politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How long before Johnson’s “should” wear masks become a legal r

another_richard said:

Pulpstar said:

another_richard said:

HYUFD said:

another_richard said:

NickPalmer said:

Jeremy Hunt's constituency newsletter (I am an avid reader - it's a good read, with witty asides) predicts that masks in shops eill be compulsory within the next few days.

And does Hunt have views on whether masks should be worn in pubs and restaurants ?

Less than 10% wear them in the supermarkets I've been to.

So that's a lot of people who might get annoyed - not a vote winner.

And if wearing masks are necessary now then the government is admitting it fucked up massively by neither encouraging them four months ago nor ensuring their supply - again not a vote winner.

60% of voters now want masks to be compulsory for shoppers, including 57% of Tory voters

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1282713273817866242?s=20

And less than 10% wear them.

So your poll is bollox.

Hmm I think people don't wear them because others don't. If there's a degree of compulsion that changes the equation.

They might wear them but its not going to be a vote winner.

They'll also want to know why they need to wear them now when the government has told them for four months that they don't.

And they'll want to know why politicians don't bother wearing them while telling others to do so.

RobD said:

Black_Rook said:

RobD said:

another_richard said:

HYUFD said:

another_richard said:

NickPalmer said:

Jeremy Hunt's constituency newsletter (I am an avid reader - it's a good read, with witty asides) predicts that masks in shops eill be compulsory within the next few days.

And does Hunt have views on whether masks should be worn in pubs and restaurants ?

Less than 10% wear them in the supermarkets I've been to.

So that's a lot of people who might get annoyed - not a vote winner.

And if wearing masks are necessary now then the government is admitting it fucked up massively by neither encouraging them four months ago nor ensuring their supply - again not a vote winner.

60% of voters now want masks to be compulsory for shoppers, including 57% of Tory voters

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1282713273817866242?s=20

And less than 10% wear them.

So your poll is bollox.

I thought the fraction was higher than that now, approaching a third or so?

Not if what I saw in Cambridge when I was out shopping on Saturday is anything to go by. Mask use at perhaps 5%, certainly no more than 10%, and quite a lot of those were being worn as completely useless necklaces by people who were yakking on the phone, walking along whilst eating stuff, or probably in some cases just plain straightforward sick of breathing through a rag.

I think these polls showing massive support for the things are just examples of people giving virtue signalling answers. In reality then don't mind masks being theoretically imposed upon other people, but have no intention of using them themselves.

Polling says it's up to a third - https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-53388444

Philip_Thompson said:

FF43 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Pulpstar said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Casino_Royale said:

houndtang said:

I've had enough of this - how people are still buying this bollocks is beyond me. My father spent his last weeks of his life alone because of lockdown - given the choice I'm sure he'd have rather taken the risk and had the company. The story of covid is hysteria and moral panic on a global scale and the government has behaved disgracefully from the get go. Now they want to insist on us wearing masks. They can fuck right off. PS I voted Tory in December, this plus insipid reaction to BLM protests means I never will again.

Masks are twattish bollocks.

I will do by absolute best to wear one as little as possible and break the boundaries of the rules as much as I can.

Placebo crap. Might as well fit a condom onto a cucumber and strap it onto your head.

I don't understand your problem with masks.

The scientific evidence is they work and the more they minimise R the less we need other actions to take the burden.

I'd rather masks than alternative restrictions.

I'm in favour of compulsory masks in shops, but I'm certainly not claiming the libertarian label. Are you still doing so ?

I agree with Gove.

I think masks should be worn and encouraged, but I don't think they should need to be made compulsory to do so. I think wearing a mask in these circumstances should be considered good manners, like saying please and thank you - I believe in good manners and try to follow them but I don't think they should need to be enforced by law.

Furthermore while I think that a compulsory mask law would be illiberal, I think if the choice is between shutting down activity with a second lockdown or having the activity but with masks then the latter is the more liberal option.

Finally I think if shops want to have 'masks must be worn' as their own policy then that is their free choice and is a liberal solution too. Just as if a premise wants to have a 'shirts must be worn' policy.

Is the polite transmission of a deadly disease because you refuse to wear a mask, good manners?

If I cough before this pandemic either put my hands to my mouth or coughed into my elbow if I couldn't do that. Coughing without doing so is very, very bad manners - but its not criminal.

Refusing to wear a mask when you are capable of doing so should be as socially ostracised and socially unacceptable as in normal times pre-COVID walking around coughing without bothering to cover your mouth would be.

But I don't see why the government need get involved.

MaxPB said:

Anabobazina said:

What’s the PB pub-going factor like? Have we all been down the pub - or not? I’ve been twice, albeit to the same pub both times!

Opening day, Saturday just gone and yesterday. Going Thursday evening as well to meet some work colleagues.

another_richard said:

HYUFD said:

another_richard said:

HYUFD said:

another_richard said:

HYUFD said:

another_richard said:

NickPalmer said:

Jeremy Hunt's constituency newsletter (I am an avid reader - it's a good read, with witty asides) predicts that masks in shops eill be compulsory within the next few days.

