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  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,599

    houndtang said:

    I've had enough of this - how people are still buying this bollocks is beyond me. My father spent his last weeks of his life alone because of lockdown - given the choice I'm sure he'd have rather taken the risk and had the company. The story of covid is hysteria and moral panic on a global scale and the government has behaved disgracefully from the get go. Now they want to insist on us wearing masks. They can fuck right off. PS I voted Tory in December, this plus insipid reaction to BLM protests means I never will again.

    Masks are twattish bollocks.

    I will do by absolute best to wear one as little as possible and break the boundaries of the rules as much as I can.

    Placebo crap. Might as well fit a condom onto a cucumber and strap it onto your head.
    +1
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,898
    It's also interesting to see Boris Johnson slowly ramping up the anti-home worker rhetoric. I suspect all social distancing will be abandoned at the end of August to a) get all the children back in school and b) encourage an autumn "return to the office".

    To be fair, 50% capacity in offices in August would be an increase on the usual but apparently it will be every back office worker's "civic duty" to put the suit back on, march proudly back to the station, stand proudly on the train, queue proudly in Pret and then sit proudly at their desk contemplating how much they have rescued the economy.

    The irony that Boris Johnson is a home worker himself isn't lost on me but it's no more than the usual guff of there being one law for him and another for the rest of us. If he can work at home, why can't anyone else?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Bummed today that Polish electoral commission says, with 99.99% of vote counted in 2020 presidential runoff election, incumbent Andrzej Duda winner at 51.03% over challenger Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski. Though legal challenges to irregularities are likely, Mayor T has conceded to the Dud.

    Link below features map of results by county, showing clear east versus west (actually more north-east v south-west) divide; note that Warsaw, Krakow, Gdasnk, Łódź, Poznań, Wrocław, other cities voted for Mayor T thus the orange enclaves surrounded by blue.

    As for rural areas, with few exceptions (such as Poznań & vicinity also county on eastern border with sizeable Belarus minority) only ones to support opposition were in areas that were part of German Reich in 1939

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Polish_presidential_election
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    Mortimer said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    houndtang said:

    I've had enough of this - how people are still buying this bollocks is beyond me. My father spent his last weeks of his life alone because of lockdown - given the choice I'm sure he'd have rather taken the risk and had the company. The story of covid is hysteria and moral panic on a global scale and the government has behaved disgracefully from the get go. Now they want to insist on us wearing masks. They can fuck right off. PS I voted Tory in December, this plus insipid reaction to BLM protests means I never will again.

    Masks are twattish bollocks.

    I will do by absolute best to wear one as little as possible and break the boundaries of the rules as much as I can.

    Placebo crap. Might as well fit a condom onto a cucumber and strap it onto your head.
    I don't understand your problem with masks.

    The scientific evidence is they work and the more they minimise R the less we need other actions to take the burden.

    I'd rather masks than alternative restrictions.
    I'm in favour of compulsory masks in shops, but I'm certainly not claiming the libertarian label. Are you still doing so ?
    I'm a shop owner - though admittedly one without skin in the game as I don't intend to reopen in the short-medium term - who would feel very hard done to if shops had to mandate masks, but pubs didn't....
    Wouldn’t it rather defeat the object of reopening if pubs had to order patrons to wear masks?
    Probably. But the point I'm making is not that I'm pro masks in pubs. That would clearly be crackers.

    My point is that if it isn't necessary in pubs, where people are in a stationary position in relatively close contact with others, drinking, how is it necessary for fleeting encounters, largely distanced, in shops?
    Isn't it about globally minimising infections. Don't know about anyone else but I'll go to the pub to have a drink and a chat with friends, the last shops I headed out to were B&Q for lightbulbs and Pet At Home for catfood. I think there should be some common sense applied too - the outdoor area of a garden centre for instance is an area where you don't need to bother with a mask.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,217

    BREAKING NEWS - an uninformed source from outside the inner circle of the Trump campaign says that, at the upcoming Republican National Convention in Jacksonville, the President will announce that Mike Pence is being replaced as VP running mate by . . . wait for it . . . Kanye West.

    I'm happy to offer you some quite good odds if you like.

    How about £20 at 5-to-1?

    You would win £100 if Trump replaces Pence with Kanye. (Can't say fairer than that.)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    Mortimer said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    houndtang said:

    I've had enough of this - how people are still buying this bollocks is beyond me. My father spent his last weeks of his life alone because of lockdown - given the choice I'm sure he'd have rather taken the risk and had the company. The story of covid is hysteria and moral panic on a global scale and the government has behaved disgracefully from the get go. Now they want to insist on us wearing masks. They can fuck right off. PS I voted Tory in December, this plus insipid reaction to BLM protests means I never will again.

    Masks are twattish bollocks.

    I will do by absolute best to wear one as little as possible and break the boundaries of the rules as much as I can.

    Placebo crap. Might as well fit a condom onto a cucumber and strap it onto your head.
    I don't understand your problem with masks.

    The scientific evidence is they work and the more they minimise R the less we need other actions to take the burden.

    I'd rather masks than alternative restrictions.
    I'm in favour of compulsory masks in shops, but I'm certainly not claiming the libertarian label. Are you still doing so ?
    I'm a shop owner - though admittedly one without skin in the game as I don't intend to reopen in the short-medium term - who would feel very hard done to if shops had to mandate masks, but pubs didn't....
    Wouldn’t it rather defeat the object of reopening if pubs had to order patrons to wear masks?
    Probably. But the point I'm making is not that I'm pro masks in pubs. That would clearly be crackers.

    My point is that if it isn't necessary in pubs, where people are in a stationary position in relatively close contact with others, drinking, how is it necessary for fleeting encounters, largely distanced, in shops?
    You move around more in a shop (read - supermarket) and therefore could potentially infect more people.

    In your case, I agree, it would seem pointless even if it wasn’t moot.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,138
    stodge said:


    I wear a mask in shops - have done all the time- but, as my brother's experience has suggested, you really need a full hazmat suit to go to the Co-Op. It's my brother's view he picked up something an asymptomatic person had just put back and that's how he was re-infected.

    If he's right then he was pretty unlucky. But of course the point of mask wearing is not that it reduces the risk for an individual to zero, but less ambitiously that it reduces the probability of infection in some encounters across the whole population. If masks do that then they help reduce the R number, which means that, as a population, we can get away with a greater amount of riskier activities than we could otherwise, without tipping back into another widespread increase in cases.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    Mortimer said:

    I would be very wary, if I were in government, of mandating mask usage at the moment in shops - for a number of reasons:

    ...

    Non essential retail is escapism. I don't want constant reminders of a pandemic whilst engaging in it.

    That ship has sailed. It takes one person in a mask to remind you. It's the lack of clarity that undermines confidence. Decide one way or the other.
    Mortimer said:



    Finally, if I were in government I'd like to keep masks back as more ammo to throw at the problem if community spread grows again. If deployed now, usage will tail off as spread continues to be very low....

    I think that's a mistake. Let's keep it low rather than waiting for the bug to come back first. Better to say for the next X months, let's wear a mask.
    Completely agree on the last point, Jonathan. Let's get people wearing masks now so it doesn't come back.
    Frankly I'd rather shut the insides of pubs than mandate mask wearing in shops. I'd be very surprised if non essential shopping (generally transitory, generally away from others) is higher risk than drinking/dining (generally stationary, generally group based). This would fit with the reopening of shops long before pubs/restaurants too.
    What have you got against masks?
    They piss people off (not on here where everyone gets a boner about masks - or at least a boner about pretending to care about masks) and disincentives going out.

    If people are forced to wear masks many will say: fuck it, let's order off Amazon instead. I can't be bothered.

    We were doing fine with meshes, screens and social distancing. As both out in the figures.

    This is such bullshit.
    I may be being contrary here but the lack of mask wearing by others is what puts me off going shopping.

    Which is why we are once again using Amazon for far too much..
    Really? Why?

    This makes no sense to me whatsoever. I couldn't give two figs about what anyone has on their visage, so long as they stay 2m away.

    It's contaminated surfaces that are more convincing vectors for transmitting the disease - the products people pick up and put down - and no-one is recommending people wear gloves the whole time.

    It's what people touch that worries me. And only that. Masks just piss me off in a myriad of ways.

    Not wearing one. End of.
    The scientific consensus is that contaminated surfaces are unlikely to be a major vector.

    https://twitter.com/jljcolorado/status/1282184696466554883
    That's not scientific consensus. That's someone venturing a guess.

    If it wasn't a vector people wouldn't be washing their hands all the time and disinfecting everything.
    No, there is a scientific consensus on mask wearing. Your personal feelings are quite irrelevant to the general public health, if you don't want to wear one you'll need to stay indoors.
    If we're going to get to the bizarre situation where they're to be mandatory in shops, where people pass fleetingly, and not pubs, where people stay in one place, I think there will be an awful lot of people not going to shops apart for essentials. Probably myself included.
    But everyone who goes to the pub has their details taken down, they can be contacted later to isolate or get tested in case of infection.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    edited July 2020
    stodge said:

    It's also interesting to see Boris Johnson slowly ramping up the anti-home worker rhetoric. I suspect all social distancing will be abandoned at the end of August to a) get all the children back in school and b) encourage an autumn "return to the office".

    To be fair, 50% capacity in offices in August would be an increase on the usual but apparently it will be every back office worker's "civic duty" to put the suit back on, march proudly back to the station, stand proudly on the train, queue proudly in Pret and then sit proudly at their desk contemplating how much they have rescued the economy.

    The irony that Boris Johnson is a home worker himself isn't lost on me but it's no more than the usual guff of there being one law for him and another for the rest of us. If he can work at home, why can't anyone else?

    He and the PM both work from home.

    They just can’t decide which home.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Pulpstar said:

    houndtang said:

    I've had enough of this - how people are still buying this bollocks is beyond me. My father spent his last weeks of his life alone because of lockdown - given the choice I'm sure he'd have rather taken the risk and had the company. The story of covid is hysteria and moral panic on a global scale and the government has behaved disgracefully from the get go. Now they want to insist on us wearing masks. They can fuck right off. PS I voted Tory in December, this plus insipid reaction to BLM protests means I never will again.

    Masks are twattish bollocks.

    I will do by absolute best to wear one as little as possible and break the boundaries of the rules as much as I can.

    Placebo crap. Might as well fit a condom onto a cucumber and strap it onto your head.
    I don't understand your problem with masks.

    The scientific evidence is they work and the more they minimise R the less we need other actions to take the burden.

