politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The latest Opinium poll has Starmer beating Johnson on thirtee
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The latest Opinium poll has Starmer beating Johnson on thirteen different measures yet still the Tories retain their 4% voting lead
The above chart from Opinium sets out the responses to a wide range of match-ups between Starmer and Johnson and as can be seen these sre not good for the current incumbent at Number 10.
Comments
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Expect further leads for the Tories, maybe by up to ten points until January, before falling away. Then who knows?
First! Perhaps like Starmer.1 -
Second, like Boris2
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bronze0
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Dominic Cummings is recruiting a new team of crack data scientists who will soon prove the silent (because unpolled) majority supports Boris. This is, after all, how Brexit was won.0
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FPT: Mr. Sandpit, sorry for the tardy reply. Those both look good to me.
Let's hope Bottas wins and Norris is 2nd.
Edited extra bit: a couple more tips and some thoughts are up here: https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2020/07/styrian-grand-prix-pre-race-2020.html1 -
OT the wildely-trailed programme about the 13-year-old girl who did the sums to prove Spitfires and Hurricanes needed eight machine guns rather than the four originally planned was disappointing: a rambling, repetitive and heavily padded half hour badly in need of editing down to ten minutes that actually told the story.
BBC News Channel today, Sunday 12th July at 10:30am and 4:30pm.0 -
Given a forced choice (as here) between Starmer and Johnson, I would go for Starmer every time. But when it comes to an election, I will still vote Lib Dem.
This example may help to explain why the Labour Party polling is less encouraging than than that for preferences between just the two leaders.0 -
Don't forget the Russian input.DecrepiterJohnL said:Dominic Cummings is recruiting a new team of crack data scientists who will soon prove the silent (because unpolled) majority supports Boris. This is, after all, how Brexit was won.
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The Labour party brand is still toxic.
When canvassing I used to find that people were very reluctant to admit that they voted Labour probably because of embarrassment, in telephone polls the same thing is likely to occur. But it shouldn't happen in online polls.
On leadership issues, Sir Keir hasn't made any real mistakes yet, probably because he hasn't done anything much at all, except he's started to deal with antisemitism, he's still got a mountain to climb there but he won't lose any points with normal people if he deals with that issue robustly.0 -
On topic and a point I made on David's Saturday thread. A plurality of voters don't care whether Johnson is competent, has the nation's interests at heart, is principled etc. As long as that's the case, he and not Starmer will be PM.
Voters are making choices. They are choosing the charlatan. And it seems they know he is such.1 -
FPT On the County of Herefordshire spike.
50 years ago a Statistics101 class might begin with a quote from Sir Josiah Stamp:Foxy said:
Historic cases being entered?Wulfrun_Phil said:
WTF is going on in rural Herefordshire? 56 cases out of nowhere yesterday.Malmesbury said:England case data down to low level authority -
What must be kept ever in mind, however, is that in every case, the figures are first put down by a village watchman, and he puts down anything he damn well pleases.2 -
Oh no, imagine the horror of governments making decisions based on data and science.DecrepiterJohnL said:Dominic Cummings is recruiting a new team of crack data scientists who will soon prove the silent (because unpolled) majority supports Boris. This is, after all, how Brexit was won.
Much better to just ask all the PPE and liberal arts graduates how they *feel* about any given subject.2 -
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A long and weirdly sympathetic article focusing mainly on utopian dreaming and which seems to avoid the obvious answer, 'because it was a really stupid idea':
Why this police-free protest zone ultimately failed?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-532184481 -
Cummings knows nothing about science. He uses pseudo scientific cliches to dress up his opinions and justify his ideological schemes.Sandpit said:
Oh no, imagine the horror of governments making decisions based on data and science.DecrepiterJohnL said:Dominic Cummings is recruiting a new team of crack data scientists who will soon prove the silent (because unpolled) majority supports Boris. This is, after all, how Brexit was won.
Much better to just ask all the PPE and liberal arts graduates how they *feel* about any given subject.1 -
They’re recruiting actual scientists.Jonathan said:
Cummings knows nothing about science. He uses pseudo scientific cliches to dress up his opinions and justify his ideological schemes.Sandpit said:
Oh no, imagine the horror of governments making decisions based on data and science.DecrepiterJohnL said:Dominic Cummings is recruiting a new team of crack data scientists who will soon prove the silent (because unpolled) majority supports Boris. This is, after all, how Brexit was won.
Much better to just ask all the PPE and liberal arts graduates how they *feel* about any given subject.0 -
Thats all true, but it wont be in 2024, they will care about his record by then, assuming he is the candidate.FF43 said:On topic and a point I made on David's Saturday thread. A plurality of voters don't care whether Johnson is competent, has the nation's interests at heart, is principled etc. As long as that's the case, he and not Starmer will be PM.
Voters are making choices. They are choosing the charlatan. And it seems they know he is such.2 -
0
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Quite so. Though I'm actually not a fan of apple pie.Charles said:
These surveys are meaningless.Nigelb said:
The assumption that paying higher taxes is going to accomplish all those things, particularly in the aftermath of an extremely deep recession, is somewhat.... optimistic.IanB2 said:GUARDIAN: Britons are prepared to pay higher taxes to turn the country into a kinder, more equal and supportive place to live after the coronavirus pandemic is over, according to new research set to be published this week. A poll carried out for the strategy consultancy BritainThinks reveals that just 12% of people want life to return to normal “exactly as it was before” once the pandemic is over.
The research shows three clear priorities are emerging: better funding for the NHS, better treatment and pay for essential workers, and an economic recovery that doesn’t just focus on London. There is also an appetite for a kinder society that prioritises better support for people struggling with mental or physical health problems, allows workers more time off with family and friends, cares about the environment and ensures high levels of employment.
Do you want to pay key workers more?
Do you want an economic recovery for everyone?
Do you want workers to have more time off?
Do you like motherhood?
How about apple pie?
No one can answer in the negative without looking like a complete heel
Also surprised at the use of wrestling lingo (unless heel also comes from other areas)
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There are times to pause the campaign, fellas...
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/12822187389228032001 -
As long they are not too remainer-y.Sandpit said:
They’re recruiting actual scientists.Jonathan said:
Cummings knows nothing about science. He uses pseudo scientific cliches to dress up his opinions and justify his ideological schemes.Sandpit said:
Oh no, imagine the horror of governments making decisions based on data and science.DecrepiterJohnL said:Dominic Cummings is recruiting a new team of crack data scientists who will soon prove the silent (because unpolled) majority supports Boris. This is, after all, how Brexit was won.
Much better to just ask all the PPE and liberal arts graduates how they *feel* about any given subject.0 -
It is more likely people will care about his record, but people knew his character and history in 2019 too, they knew his record. They liked it or thought it was bearable given the options. It's that which might change.noneoftheabove said:
Thats all true, but it wont be in 2024, they will care about his record by then, assuming he is the candidate.FF43 said:On topic and a point I made on David's Saturday thread. A plurality of voters don't care whether Johnson is competent, has the nation's interests at heart, is principled etc. As long as that's the case, he and not Starmer will be PM.
