politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The end of the honeymoon

Charles said:

Scott_xP said:

Charles said:

The media keeps saying he’s the de facto PM. But he’s not. He’s an influential adviser but not the PM.

What distinguishes the PM from any other minister?

He sets the agenda. That's Cummings, no BoZo.

He can hire and fire ministers. That's Cummings, no BoZo.

That's why people call him the de facto PM. He exercises the functions of the role.

That’s what the media says

No one knows what happens behind closed doors

Tres said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Foxy said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Foxy said:

StuartDickson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I would not be surprised to see crossover sooner rather than later.

It is clear most people are still very worried by covid and nearly half the country have been financially protected by employment in the public sector or furloughed

Boris has paid a big price for Cummings and his brand has taken a hit

Whether this matters is not clear and the focus over the next few months will be on the economy, help for those suffering, and if covid can be contained

Also Boris will be in place at the end of the year and responsible for the deal or no deal outcome of brexit

The next election is 4 years away and many variable factors will determine just how that election pans out but I am far less worried now Corbyn is history

How might a Biden presidency affect Johnson administration (where have I heard THAT before?) My sense is that election of Bill Clinton was not fatal to John Major, but it didn't do him any favors AND it gave Tony Blair an obvious role model.

Keir Stumer sorta comes across like a Joe Biden with youthful vigor - somewhat like Joe himself back when he was borking Bork. Granted without Biden's working-class cred, but also without a propensity for foot-in-mouth disease.

It will be too late to effect brexit but I would hope it would help to restore relationships, not just here in the UK but worldwide after the disaster that is Trump

Hopefully the US will become a less confrontational country and to be honest any future trade deal would no doubt be based on firmer grounds than anything with Trump

As for Starmer he is far more acceptable than Corbyn, but I very much doubt he will be up against Boris. I hope 2021 will see Boris step away as he will have concluded Brexit and I doubt he is in it for the longhaul anyway

His self-delusion about being the new Churchill would tend to indicate otherwise.

Yes, I wouldnt expect the polls to change much before the end of the year.

For most people it doesn't really feel that Brexit is done. There has been no discernable change yet, so Johnson keeps that "Get Brexit Done" vote. That all changes in January. Where those votes go then will be interesting, but I expect them to fade.The economic hit and misery will be in full force by then too. Sub 30% Tory vote very possible by then.

Pinning a lot of hopes on this 'economic hit and misery' aren't you?

No, I find it profoundly depressing talking to my patients about it all. One this week had a daughter made redundant from a London fashion house, unable to get work anywhere. A furniture shop owner who hasn't sold anything for months, an employee at the Leicester Theatre that went into administration, etc etc. All this before furlough ends too.

And everyone knows that this is an issue across the world due to covid

Rishi Sunak is to address this later this week

The big problem this government seems to have that it believes it can rule by just giving speeches and annoucements rather than actually implementing the things they announce.

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

The administration of Wigan Athletic looks, errr, dodgy:

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/jul/02/story-of-how-wigan-collapsed-into-administration-au-yeung-investigation

It gets worse.

The relegation battle came to the forefront on Thursday evening, when EFL chairman Rick Parry was covertly recorded telling a football fan about “all sorts of rumours” surrounding Wigan’s situation. Parry said: “There are rumours that there is a bet in the Philippines on them being relegated because the previous owner (Dr Stanley Choi) has got gambling interests in the Philippines.”

At a press conference on Thursday, administrator Krasner was asked by a Daily Telegraph journalist if he was aware of the origins of the change of ownership and presumably referencing rumours also passed to The Athletic, asked whether the club had been lost via gambling.

Krasner replied: “I have no paperwork, nobody has mentioned gambling before this conversation. Any evidence would be obliged.”

Gunnercooke, the legal representatives of IEC in the UK, declined to comment on either point and indeed all questions posed by The Athletic.

https://theathletic.co.uk/1907722/2020/07/04/wigan-athletic-royle-efl-paul-cook-hong-kong-yeung/

Mexicanpete said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Foxy said:

StuartDickson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I would not be surprised to see crossover sooner rather than later.

It is clear most people are still very worried by covid and nearly half the country have been financially protected by employment in the public sector or furloughed

Boris has paid a big price for Cummings and his brand has taken a hit

Whether this matters is not clear and the focus over the next few months will be on the economy, help for those suffering, and if covid can be contained

Also Boris will be in place at the end of the year and responsible for the deal or no deal outcome of brexit

The next election is 4 years away and many variable factors will determine just how that election pans out but I am far less worried now Corbyn is history

How might a Biden presidency affect Johnson administration (where have I heard THAT before?) My sense is that election of Bill Clinton was not fatal to John Major, but it didn't do him any favors AND it gave Tony Blair an obvious role model.

Keir Stumer sorta comes across like a Joe Biden with youthful vigor - somewhat like Joe himself back when he was borking Bork. Granted without Biden's working-class cred, but also without a propensity for foot-in-mouth disease.

It will be too late to effect brexit but I would hope it would help to restore relationships, not just here in the UK but worldwide after the disaster that is Trump

Hopefully the US will become a less confrontational country and to be honest any future trade deal would no doubt be based on firmer grounds than anything with Trump

As for Starmer he is far more acceptable than Corbyn, but I very much doubt he will be up against Boris. I hope 2021 will see Boris step away as he will have concluded Brexit and I doubt he is in it for the longhaul anyway

His self-delusion about being the new Churchill would tend to indicate otherwise.

Yes, I wouldnt expect the polls to change much before the end of the year.

For most people it doesn't really feel that Brexit is done. There has been no discernable change yet, so Johnson keeps that "Get Brexit Done" vote. That all changes in January. Where those votes go then will be interesting, but I expect them to fade.The economic hit and misery will be in full force by then too. Sub 30% Tory vote very possible by then.

Pinning a lot of hopes on this 'economic hit and misery' aren't you?

What a ridiculous assertion.

If you do not see that train coming down the track you must have your eyes closed.

The key is how the government handles the impact. I do not see how the best government in the world successfully mitigates the effect of the post-Covid shock. And this government is certainly not world beating.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

malcolmg said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Charles said:

Scott_xP said:

Charles said:

The media keeps saying he’s the de facto PM. But he’s not. He’s an influential adviser but not the PM.

What distinguishes the PM from any other minister?

He sets the agenda. That's Cummings, no BoZo.

He can hire and fire ministers. That's Cummings, no BoZo.

That's why people call him the de facto PM. He exercises the functions of the role.

That’s what the media says

No one knows what happens behind closed doors

And there is an obsession with Cummings due to brexit, but if the reports are to be believed he forced lockdown before the scientists moved on it, and may even have saved thousands of lives

The public enquiry will be fascinating and Cummings role in covid 19

G you have lost the plot supporting these shysters. Cummings supported nothing but himself and more likely has caused thousands of deaths. At best he is an arrogant little sh*t with regards only for himself.

