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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Well this is turning into quite the volte-facemasks from Boris

SystemSystem Posts: 12,169
edited July 2020 in General
imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Well this is turning into quite the volte-facemasks from Boris Johnson

TELEGRAPH: Next stop, masks in offices #TomorrowsPapersToday pic.twitter.com/bPNId86Blr

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Comments

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036
    Bang
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,816
    Honestly nobody will come to the office to wear a mask . If you want to kill off city centres as well as High Streets then this policy will do it
  • The Government is completely and utterly out of direction and ideas. It is now throw at the wall and see what sticks
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    fpt for Gallowgate


    Rosebay willowherb. Remember the name. Rosebay willowherb.

    It is a beautiful wild flower that sprouted, unexpectedly, in bomb sites, after the Blitz

    Rosebay willowherb

    https://www.wildlifetrusts.org/wildlife-explorer/wildflowers/rosebay-willowherb
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Breaking news - Ruth Bader Ginsberg has been hospitalised for an as yet unknown infection. Could have huge implications for the election of she kicks the bucket.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    Trump is a shrieking baboon but in this he is right. China lied, millions died
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    MaxPB said:

    Breaking news - Ruth Bader Ginsberg has been hospitalised for an as yet unknown infection. Could have huge implications for the election of she kicks the bucket.

    Will the Republicans be able to fill the (theoretical) vacant position before the election?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    MaxPB said:

    Breaking news - Ruth Bader Ginsberg has been hospitalised for an as yet unknown infection. Could have huge implications for the election of she kicks the bucket.

    Will the Republicans be able to fill the (theoretical) vacant position before the election?
    Yes, they have a pretty solid senate majority.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    FPT but relevant

    LadyG said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    rkrkrk said:

    LadyG said:

    kle4 said:

    LadyG said:

    RobD said:

    LadyG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?

    Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.
    A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020

    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp

    Indeed, it could be worse than that. GDP has fallen by almost a quarter. The expected bounceback has been smaller than hoped.

    https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918253891858432?s=20


    If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more

    Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War
    That was during May though. It wasn't expected to bounce back then, was it?
    Economists expected a 5.5% lift in GDP, we got 1.8%

    I fear my pessimism is justified; everyone should pray I am wrong

    https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1282919918334291969?s=20

    It was always going to be horrendous. Clearly some horrendous outcomes are worse than others, but I'm not sure the difference between them will be all that apparent.
    That's like saying all wars are bad, so there's no point in distinguishing between them.

    The Falklands War was bad. The First World War was a total apocalypse.

    A 5% fall in UK GDP is a really grisly recession, but we'd get through. A 20% fall in GDP in one year (with more pain to come?) is unprecedented. No one alive has ever experienced such a catastrophe. Who
    knows what it might do to us, how it could change us

    Trying to be positive, a 20% GDP reduction would take us back to GDP levels we had in 2003. Life was ok for most in 2003.

    Not so terrible, looked at that way :smile:
    Andy Haldane gave a speech on this recently, early signs are V shaped recovery.

    Now I don't doubt Boris and Rishi can cock it up, but the key numbers to watch are still COVID cases.

    We WILL have another lockdown if this gets out of control again. That's the danger.
    Except the newest data does NOT suggest a V-shaped recovery.

    It's going to be L. You read it here first
    Much to early to say. May was a lockdown month indistinguishable from April. It’s hardly surprising that output didn’t change. It will be September when we get the August figures that we will have a clear idea.
    Too early to say for sure, but the initial data, and anecdata, are not good.

    It is clear that large sectors of the economy - travel/leisure/entertainment/transport - are taking the most enormous hit. Much worse than anticipated.


    I have just watched yet another entirely empty London bus pass my window. Fifth in a row.

    No one is moving in London. According to reports, the Treasury has been horrified at the scale of the seize-up.

    Feels L-shaped to me.
    Well until very recently we have had all sorts of random rules stopping businesses from trading. In Scotland we still have them although there is some relaxation tomorrow. And we have combined the reopening with lots of rules about masks that scare people. It’s not helpful.

    I am really really trying hard to find positives. Reasons to be cheerful. But I just can't see ANY. It's the bleakest prospect for the country, if not the world, that I have known in my lifetime.

    And if anything I expect this crisis to surprise on the downside, even now.

    I guess it might be good for the badgers, or something.

    There are always opportunities after disasters. That’s what’s keeping me going.
    This is well said.

    Everyone is getting hung up about the fact this is a bad disaster, but not thinking about what comes next. After the Spanish Flu disaster came the roaring twenties. A decade after WWII was "you've never had it so good".

    Yes there will be a recession this year. Yes it will be bad. Yes a lot of people are going to lose their jobs, their livelihoods, their businesses and that is awful. But the silver lining is I expect over the next decade post-COVID and post-Brexit to see a period of high economic growth the likes of which we have not seen in decades.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    FPT but relevant

    LadyG said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    rkrkrk said:

    LadyG said:

    kle4 said:

    LadyG said:

    RobD said:

    LadyG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?

    Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.
    A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020

    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp

    Indeed, it could be worse than that. GDP has fallen by almost a quarter. The expected bounceback has been smaller than hoped.

    https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918253891858432?s=20


    If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more

    Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War
    That was during May though. It wasn't expected to bounce back then, was it?
    Economists expected a 5.5% lift in GDP, we got 1.8%

    I fear my pessimism is justified; everyone should pray I am wrong

    https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1282919918334291969?s=20

    It was always going to be horrendous. Clearly some horrendous outcomes are worse than others, but I'm not sure the difference between them will be all that apparent.
    That's like saying all wars are bad, so there's no point in distinguishing between them.

    The Falklands War was bad. The First World War was a total apocalypse.

    A 5% fall in UK GDP is a really grisly recession, but we'd get through. A 20% fall in GDP in one year (with more pain to come?) is unprecedented. No one alive has ever experienced such a catastrophe. Who
    knows what it might do to us, how it could change us

    Trying to be positive, a 20% GDP reduction would take us back to GDP levels we had in 2003. Life was ok for most in 2003.

    Not so terrible, looked at that way :smile:
    Andy Haldane gave a speech on this recently, early signs are V shaped recovery.

    Now I don't doubt Boris and Rishi can cock it up, but the key numbers to watch are still COVID cases.

    We WILL have another lockdown if this gets out of control again. That's the danger.
    Except the newest data does NOT suggest a V-shaped recovery.

    It's going to be L. You read it here first
    Much to early to say. May was a lockdown month indistinguishable from April. It’s hardly surprising that output didn’t change. It will be September when we get the August figures that we will have a clear idea.
    Too early to say for sure, but the initial data, and anecdata, are not good.

    It is clear that large sectors of the economy - travel/leisure/entertainment/transport - are taking the most enormous hit. Much worse than anticipated.


    I have just watched yet another entirely empty London bus pass my window. Fifth in a row.

    No one is moving in London. According to reports, the Treasury has been horrified at the scale of the seize-up.

    Feels L-shaped to me.
    Well until very recently we have had all sorts of random rules stopping businesses from trading. In Scotland we still have them although there is some relaxation tomorrow. And we have combined the reopening with lots of rules about masks that scare people. It’s not helpful.

    I am really really trying hard to find positives. Reasons to be cheerful. But I just can't see ANY. It's the bleakest prospect for the country, if not the world, that I have known in my lifetime.

    And if anything I expect this crisis to surprise on the downside, even now.

    I guess it might be good for the badgers, or something.

    There are always opportunities after disasters. That’s what’s keeping me going.
    This is well said.

    Everyone is getting hung up about the fact this is a bad disaster, but not thinking about what comes next. After the Spanish Flu disaster came the roaring twenties. A decade after WWII was "you've never had it so good".

    Yes there will be a recession this year. Yes it will be bad. Yes a lot of people are going to lose their jobs, their livelihoods, their businesses and that is awful. But the silver lining is I expect over the next decade post-COVID and post-Brexit to see a period of high economic growth the likes of which we have not seen in decades.
    Please show your workings
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Breaking news - Ruth Bader Ginsberg has been hospitalised for an as yet unknown infection. Could have huge implications for the election of she kicks the bucket.

    Will the Republicans be able to fill the (theoretical) vacant position before the election?
    Yes, they have a pretty solid senate majority.
    Can't the Democrats filibuster until the election? There's certainly a precedent they could follow.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    Brazil already reporting 1,200 dead today. Could be a record for them
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    MaxPB said:

    Breaking news - Ruth Bader Ginsberg has been hospitalised for an as yet unknown infection. Could have huge implications for the election of she kicks the bucket.

    Well fuck.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Breaking news - Ruth Bader Ginsberg has been hospitalised for an as yet unknown infection. Could have huge implications for the election of she kicks the bucket.

    Will the Republicans be able to fill the (theoretical) vacant position before the election?
    Yes, they have a pretty solid senate majority.
    Can't the Democrats filibuster until the election? There's certainly a precedent they could follow.
    What was the excuse the Republicans used to prevent Obama filling the vacant seat in 2016?
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    I am old enough to remember when Kerala was the communist poster-child of covid-containment

    https://twitter.com/rolebuild/status/1283146267250524163?s=20
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Breaking news - Ruth Bader Ginsberg has been hospitalised for an as yet unknown infection. Could have huge implications for the election of she kicks the bucket.

    Will the Republicans be able to fill the (theoretical) vacant position before the election?
    Yes, they have a pretty solid senate majority.
    Can't the Democrats filibuster until the election? There's certainly a precedent they could follow.
    Filibuster for Supreme Court nominations has been removed.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,816

    I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent

    it will have the opposite effect though. Wouldn't mind so much if it was effective in getting rid of covid -19 but it isn't
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    edited July 2020

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Breaking news - Ruth Bader Ginsberg has been hospitalised for an as yet unknown infection. Could have huge implications for the election of she kicks the bucket.

    Will the Republicans be able to fill the (theoretical) vacant position before the election?
    Yes, they have a pretty solid senate majority.
    Can't the Democrats filibuster until the election? There's certainly a precedent they could follow.
    They didn't with Kavanaugh, but maybe. 🤷‍♂️

    I see it's been removed.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent

    it will have the opposite effect though. Wouldn't mind so much if it was effective in getting rid of covid -19 but it isn't
    They've looked at the predix of 100,000+ dead in the next wave and freaked out. Masks might stop that.

    However, the price will be a tragically fucked economy
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Breaking news - Ruth Bader Ginsberg has been hospitalised for an as yet unknown infection. Could have huge implications for the election of she kicks the bucket.

