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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corporeal on The Passion of the Ukippers

As Mike noted at the time the latest round of 2014Euro polls came back with a pretty wide range of results, ranging from UKIP leading by 11 points with ComRes, down to ICM putting them in 3rd and 4 points off the top.

Read the full story here

corporeal

(My thanks to TSE for prettying up the text, and resisting the temptation to fill it with 80s pop references).

JBriskin

So we're betting on Lab now?? I thought we were betting on Ukip??? I get confused.

Ishmael_X

ICM CON 21%/CON 26% looks odd, is it explicable?

OblitusSumMe

Sometimes reported enthusiasm when talking to opinion pollsters doesn't translate to votes in the polling booth - just ask the Lib Dems about the 2010GE.

However, one factor in UKIP's favour is that their vote is concentrated amongst the old, where turnout is generally higher, whereas the missing 2010 Lib Dems are presumed to have mostly been those with more years remaining in which to regret their mistakes.

Anorak

FPT: A record of the carnishambles(TM) in pictures. Very funny.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/i-went-to-the-ukip-diversity-carnival-and-it-was-a-total-dis

TheScreamingEagles

At 10pm I'll be publishing the details of a new poll on the Euros and Westminster VI, the fieldwork, finished today.

It is fascinating because some of the questions asked (and the results)

Charles

FPT @edmundintokyo said:

A single political unit or the largest political unit people identify with as their primary source of identity? These are very different things. The first definition makes the demos of British people the EU. The second definition means Scotland isn't part of the same demos as the rest of the UK, and probably never has been. That's not "scope for disagreement", it's the overwhelming evidence of the polling.

Well clearly most people identify to a greater or lesser extent with different classifications.

Personally I am a Londoner, a country-boy, a Brit, and Englishman, a European, a Pilgrim and a Lizard. Some of those may not be true.

But I would say that the Demos is the largest single unit that people identify with as their primary political identification. As for Scotland: the debate is going on at the moment, or haven't you noticed? 40% are thereabouts seem to the think Scotland is the demos; 60% think it is the UK (albeit in a forced choice)

corporeal

Ishmael_X said:

ICM CON 21%/CON 26% looks odd, is it explicable?

They had a very low distribution of supporters reporting certain to vote (42%), but had the highest ratings (both overall responders and % of their own vote) on 7/8/9 (7 by a long way).

Casino_Royale

Excellent post. If turnout were forecast to be 45%+, Labour were actively campaigning and the clear 'anti-UKIP' choice by voters and the media, then I'd be tempted.

My hunch is that's not going to happen. Yes, I am slightly nervous about Labour (I always am when I stake money on my hunches) but of all my friends who hate UKIP I can't recall a single one who's declared they will vote in the Euros to stop them, yet alone pick Labour as the party best placed to stop then coming top.

On the other hand, UKIP supporters are uber-motivated and believe that this is their time. I think they're right - but it could be close.

corporeal

OblitusSumMe said:

Sometimes reported enthusiasm when talking to opinion pollsters doesn't translate to votes in the polling booth - just ask the Lib Dems about the 2010GE.

However, one factor in UKIP's favour is that their vote is concentrated amongst the old, where turnout is generally higher, whereas the missing 2010 Lib Dems are presumed to have mostly been those with more years remaining in which to regret their mistakes.

Mm, perhaps. The polls dipped back down with the Lib Dems before polling day. So pollsters (although divided) would argue that the reported enthusiasm was accurage, but just shifted a lot late on.

Likewise while the greater voting tendencies of the elderly is established, I don't know of any research about whether they outperform their reported enthusiasm compare to other groups.

MrJones

makes sense

peter_from_putney

FPT

antifrank - which bet are you referring to with Labour outside the top two, certainly not mine?

Casino - PtP is still very much around, in fact he was posting on here just a couple of days ago. But he seems to have lost his appetite for political betting. Oh for the good old days and those money machines, aka "caveman" , "Jan from Norway" , not forgetting URW (R.I.P.), etc.

