politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s time to take a Biden landslide seriously
Comments
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Apologies - too subtle for me!SandyRentool said:
Sorry, I was being ironic.Northern_Al said:
I rarely disagree with you, but on this I do. I don't remember Jezza doing anything as clear as this, but even if he did the problem is that because of his baggage few people really believed his patriotism.SandyRentool said:
No different to Jezza.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Starmer's video is very impressive. I posted yesterday on his plans to win back the Red Wall, and said patriotism without nationalism would be a part of it. It's a long journey, but this is an impressive start.0 -
I think, as the Sky polling expert has just said, Boris's recent announcements have been popular as is his optimism and the polling should see a substantial move to him if it succeeds, but less so if it goes wrong
I do not see anyone on thos forum, Scott included, who would disagree with this polling expert0 -
@Mysticrose
Hi Mystic
I addressed a question to you towards the end of the previous thread about virus cases in Gloucestershire. Since I live close to Cheltenham it is a matter of importance as well as interest to me.
Can you reply?
Thanks
PtP0 -
Why?Mysticrose said:Absolute disaster emerging in the US. The UK is likely now heading in a similar direction.
This isn't the beach panic again, is it?
We've been having episodes of hysteria over the disaster potential of sunbathing since April. It has made no difference to anything.
Not sure if opening the pubs and restaurants will finally tip the situation over the edge, but I think the Government is right to roll the dice. The alternative is to be too frightened to do anything and stay in limbo until a vaccine turns up, which might be forever. That's not sustainable.3 -
I have to say, I've always been pretty fortunate that except for a brief period when Aidan Burley was my MP, I've always had MPs I could respect. Simon Thomas,* Mark Williams, Mark Harper, and now Amanda Milling.SandyRentool said:
Count yourself lucky. I've got Philip Davies.Fysics_Teacher said:I have Steve Baker as my MP.
I do not want to have to vote for him again.
The irony being I don't think I ever voted for any of them apart from Milling.
*yes, I know, but it only emerged later and he was a good MP at the time.0 -
I think he is very much hard done by. He is no Francois.Dura_Ace said:
Steve "Brexit Hardman" Baker is the only tory I have any time for at all. I still would not vote for the fucker at gun point though.Fysics_Teacher said:I have Steve Baker as my MP.
I do not want to have to vote for him again.0 -
You should worry: I've got Priti Patel. Wasn't keen on the Labour candidate last time, but I knew and rather liked his 2017 predecessor. The Green, a local councillor's, a determined chap as well.Fysics_Teacher said:I have Steve Baker as my MP.
I do not want to have to vote for him again.0 -
He has the same problem as Trump in that regard.Big_G_NorthWales said:I think, as the Sky polling experts has just, said Boris's recent announcements have been popular as is his optimism and the polling should see a substantial move to him if it succeeds, but less so if it goes wrong
I do not see anyone on thos forum, Scott included, who would disagree with this polling expert
You can't troll reality. The virus doesn't care how clever or witty your speech is.
If there is another spike, BoZo will suffer. If the schools don't open, BoZo will suffer.
And Brexit rumbles on. If Nissan closes, BoZo will struggle to spin that as good news.
If the chunnel shudders to a halt, a cheery speech will not help.
The first consignment of chlorine chicken will not help his numbers.5 -
Trump is about 2/1 on for Texas. That's too short although I would still make him favorite - 6/4 on say?edmundintokyo said:
If I've got this right you can get him below 150 without Georgia (or alternatively without NC), as long as Biden gets Texas:David Herdson said:Polls released this week have him trailing in Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Arizona, N Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida, Georgia – and Texas.... Both Betfair (fixed odds) and Paddy Power are offering 6/1 that Trump will win between 101-150 Electoral College votes, which is exactly where he’d end up if he lost the above nine states.
https://www.270towin.com/maps/zLgOb
I had a go at doing it without Texas but it's tough:
https://www.270towin.com/maps/9m9Z0
So Trump below 150 is pretty near equivalent to "Biden wins TX".0 -
I wonder if Trump could be like the 2015 Liberal Democrats.
Everyone sees what the polls says but nobody can quite believe that its actually going to happen. The seat range of 10-19 was punted as a long shot bet for a disastrous night for the Lib Dems based upon the polls . . . but in the end it was a losing bet though not as everyone expected it would lose because they got more than 19. They managed to do even worse than the longshot failure punted.
I wonder if Trump could surprise even more on the downside than we're thinking.2 -
...and put into dramatic focus earlier in the week when we were starkly reminded how utterly useless his main rival would have been.ydoethur said:
We can't know, because he's come to the leadership in the middle of a huge crisis. There's very little scope for him to develop policy at this moment as it may be obsolete in five months. One of Cameron's problems was that having come up with a policy mix ('share the proceeds of growth') he was left floundering when the bad times hit and he needed to change it all.CorrectHorseBattery said:So what is Starmerism?
It seems to be the 2017 manifesto with the foreign policy aims of Ed mixed with the relative unity of Blair with the robustness of Brown
What does Starmer need to do, therefore?
1) Provide a clear, consistent break with Corbyn, as Corbyn was a key part of the problem.
2) Draw a line under the saga of Labour's Brexit policy (which let it not be forgotten, he was directly responsible for)
3) Provide probing, intelligent opposition to make sure the government is held to account.
4) Make sure he cannot be accused of making political capital out of the worst public health crisis in a hundred years
5) Keep current Labour voters on board while ensuring he can reach out to non-voters.
6) Look, sound and behave like a plausible Prime Minister - calm, dignified, unruffled and sensible.
So how's he done so far?
1) Long Bailey. Antisemitism. Praise for the Armed Forces. Mentions of national pride. Job done.
2) We've left. End of conversation. Job also done.
3) Performances in PMQs and with the media have generally been impressive. Johnson has been forced to get better quick (although he has) and the media are giving him a fair hearing. Comments are sensible and measured. Most people will have agreed with his assessments of Cummings and Jenrick, but he did not call for their resignation.
4) Has offered to help the government, and supported many key measures. Admittedly, the offers have not been gratefully received, but he's doing the right thing and I think people appreciate that. He (and Sturgeon for the matter of that) were pitch perfect in their response to the news of Johnson's illness.
5) Knelt for BLM protests, but condemned the statue toppling by saying there is a right way and a wrong way to protest (at the same time noting he would personally prefer the statue to have been moved).
6) The rest feed into this.
He's still behind Johnson on leader ratings. No shit, he's not the PM and Johnson is. The incumbent always has an advantage. But he's narrowed the gap substantially and if he continues like this, people will be willing to give him a hearing. That's all he can do.
So far, so impressive. Again, not to say he will win - formidable barriers face him - but he is what Labour so desperately needed after Corbyn.1 -
A good MP you've got.OldKingCole said:
You should worry: I've got Priti Patel. Wasn't;t keen on the Labour canbdidate last time, but I knew and rather liked his 2017 predecessor. The Green, a local councillor's, a determined chap as well.Fysics_Teacher said:I have Steve Baker as my MP.
I do not want to have to vote for him again.
0 -
David's bet is already in to 4/1
There is perhaps more money to be made identifying the longshot Biden states?0 -
The LDs got 8% in 2015, even now the US poll average has Trump over 40%Philip_Thompson said:I wonder if Trump could be like the 2015 Liberal Democrats.
Everyone sees what the polls says but nobody can quite believe that its actually going to happen. The seat range of 10-19 was punted as a long shot bet for a disastrous night for the Lib Dems based upon the polls . . . but in the end it was a losing bet though not as everyone expected it would lose because they got more than 19. They managed to do even worse than the longshot failure punted.
I wonder if Trump could surprise even more on the downside than we're thinking.0 -
That bad?noneoftheabove said:
I think he is very much hard done by. He is no Francois.Dura_Ace said:
Steve "Brexit Hardman" Baker is the only tory I have any time for at all. I still would not vote for the fucker at gun point though.Fysics_Teacher said:I have Steve Baker as my MP.