    Will the Republicans be able to fill the (theoretical) vacant position before the election?
    Yes, they have a pretty solid senate majority.
    Can't the Democrats filibuster until the election? There's certainly a precedent they could follow.
    What was the excuse the Republicans used to prevent Obama filling the vacant seat in 2016?
    Obama didn't have a senate majority. They refused to confirm by majority vote, not by filibuster.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Breaking news - Ruth Bader Ginsberg has been hospitalised for an as yet unknown infection. Could have huge implications for the election of she kicks the bucket.

    Will the Republicans be able to fill the (theoretical) vacant position before the election?
    Yes, they have a pretty solid senate majority.
    Can't the Democrats filibuster until the election? There's certainly a precedent they could follow.
    They didn't with Kavanaugh, but maybe. 🤷‍♂️
    Kavanaugh was November 2017. Filibustering until the next election would have been rather tough then!
  • We missed the boat on masks. Compliance is going to remain pathetically low.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,902
    Go to work don't go to work
    Stay at home don't stay at home.
    Wear a mask don't wear a mask.
    Use your good old fashioned British Common Sense and follow the clear and simple guidance

    Incidentally as Shagger was days ago insistent that we all go back to the office and preferrably spend £12 a day on a twatty coffee and a crap salad, I have a simple solution to "and wear a mask".

    We know that its Not Safe. To be indoors without a mask unless someone wants to make money from you in which case its not only very safe its patriotically safe. Simply enforce everyone going back to the office, and then hold a mandatory away day in a bijou eatery struggling to survive. That way you don't need to wear a mask and will be very safe.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    LadyG said:

    I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent

    it will have the opposite effect though. Wouldn't mind so much if it was effective in getting rid of covid -19 but it isn't
    They've looked at the predix of 100,000+ dead in the next wave and freaked out. Masks might stop that.

    However, the price will be a tragically fucked economy
    Was this 100K+ based on the "model" that was used in early spring to predict 250K dead by the summer?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    We missed the boat on masks. Compliance is going to remain pathetically low.

    I don't know, these things can change quickly.

    Today I went to Homebase and was surprised how many people were wearing them. Maybe as many as 10% of the customers were doing so . . . which is unprecedentedly high around here!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102

    I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent

    it will have the opposite effect though. Wouldn't mind so much if it was effective in getting rid of covid -19 but it isn't
    Only a vaccine will rid us of this deadly virus but as the economy opens and more close contact becomes inevitable, face mask use is likely to become the norm as is evident in China and the far east
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,805

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Breaking news - Ruth Bader Ginsberg has been hospitalised for an as yet unknown infection. Could have huge implications for the election of she kicks the bucket.

    Will the Republicans be able to fill the (theoretical) vacant position before the election?
    Yes, they have a pretty solid senate majority.
    Can't the Democrats filibuster until the election? There's certainly a precedent they could follow.
    What was the excuse the Republicans used to prevent Obama filling the vacant seat in 2016?
    Tradition not to fill the post in election year but to leave for next president.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    LadyG said:

    I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent

    it will have the opposite effect though. Wouldn't mind so much if it was effective in getting rid of covid -19 but it isn't
    They've looked at the predix of 100,000+ dead in the next wave and freaked out. Masks might stop that.

    However, the price will be a tragically fucked economy
    Was this 100K+ based on the "model" that was used in early spring to predict 250K dead by the summer?
    Given nearly 50k died with a lockdown, 250k dying without it certainly seems plausible to me.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,138

    We missed the boat on masks. Compliance is going to remain pathetically low.

    Not if non compliance leads to a £100 fine which the government has confirmed it will
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    LadyG said:
    Wonder what that means for the HKD dollar fix. Could send the HK economy into a massive tailspin if it doesn't hold.
  • Odds on vaccine this year?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102

    We missed the boat on masks. Compliance is going to remain pathetically low.

    Nonsense
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    Ginsberg has been in hospital many times before, and she's 87 - far younger than the Queen has a few years left in her yet.
    But were she to theoretically succumb I think the GOP would want to get her replaced ASAP. If Biden got to nominate I think it would be nice if Merrick Garland got the job !
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Breaking news - Ruth Bader Ginsberg has been hospitalised for an as yet unknown infection. Could have huge implications for the election of she kicks the bucket.

    Will the Republicans be able to fill the (theoretical) vacant position before the election?
    Yes, they have a pretty solid senate majority.
    Can't the Democrats filibuster until the election? There's certainly a precedent they could follow.
    They didn't with Kavanaugh, but maybe. 🤷‍♂️

    I see it's been removed.
    Filibustering hasn't been removed for SCOTUS appointments as far as I know. Its been explicitly kept for them.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    LadyG said:

    I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent

    it will have the opposite effect though. Wouldn't mind so much if it was effective in getting rid of covid -19 but it isn't
    They've looked at the predix of 100,000+ dead in the next wave and freaked out. Masks might stop that.

    However, the price will be a tragically fucked economy
    Was this 100K+ based on the "model" that was used in early spring to predict 250K dead by the summer?
    Given nearly 50k died with a lockdown, 250k dying without it certainly seems plausible to me.
    And yet Sweden hasn't had 40K deaths.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    LadyG said:

    I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent

    it will have the opposite effect though. Wouldn't mind so much if it was effective in getting rid of covid -19 but it isn't
    They've looked at the predix of 100,000+ dead in the next wave and freaked out. Masks might stop that.

