politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corporeal on The Passion of the Ukippers

Yeah and she's an MSP as well Stuart Dickson

Scotland Has No Problem With Homophobia

MrJones said:

isam said:

As if by magic...

"A mass brawl erupted between rivalling groups of youths who clashed in an area where former Home Secretary David Blunkett warned of rioting due to the high influx of Roma immigrants.

One local said: ‘Members of the existing community are tired and quite frankly frightened at the swiftness of how the situation became enflamed.

‘Council and Government agencies need to be aware of the truth and how the decent residents of this troubled district need support and assurance that they are safe to walk the streets.’ "

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2634014/Mass-brawl-erupts-rival-groups-youths-area-former-Home-Secretary-David-Blunkett-warned-rioting-influx-Roma-immigrants.html#ixzz32HazYHbZ
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lol at one of the comments

"it can't be that serious, the police have turned up"

From Vince Pinner! Maybe the Roma's and the Asians are Just Good Friends really

Actually, we're just away to watch a DVD, SD, so don't expect a reply too soon, but I should be back c. poll time.

edmundintokyo said:

This is completely circular: "Why don't you think this is democratically valid? Because there's no demos. What decides whether there's a demos? Whether I think it's democratically valid."

No, it's not circular, it is two ways of expressing the same concept.

Speedy said:

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

Excellent post. If turnout were forecast to be 45%+, Labour were actively campaigning and the clear 'anti-UKIP' choice by voters and the media, then I'd be tempted.

My hunch is that's not going to happen. Yes, I am slightly nervous about Labour (I always am when I stake money on my hunches) but of all my friends who hate UKIP I can't recall a single one who's declared they will vote in the Euros to stop them, yet alone pick Labour as the party best placed to stop then coming top.

On the other hand, UKIP supporters are uber-motivated and believe that this is their time. I think they're right - but it could be close.

Amongst my circle of acquaintances, I've noticed several friendships put under strain, over whether people are pro or anti UKIP. I've never experienced anything like that in an election campaign before. Have you experienced this?

Can you elucidate?

I think the amount of vitriol poured on UKIP by the media over months, has created a toxic atmosphere of political fanaticism in Britain that is mostly seen in the middle east. I'm surpised we haven't seen people killed in the streets because they support UKIP, but deadly clashes are always one step away when fanatics take over.

It's weird. You get the feel of the months leading up to a civil war.

initforthemoney said:

PfP: is URW literally deceased or were you lamenting his disappearance from these parts?

Literally, I'm afraid. One of the greats. He died in September of last year.

On topic, are Kippers really as vehement as they tell pollsters they are? I have my doubts.

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

Excellent post. If turnout were forecast to be 45%+, Labour were actively campaigning and the clear 'anti-UKIP' choice by voters and the media, then I'd be tempted.

My hunch is that's not going to happen. Yes, I am slightly nervous about Labour (I always am when I stake money on my hunches) but of all my friends who hate UKIP I can't recall a single one who's declared they will vote in the Euros to stop them, yet alone pick Labour as the party best placed to stop then coming top.

On the other hand, UKIP supporters are uber-motivated and believe that this is their time. I think they're right - but it could be close.

Amongst my circle of acquaintances, I've noticed several friendships put under strain, over whether people are pro or anti UKIP. I've never experienced anything like that in an election campaign before. Have you experienced this?

Yes, absolutely. I posted something on facebook saying those attacking UKIP were missing the point. It stirred up a hornet's nest. Another friend also posted an anti-UKIP post (where students shouted f-off back to Toad Hall) and I posted a comment criticising it, and said it would backfire.

He then said I wasn't UKIP's target audience. When I admitted I had met Farage, and was thinking of voting for him, he got a bit upset. He phoned me to complain about my comment and seemed quite emotional.

To be honest, I'm now keeping my head down for these reasons. I don't know what that says about me.

Stuart_Dickson said:

The PB Tories

The original defitnion of PB Tory is "poster who won a bet with tim"

So how does that work then?

Good evening, everyone.

Shade grumpy on here.

I do agree there is an odd air around UKIP and the unified attacks by the big three parties and much of the media against the party.

I am sorry to hear about Mr. URW.

Sean_F said:

Speedy said:

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

Excellent post. If turnout were forecast to be 45%+, Labour were actively campaigning and the clear 'anti-UKIP' choice by voters and the media, then I'd be tempted.

It's weird. You get the feel of the months leading up to a civil war.

