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In the Survation EU Parliament poll UKIP has 36% of 2010-LDs, Labour 12%, Con 10%, current-LD 31%Financier said:Looking at the YouGov 2010 splits, this morning for the LDs it is:
Cons: 15; LAB:27; LD: 39; UKIP:9; Green:7. If this was continued then it would show that more of the LD to LAB switch is returning.
For this year and using monthly averages, the LD to LAB support has dropped by about 4 points but the LD retention has dropped by about 1.5 points. The extra VI has gone to the Cons (2 pts) and UKIP and Green, (1.5 each)
(table 6, p.9)
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/May-voting-poll-Mirror-tables.pdf
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So Labour take enough seats from Others to lead on seats too. Don't buy that. ComRes do, as I read things, suggest a Tory seat lead but Lab leading on PV (were there a general election tomorrow). What do you suggest their two polls project?TheScreamingEagles said:
That in Lab/Con marginals, it is largely no change.BobaFett said:
Well what do they suggest then? Their national poll has Lab ahead, but no the marginals poll suggests no seats change hands?!?TheScreamingEagles said:
No.BobaFett said:No-one seems to have answered my query below.
Does ComRes therefore suggest a Labour lead on votes but a Tory lead on seats?
But there are other seats that will also determine the outcome ofe the next election.
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@DavidL - I understand. An extreme eurosceptic is someone who doesn't agree with your views on the EU.0
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@TSE - Yes, these are exciting times. Big constitutional change is coming whatever happens in September.
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You'd have to be pretty peculiar to want my reputation. Especially as a political tipster :-)Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Observer, fair enough, it just seemed slightly odd. I was worried someone might be trying to steal your identity and besmirch your reputation!
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Those 2010 Lib Dems are a pretty fickle bunch! Did they have any idea what they were voting for? Do they now?anotherDave said:
In the Survation EU Parliament poll UKIP has 36% of 2010-LDs, Labour 12%, Con 10%, current-LD 31%Financier said:Looking at the YouGov 2010 splits, this morning for the LDs it is:
Cons: 15; LAB:27; LD: 39; UKIP:9; Green:7. If this was continued then it would show that more of the LD to LAB switch is returning.
For this year and using monthly averages, the LD to LAB support has dropped by about 4 points but the LD retention has dropped by about 1.5 points. The extra VI has gone to the Cons (2 pts) and UKIP and Green, (1.5 each)
(table 6, p.9)
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/May-voting-poll-Mirror-tables.pdf
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SouthamObserver said:
UKIP's Chairman in Hertsmere is Frank Ward, formerly leader of the Labour Group on the Council, Parliamentary candidate in 1983, and father of Claire Ward, Labour MP for Watford from 1997-2010, and as staunch a socialist as Glasgow ever produced. Ten years ago, when I was on the council, I'd have laughed at the idea we'd ever be in the same party.edmundintokyo said:
UKIP is benefiting currently by being all things to all men. Newsnight went to Rotherham last night and spoke to a few ex-miners who spoke wistfully of the strike, Dennis Skinner and Tony Benn, before saying that they voted UKIP in the last local elections.Sean_F said:
Good for the right in general. Two separate strong brands are generally going to get a bigger cumulative market share than one big, fuzzy brand representing various contradictory propositions. The catch, though, is FPTP.SouthamObserver said:
And good for UKIP too, as they gather up Conservative voters and members.ToryJim said:
If you look at the way the Tories courted the UKIP vote you'd have to disagree with that. But it could just be that they are beginning to realise they are better off heading for the middle ground. That will be good for the Tories and for this country.DavidL said:
I have often wondered if Cameron's plan with the coalition wasn't to in essence attempt to use the Lib Dems to complete the detox. After all there isn't much that the Lib Dems haven't willingly gone along with and I wonder if things like the equal marriage stuff haven't shifted the locus of support for the Conservatives. If so it will be reflected increasingly in candidate selections and may increase prospects particularly in the longer term.SouthamObserver said:@DavidL - "It is also consistent with the view that I expressed the other day that Cameron and Osborne seem to gaining as much in the centre as they are losing to the right."
And dare I say it but continue to win the enthusiastic support of moderate, civilised, reasonable people like me.
The Hague and Howard years were difficult as the tories tested euro-sceptic nonsense and scapegoat politics to destruction in the small part of the playground that Blair was willing to let them use. Being in Coalition with the Lib Dems has given Cameron and in particular Osborne cover to do a lot that needed done anyway.
There is a happy congruity between principles and political polling at the moment for the tories. Long may it last.0 -
That, and you can see the Tories losing seats to others as well.BobaFett said:
So Labour take enough seats from Others to lead on seats too. Don't buy that. ComRes do, as I read things, suggest a Tory seat lead but Lab leading on PV (were there a general election tomorrow). What do you suggest their two polls project?TheScreamingEagles said:
That in Lab/Con marginals, it is largely no change.BobaFett said:
Well what do they suggest then? Their national poll has Lab ahead, but no the marginals poll suggests no seats change hands?!?TheScreamingEagles said:
No.BobaFett said:No-one seems to have answered my query below.
Does ComRes therefore suggest a Labour lead on votes but a Tory lead on seats?
But there are other seats that will also determine the outcome ofe the next election.0 -
Sean_F said:
If he remains a staunch socialist then UKIP in its current form is not sustainable, is it?SouthamObserver said:
UKIP's Chairman in Hertsmere is Frank Ward, formerly leader of the Labour Group on the Council, Parliamentary candidate in 1983, and father of Claire Ward, Labour MP for Watford from 1997-2010, and as staunch a socialist as Glasgow ever produced. Ten years ago, when I was on the council, I'd have laughed at the idea we'd ever be in the same party.edmundintokyo said:
UKIP is benefiting currently by being all things to all men. Newsnight went to Rotherham last night and spoke to a few ex-miners who spoke wistfully of the strike, Dennis Skinner and Tony Benn, before saying that they voted UKIP in the last local elections.Sean_F said:
Good for the right in general. Two separate strong brands are generally going to get a bigger cumulative market share than one big, fuzzy brand representing various contradictory propositions. The catch, though, is FPTP.SouthamObserver said:
And good for UKIP too, as they gather up Conservative voters and members.ToryJim said:
If you look at the way the Tories courted the UKIP vote you'd have to disagree with that. But it could just be that they are beginning to realise they are better off heading for the middle ground. That will be good for the Tories and for this country.DavidL said:
I have often wondered if Cameron's plan with the coalition wasn't to in essence attempt to use the Lib Dems to complete the detox. After all there isn't much that the Lib Dems haven't willingly gone along with and I wonder if things like the equal marriage stuff haven't shifted the locus of support for the Conservatives. If so it will be reflected increasingly in candidate selections and may increase prospects particularly in the longer term.SouthamObserver said:@DavidL - "It is also consistent with the view that I expressed the other day that Cameron and Osborne seem to gaining as much in the centre as they are losing to the right."
And dare I say it but continue to win the enthusiastic support of moderate, civilised, reasonable people like me.
The Hague and Howard years were difficult as the tories tested euro-sceptic nonsense and scapegoat politics to destruction in the small part of the playground that Blair was willing to let them use. Being in Coalition with the Lib Dems has given Cameron and in particular Osborne cover to do a lot that needed done anyway.
There is a happy congruity between principles and political polling at the moment for the tories. Long may it last.0 -
Mr. Observer, there are all sorts of odd people on the interweb.0
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Off Topic.
BBC “French red faces over trains that are 'too wide” - Heard this story on the news this morning, it comes to a pretty pass when one hears things on the radio and immediately thinks Mr Jessop or Sunil will enjoy hearing that...!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27497727
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EV4EL.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, I'd like lopsided devolution to end. I don't think it will, though.
Politicians will either ignore the West Lothian Question or, worse, try to carve England up into pathetic little regional assemblies.0 -
Sean_F said:
The lion shall lie down with the lamb.SouthamObserver said:
UKIP's Chairman in Hertsmere is Frank Ward, formerly leader of the Labour Group on the Council, Parliamentary candidate in 1983, and father of Claire Ward, Labour MP for Watford from 1997-2010, and as staunch a socialist as Glasgow ever produced. Ten years ago, when I was on the council, I'd have laughed at the idea we'd ever be in the same party.edmundintokyo said:
UKIP is benefiting currently by being all things to all men. Newsnight went to Rotherham last night and spoke to a few ex-miners who spoke wistfully of the strike, Dennis Skinner and Tony Benn, before saying that they voted UKIP in the last local elections.Sean_F said:
Good for the right in general. Two separate strong brands are generally going to get a bigger cumulative market share than one big, fuzzy brand representing various contradictory propositions. The catch, though, is FPTP.SouthamObserver said:
And good for UKIP too, as they gather up Conservative voters and members.ToryJim said:
If you look at the way the Tories courted the UKIP vote you'd have to disagree with that. But it could just be that they are beginning to realise they are better off heading for the middle ground. That will be good for the Tories and for this country.DavidL said:
I have often wondered if Cameron's plan with the coalition wasn't to in essence attempt to use the Lib Dems to complete the detox. After all there isn't much that the Lib Dems haven't willingly gone along with and I wonder if things like the equal marriage stuff haven't shifted the locus of support for the Conservatives. If so it will be reflected increasingly in candidate selections and may increase prospects particularly in the longer term.SouthamObserver said:@DavidL - "It is also consistent with the view that I expressed the other day that Cameron and Osborne seem to gaining as much in the centre as they are losing to the right."
And dare I say it but continue to win the enthusiastic support of moderate, civilised, reasonable people like me.
The Hague and Howard years were difficult as the tories tested euro-sceptic nonsense and scapegoat politics to destruction in the small part of the playground that Blair was willing to let them use. Being in Coalition with the Lib Dems has given Cameron and in particular Osborne cover to do a lot that needed done anyway.