    I'd rather masks than alternative restrictions.
    I'm in favour of compulsory masks in shops, but I'm certainly not claiming the libertarian label. Are you still doing so ?
    I agree with Gove.

    I think masks should be worn and encouraged, but I don't think they should need to be made compulsory to do so. I think wearing a mask in these circumstances should be considered good manners, like saying please and thank you - I believe in good manners and try to follow them but I don't think they should need to be enforced by law.

    Furthermore while I think that a compulsory mask law would be illiberal, I think if the choice is between shutting down activity with a second lockdown or having the activity but with masks then the latter is the more liberal option.

    Finally I think if shops want to have 'masks must be worn' as their own policy then that is their free choice and is a liberal solution too. Just as if a premise wants to have a 'shirts must be worn' policy.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    One thing you probably can say with reasonable certainty - a compulsory mask policy is going to be manna from heaven for shoplifters ;)
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914

    HYUFD said:
    Consistent with a 10%+ poll shift (or a 5% swing as traditionally thought of) and Trump down to approx 72 ECVs...
    Consistent with Biden doing well in States he has no hope of winning.
    Montana - Over 50% would win it no matter how you look at it ;-)
    2016 Trump got 56% so surprising that Biden 9% ahead now - if he is.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,599
    Does anyone think there's a mismatch in the Betfair odds when you compare Trump's chances of winning the election and winning the popular vote? 2.8 for winning the election and 8 for winning the popular vote. Seems like too much of a gap.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128151441
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.170211116
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Pulpstar said:

    houndtang said:

    I've had enough of this - how people are still buying this bollocks is beyond me. My father spent his last weeks of his life alone because of lockdown - given the choice I'm sure he'd have rather taken the risk and had the company. The story of covid is hysteria and moral panic on a global scale and the government has behaved disgracefully from the get go. Now they want to insist on us wearing masks. They can fuck right off. PS I voted Tory in December, this plus insipid reaction to BLM protests means I never will again.

    Masks are twattish bollocks.

    I will do by absolute best to wear one as little as possible and break the boundaries of the rules as much as I can.

    Placebo crap. Might as well fit a condom onto a cucumber and strap it onto your head.
    I don't understand your problem with masks.

    The scientific evidence is they work and the more they minimise R the less we need other actions to take the burden.

    I'd rather masks than alternative restrictions.
    I'm in favour of compulsory masks in shops, but I'm certainly not claiming the libertarian label. Are you still doing so ?
    My view is masks are either a useful intervention in controlling an endemic and dangerous virus, or they are not. If they are useful, it is only because they are made non-optional. People prevent transmission to others by wearing a mask.

    According to the research I saw they are less effective than washing your hands, not meeting other people at all (lockdown) and keeping a strict 2m distance. But if you accept people are going to meet people, masks have a useful role to play.

    In summary, you wear a mask or you stay at home, for reasons of public safety.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,354

    HYUFD said:
    Consistent with a 10%+ poll shift (or a 5% swing as traditionally thought of) and Trump down to approx 72 ECVs...
    Consistent with Biden doing well in States he has no hope of winning.
    Montana - Over 50% would win it no matter how you look at it ;-)
    2016 Trump got 56% so surprising that Biden 9% ahead now - if he is.
    9% down, LS.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,898
    pm215 said:


    If he's right then he was pretty unlucky. But of course the point of mask wearing is not that it reduces the risk for an individual to zero, but less ambitiously that it reduces the probability of infection in some encounters across the whole population. If masks do that then they help reduce the R number, which means that, as a population, we can get away with a greater amount of riskier activities than we could otherwise, without tipping back into another widespread increase in cases.

    Yes, my brother lives in one of the hotspots down in Kent and he hasn't had a good run. The problem he has is he has never tested negative and he wonders if he will have this for a long time to come.

    My worry is we really still seem to know so little about the numbers who have had it (unreported) and those who are asymptomatic and that's the thing. You feel fine but you're infecting others and that's the tough part.

    Over 60,000 have died yet we still seem to struggle with some basic health and public health questions. The Freedom TO not wear a mask versus the Freedom FROM serious illness or death from a nasty virus - that's freedom for you.

  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    HYUFD said:
    Consistent with a 10%+ poll shift (or a 5% swing as traditionally thought of) and Trump down to approx 72 ECVs...
    Consistent with Biden doing well in States he has no hope of winning.
    Personally think Biden (and Dem for Gov) closer than than in Big Sky Country, and also (though to lesser degree) in Show Me State.

    This November think MO will vote for Our Fearless Leader, but MT may (emphasis on conditional) go for Uncle Joe. But only if he really does NOT need it (like Obama winning IN in 2008).
    The best polls for Biden are in places he really doesn't need. Texas is classic. He's polling brilliantly there but if he takes it he's won by a landslide anyway. If he were doing as well in the true swing states or the rust belt, I'd pretty much want to call the contest now.

    As it is, it reminds me of one of those championship fights where the contender builds up a solid points lead over the first eight rounds but he can't put the defending champ away, and you just know the champ always has a puncher's chance.

    It's never over until it's over.
    Biden also doing pretty well in FL & PA to mention just two less politically-superfluous states. It is NOT as though he's making gains - and Trumpsky is taking hits - in Red states, but NOT in Purple ones.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    HYUFD said:
    Consistent with a 10%+ poll shift (or a 5% swing as traditionally thought of) and Trump down to approx 72 ECVs...
    Consistent with Biden doing well in States he has no hope of winning.
    Montana - Over 50% would win it no matter how you look at it ;-)
    2016 Trump got 56% so surprising that Biden 9% ahead now - if he is.
    Poll says Biden -9 behind in Big Sky Country.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,217
    houndtang said:

    I've had enough of this - how people are still buying this bollocks is beyond me. My father spent his last weeks of his life alone because of lockdown - given the choice I'm sure he'd have rather taken the risk and had the company. The story of covid is hysteria and moral panic on a global scale and the government has behaved disgracefully from the get go. Now they want to insist on us wearing masks. They can fuck right off. PS I voted Tory in December, this plus insipid reaction to BLM protests means I never will again.

    Well, won't time tell?

    If it turns out that Sweden has managed the smallest disruption to peoples' lives, while keeping the economy going, and not having massive excess deaths, then their approach will be vindicated.

    If it turns out that Sweden actually has a long-running issue, and an economy that stays in the shitter because there is a de facto lockdown as people don't go out, and the virus is not actually eliminated, then that approach will be seen as a failure.

    Right now, I'm seeing the second scenario being more likely than the first.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139

    HYUFD said:
    Consistent with a 10%+ poll shift (or a 5% swing as traditionally thought of) and Trump down to approx 72 ECVs...
    Consistent with Biden doing well in States he has no hope of winning.
    Montana - Over 50% would win it no matter how you look at it ;-)
    2016 Trump got 56% so surprising that Biden 9% ahead now - if he is.
    Trump is still 9% ahead in Montana
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Consistent with a 10%+ poll shift (or a 5% swing as traditionally thought of) and Trump down to approx 72 ECVs...
    Consistent with Biden doing well in States he has no hope of winning.
    Montana - Over 50% would win it no matter how you look at it ;-)
    2016 Trump got 56% so surprising that Biden 9% ahead now - if he is.
    Trump is still 9% ahead in Montana
    If Biden were 9% or even 0.009% ahead in Montana, we would be looking at the worst Republican defeat since at least 1936.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    Pulpstar said:

    houndtang said:

    I've had enough of this - how people are still buying this bollocks is beyond me. My father spent his last weeks of his life alone because of lockdown - given the choice I'm sure he'd have rather taken the risk and had the company. The story of covid is hysteria and moral panic on a global scale and the government has behaved disgracefully from the get go. Now they want to insist on us wearing masks. They can fuck right off. PS I voted Tory in December, this plus insipid reaction to BLM protests means I never will again.

    Masks are twattish bollocks.

    I will do by absolute best to wear one as little as possible and break the boundaries of the rules as much as I can.

    Placebo crap. Might as well fit a condom onto a cucumber and strap it onto your head.
    I don't understand your problem with masks.

    The scientific evidence is they work and the more they minimise R the less we need other actions to take the burden.

    I'd rather masks than alternative restrictions.
    I'm in favour of compulsory masks in shops, but I'm certainly not claiming the libertarian label. Are you still doing so ?
    I agree with Gove.

    I think masks should be worn and encouraged, but I don't think they should need to be made compulsory to do so. I think wearing a mask in these circumstances should be considered good manners, like saying please and thank you - I believe in good manners and try to follow them but I don't think they should need to be enforced by law.

    Furthermore while I think that a compulsory mask law would be illiberal, I think if the choice is between shutting down activity with a second lockdown or having the activity but with masks then the latter is the more liberal option.

    Finally I think if shops want to have 'masks must be worn' as their own policy then that is their free choice and is a liberal solution too. Just as if a premise wants to have a 'shirts must be worn' policy.
    Is the polite transmission of a deadly disease because you refuse to wear a mask, good manners?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    alex_ said:

    One thing you probably can say with reasonable certainty - a compulsory mask policy is going to be manna from heaven for shoplifters ;)

    CCTV and security guards can still see your clothes, hair colour, height etc
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,354
    rcs1000 said:

    BREAKING NEWS - an uninformed source from outside the inner circle of the Trump campaign says that, at the upcoming Republican National Convention in Jacksonville, the President will announce that Mike Pence is being replaced as VP running mate by . . . wait for it . . . Kanye West.

    I'm happy to offer you some quite good odds if you like.

    How about £20 at 5-to-1?

    You would win £100 if Trump replaces Pence with Kanye. (Can't say fairer than that.)
    Your generosity knows no bounds, Robert.

    What next - selling bridges at knock-down prices?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    stodge said:

    pm215 said:


    If he's right then he was pretty unlucky. But of course the point of mask wearing is not that it reduces the risk for an individual to zero, but less ambitiously that it reduces the probability of infection in some encounters across the whole population. If masks do that then they help reduce the R number, which means that, as a population, we can get away with a greater amount of riskier activities than we could otherwise, without tipping back into another widespread increase in cases.

    Yes, my brother lives in one of the hotspots down in Kent and he hasn't had a good run. The problem he has is he has never tested negative and he wonders if he will have this for a long time to come.

    My worry is we really still seem to know so little about the numbers who have had it (unreported) and those who are asymptomatic and that's the thing. You feel fine but you're infecting others and that's the tough part.

