I would not be surprised to see crossover sooner rather than later.
It is clear most people are still very worried by covid and nearly half the country have been financially protected by employment in the public sector or furloughed
Boris has paid a big price for Cummings and his brand has taken a hit
Whether this matters is not clear and the focus over the next few months will be on the economy, help for those suffering, and if covid can be contained
Also Boris will be in place at the end of the year and responsible for the deal or no deal outcome of brexit
The next election is 4 years away and many variable factors will determine just how that election pans out but I am far less worried now Corbyn is history
How might a Biden presidency affect Johnson administration (where have I heard THAT before?) My sense is that election of Bill Clinton was not fatal to John Major, but it didn't do him any favors AND it gave Tony Blair an obvious role model.
Keir Stumer sorta comes across like a Joe Biden with youthful vigor - somewhat like Joe himself back when he was borking Bork. Granted without Biden's working-class cred, but also without a propensity for foot-in-mouth disease.
It will be too late to effect brexit but I would hope it would help to restore relationships, not just here in the UK but worldwide after the disaster that is Trump
Hopefully the US will become a less confrontational country and to be honest any future trade deal would no doubt be based on firmer grounds than anything with Trump
As for Starmer he is far more acceptable than Corbyn, but I very much doubt he will be up against Boris. I hope 2021 will see Boris step away as he will have concluded Brexit and I doubt he is in it for the longhaul anyway
His self-delusion about being the new Churchill would tend to indicate otherwise.
Yes, I wouldnt expect the polls to change much before the end of the year.
For most people it doesn't really feel that Brexit is done. There has been no discernable change yet, so Johnson keeps that "Get Brexit Done" vote. That all changes in January. Where those votes go then will be interesting, but I expect them to fade.The economic hit and misery will be in full force by then too. Sub 30% Tory vote very possible by then.
Pinning a lot of hopes on this 'economic hit and misery' aren't you?
No, I find it profoundly depressing talking to my patients about it all. One this week had a daughter made redundant from a London fashion house, unable to get work anywhere. A furniture shop owner who hasn't sold anything for months, an employee at the Leicester Theatre that went into administration, etc etc. All this before furlough ends too.
And everyone knows that this is an issue across the world due to covid
Rishi Sunak is to address this later this week
The big problem this government seems to have that it believes it can rule by just giving speeches and annoucements rather than actually implementing the things they announce.
The media keeps saying he’s the de facto PM. But he’s not. He’s an influential adviser but not the PM.
What distinguishes the PM from any other minister?
He sets the agenda. That's Cummings, no BoZo.
He can hire and fire ministers. That's Cummings, no BoZo.
That's why people call him the de facto PM. He exercises the functions of the role.
That’s what the media says
No one knows what happens behind closed doors
And there is an obsession with Cummings due to brexit, but if the reports are to be believed he forced lockdown before the scientists moved on it, and may even have saved thousands of lives
The public enquiry will be fascinating and Cummings role in covid 19
G you have lost the plot supporting these shysters. Cummings supported nothing but himself and more likely has caused thousands of deaths. At best he is an arrogant little sh*t with regards only for himself.
You are putting your own unique anti everyone but SNP narrative into this Malc and ignoring that there is a growing belief Cummings intervened bringing lockdown forward and ironically with the approval of Nicola no less
I simply do not know enough about Cummings and his beliefs but I absolutely do believe he should have resigned over his trip to Durham
With all due respect Big G there’s no evidence at all, in either direction, on what Cummings may or may not have pushed for. There’s no point even discussing it until an enquiry because at the moment it’s all mere rumour and conjecture.
The relegation battle came to the forefront on Thursday evening, when EFL chairman Rick Parry was covertly recorded telling a football fan about “all sorts of rumours” surrounding Wigan’s situation. Parry said: “There are rumours that there is a bet in the Philippines on them being relegated because the previous owner (Dr Stanley Choi) has got gambling interests in the Philippines.”
At a press conference on Thursday, administrator Krasner was asked by a Daily Telegraph journalist if he was aware of the origins of the change of ownership and presumably referencing rumours also passed to The Athletic, asked whether the club had been lost via gambling.
Krasner replied: “I have no paperwork, nobody has mentioned gambling before this conversation. Any evidence would be obliged.”
Gunnercooke, the legal representatives of IEC in the UK, declined to comment on either point and indeed all questions posed by The Athletic.
I would not be surprised to see crossover sooner rather than later.
It is clear most people are still very worried by covid and nearly half the country have been financially protected by employment in the public sector or furloughed
Boris has paid a big price for Cummings and his brand has taken a hit
Whether this matters is not clear and the focus over the next few months will be on the economy, help for those suffering, and if covid can be contained
Also Boris will be in place at the end of the year and responsible for the deal or no deal outcome of brexit
The next election is 4 years away and many variable factors will determine just how that election pans out but I am far less worried now Corbyn is history
How might a Biden presidency affect Johnson administration (where have I heard THAT before?) My sense is that election of Bill Clinton was not fatal to John Major, but it didn't do him any favors AND it gave Tony Blair an obvious role model.
Keir Stumer sorta comes across like a Joe Biden with youthful vigor - somewhat like Joe himself back when he was borking Bork. Granted without Biden's working-class cred, but also without a propensity for foot-in-mouth disease.
“...without Biden's working-class cred...”
Huh?
A quick glance at Keith Starmer’s early life clearly indicates that he is most certainly “working class” (which was still a thing in England in the 1960s).
He was obviously very bright, and worked his way towards a good career.
Having cred with the working class has little to do with whether said person is or was working class themselves. People would laugh if Boris claimed to speak for the working class but the working class voters wouldnt. And Corbyn was a middle class guy whod spent his career at impotent protests but people thought he was the greatest labour leader ever.
So I think Starmers upbringing is entirely irrelevant to his appeal and cred. He'll do better with the working class because of time, that he's normal and competent.
To shoot your final point down in flames, can I introduce Boris Johnson? Neither normal, nor competent but loved by the working classes.
I would not be surprised to see crossover sooner rather than later.
It is clear most people are still very worried by covid and nearly half the country have been financially protected by employment in the public sector or furloughed
Boris has paid a big price for Cummings and his brand has taken a hit
Whether this matters is not clear and the focus over the next few months will be on the economy, help for those suffering, and if covid can be contained
Also Boris will be in place at the end of the year and responsible for the deal or no deal outcome of brexit
The next election is 4 years away and many variable factors will determine just how that election pans out but I am far less worried now Corbyn is history
How might a Biden presidency affect Johnson administration (where have I heard THAT before?) My sense is that election of Bill Clinton was not fatal to John Major, but it didn't do him any favors AND it gave Tony Blair an obvious role model.
Keir Stumer sorta comes across like a Joe Biden with youthful vigor - somewhat like Joe himself back when he was borking Bork. Granted without Biden's working-class cred, but also without a propensity for foot-in-mouth disease.
It will be too late to effect brexit but I would hope it would help to restore relationships, not just here in the UK but worldwide after the disaster that is Trump
Hopefully the US will become a less confrontational country and to be honest any future trade deal would no doubt be based on firmer grounds than anything with Trump
As for Starmer he is far more acceptable than Corbyn, but I very much doubt he will be up against Boris. I hope 2021 will see Boris step away as he will have concluded Brexit and I doubt he is in it for the longhaul anyway
His self-delusion about being the new Churchill would tend to indicate otherwise.
Yes, I wouldnt expect the polls to change much before the end of the year.
For most people it doesn't really feel that Brexit is done. There has been no discernable change yet, so Johnson keeps that "Get Brexit Done" vote. That all changes in January. Where those votes go then will be interesting, but I expect them to fade.The economic hit and misery will be in full force by then too. Sub 30% Tory vote very possible by then.
Pinning a lot of hopes on this 'economic hit and misery' aren't you?
What a ridiculous assertion.
If you do not see that train coming down the track you must have your eyes closed.
The key is how the government handles the impact. I do not see how the best government in the world successfully mitigates the effect of the post-Covid shock. And this government is certainly not world beating.
Yes, I dont think even in a best case scenario they can avoid blowback as a result of events, whether not that's fair.
I'm surprised we haven't seen HYUFD again trying to claim, that the Conservative losses are nothing to do with Labour and is due to gains by the LDs.
That's not what I see from this diagram.
I’m usually the first to call HYUFD out on his bullsh*t however to be fair to him, this diagram does not go as far back as the GE and his point about Tory losses is always in reference to the GE itself.
The media keeps saying he’s the de facto PM. But he’s not. He’s an influential adviser but not the PM.
What distinguishes the PM from any other minister?
He sets the agenda. That's Cummings, no BoZo.
He can hire and fire ministers. That's Cummings, no BoZo.
That's why people call him the de facto PM. He exercises the functions of the role.
That’s what the media says
No one knows what happens behind closed doors
And there is an obsession with Cummings due to brexit, but if the reports are to be believed he forced lockdown before the scientists moved on it, and may even have saved thousands of lives
The public enquiry will be fascinating and Cummings role in covid 19
G you have lost the plot supporting these shysters. Cummings supported nothing but himself and more likely has caused thousands of deaths. At best he is an arrogant little sh*t with regards only for himself.
You are putting your own unique anti everyone but SNP narrative into this Malc and ignoring that there is a growing belief Cummings intervened bringing lockdown forward and ironically with the approval of Nicola no less
I simply do not know enough about Cummings and his beliefs but I absolutely do believe he should have resigned over his trip to Durham
G, it has no connection with SNP or my interest in independence. It is plain to see that Cummings should have no place running the country. England voted in a known lying cheating scoundrel and he leaves the work to this odious little creep, anyone with an ounce of principles or morals would have resigned and similarly a real PM would have sacked him.
The media keeps saying he’s the de facto PM. But he’s not. He’s an influential adviser but not the PM.
What distinguishes the PM from any other minister?
He sets the agenda. That's Cummings, no BoZo.
He can hire and fire ministers. That's Cummings, no BoZo.
That's why people call him the de facto PM. He exercises the functions of the role.
I agree, but that does not make him PM. Cummings has not been elected as an MP, will probably not be standing in the next general election, and cannot be removed by the Conservative MPs.
In short he is not answerable like the PM (in theory at least) is, and carries none of the responsibilities of the post.
I would not be surprised to see crossover sooner rather than later.
It is clear most people are still very worried by covid and nearly half the country have been financially protected by employment in the public sector or furloughed
Boris has paid a big price for Cummings and his brand has taken a hit
Whether this matters is not clear and the focus over the next few months will be on the economy, help for those suffering, and if covid can be contained
Also Boris will be in place at the end of the year and responsible for the deal or no deal outcome of brexit
The next election is 4 years away and many variable factors will determine just how that election pans out but I am far less worried now Corbyn is history
How might a Biden presidency affect Johnson administration (where have I heard THAT before?) My sense is that election of Bill Clinton was not fatal to John Major, but it didn't do him any favors AND it gave Tony Blair an obvious role model.
Keir Stumer sorta comes across like a Joe Biden with youthful vigor - somewhat like Joe himself back when he was borking Bork. Granted without Biden's working-class cred, but also without a propensity for foot-in-mouth disease.
“...without Biden's working-class cred...”
Huh?
A quick glance at Keith Starmer’s early life clearly indicates that he is most certainly “working class” (which was still a thing in England in the 1960s).
He was obviously very bright, and worked his way towards a good career.
One of the lies that the English tell themselves is that they believe in aspiration. The national motto should be Know Your Place.
The same social prejudice exists in lots of countries.
In Scotland we say “Ah kent yer faither.”
In Australia they have tall poppy syndrome.
In Sweden we have jantelagen.
It wouldn’t surprise me if every nation and language on the planet had this concept.
Seems right. It feels like a weird kind of exceptionalism to believe ones nation is exceptional, in positive and negative ways. It will be the case to a degree, we are all unique snowflakes and what have you, but not as much as we think especially with broad issues of society.
The media keeps saying he’s the de facto PM. But he’s not. He’s an influential adviser but not the PM.
What distinguishes the PM from any other minister?
He sets the agenda. That's Cummings, no BoZo.
He can hire and fire ministers. That's Cummings, no BoZo.
That's why people call him the de facto PM. He exercises the functions of the role.
That’s what the media says
No one knows what happens behind closed doors
And there is an obsession with Cummings due to brexit, but if the reports are to be believed he forced lockdown before the scientists moved on it, and may even have saved thousands of lives
The public enquiry will be fascinating and Cummings role in covid 19
G you have lost the plot supporting these shysters. Cummings supported nothing but himself and more likely has caused thousands of deaths. At best he is an arrogant little sh*t with regards only for himself.
You are putting your own unique anti everyone but SNP narrative into this Malc and ignoring that there is a growing belief Cummings intervened bringing lockdown forward and ironically with the approval of Nicola no less
I simply do not know enough about Cummings and his beliefs but I absolutely do believe he should have resigned over his trip to Durham
G, it has no connection with SNP or my interest in independence. It is plain to see that Cummings should have no place running the country. England voted in a known lying cheating scoundrel and he leaves the work to this odious little creep, anyone with an ounce of principles or morals would have resigned and similarly a real PM would have sacked him.
Cummings does have the ability to annoy a lot of people and of course he should have gone over Durham
However, what if history shows he intervened to bring lockdown forward and in the process saved thousands of lives and many in Scotland
I've said before that the Cummings episode ran very deep. People still make jokes about it, and now there are jokes about PM Johnson. And they're not sympathetic jokes, either.
The whole Cummings situation - not just the Durham incident - is a structural disadvantage for the government. We keep hearing how he is the de facto PM. But nobody voted for him. In our political system, if you want that kind of political power you should stand for office. People don't like it.
Or be so brilliant that people will stretch a point.
Cummings thinks he meets this criteria, of course.
On topic, I now expect Labour to form the next government.
I feel it in my bones: Boris is incompetent and will take the Tory brand down with him, whilst Starmer knows what he's doing.
This article shows poll-leads mean jack. They can be massive, and then evaporate in weeks - and the reverse can happen too.
But, I expect clear Labour leads in 2021 once Brexit has taken its final form, the economy continues to struggle to recover and the Government struggles to deliver its "levelling up" projects.
I would not be surprised to see crossover sooner rather than later.
It is clear most people are still very worried by covid and nearly half the country have been financially protected by employment in the public sector or furloughed
Boris has paid a big price for Cummings and his brand has taken a hit
Whether this matters is not clear and the focus over the next few months will be on the economy, help for those suffering, and if covid can be contained
Also Boris will be in place at the end of the year and responsible for the deal or no deal outcome of brexit
The next election is 4 years away and many variable factors will determine just how that election pans out but I am far less worried now Corbyn is history
How might a Biden presidency affect Johnson administration (where have I heard THAT before?) My sense is that election of Bill Clinton was not fatal to John Major, but it didn't do him any favors AND it gave Tony Blair an obvious role model.
Keir Stumer sorta comes across like a Joe Biden with youthful vigor - somewhat like Joe himself back when he was borking Bork. Granted without Biden's working-class cred, but also without a propensity for foot-in-mouth disease.
“...without Biden's working-class cred...”
Huh?
A quick glance at Keith Starmer’s early life clearly indicates that he is most certainly “working class” (which was still a thing in England in the 1960s).
He was obviously very bright, and worked his way towards a good career.