There is a happy congruity between principles and political polling at the moment for the tories. Long may it last.
One Nation Kippers.0 -
Farages expectation management... We're going to win!!!
Also commits to Selective education and says they'd have someone from big business running the Nhs
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/477165/Exclusive-Nigel-Farage-explains-why-Ukip-is-here-to-stay0 -
@Thescreamingeagles Con Seats/Lab Votes is 100-1 with Paddy, you sure its less than a 1% chance given this poll ?TheScreamingEagles said:
That, and you can see the Tories losing seats to others as well.BobaFett said:
So Labour take enough seats from Others to lead on seats too. Don't buy that. ComRes do, as I read things, suggest a Tory seat lead but Lab leading on PV (were there a general election tomorrow). What do you suggest their two polls project?TheScreamingEagles said:
That in Lab/Con marginals, it is largely no change.BobaFett said:
Well what do they suggest then? Their national poll has Lab ahead, but no the marginals poll suggests no seats change hands?!?TheScreamingEagles said:
No.BobaFett said:No-one seems to have answered my query below.
Does ComRes therefore suggest a Labour lead on votes but a Tory lead on seats?
But there are other seats that will also determine the outcome ofe the next election.0 -
The campaign has finally arrived in the North East - there was a Kipper on an overbridge above the A1 this morning with a big placard stuck to his car.
I wish we had some proper regional polling in addition to London / Scotland / Wales. I'm sure that UKIP will win a NE seat, but are they on track to top the poll up here? And can the Greens beat the LDs?0 -
Wasnt this poll based on a sample of 26 people per constituency?Pulpstar said:
@Thescreamingeagles Con Seats/Lab Votes is 100-1 with Paddy, you sure its less than a 1% chance given this poll ?TheScreamingEagles said:
That, and you can see the Tories losing seats to others as well.BobaFett said:
So Labour take enough seats from Others to lead on seats too. Don't buy that. ComRes do, as I read things, suggest a Tory seat lead but Lab leading on PV (were there a general election tomorrow). What do you suggest their two polls project?TheScreamingEagles said:
That in Lab/Con marginals, it is largely no change.BobaFett said:
Well what do they suggest then? Their national poll has Lab ahead, but no the marginals poll suggests no seats change hands?!?TheScreamingEagles said:
No.BobaFett said:No-one seems to have answered my query below.
Does ComRes therefore suggest a Labour lead on votes but a Tory lead on seats?
But there are other seats that will also determine the outcome ofe the next election.0 -
Of the three council wards that make up Hampstead proper, there are eight Conservative councillors, and one LibDem.Sean_F said:
Contrary to popular belief, Hampstead proper is reliably Conservative. It's Kilburn and Gospel Oak that provide a huge Labour vote. The Conservatives would have won on the pre-2010 boundaries.TOPPING said:
Chris Philp, not Phelps.Charles said:
WhySouthamObserver said:
This is a constituency I know pretty well. If the Tories get close next year they will win a substantial overall majority without any doubt at all. I would expect a very safe Labour hold.david_herdson said:
Which implies one or more of:Stuart_Dickson said:- "CON doing far better in the marginals than GB as a whole"
Err...
CON Target No. 1
Hampstead and Kilburn (Lab Maj = 42)
PP:
Lab 2/7
Con 7/2
LD 6/1
UKIP 80/1
- There's value in the Con price
- The ComRes figures are on the top side for the Tories in the marginals
- There are local factors in play in H&K.
I don't know the constituency, but met Chris Phelps on a train a few years ago - he did a pretty good job overall*. Admittedly - I'd assume - the LD would probably be more inclined than most to vote tactically, but Glenda is stepping down isn't she? Have the constituency boundaries changed in Labour's favour?
I'm just wondering why the same result in H&K next time wouldn't imply a broadly similar result nationally, all other things being equal
* I donated £250 to his campaign
edit: given that he (or his team) never wrote to say 'thank you' I'm unlikely to do so in future. A computer generated letter, a quick top&tail and a stamp doesn't cost much, folks.
Top man, went all out at GE2010 very organised on top of all the activity.
But H&K was not only a fiefdom for GJ but is chock-a-block of a) champagne socialists; and b) grim tower blocks. The latter are natural labour supporters (or were!) while the former are, um, natural labour supporters.
It will take a lot to shake off the feeling of H&Kers that they are not a noble outpost in the fight against the harsh tories.
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Well in those 'other seats' LAB probably gain Bradford Wst, will lose some seats in Scotland to SNP... NI is of course 18 seats for neither LAB nor CON. Wales ? No idea much the same maybe ?TheScreamingEagles said:
That in Lab/Con marginals, it is largely no change.BobaFett said:
Well what do they suggest then? Their national poll has Lab ahead, but no the marginals poll suggests no seats change hands?!?TheScreamingEagles said:
No.BobaFett said:No-one seems to have answered my query below.
Does ComRes therefore suggest a Labour lead on votes but a Tory lead on seats?
But there are other seats that will also determine the outcome ofe the next election.0 -
Exactly. Where are these mystery seats Labour will take to effect a seats win?Pulpstar said:
Well in those 'other seats' LAB probably gain Bradford Wst, will lose some seats in Scotland to SNP... NI is of course 18 seats for neither LAB nor CON. Wales ? No idea much the same maybe ?TheScreamingEagles said:
That in Lab/Con marginals, it is largely no change.BobaFett said:
Well what do they suggest then? Their national poll has Lab ahead, but no the marginals poll suggests no seats change hands?!?TheScreamingEagles said:
No.BobaFett said:No-one seems to have answered my query below.
Does ComRes therefore suggest a Labour lead on votes but a Tory lead on seats?
But there are other seats that will also determine the outcome ofe the next election.
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The overall effect is a sample of 1030 though - think about how many people/constituency are polled in a 'normal' poll...isam said:
Wasnt this poll based on a sample of 26 people per constituency?Pulpstar said:
@Thescreamingeagles Con Seats/Lab Votes is 100-1 with Paddy, you sure its less than a 1% chance given this poll ?TheScreamingEagles said:
That, and you can see the Tories losing seats to others as well.BobaFett said:
So Labour take enough seats from Others to lead on seats too. Don't buy that. ComRes do, as I read things, suggest a Tory seat lead but Lab leading on PV (were there a general election tomorrow). What do you suggest their two polls project?TheScreamingEagles said:
That in Lab/Con marginals, it is largely no change.BobaFett said:
Well what do they suggest then? Their national poll has Lab ahead, but no the marginals poll suggests no seats change hands?!?TheScreamingEagles said:
No.BobaFett said:No-one seems to have answered my query below.
Does ComRes therefore suggest a Labour lead on votes but a Tory lead on seats?
But there are other seats that will also determine the outcome ofe the next election.0 -
William Hill - Euros - North East England - Most VotesSandyRentool said:The campaign has finally arrived in the North East - there was a Kipper on an overbridge above the A1 this morning with a big placard stuck to his car.
I wish we had some proper regional polling in addition to London / Scotland / Wales. I'm sure that UKIP will win a NE seat, but are they on track to top the poll up here? And can the Greens beat the LDs?
Labour 1/33
UKIP 6/1
Conservatives 50/1
Greens 200/1
Liberal Democrats 200/1
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2015 looks promising too. Survation are predicting ~20%, and the councillors/MEPs elected on thursday should provide some more good advocates.isam said:Farages expectation management... We're going to win!!!
Also commits to Selective education and says they'd have someone from big business running the Nhs
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/477165/Exclusive-Nigel-Farage-explains-why-Ukip-is-here-to-stay
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So the "Hampstead liberal" is yet another piece of mythology. So who keeps buying all of those copies of the Guardian?rcs1000 said:
Of the three council wards that make up Hampstead proper, there are eight Conservative councillors, and one LibDem.Sean_F said:
Contrary to popular belief, Hampstead proper is reliably Conservative. It's Kilburn and Gospel Oak that provide a huge Labour vote. The Conservatives would have won on the pre-2010 boundaries.TOPPING said:
Chris Philp, not Phelps.Charles said:
WhySouthamObserver said:
This is a constituency I know pretty well. If the Tories get close next year they will win a substantial overall majority without any doubt at all. I would expect a very safe Labour hold.david_herdson said:
Which implies one or more of:Stuart_Dickson said:- "CON doing far better in the marginals than GB as a whole"
Err...
CON Target No. 1
Hampstead and Kilburn (Lab Maj = 42)
PP:
Lab 2/7
Con 7/2
LD 6/1
UKIP 80/1
- There's value in the Con price
- The ComRes figures are on the top side for the Tories in the marginals
- There are local factors in play in H&K.
I don't know the constituency, but met Chris Phelps on a train a few years ago - he did a pretty good job overall*. Admittedly - I'd assume - the LD would probably be more inclined than most to vote tactically, but Glenda is stepping down isn't she? Have the constituency boundaries changed in Labour's favour?
I'm just wondering why the same result in H&K next time wouldn't imply a broadly similar result nationally, all other things being equal
* I donated £250 to his campaign
edit: given that he (or his team) never wrote to say 'thank you' I'm unlikely to do so in future. A computer generated letter, a quick top&tail and a stamp doesn't cost much, folks.
Top man, went all out at GE2010 very organised on top of all the activity.
But H&K was not only a fiefdom for GJ but is chock-a-block of a) champagne socialists; and b) grim tower blocks. The latter are natural labour supporters (or were!) while the former are, um, natural labour supporters.