    Over 60,000 have died yet we still seem to struggle with some basic health and public health questions. The Freedom TO not wear a mask versus the Freedom FROM serious illness or death from a nasty virus - that's freedom for you.

    Figures doing round in Spain

    Infected person no mask, you wear mask 70% chance of infection
    Infected person mask, you no mask 5% chance of infection
    Both wear mask 1.5% chance of infection.

    No scientific reference but circulating widely by public authorities.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    HYUFD said:
    Consistent with a 10%+ poll shift (or a 5% swing as traditionally thought of) and Trump down to approx 72 ECVs...
    Consistent with Biden doing well in States he has no hope of winning.
    Personally think Biden (and Dem for Gov) closer than than in Big Sky Country, and also (though to lesser degree) in Show Me State.

    This November think MO will vote for Our Fearless Leader, but MT may (emphasis on conditional) go for Uncle Joe. But only if he really does NOT need it (like Obama winning IN in 2008).
    The best polls for Biden are in places he really doesn't need. Texas is classic. He's polling brilliantly there but if he takes it he's won by a landslide anyway. If he were doing as well in the true swing states or the rust belt, I'd pretty much want to call the contest now.

    As it is, it reminds me of one of those championship fights where the contender builds up a solid points lead over the first eight rounds but he can't put the defending champ away, and you just know the champ always has a puncher's chance.

    It's never over until it's over.
    Biden also doing pretty well in FL & PA to mention just two less politically-superfluous states. It is NOT as though he's making gains - and Trumpsky is taking hits - in Red states, but NOT in Purple ones.
    Isn’t a key to be doing well in swing states where the Republicans don’t control the electoral process?
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,138
    Mortimer said:


    My point is that if it isn't necessary in pubs, where people are in a stationary position in relatively close contact with others, drinking, how is it necessary for fleeting encounters, largely distanced, in shops?

    Think of it as a kind of "risk budget" -- say going down the pub has a risk of 4 (utterly arbitrary numbers for sake of example), and going down the local shop without a mask a risk of 2. Shopping maskless is safer than a pub trip, but if our overall risk budget is 5 then putting the mask on for the shopping trip (relatively minor sacrifice) means we can fit a pub trip in budget (greater overall benefit). The "budgeting" is really at the population level rather than individual (what do we allow, what do we continue to advise against), but this is the kind of thing the government must be thinking about.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,217

    HYUFD said:
    Consistent with a 10%+ poll shift (or a 5% swing as traditionally thought of) and Trump down to approx 72 ECVs...
    Consistent with Biden doing well in States he has no hope of winning.
    Personally think Biden (and Dem for Gov) closer than than in Big Sky Country, and also (though to lesser degree) in Show Me State.

    This November think MO will vote for Our Fearless Leader, but MT may (emphasis on conditional) go for Uncle Joe. But only if he really does NOT need it (like Obama winning IN in 2008).
    The best polls for Biden are in places he really doesn't need. Texas is classic. He's polling brilliantly there but if he takes it he's won by a landslide anyway. If he were doing as well in the true swing states or the rust belt, I'd pretty much want to call the contest now.

    As it is, it reminds me of one of those championship fights where the contender builds up a solid points lead over the first eight rounds but he can't put the defending champ away, and you just know the champ always has a puncher's chance.

    It's never over until it's over.
    Aren't the polls all pretty consistent (irrespective of state) with the polls moving about five points in Biden's favour since 2016?

    Now, sure, there are places where he does better than that (like Iowa, where Trump's tariffs have hit hard), and places where he does worse, but it seems that one should probably just simply go with the view that a 3% or more national lead will result in a Biden Presidency, and a 1% or less would result in a Trump one.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139

    Bummed today that Polish electoral commission says, with 99.99% of vote counted in 2020 presidential runoff election, incumbent Andrzej Duda winner at 51.03% over challenger Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski. Though legal challenges to irregularities are likely, Mayor T has conceded to the Dud.

    Link below features map of results by county, showing clear east versus west (actually more north-east v south-west) divide; note that Warsaw, Krakow, Gdasnk, Łódź, Poznań, Wrocław, other cities voted for Mayor T thus the orange enclaves surrounded by blue.

    As for rural areas, with few exceptions (such as Poznań & vicinity also county on eastern border with sizeable Belarus minority) only ones to support opposition were in areas that were part of German Reich in 1939

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Polish_presidential_election

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1282745041593806855?s=20
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,354

    HYUFD said:
    Consistent with a 10%+ poll shift (or a 5% swing as traditionally thought of) and Trump down to approx 72 ECVs...
    Consistent with Biden doing well in States he has no hope of winning.
    Personally think Biden (and Dem for Gov) closer than than in Big Sky Country, and also (though to lesser degree) in Show Me State.

    This November think MO will vote for Our Fearless Leader, but MT may (emphasis on conditional) go for Uncle Joe. But only if he really does NOT need it (like Obama winning IN in 2008).
    The best polls for Biden are in places he really doesn't need. Texas is classic. He's polling brilliantly there but if he takes it he's won by a landslide anyway. If he were doing as well in the true swing states or the rust belt, I'd pretty much want to call the contest now.

    As it is, it reminds me of one of those championship fights where the contender builds up a solid points lead over the first eight rounds but he can't put the defending champ away, and you just know the champ always has a puncher's chance.

    It's never over until it's over.
    Biden also doing pretty well in FL & PA to mention just two less politically-superfluous states. It is NOT as though he's making gains - and Trumpsky is taking hits - in Red states, but NOT in Purple ones.
    Sure but to labour my analogy a bit further, I see the defending champion shipping plenty of punishment but he's not on the deck yet, and he certainly hasn't been counted out.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    edited July 2020
    rcs1000 said:

    houndtang said:

    I've had enough of this - how people are still buying this bollocks is beyond me. My father spent his last weeks of his life alone because of lockdown - given the choice I'm sure he'd have rather taken the risk and had the company. The story of covid is hysteria and moral panic on a global scale and the government has behaved disgracefully from the get go. Now they want to insist on us wearing masks. They can fuck right off. PS I voted Tory in December, this plus insipid reaction to BLM protests means I never will again.

    Well, won't time tell?

    If it turns out that Sweden has managed the smallest disruption to peoples' lives, while keeping the economy going, and not having massive excess deaths, then their approach will be vindicated.

    If it turns out that Sweden actually has a long-running issue, and an economy that stays in the shitter because there is a de facto lockdown as people don't go out, and the virus is not actually eliminated, then that approach will be seen as a failure.

    Right now, I'm seeing the second scenario being more likely than the first.
    Yes, and this was an ominous report from Kings College this morning:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/12/immunity-to-covid-19-could-be-lost-in-months-uk-study-suggests
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    edited July 2020
    Jeremy Hunt's constituency newsletter (I am an avid reader - it's a good read, with witty asides) predicts that masks in shops eill be compulsory within the next few days.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    houndtang said:

    I've had enough of this - how people are still buying this bollocks is beyond me. My father spent his last weeks of his life alone because of lockdown - given the choice I'm sure he'd have rather taken the risk and had the company. The story of covid is hysteria and moral panic on a global scale and the government has behaved disgracefully from the get go. Now they want to insist on us wearing masks. They can fuck right off. PS I voted Tory in December, this plus insipid reaction to BLM protests means I never will again.

    Masks are twattish bollocks.

    I will do by absolute best to wear one as little as possible and break the boundaries of the rules as much as I can.

    Placebo crap. Might as well fit a condom onto a cucumber and strap it onto your head.
    I don't understand your problem with masks.

    The scientific evidence is they work and the more they minimise R the less we need other actions to take the burden.

    I'd rather masks than alternative restrictions.
    I'm in favour of compulsory masks in shops, but I'm certainly not claiming the libertarian label. Are you still doing so ?
    I agree with Gove.

    I think masks should be worn and encouraged, but I don't think they should need to be made compulsory to do so. I think wearing a mask in these circumstances should be considered good manners, like saying please and thank you - I believe in good manners and try to follow them but I don't think they should need to be enforced by law.

    Furthermore while I think that a compulsory mask law would be illiberal, I think if the choice is between shutting down activity with a second lockdown or having the activity but with masks then the latter is the more liberal option.

    Finally I think if shops want to have 'masks must be worn' as their own policy then that is their free choice and is a liberal solution too. Just as if a premise wants to have a 'shirts must be worn' policy.
    Is the polite transmission of a deadly disease because you refuse to wear a mask, good manners?
    If I cough before this pandemic either put my hands to my mouth or coughed into my elbow if I couldn't do that. Coughing without doing so is very, very bad manners - but its not criminal.

    Refusing to wear a mask when you are capable of doing so should be as socially ostracised and socially unacceptable as in normal times pre-COVID walking around coughing without bothering to cover your mouth would be.

    But I don't see why the government need get involved.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,599
    houndtang said:

    I've had enough of this - how people are still buying this bollocks is beyond me. My father spent his last weeks of his life alone because of lockdown - given the choice I'm sure he'd have rather taken the risk and had the company. The story of covid is hysteria and moral panic on a global scale and the government has behaved disgracefully from the get go. Now they want to insist on us wearing masks. They can fuck right off. PS I voted Tory in December, this plus insipid reaction to BLM protests means I never will again.