    However, the price will be a tragically fucked economy
    Was this 100K+ based on the "model" that was used in early spring to predict 250K dead by the summer?
    Given nearly 50k died with a lockdown, 250k dying without it certainly seems plausible to me.
    And yet Sweden hasn't had 40K deaths.
    What's Sweden's population density?
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    LadyG said:

    I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent

    it will have the opposite effect though. Wouldn't mind so much if it was effective in getting rid of covid -19 but it isn't
    They've looked at the predix of 100,000+ dead in the next wave and freaked out. Masks might stop that.

    However, the price will be a tragically fucked economy
    Was this 100K+ based on the "model" that was used in early spring to predict 250K dead by the summer?
    We've got 60-70k dead in Wave 1: that began in Feb.

    100,000 dead from this September to next June is far from outlandish
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102

    LadyG said:

    I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent

    it will have the opposite effect though. Wouldn't mind so much if it was effective in getting rid of covid -19 but it isn't
    They've looked at the predix of 100,000+ dead in the next wave and freaked out. Masks might stop that.

    However, the price will be a tragically fucked economy
    Was this 100K+ based on the "model" that was used in early spring to predict 250K dead by the summer?
    As far as I am aware this is a new projection from Sage and is worst case
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    HYUFD said:
    Here's where we find out only the US buy up 3/4 the world's supply and the EU procurement scheme the remaining quarter.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036
    Work in your office mask up. Work from Spoons or Costa, no need for a mask.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    Odds on vaccine this year?

    Evens. Two candidates (Oxford, Moderna) are set to deliver this year, one of them should work.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    LadyG said:

    I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent

    it will have the opposite effect though. Wouldn't mind so much if it was effective in getting rid of covid -19 but it isn't
    They've looked at the predix of 100,000+ dead in the next wave and freaked out. Masks might stop that.

    However, the price will be a tragically fucked economy
    Was this 100K+ based on the "model" that was used in early spring to predict 250K dead by the summer?
    Given nearly 50k died with a lockdown, 250k dying without it certainly seems plausible to me.
    And yet Sweden hasn't had 40K deaths.
    What's Sweden's population density?
    Irrelevant. It's urbanisation level that counts.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,595

    The Government is completely and utterly out of direction and ideas. It is now throw at the wall and see what sticks

    Having Gove and Johnson saying opposite things about facemasks within a couple of days of each other didn't look good.
  • We missed the boat on masks. Compliance is going to remain pathetically low.

    Nonsense
    Oh it must be the case, the mighty Big G has proclaimed it thus! Don't you ever tire of posting crap?
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    LadyG said:

    I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent

    it will have the opposite effect though. Wouldn't mind so much if it was effective in getting rid of covid -19 but it isn't
    They've looked at the predix of 100,000+ dead in the next wave and freaked out. Masks might stop that.

    However, the price will be a tragically fucked economy
    Was this 100K+ based on the "model" that was used in early spring to predict 250K dead by the summer?
    As far as I am aware this is a new projection from Sage and is worst case
    It is mid point, I think. Reasonable worst case is 170,000
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    The Government is completely and utterly out of direction and ideas. It is now throw at the wall and see what sticks

    What an opportunity for SKS. Any idea why he is not taking advantage of it?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    MaxPB said:

    Odds on vaccine this year?

    Evens. Two candidates (Oxford, Moderna) are set to deliver this year, one of them should work.
    That's surely better than evens then?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:
    Here's where we find out only the US buy up 3/4 the world's supply and the EU procurement scheme the remaining quarter.
    I think we've already got priority shipments secured for the Moderna vaccine. We'd have had to give them up if we'd joined the EU scheme, which is the main reason we didn't.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Breaking news - Ruth Bader Ginsberg has been hospitalised for an as yet unknown infection. Could have huge implications for the election of she kicks the bucket.

    Will the Republicans be able to fill the (theoretical) vacant position before the election?
    Yes, they have a pretty solid senate majority.
    Can't the Democrats filibuster until the election? There's certainly a precedent they could follow.
    What was the excuse the Republicans used to prevent Obama filling the vacant seat in 2016?
    Obama didn't have a senate majority. They refused to confirm by majority vote, not by filibuster.
    McConnell didn't even start hearings, there was no vote.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102

    We missed the boat on masks. Compliance is going to remain pathetically low.

    I don't know, these things can change quickly.

    Today I went to Homebase and was surprised how many people were wearing them. Maybe as many as 10% of the customers were doing so . . . which is unprecedentedly high around here!
    My wife and I went into town today and much more face mask use was evident, and it does look as if non wearing may well become socially unacceptable

    And they are not mandated here in Wales as of now
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    MaxPB said:

    Odds on vaccine this year?

    Evens. Two candidates (Oxford, Moderna) are set to deliver this year, one of them should work.
    There is a big difference between a viable vaccine being hastily approved, and it then being widely distributed in billions of doses that work

    Next year is possible
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036
    The front page of the Telegraph makes it look like the sight of The Truss has given Gove a semi.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:
    Here's where we find out only the US buy up 3/4 the world's supply and the EU procurement scheme the remaining quarter.
    I think we've already got priority shipments secured for the Moderna vaccine. We'd have had to give them up if we'd joined the EU scheme, which is the main reason we didn't.
    ok - sounds good.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    We missed the boat on masks. Compliance is going to remain pathetically low.