I do not want to have to vote for him again.0 -
I remember when there was a map going around showing huge spikes of cases in Gloucestershire, which people blamed on Cheltenham.Peter_the_Punter said:@Mysticrose
Hi Mystic
I addressed a question to you towards the end of the previous thread about virus cases in Gloucestershire. Since I live close to Cheltenham it is a matter of importance as well as interest to me.
Can you reply?
Thanks
PtP
It ended abruptly when I pointed out it was a population map, not a map of Covid cases, and not a very accurate one at that (it claimed Newent had 10,000 inhabitants when the total cannot be more than 8,000 on the most generous of estimates).
Again, the fallacy of proof when it comes to internet conspiracy theories.0 -
And in a different view none of that happensScott_xP said:
He has the same problem as Trump in that regard.Big_G_NorthWales said:I think, as the Sky polling experts has just, said Boris's recent announcements have been popular as is his optimism and the polling should see a substantial move to him if it succeeds, but less so if it goes wrong
I do not see anyone on thos forum, Scott included, who would disagree with this polling expert
You can't troll reality. The virus doesn't care how clever or witty your speech is.
If there is another spike, BoZo will suffer. If the schools don't open, BoZo will suffer.
And Brexit rumbles on. If Nissan closes, BoZo will struggle to spin that as good news.
If the chunnel shudders to a halt, a cheery speech will not help.
The first consignment of chlorine chicken will not help his numbers.0 -
A landslide for Biden in the modern sense (that is, somewhere around 350-400 electoral votes) is certainly possible. A landslide in the more classical sense (an FDR/Nixon/Reagan sweep of all but one or two states)? No, America is way too polarized for anything approaching that.2
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As far as I can remember he was always polite and calm through the Brexit process. Not many politicians can say that, especially amongst those with strong and extreme positions (on both no deal and remain sides).IanB2 said:
That bad?noneoftheabove said:
I think he is very much hard done by. He is no Francois.Dura_Ace said:
Steve "Brexit Hardman" Baker is the only tory I have any time for at all. I still would not vote for the fucker at gun point though.Fysics_Teacher said:I have Steve Baker as my MP.
I do not want to have to vote for him again.0 -
Spot on BigG. If it does go wrong, what many regard on here as fluff, Jenrick, Cummings etc., will come back to bite Boris hard.Big_G_NorthWales said:I think, as the Sky polling expert has just said, Boris's recent announcements have been popular as is his optimism and the polling should see a substantial move to him if it succeeds, but less so if it goes wrong
I do not see anyone on thos forum, Scott included, who would disagree with this polling expert0 -
Well if you live where I do in Winchcombe, about five miles from the racecourse, it feels very safe. The only virus case I know of is my wife and she picked it up in London!ydoethur said:
I remember when there was a map going around showing huge spikes of cases in Gloucestershire, which people blamed on Cheltenham.Peter_the_Punter said:@Mysticrose
Hi Mystic
I addressed a question to you towards the end of the previous thread about virus cases in Gloucestershire. Since I live close to Cheltenham it is a matter of importance as well as interest to me.
Can you reply?
Thanks
PtP
It ended abruptly when I pointed out it was a population map, not a map of Covid cases, and not a very accurate one at that (it claimed Newent had 10,000 inhabitants when the total cannot be more than 8,000 on the most generous of estimates).
Again, the fallacy of proof when it comes to internet conspiracy theories.
Cheltenham itself feels fine too, but I wondered if someone knew something I didn't.1 -
As Mr Ed points out the polling is difficult and unreliable. I think that means the range of outcomes is very wide, from Trump win to Biden complete landslide. Trump opponents should treat it as a 50/50 matchup throughout.Philip_Thompson said:I wonder if Trump could be like the 2015 Liberal Democrats.
Everyone sees what the polls says but nobody can quite believe that its actually going to happen. The seat range of 10-19 was punted as a long shot bet for a disastrous night for the Lib Dems based upon the polls . . . but in the end it was a losing bet though not as everyone expected it would lose because they got more than 19. They managed to do even worse than the longshot failure punted.
I wonder if Trump could surprise even more on the downside than we're thinking.2 -
Yes.Mexicanpete said:...and put into dramatic focus earlier in the week when we were starkly reminded how utterly useless his main rival would have been.
One of the great advantages Starmer has is just how useless the Corbynites are.
Long-Bailey, nuff said. Pidcock, heaven help us all. Cat Smith, even worse. Ian Lavery, still posturing with the integrity and ability of an idiot. Burgon, Sultana, Abbott, O'Mara...
About the only really formidable Corbynite MPs are Macdonnell and Trickett, who are both around 70 and at the end of their careers. Macdonnell is also far from well, of course. Corbyn himself is also elderly. None of the three are likely to be in Parliament after the next election.
That means he can present Corbynism as a spasm. An emotional spasm, to quote Labour's most potent actual Socialist. It is a phase that has passed and he will say, will not be returning.
Of course, he is still much more left wing than Blair, as is the party he leads. But how often has the left lost because people dislike their policies, contrasted with people's disdain for their leadership?3 -
And you ranting and raving about "BoZo" does what exactly?Scott_xP said:
He has the same problem as Trump in that regard.Big_G_NorthWales said:I think, as the Sky polling experts has just, said Boris's recent announcements have been popular as is his optimism and the polling should see a substantial move to him if it succeeds, but less so if it goes wrong
I do not see anyone on thos forum, Scott included, who would disagree with this polling expert
You can't troll reality. The virus doesn't care how clever or witty your speech is.
If there is another spike, BoZo will suffer. If the schools don't open, BoZo will suffer.
And Brexit rumbles on. If Nissan closes, BoZo will struggle to spin that as good news.
If the chunnel shudders to a halt, a cheery speech will not help.
The first consignment of chlorine chicken will not help his numbers.
Reality is Boris is nothing like Trump and has done a great job in squashing the virus in this country contrasted with what's happening in America. The UK and USA are not the same whatsoever and any pretensions of you trying to claim about "reality" is preposterous nonsense.0 -
Au contraire. The first consignment of cheap chicken will help his numbers. A subsequent and associated outbreak of salmonella will however, send them crashing again.Scott_xP said:
He has the same problem as Trump in that regard.Big_G_NorthWales said:I think, as the Sky polling experts has just, said Boris's recent announcements have been popular as is his optimism and the polling should see a substantial move to him if it succeeds, but less so if it goes wrong
I do not see anyone on thos forum, Scott included, who would disagree with this polling expert
You can't troll reality. The virus doesn't care how clever or witty your speech is.
If there is another spike, BoZo will suffer. If the schools don't open, BoZo will suffer.
And Brexit rumbles on. If Nissan closes, BoZo will struggle to spin that as good news.
If the chunnel shudders to a halt, a cheery speech will not help.
The first consignment of chlorine chicken will not help his numbers.0 -
Since the wave off infection is happening later in the US than here then there is now more testing available, so they will identify more positive cases and appear to have a lower death rate for that reason alone. It also means they are identifying cases beefier they are hospitalised, and so there's a greater lag between an increase in cases and an increase in deaths - plus, with advances like the dexamethasone treatment the death rate should now be lower.DavidL said:The US already has a much worse infection rate than us although a lower death rate. I wonder if the excess mortality figures might show an even worse figure.
0 -
But still won't render the Jenrick story unnewsworthyydoethur said:
Johnson's bricking it.Scott_xP said:
Hey, we are currently mired in scandal about property development. What should we do?Luckyguy1983 said:I am not convinced either of 'build build build' (depending what is meant by that exhortation I suppose) or of the need for a stimulus package. We need to be very careful with both. Hopefully the lessons from Brown's pointless VAT reduction have been noted.
Make a speech about building...1 -
He correctly points out that the *state* polling can be a bit wonky. However the national polling has tended to be pretty good, and the state polling is currently pretty much the only favourable data point for Trump, since it's showing him doing several points better than in the swing states than nationally.noneoftheabove said:
As Mr Ed points out the polling is difficult and unreliable. I think that means the range of outcomes is very wide, from Trump win to Biden complete landslide. Trump opponents should treat it as a 50/50 matchup throughout.Philip_Thompson said:I wonder if Trump could be like the 2015 Liberal Democrats.