Having cred with the working class has little to do with whether said person is or was working class themselves. People would laugh if Boris claimed to speak for the working class but the working class voters wouldnt. And Corbyn was a middle class guy whod spent his career at impotent protests but people thought he was the greatest labour leader ever.
So I think Starmers upbringing is entirely irrelevant to his appeal and cred. He'll do better with the working class because of time, that he's normal and competent.
To shoot your final point down in flames, can I introduce Boris Johnson? Neither normal, nor competent but loved by the working classes.
Thst doesn't shoot my point down, since I wasn't saying you need that to be loved by the working classes, I meant that's why he will do better than Corbyn with the working classes. The reference to time was to suggest also he will do better simply because itll be after yet more years of government, but not necessarily that he'll win the working classes, just do better as wont repel them.
I would not be surprised to see crossover sooner rather than later.
It is clear most people are still very worried by covid and nearly half the country have been financially protected by employment in the public sector or furloughed
Boris has paid a big price for Cummings and his brand has taken a hit
Whether this matters is not clear and the focus over the next few months will be on the economy, help for those suffering, and if covid can be contained
Also Boris will be in place at the end of the year and responsible for the deal or no deal outcome of brexit
The next election is 4 years away and many variable factors will determine just how that election pans out but I am far less worried now Corbyn is history
How might a Biden presidency affect Johnson administration (where have I heard THAT before?) My sense is that election of Bill Clinton was not fatal to John Major, but it didn't do him any favors AND it gave Tony Blair an obvious role model.
Keir Stumer sorta comes across like a Joe Biden with youthful vigor - somewhat like Joe himself back when he was borking Bork. Granted without Biden's working-class cred, but also without a propensity for foot-in-mouth disease.
“...without Biden's working-class cred...”
Huh?
A quick glance at Keith Starmer’s early life clearly indicates that he is most certainly “working class” (which was still a thing in England in the 1960s).
He was obviously very bright, and worked his way towards a good career.
One of the lies that the English tell themselves is that they believe in aspiration. The national motto should be Know Your Place.
The same social prejudice exists in lots of countries.
In Scotland we say “Ah kent yer faither.”
In Australia they have tall poppy syndrome.
In Sweden we have jantelagen.
It wouldn’t surprise me if every nation and language on the planet had this concept.
Seems right. It feels like a weird kind of exceptionalism to believe ones nation is exceptional, in positive and negative ways. It will be the case to a degree, we are all unique snowflakes and what have you, but not as much as we think especially with broad issues of society.
In my experience the English and the Australian are particularly prone to thinking that their country is "exceptionally exceptional"
I would not be surprised to see crossover sooner rather than later.
It is clear most people are still very worried by covid and nearly half the country have been financially protected by employment in the public sector or furloughed
Boris has paid a big price for Cummings and his brand has taken a hit
Whether this matters is not clear and the focus over the next few months will be on the economy, help for those suffering, and if covid can be contained
Also Boris will be in place at the end of the year and responsible for the deal or no deal outcome of brexit
The next election is 4 years away and many variable factors will determine just how that election pans out but I am far less worried now Corbyn is history
How might a Biden presidency affect Johnson administration (where have I heard THAT before?) My sense is that election of Bill Clinton was not fatal to John Major, but it didn't do him any favors AND it gave Tony Blair an obvious role model.
Keir Stumer sorta comes across like a Joe Biden with youthful vigor - somewhat like Joe himself back when he was borking Bork. Granted without Biden's working-class cred, but also without a propensity for foot-in-mouth disease.
“...without Biden's working-class cred...”
Huh?
A quick glance at Keith Starmer’s early life clearly indicates that he is most certainly “working class” (which was still a thing in England in the 1960s).
He was obviously very bright, and worked his way towards a good career.
Having cred with the working class has little to do with whether said person is or was working class themselves. People would laugh if Boris claimed to speak for the working class but the working class voters wouldnt. And Corbyn was a middle class guy whod spent his career at impotent protests but people thought he was the greatest labour leader ever.
So I think Starmers upbringing is entirely irrelevant to his appeal and cred. He'll do better with the working class because of time, that he's normal and competent.
To shoot your final point down in flames, can I introduce Boris Johnson? Neither normal, nor competent but loved by the working classes.
Is he "loved by the working classes"?
I am not convinced. More seen as a way to further Brexity wet dreams by a certain subsection. In the end they will tar and feather him for betrayal.
I've said before that the Cummings episode ran very deep. People still make jokes about it, and now there are jokes about PM Johnson. And they're not sympathetic jokes, either.
The whole Cummings situation - not just the Durham incident - is a structural disadvantage for the government. We keep hearing how he is the de facto PM. But nobody voted for him. In our political system, if you want that kind of political power you should stand for office. People don't like it.
Or be so brilliant that people will stretch a point.
Cummings thinks he meets this criteria, of course.
I would not be surprised to see crossover sooner rather than later.
It is clear most people are still very worried by covid and nearly half the country have been financially protected by employment in the public sector or furloughed
Boris has paid a big price for Cummings and his brand has taken a hit
Whether this matters is not clear and the focus over the next few months will be on the economy, help for those suffering, and if covid can be contained
Also Boris will be in place at the end of the year and responsible for the deal or no deal outcome of brexit
The next election is 4 years away and many variable factors will determine just how that election pans out but I am far less worried now Corbyn is history
How might a Biden presidency affect Johnson administration (where have I heard THAT before?) My sense is that election of Bill Clinton was not fatal to John Major, but it didn't do him any favors AND it gave Tony Blair an obvious role model.
Keir Stumer sorta comes across like a Joe Biden with youthful vigor - somewhat like Joe himself back when he was borking Bork. Granted without Biden's working-class cred, but also without a propensity for foot-in-mouth disease.
“...without Biden's working-class cred...”
Huh?
A quick glance at Keith Starmer’s early life clearly indicates that he is most certainly “working class” (which was still a thing in England in the 1960s).
He was obviously very bright, and worked his way towards a good career.
Having cred with the working class has little to do with whether said person is or was working class themselves. People would laugh if Boris claimed to speak for the working class but the working class voters wouldnt. And Corbyn was a middle class guy whod spent his career at impotent protests but people thought he was the greatest labour leader ever.
So I think Starmers upbringing is entirely irrelevant to his appeal and cred. He'll do better with the working class because of time, that he's normal and competent.
To shoot your final point down in flames, can I introduce Boris Johnson? Neither normal, nor competent but loved by the working classes.
Is he "loved by the working classes"?
I am not convinced. More seen as a way to further Brexity wet dreams by a certain subsection. In the end they will tar and feather him for betrayal.
Yes, I think he is. Such evidence as we have points that way, starting with the election result.
How long it will survive the reality of his ‘leadership’ is an altogether different question.
I've said before that the Cummings episode ran very deep. People still make jokes about it, and now there are jokes about PM Johnson. And they're not sympathetic jokes, either.
The whole Cummings situation - not just the Durham incident - is a structural disadvantage for the government. We keep hearing how he is the de facto PM. But nobody voted for him. In our political system, if you want that kind of political power you should stand for office. People don't like it.
Or be so brilliant that people will stretch a point.
Cummings thinks he meets this criteria, of course.
It would matter less if he was correct.
What about Alastair Campbell. He ruled by fear.
You're right, Campbell could be really scary, and he had that in common with Cummings. But otherwise their roles are completely different.
Campbell was about communication, spin, the message, and party discipline. He had no real input on policy, other than to give advice about whether things would land well with the public. Blair, Brown and others in a strong cabinet determined policy.
By contrast, it looks as if Cummings is the creative force behind much of the policy thinking behind this government, and most of the Cabinet are just ciphers for his creativity. He is not just a SPAD; he is the brains behind much of the government's agenda.
So a hugely different role from Campbell, and a much more risky one for an unelected adviser.
Sorry, on reflection I should be more succinct.
Campbell was Blair's servant. Cummings is Johnson's master.
Servant - the Johnson/Cummings relationship does make me think of that exact film. Weak, louche aristo (Boris Fox) gaslighted (oh yes) and dominated by his smart, driven butler (Dom Bogarde). Ended badly for Fox, IIRC.
On topic, I now expect Labour to form the next government.
I feel it in my bones: Boris is incompetent and will take the Tory brand down with him, whilst Starmer knows what he's doing.
This article shows poll-leads mean jack. They can be massive, and then evaporate in weeks - and the reverse can happen too.
But, I expect clear Labour leads in 2021 once Brexit has taken its final form, the economy continues to struggle to recover and the Government struggles to deliver its "levelling up" projects.
I remember there was a similar "in the bones" feeling accross the country in 1990/1991.
I've said before that the Cummings episode ran very deep. People still make jokes about it, and now there are jokes about PM Johnson. And they're not sympathetic jokes, either.
The whole Cummings situation - not just the Durham incident - is a structural disadvantage for the government. We keep hearing how he is the de facto PM. But nobody voted for him. In our political system, if you want that kind of political power you should stand for office. People don't like it.
Or be so brilliant that people will stretch a point.
Cummings thinks he meets this criteria, of course.
It would matter less if he was correct.
What about Alastair Campbell. He ruled by fear.
You're right, Campbell could be really scary, and he had that in common with Cummings. But otherwise their roles are completely different.
Campbell was about communication, spin, the message, and party discipline. He had no real input on policy, other than to give advice about whether things would land well with the public. Blair, Brown and others in a strong cabinet determined policy.
By contrast, it looks as if Cummings is the creative force behind much of the policy thinking behind this government, and most of the Cabinet are just ciphers for his creativity. He is not just a SPAD; he is the brains behind much of the government's agenda.
So a hugely different role from Campbell, and a much more risky one for an unelected adviser.
Sorry, on reflection I should be more succinct.
Campbell was Blair's servant. Cummings is Johnson's master.
Servant - the Johnson/Cummings relationship does make me think of that exact film. Weak, louche aristo (Boris Fox) gaslighted (oh yes) and dominated by his smart, driven butler (Dom Bogarde). Ended badly for Fox, IIRC.
Although in the alternative versions, Cummings has insufficient talent to be compared to Jeeves or Crichton.
On topic, I now expect Labour to form the next government.
I feel it in my bones: Boris is incompetent and will take the Tory brand down with him, whilst Starmer knows what he's doing.
This article shows poll-leads mean jack. They can be massive, and then evaporate in weeks - and the reverse can happen too.
But, I expect clear Labour leads in 2021 once Brexit has taken its final form, the economy continues to struggle to recover and the Government struggles to deliver its "levelling up" projects.
I remember there was a similar "in the bones" feeling accross the country in 1990/1991.
I expect the key to 2024 will be whether the UK has survived brexit and is seen to, or a Starmer led government would promise to take the UK back into the single market which could be a winner if brexit has failed
I would not be surprised to see crossover sooner rather than later.
It is clear most people are still very worried by covid and nearly half the country have been financially protected by employment in the public sector or furloughed
Boris has paid a big price for Cummings and his brand has taken a hit
Whether this matters is not clear and the focus over the next few months will be on the economy, help for those suffering, and if covid can be contained
Also Boris will be in place at the end of the year and responsible for the deal or no deal outcome of brexit
The next election is 4 years away and many variable factors will determine just how that election pans out but I am far less worried now Corbyn is history
How might a Biden presidency affect Johnson administration (where have I heard THAT before?) My sense is that election of Bill Clinton was not fatal to John Major, but it didn't do him any favors AND it gave Tony Blair an obvious role model.
Keir Stumer sorta comes across like a Joe Biden with youthful vigor - somewhat like Joe himself back when he was borking Bork. Granted without Biden's working-class cred, but also without a propensity for foot-in-mouth disease.
It will be too late to effect brexit but I would hope it would help to restore relationships, not just here in the UK but worldwide after the disaster that is Trump
Hopefully the US will become a less confrontational country and to be honest any future trade deal would no doubt be based on firmer grounds than anything with Trump
As for Starmer he is far more acceptable than Corbyn, but I very much doubt he will be up against Boris. I hope 2021 will see Boris step away as he will have concluded Brexit and I doubt he is in it for the longhaul anyway
His self-delusion about being the new Churchill would tend to indicate otherwise.
Yes, I wouldnt expect the polls to change much before the end of the year.
For most people it doesn't really feel that Brexit is done. There has been no discernable change yet, so Johnson keeps that "Get Brexit Done" vote. That all changes in January. Where those votes go then will be interesting, but I expect them to fade.The economic hit and misery will be in full force by then too. Sub 30% Tory vote very possible by then.
Pinning a lot of hopes on this 'economic hit and misery' aren't you?
No, I find it profoundly depressing talking to my patients about it all. One this week had a daughter made redundant from a London fashion house, unable to get work anywhere. A furniture shop owner who hasn't sold anything for months, an employee at the Leicester Theatre that went into administration, etc etc. All this before furlough ends too.
If anything I think we grossly underestimate the long-term damage that this crisis is going to inflict. It's not just the tsunami of job losses, which is already underway, but it's the large fraction of those people who are going to be out of work for a very long time and may, even if they are relatively young, never work again. Whatever sort of recovery we eventually have and however strong or weak that turns out to be, I simply don't see where all the jobs are going to come from. Non-grocery retail is collapsing, the supermarkets have all the shelf-stackers they need, I think we can probably assume that we're entering a period of decreased consumerism coupled with increased automation, and there are really only so many of us that can be employed delivering Amazon parcels and takeaway dinners.
I am 44 and currently working for a pretty decent wage but in quite a niche occupation (basically I'm very useful where I am but feel my transferable skills are rather limited.) As long as I can stay put where I am I'll be fine, but if I'm made redundant I'm afraid I'll end up slung on the scrapheap for good. I suspect that I'm far from alone.
Government is probably going to have to address a major structural unemployment problem going forward, and if the private sector won't solve it through creating an awful lot of new jobs (and I have my doubts that it can do so on the vast scale required,) then that will mean the state having to pay people to do something through creating make work schemes, or pay them to do nothing through benefits that are sufficient to live on, or tolerate widespread poverty.
On topic, I now expect Labour to form the next government.
I feel it in my bones: Boris is incompetent and will take the Tory brand down with him, whilst Starmer knows what he's doing.
This article shows poll-leads mean jack. They can be massive, and then evaporate in weeks - and the reverse can happen too.
But, I expect clear Labour leads in 2021 once Brexit has taken its final form, the economy continues to struggle to recover and the Government struggles to deliver its "levelling up" projects.
I think that feeling coupled with a very difficult bit of electoral maths for Labour results in a narrow Tory win of around 330-340 seats with the majority of seat losses going to Labour.
I would not be surprised to see crossover sooner rather than later.
It is clear most people are still very worried by covid and nearly half the country have been financially protected by employment in the public sector or furloughed
Boris has paid a big price for Cummings and his brand has taken a hit
Whether this matters is not clear and the focus over the next few months will be on the economy, help for those suffering, and if covid can be contained
Also Boris will be in place at the end of the year and responsible for the deal or no deal outcome of brexit
The next election is 4 years away and many variable factors will determine just how that election pans out but I am far less worried now Corbyn is history
How might a Biden presidency affect Johnson administration (where have I heard THAT before?) My sense is that election of Bill Clinton was not fatal to John Major, but it didn't do him any favors AND it gave Tony Blair an obvious role model.
Keir Stumer sorta comes across like a Joe Biden with youthful vigor - somewhat like Joe himself back when he was borking Bork. Granted without Biden's working-class cred, but also without a propensity for foot-in-mouth disease.