Richard_Nabavi

Do ICM adjust by how people say they voted in the last GE or the last European election? If the former, I'd have thought it was actively counter-productive. If the latter, I'd be wary about false recollections. Either way, it could as you say be an adjustment which gives a result which doesn't adequately reflect UKIP's surge.

corporeal

Richard_Nabavi said:

Do ICM adjust by how people say they voted in the last GE or the last European election? If the former, I'd have thought it was actively counter-productive. If the latter, I'd be wary about false recollections. Either way, it could as you say be an adjustment which gives a result which doesn't adequately reflect UKIP's surge.

I believe it's the last election of the same type, but it's not fully clear (I tweeted at them but alas, no response).

edmundintokyo

Charles said:

FPT @edmundintokyo said:

A single political unit or the largest political unit people identify with as their primary source of identity? These are very different things. The first definition makes the demos of British people the EU. The second definition means Scotland isn't part of the same demos as the rest of the UK, and probably never has been. That's not "scope for disagreement", it's the overwhelming evidence of the polling.

Well clearly most people identify to a greater or lesser extent with different classifications.

Personally I am a Londoner, a country-boy, a Brit, and Englishman, a European, a Pilgrim and a Lizard. Some of those may not be true.

But I would say that the Demos is the largest single unit that people identify with as their primary political identification. As for Scotland: the debate is going on at the moment, or haven't you noticed? 40% are thereabouts seem to the think Scotland is the demos; 60% think it is the UK (albeit in a forced choice)

No, that's not what's being polled at 40% vs 60% in Scotland. What's being polled is which political unit they want to be part of, not which they primarily identify with. A lot of the arguments being put forward on either side are practical ones (how would Scotland do with its own currency, what would happen to its financial sector?) not identity ones.

Your definition of demos _has_ been polled, and it's very clear that if your definition is right, Scotland is a different demos. It's not even close:

Data released from the 2011 census showed 62% described themselves as "Scottish only", while 18% said they were "Scottish and British".

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-24282271

Quincel

JBriskin said:

So we're betting on Lab now?? I thought we were betting on Ukip??? I get confused.

If you bet on UKIP when we were betting on UKIP you can arb with LAB so long as CON don't win. But OGH thinks that CON will top LAB and KIP, so you might want to go to LADs and bet on a TRI.

Clear enough?

isam

Looks like while Nigel takes on allcomers, Dave is running away from challenging interviews..

Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 4m

I hope this isn't true http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100272101/david-cameron-vs-matthew-holehouse-cchq-is-frit/ …

Richard_Nabavi

isam said:

Looks like while Nigel takes on allcomers, Dave is running away from challenging interviews..

That's the Nigel Farage who (very sensibly) ran away from his own party's event today, right?

Scott_P

isam said:

Looks like while Nigel takes on allcomers

Er...

@TelePolitics: Nigel Farage fails to show at Ukip Croydon carnival as steel band refuses to play http://t.co/WXaxMkzy07

Richard_Nabavi

Quincel said:

JBriskin said:

So we're betting on Lab now?? I thought we were betting on Ukip??? I get confused.

If you bet on UKIP when we were betting on UKIP you can arb with LAB so long as CON don't win. But OGH thinks that CON will top LAB and KIP, so you might want to go to LADs and bet on a TRI.

Clear enough?

And if you get it just right you can arrange to lose money whatever the outcome.

TheScreamingEagles

Richard_Nabavi said:

Quincel said:

JBriskin said:

So we're betting on Lab now?? I thought we were betting on Ukip??? I get confused.

If you bet on UKIP when we were betting on UKIP you can arb with LAB so long as CON don't win. But OGH thinks that CON will top LAB and KIP, so you might want to go to LADs and bet on a TRI.

Clear enough?

And if you get it just right you can arrange to lose money whatever the outcome.

Think of me, I'll be at a concert, with no mobile signal, as the results come in, and I won't be able to trade out.

isam

Scott_P said:

isam said:

Looks like while Nigel takes on allcomers

Er...

@TelePolitics: Nigel Farage fails to show at Ukip Croydon carnival as steel band refuses to play http://t.co/WXaxMkzy07

hahahaha

The only reason I posted that was to see if youd bite!! Brilliantly predictable!