And does Hunt have views on whether masks should be worn in pubs and restaurants ?

Less than 10% wear them in the supermarkets I've been to.

So that's a lot of people who might get annoyed - not a vote winner.

And if wearing masks are necessary now then the government is admitting it fucked up massively by neither encouraging them four months ago nor ensuring their supply - again not a vote winner.

60% of voters now want masks to be compulsory for shoppers, including 57% of Tory voters

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1282713273817866242?s=20

And less than 10% wear them.

So your poll is bollox.

It isn't because it is not yet the law to make wearing them mandatory as it is on public transport, by the end of the week it likely will be the law and compulsory to wear a facemask while shopping

And High Streets will be even more bolloxed.

Still it means more profits for Amazon.

And good luck getting people to go to pubs and restaurants after they've been told that its not safe.

The reverse, wearing facemasks reduces the spread of Covid making it safer to go shopping, not making facemasks compulsory means it is more sensible to shop via online delivery rather than in store

People will be more afraid and so will go out less.

Whereas there's sod all risk currently going to the shops.

Take a look at where the outbreaks occur - factories, farms, care homes and hospitals. Not shops.

But by your reasoning people will not go to pubs and restaurants because masks aren't worn on those.

Pulpstar said:

another_richard said:

And they'll want to know why politicians don't bother wearing them while telling others to do so.

Every single Tory MP will have a photo with a mask on in a shop on their twitter when they change it.

Anabobazina said:

What’s the PB pub-going factor like? Have we all been down the pub - or not? I’ve been twice, albeit to the same pub both times!

Pulpstar said:

MaxPB said:

another_richard said:

Pulpstar said:

another_richard said:

HYUFD said:

another_richard said:

NickPalmer said:

Jeremy Hunt's constituency newsletter (I am an avid reader - it's a good read, with witty asides) predicts that masks in shops eill be compulsory within the next few days.

And does Hunt have views on whether masks should be worn in pubs and restaurants ?

Less than 10% wear them in the supermarkets I've been to.

So that's a lot of people who might get annoyed - not a vote winner.

And if wearing masks are necessary now then the government is admitting it fucked up massively by neither encouraging them four months ago nor ensuring their supply - again not a vote winner.

60% of voters now want masks to be compulsory for shoppers, including 57% of Tory voters

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1282713273817866242?s=20

And less than 10% wear them.

So your poll is bollox.

Hmm I think people don't wear them because others don't. If there's a degree of compulsion that changes the equation.

They might wear them but its not going to be a vote winner.

They'll also want to know why they need to wear them now when the government has told them for four months that they don't.

And they'll want to know why politicians don't bother wearing them while telling others to do so.

It's not that difficult because the government can say it's part of moving away from 2m social distancing to 1m social distancing and allowing larger groups of people to be in the same place (no more queueing, groups of 20 people meeting outdoors etc...). Honestly, if the government links mask wearing to no longer having to queue up to shop then it will be a very big vote winner.

Masks qualify for the 1 metre rule because they're mitigation. If everyone is wearing a mask then the 'rule' is de facto 1 metre...

HYUFD said:

another_richard said:

Pulpstar said:

another_richard said:

HYUFD said:

another_richard said:

NickPalmer said:

Jeremy Hunt's constituency newsletter (I am an avid reader - it's a good read, with witty asides) predicts that masks in shops eill be compulsory within the next few days.

And does Hunt have views on whether masks should be worn in pubs and restaurants ?

Less than 10% wear them in the supermarkets I've been to.

So that's a lot of people who might get annoyed - not a vote winner.

And if wearing masks are necessary now then the government is admitting it fucked up massively by neither encouraging them four months ago nor ensuring their supply - again not a vote winner.

60% of voters now want masks to be compulsory for shoppers, including 57% of Tory voters

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1282713273817866242?s=20

And less than 10% wear them.

So your poll is bollox.

Hmm I think people don't wear them because others don't. If there's a degree of compulsion that changes the equation.

They might wear them but its not going to be a vote winner.

They'll also want to know why they need to wear them now when the government has told them for four months that they don't.

And they'll want to know why politicians don't bother wearing them while telling others to do so.

Boris wore a mask today, Macron wears a mask, Xi wears a mask, Biden wears a mask, even Trump wore a mask at the weekend

MaxPB said:

Anabobazina said:

MaxPB said:

Anabobazina said:

What’s the PB pub-going factor like? Have we all been down the pub - or not? I’ve been twice, albeit to the same pub both times!

Opening day, Saturday just gone and yesterday. Going Thursday evening as well to meet some work colleagues.

Good for you, hope you enjoyed it. I did!

Very much, it was quite a relief to be back in the pub, next weekend I'm meeting some friends and we haven't seen each other in person since before lockdown, everyone is looking forwards to it a lot and the pub is hosting a BBQ day which is going to be great.

another_richard said:

HYUFD said:

another_richard said:

Pulpstar said:

another_richard said:

HYUFD said:

another_richard said:

NickPalmer said:

Jeremy Hunt's constituency newsletter (I am an avid reader - it's a good read, with witty asides) predicts that masks in shops eill be compulsory within the next few days.

