Breaking news - Ruth Bader Ginsberg has been hospitalised for an as yet unknown infection. Could have huge implications for the election of she kicks the bucket.
Breaking news - Ruth Bader Ginsberg has been hospitalised for an as yet unknown infection. Could have huge implications for the election of she kicks the bucket.
Will the Republicans be able to fill the (theoretical) vacant position before the election?
Breaking news - Ruth Bader Ginsberg has been hospitalised for an as yet unknown infection. Could have huge implications for the election of she kicks the bucket.
Will the Republicans be able to fill the (theoretical) vacant position before the election?
Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?
Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.
A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020
If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more
Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War
That was during May though. It wasn't expected to bounce back then, was it?
Economists expected a 5.5% lift in GDP, we got 1.8%
I fear my pessimism is justified; everyone should pray I am wrong
It was always going to be horrendous. Clearly some horrendous outcomes are worse than others, but I'm not sure the difference between them will be all that apparent.
That's like saying all wars are bad, so there's no point in distinguishing between them.
The Falklands War was bad. The First World War was a total apocalypse.
A 5% fall in UK GDP is a really grisly recession, but we'd get through. A 20% fall in GDP in one year (with more pain to come?) is unprecedented. No one alive has ever experienced such a catastrophe. Who knows what it might do to us, how it could change us
Trying to be positive, a 20% GDP reduction would take us back to GDP levels we had in 2003. Life was ok for most in 2003.
Not so terrible, looked at that way
Andy Haldane gave a speech on this recently, early signs are V shaped recovery.
Now I don't doubt Boris and Rishi can cock it up, but the key numbers to watch are still COVID cases.
We WILL have another lockdown if this gets out of control again. That's the danger.
Except the newest data does NOT suggest a V-shaped recovery.
It's going to be L. You read it here first
Much to early to say. May was a lockdown month indistinguishable from April. It’s hardly surprising that output didn’t change. It will be September when we get the August figures that we will have a clear idea.
Too early to say for sure, but the initial data, and anecdata, are not good.
It is clear that large sectors of the economy - travel/leisure/entertainment/transport - are taking the most enormous hit. Much worse than anticipated.
I have just watched yet another entirely empty London bus pass my window. Fifth in a row.
No one is moving in London. According to reports, the Treasury has been horrified at the scale of the seize-up.
Feels L-shaped to me.
Well until very recently we have had all sorts of random rules stopping businesses from trading. In Scotland we still have them although there is some relaxation tomorrow. And we have combined the reopening with lots of rules about masks that scare people. It’s not helpful.
I am really really trying hard to find positives. Reasons to be cheerful. But I just can't see ANY. It's the bleakest prospect for the country, if not the world, that I have known in my lifetime.
And if anything I expect this crisis to surprise on the downside, even now.
I guess it might be good for the badgers, or something.
There are always opportunities after disasters. That’s what’s keeping me going.
This is well said.
Everyone is getting hung up about the fact this is a bad disaster, but not thinking about what comes next. After the Spanish Flu disaster came the roaring twenties. A decade after WWII was "you've never had it so good".
Yes there will be a recession this year. Yes it will be bad. Yes a lot of people are going to lose their jobs, their livelihoods, their businesses and that is awful. But the silver lining is I expect over the next decade post-COVID and post-Brexit to see a period of high economic growth the likes of which we have not seen in decades.
Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?
Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.
A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020
If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more
Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War
That was during May though. It wasn't expected to bounce back then, was it?
Economists expected a 5.5% lift in GDP, we got 1.8%
I fear my pessimism is justified; everyone should pray I am wrong
It was always going to be horrendous. Clearly some horrendous outcomes are worse than others, but I'm not sure the difference between them will be all that apparent.
That's like saying all wars are bad, so there's no point in distinguishing between them.
The Falklands War was bad. The First World War was a total apocalypse.
A 5% fall in UK GDP is a really grisly recession, but we'd get through. A 20% fall in GDP in one year (with more pain to come?) is unprecedented. No one alive has ever experienced such a catastrophe. Who knows what it might do to us, how it could change us
Trying to be positive, a 20% GDP reduction would take us back to GDP levels we had in 2003. Life was ok for most in 2003.
Not so terrible, looked at that way
Andy Haldane gave a speech on this recently, early signs are V shaped recovery.
Now I don't doubt Boris and Rishi can cock it up, but the key numbers to watch are still COVID cases.
We WILL have another lockdown if this gets out of control again. That's the danger.
Except the newest data does NOT suggest a V-shaped recovery.
It's going to be L. You read it here first
Much to early to say. May was a lockdown month indistinguishable from April. It’s hardly surprising that output didn’t change. It will be September when we get the August figures that we will have a clear idea.