Everyone sees what the polls says but nobody can quite believe that its actually going to happen. The seat range of 10-19 was punted as a long shot bet for a disastrous night for the Lib Dems based upon the polls . . . but in the end it was a losing bet though not as everyone expected it would lose because they got more than 19. They managed to do even worse than the longshot failure punted.
I wonder if Trump could surprise even more on the downside than we're thinking.
I don't think it's really plausible that Trump has a bigger electoral college advantage than the few points we're seeing in the state polls as compared to the national ones - the votes have to pop up somewhere.0 -
People should be free to vote for whichever option suits them best with every vote counting equally. But as we don't have a fair voting system the question is how your vote cam do the most damage to the Tories...Fysics_Teacher said:
I’m not sure I’d go as far as voting Labour, but I am much more likely to abstain (otherwise known as voting Lib Dem).CorrectHorseBattery said:
Welcome back, I’m proud that we can start to win voters like you back.Fysics_Teacher said:
Good: and I say that as someone who voted for Johnson last time.ydoethur said:
I'm interested. Not saying I will definitely vote for him, but I will listen to what he has to say when an election comes and consider voting for it. And as an active abstainer last time, I am perhaps the biggest prize of all from Labour's point of view.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I've been saying, he'll win more votes than Corbyn just because he's not Corbyn.ydoethur said:
I do love the contrast with his predecessor.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Did Corbyn ever record a message for Armed Forces' Day? If so I would be interested to see it.
But more than that, somebody this calm, intelligent and thoughtful is somebody who, even I disagree with them politically, I can both imagine as PM and accept them as PM. With Corbyn, I just could not.
There is unlikely to be a giant 'stop Labour' vote for Johnson or his successor to bank.
At the 2015 election is was expecting a Labour win, and was pretty relaxed about it, even if I didn’t vote for it: Milband was a grown-up.
I was not so sanguine at the next two: May and even more Johnson were not my first choice as PMs, but Corbyn and his team were genuinely frightening.
With SKS in charge I’m no longer afraid of a Labour government. This means I don’t have to vote for my local MP who is a pilock.0 -
If 43,000 dead is a "great job" I'd hate to see him fuck it up.Philip_Thompson said:
And you ranting and raving about "BoZo" does what exactly?Scott_xP said:
He has the same problem as Trump in that regard.Big_G_NorthWales said:I think, as the Sky polling experts has just, said Boris's recent announcements have been popular as is his optimism and the polling should see a substantial move to him if it succeeds, but less so if it goes wrong
I do not see anyone on thos forum, Scott included, who would disagree with this polling expert
You can't troll reality. The virus doesn't care how clever or witty your speech is.
If there is another spike, BoZo will suffer. If the schools don't open, BoZo will suffer.
And Brexit rumbles on. If Nissan closes, BoZo will struggle to spin that as good news.
If the chunnel shudders to a halt, a cheery speech will not help.
The first consignment of chlorine chicken will not help his numbers.
Reality is Boris is nothing like Trump and has done a great job in squashing the virus in this country contrasted with what's happening in America. The UK and USA are not the same whatsoever and any pretensions of you trying to claim about "reality" is preposterous nonsense.5 -
Although the Jenrick story provides guidance as to how to maximise your use of the forthcoming announcement.IanB2 said:
But still won't render the Jenrick story unnewsworthyydoethur said:
Johnson's bricking it.Scott_xP said:
Hey, we are currently mired in scandal about property development. What should we do?Luckyguy1983 said:I am not convinced either of 'build build build' (depending what is meant by that exhortation I suppose) or of the need for a stimulus package. We need to be very careful with both. Hopefully the lessons from Brown's pointless VAT reduction have been noted.
Make a speech about building...0 -
Arguably we've come off worst in Europe, due in at least a small part to a nationalistic refusal to co-operate with the EU.Dura_Ace said:
If 43,000 dead is a "great job" I'd hate to see him fuck it up.Philip_Thompson said:
And you ranting and raving about "BoZo" does what exactly?Scott_xP said:
He has the same problem as Trump in that regard.Big_G_NorthWales said:I think, as the Sky polling experts has just, said Boris's recent announcements have been popular as is his optimism and the polling should see a substantial move to him if it succeeds, but less so if it goes wrong
I do not see anyone on thos forum, Scott included, who would disagree with this polling expert
You can't troll reality. The virus doesn't care how clever or witty your speech is.
If there is another spike, BoZo will suffer. If the schools don't open, BoZo will suffer.
And Brexit rumbles on. If Nissan closes, BoZo will struggle to spin that as good news.
If the chunnel shudders to a halt, a cheery speech will not help.
The first consignment of chlorine chicken will not help his numbers.
Reality is Boris is nothing like Trump and has done a great job in squashing the virus in this country contrasted with what's happening in America. The UK and USA are not the same whatsoever and any pretensions of you trying to claim about "reality" is preposterous nonsense.1 -
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Off topic. The Wirecard collapse had passed me by but I've had an email to say that my two euro-denominated FairFX cards have been suspended. If I have interpreted the jargon correctly it sounds as though the funds are protected.
Anyone care to hazard a guess as to how long the suspension might last - a week, a month, a year?
Any comment on the situation from those in the finance industry would be much appreciated0 -
This is all perfectly correct but some of the numbers still beggar belief. I suspect they are classifying a lot of Covid deaths as pneumonia, flu, lung infections and the like, probably for political reasons.LostPassword said:
Since the wave off infection is happening later in the US than here then there is now more testing available, so they will identify more positive cases and appear to have a lower death rate for that reason alone. It also means they are identifying cases beefier they are hospitalised, and so there's a greater lag between an increase in cases and an increase in deaths - plus, with advances like the dexamethasone treatment the death rate should now be lower.DavidL said:The US already has a much worse infection rate than us although a lower death rate. I wonder if the excess mortality figures might show an even worse figure.
It certainly makes sense to look at excess deaths to check on the possibility.2 -
My view on a Johnson victory is very simple. If the country is doing well his optimism and fun will mean he wins again.
If it’s in a mess, he won’t.0 -
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On topic, I backed Trump at under 200 ECVs at average odds of 8/3 with Paddypower 2 weeks ago.
I agree there's value there and a landslide (in the electoral college) is possible.0 -
IIRC his 1990 Act didn't help. Most people I know who have any knowledge of the Care sector say it's been undervalued for years.HYUFD said:0 -
If you check out excess deaths I think you have to conclude the true number is far greater.Dura_Ace said:
If 43,000 dead is a "great job" I'd hate to see him fuck it up.Philip_Thompson said:
And you ranting and raving about "BoZo" does what exactly?Scott_xP said:
He has the same problem as Trump in that regard.Big_G_NorthWales said:I think, as the Sky polling experts has just, said Boris's recent announcements have been popular as is his optimism and the polling should see a substantial move to him if it succeeds, but less so if it goes wrong
I do not see anyone on thos forum, Scott included, who would disagree with this polling expert
You can't troll reality. The virus doesn't care how clever or witty your speech is.
If there is another spike, BoZo will suffer. If the schools don't open, BoZo will suffer.
And Brexit rumbles on. If Nissan closes, BoZo will struggle to spin that as good news.
If the chunnel shudders to a halt, a cheery speech will not help.
The first consignment of chlorine chicken will not help his numbers.
Reality is Boris is nothing like Trump and has done a great job in squashing the virus in this country contrasted with what's happening in America. The UK and USA are not the same whatsoever and any pretensions of you trying to claim about "reality" is preposterous nonsense.0 -
He will get 40% of the vote regardless because Culture Wars.Philip_Thompson said:I wonder if Trump could be like the 2015 Liberal Democrats.
Everyone sees what the polls says but nobody can quite believe that its actually going to happen. The seat range of 10-19 was punted as a long shot bet for a disastrous night for the Lib Dems based upon the polls . . . but in the end it was a losing bet though not as everyone expected it would lose because they got more than 19. They managed to do even worse than the longshot failure punted.
I wonder if Trump could surprise even more on the downside than we're thinking.