    +1
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    edited July 2020
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Consistent with a 10%+ poll shift (or a 5% swing as traditionally thought of) and Trump down to approx 72 ECVs...
    Consistent with Biden doing well in States he has no hope of winning.
    Montana - Over 50% would win it no matter how you look at it ;-)
    2016 Trump got 56% so surprising that Biden 9% ahead now - if he is.
    Trump is still 9% ahead in Montana
    If Biden were 9% or even 0.009% ahead in Montana, we would be looking at the worst Republican defeat since at least 1936.
    Bill Clinton won Montana in 1992, as did LBJ in 1964 and Truman in 1948
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Songs of the (Potential) Battle Ground States

    MEET ME IN MONTANA
    Paul Davis (but made a hit by Marie Osmond)

    Wrote my whole life down in an old book
    Songs about you and me
    Been singing to every soul in Tennessee
    Nobody seems to listen
    No one ever smiles the way that you do
    So I guess you never hear me on the radio
    And I'd give up this crazy dream of mine to hold you once more

    Won't you meet me in Montana?
    I want to see the mountains in your eyes
    I had all of this life I can handle
    Meet me underneath that big Montana sky

    I left home for Hollywood
    Lookin' for a part to play
    Well you always said I had such a pretty face.
    But, I guess I'm not that pretty
    'Cause no one looks at me the way you do
    Well you'll always be a movie star to me
    Darlin' now I guess it's time that I let go of that dream

    Won't you meet me in Montana?
    I want to see the mountains your eyes
    I've had all of this life I can handle
    Meet me underneath that big Montana sky

    Well were stuck here in these hills that they call mountains
    Darlin' back home in your arms is right where I want to be

    Won't you meet me in Montana
    I want to see the mountains your eyes.
    I've had all of this life I can handle
    Meet me underneath that big Montana sky
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Consistent with a 10%+ poll shift (or a 5% swing as traditionally thought of) and Trump down to approx 72 ECVs...
    Consistent with Biden doing well in States he has no hope of winning.
    Montana - Over 50% would win it no matter how you look at it ;-)
    2016 Trump got 56% so surprising that Biden 9% ahead now - if he is.
    Trump is still 9% ahead in Montana
    If Biden were 9% or even 0.009% ahead in Montana, we would be looking at the worst Republican defeat since at least 1936.
    Bill Clinton won Montana in 1992
    Remind me again who won Mansfield and Bassetlaw in 1992?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,217
    On the subject of Montana, people should know that Mayor of the State Capital (Helena) is a former refugee.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Scott_xP said:
    Unlike other pollsters Survation surveys are UK - rather than GB - based. The GB equivalent here would be Con 43% Lab 37%.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    HYUFD said:
    Consistent with a 10%+ poll shift (or a 5% swing as traditionally thought of) and Trump down to approx 72 ECVs...
    Consistent with Biden doing well in States he has no hope of winning.
    Personally think Biden (and Dem for Gov) closer than than in Big Sky Country, and also (though to lesser degree) in Show Me State.

    This November think MO will vote for Our Fearless Leader, but MT may (emphasis on conditional) go for Uncle Joe. But only if he really does NOT need it (like Obama winning IN in 2008).
    The best polls for Biden are in places he really doesn't need. Texas is classic. He's polling brilliantly there but if he takes it he's won by a landslide anyway. If he were doing as well in the true swing states or the rust belt, I'd pretty much want to call the contest now.

    As it is, it reminds me of one of those championship fights where the contender builds up a solid points lead over the first eight rounds but he can't put the defending champ away, and you just know the champ always has a puncher's chance.

    It's never over until it's over.
    Biden also doing pretty well in FL & PA to mention just two less politically-superfluous states. It is NOT as though he's making gains - and Trumpsky is taking hits - in Red states, but NOT in Purple ones.
    Sure but to labour my analogy a bit further, I see the defending champion shipping plenty of punishment but he's not on the deck yet, and he certainly hasn't been counted out.
    He's defending champion same way that Hoover was in 1932. And the French Army in 1940.

    Punch drunk and clinging to the same old game plane.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    HYUFD said:
    Consistent with a 10%+ poll shift (or a 5% swing as traditionally thought of) and Trump down to approx 72 ECVs...
    Consistent with Biden doing well in States he has no hope of winning.
    Personally think Biden (and Dem for Gov) closer than than in Big Sky Country, and also (though to lesser degree) in Show Me State.

    This November think MO will vote for Our Fearless Leader, but MT may (emphasis on conditional) go for Uncle Joe. But only if he really does NOT need it (like Obama winning IN in 2008).
    The best polls for Biden are in places he really doesn't need. Texas is classic. He's polling brilliantly there but if he takes it he's won by a landslide anyway. If he were doing as well in the true swing states or the rust belt, I'd pretty much want to call the contest now.

    As it is, it reminds me of one of those championship fights where the contender builds up a solid points lead over the first eight rounds but he can't put the defending champ away, and you just know the champ always has a puncher's chance.

    It's never over until it's over.
    Biden also doing pretty well in FL & PA to mention just two less politically-superfluous states. It is NOT as though he's making gains - and Trumpsky is taking hits - in Red states, but NOT in Purple ones.
    Sure but to labour my analogy a bit further, I see the defending champion shipping plenty of punishment but he's not on the deck yet, and he certainly hasn't been counted out.
    He's defending champion same way that Hoover was in 1932. And the French Army in 1940.

    Punch drunk and clinging to the same old game plane.
    Plan
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    If that Kings college study turns out to be true then herd immunity is going to be impossible to achieve.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    Andy_JS said:

    Does anyone think there's a mismatch in the Betfair odds when you compare Trump's chances of winning the election and winning the popular vote? 2.8 for winning the election and 8 for winning the popular vote. Seems like too much of a gap.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128151441
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.170211116

    Yes - it's unusual to win one without the other. The betting markets are spooked by last time. 8 seems a reasonable long shot, given that it's 4 months to go - maybe Trump will be thought to win the debates, foir instance.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Any evidence of facial coverings causing more facial and/or respiratory irritation and leading to more coughing and spluttering? Just to chuck that out there to be shot down...

    By the way, reports I am getting anecdotally is that mask compliance (and certainly “proper” mask compliance ie. Permanent covering of mouth and nose etc is falling quite rapidly in London public transport. Whether this is just increasingly down to people’s perception of relative risk in London, or just very little evidence of much in the way of enforcement I don’t know.

    And it seems to me that moving towards mandatory face coverings in shops is going to face a big problem of who is expected to ensure compliance. It is quite clear that unions and shopkeepers are strongly resisting any suggestion that it should be their responsibility (and with good reason). Is the Govt going to want to declare face coverings mandatory only to have the media running about here there and everywhere finding examples of it being flaunted with impunity? On the other hand, maybe that is the best compromise!
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,354
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Consistent with a 10%+ poll shift (or a 5% swing as traditionally thought of) and Trump down to approx 72 ECVs...
    Consistent with Biden doing well in States he has no hope of winning.
    Personally think Biden (and Dem for Gov) closer than than in Big Sky Country, and also (though to lesser degree) in Show Me State.

    This November think MO will vote for Our Fearless Leader, but MT may (emphasis on conditional) go for Uncle Joe. But only if he really does NOT need it (like Obama winning IN in 2008).
    The best polls for Biden are in places he really doesn't need. Texas is classic. He's polling brilliantly there but if he takes it he's won by a landslide anyway. If he were doing as well in the true swing states or the rust belt, I'd pretty much want to call the contest now.

    As it is, it reminds me of one of those championship fights where the contender builds up a solid points lead over the first eight rounds but he can't put the defending champ away, and you just know the champ always has a puncher's chance.

    It's never over until it's over.
    Aren't the polls all pretty consistent (irrespective of state) with the polls moving about five points in Biden's favour since 2016?

    Now, sure, there are places where he does better than that (like Iowa, where Trump's tariffs have hit hard), and places where he does worse, but it seems that one should probably just simply go with the view that a 3% or more national lead will result in a Biden Presidency, and a 1% or less would result in a Trump one.
    Is it as much as that?

    Clinton won the popular vote by 2%. Biden's about 9% up now so a net 7% (3.5 swing). He's worthy favorite but it's by no means over.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    edited July 2020

    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    houndtang said:

    I've had enough of this - how people are still buying this bollocks is beyond me. My father spent his last weeks of his life alone because of lockdown - given the choice I'm sure he'd have rather taken the risk and had the company. The story of covid is hysteria and moral panic on a global scale and the government has behaved disgracefully from the get go. Now they want to insist on us wearing masks. They can fuck right off. PS I voted Tory in December, this plus insipid reaction to BLM protests means I never will again.

    Masks are twattish bollocks.

    I will do by absolute best to wear one as little as possible and break the boundaries of the rules as much as I can.

    Placebo crap. Might as well fit a condom onto a cucumber and strap it onto your head.
    I don't understand your problem with masks.

    The scientific evidence is they work and the more they minimise R the less we need other actions to take the burden.

    I'd rather masks than alternative restrictions.
    I'm in favour of compulsory masks in shops, but I'm certainly not claiming the libertarian label. Are you still doing so ?
    I agree with Gove.

    I think masks should be worn and encouraged, but I don't think they should need to be made compulsory to do so. I think wearing a mask in these circumstances should be considered good manners, like saying please and thank you - I believe in good manners and try to follow them but I don't think they should need to be enforced by law.

    Furthermore while I think that a compulsory mask law would be illiberal, I think if the choice is between shutting down activity with a second lockdown or having the activity but with masks then the latter is the more liberal option.

    Finally I think if shops want to have 'masks must be worn' as their own policy then that is their free choice and is a liberal solution too. Just as if a premise wants to have a 'shirts must be worn' policy.
    Is the polite transmission of a deadly disease because you refuse to wear a mask, good manners?
    If I cough before this pandemic either put my hands to my mouth or coughed into my elbow if I couldn't do that. Coughing without doing so is very, very bad manners - but its not criminal.

    Refusing to wear a mask when you are capable of doing so should be as socially ostracised and socially unacceptable as in normal times pre-COVID walking around coughing without bothering to cover your mouth would be.

    But I don't see why the government need get involved.
    As the evidence as set out earlier by Nichomar showed is if infected people even without symptoms do not wear masks there is a 70% chance of them spreading it, if they do wear masks just a 5% chance.

    We locked down to stop the spread of Covid, not to stop people just getting a cough
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,885
    edited July 2020

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Electoral Calculus seat projection:
    Conservative Party: 333 (-32)
    Labour Party: 229 (+27)
    SNP: 53 (+5)
    Liberal Democrat: 11 (-)
    Plaid Cymru: 4 (-)
    Green Party: 1 (-)
    Speaker: 1 (-)

    2015 redux

    Tory majority of 69 without Scottish seats from the SNP (even including the 18 NI seats), Tory majority of just 16 with Scottish seats from the SNP, shows how much Starmer needs Scotland to become PM
    No, he doesn't. It shows how much the TORIES need England (and some of Wales and their NI allies) to win. The SNP are never going to vote for a Tory PM, are they?

    England's always going to be there though, its the Scottish MPs at Westminster that are more of an issue.

    And SNP MPs are no substitute for Labour MPs. Remember the SNP abstain on English-only matters so the complete Horlicks of a situation would be one with a Labour MP backed by SNP MPs - but a Tory majority if SNP abstain. English only laws would have a Tory veto on them. Plus the SNP would demand an independence referendum but if they win that then it means a Tory majority government in Westminster again.

    What a mess that would be!
    Indeed. I was being perhaps a bit disingenuous in not admitting that possibility, and you are right to pick me up on that.

    But on the other hand the English would get what they voted for (with the important effect of UK wide matters such as budget etc under the Barnett exception).

