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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Across all pollsters the Tories are retaining a clear lead

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited July 2020 in General
imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Across all pollsters the Tories are retaining a clear lead

One of the oddest features of current next general election polling is how little there is of it at the moment. The main pollsters of yesteryear, ICM and Populus are not heard of much in this context and even YouGov has only been issuing new polls every few weeks. The last published survey from them finalised its fieldwork on June 12th – which is getting on for a month ago.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Why?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    Sorry to go off topic right off the bat, but this is a good article on where Biden's vote is coming from within the party, which might impact his Veep selection:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/07/07/yougov_polling_biden_skeptics_are_moderate_democrats_143640.html
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,199
    edited July 2020
    On approval ratings Sir Keir Starmer is leading leader approval ratings, which on past performance Labour will win the most votes in a general election held tomorrow.

    It feels a bit 2015 redux at the moment, the supplementaries are indicating Sir Keir is much better than Boris Johnson.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    FPT but relevant to this one too.
    TOPPING said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    contrarian said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    contrarian said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Contrarian, indeed.

    Short term flitting about will have short (and increasingly shorter) results whilst long term losing the respect of everyone with a memory longer than a goldfish.

    He should take the disease excuse and jump.

    But he won't. Not until his claws are prised from the precious.

    In the end, somebody somewhere is going to have to pay for the explosion of interventionism we have seen in recent months. Big time. Enormous time.

    There will have to either be huge spending cuts or huge tax rises. Possibly both. We just can't live like this. There is no new normal.

    I'd rather have tax cuts.
    Wouldn't we all. Seriously, who is going to pay? who is going to pay for it all? the untold billions sunak is spending to try to keep Johnson in everyone's good books?
    Nobody.

    We are printing money and what we are borrowing is at effectively 0% interest. It's not going to be paid back and there's no interest on it either.

    In the future the budget will need balancing again but for now saving the economy is the priority not taxes.
    FREE MONEY!

    Yay us!
    Indeed. We are very fortunate that Osborne and co fixed the roof while the sun was shining. ☀️
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    For Nabavi, fpt

    There is a theory as to why some countries/regions are getting rebounds in cases, whereas others, behaving identically, are not.

    Take two as an example. Israel and Denmark.

    They are both affluent, advanced countries. They have similar sized populations and similar population density. Both have good health care. Both flattened the curve early, then did unlockdown

    Israel reported 522 new cases today.

    Denmark reported.... 10.

    So what's happening? The theory is that it's aircon.

    Israel is a hot country in summer and it's often much more comfortable to be inside during the heat of the day. Down in the south - Eilat, the Negev it is unbearable and you HAVE to get inside for aircon.

    Denmark has cool summers like ours, they barely need aircon. Few places use it.

    Aircon is probably spreading this. Aircon explains (in part) the surge in the southern USA as the weather has really warmed up.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,279
    The polls are about where I would expect. Starmer has successfully improved the Labour Leadership position but I would expect it to be a while before he improves the Party's standing, if he ever does.

    Of course Boris can help, and so far has proved fairly amenable, but long way to go.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    I believe we will see polling parity this year. Starmer has reduced a 20 point lead to the single digits in a few months.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,327
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On approval ratings Sir Keir Starmer is leading leader approval ratings, which on past performance Labour will win the most votes in a general election held tomorrow.

    It feels a bit 2015 redux at the moment, the supplementaries are indicating Sir Keir is much better than Boris Johnson.

    So what's causing the differential?

    A time lag effect?

    Something causing a lot of hesitation among switchers? If so- what?
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    It doesn't help Starmer that he is surrounded by invisible mediocrities.

    His Shadow Cabinet is as bad as Corbyn's.

    Dodds the Shadow Chancellor? FFS.

    Starmer is doing OK but his team selection is dreck
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,881
    edited July 2020
    @LadyG My sense is that it's overused. The idea of turning it off will have never crossed many minds even in mildly warm places. My anecdotal experience is China, about 15 years ago. Never appreciated that aircon was (I think) the global norm for shops and we're a bit of an outlier I think here.
    I've heard you're a well travelled lady. What do you reckon ?
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 3,887
    LadyG said:

    For Nabavi, fpt

    There is a theory as to why some countries/regions are getting rebounds in cases, whereas others, behaving identically, are not.

    Take two as an example. Israel and Denmark.

    They are both affluent, advanced countries. They have similar sized populations and similar population density. Both have good health care. Both flattened the curve early, then did unlockdown

    Israel reported 522 new cases today.

    Denmark reported.... 10.

    So what's happening? The theory is that it's aircon.

    Israel is a hot country in summer and it's often much more comfortable to be inside during the heat of the day. Down in the south - Eilat, the Negev it is unbearable and you HAVE to get inside for aircon.

    Denmark has cool summers like ours, they barely need aircon. Few places use it.

    Aircon is probably spreading this. Aircon explains (in part) the surge in the southern USA as the weather has really warmed up.

    Or simply the fact that when it is uncomfortable to be outside (too cold or too hot) people tend to spend more time inside in close proximity to others.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    Pulpstar said:

    @LadyG My sense is that it's overused. The idea of turning it off will have never crossed many minds even in mildly warm places. My anecdotal experience is China, about 15 years ago. Never appreciated that aircon was (I think) the global norm for shops and we're a bit of an outlier I think here.

    Yes. The counter-example to my theory is East Asia.

    Air-con is ubiquitous in Thailand, Hong Kong, Japan, where they have stinking hot humidity, but the virus is dormant there.

    But I am still sure it is a vector. It is recycled air. It's the perfect way to infect whole rooms of people.

  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    I think it was Matt Goodwin who pointed out that though Starmer is doing well, in the 'are labour ready for government?' category they are streets behind.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,538
    LadyG said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @LadyG My sense is that it's overused. The idea of turning it off will have never crossed many minds even in mildly warm places. My anecdotal experience is China, about 15 years ago. Never appreciated that aircon was (I think) the global norm for shops and we're a bit of an outlier I think here.

    Yes. The counter-example to my theory is East Asia.

    Air-con is ubiquitous in Thailand, Hong Kong, Japan, where they have stinking hot humidity, but the virus is dormant there.

    But I am still sure it is a vector. It is recycled air. It's the perfect way to infect whole rooms of people.

    Masks ...

    IIRC therr was a study of infection in a THai (?) restaurant which pinned down the air con unit's intake of infected air and spread it to part (only) of the room. The paper had very nice graphics but I cannot remember where it was!
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    LadyG said:

    It doesn't help Starmer that he is surrounded by invisible mediocrities.

    His Shadow Cabinet is as bad as Corbyn's.

    Dodds the Shadow Chancellor? FFS.

    Starmer is doing OK but his team selection is dreck

    The Tory cabinet line up is piss poor - only Sunak shines
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564
    edited July 2020
    contrarian said:

    I think it was Matt Goodwin who pointed out that though Starmer is doing well, in the 'are labour ready for government?' category they are streets behind.

    I've never been very clear what that means. I don't think it is very quantifiable. Most of us don't know who many secretaries of state are, let alone their shadows, so in terms of being ready for government I have no idea.

    I know Starmer looks like he was cast in a tv show to play a Prime Minister - vaguely distinguished looking older white man.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,549
    FPT:
    MaxPB said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    I think they're wrong:

    https://twitter.com/devisridhar/status/1280497839999721472?s=20

    I just don't see how that's remotely possible without the economy being set back 20 years. It's sad that no one is challenging this bullshit. They put these releases out and people just seem to accept it as something that is true.
    The worst is Devi Sridhar who advises Sturgeon.

    I love the way they write:

    Elimination
    Reduction to zero new infections spread among people living in a country and the presence of the measures necessary to prevent or deal with imported cases and associated spread from new arrivals (e.g. New Zealand).


    Without spelling out what that would entail:

    Entry to New Zealand
    The New Zealand border is currently closed to almost all arrivals.

    https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/new-zealand/entry-requirements

    The New Zealand border closed on the 19th of March - 110 days ago.

    If they are recommending that they should spell it out.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    LadyG said:

    For Nabavi, fpt

    There is a theory as to why some countries/regions are getting rebounds in cases, whereas others, behaving identically, are not.