But, he might lose the electoral college by a huge margin.1 -
With a novel pandemic like this a fuck up would be hundreds of thousands or more dead.Dura_Ace said:
If 43,000 dead is a "great job" I'd hate to see him fuck it up.Philip_Thompson said:
And you ranting and raving about "BoZo" does what exactly?Scott_xP said:
He has the same problem as Trump in that regard.Big_G_NorthWales said:I think, as the Sky polling experts has just, said Boris's recent announcements have been popular as is his optimism and the polling should see a substantial move to him if it succeeds, but less so if it goes wrong
I do not see anyone on thos forum, Scott included, who would disagree with this polling expert
You can't troll reality. The virus doesn't care how clever or witty your speech is.
If there is another spike, BoZo will suffer. If the schools don't open, BoZo will suffer.
And Brexit rumbles on. If Nissan closes, BoZo will struggle to spin that as good news.
If the chunnel shudders to a halt, a cheery speech will not help.
The first consignment of chlorine chicken will not help his numbers.
Reality is Boris is nothing like Trump and has done a great job in squashing the virus in this country contrasted with what's happening in America. The UK and USA are not the same whatsoever and any pretensions of you trying to claim about "reality" is preposterous nonsense.
43,000 dead isn't pleasant by any means but is comparable to eg the Hong Kong Flu.0 -
Surely a 1990 Act would have been Thatcher?OldKingCole said:
IIRC his 1990 Act didn't help. Most people I know who have any knowledge of the Care sector say it's been undervalued for years.HYUFD said:
Or did it come within the purview of the Treasury?0 -
That is not a like for like comparison though is it?HYUFD said:
The LDs got 8% in 2015, even now the US poll average has Trump over 40%Philip_Thompson said:I wonder if Trump could be like the 2015 Liberal Democrats.
Everyone sees what the polls says but nobody can quite believe that its actually going to happen. The seat range of 10-19 was punted as a long shot bet for a disastrous night for the Lib Dems based upon the polls . . . but in the end it was a losing bet though not as everyone expected it would lose because they got more than 19. They managed to do even worse than the longshot failure punted.
I wonder if Trump could surprise even more on the downside than we're thinking.
Both use fptp which distorts results very badly and differently according to conditions in each election boundaries and spread of voters. So for instance the LDs got seats with 8%. If trump were on 8% he would get no electoral college votes at all. Don't know the point where he goes to zero but suspect it is quite a high percentage. The sort of percentage that the LDs would win a bundle of seats.
Consequently the comparison is utterly meaningless. It also says an awful lot about fptp both sides of the pond.1 -
Any "theory" yet on why Trump cancelled his weekend in New Jersey? To keep order in the federal capital seems like a lie, unless he is planning something completely batsh*t and Albert Pike-related.
They may be considering how to respond to the recent loss of territory to General Virus. Can Trump pivot on masks and show leadership?
But more likely they are discussing the Mary book, with regard to which they have asked the judge in Dutchess to act quickly, fearing it will soon be widely available. That's what happened with the Bolton book which was published by the same house, Simon and Schuster.
Note the assertion that "copies may be distributed to booksellers and media reviewers any day now". They are pooping themselves.
One has to marvel at how the lawyers plead that extreme urgency is required, shortly after they submitted the application to the wrong court by accident. And that was after they had to refile because they didn't pay the $45 court fee.
Sources tell me the book presents facts that introduce a new theme concerning Trump's psychohistory which, when it is revealed, will destroy the possibility of a second term...to put it mildly.
Talking of New Jersey, yesterday I learnt that Kellyanne Conway is the granddaughter of mobster Jimmy "The Brute" DiNatale. She probably gets on well with Jared Kushner whose father Charles has done time for illegal campaign contributions and witness tampering. Trump uses "killer" as a term of praise.0 -
Great post.ydoethur said:
We can't know, because he's come to the leadership in the middle of a huge crisis. There's very little scope for him to develop policy at this moment as it may be obsolete in five months. One of Cameron's problems was that having come up with a policy mix ('share the proceeds of growth') he was left floundering when the bad times hit and he needed to change it all.CorrectHorseBattery said:So what is Starmerism?
It seems to be the 2017 manifesto with the foreign policy aims of Ed mixed with the relative unity of Blair with the robustness of Brown
What does Starmer need to do, therefore?
1) Provide a clear, consistent break with Corbyn, as Corbyn was a key part of the problem.
2) Draw a line under the saga of Labour's Brexit policy (which let it not be forgotten, he was directly responsible for)
3) Provide probing, intelligent opposition to make sure the government is held to account.
4) Make sure he cannot be accused of making political capital out of the worst public health crisis in a hundred years
5) Keep current Labour voters on board while ensuring he can reach out to non-voters.
6) Look, sound and behave like a plausible Prime Minister - calm, dignified, unruffled and sensible.
So how's he done so far?
1) Long Bailey. Antisemitism. Praise for the Armed Forces. Mentions of national pride. Job done.
2) We've left. End of conversation. Job also done.
3) Performances in PMQs and with the media have generally been impressive. Johnson has been forced to get better quick (although he has) and the media are giving him a fair hearing. Comments are sensible and measured. Most people will have agreed with his assessments of Cummings and Jenrick, but he did not call for their resignation.
4) Has offered to help the government, and supported many key measures. Admittedly, the offers have not been gratefully received, but he's doing the right thing and I think people appreciate that. He (and Sturgeon for the matter of that) were pitch perfect in their response to the news of Johnson's illness.
5) Knelt for BLM protests, but condemned the statue toppling by saying there is a right way and a wrong way to protest (at the same time noting he would personally prefer the statue to have been moved).
6) The rest feed into this.
He's still behind Johnson on leader ratings. No shit, he's not the PM and Johnson is. The incumbent always has an advantage. But he's narrowed the gap substantially and if he continues like this, people will be willing to give him a hearing. That's all he can do.
So far, so impressive. Again, not to say he will win - formidable barriers face him - but he is what Labour so desperately needed after Corbyn.0 -
-
It might be the case that low tax laissez-faire capitalist politics only really works electorally in high-growth economies.Black_Rook said:
Makes complete sense to move into Labour territory on economics. Should help hold onto their new supporters, and there's nowhere else for the low tax, laissez-faire capitalist vote to go.CorrectHorseBattery said:
The political centre of the country is a little to the left of centre economically and a little to the right of centre on social issues, although that's arguably a crude way of representing the present situation.
Not anemic or schlerotic ones.0 -
I do agree though. "Bozo" casts veague negatives upon his character. Why bother when "liar" is punchier and a fact, or my preferred "Shagger". Difficicult to object to either when he was sacked for lying about an affair...Dura_Ace said:
If 43,000 dead is a "great job" I'd hate to see him fuck it up.Philip_Thompson said:
And you ranting and raving about "BoZo" does what exactly?Scott_xP said:
He has the same problem as Trump in that regard.Big_G_NorthWales said:I think, as the Sky polling experts has just, said Boris's recent announcements have been popular as is his optimism and the polling should see a substantial move to him if it succeeds, but less so if it goes wrong
I do not see anyone on thos forum, Scott included, who would disagree with this polling expert
You can't troll reality. The virus doesn't care how clever or witty your speech is.
If there is another spike, BoZo will suffer. If the schools don't open, BoZo will suffer.
And Brexit rumbles on. If Nissan closes, BoZo will struggle to spin that as good news.
If the chunnel shudders to a halt, a cheery speech will not help.
The first consignment of chlorine chicken will not help his numbers.