Too early to say for sure, but the initial data, and anecdata, are not good.
It is clear that large sectors of the economy - travel/leisure/entertainment/transport - are taking the most enormous hit. Much worse than anticipated.
I have just watched yet another entirely empty London bus pass my window. Fifth in a row.
No one is moving in London. According to reports, the Treasury has been horrified at the scale of the seize-up.
Feels L-shaped to me.
Well until very recently we have had all sorts of random rules stopping businesses from trading. In Scotland we still have them although there is some relaxation tomorrow. And we have combined the reopening with lots of rules about masks that scare people. It’s not helpful.
I am really really trying hard to find positives. Reasons to be cheerful. But I just can't see ANY. It's the bleakest prospect for the country, if not the world, that I have known in my lifetime.
And if anything I expect this crisis to surprise on the downside, even now.
I guess it might be good for the badgers, or something.
There are always opportunities after disasters. That’s what’s keeping me going.
This is well said.
Everyone is getting hung up about the fact this is a bad disaster, but not thinking about what comes next. After the Spanish Flu disaster came the roaring twenties. A decade after WWII was "you've never had it so good".
Yes there will be a recession this year. Yes it will be bad. Yes a lot of people are going to lose their jobs, their livelihoods, their businesses and that is awful. But the silver lining is I expect over the next decade post-COVID and post-Brexit to see a period of high economic growth the likes of which we have not seen in decades.
Breaking news - Ruth Bader Ginsberg has been hospitalised for an as yet unknown infection. Could have huge implications for the election of she kicks the bucket.
Will the Republicans be able to fill the (theoretical) vacant position before the election?
Yes, they have a pretty solid senate majority.
Can't the Democrats filibuster until the election? There's certainly a precedent they could follow.
I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent
Breaking news - Ruth Bader Ginsberg has been hospitalised for an as yet unknown infection. Could have huge implications for the election of she kicks the bucket.
Breaking news - Ruth Bader Ginsberg has been hospitalised for an as yet unknown infection. Could have huge implications for the election of she kicks the bucket.
Will the Republicans be able to fill the (theoretical) vacant position before the election?
Yes, they have a pretty solid senate majority.
Can't the Democrats filibuster until the election? There's certainly a precedent they could follow.
What was the excuse the Republicans used to prevent Obama filling the vacant seat in 2016?
Breaking news - Ruth Bader Ginsberg has been hospitalised for an as yet unknown infection. Could have huge implications for the election of she kicks the bucket.
Will the Republicans be able to fill the (theoretical) vacant position before the election?
Yes, they have a pretty solid senate majority.
Can't the Democrats filibuster until the election? There's certainly a precedent they could follow.
Filibuster for Supreme Court nominations has been removed.
I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent
it will have the opposite effect though. Wouldn't mind so much if it was effective in getting rid of covid -19 but it isn't
Breaking news - Ruth Bader Ginsberg has been hospitalised for an as yet unknown infection. Could have huge implications for the election of she kicks the bucket.
Will the Republicans be able to fill the (theoretical) vacant position before the election?
Yes, they have a pretty solid senate majority.
Can't the Democrats filibuster until the election? There's certainly a precedent they could follow.
I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent
it will have the opposite effect though. Wouldn't mind so much if it was effective in getting rid of covid -19 but it isn't
They've looked at the predix of 100,000+ dead in the next wave and freaked out. Masks might stop that.
However, the price will be a tragically fucked economy
Breaking news - Ruth Bader Ginsberg has been hospitalised for an as yet unknown infection. Could have huge implications for the election of she kicks the bucket.
Will the Republicans be able to fill the (theoretical) vacant position before the election?
Yes, they have a pretty solid senate majority.
Can't the Democrats filibuster until the election? There's certainly a precedent they could follow.
What was the excuse the Republicans used to prevent Obama filling the vacant seat in 2016?
Obama didn't have a senate majority. They refused to confirm by majority vote, not by filibuster.
Breaking news - Ruth Bader Ginsberg has been hospitalised for an as yet unknown infection. Could have huge implications for the election of she kicks the bucket.
Will the Republicans be able to fill the (theoretical) vacant position before the election?
Yes, they have a pretty solid senate majority.
Can't the Democrats filibuster until the election? There's certainly a precedent they could follow.
They didn't with Kavanaugh, but maybe. 🤷♂️
Kavanaugh was November 2017. Filibustering until the next election would have been rather tough then!
Go to work don't go to work Stay at home don't stay at home. Wear a mask don't wear a mask. Use your good old fashioned British Common Sense and follow the clear and simple guidance
Incidentally as Shagger was days ago insistent that we all go back to the office and preferrably spend £12 a day on a twatty coffee and a crap salad, I have a simple solution to "and wear a mask".
