politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay is becoming big problem for the Johnson/Cummings regime
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Logorrheic blogger Dominic Cummings ought to read this interesting essay on what makes DARPA work.
https://benjaminreinhardt.com/wddw
...DARPA’s aversion to people with a web presence may be how they avoid asymmetric career risk. According to a former PM, DARPA avoids hiring people with a significant web presence. In the 21st century, that’s remarkable and specific enough that it is worth digging into. People with a strong web presence tend to be focused on playing status games or at least are in a world where they realize that their career depends on public perception of their output....1 -
StagecoachTheuniondivvie said:
There are tons, these are but a few.Richard_Nabavi said:FPT:
The General - Buster KeatonLadyG said:...
One of very few films made before World War 2 which can still be watched with genuine interest and emotional satisfaction.
Others that spring to mind are Metropolis, the Wizard of Oz, Nosferatu. After that examples are hard to find...
A Cottage on Dartmoor - Anthony Asquith
La Grande Illusion - Jean Renoir
La Règle du Jeu - Jean Renoir
Ninotchka - Ernst Lubitsch
A lot more in the 1940s, of course.
All Quiet on the Western Front
Battleship Potemkin
Frankenstein
The Lady Vanishes
The Adventures of Robin Hood
The Women
Things to Come
39 Steps
King Kong
Bringing up Baby0 -
Of course. There are more votes in confirming people's prejudices ("it's all the fault of overzealous regulation") than in sober analysis.CatMan said:Interesting thread. Basically Boris is talking bollocks (again)
https://twitter.com/PeteApps/status/1277912470968045570?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1277912470968045570&ref_url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/jun/30/uk-coronavirus-covid-19-live-news-updates-leicester-local-lockdown-boris-johnson0 -
That's a brilliant quote. I'm going to steal that.rcs1000 said:Whenever I think of Cummings and the civil service, I am reminded of a great Buffett quote:
When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a poor reputation, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact.
And that's because brilliant people often think that changing things is simply a matter of a few reforms here, and changing a few people there. The reality is that there are more than 300,000 civil servants. There will be things done in odd ways for good reasons. And the things will be done long after the odd reasons have been long forgotten (but not, maybe, gone away).
I am also reminded of something Joel Spolksy wrote about rewriting code - and I'm paraphrasing here - old code looks bad, it looks ugly, it looks inefficient, and it always looks like a great idea to throw it away and write it again. But all those ugly hacks in there - they're usually there for a reason. And when you start over, those reasons are forgotten.
I'm a business person. And my mantra is iteration. Get any old shit out as fast as you can. And then have a regular series of small revisions. Every week change something small. Does it make things better? Nope, throw it away and go back to the old way. It work? Great, do more of it. I live by A/B testing not by brilliant planning and brilliant managing. Because nothing is as useful as real world experience. No matter how clever you think you are - and I'm sure Cummings is extremely clever - the real world is still more complex.
Big bang reforms, like with the NHS IT system, are apt to be expensive failures. Set small goals, but have short deadlines. Have a vague general idea about the way you want to go, but get there as a series of 100 small steps, not one giant leap.
Geniuses, though, like not just reform but revolution. Their record is not great.0 -
It is amazing how often Boris suddenly finds himself in the perfect circumstances: twice in London, once at a Ge...Pulpstar said:
1/2 of his opponents were the remain side that fought on (And with constant trickery) to try and stop Brexit way past what the average person thought was reasonable and the other half of the opposition was Jeremy Corbyn and his followers.LadyG said:
It's far too early to judge Johnson. On the plus side, he's obviously better at elections than anyone since Blair. On the down side, he's obviously not good at managing pandemics.
2019 was about as perfect a circumstance you could ever have for the Tories.
Perhaps you could define the perfect circumstance which allowed him to win an apparently unwinnable referendum?0 -
He hasn't promoted any rivals?Nigel_Foremain said:
You are correct in your disparagement of the above -all are middle managers at best. She did, however, attempt to put people into government that were not all "yes men/women", and many, including the worst Foreign Sec in my memory, Boris Johnson, were rivals. Prime Minister Boris Johnson only largely promotes those that are not a threat to him, which is very very weak. No leadership skills.Philip_Thompson said:
No lightweights or sycophants in May's Cabinet?Nigel_Foremain said:
She didn't surround herself with lightweights and sycophants. That in itself indicates more leadership ability than The Clown.Philip_Thompson said:
Even if they do, how many Cabinet Ministers did disastrous May lose before she was forced out?Scott_xP said:Unless any of the poodles in cabinet jump, Cummings will brush this off
So you fully approve of not just Johnson himself, David Davis, Liam Fox, Chris Grayling, Andrea Leadsom etc?
And I assume you approve of those Cabinet Ministers Johnson has that May had like Raab, Patel and Williamson?
He's promoted the man I tipped at 200/1 (250/1 with odds boost) on this site as Next Prime Minister who could be suggested now as a rival.1 -
He's an excellent campaigner.LadyG said:
It is amazing how often Boris suddenly finds himself in the perfect circumstances: twice in London, once at a Ge...Pulpstar said:
1/2 of his opponents were the remain side that fought on (And with constant trickery) to try and stop Brexit way past what the average person thought was reasonable and the other half of the opposition was Jeremy Corbyn and his followers.LadyG said:
It's far too early to judge Johnson. On the plus side, he's obviously better at elections than anyone since Blair. On the down side, he's obviously not good at managing pandemics.
2019 was about as perfect a circumstance you could ever have for the Tories.
Perhaps you could define the perfect circumstance which allowed him to win an apparently unwinnable referendum?
I rate Cummings very very highly too. Still should have gone mind.
The pandemic is a real test of governance and leadership, not campaigning though.0 -
As I pointed out a day or so ago, at least this diplomat help reign in Denmark's historic expansionism and thus prevented an new invasion and re-occupation of the Danelaw.TimT said:What an idiotic post by Jennifer Rankin. Whether the UK government wants a formal intelligence and defence treaty or not with the EU, the issues are being discussed as part of the Brexit process.
I also fail to understand the issue about a diplomat being selected to do the intelligence czar job or the idea that diplomats have no expertise in security and defence. All top diplomats spend the majority of their careers in Chancery jobs. Politics, trade, defence and intelligence are not really separate issues, rather different facets of the same thing. And the JIC always used to be chaired by a diplomat. Not sure if it still is.Scott_xP said:
TimT good to see your handle - but forget if you're in GA or MD? IF the former, how to you make out the Peach State political landscape this year.
Seems like y'all might vote for Uncle Joe AND elect Democrat Jon Ossoff over appointee Kelly Loeffler, the poor little rich girl who got richer thanks to inside information about the Creeping Crud.
Plus you've got not one but TWO potential VP picks for Biden: Stacey Abrams who ran a heck of a race in 2018, and Atlanta mayor Keisha Bottoms - they're both on NYT short.
Your thoughts - if you are indeed Cracker Tim!0 -
Buffett really is very good.rcs1000 said:Whenever I think of Cummings and the civil service, I am reminded of a great Buffett quote:
When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a poor reputation, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact.
And that's because brilliant people often think that changing things is simply a matter of a few reforms here, and changing a few people there. The reality is that there are more than 300,000 civil servants. There will be things done in odd ways for good reasons. And the things will be done long after the odd reasons have been long forgotten (but not, maybe, gone away).
I am also reminded of something Joel Spolksy wrote about rewriting code - and I'm paraphrasing here - old code looks bad, it looks ugly, it looks inefficient, and it always looks like a great idea to throw it away and write it again. But all those ugly hacks in there - they're usually there for a reason. And when you start over, those reasons are forgotten.
I'm a business person. And my mantra is iteration. Get any old shit out as fast as you can. And then have a regular series of small revisions. Every week change something small. Does it make things better? Nope, throw it away and go back to the old way. It work? Great, do more of it. I live by A/B testing not by brilliant planning and brilliant managing. Because nothing is as useful as real world experience. No matter how clever you think you are - and I'm sure Cummings is extremely clever - the real world is still more complex.
Big bang reforms, like with the NHS IT system, are apt to be expensive failures. Set small goals, but have short deadlines. Have a vague general idea about the way you want to go, but get there as a series of 100 small steps, not one giant leap.
Geniuses, though, like not just reform but revolution. Their record is not great.
I predict that Cummings will one day blow up spectacularly.1 -
I read it last night. It was singularly depressing.LadyG said:Theresa May was a catastrophically bad prime minister who nearly got beat by Jeremy bloody Corbyn. No one gives a tinker's feck what she thinks.
Especially on the day when it is revealed that, alone amongst European leaders, she allowed herself to be humiliated and bullied by the appalling Trump. Merkel shrugged him off, despite the abuse.
https://twitter.com/LovedayM/status/1277945412301848578?s=20
That is a truly eye-watering piece of journalism, BTW. Definitely worth a read not just for the Theresa May bits. Tells you exactly how bad Trump has been for America, democracy and the West.
Until very recently I wanted Trump to win a second term. Not because I had any love for the man, but because it was important that it should be him who faced the hangover from some of his economic policies.