It will take a lot to shake off the feeling of H&Kers that they are not a noble outpost in the fight against the harsh tories.0 -
It was, but I guess we do have to look into what it projects, for betting reasons if nothing else. There are some very long odds available on the Tories to hold the seats this marginals poll suggests they will hold.isam said:
Wasnt this poll based on a sample of 26 people per constituency?Pulpstar said:
@Thescreamingeagles Con Seats/Lab Votes is 100-1 with Paddy, you sure its less than a 1% chance given this poll ?TheScreamingEagles said:
That, and you can see the Tories losing seats to others as well.BobaFett said:
So Labour take enough seats from Others to lead on seats too. Don't buy that. ComRes do, as I read things, suggest a Tory seat lead but Lab leading on PV (were there a general election tomorrow). What do you suggest their two polls project?TheScreamingEagles said:
That in Lab/Con marginals, it is largely no change.BobaFett said:
Well what do they suggest then? Their national poll has Lab ahead, but no the marginals poll suggests no seats change hands?!?TheScreamingEagles said:
No.BobaFett said:No-one seems to have answered my query below.
Does ComRes therefore suggest a Labour lead on votes but a Tory lead on seats?
But there are other seats that will also determine the outcome ofe the next election.
I don't grasp @TSE's argument however – I don't see where Lab are supposed to glean a seats lead when all/nearly all Tory marginals stay blue.0 -
There is a substantial block of the electorate - perhaps 15% in 2010, probably 20% now - who are really "none of the above". These people wring their hands and complain about how the political class have failed them, and who believe we need a new type of politics, and politicians who listen to the people.DavidL said:
Those 2010 Lib Dems are a pretty fickle bunch! Did they have any idea what they were voting for? Do they now?anotherDave said:
In the Survation EU Parliament poll UKIP has 36% of 2010-LDs, Labour 12%, Con 10%, current-LD 31%Financier said:Looking at the YouGov 2010 splits, this morning for the LDs it is:
Cons: 15; LAB:27; LD: 39; UKIP:9; Green:7. If this was continued then it would show that more of the LD to LAB switch is returning.
For this year and using monthly averages, the LD to LAB support has dropped by about 4 points but the LD retention has dropped by about 1.5 points. The extra VI has gone to the Cons (2 pts) and UKIP and Green, (1.5 each)
(table 6, p.9)
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/May-voting-poll-Mirror-tables.pdf
In 2010, the LibDems filled this role. In 2015, UKIP is filling it.
The joy of being NOTA is that - so long as you are never sullied by actual power, and the inevitable compromises that involves - then you can continue to benefit from dissatisfaction - and (like the LibDems did in 2010 and before) you can be all things to all people.
Question for PBers: are there any councils where UKIP stands a good chance this time around of gaining power?0 -
Thanks, Richard, very interesting. I guess that interest will step up after the Euros are out of the way, though I know even hardened Labour people are saying they rather fancy having the long weekend off after 15 hours on the streets on Thursday (wimps!). If you'd like to post an update next week we'd all be interested.Richard_Tyndall said:Nick P
In response to your inquiry about Newark on the previous thread, this is a copy of what I posted a couple of days ago.
An amusing quirk about the daily YouGovs is that you sometimes get a sample which is detectably more or less grumpy than usual. Today's sample takes a more mellow view of nearly every aspect of ALL of Cameron, Miliband and Clegg - all MOE but quite consistent. Perhaps it's the sunshine.0 -
Hampstead liberals exist. But, they're much more numerous in places like Primrose Hill, Islington, Muswell Hill, and Stoke Newington.SandyRentool said:
So the "Hampstead liberal" is yet another piece of mythology. So who keeps buying all of those copies of the Guardian?rcs1000 said:
Of the three council wards that make up Hampstead proper, there are eight Conservative councillors, and one LibDem.Sean_F said:
Contrary to popular belief, Hampstead proper is reliably Conservative. It's Kilburn and Gospel Oak that provide a huge Labour vote. The Conservatives would have won on the pre-2010 boundaries.TOPPING said:
Chris Philp, not Phelps.Charles said:
WhySouthamObserver said:
This is a constituency I know pretty well. If the Tories get close next year they will win a substantial overall majority without any doubt at all. I would expect a very safe Labour hold.david_herdson said:
Which implies one or more of:Stuart_Dickson said:- "CON doing far better in the marginals than GB as a whole"
Err...
CON Target No. 1
Hampstead and Kilburn (Lab Maj = 42)
PP:
Lab 2/7
Con 7/2
LD 6/1
UKIP 80/1
- There's value in the Con price
- The ComRes figures are on the top side for the Tories in the marginals
- There are local factors in play in H&K.
I don't know the constituency, but met Chris Phelps on a train a few years ago - he did a pretty good job overall*. Admittedly - I'd assume - the LD would probably be more inclined than most to vote tactically, but Glenda is stepping down isn't she? Have the constituency boundaries changed in Labour's favour?
I'm just wondering why the same result in H&K next time wouldn't imply a broadly similar result nationally, all other things being equal
* I donated £250 to his campaign
edit: given that he (or his team) never wrote to say 'thank you' I'm unlikely to do so in future. A computer generated letter, a quick top&tail and a stamp doesn't cost much, folks.
Top man, went all out at GE2010 very organised on top of all the activity.
But H&K was not only a fiefdom for GJ but is chock-a-block of a) champagne socialists; and b) grim tower blocks. The latter are natural labour supporters (or were!) while the former are, um, natural labour supporters.
It will take a lot to shake off the feeling of H&Kers that they are not a noble outpost in the fight against the harsh tories.
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Hampstead is the home of hedge fund managers these days. You'll struggle to find a pleasant family house (of, say 2,000 square feet) for less than £3m. More realistically, you'll be writing a £4m cheque, especially if you want to be within 10 minutes walk of the village.SandyRentool said:So the "Hampstead liberal" is yet another piece of mythology. So who keeps buying all of those copies of the Guardian?
The UKIP vote in Hampstead will be very low (I don't even think they're standing in Hampstead or in SeanT's Primrose Hill). People who live in Hampstead (and St John's Wood... and Belsize Park) typically work in incredibly cosmopolitan businesses, where half or fewer of the employees are British.
Frankly, FT sales outnumber Guardian sales 10-to-1 in North West London. Frankly, La Monde and La Gazetta dela Sporta probably outsell the Guardian.0 -
Good spot.Pulpstar said:
@Thescreamingeagles Con Seats/Lab Votes is 100-1 with Paddy, you sure its less than a 1% chance given this poll ?TheScreamingEagles said:
That, and you can see the Tories losing seats to others as well.BobaFett said:
So Labour take enough seats from Others to lead on seats too. Don't buy that. ComRes do, as I read things, suggest a Tory seat lead but Lab leading on PV (were there a general election tomorrow). What do you suggest their two polls project?TheScreamingEagles said:
That in Lab/Con marginals, it is largely no change.BobaFett said:
Well what do they suggest then? Their national poll has Lab ahead, but no the marginals poll suggests no seats change hands?!?TheScreamingEagles said:
No.BobaFett said:No-one seems to have answered my query below.
Does ComRes therefore suggest a Labour lead on votes but a Tory lead on seats?
But there are other seats that will also determine the outcome ofe the next election.0 -
Booming good news today
Retail Sales key findings:
• In April 2014, the quantity bought in the retail industry increased by 6.9% compared with April 2013 and by 1.3% compared with March 2014. This was the highest year-on-year growth in the quantity bought since May 2004 and continued a pattern of year-on-year growth since early 2013.
• The underlying pattern, as expressed by the rolling three-month-on-three month growth rate, was one of growth, with the quantity bought increasing by 1.8%. This was the highest since March 2004 and was the 14th consecutive month of three month-on-three month growth in the quantity bought.
• With the exception of petrol stations, all stores saw year-on-year increases in sales volumes. Notably the food sector posted its strongest year-on-year growth since January 2002, increasing by 6.3%. Feedback from food store retailers suggested that a better than expected Easter and better weather conditions helped to boost sales.
• Food store retailers also suggested that promotions helped to boost sales and this was reflected in the slowing of average price growth in the food sector: consistent with the consumer prices index (CPI) published on 20 May 2014, the rate of food store price inflation decreased to 0.9%, down from 1.8% in March 2014. Food stores provided the main contribution to the fall in the all retail rate of store price inflation, which fell by 0.6% in April 2014.
• In April 2014, the amount spent in the retail industry increased by 6.2% compared with April 2013 and by 0.6% compared with March 2014. Non-seasonally adjusted data show that the average weekly spend in the retail industry in April 2014 was £7.0 billion compared with £6.5 billion in April 2013 and £6.8 billion in March 2014.
• Following a weak March, the amount spent online increased by 13.3% in April 2014 compared with April 2013 and by 2.6% compared with March 2014.
• Late data returns have resulted in above average revisions for March 2014. More detail on revisions can be found in the revisions section of the background notes.
another_richard will be having kittens. Expect Plato to return.0 -
@TSETheScreamingEagles said:
Good spot.Pulpstar said:
@Thescreamingeagles Con Seats/Lab Votes is 100-1 with Paddy, you sure its less than a 1% chance given this poll ?TheScreamingEagles said:
That, and you can see the Tories losing seats to others as well.BobaFett said:
So Labour take enough seats from Others to lead on seats too. Don't buy that. ComRes do, as I read things, suggest a Tory seat lead but Lab leading on PV (were there a general election tomorrow). What do you suggest their two polls project?TheScreamingEagles said:
That in Lab/Con marginals, it is largely no change.BobaFett said:
Well what do they suggest then? Their national poll has Lab ahead, but no the marginals poll suggests no seats change hands?!?TheScreamingEagles said:
No.BobaFett said:No-one seems to have answered my query below.
Does ComRes therefore suggest a Labour lead on votes but a Tory lead on seats?
But there are other seats that will also determine the outcome ofe the next election.