We know that its Not Safe. To be indoors without a mask unless someone wants to make money from you in which case its not only very safe its patriotically safe. Simply enforce everyone going back to the office, and then hold a mandatory away day in a bijou eatery struggling to survive. That way you don't need to wear a mask and will be very safe.
I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent
it will have the opposite effect though. Wouldn't mind so much if it was effective in getting rid of covid -19 but it isn't
They've looked at the predix of 100,000+ dead in the next wave and freaked out. Masks might stop that.
However, the price will be a tragically fucked economy
Was this 100K+ based on the "model" that was used in early spring to predict 250K dead by the summer?
We missed the boat on masks. Compliance is going to remain pathetically low.
I don't know, these things can change quickly.
Today I went to Homebase and was surprised how many people were wearing them. Maybe as many as 10% of the customers were doing so . . . which is unprecedentedly high around here!
I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent
it will have the opposite effect though. Wouldn't mind so much if it was effective in getting rid of covid -19 but it isn't
Only a vaccine will rid us of this deadly virus but as the economy opens and more close contact becomes inevitable, face mask use is likely to become the norm as is evident in China and the far east
Breaking news - Ruth Bader Ginsberg has been hospitalised for an as yet unknown infection. Could have huge implications for the election of she kicks the bucket.
Will the Republicans be able to fill the (theoretical) vacant position before the election?
Yes, they have a pretty solid senate majority.
Can't the Democrats filibuster until the election? There's certainly a precedent they could follow.
What was the excuse the Republicans used to prevent Obama filling the vacant seat in 2016?
Tradition not to fill the post in election year but to leave for next president.
I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent
it will have the opposite effect though. Wouldn't mind so much if it was effective in getting rid of covid -19 but it isn't
They've looked at the predix of 100,000+ dead in the next wave and freaked out. Masks might stop that.
However, the price will be a tragically fucked economy
Was this 100K+ based on the "model" that was used in early spring to predict 250K dead by the summer?
Given nearly 50k died with a lockdown, 250k dying without it certainly seems plausible to me.
Ginsberg has been in hospital many times before, and she's 87 - far younger than the Queen has a few years left in her yet. But were she to theoretically succumb I think the GOP would want to get her replaced ASAP. If Biden got to nominate I think it would be nice if Merrick Garland got the job !
Breaking news - Ruth Bader Ginsberg has been hospitalised for an as yet unknown infection. Could have huge implications for the election of she kicks the bucket.
Will the Republicans be able to fill the (theoretical) vacant position before the election?
Yes, they have a pretty solid senate majority.
Can't the Democrats filibuster until the election? There's certainly a precedent they could follow.
They didn't with Kavanaugh, but maybe. 🤷♂️
I see it's been removed.
Filibustering hasn't been removed for SCOTUS appointments as far as I know. Its been explicitly kept for them.
I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent
it will have the opposite effect though. Wouldn't mind so much if it was effective in getting rid of covid -19 but it isn't
They've looked at the predix of 100,000+ dead in the next wave and freaked out. Masks might stop that.
However, the price will be a tragically fucked economy
Was this 100K+ based on the "model" that was used in early spring to predict 250K dead by the summer?
Given nearly 50k died with a lockdown, 250k dying without it certainly seems plausible to me.
I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent
it will have the opposite effect though. Wouldn't mind so much if it was effective in getting rid of covid -19 but it isn't
They've looked at the predix of 100,000+ dead in the next wave and freaked out. Masks might stop that.
However, the price will be a tragically fucked economy
Was this 100K+ based on the "model" that was used in early spring to predict 250K dead by the summer?
Given nearly 50k died with a lockdown, 250k dying without it certainly seems plausible to me.
I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent
it will have the opposite effect though. Wouldn't mind so much if it was effective in getting rid of covid -19 but it isn't
They've looked at the predix of 100,000+ dead in the next wave and freaked out. Masks might stop that.
However, the price will be a tragically fucked economy
Was this 100K+ based on the "model" that was used in early spring to predict 250K dead by the summer?
We've got 60-70k dead in Wave 1: that began in Feb.
100,000 dead from this September to next June is far from outlandish
I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent
it will have the opposite effect though. Wouldn't mind so much if it was effective in getting rid of covid -19 but it isn't
They've looked at the predix of 100,000+ dead in the next wave and freaked out. Masks might stop that.
However, the price will be a tragically fucked economy
Was this 100K+ based on the "model" that was used in early spring to predict 250K dead by the summer?