Sean, read "The Road to National Suicide" by Enoch Powell..

Here it is.. He made the speech 38 years ago, and it could have been written about this election campaign...

"Throughout the last twenty years, locally at first, then nationally, one
political subject has been different from all the rest in the persistence with
which it has endured and the profound and absorbing preoccupation
which it has increasingly held for the public. This is all the more remarkable
because of the sedulous determination with which this subject has been kept,
as far as possible, out of parliamentary debate, and the use which has been
made of every device—from legal penalty to trade union proscription—to
prevent the open discussion and ventilation of it. No social or political penalty,
no threat of private ostracism or public violence, has been spared against those
who have nevertheless continued to describe what hundreds of thousands of
their fellow citizens daily saw and experienced and to voice the fears for the
future by which those fellow citizens were haunted. The efforts that were made
during the 1930s to silence, ridicule, or denounce those who warned of the
coming war with the fascist dictatorships and who called for the peril to be
recognized and met before too late, provide but a pale and imperfect precedent.
In all this suppression more than one powerful motive can be seen at
work. On the one hand there is the primitive but widespread superstition that
if danger is not mentioned, it will go away, or even that it is created by being
identified and can therefore be destroyed again by being left in silence. Akin
to this is the natural resentment of ordinary people, but especially of politicians,
at being forced to face an appalling prospect with no readily procurable happy
ending. The custom of killing messengers who bring bad news is not confined
to the kings and tyrants of antiquity or of fiction. On the other hand there are
at work the dark motives of those who desire the catastrophic outcome which
they foresee. All round the world in various forms the same formula for
rending societies apart is being prepared and applied, by ignorance or design,
and there are those who are determined to see to it that Britain shall no longer
be able to escape. I marvel sometimes that people should be so innocently blind
to this nihilism."

http://toqonline.com/archives/v3n3/TOQv3n3Powell.pdf

Scott_P said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

The PB Tories

The original defitnion of PB Tory is "poster who won a bet with tim"

So how does that work then?

..... or more probably lost a bet with tim ....... no mean punter him.

Just done a YouGov poll with these forced choice questions, including the option to vote for any of the top 4 parties.

Looking ahead to next year’s general election, suppose you lived in a constituency where you thought the only parties with a realistic chance of winning locally were CONSERVATIVE or LABOUR, how would you vote?

And suppose you lived in a constituency where you thought the only parties with a realistic chance of winning locally were CONSERVATIVE or the LIBERAL DEMOCRATS, how would you vote?

And suppose you lived in a constituency where you thought the only parties with a realistic chance of winning locally were LABOUR or the LIBERAL DEMOCRATS, how would you vote?

Hopefully they're public results.

isam said:

Sean, read "The Road to National Suicide" by Enoch Powell..

Here it is.. He made the speech 38 years ago, and it could have been written about this election campaign...

"Throughout the last twenty years, locally at first, then nationally, one
political subject has been different from all the rest in the persistence with
which it has endured and the profound and absorbing preoccupation
which it has increasingly held for the public. This is all the more remarkable
because of the sedulous determination with which this subject has been kept,
as far as possible, out of parliamentary debate, and the use which has been
made of every device—from legal penalty to trade union proscription—to
prevent the open discussion and ventilation of it. No social or political penalty,
no threat of private ostracism or public violence, has been spared against those
who have nevertheless continued to describe what hundreds of thousands of
their fellow citizens daily saw and experienced and to voice the fears for the
future by which those fellow citizens were haunted. The efforts that were made
during the 1930s to silence, ridicule, or denounce those who warned of the
coming war with the fascist dictatorships and who called for the peril to be
recognized and met before too late, provide but a pale and imperfect precedent.
In all this suppression more than one powerful motive can be seen at
work. On the one hand there is the primitive but widespread superstition that
if danger is not mentioned, it will go away, or even that it is created by being
identified and can therefore be destroyed again by being left in silence. Akin
to this is the natural resentment of ordinary people, but especially of politicians,
at being forced to face an appalling prospect with no readily procurable happy
ending. The custom of killing messengers who bring bad news is not confined
to the kings and tyrants of antiquity or of fiction. On the other hand there are
at work the dark motives of those who desire the catastrophic outcome which
they foresee. All round the world in various forms the same formula for
rending societies apart is being prepared and applied, by ignorance or design,
and there are those who are determined to see to it that Britain shall no longer
be able to escape. I marvel sometimes that people should be so innocently blind
to this nihilism."

http://toqonline.com/archives/v3n3/TOQv3n3Powell.pdf

That's the point, though. Powell thought it was the great an unquenchable issue of his own age, now you're suggesting it's the issue of our own. Few looking back would say that Powell was right: few opponents of immigration point towards the immigration of the 60s or 70s. Yet he was content to paint the picture he did of "the dark motives of those who desire the catastrophic outcome which they foresee" (!)