Inbox0 -
When Hampstead had its own parliamentary constituency it often returned a Tory. I well remember Geoffrey Finsberg being the MP there in the 70s and 80s. Jock Stallard in Saint Pancras North (us) and Frank Dobson in Saint Pancras South.SandyRentool said:
So the "Hampstead liberal" is yet another piece of mythology. So who keeps buying all of those copies of the Guardian?rcs1000 said:
Of the three council wards that make up Hampstead proper, there are eight Conservative councillors, and one LibDem.Sean_F said:
Contrary to popular belief, Hampstead proper is reliably Conservative. It's Kilburn and Gospel Oak that provide a huge Labour vote. The Conservatives would have won on the pre-2010 boundaries.TOPPING said:
Chris Philp, not Phelps.Charles said:
WhySouthamObserver said:
This is a constituency I know pretty well. If the Tories get close next year they will win a substantial overall majority without any doubt at all. I would expect a very safe Labour hold.david_herdson said:
Which implies one or more of:Stuart_Dickson said:- "CON doing far better in the marginals than GB as a whole"
Err...
CON Target No. 1
Hampstead and Kilburn (Lab Maj = 42)
PP:
Lab 2/7
Con 7/2
LD 6/1
UKIP 80/1
- There's value in the Con price
- The ComRes figures are on the top side for the Tories in the marginals
- There are local factors in play in H&K.
I don't know the constituency, but met Chris Phelps on a train a few years ago - he did a pretty good job overall*. Admittedly - I'd assume - the LD would probably be more inclined than most to vote tactically, but Glenda is stepping down isn't she? Have the constituency boundaries changed in Labour's favour?
I'm just wondering why the same result in H&K next time wouldn't imply a broadly similar result nationally, all other things being equal
* I donated £250 to his campaign
edit: given that he (or his team) never wrote to say 'thank you' I'm unlikely to do so in future. A computer generated letter, a quick top&tail and a stamp doesn't cost much, folks.
Top man, went all out at GE2010 very organised on top of all the activity.
But H&K was not only a fiefdom for GJ but is chock-a-block of a) champagne socialists; and b) grim tower blocks. The latter are natural labour supporters (or were!) while the former are, um, natural labour supporters.
It will take a lot to shake off the feeling of H&Kers that they are not a noble outpost in the fight against the harsh tories.
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Nothing there.Pulpstar said:
@TSETheScreamingEagles said:
Good spot.Pulpstar said:
@Thescreamingeagles Con Seats/Lab Votes is 100-1 with Paddy, you sure its less than a 1% chance given this poll ?TheScreamingEagles said:
That, and you can see the Tories losing seats to others as well.BobaFett said:
So Labour take enough seats from Others to lead on seats too. Don't buy that. ComRes do, as I read things, suggest a Tory seat lead but Lab leading on PV (were there a general election tomorrow). What do you suggest their two polls project?TheScreamingEagles said:
That in Lab/Con marginals, it is largely no change.BobaFett said:
Well what do they suggest then? Their national poll has Lab ahead, but no the marginals poll suggests no seats change hands?!?TheScreamingEagles said:
No.BobaFett said:No-one seems to have answered my query below.
Does ComRes therefore suggest a Labour lead on votes but a Tory lead on seats?
But there are other seats that will also determine the outcome ofe the next election.
Inbox0 -
The strong retail sales figures are entirely down to Easter. I wouldn't be reading too much into them. Tomorrow's GDP second estimate and PSNB figures are much more important. For retail sales the TTM growth is a more important metric as it eliminates volatility.0
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Only one day left till Britain speaks. Enough of the LibLabCon, tomorrow is when we send a message to the ruling clique that it's over.
Yes, tomorrow is polling day. Tomorrow is An Independence from Europe day!0 -
So who knows what to make a 42 vote majority for Lab at GE2010 now a 2/7 Lab chance in GE2015?SouthamObserver said:
When Hampstead had its own parliamentary constituency it often returned a Tory. I well remember Geoffrey Finsberg being the MP there in the 70s and 80s. Jock Stallard in Saint Pancras North (us) and Frank Dobson in Saint Pancras South.SandyRentool said:
So the "Hampstead liberal" is yet another piece of mythology. So who keeps buying all of those copies of the Guardian?rcs1000 said:
Of the three council wards that make up Hampstead proper, there are eight Conservative councillors, and one LibDem.Sean_F said:
Contrary to popular belief, Hampstead proper is reliably Conservative. It's Kilburn and Gospel Oak that provide a huge Labour vote. The Conservatives would have won on the pre-2010 boundaries.TOPPING said:
Chris Philp, not Phelps.Charles said:
WhySouthamObserver said:
This is a constituency I know pretty well. If the Tories get close next year they will win a substantial overall majority without any doubt at all. I would expect a very safe Labour hold.david_herdson said:
Which implies one or more of:Stuart_Dickson said:- "CON doing far better in the marginals than GB as a whole"
Err...
CON Target No. 1
Hampstead and Kilburn (Lab Maj = 42)
PP:
Lab 2/7
Con 7/2
LD 6/1
UKIP 80/1
I don't know the constituency, but met Chris Phelps on a train a few years ago - he did a pretty good job overall*. Admittedly - I'd assume - the LD would probably be more inclined than most to vote tactically, but Glenda is stepping down isn't she? Have the constituency boundaries changed in Labour's favour?
I'm just wondering why the same result in H&K next time wouldn't imply a broadly similar result nationally, all other things being equal
* I donated £250 to his campaign
edit: given that he (or his team) never wrote to say 'thank you' I'm unlikely to do so in future. A computer generated letter, a quick top&tail and a stamp doesn't cost much, folks.
Top man, went all out at GE2010 very organised on top of all the activity.
But H&K was not only a fiefdom for GJ but is chock-a-block of a) champagne socialists; and b) grim tower blocks. The latter are natural labour supporters (or were!) while the former are, um, natural labour supporters.
It will take a lot to shake off the feeling of H&Kers that they are not a noble outpost in the fight against the harsh tories.0 -
Ah yes, SeanT in Muswell Hill - it's that Europhilia that gives him away, y'know.Sean_F said:<
Hampstead liberals exist. But, they're much more numerous in places like Primrose Hill, Islington, Muswell Hill, and Stoke Newington.
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Twitter currently practicing the art of sarcasm on #WhyImVotingUkip - some of it childish, some of it parody.
https://twitter.com/hashtag/WhyImVotingUkip?f=realtime&src=tren0 -
In July 2012 a UKIP/Farage public meeting in Eastleigh attracted an audience of 80. Yesterday they attracted >500.
http://www.eastleighnews.co.uk/2014/05/farage-to-hold-public-meeting-at-fleming-park/
https://www.facebook.com/Notoeu/photos/a.471291522956549.1073741828.470462766372758/673037219448644/?type=1
http://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/11225585.Farage_meets_supporters_in_Hampshire/0 -
It's neck and neck whether SeanT would be more upset to be described as a Europhile or as living in Muswell Hill.NickPalmer said:
Ah yes, SeanT in Muswell Hill - it's that Europhilia that gives him away, y'know.Sean_F said:<
Hampstead liberals exist. But, they're much more numerous in places like Primrose Hill, Islington, Muswell Hill, and Stoke Newington.0 -
@Topping - Hampstead is a blue island surrounded by a red sea. Gospel Oak, Swiss Cottage and Kilburn are full of council estates and are very Labour. UKIP is not a factor.
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Now at 66-1...TheScreamingEagles said:
Good spot.Pulpstar said:
@Thescreamingeagles Con Seats/Lab Votes is 100-1 with Paddy, you sure its less than a 1% chance given this poll ?TheScreamingEagles said:
That, and you can see the Tories losing seats to others as well.BobaFett said:
So Labour take enough seats from Others to lead on seats too. Don't buy that. ComRes do, as I read things, suggest a Tory seat lead but Lab leading on PV (were there a general election tomorrow). What do you suggest their two polls project?TheScreamingEagles said:
That in Lab/Con marginals, it is largely no change.BobaFett said:
Well what do they suggest then? Their national poll has Lab ahead, but no the marginals poll suggests no seats change hands?!?TheScreamingEagles said:
No.BobaFett said:No-one seems to have answered my query below.
Does ComRes therefore suggest a Labour lead on votes but a Tory lead on seats?
But there are other seats that will also determine the outcome ofe the next election.0 -
Agreed. The sad truth is that a lot of people don't take their politics too seriously and just want a moan. Their fickleness is a risk for UKIP after tomorrow and an opportunity for the other parties.rcs1000 said:
There is a substantial block of the electorate - perhaps 15% in 2010, probably 20% now - who are really "none of the above". These people wring their hands and complain about how the political class have failed them, and who believe we need a new type of politics, and politicians who listen to the people.DavidL said:
Those 2010 Lib Dems are a pretty fickle bunch! Did they have any idea what they were voting for? Do they now?anotherDave said:
In the Survation EU Parliament poll UKIP has 36% of 2010-LDs, Labour 12%, Con 10%, current-LD 31%Financier said:Looking at the YouGov 2010 splits, this morning for the LDs it is:
Cons: 15; LAB:27; LD: 39; UKIP:9; Green:7. If this was continued then it would show that more of the LD to LAB switch is returning.
For this year and using monthly averages, the LD to LAB support has dropped by about 4 points but the LD retention has dropped by about 1.5 points. The extra VI has gone to the Cons (2 pts) and UKIP and Green, (1.5 each)
(table 6, p.9)
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/May-voting-poll-Mirror-tables.pdf
In 2010, the LibDems filled this role. In 2015, UKIP is filling it.