Now I know he has to go. Because institutions matter more than people. Better a good system than a great person. And America has a good system. It just needs to reassert itself, and to do that, Trump must go.0 -
Unlike the Remain side, who were paragons of virtue?Scott_xP said:
LieLadyG said:Perhaps you could define the perfect circumstance which allowed him to win an apparently unwinnable referendum?
Blatantly
Repeatedly
Without shame
"Donald Tusk: Brexit could destroy Western political civilisation"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-365156800 -
It must be said that anyone with eyes, particularly in urban areas, has over the past few weeks been increasingly able to see people regarding the matter of coronavirus as closed. Rules have been flouted, huge gatherings gathered, and a potentially deadly sense of licence is in the air. Who can blame people? After all, ever since Dominic Cummings broke lockdown to drive to Durham like an elitist who can’t handle his own childcare, polls have indicated that the scandal had unprecedented cut-through, with one polling firm describing it as being unmatched in its “extraordinary level of penetration”. We have yet to see the full ripple effects of this defining moment, but for so many, something broke with that story. And whatever he achieves with the A15, that may yet turn out to be the organ grinder’s legacy – no matter what his monkey is gibbering today.OnlyLivingBoy said:I predict that Cummings will one day blow up spectacularly.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/30/conservatives-cowboy-builders-boris-johnson0 -
Trump by far the worst world leader in recent history0
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It's a bit of an exaggeration to see 'he' won it, though obviously he helped win it. Cummings was more important in the victory.LadyG said:
It is amazing how often Boris suddenly finds himself in the perfect circumstances: twice in London, once at a Ge...Pulpstar said:
1/2 of his opponents were the remain side that fought on (And with constant trickery) to try and stop Brexit way past what the average person thought was reasonable and the other half of the opposition was Jeremy Corbyn and his followers.LadyG said:
It's far too early to judge Johnson. On the plus side, he's obviously better at elections than anyone since Blair. On the down side, he's obviously not good at managing pandemics.
2019 was about as perfect a circumstance you could ever have for the Tories.
Perhaps you could define the perfect circumstance which allowed him to win an apparently unwinnable referendum?
Still, the answer to your question is that Corbyn and his cabal were on the same side as Boris, so Labour did virtually nothing to campaign for Remain. That was a wholly unexpected circumstance when the referendum was promised. Angela Merkel did her bit as well.1 -
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On the subject of spikes in cases - a scary looking graphics of hotspots was posted in the other thread.
So I looked at the Pillar 1 data. See below. I have coloured any days where more than 5 cases occurred to make them stand out.
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Exactly my feelings. Until recently, I thought a Trump victory (even though I detest him) might be tolerable, because Biden could be worse (as he is demented) and the Democrats are stoking the Woke Warsrcs1000 said:
I read it last night. It was singularly depressing.LadyG said:Theresa May was a catastrophically bad prime minister who nearly got beat by Jeremy bloody Corbyn. No one gives a tinker's feck what she thinks.
Especially on the day when it is revealed that, alone amongst European leaders, she allowed herself to be humiliated and bullied by the appalling Trump. Merkel shrugged him off, despite the abuse.
https://twitter.com/LovedayM/status/1277945412301848578?s=20
That is a truly eye-watering piece of journalism, BTW. Definitely worth a read not just for the Theresa May bits. Tells you exactly how bad Trump has been for America, democracy and the West.
Until very recently I wanted Trump to win a second term. Not because I had any love for the man, but because it was important that it should be him who faced the hangover from some of his economic policies.
Now I know he has to go. Because institutions matter more than people. Better a good system than a great person. And America has a good system. It just needs to reassert itself, and to do that, Trump must go.
Now, like you, I accept he has to go, no ifs no buts. He is not just idiotic and pathetic, he is truly dangerous, for his country, for the West, for peace, for us all.0 -
"Buffett really is very good."
You that right, buddy! However, did NOT know that Jimmy ever sang about corporate management (outside the recording business, that is).
Personally my favs from the Parrothead catalog are "Come Monday", "The Great Filling Station Holdup" and "Margaritaville".0 -
Is that scary? I find it encouraging how most of the early hotspots - like Doncaster - were quickly brought under control.Malmesbury said:On the subject of spikes in cases - a scary looking graphics of hotspots was posted in the other thread.
So I looked at the Pillar 1 data. See below. I have coloured any days where more than 5 cases occurred to make them stand out.0 -
A quick skim around Wiki suggests that Peter Rickets had a fairly solid background in security matters but Darroch, Mark Grant and indeed even Sedwell all seem to have a diplomatic background. I appreciate that some prior experience is less likely to be highlighted than others but on the face of it Frost looks pretty similar.2
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No, the map on the last thread was scary (well, I wasn't, but it was supposed to scare).rcs1000 said:
Is that scary? I find it encouraging how most of the early hotspots - like Doncaster - were quickly brought under control.Malmesbury said:On the subject of spikes in cases - a scary looking graphics of hotspots was posted in the other thread.
So I looked at the Pillar 1 data. See below. I have coloured any days where more than 5 cases occurred to make them stand out.0 -
The whole "Biden is demented" meme is a crock of lukewarm bat pee. Was a joint Putinist-BernieBros project.LadyG said:
Exactly my feelings. Until recently, I thought a Trump victory (even though I detest him) might be tolerable, because Biden could be worse (as he is demented) and the Democrats are stoking the Woke Warsrcs1000 said:
I read it last night. It was singularly depressing.LadyG said:Theresa May was a catastrophically bad prime minister who nearly got beat by Jeremy bloody Corbyn. No one gives a tinker's feck what she thinks.
Especially on the day when it is revealed that, alone amongst European leaders, she allowed herself to be humiliated and bullied by the appalling Trump. Merkel shrugged him off, despite the abuse.
https://twitter.com/LovedayM/status/1277945412301848578?s=20
That is a truly eye-watering piece of journalism, BTW. Definitely worth a read not just for the Theresa May bits. Tells you exactly how bad Trump has been for America, democracy and the West.
Until very recently I wanted Trump to win a second term. Not because I had any love for the man, but because it was important that it should be him who faced the hangover from some of his economic policies.
Now I know he has to go. Because institutions matter more than people. Better a good system than a great person. And America has a good system. It just needs to reassert itself, and to do that, Trump must go.
Now, like you, I accept he has to go, no ifs no buts. He is not just idiotic and pathetic, he is truly dangerous, for his country, for the West, for peace, for us all.0 -
The problem for the EU is that the UK lets anyone in. I could fly from the US to the UK and then straight on to Madrid.CarlottaVance said:
Not that I have Coronavirus.0 -
I particularly like the Isle of Wight, 3 cases in the whole of June and the story was reposted on here as if gospel that there was a spike of cases on the Island.Malmesbury said:On the subject of spikes in cases - a scary looking graphics of hotspots was posted in the other thread.
So I looked at the Pillar 1 data. See below. I have coloured any days where more than 5 cases occurred to make them stand out.0 -
Yes, that's what I think. Boris has now won enough campaigns for us to say he is very good at elections. The best since Blair.Pulpstar said:
He's an excellent campaigner.LadyG said:
It is amazing how often Boris suddenly finds himself in the perfect circumstances: twice in London, once at a Ge...Pulpstar said:
1/2 of his opponents were the remain side that fought on (And with constant trickery) to try and stop Brexit way past what the average person thought was reasonable and the other half of the opposition was Jeremy Corbyn and his followers.LadyG said:
It's far too early to judge Johnson. On the plus side, he's obviously better at elections than anyone since Blair. On the down side, he's obviously not good at managing pandemics.
2019 was about as perfect a circumstance you could ever have for the Tories.
Perhaps you could define the perfect circumstance which allowed him to win an apparently unwinnable referendum?
I rate Cummings very very highly too. Still should have gone mind.
The pandemic is a real test of governance and leadership, not campaigning though.
AS a PM it is too soon to tell. Especially as he faces probably the sternest tests, as a prime minister, since Winston Churchill: he has to steer us through a global pandemic, a great recession, and Brexit, in the next four years.0 -
Did anyone notice how the CEO of Sky and the former Head of the Civil Service were both from County Durham and both had the (not particularly common) surname Darroch. I always wondered if they were related.DavidL said:A quick skim around Wiki suggests that Peter Rickets had a fairly solid background in security matters but Darroch, Mark Grant and indeed even Sedwell all seem to have a diplomatic background. I appreciate that some prior experience is less likely to be highlighted than others but on the face of it Frost looks pretty similar.
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Mr. xP, you give too much praise to Boris Johnson and not enough censure for the pro-EU campaign.
A positive campaign on economics would've swayed enough people. Instead they developed a bus fixation and tried arguing that we don't give Ultramegabucks to the EU, but only Hypermegabucks.
People are there to be persuaded, that's the point of democracy. The fearful approach taken by Remain proved their undoing. Boris Johnson wasn't some sort of incredible pied piper. He was a plus for the Leave campaign, but we should not forget the campaign overall was dreadful.
It's just that Remain managed to be even worse.3 -
As noted upthread, his big relaunch this morning was a campaign speech.LadyG said:Yes, that's what I think. Boris has now won enough campaigns for us to say he is very good at elections. The best since Blair.