“...without Biden's working-class cred...”
Huh?
A quick glance at Keith Starmer’s early life clearly indicates that he is most certainly “working class” (which was still a thing in England in the 1960s).
He was obviously very bright, and worked his way towards a good career.
Having cred with the working class has little to do with whether said person is or was working class themselves. People would laugh if Boris claimed to speak for the working class but the working class voters wouldnt. And Corbyn was a middle class guy whod spent his career at impotent protests but people thought he was the greatest labour leader ever.
So I think Starmers upbringing is entirely irrelevant to his appeal and cred. He'll do better with the working class because of time, that he's normal and competent.
To shoot your final point down in flames, can I introduce Boris Johnson? Neither normal, nor competent but loved by the working classes.
Is he "loved by the working classes"?
I am not convinced. More seen as a way to further Brexity wet dreams by a certain subsection. In the end they will tar and feather him for betrayal.
What difference does it make? What does being loved by them even mean? They voted for him in huge numbers, and obviously voters turn away in the end no matter who you are so whether we use the word love or not hardly matters. They trusted him sufficiently to win. That doesn't change if some day they change they mind.
Personally, I think there's some mileage in this for him. The reaction in the USA has been far worse than here.
This is pure Stephen Miller, and it will go down well with his core but it will not get him the suburban college educated whites that are slipping away from him.
One possibility is significant pre-existing immunity arising from an earlier similar virus, which would tie in with the Oxford theory
I suppose it's progress that the BBC are apparently letting people write an article with actual information in it, you just have to stuff it down the bottom and make sure everything above the fold is hot garbage.
The BBC is a total disgrace. Journalistic negligence on a vast scale.
I would not be surprised to see crossover sooner rather than later.
It is clear most people are still very worried by covid and nearly half the country have been financially protected by employment in the public sector or furloughed
Boris has paid a big price for Cummings and his brand has taken a hit
Whether this matters is not clear and the focus over the next few months will be on the economy, help for those suffering, and if covid can be contained
Also Boris will be in place at the end of the year and responsible for the deal or no deal outcome of brexit
The next election is 4 years away and many variable factors will determine just how that election pans out but I am far less worried now Corbyn is history
How might a Biden presidency affect Johnson administration (where have I heard THAT before?) My sense is that election of Bill Clinton was not fatal to John Major, but it didn't do him any favors AND it gave Tony Blair an obvious role model.
Keir Stumer sorta comes across like a Joe Biden with youthful vigor - somewhat like Joe himself back when he was borking Bork. Granted without Biden's working-class cred, but also without a propensity for foot-in-mouth disease.
“...without Biden's working-class cred...”
Huh?
A quick glance at Keith Starmer’s early life clearly indicates that he is most certainly “working class” (which was still a thing in England in the 1960s).
He was obviously very bright, and worked his way towards a good career.
Having cred with the working class has little to do with whether said person is or was working class themselves. People would laugh if Boris claimed to speak for the working class but the working class voters wouldnt. And Corbyn was a middle class guy whod spent his career at impotent protests but people thought he was the greatest labour leader ever.
So I think Starmers upbringing is entirely irrelevant to his appeal and cred. He'll do better with the working class because of time, that he's normal and competent.
To shoot your final point down in flames, can I introduce Boris Johnson? Neither normal, nor competent but loved by the working classes.
Thst doesn't shoot my point down, since I wasn't saying you need that to be loved by the working classes, I meant that's why he will do better than Corbyn with the working classes. The reference to time was to suggest also he will do better simply because itll be after yet more years of government, but not necessarily that he'll win the working classes, just do better as wont repel them.
You may be right. But Starmer underestimates Johnson's appeal to certain sectors of society at his peril.
Johnson's "Benny Hill" persona works well in the wider world and Johnson knows how to work his dog whistle masterfully.
I would not be surprised to see crossover sooner rather than later.
It is clear most people are still very worried by covid and nearly half the country have been financially protected by employment in the public sector or furloughed
Boris has paid a big price for Cummings and his brand has taken a hit
Whether this matters is not clear and the focus over the next few months will be on the economy, help for those suffering, and if covid can be contained
Also Boris will be in place at the end of the year and responsible for the deal or no deal outcome of brexit
The next election is 4 years away and many variable factors will determine just how that election pans out but I am far less worried now Corbyn is history
How might a Biden presidency affect Johnson administration (where have I heard THAT before?) My sense is that election of Bill Clinton was not fatal to John Major, but it didn't do him any favors AND it gave Tony Blair an obvious role model.
Keir Stumer sorta comes across like a Joe Biden with youthful vigor - somewhat like Joe himself back when he was borking Bork. Granted without Biden's working-class cred, but also without a propensity for foot-in-mouth disease.
“...without Biden's working-class cred...”
Huh?
A quick glance at Keith Starmer’s early life clearly indicates that he is most certainly “working class” (which was still a thing in England in the 1960s).
He was obviously very bright, and worked his way towards a good career.
Having cred with the working class has little to do with whether said person is or was working class themselves. People would laugh if Boris claimed to speak for the working class but the working class voters wouldnt. And Corbyn was a middle class guy whod spent his career at impotent protests but people thought he was the greatest labour leader ever.
So I think Starmers upbringing is entirely irrelevant to his appeal and cred. He'll do better with the working class because of time, that he's normal and competent.
To shoot your final point down in flames, can I introduce Boris Johnson? Neither normal, nor competent but loved by the working classes.
Thst doesn't shoot my point down, since I wasn't saying you need that to be loved by the working classes, I meant that's why he will do better than Corbyn with the working classes. The reference to time was to suggest also he will do better simply because itll be after yet more years of government, but not necessarily that he'll win the working classes, just do better as wont repel them.
You may be right. But Starmer underestimates Johnson's appeal to certain sectors of society at his peril.
Johnson's "Benny Hill" persona works well in the wider world and Johnson knows how to work his dog whistle masterfully.
Morning all,
I predict that the whole 'jolly gosh', 'crikey' Jennings and Derbyshire persona will have become thoroughly grating and a total turnoff well before 2024. The British public are not stupid and they can see when when someone isn't up to the job.
I give it a couple of months, and I think Jenrick and corruption will be major factors.
Corruption, self-interest, incompetence, bad economy, "time for a change".. decent Labour leader etc.
Remind you of something?
It could be a solid Labour win in 2024 (not a landslide, because.. culture wars) but very solid - say, 350 seats or so.
Yep. The ruling out of a Labour majority I often come across is imo stale thinking.
To get a majority of one Starmer needs to make a net gain of 124 seats.
To put that in context, only one party has gained that many seats at a single election since the Second World War - Tony Blair in 1997, who gained 145.
It has only happened twice more in the age of universal suffrage - in 1931, when the Conservatives gained 210 seats, and 1945 (during the war but very near the end of it) when Labour gained 239 seats.
That is not to say it is impossible. This government is already a shambles and the shit has yet to really hit the fan. Starmer, meanwhile, is exuding calm competence, moderation and dignity.
It is however going to be bloody difficult and Starmer would be wise not to raise any expectations he will struggle to meet.
I would not be surprised to see crossover sooner rather than later.
It is clear most people are still very worried by covid and nearly half the country have been financially protected by employment in the public sector or furloughed
Boris has paid a big price for Cummings and his brand has taken a hit
Whether this matters is not clear and the focus over the next few months will be on the economy, help for those suffering, and if covid can be contained
Also Boris will be in place at the end of the year and responsible for the deal or no deal outcome of brexit
The next election is 4 years away and many variable factors will determine just how that election pans out but I am far less worried now Corbyn is history
How might a Biden presidency affect Johnson administration (where have I heard THAT before?) My sense is that election of Bill Clinton was not fatal to John Major, but it didn't do him any favors AND it gave Tony Blair an obvious role model.
Keir Stumer sorta comes across like a Joe Biden with youthful vigor - somewhat like Joe himself back when he was borking Bork. Granted without Biden's working-class cred, but also without a propensity for foot-in-mouth disease.
It will be too late to effect brexit but I would hope it would help to restore relationships, not just here in the UK but worldwide after the disaster that is Trump
Hopefully the US will become a less confrontational country and to be honest any future trade deal would no doubt be based on firmer grounds than anything with Trump
As for Starmer he is far more acceptable than Corbyn, but I very much doubt he will be up against Boris. I hope 2021 will see Boris step away as he will have concluded Brexit and I doubt he is in it for the longhaul anyway
His self-delusion about being the new Churchill would tend to indicate otherwise.
Yes, I wouldnt expect the polls to change much before the end of the year.
For most people it doesn't really feel that Brexit is done. There has been no discernable change yet, so Johnson keeps that "Get Brexit Done" vote. That all changes in January. Where those votes go then will be interesting, but I expect them to fade.The economic hit and misery will be in full force by then too. Sub 30% Tory vote very possible by then.
Pinning a lot of hopes on this 'economic hit and misery' aren't you?
No, I find it profoundly depressing talking to my patients about it all. One this week had a daughter made redundant from a London fashion house, unable to get work anywhere. A furniture shop owner who hasn't sold anything for months, an employee at the Leicester Theatre that went into administration, etc etc. All this before furlough ends too.
If anything I think we grossly underestimate the long-term damage that this crisis is going to inflict. It's not just the tsunami of job losses, which is already underway, but it's the large fraction of those people who are going to be out of work for a very long time and may, even if they are relatively young, never work again. Whatever sort of recovery we eventually have and however strong or weak that turns out to be, I simply don't see where all the jobs are going to come from. Non-grocery retail is collapsing, the supermarkets have all the shelf-stackers they need, I think we can probably assume that we're entering a period of decreased consumerism coupled with increased automation, and there are really only so many of us that can be employed delivering Amazon parcels and takeaway dinners.
I am 44 and currently working for a pretty decent wage but in quite a niche occupation (basically I'm very useful where I am but feel my transferable skills are rather limited.) As long as I can stay put where I am I'll be fine, but if I'm made redundant I'm afraid I'll end up slung on the scrapheap for good. I suspect that I'm far from alone.
Government is probably going to have to address a major structural unemployment problem going forward, and if the private sector won't solve it through creating an awful lot of new jobs (and I have my doubts that it can do so on the vast scale required,) then that will mean the state having to pay people to do something through creating make work schemes, or pay them to do nothing through benefits that are sufficient to live on, or tolerate widespread poverty.
I agree largely with that but where is the money coming from if business collapses.
I've said before that the Cummings episode ran very deep. People still make jokes about it, and now there are jokes about PM Johnson. And they're not sympathetic jokes, either.
The whole Cummings situation - not just the Durham incident - is a structural disadvantage for the government. We keep hearing how he is the de facto PM. But nobody voted for him. In our political system, if you want that kind of political power you should stand for office. People don't like it.
Or be so brilliant that people will stretch a point.
Cummings thinks he meets this criteria, of course.
It would matter less if he was correct.
What about Alastair Campbell. He ruled by fear.
You're right, Campbell could be really scary, and he had that in common with Cummings. But otherwise their roles are completely different.
Campbell was about communication, spin, the message, and party discipline. He had no real input on policy, other than to give advice about whether things would land well with the public. Blair, Brown and others in a strong cabinet determined policy.
By contrast, it looks as if Cummings is the creative force behind much of the policy thinking behind this government, and most of the Cabinet are just ciphers for his creativity. He is not just a SPAD; he is the brains behind much of the government's agenda.
So a hugely different role from Campbell, and a much more risky one for an unelected adviser.
Sorry, on reflection I should be more succinct.
Campbell was Blair's servant. Cummings is Johnson's master.
Servant - the Johnson/Cummings relationship does make me think of that exact film. Weak, louche aristo (Boris Fox) gaslighted (oh yes) and dominated by his smart, driven butler (Dom Bogarde). Ended badly for Fox, IIRC.
Although in the alternative versions, Cummings has insufficient talent to be compared to Jeeves or Crichton.
You are our Carly Simon on Cummings popping, this is undeniable.
But (reluctantly) I must assume from the evidence available to me that whilst being a considerable distance away from the genius he clearly considers himself to be, he surely inhabits a piece of terrain somewhere between that and complete and utter pillock.
I would not be surprised to see crossover sooner rather than later.
It is clear most people are still very worried by covid and nearly half the country have been financially protected by employment in the public sector or furloughed
Boris has paid a big price for Cummings and his brand has taken a hit
Whether this matters is not clear and the focus over the next few months will be on the economy, help for those suffering, and if covid can be contained
Also Boris will be in place at the end of the year and responsible for the deal or no deal outcome of brexit
The next election is 4 years away and many variable factors will determine just how that election pans out but I am far less worried now Corbyn is history
How might a Biden presidency affect Johnson administration (where have I heard THAT before?) My sense is that election of Bill Clinton was not fatal to John Major, but it didn't do him any favors AND it gave Tony Blair an obvious role model.
Keir Stumer sorta comes across like a Joe Biden with youthful vigor - somewhat like Joe himself back when he was borking Bork. Granted without Biden's working-class cred, but also without a propensity for foot-in-mouth disease.
“...without Biden's working-class cred...”
Huh?
A quick glance at Keith Starmer’s early life clearly indicates that he is most certainly “working class” (which was still a thing in England in the 1960s).
He was obviously very bright, and worked his way towards a good career.
Having cred with the working class has little to do with whether said person is or was working class themselves. People would laugh if Boris claimed to speak for the working class but the working class voters wouldnt. And Corbyn was a middle class guy whod spent his career at impotent protests but people thought he was the greatest labour leader ever.
So I think Starmers upbringing is entirely irrelevant to his appeal and cred. He'll do better with the working class because of time, that he's normal and competent.
To shoot your final point down in flames, can I introduce Boris Johnson? Neither normal, nor competent but loved by the working classes.
Thst doesn't shoot my point down, since I wasn't saying you need that to be loved by the working classes, I meant that's why he will do better than Corbyn with the working classes. The reference to time was to suggest also he will do better simply because itll be after yet more years of government, but not necessarily that he'll win the working classes, just do better as wont repel them.
You may be right. But Starmer underestimates Johnson's appeal to certain sectors of society at his peril.
Johnson's "Benny Hill" persona works well in the wider world and Johnson knows how to work his dog whistle masterfully.
Morning all,
I predict that the whole 'jolly gosh', 'crikey' Jennings and Derbyshire persona will have become thoroughly grating and a total turnoff well before 2024. The British public are not stupid and they can see when when someone isn't up to the job.
The work of Anthony Buckeridge. The Jennings books loomed large in my childhood. Boris reminds me more of Nigel Molesworth!
I give it a couple of months, and I think Jenrick and corruption will be major factors.
Corruption, self-interest, incompetence, bad economy, "time for a change".. decent Labour leader etc.
Remind you of something?
It could be a solid Labour win in 2024 (not a landslide, because.. culture wars) but very solid - say, 350 seats or so.
Yep. The ruling out of a Labour majority I often come across is imo stale thinking.
To get a majority of one Starmer needs to make a net gain of 124 seats.
To put that in context, only one party has gained that many seats at a single election since the Second World War - Tony Blair in 1997, who gained 145.
It has only happened twice more in the age of universal suffrage - in 1931, when the Conservatives gained 210 seats, and 1945 (during the war but very near the end of it) when Labour gained 239 seats.
That is not to say it is impossible. This government is already a shambles and the shit has yet to really hit the fan. Starmer, meanwhile, is exuding calm competence, moderation and dignity.