TheScreamingEagles

Grr! Grr! Grr!

John Rentoul ‏@JohnRentoul 5m

Interesting new kind of @Independent / ComRes poll coming up at 10.30 tonight. Stay tuned.

volcanopete

Police have launched an investigation following the discovery of election leaflets urging Muslims in Newham to vote Tory amid claims the local council is run by “gays” and “atheists”.

http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2014/05/20/met-police-investigate-muslim-pro-tory-anti-gay-election-leaflets/

Scott_P

Oooh

@MichaelLCrick: Policewoman in Downing Street on night of Andrew Mitchell Plebgate incident later boasted to friend: "I can topple the Tory Government."

isam

Richard_Nabavi said:

isam said:

Looks like while Nigel takes on allcomers, Dave is running away from challenging interviews..

That's the Nigel Farage who (very sensibly) ran away from his own party's event today, right?

Come on Richard, dont join in the my Dads braver than your Dad shjort sightedness

He dodged a gang of protestors calling him Nazi Scum! Hardly comparable to chucking out a Telegraph political journalist

Scott_P

@nicholaswatt: Breaking. One of Met Police Officers on duty on night of plebgate incident in Downing St texted: I can topple the Tory government

SimonStClare

isam said:

Looks like while Nigel takes on allcomers, Dave is running away from challenging interviews..

An uninvited reporter is turned away at the door, seems reasonable to me - And that would be 'allcomers' except those living in Croydon I suppose...! ; )

Richard_Nabavi

isam said:

Come on Richard, dont join in the my Dads braver than your Dad shjort sightedness

He dodged a gang of protestors calling him Nazi Scum! Hardly comparable to chucking out a Telegraph political journalist

All politicians and all political parties try to ensure their media stunts are covered in the way they want. Sometimes they succeed, and sometimes they fail miserably.

Charles

edmundintokyo said:

Charles said:

FPT @edmundintokyo said:

A single political unit or the largest political unit people identify with as their primary source of identity? These are very different things. The first definition makes the demos of British people the EU. The second definition means Scotland isn't part of the same demos as the rest of the UK, and probably never has been. That's not "scope for disagreement", it's the overwhelming evidence of the polling.

Well clearly most people identify to a greater or lesser extent with different classifications.

Personally I am a Londoner, a country-boy, a Brit, and Englishman, a European, a Pilgrim and a Lizard. Some of those may not be true.

But I would say that the Demos is the largest single unit that people identify with as their primary political identification. As for Scotland: the debate is going on at the moment, or haven't you noticed? 40% are thereabouts seem to the think Scotland is the demos; 60% think it is the UK (albeit in a forced choice)

No, that's not what's being polled at 40% vs 60% in Scotland. What's being polled is which political unit they want to be part of, not which they primarily identify with. A lot of the arguments being put forward on either side are practical ones (how would Scotland do with its own currency, what would happen to its financial sector?) not identity ones.

Your definition of demos _has_ been polled, and it's very clear that if your definition is right, Scotland is a different demos. It's not even close:

Data released from the 2011 census showed 62% described themselves as "Scottish only", while 18% said they were "Scottish and British".

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-24282271

Then I think we are talking at cross-purposes.

I would say that identification (and the census data is just a theoretical question) only matters when it is tested.

In the independence debate the Scots are being asked whether they want to be part of "political unit A" or "political unit B" with all the pros and cons of either choice. That will give us a clear indication of what they regard as the primary demos

GIN1138

Mothers gone Kipper!

Richard_Nabavi

Scott_P said:

@nicholaswatt: Breaking. One of Met Police Officers on duty on night of plebgate incident in Downing St texted: I can topple the Tory government

texted ???

Not very bright, the plod.

isam

Richard_Nabavi said:

isam said:

Come on Richard, dont join in the my Dads braver than your Dad shjort sightedness

He dodged a gang of protestors calling him Nazi Scum! Hardly comparable to chucking out a Telegraph political journalist

All politicians and all political parties try to ensure their media stunts are covered in the way they want. Sometimes they succeed, and sometimes they fail miserably.