Voters are making choices. They are choosing the charlatan. And it seems they know he is such.0 -
Are they free to disagree with their lord and master if the data is unhelpful or will he sack them like all the others who have dared to offer a different view?Sandpit said:
They’re recruiting actual scientists.Jonathan said:
Cummings knows nothing about science. He uses pseudo scientific cliches to dress up his opinions and justify his ideological schemes.Sandpit said:
Oh no, imagine the horror of governments making decisions based on data and science.DecrepiterJohnL said:Dominic Cummings is recruiting a new team of crack data scientists who will soon prove the silent (because unpolled) majority supports Boris. This is, after all, how Brexit was won.
Much better to just ask all the PPE and liberal arts graduates how they *feel* about any given subject.
It’s all ego and pseudo scientific window dressing.1 -
I am wondering what percentage of people could pick Anneliese Dodds out of an ID parade. And what percentage would want to.1
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You can recruit all the 'actual' you want but if they are managed by a control freak with a specific world view who demands totally loyalty, zero dissent and enforced group think then you aren't going to get decent answers.Sandpit said:
They’re recruiting actual scientists.Jonathan said:
Cummings knows nothing about science. He uses pseudo scientific cliches to dress up his opinions and justify his ideological schemes.Sandpit said:
Oh no, imagine the horror of governments making decisions based on data and science.DecrepiterJohnL said:Dominic Cummings is recruiting a new team of crack data scientists who will soon prove the silent (because unpolled) majority supports Boris. This is, after all, how Brexit was won.
Much better to just ask all the PPE and liberal arts graduates how they *feel* about any given subject.2 -
The polls are hardly moving right now - everything is MoE. The Tory lead could be anything from four points to 10 points, but Sunak's mini budget did not give them a lift, despite the waterfalls of cash and the adulatory headlines.
Four months after Corbyn, Tory hubris, arrogance and incompetence have given Labour a lift because the party has a credible leader. But Labour will have to start doing some heavy lifting itself at some point. Starmer cannot do it alone. The party as a whole has spent years losing the trust of key demographics. Voters will need to see real and sustained evidence of top to bottom change before Labour starts leading in the polls.2 -
Starmer the Charmer, indeed.
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uncracked scientists would be better still.Sandpit said:
Oh no, imagine the horror of governments making decisions based on data and science.DecrepiterJohnL said:Dominic Cummings is recruiting a new team of crack data scientists who will soon prove the silent (because unpolled) majority supports Boris. This is, after all, how Brexit was won.
Much better to just ask all the PPE and liberal arts graduates how they *feel* about any given subject.0 -
I am wondering how a Starmer/Sunak economic trust pairing would fare against a Johnson/Dodds one.DavidL said:I am wondering what percentage of people could pick Anneliese Dodds out of an ID parade. And what percentage would want to.
More seriously, Dodds' big moments will come in the autumn. She has definitely disappointed up to now, but I amnot sure it is that smart to write her off completely until the full scale of the economic challenges we face become visible to most voters. Right now, they are abstract unless you are paying close attention.
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Pretty sure I remember it from PG Wodehouse and Dorothy L Sayers.kle4 said:
Quite so. Though I'm actually not a fan of apple pie.Charles said:
These surveys are meaningless.Nigelb said:
The assumption that paying higher taxes is going to accomplish all those things, particularly in the aftermath of an extremely deep recession, is somewhat.... optimistic.IanB2 said:GUARDIAN: Britons are prepared to pay higher taxes to turn the country into a kinder, more equal and supportive place to live after the coronavirus pandemic is over, according to new research set to be published this week. A poll carried out for the strategy consultancy BritainThinks reveals that just 12% of people want life to return to normal “exactly as it was before” once the pandemic is over.
The research shows three clear priorities are emerging: better funding for the NHS, better treatment and pay for essential workers, and an economic recovery that doesn’t just focus on London. There is also an appetite for a kinder society that prioritises better support for people struggling with mental or physical health problems, allows workers more time off with family and friends, cares about the environment and ensures high levels of employment.
Do you want to pay key workers more?
Do you want an economic recovery for everyone?
Do you want workers to have more time off?
Do you like motherhood?
How about apple pie?
No one can answer in the negative without looking like a complete heel
Also surprised at the use of wrestling lingo (unless heel also comes from other areas)
You decide where Charles is more likely to find his inspiration.
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I agree that we have major challenges to face but she needs to find the ability to get a hearing about an alternative. Sunak is banking a lot of credit right now that he will (have to) draw on when things get tougher. She is not.SouthamObserver said:
I am wondering how a Starmer/Sunak economic trust pairing would fare against a Johnson/Dodds one.DavidL said:I am wondering what percentage of people could pick Anneliese Dodds out of an ID parade. And what percentage would want to.
More seriously, Dodds' big moments will come in the autumn. She has definitely disappointed up to now, but I amnot sure it is that smart to write her off completely until the full scale of the economic challenges we face become visible to most voters. Right now, they are abstract unless you are paying close attention.0 -
Data-driven decisions are better than "plucked out of thin air decisions".Sandpit said:
Oh no, imagine the horror of governments making decisions based on data and science.DecrepiterJohnL said:Dominic Cummings is recruiting a new team of crack data scientists who will soon prove the silent (because unpolled) majority supports Boris. This is, after all, how Brexit was won.
Much better to just ask all the PPE and liberal arts graduates how they *feel* about any given subject.
But also always worth remembering that "lies, damned lies and statistics" is just as applicable to data science as it is to, well, statistics.
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Have we got any scientists in the cabinet? Must have surely but not aware of them, seems to be all PPE, Economics or History. Cummings who runs the cabinet did history, not science, despite his delusions.Sandpit said:
Oh no, imagine the horror of governments making decisions based on data and science.DecrepiterJohnL said:Dominic Cummings is recruiting a new team of crack data scientists who will soon prove the silent (because unpolled) majority supports Boris. This is, after all, how Brexit was won.
Much better to just ask all the PPE and liberal arts graduates how they *feel* about any given subject.1 -
Charles always maintains kayfabe.Nigelb said:
Pretty sure I remember it from PG Wodehouse and Dorothy L Sayers.kle4 said:
Quite so. Though I'm actually not a fan of apple pie.Charles said:
These surveys are meaningless.Nigelb said:
The assumption that paying higher taxes is going to accomplish all those things, particularly in the aftermath of an extremely deep recession, is somewhat.... optimistic.IanB2 said:GUARDIAN: Britons are prepared to pay higher taxes to turn the country into a kinder, more equal and supportive place to live after the coronavirus pandemic is over, according to new research set to be published this week. A poll carried out for the strategy consultancy BritainThinks reveals that just 12% of people want life to return to normal “exactly as it was before” once the pandemic is over.
The research shows three clear priorities are emerging: better funding for the NHS, better treatment and pay for essential workers, and an economic recovery that doesn’t just focus on London. There is also an appetite for a kinder society that prioritises better support for people struggling with mental or physical health problems, allows workers more time off with family and friends, cares about the environment and ensures high levels of employment.
Do you want to pay key workers more?
Do you want an economic recovery for everyone?
Do you want workers to have more time off?
Do you like motherhood?
How about apple pie?