And does Hunt have views on whether masks should be worn in pubs and restaurants ?

Less than 10% wear them in the supermarkets I've been to.

So that's a lot of people who might get annoyed - not a vote winner.

And if wearing masks are necessary now then the government is admitting it fucked up massively by neither encouraging them four months ago nor ensuring their supply - again not a vote winner.

60% of voters now want masks to be compulsory for shoppers, including 57% of Tory voters

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1282713273817866242?s=20

And less than 10% wear them.

So your poll is bollox.

Hmm I think people don't wear them because others don't. If there's a degree of compulsion that changes the equation.

They might wear them but its not going to be a vote winner.

They'll also want to know why they need to wear them now when the government has told them for four months that they don't.

And they'll want to know why politicians don't bother wearing them while telling others to do so.

Boris wore a mask today, Macron wears a mask, Xi wears a mask, Biden wears a mask, even Trump wore a mask at the weekend

Boris will have to wear a mask every day from now on.

And as soon as he doesn't the photos will be taken.

another_richard said:

HYUFD said:

another_richard said:

HYUFD said:

another_richard said:

HYUFD said:

another_richard said:

HYUFD said:

another_richard said:

NickPalmer said:

Jeremy Hunt's constituency newsletter (I am an avid reader - it's a good read, with witty asides) predicts that masks in shops eill be compulsory within the next few days.

And does Hunt have views on whether masks should be worn in pubs and restaurants ?

Less than 10% wear them in the supermarkets I've been to.

So that's a lot of people who might get annoyed - not a vote winner.

And if wearing masks are necessary now then the government is admitting it fucked up massively by neither encouraging them four months ago nor ensuring their supply - again not a vote winner.

60% of voters now want masks to be compulsory for shoppers, including 57% of Tory voters

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1282713273817866242?s=20

And less than 10% wear them.

So your poll is bollox.

It isn't because it is not yet the law to make wearing them mandatory as it is on public transport, by the end of the week it likely will be the law and compulsory to wear a facemask while shopping

And High Streets will be even more bolloxed.

Still it means more profits for Amazon.

And good luck getting people to go to pubs and restaurants after they've been told that its not safe.

The reverse, wearing facemasks reduces the spread of Covid making it safer to go shopping, not making facemasks compulsory means it is more sensible to shop via online delivery rather than in store

People will be more afraid and so will go out less.

Whereas there's sod all risk currently going to the shops.

Take a look at where the outbreaks occur - factories, farms, care homes and hospitals. Not shops.

But by your reasoning people will not go to pubs and restaurants because masks aren't worn on those.

Utter rubbish.

As nichomar pointed out below studies show 70% of people will get infected if an infected person in their proximity does not wear a mask, only 5% will if an infected person does wear a mask.

Face masks are already compulsory for staff in care homes and hospitals, if you are in a pub you are on one table with limited numbers allowed inside not constantly in others vicinity in shopping aisles

You'll bleat whatever the current party line is.

Three days ago you would have told us that masks are not necessary.

Black_Rook said:

RobD said:

Black_Rook said:

RobD said:

another_richard said:

HYUFD said:

another_richard said:

NickPalmer said:

Jeremy Hunt's constituency newsletter (I am an avid reader - it's a good read, with witty asides) predicts that masks in shops eill be compulsory within the next few days.

And does Hunt have views on whether masks should be worn in pubs and restaurants ?

Less than 10% wear them in the supermarkets I've been to.

So that's a lot of people who might get annoyed - not a vote winner.

And if wearing masks are necessary now then the government is admitting it fucked up massively by neither encouraging them four months ago nor ensuring their supply - again not a vote winner.

60% of voters now want masks to be compulsory for shoppers, including 57% of Tory voters

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1282713273817866242?s=20

And less than 10% wear them.

So your poll is bollox.

I thought the fraction was higher than that now, approaching a third or so?

Not if what I saw in Cambridge when I was out shopping on Saturday is anything to go by. Mask use at perhaps 5%, certainly no more than 10%, and quite a lot of those were being worn as completely useless necklaces by people who were yakking on the phone, walking along whilst eating stuff, or probably in some cases just plain straightforward sick of breathing through a rag.

I think these polls showing massive support for the things are just examples of people giving virtue signalling answers. In reality then don't mind masks being theoretically imposed upon other people, but have no intention of using them themselves.

Polling says it's up to a third - https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-53388444

Either there's a massive, huge concentration of mask wearers elsewhere in the country or people are telling porkies. My money's on the latter. Opinion polls are not the Voice of God, they don't reveal the exact truth 100% of the time.

Pulpstar said:

another_richard said:

Pulpstar said:

another_richard said:

And they'll want to know why politicians don't bother wearing them while telling others to do so.

Every single Tory MP will have a photo with a mask on in a shop on their twitter when they change it.

Too late.

Months of photos of them pulling pints, getting hair cuts and shopping without masks.

So they'll need to explain why masks were not needed for four months but are needed now.

And they'll be asked to apologise for the tens of thousands of lives lost because they told people not to wear masks.