Stuart_Dickson said:

If you are like some of my English pals then you will be voting Yes because you self-identify as English, not despite of it.

That's true to some extent (the WLQ needs a decent answer, and the calls for greater devolution in the event of a no vote would make the failure to answer it even more glaring). But I'd vote for independence for Argyll & Bute too. I'm pretty hellbent on bringing power close to home. Thus, I'll be voting UKIP on Thursday. It seems a more logically coherent aproach to independence than that of either UKIP or the SNP.

Grandiose said:

isam said:

Sean, read "The Road to National Suicide" by Enoch Powell..

Here it is.. He made the speech 38 years ago, and it could have been written about this election campaign..

That's the point, though. Powell thought it was the great an unquenchable issue of his own age, now you're suggesting it's the issue of our own. Few looking back would say that Powell was right: few opponents of immigration point towards the immigration of the 60s or 70s. Yet he was content to paint the picture he did of "the dark motives of those who desire the catastrophic outcome which they foresee" (!)

I could give many examples of how he was extremely accurate, but its an argument I have had too many times.

Agree to disagree

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

Excellent post. If turnout were forecast to be 45%+, Labour were actively campaigning and the clear 'anti-UKIP' choice by voters and the media, then I'd be tempted.

My hunch is that's not going to happen. Yes, I am slightly nervous about Labour (I always am when I stake money on my hunches) but of all my friends who hate UKIP I can't recall a single one who's declared they will vote in the Euros to stop them, yet alone pick Labour as the party best placed to stop then coming top.

On the other hand, UKIP supporters are uber-motivated and believe that this is their time. I think they're right - but it could be close.

Amongst my circle of acquaintances, I've noticed several friendships put under strain, over whether people are pro or anti UKIP. I've never experienced anything like that in an election campaign before. Have you experienced this?

Yes, absolutely. I posted something on facebook saying those attacking UKIP were missing the point. It stirred up a hornet's nest. Another friend also posted an anti-UKIP post (where students shouted f-off back to Toad Hall) and I posted a comment criticising it, and said it would backfire.

He then said I wasn't UKIP's target audience. When I admitted I had met Farage, and was thinking of voting for him, he got a bit upset. He phoned me to complain about my comment and seemed quite emotional.

To be honest, I'm now keeping my head down for these reasons. I don't know what that says about me.

That's a tough one. Avoiding religion and politics is generally a sound idea to avoid ill feeling. Should you make an exception during elections and Easter?

If you don't think the other person is capable of keeping their emotions in check, I'd avoid it.

corporeal said:

anotherDave said:

corporeal said:

Socrates said:

edmundintokyo said:

The Austrian ski-instructor currently _does_ have a say in setting British taxes, and most British people would agree if they thought about it, as do the three main British parties. (You don't want small EU countries setting crazy-low VAT rates and screwing the British taxpayer, so the EU harmonizes them, and the Austrian ski-instructor has as much input into the rates they allow as anyone else.)

So you're no longer basing your views on what British people actually think but what you're just sure they would think, if they thought about it, because if they did that, they would adopt your views?

Surely someone as bright as yourself can see the barminess of this logic?

Iirc the current polling shows a lead for staying in the European Union.

So the best information we have say that British people would vote for Austrian ski instructors to have a say over some of their taxes and laws.

That depends on the pollster.

http://news.opinium.co.uk/opinium-blog/eu-neutrals-err-side-leaving

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_referendum_on_United_Kingdom_membership_of_the_European_Union#2014_2

Seems to show a definite recent movement towards staying in.

One of the detailed results of the Welsh political barometer (I've got a thread coming on it) is as UKIP's poll ratings have risen there's been a corresponding rise in support for staying in the EU.

Mr Hannan wrote a piece on that. His line was that UKIP was using the wrong argument.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100270107/if-it-comes-down-to-immigration-versus-investment-eurosceptics-will-lose/

I think the 'polling says stay' line may just be a YouGov thing. Opinium, Survation, and TNS all show a majority to 'leave', but YouGov publishes more polls.