As far as I am aware this is a new projection from Sage and is worst case
I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent
it will have the opposite effect though. Wouldn't mind so much if it was effective in getting rid of covid -19 but it isn't
They've looked at the predix of 100,000+ dead in the next wave and freaked out. Masks might stop that.
However, the price will be a tragically fucked economy
Was this 100K+ based on the "model" that was used in early spring to predict 250K dead by the summer?
Given nearly 50k died with a lockdown, 250k dying without it certainly seems plausible to me.
I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent
it will have the opposite effect though. Wouldn't mind so much if it was effective in getting rid of covid -19 but it isn't
They've looked at the predix of 100,000+ dead in the next wave and freaked out. Masks might stop that.
However, the price will be a tragically fucked economy
Was this 100K+ based on the "model" that was used in early spring to predict 250K dead by the summer?
As far as I am aware this is a new projection from Sage and is worst case
It is mid point, I think. Reasonable worst case is 170,000
Here's where we find out only the US buy up 3/4 the world's supply and the EU procurement scheme the remaining quarter.
I think we've already got priority shipments secured for the Moderna vaccine. We'd have had to give them up if we'd joined the EU scheme, which is the main reason we didn't.
Breaking news - Ruth Bader Ginsberg has been hospitalised for an as yet unknown infection. Could have huge implications for the election of she kicks the bucket.
Will the Republicans be able to fill the (theoretical) vacant position before the election?
Yes, they have a pretty solid senate majority.
Can't the Democrats filibuster until the election? There's certainly a precedent they could follow.
What was the excuse the Republicans used to prevent Obama filling the vacant seat in 2016?
Obama didn't have a senate majority. They refused to confirm by majority vote, not by filibuster.
McConnell didn't even start hearings, there was no vote.
We missed the boat on masks. Compliance is going to remain pathetically low.
I don't know, these things can change quickly.
Today I went to Homebase and was surprised how many people were wearing them. Maybe as many as 10% of the customers were doing so . . . which is unprecedentedly high around here!
My wife and I went into town today and much more face mask use was evident, and it does look as if non wearing may well become socially unacceptable
Here's where we find out only the US buy up 3/4 the world's supply and the EU procurement scheme the remaining quarter.
I think we've already got priority shipments secured for the Moderna vaccine. We'd have had to give them up if we'd joined the EU scheme, which is the main reason we didn't.
We missed the boat on masks. Compliance is going to remain pathetically low.
I don't know, these things can change quickly.
Today I went to Homebase and was surprised how many people were wearing them. Maybe as many as 10% of the customers were doing so . . . which is unprecedentedly high around here!
My wife and I went into town today and much more face mask use was evident, and it does look as if non wearing may well become socially unacceptable
And they are not mandated here in Wales as of now
Anecdotally, same here: noticeably more mask usage since the announcement they will be required from 24th in shops.
We missed the boat on masks. Compliance is going to remain pathetically low.
Not sure I agree. Three weeks ago I went to Waitrose with a mask that I didn’t wear as no one else was. Today I wore it and most were wearing them (more than 80%) brits are for the most happy to do what they are told
Evens. Two candidates (Oxford, Moderna) are set to deliver this year, one of them should work.
There is a big difference between a viable vaccine being hastily approved, and it then being widely distributed in billions of doses that work
Next year is possible
We have secured first place in line for the Oxford vaccine and second place for Moderna. If shipments begin in September then we have a fairly good chance of getting a significant number of doses before the year is out.
We missed the boat on masks. Compliance is going to remain pathetically low.
I don't know, these things can change quickly.
Today I went to Homebase and was surprised how many people were wearing them. Maybe as many as 10% of the customers were doing so . . . which is unprecedentedly high around here!
My wife and I went into town today and much more face mask use was evident, and it does look as if non wearing may well become socially unacceptable
And they are not mandated here in Wales as of now
New York went from who-needs-a-mask to wear-a-mask-you-selfish-bastard in about a fortnight, apparently. People are now accosted, or even beaten, for NOT wearing a mask. In a city that prides itself on individual liberty
Work in your office mask up. Work from Spoons or Costa, no need for a mask.
There you are. Simply ban WFH (or an emergency tax on it) plus masks have to be worn in the office. But look, the local coffee shack would live to welcome you for sufficient cash. Its not safe to sit in your own office whereonly your team go. It is safe to sit in Spoons though. And unless you go voluntarily they will use carrot and stick to force you.
Evens. Two candidates (Oxford, Moderna) are set to deliver this year, one of them should work.