    Take two as an example. Israel and Denmark.

    They are both affluent, advanced countries. They have similar sized populations and similar population density. Both have good health care. Both flattened the curve early, then did unlockdown

    Israel reported 522 new cases today.

    Denmark reported.... 10.

    So what's happening? The theory is that it's aircon.

    Israel is a hot country in summer and it's often much more comfortable to be inside during the heat of the day. Down in the south - Eilat, the Negev it is unbearable and you HAVE to get inside for aircon.

    Denmark has cool summers like ours, they barely need aircon. Few places use it.

    Aircon is probably spreading this. Aircon explains (in part) the surge in the southern USA as the weather has really warmed up.

    Or simply the fact that when it is uncomfortable to be outside (too cold or too hot) people tend to spend more time inside in close proximity to others.
    Indeed, that could be it, too.

    But I hope you are wrong because it means that Britain is fecked when Autumn comes and we all crowd into the pubs to escape the rain
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,752
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On approval ratings Sir Keir Starmer is leading leader approval ratings, which on past performance Labour will win the most votes in a general election held tomorrow.

    It feels a bit 2015 redux at the moment, the supplementaries are indicating Sir Keir is much better than Boris Johnson.

    Starmer would make a decent senior Civil Servant, but on the leadership spectrum he's Ming Campbells younger brother
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,327
    kle4 said:

    contrarian said:

    I think it was Matt Goodwin who pointed out that though Starmer is doing well, in the 'are labour ready for government?' category they are streets behind.

    I've never been very clear what that means. I don't think it is very quantifiable. Most of us don't know who many secretaries of state are, let alone their shadows, so in terms of being ready for government I have no idea.

    I know Starmer looks like he was cast in a tv show to play a Prime Minister - vaguely distinguished looking older white man.
    It's clearly implicit for *something*. It might be that, thanks to the crisis, the only Shadow Cabinet members people have heard of are SKS and MilliEd. But as OGH points out, most of the actual Cabinet are on the scale of nonentity - actively awful.

    Something is causing the gap- whoever works it out wins.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564
    Pulpstar said:

    LadyG said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Another indication of how hard it is to emerge from lockdown:

    Israel’s public health director has quit amid a spike in new coronavirus cases, saying the country had been too hasty to reopen its economy and had lost its way in dealing with the pandemic.

    Reuters reports that Siegal Sadetzki, an epidemiologist, announced her resignation a day after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet reimposed a series of restrictions, including the closure of bars, gyms and event halls.

    After a national lockdown in April, Israel flattened the coronavirus infection curve in May to about 20 new cases a day.

    But since the reopening of schools and many businesses two months ago, the number of cases has soared, reaching more than 1,000 a day last week. The Health Ministry said it expected the number of patients on ventilators - now 32 - to reach 2,000.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/jul/07/coronavirus-live-news-boris-johnson-accuses-care-homes-over-deaths-as-us-cases-near-3m

    There is a theory as to why some countries/regions are getting rebounds in cases, whereas others, behaving identically, are not.

    Take two as an example. Israel and Denmark.

    They are both affluent, advanced countries. They have similar sized populations and similar population density. Both have good health care. Both flattened the curve early, then did unlockdown

    Israel reported 522 new cases today.

    Denmark reported.... 10.

    So what's happening? The theory is that it's aircon.

    Israel is a hot country in summer and it's often much more comfortable to be inside during the heat of the day. Down in the south - Eilat, the Negev it is unbearable and you HAVE to get inside for aircon.

    Denmark has cool summers like ours, they barely need aircon. Few places use it.

    Aircon is probably spreading this. Aircon explains (in part) the surge in the southern USA as the weather has really warmed up.

    Everywhere I've been with aircon, it's always been on 24-7. Even when I've questioned whether it's needed. I think people in places where it's widespread simply have an expectation that a shop should be 19 C whenever they step inside, even if it's 19 C outside the aircon will still be going. Now might be impractical in say Arizona heatwave to turn it off but if it's below 30 outside is it really needed.

    Keeping the aircon on (And on fiercely too) is a religion that doesn't seem to be examined too deeply elsewhere in the world. It's also atrocious for climate change as an aside. People lived happily before it was invented.

    Fortunately we've never really had it or had much of a need for it in the UK.
    Happily, but sweatily. But then I think we are no longer supposed to sweat either.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,549
    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1280523866721435648?s=20
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,199
    edited July 2020
    Stuartinromford said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On approval ratings Sir Keir Starmer is leading leader approval ratings, which on past performance Labour will win the most votes in a general election held tomorrow.

    It feels a bit 2015 redux at the moment, the supplementaries are indicating Sir Keir is much better than Boris Johnson.

    So what's causing the differential?

    A time lag effect?

    Something causing a lot of hesitation among switchers? If so- what?
    My theory (as we saw in 2006-2010) is that the LOTO is outpolling his own party, eventually one will catch up with the voter.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564
    Stuartinromford said:

    kle4 said:

    contrarian said:

    I think it was Matt Goodwin who pointed out that though Starmer is doing well, in the 'are labour ready for government?' category they are streets behind.

    I've never been very clear what that means. I don't think it is very quantifiable. Most of us don't know who many secretaries of state are, let alone their shadows, so in terms of being ready for government I have no idea.

    I know Starmer looks like he was cast in a tv show to play a Prime Minister - vaguely distinguished looking older white man.
    It's clearly implicit for *something*. It might be that, thanks to the crisis, the only Shadow Cabinet members people have heard of are SKS and MilliEd. But as OGH points out, most of the actual Cabinet are on the scale of nonentity - actively awful.

    Something is causing the gap- whoever works it out wins.
    Indeed. I think that feeling of 'ready for goverment' is real, I just think it is hard to pin down, and so difficult to replicate.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,279
    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On approval ratings Sir Keir Starmer is leading leader approval ratings, which on past performance Labour will win the most votes in a general election held tomorrow.

    It feels a bit 2015 redux at the moment, the supplementaries are indicating Sir Keir is much better than Boris Johnson.

    Starmer would make a decent senior Civil Servant, but on the leadership spectrum he's Ming Campbells younger brother
    Looking around at the current crop you'd have to say 'a decent senior Civil Servant' wouldn't be such a bad option.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,150
    England regional case data by specimen date - sorted on the last thirty days

    image

    Does anyone want the original spreadsheet?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    edited July 2020
    kle4 said:

    contrarian said:

    I think it was Matt Goodwin who pointed out that though Starmer is doing well, in the 'are labour ready for government?' category they are streets behind.

    I've never been very clear what that means. I don't think it is very quantifiable. ...
    Indeed, but it does not have to be quantifiable - it is a feeling. And people, you know, feel their feelings without the need for (conscious) thought or clarity of definition.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,881
    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1280523866721435648?s=20

    The case numbers are starting to look like the death numbers since the start of lockdown happily.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    MikeSmithson said:

    LadyG said:

    It doesn't help Starmer that he is surrounded by invisible mediocrities.

    His Shadow Cabinet is as bad as Corbyn's.

    Dodds the Shadow Chancellor? FFS.

    Starmer is doing OK but his team selection is dreck

    The Tory cabinet line up is piss poor - only Sunak shines
    It's not a team of geniuses but Gove is at least imaginative, Raab is OK-ish, Patel might yet improve, she has potential.

    I agree that Gavin Williamson has been over-promoted by orders of magnitude and would struggle to impress in a parish council. He should be gone tomorrow.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564
    MaxPB said:


    I just don't see how that's remotely possible without the economy being set back 20 years. It's sad that no one is challenging this bullshit. They put these releases out and people just seem to accept it as something that is true.

    I cannot get over the clearly intended possibility for misleading people through the group's name. It indicates a motivation for confusion with the other body, which undermines recommendations they themselves might make which may or may not be good.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,199
    Pulpstar said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1280523866721435648?s=20

    The case numbers are starting to look like the death numbers since the start of lockdown happily.
    For me the most interesting thing is no apparent spike after all the protests.