No one can answer in the negative without looking like a complete heel
Also surprised at the use of wrestling lingo (unless heel also comes from other areas)
You decide where Charles is more likely to find his inspiration.1 -
I am beginning to wonder if its one of those questions that you answer as you know you should to the bright, shiny person from the Guardian and slightly differently when you are in the isolation of the ballot box. You know the kind of thing, Brexit, Tory governments, etc.Nigelb said:0 -
Apparently Coffey and Sharma out of 21.noneoftheabove said:
Have we got any scientists in the cabinet? Must have surely but not aware of them, seems to be all PPE, Economics or History. Cummings who runs the cabinet did history, not science, despite his delusions.Sandpit said:
Oh no, imagine the horror of governments making decisions based on data and science.DecrepiterJohnL said:Dominic Cummings is recruiting a new team of crack data scientists who will soon prove the silent (because unpolled) majority supports Boris. This is, after all, how Brexit was won.
Much better to just ask all the PPE and liberal arts graduates how they *feel* about any given subject.1 -
Rawnsley: Is there room at the top of Conservative politics for two people known by their first names?
[Rishi's] sleekness, the ready smile and an aura of polished competence make a striking contrast with the crumpled, jowly and often scowly prime minister. Mr Johnson’s rhetorical defaults are jokiness, personal abuse, boosterism and bluster. His chancellor is an elegant phrase-maker.
Officialdom knows who it prefers. Senior civil servants shudder at what one calls the “utter dysfunctionality” of the regime at Number 10.
The rise of Rishi is being lubricated by a personal marketing operation of a kind never before employed by a chancellor.
Envy is a powerful driver of political behaviour. Boris Johnson would not be human – he certainly would not be Boris Johnson – if he were entirely relaxed about the sensational ascent of the younger man next door.0 -
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Unbelievable story!Scott_xP said:
Somebody still cares what Gordon Brown thinks or thought a decade ago.0 -
The Government position nicely makes the point that you really should keep a little bit further away from metric campaigners. Because, if they are being twats about metrication, they are possibly going to be twats about Covid too...Quincel said:There are times to pause the campaign, fellas...
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/12822187389228032000 -
Knifing the Snake should be Johson's absolute top priority if he has any sense.IanB2 said:Rawnsley: Is there room at the top of Conservative politics for two people known by their first names?
[Rishi's] sleekness, the ready smile and an aura of polished competence make a striking contrast with the crumpled, jowly and often scowly prime minister. Mr Johnson’s rhetorical defaults are jokiness, personal abuse, boosterism and bluster. His chancellor is an elegant phrase-maker.
Officialdom knows who it prefers. Senior civil servants shudder at what one calls the “utter dysfunctionality” of the regime at Number 10.
The rise of Rishi is being lubricated by a personal marketing operation of a kind never before employed by a chancellor.
Envy is a powerful driver of political behaviour. Boris Johnson would not be human – he certainly would not be Boris Johnson – if he were entirely relaxed about the sensational ascent of the younger man next door.0 -
It's the short peice of time thats critical. Wearing of masks in public is very undesirable for lots of reasons, the only positive is that it reduces the transmission of a disease which apart from in a few areas is vanishingly rare, and which isn't very dangerous to most people either.DavidL said:
It's probably not possible to eradicate CV19, like the flue it's probably going to come and go each winter and unfortunately will finish off some older people.
It would be one thing to wear masks for a month or two then go back to normal, but at present it will make almost no difference given there is almost no disease in circulation. I therefore fear that our Lords and masters intend lots of these measures for the medium to long term - hence that hateful phrase "new normal". This is what all right thinking people should be fighting against - wrecking our way of life in the long term because of a disease which doesn't pose a significant risk to most people is madness.2 -
So when the transfer window opens, is it the Tories going for Starmer or Labour going for Rishi?SouthamObserver said:
I am wondering how a Starmer/Sunak economic trust pairing would fare against a Johnson/Dodds one.0 -
Probably. Cultural habits are deeply ingrained.DavidL said:
I am beginning to wonder if its one of those questions that you answer as you know you should to the bright, shiny person from the Guardian and slightly differently when you are in the isolation of the ballot box. You know the kind of thing, Brexit, Tory governments, etc.Nigelb said:
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/07/04/national/science-health/japans-history-wearing-masks-coronavirus/0 -
According the the Cambridge English dictionary (I know) it is old-fashioned & informal...kle4 said:
Quite so. Though I'm actually not a fan of apple pie.Charles said:
These surveys are meaningless.Nigelb said:
The assumption that paying higher taxes is going to accomplish all those things, particularly in the aftermath of an extremely deep recession, is somewhat.... optimistic.IanB2 said:GUARDIAN: Britons are prepared to pay higher taxes to turn the country into a kinder, more equal and supportive place to live after the coronavirus pandemic is over, according to new research set to be published this week. A poll carried out for the strategy consultancy BritainThinks reveals that just 12% of people want life to return to normal “exactly as it was before” once the pandemic is over.
The research shows three clear priorities are emerging: better funding for the NHS, better treatment and pay for essential workers, and an economic recovery that doesn’t just focus on London. There is also an appetite for a kinder society that prioritises better support for people struggling with mental or physical health problems, allows workers more time off with family and friends, cares about the environment and ensures high levels of employment.
Do you want to pay key workers more?
Do you want an economic recovery for everyone?
Do you want workers to have more time off?
Do you like motherhood?
How about apple pie?
No one can answer in the negative without looking like a complete heel
Also surprised at the use of wrestling lingo (unless heel also comes from other areas)0 -
Much like Professional Wrestling.Charles said:
According the the Cambridge English dictionary (I know) it is old-fashioned & informal...kle4 said:
Quite so. Though I'm actually not a fan of apple pie.Charles said:
These surveys are meaningless.Nigelb said:
The assumption that paying higher taxes is going to accomplish all those things, particularly in the aftermath of an extremely deep recession, is somewhat.... optimistic.IanB2 said:GUARDIAN: Britons are prepared to pay higher taxes to turn the country into a kinder, more equal and supportive place to live after the coronavirus pandemic is over, according to new research set to be published this week. A poll carried out for the strategy consultancy BritainThinks reveals that just 12% of people want life to return to normal “exactly as it was before” once the pandemic is over.
The research shows three clear priorities are emerging: better funding for the NHS, better treatment and pay for essential workers, and an economic recovery that doesn’t just focus on London. There is also an appetite for a kinder society that prioritises better support for people struggling with mental or physical health problems, allows workers more time off with family and friends, cares about the environment and ensures high levels of employment.
Do you want to pay key workers more?
Do you want an economic recovery for everyone?
Do you want workers to have more time off?
Do you like motherhood?
How about apple pie?
No one can answer in the negative without looking like a complete heel
Also surprised at the use of wrestling lingo (unless heel also comes from other areas)1 -
I rather suspect with Boris-Rishi were are seeing the next Cameron-Osborne team - two politician who get on very well and a have a similar view of the world. It will serve us well for the next four years. Cameron would have been happy for Osborne to succeed him; ditto the current occupants of Downing Street.IanB2 said:Rawnsley: Is there room at the top of Conservative politics for two people known by their first names?
[Rishi's] sleekness, the ready smile and an aura of polished competence make a striking contrast with the crumpled, jowly and often scowly prime minister. Mr Johnson’s rhetorical defaults are jokiness, personal abuse, boosterism and bluster. His chancellor is an elegant phrase-maker.
Officialdom knows who it prefers. Senior civil servants shudder at what one calls the “utter dysfunctionality” of the regime at Number 10.
The rise of Rishi is being lubricated by a personal marketing operation of a kind never before employed by a chancellor.