It is however going to be bloody difficult and Starmer would be wise not to raise any expectations he will struggle to meet.
Totally agree. But the level of economic shit about to hit could be sufficient to produce a massive swing. We will see.
Johnson's 'administration' will be deeply, deeply unpopular by next summer imho.
I've said before that the Cummings episode ran very deep. People still make jokes about it, and now there are jokes about PM Johnson. And they're not sympathetic jokes, either.
The whole Cummings situation - not just the Durham incident - is a structural disadvantage for the government. We keep hearing how he is the de facto PM. But nobody voted for him. In our political system, if you want that kind of political power you should stand for office. People don't like it.
Or be so brilliant that people will stretch a point.
Cummings thinks he meets this criteria, of course.
It would matter less if he was correct.
What about Alastair Campbell. He ruled by fear.
You're right, Campbell could be really scary, and he had that in common with Cummings. But otherwise their roles are completely different.
Campbell was about communication, spin, the message, and party discipline. He had no real input on policy, other than to give advice about whether things would land well with the public. Blair, Brown and others in a strong cabinet determined policy.
By contrast, it looks as if Cummings is the creative force behind much of the policy thinking behind this government, and most of the Cabinet are just ciphers for his creativity. He is not just a SPAD; he is the brains behind much of the government's agenda.
So a hugely different role from Campbell, and a much more risky one for an unelected adviser.
Sorry, on reflection I should be more succinct.
Campbell was Blair's servant. Cummings is Johnson's master.
Servant - the Johnson/Cummings relationship does make me think of that exact film. Weak, louche aristo (Boris Fox) gaslighted (oh yes) and dominated by his smart, driven butler (Dom Bogarde). Ended badly for Fox, IIRC.
Although in the alternative versions, Cummings has insufficient talent to be compared to Jeeves or Crichton.
You are our Carly Simon on Cummings popping, this is undeniable.
But (reluctantly) I must assume from the evidence available to me that whilst being a considerable distance away from the genius he clearly considers himself to be, he surely inhabits a piece of terrain somewhere between that and complete and utter pillock.
*Thinks hard.*
Nah, I’m still sticking with ‘complete and utter pillock.’
(Amusingly, autocorrect turned that into ‘pollock.’ Mind you it has been very shit recently. It keeps turning capital letters into indefinite articles.)
I give it a couple of months, and I think Jenrick and corruption will be major factors.
Corruption, self-interest, incompetence, bad economy, "time for a change".. decent Labour leader etc.
Remind you of something?
It could be a solid Labour win in 2024 (not a landslide, because.. culture wars) but very solid - say, 350 seats or so.
Yep. The ruling out of a Labour majority I often come across is imo stale thinking.
To get a majority of one Starmer needs to make a net gain of 124 seats.
To put that in context, only one party has gained that many seats at a single election since the Second World War - Tony Blair in 1997, who gained 145.
It has only happened twice more in the age of universal suffrage - in 1931, when the Conservatives gained 210 seats, and 1945 (during the war but very near the end of it) when Labour gained 239 seats.
That is not to say it is impossible. This government is already a shambles and the shit has yet to really hit the fan. Starmer, meanwhile, is exuding calm competence, moderation and dignity.
It is however going to be bloody difficult and Starmer would be wise not to raise any expectations he will struggle to meet.
Totally agree. But the level of economic shit about to hit could be sufficient to produce a massive swing. We will see.
Johnson's 'administration' will be deeply, deeply unpopular by next summer imho.
But there's still 3 more years to undo that, I think Starmer's approach of negative comments and just generally posing problems rather than solutions is also not going down as well as people believe. He compares favourably to Boris, yes, but that's a low bar that has itself been taken down a few levels by the poor virus response. If anything Starmer should be much further ahead.
I give it a couple of months, and I think Jenrick and corruption will be major factors.
Corruption, self-interest, incompetence, bad economy, "time for a change".. decent Labour leader etc.
Remind you of something?
It could be a solid Labour win in 2024 (not a landslide, because.. culture wars) but very solid - say, 350 seats or so.
Yep. The ruling out of a Labour majority I often come across is imo stale thinking.
To get a majority of one Starmer needs to make a net gain of 124 seats.
To put that in context, only one party has gained that many seats at a single election since the Second World War - Tony Blair in 1997, who gained 145.
It has only happened twice more in the age of universal suffrage - in 1931, when the Conservatives gained 210 seats, and 1945 (during the war but very near the end of it) when Labour gained 239 seats.
That is not to say it is impossible. This government is already a shambles and the shit has yet to really hit the fan. Starmer, meanwhile, is exuding calm competence, moderation and dignity.
It is however going to be bloody difficult and Starmer would be wise not to raise any expectations he will struggle to meet.
Totally agree. But the level of economic shit about to hit could be sufficient to produce a massive swing. We will see.
Johnson's 'administration' will be deeply, deeply unpopular by next summer imho.
I give it a couple of months, and I think Jenrick and corruption will be major factors.
Corruption, self-interest, incompetence, bad economy, "time for a change".. decent Labour leader etc.
Remind you of something?
It could be a solid Labour win in 2024 (not a landslide, because.. culture wars) but very solid - say, 350 seats or so.
Yep. The ruling out of a Labour majority I often come across is imo stale thinking.
To get a majority of one Starmer needs to make a net gain of 124 seats.
To put that in context, only one party has gained that many seats at a single election since the Second World War - Tony Blair in 1997, who gained 145.
It has only happened twice more in the age of universal suffrage - in 1931, when the Conservatives gained 210 seats, and 1945 (during the war but very near the end of it) when Labour gained 239 seats.
That is not to say it is impossible. This government is already a shambles and the shit has yet to really hit the fan. Starmer, meanwhile, is exuding calm competence, moderation and dignity.
It is however going to be bloody difficult and Starmer would be wise not to raise any expectations he will struggle to meet.
Yeah yeah yeah. Whatever.
It will happen. The polls are all over the place these days. The Tories were finished just over a year ago, and almost came last in the European Parliament elections, and then they near enough won a landslide.
The old rules don't apply anymore. You have to look for the zeitgeist.
I give it a couple of months, and I think Jenrick and corruption will be major factors.
Corruption, self-interest, incompetence, bad economy, "time for a change".. decent Labour leader etc.
Remind you of something?
It could be a solid Labour win in 2024 (not a landslide, because.. culture wars) but very solid - say, 350 seats or so.
Yep. The ruling out of a Labour majority I often come across is imo stale thinking.
To get a majority of one Starmer needs to make a net gain of 124 seats.
To put that in context, only one party has gained that many seats at a single election since the Second World War - Tony Blair in 1997, who gained 145.
It has only happened twice more in the age of universal suffrage - in 1931, when the Conservatives gained 210 seats, and 1945 (during the war but very near the end of it) when Labour gained 239 seats.
That is not to say it is impossible. This government is already a shambles and the shit has yet to really hit the fan. Starmer, meanwhile, is exuding calm competence, moderation and dignity.
It is however going to be bloody difficult and Starmer would be wise not to raise any expectations he will struggle to meet.
Totally agree. But the level of economic shit about to hit could be sufficient to produce a massive swing. We will see.
Johnson's 'administration' will be deeply, deeply unpopular by next summer imho.
But there's still 3 more years to undo that, I think Starmer's approach of negative comments and just generally posing problems rather than solutions is also not going down as well as people believe. He compares favourably to Boris, yes, but that's a low bar that has itself been taken down a few levels by the poor virus response. If anything Starmer should be much further ahead.
If he has offered to help and been rebuffed, I have to say I don’t see why he’s honour bound to offer solutions. John Smith has no solutions to Black Wednesday or the Maastricht crisis, but that didn’t stop him playing them for all they were worth politically. For the matter of that, George Osborne looked totally bewildered during the banking crisis, offering ‘Sector bail ins’ as a solution when he clearly didn’t understand the concept.
The real problem is of course that we have unfortunately come to a time when there are no good solutions - only bad ones and worse ones.
Personally, I think there's some mileage in this for him. The reaction in the USA has been far worse than here.
This is pure Stephen Miller, and it will go down well with his core but it will not get him the suburban college educated whites that are slipping away from him.
It will go down well with more than his core.
If you don't think moderate rational independents also don't worry about the lunacy of far-left mobs, then you're not thinking hard enough.
On topic, I now expect Labour to form the next government.
I feel it in my bones: Boris is incompetent and will take the Tory brand down with him, whilst Starmer knows what he's doing.
This article shows poll-leads mean jack. They can be massive, and then evaporate in weeks - and the reverse can happen too.
But, I expect clear Labour leads in 2021 once Brexit has taken its final form, the economy continues to struggle to recover and the Government struggles to deliver its "levelling up" projects.
I remember there was a similar "in the bones" feeling accross the country in 1990/1991.
I would not be surprised to see crossover sooner rather than later.
It is clear most people are still very worried by covid and nearly half the country have been financially protected by employment in the public sector or furloughed
Boris has paid a big price for Cummings and his brand has taken a hit
Whether this matters is not clear and the focus over the next few months will be on the economy, help for those suffering, and if covid can be contained
Also Boris will be in place at the end of the year and responsible for the deal or no deal outcome of brexit
The next election is 4 years away and many variable factors will determine just how that election pans out but I am far less worried now Corbyn is history
How might a Biden presidency affect Johnson administration (where have I heard THAT before?) My sense is that election of Bill Clinton was not fatal to John Major, but it didn't do him any favors AND it gave Tony Blair an obvious role model.
Keir Stumer sorta comes across like a Joe Biden with youthful vigor - somewhat like Joe himself back when he was borking Bork. Granted without Biden's working-class cred, but also without a propensity for foot-in-mouth disease.
“...without Biden's working-class cred...”
Huh?
A quick glance at Keith Starmer’s early life clearly indicates that he is most certainly “working class” (which was still a thing in England in the 1960s).
He was obviously very bright, and worked his way towards a good career.
Having cred with the working class has little to do with whether said person is or was working class themselves. People would laugh if Boris claimed to speak for the working class but the working class voters wouldnt. And Corbyn was a middle class guy whod spent his career at impotent protests but people thought he was the greatest labour leader ever.
So I think Starmers upbringing is entirely irrelevant to his appeal and cred. He'll do better with the working class because of time, that he's normal and competent.
To shoot your final point down in flames, can I introduce Boris Johnson? Neither normal, nor competent but loved by the working classes.
Is he "loved by the working classes"?
I am not convinced. More seen as a way to further Brexity wet dreams by a certain subsection. In the end they will tar and feather him for betrayal.
What difference does it make? What does being loved by them even mean? They voted for him in huge numbers, and obviously voters turn away in the end no matter who you are so whether we use the word love or not hardly matters. They trusted him sufficiently to win. That doesn't change if some day they change they mind.
I would see love as a term that means an enduring commitment. It looks more like a one night stand to me.
Foredeck tugging obsequience to the public school boys is still a thing in the English working classes., however much I find it incomprehensible.
I would not be surprised to see crossover sooner rather than later.
It is clear most people are still very worried by covid and nearly half the country have been financially protected by employment in the public sector or furloughed
Boris has paid a big price for Cummings and his brand has taken a hit
Whether this matters is not clear and the focus over the next few months will be on the economy, help for those suffering, and if covid can be contained
Also Boris will be in place at the end of the year and responsible for the deal or no deal outcome of brexit
The next election is 4 years away and many variable factors will determine just how that election pans out but I am far less worried now Corbyn is history
How might a Biden presidency affect Johnson administration (where have I heard THAT before?) My sense is that election of Bill Clinton was not fatal to John Major, but it didn't do him any favors AND it gave Tony Blair an obvious role model.
Keir Stumer sorta comes across like a Joe Biden with youthful vigor - somewhat like Joe himself back when he was borking Bork. Granted without Biden's working-class cred, but also without a propensity for foot-in-mouth disease.
“...without Biden's working-class cred...”
Huh?
A quick glance at Keith Starmer’s early life clearly indicates that he is most certainly “working class” (which was still a thing in England in the 1960s).
He was obviously very bright, and worked his way towards a good career.
Having cred with the working class has little to do with whether said person is or was working class themselves. People would laugh if Boris claimed to speak for the working class but the working class voters wouldnt. And Corbyn was a middle class guy whod spent his career at impotent protests but people thought he was the greatest labour leader ever.
So I think Starmers upbringing is entirely irrelevant to his appeal and cred. He'll do better with the working class because of time, that he's normal and competent.
To shoot your final point down in flames, can I introduce Boris Johnson? Neither normal, nor competent but loved by the working classes.
Is he "loved by the working classes"?
I am not convinced. More seen as a way to further Brexity wet dreams by a certain subsection. In the end they will tar and feather him for betrayal.
What difference does it make? What does being loved by them even mean? They voted for him in huge numbers, and obviously voters turn away in the end no matter who you are so whether we use the word love or not hardly matters. They trusted him sufficiently to win. That doesn't change if some day they change they mind.
I would see love as a term that means an enduring commitment. It looks more like a one night stand to me.
Foredeck tugging obsequience to the public school boys is still a thing in the English working classes., however much I find it incomprehensible.
I see I’m not the only one whose autocorrect is causing issues!
Personally, I think there's some mileage in this for him. The reaction in the USA has been far worse than here.
This is pure Stephen Miller, and it will go down well with his core but it will not get him the suburban college educated whites that are slipping away from him.
They are gone. It's the white male non-college he needs to hold onto in massive numbers (and these are slipping).
I would not be surprised to see crossover sooner rather than later.
It is clear most people are still very worried by covid and nearly half the country have been financially protected by employment in the public sector or furloughed
Boris has paid a big price for Cummings and his brand has taken a hit
Whether this matters is not clear and the focus over the next few months will be on the economy, help for those suffering, and if covid can be contained
Also Boris will be in place at the end of the year and responsible for the deal or no deal outcome of brexit
The next election is 4 years away and many variable factors will determine just how that election pans out but I am far less worried now Corbyn is history
How might a Biden presidency affect Johnson administration (where have I heard THAT before?) My sense is that election of Bill Clinton was not fatal to John Major, but it didn't do him any favors AND it gave Tony Blair an obvious role model.
Keir Stumer sorta comes across like a Joe Biden with youthful vigor - somewhat like Joe himself back when he was borking Bork. Granted without Biden's working-class cred, but also without a propensity for foot-in-mouth disease.
“...without Biden's working-class cred...”
Huh?
A quick glance at Keith Starmer’s early life clearly indicates that he is most certainly “working class” (which was still a thing in England in the 1960s).
He was obviously very bright, and worked his way towards a good career.
Having cred with the working class has little to do with whether said person is or was working class themselves. People would laugh if Boris claimed to speak for the working class but the working class voters wouldnt. And Corbyn was a middle class guy whod spent his career at impotent protests but people thought he was the greatest labour leader ever.
So I think Starmers upbringing is entirely irrelevant to his appeal and cred. He'll do better with the working class because of time, that he's normal and competent.
To shoot your final point down in flames, can I introduce Boris Johnson? Neither normal, nor competent but loved by the working classes.
Is he "loved by the working classes"?
I am not convinced. More seen as a way to further Brexity wet dreams by a certain subsection. In the end they will tar and feather him for betrayal.
I mix with a variety of people, those who in the past I would have had as Wilsonian Labourites, won't have a bad word said for Johnson.
Conversely those I would have had down as Heathite Tories can't bear Johnson.
