wants to live like this? (actually plenty of authoritarian personality types who love being told what to do by a government that they profess to hate and distrust).
And it is not going to be temporary.
There's no way it's permanent.
Permanent until the compulsory vaccine turns up I suppose.
You don't need to make it compulsory. There's probably be people who won't take it, but polls suggest a large majority will (~85%).
When you have people by the balls their hearts and minds soon follow eh.
I suppose you have the same attitude towards all the other vaccinations that are commonly given?
No but I have it towards a highly convenient, almost certainly not properly tested, rushed into production vaccine that will no doubt 'miraculously' appear in the not too distant future.
I feel like the world is going insane. Face masks compulsory pretty much everywhere? For a disease which has allegedly killed about 50,000 people? Out of a population of 68 million? This is deranged. Next it will be kids in classrooms forced to wear masks. You won't be able to go outside your house without one. It's fucking creepy, who wants to live like this? (actually plenty of authoritarian personality types who love being told what to do by a government that they profess to hate and distrust).
And it is not going to be temporary.
There's no way it's permanent.
Permanent until the compulsory vaccine turns up I suppose.
You don't need to make it compulsory. There's probably be people who won't take it, but polls suggest a large majority will (~85%).
When you have people by the balls their hearts and minds soon follow eh.
I suppose you have the same attitude towards all the other vaccinations that are commonly given?
No but I have it towards a highly convenient, almost certainly not properly tested, rushed into production vaccine that will no doubt 'miraculously' appear in the not too distant future.
It won't miraculously appear, it's been under development for months now, and in widespread testing.
"Judith Collins emerged on Tuesday night from a two-hour-long National caucus meeting as the party's new leader, promising to give the Government competition at the election.
"The Papakura MP, who first entered Parliament in 2002 and has long held leadership ambitions, was given the nod of approval from her colleagues after the shock resignation of Todd Muller on Tuesday morning.
"In her first speech as leader, Collins, surrounded by her caucus, said she felt privileged to become leader.
"She said New Zealand was faced with difficult economic times coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic and that it was crucial for Kiwis to have a "good policy platform and a choice as to who is going to lead them through what is actually starting to look like one of the worst economic times in living memory".
Wouldn't encouraging masking in ALL enclosed situations AND outdoors when closer than six feet, actually help the economy?
Certainly would personally feels better about going out & about & popping into stores & shops IF masking compliance was higher. And it is going up here in Seattle, but still a ways to go.
Wouldn't encouraging masking in ALL enclosed situations AND outdoors when closer than six feet, actually help the economy?
Certainly would personally feels better about going out & about & popping into stores & shops IF masking compliance was higher. And it is going up here in Seattle, but still a ways to go.
Knowing the English mentality, no it wouldn't. A lot of people might stubbornly stay at home as a way of protesting against the facemask rule. It's probably different in other countries, and in Scotland and Wales. Also, "hell is other people" is a surprisingly popular maxim in England in my experience, unlike virtually everywhere else on the planet.
Just heard that the Tate is laying off up to 90% of its staff
London is burning down
Why? I was literally planning a trip to the Tate with a girl I’ve been dating yesterday.
No one is going out in central London. Foreign tourists have disappeared. City workers are gone.
People outside London don't grasp the scale of what is happening. A world city is cratering from the inside out. I presume the same is happening in NYC, Paris, and maybe elsewhere
It's just like when the Luftwaffe bombed London, except perhaps worse. The only comparison that makes sense, I feel, is Hiroshima on the morning of 7 August 1945.
I feel like the world is going insane. Face masks compulsory pretty much everywhere? For a disease which has allegedly killed about 50,000 people? Out of a population of 68 million? This is deranged. Next it will be kids in classrooms forced to wear masks. You won't be able to go outside your house without one. It's fucking creepy, who wants to live like this? (actually plenty of authoritarian personality types who love being told what to do by a government that they profess to hate and distrust).
And it is not going to be temporary.
I'd recommend Christie Davies's book "The Strange Death of Moral Britain". He invented a new concept called "causalism" which IMO does a good job of explaining how we ended up with this mindset.
Just heard that the Tate is laying off up to 90% of its staff
London is burning down
Why? I was literally planning a trip to the Tate with a girl I’ve been dating yesterday.