AS a PM it is too soon to tell.
It wasn't close to governing.
The jury is in...0 -
Mildly encouraging news from today's NHS England hospital death count.
37 today, of which 12 occurred more than 5 days ago, compared with 46 last Tuesday, of which 5 occurred more than 5 days previously.
Hardly stellar progress, but at least it's not going backwards.0 -
Not if the UK maintains 14 day self quarantine for US arrivals. AIUI the proposal is to keep that in place, except for certain countries - the same list as the EU presumably - who have been clear that we either offer quarantine free access to all, or UK arrivals in the EU would face quarantine.rcs1000 said:
The problem for the EU is that the UK lets anyone in. I could fly from the US to the UK and then straight on to Madrid.CarlottaVance said:
Not that I have Coronavirus.0 -
It's just pillar 1, so there are more cases than that. But Pillar 1 data was used to write the story!NerysHughes said:
I particularly like the Isle of Wight, 3 cases in the whole of June and the story was reposted on here as if gospel that there were a spike of cases on the Island.Malmesbury said:On the subject of spikes in cases - a scary looking graphics of hotspots was posted in the other thread.
So I looked at the Pillar 1 data. See below. I have coloured any days where more than 5 cases occurred to make them stand out.
Isle of Wight is an obvious tell that the story was rubbish - there has been a serious lack of cases. I have a feeling that it got included in the story because of this - https://www.countypress.co.uk/news/18549892.coronavirus-university-research-names-isle-wight-potential-second-wave-hotspot which is saying, essentially, that *if* COVID took off there, it would be bad.
It is interesting, as well, to see how Leicester stands out. Rather validates the idea that a lock down was ordered *before* things got out of hand again - indications over the last couple of weeks, and then definite changes last week.0 -
The UK has demonstrated all the agility of a maladroit apatosaurus over it's flight arrangements.rcs1000 said:
The problem for the EU is that the UK lets anyone in. I could fly from the US to the UK and then straight on to Madrid.CarlottaVance said:
Not that I have Coronavirus.0 -
Couldn't agree more. Leave's campaign was only brilliant in comparison to Remain.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. xP, you give too much praise to Boris Johnson and not enough censure for the pro-EU campaign.
A positive campaign on economics would've swayed enough people. Instead they developed a bus fixation and tried arguing that we don't give Ultramegabucks to the EU, but only Hypermegabucks.
People are there to be persuaded, that's the point of democracy. The fearful approach taken by Remain proved their undoing. Boris Johnson wasn't some sort of incredible pied piper. He was a plus for the Leave campaign, but we should not forget the campaign overall was dreadful.
It's just that Remain managed to be even worse.0 -
He has a great record against anti-semites. As might a donkey have.LadyG said:
Yes, that's what I think. Boris has now won enough campaigns for us to say he is very good at elections. The best since Blair.Pulpstar said:
He's an excellent campaigner.LadyG said:
It is amazing how often Boris suddenly finds himself in the perfect circumstances: twice in London, once at a Ge...Pulpstar said:
1/2 of his opponents were the remain side that fought on (And with constant trickery) to try and stop Brexit way past what the average person thought was reasonable and the other half of the opposition was Jeremy Corbyn and his followers.LadyG said:
It's far too early to judge Johnson. On the plus side, he's obviously better at elections than anyone since Blair. On the down side, he's obviously not good at managing pandemics.
2019 was about as perfect a circumstance you could ever have for the Tories.
Perhaps you could define the perfect circumstance which allowed him to win an apparently unwinnable referendum?
I rate Cummings very very highly too. Still should have gone mind.
The pandemic is a real test of governance and leadership, not campaigning though.
AS a PM it is too soon to tell. Especially as he faces probably the sternest tests, as a prime minister, since Winston Churchill: he has to steer us through a global pandemic, a great recession, and Brexit, in the next four years.
Against normal opponents we have yet to see.0 -
Quite right. I remember Labour Remain came up with a plan to get all present and former leaders to give a pro-EU speech in each constituent part of the UK at the same time: Blair in NI; Brown in Scotland; Kinnock in Wales and Corbyn in England. That would have been a massive and undeniable assertion of Labour's position to rally the ranks, but Corbyn scuppered it - he was clearly desperate for Remain to fail.Richard_Nabavi said:
It's a bit of an exaggeration to see 'he' won it, though obviously he helped win it. Cummings was more important in the victory.LadyG said:
It is amazing how often Boris suddenly finds himself in the perfect circumstances: twice in London, once at a Ge...Pulpstar said:
1/2 of his opponents were the remain side that fought on (And with constant trickery) to try and stop Brexit way past what the average person thought was reasonable and the other half of the opposition was Jeremy Corbyn and his followers.LadyG said:
It's far too early to judge Johnson. On the plus side, he's obviously better at elections than anyone since Blair. On the down side, he's obviously not good at managing pandemics.
2019 was about as perfect a circumstance you could ever have for the Tories.
Perhaps you could define the perfect circumstance which allowed him to win an apparently unwinnable referendum?
Still, the answer to your question is that Corbyn and his cabal were on the same side as Boris, so Labour did virtually nothing to campaign for Remain. That was a wholly unexpected circumstance when the referendum was promised. Angela Merkel did her bit as well.0 -
DecrepiterJohnL said:
FPT (too busy/dozy to have seen the new thread)
You think we should agree with Professor Sassoon that David Cameron was the worst Prime Minister ever?DecrepiterJohnL said:
You and @DecrepiterJohnL really are a precious pair when it comes to ignorance of how jaw-droppingly useless some of our nineteenth and twentieth century PMs were.ydoethur said:
https://politicalquarterly.blog/2020/01/28/the-worst-british-prime-minister-ever/
I'm with Paxo. Cameron was merely the worst since Lord North.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ek3l9iaByro
Alternative realities?
1. Blair said 'No thanks' to invading Iraq.
2, Cameron decided not to have the EU refrendum.
Think how they would be viewed now.
As an aside - thanks to Harold Wilson for not getting caught up in the Vietnam war.
https://www.forces.net/news/harold-wilson-man-who-kept-us-out-vietnam1 -
Seems like a history of diplomats there.CarlottaVance said:Looking at Gove's assertion that the NSA isn't automatically a security "expert" Frost's predecessors as NSA are:
Peter Ricketts: 2010-2012 Prior to his appointment as National Security Adviser, Ricketts had been the Permanent Secretary in the Foreign and Commonwealth Office. Before he took over that position in July 2006, he served as the Permanent Representative to NATO in Brussels. He was also previously the Chairman of the Joint Intelligence Committee.
Kim Darroch: (2012-15) In 2004, he transferred to 10 Downing Street, as Head of the Cabinet Office European Secretariat, where he served as the Prime Minister's principal advisor on European affairs. After three years, Darroch was appointed to replace John Grant in Brussels, as British Permanent Representative to the European Union in 2007 for a four-year term. On 24 June 2011, it was announced that Darroch would replace Peter Ricketts as National Security Advisor in January 2012
Mark Lyall Grant (2015-17) Lyall Grant was British Permanent Representative to the United Nations (UN) from 2009 to 2015. He held the office of President of the United Nations Security Council four times: in November 2010, March 2012, June 2013, and August 2014.
Mark Sedwill (2017-2020) In April 2009, Sedwill became the Ambassador to Afghanistan, In January 2010, he was additionally appointed as NATO's Senior Civilian Representative in Afghanistan, to be the civilian counterpart to the ISAF Commander, U.S. General Stanley A. McChrystal and then U.S. General David Petraeus. In May 2011, Sedwill took over as the FCO's Director-General for Afghanistan and Pakistan (and thus as the UK's Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan). In February 2013, Sedwill became the Permanent Secretary at the Home Office.
David Frost: From May 2006 until October 2008, Frost was the British Ambassador to Denmark then Director for Strategy and Policy Planning in the Foreign Office from October 2008 to October 2010, before being seconded to the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills where he served three years as Director for Europe, Trade, and International Affairs, Britain's most senior trade policy official. Frost left HM Diplomatic Service in 2013 to become CEO of the Scotch Whisky Association. Following the appointment of Boris Johnson as Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, Frost was taken on as HM Foreign Secretary's special adviser in November 2016, serving until Johnson left post in July 2018.
So we've had, 1) Permanent Representative to NATO and Chair of JIC, 2) Permanent Representative to the EU, 3) Permanent Representative to the UN and four times chair of the Security Council, 4) NATO Senior Civilian in Afghanistan and Home Office Permanent Secretary and 5) Johnson Special Advisor and Brexit negotiator.
Brexit negotiator sounds just as serious and significant a role as Permanent Representative to the EU.