    I was fearing a spike, glad to be proved wrong, hopefully.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564
    edited July 2020
    TimT said:

    kle4 said:

    contrarian said:

    I think it was Matt Goodwin who pointed out that though Starmer is doing well, in the 'are labour ready for government?' category they are streets behind.

    I've never been very clear what that means. I don't think it is very quantifiable. ...
    Indeed, but it does not have to be quantifiable - it is a feeling. And people, you know, feel their feelings without the need for (conscious) thought or clarity of definition.
    I agree, it just makes it hard to analyse what is done right or wrong from an opposition, and thus how to improve further or get worse.

    Some actions very clearly do make things worse though, and we've plenty of examples of that.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,172
    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT but relevant to this one too.

    TOPPING said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    contrarian said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    contrarian said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Contrarian, indeed.

    Short term flitting about will have short (and increasingly shorter) results whilst long term losing the respect of everyone with a memory longer than a goldfish.

    He should take the disease excuse and jump.

    But he won't. Not until his claws are prised from the precious.

    In the end, somebody somewhere is going to have to pay for the explosion of interventionism we have seen in recent months. Big time. Enormous time.

    There will have to either be huge spending cuts or huge tax rises. Possibly both. We just can't live like this. There is no new normal.

    I'd rather have tax cuts.
    Wouldn't we all. Seriously, who is going to pay? who is going to pay for it all? the untold billions sunak is spending to try to keep Johnson in everyone's good books?
    Nobody.

    We are printing money and what we are borrowing is at effectively 0% interest. It's not going to be paid back and there's no interest on it either.

    In the future the budget will need balancing again but for now saving the economy is the priority not taxes.
    FREE MONEY!

    Yay us!
    Indeed. We are very fortunate that Osborne and co fixed the roof while the sun was shining. ☀️
    I'm sure SKS is nota-ing this bene.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1280523866721435648?s=20

    The case numbers are starting to look like the death numbers since the start of lockdown happily.
    For me the most interesting thing is no apparent spike after all the protests.

    I was fearing a spike, glad to be proved wrong, hopefully.
    I think being outside is relatively safe. Winter is going to be tricky.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,172
    edited July 2020
    MikeSmithson said:

    LadyG said:

    It doesn't help Starmer that he is surrounded by invisible mediocrities.

    His Shadow Cabinet is as bad as Corbyn's.

    Dodds the Shadow Chancellor? FFS.

    Starmer is doing OK but his team selection is dreck

    The Tory cabinet line up is piss poor - only Sunak shines is doling out billions upon billions upon billions and hence people give him a high favourability rating.
    ftfy
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,199
    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1280523866721435648?s=20

    The case numbers are starting to look like the death numbers since the start of lockdown happily.
    For me the most interesting thing is no apparent spike after all the protests.

    I was fearing a spike, glad to be proved wrong, hopefully.
    I think being outside is relatively safe. Winter is going to be tricky.
    Yup, especially when family members want to meet up for Christmas.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1280523866721435648?s=20

    The case numbers are starting to look like the death numbers since the start of lockdown happily.
    For me the most interesting thing is no apparent spike after all the protests.

    I was fearing a spike, glad to be proved wrong, hopefully.
    Nor was there a spike after the beaches at Bournemouth, or the VE day parties.

    It's pretty clear that catching this outdoors is HARD. Thank God.

    But........ we are are a country with short summers.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,881
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1280523866721435648?s=20

    The case numbers are starting to look like the death numbers since the start of lockdown happily.
    For me the most interesting thing is no apparent spike after all the protests.

    I was fearing a spike, glad to be proved wrong, hopefully.
    THey were outside, and to be fair to the protesters loads were wearing masks. Also if you're feeling a big peeky the last thing you're going to do is head down for a ruck with the police.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,592
    On thread, the answer to the paradox is here. YouGov 4-6 July 2020:

    Do you think Keir Starmer is doing well or badly as leader
    of the Labour party? Well 46%, badly 23%

    Do you believe that at the moment Keir Starmer does or
    does not look like a Prime Minister in waiting? Does 38%, doesn't 34%

    Do you believe the Labour party today are or are not ready
    for government? Ready 23%, not ready 54%

    PB Tories should be worried by that. Starmer's project over the next 4 years will be to try and reshape Labour in his own image. He will very likely succeed in doing so. If the public comes to appreciate that, and they have 4 years to do so, Labour will be well placed to win in 2024.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,199
    LadyG said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1280523866721435648?s=20

    The case numbers are starting to look like the death numbers since the start of lockdown happily.
    For me the most interesting thing is no apparent spike after all the protests.

    I was fearing a spike, glad to be proved wrong, hopefully.
    Nor was there a spike after the beaches at Bournemouth, or the VE day parties.

    It's pretty clear that catching this outdoors is HARD. Thank God.

    But........ we are are a country with short summers.
    A Bournemouth beach spike might not yet show up, I'm giving major events a three week window before declaring the all clear.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MikeSmithson said:

    LadyG said:

    It doesn't help Starmer that he is surrounded by invisible mediocrities.

    His Shadow Cabinet is as bad as Corbyn's.

    Dodds the Shadow Chancellor? FFS.

    Starmer is doing OK but his team selection is dreck

    The Tory cabinet line up is piss poor - only Sunak shines
    There's also Gove, Patel and Truss that are good at what they do.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    TOPPING said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    LadyG said:

    It doesn't help Starmer that he is surrounded by invisible mediocrities.

    His Shadow Cabinet is as bad as Corbyn's.

    Dodds the Shadow Chancellor? FFS.

    Starmer is doing OK but his team selection is dreck

    The Tory cabinet line up is piss poor - only Sunak shines is doling out billions upon billions upon billions and hence people give him a high favourability rating.
    ftfy
    I think this is overestimating how in touch political anoraks are with material reality. Sunak fandom is based on the same warm, fuzzy feeling that people got from Rory Stewart and Pete Buttigieg.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Maybe this sort of thing is why Labour isn't felt to be ready for government...:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jul/06/keir-starmer-to-sign-up-for-unconscious-bias-training-amid-criticism
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    LadyG said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Another indication of how hard it is to emerge from lockdown:

    Israel’s public health director has quit amid a spike in new coronavirus cases, saying the country had been too hasty to reopen its economy and had lost its way in dealing with the pandemic.

    Reuters reports that Siegal Sadetzki, an epidemiologist, announced her resignation a day after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet reimposed a series of restrictions, including the closure of bars, gyms and event halls.

    After a national lockdown in April, Israel flattened the coronavirus infection curve in May to about 20 new cases a day.

    But since the reopening of schools and many businesses two months ago, the number of cases has soared, reaching more than 1,000 a day last week. The Health Ministry said it expected the number of patients on ventilators - now 32 - to reach 2,000.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/jul/07/coronavirus-live-news-boris-johnson-accuses-care-homes-over-deaths-as-us-cases-near-3m

    There is a theory as to why some countries/regions are getting rebounds in cases, whereas others, behaving identically, are not.

    Take two as an example. Israel and Denmark.

    They are both affluent, advanced countries. They have similar sized populations and similar population density. Both have good health care. Both flattened the curve early, then did unlockdown

    Israel reported 522 new cases today.

    Denmark reported.... 10.

    So what's happening? The theory is that it's aircon.

    Israel is a hot country in summer and it's often much more comfortable to be inside during the heat of the day. Down in the south - Eilat, the Negev it is unbearable and you HAVE to get inside for aircon.

    Denmark has cool summers like ours, they barely need aircon. Few places use it.

    Aircon is probably spreading this. Aircon explains (in part) the surge in the southern USA as the weather has really warmed up.

    Everywhere I've been with aircon, it's always been on 24-7. Even when I've questioned whether it's needed. I think people in places where it's widespread simply have an expectation that a shop should be 19 C whenever they step inside, even if it's 19 C outside the aircon will still be going. Now might be impractical in say Arizona heatwave to turn it off but if it's below 30 outside is it really needed.

    Keeping the aircon on (And on fiercely too) is a religion that doesn't seem to be examined too deeply elsewhere in the world. It's also atrocious for climate change as an aside. People lived happily before it was invented.