    I don't know, these things can change quickly.

    Today I went to Homebase and was surprised how many people were wearing them. Maybe as many as 10% of the customers were doing so . . . which is unprecedentedly high around here!
    My wife and I went into town today and much more face mask use was evident, and it does look as if non wearing may well become socially unacceptable

    And they are not mandated here in Wales as of now
    Anecdotally, same here: noticeably more mask usage since the announcement they will be required from 24th in shops.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,466

    We missed the boat on masks. Compliance is going to remain pathetically low.

    Not sure I agree. Three weeks ago I went to Waitrose with a mask that I didn’t wear as no one else was. Today I wore it and most were wearing them (more than 80%) brits are for the most happy to do what they are told
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    LadyG said:

    MaxPB said:

    Odds on vaccine this year?

    Evens. Two candidates (Oxford, Moderna) are set to deliver this year, one of them should work.
    There is a big difference between a viable vaccine being hastily approved, and it then being widely distributed in billions of doses that work

    Next year is possible
    We have secured first place in line for the Oxford vaccine and second place for Moderna. If shipments begin in September then we have a fairly good chance of getting a significant number of doses before the year is out.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    We missed the boat on masks. Compliance is going to remain pathetically low.

    I don't know, these things can change quickly.

    Today I went to Homebase and was surprised how many people were wearing them. Maybe as many as 10% of the customers were doing so . . . which is unprecedentedly high around here!
    My wife and I went into town today and much more face mask use was evident, and it does look as if non wearing may well become socially unacceptable

    And they are not mandated here in Wales as of now
    New York went from who-needs-a-mask to wear-a-mask-you-selfish-bastard in about a fortnight, apparently. People are now accosted, or even beaten, for NOT wearing a mask. In a city that prides itself on individual liberty

    These things can change quick
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    The front page of the Telegraph makes it look like the sight of The Truss has given Gove a semi.

    Lol - I wish you hadn't pointed that out!
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,902

    Work in your office mask up. Work from Spoons or Costa, no need for a mask.

    There you are. Simply ban WFH (or an emergency tax on it) plus masks have to be worn in the office. But look, the local coffee shack would live to welcome you for sufficient cash. Its not safe to sit in your own office whereonly your team go. It is safe to sit in Spoons though. And unless you go voluntarily they will use carrot and stick to force you.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102

    We missed the boat on masks. Compliance is going to remain pathetically low.

    Nonsense
    Oh it must be the case, the mighty Big G has proclaimed it thus! Don't you ever tire of posting crap?
    May I just gently say you are quite an expert on that subject
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,719

    Honestly nobody will come to the office to wear a mask . If you want to kill off city centres as well as High Streets then this policy will do it

    Masks have been compulsory in NHS administration offices since June 15. It hasn't been a problem.
  • Well my company is ignoring the Government advice and not sending anyone back to work anytime soon
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    MaxPB said:

    LadyG said:

    MaxPB said:

    Odds on vaccine this year?

    Evens. Two candidates (Oxford, Moderna) are set to deliver this year, one of them should work.
    There is a big difference between a viable vaccine being hastily approved, and it then being widely distributed in billions of doses that work

    Next year is possible
    We have secured first place in line for the Oxford vaccine and second place for Moderna. If shipments begin in September then we have a fairly good chance of getting a significant number of doses before the year is out.
    i truly hope you are right. But that's a lot of IFs
  • We missed the boat on masks. Compliance is going to remain pathetically low.

    Nonsense
    Oh it must be the case, the mighty Big G has proclaimed it thus! Don't you ever tire of posting crap?
    May I just gently say you are quite an expert on that subject
    I learn from the best
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    LadyG said:

    I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent

    it will have the opposite effect though. Wouldn't mind so much if it was effective in getting rid of covid -19 but it isn't
    They've looked at the predix of 100,000+ dead in the next wave and freaked out. Masks might stop that.

    However, the price will be a tragically fucked economy
    Was this 100K+ based on the "model" that was used in early spring to predict 250K dead by the summer?
    Given nearly 50k died with a lockdown, 250k dying without it certainly seems plausible to me.
    And yet Sweden hasn't had 40K deaths.
    What's Sweden's population density?
    Irrelevant. It's urbanisation level that counts.
    Sweden has a similar urbanisation to the UK but a much much higher level of single occupancy housing.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent

    it will have the opposite effect though. Wouldn't mind so much if it was effective in getting rid of covid -19 but it isn't
    They've looked at the predix of 100,000+ dead in the next wave and freaked out. Masks might stop that.

    However, the price will be a tragically fucked economy
    Was this 100K+ based on the "model" that was used in early spring to predict 250K dead by the summer?
    As far as I am aware this is a new projection from Sage and is worst case
    It is mid point, I think. Reasonable worst case is 170,000
    The figure I read in the report this morning was 120,000 between this winter and next June as a worst case scenario
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,413
    I genuinely think today's economic figures have spooked the government. I reckon initial indications of them were behind the rather strange, sudden Johnson exhortation to go back to work, which seemed to come from nowhere. And now masks.
    Half the country doesn't trust or believe a word they say. The other half love them.
    But you can't resurrect an economy on half the population.
    And confidence won't return until a coherent, thought through strategy emerges that is not obviously motivated by short term advantage.
    Not holding my breath.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Malmo still continues to be basically untouched by Corona virus.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    LadyG said:

    MaxPB said:

    LadyG said:

    MaxPB said:

    Odds on vaccine this year?