No one is going out in central London. Foreign tourists have disappeared. City workers are gone.
People outside London don't grasp the scale of what is happening. A world city is cratering from the inside out. I presume the same is happening in NYC, Paris, and maybe elsewhere
Why is London like this? I drove through the centre of Bath at about 10pm last Saturday night, there were hordes of young people about, pubs looked to be doing a roaring trade. My northern hometown is pretty much back to normal everywhere, with mask wearing at less than 10% (quite possibly less than 1%). No queue for the supermarket either last half a dozen times I've been in. What makes London different (other than being an overpriced dump) that it's not bouncing back the same?
Just heard that the Tate is laying off up to 90% of its staff
London is burning down
Why? I was literally planning a trip to the Tate with a girl I’ve been dating yesterday.
No one is going out in central London. Foreign tourists have disappeared. City workers are gone.
People outside London don't grasp the scale of what is happening. A world city is cratering from the inside out. I presume the same is happening in NYC, Paris, and maybe elsewhere
Why is London like this? I drove through the centre of Bath at about 10pm last Saturday night, there were hordes of young people about, pubs looked to be doing a roaring trade. My northern hometown is pretty much back to normal everywhere, with mask wearing at less than 10% (quite possibly less than 1%). No queue for the supermarket either last half a dozen times I've been in. What makes London different (other than being an overpriced dump) that it's not bouncing back the same?
Maybe it's because most of the people who usually populate central London don't live in the general vicinity, whereas in most other towns and cities they do.
Just heard that the Tate is laying off up to 90% of its staff
London is burning down
Why? I was literally planning a trip to the Tate with a girl I’ve been dating yesterday.
No one is going out in central London. Foreign tourists have disappeared. City workers are gone.
People outside London don't grasp the scale of what is happening. A world city is cratering from the inside out. I presume the same is happening in NYC, Paris, and maybe elsewhere
Why is London like this? I drove through the centre of Bath at about 10pm last Saturday night, there were hordes of young people about, pubs looked to be doing a roaring trade. My northern hometown is pretty much back to normal everywhere, with mask wearing at less than 10% (quite possibly less than 1%). No queue for the supermarket either last half a dozen times I've been in. What makes London different (other than being an overpriced dump) that it's not bouncing back the same?
Maybe it's because most of the people who usually populate central London don't live in the general vicinity, whereas in most other towns and cities they do.
Yes, we are now seeing who are the true central Londoners ie excluding commuters and the answer is not many and a substantial number of central London property owners absentee foreigners who spend only a few months in the capital at most
Wouldn't encouraging masking in ALL enclosed situations AND outdoors when closer than six feet, actually help the economy?
Certainly would personally feels better about going out & about & popping into stores & shops IF masking compliance was higher. And it is going up here in Seattle, but still a ways to go.
Knowing the English mentality, no it wouldn't. A lot of people might stubbornly stay at home as a way of protesting against the facemask rule. It's probably different in other countries, and in Scotland and Wales. Also, "hell is other people" is a surprisingly popular maxim in England in my experience, unlike virtually everywhere else on the planet.
As far as I know no legal instrument has been passed to mandate masks in shops therefore the police can try and fine and we should all say charge me with an offence or go fornicate officer
Wouldn't encouraging masking in ALL enclosed situations AND outdoors when closer than six feet, actually help the economy?
Certainly would personally feels better about going out & about & popping into stores & shops IF masking compliance was higher. And it is going up here in Seattle, but still a ways to go.
Knowing the English mentality, no it wouldn't. A lot of people might stubbornly stay at home as a way of protesting against the facemask rule. It's probably different in other countries, and in Scotland and Wales. Also, "hell is other people" is a surprisingly popular maxim in England in my experience, unlike virtually everywhere else on the planet.
As far as I know no legal instrument has been passed to mandate masks in shops therefore the police can try and fine and we should all say charge me with an offence or go fornicate officer
Actually Regulations were passed by the government under the Public Health (Control of Diseases) Act 1984 this week giving the police full legal authority to impose a £100 fine for not wearing a mask in a shop
Wouldn't encouraging masking in ALL enclosed situations AND outdoors when closer than six feet, actually help the economy?