The barber shop I passed by running had screens and masks and customers wearing masks. The smokers in the doorway of the next door pub looked like 'true heroes of the economy'..

another_richard said:

MaxPB said:

another_richard said:

Pulpstar said:

another_richard said:

HYUFD said:

another_richard said:

NickPalmer said:

Jeremy Hunt's constituency newsletter (I am an avid reader - it's a good read, with witty asides) predicts that masks in shops eill be compulsory within the next few days.

And does Hunt have views on whether masks should be worn in pubs and restaurants ?

Less than 10% wear them in the supermarkets I've been to.

So that's a lot of people who might get annoyed - not a vote winner.

And if wearing masks are necessary now then the government is admitting it fucked up massively by neither encouraging them four months ago nor ensuring their supply - again not a vote winner.

60% of voters now want masks to be compulsory for shoppers, including 57% of Tory voters

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1282713273817866242?s=20

And less than 10% wear them.

So your poll is bollox.

Hmm I think people don't wear them because others don't. If there's a degree of compulsion that changes the equation.

They might wear them but its not going to be a vote winner.

They'll also want to know why they need to wear them now when the government has told them for four months that they don't.

And they'll want to know why politicians don't bother wearing them while telling others to do so.

It's not that difficult because the government can say it's part of moving away from 2m social distancing to 1m social distancing and allowing larger groups of people to be in the same place (no more queueing, groups of 20 people meeting outdoors etc...). Honestly, if the government links mask wearing to no longer having to queue up to shop then it will be a very big vote winner.

I disagree but we'll see.

I suspect that as in most changes the government will be blamed for negative effects while getting little appreciation for positive effects.

Black_Rook said:

nichomar said:

Black_Rook said:

Pulpstar said:

solarflare said:

I wonder at what point it'll move on to encouraging, then recommending, then mandating them outside, too. And it'll be "because there's less risk, but there's still a risk".

I don't think they'll be mandated for simply being outside at any point.

I hope you're right, but I wouldn't put anything past this Government. They wouldn't even be the first to do it. There are draconian mask rules already in force in Spain, for example.

Severe yes but not harsh, and widely supported, we don’t want to go back to where we were with a total lockdown for 50+ days.

Well, like I said further down thread, putting up with masks in shops is one thing but being made to breathe through a bedsheet whenever you leave the house is another. It's ineffectual, completely unnecessary (whatever country you're living in,) and therefore just the sort of thing that a Government would mandate purely in order to look like it was "doing something."

Outdoor settings (especially if you avoid facilities like outdoor playgrounds and gyms, where you have hard surfaces that are frequently handled,) present a very low to negligible risk of transmission. Passing somebody walking the other way on the pavement or wandering around in a park is very safe. We've even had mass gatherings on beaches, to which precisely no subsequent disease spikes have been linked. The relative safety of outdoor settings has been established from relatively early on in this epidemic and has never been seriously questioned.

Thus, "masks everywhere" is quackery, and any administration attempting to impose such a policy by diktat are charlatans.

Philip_Thompson said:

Black_Rook said:

nichomar said:

Black_Rook said:

Pulpstar said:

solarflare said:

I wonder at what point it'll move on to encouraging, then recommending, then mandating them outside, too. And it'll be "because there's less risk, but there's still a risk".

I don't think they'll be mandated for simply being outside at any point.

I hope you're right, but I wouldn't put anything past this Government. They wouldn't even be the first to do it. There are draconian mask rules already in force in Spain, for example.

Severe yes but not harsh, and widely supported, we don’t want to go back to where we were with a total lockdown for 50+ days.

Well, like I said further down thread, putting up with masks in shops is one thing but being made to breathe through a bedsheet whenever you leave the house is another. It's ineffectual, completely unnecessary (whatever country you're living in,) and therefore just the sort of thing that a Government would mandate purely in order to look like it was "doing something."

Outdoor settings (especially if you avoid facilities like outdoor playgrounds and gyms, where you have hard surfaces that are frequently handled,) present a very low to negligible risk of transmission. Passing somebody walking the other way on the pavement or wandering around in a park is very safe. We've even had mass gatherings on beaches, to which precisely no subsequent disease spikes have been linked. The relative safety of outdoor settings has been established from relatively early on in this epidemic and has never been seriously questioned.

Thus, "masks everywhere" is quackery, and any administration attempting to impose such a policy by diktat are charlatans.

What about masks wherever smoking bans are in force? IE indoors, train platforms etc

Philip_Thompson said:

Black_Rook said:

nichomar said:

Black_Rook said:

Pulpstar said:

solarflare said:

I wonder at what point it'll move on to encouraging, then recommending, then mandating them outside, too. And it'll be "because there's less risk, but there's still a risk".

I don't think they'll be mandated for simply being outside at any point.

I hope you're right, but I wouldn't put anything past this Government. They wouldn't even be the first to do it. There are draconian mask rules already in force in Spain, for example.

Severe yes but not harsh, and widely supported, we don’t want to go back to where we were with a total lockdown for 50+ days.

Well, like I said further down thread, putting up with masks in shops is one thing but being made to breathe through a bedsheet whenever you leave the house is another. It's ineffectual, completely unnecessary (whatever country you're living in,) and therefore just the sort of thing that a Government would mandate purely in order to look like it was "doing something."