Reality is Boris is nothing like Trump and has done a great job in squashing the virus in this country contrasted with what's happening in America. The UK and USA are not the same whatsoever and any pretensions of you trying to claim about "reality" is preposterous nonsense.0 -
As Bill Gates remarked a while back, when all the exam papers are in and finally marked, it is unlikely many countries will get an A+. Early indications are that NZ and Vietnam will be top of the class. The UK seems bound for mid-table.Philip_Thompson said:
With a novel pandemic like this a fuck up would be hundreds of thousands or more dead.Dura_Ace said:
If 43,000 dead is a "great job" I'd hate to see him fuck it up.Philip_Thompson said:
And you ranting and raving about "BoZo" does what exactly?Scott_xP said:
He has the same problem as Trump in that regard.Big_G_NorthWales said:I think, as the Sky polling experts has just, said Boris's recent announcements have been popular as is his optimism and the polling should see a substantial move to him if it succeeds, but less so if it goes wrong
I do not see anyone on thos forum, Scott included, who would disagree with this polling expert
You can't troll reality. The virus doesn't care how clever or witty your speech is.
If there is another spike, BoZo will suffer. If the schools don't open, BoZo will suffer.
And Brexit rumbles on. If Nissan closes, BoZo will struggle to spin that as good news.
If the chunnel shudders to a halt, a cheery speech will not help.
The first consignment of chlorine chicken will not help his numbers.
Reality is Boris is nothing like Trump and has done a great job in squashing the virus in this country contrasted with what's happening in America. The UK and USA are not the same whatsoever and any pretensions of you trying to claim about "reality" is preposterous nonsense.
43,000 dead isn't pleasant by any means but is comparable to eg the Hong Kong Flu.
The US is heading for a fail.1 -
Indeed, like how the LDs got 8% of the vote but certainly not 8% of the seats in 2015.Casino_Royale said:
He will get 40% of the vote regardless because Culture Wars.Philip_Thompson said:I wonder if Trump could be like the 2015 Liberal Democrats.
Everyone sees what the polls says but nobody can quite believe that its actually going to happen. The seat range of 10-19 was punted as a long shot bet for a disastrous night for the Lib Dems based upon the polls . . . but in the end it was a losing bet though not as everyone expected it would lose because they got more than 19. They managed to do even worse than the longshot failure punted.
I wonder if Trump could surprise even more on the downside than we're thinking.
But, he might lose the electoral college by a huge margin.0 -
This explains so much.Philip_Thompson said:
A good MP you've got.OldKingCole said:
You should worry: I've got Priti Patel. Wasn't;t keen on the Labour canbdidate last time, but I knew and rather liked his 2017 predecessor. The Green, a local councillor's, a determined chap as well.Fysics_Teacher said:I have Steve Baker as my MP.
I do not want to have to vote for him again.0 -
This links to a very interesting article on respiratory viruses; the rhinoviruses seem to have been remarkably resilient to the effects of the lockdown:
https://twitter.com/MackayIM/status/12767552484854865920 -
Amazing how the Indy, that published the Maxine Peake story, seems to be implying that the rampant antisemitism in the party that Starmer is forced to confront was somehow a trap laid by the Tories. This issue goes well beyond the Labour Party, the media being one such place.Scott_xP said:1 -
You mean Agent Jez wasn't a Tory infiltrator?brokenwheel said:
Amazing how the Indy, that published the Maxine Peake story, seems to be implying that the rampant antisemitism in the party that Starmer is forced to confront was somehow a trap laid by the Tories.Scott_xP said:0 -
As for the other half of Cummings’ label, Starmer stubbornly refuses to play the Remainer part Johnson hoped and expected he would. Starmer has declined to join the SNP, Liberal Democrats, Scottish and Welsh governments and the Scottish Labour Party in calling for an extension to the transitional period beyond 31 December.0
-
Rhinoviruses are ok though, personally happy to live with most of those.Nigelb said:This links to a very interesting article on respiratory viruses; the rhinoviruses seem to have been remarkably resilient to the effects of the lockdown:
https://twitter.com/MackayIM/status/12767552484854865920 -
It wasn't his act 29 June 1990 was the date it become law, 28th November 1990 is when he became PM.OldKingCole said:
IIRC his 1990 Act didn't help. Most people I know who have any knowledge of the Care sector say it's been undervalued for years.HYUFD said:0 -
Regards the deal with the EU, what deal would Johnson have to bring back that would make his voters very angry? I assume some kind of locked in deal? How popular is No Deal these days?0
-
If the minute we can travel safely again Vietnam is not crawling with pandemic experts to find out how the bloody hell they managed so well despite every disadvantage of climate, geography, economy, demography and politics, then any enquiry will be meaningless.Peter_the_Punter said:
As Bill Gates remarked a while back, when all the exam papers are in and finally marked, it is unlikely many countries will get an A+. Early indications are that NZ and Vietnam will be top of the class. The UK seems bound for mid-table.Philip_Thompson said:
With a novel pandemic like this a fuck up would be hundreds of thousands or more dead.Dura_Ace said:
If 43,000 dead is a "great job" I'd hate to see him fuck it up.Philip_Thompson said:
And you ranting and raving about "BoZo" does what exactly?Scott_xP said:
He has the same problem as Trump in that regard.Big_G_NorthWales said:I think, as the Sky polling experts has just, said Boris's recent announcements have been popular as is his optimism and the polling should see a substantial move to him if it succeeds, but less so if it goes wrong
I do not see anyone on thos forum, Scott included, who would disagree with this polling expert
You can't troll reality. The virus doesn't care how clever or witty your speech is.
If there is another spike, BoZo will suffer. If the schools don't open, BoZo will suffer.
And Brexit rumbles on. If Nissan closes, BoZo will struggle to spin that as good news.
If the chunnel shudders to a halt, a cheery speech will not help.
The first consignment of chlorine chicken will not help his numbers.
Reality is Boris is nothing like Trump and has done a great job in squashing the virus in this country contrasted with what's happening in America. The UK and USA are not the same whatsoever and any pretensions of you trying to claim about "reality" is preposterous nonsense.
43,000 dead isn't pleasant by any means but is comparable to eg the Hong Kong Flu.
The US is heading for a fail.
That's not to downplay the achievements of New Zealand, or Taiwan, or South Korea, but they're islands (de facto if not de jure in South Korea's case). Vietnam is not.2 -
Great job , what are you on.Philip_Thompson said:
With a novel pandemic like this a fuck up would be hundreds of thousands or more dead.Dura_Ace said:
If 43,000 dead is a "great job" I'd hate to see him fuck it up.Philip_Thompson said:
And you ranting and raving about "BoZo" does what exactly?Scott_xP said:
He has the same problem as Trump in that regard.Big_G_NorthWales said:I think, as the Sky polling experts has just, said Boris's recent announcements have been popular as is his optimism and the polling should see a substantial move to him if it succeeds, but less so if it goes wrong
I do not see anyone on thos forum, Scott included, who would disagree with this polling expert
You can't troll reality. The virus doesn't care how clever or witty your speech is.
If there is another spike, BoZo will suffer. If the schools don't open, BoZo will suffer.
And Brexit rumbles on. If Nissan closes, BoZo will struggle to spin that as good news.
If the chunnel shudders to a halt, a cheery speech will not help.
The first consignment of chlorine chicken will not help his numbers.
Reality is Boris is nothing like Trump and has done a great job in squashing the virus in this country contrasted with what's happening in America. The UK and USA are not the same whatsoever and any pretensions of you trying to claim about "reality" is preposterous nonsense.
43,000 dead isn't pleasant by any means but is comparable to eg the Hong Kong Flu.
If you were commenting on New Zealand you might have a case.
However you seem blinded by believing Johnson , which one should always be careful of .
As his moral compass with the truth has a bad history.2 -
Doubtless someone will be along in a bit to blame this on BLM as well
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/12768070549346590730 -
0
-
And the UK? Depending on one's temperament, you could either say that the UK has a very low borderline pass (there hasn't been a systemic collapse) or a very high borderline fail (lots more lives could have been saved).Peter_the_Punter said:
As Bill Gates remarked a while back, when all the exam papers are in and finally marked, it is unlikely many countries will get an A+. Early indications are that NZ and Vietnam will be top of the class. The UK seems bound for mid-table.Philip_Thompson said:
With a novel pandemic like this a fuck up would be hundreds of thousands or more dead.Dura_Ace said:
If 43,000 dead is a "great job" I'd hate to see him fuck it up.Philip_Thompson said:
And you ranting and raving about "BoZo" does what exactly?Scott_xP said:
He has the same problem as Trump in that regard.Big_G_NorthWales said:I think, as the Sky polling experts has just, said Boris's recent announcements have been popular as is his optimism and the polling should see a substantial move to him if it succeeds, but less so if it goes wrong
I do not see anyone on thos forum, Scott included, who would disagree with this polling expert
You can't troll reality. The virus doesn't care how clever or witty your speech is.