Ishmael_X said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. X, Mr. Dickson, let's not argue about who killed who, this is meant to be a happy occasion.

I will reign in my displeasure, and permit peace and harmony to rein over the site undisturbed.

I am (as of quite recently) Dr. X by the way. Can't bring myself to use it in real life but Dr. X alludes pleasingly to one of my favourite films.

Congratulations. It is a sign of a great deal of hard work and thought brought to successful completion. And if you did it as a mature student or part-timer, doubly so. The next step is to publish?

You might still want to use it in real life, all the same. The new improved moniker impresses bank managers, if nothing else (or at least it used to). And it is often advisable to be absolutely consistent in precisely how you call yourself, lest you end up with problems with automated databases and the like.

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

It was much the same between 1979 and 1993, especially during things like the Miners strike, you had two completly different sets of ideology and people had arguments in pubs, fell out and occasionally came to blows over the subject of politics.

The last few years have been quite dull as both labour and tories abandoned their positions and embraced aspects of liberalism and we had broadly speaking three variants of liberalism on offer with anyone disagreeing disenfranchised other than minor parties who were so extreme that they put ordinary people off. UKIP have now come along and prized open the bottle giving a clear ideological choice for the first time in years, possibly since the 1987 election.

I do wonder whether certain centre right newspapers are going to suffer permanent circulation damage as a result of the anti UKIP smear campaign which would do credit to zanu-pf at a time when online alternatives such as breitbart are now available.

Ed West has a lovely line in his article today:

"...I don’t necessarily want conservative social values to triumph, but I do want them to be a counterweight to liberal ones, and the Tory policy of pre-emptive surrender isn’t entirely effective."

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/05/why-people-will-be-voting-for-ukip-this-thursday/

Agree with you about the newspapers. It'll be interesting to see if all this affects buying/reading behaviour.

Congratulations, Dr. X.

Of course, if you want to run your own mutant academy you'll need to become a professor.

Unsurprisingly, Andrew Mitchell's letter to the Commissioner of the Police of the Metropolis will change little. That Metropolitan Police officers leaked PC Rowland's account of the incident in Downing Street, and may have had a political motive for doing so, is not in dispute. All that has been confirmed today is that the officers were not in the least bit subtle about doing it. What today's developments shed no light on, is the truth or otherwise of Mr Mitchell and PC Rowland's respective accounts of the incident. Everything that has thus far been revealed is in principle consistent with PC Rowland's account. As I have said before, it is the defamation proceedings that will make or break Mitchell's political future.

That said, the Commissioner's handling of the media appears to have been highly suspect.

anotherDave said:

corporeal said:

anotherDave said:

corporeal said:

Socrates said:

edmundintokyo said:

The Austrian ski-instructor currently _does_ have a say in setting British taxes, and most British people would agree if they thought about it, as do the three main British parties. (You don't want small EU countries setting crazy-low VAT rates and screwing the British taxpayer, so the EU harmonizes them, and the Austrian ski-instructor has as much input into the rates they allow as anyone else.)

So you're no longer basing your views on what British people actually think but what you're just sure they would think, if they thought about it, because if they did that, they would adopt your views?

Surely someone as bright as yourself can see the barminess of this logic?

Iirc the current polling shows a lead for staying in the European Union.

So the best information we have say that British people would vote for Austrian ski instructors to have a say over some of their taxes and laws.

That depends on the pollster.

http://news.opinium.co.uk/opinium-blog/eu-neutrals-err-side-leaving

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_referendum_on_United_Kingdom_membership_of_the_European_Union#2014_2

Seems to show a definite recent movement towards staying in.

One of the detailed results of the Welsh political barometer (I've got a thread coming on it) is as UKIP's poll ratings have risen there's been a corresponding rise in support for staying in the EU.

Mr Hannan wrote a piece on that. His line was that UKIP was using the wrong argument.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100270107/if-it-comes-down-to-immigration-versus-investment-eurosceptics-will-lose/

I think the 'polling says stay' line may just be a YouGov thing. Opinium, Survation, and TNS all show a majority to 'leave', but YouGov publishes more polls.

Thing is, Opinium hasn't published a poll in a year or so.

Of recent pollster, Ipsos Mori and YouGov both show majorities to stay. Survation and TNS lean leaving (Ashcroft has a dead heat).