There is a big difference between a viable vaccine being hastily approved, and it then being widely distributed in billions of doses that work
Next year is possible
We have secured first place in line for the Oxford vaccine and second place for Moderna. If shipments begin in September then we have a fairly good chance of getting a significant number of doses before the year is out.
i truly hope you are right. But that's a lot of IFs
I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent
it will have the opposite effect though. Wouldn't mind so much if it was effective in getting rid of covid -19 but it isn't
They've looked at the predix of 100,000+ dead in the next wave and freaked out. Masks might stop that.
However, the price will be a tragically fucked economy
Was this 100K+ based on the "model" that was used in early spring to predict 250K dead by the summer?
Given nearly 50k died with a lockdown, 250k dying without it certainly seems plausible to me.
And yet Sweden hasn't had 40K deaths.
What's Sweden's population density?
Irrelevant. It's urbanisation level that counts.
Sweden has a similar urbanisation to the UK but a much much higher level of single occupancy housing.
I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent
it will have the opposite effect though. Wouldn't mind so much if it was effective in getting rid of covid -19 but it isn't
They've looked at the predix of 100,000+ dead in the next wave and freaked out. Masks might stop that.
However, the price will be a tragically fucked economy
Was this 100K+ based on the "model" that was used in early spring to predict 250K dead by the summer?
As far as I am aware this is a new projection from Sage and is worst case
It is mid point, I think. Reasonable worst case is 170,000
The figure I read in the report this morning was 120,000 between this winter and next June as a worst case scenario
I genuinely think today's economic figures have spooked the government. I reckon initial indications of them were behind the rather strange, sudden Johnson exhortation to go back to work, which seemed to come from nowhere. And now masks. Half the country doesn't trust or believe a word they say. The other half love them. But you can't resurrect an economy on half the population. And confidence won't return until a coherent, thought through strategy emerges that is not obviously motivated by short term advantage. Not holding my breath.
Evens. Two candidates (Oxford, Moderna) are set to deliver this year, one of them should work.
There is a big difference between a viable vaccine being hastily approved, and it then being widely distributed in billions of doses that work
Next year is possible
We have secured first place in line for the Oxford vaccine and second place for Moderna. If shipments begin in September then we have a fairly good chance of getting a significant number of doses before the year is out.
i truly hope you are right. But that's a lot of IFs
Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?
Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.
A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020
If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more
Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War
That was during May though. It wasn't expected to bounce back then, was it?
Economists expected a 5.5% lift in GDP, we got 1.8%
I fear my pessimism is justified; everyone should pray I am wrong
It was always going to be horrendous. Clearly some horrendous outcomes are worse than others, but I'm not sure the difference between them will be all that apparent.
That's like saying all wars are bad, so there's no point in distinguishing between them.
The Falklands War was bad. The First World War was a total apocalypse.
A 5% fall in UK GDP is a really grisly recession, but we'd get through. A 20% fall in GDP in one year (with more pain to come?) is unprecedented. No one alive has ever experienced such a catastrophe. Who knows what it might do to us, how it could change us
Trying to be positive, a 20% GDP reduction would take us back to GDP levels we had in 2003. Life was ok for most in 2003.
Not so terrible, looked at that way
Andy Haldane gave a speech on this recently, early signs are V shaped recovery.
Now I don't doubt Boris and Rishi can cock it up, but the key numbers to watch are still COVID cases.
We WILL have another lockdown if this gets out of control again. That's the danger.
Except the newest data does NOT suggest a V-shaped recovery.
It's going to be L. You read it here first
Much to early to say. May was a lockdown month indistinguishable from April. It’s hardly surprising that output didn’t change. It will be September when we get the August figures that we will have a clear idea.
Too early to say for sure, but the initial data, and anecdata, are not good.
It is clear that large sectors of the economy - travel/leisure/entertainment/transport - are taking the most enormous hit. Much worse than anticipated.
I have just watched yet another entirely empty London bus pass my window. Fifth in a row.
No one is moving in London. According to reports, the Treasury has been horrified at the scale of the seize-up.
Feels L-shaped to me.
Well until very recently we have had all sorts of random rules stopping businesses from trading. In Scotland we still have them although there is some relaxation tomorrow. And we have combined the reopening with lots of rules about masks that scare people. It’s not helpful.
I am really really trying hard to find positives. Reasons to be cheerful. But I just can't see ANY. It's the bleakest prospect for the country, if not the world, that I have known in my lifetime.
And if anything I expect this crisis to surprise on the downside, even now.
I guess it might be good for the badgers, or something.
There are always opportunities after disasters. That’s what’s keeping me going.
This is well said.
Everyone is getting hung up about the fact this is a bad disaster, but not thinking about what comes next. After the Spanish Flu disaster came the roaring twenties. A decade after WWII was "you've never had it so good".