Envy is a powerful driver of political behaviour. Boris Johnson would not be human – he certainly would not be Boris Johnson – if he were entirely relaxed about the sensational ascent of the younger man next door.
Sorry, Mr. Rawnsley. A fluff piece.1 -
It is being pointed out on twitter that the number of COVID deaths reported for England on July 10 according to official figures was.....zero.
Which only goes to illustrate what a pile of utterly specious b*llocks that Tram cartoon posted down thread is.
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The one campaign where we know he used data scientists he unexpectedly won.Alistair said:
You can recruit all the 'actual' you want but if they are managed by a control freak with a specific world view who demands totally loyalty, zero dissent and enforced group think then you aren't going to get decent answers.Sandpit said:
They’re recruiting actual scientists.Jonathan said:
Cummings knows nothing about science. He uses pseudo scientific cliches to dress up his opinions and justify his ideological schemes.Sandpit said:
Oh no, imagine the horror of governments making decisions based on data and science.DecrepiterJohnL said:Dominic Cummings is recruiting a new team of crack data scientists who will soon prove the silent (because unpolled) majority supports Boris. This is, after all, how Brexit was won.
Much better to just ask all the PPE and liberal arts graduates how they *feel* about any given subject.
That does suggest he works well with them or has an ability to spot patterns no one else sees. I suspect the former1 -
Depends if you want to keep it at zero or see it surge back up.contrarian said:It is being pointed out on twitter that the number of COVID deaths in England on July 10 according to official figures was.....zero.
Which only goes to illustrate what a pile of utterly specious b*llocks that Tram cartoon posted down thread is.
If the choice is another lockdown and financial restrictions in the future or getting back to normal with a cloth mask, then does that change things?1 -
The issue is her only alternative seems to be “spend more”. Do what you are doing but bigger!DavidL said:
I agree that we have major challenges to face but she needs to find the ability to get a hearing about an alternative. Sunak is banking a lot of credit right now that he will (have to) draw on when things get tougher. She is not.SouthamObserver said:
I am wondering how a Starmer/Sunak economic trust pairing would fare against a Johnson/Dodds one.DavidL said:I am wondering what percentage of people could pick Anneliese Dodds out of an ID parade. And what percentage would want to.
More seriously, Dodds' big moments will come in the autumn. She has definitely disappointed up to now, but I amnot sure it is that smart to write her off completely until the full scale of the economic challenges we face become visible to most voters. Right now, they are abstract unless you are paying close attention.
When people think that Rishi is doing a decent job that doesn’t seem like a value added position to challenge him from0 -
Spot on. Let's stop giving the public an easy ride. They need to grow up.FF43 said:On topic and a point I made on David's Saturday thread. A plurality of voters don't care whether Johnson is competent, has the nation's interests at heart, is principled etc. As long as that's the case, he and not Starmer will be PM.
Voters are making choices. They are choosing the charlatan. And it seems they know he is such.0 -
Just looked at the PL table. Liverpool struggling now to reach 100 points. And Man City have a MUCH better goal difference. Casts the season in a whole new light.Philip_Thompson said:
Depends if you want to keep it at zero or see it surge back up.contrarian said:It is being pointed out on twitter that the number of COVID deaths in England on July 10 according to official figures was.....zero.
Which only goes to illustrate what a pile of utterly specious b*llocks that Tram cartoon posted down thread is.
If the choice is another lockdown and financial restrictions in the future or getting back to normal with a cloth mask, then does that change things?0 -
Yep, that is fair.DavidL said:
I agree that we have major challenges to face but she needs to find the ability to get a hearing about an alternative. Sunak is banking a lot of credit right now that he will (have to) draw on when things get tougher. She is not.SouthamObserver said:
I am wondering how a Starmer/Sunak economic trust pairing would fare against a Johnson/Dodds one.DavidL said:I am wondering what percentage of people could pick Anneliese Dodds out of an ID parade. And what percentage would want to.
More seriously, Dodds' big moments will come in the autumn. She has definitely disappointed up to now, but I amnot sure it is that smart to write her off completely until the full scale of the economic challenges we face become visible to most voters. Right now, they are abstract unless you are paying close attention.
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The Government of Aragon will approve the mandatory use of face masks on Monday even in situations where social distance can be maintained, a measure that is expected to take effect on Tuesday. This guideline has already been approved in communities such as Catalonia, the Balearic Islands and Extremadura and is being studied in Andalusia, which could also be approved tomorrow.0
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This has to be the largest divergence between a leader's scores and his party in a very long time.
Such is the mess Corbyn left us with.0 -
I grew up in the era of Big DaddyAlistair said:
Much like Professional Wrestling.Charles said:
According the the Cambridge English dictionary (I know) it is old-fashioned & informal...kle4 said:
Quite so. Though I'm actually not a fan of apple pie.Charles said:
These surveys are meaningless.Nigelb said:
The assumption that paying higher taxes is going to accomplish all those things, particularly in the aftermath of an extremely deep recession, is somewhat.... optimistic.IanB2 said:GUARDIAN: Britons are prepared to pay higher taxes to turn the country into a kinder, more equal and supportive place to live after the coronavirus pandemic is over, according to new research set to be published this week. A poll carried out for the strategy consultancy BritainThinks reveals that just 12% of people want life to return to normal “exactly as it was before” once the pandemic is over.
The research shows three clear priorities are emerging: better funding for the NHS, better treatment and pay for essential workers, and an economic recovery that doesn’t just focus on London. There is also an appetite for a kinder society that prioritises better support for people struggling with mental or physical health problems, allows workers more time off with family and friends, cares about the environment and ensures high levels of employment.
Do you want to pay key workers more?
Do you want an economic recovery for everyone?
Do you want workers to have more time off?
Do you like motherhood?
How about apple pie?
No one can answer in the negative without looking like a complete heel
Also surprised at the use of wrestling lingo (unless heel also comes from other areas)2 -
Unexpectedly won? The side that regularly polled ahead over the previous decade. That posted regular poll leads during the campaign period. That had the majority of the press on its side?Charles said:
The one campaign where we know he used data scientists he unexpectedly won.Alistair said:
You can recruit all the 'actual' you want but if they are managed by a control freak with a specific world view who demands totally loyalty, zero dissent and enforced group think then you aren't going to get decent answers.Sandpit said:
They’re recruiting actual scientists.Jonathan said:
Cummings knows nothing about science. He uses pseudo scientific cliches to dress up his opinions and justify his ideological schemes.Sandpit said:
Oh no, imagine the horror of governments making decisions based on data and science.DecrepiterJohnL said:Dominic Cummings is recruiting a new team of crack data scientists who will soon prove the silent (because unpolled) majority supports Boris. This is, after all, how Brexit was won.
Much better to just ask all the PPE and liberal arts graduates how they *feel* about any given subject.
That does suggest he works well with them or has an ability to spot patterns no one else sees. I suspect the former
That one?
Unexpectedly?0 -
The economy question is the big problem for Labour, although are a significant proportion of Labour's score don't knows, or is that not possible for this question.
Either way, that has to be the focus. Of course up against a party literally chucking money around, I am not sure how that can be done.0 -
For these speculative what ifs it is a shame we don't have an example of a country where sections of that country reopened in a manner the so called experts deemed "too early" and "utterly recklessly" to compare against.contrarian said:It is being pointed out on twitter that the number of COVID deaths reported for England on July 10 according to official figures was.....zero.