Certainly would personally feels better about going out & about & popping into stores & shops IF masking compliance was higher. And it is going up here in Seattle, but still a ways to go.
Knowing the English mentality, no it wouldn't. A lot of people might stubbornly stay at home as a way of protesting against the facemask rule. It's probably different in other countries, and in Scotland and Wales. Also, "hell is other people" is a surprisingly popular maxim in England in my experience, unlike virtually everywhere else on the planet.
As far as I know no legal instrument has been passed to mandate masks in shops therefore the police can try and fine and we should all say charge me with an offence or go fornicate officer
Actually Regulations were passed by the government under the Regulations (Control of Diseases) Act 1984 this week giving the police full legal authority to impose a £100 fine for not wearing a mask in a shop
Then they will row back on it as there is too much resistance, shops wont enforce it either because those that do will lose custom. Another shit law from a shit government that will be largely ignored. Never pass a law you cant enforce
Wouldn't encouraging masking in ALL enclosed situations AND outdoors when closer than six feet, actually help the economy?
Certainly would personally feels better about going out & about & popping into stores & shops IF masking compliance was higher. And it is going up here in Seattle, but still a ways to go.
Knowing the English mentality, no it wouldn't. A lot of people might stubbornly stay at home as a way of protesting against the facemask rule. It's probably different in other countries, and in Scotland and Wales. Also, "hell is other people" is a surprisingly popular maxim in England in my experience, unlike virtually everywhere else on the planet.
As far as I know no legal instrument has been passed to mandate masks in shops therefore the police can try and fine and we should all say charge me with an offence or go fornicate officer
Actually Regulations were passed by the government under the Regulations (Control of Diseases) Act 1984 this week giving the police full legal authority to impose a £100 fine for not wearing a mask in a shop
Then they will row back on it as there is too much resistance, shops wont enforce it either because those that do will lose custom. Another shit law from a shit government that will be largely ignored. Never pass a law you cant enforce
Besides anything it says reduced to 50 if you pay within 14 days so will just use one of my other passports to identify myself so free and clear
Wouldn't encouraging masking in ALL enclosed situations AND outdoors when closer than six feet, actually help the economy?
Certainly would personally feels better about going out & about & popping into stores & shops IF masking compliance was higher. And it is going up here in Seattle, but still a ways to go.
Knowing the English mentality, no it wouldn't. A lot of people might stubbornly stay at home as a way of protesting against the facemask rule. It's probably different in other countries, and in Scotland and Wales. Also, "hell is other people" is a surprisingly popular maxim in England in my experience, unlike virtually everywhere else on the planet.
As far as I know no legal instrument has been passed to mandate masks in shops therefore the police can try and fine and we should all say charge me with an offence or go fornicate officer
Actually Regulations were passed by the government under the Regulations (Control of Diseases) Act 1984 this week giving the police full legal authority to impose a £100 fine for not wearing a mask in a shop
Then they will row back on it as there is too much resistance, shops wont enforce it either because those that do will lose custom. Another shit law from a shit government that will be largely ignored. Never pass a law you cant enforce
Wouldn't encouraging masking in ALL enclosed situations AND outdoors when closer than six feet, actually help the economy?
Certainly would personally feels better about going out & about & popping into stores & shops IF masking compliance was higher. And it is going up here in Seattle, but still a ways to go.
Knowing the English mentality, no it wouldn't. A lot of people might stubbornly stay at home as a way of protesting against the facemask rule. It's probably different in other countries, and in Scotland and Wales. Also, "hell is other people" is a surprisingly popular maxim in England in my experience, unlike virtually everywhere else on the planet.
As far as I know no legal instrument has been passed to mandate masks in shops therefore the police can try and fine and we should all say charge me with an offence or go fornicate officer
Actually Regulations were passed by the government under the Regulations (Control of Diseases) Act 1984 this week giving the police full legal authority to impose a £100 fine for not wearing a mask in a shop
Then they will row back on it as there is too much resistance, shops wont enforce it either because those that do will lose custom. Another shit law from a shit government that will be largely ignored. Never pass a law you cant enforce
Wouldn't encouraging masking in ALL enclosed situations AND outdoors when closer than six feet, actually help the economy?