You are putting your own unique anti everyone but SNP narrative into this Malc and ignoring that there is a growing belief Cummings intervened bringing lockdown forward and ironically with the approval of Nicola no less

I simply do not know enough about Cummings and his beliefs but I absolutely do believe he should have resigned over his trip to Durham

Scott_xP said:

Charles said:

The media keeps saying he’s the de facto PM. But he’s not. He’s an influential adviser but not the PM.

What distinguishes the PM from any other minister?

He sets the agenda. That's Cummings, no BoZo.

He can hire and fire ministers. That's Cummings, no BoZo.

That's why people call him the de facto PM. He exercises the functions of the role.

malcolmg said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

malcolmg said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Charles said:

Scott_xP said:

Charles said:

The media keeps saying he’s the de facto PM. But he’s not. He’s an influential adviser but not the PM.

What distinguishes the PM from any other minister?

He sets the agenda. That's Cummings, no BoZo.

He can hire and fire ministers. That's Cummings, no BoZo.

That's why people call him the de facto PM. He exercises the functions of the role.

That’s what the media says

No one knows what happens behind closed doors

And there is an obsession with Cummings due to brexit, but if the reports are to be believed he forced lockdown before the scientists moved on it, and may even have saved thousands of lives

The public enquiry will be fascinating and Cummings role in covid 19

G you have lost the plot supporting these shysters. Cummings supported nothing but himself and more likely has caused thousands of deaths. At best he is an arrogant little sh*t with regards only for himself.

You are putting your own unique anti everyone but SNP narrative into this Malc and ignoring that there is a growing belief Cummings intervened bringing lockdown forward and ironically with the approval of Nicola no less

I simply do not know enough about Cummings and his beliefs but I absolutely do believe he should have resigned over his trip to Durham

G, it has no connection with SNP or my interest in independence. It is plain to see that Cummings should have no place running the country. England voted in a known lying cheating scoundrel and he leaves the work to this odious little creep, anyone with an ounce of principles or morals would have resigned and similarly a real PM would have sacked him.

kle4 said:

StuartDickson said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

StuartDickson said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I would not be surprised to see crossover sooner rather than later.

It is clear most people are still very worried by covid and nearly half the country have been financially protected by employment in the public sector or furloughed

Boris has paid a big price for Cummings and his brand has taken a hit

Whether this matters is not clear and the focus over the next few months will be on the economy, help for those suffering, and if covid can be contained

Also Boris will be in place at the end of the year and responsible for the deal or no deal outcome of brexit

The next election is 4 years away and many variable factors will determine just how that election pans out but I am far less worried now Corbyn is history

How might a Biden presidency affect Johnson administration (where have I heard THAT before?) My sense is that election of Bill Clinton was not fatal to John Major, but it didn't do him any favors AND it gave Tony Blair an obvious role model.

Keir Stumer sorta comes across like a Joe Biden with youthful vigor - somewhat like Joe himself back when he was borking Bork. Granted without Biden's working-class cred, but also without a propensity for foot-in-mouth disease.

“...without Biden's working-class cred...”

Huh?

A quick glance at Keith Starmer’s early life clearly indicates that he is most certainly “working class” (which was still a thing in England in the 1960s).

He was obviously very bright, and worked his way towards a good career.

One of the lies that the English tell themselves is that they believe in aspiration. The national motto should be Know Your Place.

The same social prejudice exists in lots of countries.

In Scotland we say “Ah kent yer faither.”

In Australia they have tall poppy syndrome.

In Sweden we have jantelagen.

It wouldn’t surprise me if every nation and language on the planet had this concept.

Seems right. It feels like a weird kind of exceptionalism to believe ones nation is exceptional, in positive and negative ways. It will be the case to a degree, we are all unique snowflakes and what have you, but not as much as we think especially with broad issues of society.

bigjohnowls said:

squareroot2 said:

ydoethur said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

OldKingCole said:

I've said before that the Cummings episode ran very deep. People still make jokes about it, and now there are jokes about PM Johnson.
And they're not sympathetic jokes, either.

The whole Cummings situation - not just the Durham incident - is a structural disadvantage for the government. We keep hearing how he is the de facto PM. But nobody voted for him. In our political system, if you want that kind of political power you should stand for office. People don't like it.

Or be so brilliant that people will stretch a point.

Cummings thinks he meets this criteria, of course.

It would matter less if he was correct.

What about Alastair Campbell. He ruled by fear.

and surprise

Foxy said:

Mexicanpete said:

kle4 said:

StuartDickson said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I would not be surprised to see crossover sooner rather than later.

It is clear most people are still very worried by covid and nearly half the country have been financially protected by employment in the public sector or furloughed

Boris has paid a big price for Cummings and his brand has taken a hit

Whether this matters is not clear and the focus over the next few months will be on the economy, help for those suffering, and if covid can be contained

Also Boris will be in place at the end of the year and responsible for the deal or no deal outcome of brexit

The next election is 4 years away and many variable factors will determine just how that election pans out but I am far less worried now Corbyn is history

How might a Biden presidency affect Johnson administration (where have I heard THAT before?) My sense is that election of Bill Clinton was not fatal to John Major, but it didn't do him any favors AND it gave Tony Blair an obvious role model.

Keir Stumer sorta comes across like a Joe Biden with youthful vigor - somewhat like Joe himself back when he was borking Bork. Granted without Biden's working-class cred, but also without a propensity for foot-in-mouth disease.

“...without Biden's working-class cred...”

Huh?

A quick glance at Keith Starmer’s early life clearly indicates that he is most certainly “working class” (which was still a thing in England in the 1960s).

He was obviously very bright, and worked his way towards a good career.

Having cred with the working class has little to do with whether said person is or was working class themselves. People would laugh if Boris claimed to speak for the working class but the working class voters wouldnt. And Corbyn was a middle class guy whod spent his career at impotent protests but people thought he was the greatest labour leader ever.

So I think Starmers upbringing is entirely irrelevant to his appeal and cred. He'll do better with the working class because of time, that he's normal and competent.

To shoot your final point down in flames, can I introduce Boris Johnson? Neither normal, nor competent but loved by the working classes.

Is he "loved by the working classes"?

I am not convinced. More seen as a way to further Brexity wet dreams by a certain subsection. In the end they will tar and feather him for betrayal.

Casino_Royale said:

On topic, I now expect Labour to form the next government.

I feel it in my bones: Boris is incompetent and will take the Tory brand down with him, whilst Starmer knows what he's doing.