Yes there will be a recession this year. Yes it will be bad. Yes a lot of people are going to lose their jobs, their livelihoods, their businesses and that is awful. But the silver lining is I expect over the next decade post-COVID and post-Brexit to see a period of high economic growth the likes of which we have not seen in decades.
Please show your workings
I love it when you talk physics teacher. And obviously, I don't know, but the post WW2 boom was partly about repurposing military advances for civilian ends. So what tech has come out of the last four months that we want to keep?
The obvious one is that everyone can videoconference from home now. We might not want to do it all day every day, but it'll improve productivity as we learn how to use it long-term.
I'd hope that we remember to be better about hygiene, because frankly we've been decadent for ages. Less winter bugs, less peaky pressure on the health service.
If property prices in London fall, that's probably good for the productive bits of the economy, if bad for whoever actually owns the West End. And whilst I'll miss aspects of London as was, parts of it were held up by people putting up with poorish pay and highish living costs with the profits siphoned off by property owners. That's needed fixing for a while, even if this is a pretty brutal way of doing it.
But mainly, I wanted to say that Rosebay Willowherb almost feels like a good name for an alter ego, if one were in the market for such a thing. She's seen a lot. Not in her prime, but still has it.
Evens. Two candidates (Oxford, Moderna) are set to deliver this year, one of them should work.
There is a big difference between a viable vaccine being hastily approved, and it then being widely distributed in billions of doses that work
Next year is possible
We have secured first place in line for the Oxford vaccine and second place for Moderna. If shipments begin in September then we have a fairly good chance of getting a significant number of doses before the year is out.
i truly hope you are right. But that's a lot of IFs
Er... that's one if.
It's two tbf, if it works and if it starts delivering in September, the same is true for the Oxford one.
We missed the boat on masks. Compliance is going to remain pathetically low.
I don't know, these things can change quickly.
Today I went to Homebase and was surprised how many people were wearing them. Maybe as many as 10% of the customers were doing so . . . which is unprecedentedly high around here!
My wife and I went into town today and much more face mask use was evident, and it does look as if non wearing may well become socially unacceptable
And they are not mandated here in Wales as of now
Anecdotally, same here: noticeably more mask usage since the announcement they will be required from 24th in shops.
Indeed even media reports are indicating wider use
It will become the norm quicker than most expect and without police prosecutions
Evens. Two candidates (Oxford, Moderna) are set to deliver this year, one of them should work.
There is a big difference between a viable vaccine being hastily approved, and it then being widely distributed in billions of doses that work
Next year is possible
We have secured first place in line for the Oxford vaccine and second place for Moderna. If shipments begin in September then we have a fairly good chance of getting a significant number of doses before the year is out.
i truly hope you are right. But that's a lot of IFs
Er... that's one if.
The IFs are implicit, clearly.
The biggest one of all, but unspoken, is IF we get a working vaccine
I am skeptical we will have one by "September". It would be the fastest vaccine approval in history by a massive margin
Not sure if this has been picked up elsewhere but an extraordinary day in New Zealand politics with Todd Muller stepping down as leader of the opposition National Party after just 53 days as leader.
Fair to say his tenure made IDS's spell as Tory leader look like a triumph:
The new leader is Judith Collins who had stood against Simon Bridges when he won the National leadership in 2018 and is, to follow the analogy, more of the "Michael Howard" character.
New Zealand votes in September and current polls (pre Muller's departure) give Jacinda Ardern's Labor Party a huge lead.
Honestly nobody will come to the office to wear a mask . If you want to kill off city centres as well as High Streets then this policy will do it
Masks have been compulsory in NHS administration offices since June 15. It hasn't been a problem.
It's just something to get used to (consider women who always wear nijabs in public). In my office it's the commuting on public transport that puts people off, not the mask issue.
Speaking of masks, just got back from King County Elections headquarters, were EVERYONE who enters the building is required to wear a mask AT ALL TIMES except when getting a quick drink of water or eating lunch in (socially distanced) break room.
Went down for mandatory election observer training; need to attend a session every 2 years in order to observe on behalf of either King Co Democrats or King Co Republicans. At this 2-hour training, there were five places allocated for each food group: 5 Dems signed up & showed up; 2 Reps signed up but only 1 showed. BTW, for session scheduled for Thursday, 5 Ds signed up, 0 Rs.
After orientation & questions, our group toured KCE ballot processing setup, which takes up one floor of a big 2-story building outside of Seattle. Not many working there right now, but then only 1k or so ballots for Aug 4 primary have been returned by "submarine" voters: active-duty military stationed overseas, or in the case of Trident sub crews, underseas.