If there is another spike, BoZo will suffer. If the schools don't open, BoZo will suffer.
And Brexit rumbles on. If Nissan closes, BoZo will struggle to spin that as good news.
If the chunnel shudders to a halt, a cheery speech will not help.
The first consignment of chlorine chicken will not help his numbers.
Reality is Boris is nothing like Trump and has done a great job in squashing the virus in this country contrasted with what's happening in America. The UK and USA are not the same whatsoever and any pretensions of you trying to claim about "reality" is preposterous nonsense.
43,000 dead isn't pleasant by any means but is comparable to eg the Hong Kong Flu.
The US is heading for a fail.0 -
If they want to hold on the Red Wall they need to be much more small c conservative instead of the woke-appeasing Blair-lite they are adopting at the moment. Putting a copy of that picture of Starmer and Rayner taking the knee through every letterbox in those seats would be a good strategy but doubt they have the sense to see it.Black_Rook said:
Makes complete sense to move into Labour territory on economics. Should help hold onto their new supporters, and there's nowhere else for the low tax, laissez-faire capitalist vote to go.CorrectHorseBattery said:
The political centre of the country is a little to the left of centre economically and a little to the right of centre on social issues, although that's arguably a crude way of representing the present situation.0 -
To be fair to Patel, she's 'the little girl with the curl'. When she's good, she can be very good, but when she's bad.....CorrectHorseBattery said:
This explains so much.Philip_Thompson said:
A good MP you've got.OldKingCole said:
You should worry: I've got Priti Patel. Wasn't;t keen on the Labour canbdidate last time, but I knew and rather liked his 2017 predecessor. The Green, a local councillor's, a determined chap as well.Fysics_Teacher said:I have Steve Baker as my MP.
I do not want to have to vote for him again.
And yes I know the other version of the rhyme reads 'when she'd bad, she's very popular!'
1 -
https://twitter.com/mattzarb/status/1276609561722404866
I really hope Matt will quietly fuck off now he's got no power on the front bench. With Milne, perhaps the worst Labour adviser ever.0 -
Yes.Pulpstar said:
Rhinoviruses are ok though, personally happy to live with most of those.Nigelb said:This links to a very interesting article on respiratory viruses; the rhinoviruses seem to have been remarkably resilient to the effects of the lockdown:
https://twitter.com/MackayIM/status/1276755248485486592
There are dozens of them though, so I’d rather not live with them all. And like all such viruses, they can still be very unpleasant for some individuals.
Worth reading the article in full, though.0 -
Fair enough; he was in the Govt. at the time, of course.eek said:
It wasn't his act 29 June 1990 was the date it become law, 28th November 1990 is when he became PM.OldKingCole said:
IIRC his 1990 Act didn't help. Most people I know who have any knowledge of the Care sector say it's been undervalued for years.HYUFD said:
0 -
Anything that locks us into following EU laws without having a say in them would be 100% unacceptable to me.CorrectHorseBattery said:Regards the deal with the EU, what deal would Johnson have to bring back that would make his voters very angry? I assume some kind of locked in deal? How popular is No Deal these days?
0 -
EHRC results should be out quite soon, Starmer has a lot of good will IMHO if he sacks the people that deserve it0
-
Thailand's not done so badly either.ydoethur said:
If the minute we can travel safely again Vietnam is not crawling with pandemic experts to find out how the bloody hell they managed so well despite every disadvantage of climate, geography, economy, demography and politics, then any enquiry will be meaningless.Peter_the_Punter said:
As Bill Gates remarked a while back, when all the exam papers are in and finally marked, it is unlikely many countries will get an A+. Early indications are that NZ and Vietnam will be top of the class. The UK seems bound for mid-table.Philip_Thompson said:
With a novel pandemic like this a fuck up would be hundreds of thousands or more dead.Dura_Ace said:
If 43,000 dead is a "great job" I'd hate to see him fuck it up.Philip_Thompson said:
And you ranting and raving about "BoZo" does what exactly?Scott_xP said:
He has the same problem as Trump in that regard.Big_G_NorthWales said:I think, as the Sky polling experts has just, said Boris's recent announcements have been popular as is his optimism and the polling should see a substantial move to him if it succeeds, but less so if it goes wrong
I do not see anyone on thos forum, Scott included, who would disagree with this polling expert
You can't troll reality. The virus doesn't care how clever or witty your speech is.
If there is another spike, BoZo will suffer. If the schools don't open, BoZo will suffer.
And Brexit rumbles on. If Nissan closes, BoZo will struggle to spin that as good news.
If the chunnel shudders to a halt, a cheery speech will not help.
The first consignment of chlorine chicken will not help his numbers.
Reality is Boris is nothing like Trump and has done a great job in squashing the virus in this country contrasted with what's happening in America. The UK and USA are not the same whatsoever and any pretensions of you trying to claim about "reality" is preposterous nonsense.
43,000 dead isn't pleasant by any means but is comparable to eg the Hong Kong Flu.
The US is heading for a fail.
That's not to downplay the achievements of New Zealand, or Taiwan, or South Korea, but they're islands (de facto if not de jure in South Korea's case). Vietnam is not.0 -
I was wondering what you had against our only great living political cartoonist.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/mattzarb/status/1276609561722404866
I really hope Matt will quietly fuck off now he's got no power on the front bench. With Milne, perhaps the worst Labour adviser ever.
Then the tweet loaded.0 -
Essentially the equivalent of the Tories, Labour and the Greens combining to keep the SNP out at Holyrood. Clearly SF have some...problematic...past and present positions for many but they still came top in first preference votes. But for the pandemic this would surely be being derided as an establishment stitch up?
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/12768109945520537660 -
That's a problem because everything we sell to the EU will need to meet their laws and regulations and we no longer have any say in them.Philip_Thompson said:
Anything that locks us into following EU laws without having a say in them would be 100% unacceptable to me.CorrectHorseBattery said:Regards the deal with the EU, what deal would Johnson have to bring back that would make his voters very angry? I assume some kind of locked in deal? How popular is No Deal these days?
1 -
True, and has now reopened, but Thailand has no border with China.OldKingCole said:
Thailand's not done so badly either.ydoethur said:
If the minute we can travel safely again Vietnam is not crawling with pandemic experts to find out how the bloody hell they managed so well despite every disadvantage of climate, geography, economy, demography and politics, then any enquiry will be meaningless.Peter_the_Punter said:
As Bill Gates remarked a while back, when all the exam papers are in and finally marked, it is unlikely many countries will get an A+. Early indications are that NZ and Vietnam will be top of the class. The UK seems bound for mid-table.Philip_Thompson said:
With a novel pandemic like this a fuck up would be hundreds of thousands or more dead.Dura_Ace said:
If 43,000 dead is a "great job" I'd hate to see him fuck it up.Philip_Thompson said:
And you ranting and raving about "BoZo" does what exactly?Scott_xP said:
He has the same problem as Trump in that regard.Big_G_NorthWales said:I think, as the Sky polling experts has just, said Boris's recent announcements have been popular as is his optimism and the polling should see a substantial move to him if it succeeds, but less so if it goes wrong
I do not see anyone on thos forum, Scott included, who would disagree with this polling expert
You can't troll reality. The virus doesn't care how clever or witty your speech is.
If there is another spike, BoZo will suffer. If the schools don't open, BoZo will suffer.
And Brexit rumbles on. If Nissan closes, BoZo will struggle to spin that as good news.
If the chunnel shudders to a halt, a cheery speech will not help.
The first consignment of chlorine chicken will not help his numbers.
Reality is Boris is nothing like Trump and has done a great job in squashing the virus in this country contrasted with what's happening in America. The UK and USA are not the same whatsoever and any pretensions of you trying to claim about "reality" is preposterous nonsense.