I would not be surprised to see crossover sooner rather than later.
It is clear most people are still very worried by covid and nearly half the country have been financially protected by employment in the public sector or furloughed
Boris has paid a big price for Cummings and his brand has taken a hit
Whether this matters is not clear and the focus over the next few months will be on the economy, help for those suffering, and if covid can be contained
Also Boris will be in place at the end of the year and responsible for the deal or no deal outcome of brexit
The next election is 4 years away and many variable factors will determine just how that election pans out but I am far less worried now Corbyn is history
How might a Biden presidency affect Johnson administration (where have I heard THAT before?) My sense is that election of Bill Clinton was not fatal to John Major, but it didn't do him any favors AND it gave Tony Blair an obvious role model.
Keir Stumer sorta comes across like a Joe Biden with youthful vigor - somewhat like Joe himself back when he was borking Bork. Granted without Biden's working-class cred, but also without a propensity for foot-in-mouth disease.
“...without Biden's working-class cred...”
Huh?
A quick glance at Keith Starmer’s early life clearly indicates that he is most certainly “working class” (which was still a thing in England in the 1960s).
He was obviously very bright, and worked his way towards a good career.
Having cred with the working class has little to do with whether said person is or was working class themselves. People would laugh if Boris claimed to speak for the working class but the working class voters wouldnt. And Corbyn was a middle class guy whod spent his career at impotent protests but people thought he was the greatest labour leader ever.
So I think Starmers upbringing is entirely irrelevant to his appeal and cred. He'll do better with the working class because of time, that he's normal and competent.
To shoot your final point down in flames, can I introduce Boris Johnson? Neither normal, nor competent but loved by the working classes.
Is he "loved by the working classes"?
I am not convinced. More seen as a way to further Brexity wet dreams by a certain subsection. In the end they will tar and feather him for betrayal.
I mix with a variet of people, those who in the past I would have had as Wilsonian Labourites, won't have a bad word said for Johnson.
Conversely those I would have had down as Heathite Tories can't bear Johnson.
I won’t have a bad word said against Johnson.
Anything less than a whole paragraph does him less than justice.
If Johnson dodges this bullet with "pub chaos" etched into it tonight, he will be very lucky indeed.
Albeit it cuts two ways for the country:
1) We don’t need more chaos or infections
2) In the long run, it would be better for us if Johnson were out of Downing Street.
He survives pub chaos fairly easily.
He'll struggle to survive a consequent second wave that other european countries don't have. (although we shouldn't underestimate what a limpet he will be in office).
I give it a couple of months, and I think Jenrick and corruption will be major factors.
Corruption, self-interest, incompetence, bad economy, "time for a change".. decent Labour leader etc.
Remind you of something?
It could be a solid Labour win in 2024 (not a landslide, because.. culture wars) but very solid - say, 350 seats or so.
Yep. The ruling out of a Labour majority I often come across is imo stale thinking.
I think we may all be looking to a 2024 labour government but what will it (or even a conservative government) be able to do with a wasteland economy
I'm not as pessimistic as that. I think the vaccine is coming next year. This plus seeing the back of Trump makes me feel reasonably chipper about 2022 and beyond.
If Johnson dodges this bullet with "pub chaos" etched into it tonight, he will be very lucky indeed.
Albeit it cuts two ways for the country:
1) We don’t need more chaos or infections
2) In the long run, it would be better for us if Johnson were out of Downing Street.
He survives pub chaos fairly easily.
He'll struggle to survive a consequent second wave that other european countries don't have. (although we shouldn't underestimate what a limpet he will be in office).
The second wave is nailed on? As for pub chaos, I thought some absurdly small fraction of people were actually going to go out in the next few days.
I would not be surprised to see crossover sooner rather than later.
It is clear most people are still very worried by covid and nearly half the country have been financially protected by employment in the public sector or furloughed
Boris has paid a big price for Cummings and his brand has taken a hit
Whether this matters is not clear and the focus over the next few months will be on the economy, help for those suffering, and if covid can be contained
Also Boris will be in place at the end of the year and responsible for the deal or no deal outcome of brexit
The next election is 4 years away and many variable factors will determine just how that election pans out but I am far less worried now Corbyn is history
How might a Biden presidency affect Johnson administration (where have I heard THAT before?) My sense is that election of Bill Clinton was not fatal to John Major, but it didn't do him any favors AND it gave Tony Blair an obvious role model.
Keir Stumer sorta comes across like a Joe Biden with youthful vigor - somewhat like Joe himself back when he was borking Bork. Granted without Biden's working-class cred, but also without a propensity for foot-in-mouth disease.
It will be too late to effect brexit but I would hope it would help to restore relationships, not just here in the UK but worldwide after the disaster that is Trump
Hopefully the US will become a less confrontational country and to be honest any future trade deal would no doubt be based on firmer grounds than anything with Trump
As for Starmer he is far more acceptable than Corbyn, but I very much doubt he will be up against Boris. I hope 2021 will see Boris step away as he will have concluded Brexit and I doubt he is in it for the longhaul anyway
His self-delusion about being the new Churchill would tend to indicate otherwise.
Yes, I wouldnt expect the polls to change much before the end of the year.
For most people it doesn't really feel that Brexit is done. There has been no discernable change yet, so Johnson keeps that "Get Brexit Done" vote. That all changes in January. Where those votes go then will be interesting, but I expect them to fade.The economic hit and misery will be in full force by then too. Sub 30% Tory vote very possible by then.
Pinning a lot of hopes on this 'economic hit and misery' aren't you?
No, I find it profoundly depressing talking to my patients about it all. One this week had a daughter made redundant from a London fashion house, unable to get work anywhere. A furniture shop owner who hasn't sold anything for months, an employee at the Leicester Theatre that went into administration, etc etc. All this before furlough ends too.
If anything I think we grossly underestimate the long-term damage that this crisis is going to inflict. It's not just the tsunami of job losses, which is already underway, but it's the large fraction of those people who are going to be out of work for a very long time and may, even if they are relatively young, never work again. Whatever sort of recovery we eventually have and however strong or weak that turns out to be, I simply don't see where all the jobs are going to come from. Non-grocery retail is collapsing, the supermarkets have all the shelf-stackers they need, I think we can probably assume that we're entering a period of decreased consumerism coupled with increased automation, and there are really only so many of us that can be employed delivering Amazon parcels and takeaway dinners.
I am 44 and currently working for a pretty decent wage but in quite a niche occupation (basically I'm very useful where I am but feel my transferable skills are rather limited.) As long as I can stay put where I am I'll be fine, but if I'm made redundant I'm afraid I'll end up slung on the scrapheap for good. I suspect that I'm far from alone.
Government is probably going to have to address a major structural unemployment problem going forward, and if the private sector won't solve it through creating an awful lot of new jobs (and I have my doubts that it can do so on the vast scale required,) then that will mean the state having to pay people to do something through creating make work schemes, or pay them to do nothing through benefits that are sufficient to live on, or tolerate widespread poverty.
I was chatting to my fiftysmething receptionist this week. She lives with her two twenty something daughters and thinks they are in for a hell of a shock. It is only those of us in our fifties who remember mass unemployment, where for years at a time young people were unemployed and unable to find any work at all.
We both think those days are returning. The structural changes in the economy in the next couple of years are that severe.
I would not be surprised to see crossover sooner rather than later.
It is clear most people are still very worried by covid and nearly half the country have been financially protected by employment in the public sector or furloughed
Boris has paid a big price for Cummings and his brand has taken a hit
Whether this matters is not clear and the focus over the next few months will be on the economy, help for those suffering, and if covid can be contained
Also Boris will be in place at the end of the year and responsible for the deal or no deal outcome of brexit
The next election is 4 years away and many variable factors will determine just how that election pans out but I am far less worried now Corbyn is history
How might a Biden presidency affect Johnson administration (where have I heard THAT before?) My sense is that election of Bill Clinton was not fatal to John Major, but it didn't do him any favors AND it gave Tony Blair an obvious role model.
Keir Stumer sorta comes across like a Joe Biden with youthful vigor - somewhat like Joe himself back when he was borking Bork. Granted without Biden's working-class cred, but also without a propensity for foot-in-mouth disease.
“...without Biden's working-class cred...”
Huh?
A quick glance at Keith Starmer’s early life clearly indicates that he is most certainly “working class” (which was still a thing in England in the 1960s).
He was obviously very bright, and worked his way towards a good career.
Having cred with the working class has little to do with whether said person is or was working class themselves. People would laugh if Boris claimed to speak for the working class but the working class voters wouldnt. And Corbyn was a middle class guy whod spent his career at impotent protests but people thought he was the greatest labour leader ever.
So I think Starmers upbringing is entirely irrelevant to his appeal and cred. He'll do better with the working class because of time, that he's normal and competent.
To shoot your final point down in flames, can I introduce Boris Johnson? Neither normal, nor competent but loved by the working classes.
Is he "loved by the working classes"?
I am not convinced. More seen as a way to further Brexity wet dreams by a certain subsection. In the end they will tar and feather him for betrayal.
I mix with a variet of people, those who in the past I would have had as Wilsonian Labourites, won't have a bad word said for Johnson.
Conversely those I would have had down as Heathite Tories can't bear Johnson.
I won’t have a bad word said against Johnson.
Anything less than a whole paragraph does him less than justice.
The 'B' streamers from Ledbury Grammar School love the guy!
Distancing anecdote: local shop was unusually busy this morning. Not packed, but busier. One dingbat thought a foot = six feet, but others were maintaining distance pretty well.
The media keeps saying he’s the de facto PM. But he’s not. He’s an influential adviser but not the PM.
What distinguishes the PM from any other minister?
He sets the agenda. That's Cummings, no BoZo.
He can hire and fire ministers. That's Cummings, no BoZo.
That's why people call him the de facto PM. He exercises the functions of the role.
That’s what the media says
No one knows what happens behind closed doors
Well that's all right then.
Frankly it’s pathetic
The king has always had “evil counsellors”. I’m reading a great book about the Noble Revolt against Charles I* and the primary attack was against on Stafford and Laud.
In an age when criticising the King meant execution for treason that made sense. Today if you don’t like what the government does blame Boris. It doesn’t matter who’s advice he takes. Boris is accountable.
* It wasn’t the simple Parliament vs the king story people believe. The Rich family - Warwick, Essex, Holland and their allies the Russells (Bedford) - were the prime movers. Pym etc were all part of their entourage.
I would not be surprised to see crossover sooner rather than later.
It is clear most people are still very worried by covid and nearly half the country have been financially protected by employment in the public sector or furloughed
Boris has paid a big price for Cummings and his brand has taken a hit
Whether this matters is not clear and the focus over the next few months will be on the economy, help for those suffering, and if covid can be contained
Also Boris will be in place at the end of the year and responsible for the deal or no deal outcome of brexit
The next election is 4 years away and many variable factors will determine just how that election pans out but I am far less worried now Corbyn is history
How might a Biden presidency affect Johnson administration (where have I heard THAT before?) My sense is that election of Bill Clinton was not fatal to John Major, but it didn't do him any favors AND it gave Tony Blair an obvious role model.
Keir Stumer sorta comes across like a Joe Biden with youthful vigor - somewhat like Joe himself back when he was borking Bork. Granted without Biden's working-class cred, but also without a propensity for foot-in-mouth disease.
“...without Biden's working-class cred...”
Huh?
A quick glance at Keith Starmer’s early life clearly indicates that he is most certainly “working class” (which was still a thing in England in the 1960s).
He was obviously very bright, and worked his way towards a good career.
Having cred with the working class has little to do with whether said person is or was working class themselves. People would laugh if Boris claimed to speak for the working class but the working class voters wouldnt. And Corbyn was a middle class guy whod spent his career at impotent protests but people thought he was the greatest labour leader ever.
So I think Starmers upbringing is entirely irrelevant to his appeal and cred. He'll do better with the working class because of time, that he's normal and competent.
To shoot your final point down in flames, can I introduce Boris Johnson? Neither normal, nor competent but loved by the working classes.
Is he "loved by the working classes"?
I am not convinced. More seen as a way to further Brexity wet dreams by a certain subsection. In the end they will tar and feather him for betrayal.
I mix with a variet of people, those who in the past I would have had as Wilsonian Labourites, won't have a bad word said for Johnson.
Conversely those I would have had down as Heathite Tories can't bear Johnson.
I won’t have a bad word said against Johnson.
Anything less than a whole paragraph does him less than justice.
The 'B' streamers from Ledbury Grammar School love the guy!
I’m not in touch with many people from Newent now. Insofar as I am, they seem to be more liberal than the rest of the Forest is these days.
I would not be surprised to see crossover sooner rather than later.
It is clear most people are still very worried by covid and nearly half the country have been financially protected by employment in the public sector or furloughed
Boris has paid a big price for Cummings and his brand has taken a hit
Whether this matters is not clear and the focus over the next few months will be on the economy, help for those suffering, and if covid can be contained
Also Boris will be in place at the end of the year and responsible for the deal or no deal outcome of brexit
The next election is 4 years away and many variable factors will determine just how that election pans out but I am far less worried now Corbyn is history
How might a Biden presidency affect Johnson administration (where have I heard THAT before?) My sense is that election of Bill Clinton was not fatal to John Major, but it didn't do him any favors AND it gave Tony Blair an obvious role model.
Keir Stumer sorta comes across like a Joe Biden with youthful vigor - somewhat like Joe himself back when he was borking Bork. Granted without Biden's working-class cred, but also without a propensity for foot-in-mouth disease.
“...without Biden's working-class cred...”
Huh?
A quick glance at Keith Starmer’s early life clearly indicates that he is most certainly “working class” (which was still a thing in England in the 1960s).
He was obviously very bright, and worked his way towards a good career.
Having cred with the working class has little to do with whether said person is or was working class themselves. People would laugh if Boris claimed to speak for the working class but the working class voters wouldnt. And Corbyn was a middle class guy whod spent his career at impotent protests but people thought he was the greatest labour leader ever.
So I think Starmers upbringing is entirely irrelevant to his appeal and cred. He'll do better with the working class because of time, that he's normal and competent.
To shoot your final point down in flames, can I introduce Boris Johnson? Neither normal, nor competent but loved by the working classes.
Is he "loved by the working classes"?
I am not convinced. More seen as a way to further Brexity wet dreams by a certain subsection. In the end they will tar and feather him for betrayal.
What difference does it make? What does being loved by them even mean? They voted for him in huge numbers, and obviously voters turn away in the end no matter who you are so whether we use the word love or not hardly matters. They trusted him sufficiently to win. That doesn't change if some day they change they mind.
I would see love as a term that means an enduring commitment. It looks more like a one night stand to me.
Foredeck tugging obsequience to the public school boys is still a thing in the English working classes., however much I find it incomprehensible.
That's pretty insulting and smacks of false consciousness nonsense - on what do you base that other than over representation in our politics/law/etc of public school folk?
I give it a couple of months, and I think Jenrick and corruption will be major factors.
Corruption, self-interest, incompetence, bad economy, "time for a change".. decent Labour leader etc.
Remind you of something?
It could be a solid Labour win in 2024 (not a landslide, because.. culture wars) but very solid - say, 350 seats or so.
Yep. The ruling out of a Labour majority I often come across is imo stale thinking.
To get a majority of one Starmer needs to make a net gain of 124 seats.