Certainly would personally feels better about going out & about & popping into stores & shops IF masking compliance was higher. And it is going up here in Seattle, but still a ways to go.
Knowing the English mentality, no it wouldn't. A lot of people might stubbornly stay at home as a way of protesting against the facemask rule. It's probably different in other countries, and in Scotland and Wales. Also, "hell is other people" is a surprisingly popular maxim in England in my experience, unlike virtually everywhere else on the planet.
As far as I know no legal instrument has been passed to mandate masks in shops therefore the police can try and fine and we should all say charge me with an offence or go fornicate officer
Actually Regulations were passed by the government under the Regulations (Control of Diseases) Act 1984 this week giving the police full legal authority to impose a £100 fine for not wearing a mask in a shop
Then they will row back on it as there is too much resistance, shops wont enforce it either because those that do will lose custom. Another shit law from a shit government that will be largely ignored. Never pass a law you cant enforce
Did i say they didn't? I must have missed that I dont care whether they support it or not
at least 90% of the british public are demonstrably morons as they voted ld/labour/tory
Fine but laws with public support are easiest for the police to enforce and they will be, those who disobey will have little public sympathy if they are fined
Wouldn't encouraging masking in ALL enclosed situations AND outdoors when closer than six feet, actually help the economy?
Certainly would personally feels better about going out & about & popping into stores & shops IF masking compliance was higher. And it is going up here in Seattle, but still a ways to go.
Knowing the English mentality, no it wouldn't. A lot of people might stubbornly stay at home as a way of protesting against the facemask rule. It's probably different in other countries, and in Scotland and Wales. Also, "hell is other people" is a surprisingly popular maxim in England in my experience, unlike virtually everywhere else on the planet.
As far as I know no legal instrument has been passed to mandate masks in shops therefore the police can try and fine and we should all say charge me with an offence or go fornicate officer
Actually Regulations were passed by the government under the Regulations (Control of Diseases) Act 1984 this week giving the police full legal authority to impose a £100 fine for not wearing a mask in a shop
Then they will row back on it as there is too much resistance, shops wont enforce it either because those that do will lose custom. Another shit law from a shit government that will be largely ignored. Never pass a law you cant enforce
Did i say they didn't? I must have missed that I dont care whether they support it or not
at least 90% of the british public are demonstrably morons as they voted ld/labour/tory
Fine but laws with public support are easiest for the police to enforce and they will be, those who disobey will have little public sympathy if they are fined
Who are they going to fine I show them a passport they then spend ages looking for them
"BBC journalists are becoming addicted to 'toxic' Twitter, bosses say as corporation launches review into social media use amid fears it is undermining impartiality rules"
"BBC journalists are becoming addicted to 'toxic' Twitter, bosses say as corporation launches review into social media use amid fears it is undermining impartiality rules"
whats the difference they have been addicted to the toxic rag known as the guardian for years....moving to twitter is merely a logical move for the woke who find the gaurdian a little right wing these days especially that toynbee woman
Maine - AP has called it for Gideon, she's leading in every county that's reported votes, now has 70% statewide with 15% pcts reporting
Alabama - AP has called it for Tuberville, now has 65% with 61% of pcts reporting; Sessions ahead in only two counties, his home base and Madison (Huntville) which has more rocket scientists than most AL counties.
Alabama - Tuberville continues to lead, but now down to 62% mostly because Mobile Co finally reported (half pcts) and is going for Session 54%.
Seems that Sessions focused his runoff campaigning in south Alabama; but he's losing all the counties this section EXCEPT for Wilcox, his home county AND for the biggest in South AL, Mobile (as in "Damn the torpedoes - full speed ahead!")
"Face masks could become the “new normal” and remain compulsory in shops until 2021, government sources have indicated.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock confirmed they will be mandatory from July 24 but police have warned imposing the order would be difficult. Those flouting the law in England face a £100 fine. Government insiders have now hinted that Brits could be expected to wear face coverings in shops until coronavirus vaccine is found."