Bulk of active registered voters - over 1.3 million currently in King Co - will receive their ballots via mail later this week. Returned ballots are accepted for counting IF returned or postmarked by Aug 4 AND voter signature is verified by comparison with voter sig on file at election office.
KCE is working hard to protect permanent and many temporary staff needed to process, tabulate and account for returned ballots. At the height of activity just before & after Primary Day - and Election Day this fall - place is like Santa's Workshop with lots of different things happening, but all designed for one purpose - to accurately count the votes and canvass the returns.
First thing yours truly had to do when I arrived at KCE was have my temperature checked - I failed the test! Because I had walked the last mile & a half there, and arrived overheated. Since I was way early, I sat down, read a book, and re-took the test after I'd cooled down - passed with flying colors.
BTW, only people on buses I took to & from KCE who were NOT wearing masks were two fucking idiots - which I pointed out to them & the driver as nicely as needed.
We missed the boat on masks. Compliance is going to remain pathetically low.
I don't know, these things can change quickly.
Today I went to Homebase and was surprised how many people were wearing them. Maybe as many as 10% of the customers were doing so . . . which is unprecedentedly high around here!
I just went to a London shopping centre late tonight. I passed 4 people. They were all wearing masks
I had a very vivid dream around January that I was on the run from the authorities. My crime? Treachery for not consuming enough. How long before we get there?
We missed the boat on masks. Compliance is going to remain pathetically low.
I don't know, these things can change quickly.
Today I went to Homebase and was surprised how many people were wearing them. Maybe as many as 10% of the customers were doing so . . . which is unprecedentedly high around here!
I just went to a London shopping centre late tonight. I passed 4 people. They were all wearing masks
I started wearing a mask in shops yesterday in order to get used to it. I always can’t wait to get back to the car to take it off though. I would hate to wear it for 8 hours in an office...
Evens. Two candidates (Oxford, Moderna) are set to deliver this year, one of them should work.
There is a big difference between a viable vaccine being hastily approved, and it then being widely distributed in billions of doses that work
Next year is possible
We have secured first place in line for the Oxford vaccine and second place for Moderna. If shipments begin in September then we have a fairly good chance of getting a significant number of doses before the year is out.
i truly hope you are right. But that's a lot of IFs
Er... that's one if.
The IFs are implicit, clearly.
The biggest one of all, but unspoken, is IF we get a working vaccine
I am skeptical we will have one by "September". It would be the fastest vaccine approval in history by a massive margin
I agree that "If shipments begin in September..." is a big IF.
I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent
it will have the opposite effect though. Wouldn't mind so much if it was effective in getting rid of covid -19 but it isn't
They've looked at the predix of 100,000+ dead in the next wave and freaked out. Masks might stop that.
However, the price will be a tragically fucked economy
Was this 100K+ based on the "model" that was used in early spring to predict 250K dead by the summer?
Given nearly 50k died with a lockdown, 250k dying without it certainly seems plausible to me.
And yet Sweden hasn't had 40K deaths.
What's Sweden's population density?
Irrelevant. It's urbanisation level that counts.
I know Stockholm and Goteborg (#1 & #3 Swedish cities well). Density is far lower than London
I had a very vivid dream around January that I was on the run from the authorities. My crime? Treachery for not consuming enough. How long before we get there?
You'll NEVER be able to hang that rap on me, copper!
If these Corbynite nutters want to leave Labour then go right ahead. The less morons the better. We can get back to winning elections and they can stick with their student politics
Evens. Two candidates (Oxford, Moderna) are set to deliver this year, one of them should work.
There is a big difference between a viable vaccine being hastily approved, and it then being widely distributed in billions of doses that work
Next year is possible
We have secured first place in line for the Oxford vaccine and second place for Moderna. If shipments begin in September then we have a fairly good chance of getting a significant number of doses before the year is out.
Comments
Rosebay willowherb. Remember the name. Rosebay willowherb.
It is a beautiful wild flower that sprouted, unexpectedly, in bomb sites, after the Blitz
Rosebay willowherb
https://www.wildlifetrusts.org/wildlife-explorer/wildflowers/rosebay-willowherb
https://twitter.com/nicolesganga/status/1283136594346680322?s=21
Everyone is getting hung up about the fact this is a bad disaster, but not thinking about what comes next. After the Spanish Flu disaster came the roaring twenties. A decade after WWII was "you've never had it so good".
Yes there will be a recession this year. Yes it will be bad. Yes a lot of people are going to lose their jobs, their livelihoods, their businesses and that is awful. But the silver lining is I expect over the next decade post-COVID and post-Brexit to see a period of high economic growth the likes of which we have not seen in decades.
https://twitter.com/rolebuild/status/1283146267250524163?s=20
I see it's been removed.