    In any case, would SLAB MPs for Scottish seats now not be unable to vote on English matters thanks to the changes Mr Cameron brought in? They've (the regulations for EVEL) have not been much in public debate of late but the SNP self-denyong ordinance rather negates the need anyway.

    And, now I think about it, it is only a mess from a Labour point of view. Not, arguably, a SNP or Tory one. And perhaps closer to a majority public view, even.
    The English wouldn't get what they voted for.

    In that scenario even though the English voted majority Tory then matters that are considered "devolved" would be decided by a Labour government. It'd be like the First Minister of Scotland being a Tory because England voted Tory.
    But the Labour administration couldn't deploy its Scottish MPs in (as I assume you mean) retained domestic business kept in England. It could certainly control business in Pmt. But any progress would as you say earlier be dependent on the Tories in Westminster Pmt. Or am I missing something?
    But that's the point, it'd be an absurd mess.

    For devolved matters like Health and Education we'd have a Labour Secretary of State in a Labour executive that requires Tory MPs to pass its legislation.

    It would be like a majority of Scottish MSPs being SNP but the Scottish Government being Tory, with a Tory Scottish Cabinet Secretary for Health and Sport and a Tory Scottish Cabinet Secretary for Education and Skills . . . but all justified as it would take the SNP majority of MSPs to pass legislation the Tory executive wanted to pass.
    Duly noted, thank you.

    And yet that ( a minority government, though not Tory-led) was the (quite deliberately contrived) situation for most of Holyrood's life, thanks to its Labour creators and LD allies. Goose, gander ...

    But perhaps perceptions of minority governments differ according to experience.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    pm215 said:

    Mortimer said:


    My point is that if it isn't necessary in pubs, where people are in a stationary position in relatively close contact with others, drinking, how is it necessary for fleeting encounters, largely distanced, in shops?

    Think of it as a kind of "risk budget" -- say going down the pub has a risk of 4 (utterly arbitrary numbers for sake of example), and going down the local shop without a mask a risk of 2. Shopping maskless is safer than a pub trip, but if our overall risk budget is 5 then putting the mask on for the shopping trip (relatively minor sacrifice) means we can fit a pub trip in budget (greater overall benefit). The "budgeting" is really at the population level rather than individual (what do we allow, what do we continue to advise against), but this is the kind of thing the government must be thinking about.
    There's something in that. Reopening schools should be given a fair amount of the budget, for example. Another possibility is that the powers that be think we need to get in the habit ahead of the autumn and winter when pubs might be made to shut again and masks in shops could make a big difference.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,217
    Foxy said:



    rcs1000 said:

    houndtang said:

    I've had enough of this - how people are still buying this bollocks is beyond me. My father spent his last weeks of his life alone because of lockdown - given the choice I'm sure he'd have rather taken the risk and had the company. The story of covid is hysteria and moral panic on a global scale and the government has behaved disgracefully from the get go. Now they want to insist on us wearing masks. They can fuck right off. PS I voted Tory in December, this plus insipid reaction to BLM protests means I never will again.

    Well, won't time tell?

    If it turns out that Sweden has managed the smallest disruption to peoples' lives, while keeping the economy going, and not having massive excess deaths, then their approach will be vindicated.

    If it turns out that Sweden actually has a long-running issue, and an economy that stays in the shitter because there is a de facto lockdown as people don't go out, and the virus is not actually eliminated, then that approach will be seen as a failure.

    Right now, I'm seeing the second scenario being more likely than the first.
    Yes, and this was an ominous report from Kings College this morning:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/12/immunity-to-covid-19-could-be-lost-in-months-uk-study-suggests
    I'm pretty sceptical that this is a big issue. Firstly, the immune system is not all about antibodies. Secondly, you don't necessarily need to have that many antibodies to mount a robust defence.

    If we start to see widespread evidence of people getting re-infections (which we're not), and those re-infections are as severe as the initial infection (which I'd be extremely surprised by), then we should worry.

    Otherwise, we may simply be measuring the fact that the body generated a great many more antibodies in the initial aftermath of infection. (Which, by the way, is consistent with the problems people have with cytokine storms in the aftermath of a CV-19 infection.)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,217
    edited July 2020
    MaxPB said:

    If that Kings college study turns out to be true then herd immunity is going to be impossible to achieve.

    That's not necessarily true.

    The t-cell response is also very important - see https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/t-cells-found-covid-19-patients-bode-well-long-term-immunity
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Consistent with a 10%+ poll shift (or a 5% swing as traditionally thought of) and Trump down to approx 72 ECVs...
    Consistent with Biden doing well in States he has no hope of winning.
    Personally think Biden (and Dem for Gov) closer than than in Big Sky Country, and also (though to lesser degree) in Show Me State.

    This November think MO will vote for Our Fearless Leader, but MT may (emphasis on conditional) go for Uncle Joe. But only if he really does NOT need it (like Obama winning IN in 2008).
    The best polls for Biden are in places he really doesn't need. Texas is classic. He's polling brilliantly there but if he takes it he's won by a landslide anyway. If he were doing as well in the true swing states or the rust belt, I'd pretty much want to call the contest now.

    As it is, it reminds me of one of those championship fights where the contender builds up a solid points lead over the first eight rounds but he can't put the defending champ away, and you just know the champ always has a puncher's chance.

    It's never over until it's over.
    Aren't the polls all pretty consistent (irrespective of state) with the polls moving about five points in Biden's favour since 2016?

    Now, sure, there are places where he does better than that (like Iowa, where Trump's tariffs have hit hard), and places where he does worse, but it seems that one should probably just simply go with the view that a 3% or more national lead will result in a Biden Presidency, and a 1% or less would result in a Trump one.
    Is it as much as that?

    Clinton won the popular vote by 2%. Biden's about 9% up now so a net 7% (3.5 swing). He's worthy favorite but it's by no means over.
    Trump is ahead by 9% in Montana, Clinton won it by 2% in 1992
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,898
    rcs1000 said:


    Aren't the polls all pretty consistent (irrespective of state) with the polls moving about five points in Biden's favour since 2016?

    Now, sure, there are places where he does better than that (like Iowa, where Trump's tariffs have hit hard), and places where he does worse, but it seems that one should probably just simply go with the view that a 3% or more national lead will result in a Biden Presidency, and a 1% or less would result in a Trump one.

    Yes, about a 5% swing to the Democrats. In 2016, Trump won 56-36 and in 2012 Romney won 55-41. Obama got within 2.5 points of taking the State in 2008 but that didn't stop him winning a convincing victory.

    I suspect Montana and its huge number of ECV isn't high on the Democrat agenda for the Presidential election but it's always good to force your opponent into his or her territory.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Consistent with a 10%+ poll shift (or a 5% swing as traditionally thought of) and Trump down to approx 72 ECVs...
    Consistent with Biden doing well in States he has no hope of winning.
    Personally think Biden (and Dem for Gov) closer than than in Big Sky Country, and also (though to lesser degree) in Show Me State.

    This November think MO will vote for Our Fearless Leader, but MT may (emphasis on conditional) go for Uncle Joe. But only if he really does NOT need it (like Obama winning IN in 2008).
    The best polls for Biden are in places he really doesn't need. Texas is classic. He's polling brilliantly there but if he takes it he's won by a landslide anyway. If he were doing as well in the true swing states or the rust belt, I'd pretty much want to call the contest now.

    As it is, it reminds me of one of those championship fights where the contender builds up a solid points lead over the first eight rounds but he can't put the defending champ away, and you just know the champ always has a puncher's chance.

    It's never over until it's over.
    Aren't the polls all pretty consistent (irrespective of state) with the polls moving about five points in Biden's favour since 2016?

    Now, sure, there are places where he does better than that (like Iowa, where Trump's tariffs have hit hard), and places where he does worse, but it seems that one should probably just simply go with the view that a 3% or more national lead will result in a Biden Presidency, and a 1% or less would result in a Trump one.
    Is it as much as that?

    Clinton won the popular vote by 2%. Biden's about 9% up now so a net 7% (3.5 swing). He's worthy favorite but it's by no means over.
    Trump is ahead by 9% in Montana, Clinton won it by 2% in 1992
    Who would Ross Perot be this time around?
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,707
    I wonder at what point it'll move on to encouraging, then recommending, then mandating them outside, too. And it'll be "because there's less risk, but there's still a risk".
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Electoral Calculus seat projection:
    Conservative Party: 333 (-32)
    Labour Party: 229 (+27)
    SNP: 53 (+5)
    Liberal Democrat: 11 (-)
    Plaid Cymru: 4 (-)
    Green Party: 1 (-)
    Speaker: 1 (-)

    2015 redux

    Tory majority of 69 without Scottish seats from the SNP (even including the 18 NI seats), Tory majority of just 16 with Scottish seats from the SNP, shows how much Starmer needs Scotland to become PM
    No, he doesn't. It shows how much the TORIES need England (and some of Wales and their NI allies) to win. The SNP are never going to vote for a Tory PM, are they?

    England's always going to be there though, its the Scottish MPs at Westminster that are more of an issue.

    And SNP MPs are no substitute for Labour MPs. Remember the SNP abstain on English-only matters so the complete Horlicks of a situation would be one with a Labour MP backed by SNP MPs - but a Tory majority if SNP abstain. English only laws would have a Tory veto on them. Plus the SNP would demand an independence referendum but if they win that then it means a Tory majority government in Westminster again.

    What a mess that would be!
    Indeed. I was being perhaps a bit disingenuous in not admitting that possibility, and you are right to pick me up on that.

    But on the other hand the English would get what they voted for (with the important effect of UK wide matters such as budget etc under the Barnett exception).

    In any case, would SLAB MPs for Scottish seats now not be unable to vote on English matters thanks to the changes Mr Cameron brought in? They've (the regulations for EVEL) have not been much in public debate of late but the SNP self-denyong ordinance rather negates the need anyway.

    And, now I think about it, it is only a mess from a Labour point of view. Not, arguably, a SNP or Tory one. And perhaps closer to a majority public view, even.
    The English wouldn't get what they voted for.

    In that scenario even though the English voted majority Tory then matters that are considered "devolved" would be decided by a Labour government. It'd be like the First Minister of Scotland being a Tory because England voted Tory.
    But the Labour administration couldn't deploy its Scottish MPs in (as I assume you mean) retained domestic business kept in England. It could certainly control business in Pmt. But any progress would as you say earlier be dependent on the Tories in Westminster Pmt. Or am I missing something?
    But that's the point, it'd be an absurd mess.