Maine - AP has called it for Gideon, she's leading in every county that's reported votes, now has 70% statewide with 15% pcts reporting
Alabama - AP has called it for Tuberville, now has 65% with 61% of pcts reporting; Sessions ahead in only two counties, his home base and Madison (Huntville) which has more rocket scientists than most AL counties.
Democrats dodge another bullet: Gideon is as moderate as Collins used to be.
I know Stockholm and Goteborg (#1 & #3 Swedish cities well). Density is far lower than London
Stockholm - 4 638/km2 London - 5 327/km2
Not vastly lower at all.
That's pretty misleading. Stockholm doesn't have large parks, instead it has lots of water that's not included in the size figures. And London is also a bit of a donut, with some outer London boroughs having very low population density that drags the number down.
I doubt there is any part of Stockholm that is as crowded - on a day to day basis - as Camden, Brent, or any of the other inner London Boroughs.
Maine - AP has called it for Gideon, she's leading in every county that's reported votes, now has 70% statewide with 15% pcts reporting
Alabama - AP has called it for Tuberville, now has 65% with 61% of pcts reporting; Sessions ahead in only two counties, his home base and Madison (Huntville) which has more rocket scientists than most AL counties.
Democrats dodge another bullet: Gideon is as moderate as Collins used to be.
Dems didn't dodge, they went for the best choice to beat Collins. Very similar logic to national Dem preference for Biden over Sanders - the goal is NOT revolution (except in race relations) but instead throw the bums out. And if Trumpsky is a bigger bum, at best is a near-total waste of space.
I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent
it will have the opposite effect though. Wouldn't mind so much if it was effective in getting rid of covid -19 but it isn't
They've looked at the predix of 100,000+ dead in the next wave and freaked out. Masks might stop that.
However, the price will be a tragically fucked economy
Was this 100K+ based on the "model" that was used in early spring to predict 250K dead by the summer?
Given nearly 50k died with a lockdown, 250k dying without it certainly seems plausible to me.
And yet Sweden hasn't had 40K deaths.
What's Sweden's population density?
Irrelevant. It's urbanisation level that counts.
I know Stockholm and Goteborg (#1 & #3 Swedish cities well). Density is far lower than London
You obviously don’t know them that well. Gothenburg is #2 Swedish city.
I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent
it will have the opposite effect though. Wouldn't mind so much if it was effective in getting rid of covid -19 but it isn't
They've looked at the predix of 100,000+ dead in the next wave and freaked out. Masks might stop that.
However, the price will be a tragically fucked economy
Was this 100K+ based on the "model" that was used in early spring to predict 250K dead by the summer?
Given nearly 50k died with a lockdown, 250k dying without it certainly seems plausible to me.
And yet Sweden hasn't had 40K deaths.
What's Sweden's population density?
Irrelevant. It's urbanisation level that counts.
I know Stockholm and Goteborg (#1 & #3 Swedish cities well). Density is far lower than London
You obviously don’t know them that well. Gothenburg is #2 Swedish city.
USA Dem Veep pick -- a big move on Betfair for Val Demings, in six points to 10 overnight. No new news to explain it, so far as I can see from Google. Others have moved out in response.
I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent
it will have the opposite effect though. Wouldn't mind so much if it was effective in getting rid of covid -19 but it isn't
They've looked at the predix of 100,000+ dead in the next wave and freaked out. Masks might stop that.
However, the price will be a tragically fucked economy
Was this 100K+ based on the "model" that was used in early spring to predict 250K dead by the summer?
Given nearly 50k died with a lockdown, 250k dying without it certainly seems plausible to me.
And yet Sweden hasn't had 40K deaths.
What's Sweden's population density?
Irrelevant. It's urbanisation level that counts.
I know Stockholm and Goteborg (#1 & #3 Swedish cities well). Density is far lower than London
You obviously don’t know them that well. Gothenburg is #2 Swedish city.
Thought #2 was Minneapolis
It is commonly claimed that London is the fourth Swedish city after Stockholm, Gothenburg and Malmö (I’ve no idea of the veracity, but sounds plausible), but I have never seen a claim for any U.S. contenders. Minneapolis would almost certainly have been top ten a hundred years ago, but unlikely to be top thousand nowadays. On the other hand, New York and Los Angeles seem to be stuffed with Swedes (perhaps amplified by popular tv shows featuring those ex-pat communities).