    Fortunately we've never really had it or had much of a need for it in the UK.
    Happily, but sweatily. But then I think we are no longer supposed to sweat either.
    I can think of many days in the DC region where the temp is below 30C but the AC really is welcome - it is called 'The Swamp' for a reason. So I think many use it not just to cool the air, but as a dehumidifier.

    That said, at home, we do not turn it on until we have a long spell into the 30s, and it is set at 23C, not 19. Likewise, in winter, we don't use the central heating until it is in the low teens outside, and then set it to 19.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,172
    BluestBlue said:

    Maybe this sort of thing is why Labour isn't felt to be ready for government...:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jul/06/keir-starmer-to-sign-up-for-unconscious-bias-training-amid-criticism

    Trying to retain as much of the base as possible while jettisoning Corbyn's legacy.

    Plus love it or hate it (guessing with you it's b) ) it's of the zeitgeist.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564
    Stereotomy said:

    TOPPING said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    LadyG said:

    It doesn't help Starmer that he is surrounded by invisible mediocrities.

    His Shadow Cabinet is as bad as Corbyn's.

    Dodds the Shadow Chancellor? FFS.

    Starmer is doing OK but his team selection is dreck

    The Tory cabinet line up is piss poor - only Sunak shines is doling out billions upon billions upon billions and hence people give him a high favourability rating.
    ftfy
    I think this is overestimating how in touch political anoraks are with material reality. Sunak fandom is based on the same warm, fuzzy feeling that people got from Rory Stewart and Pete Buttigieg.
    Who lost out in the political arenas. For his future prospects Sunak would need to do more than give the public a fuzzy feeling. Even Boris only got a look in with MPs in a moment of desperation, though he had been (relatively) popular beforehand with the public.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,549
    Good initiative:

    https://twitter.com/WiganCouncil/status/1280470692778201095?s=20
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,279
    edited July 2020
    LadyG said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    LadyG said:

    It doesn't help Starmer that he is surrounded by invisible mediocrities.

    His Shadow Cabinet is as bad as Corbyn's.

    Dodds the Shadow Chancellor? FFS.

    Starmer is doing OK but his team selection is dreck

    The Tory cabinet line up is piss poor - only Sunak shines
    It's not a team of geniuses but Gove is at least imaginative, Raab is OK-ish, Patel might yet improve, she has potential.

    I agree that Gavin Williamson has been over-promoted by orders of magnitude and would struggle to impress in a parish council. He should be gone tomorrow.
    Raab surprised us pleasantly with some firm action against Russian crooks, so maybe he does have a pair after all, even if somewhat diminutive.

    It would help if he would get that shitbag Sacoolas back from the US to face trial for killing the kid on the motor-bike, but I expect he needs a different POTUS to achieve that.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,837
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    LadyG said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Another indication of how hard it is to emerge from lockdown:

    Israel’s public health director has quit amid a spike in new coronavirus cases, saying the country had been too hasty to reopen its economy and had lost its way in dealing with the pandemic.

    Reuters reports that Siegal Sadetzki, an epidemiologist, announced her resignation a day after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet reimposed a series of restrictions, including the closure of bars, gyms and event halls.

    After a national lockdown in April, Israel flattened the coronavirus infection curve in May to about 20 new cases a day.

    But since the reopening of schools and many businesses two months ago, the number of cases has soared, reaching more than 1,000 a day last week. The Health Ministry said it expected the number of patients on ventilators - now 32 - to reach 2,000.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/jul/07/coronavirus-live-news-boris-johnson-accuses-care-homes-over-deaths-as-us-cases-near-3m

    Covid-19 doesn't care about Gov't spin, it judges authority by action.
    Yep. Extremely careful and well-coordinated measures are required to emerge from lockdown safely, with a really good test-'n'-trace operation, prompt and well-organised reaction to any outbreaks, consistent and well-delivered messaging, and good trust by the public in the government. I can't say I'm massively optimistic either for the UK or the US.
    Yes, there are enough causes for concern with the UK but the you really wonder where and how it all ends for the US. Unless it changes direction radically or gets very lucky it hard to estimate just how bad the tally could get. 250,000 deaths? I don't think that's unrealistic on current trends.

    I saw one doc on Twitter who reckoned 600-700,000 American dead was a reasonable worst case scenario

    However, he was ignoring the fact that treatments are already much better.

    Unless the health systems are overwhelmed I believe America will perhaps suffer about 175,000 deaths. Maybe fewer than that
    Would like to think so, LG, but we're at 133,000 already and there's no sign of the number of cases abating. The lag factor would suggest deaths will accelerate soon, so your prediction would be a hell of a good result from here.
    Deaths appear to be falling even when controlling for the lag.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,549
    Philip_Thompson said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    LadyG said:

    It doesn't help Starmer that he is surrounded by invisible mediocrities.

    His Shadow Cabinet is as bad as Corbyn's.

    Dodds the Shadow Chancellor? FFS.

    Starmer is doing OK but his team selection is dreck

    The Tory cabinet line up is piss poor - only Sunak shines
    There's also Gove, Patel and Truss that are good at what they do.
    Raab has gone up in my estimation over BNO and Magnitsky (which he has fought for for years).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,881
    edited July 2020
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1280523866721435648?s=20

    The case numbers are starting to look like the death numbers since the start of lockdown happily.
    For me the most interesting thing is no apparent spike after all the protests.

    I was fearing a spike, glad to be proved wrong, hopefully.
    I think being outside is relatively safe. Winter is going to be tricky.
    Yup, especially when family members want to meet up for Christmas.
    THis country's yuletide tradition tends to be the following:

    Work colleagues (Pre christmas) -> Family (Christmas) -> Friends (NYE).

    Whilst loads of that is going to be cancelled (Office crimbo in particular I expect) it's still a heady mix nationwide. Least it's not family last, that'd be the worst order.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1280523866721435648?s=20

    The case numbers are starting to look like the death numbers since the start of lockdown happily.
    For me the most interesting thing is no apparent spike after all the protests.

    I was fearing a spike, glad to be proved wrong, hopefully.
    I think there's enough immunity out there now for spikes to be small or non-existent. After every major social event or "dickheads" going out and living life there was this expectation from the lockdown fascists that we would see a huge rise in new cases. That hasn't been the case.

    The source of deaths and cases at the moment is the care sector we've been arguing about all morning, were down to around 30 hospitals deaths per day in England and falling but we see around 400 reported deaths per week.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,087
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    On thread, the answer to the paradox is here. YouGov 4-6 July 2020:

    Do you think Keir Starmer is doing well or badly as leader
    of the Labour party? Well 46%, badly 23%

    Do you believe that at the moment Keir Starmer does or
    does not look like a Prime Minister in waiting? Does 38%, doesn't 34%

    Do you believe the Labour party today are or are not ready
    for government? Ready 23%, not ready 54%

    PB Tories should be worried by that. Starmer's project over the next 4 years will be to try and reshape Labour in his own image. He will very likely succeed in doing so. If the public comes to appreciate that, and they have 4 years to do so, Labour will be well placed to win in 2024.

    He has to get over Labour being branded institutionally anti-semitic first. Being three years on the inside while that was going on...not a good look for the shiny new squeaky-clean leader. "I was only following orders....."
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,924
    edited July 2020
    LadyG said:

    For Nabavi, fpt

    There is a theory as to why some countries/regions are getting rebounds in cases, whereas others, behaving identically, are not.

    Take two as an example. Israel and Denmark.

    They are both affluent, advanced countries. They have similar sized populations and similar population density. Both have good health care. Both flattened the curve early, then did unlockdown

    Israel reported 522 new cases today.

    Denmark reported.... 10.

    So what's happening? The theory is that it's aircon.

    Israel is a hot country in summer and it's often much more comfortable to be inside during the heat of the day. Down in the south - Eilat, the Negev it is unbearable and you HAVE to get inside for aircon.

    Denmark has cool summers like ours, they barely need aircon. Few places use it.

    Aircon is probably spreading this. Aircon explains (in part) the surge in the southern USA as the weather has really warmed up.