Probably actually much more serious.1 -
Did Trump really visit Michael Gove's den?Scott_xP said:0 -
By that standard, Theresa May performed worse than a donkey...TOPPING said:
He has a great record against anti-semites. As might a donkey have.LadyG said:
Yes, that's what I think. Boris has now won enough campaigns for us to say he is very good at elections. The best since Blair.Pulpstar said:
He's an excellent campaigner.LadyG said:
It is amazing how often Boris suddenly finds himself in the perfect circumstances: twice in London, once at a Ge...Pulpstar said:
1/2 of his opponents were the remain side that fought on (And with constant trickery) to try and stop Brexit way past what the average person thought was reasonable and the other half of the opposition was Jeremy Corbyn and his followers.LadyG said:
It's far too early to judge Johnson. On the plus side, he's obviously better at elections than anyone since Blair. On the down side, he's obviously not good at managing pandemics.
2019 was about as perfect a circumstance you could ever have for the Tories.
Perhaps you could define the perfect circumstance which allowed him to win an apparently unwinnable referendum?
I rate Cummings very very highly too. Still should have gone mind.
The pandemic is a real test of governance and leadership, not campaigning though.
AS a PM it is too soon to tell. Especially as he faces probably the sternest tests, as a prime minister, since Winston Churchill: he has to steer us through a global pandemic, a great recession, and Brexit, in the next four years.
Against normal opponents we have yet to see.0 -
Some pretty senior diplomatic background - UK representative at UN and Chair of Security Council, Permanent Rep in NATO, UK Rep in Brussels. And Sedwell was PS at the Home Office which will have had a very heavy security element. Frost's diplomatic pinnacle was Ambassador to Denmark.DavidL said:A quick skim around Wiki suggests that Peter Rickets had a fairly solid background in security matters but Darroch, Mark Grant and indeed even Sedwell all seem to have a diplomatic background. I appreciate that some prior experience is less likely to be highlighted than others but on the face of it Frost looks pretty similar.
0 -
Bit harsh on MugabeCorrectHorseBattery said:Trump by far the worst world leader in recent history
0 -
The paper (Express I think) was claiming hotspots in areas which are reporting no cases!rcs1000 said:
Is that scary? I find it encouraging how most of the early hotspots - like Doncaster - were quickly brought under control.Malmesbury said:On the subject of spikes in cases - a scary looking graphics of hotspots was posted in the other thread.
So I looked at the Pillar 1 data. See below. I have coloured any days where more than 5 cases occurred to make them stand out.
The actual data shows a different story. But it isn't one that fits many people's idea of The Right Story.0 -
But the self quarantine rules are a joke. I get off at Heathrow from Atlanta and jump onto the tube without a mask.CarlottaVance said:
Not if the UK maintains 14 day self quarantine for US arrivals. AIUI the proposal is to keep that in place, except for certain countries - the same list as the EU presumably - who have been clear that we either offer quarantine free access to all, or UK arrivals in the EU would face quarantine.rcs1000 said:
The problem for the EU is that the UK lets anyone in. I could fly from the US to the UK and then straight on to Madrid.CarlottaVance said:
Not that I have Coronavirus.
I mean, WTF?0 -
No wonder they got on - look at all the pictures of Trump on the wall ;-)Alphabet_Soup said:
Did Trump really visit Michael Gove's den?Scott_xP said:0 -
"The UK has demonstrated all the agility of a maladroit apatosaurus over it's flight arrangements."
Or a dodo bird.0 -
I accept you probably have greater knowledge than me but I have seen enough to videos to convince me that Joe Biden is, at best, "extremely forgetful"SeaShantyIrish2 said:
The whole "Biden is demented" meme is a crock of lukewarm bat pee. Was a joint Putinist-BernieBros project.LadyG said:
Exactly my feelings. Until recently, I thought a Trump victory (even though I detest him) might be tolerable, because Biden could be worse (as he is demented) and the Democrats are stoking the Woke Warsrcs1000 said:
I read it last night. It was singularly depressing.LadyG said:Theresa May was a catastrophically bad prime minister who nearly got beat by Jeremy bloody Corbyn. No one gives a tinker's feck what she thinks.
Especially on the day when it is revealed that, alone amongst European leaders, she allowed herself to be humiliated and bullied by the appalling Trump. Merkel shrugged him off, despite the abuse.
https://twitter.com/LovedayM/status/1277945412301848578?s=20
That is a truly eye-watering piece of journalism, BTW. Definitely worth a read not just for the Theresa May bits. Tells you exactly how bad Trump has been for America, democracy and the West.
Until very recently I wanted Trump to win a second term. Not because I had any love for the man, but because it was important that it should be him who faced the hangover from some of his economic policies.
Now I know he has to go. Because institutions matter more than people. Better a good system than a great person. And America has a good system. It just needs to reassert itself, and to do that, Trump must go.
Now, like you, I accept he has to go, no ifs no buts. He is not just idiotic and pathetic, he is truly dangerous, for his country, for the West, for peace, for us all.
https://twitter.com/aturtlenamedbo1/status/1277365525702639622?s=20
He's old, he's clearly losing it.
It doesn't really matter anyway, the Democrats could have the late Liverpudlian comedian Ken Dodd as candidate and he would still be preferable to Trump.
Trump HAS to lose in Nov0 -
Is that the collective noun?Philip_Thompson said:
Seems like a history of diplomats there.CarlottaVance said:Looking at Gove's assertion that the NSA isn't automatically a security "expert" Frost's predecessors as NSA are:
Peter Ricketts: 2010-2012 Prior to his appointment as National Security Adviser, Ricketts had been the Permanent Secretary in the Foreign and Commonwealth Office. Before he took over that position in July 2006, he served as the Permanent Representative to NATO in Brussels. He was also previously the Chairman of the Joint Intelligence Committee.
Kim Darroch: (2012-15) In 2004, he transferred to 10 Downing Street, as Head of the Cabinet Office European Secretariat, where he served as the Prime Minister's principal advisor on European affairs. After three years, Darroch was appointed to replace John Grant in Brussels, as British Permanent Representative to the European Union in 2007 for a four-year term. On 24 June 2011, it was announced that Darroch would replace Peter Ricketts as National Security Advisor in January 2012
Mark Lyall Grant (2015-17) Lyall Grant was British Permanent Representative to the United Nations (UN) from 2009 to 2015. He held the office of President of the United Nations Security Council four times: in November 2010, March 2012, June 2013, and August 2014.
Mark Sedwill (2017-2020) In April 2009, Sedwill became the Ambassador to Afghanistan, In January 2010, he was additionally appointed as NATO's Senior Civilian Representative in Afghanistan, to be the civilian counterpart to the ISAF Commander, U.S. General Stanley A. McChrystal and then U.S. General David Petraeus. In May 2011, Sedwill took over as the FCO's Director-General for Afghanistan and Pakistan (and thus as the UK's Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan). In February 2013, Sedwill became the Permanent Secretary at the Home Office.
David Frost: From May 2006 until October 2008, Frost was the British Ambassador to Denmark then Director for Strategy and Policy Planning in the Foreign Office from October 2008 to October 2010, before being seconded to the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills where he served three years as Director for Europe, Trade, and International Affairs, Britain's most senior trade policy official. Frost left HM Diplomatic Service in 2013 to become CEO of the Scotch Whisky Association. Following the appointment of Boris Johnson as Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, Frost was taken on as HM Foreign Secretary's special adviser in November 2016, serving until Johnson left post in July 2018.
So we've had, 1) Permanent Representative to NATO and Chair of JIC, 2) Permanent Representative to the EU, 3) Permanent Representative to the UN and four times chair of the Security Council, 4) NATO Senior Civilian in Afghanistan and Home Office Permanent Secretary and 5) Johnson Special Advisor and Brexit negotiator.
Brexit negotiator sounds just as serious and significant a role as Permanent Representative to the EU.
Probably actually much more serious.
1 -
'Vote Trump - Not quite a bad as Amin or Mugabe!'coach said:
Bit harsh on MugabeCorrectHorseBattery said:Trump by far the worst world leader in recent history
Except their effect was much more local.0 -
I don't think the Thais will let us in for a while. Sadly.rcs1000 said:
The problem for the EU is that the UK lets anyone in. I could fly from the US to the UK and then straight on to Madrid.CarlottaVance said:
Not that I have Coronavirus.0 -
BoJo is like W. Great on the stump but not so hot at governation.Scott_xP said:
As noted upthread, his big relaunch this morning was a campaign speech.LadyG said:Yes, that's what I think. Boris has now won enough campaigns for us to say he is very good at elections. The best since Blair.
AS a PM it is too soon to tell.
It wasn't close to governing.
The jury is in...0 -
Worked with Jeremy in his P&G days - marked out as a star then - nice chap. His boss told me "you can have Jeremy, but be aware I'll probably be promoting him onto Pampers shortly" - I replied "If I can have stars I get to keep briefly, over plodders I can keep for ever, I'll take the stars". He's actually from Northumberland, not Durham.rcs1000 said:
Did anyone notice how the CEO of Sky and the former Head of the Civil Service were both from County Durham and both had the (not particularly common) surname Darroch. I always wondered if they were related.DavidL said:A quick skim around Wiki suggests that Peter Rickets had a fairly solid background in security matters but Darroch, Mark Grant and indeed even Sedwell all seem to have a diplomatic background. I appreciate that some prior experience is less likely to be highlighted than others but on the face of it Frost looks pretty similar.