This article shows poll-leads mean jack. They can be massive, and then evaporate in weeks - and the reverse can happen too.

But, I expect clear Labour leads in 2021 once Brexit has taken its final form, the economy continues to struggle to recover and the Government struggles to deliver its "levelling up" projects.

Casino_Royale said:

IshmaelZ said:

I give it a couple of months, and I think Jenrick and corruption will be major factors.

Corruption, self-interest, incompetence, bad economy, "time for a change".. decent Labour leader etc.

Remind you of something?

It could be a solid Labour win in 2024 (not a landslide, because.. culture wars) but very solid - say, 350 seats or so.

Foxy said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Foxy said:

StuartDickson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I would not be surprised to see crossover sooner rather than later.

It is clear most people are still very worried by covid and nearly half the country have been financially protected by employment in the public sector or furloughed

Boris has paid a big price for Cummings and his brand has taken a hit

Whether this matters is not clear and the focus over the next few months will be on the economy, help for those suffering, and if covid can be contained

Also Boris will be in place at the end of the year and responsible for the deal or no deal outcome of brexit

The next election is 4 years away and many variable factors will determine just how that election pans out but I am far less worried now Corbyn is history

How might a Biden presidency affect Johnson administration (where have I heard THAT before?) My sense is that election of Bill Clinton was not fatal to John Major, but it didn't do him any favors AND it gave Tony Blair an obvious role model.

Keir Stumer sorta comes across like a Joe Biden with youthful vigor - somewhat like Joe himself back when he was borking Bork. Granted without Biden's working-class cred, but also without a propensity for foot-in-mouth disease.

It will be too late to effect brexit but I would hope it would help to restore relationships, not just here in the UK but worldwide after the disaster that is Trump

Hopefully the US will become a less confrontational country and to be honest any future trade deal would no doubt be based on firmer grounds than anything with Trump

As for Starmer he is far more acceptable than Corbyn, but I very much doubt he will be up against Boris. I hope 2021 will see Boris step away as he will have concluded Brexit and I doubt he is in it for the longhaul anyway

His self-delusion about being the new Churchill would tend to indicate otherwise.

Yes, I wouldnt expect the polls to change much before the end of the year.

For most people it doesn't really feel that Brexit is done. There has been no discernable change yet, so Johnson keeps that "Get Brexit Done" vote. That all changes in January. Where those votes go then will be interesting, but I expect them to fade.The economic hit and misery will be in full force by then too. Sub 30% Tory vote very possible by then.

Pinning a lot of hopes on this 'economic hit and misery' aren't you?

No, I find it profoundly depressing talking to my patients about it all. One this week had a daughter made redundant from a London fashion house, unable to get work anywhere. A furniture shop owner who hasn't sold anything for months, an employee at the Leicester Theatre that went into administration, etc etc. All this before furlough ends too.

Foxy said:

Mexicanpete said:

kle4 said:

StuartDickson said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I would not be surprised to see crossover sooner rather than later.

It is clear most people are still very worried by covid and nearly half the country have been financially protected by employment in the public sector or furloughed

Boris has paid a big price for Cummings and his brand has taken a hit

Whether this matters is not clear and the focus over the next few months will be on the economy, help for those suffering, and if covid can be contained

Also Boris will be in place at the end of the year and responsible for the deal or no deal outcome of brexit

The next election is 4 years away and many variable factors will determine just how that election pans out but I am far less worried now Corbyn is history

How might a Biden presidency affect Johnson administration (where have I heard THAT before?) My sense is that election of Bill Clinton was not fatal to John Major, but it didn't do him any favors AND it gave Tony Blair an obvious role model.

Keir Stumer sorta comes across like a Joe Biden with youthful vigor - somewhat like Joe himself back when he was borking Bork. Granted without Biden's working-class cred, but also without a propensity for foot-in-mouth disease.

“...without Biden's working-class cred...”

Huh?

A quick glance at Keith Starmer’s early life clearly indicates that he is most certainly “working class” (which was still a thing in England in the 1960s).

He was obviously very bright, and worked his way towards a good career.

Having cred with the working class has little to do with whether said person is or was working class themselves. People would laugh if Boris claimed to speak for the working class but the working class voters wouldnt. And Corbyn was a middle class guy whod spent his career at impotent protests but people thought he was the greatest labour leader ever.

So I think Starmers upbringing is entirely irrelevant to his appeal and cred. He'll do better with the working class because of time, that he's normal and competent.

To shoot your final point down in flames, can I introduce Boris Johnson? Neither normal, nor competent but loved by the working classes.

Is he "loved by the working classes"?

I am not convinced. More seen as a way to further Brexity wet dreams by a certain subsection. In the end they will tar and feather him for betrayal.

Mexicanpete said:

kle4 said:

Mexicanpete said:

kle4 said:

StuartDickson said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I would not be surprised to see crossover sooner rather than later.

It is clear most people are still very worried by covid and nearly half the country have been financially protected by employment in the public sector or furloughed

Boris has paid a big price for Cummings and his brand has taken a hit

Whether this matters is not clear and the focus over the next few months will be on the economy, help for those suffering, and if covid can be contained

Also Boris will be in place at the end of the year and responsible for the deal or no deal outcome of brexit

The next election is 4 years away and many variable factors will determine just how that election pans out but I am far less worried now Corbyn is history

How might a Biden presidency affect Johnson administration (where have I heard THAT before?) My sense is that election of Bill Clinton was not fatal to John Major, but it didn't do him any favors AND it gave Tony Blair an obvious role model.

Keir Stumer sorta comes across like a Joe Biden with youthful vigor - somewhat like Joe himself back when he was borking Bork. Granted without Biden's working-class cred, but also without a propensity for foot-in-mouth disease.

“...without Biden's working-class cred...”

Huh?

A quick glance at Keith Starmer’s early life clearly indicates that he is most certainly “working class” (which was still a thing in England in the 1960s).

He was obviously very bright, and worked his way towards a good career.

Having cred with the working class has little to do with whether said person is or was working class themselves. People would laugh if Boris claimed to speak for the working class but the working class voters wouldnt. And Corbyn was a middle class guy whod spent his career at impotent protests but people thought he was the greatest labour leader ever.

So I think Starmers upbringing is entirely irrelevant to his appeal and cred. He'll do better with the working class because of time, that he's normal and competent.

To shoot your final point down in flames, can I introduce Boris Johnson? Neither normal, nor competent but loved by the working classes.

Thst doesn't shoot my point down, since I wasn't saying you need that to be loved by the working classes, I meant that's why he will do better than Corbyn with the working classes. The reference to time was to suggest also he will do better simply because itll be after yet more years of government, but not necessarily that he'll win the working classes, just do better as wont repel them.

You may be right. But Starmer underestimates Johnson's appeal to certain sectors of society at his peril.