    Taiwan in July?
    Edit.
    Oops I see you've addressed that. If you think Hong Kong had stinking humidity you ain't been to Taipei...
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    BluestBlue said:

    Maybe this sort of thing is why Labour isn't felt to be ready for government...:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jul/06/keir-starmer-to-sign-up-for-unconscious-bias-training-amid-criticism

    Absolutely. Keir Starmer doesn't suffer from unconscious bias, he suffers from a very conscious and deliberate decision to be completely uninterested in improving the material conditions of minorities. BLM is fighting for change, not for these kinds of hollow gestures.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,837
    FPT

    LadyG said:
    » show previous quotes
    There is a theory as to why some countries/regions are getting rebounds in cases, whereas others, behaving identically, are not.

    Take two as an example. Israel and Denmark.

    They are both affluent, advanced countries. They have similar sized populations and similar population density. Both have good health care. Both flattened the curve early, then did unlockdown

    Israel reported 522 new cases today.

    Denmark reported.... 10.

    So what's happening? The theory is that it's aircon.

    Israel is a hot country in summer and it's often much more comfortable to be inside during the heat of the day. Down in the south - Eilat, the Negev it is unbearable and you HAVE to get inside for aircon.

    Denmark has cool summers like ours, they barely need aircon. Few places use it.

    Aircon is probably spreading this. Aircon explains (in part) the surge in the southern USA as the weather has really warmed up.

    Was a theory of @Luckyguy1983 – a known crank on many issues but certainly right in his laudable views on food quality and welfare and probably right on this matter.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,548
    CarlottaVance said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    LadyG said:

    It doesn't help Starmer that he is surrounded by invisible mediocrities.

    His Shadow Cabinet is as bad as Corbyn's.

    Dodds the Shadow Chancellor? FFS.

    Starmer is doing OK but his team selection is dreck

    The Tory cabinet line up is piss poor - only Sunak shines
    There's also Gove, Patel and Truss that are good at what they do.
    Raab has gone up in my estimation over BNO and Magnitsky (which he has fought for for years).
    I'm a big fan of both of those policies, and I thought he did a good job a week or so before that with one of the last daily press conferences.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    LadyG said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    LadyG said:

    It doesn't help Starmer that he is surrounded by invisible mediocrities.

    His Shadow Cabinet is as bad as Corbyn's.

    Dodds the Shadow Chancellor? FFS.

    Starmer is doing OK but his team selection is dreck

    The Tory cabinet line up is piss poor - only Sunak shines
    It's not a team of geniuses but Gove is at least imaginative, Raab is OK-ish, Patel might yet improve, she has potential.

    I agree that Gavin Williamson has been over-promoted by orders of magnitude and would struggle to impress in a parish council. He should be gone tomorrow.
    Raab surprised us pleasantly with some firm action against Russian crooks, so maybe he does have a pair after all, even if somewhat diminutive.

    It would help if he would get that shitbag Sacoolas back from the US to face trial for killing the kid on the motor-bike, but I expect he needs a different POTUS to achieve that.
    Never going to happen in a million years. No POTUS has ever extradited anyone with diplomatic immunity that I can think of. In America this case is closed.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    edited July 2020
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    LadyG said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1280523866721435648?s=20

    The case numbers are starting to look like the death numbers since the start of lockdown happily.
    For me the most interesting thing is no apparent spike after all the protests.

    I was fearing a spike, glad to be proved wrong, hopefully.
    Nor was there a spike after the beaches at Bournemouth, or the VE day parties.

    It's pretty clear that catching this outdoors is HARD. Thank God.

    But........ we are are a country with short summers.
    A Bournemouth beach spike might not yet show up, I'm giving major events a three week window before declaring the all clear.
    Possible, but unlikely? There were no spikes after these photos of the Ozarks on Memorial Day, when everyone presumed Covid would explode

    https://twitter.com/JoeScibelli/status/1279795909568557056?s=20


    I think coronavirus just isn't very potent, outdoors
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,538
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    LadyG said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1280523866721435648?s=20

    The case numbers are starting to look like the death numbers since the start of lockdown happily.
    For me the most interesting thing is no apparent spike after all the protests.

    I was fearing a spike, glad to be proved wrong, hopefully.
    Nor was there a spike after the beaches at Bournemouth, or the VE day parties.

    It's pretty clear that catching this outdoors is HARD. Thank God.

    But........ we are are a country with short summers.
    A Bournemouth beach spike might not yet show up, I'm giving major events a three week window before declaring the all clear.
    Is that not becvause the results are smeared out over much of England (in that example) and don't really show up as a discrete spike, just a general growth of the grass so to speak.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,954
    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1280523866721435648?s=20

    The case numbers are starting to look like the death numbers since the start of lockdown happily.
    For me the most interesting thing is no apparent spike after all the protests.

    I was fearing a spike, glad to be proved wrong, hopefully.
    I think there's enough immunity out there now for spikes to be small or non-existent. After every major social event or "dickheads" going out and living life there was this expectation from the lockdown fascists that we would see a huge rise in new cases. That hasn't been the case.

    The source of deaths and cases at the moment is the care sector we've been arguing about all morning, were down to around 30 hospitals deaths per day in England and falling but we see around 400 reported deaths per week.
    The big one is Saturday. I hope that passes without a big spike.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,172
    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1280523866721435648?s=20

    The case numbers are starting to look like the death numbers since the start of lockdown happily.
    For me the most interesting thing is no apparent spike after all the protests.

    I was fearing a spike, glad to be proved wrong, hopefully.
    I think there's enough immunity out there now for spikes to be small or non-existent. After every major social event or "dickheads" going out and living life there was this expectation from the lockdown fascists that we would see a huge rise in new cases. That hasn't been the case.

    The source of deaths and cases at the moment is the care sector we've been arguing about all morning, were down to around 30 hospitals deaths per day in England and falling but we see around 400 reported deaths per week.
    Also just as the govt was successful in putting the fear of death into the population, the 2m thing has resonated and plenty of people are still staying far apart during permitted (and perhaps even prohibited) social gatherings. Plus there's the washing of hands, etc.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,837
    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1280523866721435648?s=20

    The case numbers are starting to look like the death numbers since the start of lockdown happily.
    For me the most interesting thing is no apparent spike after all the protests.

    I was fearing a spike, glad to be proved wrong, hopefully.
    I think there's enough immunity out there now for spikes to be small or non-existent. After every major social event or "dickheads" going out and living life there was this expectation from the lockdown fascists that we would see a huge rise in new cases. That hasn't been the case.

    The source of deaths and cases at the moment is the care sector we've been arguing about all morning, were down to around 30 hospitals deaths per day in England and falling but we see around 400 reported deaths per week.

    Absolutely spot on.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,327
    LadyG said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1280523866721435648?s=20

    The case numbers are starting to look like the death numbers since the start of lockdown happily.
    For me the most interesting thing is no apparent spike after all the protests.

    I was fearing a spike, glad to be proved wrong, hopefully.
    Nor was there a spike after the beaches at Bournemouth, or the VE day parties.

    It's pretty clear that catching this outdoors is HARD. Thank God.

    But........ we are are a country with short summers.
    Something happened late May/early June- there's a definite plateau in the case data around 10 - 15 June, and the same thing happens for the FT death graph around 23 - 30 June. The time lag makes me think it's real. Not a peak, thank goodness, but the fall stopped for about a week. Fortunately, the case and death data seem to have resumed their fall since then.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    MarqueeMark said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    On thread, the answer to the paradox is here. YouGov 4-6 July 2020:

    Do you think Keir Starmer is doing well or badly as leader
    of the Labour party? Well 46%, badly 23%

    Do you believe that at the moment Keir Starmer does or
    does not look like a Prime Minister in waiting? Does 38%, doesn't 34%

    Do you believe the Labour party today are or are not ready
    for government? Ready 23%, not ready 54%

    PB Tories should be worried by that. Starmer's project over the next 4 years will be to try and reshape Labour in his own image. He will very likely succeed in doing so. If the public comes to appreciate that, and they have 4 years to do so, Labour will be well placed to win in 2024.