The joy of being NOTA is that - so long as you are never sullied by actual power, and the inevitable compromises that involves - then you can continue to benefit from dissatisfaction - and (like the LibDems did in 2010 and before) you can be all things to all people.
Question for PBers: are there any councils where UKIP stands a good chance this time around of gaining power?
0 -
It's amazing to think now, but a many of those houses within 10 minutes walk of Hampstead tube station were owned by Camden council back in the 80s and rented out. There are still a few around if you look carefully.rcs1000 said:
Hampstead is the home of hedge fund managers these days. You'll struggle to find a pleasant family house (of, say 2,000 square feet) for less than £3m. More realistically, you'll be writing a £4m cheque, especially if you want to be within 10 minutes walk of the village.SandyRentool said:So the "Hampstead liberal" is yet another piece of mythology. So who keeps buying all of those copies of the Guardian?
The UKIP vote in Hampstead will be very low (I don't even think they're standing in Hampstead or in SeanT's Primrose Hill). People who live in Hampstead (and St John's Wood... and Belsize Park) typically work in incredibly cosmopolitan businesses, where half or fewer of the employees are British.
Frankly, FT sales outnumber Guardian sales 10-to-1 in North West London. Frankly, La Monde and La Gazetta dela Sporta probably outsell the Guardian.
0 -
Yes I get that and I don't think UKIP is a factor but with the polls as they are and a recount-slim majority and losing their totemic MP I don't see how H&K is 2/7 for Lab.SouthamObserver said:@Topping - Hampstead is a blue island surrounded by a red sea. Gospel Oak, Swiss Cottage and Kilburn are full of council estates and are very Labour. UKIP is not a factor.
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I imagine both papers are outsold by Tabloids. North West London is more areas like Wembley, Harlesden, Cricklewood and Kilburn than Hampstead and Queen's Park.rcs1000 said:
Hampstead is the home of hedge fund managers these days. You'll struggle to find a pleasant family house (of, say 2,000 square feet) for less than £3m. More realistically, you'll be writing a £4m cheque, especially if you want to be within 10 minutes walk of the village.SandyRentool said:So the "Hampstead liberal" is yet another piece of mythology. So who keeps buying all of those copies of the Guardian?
The UKIP vote in Hampstead will be very low (I don't even think they're standing in Hampstead or in SeanT's Primrose Hill). People who live in Hampstead (and St John's Wood... and Belsize Park) typically work in incredibly cosmopolitan businesses, where half or fewer of the employees are British.
Frankly, FT sales outnumber Guardian sales 10-to-1 in North West London. Frankly, La Monde and La Gazetta dela Sporta probably outsell the Guardian.0 -
Got on at 100sPulpstar said:
Now at 66-1...TheScreamingEagles said:
Good spot.Pulpstar said:
@Thescreamingeagles Con Seats/Lab Votes is 100-1 with Paddy, you sure its less than a 1% chance given this poll ?TheScreamingEagles said:
That, and you can see the Tories losing seats to others as well.BobaFett said:
So Labour take enough seats from Others to lead on seats too. Don't buy that. ComRes do, as I read things, suggest a Tory seat lead but Lab leading on PV (were there a general election tomorrow). What do you suggest their two polls project?TheScreamingEagles said:
That in Lab/Con marginals, it is largely no change.BobaFett said:
Well what do they suggest then? Their national poll has Lab ahead, but no the marginals poll suggests no seats change hands?!?TheScreamingEagles said:
No.BobaFett said:No-one seems to have answered my query below.
Does ComRes therefore suggest a Labour lead on votes but a Tory lead on seats?
But there are other seats that will also determine the outcome ofe the next election.
0 -
Makes me feel old, I remember those jokes first time around.Grandiose said:Twitter currently practicing the art of sarcasm on #WhyImVotingUkip - some of it childish, some of it parody.
https://twitter.com/hashtag/WhyImVotingUkip?f=realtime&src=tren
And they went funny then!0 -
Good Morning all.
http://archbishop-cranmer.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/ukip-if-you-want-to-but-only.html
A pro UKIP blog that then tells you to vote Tory. But it's the comments below thatI love.
May personal forecast for UKIP tomorrow. EU 34.4% Locals 170 plus seats.0 -
A Lab/LD/SNP coalition in London? Another reason to vote Yes.SouthamObserver said:
True. I have to wait another year. Though I think we may get a pretty strong indicator tomorrow. If I am wrong, though, the thought of a Labour government under EdM is not a happy one. My hope remains a Lab/LD coalition, perhaps with a post-No SNP element to it too. A grown-up centre left alliance. Not a chance, is there?BobaFett said:
You haven't been proved correct at all – we haven't had a national election with him in charge as yet. Patience grasshopper!SouthamObserver said:
He may do! Christ, Ed is an embarrassment. I remember saying on the day he was elected that it was a very bad day for Labour. Sadly, I - and many, many others - have been proved correct.Charles said:
Does he know who the leader of the council is?SouthamObserver said:
Ed lives in the constituency next door.
(as for the rest: thanks)
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I imagine that the bookies are assuming, reasonably enough, that the LD vote is going to collapse and break strongly for Labour.TOPPING said:
Yes I get that and I don't think UKIP is a factor but with the polls as they are and a recount-slim majority and losing their totemic MP I don't see how H&K is 2/7 for Lab.SouthamObserver said:@Topping - Hampstead is a blue island surrounded by a red sea. Gospel Oak, Swiss Cottage and Kilburn are full of council estates and are very Labour. UKIP is not a factor.
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Yes. But I'm only talking about Hampstead, Belsize Park, Primrose Hill and St John's Wood.Socrates said:
I imagine both papers are outsold by Tabloids. North West London is more areas like Wembley, Harlesden, Cricklewood and Kilburn than Hampstead and Queen's Park.rcs1000 said:
Hampstead is the home of hedge fund managers these days. You'll struggle to find a pleasant family house (of, say 2,000 square feet) for less than £3m. More realistically, you'll be writing a £4m cheque, especially if you want to be within 10 minutes walk of the village.SandyRentool said:So the "Hampstead liberal" is yet another piece of mythology. So who keeps buying all of those copies of the Guardian?
The UKIP vote in Hampstead will be very low (I don't even think they're standing in Hampstead or in SeanT's Primrose Hill). People who live in Hampstead (and St John's Wood... and Belsize Park) typically work in incredibly cosmopolitan businesses, where half or fewer of the employees are British.
Frankly, FT sales outnumber Guardian sales 10-to-1 in North West London. Frankly, La Monde and La Gazetta dela Sporta probably outsell the Guardian.0 -
Got another e-mail from Boris this morning asking, in his slightly whimsical way, when I am planning to vote tomorrow.
I agree with those who say that the tories have been taking these elections much more seriously than Labour and that their Internet communication has improved out of all recognition. Don't forget the mass phone in with Dave either (which I couldn't make). There has been a real "trial run" in some of the things the tories have been doing. Has the much maligned Crosby been getting a grip?0 -
Hmm.
Toying with a potential early tip (still a bit wary about money stuff online, though the computer seems ok...).0 -
College is taking on Prince Charles.
First in their differing attitudes to Romania and Romanians.
Now in their attitudes to Putin.
This is a battle of intellectual heavyweights.0 -
Yes, and Nigel Farage attempted to repeat the 'David Cameron reneged on his cast-iron guarantee' lie on the Today programme this morning. To his credit, John Humphrys didn't let him get away with that one, whilst (for once) not interrupting every five seconds.Socrates said:Nick Clegg just repeated the millions of jobs dependent on EU lie again on TV....
Other than that, Farage spoke very well. Pressed on the fundamental hole at the centre of UKIP's position - the fact that they claim to want an In/Out referendum, yet are doing everything in their power to sabotage the Tory government which would deliver one - he repeated his belief that Ed Miliband will also promise a referendum. To give him his due, he didn't pussy-foot around on this, he was absolutely certain that Miliband will make such a commitment at the Labour conference in September. Unfortunately, Humphrys didn't ask him the obvious question: what if Miliband doesn't?
Ed M won't, of course.0 -
Pulpstar - Still want me to stick on a fiver?
Pp let me have £4.07 online which explains why it fell from 100/1 to 66/10 -
On topic: We shouldn't give too much credence to this poll. It's only one poll, the sample is small, and getting the weightings right on marginals polls is exceptionally tricky.0
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Aren't there a lot of council estates in Camden Town still?SeanT said:
I sent my postal vote yesterday (I expected to be out of the country this week). I can confirm there were no Kipper candidates for the ward of Camden Town with Primrose Hill.rcs1000 said:
Hampstead is the home of hedge fund managers these days. You'll struggle to find a pleasant family house (of, say 2,000 square feet) for less than £3m. More realistically, you'll be writing a £4m cheque, especially if you want to be within 10 minutes walk of the village.SandyRentool said:So the "Hampstead liberal" is yet another piece of mythology. So who keeps buying all of those copies of the Guardian?
The UKIP vote in Hampstead will be very low (I don't even think they're standing in Hampstead or in SeanT's Primrose Hill). People who live in Hampstead (and St John's Wood... and Belsize Park) typically work in incredibly cosmopolitan businesses, where half or fewer of the employees are British.
Frankly, FT sales outnumber Guardian sales 10-to-1 in North West London. Frankly, La Monde and La Gazetta dela Sporta probably outsell the Guardian.
Hampstead is now VERY posh, and must surely be Tory. I expect Belsize Park, Primrose Hill and maybe Camden Town to follow the same route, eventually - especially as Labour and the Lib Dems talk of bringing in a mansion tax.
It's Gospel Oak and the big council estates south of Mornington Crescent that keep Camden Labour.0 -
Nah, don't think he is saying that.Casino_Royale said:@DavidL - I understand. An extreme eurosceptic is someone who doesn't agree with your views on the EU.