Outdoor settings (especially if you avoid facilities like outdoor playgrounds and gyms, where you have hard surfaces that are frequently handled,) present a very low to negligible risk of transmission. Passing somebody walking the other way on the pavement or wandering around in a park is very safe. We've even had mass gatherings on beaches, to which precisely no subsequent disease spikes have been linked. The relative safety of outdoor settings has been established from relatively early on in this epidemic and has never been seriously questioned.

Thus, "masks everywhere" is quackery, and any administration attempting to impose such a policy by diktat are charlatans.

What about masks wherever smoking bans are in force? IE indoors, train platforms etc

noneoftheabove said:

Black_Rook said:

RobD said:

Black_Rook said:

RobD said:

another_richard said:

HYUFD said:

another_richard said:

NickPalmer said:

Jeremy Hunt's constituency newsletter (I am an avid reader - it's a good read, with witty asides) predicts that masks in shops eill be compulsory within the next few days.

And does Hunt have views on whether masks should be worn in pubs and restaurants ?

Less than 10% wear them in the supermarkets I've been to.

So that's a lot of people who might get annoyed - not a vote winner.

And if wearing masks are necessary now then the government is admitting it fucked up massively by neither encouraging them four months ago nor ensuring their supply - again not a vote winner.

60% of voters now want masks to be compulsory for shoppers, including 57% of Tory voters

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1282713273817866242?s=20

And less than 10% wear them.

So your poll is bollox.

I thought the fraction was higher than that now, approaching a third or so?

Not if what I saw in Cambridge when I was out shopping on Saturday is anything to go by. Mask use at perhaps 5%, certainly no more than 10%, and quite a lot of those were being worn as completely useless necklaces by people who were yakking on the phone, walking along whilst eating stuff, or probably in some cases just plain straightforward sick of breathing through a rag.

I think these polls showing massive support for the things are just examples of people giving virtue signalling answers. In reality then don't mind masks being theoretically imposed upon other people, but have no intention of using them themselves.

Polling says it's up to a third - https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-53388444

Either there's a massive, huge concentration of mask wearers elsewhere in the country or people are telling porkies. My money's on the latter. Opinion polls are not the Voice of God, they don't reveal the exact truth 100% of the time.

Definitely agree opinion polls wont tell the exact truth but just been on tube for first time and mask compliance 85-90%. Nearly all take it off immediately leaving the station.

MaxPB said:

Anabobazina said:

MaxPB said:

Anabobazina said:

MaxPB said:

Anabobazina said:

What’s the PB pub-going factor like? Have we all been down the pub - or not? I’ve been twice, albeit to the same pub both times!

Opening day, Saturday just gone and yesterday. Going Thursday evening as well to meet some work colleagues.

Good for you, hope you enjoyed it. I did!

Very much, it was quite a relief to be back in the pub, next weekend I'm meeting some friends and we haven't seen each other in person since before lockdown, everyone is looking forwards to it a lot and the pub is hosting a BBQ day which is going to be great.

Fantastic. It’s great to hear these stories. We met friends at the pub last weekend and hosted Sunday lunch yesterday. Really, the best things in life are free or almost free (although I did spend £60 on a rib of beef!)

That rib of beef sounds great. Hoping that the pubs are actually able to turn a profit from this, but it was actually pretty empty yesterday, the same pub is normally pretty full for Sunday lunch. One of my local ones is turning the parking into a temporary structure with more shade and protection from the rain.

MaxPB said:

another_richard said:

MaxPB said:

another_richard said:

Pulpstar said:

another_richard said:

HYUFD said:

another_richard said:

NickPalmer said:

Jeremy Hunt's constituency newsletter (I am an avid reader - it's a good read, with witty asides) predicts that masks in shops eill be compulsory within the next few days.

And does Hunt have views on whether masks should be worn in pubs and restaurants ?

Less than 10% wear them in the supermarkets I've been to.

So that's a lot of people who might get annoyed - not a vote winner.

And if wearing masks are necessary now then the government is admitting it fucked up massively by neither encouraging them four months ago nor ensuring their supply - again not a vote winner.

60% of voters now want masks to be compulsory for shoppers, including 57% of Tory voters

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1282713273817866242?s=20

And less than 10% wear them.

So your poll is bollox.

Hmm I think people don't wear them because others don't. If there's a degree of compulsion that changes the equation.

They might wear them but its not going to be a vote winner.

They'll also want to know why they need to wear them now when the government has told them for four months that they don't.

And they'll want to know why politicians don't bother wearing them while telling others to do so.

It's not that difficult because the government can say it's part of moving away from 2m social distancing to 1m social distancing and allowing larger groups of people to be in the same place (no more queueing, groups of 20 people meeting outdoors etc...). Honestly, if the government links mask wearing to no longer having to queue up to shop then it will be a very big vote winner.

I disagree but we'll see.

I suspect that as in most changes the government will be blamed for negative effects while getting little appreciation for positive effects.

But there are few to no negative effects from mask wearing.