Hahaha unbelievable!

Scrapheap_as_was

Jon Pienaar appears to have really dropped a bollock in missing this today when he was with Ed all day....

http://blogs.channel4.com/gary-gibbon-on-politics/ed-miliband-authenticity/28247

GIN1138

Weather for Thursday is looking dodgy with a lot of rain about - Won't be much of an incentive for lefties to turn off Jeremy Kyle and go and vote...

Sean_F

Casino_Royale said:

Excellent post. If turnout were forecast to be 45%+, Labour were actively campaigning and the clear 'anti-UKIP' choice by voters and the media, then I'd be tempted.

My hunch is that's not going to happen. Yes, I am slightly nervous about Labour (I always am when I stake money on my hunches) but of all my friends who hate UKIP I can't recall a single one who's declared they will vote in the Euros to stop them, yet alone pick Labour as the party best placed to stop then coming top.

On the other hand, UKIP supporters are uber-motivated and believe that this is their time. I think they're right - but it could be close.

Amongst my circle of acquaintances, I've noticed several friendships put under strain, over whether people are pro or anti UKIP. I've never experienced anything like that in an election campaign before. Have you experienced this?

TheScreamingEagles

Christ on a bike

http://blogs.channel4.com/michael-crick-on-politics/i-topple-tory-government-boasted-plebgate-pc/4121

isam

To be fair, maybe he should have turned up... the protestors weren't even Romanian!!

Rubber Romanian the new Plastic Paddy??

You couldnt make it up

http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/05/20/VIDEO-Romanian-Protesters-at-UKIP-Carnival-Admit-No-Links-to-Romania-at-All

Stuart_Dickson

SNP continues to tighten for the Euros as Hills slash their price from 1/4 to 1/7.

New best prices - Euros - Scotland - Most Votes

SNP 1/5 (Ladbrokes)
Lab 4/1 (BetVictor, William Hill)
UKIP 100/1
Con 100/1
LD 200/1

isam

Ian Fraser ‏@Ian_Fraser 2m

Astonishing report on Bucharest's drug-addicted sewer dwellers by @paraicobrien on #c4news http://www.channel4.com/news/romania-tunnels-bucharest-orphans-photo …

MrJones

SeanT said:

I wonder if the all-out smearblitz against UKIP is gonna misfire. It's just too much, too obviously concerted and desperate: an attempted late term partial abortion of a party about to enter the world, and just about as gruesome.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partial-Birth_Abortion_Ban_Act

It may just create shy kippers. I'd be wary of all polls now.

I predicted a narrow Labour win (27), followed by UKIP (25) then Tories (23).

I might perhaps reverse those figures and put UKIP just ahead of Labour, following this brutal assault. Voters dislike being bullied so obviously by the Establishment.

I think it may have holed the Tories under the waterline like Cameron did with Lisbon. Not obviously and only a small hole at first but ultimately fatal.

edmundintokyo

Charles said:

Then I think we are talking at cross-purposes.

I would say that identification (and the census data is just a theoretical question) only matters when it is tested.

I don't think we are at cross purposes. You provided a definition, and it didn't match the thing you were hoping it would match.

Charles said:

In the independence debate the Scots are being asked whether they want to be part of "political unit A" or "political unit B" with all the pros and cons of either choice. That will give us a clear indication of what they regard as the primary demos

So if the UK has a referendum on EU membership and votes to stay in, will that prove that the EU is the primary demos?

Stuart_Dickson

Best prices - Euros - Scotland

Conservatives to win a seat 4/11 (BetVictor)
Conservatives to win 0 seats 3/1 (Ladbrokes)

UKIP to win a seat 2/1 (BetVictor)
UKIP to win 0 seats 2/5 (Ladbrokes)

Lib Dems to win a seat 5/1 (Ladbrokes)
Lib Dems to win 0 seats 1/7 (BetVictor)

SimonStClare

TheScreamingEagles said:

Christ on a bike

http://blogs.channel4.com/michael-crick-on-politics/i-topple-tory-government-boasted-plebgate-pc/4121

To give Michael Crick his due, he's been like a terrier with a rat over this. Bravo to him.