Which only goes to illustrate what a pile of utterly specious b*llocks that Tram cartoon posted down thread is.
Because if their cases were now surging uncontrollably and deaths starting to tick up with hospitals at capacity despite the huge strides made in treatments since the start of the epidemic then this contrarian bollocks would look really fucking stupid.
Of course, no such near perfect counter example exists so we are left in the land of what ifs.0 -
I see Gove has said:
"British cabinet office minister Michael Gove said that people should go back to workplaces if it was necessary to “add value” and be a part of the “productive economy”, but in some cases it may be “appropriate and convenient” and work from home."
This makes much more sense than Johnson's "go back to work if you can", which I assume to have been just one of his random ad libs.
On topic, people are seeing nothing from Labour except some clips of Starmer and occasionally Ashworth. Meanwhile, gifts continue to rain down from Sunak's magic money tree. I think one of those two facts has to change before we make further progress.2 -
Johnson's popularity is plummeting partly because many tory voters are very unhappy with him.
Among the complaints are the government's weak and tepid response to the communists and anarchists of Black Lives Matter the organisation and the culture wars in general.
There are also big concerns about the dire economic situation and the huge dose of socialism that has been used to counter COVID.
I think this is filtering through to MPs, who may make their unhappiness felt through opposition to Johnson's proposed EU settlement. This is being seen by some as another Johnson dogs breakfast.
THis is going to be a horrible autumn for Johnson, one he may well not survive.2 -
Who in Liverpool is going to risk getting injured with a new season about to start and this one in the trophy cupboard? If I were Klopp, I would massively bollock anybody who gets injured playing this season.kinabalu said:
Just looked at the PL table. Liverpool struggling now to reach 100 points. And Man City have a MUCH better goal difference. Casts the season in a whole new light.Philip_Thompson said:
Depends if you want to keep it at zero or see it surge back up.contrarian said:It is being pointed out on twitter that the number of COVID deaths in England on July 10 according to official figures was.....zero.
Which only goes to illustrate what a pile of utterly specious b*llocks that Tram cartoon posted down thread is.
If the choice is another lockdown and financial restrictions in the future or getting back to normal with a cloth mask, then does that change things?
Cast the end of this season in that light.0 -
The problem isn’t the mask themselves do much as the knock on implicationsPhilip_Thompson said:
Depends if you want to keep it at zero or see it surge back up.contrarian said:It is being pointed out on twitter that the number of COVID deaths in England on July 10 according to official figures was.....zero.
Which only goes to illustrate what a pile of utterly specious b*llocks that Tram cartoon posted down thread is.
If the choice is another lockdown and financial restrictions in the future or getting back to normal with a cloth mask, then does that change things?
They have some benefit particularly in assymptomatic cases
If the cost is that people are scared to go shopping that has huge implications for many people. The government is attempting to navigate between Scylla and Charybdis
1 -
In 2019 they knew about his record but concluded Corbyn was worse.kle4 said:
It is more likely people will care about his record, but people knew his character and history in 2019 too, they knew his record. They liked it or thought it was bearable given the options. It's that which might change.noneoftheabove said:
Thats all true, but it wont be in 2024, they will care about his record by then, assuming he is the candidate.FF43 said:On topic and a point I made on David's Saturday thread. A plurality of voters don't care whether Johnson is competent, has the nation's interests at heart, is principled etc. As long as that's the case, he and not Starmer will be PM.
Voters are making choices. They are choosing the charlatan. And it seems they know he is such.
That is not the case right now and is unlikely to be the case next time around, hence the reduced polling lead.
I mentioned yesterday, Johnson is deeply, deeply unpopular in London and his legacy is that the Tories there are totally irrelevant. The one place they seem to keep losing ground is London.
Obviously has no impact on a GE - but I wonder if Johnson will be as unpopular as he in in London after he left office (as was the case in London), or during.0 -
Alistair said:
For these speculative what ifs it is a shame we don't have an example of a country where sections of that country reopened in a manner the so called experts deemed "too early" and "utterly recklessly" to compare against.contrarian said:It is being pointed out on twitter that the number of COVID deaths reported for England on July 10 according to official figures was.....zero.
Which only goes to illustrate what a pile of utterly specious b*llocks that Tram cartoon posted down thread is.
Because if their cases were now surging uncontrollably and deaths starting to tick up with hospitals at capacity despite the huge strides made in treatments since the start of the epidemic then this contrarian bollocks would look really fucking stupid.
Of course, no such near perfect counter example exists so we are left in the land of what ifs.
0 -
The one where bettors made a lot of money by betting against the political consensus. Yep.Alistair said:
Unexpectedly won? The side that regularly polled ahead over the previous decade. That posted regular poll leads during the campaign period. That had the majority of the press on its side?Charles said:
The one campaign where we know he used data scientists he unexpectedly won.Alistair said:
You can recruit all the 'actual' you want but if they are managed by a control freak with a specific world view who demands totally loyalty, zero dissent and enforced group think then you aren't going to get decent answers.Sandpit said:
They’re recruiting actual scientists.Jonathan said:
Cummings knows nothing about science. He uses pseudo scientific cliches to dress up his opinions and justify his ideological schemes.Sandpit said:
Oh no, imagine the horror of governments making decisions based on data and science.DecrepiterJohnL said:Dominic Cummings is recruiting a new team of crack data scientists who will soon prove the silent (because unpolled) majority supports Boris. This is, after all, how Brexit was won.
Much better to just ask all the PPE and liberal arts graduates how they *feel* about any given subject.
That does suggest he works well with them or has an ability to spot patterns no one else sees. I suspect the former
That one?
Unexpectedly?
Hindsight is a wonderful thing my friend1 -
It's the classic left-wing response - those nasty voters going blue.kinabalu said:
Spot on. Let's stop giving the public an easy ride. They need to grow up.FF43 said:On topic and a point I made on David's Saturday thread. A plurality of voters don't care whether Johnson is competent, has the nation's interests at heart, is principled etc. As long as that's the case, he and not Starmer will be PM.
Voters are making choices. They are choosing the charlatan. And it seems they know he is such.2 -
I am going to be fascinated to see what happens with Brexit. I remain unconvinced he can bring something back that will keep all his voters happy.contrarian said:Johnson's popularity is plummeting partly because many tory voters are very unhappy with him.
Among the complaints are the government's weak and tepid response to the communists and anarchists of Black Lives Matter the organisation and the culture wars in general.
There are also big concerns about the dire economic situation and the huge dose of socialism that has been used to counter COVID.
I think this is filtering through to MPs, who may make their unhappiness felt through opposition to Johnson's proposed EU settlement. This is being seen by some as another Johnson dogs breakfast.
THis is going to be a horrible autumn for Johnson, one he may well not survive.
In 2019 he managed - again - to sell Brexit as an abstract concept and that's how he got all the Brexit voters on his side. We've seen through polling time and time again, when Brexit is defined, its support drops off massively. He's going to have to define it now - and that will be all on him.1 -
Victoria? (Albeit not a country)Alistair said:
For these speculative what ifs it is a shame we don't have an example of a country where sections of that country reopened in a manner the so called experts deemed "too early" and "utterly recklessly" to compare against.contrarian said:It is being pointed out on twitter that the number of COVID deaths reported for England on July 10 according to official figures was.....zero.