ThomasNashe said:

Anabobazina said:

What’s the PB pub-going factor like? Have we all been down the pub - or not? I’ve been twice, albeit to the same pub both times!

Just back from the excellent Station House in Acton. Early evening on a Monday - and it was very busy. It appears to have been doing a roaring trade since reopening. On the other hand, went to Richmond last week - and it was eerily quiet like so much of central London.

FF43 said:

another_richard said:

HYUFD said:

another_richard said:

HYUFD said:

another_richard said:

HYUFD said:

another_richard said:

NickPalmer said:

Jeremy Hunt's constituency newsletter (I am an avid reader - it's a good read, with witty asides) predicts that masks in shops eill be compulsory within the next few days.

And does Hunt have views on whether masks should be worn in pubs and restaurants ?

Less than 10% wear them in the supermarkets I've been to.

So that's a lot of people who might get annoyed - not a vote winner.

And if wearing masks are necessary now then the government is admitting it fucked up massively by neither encouraging them four months ago nor ensuring their supply - again not a vote winner.

60% of voters now want masks to be compulsory for shoppers, including 57% of Tory voters

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1282713273817866242?s=20

And less than 10% wear them.

So your poll is bollox.

It isn't because it is not yet the law to make wearing them mandatory as it is on public transport, by the end of the week it likely will be the law and compulsory to wear a facemask while shopping

And High Streets will be even more bolloxed.

Still it means more profits for Amazon.

And good luck getting people to go to pubs and restaurants after they've been told that its not safe.

The reverse, wearing facemasks reduces the spread of Covid making it safer to go shopping, not making facemasks compulsory means it is more sensible to shop via online delivery rather than in store

People will be more afraid and so will go out less.

Whereas there's sod all risk currently going to the shops.

Take a look at where the outbreaks occur - factories, farms, care homes and hospitals. Not shops.

But by your reasoning people will not go to pubs and restaurants because masks aren't worn on those.

There was a graphic, possibly posted here, of a range of behaviours ranked from 1 least risk of transmission to 9 greatest risk. Coming in at 9, absolutely the highest risk, was going to pubs (along with mass events, which are still banned in most places). Too many people in poorly ventilated spaces, too close together and shouting at each other and uninhibited behaviour due to alcohol. If the goal is to control the epidemic, pubs objectively should be closed, at least indoors, while other things that remain closed might actually be allowed. The reason pubs are open is economic particularly concerning employment and possibly also the perception that opening pubs is politically popular. The first point I get, but I'm not sure pubs are actually that popular and if the epidemic takes off again, fingers might get pointed in that direction. Pubs were closing anyway because people are not going to them so much.

BannedinnParis said:

FF43 said:

another_richard said:

HYUFD said:

another_richard said:

HYUFD said:

another_richard said:

HYUFD said:

another_richard said:

NickPalmer said:

Jeremy Hunt's constituency newsletter (I am an avid reader - it's a good read, with witty asides) predicts that masks in shops eill be compulsory within the next few days.

And does Hunt have views on whether masks should be worn in pubs and restaurants ?

Less than 10% wear them in the supermarkets I've been to.

So that's a lot of people who might get annoyed - not a vote winner.

And if wearing masks are necessary now then the government is admitting it fucked up massively by neither encouraging them four months ago nor ensuring their supply - again not a vote winner.

60% of voters now want masks to be compulsory for shoppers, including 57% of Tory voters

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1282713273817866242?s=20

And less than 10% wear them.

So your poll is bollox.

It isn't because it is not yet the law to make wearing them mandatory as it is on public transport, by the end of the week it likely will be the law and compulsory to wear a facemask while shopping

And High Streets will be even more bolloxed.

Still it means more profits for Amazon.

And good luck getting people to go to pubs and restaurants after they've been told that its not safe.

The reverse, wearing facemasks reduces the spread of Covid making it safer to go shopping, not making facemasks compulsory means it is more sensible to shop via online delivery rather than in store

People will be more afraid and so will go out less.

Whereas there's sod all risk currently going to the shops.

Take a look at where the outbreaks occur - factories, farms, care homes and hospitals. Not shops.

But by your reasoning people will not go to pubs and restaurants because masks aren't worn on those.

There was a graphic, possibly posted here, of a range of behaviours ranked from 1 least risk of transmission to 9 greatest risk. Coming in at 9, absolutely the highest risk, was going to pubs (along with mass events, which are still banned in most places). Too many people in poorly ventilated spaces, too close together and shouting at each other and uninhibited behaviour due to alcohol. If the goal is to control the epidemic, pubs objectively should be closed, at least indoors, while other things that remain closed might actually be allowed. The reason pubs are open is economic particularly concerning employment and possibly also the perception that opening pubs is politically popular. The first point I get, but I'm not sure pubs are actually that popular and if the epidemic takes off again, fingers might get pointed in that direction. Pubs were closing anyway because people are not going to them so much.

nope, there was evidence the sector was turning the corner, with more pubs opening than closing in year ending March 2019. This trend had been expected to continue.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50743853

alex_ said:

I think perhaps the main problem for many pubs in the lack of “spontaneous” passing trade. When you potentially have to plan every trip, arrange to meet people in advance etc etc, it’s just a big effort that many can’t be bothered with. Especially having got used to months at home not going out.