Johnson's "Benny Hill" persona works well in the wider world and Johnson knows how to work his dog whistle masterfully.

Black_Rook said:

Foxy said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Foxy said:

StuartDickson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I would not be surprised to see crossover sooner rather than later.

It is clear most people are still very worried by covid and nearly half the country have been financially protected by employment in the public sector or furloughed

Boris has paid a big price for Cummings and his brand has taken a hit

Whether this matters is not clear and the focus over the next few months will be on the economy, help for those suffering, and if covid can be contained

Also Boris will be in place at the end of the year and responsible for the deal or no deal outcome of brexit

The next election is 4 years away and many variable factors will determine just how that election pans out but I am far less worried now Corbyn is history

How might a Biden presidency affect Johnson administration (where have I heard THAT before?) My sense is that election of Bill Clinton was not fatal to John Major, but it didn't do him any favors AND it gave Tony Blair an obvious role model.

Keir Stumer sorta comes across like a Joe Biden with youthful vigor - somewhat like Joe himself back when he was borking Bork. Granted without Biden's working-class cred, but also without a propensity for foot-in-mouth disease.

It will be too late to effect brexit but I would hope it would help to restore relationships, not just here in the UK but worldwide after the disaster that is Trump

Hopefully the US will become a less confrontational country and to be honest any future trade deal would no doubt be based on firmer grounds than anything with Trump

As for Starmer he is far more acceptable than Corbyn, but I very much doubt he will be up against Boris. I hope 2021 will see Boris step away as he will have concluded Brexit and I doubt he is in it for the longhaul anyway

His self-delusion about being the new Churchill would tend to indicate otherwise.

Yes, I wouldnt expect the polls to change much before the end of the year.

For most people it doesn't really feel that Brexit is done. There has been no discernable change yet, so Johnson keeps that "Get Brexit Done" vote. That all changes in January. Where those votes go then will be interesting, but I expect them to fade.The economic hit and misery will be in full force by then too. Sub 30% Tory vote very possible by then.

Pinning a lot of hopes on this 'economic hit and misery' aren't you?

No, I find it profoundly depressing talking to my patients about it all. One this week had a daughter made redundant from a London fashion house, unable to get work anywhere. A furniture shop owner who hasn't sold anything for months, an employee at the Leicester Theatre that went into administration, etc etc. All this before furlough ends too.

If anything I think we grossly underestimate the long-term damage that this crisis is going to inflict. It's not just the tsunami of job losses, which is already underway, but it's the large fraction of those people who are going to be out of work for a very long time and may, even if they are relatively young, never work again. Whatever sort of recovery we eventually have and however strong or weak that turns out to be, I simply don't see where all the jobs are going to come from. Non-grocery retail is collapsing, the supermarkets have all the shelf-stackers they need, I think we can probably assume that we're entering a period of decreased consumerism coupled with increased automation, and there are really only so many of us that can be employed delivering Amazon parcels and takeaway dinners.

I am 44 and currently working for a pretty decent wage but in quite a niche occupation (basically I'm very useful where I am but feel my transferable skills are rather limited.) As long as I can stay put where I am I'll be fine, but if I'm made redundant I'm afraid I'll end up slung on the scrapheap for good. I suspect that I'm far from alone.

Government is probably going to have to address a major structural unemployment problem going forward, and if the private sector won't solve it through creating an awful lot of new jobs (and I have my doubts that it can do so on the vast scale required,) then that will mean the state having to pay people to do something through creating make work schemes, or pay them to do nothing through benefits that are sufficient to live on, or tolerate widespread poverty.

kinabalu said:

Casino_Royale said:

IshmaelZ said:

I give it a couple of months, and I think Jenrick and corruption will be major factors.

Corruption, self-interest, incompetence, bad economy, "time for a change".. decent Labour leader etc.

Remind you of something?

It could be a solid Labour win in 2024 (not a landslide, because.. culture wars) but very solid - say, 350 seats or so.

Yep. The ruling out of a Labour majority I often come across is imo stale thinking.

ydoethur said:

kinabalu said:

Casino_Royale said:

IshmaelZ said:

I give it a couple of months, and I think Jenrick and corruption will be major factors.

Corruption, self-interest, incompetence, bad economy, "time for a change".. decent Labour leader etc.

Remind you of something?

It could be a solid Labour win in 2024 (not a landslide, because.. culture wars) but very solid - say, 350 seats or so.

Yep. The ruling out of a Labour majority I often come across is imo stale thinking.

To get a majority of one Starmer needs to make a net gain of 124 seats.

To put that in context, only one party has gained that many seats at a single election since the Second World War - Tony Blair in 1997, who gained 145.

It has only happened twice more in the age of universal suffrage - in 1931, when the Conservatives gained 210 seats, and 1945 (during the war but very near the end of it) when Labour gained 239 seats.

That is not to say it is impossible. This government is already a shambles and the shit has yet to really hit the fan. Starmer, meanwhile, is exuding calm competence, moderation and dignity.

It is however going to be bloody difficult and Starmer would be wise not to raise any expectations he will struggle to meet.

rottenborough said:

ydoethur said:

kinabalu said:

Casino_Royale said:

IshmaelZ said:

I give it a couple of months, and I think Jenrick and corruption will be major factors.

Corruption, self-interest, incompetence, bad economy, "time for a change".. decent Labour leader etc.

Remind you of something?

It could be a solid Labour win in 2024 (not a landslide, because.. culture wars) but very solid - say, 350 seats or so.

Yep. The ruling out of a Labour majority I often come across is imo stale thinking.

To get a majority of one Starmer needs to make a net gain of 124 seats.

To put that in context, only one party has gained that many seats at a single election since the Second World War - Tony Blair in 1997, who gained 145.

It has only happened twice more in the age of universal suffrage - in 1931, when the Conservatives gained 210 seats, and 1945 (during the war but very near the end of it) when Labour gained 239 seats.

That is not to say it is impossible. This government is already a shambles and the shit has yet to really hit the fan. Starmer, meanwhile, is exuding calm competence, moderation and dignity.

It is however going to be bloody difficult and Starmer would be wise not to raise any expectations he will struggle to meet.

Totally agree. But the level of economic shit about to hit could be sufficient to produce a massive swing. We will see.

Johnson's 'administration' will be deeply, deeply unpopular by next summer imho.

rottenborough said:

ydoethur said:

kinabalu said:

Casino_Royale said:

IshmaelZ said:

I give it a couple of months, and I think Jenrick and corruption will be major factors.

Corruption, self-interest, incompetence, bad economy, "time for a change".. decent Labour leader etc.

Remind you of something?

It could be a solid Labour win in 2024 (not a landslide, because.. culture wars) but very solid - say, 350 seats or so.