    For devolved matters like Health and Education we'd have a Labour Secretary of State in a Labour executive that requires Tory MPs to pass its legislation.

    It would be like a majority of Scottish MSPs being SNP but the Scottish Government being Tory, with a Tory Scottish Cabinet Secretary for Health and Sport and a Tory Scottish Cabinet Secretary for Education and Skills . . . but all justified as it would take the SNP majority of MSPs to pass legislation the Tory executive wanted to pass.
    Duly noted, thank you.

    And yet that ( a minority government, though not Tory-led) was the (quite deliberately contrived) situation for most of Holyrood's life, thanks to its Labour creators and LD allies. Goose, gander ...

    But perhaps perceptions of minority governments differ according to experience.
    I'm not talking a minority situation though.

    Since they're devolved the Secretary of State for Health is responsible for England's health and the Secretary of State for Education is responsible for England's education but I'm talking about a situation where the Tories have an English majority - but Labour rule is put in place in England because the SNP controls Scotland.

    Its utterly illogical. Its not a minority issue, I'm saying its like the SNP having a majority of Scottish seats but the Scottish administration was Tory instead. That's the scenario I'm talking about.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    alex_ said:

    And it seems to me that moving towards mandatory face coverings in shops is going to face a big problem of who is expected to ensure compliance. It is quite clear that unions and shopkeepers are strongly resisting any suggestion that it should be their responsibility (and with good reason). Is the Govt going to want to declare face coverings mandatory only to have the media running about here there and everywhere finding examples of it being flaunted with impunity? On the other hand, maybe that is the best compromise!

    Enforcement is a huge issue. My experience from going on my first post-Covid train trip on Saturday suggests that a significant minority of the passengers don't use their masks properly or don't bother to travel with one at all, that the railway staff make no attempt to enforce the regulations, and, indeed, that a similarly large minority of the railways staff also fail to wear masks or to use them properly.

    Hardly anyone is travelling on the trains, so you can multiply that problem by a hundred or a thousand when it comes to retail.

    From a personal point of view, I'm not terribly fond of masks but I can put up with them in the shops. My concern, however, is that this will quickly escalate out of control and attempts will be made to force people to use the blessed things everywhere. Needing them for the supermarket is one thing; having an extremely low risk countryside walk ruined by having to breathe through a bedsheet the whole time is something else entirely.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    If that Kings college study turns out to be true then herd immunity is going to be impossible to achieve.

    That's not necessarily true.

    The t-cell response is also very important - see https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/t-cells-found-covid-19-patients-bode-well-long-term-immunity
    Isn't the issue that t-cell immunity may not be obtained by asymptomatic patients.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    I learned over the week-end that an astonishing 40% plus of the human genome is made up of incorporated virus DNA (Dr John Lee in the Speccie).

    If this is true it would be surely be remarkable if a large portion of the population did not already have some sort of inbuilt immunity to Corona, the latest in a very, very long line of viruses that have stretched back into the mists of time.

    It also surely follows that the level of immunity would vary from genome to genome, based on the DNA of one's ancestors, and it is this and not discrimination that means some communities have suffered more than others.

  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    rcs1000 said:

    On the subject of Montana, people should know that Mayor of the State Capital (Helena) is a former refugee.

    Mayor is also Black in state with only 5k African Americans or thereabouts.

    BTW, turnout out that Helena elected a Black man, a barber, as unofficial mayor in 1873 before the city was formally incorporated; in 1876 same guy was a delegate to Republican National Convention AND GOP candidate for territorial delegate to Congress.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    Joe, we are all very much hoping that come January he can spend all his time playing golf and doesn’t need to listen to experts like Dr Fauci.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798

    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    houndtang said:

    I've had enough of this - how people are still buying this bollocks is beyond me. My father spent his last weeks of his life alone because of lockdown - given the choice I'm sure he'd have rather taken the risk and had the company. The story of covid is hysteria and moral panic on a global scale and the government has behaved disgracefully from the get go. Now they want to insist on us wearing masks. They can fuck right off. PS I voted Tory in December, this plus insipid reaction to BLM protests means I never will again.

    Masks are twattish bollocks.

    I will do by absolute best to wear one as little as possible and break the boundaries of the rules as much as I can.

    Placebo crap. Might as well fit a condom onto a cucumber and strap it onto your head.
    I don't understand your problem with masks.

    The scientific evidence is they work and the more they minimise R the less we need other actions to take the burden.

    I'd rather masks than alternative restrictions.
    I'm in favour of compulsory masks in shops, but I'm certainly not claiming the libertarian label. Are you still doing so ?
    I agree with Gove.

    I think masks should be worn and encouraged, but I don't think they should need to be made compulsory to do so. I think wearing a mask in these circumstances should be considered good manners, like saying please and thank you - I believe in good manners and try to follow them but I don't think they should need to be enforced by law.

    Furthermore while I think that a compulsory mask law would be illiberal, I think if the choice is between shutting down activity with a second lockdown or having the activity but with masks then the latter is the more liberal option.

    Finally I think if shops want to have 'masks must be worn' as their own policy then that is their free choice and is a liberal solution too. Just as if a premise wants to have a 'shirts must be worn' policy.
    Is the polite transmission of a deadly disease because you refuse to wear a mask, good manners?
    If I cough before this pandemic either put my hands to my mouth or coughed into my elbow if I couldn't do that. Coughing without doing so is very, very bad manners - but its not criminal.

    Refusing to wear a mask when you are capable of doing so should be as socially ostracised and socially unacceptable as in normal times pre-COVID walking around coughing without bothering to cover your mouth would be.

    But I don't see why the government need get involved.
    Because not wearing a mask endangers other people and one of the primary goals of government should be to protect us from being harmed by other people. What is the alternative? Do I enforce mouth covering myself by threatening violence against non mask wearers? Do I sue anybody who gives me Covid by not wearing a mask? If everyone behaved reasonably we wouldn't need any laws at all. But they don't, so we need them.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620

    Jeremy Hunt's constituency newsletter (I am an avid reader - it's a good read, with witty asides) predicts that masks in shops eill be compulsory within the next few days.

    And does Hunt have views on whether masks should be worn in pubs and restaurants ?

    Less than 10% wear them in the supermarkets I've been to.

    So that's a lot of people who might get annoyed - not a vote winner.

    And if wearing masks are necessary now then the government is admitting it fucked up massively by neither encouraging them four months ago nor ensuring their supply - again not a vote winner.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,217

    I learned over the week-end that an astonishing 40% plus of the human genome is made up of incorporated virus DNA (Dr John Lee in the Speccie).

    If this is true it would be surely be remarkable if a large portion of the population did not already have some sort of inbuilt immunity to Corona, the latest in a very, very long line of viruses that have stretched back into the mists of time.

    It also surely follows that the level of immunity would vary from genome to genome, based on the DNA of one's ancestors, and it is this and not discrimination that means some communities have suffered more than others.

    One person with CV-19 infected 87% of his fellow choir members.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    If that Kings college study turns out to be true then herd immunity is going to be impossible to achieve.

    That's not necessarily true.

    The t-cell response is also very important - see https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/t-cells-found-covid-19-patients-bode-well-long-term-immunity
    Isn't the issue that t-cell immunity may not be obtained by asymptomatic patients.
    Immunity is surely defined by 'lack of symptoms?' Some rats are 'immune' to certain rat poisons. The poison enters their systems but it doesn;t kill themvor make them sick
  • So we're at the point where if the EHRC declare Labour is not institutionally anti-Semitic, it will still be because some PB Tories say it is.

    Okay then, I will adhere to what the EHRC says, they know what they're talking about. If they declare Labour not institutionally anti-Semitic, they aren't.

    Labour literally cannot win, of course not a surprise from bad faith actors on this site.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139

    Jeremy Hunt's constituency newsletter (I am an avid reader - it's a good read, with witty asides) predicts that masks in shops eill be compulsory within the next few days.

    And does Hunt have views on whether masks should be worn in pubs and restaurants ?

    Less than 10% wear them in the supermarkets I've been to.

    So that's a lot of people who might get annoyed - not a vote winner.

    And if wearing masks are necessary now then the government is admitting it fucked up massively by neither encouraging them four months ago nor ensuring their supply - again not a vote winner.
    60% of voters now want masks to be compulsory for shoppers, including 57% of Tory voters

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1282713273817866242?s=20
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    If that Kings college study turns out to be true then herd immunity is going to be impossible to achieve.

    That's not necessarily true.

    The t-cell response is also very important - see https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/t-cells-found-covid-19-patients-bode-well-long-term-immunity
    Isn't the issue that t-cell immunity may not be obtained by asymptomatic patients.
    Immunity is surely defined by 'lack of symptoms?' Some rats are 'immune' to certain rat poisons. The poison enters their systems but it doesn;t kill themvor make them sick
    I don't think you can be a carrier if you are immune.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620
    HYUFD said:

    Jeremy Hunt's constituency newsletter (I am an avid reader - it's a good read, with witty asides) predicts that masks in shops eill be compulsory within the next few days.

    And does Hunt have views on whether masks should be worn in pubs and restaurants ?

    Less than 10% wear them in the supermarkets I've been to.

    So that's a lot of people who might get annoyed - not a vote winner.

    And if wearing masks are necessary now then the government is admitting it fucked up massively by neither encouraging them four months ago nor ensuring their supply - again not a vote winner.
    60% of voters now want masks to be compulsory for shoppers, including 57% of Tory voters

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1282713273817866242?s=20
    And less than 10% wear them.

    So your poll is bollox.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    HYUFD said:

    Jeremy Hunt's constituency newsletter (I am an avid reader - it's a good read, with witty asides) predicts that masks in shops eill be compulsory within the next few days.

    And does Hunt have views on whether masks should be worn in pubs and restaurants ?

    Less than 10% wear them in the supermarkets I've been to.

    So that's a lot of people who might get annoyed - not a vote winner.

    And if wearing masks are necessary now then the government is admitting it fucked up massively by neither encouraging them four months ago nor ensuring their supply - again not a vote winner.
    60% of voters now want masks to be compulsory for shoppers, including 57% of Tory voters

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1282713273817866242?s=20
    And less than 10% wear them.

    So your poll is bollox.
    I thought the fraction was higher than that now, approaching a third or so?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205

    I wonder at what point it'll move on to encouraging, then recommending, then mandating them outside, too. And it'll be "because there's less risk, but there's still a risk".

    I don't think they'll be mandated for simply being outside at any point.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    In non-mask news, has anyone read the piece about the central London economy in the Evening Standard (available without paywall via the website?)