Anabobazina said:

alex_ said:

I think perhaps the main problem for many pubs in the lack of “spontaneous” passing trade. When you potentially have to plan every trip, arrange to meet people in advance etc etc, it’s just a big effort that many can’t be bothered with. Especially having got used to months at home not going out.

You can just turn up. I’m not sure where this “you have to book” idea came from. It’s not true.

SandyRentool said:

The news from Wales today stipulates "three layer" face coverings. Does anyone know if that is the rule in England or does any old rag suffice?

LadyG said:

Just been to see a very very old friend who is now dying of a covid-related disease.

Desperately sad. Early 50s. Teen kids.

Wear a damn mask when you shop. How hard is that?

alex_ said:

Anabobazina said:

alex_ said:

I think perhaps the main problem for many pubs in the lack of “spontaneous” passing trade. When you potentially have to plan every trip, arrange to meet people in advance etc etc, it’s just a big effort that many can’t be bothered with. Especially having got used to months at home not going out.

You can just turn up. I’m not sure where this “you have to book” idea came from. It’s not true.

A lot of people don’t know. And some many pubs, particularly those without outside areas, are at least “encouraging” people to book.

Barnesian said:

Pulpstar said:

Barnesian said:

Latest data on cases.

Number of cases have plateaued. R is now about 1. Slightly above 1 in London. Incidence per million is still low overall though there are several hotspots as highlighted by Malmesbury in his spreadsheet.

Endemic steady state ?

Could be. It's a battle between test, track and trace which is bearing down on it, and relaxing of guidelines which is causing it to rise somewhat. The incidence is low so it is currently manageable but could take off again.

RH1992 said:

alex_ said:

Are there any stats on positive cases as a percentage of tests at the moment? How much testing is going on in various countries of the EU at present compared to what is going on here? Because if we are actually doing significantly higher levels of testing (I don’t know if we are) then some of the reported numbers in places of the EU are pretty high.

On one level I wonder if the Govt think that numbers might start growing again, and are looking to position the U.K. as “star performers” second time around. Not that I think this is ever going to be very likely as you have to perform very well as a large country to look good.

I was thinking the same. Spain and France have added more new cases than the UK on a number of occasions over the last week or so. So if we're testing a lot more then our underlying position looks fairly strong now, it's just about not letting that go into reverse.

Anabobazina said:

BannedinnParis said:

FF43 said:

another_richard said:

HYUFD said:

another_richard said:

HYUFD said:

another_richard said:

HYUFD said:

another_richard said:

NickPalmer said:

Jeremy Hunt's constituency newsletter (I am an avid reader - it's a good read, with witty asides) predicts that masks in shops eill be compulsory within the next few days.

And does Hunt have views on whether masks should be worn in pubs and restaurants ?

Less than 10% wear them in the supermarkets I've been to.

So that's a lot of people who might get annoyed - not a vote winner.

And if wearing masks are necessary now then the government is admitting it fucked up massively by neither encouraging them four months ago nor ensuring their supply - again not a vote winner.

60% of voters now want masks to be compulsory for shoppers, including 57% of Tory voters

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1282713273817866242?s=20

And less than 10% wear them.

So your poll is bollox.

It isn't because it is not yet the law to make wearing them mandatory as it is on public transport, by the end of the week it likely will be the law and compulsory to wear a facemask while shopping

And High Streets will be even more bolloxed.

Still it means more profits for Amazon.

And good luck getting people to go to pubs and restaurants after they've been told that its not safe.

The reverse, wearing facemasks reduces the spread of Covid making it safer to go shopping, not making facemasks compulsory means it is more sensible to shop via online delivery rather than in store

People will be more afraid and so will go out less.

Whereas there's sod all risk currently going to the shops.

Take a look at where the outbreaks occur - factories, farms, care homes and hospitals. Not shops.

But by your reasoning people will not go to pubs and restaurants because masks aren't worn on those.

There was a graphic, possibly posted here, of a range of behaviours ranked from 1 least risk of transmission to 9 greatest risk. Coming in at 9, absolutely the highest risk, was going to pubs (along with mass events, which are still banned in most places). Too many people in poorly ventilated spaces, too close together and shouting at each other and uninhibited behaviour due to alcohol. If the goal is to control the epidemic, pubs objectively should be closed, at least indoors, while other things that remain closed might actually be allowed. The reason pubs are open is economic particularly concerning employment and possibly also the perception that opening pubs is politically popular. The first point I get, but I'm not sure pubs are actually that popular and if the epidemic takes off again, fingers might get pointed in that direction. Pubs were closing anyway because people are not going to them so much.

nope, there was evidence the sector was turning the corner, with more pubs opening than closing in year ending March 2019. This trend had been expected to continue.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50743853

Lots of utter garbage posted on PB about pubs from people who seemingly never visit them.

Anabobazina said:

alex_ said:

I think perhaps the main problem for many pubs in the lack of “spontaneous” passing trade. When you potentially have to plan every trip, arrange to meet people in advance etc etc, it’s just a big effort that many can’t be bothered with. Especially having got used to months at home not going out.