Yep. The ruling out of a Labour majority I often come across is imo stale thinking.

To get a majority of one Starmer needs to make a net gain of 124 seats.

To put that in context, only one party has gained that many seats at a single election since the Second World War - Tony Blair in 1997, who gained 145.

It has only happened twice more in the age of universal suffrage - in 1931, when the Conservatives gained 210 seats, and 1945 (during the war but very near the end of it) when Labour gained 239 seats.

That is not to say it is impossible. This government is already a shambles and the shit has yet to really hit the fan. Starmer, meanwhile, is exuding calm competence, moderation and dignity.

It is however going to be bloody difficult and Starmer would be wise not to raise any expectations he will struggle to meet.

Totally agree. But the level of economic shit about to hit could be sufficient to produce a massive swing. We will see.

Johnson's 'administration' will be deeply, deeply unpopular by next summer imho.

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1279330889554628608

Alistair said:

Casino_Royale said:

Trump's wading into the culture wars - defending statues and monuments:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53284607


Personally, I think there's some mileage in this for him. The reaction in the USA has been far worse than here.

This is pure Stephen Miller, and it will go down well with his core but it will not get him the suburban college educated whites that are slipping away from him.

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

Mexicanpete said:

kle4 said:

StuartDickson said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I would not be surprised to see crossover sooner rather than later.

It is clear most people are still very worried by covid and nearly half the country have been financially protected by employment in the public sector or furloughed

Boris has paid a big price for Cummings and his brand has taken a hit

Whether this matters is not clear and the focus over the next few months will be on the economy, help for those suffering, and if covid can be contained

Also Boris will be in place at the end of the year and responsible for the deal or no deal outcome of brexit

The next election is 4 years away and many variable factors will determine just how that election pans out but I am far less worried now Corbyn is history

How might a Biden presidency affect Johnson administration (where have I heard THAT before?) My sense is that election of Bill Clinton was not fatal to John Major, but it didn't do him any favors AND it gave Tony Blair an obvious role model.

Keir Stumer sorta comes across like a Joe Biden with youthful vigor - somewhat like Joe himself back when he was borking Bork. Granted without Biden's working-class cred, but also without a propensity for foot-in-mouth disease.

“...without Biden's working-class cred...”

Huh?

A quick glance at Keith Starmer’s early life clearly indicates that he is most certainly “working class” (which was still a thing in England in the 1960s).

He was obviously very bright, and worked his way towards a good career.

Having cred with the working class has little to do with whether said person is or was working class themselves. People would laugh if Boris claimed to speak for the working class but the working class voters wouldnt. And Corbyn was a middle class guy whod spent his career at impotent protests but people thought he was the greatest labour leader ever.

So I think Starmers upbringing is entirely irrelevant to his appeal and cred. He'll do better with the working class because of time, that he's normal and competent.

To shoot your final point down in flames, can I introduce Boris Johnson? Neither normal, nor competent but loved by the working classes.

Is he "loved by the working classes"?

I am not convinced. More seen as a way to further Brexity wet dreams by a certain subsection. In the end they will tar and feather him for betrayal.

What difference does it make? What does being loved by them even mean? They voted for him in huge numbers, and obviously voters turn away in the end no matter who you are so whether we use the word love or not hardly matters. They trusted him sufficiently to win. That doesn't change if some day they change they mind.

Foxy said:

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

Mexicanpete said:

kle4 said:

StuartDickson said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I would not be surprised to see crossover sooner rather than later.

It is clear most people are still very worried by covid and nearly half the country have been financially protected by employment in the public sector or furloughed

Boris has paid a big price for Cummings and his brand has taken a hit

Whether this matters is not clear and the focus over the next few months will be on the economy, help for those suffering, and if covid can be contained

Also Boris will be in place at the end of the year and responsible for the deal or no deal outcome of brexit

The next election is 4 years away and many variable factors will determine just how that election pans out but I am far less worried now Corbyn is history

How might a Biden presidency affect Johnson administration (where have I heard THAT before?) My sense is that election of Bill Clinton was not fatal to John Major, but it didn't do him any favors AND it gave Tony Blair an obvious role model.

Keir Stumer sorta comes across like a Joe Biden with youthful vigor - somewhat like Joe himself back when he was borking Bork. Granted without Biden's working-class cred, but also without a propensity for foot-in-mouth disease.

“...without Biden's working-class cred...”

Huh?

A quick glance at Keith Starmer’s early life clearly indicates that he is most certainly “working class” (which was still a thing in England in the 1960s).

He was obviously very bright, and worked his way towards a good career.

Having cred with the working class has little to do with whether said person is or was working class themselves. People would laugh if Boris claimed to speak for the working class but the working class voters wouldnt. And Corbyn was a middle class guy whod spent his career at impotent protests but people thought he was the greatest labour leader ever.

So I think Starmers upbringing is entirely irrelevant to his appeal and cred. He'll do better with the working class because of time, that he's normal and competent.

To shoot your final point down in flames, can I introduce Boris Johnson? Neither normal, nor competent but loved by the working classes.

Is he "loved by the working classes"?

I am not convinced. More seen as a way to further Brexity wet dreams by a certain subsection. In the end they will tar and feather him for betrayal.

What difference does it make? What does being loved by them even mean? They voted for him in huge numbers, and obviously voters turn away in the end no matter who you are so whether we use the word love or not hardly matters. They trusted him sufficiently to win. That doesn't change if some day they change they mind.

I would see love as a term that means an enduring commitment. It looks more like a one night stand to me.

Foredeck tugging obsequience to the public school boys is still a thing in the English working classes., however much I find it incomprehensible.

Foxy said:

Mexicanpete said:

kle4 said:

StuartDickson said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I would not be surprised to see crossover sooner rather than later.

It is clear most people are still very worried by covid and nearly half the country have been financially protected by employment in the public sector or furloughed

Boris has paid a big price for Cummings and his brand has taken a hit

Whether this matters is not clear and the focus over the next few months will be on the economy, help for those suffering, and if covid can be contained

Also Boris will be in place at the end of the year and responsible for the deal or no deal outcome of brexit

The next election is 4 years away and many variable factors will determine just how that election pans out but I am far less worried now Corbyn is history

How might a Biden presidency affect Johnson administration (where have I heard THAT before?) My sense is that election of Bill Clinton was not fatal to John Major, but it didn't do him any favors AND it gave Tony Blair an obvious role model.

Keir Stumer sorta comes across like a Joe Biden with youthful vigor - somewhat like Joe himself back when he was borking Bork. Granted without Biden's working-class cred, but also without a propensity for foot-in-mouth disease.

“...without Biden's working-class cred...”

Huh?