I'd reckon that probably 90% of the Tory party is Eurosceptic in some degree. Many of them accept the benefits of being a member of the EU, but are increasingly concerned about the costs.
An extreme Eurosceptic is someone who either:
(a) Takes the position that membership of the EU is the only question that matters and should be the primary focus at all times. Clearly it cuts across many issues, but equally there is much that we can do to address issues even when there is an EU dimension. Arguably this could be described (a little unfairly) as the "Bill Cash" position
(b) Someone who would rather see a Europhilic party in power in the remote chance that at some indeterminant time in the future it will create the conditions where possibly maybe a pure blindingly-white party of perfect principle may win a majority in Parliament and lead us into the blessed land of milk and honey. Someone who will cut off their nose to spite their face, in other words: who prefers principled opposition to the realities and compromises of government0 -
I live in this constituency. The Tories have been very active for some time now - certainly in my area - as have the Lib Dems. Labour have been nowhere to be seen. I don't think you can assume that all the Lib Dem vote will go to Labour nor that it will necessarily collapse. In the local elections - and this where Labour run the Council - there has been zero activity by Labour. I am surprised by that. The fact that Ed M lives nearby is IMO irrelevant. Even amongst Labour sympathisers/supporters I have never heard a good word said for him - as leader - though personally he strikes me as nice enough.SouthamObserver said:
The LD vote will collapse and head primarily to Labour. UKIP will not be a factor. Labour will keep the votes it got in 2010 and has a very strong, active local organisation. Ed lives in the constituency next door.Charles said:
WhySouthamObserver said:
This is a constituency I know pretty well. If the Tories get close next year they will win a substantial overall majority without any doubt at all. I would expect a very safe Labour hold.david_herdson said:
Which implies one or more of:Stuart_Dickson said:- "CON doing far better in the marginals than GB as a whole"
Err...
CON Target No. 1
Hampstead and Kilburn (Lab Maj = 42)
PP:
Lab 2/7
Con 7/2
LD 6/1
UKIP 80/1
- There's value in the Con price
- The ComRes figures are on the top side for the Tories in the marginals
- There are local factors in play in H&K.
I don't know the constituency, but met Chris Phelps on a train a few years ago - he did a pretty good job overall*. Admittedly - I'd assume - the LD would probably be more inclined than most to vote tactically, but Glenda is stepping down isn't she? Have the constituency boundaries changed in Labour's favour?
I'm just wondering why the same result in H&K next time wouldn't imply a broadly similar result nationally, all other things being equal
* I donated £250 to his campaign
edit: given that he (or his team) never wrote to say 'thank you' I'm unlikely to do so in future. A computer generated letter, a quick top&tail and a stamp doesn't cost much, folks.
I would like to vote Lib Dem next time - to show solidarity with Majid Nawaz over the Jesus/Mo cartoon kerfuffle - but the pusillanimous response of the Lib Dem hierarchy and their failure to stand up - unequivocally - for free speech has put me off. If even the Liberal Democrats don't understand liberalism, what hope is there for the rest of us?0 -
"Whatever the outcome of the Indyref, there's going to be a major constitutional upheaval for the UK, and the era of asymmetrical devolution is over."
Wishful thinking there. What is to stop the next government giving us the same answer the last one did and carrying on? Aside from the Scots getting a few more powers and more control over money raised and spent there, I don't expect anything to change. If Labour get in with a small majority or in coalition with the Lib Dems, the only constitutional change will be another go at Clegg's HoL reforms.0 -
My rule of thumb is that half the Lib Dem vote will defect and that it will break 3:1 in favour of Labour over the Conservatives. (This ignores UKIP, but both the number of defectors and the ratio are loose assumptions anyway). On this basis, Labour start with a majority of over 4,000 in Hampstead & Kilburn.SouthamObserver said:
I imagine that the bookies are assuming, reasonably enough, that the LD vote is going to collapse and break strongly for Labour.TOPPING said:
Yes I get that and I don't think UKIP is a factor but with the polls as they are and a recount-slim majority and losing their totemic MP I don't see how H&K is 2/7 for Lab.SouthamObserver said:@Topping - Hampstead is a blue island surrounded by a red sea. Gospel Oak, Swiss Cottage and Kilburn are full of council estates and are very Labour. UKIP is not a factor.
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Mr. Llama, I quite agree.
Miss Cyclefree, top post. It's an interesting question as to whether media or Lib Dem cowardice over the Jesus and Mo cartoons is more contemptible.0 -
As do I :-)Cyclefree said:I live in this constituency. The Tories have been very active for some time now - certainly in my area - as have the Lib Dems. Labour have been nowhere to be seen. I don't think you can assume that all the Lib Dem vote will go to Labour nor that it will necessarily collapse. In the local elections - and this where Labour run the Council - there has been zero activity by Labour. I am surprised by that. The fact that Ed M lives nearby is IMO irrelevant. Even amongst Labour sympathisers/supporters I have never heard a good word said for him - as leader - though personally he strikes me as nice enough.
I would like to vote Lib Dem next time - to show solidarity with Majid Nawaz over the Jesus/Mo cartoon kerfuffle - but the pusillanimous response of the Lib Dem hierarchy and their failure to stand up - unequivocally - for free speech has put me off. If even the Liberal Democrats don't understand liberalism, what hope is there for the rest of us?
So far, I've seen two LibDem posters (both in West Hampstead), and see one guy (also a LibDem) handing out leaflets at Swiss Cottage tube.
The Conservatives have had a stall in Hampstead village some weekends.
No activity from Labour or UKIP as far as I can see.0 -
I am not ruling out a Tory victory. What I am saying is that if the Tories do win it will herald a an overall majority for them. I guess we'll find out a lot more after Thursday.Cyclefree said:
I live in this constituency. The Tories have been very active for some time now - certainly in my area - as have the Lib Dems. Labour have been nowhere to be seen. I don't think you can assume that all the Lib Dem vote will go to Labour nor that it will necessarily collapse. In the local elections - and this where Labour run the Council - there has been zero activity by Labour. I am surprised by that. The fact that Ed M lives nearby is IMO irrelevant. Even amongst Labour sympathisers/supporters I have never heard a good word said for him - as leader - though personally he strikes me as nice enough.SouthamObserver said:
The LD vote will collapse and head primarily to Labour. UKIP will not be a factor. Labour will keep the votes it got in 2010 and has a very strong, active local organisation. Ed lives in the constituency next door.Charles said:
WhySouthamObserver said:
This is a constituency I know pretty well. If the Tories get close next year they will win a substantial overall majority without any doubt at all. I would expect a very safe Labour hold.david_herdson said:
Which implies one or more of:Stuart_Dickson said:- "CON doing far better in the marginals than GB as a whole"
Err...
CON Target No. 1
Hampstead and Kilburn (Lab Maj = 42)
PP:
Lab 2/7
Con 7/2
LD 6/1
UKIP 80/1
- There's value in the Con price
- The ComRes figures are on the top side for the Tories in the marginals
- There are local factors in play in H&K.
I don't know the constituency, but met Chris Phelps on a train a few years ago - he did a pretty good job overall*. Admittedly - I'd assume - the LD would probably be more inclined than most to vote tactically, but Glenda is stepping down isn't she? Have the constituency boundaries changed in Labour's favour?
I'm just wondering why the same result in H&K next time wouldn't imply a broadly similar result nationally, all other things being equal
* I donated £250 to his campaign
edit: given that he (or his team) never wrote to say 'thank you' I'm unlikely to do so in future. A computer generated letter, a quick top&tail and a stamp doesn't cost much, folks.
I would like to vote Lib Dem next time - to show solidarity with Majid Nawaz over the Jesus/Mo cartoon kerfuffle - but the pusillanimous response of the Lib Dem hierarchy and their failure to stand up - unequivocally - for free speech has put me off. If even the Liberal Democrats don't understand liberalism, what hope is there for the rest of us?
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That's a really good point, but it's one reason why Ashcroft's approach is interesting.antifrank said:I'm not a great believer in marginals polls. Pollsters are used to weighting to produce balanced polls for national bases and marginals are not to be expected to follow that. It's not so much the sample size as the non-standard base that concerns me.
Also the Ashcroft marginals asks a two stage voting question – the latter seeking to ask respondees to focus on their own specific seat.
The differences between the two stages of that voting intention question have often been the most revealing.
In his marginals polls to date they've shown us that when prompted to consider their specific seat, 2010 Lib Dems are more likely to stick by the Lib Dems in Lib Dem/Conservative marginals and more likely to switch to Labour in Labour/Conservative marginals than when asked the standard question. By contrast, UKIP/Conservative swing voters have shown no such tactical awareness.
This is directly counter to DavidL's hope that the vote distribution efficiency of the Conservatives will improve relative to Labour's at the next election, so it will be an important result to look at in Ashcroft's latest poll on Saturday.0 -
That looks about right to me.antifrank said:
My rule of thumb is that half the Lib Dem vote will defect and that it will break 3:1 in favour of Labour over the Conservatives. (This ignores UKIP, but both the number of defectors and the ratio are loose assumptions anyway). On this basis, Labour start with a majority of over 4,000 in Hampstead & Kilburn.SouthamObserver said:
I imagine that the bookies are assuming, reasonably enough, that the LD vote is going to collapse and break strongly for Labour.TOPPING said:
Yes I get that and I don't think UKIP is a factor but with the polls as they are and a recount-slim majority and losing their totemic MP I don't see how H&K is 2/7 for Lab.SouthamObserver said:@Topping - Hampstead is a blue island surrounded by a red sea. Gospel Oak, Swiss Cottage and Kilburn are full of council estates and are very Labour. UKIP is not a factor.