I'd trust Ipsos and YouGov over Survation and TNS tbh. Especially with a good number of YouGov polls.

Matthew Goodwin @GoodwinMJ

"The smears against Nigel Farage & UKIP have reached spectacular depths" http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/douglas-murray

corporeal said:

anotherDave said:

corporeal said:

anotherDave said:

corporeal said:

Socrates said:

edmundintokyo said:

The Austrian ski-instructor currently _does_ have a say in setting British taxes, and most British people would agree if they thought about it, as do the three main British parties. (You don't want small EU countries setting crazy-low VAT rates and screwing the British taxpayer, so the EU harmonizes them, and the Austrian ski-instructor has as much input into the rates they allow as anyone else.)

So you're no longer basing your views on what British people actually think but what you're just sure they would think, if they thought about it, because if they did that, they would adopt your views?

Surely someone as bright as yourself can see the barminess of this logic?

Iirc the current polling shows a lead for staying in the European Union.

So the best information we have say that British people would vote for Austrian ski instructors to have a say over some of their taxes and laws.

That depends on the pollster.

http://news.opinium.co.uk/opinium-blog/eu-neutrals-err-side-leaving

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_referendum_on_United_Kingdom_membership_of_the_European_Union#2014_2

Seems to show a definite recent movement towards staying in.

One of the detailed results of the Welsh political barometer (I've got a thread coming on it) is as UKIP's poll ratings have risen there's been a corresponding rise in support for staying in the EU.

Mr Hannan wrote a piece on that. His line was that UKIP was using the wrong argument.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100270107/if-it-comes-down-to-immigration-versus-investment-eurosceptics-will-lose/

I think the 'polling says stay' line may just be a YouGov thing. Opinium, Survation, and TNS all show a majority to 'leave', but YouGov publishes more polls.

Thing is, Opinium hasn't published a poll in a year or so.

Of recent pollster, Ipsos Mori and YouGov both show majorities to stay. Survation and TNS lean leaving (Ashcroft has a dead heat).

I'd trust Ipsos and YouGov over Survation and TNS tbh. Especially with a good number of YouGov polls.

Yougov are also the pollsters who have consistently shown some of the lowest support for UKIP. If it turns out they are the ones out of step with the results of the Euro elections would you consider that would also have implications for their findings regarding the In/Out question?

I do not mean this as a leading question. I do not read the polls well - probably because of my own bias towards BOO - so would be interested to get your take on this.

AveryLP said:

Farage apologises:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BoBRwZKIQAAvo2M.jpg:large

That's very mean/clever making his initials look like the National Front logo.

I don't think any of this will much reduce UKIP voting in the Euros though.

corporeal said:

anotherDave said:

corporeal said:

anotherDave said:

corporeal said:

Socrates said:

edmundintokyo said:

The Austrian ski-instructor currently _does_ have a say in setting British taxes, and most British people would agree if they thought about it, as do the three main British parties. (You don't want small EU countries setting crazy-low VAT rates and screwing the British taxpayer, so the EU harmonizes them, and the Austrian ski-instructor has as much input into the rates they allow as anyone else.)

So you're no longer basing your views on what British people actually think but what you're just sure they would think, if they thought about it, because if they did that, they would adopt your views?

Surely someone as bright as yourself can see the barminess of this logic?

Iirc the current polling shows a lead for staying in the European Union.

So the best information we have say that British people would vote for Austrian ski instructors to have a say over some of their taxes and laws.

That depends on the pollster.

http://news.opinium.co.uk/opinium-blog/eu-neutrals-err-side-leaving

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_referendum_on_United_Kingdom_membership_of_the_European_Union#2014_2

Seems to show a definite recent movement towards staying in.

One of the detailed results of the Welsh political barometer (I've got a thread coming on it) is as UKIP's poll ratings have risen there's been a corresponding rise in support for staying in the EU.

Mr Hannan wrote a piece on that. His line was that UKIP was using the wrong argument.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100270107/if-it-comes-down-to-immigration-versus-investment-eurosceptics-will-lose/

I think the 'polling says stay' line may just be a YouGov thing. Opinium, Survation, and TNS all show a majority to 'leave', but YouGov publishes more polls.

Thing is, Opinium hasn't published a poll in a year or so.

Of recent pollster, Ipsos Mori and YouGov both show majorities to stay. Survation and TNS lean leaving (Ashcroft has a dead heat).