A quick glance at Keith Starmer’s early life clearly indicates that he is most certainly “working class” (which was still a thing in England in the 1960s).

He was obviously very bright, and worked his way towards a good career.

Having cred with the working class has little to do with whether said person is or was working class themselves. People would laugh if Boris claimed to speak for the working class but the working class voters wouldnt. And Corbyn was a middle class guy whod spent his career at impotent protests but people thought he was the greatest labour leader ever.

So I think Starmers upbringing is entirely irrelevant to his appeal and cred. He'll do better with the working class because of time, that he's normal and competent.

To shoot your final point down in flames, can I introduce Boris Johnson? Neither normal, nor competent but loved by the working classes.

Is he "loved by the working classes"?

I am not convinced. More seen as a way to further Brexity wet dreams by a certain subsection. In the end they will tar and feather him for betrayal.

ydoethur said:

Mexicanpete said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1279330889554628608

If Johnson dodges this bullet with "pub chaos" etched into it tonight, he will be very lucky indeed.

Albeit it cuts two ways for the country:

1) We don’t need more chaos or infections

2) In the long run, it would be better for us if Johnson were out of Downing Street.

ydoethur said:

Mexicanpete said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1279330889554628608

If Johnson dodges this bullet with "pub chaos" etched into it tonight, he will be very lucky indeed.

Albeit it cuts two ways for the country:

1) We don’t need more chaos or infections

2) In the long run, it would be better for us if Johnson were out of Downing Street.

rottenborough said:

ydoethur said:

Mexicanpete said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1279330889554628608

If Johnson dodges this bullet with "pub chaos" etched into it tonight, he will be very lucky indeed.

Albeit it cuts two ways for the country:

1) We don’t need more chaos or infections

2) In the long run, it would be better for us if Johnson were out of Downing Street.

He survives pub chaos fairly easily.

He'll struggle to survive a consequent second wave that other european countries don't have. (although we shouldn't underestimate what a limpet he will be in office).

ydoethur said:

Mexicanpete said:

Foxy said:

Mexicanpete said:

kle4 said:

StuartDickson said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I would not be surprised to see crossover sooner rather than later.

It is clear most people are still very worried by covid and nearly half the country have been financially protected by employment in the public sector or furloughed

Boris has paid a big price for Cummings and his brand has taken a hit

Whether this matters is not clear and the focus over the next few months will be on the economy, help for those suffering, and if covid can be contained

Also Boris will be in place at the end of the year and responsible for the deal or no deal outcome of brexit

The next election is 4 years away and many variable factors will determine just how that election pans out but I am far less worried now Corbyn is history

How might a Biden presidency affect Johnson administration (where have I heard THAT before?) My sense is that election of Bill Clinton was not fatal to John Major, but it didn't do him any favors AND it gave Tony Blair an obvious role model.

Keir Stumer sorta comes across like a Joe Biden with youthful vigor - somewhat like Joe himself back when he was borking Bork. Granted without Biden's working-class cred, but also without a propensity for foot-in-mouth disease.

“...without Biden's working-class cred...”

Huh?

A quick glance at Keith Starmer’s early life clearly indicates that he is most certainly “working class” (which was still a thing in England in the 1960s).

He was obviously very bright, and worked his way towards a good career.

Having cred with the working class has little to do with whether said person is or was working class themselves. People would laugh if Boris claimed to speak for the working class but the working class voters wouldnt. And Corbyn was a middle class guy whod spent his career at impotent protests but people thought he was the greatest labour leader ever.

So I think Starmers upbringing is entirely irrelevant to his appeal and cred. He'll do better with the working class because of time, that he's normal and competent.

To shoot your final point down in flames, can I introduce Boris Johnson? Neither normal, nor competent but loved by the working classes.

Is he "loved by the working classes"?

I am not convinced. More seen as a way to further Brexity wet dreams by a certain subsection. In the end they will tar and feather him for betrayal.

I mix with a variet of people, those who in the past I would have had as Wilsonian Labourites, won't have a bad word said for Johnson.

Conversely those I would have had down as Heathite Tories can't bear Johnson.

I won’t have a bad word said against Johnson.

Anything less than a whole paragraph does him less than justice.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Charles said:

Scott_xP said:

Charles said:

The media keeps saying he’s the de facto PM. But he’s not. He’s an influential adviser but not the PM.

What distinguishes the PM from any other minister?

He sets the agenda. That's Cummings, no BoZo.

He can hire and fire ministers. That's Cummings, no BoZo.

That's why people call him the de facto PM. He exercises the functions of the role.

That’s what the media says

No one knows what happens behind closed doors

Well that's all right then.

Foxy said:

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

Mexicanpete said:

kle4 said:

StuartDickson said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I would not be surprised to see crossover sooner rather than later.

It is clear most people are still very worried by covid and nearly half the country have been financially protected by employment in the public sector or furloughed

Boris has paid a big price for Cummings and his brand has taken a hit

Whether this matters is not clear and the focus over the next few months will be on the economy, help for those suffering, and if covid can be contained

Also Boris will be in place at the end of the year and responsible for the deal or no deal outcome of brexit

The next election is 4 years away and many variable factors will determine just how that election pans out but I am far less worried now Corbyn is history

How might a Biden presidency affect Johnson administration (where have I heard THAT before?) My sense is that election of Bill Clinton was not fatal to John Major, but it didn't do him any favors AND it gave Tony Blair an obvious role model.

Keir Stumer sorta comes across like a Joe Biden with youthful vigor - somewhat like Joe himself back when he was borking Bork. Granted without Biden's working-class cred, but also without a propensity for foot-in-mouth disease.

“...without Biden's working-class cred...”

Huh?

A quick glance at Keith Starmer’s early life clearly indicates that he is most certainly “working class” (which was still a thing in England in the 1960s).

He was obviously very bright, and worked his way towards a good career.

Having cred with the working class has little to do with whether said person is or was working class themselves. People would laugh if Boris claimed to speak for the working class but the working class voters wouldnt. And Corbyn was a middle class guy whod spent his career at impotent protests but people thought he was the greatest labour leader ever.

So I think Starmers upbringing is entirely irrelevant to his appeal and cred. He'll do better with the working class because of time, that he's normal and competent.

To shoot your final point down in flames, can I introduce Boris Johnson? Neither normal, nor competent but loved by the working classes.

Is he "loved by the working classes"?

I am not convinced. More seen as a way to further Brexity wet dreams by a certain subsection. In the end they will tar and feather him for betrayal.

What difference does it make? What does being loved by them even mean? They voted for him in huge numbers, and obviously voters turn away in the end no matter who you are so whether we use the word love or not hardly matters. They trusted him sufficiently to win. That doesn't change if some day they change they mind.

