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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The latest Opinium poll has Starmer beating Johnson on thirteen different measures yet still the Tories retain their 4% voting lead
The above chart from Opinium sets out the responses to a wide range of match-ups between Starmer and Johnson and as can be seen these sre not good for the current incumbent at Number 10.
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First! Perhaps like Starmer.
Let's hope Bottas wins and Norris is 2nd.
Edited extra bit: a couple more tips and some thoughts are up here: https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2020/07/styrian-grand-prix-pre-race-2020.html
BBC News Channel today, Sunday 12th July at 10:30am and 4:30pm.
This example may help to explain why the Labour Party polling is less encouraging than than that for preferences between just the two leaders.
When canvassing I used to find that people were very reluctant to admit that they voted Labour probably because of embarrassment, in telephone polls the same thing is likely to occur. But it shouldn't happen in online polls.
On leadership issues, Sir Keir hasn't made any real mistakes yet, probably because he hasn't done anything much at all, except he's started to deal with antisemitism, he's still got a mountain to climb there but he won't lose any points with normal people if he deals with that issue robustly.
Voters are making choices. They are choosing the charlatan. And it seems they know he is such.
What must be kept ever in mind, however, is that in every case, the figures are first put down by a village watchman, and he puts down anything he damn well pleases.
Much better to just ask all the PPE and liberal arts graduates how they *feel* about any given subject.
Why this police-free protest zone ultimately failed?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53218448
So are people, now I think on it.
Tricky.
Also surprised at the use of wrestling lingo (unless heel also comes from other areas)
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1282218738922803200
It’s all ego and pseudo scientific window dressing.
Four months after Corbyn, Tory hubris, arrogance and incompetence have given Labour a lift because the party has a credible leader. But Labour will have to start doing some heavy lifting itself at some point. Starmer cannot do it alone. The party as a whole has spent years losing the trust of key demographics. Voters will need to see real and sustained evidence of top to bottom change before Labour starts leading in the polls.
More seriously, Dodds' big moments will come in the autumn. She has definitely disappointed up to now, but I amnot sure it is that smart to write her off completely until the full scale of the economic challenges we face become visible to most voters. Right now, they are abstract unless you are paying close attention.
You decide where Charles is more likely to find his inspiration.
But also always worth remembering that "lies, damned lies and statistics" is just as applicable to data science as it is to, well, statistics.
[Rishi's] sleekness, the ready smile and an aura of polished competence make a striking contrast with the crumpled, jowly and often scowly prime minister. Mr Johnson’s rhetorical defaults are jokiness, personal abuse, boosterism and bluster. His chancellor is an elegant phrase-maker.
Officialdom knows who it prefers. Senior civil servants shudder at what one calls the “utter dysfunctionality” of the regime at Number 10.
The rise of Rishi is being lubricated by a personal marketing operation of a kind never before employed by a chancellor.
Envy is a powerful driver of political behaviour. Boris Johnson would not be human – he certainly would not be Boris Johnson – if he were entirely relaxed about the sensational ascent of the younger man next door.
Somebody still cares what Gordon Brown thinks or thought a decade ago.
It's probably not possible to eradicate CV19, like the flue it's probably going to come and go each winter and unfortunately will finish off some older people.
It would be one thing to wear masks for a month or two then go back to normal, but at present it will make almost no difference given there is almost no disease in circulation. I therefore fear that our Lords and masters intend lots of these measures for the medium to long term - hence that hateful phrase "new normal". This is what all right thinking people should be fighting against - wrecking our way of life in the long term because of a disease which doesn't pose a significant risk to most people is madness.
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/07/04/national/science-health/japans-history-wearing-masks-coronavirus/
Sorry, Mr. Rawnsley. A fluff piece.
Which only goes to illustrate what a pile of utterly specious b*llocks that Tram cartoon posted down thread is.
That does suggest he works well with them or has an ability to spot patterns no one else sees. I suspect the former
If the choice is another lockdown and financial restrictions in the future or getting back to normal with a cloth mask, then does that change things?
When people think that Rishi is doing a decent job that doesn’t seem like a value added position to challenge him from
Such is the mess Corbyn left us with.
That one?
Unexpectedly?
Either way, that has to be the focus. Of course up against a party literally chucking money around, I am not sure how that can be done.
Because if their cases were now surging uncontrollably and deaths starting to tick up with hospitals at capacity despite the huge strides made in treatments since the start of the epidemic then this contrarian bollocks would look really fucking stupid.
Of course, no such near perfect counter example exists so we are left in the land of what ifs.
"British cabinet office minister Michael Gove said that people should go back to workplaces if it was necessary to “add value” and be a part of the “productive economy”, but in some cases it may be “appropriate and convenient” and work from home."
This makes much more sense than Johnson's "go back to work if you can", which I assume to have been just one of his random ad libs.
On topic, people are seeing nothing from Labour except some clips of Starmer and occasionally Ashworth. Meanwhile, gifts continue to rain down from Sunak's magic money tree. I think one of those two facts has to change before we make further progress.
Among the complaints are the government's weak and tepid response to the communists and anarchists of Black Lives Matter the organisation and the culture wars in general.
There are also big concerns about the dire economic situation and the huge dose of socialism that has been used to counter COVID.
I think this is filtering through to MPs, who may make their unhappiness felt through opposition to Johnson's proposed EU settlement. This is being seen by some as another Johnson dogs breakfast.
THis is going to be a horrible autumn for Johnson, one he may well not survive.
Cast the end of this season in that light.
They have some benefit particularly in assymptomatic cases
If the cost is that people are scared to go shopping that has huge implications for many people. The government is attempting to navigate between Scylla and Charybdis
That is not the case right now and is unlikely to be the case next time around, hence the reduced polling lead.
I mentioned yesterday, Johnson is deeply, deeply unpopular in London and his legacy is that the Tories there are totally irrelevant. The one place they seem to keep losing ground is London.
Obviously has no impact on a GE - but I wonder if Johnson will be as unpopular as he in in London after he left office (as was the case in London), or during.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing my friend
In 2019 he managed - again - to sell Brexit as an abstract concept and that's how he got all the Brexit voters on his side. We've seen through polling time and time again, when Brexit is defined, its support drops off massively. He's going to have to define it now - and that will be all on him.
I think there’s a lot of luck with this virus
We really need to get over this "voters are evil, the media corrupts them" crap. Start winning elections again by figuring out what people want.
Last season went wrong for both clubs. City won the PL when they yearned for the CL. Liverpool won the CL when they yearned for the PL. Both were focused 100% on reversing the situation this time.
This is why at the start of the season I tipped the double of Liverpool for the title and Man City for the CL.
I still like that.
He’s an equal opportunity hater
Expectations are not necessarily aligned with facts.
And it is *precisely* hindsight to say “oh but it was obvious” and pick out the data that proves it
for context, the following is the whole data series -
Lol, how many times has it been delayed now? How much did the review cost?
My main F1 season bets btw -
Bought Bot, Vest, Vett at an aggregate 80 on the WDC index.
It makes up 60/40/30/20/10/5 for 1st to 6th.
Thus if my 3 drivers finish 2nd, 3rd, 5th I am flat.
But why should governments have to *do* stuff? I am a great fan of masterly inactivity
On July 11 they were at 729.
That's how capitalism works.