    Rebalancing away from London is now well in progress, although not necessarily in the manner that the Government may have envisaged. It's completely screwed. Very little commuter traffic, almost no foreign visitors and only limited prospects for a revival. Most offices empty, public transport still operating at a fraction of pre-pandemic levels, all the theatres and nightclubs still forcibly shuttered of course, and predictions of 50,000 job losses in the West End alone.

    It's no wonder that Johnson is now trying to cajole commuters into going back into work, but he won't succeed (a recent survey apparently states that 88% of commuters polled said they would not be comfortable returning to public transport this year.) With time and support the tourist business and much of the wider retail, hospitality and entertainment sectors can be slowly nursed back to health, but much of that office space will stand empty forever once the current leases on it expire. The activity that it used to support has all moved into the leafier suburbs and the Home Counties. It's done. Finished.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    edited July 2020

    HYUFD said:

    Jeremy Hunt's constituency newsletter (I am an avid reader - it's a good read, with witty asides) predicts that masks in shops eill be compulsory within the next few days.

    And does Hunt have views on whether masks should be worn in pubs and restaurants ?

    Less than 10% wear them in the supermarkets I've been to.

    So that's a lot of people who might get annoyed - not a vote winner.

    And if wearing masks are necessary now then the government is admitting it fucked up massively by neither encouraging them four months ago nor ensuring their supply - again not a vote winner.
    60% of voters now want masks to be compulsory for shoppers, including 57% of Tory voters

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1282713273817866242?s=20
    And less than 10% wear them.

    So your poll is bollox.
    It isn't because it is not yet the law to make wearing them mandatory as it is on public transport, by the end of the week it likely will be the law and compulsory to wear a facemask while shopping
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205

    HYUFD said:

    Jeremy Hunt's constituency newsletter (I am an avid reader - it's a good read, with witty asides) predicts that masks in shops eill be compulsory within the next few days.

    And does Hunt have views on whether masks should be worn in pubs and restaurants ?

    Less than 10% wear them in the supermarkets I've been to.

    So that's a lot of people who might get annoyed - not a vote winner.

    And if wearing masks are necessary now then the government is admitting it fucked up massively by neither encouraging them four months ago nor ensuring their supply - again not a vote winner.
    60% of voters now want masks to be compulsory for shoppers, including 57% of Tory voters

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1282713273817866242?s=20
    And less than 10% wear them.

    So your poll is bollox.
    Hmm I think people don't wear them because others don't. If there's a degree of compulsion that changes the equation.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,885

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Electoral Calculus seat projection:
    Conservative Party: 333 (-32)
    Labour Party: 229 (+27)
    SNP: 53 (+5)
    Liberal Democrat: 11 (-)
    Plaid Cymru: 4 (-)
    Green Party: 1 (-)
    Speaker: 1 (-)

    2015 redux

    Tory majority of 69 without Scottish seats from the SNP (even including the 18 NI seats), Tory majority of just 16 with Scottish seats from the SNP, shows how much Starmer needs Scotland to become PM
    No, he doesn't. It shows how much the TORIES need England (and some of Wales and their NI allies) to win. The SNP are never going to vote for a Tory PM, are they?

    England's always going to be there though, its the Scottish MPs at Westminster that are more of an issue.

    And SNP MPs are no substitute for Labour MPs. Remember the SNP abstain on English-only matters so the complete Horlicks of a situation would be one with a Labour MP backed by SNP MPs - but a Tory majority if SNP abstain. English only laws would have a Tory veto on them. Plus the SNP would demand an independence referendum but if they win that then it means a Tory majority government in Westminster again.

    What a mess that would be!
    Indeed. I was being perhaps a bit disingenuous in not admitting that possibility, and you are right to pick me up on that.

    But on the other hand the English would get what they voted for (with the important effect of UK wide matters such as budget etc under the Barnett exception).

    In any case, would SLAB MPs for Scottish seats now not be unable to vote on English matters thanks to the changes Mr Cameron brought in? They've (the regulations for EVEL) have not been much in public debate of late but the SNP self-denyong ordinance rather negates the need anyway.

    And, now I think about it, it is only a mess from a Labour point of view. Not, arguably, a SNP or Tory one. And perhaps closer to a majority public view, even.
    The English wouldn't get what they voted for.

    In that scenario even though the English voted majority Tory then matters that are considered "devolved" would be decided by a Labour government. It'd be like the First Minister of Scotland being a Tory because England voted Tory.
    But the Labour administration couldn't deploy its Scottish MPs in (as I assume you mean) retained domestic business kept in England. It could certainly control business in Pmt. But any progress would as you say earlier be dependent on the Tories in Westminster Pmt. Or am I missing something?
    But that's the point, it'd be an absurd mess.

    For devolved matters like Health and Education we'd have a Labour Secretary of State in a Labour executive that requires Tory MPs to pass its legislation.

    It would be like a majority of Scottish MSPs being SNP but the Scottish Government being Tory, with a Tory Scottish Cabinet Secretary for Health and Sport and a Tory Scottish Cabinet Secretary for Education and Skills . . . but all justified as it would take the SNP majority of MSPs to pass legislation the Tory executive wanted to pass.
    Duly noted, thank you.

    And yet that ( a minority government, though not Tory-led) was the (quite deliberately contrived) situation for most of Holyrood's life, thanks to its Labour creators and LD allies. Goose, gander ...

    But perhaps perceptions of minority governments differ according to experience.
    I'm not talking a minority situation though.

    Since they're devolved the Secretary of State for Health is responsible for England's health and the Secretary of State for Education is responsible for England's education but I'm talking about a situation where the Tories have an English majority - but Labour rule is put in place in England because the SNP controls Scotland.

    Its utterly illogical. Its not a minority issue, I'm saying its like the SNP having a majority of Scottish seats but the Scottish administration was Tory instead. That's the scenario I'm talking about.
    The joys of the Blairite devolution settlement. But the Tories have done nothing to correct it for England, except for EVEL.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jeremy Hunt's constituency newsletter (I am an avid reader - it's a good read, with witty asides) predicts that masks in shops eill be compulsory within the next few days.

    And does Hunt have views on whether masks should be worn in pubs and restaurants ?

    Less than 10% wear them in the supermarkets I've been to.

    So that's a lot of people who might get annoyed - not a vote winner.

    And if wearing masks are necessary now then the government is admitting it fucked up massively by neither encouraging them four months ago nor ensuring their supply - again not a vote winner.
    60% of voters now want masks to be compulsory for shoppers, including 57% of Tory voters

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1282713273817866242?s=20
    And less than 10% wear them.

    So your poll is bollox.
    It isn't because it is not yet the law to make wearing them mandatory as it is on public transport, by the end of the week it likely will be the law and compulsory to wear a facemask while shopping
    And High Streets will be even more bolloxed.

    Still it means more profits for Amazon.

    And good luck getting people to go to pubs and restaurants after they've been told that its not safe.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    MaxPB said:

    If that Kings college study turns out to be true then herd immunity is going to be impossible to achieve.

    It would depend on how much cellular compared to humoral (antibody) immunity there is. The Kings study would explain why some of my swab positive colleagues don't show antibodies.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    rcs1000 said:

    I learned over the week-end that an astonishing 40% plus of the human genome is made up of incorporated virus DNA (Dr John Lee in the Speccie).

    If this is true it would be surely be remarkable if a large portion of the population did not already have some sort of inbuilt immunity to Corona, the latest in a very, very long line of viruses that have stretched back into the mists of time.

    It also surely follows that the level of immunity would vary from genome to genome, based on the DNA of one's ancestors, and it is this and not discrimination that means some communities have suffered more than others.

    One person with CV-19 infected 87% of his fellow choir members.
    Average age 69.

    If a 26 year old 'superspreader' infects 87% of his fellow 121 26 year old fellow choir members, 10% have colds and the rest have no symptoms whatever, then what does that 'infection' actually mean.

    Are these really 'cases?'
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,885
    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    If that Kings college study turns out to be true then herd immunity is going to be impossible to achieve.

    That's not necessarily true.

    The t-cell response is also very important - see https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/t-cells-found-covid-19-patients-bode-well-long-term-immunity
    Isn't the issue that t-cell immunity may not be obtained by asymptomatic patients.
    Immunity is surely defined by 'lack of symptoms?' Some rats are 'immune' to certain rat poisons. The poison enters their systems but it doesn;t kill themvor make them sick
    I don't think you can be a carrier if you are immune.
    Typhoid Mary was immune, in the sense of not having symptoms, so far as I can recollect.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    What’s the PB pub-going factor like? Have we all been down the pub - or not? I’ve been twice, albeit to the same pub both times!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    rcs1000 said:

    I learned over the week-end that an astonishing 40% plus of the human genome is made up of incorporated virus DNA (Dr John Lee in the Speccie).

    If this is true it would be surely be remarkable if a large portion of the population did not already have some sort of inbuilt immunity to Corona, the latest in a very, very long line of viruses that have stretched back into the mists of time.

    It also surely follows that the level of immunity would vary from genome to genome, based on the DNA of one's ancestors, and it is this and not discrimination that means some communities have suffered more than others.

    One person with CV-19 infected 87% of his fellow choir members.
    Average age 69.

    If a 26 year old 'superspreader' infects 87% of his fellow 121 26 year old fellow choir members, 10% have colds and the rest have no symptoms whatever, then what does that 'infection' actually mean.

    Are these really 'cases?'
    It means you have a whole bunch of people silently spreading it far and wide.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jeremy Hunt's constituency newsletter (I am an avid reader - it's a good read, with witty asides) predicts that masks in shops eill be compulsory within the next few days.

    And does Hunt have views on whether masks should be worn in pubs and restaurants ?

    Less than 10% wear them in the supermarkets I've been to.

    So that's a lot of people who might get annoyed - not a vote winner.

    And if wearing masks are necessary now then the government is admitting it fucked up massively by neither encouraging them four months ago nor ensuring their supply - again not a vote winner.
    60% of voters now want masks to be compulsory for shoppers, including 57% of Tory voters

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1282713273817866242?s=20
    And less than 10% wear them.

    So your poll is bollox.
    I thought the fraction was higher than that now, approaching a third or so?
    Not if what I saw in Cambridge when I was out shopping on Saturday is anything to go by. Mask use at perhaps 5%, certainly no more than 10%, and quite a lot of those were being worn as completely useless necklaces by people who were yakking on the phone, walking along whilst eating stuff, or probably in some cases just plain straightforward sick of breathing through a rag.