    Evens. Two candidates (Oxford, Moderna) are set to deliver this year, one of them should work.
    There is a big difference between a viable vaccine being hastily approved, and it then being widely distributed in billions of doses that work

    Next year is possible
    We have secured first place in line for the Oxford vaccine and second place for Moderna. If shipments begin in September then we have a fairly good chance of getting a significant number of doses before the year is out.
    i truly hope you are right. But that's a lot of IFs
    Er... that's one if.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,240
    LadyG said:

    FPT but relevant

    LadyG said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    rkrkrk said:

    LadyG said:

    kle4 said:

    LadyG said:

    RobD said:

    LadyG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Given the lack of light at the end of the covid economic misery tunnel, can anyone explain why the stock markets are trundling along happily at only 10-15% off their peaks?

    Oh that's easy: recession means lower interest rates for longer, which means the rich can continue to play the carry trade game, which means higher equity prices.
    A 10% fall in GDP is technically a "Depression", not a Recession. The UK's GDP is expected to contract by about 10% in 2020

    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp

    Indeed, it could be worse than that. GDP has fallen by almost a quarter. The expected bounceback has been smaller than hoped.

    https://twitter.com/Rob_KS_ONS/status/1282918253891858432?s=20


    If my worst fears of a systemic crash, starting in a seized-up London but rippling out, come to fruition, then we could see a GDP fall nearer 20%. Or more

    Completely unprecedented. Probably the biggest fall since the English Civil War
    That was during May though. It wasn't expected to bounce back then, was it?
    Economists expected a 5.5% lift in GDP, we got 1.8%

    I fear my pessimism is justified; everyone should pray I am wrong

    https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1282919918334291969?s=20

    It was always going to be horrendous. Clearly some horrendous outcomes are worse than others, but I'm not sure the difference between them will be all that apparent.
    That's like saying all wars are bad, so there's no point in distinguishing between them.

    The Falklands War was bad. The First World War was a total apocalypse.

    A 5% fall in UK GDP is a really grisly recession, but we'd get through. A 20% fall in GDP in one year (with more pain to come?) is unprecedented. No one alive has ever experienced such a catastrophe. Who
    knows what it might do to us, how it could change us

    Trying to be positive, a 20% GDP reduction would take us back to GDP levels we had in 2003. Life was ok for most in 2003.

    Not so terrible, looked at that way :smile:
    Andy Haldane gave a speech on this recently, early signs are V shaped recovery.

    Now I don't doubt Boris and Rishi can cock it up, but the key numbers to watch are still COVID cases.

    We WILL have another lockdown if this gets out of control again. That's the danger.
    Except the newest data does NOT suggest a V-shaped recovery.

    It's going to be L. You read it here first
    Much to early to say. May was a lockdown month indistinguishable from April. It’s hardly surprising that output didn’t change. It will be September when we get the August figures that we will have a clear idea.
    Too early to say for sure, but the initial data, and anecdata, are not good.

    It is clear that large sectors of the economy - travel/leisure/entertainment/transport - are taking the most enormous hit. Much worse than anticipated.


    I have just watched yet another entirely empty London bus pass my window. Fifth in a row.

    No one is moving in London. According to reports, the Treasury has been horrified at the scale of the seize-up.

    Feels L-shaped to me.
    Well until very recently we have had all sorts of random rules stopping businesses from trading. In Scotland we still have them although there is some relaxation tomorrow. And we have combined the reopening with lots of rules about masks that scare people. It’s not helpful.

    I am really really trying hard to find positives. Reasons to be cheerful. But I just can't see ANY. It's the bleakest prospect for the country, if not the world, that I have known in my lifetime.

    And if anything I expect this crisis to surprise on the downside, even now.

    I guess it might be good for the badgers, or something.

    There are always opportunities after disasters. That’s what’s keeping me going.
    This is well said.

    Everyone is getting hung up about the fact this is a bad disaster, but not thinking about what comes next. After the Spanish Flu disaster came the roaring twenties. A decade after WWII was "you've never had it so good".

    Yes there will be a recession this year. Yes it will be bad. Yes a lot of people are going to lose their jobs, their livelihoods, their businesses and that is awful. But the silver lining is I expect over the next decade post-COVID and post-Brexit to see a period of high economic growth the likes of which we have not seen in decades.
    Please show your workings
    I love it when you talk physics teacher. And obviously, I don't know, but the post WW2 boom was partly about repurposing military advances for civilian ends. So what tech has come out of the last four months that we want to keep?

    The obvious one is that everyone can videoconference from home now. We might not want to do it all day every day, but it'll improve productivity as we learn how to use it long-term.

    I'd hope that we remember to be better about hygiene, because frankly we've been decadent for ages. Less winter bugs, less peaky pressure on the health service.

    If property prices in London fall, that's probably good for the productive bits of the economy, if bad for whoever actually owns the West End. And whilst I'll miss aspects of London as was, parts of it were held up by people putting up with poorish pay and highish living costs with the profits siphoned off by property owners. That's needed fixing for a while, even if this is a pretty brutal way of doing it.