43,000 dead isn't pleasant by any means but is comparable to eg the Hong Kong Flu.
The US is heading for a fail.
That's not to downplay the achievements of New Zealand, or Taiwan, or South Korea, but they're islands (de facto if not de jure in South Korea's case). Vietnam is not.
When the first statistics came through from Vietnam, they were so good I assumed they were forged. But it doesn't look as though they were. It seems they genuinely have played an absolute blinder.
And given where they are, and how many Chinese workers they had, and how vulnerable their transport networks are, that's little short of incredible.
I have been wondering if it's because they all wear masks as standard due to pollution levels, but whatever it is we need to find out and put it straight into action if there's a next time.0 -
I hope sack means "remove the whip" not "remove from Shadow Cabinet".CorrectHorseBattery said:EHRC results should be out quite soon, Starmer has a lot of good will IMHO if he sacks the people that deserve it
0 -
When will Johnson be sacking Jenrick and removing the Whip from him?Philip_Thompson said:
I hope sack means "remove the whip" not "remove from Shadow Cabinet".CorrectHorseBattery said:EHRC results should be out quite soon, Starmer has a lot of good will IMHO if he sacks the people that deserve it
0 -
Looking at the media chatter about GPS and "wrong type of satellite", does anyone know where this line came from?
Is there any official mention of Oneweb and GPS?
I can't see anything sourcing it to any Govt source. Had a little trip down the Graun rabbithole, and it just seems to be self-sourced.0 -
The Shinners are probably rubbing their hands with glee thinking of the next election.DougSeal said:Essentially the equivalent of the Tories, Labour and the Greens combining to keep the SNP out at Holyrood. Clearly SF have some...problematic...past and present positions for many but they still came top in first preference votes. But for the pandemic this would surely be being derided as an establishment stitch up?
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1276810994552053766
You wonder a bit whether this might be the end of Fianna Fail as a serious force as well. Getting their leader as Taoiseach is not a good deal if it pisses off all their voters.2 -
I had the same issue, the satellites are clearly for communication purposes so I don't know where the idea for GPS (that led all the stories) came from.MattW said:Looking at the media chatter about GPS and "wrong type of satellite", does anyone know where this line came from?
I can't see anything sourcing it to any Govt source. Had a little trip down the Graun rabbithole, and it just seems to be self-sourced.
I'm told that in theory it's possible for the satellites to be used to piggyback on a GPS system but how much truth there is in that I don't know.0 -
The tricky thing is that I don't see how he keeps all his voters happy. If he keeps the wheels turning with a BEANO-type deal, he opens the door to Farage again. If he goes for a diamond-hard-Farage-proof Brexit, the economic situation could go horribly wrong.CorrectHorseBattery said:Regards the deal with the EU, what deal would Johnson have to bring back that would make his voters very angry? I assume some kind of locked in deal? How popular is No Deal these days?
He's done a brilliant job of keeping "cake and eat it" in people's minds for so long. It probably helped that Northern Ireland (which was the first sign that the game was up) is so far away for most people. But I don't see how he continues to fool reality beyond December.1 -
The Labour Party is a disgusting cesspit.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/mattzarb/status/1276609561722404866
I really hope Matt will quietly fuck off now he's got no power on the front bench. With Milne, perhaps the worst Labour adviser ever.0 -
True for most export markets surely?eek said:
That's a problem because everything we sell to the EU will need to meet their laws and regulations and we no longer have any say in them.Philip_Thompson said:
Anything that locks us into following EU laws without having a say in them would be 100% unacceptable to me.CorrectHorseBattery said:Regards the deal with the EU, what deal would Johnson have to bring back that would make his voters very angry? I assume some kind of locked in deal? How popular is No Deal these days?
0 -
I’m aware of the historical genesis of FF and FG but I’ve never quite been able to get my head around what differentiates them in ideology without the Civil War context.ydoethur said:
The Shinners are probably rubbing their hands with glee thinking of the next election.DougSeal said:Essentially the equivalent of the Tories, Labour and the Greens combining to keep the SNP out at Holyrood. Clearly SF have some...problematic...past and present positions for many but they still came top in first preference votes. But for the pandemic this would surely be being derided as an establishment stitch up?
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1276810994552053766
You wonder a bit whether this might be the end of Fianna Fail as a serious force as well. Getting their leader as Taoiseach is not a good deal if it pisses off all their voters.0 -
That's not a problem whatsoever. Why shouldn't what we sell to them meet their laws?eek said:
That's a problem because everything we sell to the EU will need to meet their laws and regulations and we no longer have any say in them.Philip_Thompson said:
Anything that locks us into following EU laws without having a say in them would be 100% unacceptable to me.CorrectHorseBattery said:Regards the deal with the EU, what deal would Johnson have to bring back that would make his voters very angry? I assume some kind of locked in deal? How popular is No Deal these days?
Who cares whatsoever about that? If we sell to any country anywhere in the entire world we need to meet their laws and regulations - but we're not obliged to meet them domestically. That's the difference.0 -
Surely the only response left regarding America is an international travel ban. You can let your ladygarden breathe and not interfere in God's breath and that's fine. But you are banned from coming here with your plague2
-
Morning all
Thank you for the piece, David, as always an excellent read to start the weekend.
I'm going to offer something different which I think shows the polls aren't as good for Biden as the headline figures suggest.
Taking the latest PBS/Marist poll and comparing it to the 2016 vote and looking at the four "regions" of the US:
In the Northeast which provided 19% of the vote in 2016, Biden leads 62-34 whereas Clinton won the region 55-40 in 2016. That might give Biden a shot at PA and Maine 2 but the Democrats already have a stranglehold on most of the other states.
In the West (21% of the vote in 2016), Biden leads 60-36 compared to 55-39 last time. Biden might win Arizona but all he is doing is piling up votes where he doesn't need them in California.
In the South (37% of the vote in 2016), Trump leads 49-45 whereas he won the region 52-44 in 2016 so the position is little changed with Biden so the question is whether Biden is making any headway in Georgia or Florida or is Trump piling up votes in Kentucky, Tennessee and Mississippi to name but three.
Finally, to the battleground, the Midwest which contributed 23% of the vote last time and which Trump won 49-45. Currently he is up 52-45 so he has improved his position on 2016.
So my reading is Trump's position is far stronger than the headline numbers suggest. Biden is piling up votes where he doesn't need them (the Northeast and the West) but not picking them up where he does in the Midwest and South.
This election is far from over.5 -
True for all exports markets surely?RobD said:
True for most export markets surely?eek said:
That's a problem because everything we sell to the EU will need to meet their laws and regulations and we no longer have any say in them.Philip_Thompson said:
Anything that locks us into following EU laws without having a say in them would be 100% unacceptable to me.CorrectHorseBattery said:Regards the deal with the EU, what deal would Johnson have to bring back that would make his voters very angry? I assume some kind of locked in deal? How popular is No Deal these days?
0 -
That's a good point but what about domestic laws that might give us (or them) an unfair advantage: state subsidies, workers rights, that sort of thing?Philip_Thompson said:
That's not a problem whatsoever. Why shouldn't what we sell to them meet their laws?eek said:
That's a problem because everything we sell to the EU will need to meet their laws and regulations and we no longer have any say in them.Philip_Thompson said:
Anything that locks us into following EU laws without having a say in them would be 100% unacceptable to me.CorrectHorseBattery said:Regards the deal with the EU, what deal would Johnson have to bring back that would make his voters very angry? I assume some kind of locked in deal? How popular is No Deal these days?
Who cares whatsoever about that? If we sell to any country anywhere in the entire world we need to meet their laws and regulations - but we're not obliged to meet them domestically. That's the difference.0 -
Much of Corbynite anger seems to be focused on that ideas and policies they like are, or could be, quite popular, but people like Corbyn or Sultana are extremely bad at selling them to people under Corbynite leadership, whereas Starmer might well be able to.ydoethur said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:...and put into dramatic focus earlier in the week when we were starkly reminded how utterly useless his main rival would have been.