    I think these polls showing massive support for the things are just examples of people giving virtue signalling answers. In reality then don't mind masks being theoretically imposed upon other people, but have no intention of using them themselves.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,885

    rcs1000 said:

    I learned over the week-end that an astonishing 40% plus of the human genome is made up of incorporated virus DNA (Dr John Lee in the Speccie).

    If this is true it would be surely be remarkable if a large portion of the population did not already have some sort of inbuilt immunity to Corona, the latest in a very, very long line of viruses that have stretched back into the mists of time.

    It also surely follows that the level of immunity would vary from genome to genome, based on the DNA of one's ancestors, and it is this and not discrimination that means some communities have suffered more than others.

    One person with CV-19 infected 87% of his fellow choir members.
    Average age 69.

    If a 26 year old 'superspreader' infects 87% of his fellow 121 26 year old fellow choir members, 10% have colds and the rest have no symptoms whatever, then what does that 'infection' actually mean.

    Are these really 'cases?'
    THey are, if they are infectious - which is the key issue in this pandemic. Ro and all that.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jeremy Hunt's constituency newsletter (I am an avid reader - it's a good read, with witty asides) predicts that masks in shops eill be compulsory within the next few days.

    And does Hunt have views on whether masks should be worn in pubs and restaurants ?

    Less than 10% wear them in the supermarkets I've been to.

    So that's a lot of people who might get annoyed - not a vote winner.

    And if wearing masks are necessary now then the government is admitting it fucked up massively by neither encouraging them four months ago nor ensuring their supply - again not a vote winner.
    60% of voters now want masks to be compulsory for shoppers, including 57% of Tory voters

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1282713273817866242?s=20
    And less than 10% wear them.

    So your poll is bollox.
    Hmm I think people don't wear them because others don't. If there's a degree of compulsion that changes the equation.
    They might wear them but its not going to be a vote winner.

    They'll also want to know why they need to wear them now when the government has told them for four months that they don't.

    And they'll want to know why politicians don't bother wearing them while telling others to do so.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Pulpstar said:

    I wonder at what point it'll move on to encouraging, then recommending, then mandating them outside, too. And it'll be "because there's less risk, but there's still a risk".

    I don't think they'll be mandated for simply being outside at any point.
    I hope you're right, but I wouldn't put anything past this Government. They wouldn't even be the first to do it. There are draconian mask rules already in force in Spain, for example.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jeremy Hunt's constituency newsletter (I am an avid reader - it's a good read, with witty asides) predicts that masks in shops eill be compulsory within the next few days.

    And does Hunt have views on whether masks should be worn in pubs and restaurants ?

    Less than 10% wear them in the supermarkets I've been to.

    So that's a lot of people who might get annoyed - not a vote winner.

    And if wearing masks are necessary now then the government is admitting it fucked up massively by neither encouraging them four months ago nor ensuring their supply - again not a vote winner.
    60% of voters now want masks to be compulsory for shoppers, including 57% of Tory voters

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1282713273817866242?s=20
    And less than 10% wear them.

    So your poll is bollox.
    I thought the fraction was higher than that now, approaching a third or so?
    Not if what I saw in Cambridge when I was out shopping on Saturday is anything to go by. Mask use at perhaps 5%, certainly no more than 10%, and quite a lot of those were being worn as completely useless necklaces by people who were yakking on the phone, walking along whilst eating stuff, or probably in some cases just plain straightforward sick of breathing through a rag.

    I think these polls showing massive support for the things are just examples of people giving virtue signalling answers. In reality then don't mind masks being theoretically imposed upon other people, but have no intention of using them themselves.
    Polling says it's up to a third - https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-53388444
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jeremy Hunt's constituency newsletter (I am an avid reader - it's a good read, with witty asides) predicts that masks in shops eill be compulsory within the next few days.

    And does Hunt have views on whether masks should be worn in pubs and restaurants ?

    Less than 10% wear them in the supermarkets I've been to.

    So that's a lot of people who might get annoyed - not a vote winner.

    And if wearing masks are necessary now then the government is admitting it fucked up massively by neither encouraging them four months ago nor ensuring their supply - again not a vote winner.
    60% of voters now want masks to be compulsory for shoppers, including 57% of Tory voters

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1282713273817866242?s=20
    And less than 10% wear them.

    So your poll is bollox.
    It isn't because it is not yet the law to make wearing them mandatory as it is on public transport, by the end of the week it likely will be the law and compulsory to wear a facemask while shopping
    And High Streets will be even more bolloxed.

    Still it means more profits for Amazon.

    And good luck getting people to go to pubs and restaurants after they've been told that its not safe.
    The reverse, wearing facemasks reduces the spread of Covid making it safer to go shopping, not making facemasks compulsory means it is more sensible to shop via online delivery rather than in store
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,707

    rcs1000 said:

    I learned over the week-end that an astonishing 40% plus of the human genome is made up of incorporated virus DNA (Dr John Lee in the Speccie).

    If this is true it would be surely be remarkable if a large portion of the population did not already have some sort of inbuilt immunity to Corona, the latest in a very, very long line of viruses that have stretched back into the mists of time.

    It also surely follows that the level of immunity would vary from genome to genome, based on the DNA of one's ancestors, and it is this and not discrimination that means some communities have suffered more than others.

    One person with CV-19 infected 87% of his fellow choir members.
    Average age 69.

    If a 26 year old 'superspreader' infects 87% of his fellow 121 26 year old fellow choir members, 10% have colds and the rest have no symptoms whatever, then what does that 'infection' actually mean.

    Are these really 'cases?'
    You can't be serious.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    What’s the PB pub-going factor like? Have we all been down the pub - or not? I’ve been twice, albeit to the same pub both times!

    Opening day, Saturday just gone and yesterday. Going Thursday evening as well to meet some work colleagues.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:

    If that Kings college study turns out to be true then herd immunity is going to be impossible to achieve.

    It would depend on how much cellular compared to humoral (antibody) immunity there is. The Kings study would explain why some of my swab positive colleagues don't show antibodies.
    The fact that some communities have very high antibody rates and others very low ones despite not dissimilar exposures (Sweden versus certain US communities), suggests inherited virus related genome make-up is very, very important.

    Some communities are very lucky in this respect, others very unlucky. Nobody can help their genetic make-up. But it would surely explain a lot.

  • https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-53388805

    If the Government want to pay the several £Billion bill, they can do so. Let's get FTTP to all at the same time please.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jeremy Hunt's constituency newsletter (I am an avid reader - it's a good read, with witty asides) predicts that masks in shops eill be compulsory within the next few days.

    And does Hunt have views on whether masks should be worn in pubs and restaurants ?

    Less than 10% wear them in the supermarkets I've been to.

    So that's a lot of people who might get annoyed - not a vote winner.

    And if wearing masks are necessary now then the government is admitting it fucked up massively by neither encouraging them four months ago nor ensuring their supply - again not a vote winner.
    60% of voters now want masks to be compulsory for shoppers, including 57% of Tory voters

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1282713273817866242?s=20
    And less than 10% wear them.

    So your poll is bollox.
    I thought the fraction was higher than that now, approaching a third or so?
    They might do on public transport but not in shops.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jeremy Hunt's constituency newsletter (I am an avid reader - it's a good read, with witty asides) predicts that masks in shops eill be compulsory within the next few days.

    And does Hunt have views on whether masks should be worn in pubs and restaurants ?

    Less than 10% wear them in the supermarkets I've been to.

    So that's a lot of people who might get annoyed - not a vote winner.

    And if wearing masks are necessary now then the government is admitting it fucked up massively by neither encouraging them four months ago nor ensuring their supply - again not a vote winner.
    60% of voters now want masks to be compulsory for shoppers, including 57% of Tory voters

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1282713273817866242?s=20
    And less than 10% wear them.

    So your poll is bollox.
    I thought the fraction was higher than that now, approaching a third or so?
    They might do on public transport but not in shops.
    Good point. The poll question wasn't specific.
  • Why are we not putting all of the magic money tree into FTTP exactly? It's a guaranteed long-term pay off and has all sorts of gains for productivity and working. Upgrade every home in the country with the money we're spending on infrastructure.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Pulpstar said:

    I wonder at what point it'll move on to encouraging, then recommending, then mandating them outside, too. And it'll be "because there's less risk, but there's still a risk".

    I don't think they'll be mandated for simply being outside at any point.
    I hope you're right, but I wouldn't put anything past this Government. They wouldn't even be the first to do it. There are draconian mask rules already in force in Spain, for example.
    Severe yes but not harsh, and widely supported, we don’t want to go back to where we were with a total lockdown for 50+ days.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    What’s the PB pub-going factor like? Have we all been down the pub - or not? I’ve been twice, albeit to the same pub both times!

    My parents went to Spoons in Woking today. They said it was very professionally set up (it's quite a good layout anyway), and all the usual daytime drinkers were in there!
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620
    MaxPB said:

    What’s the PB pub-going factor like? Have we all been down the pub - or not? I’ve been twice, albeit to the same pub both times!

    Opening day, Saturday just gone and yesterday. Going Thursday evening as well to meet some work colleagues.
    What happens if there is an infected person in the pub while you are there ?

    Do you have to self-isolate afterwards ?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jeremy Hunt's constituency newsletter (I am an avid reader - it's a good read, with witty asides) predicts that masks in shops eill be compulsory within the next few days.

    And does Hunt have views on whether masks should be worn in pubs and restaurants ?

    Less than 10% wear them in the supermarkets I've been to.

    So that's a lot of people who might get annoyed - not a vote winner.

    And if wearing masks are necessary now then the government is admitting it fucked up massively by neither encouraging them four months ago nor ensuring their supply - again not a vote winner.
    60% of voters now want masks to be compulsory for shoppers, including 57% of Tory voters

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1282713273817866242?s=20
    And less than 10% wear them.

    So your poll is bollox.
    Hmm I think people don't wear them because others don't. If there's a degree of compulsion that changes the equation.
    They might wear them but its not going to be a vote winner.

    They'll also want to know why they need to wear them now when the government has told them for four months that they don't.

    And they'll want to know why politicians don't bother wearing them while telling others to do so.
    It's not that difficult because the government can say it's part of moving away from 2m social distancing to 1m social distancing and allowing larger groups of people to be in the same place (no more queueing, groups of 20 people meeting outdoors etc...). Honestly, if the government links mask wearing to no longer having to queue up to shop then it will be a very big vote winner.
This discussion has been closed.