Which only goes to illustrate what a pile of utterly specious b*llocks that Tram cartoon posted down thread is.
Because if their cases were now surging uncontrollably and deaths starting to tick up with hospitals at capacity despite the huge strides made in treatments since the start of the epidemic then this contrarian bollocks would look really fucking stupid.
Of course, no such near perfect counter example exists so we are left in the land of what ifs.
I think there’s a lot of luck with this virus0 -
contrarian said:
That has already happened. Many 'experts' said that the measures Johnson did take to re-open the economy were 'too early' . Second spike predictions have been going on since the very beginning of restriction easing.Alistair said:
For these speculative what ifs it is a shame we don't have an example of a country where sections of that country reopened in a manner the so called experts deemed "too early" and "utterly recklessly" to compare against.contrarian said:It is being pointed out on twitter that the number of COVID deaths reported for England on July 10 according to official figures was.....zero.
Which only goes to illustrate what a pile of utterly specious b*llocks that Tram cartoon posted down thread is.
Because if their cases were now surging uncontrollably and deaths starting to tick up with hospitals at capacity despite the huge strides made in treatments since the start of the epidemic then this contrarian bollocks would look really fucking stupid.
Of course, no such near perfect counter example exists so we are left in the land of what ifs.
Meanwhile, weeks later, deaths from COVID are now close to zero.
Independent of lockdown. Just as the esteemed Doctor Gupta and the Oxford team predicted.0 -
You're the only one who seems to hold actual hatred for Sunak and using this term that he is a snake. Perhaps he is, but what has he done to upset you so much?Dura_Ace said:
Knifing the Snake should be Johson's absolute top priority if he has any sense.IanB2 said:Rawnsley: Is there room at the top of Conservative politics for two people known by their first names?
[Rishi's] sleekness, the ready smile and an aura of polished competence make a striking contrast with the crumpled, jowly and often scowly prime minister. Mr Johnson’s rhetorical defaults are jokiness, personal abuse, boosterism and bluster. His chancellor is an elegant phrase-maker.
Officialdom knows who it prefers. Senior civil servants shudder at what one calls the “utter dysfunctionality” of the regime at Number 10.
The rise of Rishi is being lubricated by a personal marketing operation of a kind never before employed by a chancellor.
Envy is a powerful driver of political behaviour. Boris Johnson would not be human – he certainly would not be Boris Johnson – if he were entirely relaxed about the sensational ascent of the younger man next door.0 -
Ditto United States of America, cases and deaths basically zero.contrarian said:
That has already happened. Many 'experts' said that the measures Johnson did take to re-open the economy were 'too early' . Second spike predictions have been going on since the very beginning of restriction easing.Alistair said:
For these speculative what ifs it is a shame we don't have an example of a country where sections of that country reopened in a manner the so called experts deemed "too early" and "utterly recklessly" to compare against.contrarian said:It is being pointed out on twitter that the number of COVID deaths reported for England on July 10 according to official figures was.....zero.
Which only goes to illustrate what a pile of utterly specious b*llocks that Tram cartoon posted down thread is.
Because if their cases were now surging uncontrollably and deaths starting to tick up with hospitals at capacity despite the huge strides made in treatments since the start of the epidemic then this contrarian bollocks would look really fucking stupid.
Of course, no such near perfect counter example exists so we are left in the land of what ifs.
Meanwhile, weeks later, deaths from COVID are now close to zero.0 -
Yeah this is the problem Labour has. If we tell them to just fuck off and vote Tory, don't be surprised when they do.felix said:
It's the classic left-wing response - those nasty voters going blue.kinabalu said:
Spot on. Let's stop giving the public an easy ride. They need to grow up.FF43 said:On topic and a point I made on David's Saturday thread. A plurality of voters don't care whether Johnson is competent, has the nation's interests at heart, is principled etc. As long as that's the case, he and not Starmer will be PM.
Voters are making choices. They are choosing the charlatan. And it seems they know he is such.
We really need to get over this "voters are evil, the media corrupts them" crap. Start winning elections again by figuring out what people want.3 -
The Liverpool fans are going to be totally distraught at a couple of off results, having wrapped up the title with seven games to spare and with 30 wins so far this season.kinabalu said:
Just looked at the PL table. Liverpool struggling now to reach 100 points. And Man City have a MUCH better goal difference. Casts the season in a whole new light.Philip_Thompson said:
Depends if you want to keep it at zero or see it surge back up.contrarian said:It is being pointed out on twitter that the number of COVID deaths in England on July 10 according to official figures was.....zero.
Which only goes to illustrate what a pile of utterly specious b*llocks that Tram cartoon posted down thread is.
If the choice is another lockdown and financial restrictions in the future or getting back to normal with a cloth mask, then does that change things?1 -
It really doesn't.kinabalu said:
Just looked at the PL table. Liverpool struggling now to reach 100 points. And Man City have a MUCH better goal difference. Casts the season in a whole new light.Philip_Thompson said:
Depends if you want to keep it at zero or see it surge back up.contrarian said:It is being pointed out on twitter that the number of COVID deaths in England on July 10 according to official figures was.....zero.
Which only goes to illustrate what a pile of utterly specious b*llocks that Tram cartoon posted down thread is.
If the choice is another lockdown and financial restrictions in the future or getting back to normal with a cloth mask, then does that change things?0 -
It's not hindsight to observe that most of the polling in the lead up to referendum day indicated that Leave would win.Charles said:
The one where bettors made a lot of money by betting against the political consensus. Yep.Alistair said:
Unexpectedly won? The side that regularly polled ahead over the previous decade. That posted regular poll leads during the campaign period. That had the majority of the press on its side?Charles said:
The one campaign where we know he used data scientists he unexpectedly won.Alistair said:
You can recruit all the 'actual' you want but if they are managed by a control freak with a specific world view who demands totally loyalty, zero dissent and enforced group think then you aren't going to get decent answers.Sandpit said:
They’re recruiting actual scientists.Jonathan said:
Cummings knows nothing about science. He uses pseudo scientific cliches to dress up his opinions and justify his ideological schemes.Sandpit said:
Oh no, imagine the horror of governments making decisions based on data and science.DecrepiterJohnL said:Dominic Cummings is recruiting a new team of crack data scientists who will soon prove the silent (because unpolled) majority supports Boris. This is, after all, how Brexit was won.
Much better to just ask all the PPE and liberal arts graduates how they *feel* about any given subject.
That does suggest he works well with them or has an ability to spot patterns no one else sees. I suspect the former
That one?
Unexpectedly?
Hindsight is a wonderful thing my friend
0 -
That’s a little bit thoughtless terminology given how close he came to “not surviving” earlier this yearcontrarian said:Johnson's popularity is plummeting partly because many tory voters are very unhappy with him.
Among the complaints are the government's weak and tepid response to the communists and anarchists of Black Lives Matter the organisation and the culture wars in general.
There are also big concerns about the dire economic situation and the huge dose of socialism that has been used to counter COVID.
I think this is filtering through to MPs, who may make their unhappiness felt through opposition to Johnson's proposed EU settlement. This is being seen by some as another Johnson dogs breakfast.