To put that in context, only one party has gained that many seats at a single election since the Second World War - Tony Blair in 1997, who gained 145.
It has only happened twice more in the age of universal suffrage - in 1931, when the Conservatives gained 210 seats, and 1945 (during the war but very near the end of it) when Labour gained 239 seats.
That is not to say it is impossible. This government is already a shambles and the shit has yet to really hit the fan. Starmer, meanwhile, is exuding calm competence, moderation and dignity.
It is however going to be bloody difficult and Starmer would be wise not to raise any expectations he will struggle to meet.
Totally agree. But the level of economic shit about to hit could be sufficient to produce a massive swing. We will see.
Johnson's 'administration' will be deeply, deeply unpopular by next summer imho.
But there's still 3 more years to undo that, I think Starmer's approach of negative comments and just generally posing problems rather than solutions is also not going down as well as people believe. He compares favourably to Boris, yes, but that's a low bar that has itself been taken down a few levels by the poor virus response. If anything Starmer should be much further ahead.
If he has offered to help and been rebuffed, I have to say I don’t see why he’s honour bound to offer solutions. John Smith has no solutions to Black Wednesday or the Maastricht crisis, but that didn’t stop him playing them for all they were worth politically. For the matter of that, George Osborne looked totally bewildered during the banking crisis, offering ‘Sector bail ins’ as a solution when he clearly didn’t understand the concept.
The real problem is of course that we have unfortunately come to a time when there are no good solutions - only bad ones and worse ones.
Maybe solutions is the wrong word, alternative is probably better. What would Labour do in these situations, as a voter I still don't know and I pay more attention than most. He seems content to say what Labour would have done but that's not the same thing, it's the main reason Labour are still behind in the polls.
Personally, I think there's some mileage in this for him. The reaction in the USA has been far worse than here.
This is pure Stephen Miller, and it will go down well with his core but it will not get him the suburban college educated whites that are slipping away from him.
They are gone. It's the white male non-college he needs to hold onto in massive numbers (and these are slipping).
I think there's so much confirmation bias on Trump on this site.
Doesn't help that one or two posters have taken it upon themselves to attack anyone who suggests otherwise (you know who you are) too.
If Johnson dodges this bullet with "pub chaos" etched into it tonight, he will be very lucky indeed.
Probably. Every relaxation moment has been accompanied by stories of confusion and chaos, even if that is not representative or even if communication was pretty decent, so a wider action communicated less well is almost bound to have more incidents.
Personally, I think there's some mileage in this for him. The reaction in the USA has been far worse than here.
This is pure Stephen Miller, and it will go down well with his core but it will not get him the suburban college educated whites that are slipping away from him.
It will go down well with more than his core.
If you don't think moderate rational independents also don't worry about the lunacy of far-left mobs, then you're not thinking hard enough.
It has the potential to play well with independents But it is being written by Stephen Miller. It is absolutely. Soaked in his brand of white supremacist. Dispensing with the dog whistle and just shouting it out.
A large chunk of the Republican vote vote Republican despite the racism. Focus groups show that you gather a bunch of suburban 2016 Trump voters and ask them questions about how he has done they will defend him on everything expect when it comes to race relations at which point they will bury him.
Personally, I think there's some mileage in this for him. The reaction in the USA has been far worse than here.
The BBC said this morning that BLM was “targeting Confederate statutes”.
That’s just crappy journalism. They really need to up their standards. Washington, Roosevelt, Huq (?spelling), Father Serra - none of them were Confederates.
Unless you are being very generous with your use of the word “targeting”
I give it a couple of months, and I think Jenrick and corruption will be major factors.
Corruption, self-interest, incompetence, bad economy, "time for a change".. decent Labour leader etc.
Remind you of something?
It could be a solid Labour win in 2024 (not a landslide, because.. culture wars) but very solid - say, 350 seats or so.
Yep. The ruling out of a Labour majority I often come across is imo stale thinking.
To get a majority of one Starmer needs to make a net gain of 124 seats.
To put that in context, only one party has gained that many seats at a single election since the Second World War - Tony Blair in 1997, who gained 145.
It has only happened twice more in the age of universal suffrage - in 1931, when the Conservatives gained 210 seats, and 1945 (during the war but very near the end of it) when Labour gained 239 seats.
That is not to say it is impossible. This government is already a shambles and the shit has yet to really hit the fan. Starmer, meanwhile, is exuding calm competence, moderation and dignity.
It is however going to be bloody difficult and Starmer would be wise not to raise any expectations he will struggle to meet.
Well it's 3.25 on Betfair. In English that is "deemed quite likely" - which is how I would put it if I hadn't looked up the odds first. I'm not backing it right now, tbf, but neither am I laying it.
I give it a couple of months, and I think Jenrick and corruption will be major factors.
Corruption, self-interest, incompetence, bad economy, "time for a change".. decent Labour leader etc.
Remind you of something?
It could be a solid Labour win in 2024 (not a landslide, because.. culture wars) but very solid - say, 350 seats or so.
Yep. The ruling out of a Labour majority I often come across is imo stale thinking.
To get a majority of one Starmer needs to make a net gain of 124 seats.
To put that in context, only one party has gained that many seats at a single election since the Second World War - Tony Blair in 1997, who gained 145.
It has only happened twice more in the age of universal suffrage - in 1931, when the Conservatives gained 210 seats, and 1945 (during the war but very near the end of it) when Labour gained 239 seats.
That is not to say it is impossible. This government is already a shambles and the shit has yet to really hit the fan. Starmer, meanwhile, is exuding calm competence, moderation and dignity.
It is however going to be bloody difficult and Starmer would be wise not to raise any expectations he will struggle to meet.
Totally agree. But the level of economic shit about to hit could be sufficient to produce a massive swing. We will see.
Johnson's 'administration' will be deeply, deeply unpopular by next summer imho.
But there's still 3 more years to undo that, I think Starmer's approach of negative comments and just generally posing problems rather than solutions is also not going down as well as people believe. He compares favourably to Boris, yes, but that's a low bar that has itself been taken down a few levels by the poor virus response. If anything Starmer should be much further ahead.
If he has offered to help and been rebuffed, I have to say I don’t see why he’s honour bound to offer solutions. John Smith has no solutions to Black Wednesday or the Maastricht crisis, but that didn’t stop him playing them for all they were worth politically. For the matter of that, George Osborne looked totally bewildered during the banking crisis, offering ‘Sector bail ins’ as a solution when he clearly didn’t understand the concept.
The real problem is of course that we have unfortunately come to a time when there are no good solutions - only bad ones and worse ones.
Maybe solutions is the wrong word, alternative is probably better. What would Labour do in these situations, as a voter I still don't know and I pay more attention than most. He seems content to say what Labour would have done but that's not the same thing, it's the main reason Labour are still behind in the polls.
That is a fair point. The political risk for him though is that when the situation changes and he needs new solutions he will be portrayed, however unfairly, as a flip-flopper. Think of all the hostages to fortune Cameron gave from 2005-2007.
There was a philosopher who said he had often regretted what he had said but had never regretted being silent. While that’s a rather crude oversimplification - if only one of those officers standing next to George Floyd had protested, or one of Weinstein’s or Epstein’s associates blown the whistle - Starmer’s course isn’t necessarily a foolish one. He needs to be ready and to be heeded when the time is right, and as an election is almost certainly a long way off, that isn’t now.
I give it a couple of months, and I think Jenrick and corruption will be major factors.
Corruption, self-interest, incompetence, bad economy, "time for a change".. decent Labour leader etc.
Remind you of something?
It could be a solid Labour win in 2024 (not a landslide, because.. culture wars) but very solid - say, 350 seats or so.
Yep. The ruling out of a Labour majority I often come across is imo stale thinking.
To get a majority of one Starmer needs to make a net gain of 124 seats.
To put that in context, only one party has gained that many seats at a single election since the Second World War - Tony Blair in 1997, who gained 145.
It has only happened twice more in the age of universal suffrage - in 1931, when the Conservatives gained 210 seats, and 1945 (during the war but very near the end of it) when Labour gained 239 seats.
That is not to say it is impossible. This government is already a shambles and the shit has yet to really hit the fan. Starmer, meanwhile, is exuding calm competence, moderation and dignity.
It is however going to be bloody difficult and Starmer would be wise not to raise any expectations he will struggle to meet.
Totally agree. But the level of economic shit about to hit could be sufficient to produce a massive swing. We will see.
Johnson's 'administration' will be deeply, deeply unpopular by next summer imho.
That'd be 2 years into his administration to boot, when it would not be unexpected in non-Corbyn times for an opposition to be making good headway in the polls in any case.
Personally, I think there's some mileage in this for him. The reaction in the USA has been far worse than here.
This is pure Stephen Miller, and it will go down well with his core but it will not get him the suburban college educated whites that are slipping away from him.
They are gone. It's the white male non-college he needs to hold onto in massive numbers (and these are slipping).
I think there's so much confirmation bias on Trump on this site.
Doesn't help that one or two posters have taken it upon themselves to attack anyone who suggests otherwise (you know who you are) too.
This is a betting site.
Agreed, apparently saying that Trump might not lose is the same as saying you support him to some posters.
I give it a couple of months, and I think Jenrick and corruption will be major factors.
Corruption, self-interest, incompetence, bad economy, "time for a change".. decent Labour leader etc.
Remind you of something?
It could be a solid Labour win in 2024 (not a landslide, because.. culture wars) but very solid - say, 350 seats or so.
Yep. The ruling out of a Labour majority I often come across is imo stale thinking.
You may be right, but for Labour to win outright there would need to be an enormous shift in popular opinion.
To get to 350 seats, Labour would need to make 147 gains. Labour target number 147 is Telford, with a Con Maj of almost 11,000, and 25 of the seats that are available on lower swings than that are held by the SNP.
If Labour can't make any gains from the SNP then Telford becomes the target to reach 325; 350 seats comes with Elmet and Rothwell, held with a Con Maj of over 17,000 and substantially safer than a number of other targets (e.g. Basingstoke, Labour target no.148) which didn't fall to the party even in 1997. For every seat that's more vulnerable to Labour that the Tories manage to hold, they need to take something even safer further down their target list to get to a majority on their own, as well as managing not to lose any of their own marginals of course.
Even this far out from the next election, it seems likely that Labour is going to need, at a minimum, the backing of the SNP bloc to win a vote of confidence in the HoC. Unless Scotland has had another independence vote and departed by 2024, in which case things get a bit easier for Labour. To win a bare majority, Starmer then "only" needs to hold everything he's got and capture every target up to and including Stevenage - though even that would require a swing to Labour marginally in excess of that achieved under Tony Blair in 1997.
Quite apart from not wanting to deal with the problem himself, that's actually another good reason (from the point of view of party political advantage at least) for Johnson to ignore any future demands for another Scottish independence referendum. Given current circumstances, keeping Scotland onboard makes life a lot more complicated for Labour: the Tories can obviously reach a Commons majority without it, Labour almost certainly can't, with all the attendant complications for Starmer's relationship with many English voters.
The media keeps saying he’s the de facto PM. But he’s not. He’s an influential adviser but not the PM.
What distinguishes the PM from any other minister?
He sets the agenda. That's Cummings, no BoZo.
He can hire and fire ministers. That's Cummings, no BoZo.
That's why people call him the de facto PM. He exercises the functions of the role.
That’s what the media says
No one knows what happens behind closed doors
And there is an obsession with Cummings due to brexit, but if the reports are to be believed he forced lockdown before the scientists moved on it, and may even have saved thousands of lives
The public enquiry will be fascinating and Cummings role in covid 19
G you have lost the plot supporting these shysters. Cummings supported nothing but himself and more likely has caused thousands of deaths. At best he is an arrogant little sh*t with regards only for himself.
You are putting your own unique anti everyone but SNP narrative into this Malc and ignoring that there is a growing belief Cummings intervened bringing lockdown forward and ironically with the approval of Nicola no less
I simply do not know enough about Cummings and his beliefs but I absolutely do believe he should have resigned over his trip to Durham
With all due respect Big G there’s no evidence at all, in either direction, on what Cummings may or may not have pushed for. There’s no point even discussing it until an enquiry because at the moment it’s all mere rumour and conjecture.
Didn't stop a furore here and in the press when it was reported he was holding back a lockdown. Then it was absolutely the moment to discuss it.
I would not be surprised to see crossover sooner rather than later.
It is clear most people are still very worried by covid and nearly half the country have been financially protected by employment in the public sector or furloughed
Boris has paid a big price for Cummings and his brand has taken a hit
Whether this matters is not clear and the focus over the next few months will be on the economy, help for those suffering, and if covid can be contained
Also Boris will be in place at the end of the year and responsible for the deal or no deal outcome of brexit
The next election is 4 years away and many variable factors will determine just how that election pans out but I am far less worried now Corbyn is history
How might a Biden presidency affect Johnson administration (where have I heard THAT before?) My sense is that election of Bill Clinton was not fatal to John Major, but it didn't do him any favors AND it gave Tony Blair an obvious role model.
Keir Stumer sorta comes across like a Joe Biden with youthful vigor - somewhat like Joe himself back when he was borking Bork. Granted without Biden's working-class cred, but also without a propensity for foot-in-mouth disease.
“...without Biden's working-class cred...”
Huh?
A quick glance at Keith Starmer’s early life clearly indicates that he is most certainly “working class” (which was still a thing in England in the 1960s).
He was obviously very bright, and worked his way towards a good career.
Having cred with the working class has little to do with whether said person is or was working class themselves. People would laugh if Boris claimed to speak for the working class but the working class voters wouldnt. And Corbyn was a middle class guy whod spent his career at impotent protests but people thought he was the greatest labour leader ever.
So I think Starmers upbringing is entirely irrelevant to his appeal and cred. He'll do better with the working class because of time, that he's normal and competent.
To shoot your final point down in flames, can I introduce Boris Johnson? Neither normal, nor competent but loved by the working classes.
Is he "loved by the working classes"?
I am not convinced. More seen as a way to further Brexity wet dreams by a certain subsection. In the end they will tar and feather him for betrayal.
I mix with a variet of people, those who in the past I would have had as Wilsonian Labourites, won't have a bad word said for Johnson.
Conversely those I would have had down as Heathite Tories can't bear Johnson.
I won’t have a bad word said against Johnson.
Anything less than a whole paragraph does him less than justice.
The 'B' streamers from Ledbury Grammar School love the guy!
I’m not in touch with many people from Newent now. Insofar as I am, they seem to be more liberal than the rest of the Forest is these days.
I suspect my earlier statement would have been forever true.
When I arrived from the industrial West Midlands, where the children of workers from the car industry were politically left wing the children of farm labourers on poverty wages were dyed in the wool Tories. I put it down to the feudal system.
Ok. Some junior guy in the government made a mistake and posted a misleading/incorrect tweet.
Within 10 minutes it was deleted.
Utterly unimportant in the scheme of things.
Who benefits from Rentoul giving it much wider circulation? A quick smirk for opponents of the government. And the risk that someone sees the wrong advise and suffers as a result.
I would not be surprised to see crossover sooner rather than later.