0 -
Yeah she was pretty bad. The fact that an anti-semite couldn't beat her, however, is testament to the voters' view of anti-semites and who they are likely to back if an anti-semite is in the contest.BluestBlue said:
By that standard, Theresa May performed worse than a donkey...TOPPING said:
He has a great record against anti-semites. As might a donkey have.LadyG said:
Yes, that's what I think. Boris has now won enough campaigns for us to say he is very good at elections. The best since Blair.Pulpstar said:
He's an excellent campaigner.LadyG said:
It is amazing how often Boris suddenly finds himself in the perfect circumstances: twice in London, once at a Ge...Pulpstar said:
1/2 of his opponents were the remain side that fought on (And with constant trickery) to try and stop Brexit way past what the average person thought was reasonable and the other half of the opposition was Jeremy Corbyn and his followers.LadyG said:
It's far too early to judge Johnson. On the plus side, he's obviously better at elections than anyone since Blair. On the down side, he's obviously not good at managing pandemics.
2019 was about as perfect a circumstance you could ever have for the Tories.
Perhaps you could define the perfect circumstance which allowed him to win an apparently unwinnable referendum?
I rate Cummings very very highly too. Still should have gone mind.
The pandemic is a real test of governance and leadership, not campaigning though.
AS a PM it is too soon to tell. Especially as he faces probably the sternest tests, as a prime minister, since Winston Churchill: he has to steer us through a global pandemic, a great recession, and Brexit, in the next four years.
Against normal opponents we have yet to see.0 -
Mask wearing on public transport is now compulsory.rcs1000 said:
But the self quarantine rules are a joke. I get off at Heathrow from Atlanta and jump onto the tube without a mask.CarlottaVance said:
Not if the UK maintains 14 day self quarantine for US arrivals. AIUI the proposal is to keep that in place, except for certain countries - the same list as the EU presumably - who have been clear that we either offer quarantine free access to all, or UK arrivals in the EU would face quarantine.rcs1000 said:
The problem for the EU is that the UK lets anyone in. I could fly from the US to the UK and then straight on to Madrid.CarlottaVance said:
Not that I have Coronavirus.
I mean, WTF?
0 -
Good LadyG, our Joe has ALWAYS been that way. Which is one reason why Judge Bork underestimated him . . . and thus enriched our language with "Borked".LadyG said:
I accept you probably have greater knowledge than me but I have seen enough to videos to convince me that Joe Biden is, at best, "extremely forgetful"SeaShantyIrish2 said:
The whole "Biden is demented" meme is a crock of lukewarm bat pee. Was a joint Putinist-BernieBros project.LadyG said:
Exactly my feelings. Until recently, I thought a Trump victory (even though I detest him) might be tolerable, because Biden could be worse (as he is demented) and the Democrats are stoking the Woke Warsrcs1000 said:
I read it last night. It was singularly depressing.LadyG said:Theresa May was a catastrophically bad prime minister who nearly got beat by Jeremy bloody Corbyn. No one gives a tinker's feck what she thinks.
Especially on the day when it is revealed that, alone amongst European leaders, she allowed herself to be humiliated and bullied by the appalling Trump. Merkel shrugged him off, despite the abuse.
https://twitter.com/LovedayM/status/1277945412301848578?s=20
That is a truly eye-watering piece of journalism, BTW. Definitely worth a read not just for the Theresa May bits. Tells you exactly how bad Trump has been for America, democracy and the West.
Until very recently I wanted Trump to win a second term. Not because I had any love for the man, but because it was important that it should be him who faced the hangover from some of his economic policies.
Now I know he has to go. Because institutions matter more than people. Better a good system than a great person. And America has a good system. It just needs to reassert itself, and to do that, Trump must go.
Now, like you, I accept he has to go, no ifs no buts. He is not just idiotic and pathetic, he is truly dangerous, for his country, for the West, for peace, for us all.
https://twitter.com/aturtlenamedbo1/status/1277365525702639622?s=20
He's old, he's clearly losing it.
It doesn't really matter anyway, the Democrats could have the late Liverpudlian comedian Ken Dodd as candidate and he would still be preferable to Trump.
Trump HAS to lose in Nov0 -
The one thing peculiar thing about all criticisms of Trump are that they boil down to manner rather than policy. As I've posted before its like they come from the head of some sort of political finishing school.
What an uncouth fellow. Did you know he shouted at some female leaders! We're talking about people who have dined on the entrails of their competitors to get where they are, but that's OK because they did it in the RIGHT way. They didn;t upset any journalists. They listened to think tanks and didn;t call out sacked advisors when they vented their spleen.
They caved in to the Erdogans and Putins of this world, but crucially they acted tough and pulled stern faces when needed. When the press were there. Which is what counts.
Its amazing really.1 -
I disagree. The Leave campaign was better than I expected while the Remain campaign was worse than expected.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. xP, you give too much praise to Boris Johnson and not enough censure for the pro-EU campaign.
A positive campaign on economics would've swayed enough people. Instead they developed a bus fixation and tried arguing that we don't give Ultramegabucks to the EU, but only Hypermegabucks.
People are there to be persuaded, that's the point of democracy. The fearful approach taken by Remain proved their undoing. Boris Johnson wasn't some sort of incredible pied piper. He was a plus for the Leave campaign, but we should not forget the campaign overall was dreadful.
It's just that Remain managed to be even worse.
Prior to the Referendum it was expected that Leave would campaign on immigration and Remain on the economy. Instead Leave took the battle onto what was perceived to be Remains ground and the economy debate became a question of how much money we pay the EU each year.
It was a tactical and strategic masterstroke. Had Leave been led by Farage and his ilk it'd have been immigration day in, day out and would have lost.3 -
Dr Fauci testifying before the Senate:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/30/world/coronavirus-live-updates.html0 -
My personal favourite was when a Northern relative phoned me - apparently a Pro -Remain business leader had been interviewed on the radio. He (the business leader) was in anguish, apparently - because if Brexit went through, wages would go up.....Philip_Thompson said:
I disagree. The Leave campaign was better than I expected while the Remain campaign was worse than expected.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. xP, you give too much praise to Boris Johnson and not enough censure for the pro-EU campaign.
A positive campaign on economics would've swayed enough people. Instead they developed a bus fixation and tried arguing that we don't give Ultramegabucks to the EU, but only Hypermegabucks.
People are there to be persuaded, that's the point of democracy. The fearful approach taken by Remain proved their undoing. Boris Johnson wasn't some sort of incredible pied piper. He was a plus for the Leave campaign, but we should not forget the campaign overall was dreadful.
It's just that Remain managed to be even worse.
Prior to the Referendum it was expected that Leave would campaign on immigration and Remain on the economy. Instead Leave took the battle onto what was perceived to be Remains ground and the economy debate became a question of how much money we pay the EU each year.
It was a tactical and strategic masterstroke. Had Leave been led by Farage and his ilk it'd have been immigration day in, day out and would have lost.2 -
Leave was led by Farage and his ilk.Philip_Thompson said:
I disagree. The Leave campaign was better than I expected while the Remain campaign was worse than expected.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. xP, you give too much praise to Boris Johnson and not enough censure for the pro-EU campaign.
A positive campaign on economics would've swayed enough people. Instead they developed a bus fixation and tried arguing that we don't give Ultramegabucks to the EU, but only Hypermegabucks.
People are there to be persuaded, that's the point of democracy. The fearful approach taken by Remain proved their undoing. Boris Johnson wasn't some sort of incredible pied piper. He was a plus for the Leave campaign, but we should not forget the campaign overall was dreadful.
It's just that Remain managed to be even worse.
Prior to the Referendum it was expected that Leave would campaign on immigration and Remain on the economy. Instead Leave took the battle onto what was perceived to be Remains ground and the economy debate became a question of how much money we pay the EU each year.
It was a tactical and strategic masterstroke. Had Leave been led by Farage and his ilk it'd have been immigration day in, day out and would have lost.0 -
The debates......goodness.....SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Good LadyG, our Joe has ALWAYS been that way. Which is one reason why Judge Bork underestimated him . . . and thus enriched our language with "Borked".LadyG said:
I accept you probably have greater knowledge than me but I have seen enough to videos to convince me that Joe Biden is, at best, "extremely forgetful"SeaShantyIrish2 said:
The whole "Biden is demented" meme is a crock of lukewarm bat pee. Was a joint Putinist-BernieBros project.LadyG said:
Exactly my feelings. Until recently, I thought a Trump victory (even though I detest him) might be tolerable, because Biden could be worse (as he is demented) and the Democrats are stoking the Woke Warsrcs1000 said:
I read it last night. It was singularly depressing.LadyG said:Theresa May was a catastrophically bad prime minister who nearly got beat by Jeremy bloody Corbyn. No one gives a tinker's feck what she thinks.
Especially on the day when it is revealed that, alone amongst European leaders, she allowed herself to be humiliated and bullied by the appalling Trump. Merkel shrugged him off, despite the abuse.
https://twitter.com/LovedayM/status/1277945412301848578?s=20
That is a truly eye-watering piece of journalism, BTW. Definitely worth a read not just for the Theresa May bits. Tells you exactly how bad Trump has been for America, democracy and the West.