However, the price will be a tragically fucked economy
Stay at home don't stay at home.
Wear a mask don't wear a mask.
Use your good old fashioned British Common Sense and follow the clear and simple guidance
Incidentally as Shagger was days ago insistent that we all go back to the office and preferrably spend £12 a day on a twatty coffee and a crap salad, I have a simple solution to "and wear a mask".
We know that its Not Safe. To be indoors without a mask unless someone wants to make money from you in which case its not only very safe its patriotically safe. Simply enforce everyone going back to the office, and then hold a mandatory away day in a bijou eatery struggling to survive. That way you don't need to wear a mask and will be very safe.
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1283152869676515328?s=20
Today I went to Homebase and was surprised how many people were wearing them. Maybe as many as 10% of the customers were doing so . . . which is unprecedentedly high around here!
But were she to theoretically succumb I think the GOP would want to get her replaced ASAP. If Biden got to nominate I think it would be nice if Merrick Garland got the job !
100,000 dead from this September to next June is far from outlandish
And they are not mandated here in Wales as of now
Next year is possible
These things can change quick
Half the country doesn't trust or believe a word they say. The other half love them.
But you can't resurrect an economy on half the population.
And confidence won't return until a coherent, thought through strategy emerges that is not obviously motivated by short term advantage.
Not holding my breath.
The obvious one is that everyone can videoconference from home now. We might not want to do it all day every day, but it'll improve productivity as we learn how to use it long-term.
I'd hope that we remember to be better about hygiene, because frankly we've been decadent for ages. Less winter bugs, less peaky pressure on the health service.
If property prices in London fall, that's probably good for the productive bits of the economy, if bad for whoever actually owns the West End. And whilst I'll miss aspects of London as was, parts of it were held up by people putting up with poorish pay and highish living costs with the profits siphoned off by property owners. That's needed fixing for a while, even if this is a pretty brutal way of doing it.
But mainly, I wanted to say that Rosebay Willowherb almost feels like a good name for an alter ego, if one were in the market for such a thing. She's seen a lot. Not in her prime, but still has it.
Believe it when I see it but lol
So it's definitely going to be WTO terms with maximum tariffs.
It will become the norm quicker than most expect and without police prosecutions
The biggest one of all, but unspoken, is IF we get a working vaccine
I am skeptical we will have one by "September". It would be the fastest vaccine approval in history by a massive margin
Fair to say his tenure made IDS's spell as Tory leader look like a triumph:
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/07/the-mishaps-that-led-national-party-leader-todd-muller-to-quit-after-just-53-days.html
The new leader is Judith Collins who had stood against Simon Bridges when he won the National leadership in 2018 and is, to follow the analogy, more of the "Michael Howard" character.
New Zealand votes in September and current polls (pre Muller's departure) give Jacinda Ardern's Labor Party a huge lead.
Went down for mandatory election observer training; need to attend a session every 2 years in order to observe on behalf of either King Co Democrats or King Co Republicans. At this 2-hour training, there were five places allocated for each food group: 5 Dems signed up & showed up; 2 Reps signed up but only 1 showed. BTW, for session scheduled for Thursday, 5 Ds signed up, 0 Rs.
After orientation & questions, our group toured KCE ballot processing setup, which takes up one floor of a big 2-story building outside of Seattle. Not many working there right now, but then only 1k or so ballots for Aug 4 primary have been returned by "submarine" voters: active-duty military stationed overseas, or in the case of Trident sub crews, underseas.
Bulk of active registered voters - over 1.3 million currently in King Co - will receive their ballots via mail later this week. Returned ballots are accepted for counting IF returned or postmarked by Aug 4 AND voter signature is verified by comparison with voter sig on file at election office.
KCE is working hard to protect permanent and many temporary staff needed to process, tabulate and account for returned ballots. At the height of activity just before & after Primary Day - and Election Day this fall - place is like Santa's Workshop with lots of different things happening, but all designed for one purpose - to accurately count the votes and canvass the returns.
First thing yours truly had to do when I arrived at KCE was have my temperature checked - I failed the test! Because I had walked the last mile & a half there, and arrived overheated. Since I was way early, I sat down, read a book, and re-took the test after I'd cooled down - passed with flying colors.
BTW, only people on buses I took to & from KCE who were NOT wearing masks were two fucking idiots - which I pointed out to them & the driver as nicely as needed.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/face-masks-and-coverings-to-be-worn-by-all-nhs-hospital-staff-and-visitors
How long before we get there?
Polls in all three states close today, July 14 at 8pm Eastern Daylight Time, in just under two hours.