Incidentally, I saw your claim about naked sunbathing in Sweden, which was apparently commonplace in the 1970s, but I can assure you only takes place these days in very clearly defined ‘nakenbad’ areas, which are pretty common, at least on the west coast. Social mores have changed somewhat in Sweden since the 1970s.
One thing that remains unchanged is the fantastic Nordic climate: summers are *much* better here than in the Atlantic archipelago to the west. Drier and hotter and with a culture of lots of swimming in the countless lakes and coastal areas. Simply no comparison with dire, dingy summers on overcrowded English beaches or getting bitten to death by midges and clegs in the Scottish highlands. Why Sweden doesn’t have a huge tourism industry is a bit of a mystery to me. The only logical explanation is that they don’t want one! They certainly put in minimal effort.
Honestly nobody will come to the office to wear a mask . If you want to kill off city centres as well as High Streets then this policy will do it
We’ve been swithering about buying a little pied à terre in the English capital for years. The time may be getting ripe. I dare say we are not the only ones waiting for a collapse in London’s daft property prices.
Only problem is that my better half has suddenly, unexpectedly decided that Edinburgh may not have been such a bad idea after all. Sometimes my suggestions gain currency, after a decade or so of gestation.
Comments
A worrying surge in hospitalisations. Close to the first wave peak now
https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1283159370784620544?s=20
If the trend continues, 100,000 Americans will be hospitalised with Covid in about 3 weeks
So far this week we've had the USA and some Tory backbenchers, led by the indomitable IDS, doing all they can to damage relations with China - some on here have joined in with cold war rhetoric. We've also got more detail on Brexit bureaucracy, which looks a nightmare, and something we won't be ready for in 5 months. Our trading relationships are not looking good at all, though they may improve if the lunatic is removed from the White House. Then we've got the devastating impact of Covid on both health and the economy.
Anybody sensible may think that Covid is enough to be going on with, without declaring a cold, trade war with China, and arrangements that will make trade with Europe much more expensive and difficult.
And yet we're obsessing with face coverings (which incidentally it seems sensible to wear inside when practical).
Bu hey ho, let's just worry about face masks and, of course, the culture war, and what school Starmer went to.
Only thing I remember from what he told me, was that both father & son appreciated the sites of Stockholm - most esp high summer nude sunbathing by very attractive Swedish women festooning the city's many islands.
Don't think I agree with Sweden's Covid strategy - but sunlight IS a superb disinfectant!
On the other hand stopping 5G for a few years should solve the Coronavirus problem...
Muller was an old guard candidate, he was Jim Bolger's Exec Assistant and spoke up for rural communities and farmers who are the backbone of National support.
He just couldn't cut it as Party leader and was a disaster. He was more socially conservative than Bridges or John Key and was a "back to the roots" candidate but Ardern and the media tore him to pieces and he basically quit before the caucus turned on him.
(Fingers crossed...) Moderna day their vaccine will be next year rather than this.
Pfizer will have 100million doses of their candidate vaccine produced before the end of the year - and should have trial results by then, too (they’re starting bulk production before any proof of efficacy).
They have the capacity for over a billion doses next year.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2020_New_Zealand_general_election
She was 18, sweet and innocent when I met her
Pfizer are taking the financial risk themselves.
For all the criticisms of the pharmaceutical industry, we’d be in a far worse place without them.
Edit: I see @Nigelb spotted the open goal first.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vP0HHX4Ur9g
Weirdest thing about this was Muller's response when questioned:
The Herald contacted Muller to ask about issues with accessing the safe. He said: “I’m not visible to details like that.”
Told the chain of events and asked if they were familiar, he said: “That wouldn’t particularly surprise me that it’s not familiar to me.” Muller then said he needed to go to take another call.
https://thestandard.org.nz/todd-muller-and-the-strange-tale-of-the-leaders-safe/
.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GuigptwlVHo&t=360s
And equally no doubt if we get enough vaccine doses for our country this year far from saying that was a job well done we will end up with left wingers saying global equitable distribution should be the priority!
And it is not going to be temporary.
I would say discovered rather than invented though...