Until very recently I wanted Trump to win a second term. Not because I had any love for the man, but because it was important that it should be him who faced the hangover from some of his economic policies.
Now I know he has to go. Because institutions matter more than people. Better a good system than a great person. And America has a good system. It just needs to reassert itself, and to do that, Trump must go.
Now, like you, I accept he has to go, no ifs no buts. He is not just idiotic and pathetic, he is truly dangerous, for his country, for the West, for peace, for us all.
https://twitter.com/aturtlenamedbo1/status/1277365525702639622?s=20
He's old, he's clearly losing it.
It doesn't really matter anyway, the Democrats could have the late Liverpudlian comedian Ken Dodd as candidate and he would still be preferable to Trump.
Trump HAS to lose in Nov0 -
Hi Malmesbury - can I ask were you get the data (as I want to as well!)Malmesbury said:On the subject of spikes in cases - a scary looking graphics of hotspots was posted in the other thread.
So I looked at the Pillar 1 data. See below. I have coloured any days where more than 5 cases occurred to make them stand out.0 -
Why don't you consider Chief Brexit Negotiator to be as serious as "UK Rep in Brussels"?CarlottaVance said:
Some pretty senior diplomatic background - UK representative at UN and Chair of Security Council, Permanent Rep in NATO, UK Rep in Brussels. And Sedwell was PS at the Home Office which will have had a very heavy security element. Frost's diplomatic pinnacle was Ambassador to Denmark.DavidL said:A quick skim around Wiki suggests that Peter Rickets had a fairly solid background in security matters but Darroch, Mark Grant and indeed even Sedwell all seem to have a diplomatic background. I appreciate that some prior experience is less likely to be highlighted than others but on the face of it Frost looks pretty similar.
As a diplomatic pinnacle its probably higher due to the significance of the role as it stands.0 -
That was a really memorable moment!Malmesbury said:
My personal favourite was when a Northern relative phoned me - apparently a Pro -Remain business leader had been interviewed on the radio. He (the business leader) was in anguish, apparently - because if Brexit went through, wages would go up.....Philip_Thompson said:
I disagree. The Leave campaign was better than I expected while the Remain campaign was worse than expected.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. xP, you give too much praise to Boris Johnson and not enough censure for the pro-EU campaign.
A positive campaign on economics would've swayed enough people. Instead they developed a bus fixation and tried arguing that we don't give Ultramegabucks to the EU, but only Hypermegabucks.
People are there to be persuaded, that's the point of democracy. The fearful approach taken by Remain proved their undoing. Boris Johnson wasn't some sort of incredible pied piper. He was a plus for the Leave campaign, but we should not forget the campaign overall was dreadful.
It's just that Remain managed to be even worse.
Prior to the Referendum it was expected that Leave would campaign on immigration and Remain on the economy. Instead Leave took the battle onto what was perceived to be Remains ground and the economy debate became a question of how much money we pay the EU each year.
It was a tactical and strategic masterstroke. Had Leave been led by Farage and his ilk it'd have been immigration day in, day out and would have lost.1 -
Oh come on Topping. I expected that response from Antifrank but you're better than that!TOPPING said:
Leave was led by Farage and his ilk.Philip_Thompson said:
I disagree. The Leave campaign was better than I expected while the Remain campaign was worse than expected.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. xP, you give too much praise to Boris Johnson and not enough censure for the pro-EU campaign.
A positive campaign on economics would've swayed enough people. Instead they developed a bus fixation and tried arguing that we don't give Ultramegabucks to the EU, but only Hypermegabucks.
People are there to be persuaded, that's the point of democracy. The fearful approach taken by Remain proved their undoing. Boris Johnson wasn't some sort of incredible pied piper. He was a plus for the Leave campaign, but we should not forget the campaign overall was dreadful.
It's just that Remain managed to be even worse.
Prior to the Referendum it was expected that Leave would campaign on immigration and Remain on the economy. Instead Leave took the battle onto what was perceived to be Remains ground and the economy debate became a question of how much money we pay the EU each year.
It was a tactical and strategic masterstroke. Had Leave been led by Farage and his ilk it'd have been immigration day in, day out and would have lost.0 -
Cunningly hidden from the public by D. Cummings, here -turbotubbs said:
Hi Malmesbury - can I ask were you get the data (as I want to as well!)Malmesbury said:On the subject of spikes in cases - a scary looking graphics of hotspots was posted in the other thread.
So I looked at the Pillar 1 data. See below. I have coloured any days where more than 5 cases occurred to make them stand out.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/downloads/csv/coronavirus-cases_latest.csv
Updated each day at about 4:30pm0 -
Interesting - Fauci testifying that in the US even where states have managed lockdown well and are gradually opening up have had the problem of people going from 100% lockdown to 0% lockdown - with the young in particular acting like they are invulnerable (even if some of them aren't, and all of them are potentially lethal vectors).0
-
You're right - Alnick. Still, they're both from the North East.CarlottaVance said:
Worked with Jeremy in his P&G days - marked out as a star then - nice chap. His boss told me "you can have Jeremy, but be aware I'll probably be promoting him onto Pampers shortly" - I replied "If I can have stars I get to keep briefly, over plodders I can keep for ever, I'll take the stars". He's actually from Northumberland, not Durham.rcs1000 said:
Did anyone notice how the CEO of Sky and the former Head of the Civil Service were both from County Durham and both had the (not particularly common) surname Darroch. I always wondered if they were related.DavidL said:A quick skim around Wiki suggests that Peter Rickets had a fairly solid background in security matters but Darroch, Mark Grant and indeed even Sedwell all seem to have a diplomatic background. I appreciate that some prior experience is less likely to be highlighted than others but on the face of it Frost looks pretty similar.
0 -
It's also bollocks to say that the Remain campaign was "bad". They did everything you are expected to do: they did the powerful data stuff - how much this would cost us, the damage to trade, the Emergency Budget, the instant recession, the instant unemployment (ie they lied, like Leave).Philip_Thompson said:
I disagree. The Leave campaign was better than I expected while the Remain campaign was worse than expected.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. xP, you give too much praise to Boris Johnson and not enough censure for the pro-EU campaign.
A positive campaign on economics would've swayed enough people. Instead they developed a bus fixation and tried arguing that we don't give Ultramegabucks to the EU, but only Hypermegabucks.
People are there to be persuaded, that's the point of democracy. The fearful approach taken by Remain proved their undoing. Boris Johnson wasn't some sort of incredible pied piper. He was a plus for the Leave campaign, but we should not forget the campaign overall was dreadful.
It's just that Remain managed to be even worse.
Prior to the Referendum it was expected that Leave would campaign on immigration and Remain on the economy. Instead Leave took the battle onto what was perceived to be Remains ground and the economy debate became a question of how much money we pay the EU each year.
It was a tactical and strategic masterstroke. Had Leave been led by Farage and his ilk it'd have been immigration day in, day out and would have lost.
On top of that they brought in all the big guns: from Obama to Brussels, the major newspapers, the CBI, almost every celebrity. They tugged at heart strings and did clever speeches. They did everything that was done in 1975 which led to a huge win for "JOIN THE EU" (even if it was technically "stay")
The Remain campaign was not bad at all. It was solid and well organised.
The problem is that the Leave campaign was unexpectedly superb. Very clever and very devious. There are two main reasons for this: they got Dom Cummings to mastermind it, and he really is good at this shit, and they got Boris Johnson to be the figurehead of the campaign, and he really is good at that shit.
There's a telling anecdote about the moment Cameron's team heard that Johnson had gone for Leave. They all fell into a terrible depressive hush, because they knew that meant they could lose.
Without Boris, Leave would have lost.
3 -
Do you think if Leave had campaigned on immigration like Farage wanted instead of changing the battle onto extra money for the NHS etc that the Leave campaign would have been better or worse?rcs1000 said:
Couldn't agree more. Leave's campaign was only brilliant in comparison to Remain.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. xP, you give too much praise to Boris Johnson and not enough censure for the pro-EU campaign.
A positive campaign on economics would've swayed enough people. Instead they developed a bus fixation and tried arguing that we don't give Ultramegabucks to the EU, but only Hypermegabucks.
People are there to be persuaded, that's the point of democracy. The fearful approach taken by Remain proved their undoing. Boris Johnson wasn't some sort of incredible pied piper. He was a plus for the Leave campaign, but we should not forget the campaign overall was dreadful.
It's just that Remain managed to be even worse.0 -
0
-
Yep - crudely 25 this week, 41 last week. Virtually all indicators are still going in the right direction, but its a long tail (and was always anticipated to be). The ridiculous Express story (and copied elsewhere) are as bad as their coldest winter in 100 years stories.Black_Rook said:Mildly encouraging news from today's NHS England hospital death count.
37 today, of which 12 occurred more than 5 days ago, compared with 46 last Tuesday, of which 5 occurred more than 5 days previously.
Hardly stellar progress, but at least it's not going backwards.0 -
FPT
Carnyx said:
» show previous quotes
What is also so remarkable is that that cartoon was published by the Herald.