    He has to get over Labour being branded institutionally anti-semitic first. Being three years on the inside while that was going on...not a good look for the shiny new squeaky-clean leader. "I was only following orders....."
    Oh come off it, the media will clearly give him a pass. They have no actual interest in antisemitism. There's a reason they'll use antisemitic tropes against Ed Milliband and George Soros, then go into a fit of pearl-clutching when Corbyn attends a passover seder with The Wrong Kind Of Jews
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,924
    CarlottaVance said:

    Good initiative:

    https://twitter.com/WiganCouncil/status/1280470692778201095?s=20

    Wigan Council is one of the rotten boroughs that overall isn't that bad.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,172
    MarqueeMark said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    On thread, the answer to the paradox is here. YouGov 4-6 July 2020:

    Do you think Keir Starmer is doing well or badly as leader
    of the Labour party? Well 46%, badly 23%

    Do you believe that at the moment Keir Starmer does or
    does not look like a Prime Minister in waiting? Does 38%, doesn't 34%

    Do you believe the Labour party today are or are not ready
    for government? Ready 23%, not ready 54%

    PB Tories should be worried by that. Starmer's project over the next 4 years will be to try and reshape Labour in his own image. He will very likely succeed in doing so. If the public comes to appreciate that, and they have 4 years to do so, Labour will be well placed to win in 2024.

    He has to get over Labour being branded institutionally anti-semitic first. Being three years on the inside while that was going on...not a good look for the shiny new squeaky-clean leader. "I was only following orders....."
    I think people (not me mind, or actually perhaps me) are desperate to have a functioning, non-toxic Labour Party.

    I think SKS delivers that. It is a question of what happens now. But he is just as aware that there is no election for four years as Dom is and will be planning accordingly (as well as I'm sure being ready "tomorrow morning" for any attempted Cons surprises, or events).
  • humbuggerhumbugger Posts: 377
    Good afternoon all. Some interesting stuff on Covid numbers today and in that context I offer a tale of two Wendys.

    First, my Aunt Wendy died in a care home a couple of weeks or so ago. Her death certificate says Covid but the family are sceptical to say the least. She'd been bed bound for at least a year, and when I saw her for the last time at Christmas it was clear she was waiting to die. She'd lost any interest in anything and was existing rather than living. Covid may or may not have finally ended her life, but if so it was a mercy to all concerned.

    We have a friend named Wendy whose Mum died a few weeks ago. She was 96 and died at home surrounded by her family. Again, her death certificate says Covid but the family think it was just old age. Maybe, maybe not.

    Both of these cases appear in the statistics as Covid deaths. In neither case was death when it occurred anything of a surprise, nor was it accelerated, at least in the view of the family.

    There are probably many such cases.

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,837
    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1280523866721435648?s=20

    The case numbers are starting to look like the death numbers since the start of lockdown happily.
    For me the most interesting thing is no apparent spike after all the protests.

    I was fearing a spike, glad to be proved wrong, hopefully.
    I think there's enough immunity out there now for spikes to be small or non-existent. After every major social event or "dickheads" going out and living life there was this expectation from the lockdown fascists that we would see a huge rise in new cases. That hasn't been the case.

    The source of deaths and cases at the moment is the care sector we've been arguing about all morning, were down to around 30 hospitals deaths per day in England and falling but we see around 400 reported deaths per week.
    The big one is Saturday. I hope that passes without a big spike.
    The 'big one' after all the other 'big ones' that proved not to be 'big ones' after all?
  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    FPT

    LostPassword said:
    » show previous quotes
    The WWW is one thing that uses the internet. Email is another. There are yet more uses of the internet.


    So people say "I saw it on the internet" they mean "i saw it on the world wide web"?

    Hmmmm but everyone says hoover, not vacuum cleaner, think the difference has been lost now
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,172
    fpt
    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/titaniamcgrath/status/1280486915825950721?s=21

    Easy to mock. And fine to mock. Especially if combined with meaningful opposition to sexism.
    Absolutely. The kind of meaningful opposition to sexism found on the trading floor of Goldman Sachs in the 80s/90s.
    Well I was never like that. Embarrassing. I was the intense intellectual type. Eyes on screen at all times.
    Well done for hiding that comment away on the old thread.

    Oh wait...
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    On thread, the answer to the paradox is here. YouGov 4-6 July 2020:

    Do you think Keir Starmer is doing well or badly as leader
    of the Labour party? Well 46%, badly 23%

    Do you believe that at the moment Keir Starmer does or
    does not look like a Prime Minister in waiting? Does 38%, doesn't 34%

    Do you believe the Labour party today are or are not ready
    for government? Ready 23%, not ready 54%

    PB Tories should be worried by that. Starmer's project over the next 4 years will be to try and reshape Labour in his own image. He will very likely succeed in doing so. If the public comes to appreciate that, and they have 4 years to do so, Labour will be well placed to win in 2024.

    If yoiu voted Tory in December, why would you not do so now? The vast majority of people have been largely observing this crisis, rather than experiencing it. The government's hubris and incompetence have gifted Labour a recovery of sorts because the party now has a competent leader, but you cannot undo years of self-harm in the space of a few months. As you say, it is a longer project than that - and one that will take place as many more people than now are on the front line of the economic fall-out from the crisis.

  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,279
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    LadyG said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    LadyG said:

    It doesn't help Starmer that he is surrounded by invisible mediocrities.

    His Shadow Cabinet is as bad as Corbyn's.

    Dodds the Shadow Chancellor? FFS.

    Starmer is doing OK but his team selection is dreck

    The Tory cabinet line up is piss poor - only Sunak shines
    It's not a team of geniuses but Gove is at least imaginative, Raab is OK-ish, Patel might yet improve, she has potential.

    I agree that Gavin Williamson has been over-promoted by orders of magnitude and would struggle to impress in a parish council. He should be gone tomorrow.
    Raab surprised us pleasantly with some firm action against Russian crooks, so maybe he does have a pair after all, even if somewhat diminutive.

    It would help if he would get that shitbag Sacoolas back from the US to face trial for killing the kid on the motor-bike, but I expect he needs a different POTUS to achieve that.
    Never going to happen in a million years. No POTUS has ever extradited anyone with diplomatic immunity that I can think of. In America this case is closed.
    Don't think she has DI. Even so, there's a close comparison with the case of the Bulgarian diplomat who definitely did have it but was handed over anyway for mowing someone down in New York.

    Seems like a simple case of force majeure.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,837
    LadyG said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1280523866721435648?s=20

    The case numbers are starting to look like the death numbers since the start of lockdown happily.
    For me the most interesting thing is no apparent spike after all the protests.

    I was fearing a spike, glad to be proved wrong, hopefully.
    Nor was there a spike after the beaches at Bournemouth, or the VE day parties.

    It's pretty clear that catching this outdoors is HARD. Thank God.

    But........ we are are a country with short summers.

    We seem to have very long albeit episodic summers these days, interspersed with the occasional burst of autumn. April, May and part of June were summery, early July mediocre, looking to warm up mid-month. We seem to be able to string some kind of summer out until early October some years.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,329
    Stereotomy said:

    BluestBlue said:

    Maybe this sort of thing is why Labour isn't felt to be ready for government...:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jul/06/keir-starmer-to-sign-up-for-unconscious-bias-training-amid-criticism

    Absolutely. Keir Starmer doesn't suffer from unconscious bias, he suffers from a very conscious and deliberate decision to be completely uninterested in improving the material conditions of minorities. BLM is fighting for change, not for these kinds of hollow gestures.
    Slightly aside from the main point, but have you ever undergone unconscious bias training? It's mandatory where I work* for all involved in hiring and our course, at least, is good. Some obvious bits, but one part that stood out was a group exercise where each group was shown a video of an altercation between two groups and had to work out what had happened, essentially who was to blame. Each group got a video with different actors (different ethnic groups, sex, age, dress, accent etc) and different turns of phrase, but essentially the same content - transcripts for all four were shared afterwards and were identical in substance. The groups came to different conclusions about blame based on who was in the videos.

    Unconscious bias is real (and natural and a useful survival instinct through human evolution) and it is useful to be aware of it to try and question your own assumptions and prejudices. Labour should absolutely train their people given recent history with antisemitism and Starmer would be a hypocrite not to also do the training himself.

    *a university, so yes, I know: wokeville
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,549
    https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1280528830403411968?s=20
  • isamisam Posts: 40,872
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On approval ratings Sir Keir Starmer is leading leader approval ratings, which on past performance Labour will win the most votes in a general election held tomorrow.