Edit: if you somehow could hold in you head the whole number then your head would collapse as a black hole: that is not hyperbole either!
Like the average PBer's bar tab?
The Australian Labor Party uses the US spelling despite the fact it’s much the rarer spelling in Australian English (both spellings are available as I understand it).
https://twitter.com/MackayIM/status/1283152949040918528
London is burning down
People outside London don't grasp the scale of what is happening. A world city is cratering from the inside out. I presume the same is happening in NYC, Paris, and maybe elsewhere
But I know I’ll see your face again
"Judith Collins emerged on Tuesday night from a two-hour-long National caucus meeting as the party's new leader, promising to give the Government competition at the election.
"The Papakura MP, who first entered Parliament in 2002 and has long held leadership ambitions, was given the nod of approval from her colleagues after the shock resignation of Todd Muller on Tuesday morning.
"In her first speech as leader, Collins, surrounded by her caucus, said she felt privileged to become leader.
"She said New Zealand was faced with difficult economic times coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic and that it was crucial for Kiwis to have a "good policy platform and a choice as to who is going to lead them through what is actually starting to look like one of the worst economic times in living memory".
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/07/judith-collin-emerges-as-leader-full-press-conference-after-national-vote.html
Certainly would personally feels better about going out & about & popping into stores & shops IF masking compliance was higher. And it is going up here in Seattle, but still a ways to go.
Polls also closing 8 pm Eastern in Alabama & Maine
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-53400376
London - 5 327/km2
Not vastly lower at all.
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-07-14/impossible-to-enforce-new-face-mask-rules-in-shops-says-met-police-federation-chair
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1282713273817866242?s=20
at least 90% of the british public are demonstrably morons as they voted ld/labour/tory
BUT former Auburn U coach is losing in Tuscaloosa - home of University of Alabama. NOT what you'd call news.
Hey people today a man didn't bite a dog...its not news but I thought it was worth a post
BUT state house Speaker Sara Gideon is leading strongly and looks to be the winner.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8523805/BBC-journalists-addicted-toxic-Twitter-bosses-say.html
Alabama - AP has called it for Tuberville, now has 65% with 61% of pcts reporting; Sessions ahead in only two counties, his home base and Madison (Huntville) which has more rocket scientists than most AL counties.
Seems that Sessions focused his runoff campaigning in south Alabama; but he's losing all the counties this section EXCEPT for Wilcox, his home county AND for the biggest in South AL, Mobile (as in "Damn the torpedoes - full speed ahead!")
Health Secretary Matt Hancock confirmed they will be mandatory from July 24 but police have warned imposing the order would be difficult. Those flouting the law in England face a £100 fine. Government insiders have now hinted that Brits could be expected to wear face coverings in shops until coronavirus vaccine is found."
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/face-masks-could-be-compulsory-in-shops-until-2021-unless-coronavirus-vaccine-found-a4498411.html
Will the vaccine be compulsory as well?
I doubt there is any part of Stockholm that is as crowded - on a day to day basis - as Camden, Brent, or any of the other inner London Boroughs.
Think his biggest problem may have been, American's tend NOT to vote for re-treds, that is politicos who leave an office and then try to win it back.
Been there, done is our attitude. Plus little shits like Beauregard are a dime a dozen.
Incidentally, I saw your claim about naked sunbathing in Sweden, which was apparently commonplace in the 1970s, but I can assure you only takes place these days in very clearly defined ‘nakenbad’ areas, which are pretty common, at least on the west coast. Social mores have changed somewhat in Sweden since the 1970s.
One thing that remains unchanged is the fantastic Nordic climate: summers are *much* better here than in the Atlantic archipelago to the west. Drier and hotter and with a culture of lots of swimming in the countless lakes and coastal areas. Simply no comparison with dire, dingy summers on overcrowded English beaches or getting bitten to death by midges and clegs in the Scottish highlands. Why Sweden doesn’t have a huge tourism industry is a bit of a mystery to me. The only logical explanation is that they don’t want one! They certainly put in minimal effort.
Only problem is that my better half has suddenly, unexpectedly decided that Edinburgh may not have been such a bad idea after all. Sometimes my suggestions gain currency, after a decade or so of gestation.