I'd trust Ipsos and YouGov over Survation and TNS tbh. Especially with a good number of YouGov polls.

The most recent Opinium is April, they're just not on the Wikipedia page. The two recent 'leave' polls on wikipedia are ones I added this week. There may well be more out there.

We know there are house effects with pollsters UKIP values. It's logical that could also spill over into leave/stay EU polling.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/7744

England fall just short (9 runs, 3 wickets in hand) in the T20, another impressive Malinga performance.

Speedy said:

C4 says LD are on course to lose up to 400 council seats with UKIP to get around 100, what about Labour?

Looks like the LDs have had a rough campaign then. They were being predicted 340 losses at the end of April.

http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/04/29/the-2014-rallings-and-thrasher-local-elections-forecasts/

UKIP must be on for >100 surely? They were predicted 50 in London alone.

http://www.londoncommunications.co.uk/2014/05/lca-predicts-2014-local-elections/

I think that Catholic Church is quite pro EU. Most EU countries are majority Catholic, with the main minority religions being the Protestant North and the Orthodox Balkans, though increasingly all countries are secular.

The freedom of movement in the EU has increased the Catholic population of the UK by nearly a million, and made Catholic Churches and Schools burst at the seams.

I am not suggesting that the EU is a papist plot, but the EU and the Catholic Church do have a lot of common interests.

Life_ina_market_town said:

@Ninoinoz
How do you reconcile your slavish obedience to popish hierarchy with your support for UKIP? Papist bishops have been urging their flocks not to vote for the party. Do you have a response to this latest act of priestcraft?

Easterross said:

Evening all and I see some of our number are a bit tetchy tonight. Must be the approaching D Day on Thursday when some realise they have been done by the bookies and their own decision to bet with their hearts rather than their heads.

Lovely to see Ed the Bland one make such an arse of himself. Reckon the Labour group leader will be awarded a Life Peerage in Dave's dissolution honours list for that Ed cock-up. Clearly it will be the front page headline in the local regional newspaper tomorrow. Should do Labour's chances in Swindon a power of good!

I have to say I was rather bemused at the sight of a black UKIP member/supporter remonstrating with the young black chap from the band which withdrew from the UKIP event today. Did the band seriously expect us to believe it hadn't enquired for whom it had been booked to play?

I am on UKIP at 10/11 and the Tories at 25/1 so cant complain too much.

Best result is the Tories despite laying to lose a monkey at 15/2

Grandiose said:

England fall just short (9 runs, 3 wickets in hand) in the T20, another impressive Malinga performance.

That makes it sound like it was close but it wasn't. England never gave themselves a chance.

Morris_Dancer said:

Page not found, Mr. Johnno.

For you mr dancer ;-)

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/douglas-murray/2014/05/the-smears-against-nigel-farage-and-ukip-have-reached-spectacular-depths/

Tykejohnno said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Page not found, Mr. Johnno.

For you mr dancer ;-)

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/douglas-murray/2014/05/the-smears-against-nigel-farage-and-ukip-have-reached-spectacular-depths/

Love this bit -

Inevitably the lowest attacks have been saved until the week of the election. For months now the neat drip-feeding of anti-UKIP stories from Conservative Campaign Headquarters direct to the UK press has done everything possible to depict UKIP as a racist, xenophobic, bigoted party

Richard_Tyndall said:

corporeal said:

anotherDave said:

corporeal said:

anotherDave said:

corporeal said:

Socrates said:

edmundintokyo said:

Surely someone as bright as yourself can see the barminess of this logic?

Seems to show a definite recent movement towards staying in.

One of the detailed results of the Welsh political barometer (I've got a thread coming on it) is as UKIP's poll ratings have risen there's been a corresponding rise in support for staying in the EU.

Mr Hannan wrote a piece on that. His line was that UKIP was using the wrong argument.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100270107/if-it-comes-down-to-immigration-versus-investment-eurosceptics-will-lose/

I think the 'polling says stay' line may just be a YouGov thing. Opinium, Survation, and TNS all show a majority to 'leave', but YouGov publishes more polls.

Thing is, Opinium hasn't published a poll in a year or so.

Of recent pollster, Ipsos Mori and YouGov both show majorities to stay. Survation and TNS lean leaving (Ashcroft has a dead heat).

I'd trust Ipsos and YouGov over Survation and TNS tbh. Especially with a good number of YouGov polls.