    But mainly, I wanted to say that Rosebay Willowherb almost feels like a good name for an alter ego, if one were in the market for such a thing. She's seen a lot. Not in her prime, but still has it.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    IshmaelZ said:

    The Government is completely and utterly out of direction and ideas. It is now throw at the wall and see what sticks

    What an opportunity for SKS. Any idea why he is not taking advantage of it?
    Has he been seen in a mask yet ?
  • A few papers commenting on Tory taxes.

    Believe it when I see it but lol
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    The Government is completely and utterly out of direction and ideas. It is now throw at the wall and see what sticks

    What are they seeing that we are not?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Foxy said:

    Honestly nobody will come to the office to wear a mask . If you want to kill off city centres as well as High Streets then this policy will do it

    Masks have been compulsory in NHS administration offices since June 15. It hasn't been a problem.
    Not in NHS Business Services though.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    edited July 2020
    Even Patrick Minfodd believes we will get zero rate tariffs with the EU.
    So it's definitely going to be WTO terms with maximum tariffs.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    LadyG said:

    MaxPB said:

    LadyG said:

    MaxPB said:

    Odds on vaccine this year?

    Evens. Two candidates (Oxford, Moderna) are set to deliver this year, one of them should work.
    There is a big difference between a viable vaccine being hastily approved, and it then being widely distributed in billions of doses that work

    Next year is possible
    We have secured first place in line for the Oxford vaccine and second place for Moderna. If shipments begin in September then we have a fairly good chance of getting a significant number of doses before the year is out.
    i truly hope you are right. But that's a lot of IFs
    Er... that's one if.
    It's two tbf, if it works and if it starts delivering in September, the same is true for the Oxford one.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102

    We missed the boat on masks. Compliance is going to remain pathetically low.

    I don't know, these things can change quickly.

    Today I went to Homebase and was surprised how many people were wearing them. Maybe as many as 10% of the customers were doing so . . . which is unprecedentedly high around here!
    My wife and I went into town today and much more face mask use was evident, and it does look as if non wearing may well become socially unacceptable

    And they are not mandated here in Wales as of now
    Anecdotally, same here: noticeably more mask usage since the announcement they will be required from 24th in shops.
    Indeed even media reports are indicating wider use

    It will become the norm quicker than most expect and without police prosecutions

  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    LadyG said:

    MaxPB said:

    LadyG said:

    MaxPB said:

    Odds on vaccine this year?

    Evens. Two candidates (Oxford, Moderna) are set to deliver this year, one of them should work.
    There is a big difference between a viable vaccine being hastily approved, and it then being widely distributed in billions of doses that work

    Next year is possible
    We have secured first place in line for the Oxford vaccine and second place for Moderna. If shipments begin in September then we have a fairly good chance of getting a significant number of doses before the year is out.
    i truly hope you are right. But that's a lot of IFs
    Er... that's one if.
    The IFs are implicit, clearly.

    The biggest one of all, but unspoken, is IF we get a working vaccine

    I am skeptical we will have one by "September". It would be the fastest vaccine approval in history by a massive margin

  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,898
    Not sure if this has been picked up elsewhere but an extraordinary day in New Zealand politics with Todd Muller stepping down as leader of the opposition National Party after just 53 days as leader.

    Fair to say his tenure made IDS's spell as Tory leader look like a triumph:

    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/07/the-mishaps-that-led-national-party-leader-todd-muller-to-quit-after-just-53-days.html

    The new leader is Judith Collins who had stood against Simon Bridges when he won the National leadership in 2018 and is, to follow the analogy, more of the "Michael Howard" character.

    New Zealand votes in September and current polls (pre Muller's departure) give Jacinda Ardern's Labor Party a huge lead.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,138
    edited July 2020

    A few papers commenting on Tory taxes.

    Believe it when I see it but lol

    All it relates to is a review of capital gains tax, given the VAT cut and stamp holiday announced last week
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    Foxy said:

    Honestly nobody will come to the office to wear a mask . If you want to kill off city centres as well as High Streets then this policy will do it

    Masks have been compulsory in NHS administration offices since June 15. It hasn't been a problem.
    It's just something to get used to (consider women who always wear nijabs in public). In my office it's the commuting on public transport that puts people off, not the mask issue.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Speaking of masks, just got back from King County Elections headquarters, were EVERYONE who enters the building is required to wear a mask AT ALL TIMES except when getting a quick drink of water or eating lunch in (socially distanced) break room.

    Went down for mandatory election observer training; need to attend a session every 2 years in order to observe on behalf of either King Co Democrats or King Co Republicans. At this 2-hour training, there were five places allocated for each food group: 5 Dems signed up & showed up; 2 Reps signed up but only 1 showed. BTW, for session scheduled for Thursday, 5 Ds signed up, 0 Rs.

    After orientation & questions, our group toured KCE ballot processing setup, which takes up one floor of a big 2-story building outside of Seattle. Not many working there right now, but then only 1k or so ballots for Aug 4 primary have been returned by "submarine" voters: active-duty military stationed overseas, or in the case of Trident sub crews, underseas.

    Bulk of active registered voters - over 1.3 million currently in King Co - will receive their ballots via mail later this week. Returned ballots are accepted for counting IF returned or postmarked by Aug 4 AND voter signature is verified by comparison with voter sig on file at election office.