I would see love as a term that means an enduring commitment. It looks more like a one night stand to me.

Foredeck tugging obsequience to the public school boys is still a thing in the English working classes., however much I find it incomprehensible.

rottenborough said:

Alistair said:

Casino_Royale said:

Trump's wading into the culture wars - defending statues and monuments:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53284607


Personally, I think there's some mileage in this for him. The reaction in the USA has been far worse than here.

This is pure Stephen Miller, and it will go down well with his core but it will not get him the suburban college educated whites that are slipping away from him.

They are gone. It's the white male non-college he needs to hold onto in massive numbers (and these are slipping).

Mexicanpete said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1279330889554628608

If Johnson dodges this bullet with "pub chaos" etched into it tonight, he will be very lucky indeed.

Casino_Royale said:

Alistair said:

Casino_Royale said:

Trump's wading into the culture wars - defending statues and monuments:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53284607


Personally, I think there's some mileage in this for him. The reaction in the USA has been far worse than here.

This is pure Stephen Miller, and it will go down well with his core but it will not get him the suburban college educated whites that are slipping away from him.

It will go down well with more than his core.

If you don't think moderate rational independents also don't worry about the lunacy of far-left mobs, then you're not thinking hard enough.

MaxPB said:

ydoethur said:

MaxPB said:

rottenborough said:

ydoethur said:

kinabalu said:

Casino_Royale said:

IshmaelZ said:

I give it a couple of months, and I think Jenrick and corruption will be major factors.

Corruption, self-interest, incompetence, bad economy, "time for a change".. decent Labour leader etc.

Remind you of something?

It could be a solid Labour win in 2024 (not a landslide, because.. culture wars) but very solid - say, 350 seats or so.

Yep. The ruling out of a Labour majority I often come across is imo stale thinking.

To get a majority of one Starmer needs to make a net gain of 124 seats.

To put that in context, only one party has gained that many seats at a single election since the Second World War - Tony Blair in 1997, who gained 145.

It has only happened twice more in the age of universal suffrage - in 1931, when the Conservatives gained 210 seats, and 1945 (during the war but very near the end of it) when Labour gained 239 seats.

That is not to say it is impossible. This government is already a shambles and the shit has yet to really hit the fan. Starmer, meanwhile, is exuding calm competence, moderation and dignity.

It is however going to be bloody difficult and Starmer would be wise not to raise any expectations he will struggle to meet.

Totally agree. But the level of economic shit about to hit could be sufficient to produce a massive swing. We will see.

Johnson's 'administration' will be deeply, deeply unpopular by next summer imho.

But there's still 3 more years to undo that, I think Starmer's approach of negative comments and just generally posing problems rather than solutions is also not going down as well as people believe. He compares favourably to Boris, yes, but that's a low bar that has itself been taken down a few levels by the poor virus response. If anything Starmer should be much further ahead.

If he has offered to help and been rebuffed, I have to say I don’t see why he’s honour bound to offer solutions. John Smith has no solutions to Black Wednesday or the Maastricht crisis, but that didn’t stop him playing them for all they were worth politically. For the matter of that, George Osborne looked totally bewildered during the banking crisis, offering ‘Sector bail ins’ as a solution when he clearly didn’t understand the concept.

The real problem is of course that we have unfortunately come to a time when there are no good solutions - only bad ones and worse ones.

Maybe solutions is the wrong word, alternative is probably better. What would Labour do in these situations, as a voter I still don't know and I pay more attention than most. He seems content to say what Labour would have done but that's not the same thing, it's the main reason Labour are still behind in the polls.

Casino_Royale said:

rottenborough said:

Alistair said:

Casino_Royale said:

Trump's wading into the culture wars - defending statues and monuments:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53284607


Personally, I think there's some mileage in this for him. The reaction in the USA has been far worse than here.

This is pure Stephen Miller, and it will go down well with his core but it will not get him the suburban college educated whites that are slipping away from him.

They are gone. It's the white male non-college he needs to hold onto in massive numbers (and these are slipping).

I think there's so much confirmation bias on Trump on this site.

Doesn't help that one or two posters have taken it upon themselves to attack anyone who suggests otherwise (you know who you are) too.

This is a betting site.

Gallowgate said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

malcolmg said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Charles said:

Scott_xP said:

Charles said:

The media keeps saying he’s the de facto PM. But he’s not. He’s an influential adviser but not the PM.

What distinguishes the PM from any other minister?

He sets the agenda. That's Cummings, no BoZo.

He can hire and fire ministers. That's Cummings, no BoZo.

That's why people call him the de facto PM. He exercises the functions of the role.

That’s what the media says

No one knows what happens behind closed doors

And there is an obsession with Cummings due to brexit, but if the reports are to be believed he forced lockdown before the scientists moved on it, and may even have saved thousands of lives

The public enquiry will be fascinating and Cummings role in covid 19

G you have lost the plot supporting these shysters. Cummings supported nothing but himself and more likely has caused thousands of deaths. At best he is an arrogant little sh*t with regards only for himself.

You are putting your own unique anti everyone but SNP narrative into this Malc and ignoring that there is a growing belief Cummings intervened bringing lockdown forward and ironically with the approval of Nicola no less

I simply do not know enough about Cummings and his beliefs but I absolutely do believe he should have resigned over his trip to Durham

With all due respect Big G there’s no evidence at all, in either direction, on what Cummings may or may not have pushed for. There’s no point even discussing it until an enquiry because at the moment it’s all mere rumour and conjecture.

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1279330889554628608

Cyclefree said:

On the Wirecard fraud and juries - https://barry-walsh.co.uk/on-juries-and-experts/

Charles said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1279330889554628608

Ok. Some junior guy in the government made a mistake and posted a misleading/incorrect tweet.

Within 10 minutes it was deleted.

Utterly unimportant in the scheme of things.

Who benefits from Rentoul giving it much wider circulation? A quick smirk for opponents of the government. And the risk that someone sees the wrong advise and suffers as a result.

That’s a really poor choice by Rentoul

Mexicanpete said:

ydoethur said:

Mexicanpete said:

ydoethur said:

Mexicanpete said:

Foxy said:

Mexicanpete said:

kle4 said:

StuartDickson said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I would not be surprised to see crossover sooner rather than later.

It is clear most people are still very worried by covid and nearly half the country have been financially protected by employment in the public sector or furloughed

Boris has paid a big price for Cummings and his brand has taken a hit

Whether this matters is not clear and the focus over the next few months will be on the economy, help for those suffering, and if covid can be contained

Also Boris will be in place at the end of the year and responsible for the deal or no deal outcome of brexit

The next election is 4 years away and many variable factors will determine just how that election pans out but I am far less worried now Corbyn is history

How might a Biden presidency affect Johnson administration (where have I heard THAT before?) My sense is that election of Bill Clinton was not fatal to John Major, but it didn't do him any favors AND it gave Tony Blair an obvious role model.