    It feels a bit 2015 redux at the moment, the supplementaries are indicating Sir Keir is much better than Boris Johnson.

    In 2012 Miliband led Cameron on approval ratings, and Labour led in the polls
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,549
    Another man comes second best to Ms Rowling:

    https://twitter.com/jk_rowling/status/1280525371503501317?s=20
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,837
    humbugger said:

    Good afternoon all. Some interesting stuff on Covid numbers today and in that context I offer a tale of two Wendys.

    First, my Aunt Wendy died in a care home a couple of weeks or so ago. Her death certificate says Covid but the family are sceptical to say the least. She'd been bed bound for at least a year, and when I saw her for the last time at Christmas it was clear she was waiting to die. She'd lost any interest in anything and was existing rather than living. Covid may or may not have finally ended her life, but if so it was a mercy to all concerned.

    We have a friend named Wendy whose Mum died a few weeks ago. She was 96 and died at home surrounded by her family. Again, her death certificate says Covid but the family think it was just old age. Maybe, maybe not.

    Both of these cases appear in the statistics as Covid deaths. In neither case was death when it occurred anything of a surprise, nor was it accelerated, at least in the view of the family.

    There are probably many such cases.

    Sorry to hear about your aunt. Thanks for sharing that anecdote because as you say there will be many such cases.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,463
    kle4 said:

    contrarian said:

    I think it was Matt Goodwin who pointed out that though Starmer is doing well, in the 'are labour ready for government?' category they are streets behind.

    I've never been very clear what that means. I don't think it is very quantifiable. Most of us don't know who many secretaries of state are, let alone their shadows, so in terms of being ready for government I have no idea.

    I know Starmer looks like he was cast in a tv show to play a Prime Minister - vaguely distinguished looking older white man.
    It means things like: Might you find Richard Burgon or RL-B on the front bench. Might voting Labour bring Laura Pidcock back into play as next leader or Minister for Shouty People's Interests . Might voting Labour mean Scottish interests controlling the show.

    But if we could have a front bench of Coopers, Benns, Kendalls, Nandys and Phillipses then maybe.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,220
    She was the future once

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1280530806906159107?s=09
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564
    CarlottaVance said:

    Another man comes second best to Ms Rowling:

    https://twitter.com/jk_rowling/status/1280525371503501317?s=20

    Also, I doubt she asked to 'dominate' the public debate (despite contributing to it).
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,329
    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1280528830403411968?s=20

    Is it wrong to be little bit disappointed they don't have EU-branded masks, nice dark blue with a few stars?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,549
    TOPPING said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    On thread, the answer to the paradox is here. YouGov 4-6 July 2020:

    Do you think Keir Starmer is doing well or badly as leader
    of the Labour party? Well 46%, badly 23%

    Do you believe that at the moment Keir Starmer does or
    does not look like a Prime Minister in waiting? Does 38%, doesn't 34%

    Do you believe the Labour party today are or are not ready
    for government? Ready 23%, not ready 54%

    PB Tories should be worried by that. Starmer's project over the next 4 years will be to try and reshape Labour in his own image. He will very likely succeed in doing so. If the public comes to appreciate that, and they have 4 years to do so, Labour will be well placed to win in 2024.

    He has to get over Labour being branded institutionally anti-semitic first. Being three years on the inside while that was going on...not a good look for the shiny new squeaky-clean leader. "I was only following orders....."
    I think people (not me mind, or actually perhaps me) are desperate to have a functioning, non-toxic Labour Party.

    I think SKS delivers that.
    I think he's delivered a functioning non-toxic Labour leadership. The party is a work in progress (mostly in the appropriate direction).

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,030
    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT but relevant to this one too.

    TOPPING said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    contrarian said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    contrarian said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Contrarian, indeed.

    Short term flitting about will have short (and increasingly shorter) results whilst long term losing the respect of everyone with a memory longer than a goldfish.

    He should take the disease excuse and jump.

    But he won't. Not until his claws are prised from the precious.

    In the end, somebody somewhere is going to have to pay for the explosion of interventionism we have seen in recent months. Big time. Enormous time.

    There will have to either be huge spending cuts or huge tax rises. Possibly both. We just can't live like this. There is no new normal.

    I'd rather have tax cuts.
    Wouldn't we all. Seriously, who is going to pay? who is going to pay for it all? the untold billions sunak is spending to try to keep Johnson in everyone's good books?
    Nobody.

    We are printing money and what we are borrowing is at effectively 0% interest. It's not going to be paid back and there's no interest on it either.

    In the future the budget will need balancing again but for now saving the economy is the priority not taxes.
    FREE MONEY!

    Yay us!
    Indeed. We are very fortunate that Osborne and co fixed the roof while the sun was shining. ☀️
    There's humour here. Real humour. It's nice to see.

    Now back to grim reality ...
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    Anabobazina said:

    LadyG said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1280523866721435648?s=20

    The case numbers are starting to look like the death numbers since the start of lockdown happily.
    For me the most interesting thing is no apparent spike after all the protests.

    I was fearing a spike, glad to be proved wrong, hopefully.
    Nor was there a spike after the beaches at Bournemouth, or the VE day parties.

    It's pretty clear that catching this outdoors is HARD. Thank God.

    But........ we are are a country with short summers.

    We seem to have very long albeit episodic summers these days, interspersed with the occasional burst of autumn. April, May and part of June were summery, early July mediocre, looking to warm up mid-month. We seem to be able to string some kind of summer out until early October some years.
    Depends where you are perhaps? In the south of England, and London, what you say is true. Summers have measurably improved in my lifetime. Sometimes they are TOO hot.

    But you don't have to go that far north or west to get the traditional short, cold British summer.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,187
    LadyG said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @LadyG My sense is that it's overused. The idea of turning it off will have never crossed many minds even in mildly warm places. My anecdotal experience is China, about 15 years ago. Never appreciated that aircon was (I think) the global norm for shops and we're a bit of an outlier I think here.

    Yes. The counter-example to my theory is East Asia.

    Air-con is ubiquitous in Thailand, Hong Kong, Japan, where they have stinking hot humidity, but the virus is dormant there.

    But I am still sure it is a vector. It is recycled air. It's the perfect way to infect whole rooms of people.

    I'm not sure it's aircon per se.

    Being confined indoors with poor ventilation is undoubtedly not a good idea. If fans are blowing exhaled air from one individual towards others (which seems to have been a patter in at least one documented Korean case), that doesn't help, either.
    Decent aircon systems should have HEPA filters, so the 'recycling' isn't necessarily the problem.
    Plenty of crappy systems around, though.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    US Election Nerds are crowdfunding their own polls of ignored but interesting races. Love it. Who wants to predict the Pres/Senate numbers? I'm pretty unsure, but will go with:

    Sullivan 12% lead
    Trump 8% lead

    https://twitter.com/theJackVaughan/status/1280495716075536384
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,837
    LadyG said:

    Anabobazina said:

    LadyG said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1280523866721435648?s=20

    The case numbers are starting to look like the death numbers since the start of lockdown happily.
    For me the most interesting thing is no apparent spike after all the protests.

    I was fearing a spike, glad to be proved wrong, hopefully.
    Nor was there a spike after the beaches at Bournemouth, or the VE day parties.

    It's pretty clear that catching this outdoors is HARD. Thank God.

    But........ we are are a country with short summers.

    We seem to have very long albeit episodic summers these days, interspersed with the occasional burst of autumn. April, May and part of June were summery, early July mediocre, looking to warm up mid-month. We seem to be able to string some kind of summer out until early October some years.
    Depends where you are perhaps? In the south of England, and London, what you say is true. Summers have measurably improved in my lifetime. Sometimes they are TOO hot.

    But you don't have to go that far north or west to get the traditional short, cold British summer.
    Ah yes, that is true. I am in London of course – SE England has a climate vastly superior to points north and west.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,905
    My wife posted this, and I think it's much better than the Lincoln Project Russian advert:

    https://twitter.com/RVAT2020/status/1280486725165502464?s=09
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,905
    humbugger said:

    Good afternoon all. Some interesting stuff on Covid numbers today and in that context I offer a tale of two Wendys.