THis is going to be a horrible autumn for Johnson, one he may well not survive.0 -
City were not bothered about the title this year. For them it's all about the CL. For Liverpool, the PL was all.MarqueeMark said:
Who in Liverpool is going to risk getting injured with a new season about to start and this one in the trophy cupboard? If I were Klopp, I would massively bollock anybody who gets injured playing this season.kinabalu said:
Just looked at the PL table. Liverpool struggling now to reach 100 points. And Man City have a MUCH better goal difference. Casts the season in a whole new light.Philip_Thompson said:
Depends if you want to keep it at zero or see it surge back up.contrarian said:It is being pointed out on twitter that the number of COVID deaths in England on July 10 according to official figures was.....zero.
Which only goes to illustrate what a pile of utterly specious b*llocks that Tram cartoon posted down thread is.
If the choice is another lockdown and financial restrictions in the future or getting back to normal with a cloth mask, then does that change things?
Cast the end of this season in that light.
Last season went wrong for both clubs. City won the PL when they yearned for the CL. Liverpool won the CL when they yearned for the PL. Both were focused 100% on reversing the situation this time.
This is why at the start of the season I tipped the double of Liverpool for the title and Man City for the CL.
I still like that.0 -
I don’t think that many people really care. One you get a free trade deal the issue will subside from public viewCorrectHorseBattery said:
I am going to be fascinated to see what happens with Brexit. I remain unconvinced he can bring something back that will keep all his voters happy.contrarian said:Johnson's popularity is plummeting partly because many tory voters are very unhappy with him.
Among the complaints are the government's weak and tepid response to the communists and anarchists of Black Lives Matter the organisation and the culture wars in general.
There are also big concerns about the dire economic situation and the huge dose of socialism that has been used to counter COVID.
I think this is filtering through to MPs, who may make their unhappiness felt through opposition to Johnson's proposed EU settlement. This is being seen by some as another Johnson dogs breakfast.
THis is going to be a horrible autumn for Johnson, one he may well not survive.
In 2019 he managed - again - to sell Brexit as an abstract concept and that's how he got all the Brexit voters on his side. We've seen through polling time and time again, when Brexit is defined, its support drops off massively. He's going to have to define it now - and that will be all on him.0 -
It does!kle4 said:
It really doesn't.kinabalu said:
Just looked at the PL table. Liverpool struggling now to reach 100 points. And Man City have a MUCH better goal difference. Casts the season in a whole new light.Philip_Thompson said:
Depends if you want to keep it at zero or see it surge back up.contrarian said:It is being pointed out on twitter that the number of COVID deaths in England on July 10 according to official figures was.....zero.
Which only goes to illustrate what a pile of utterly specious b*llocks that Tram cartoon posted down thread is.
If the choice is another lockdown and financial restrictions in the future or getting back to normal with a cloth mask, then does that change things?0 -
He also thinks Liz Truss is a snakekle4 said:
You're the only one who seems to hold actual hatred for Sunak and using this term that he is a snake. Perhaps he is, but what has he done to upset you so much?Dura_Ace said:
Knifing the Snake should be Johson's absolute top priority if he has any sense.IanB2 said:Rawnsley: Is there room at the top of Conservative politics for two people known by their first names?
[Rishi's] sleekness, the ready smile and an aura of polished competence make a striking contrast with the crumpled, jowly and often scowly prime minister. Mr Johnson’s rhetorical defaults are jokiness, personal abuse, boosterism and bluster. His chancellor is an elegant phrase-maker.
Officialdom knows who it prefers. Senior civil servants shudder at what one calls the “utter dysfunctionality” of the regime at Number 10.
The rise of Rishi is being lubricated by a personal marketing operation of a kind never before employed by a chancellor.
Envy is a powerful driver of political behaviour. Boris Johnson would not be human – he certainly would not be Boris Johnson – if he were entirely relaxed about the sensational ascent of the younger man next door.
He’s an equal opportunity hater0 -
Trump's America has proved a very, very useful contra-indicator for Boris. It may be one reason why the voters are again cutting him a bit of slack. That - and the Leader of the Opposition taking a knee. For those not already wedded to the cause, that just looked like the sort of thing Corbyn would have done. Starmer can perhaps take some comfort that this year it wasn't happening in the spotlight of the main stage at Glasto...Alistair said:
For these speculative what ifs it is a shame we don't have an example of a country where sections of that country reopened in a manner the so called experts deemed "too early" and "utterly recklessly" to compare against.contrarian said:It is being pointed out on twitter that the number of COVID deaths reported for England on July 10 according to official figures was.....zero.
Which only goes to illustrate what a pile of utterly specious b*llocks that Tram cartoon posted down thread is.
Because if their cases were now surging uncontrollably and deaths starting to tick up with hospitals at capacity despite the huge strides made in treatments since the start of the epidemic then this contrarian bollocks would look really fucking stupid.
Of course, no such near perfect counter example exists so we are left in the land of what ifs.0 -
And yet, somehow, it came as a shock to the political and media classes.SouthamObserver said:
It's not hindsight to observe that most of the polling in the lead up to referendum day indicated that Leave would win.Charles said:
The one where bettors made a lot of money by betting against the political consensus. Yep.Alistair said:
Unexpectedly won? The side that regularly polled ahead over the previous decade. That posted regular poll leads during the campaign period. That had the majority of the press on its side?Charles said:
The one campaign where we know he used data scientists he unexpectedly won.Alistair said:
You can recruit all the 'actual' you want but if they are managed by a control freak with a specific world view who demands totally loyalty, zero dissent and enforced group think then you aren't going to get decent answers.Sandpit said:
They’re recruiting actual scientists.Jonathan said:
Cummings knows nothing about science. He uses pseudo scientific cliches to dress up his opinions and justify his ideological schemes.Sandpit said:
Oh no, imagine the horror of governments making decisions based on data and science.DecrepiterJohnL said:Dominic Cummings is recruiting a new team of crack data scientists who will soon prove the silent (because unpolled) majority supports Boris. This is, after all, how Brexit was won.
Much better to just ask all the PPE and liberal arts graduates how they *feel* about any given subject.
That does suggest he works well with them or has an ability to spot patterns no one else sees. I suspect the former
That one?
Unexpectedly?
Hindsight is a wonderful thing my friend
Expectations are not necessarily aligned with facts.
And it is *precisely* hindsight to say “oh but it was obvious” and pick out the data that proves it1 -
Maybe, but I always got the impression both Cameron and Osbourne were very happy in their roles, with Cameron the front man and Osbourne the ideas man, but Sunak is getting positive attention and is Boris comfortable with the limelight being shared, a man who prioritises his advisor over his Cabinet? Will Sunak be happy to wait for his turn as Osbourne was?MarqueeMark said:
I rather suspect with Boris-Rishi were are seeing the next Cameron-Osborne team - two politician who get on very well and a have a similar view of the world. It will serve us well for the next four years. Cameron would have been happy for Osborne to succeed him; ditto the current occupants of Downing Street.IanB2 said:Rawnsley: Is there room at the top of Conservative politics for two people known by their first names?
[Rishi's] sleekness, the ready smile and an aura of polished competence make a striking contrast with the crumpled, jowly and often scowly prime minister. Mr Johnson’s rhetorical defaults are jokiness, personal abuse, boosterism and bluster. His chancellor is an elegant phrase-maker.