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Maybe. But property prices have been skyrocketing here - and the Tories have started sending leaflets round talking about the Lib Dems support for the mansion tax, how they could even want to tax other valuables such as jewellery (no idea if this is true) and how they are the only ones opposing it.TOPPING said:
Chris Philp, not Phelps.Charles said:
WhySouthamObserver said:
This is a constituency I know pretty well. If the Tories get close next year they will win a substantial overall majority without any doubt at all. I would expect a very safe Labour hold.david_herdson said:
Which implies one or more of:Stuart_Dickson said:- "CON doing far better in the marginals than GB as a whole"
Err...
CON Target No. 1
Hampstead and Kilburn (Lab Maj = 42)
PP:
Lab 2/7
Con 7/2
LD 6/1
UKIP 80/1
- There's value in the Con price
- The ComRes figures are on the top side for the Tories in the marginals
- There are local factors in play in H&K.
I don't know the constituency, but met Chris Phelps on a train a few years ago - he did a pretty good job overall*. Admittedly - I'd assume - the LD would probably be more inclined than most to vote tactically, but Glenda is stepping down isn't she? Have the constituency boundaries changed in Labour's favour?
I'm just wondering why the same result in H&K next time wouldn't imply a broadly similar result nationally, all other things being equal
* I donated £250 to his campaign
edit: given that he (or his team) never wrote to say 'thank you' I'm unlikely to do so in future. A computer generated letter, a quick top&tail and a stamp doesn't cost much, folks.
Top man, went all out at GE2010 very organised on top of all the activity.
But H&K was not only a fiefdom for GJ but is chock-a-block of a) champagne socialists; and b) grim tower blocks. The latter are natural labour supporters (or were!) while the former are, um, natural labour supporters.
It will take a lot to shake off the feeling of H&Kers that they are not a noble outpost in the fight against the harsh tories.
In our area prices are below the threshold (depending on whom you believe) but they are not so far away that this couldn't change some people's votes. They are not the sort of people who have thousands of pounds lying around spare to pay another tax on their house, on top of the mortgage, council tax, VAT, parking permit, increased tax and NI rates etc etc.
The number of fantastically rich Guardian-reading champagne socialists in H&K may be over-estimated.
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Trouble is, SO, last time Labour thought "much harder about its world view, its policies, its relevance and its messaging" we ended up with Blair, the Iraq disaster, institutional corruption on a mediaeval Italian scale and, eventually, Gordon Brown.SouthamObserver said:In the end, I see something very positive coming out of Labour's current malaise. At some stage, the party - or the centre left generally - will be forced to think much harder about its world view, its policies, its relevance and its messaging...The rise of UKIP pleases me because it makes PR more likely and, hopefully, will make the Tories a more centrist party.
If the Tories become more centrist, I am not so sure it will be because of UKIP. In - largely - very effective Coalition with the LibDems, they have finally figured out that economic conservatism coupled with social liberalism is a virtuous and responsible place to be. The fact that the LibDems have been able to work with the Tories for five years assists this, as does UKIP by gladly absorbing what used to be the Tory party's vicious old men wing.
The greatest favour UKIP did the Tories was when they let in Neil Hamilton.0 -
I actually give the benefit of the doubt interpretation on Cameron's cast iron guarantee, but I don't think the alternative interpretation is a "lie". It's a reasonable interpretation. He said if he became PM he would give a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. Retrospective referendums have taken place before now, and he didn't explicitly rule such a thing out. Given that he made the pledge in 2007, knowing the treaty would in all likelihood come out before he could become PM, it was really pretty sloppy of him not to be more careful.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, and Nigel Farage attempted to repeat the 'David Cameron reneged on his cast-iron guarantee' lie on the Today programme this morning. To his credit, John Humphrys didn't let him get away with that one, whilst (for once) not interrupting every five seconds.Socrates said:Nick Clegg just repeated the millions of jobs dependent on EU lie again on TV....
Other than that, Farage spoke very well. Pressed on the fundamental hole at the centre of UKIP's position - the fact that they claim to want an In/Out referendum, yet are doing everything in their power to sabotage the Tory government which would deliver one - he repeated his belief that Ed Miliband will also promise a referendum. To give him his due, he didn't pussy-foot around on this, he was absolutely certain that Miliband will make such a commitment at the Labour conference in September. Unfortunately, Humphrys didn't ask him the obvious question: what if Miliband doesn't?
Ed M won't, of course.
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Leaving the EU isn't some sort of perfect unachievable principle. And staying in the EU isn't some necessary "reality of government". It's a choice by the parties in power.Charles said:
Nah, don't think he is saying that.Casino_Royale said:@DavidL - I understand. An extreme eurosceptic is someone who doesn't agree with your views on the EU.
I'd reckon that probably 90% of the Tory party is Eurosceptic in some degree. Many of them accept the benefits of being a member of the EU, but are increasingly concerned about the costs.
An extreme Eurosceptic is someone who either:
(a) Takes the position that membership of the EU is the only question that matters and should be the primary focus at all times. Clearly it cuts across many issues, but equally there is much that we can do to address issues even when there is an EU dimension. Arguably this could be described (a little unfairly) as the "Bill Cash" position
(b) Someone who would rather see a Europhilic party in power in the remote chance that at some indeterminant time in the future it will create the conditions where possibly maybe a pure blindingly-white party of perfect principle may win a majority in Parliament and lead us into the blessed land of milk and honey. Someone who will cut off their nose to spite their face, in other words: who prefers principled opposition to the realities and compromises of government0 -
Any investigative journalist wanting to make his or her name could do worse than spend some time going through the planning applications of the last few years of inner London boroughs.SeanT said:
Depends what you mean by Camden Town, of course.Socrates said:
Aren't there a lot of council estates in Camden Town still?SeanT said:
I sent my postal vote yesterday (I expected to be out of the country this week). I can confirm there were no Kipper candidates for the ward of Camden Town with Primrose Hill.rcs1000 said:
Hampstead is the home of hedge fund managers these days. You'll struggle to find a pleasant family house (of, say 2,000 square feet) for less than £3m. More realistically, you'll be writing a £4m cheque, especially if you want to be within 10 minutes walk of the village.SandyRentool said:So the "Hampstead liberal" is yet another piece of mythology. So who keeps buying all of those copies of the Guardian?
The UKIP vote in Hampstead will be very low (I don't even think they're standing in Hampstead or in SeanT's Primrose Hill). People who live in Hampstead (and St John's Wood... and Belsize Park) typically work in incredibly cosmopolitan businesses, where half or fewer of the employees are British.
Frankly, FT sales outnumber Guardian sales 10-to-1 in North West London. Frankly, La Monde and La Gazetta dela Sporta probably outsell the Guardian.
Hampstead is now VERY posh, and must surely be Tory. I expect Belsize Park, Primrose Hill and maybe Camden Town to follow the same route, eventually - especially as Labour and the Lib Dems talk of bringing in a mansion tax.
It's Gospel Oak and the big council estates south of Mornington Crescent that keep Camden Labour.
Within a mile of the Tube there are quite a few council properties, but Right to Buy is slowly eroding them, AIUI.
Relatedly there is a new block of flats being built (very very slowly) right next door to me on Delancey St, where it meets Parkway and Primrose Hill. It used to be a tyre garage.
Planning permission for this development was granted, in 2010, on the basis that these would be 100% affordable homes for key workers.
And yet, somehow, somewhere along the line, that "affordable houses" thing got quietly dropped, as the Camden property market accelerated. I spoke to the site manager a month ago and he confirmed that all the flats will now be sold privately, with the one bedroom flats probably going on the market at around £700,000.
There aren't many nurses who can afford a £700,000 one bed flat.
Curious.0 -
An extreme Eurosceptic is one that believes that Labour, Conservative and Lib Dem politicians should be hanged by the neck until dead, and that their voters are guilty of aiding and abetting treason.0
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You're assuming that the Guardian is a liberal newspaper. Try reading some of the columnists. Illiberal would be a more apt description.SandyRentool said:
So the "Hampstead liberal" is yet another piece of mythology. So who keeps buying all of those copies of the Guardian?rcs1000 said:
Of the three council wards that make up Hampstead proper, there are eight Conservative councillors, and one LibDem.Sean_F said:
Contrary to popular belief, Hampstead proper is reliably Conservative. It's Kilburn and Gospel Oak that provide a huge Labour vote. The Conservatives would have won on the pre-2010 boundaries.TOPPING said:
Chris Philp, not Phelps.Charles said:
WhySouthamObserver said:
This is a constituency I know pretty well. If the Tories get close next year they will win a substantial overall majority without any doubt at all. I would expect a very safe Labour hold.david_herdson said:
Which implies one or more of:Stuart_Dickson said:- "CON doing far better in the marginals than GB as a whole"
Err...
CON Target No. 1
Hampstead and Kilburn (Lab Maj = 42)
PP:
Lab 2/7
Con 7/2
LD 6/1
UKIP 80/1
- There's value in the Con price
- The ComRes figures are on the top side for the Tories in the marginals
- There are local factors in play in H&K.
I don't know the constituency, but met Chris Phelps on a train a few years ago - he did a pretty good job overall*. Admittedly - I'd assume - the LD would probably be more inclined than most to vote tactically, but Glenda is stepping down isn't she? Have the constituency boundaries changed in Labour's favour?
I'm just wondering why the same result in H&K next time wouldn't imply a broadly similar result nationally, all other things being equal
* I donated £250 to his campaign
edit: given that he (or his team) never wrote to say 'thank you' I'm unlikely to do so in future. A computer generated letter, a quick top&tail and a stamp doesn't cost much, folks.
Top man, went all out at GE2010 very organised on top of all the activity.