    KCE is working hard to protect permanent and many temporary staff needed to process, tabulate and account for returned ballots. At the height of activity just before & after Primary Day - and Election Day this fall - place is like Santa's Workshop with lots of different things happening, but all designed for one purpose - to accurately count the votes and canvass the returns.

    First thing yours truly had to do when I arrived at KCE was have my temperature checked - I failed the test! Because I had walked the last mile & a half there, and arrived overheated. Since I was way early, I sat down, read a book, and re-took the test after I'd cooled down - passed with flying colors.

    BTW, only people on buses I took to & from KCE who were NOT wearing masks were two fucking idiots - which I pointed out to them & the driver as nicely as needed.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,719

    Foxy said:

    Honestly nobody will come to the office to wear a mask . If you want to kill off city centres as well as High Streets then this policy will do it

    Masks have been compulsory in NHS administration offices since June 15. It hasn't been a problem.
    Not in NHS Business Services though.
    Naughty, naughty! They should be:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/face-masks-and-coverings-to-be-worn-by-all-nhs-hospital-staff-and-visitors
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    The Government is completely and utterly out of direction and ideas. It is now throw at the wall and see what sticks

    What an opportunity for SKS. Any idea why he is not taking advantage of it?
    Has he been seen in a mask yet ?
    Too busy taking the knee. And writing all those letters.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    We missed the boat on masks. Compliance is going to remain pathetically low.

    It's been steadily on the rise for weeks now.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    We missed the boat on masks. Compliance is going to remain pathetically low.

    I don't know, these things can change quickly.

    Today I went to Homebase and was surprised how many people were wearing them. Maybe as many as 10% of the customers were doing so . . . which is unprecedentedly high around here!
    I just went to a London shopping centre late tonight. I passed 4 people. They were all wearing masks
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,413
    I had a very vivid dream around January that I was on the run from the authorities. My crime? Treachery for not consuming enough.
    How long before we get there?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Charles said:

    We missed the boat on masks. Compliance is going to remain pathetically low.

    I don't know, these things can change quickly.

    Today I went to Homebase and was surprised how many people were wearing them. Maybe as many as 10% of the customers were doing so . . . which is unprecedentedly high around here!
    I just went to a London shopping centre late tonight. I passed 4 people. They were all wearing masks
    I started wearing a mask in shops yesterday in order to get used to it. I always can’t wait to get back to the car to take it off though. I would hate to wear it for 8 hours in an office...
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    BASTILLE DAY FESTIVAL OF DEMOCRACY - Alabama, Maine, Texas

    Polls in all three states close today, July 14 at 8pm Eastern Daylight Time, in just under two hours.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    MaxPB said:

    LadyG said:

    MaxPB said:

    Odds on vaccine this year?

    Evens. Two candidates (Oxford, Moderna) are set to deliver this year, one of them should work.
    There is a big difference between a viable vaccine being hastily approved, and it then being widely distributed in billions of doses that work

    Next year is possible
    We have secured first place in line for the Oxford vaccine and second place for Moderna. If shipments begin in September then we have a fairly good chance of getting a significant number of doses before the year is out.
    i truly hope you are right. But that's a lot of IFs
    Er... that's one if.
    The IFs are implicit, clearly.

    The biggest one of all, but unspoken, is IF we get a working vaccine

    I am skeptical we will have one by "September". It would be the fastest vaccine approval in history by a massive margin

    I agree that "If shipments begin in September..." is a big IF.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    LadyG said:

    I would suggest the report of a possible winter covid crisis has given Boris the cover he needs to come out strongly in favour of masks and by mandating their use they will become accepted by most people, giving him the option to open more of the economy as today's GDP figures show is very urgent

    it will have the opposite effect though. Wouldn't mind so much if it was effective in getting rid of covid -19 but it isn't
    They've looked at the predix of 100,000+ dead in the next wave and freaked out. Masks might stop that.

    However, the price will be a tragically fucked economy
    Was this 100K+ based on the "model" that was used in early spring to predict 250K dead by the summer?
    Given nearly 50k died with a lockdown, 250k dying without it certainly seems plausible to me.
    And yet Sweden hasn't had 40K deaths.
    What's Sweden's population density?
    Irrelevant. It's urbanisation level that counts.
    I know Stockholm and Goteborg (#1 & #3 Swedish cities well). Density is far lower than London
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    dixiedean said:

    I had a very vivid dream around January that I was on the run from the authorities. My crime? Treachery for not consuming enough.
    How long before we get there?

    You'll NEVER be able to hang that rap on me, copper!
  • If these Corbynite nutters want to leave Labour then go right ahead. The less morons the better. We can get back to winning elections and they can stick with their student politics
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MaxPB said:

    LadyG said:

    MaxPB said:

    Odds on vaccine this year?

    Evens. Two candidates (Oxford, Moderna) are set to deliver this year, one of them should work.
    There is a big difference between a viable vaccine being hastily approved, and it then being widely distributed in billions of doses that work

    Next year is possible
    We have secured first place in line for the Oxford vaccine and second place for Moderna. If shipments begin in September then we have a fairly good chance of getting a significant number of doses before the year is out.
    Watch this space
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    The front page of the Telegraph makes it look like the sight of The Truss has given Gove a semi.

    Lol - I wish you hadn't pointed that out!
    Better than the other way round
This discussion has been closed.