One of the great advantages Starmer has is just how useless the Corbynites are.
Long-Bailey, nuff said. Pidcock, heaven help us all. Cat Smith, even worse. Ian Lavery, still posturing with the integrity and ability of an idiot. Burgon, Sultana, Abbott, O'Mara...
About the only really formidable Corbynite MPs are Macdonnell and Trickett, who are both around 70 and at the end of their careers. Macdonnell is also far from well, of course. Corbyn himself is also elderly. None of the three are likely to be in Parliament after the next election.
That means he can present Corbynism as a spasm. An emotional spasm, to quote Labour's most potent actual Socialist. It is a phase that has passed and he will say, will not be returning.
Of course, he is still much more left wing than Blair, as is the party he leads. But how often has the left lost because people dislike their policies, contrasted with people's disdain for their leadership?
That is, they are angry because even when their ideas are not crap, they are.
They could use more McDonnells, you need people who are somewhat formidible no matter how good your ideas may or may not be.1 -
..
There’s this:MattW said:Looking at the media chatter about GPS and "wrong type of satellite", does anyone know where this line came from?
Is there any official mention of Oneweb and GPS?
I can't see anything sourcing it to any Govt source. Had a little trip down the Graun rabbithole, and it just seems to be self-sourced.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2020/06/26/space-officials-warn-government-500m-satellite-push-could-fail/0 -
When he engages in a sustained campaign of antisemitism so awful it draws the ire of the EHRC perhaps?CorrectHorseBattery said:
When will Johnson be sacking Jenrick and removing the Whip from him?Philip_Thompson said:
I hope sack means "remove the whip" not "remove from Shadow Cabinet".CorrectHorseBattery said:EHRC results should be out quite soon, Starmer has a lot of good will IMHO if he sacks the people that deserve it
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I know several very religious people, and I cannot fathom them objecting or supporting the use of masks on the basis of God designing our breathing systems. Do they wash themselves, take any medications at all? Do not pollute God's temple!CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/CharlesMBlow/status/1276670640020389894
God help us all0 -
Apart from anything else, how much cheaper can chicken get? You can buy a whole chicken for £3 in most supermarkets. Cheaper than an average pint in a pub. Once you allow for retail profit, marketing, UK distribution etc, the cost of the chicken itself is rock-bottom already. I am not convinced that to the average shopper the price would be any lower with chlorinated chicken.OldKingCole said:
Au contraire. The first consignment of cheap chicken will help his numbers. A subsequent and associated outbreak of salmonella will however, send them crashing again.Scott_xP said:
He has the same problem as Trump in that regard.Big_G_NorthWales said:I think, as the Sky polling experts has just, said Boris's recent announcements have been popular as is his optimism and the polling should see a substantial move to him if it succeeds, but less so if it goes wrong
I do not see anyone on thos forum, Scott included, who would disagree with this polling expert
You can't troll reality. The virus doesn't care how clever or witty your speech is.
If there is another spike, BoZo will suffer. If the schools don't open, BoZo will suffer.
And Brexit rumbles on. If Nissan closes, BoZo will struggle to spin that as good news.
If the chunnel shudders to a halt, a cheery speech will not help.
The first consignment of chlorine chicken will not help his numbers.
A 1.3 kg whole chicken retails at USD $4 in low cost stores: https://www.globalprice.info/en/?p=usa/food-prices-in-usa
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None of those stop exports. We import tat from china and I think we'd all agree their policy on worker's rights leaves a lot to be desired.Benpointer said:
That's a good point but what about domestic laws that might give us (or them) an unfair advantage: state subsidies, workers rights, that sort of thing?Philip_Thompson said:
That's not a problem whatsoever. Why shouldn't what we sell to them meet their laws?eek said:
That's a problem because everything we sell to the EU will need to meet their laws and regulations and we no longer have any say in them.Philip_Thompson said:
Anything that locks us into following EU laws without having a say in them would be 100% unacceptable to me.CorrectHorseBattery said:Regards the deal with the EU, what deal would Johnson have to bring back that would make his voters very angry? I assume some kind of locked in deal? How popular is No Deal these days?
Who cares whatsoever about that? If we sell to any country anywhere in the entire world we need to meet their laws and regulations - but we're not obliged to meet them domestically. That's the difference.1 -
I believe in democracy.Benpointer said:
That's a good point but what about domestic laws that might give us (or them) an unfair advantage: state subsidies, workers rights, that sort of thing?Philip_Thompson said:
That's not a problem whatsoever. Why shouldn't what we sell to them meet their laws?eek said:
That's a problem because everything we sell to the EU will need to meet their laws and regulations and we no longer have any say in them.Philip_Thompson said:
Anything that locks us into following EU laws without having a say in them would be 100% unacceptable to me.CorrectHorseBattery said:Regards the deal with the EU, what deal would Johnson have to bring back that would make his voters very angry? I assume some kind of locked in deal? How popular is No Deal these days?
Who cares whatsoever about that? If we sell to any country anywhere in the entire world we need to meet their laws and regulations - but we're not obliged to meet them domestically. That's the difference.
If we agree a fixed minimum level playing field that neither party can alter unilaterally (but either party can end the agreement) then that is fair.
If we agree a dynamic level playing field that means they can change it at whim and we are obliged to follow it then that is utterly unacceptable.0 -
He should remove the whip from any MPs criticised in it. If that means Corbyn and his little helpers are thrown out of the party, so much the better.CorrectHorseBattery said:EHRC results should be out quite soon, Starmer has a lot of good will IMHO if he sacks the people that deserve it
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Thailand's being very cautious about with whom it reopens borders, I'm still hoping to go at Christmas; it's a little bit more likely now, but apparently they don't trust us. Covid-19-wise, anyway!ydoethur said:
True, and has now reopened, but Thailand has no border with China.OldKingCole said:
Thailand's not done so badly either.ydoethur said:
If the minute we can travel safely again Vietnam is not crawling with pandemic experts to find out how the bloody hell they managed so well despite every disadvantage of climate, geography, economy, demography and politics, then any enquiry will be meaningless.Peter_the_Punter said:
As Bill Gates remarked a while back, when all the exam papers are in and finally marked, it is unlikely many countries will get an A+. Early indications are that NZ and Vietnam will be top of the class. The UK seems bound for mid-table.Philip_Thompson said:
With a novel pandemic like this a fuck up would be hundreds of thousands or more dead.Dura_Ace said:
If 43,000 dead is a "great job" I'd hate to see him fuck it up.Philip_Thompson said:
And you ranting and raving about "BoZo" does what exactly?Scott_xP said:
He has the same problem as Trump in that regard.Big_G_NorthWales said:I think, as the Sky polling experts has just, said Boris's recent announcements have been popular as is his optimism and the polling should see a substantial move to him if it succeeds, but less so if it goes wrong
I do not see anyone on thos forum, Scott included, who would disagree with this polling expert
You can't troll reality. The virus doesn't care how clever or witty your speech is.
If there is another spike, BoZo will suffer. If the schools don't open, BoZo will suffer.
And Brexit rumbles on. If Nissan closes, BoZo will struggle to spin that as good news.
If the chunnel shudders to a halt, a cheery speech will not help.
The first consignment of chlorine chicken will not help his numbers.
Reality is Boris is nothing like Trump and has done a great job in squashing the virus in this country contrasted with what's happening in America. The UK and USA are not the same whatsoever and any pretensions of you trying to claim about "reality" is preposterous nonsense.
43,000 dead isn't pleasant by any means but is comparable to eg the Hong Kong Flu.
The US is heading for a fail.
That's not to downplay the achievements of New Zealand, or Taiwan, or South Korea, but they're islands (de facto if not de jure in South Korea's case). Vietnam is not.
When the first statistics came through from Vietnam, they were so good I assumed they were forged. But it doesn't look as though they were. It seems they genuinely have played an absolute blinder.
And given where they are, and how many Chinese workers they had, and how vulnerable their transport networks are, that's little short of incredible.
I have been wondering if it's because they all wear masks as standard due to pollution levels, but whatever it is we need to find out and put it straight into action if there's a next time.0