Yes , they must be noticing the way the wind is blowing0 -
How does his nullifying of sanctions against Halkbank fit that narrative? It was Trump who gave Erdogan exactly what he wanted, not his predecessors.contrarian said:The one thing peculiar thing about all criticisms of Trump are that they boil down to manner rather than policy. As I've posted before its like they come from the head of some sort of political finishing school.
What an uncouth fellow. Did you know he shouted at some female leaders! We're talking about people who have dined on the entrails of their competitors to get where they are, but that's OK because they did it in the RIGHT way. They didn;t upset any journalists. They listened to think tanks and didn;t call out sacked advisors when they vented their spleen.
They caved in to the Erdogans and Putins of this world, but crucially they acted tough and pulled stern faces when needed. When the press were there. Which is what counts.
Its amazing really.0 -
Yep.CarlottaVance said:Interesting - Fauci testifying that in the US even where states have managed lockdown well and are gradually opening up have had the problem of people going from 100% lockdown to 0% lockdown - with the young in particular acting like they are invulnerable (even if some of them aren't, and all of them are potentially lethal vectors).
That's the kicker. You need to gradually relax lockdowns over months, not allow people to head straight down to the local nightclub.1 -
Leave would probably have done worse, although Immigration was a popular issue. Remain never managed to get on the front foot. It was absolute pants compared with 1975.Philip_Thompson said:
Do you think if Leave had campaigned on immigration like Farage wanted instead of changing the battle onto extra money for the NHS etc that the Leave campaign would have been better or worse?rcs1000 said:
Couldn't agree more. Leave's campaign was only brilliant in comparison to Remain.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. xP, you give too much praise to Boris Johnson and not enough censure for the pro-EU campaign.
A positive campaign on economics would've swayed enough people. Instead they developed a bus fixation and tried arguing that we don't give Ultramegabucks to the EU, but only Hypermegabucks.
People are there to be persuaded, that's the point of democracy. The fearful approach taken by Remain proved their undoing. Boris Johnson wasn't some sort of incredible pied piper. He was a plus for the Leave campaign, but we should not forget the campaign overall was dreadful.
It's just that Remain managed to be even worse.0 -
That's what we've done but I don't see (short of eliminating the virus NZ style) how the nightclubs can reopen in the future.rcs1000 said:
Yep.CarlottaVance said:Interesting - Fauci testifying that in the US even where states have managed lockdown well and are gradually opening up have had the problem of people going from 100% lockdown to 0% lockdown - with the young in particular acting like they are invulnerable (even if some of them aren't, and all of them are potentially lethal vectors).
That's the kicker. You need to gradually relax lockdowns over months, not allow people to head straight down to the local nightclub.
If you keep gradually loosening while keeping R below 1 you'll eventually reach a point surely where you can't loosen any further without raising it back above 1 - which is probably nightclubs.1 -
Iran is very definitely in a second wave, even on the basis of its own dodgy data
Yesterday it had its highest ever death toll. Exceeding the peak in early April
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/iran/1 -
And gyms. I think they are screwed until there is a vaccine.Philip_Thompson said:
That's what we've done but I don't see (short of eliminating the virus NZ style) how the nightclubs can reopen in the future.rcs1000 said:
Yep.CarlottaVance said:Interesting - Fauci testifying that in the US even where states have managed lockdown well and are gradually opening up have had the problem of people going from 100% lockdown to 0% lockdown - with the young in particular acting like they are invulnerable (even if some of them aren't, and all of them are potentially lethal vectors).
That's the kicker. You need to gradually relax lockdowns over months, not allow people to head straight down to the local nightclub.
If you keep gradually loosening while keeping R below 1 you'll eventually reach a point surely where you can't loosen any further without raising it back above 1 - which is probably nightclubs.0 -
He's been in the job 5 months and so far its too soon to see if he'll be successful. Also not clear to what extent, if any, he's been making progress on the security aspects. He didn't get the job because of his Brexit negotiation role, he got it because of his personal connection to Johnson.Philip_Thompson said:
Why don't you consider Chief Brexit Negotiator to be as serious as "UK Rep in Brussels"?CarlottaVance said:
Some pretty senior diplomatic background - UK representative at UN and Chair of Security Council, Permanent Rep in NATO, UK Rep in Brussels. And Sedwell was PS at the Home Office which will have had a very heavy security element. Frost's diplomatic pinnacle was Ambassador to Denmark.DavidL said:A quick skim around Wiki suggests that Peter Rickets had a fairly solid background in security matters but Darroch, Mark Grant and indeed even Sedwell all seem to have a diplomatic background. I appreciate that some prior experience is less likely to be highlighted than others but on the face of it Frost looks pretty similar.
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Alternatively, Remain wasn't pants, it was a standard issue campaign with some good moments and decent performers - like Ruth Davidson in the debates - it was just confronted with an unexpectedly brilliant opponent, who out-thought themOldKingCole said:
Leave would probably have done worse, although Immigration was a popular issue. Remain never managed to get on the front foot. It was absolute pants compared with 1975.Philip_Thompson said:
Do you think if Leave had campaigned on immigration like Farage wanted instead of changing the battle onto extra money for the NHS etc that the Leave campaign would have been better or worse?rcs1000 said:
Couldn't agree more. Leave's campaign was only brilliant in comparison to Remain.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. xP, you give too much praise to Boris Johnson and not enough censure for the pro-EU campaign.
A positive campaign on economics would've swayed enough people. Instead they developed a bus fixation and tried arguing that we don't give Ultramegabucks to the EU, but only Hypermegabucks.
People are there to be persuaded, that's the point of democracy. The fearful approach taken by Remain proved their undoing. Boris Johnson wasn't some sort of incredible pied piper. He was a plus for the Leave campaign, but we should not forget the campaign overall was dreadful.
It's just that Remain managed to be even worse.
eg TAKE BACK CONTROL
That is electioneering genius. Very hard to refute or deny, without sounding mad or boring0 -
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And theatres, especially musicals. Which is a tragedy for LondonRobD said:
And gyms. I think they are screwed until there is a vaccine.Philip_Thompson said:
That's what we've done but I don't see (short of eliminating the virus NZ style) how the nightclubs can reopen in the future.rcs1000 said:
Yep.CarlottaVance said:Interesting - Fauci testifying that in the US even where states have managed lockdown well and are gradually opening up have had the problem of people going from 100% lockdown to 0% lockdown - with the young in particular acting like they are invulnerable (even if some of them aren't, and all of them are potentially lethal vectors).
That's the kicker. You need to gradually relax lockdowns over months, not allow people to head straight down to the local nightclub.
If you keep gradually loosening while keeping R below 1 you'll eventually reach a point surely where you can't loosen any further without raising it back above 1 - which is probably nightclubs.0 -
I don't really know why we bother discussing anything, according to BluestBlue nothing matters because everything is going to work out exactly as it did last time.Nigel_Foremain said:
Oh dear, when will you learn? Holding the most important executive position in the country isn't just about winning an election against a joke of an opposition leader. It is about the business of governing. Johnson has no executive skills, no management skills. His oratory is amateurish at best and the people he brings to the table are weak. You are so obsessed about his easy win at the last GE that you have failed to notice that he is a fucking disaster as PM. If it wasn't so serious it would be laughable.BluestBlue said:Remember how much of a 'problem' the condemnation of John Major and Tony Blair was before the election? They allowed Boris to contrast himself favourably against disliked figures from both the Tory and the Labour past, to great electoral effect.
No one but no one is pining to have May back.
People are at last beginning to see what Trump is all about. Soon they will see what our joke of a "leader" is also about. Governing the country is about more than winning beauty contests for ugly people.0 -
Got to hand it to Robototron - had she been this ice cold calculated when she was PM then she would likely still have been PM. Never mind the kitten heels dancing shit, give them the ice stare of death.0
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Those boffins at Oxford better get a bloody move on.LadyG said:
And theatres, especially musicals. Which is a tragedy for LondonRobD said:
And gyms. I think they are screwed until there is a vaccine.Philip_Thompson said:
That's what we've done but I don't see (short of eliminating the virus NZ style) how the nightclubs can reopen in the future.rcs1000 said:
Yep.CarlottaVance said:Interesting - Fauci testifying that in the US even where states have managed lockdown well and are gradually opening up have had the problem of people going from 100% lockdown to 0% lockdown - with the young in particular acting like they are invulnerable (even if some of them aren't, and all of them are potentially lethal vectors).
That's the kicker. You need to gradually relax lockdowns over months, not allow people to head straight down to the local nightclub.
If you keep gradually loosening while keeping R below 1 you'll eventually reach a point surely where you can't loosen any further without raising it back above 1 - which is probably nightclubs.0 -
On Topic. May is the worst PM we have had since WW2. And I include all the Labour ones to which I have an instinctive ideological opposition. I even include Heath who I detest for taking us into the EEC.
May failed at every single thing she did. She couldn't win elections, couldn't get a reasonable Brexit deal sorted out, couldn't do a damn thing right.
As Home Secretary she was an authoritarian nightmare who used xenophobia and fear to try and deal with serious issues around immigration and managed to make people who had lived here for years feel like they were no longer welcome. She did the BNPs job for them.