    First, my Aunt Wendy died in a care home a couple of weeks or so ago. Her death certificate says Covid but the family are sceptical to say the least. She'd been bed bound for at least a year, and when I saw her for the last time at Christmas it was clear she was waiting to die. She'd lost any interest in anything and was existing rather than living. Covid may or may not have finally ended her life, but if so it was a mercy to all concerned.

    We have a friend named Wendy whose Mum died a few weeks ago. She was 96 and died at home surrounded by her family. Again, her death certificate says Covid but the family think it was just old age. Maybe, maybe not.

    Both of these cases appear in the statistics as Covid deaths. In neither case was death when it occurred anything of a surprise, nor was it accelerated, at least in the view of the family.

    There are probably many such cases.

    Which is why the best measure to look at is excess deaths. Hopefully we'll go through a period when it's running at less than the expected level.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,279
    Anabobazina said:

    humbugger said:

    Good afternoon all. Some interesting stuff on Covid numbers today and in that context I offer a tale of two Wendys.

    First, my Aunt Wendy died in a care home a couple of weeks or so ago. Her death certificate says Covid but the family are sceptical to say the least. She'd been bed bound for at least a year, and when I saw her for the last time at Christmas it was clear she was waiting to die. She'd lost any interest in anything and was existing rather than living. Covid may or may not have finally ended her life, but if so it was a mercy to all concerned.

    We have a friend named Wendy whose Mum died a few weeks ago. She was 96 and died at home surrounded by her family. Again, her death certificate says Covid but the family think it was just old age. Maybe, maybe not.

    Both of these cases appear in the statistics as Covid deaths. In neither case was death when it occurred anything of a surprise, nor was it accelerated, at least in the view of the family.

    There are probably many such cases.

    Sorry to hear about your aunt. Thanks for sharing that anecdote because as you say there will be many such cases.
    Yes, ditto to that. The statistical issue will however go both ways because of the necessarily subjective assignation of cause of death in many instances.

    My Mum's certificate, for example, stated 'old age' which was fair enough but it could have been attributed to a number of things. The substantive cause was dementia but that in itself didn't kill, but was so severe that there was a general breakdown of bodily functions.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,592
    MarqueeMark said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    On thread, the answer to the paradox is here. YouGov 4-6 July 2020:

    Do you think Keir Starmer is doing well or badly as leader
    of the Labour party? Well 46%, badly 23%

    Do you believe that at the moment Keir Starmer does or
    does not look like a Prime Minister in waiting? Does 38%, doesn't 34%

    Do you believe the Labour party today are or are not ready
    for government? Ready 23%, not ready 54%

    PB Tories should be worried by that. Starmer's project over the next 4 years will be to try and reshape Labour in his own image. He will very likely succeed in doing so. If the public comes to appreciate that, and they have 4 years to do so, Labour will be well placed to win in 2024.

    He has to get over Labour being branded institutionally anti-semitic first. Being three years on the inside while that was going on...not a good look for the shiny new squeaky-clean leader. "I was only following orders....."
    His very first words in his acceptance speech as leader were to call out anti-semitism in the party. He has just sacked his main leadership rival on those grounds.

    So you'll have to find a better attack line than that. For the past two months the Conservatives have been looking for one only to draw a blank at every turn. It is blindingly obvious from those figures that the general public if not PB Tories have a high opinion of him.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    Nigelb said:

    LadyG said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @LadyG My sense is that it's overused. The idea of turning it off will have never crossed many minds even in mildly warm places. My anecdotal experience is China, about 15 years ago. Never appreciated that aircon was (I think) the global norm for shops and we're a bit of an outlier I think here.

    Yes. The counter-example to my theory is East Asia.

    Air-con is ubiquitous in Thailand, Hong Kong, Japan, where they have stinking hot humidity, but the virus is dormant there.

    But I am still sure it is a vector. It is recycled air. It's the perfect way to infect whole rooms of people.

    I'm not sure it's aircon per se.

    Being confined indoors with poor ventilation is undoubtedly not a good idea. If fans are blowing exhaled air from one individual towards others (which seems to have been a patter in at least one documented Korean case), that doesn't help, either.
    Decent aircon systems should have HEPA filters, so the 'recycling' isn't necessarily the problem.
    Plenty of crappy systems around, though.
    Yes, exactly: the analyses I've read say that a well-maintained modern aircon should not be much of a problem, if they take in enough fresh air and are thoroughly cleaned and so on.

    But an old or bad aircon is a real risk.

    I am certainly personally warier of aircon than I was.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,030
    algarkirk said:

    kle4 said:

    contrarian said:

    I think it was Matt Goodwin who pointed out that though Starmer is doing well, in the 'are labour ready for government?' category they are streets behind.

    I've never been very clear what that means. I don't think it is very quantifiable. Most of us don't know who many secretaries of state are, let alone their shadows, so in terms of being ready for government I have no idea.

    I know Starmer looks like he was cast in a tv show to play a Prime Minister - vaguely distinguished looking older white man.
    It means things like: Might you find Richard Burgon or RL-B on the front bench. Might voting Labour bring Laura Pidcock back into play as next leader or Minister for Shouty People's Interests . Might voting Labour mean Scottish interests controlling the show.

    But if we could have a front bench of Coopers, Benns, Kendalls, Nandys and Phillipses then maybe.
    Labour "ready for government" is code for Labour "given up on the notion of changing much".
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606
    rcs1000 said:

    humbugger said:

    Good afternoon all. Some interesting stuff on Covid numbers today and in that context I offer a tale of two Wendys.

    First, my Aunt Wendy died in a care home a couple of weeks or so ago. Her death certificate says Covid but the family are sceptical to say the least. She'd been bed bound for at least a year, and when I saw her for the last time at Christmas it was clear she was waiting to die. She'd lost any interest in anything and was existing rather than living. Covid may or may not have finally ended her life, but if so it was a mercy to all concerned.

    We have a friend named Wendy whose Mum died a few weeks ago. She was 96 and died at home surrounded by her family. Again, her death certificate says Covid but the family think it was just old age. Maybe, maybe not.

    Both of these cases appear in the statistics as Covid deaths. In neither case was death when it occurred anything of a surprise, nor was it accelerated, at least in the view of the family.

    There are probably many such cases.

    Which is why the best measure to look at is excess deaths. Hopefully we'll go through a period when it's running at less than the expected level.
    It's already happening, deaths for the last two weeks are running at below the 5y average.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,960
    Mr. Punter, aye. Surprised by some good moves Raab has made on foreign policy.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,030
    CarlottaVance said:

    Another man comes second best to Ms Rowling:

    https://twitter.com/jk_rowling/status/1280525371503501317?s=20

    A strong retort. Rowling is nevertheless spouting a lot of drivel on this topic.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    JonCisBack said:

    FPT

    LostPassword said:
    » show previous quotes
    The WWW is one thing that uses the internet. Email is another. There are yet more uses of the internet.


    So people say "I saw it on the internet" they mean "i saw it on the world wide web"?

    Hmmmm but everyone says hoover, not vacuum cleaner, think the difference has been lost now

    To be fair it's both. The web is on the internet so anything you see on the web is on the internet.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    kle4 said:

    contrarian said:

    I think it was Matt Goodwin who pointed out that though Starmer is doing well, in the 'are labour ready for government?' category they are streets behind.

    I've never been very clear what that means. I don't think it is very quantifiable. Most of us don't know who many secretaries of state are, let alone their shadows, so in terms of being ready for government I have no idea.

    I know Starmer looks like he was cast in a tv show to play a Prime Minister - vaguely distinguished looking older white man.
    It means things like: Might you find Richard Burgon or RL-B on the front bench. Might voting Labour bring Laura Pidcock back into play as next leader or Minister for Shouty People's Interests . Might voting Labour mean Scottish interests controlling the show.

    But if we could have a front bench of Coopers, Benns, Kendalls, Nandys and Phillipses then maybe.
    Labour "ready for government" is code for Labour "given up on the notion of changing much".
    That's what government is.
This discussion has been closed.