You can just turn up. I’m not sure where this “you have to book” idea came from. It’s not true.

nichomar said:

RH1992 said:

alex_ said:

Are there any stats on positive cases as a percentage of tests at the moment? How much testing is going on in various countries of the EU at present compared to what is going on here? Because if we are actually doing significantly higher levels of testing (I don’t know if we are) then some of the reported numbers in places of the EU are pretty high.

On one level I wonder if the Govt think that numbers might start growing again, and are looking to position the U.K. as “star performers” second time around. Not that I think this is ever going to be very likely as you have to perform very well as a large country to look good.

I was thinking the same. Spain and France have added more new cases than the UK on a number of occasions over the last week or so. So if we're testing a lot more then our underlying position looks fairly strong now, it's just about not letting that go into reverse.

ESPAÑA

Casos Totales:255.953
Diagnosticados últimas 24 horas: 164 Diagnosticados últimos 7 días: 3933 Diagnosticados últimos 14 días: 6535 Incidencia Acumulada (IA): 13,9 Número reproductivo básico (Rt): 0,9
Fallecidos:28.406
Fallecidos últimos 7 días: 7
Recuperados:18-05-2020150.376
Hospitalizados: 125.751 Hospitalizados últimos 7 días: 146 UCI: 11.716 UCI últimos 7 días: 8

The worrying figure is the 7 day/14 day figures showing a significant increase.

LadyG said:

alex_ said:

I think perhaps the main problem for many pubs in the lack of “spontaneous” passing trade. When you potentially have to plan every trip, arrange to meet people in advance etc etc, it’s just a big effort that many can’t be bothered with. Especially having got used to months at home not going out.

This is almost every pub in central London (and to a lesser extent, Brum, Manc, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Leeds, Bristol, Belfast). As things stand they are all doomed.

The damage will be incalculable, and the cascade effect is, in prospect, terrifying. Read across for the USA, France, Spain, Italy....

alex_ said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/GeorgeWParker/status/1282768266998489091

It’ll keep the virus out in the second wave though...

LadyG said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

LadyG said:

Just been to see a very very old friend who is now dying of a covid-related disease.

Desperately sad. Early 50s. Teen kids.

Wear a damn mask when you shop. How hard is that?

Thanks LG. I hate wearing a mask but promise to try harder in future.

Btw, we recently compared estimates of where the final US death tally ends. You went for 175,000; I suggested 200,000. It's currently 138,000. Sadly it looks like even my figure may be on the low side.

That clown in the White House has a lot to answer for.

To be fair to Trump (!!!) there is no perfect response to this if you're the leader of a normal large western country. The East Asian countries have 1. a memory of SARS, 2. a rule obeying populace, 3. a culture of mask wearing

None of these apply in big western nations, consequently, all have done badly, with the possible exception of Germany (but we aren't even halfway through this horror, yet, so who knows)

I am more pessimistic now, about covid and its medical/economic consequences, than I have ever been. And boy, have I been pessimistic before.

Absent a vaccine, I think we are FUCKED with a capital F plus UCKED

LadyG said:

Black_Rook said:

LadyG said:

alex_ said:

I think perhaps the main problem for many pubs in the lack of “spontaneous” passing trade. When you potentially have to plan every trip, arrange to meet people in advance etc etc, it’s just a big effort that many can’t be bothered with. Especially having got used to months at home not going out.

This is almost every pub in central London (and to a lesser extent, Brum, Manc, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Leeds, Bristol, Belfast). As things stand they are all doomed.

The damage will be incalculable, and the cascade effect is, in prospect, terrifying. Read across for the USA, France, Spain, Italy...

A natural consequence of what demand there is for these leisure activities (and, based on my admittedly limited observations so far, quite a lot still exists) being concentrated in the places where people live now, rather than where they used to work or go for days out in February.

Logically, the pubs, cafes and restaurants with the best chance of survival are those which (a) obtain most of their custom from locals, arriving on foot or via short car journeys, most of whom will be regular or semi-regular patrons, and (b) have plenty of space to cope with the social distancing problem, or are able to compensate adequately for the lack thereof through takeaway sales.

Old fashioned pubs with no gardens in city centres will only survive if they belong to chains or big breweries, and the ultimate owners are willing to mothball them or run them at a loss whilst they wait for this horror to play out.

They will all be mothballed, I reckon.

Our big city high streets will become ghost towns. Why should they not? People are terrified.

I have been telling this to relatives for weeks: Central London is fucked. The amazing thing is, my relatives are as stupid as PBers. They say "Oh well, the economy needed to be rebalanced". They don't seem to understand this is value and capital being simply destroyed, never to return.

Central London is/was a unique eco-system which provided squillions to UK PLC. Foreign tourists, students and others funnelled in cash via property, rates, VAT, consumption, on and on.

Take all of that away and it won't "disperse" to small towns in Dorset or the Isle of Harris.

It will just go. The closest analogy - economically - is a major war with serious urban bombing, which levels structures which cannot be rebuilt.