She displayed a complete and utter lack of both empathy and understanding of what normal people wanted. She managed to alienate both Brexiteers and Remainers and then tried to blame everyone else for her failings.
If she is going to sit on the back benches she should keep her damn mouth shut and reflect on how much damage she did to this country and the people in it of all political persuasions.0 -
This chart from the Daily Mail perhaps illustrates it better. I would ignore places with fewer than 5 as likely to be sporadic variation in R number. In Leicester the r number looks to be about 1.Malmesbury said:
It's just pillar 1, so there are more cases than that. But Pillar 1 data was used to write the story!NerysHughes said:
I particularly like the Isle of Wight, 3 cases in the whole of June and the story was reposted on here as if gospel that there were a spike of cases on the Island.Malmesbury said:On the subject of spikes in cases - a scary looking graphics of hotspots was posted in the other thread.
So I looked at the Pillar 1 data. See below. I have coloured any days where more than 5 cases occurred to make them stand out.
Isle of Wight is an obvious tell that the story was rubbish - there has been a serious lack of cases. I have a feeling that it got included in the story because of this - https://www.countypress.co.uk/news/18549892.coronavirus-university-research-names-isle-wight-potential-second-wave-hotspot which is saying, essentially, that *if* COVID took off there, it would be bad.
It is interesting, as well, to see how Leicester stands out. Rather validates the idea that a lock down was ordered *before* things got out of hand again - indications over the last couple of weeks, and then definite changes last week.
Doncaster, Derbyshire, Medway and several boroughs in West London look problematic though.
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Donald Trump calling Angela Merkel stupid and in Putin's pocket. That really does prennez le biscuit.LadyG said:Theresa May was a catastrophically bad prime minister who nearly got beat by Jeremy bloody Corbyn. No one gives a tinker's feck what she thinks.
Especially on the day when it is revealed that, alone amongst European leaders, she allowed herself to be humiliated and bullied by the appalling Trump. Merkel shrugged him off, despite the abuse.
That is a truly eye-watering piece of journalism, BTW. Definitely worth a read not just for the Theresa May bits. Tells you exactly how bad Trump has been for America, democracy and the West.0 -
Yes, that's probably fair. The Remain side weren't very nimble, though, they just worked through their grid (excluding the rather important bits which Corbyn and Seumas Milne sabotaged). In particular they fell straight into Cummings' trap on the £350m a week lie, trying to correct it to 'only' £250m a week and thereby giving it extra legs - not just once but repeatedly.LadyG said:
Alternatively, Remain wasn't pants, it was a standard issue campaign with some good moments and decent performers - like Ruth Davidson in the debates - it was just confronted with an unexpectedly brilliant opponent, who out-thought them
eg TAKE BACK CONTROL
That is electioneering genius. Very hard to refute or deny, without sounding mad or boring2 -
Far worse.Philip_Thompson said:
Do you think if Leave had campaigned on immigration like Farage wanted instead of changing the battle onto extra money for the NHS etc that the Leave campaign would have been better or worse?rcs1000 said:
Couldn't agree more. Leave's campaign was only brilliant in comparison to Remain.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. xP, you give too much praise to Boris Johnson and not enough censure for the pro-EU campaign.
A positive campaign on economics would've swayed enough people. Instead they developed a bus fixation and tried arguing that we don't give Ultramegabucks to the EU, but only Hypermegabucks.
People are there to be persuaded, that's the point of democracy. The fearful approach taken by Remain proved their undoing. Boris Johnson wasn't some sort of incredible pied piper. He was a plus for the Leave campaign, but we should not forget the campaign overall was dreadful.
It's just that Remain managed to be even worse.2 -
Sanders has just got the Drs to agree to "free masks for all" and "free vaccinations for all".0
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which country gives untold billion to Russia every year in return for energy so Putin can keep his war machine in tip top shape? and then skimps on its defence spending?kinabalu said:
Donald Trump calling Angela Merkel stupid and in Putin's pocket. That really does prennez le biscuit.LadyG said:Theresa May was a catastrophically bad prime minister who nearly got beat by Jeremy bloody Corbyn. No one gives a tinker's feck what she thinks.
Especially on the day when it is revealed that, alone amongst European leaders, she allowed herself to be humiliated and bullied by the appalling Trump. Merkel shrugged him off, despite the abuse.
https://twitter.com/LovedayM/status/1277945412301848578?s=20
That is a truly eye-watering piece of journalism, BTW. Definitely worth a read not just for the Theresa May bits. Tells you exactly how bad Trump has been for America, democracy and the West.
Remind me, is that the US or Germany?
Looking at the Eurozone utterly shattered economy, how would you rate the way Merkel's Germany has led the region?1 -
Spot on.Richard_Tyndall said:On Topic. May is the worst PM we have had since WW2. And I include all the Labour ones to which I have an instinctive ideological opposition. I even include Heath who I detest for taking us into the EEC.
May failed at every single thing she did. She couldn't win elections, couldn't get a reasonable Brexit deal sorted out, couldn't do a damn thing right.
As Home Secretary she was an authoritarian nightmare who used xenophobia and fear to try and deal with serious issues around immigration and managed to make people who had lived here for years feel like they were no longer welcome. She did the BNPs job for them.
She displayed a complete and utter lack of both empathy and understanding of what normal people wanted. She managed to alienate both Brexiteers and Remainers and then tried to blame everyone else for her failings.
If she is going to sit on the back benches she should keep her damn mouth shut and reflect on how much damage she did to this country and the people in it of all political persuasions.
And add that insane speech at the conference, with its hideous tone of voice ("citizens of nowhere"), which served no one and annoyed almost everyone, as she laid down red lines which did nothing apart from box us in, from then on.
She was a calamity. And no amount of silly hard stares across the Commons can alter that.
And now I must do some work, and calm myself. Toodles.1 -
A diagram which includes increases of 0 to 1, 3 to 4, etc as "hot spots" is absurd.Foxy said:
This chart from the Daily Mail perhaps illustrates it better. I would ignore places with fewer than 5 as likely to be sporadic variation in R number. In Leicester the r number looks to be about 1.Malmesbury said:
It's just pillar 1, so there are more cases than that. But Pillar 1 data was used to write the story!NerysHughes said:
I particularly like the Isle of Wight, 3 cases in the whole of June and the story was reposted on here as if gospel that there were a spike of cases on the Island.Malmesbury said:On the subject of spikes in cases - a scary looking graphics of hotspots was posted in the other thread.
So I looked at the Pillar 1 data. See below. I have coloured any days where more than 5 cases occurred to make them stand out.
Isle of Wight is an obvious tell that the story was rubbish - there has been a serious lack of cases. I have a feeling that it got included in the story because of this - https://www.countypress.co.uk/news/18549892.coronavirus-university-research-names-isle-wight-potential-second-wave-hotspot which is saying, essentially, that *if* COVID took off there, it would be bad.
It is interesting, as well, to see how Leicester stands out. Rather validates the idea that a lock down was ordered *before* things got out of hand again - indications over the last couple of weeks, and then definite changes last week.
Doncaster, Derbyshire, Medway and several boroughs in West London look problematic though.
Stop reading the Daily Hate.0 -
Correlation between Leadership skills and General Election victories is questionable.BluestBlue said:
In your masterful evaluation of leadership skills over two decades, how many general election landslides did you win? Because you do come across a little bit like a film reviewer for the Scunthorpe Telegraph slagging off Martin Scorsese...Nigel_Foremain said:
I have been evaluating leadership skills for two decades. I can assure you that while she scores lower than you would want for an executive leader, she scores higher than Boris Johnson, by a long way. He is utterly hopeless, only those with no understanding of leadership ability would think otherwise.DavidL said:
She absolutely didn't. That was the problem. Her idea of leadership was to say nothing for a very long time and then announce things with no consultation, no consensus building, no allies and ultimately pretty much no followers.Nigel_Foremain said:
The worst PM since Lord North, and possibly well before is currently in office. TMay was bad, but she was a consummate professional compared to Johnson. She had some leadership ability, he has none.Philip_Thompson said:I think most former PMs have recognised their place and given space to their successors.
That the worst PM since Lord North hasn't perhaps shouldn't be a shock.
I still think the deal that she did with the EU was a good compromise, better than Boris's in some respect. But her leadership skills were such she could not deliver it. Selling ice cold water in the Sahara on a sunny day would be beyond that woman, it really would. She was awful. I hesitate to say worse than Brown (at least she did make her mind up eventually) but right up there with worst PMs of the last 100 years or so.
I'd have rated Churchill's leadership skills higher in 1945 than they were in 1951 (and his successes in the 1939-1945 timeframe considerable stronger than the 1951-1955 timeframe), but under your measurement, he would rate as one of the worst PMs this century.0 -
Just back from Morrisons. Lady on the till coughing her guts up. Hmm.
And update on the £6.75 half bottle of scotch scenario. On the label it says "at least 3 years old" and then "manufactured in Scotland". And that's pretty much it.
Not keen on that "manufactured" word. It doesn't sound quite right for a drink.0