Officialdom knows who it prefers. Senior civil servants shudder at what one calls the “utter dysfunctionality” of the regime at Number 10.
The rise of Rishi is being lubricated by a personal marketing operation of a kind never before employed by a chancellor.
Envy is a powerful driver of political behaviour. Boris Johnson would not be human – he certainly would not be Boris Johnson – if he were entirely relaxed about the sensational ascent of the younger man next door.
Sorry, Mr. Rawnsley. A fluff piece.0 -
I put this on a thread yesterday, from the NHS England Hospital data, long before it turned up on Twitter. It is almost certainly a reporting artefact, but interestingAlistair said:
Ditto United States of America, cases and deaths basically zero.contrarian said:
That has already happened. Many 'experts' said that the measures Johnson did take to re-open the economy were 'too early' . Second spike predictions have been going on since the very beginning of restriction easing.Alistair said:
For these speculative what ifs it is a shame we don't have an example of a country where sections of that country reopened in a manner the so called experts deemed "too early" and "utterly recklessly" to compare against.contrarian said:It is being pointed out on twitter that the number of COVID deaths reported for England on July 10 according to official figures was.....zero.
Which only goes to illustrate what a pile of utterly specious b*llocks that Tram cartoon posted down thread is.
Because if their cases were now surging uncontrollably and deaths starting to tick up with hospitals at capacity despite the huge strides made in treatments since the start of the epidemic then this contrarian bollocks would look really fucking stupid.
Of course, no such near perfect counter example exists so we are left in the land of what ifs.
Meanwhile, weeks later, deaths from COVID are now close to zero.
for context, the following is the whole data series -
2 -
But then what does Johnson have? Beyond Brexit is where to me it seems painfully obvious he doesn't have a clue what to do.Charles said:
I don’t think that many people really care. One you get a free trade deal the issue will subside from public viewCorrectHorseBattery said:
I am going to be fascinated to see what happens with Brexit. I remain unconvinced he can bring something back that will keep all his voters happy.contrarian said:Johnson's popularity is plummeting partly because many tory voters are very unhappy with him.
Among the complaints are the government's weak and tepid response to the communists and anarchists of Black Lives Matter the organisation and the culture wars in general.
There are also big concerns about the dire economic situation and the huge dose of socialism that has been used to counter COVID.
I think this is filtering through to MPs, who may make their unhappiness felt through opposition to Johnson's proposed EU settlement. This is being seen by some as another Johnson dogs breakfast.
THis is going to be a horrible autumn for Johnson, one he may well not survive.
In 2019 he managed - again - to sell Brexit as an abstract concept and that's how he got all the Brexit voters on his side. We've seen through polling time and time again, when Brexit is defined, its support drops off massively. He's going to have to define it now - and that will be all on him.0 -
If this leads to lower prices it could be a good thing.CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
My post at 9.51 explains.Sandpit said:
The Liverpool fans are going to be totally distraught at a couple of off results, having wrapped up the title with seven games to spare and with 30 wins so far this season.kinabalu said:
Just looked at the PL table. Liverpool struggling now to reach 100 points. And Man City have a MUCH better goal difference. Casts the season in a whole new light.Philip_Thompson said:
Depends if you want to keep it at zero or see it surge back up.contrarian said:It is being pointed out on twitter that the number of COVID deaths in England on July 10 according to official figures was.....zero.
Which only goes to illustrate what a pile of utterly specious b*llocks that Tram cartoon posted down thread is.
If the choice is another lockdown and financial restrictions in the future or getting back to normal with a cloth mask, then does that change things?
My main F1 season bets btw -
Bought Bot, Vest, Vett at an aggregate 80 on the WDC index.
It makes up 60/40/30/20/10/5 for 1st to 6th.
Thus if my 3 drivers finish 2nd, 3rd, 5th I am flat.0 -
A Government-sanctioned review of the railways by Keith Williams, the former British Airways boss, billed as the most comprehensive analysis since privatisation, “may not see the light of day,” an industry source said.
Lol, how many times has it been delayed now? How much did the review cost?0 -
He’s fundamentally a social liberal who’s happy to spend government money.CorrectHorseBattery said:
But then what does Johnson have? Beyond Brexit is where to me it seems painfully obvious he doesn't have a clue what to do.Charles said:
I don’t think that many people really care. One you get a free trade deal the issue will subside from public viewCorrectHorseBattery said:
I am going to be fascinated to see what happens with Brexit. I remain unconvinced he can bring something back that will keep all his voters happy.contrarian said:Johnson's popularity is plummeting partly because many tory voters are very unhappy with him.
Among the complaints are the government's weak and tepid response to the communists and anarchists of Black Lives Matter the organisation and the culture wars in general.
There are also big concerns about the dire economic situation and the huge dose of socialism that has been used to counter COVID.
I think this is filtering through to MPs, who may make their unhappiness felt through opposition to Johnson's proposed EU settlement. This is being seen by some as another Johnson dogs breakfast.
THis is going to be a horrible autumn for Johnson, one he may well not survive.
In 2019 he managed - again - to sell Brexit as an abstract concept and that's how he got all the Brexit voters on his side. We've seen through polling time and time again, when Brexit is defined, its support drops off massively. He's going to have to define it now - and that will be all on him.
But why should governments have to *do* stuff? I am a great fan of masterly inactivity3 -
As things stand I don't think Johnson will lead the Tories into the next election.contrarian said:Johnson's popularity is plummeting partly because many tory voters are very unhappy with him.
Among the complaints are the government's weak and tepid response to the communists and anarchists of Black Lives Matter the organisation and the culture wars in general.
There are also big concerns about the dire economic situation and the huge dose of socialism that has been used to counter COVID.
I think this is filtering through to MPs, who may make their unhappiness felt through opposition to Johnson's proposed EU settlement. This is being seen by some as another Johnson dogs breakfast.
THis is going to be a horrible autumn for Johnson, one he may well not survive.1 -
The breathless US media reporting notwithstanding, the graphs I have read show that US daily reported deaths from Corona peaked in early May at 2,700 or so.Malmesbury said:
I put this on a thread yesterday, from the NHS England Hospital data, long before it turned up on Twitter. It is almost certainly a reporting artefact, but interestingAlistair said:
Ditto United States of America, cases and deaths basically zero.contrarian said:
That has already happened. Many 'experts' said that the measures Johnson did take to re-open the economy were 'too early' . Second spike predictions have been going on since the very beginning of restriction easing.Alistair said:
For these speculative what ifs it is a shame we don't have an example of a country where sections of that country reopened in a manner the so called experts deemed "too early" and "utterly recklessly" to compare against.contrarian said:It is being pointed out on twitter that the number of COVID deaths reported for England on July 10 according to official figures was.....zero.
Which only goes to illustrate what a pile of utterly specious b*llocks that Tram cartoon posted down thread is.
Because if their cases were now surging uncontrollably and deaths starting to tick up with hospitals at capacity despite the huge strides made in treatments since the start of the epidemic then this contrarian bollocks would look really fucking stupid.
Of course, no such near perfect counter example exists so we are left in the land of what ifs.
Meanwhile, weeks later, deaths from COVID are now close to zero.
for context, the following is the whole data series -
On July 11 they were at 729.
0 -
Seems to me if the train companies can't make a profit and they're going to go bust, let them fail and the Government will run the lines.
That's how capitalism works.0