It is clear most people are still very worried by covid and nearly half the country have been financially protected by employment in the public sector or furloughed
Boris has paid a big price for Cummings and his brand has taken a hit
Whether this matters is not clear and the focus over the next few months will be on the economy, help for those suffering, and if covid can be contained
Also Boris will be in place at the end of the year and responsible for the deal or no deal outcome of brexit
The next election is 4 years away and many variable factors will determine just how that election pans out but I am far less worried now Corbyn is history
How might a Biden presidency affect Johnson administration (where have I heard THAT before?) My sense is that election of Bill Clinton was not fatal to John Major, but it didn't do him any favors AND it gave Tony Blair an obvious role model.
Keir Stumer sorta comes across like a Joe Biden with youthful vigor - somewhat like Joe himself back when he was borking Bork. Granted without Biden's working-class cred, but also without a propensity for foot-in-mouth disease.
“...without Biden's working-class cred...”
Huh?
A quick glance at Keith Starmer’s early life clearly indicates that he is most certainly “working class” (which was still a thing in England in the 1960s).
He was obviously very bright, and worked his way towards a good career.
Having cred with the working class has little to do with whether said person is or was working class themselves. People would laugh if Boris claimed to speak for the working class but the working class voters wouldnt. And Corbyn was a middle class guy whod spent his career at impotent protests but people thought he was the greatest labour leader ever.
So I think Starmers upbringing is entirely irrelevant to his appeal and cred. He'll do better with the working class because of time, that he's normal and competent.
To shoot your final point down in flames, can I introduce Boris Johnson? Neither normal, nor competent but loved by the working classes.
Is he "loved by the working classes"?
I am not convinced. More seen as a way to further Brexity wet dreams by a certain subsection. In the end they will tar and feather him for betrayal.
I mix with a variet of people, those who in the past I would have had as Wilsonian Labourites, won't have a bad word said for Johnson.
Conversely those I would have had down as Heathite Tories can't bear Johnson.
I won’t have a bad word said against Johnson.
Anything less than a whole paragraph does him less than justice.
The problem with juries and fraud trials is that the cases are exceedingly long.
We've seen in the past that randomly selecting 12 people for a 3 year trial destroyed their lives so that can't be done again. So how else do you keep juries in complex cases...
I've said before that the Cummings episode ran very deep. People still make jokes about it, and now there are jokes about PM Johnson. And they're not sympathetic jokes, either.
The whole Cummings situation - not just the Durham incident - is a structural disadvantage for the government. We keep hearing how he is the de facto PM. But nobody voted for him. In our political system, if you want that kind of political power you should stand for office. People don't like it.
That’s the thing.
The media keeps saying he’s the de facto PM. But he’s not. He’s an influential adviser but not the PM.
Surely the perception is what counts and the whole Cummings affair has cemented the notion that he his the one actually running things. I don't believe it is very wide of the mark either.
Johnson was born into privilege and has sailed through life with a combination of charm, lies, waffle and blagging. He has never done a hard day's work hard in his life. He's just the front man.
Agree with David's post, which I think is fantastic and very astute.
It's possible Labour forms the next Government - but not as a majority. If the Tories lose a total of around 65 seats or more, they will find it extremely difficult to form a Government, even if they have the most seats.
With the Tories on 300 seats, Labour on 267, it would be a mess of a Parliament.
SNP would likely take most Scottish seats, so that puts Labour/SNP up to probably 317, Lib Dems take a few and there's a technical majority of anti-Tory votes. In this scenario, I don't feel there would be a formal arrangement, I suspect Labour would dare the other parties to vote their policies down.
Of course the best thing for Labour is to get the Lib Dems on more seats. The less reliant on SNP seats, the better - and the easier it is for the Tory majority to tumble with less Labour gains.
Ergo, they need some kind of pact, even if unofficial.
After 10 years in opposition it would be normal for Labour to start to see poll leads by now. Labour certainly had a few in 1989 for example as did the Tories in 2007.
However while the polls are much closer now under Starmer than they were under Corbyn last year as Remainers who disliked Corbyn and voted LD in 2019 have gone back to Labour, the Tory vote remains virtually unchanged from the last general election.
Unless Tory voters start to move to Labour or the LDs then the Tories will remain ahead. Perhaps the likeliest way that would occur is if we go to WTO terms Brexit and some Tory Remainers switch to the opposition parties (though of course if Boris extended the transition period then some Tory Leavers could move back to the Brexit Party which might also put Labour ahead with no increase in its voteshare)
Ok. Some junior guy in the government made a mistake and posted a misleading/incorrect tweet.
Within 10 minutes it was deleted.
Utterly unimportant in the scheme of things.
Who benefits from Rentoul giving it much wider circulation? A quick smirk for opponents of the government. And the risk that someone sees the wrong advise and suffers as a result.
That’s a really poor choice by Rentoul
I think it's more his ongoing interest in use of English. And mistakes people make.
President of the Generalitat, Quim Torra, has announced that the Segrià region is confined due to the "considerable increase" in infections in Lleida. "It was a difficult decision," said Torra at a press conference, where he recommended the use of masks and called for "not" to relax. Torra confines more than 200,000 people in the Lleida region of Segrià
I would not be surprised to see crossover sooner rather than later.
It is clear most people are still very worried by covid and nearly half the country have been financially protected by employment in the public sector or furloughed
Boris has paid a big price for Cummings and his brand has taken a hit
Whether this matters is not clear and the focus over the next few months will be on the economy, help for those suffering, and if covid can be contained
Also Boris will be in place at the end of the year and responsible for the deal or no deal outcome of brexit
The next election is 4 years away and many variable factors will determine just how that election pans out but I am far less worried now Corbyn is history
How might a Biden presidency affect Johnson administration (where have I heard THAT before?) My sense is that election of Bill Clinton was not fatal to John Major, but it didn't do him any favors AND it gave Tony Blair an obvious role model.
Keir Stumer sorta comes across like a Joe Biden with youthful vigor - somewhat like Joe himself back when he was borking Bork. Granted without Biden's working-class cred, but also without a propensity for foot-in-mouth disease.
“...without Biden's working-class cred...”
Huh?
A quick glance at Keith Starmer’s early life clearly indicates that he is most certainly “working class” (which was still a thing in England in the 1960s).
He was obviously very bright, and worked his way towards a good career.
Having cred with the working class has little to do with whether said person is or was working class themselves. People would laugh if Boris claimed to speak for the working class but the working class voters wouldnt. And Corbyn was a middle class guy whod spent his career at impotent protests but people thought he was the greatest labour leader ever.
So I think Starmers upbringing is entirely irrelevant to his appeal and cred. He'll do better with the working class because of time, that he's normal and competent.
To shoot your final point down in flames, can I introduce Boris Johnson? Neither normal, nor competent but loved by the working classes.
Is he "loved by the working classes"?
I am not convinced. More seen as a way to further Brexity wet dreams by a certain subsection. In the end they will tar and feather him for betrayal.
I mix with a variet of people, those who in the past I would have had as Wilsonian Labourites, won't have a bad word said for Johnson.
Conversely those I would have had down as Heathite Tories can't bear Johnson.
I won’t have a bad word said against Johnson.
Anything less than a whole paragraph does him less than justice.
The 'B' streamers from Ledbury Grammar School love the guy!
I’m not in touch with many people from Newent now. Insofar as I am, they seem to be more liberal than the rest of the Forest is these days.
I suspect my earlier statement would have been forever true.
When I arrived from the industrial West Midlands, where the children of workers from the car industry were politically left wing the children of farm labourers on poverty wages were dyed in the wool Tories. I put it down to the feudal system.
FAO Ydoethur
I should have written "in Ledbury" after "farm labourers". Why no edit button on the mobile app?
I would not be surprised to see crossover sooner rather than later.
It is clear most people are still very worried by covid and nearly half the country have been financially protected by employment in the public sector or furloughed
Boris has paid a big price for Cummings and his brand has taken a hit
Whether this matters is not clear and the focus over the next few months will be on the economy, help for those suffering, and if covid can be contained
Also Boris will be in place at the end of the year and responsible for the deal or no deal outcome of brexit
The next election is 4 years away and many variable factors will determine just how that election pans out but I am far less worried now Corbyn is history
How might a Biden presidency affect Johnson administration (where have I heard THAT before?) My sense is that election of Bill Clinton was not fatal to John Major, but it didn't do him any favors AND it gave Tony Blair an obvious role model.
Keir Stumer sorta comes across like a Joe Biden with youthful vigor - somewhat like Joe himself back when he was borking Bork. Granted without Biden's working-class cred, but also without a propensity for foot-in-mouth disease.
“...without Biden's working-class cred...”
Huh?
A quick glance at Keith Starmer’s early life clearly indicates that he is most certainly “working class” (which was still a thing in England in the 1960s).
He was obviously very bright, and worked his way towards a good career.
Having cred with the working class has little to do with whether said person is or was working class themselves. People would laugh if Boris claimed to speak for the working class but the working class voters wouldnt. And Corbyn was a middle class guy whod spent his career at impotent protests but people thought he was the greatest labour leader ever.
So I think Starmers upbringing is entirely irrelevant to his appeal and cred. He'll do better with the working class because of time, that he's normal and competent.
To shoot your final point down in flames, can I introduce Boris Johnson? Neither normal, nor competent but loved by the working classes.
Working class men, maybe. W/c women maybe not so much.
Personally, I think there's some mileage in this for him. The reaction in the USA has been far worse than here.
This is pure Stephen Miller, and it will go down well with his core but it will not get him the suburban college educated whites that are slipping away from him.
They are gone. It's the white male non-college he needs to hold onto in massive numbers (and these are slipping).
I think there's so much confirmation bias on Trump on this site.
Doesn't help that one or two posters have taken it upon themselves to attack anyone who suggests otherwise (you know who you are) too.
This is a betting site.
Agreed, apparently saying that Trump might not lose is the same as saying you support him to some posters.
Of course Trump might not lose. You have to back up that statement with a path for him to not lose though. Going "aaaah, 2016 you know" isn't an argument.
I give it a couple of months, and I think Jenrick and corruption will be major factors.
Corruption, self-interest, incompetence, bad economy, "time for a change".. decent Labour leader etc.
Remind you of something?
It could be a solid Labour win in 2024 (not a landslide, because.. culture wars) but very solid - say, 350 seats or so.
Yep. The ruling out of a Labour majority I often come across is imo stale thinking.
You may be right, but for Labour to win outright there would need to be an enormous shift in popular opinion.
To get to 350 seats, Labour would need to make 147 gains. Labour target number 147 is Telford, with a Con Maj of almost 11,000, and 25 of the seats that are available on lower swings than that are held by the SNP.
If Labour can't make any gains from the SNP then Telford becomes the target to reach 325; 350 seats comes with Elmet and Rothwell, held with a Con Maj of over 17,000 and substantially safer than a number of other targets (e.g. Basingstoke, Labour target no.148) which didn't fall to the party even in 1997. For every seat that's more vulnerable to Labour that the Tories manage to hold, they need to take something even safer further down their target list to get to a majority on their own, as well as managing not to lose any of their own marginals of course.
Even this far out from the next election, it seems likely that Labour is going to need, at a minimum, the backing of the SNP bloc to win a vote of confidence in the HoC. Unless Scotland has had another independence vote and departed by 2024, in which case things get a bit easier for Labour. To win a bare majority, Starmer then "only" needs to hold everything he's got and capture every target up to and including Stevenage - though even that would require a swing to Labour marginally in excess of that achieved under Tony Blair in 1997.
Quite apart from not wanting to deal with the problem himself, that's actually another good reason (from the point of view of party political advantage at least) for Johnson to ignore any future demands for another Scottish independence referendum. Given current circumstances, keeping Scotland onboard makes life a lot more complicated for Labour: the Tories can obviously reach a Commons majority without it, Labour almost certainly can't, with all the attendant complications for Starmer's relationship with many English voters.
Is there any serious alternative to this set of assumptions?
1) Labour cannot win in England. 2) They can only hope for a majority with the support of SNP, which must involve a 2nd ref which the SNP will probably win. 3) Following which there are no Scottish seats at Westminster, and we return to the position where Labour cannot win in England and there is nowhere else for Labour to turn to for help.
And north of the border, the demise of the Ruth Davidson Party is almost complete: SLab are within MoE (2 points) of retaking second place from the SCons:
Ok. Some junior guy in the government made a mistake and posted a misleading/incorrect tweet.
Within 10 minutes it was deleted.
Utterly unimportant in the scheme of things.
Who benefits from Rentoul giving it much wider circulation? A quick smirk for opponents of the government. And the risk that someone sees the wrong advise and suffers as a result.
That’s a really poor choice by Rentoul
Because large sections of the media are still trying to fight the Brexit wars, and think that sarcastic Tweeting is a valid substitute for debate.
Agree with David's post, which I think is fantastic and very astute.
It's possible Labour forms the next Government - but not as a majority. If the Tories lose a total of around 65 seats or more, they will find it extremely difficult to form a Government, even if they have the most seats.
With the Tories on 300 seats, Labour on 267, it would be a mess of a Parliament.
SNP would likely take most Scottish seats, so that puts Labour/SNP up to probably 317, Lib Dems take a few and there's a technical majority of anti-Tory votes. In this scenario, I don't feel there would be a formal arrangement, I suspect Labour would dare the other parties to vote their policies down.
Of course the best thing for Labour is to get the Lib Dems on more seats. The less reliant on SNP seats, the better - and the easier it is for the Tory majority to tumble with less Labour gains.
Ergo, they need some kind of pact, even if unofficial.
The problems start when they table a motion for a Scottish independence referendum and it gets voted down by a unionist majority and the SNP stop playing nicely.
There may be an anti-tory majority in the next parliament, but it doesn't mean the resulting parties in the majority will be able to pay nicely for more than about 5 minutes. The agendas of the parties would be incompatible.
One of the problems facing European countries A total of 37 migrants with the Covid-19 coronavirus who arrived in Fuerteventura in the last weeks after the boats on their way to the archipelago were intercepted on the high seas continue in isolation in a ship in Puerto del Rosario. As reported by the Canary Islands authorities, since the beginning of the health crisis, 89 cases of coronavirus have been detected on the island, of which 48 people have already been discharged.
After 10 years in opposition it would be normal for Labour to start to see poll leads by now. Labour certainly had a few in 1989 for example as did the Tories in 2007.
However while the polls are much closer now under Starmer than they were under Corbyn last year as Remainers who disliked Corbyn and voted LD in 2019 have gone back to Labour, the Tory vote remains virtually unchanged from the last general election.
Unless Tory voters start to move to Labour or the LDs then the Tories will remain ahead. Perhaps the likeliest way that would occur is if we go to WTO terms Brexit and some Tory Remainers switch to the opposition parties (though of course if Boris extended the transition period then some Tory Leavers could move back to the Brexit Party which might also put Labour ahead with no increase in its voteshare)
Have you any idea how the forthcoming economic crash will impact on incumbent governments? I am not sure you will like what you see.
I give it a couple of months, and I think Jenrick and corruption will be major factors.
Corruption, self-interest, incompetence, bad economy, "time for a change".. decent Labour leader etc.
Remind you of something?
It could be a solid Labour win in 2024 (not a landslide, because.. culture wars) but very solid - say, 350 seats or so.
Yep. The ruling out of a Labour majority I often come across is imo stale thinking.
You may be right, but for Labour to win outright there would need to be an enormous shift in popular opinion.
To get to 350 seats, Labour would need to make 147 gains. Labour target number 147 is Telford, with a Con Maj of almost 11,000, and 25 of the seats that are available on lower swings than that are held by the SNP.