But H&K was not only a fiefdom for GJ but is chock-a-block of a) champagne socialists; and b) grim tower blocks. The latter are natural labour supporters (or were!) while the former are, um, natural labour supporters.
It will take a lot to shake off the feeling of H&Kers that they are not a noble outpost in the fight against the harsh tories.
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Good morning all.
A really interesting discussion this morning involving contributors such as @SouthamObserver and @DavidL about the impact of UKIP on the Conservative Party.
I am fascinated by brands and wonder if there is any example in other walks of life beyond politics of a brand that got a boost by default because it was looked at more positively in comparison to another? Maybe supermarkets who re-position themselves based on the competition around product value or product quality?
My initial views on the UKIP-Conservative relationship are by no means fully formed and I guess I am trying to be optimistic as a Conservative supporter in this post that there can be a positive for the party from UKIP's rise. After all, it has happened and is happening so there is little point in ignoring it. Rather maximise the opportunities.
With this in mind, I do think there can be a positive side for the Conservative Party from UKIP's rise, but it is fraught with risks.
A political party's identity is undoubtedly shaped by what they say and do, but we should not discount the impact of what others say about it and the way in which voters look at the political spectrum as a whole, make comparative assessments based on policy and perceived party identity, before casting their vote.
Whether it is fair to regard UKIP as the nasty party or not, as with the Conservatives it is a label that if it sticks can be hard to shake off. Now if the Conservatives are seen as less nasty by default in comparison to UKIP and thus for more voters the worry about voting for them diminishes, this opens opportunities for people to vote for them and the centre-right.
Where I perhaps differ from a poster like SouthamObserver (my apologies if I misread you here) is that I do not see this process as involving the Conservatives dumping on mass conservative policies. Instead here UKIP's rise may offer another opportunity as they provide a mechanism through which some conservative policies are highlighted by them, and if they are popular (and crucially both work and fit the Conservative Party's principles), then can be essentially stolen by the Conservative Party themselves. I guess it is a little bit like sub-contracting out some policy making to other parties, which every party does. UKIP then can test the waters on conservative policies and the Conservative Party reap some benefits from that.
At this point I should stress this cannot be the only way or even the main way to determine policy. A party should and must have the confidence and courage to say 'this is what we believe and this is why you should vote for it'; but we would be naive to think this always happens and universally.
cont../0 -
Gah My Dads putting the bet on but he's bloody slow aaaaaaaaaaargghTheScreamingEagles said:Pulpstar - Still want me to stick on a fiver?
Pp let me have £4.07 online which explains why it fell from 100/1 to 66/10 -
cont../
Now there are risks of course with this analysis. The election of a UKIP MP would be an interesting development, how UKIP votes fall in marginals is going to be key, and this strategy assumes MP and membership support in the face of UKIP's continued prominence. It is a strategy that needs patience and ultimately will also require the Conservative Party to deal with the other reputation (largely falsely I should add in my view) that it is an 'out of touch, posh, southern party'. This is a task where the emphasis on empowering policies, the sort that MPs like Robert Halfon highlight is useful. Finally, the party also needs to think how it functions in campaigning terms in the long term, where some members move to UKIP.
If this strategy worked, then I think the Conservatives can broaden their appeal and eventually in the medium term begin to win back some support from UKIP who want to influence policy and get in power. Defections from UKIP to the Conservatives could even take place too!0 -
Mr. Pulpstar, parents are like that.
Mr. Antifrank, precisely. A moderate EU-sceptic is one who thinks Nick Clegg should be thrown into the North Sea by a trebuchet.0 -
Does that include being "hung" ; )antifrank said:An extreme Eurosceptic is one that believes that Labour, Conservative and Lib Dem politicians should be hanged by the neck until dead, and that their voters are guilty of aiding and abetting treason.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10839448/My-rivals-should-be-hanged-for-treason-says-Ukip-candidate.html0 -
Whilst I agree in principle on the subsidiarity of the Retail Sales figures to GDP and PSNB, April's figures do not just reflect the Easter Weekend falling in April rather than March this year.MaxPB said:The strong retail sales figures are entirely down to Easter. I wouldn't be reading too much into them. Tomorrow's GDP second estimate and PSNB figures are much more important. For retail sales the TTM growth is a more important metric as it eliminates volatility.
The 'most recent three months on a year earlier' figures, which eliminate the Easter timing issue, show extremely robust growth of 4.6% value and 5.0% volume. These are growth rates not seen since the early noughties.
One impact of retail sales growth which is unlikely to be picked up in tomorrow's figures is the impact on VAT receipts by the Treasury. The ONS and OBR usually take a conservative estimate of VAT receipts in early releases and subsequent revisions tend to see the figures uprated when retail sales grow faster than GDP. This especially applies when growth in non-food sales has outpaced that of food as has been the case in most months over the past year (but not April 2014).0 -
Hung politicians belong more on the pages of the tabloids, preferably with testimonials from the Cheeky Girls.SimonStClare said:
Does that include being "hung" ; )antifrank said:An extreme Eurosceptic is one that believes that Labour, Conservative and Lib Dem politicians should be hanged by the neck until dead, and that their voters are guilty of aiding and abetting treason.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10839448/My-rivals-should-be-hanged-for-treason-says-Ukip-candidate.html0 -
@isam; @Bobafett; @Thescreamingeagles
Have the position I want on this market now. ~ £7 @71-1 - well I wanted 100s but hey ho.
I reckon this will be at 15-1 after the Ashcroft polling comes out.0 -
That's a slightly narrower definition than I had in mind.antifrank said:An extreme Eurosceptic is one that believes that Labour, Conservative and Lib Dem politicians should be hanged by the neck until dead, and that their voters are guilty of aiding and abetting treason.
Charles is nearer it in pointing out for the extreme Eurosceptic this is the dominating issue and for most of us it just isn't. Doesn't mean it is not important, doesn't mean we are happy with the status quo, doesn't mean we even rule out the idea of leaving the EU if it did not develop to our advantage. Just not the big overriding issue.
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I am fascinated by brands and wonder if there is any example in other walks of life beyond politics of a brand that got a boost by default because it was looked at more positively in comparison to another?
Ryanair and Easyjet?0 -
I looked at a flat in Royal College Street a couple years back, and some of the estates round the corner there seemed pretty grim.SeanT said:
Depends what you mean by Camden Town, of course.
Within a mile of the Tube there are quite a few council properties, but Right to Buy is slowly eroding them, AIUI.
Relatedly there is a new block of flats being built (very very slowly) right next door to me on Delancey St, where it meets Parkway and Primrose Hill. It used to be a tyre garage.
Planning permission for this development was granted, in 2010, on the basis that these would be 100% affordable homes for key workers.
And yet, somehow, somewhere along the line, that "affordable houses" thing got quietly dropped, as the Camden property market accelerated. I spoke to the site manager a month ago and he confirmed that all the flats will now be sold privately, with the one bedroom flats probably going on the market at around £700,000.
There aren't many nurses who can afford a £700,000 one bed flat.
Curious.0 -
Having just seen this article in the Standard, it is amazing that they are letting Ed out at the moment. Anyone with any knowledge of how things work would never allow a political leader to be seen eating like this in public.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband-tucks-into-a-bacon-sandwich-on-a-morning-trip-to-buy-flowers-for-his-wife-9407561.html
There is no way to look dignified when scoffing a sarnie - and the photos make it look even worse!0 -
@SouthamObserver
Thanks, yes an interesting example there regarding airlines.
Ultimately I think what I have taken from your posts is that in political positioning at least UKIP's rise could help the Conservatives. As I note, where I think I will disagree with you is that I don't think this must or indeed should mean the Conservatives become less of a Conservative Party. I think they need to recognise and deal with the anti-establishment and liberal elite challenge facing all parties and reconnect more with the country as a whole. The UKIP rise may actually help them to do this more effectively though, which would be a good thing.0 -
If the newspapers are reduced to printing "man eats sandwich" gaffes, it's hardly surprising that they're losing money hand over fist.0
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WRT Camden et al, one of the curious features of Inner London is the existence of council-owned tower blocks, adjoining multi-million pound houses.0
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The number of lefty "Don't vote UKIP they eat babies" I'm seeing on Facebook is severely bringing out my contrarian side.
Toss up between the Cons and UKIP atm for the Euros.0 -
It's not just meat, it's bacon. This is not an accident. There's a significant anti-Semitic vote out there that Labour is happy to accept or at the very least feels it needs to neutralise; remember the Michael Howard ads.antifrank said:If the newspapers are reduced to printing "man eats sandwich" gaffes, it's hardly surprising that they're losing money hand over fist.
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Mr. Simon, nothing wrong with eating a bacon sarnie.
Not a great photo, but not as bad as David Miliband shaking Brown's hand.0 -
IIRC HM Samuel and Argos experienced a boost after Gerald Ratner described his own products as a bit Ed Miliband crapSouthamObserver said:I am fascinated by brands and wonder if there is any example in other walks of life beyond politics of a brand that got a boost by default because it was looked at more positively in comparison to another?
Ryanair and Easyjet?
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Today's Retail Sales figures yellow boxed:
============================================================
Table 1: All Retailing, April 2014
(seasonally adjusted percentage change)
Most recent Most recent Most recent Most recent
month 3 months month 3 months
on a year on a year on previous on previous
earlier earlier month 3 months
------------------------------------------------------------
Amount 6.2 4.6 0.6 1.1
spent
(Value)
Quantity 6.9 5.0 1.3 1.8
bought
(Volume)
Value 7.6 5.8 1.0 1.3
excluding
automotive
fuel
Volume 7.7 5.5 1.8 1.7
excluding
automotive
fuel
============================================================0 -
I in Lisbon at the moment, we actually have loudspeaker vans campaigning in the Euros0
This discussion has been closed.