Yougov are also the pollsters who have consistently shown some of the lowest support for UKIP. If it turns out they are the ones out of step with the results of the Euro elections would you consider that would also have implications for their findings regarding the In/Out question?

I do not mean this as a leading question. I do not read the polls well - probably because of my own bias towards BOO - so would be interested to get your take on this.

It depends really. The really difficult part of Euro elections is working out who will turn out (especially with some areas have locals and others don't).

If YouGov are out of step based on their turnout filter then I'd still be confident in them since I'd reckon on an EU referendum (assuming it's combined with another election) would have a higher turnout rate than an average EU election and that'd make the turnout measurements easier.

If it wasn't just their turnout filter that was off then I would be concerned and lean towards other pollsters.

EDITED TO ADD

YouGov have the lowest UKIP scores because they rate lower motivation voters the highest (others either exclude them altogether or downweight them more).

I think this is a problem for lower turnout elections, but for higher ones it would be less of an issue.

corporeal said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

corporeal said:

anotherDave said:

corporeal said:

anotherDave said:

corporeal said:

Socrates said:

edmundintokyo said:

Surely someone as bright as yourself can see the barminess of this logic?

Seems to show a definite recent movement towards staying in.

One of the detailed results of the Welsh political barometer (I've got a thread coming on it) is as UKIP's poll ratings have risen there's been a corresponding rise in support for staying in the EU.

Mr Hannan wrote a piece on that. His line was that UKIP was using the wrong argument.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100270107/if-it-comes-down-to-immigration-versus-investment-eurosceptics-will-lose/

I think the 'polling says stay' line may just be a YouGov thing. Opinium, Survation, and TNS all show a majority to 'leave', but YouGov publishes more polls.

Thing is, Opinium hasn't published a poll in a year or so.

Of recent pollster, Ipsos Mori and YouGov both show majorities to stay. Survation and TNS lean leaving (Ashcroft has a dead heat).

I'd trust Ipsos and YouGov over Survation and TNS tbh. Especially with a good number of YouGov polls.

Yougov are also the pollsters who have consistently shown some of the lowest support for UKIP. If it turns out they are the ones out of step with the results of the Euro elections would you consider that would also have implications for their findings regarding the In/Out question?

I do not mean this as a leading question. I do not read the polls well - probably because of my own bias towards BOO - so would be interested to get your take on this.

It depends really. The really difficult part of Euro elections is working out who will turn out (especially with some areas have locals and others don't).

If YouGov are out of step based on their turnout filter then I'd still be confident in them since I'd reckon on an EU referendum (assuming it's combined with another election) would have a higher turnout rate than an average EU election and that'd make the turnout measurements easier.

If it wasn't just their turnout filter that was off then I would be concerned and lean towards other pollsters.

Ta. As I say I am completely useless at reading the polls and public opinion which is why I very rarely bet on them. The up side is that I am always surprised by the results :-)

Richard_Tyndall said:

Ta. As I say I am completely useless at reading the polls and public opinion which is why I very rarely bet on them. The up side is that I am always surprised by the results :-)

I edited to add a small addendum.

YouGov have the lowest UKIP scores because they rate lower motivation voters the highest (others either exclude them altogether or downweight them more).

I think this is a problem for lower turnout elections, but for higher ones it would be less of an issue.

ToryJim said:

Blueberry said:

ToryJim said:

Evening all. Just back from a canvassing session. Bit of ticket splitting being picked up but I'm still surprised by the apparent strength of the Tory vote in my area. I'm certainly hoping it leads to good results on Thursday. I'm going to be pulling a 20-22 hour day on Thursday which is getting a less enticing prospect than a few years ago.

Thanks for the ground report. Always good to here voices from the front. Out of interest, do any of the split-ticket kippers mention 'media slurs', or is that just apparent to kipper-inclined anoraks on here?

Most of them think Euro elections are joke elections but local ones count. Therefore prepared to vote UKIP euro but revert to traditional party support in locals. I haven't found many UKIP voters supporting them for their own sake. Suggests their vote will crater next year. Met one person who was intending to vote UKIP but switched to Green because his wife is Kenyan and he couldn't vote for them even as a joke, but that's the only oblique reference I've picked up.

Last years local result was Lab 29%, Con 26%, UKIP 22%, LD 13%.

Given how increasingly shrill the Conservatives have become as this campaign has progressed, I'm expecting to see them a long way under last year's 26%.

Friday will be interesting!

Mr. Easterross, £500. Gangster slang, I think.