If Labour can't make any gains from the SNP then Telford becomes the target to reach 325; 350 seats comes with Elmet and Rothwell, held with a Con Maj of over 17,000 and substantially safer than a number of other targets (e.g. Basingstoke, Labour target no.148) which didn't fall to the party even in 1997. For every seat that's more vulnerable to Labour that the Tories manage to hold, they need to take something even safer further down their target list to get to a majority on their own, as well as managing not to lose any of their own marginals of course.
Even this far out from the next election, it seems likely that Labour is going to need, at a minimum, the backing of the SNP bloc to win a vote of confidence in the HoC. Unless Scotland has had another independence vote and departed by 2024, in which case things get a bit easier for Labour. To win a bare majority, Starmer then "only" needs to hold everything he's got and capture every target up to and including Stevenage - though even that would require a swing to Labour marginally in excess of that achieved under Tony Blair in 1997.
Quite apart from not wanting to deal with the problem himself, that's actually another good reason (from the point of view of party political advantage at least) for Johnson to ignore any future demands for another Scottish independence referendum. Given current circumstances, keeping Scotland onboard makes life a lot more complicated for Labour: the Tories can obviously reach a Commons majority without it, Labour almost certainly can't, with all the attendant complications for Starmer's relationship with many English voters.
Is there any serious alternative to this set of assumptions?
1) Labour cannot win in England. 2) They can only hope for a majority with the support of SNP, which must involve a 2nd ref which the SNP will probably win. 3) Following which there are no Scottish seats at Westminster, and we return to the position where Labour cannot win in England and there is nowhere else for Labour to turn to for help.
I would not be surprised to see crossover sooner rather than later.
It is clear most people are still very worried by covid and nearly half the country have been financially protected by employment in the public sector or furloughed
Boris has paid a big price for Cummings and his brand has taken a hit
Whether this matters is not clear and the focus over the next few months will be on the economy, help for those suffering, and if covid can be contained
Also Boris will be in place at the end of the year and responsible for the deal or no deal outcome of brexit
The next election is 4 years away and many variable factors will determine just how that election pans out but I am far less worried now Corbyn is history
How might a Biden presidency affect Johnson administration (where have I heard THAT before?) My sense is that election of Bill Clinton was not fatal to John Major, but it didn't do him any favors AND it gave Tony Blair an obvious role model.
Keir Stumer sorta comes across like a Joe Biden with youthful vigor - somewhat like Joe himself back when he was borking Bork. Granted without Biden's working-class cred, but also without a propensity for foot-in-mouth disease.
It will be too late to effect brexit but I would hope it would help to restore relationships, not just here in the UK but worldwide after the disaster that is Trump
Hopefully the US will become a less confrontational country and to be honest any future trade deal would no doubt be based on firmer grounds than anything with Trump
As for Starmer he is far more acceptable than Corbyn, but I very much doubt he will be up against Boris. I hope 2021 will see Boris step away as he will have concluded Brexit and I doubt he is in it for the longhaul anyway
His self-delusion about being the new Churchill would tend to indicate otherwise.
Yes, I wouldnt expect the polls to change much before the end of the year.
For most people it doesn't really feel that Brexit is done. There has been no discernable change yet, so Johnson keeps that "Get Brexit Done" vote. That all changes in January. Where those votes go then will be interesting, but I expect them to fade.The economic hit and misery will be in full force by then too. Sub 30% Tory vote very possible by then.
In Scotland I can see the Tories drifting back to core vote levels: 15 to 18 percent.
May 2021 could be a bloodbath for the hapless Jack and Carlaw. More importantly for the long term I can see the SCons taking a total pounding at the May Scottish local elections, where they have strong representation. That’ll totally cripple their key activists and local media operations.
38% of Scots voted Leave, the Tories under Carlaw got 25% last year, still their second highest vote in Scotland since 1992.
Their core vote is hardline Unionist and pro Brexit, it will not fall below 20%
I am very keen not to lose money betting on the Presidential election again. Especially after I had done so welling backing trump to win the nomination in 2016.
I want to hear solid reasons as to why Trump can win beyond "the polls are wrong" without any evidence as to why the polls are wrong.
Every incidence of left wingers doing something in America is immediatly greeted with the notion that it playing I to his hands, every poll showing that actually the action is popular with the American public is dismissed.
The problem with juries and fraud trials is that the cases are exceedingly long.
We've seen in the past that randomly selecting 12 people for a 3 year trial destroyed their lives so that can't be done again. So how else do you keep juries in complex cases...
I wonder if jury trials wouldn't work better if you just recorded the whole thing and let them watch it back edited. There must be a lot of their time taken up waiting for stuff or sitting through parts that they don't need to consider.
One of the problems facing European countries A total of 37 migrants with the Covid-19 coronavirus who arrived in Fuerteventura in the last weeks after the boats on their way to the archipelago were intercepted on the high seas continue in isolation in a ship in Puerto del Rosario. As reported by the Canary Islands authorities, since the beginning of the health crisis, 89 cases of coronavirus have been detected on the island, of which 48 people have already been discharged.
The solution is and has always been to turn the boats back to wherever they came from. Refuse them entry into Europe and eventually the pull factor stops.
Comments
That's not what I see from this diagram.
Nearly all clubs are now owned by those with little or no local connections. I suppose we have to sell something to finance the trade deficit.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53284607
Personally, I think there's some mileage in this for him. The reaction in the USA has been far worse than here.
In short he is not answerable like the PM (in theory at least) is, and carries none of the responsibilities of the post.
However, what if history shows he intervened to bring lockdown forward and in the process saved thousands of lives and many in Scotland
I feel it in my bones: Boris is incompetent and will take the Tory brand down with him, whilst Starmer knows what he's doing.
This article shows poll-leads mean jack. They can be massive, and then evaporate in weeks - and the reverse can happen too.
But, I expect clear Labour leads in 2021 once Brexit has taken its final form, the economy continues to struggle to recover and the Government struggles to deliver its "levelling up" projects.
I am not convinced. More seen as a way to further Brexity wet dreams by a certain subsection. In the end they will tar and feather him for betrayal.
Remind you of something?
It could be a solid Labour win in 2024 (not a landslide, because.. culture wars) but very solid - say, 350 seats or so.
How long it will survive the reality of his ‘leadership’ is an altogether different question.
I am 44 and currently working for a pretty decent wage but in quite a niche occupation (basically I'm very useful where I am but feel my transferable skills are rather limited.) As long as I can stay put where I am I'll be fine, but if I'm made redundant I'm afraid I'll end up slung on the scrapheap for good. I suspect that I'm far from alone.
Government is probably going to have to address a major structural unemployment problem going forward, and if the private sector won't solve it through creating an awful lot of new jobs (and I have my doubts that it can do so on the vast scale required,) then that will mean the state having to pay people to do something through creating make work schemes, or pay them to do nothing through benefits that are sufficient to live on, or tolerate widespread poverty.
Johnson's "Benny Hill" persona works well in the wider world and Johnson knows how to work his dog whistle masterfully.
I predict that the whole 'jolly gosh', 'crikey' Jennings and Derbyshire persona will have become thoroughly grating and a total turnoff well before 2024. The British public are not stupid and they can see when when someone isn't up to the job.
To put that in context, only one party has gained that many seats at a single election since the Second World War - Tony Blair in 1997, who gained 145.
It has only happened twice more in the age of universal suffrage - in 1931, when the Conservatives gained 210 seats, and 1945 (during the war but very near the end of it) when Labour gained 239 seats.
That is not to say it is impossible. This government is already a shambles and the shit has yet to really hit the fan. Starmer, meanwhile, is exuding calm competence, moderation and dignity.
It is however going to be bloody difficult and Starmer would be wise not to raise any expectations he will struggle to meet.
We cannot borrow forever
But (reluctantly) I must assume from the evidence available to me that whilst being a considerable distance away from the genius he clearly considers himself to be, he surely inhabits a piece of terrain somewhere between that and complete and utter pillock.
Johnson's 'administration' will be deeply, deeply unpopular by next summer imho.
Nah, I’m still sticking with ‘complete and utter pillock.’
(Amusingly, autocorrect turned that into ‘pollock.’ Mind you it has been very shit recently. It keeps turning capital letters into indefinite articles.)
It will happen. The polls are all over the place these days. The Tories were finished just over a year ago, and almost came last in the European Parliament elections, and then they near enough won a landslide.
The old rules don't apply anymore. You have to look for the zeitgeist.
And when it rains, it will pour.
The real problem is of course that we have unfortunately come to a time when there are no good solutions - only bad ones and worse ones.
If you don't think moderate rational independents also don't worry about the lunacy of far-left mobs, then you're not thinking hard enough.
Foredeck tugging obsequience to the public school boys is still a thing in the English working classes., however much I find it incomprehensible.
1) We don’t need more chaos or infections
2) In the long run, it would be better for us if Johnson were out of Downing Street.
Conversely those I would have had down as Heathite Tories can't bear Johnson. I can't disagree with either statement.
Anything less than a whole paragraph does him less than justice.
He'll struggle to survive a consequent second wave that other european countries don't have. (although we shouldn't underestimate what a limpet he will be in office).
We both think those days are returning. The structural changes in the economy in the next couple of years are that severe.
The king has always had “evil counsellors”. I’m reading a great book about the Noble Revolt against Charles I* and the primary attack was against on Stafford and Laud.
In an age when criticising the King meant execution for treason that made sense. Today if you don’t like what the government does blame Boris. It doesn’t matter who’s advice he takes. Boris is accountable.
* It wasn’t the simple Parliament vs the king story people believe. The Rich family - Warwick, Essex, Holland and their allies the Russells (Bedford) - were the prime movers. Pym etc were all part of their entourage.
Doesn't help that one or two posters have taken it upon themselves to attack anyone who suggests otherwise (you know who you are) too.
This is a betting site.
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-berlin-metro-station-to-be-renamed-after-pushback-over-racist-term/a-54043734
A large chunk of the Republican vote vote Republican despite the racism. Focus groups show that you gather a bunch of suburban 2016 Trump voters and ask them questions about how he has done they will defend him on everything expect when it comes to race relations at which point they will bury him.
Trump/Miller is poisoning the well.
That’s just crappy journalism. They really need to up their standards. Washington, Roosevelt, Huq (?spelling), Father Serra - none of them were Confederates.
Unless you are being very generous with your use of the word “targeting”
There was a philosopher who said he had often regretted what he had said but had never regretted being silent. While that’s a rather crude oversimplification - if only one of those officers standing next to George Floyd had protested, or one of Weinstein’s or Epstein’s associates blown the whistle - Starmer’s course isn’t necessarily a foolish one. He needs to be ready and to be heeded when the time is right, and as an election is almost certainly a long way off, that isn’t now.
To get to 350 seats, Labour would need to make 147 gains. Labour target number 147 is Telford, with a Con Maj of almost 11,000, and 25 of the seats that are available on lower swings than that are held by the SNP.
If Labour can't make any gains from the SNP then Telford becomes the target to reach 325; 350 seats comes with Elmet and Rothwell, held with a Con Maj of over 17,000 and substantially safer than a number of other targets (e.g. Basingstoke, Labour target no.148) which didn't fall to the party even in 1997. For every seat that's more vulnerable to Labour that the Tories manage to hold, they need to take something even safer further down their target list to get to a majority on their own, as well as managing not to lose any of their own marginals of course.
Even this far out from the next election, it seems likely that Labour is going to need, at a minimum, the backing of the SNP bloc to win a vote of confidence in the HoC. Unless Scotland has had another independence vote and departed by 2024, in which case things get a bit easier for Labour. To win a bare majority, Starmer then "only" needs to hold everything he's got and capture every target up to and including Stevenage - though even that would require a swing to Labour marginally in excess of that achieved under Tony Blair in 1997.
Quite apart from not wanting to deal with the problem himself, that's actually another good reason (from the point of view of party political advantage at least) for Johnson to ignore any future demands for another Scottish independence referendum. Given current circumstances, keeping Scotland onboard makes life a lot more complicated for Labour: the Tories can obviously reach a Commons majority without it, Labour almost certainly can't, with all the attendant complications for Starmer's relationship with many English voters.
When I arrived from the industrial West Midlands, where the children of workers from the car industry were politically left wing the children of farm labourers on poverty wages were dyed in the wool Tories. I put it down to the feudal system.
Within 10 minutes it was deleted.
Utterly unimportant in the scheme of things.
Who benefits from Rentoul giving it much wider circulation? A quick smirk for opponents of the government. And the risk that someone sees the wrong advise and suffers as a result.
That’s a really poor choice by Rentoul
We've seen in the past that randomly selecting 12 people for a 3 year trial destroyed their lives so that can't be done again. So how else do you keep juries in complex cases...
Johnson was born into privilege and has sailed through life with a combination of charm, lies, waffle and blagging. He has never done a hard day's work hard in his life. He's just the front man.
It's possible Labour forms the next Government - but not as a majority. If the Tories lose a total of around 65 seats or more, they will find it extremely difficult to form a Government, even if they have the most seats.
According to, http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour, a 5.63% swing would be needed for that to happen.
With the Tories on 300 seats, Labour on 267, it would be a mess of a Parliament.
SNP would likely take most Scottish seats, so that puts Labour/SNP up to probably 317, Lib Dems take a few and there's a technical majority of anti-Tory votes. In this scenario, I don't feel there would be a formal arrangement, I suspect Labour would dare the other parties to vote their policies down.
Of course the best thing for Labour is to get the Lib Dems on more seats. The less reliant on SNP seats, the better - and the easier it is for the Tory majority to tumble with less Labour gains.
Ergo, they need some kind of pact, even if unofficial.
However while the polls are much closer now under Starmer than they were under Corbyn last year as Remainers who disliked Corbyn and voted LD in 2019 have gone back to Labour, the Tory vote remains virtually unchanged from the last general election.
Unless Tory voters start to move to Labour or the LDs then the Tories will remain ahead. Perhaps the likeliest way that would occur is if we go to WTO terms Brexit and some Tory Remainers switch to the opposition parties (though of course if Boris extended the transition period then some Tory Leavers could move back to the Brexit Party which might also put Labour ahead with no increase in its voteshare)
I should have written "in Ledbury" after "farm labourers". Why no edit button on the mobile app?
Good morning.
1) Labour cannot win in England.
2) They can only hope for a majority with the support of SNP, which must involve a 2nd ref which the SNP will probably win.
3) Following which there are no Scottish seats at Westminster, and we return to the position where Labour cannot win in England and there is nowhere else for Labour to turn to for help.
There may be an anti-tory majority in the next parliament, but it doesn't mean the resulting parties in the majority will be able to pay nicely for more than about 5 minutes. The agendas of the parties would be incompatible.
A total of 37 migrants with the Covid-19 coronavirus who arrived in Fuerteventura in the last weeks after the boats on their way to the archipelago were intercepted on the high seas continue in isolation in a ship in Puerto del Rosario. As reported by the Canary Islands authorities, since the beginning of the health crisis, 89 cases of coronavirus have been detected on the island, of which 48 people have already been discharged.
Their core vote is hardline Unionist and pro Brexit, it will not fall below 20%
I want to hear solid reasons as to why Trump can win beyond "the polls are wrong" without any evidence as to why the polls are wrong.
Every incidence of left wingers doing something in America is immediatly greeted with the notion that it playing I to his hands, every poll showing that actually the action is popular with the American public is dismissed.