Keir Stumer sorta comes across like a Joe Biden with youthful vigor - somewhat like Joe himself back when he was borking Bork. Granted without Biden's working-class cred, but also without a propensity for foot-in-mouth disease.

“...without Biden's working-class cred...”

Huh?

A quick glance at Keith Starmer’s early life clearly indicates that he is most certainly “working class” (which was still a thing in England in the 1960s).

He was obviously very bright, and worked his way towards a good career.

Having cred with the working class has little to do with whether said person is or was working class themselves. People would laugh if Boris claimed to speak for the working class but the working class voters wouldnt. And Corbyn was a middle class guy whod spent his career at impotent protests but people thought he was the greatest labour leader ever.

So I think Starmers upbringing is entirely irrelevant to his appeal and cred. He'll do better with the working class because of time, that he's normal and competent.

To shoot your final point down in flames, can I introduce Boris Johnson? Neither normal, nor competent but loved by the working classes.

Is he "loved by the working classes"?

I am not convinced. More seen as a way to further Brexity wet dreams by a certain subsection. In the end they will tar and feather him for betrayal.

I mix with a variet of people, those who in the past I would have had as Wilsonian Labourites, won't have a bad word said for Johnson.

Conversely those I would have had down as Heathite Tories can't bear Johnson.

I won’t have a bad word said against Johnson.

Anything less than a whole paragraph does him less than justice.

The 'B' streamers from Ledbury Grammar School love the guy!

I’m not in touch with many people from Newent now. Insofar as I am, they seem to be more liberal than the rest of the Forest is these days.

I suspect my earlier statement would have been forever true.

When I arrived from the industrial West Midlands, where the children of workers from the car industry were politically left wing the children of farm labourers on poverty wages were dyed in the wool Tories. I put it down to the feudal system.

MaxPB said:

Casino_Royale said:

rottenborough said:

Alistair said:

Casino_Royale said:

Trump's wading into the culture wars - defending statues and monuments:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53284607


Personally, I think there's some mileage in this for him. The reaction in the USA has been far worse than here.

This is pure Stephen Miller, and it will go down well with his core but it will not get him the suburban college educated whites that are slipping away from him.

They are gone. It's the white male non-college he needs to hold onto in massive numbers (and these are slipping).

I think there's so much confirmation bias on Trump on this site.

Doesn't help that one or two posters have taken it upon themselves to attack anyone who suggests otherwise (you know who you are) too.

This is a betting site.

Agreed, apparently saying that Trump might not lose is the same as saying you support him to some posters.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Agree with David's post, which I think is fantastic and very astute.

It's possible Labour forms the next Government - but not as a majority. If the Tories lose a total of around 65 seats or more, they will find it extremely difficult to form a Government, even if they have the most seats.

According to, http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour, a 5.63% swing would be needed for that to happen.

With the Tories on 300 seats, Labour on 267, it would be a mess of a Parliament.

SNP would likely take most Scottish seats, so that puts Labour/SNP up to probably 317, Lib Dems take a few and there's a technical majority of anti-Tory votes. In this scenario, I don't feel there would be a formal arrangement, I suspect Labour would dare the other parties to vote their policies down.

Of course the best thing for Labour is to get the Lib Dems on more seats. The less reliant on SNP seats, the better - and the easier it is for the Tory majority to tumble with less Labour gains.

Ergo, they need some kind of pact, even if unofficial.

HYUFD said:

After 10 years in opposition it would be normal for Labour to start to see poll leads by now. Labour certainly had a few in 1989 for example as did the Tories in 2007.

However while the polls are much closer now under Starmer than they were under Corbyn last year as Remainers who disliked Corbyn and voted LD in 2019 have gone back to Labour, the Tory vote remains virtually unchanged from the last general election.

Unless Tory voters start to move to Labour or the LDs then the Tories will remain ahead. Perhaps the likeliest way that would occur is if we go to WTO terms Brexit and some Tory Remainers switch to the opposition parties (though of course if Boris extended the transition period then some Tory Leavers could move back to the Brexit Party which might also put Labour ahead with no increase in its voteshare)

StuartDickson said:

Foxy said:

StuartDickson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I would not be surprised to see crossover sooner rather than later.

It is clear most people are still very worried by covid and nearly half the country have been financially protected by employment in the public sector or furloughed

Boris has paid a big price for Cummings and his brand has taken a hit

Whether this matters is not clear and the focus over the next few months will be on the economy, help for those suffering, and if covid can be contained

Also Boris will be in place at the end of the year and responsible for the deal or no deal outcome of brexit

The next election is 4 years away and many variable factors will determine just how that election pans out but I am far less worried now Corbyn is history

How might a Biden presidency affect Johnson administration (where have I heard THAT before?) My sense is that election of Bill Clinton was not fatal to John Major, but it didn't do him any favors AND it gave Tony Blair an obvious role model.

Keir Stumer sorta comes across like a Joe Biden with youthful vigor - somewhat like Joe himself back when he was borking Bork. Granted without Biden's working-class cred, but also without a propensity for foot-in-mouth disease.

It will be too late to effect brexit but I would hope it would help to restore relationships, not just here in the UK but worldwide after the disaster that is Trump

Hopefully the US will become a less confrontational country and to be honest any future trade deal would no doubt be based on firmer grounds than anything with Trump

As for Starmer he is far more acceptable than Corbyn, but I very much doubt he will be up against Boris. I hope 2021 will see Boris step away as he will have concluded Brexit and I doubt he is in it for the longhaul anyway

His self-delusion about being the new Churchill would tend to indicate otherwise.

Yes, I wouldnt expect the polls to change much before the end of the year.

For most people it doesn't really feel that Brexit is done. There has been no discernable change yet, so Johnson keeps that "Get Brexit Done" vote. That all changes in January. Where those votes go then will be interesting, but I expect them to fade.The economic hit and misery will be in full force by then too. Sub 30% Tory vote very possible by then.

In Scotland I can see the Tories drifting back to core vote levels: 15 to 18 percent.

May 2021 could be a bloodbath for the hapless Jack and Carlaw. More importantly for the long term I can see the SCons taking a total pounding at the May Scottish local elections, where they have strong representation. That’ll totally cripple their key activists and local media operations.

eek said:

Cyclefree said:

On the Wirecard fraud and juries - https://barry-walsh.co.uk/on-juries-and-experts/

The problem with juries and fraud trials is that the cases are exceedingly long.

We've seen in the past that randomly selecting 12 people for a 3 year trial destroyed their lives so that can't be done again. So how else do you keep juries in complex cases...