Richard_Nabavi

SeanT said:

It may just create shy kippers. I'd be wary of all polls now..

Alternatively, it could have the effect of making people tell pollsters, out of cussedness, that they'll vote UKIP when they don't actually any serious intention of doing so. Still a reason to be wary of polls, but in the other direction. Who knows?

Stuart_Dickson

edmundintokyo said:

Charles said:

In the independence debate the Scots are being asked whether they want to be part of "political unit A" or "political unit B" with all the pros and cons of either choice. That will give us a clear indication of what they regard as the primary demos

So if the UK has a referendum on EU membership and votes to stay in, will that prove that the EU is the primary demos?

Don't confuse the poor dear.

Richard_Nabavi

I think Plebgate - or rather, the handling of it - might in the end topple Sir Bernard.

JBriskin

Quincel said:

JBriskin said:

So we're betting on Lab now?? I thought we were betting on Ukip??? I get confused.

If you bet on UKIP when we were betting on UKIP you can arb with LAB so long as CON don't win. But OGH thinks that CON will top LAB and KIP, so you might want to go to LADs and bet on a TRI.

Clear enough?

Yes, thanks Quincel. I'll be betting on the TRI if I do.

TheScreamingEagles

Richard_Nabavi said:

I think Plebgate - or rather, the handling of it - might in the end topple Sir Bernard.

That briefing to the press may be the thing that comes back to haunt him.

NickPalmer

Casino_Royale said:

Excellent post. If turnout were forecast to be 45%+, Labour were actively campaigning and the clear 'anti-UKIP' choice by voters and the media, then I'd be tempted.

My hunch is that's not going to happen. Yes, I am slightly nervous about Labour (I always am when I stake money on my hunches) but of all my friends who hate UKIP I can't recall a single one who's declared they will vote in the Euros to stop them, yet alone pick Labour as the party best placed to stop then coming top.

On the other hand, UKIP supporters are uber-motivated and believe that this is their time. I think they're right - but it could be close.

I'm encountering some "I'll vote Labour to beat UKIP" voters, but not a lot - most people aren't really seeing it as an exciting horse-race, more a chance to express an opinion. But Corporeal makes an important point in the comments too - the Cleggasm faded by polling day, and that may reflect a tendency for sudden bursts of popularity to be inherently fragile.

SeanT's assault on EiT is a bit weird, like most of his ad hom stuff. Are we all supposed to adopt the attitudes of wherever we happen to be at the time? Does Sean become a fervent monarchist with a bit of sympathy for military intervention when he's in Thailand? (The answer is probably yeah...)

edmundintokyo

SeanT said:

[I think edmundintokyo makes an interesting point but he] tells us the concept of demos is inherently flawed while living in a country that has the most defined demos on the planet.

If you were trying to make a concept to apply Japan I could see the kind of thing you were trying to getting at, but the problem people trying to justify their use of it in a pro-UK, anti-EU context are struggling with is how to muddy the definition far enough that the same thing can take in Scotland and England present and past, without taking in the EU present as well.

Charles

edmundintokyo said:

Charles said:

Then I think we are talking at cross-purposes.

I would say that identification (and the census data is just a theoretical question) only matters when it is tested.

I don't think we are at cross purposes. You provided a definition, and it didn't match the thing you were hoping it would match.

Charles said:

In the independence debate the Scots are being asked whether they want to be part of "political unit A" or "political unit B" with all the pros and cons of either choice. That will give us a clear indication of what they regard as the primary demos

So if the UK has a referendum on EU membership and votes to stay in, will that prove that the EU is the primary demos?

No, because the EU is - at the moment - a union of independent states: it's a group of demi (?) acting in concert.

If there was a vote on (a) do you want to become part of a single federal EU vs (b) not then you would have a point.

As it is you don't.*

(*And the census data is measuring something else, not demos.)

Ishmael_X

Richard_Nabavi said:

Scott_P said:

@nicholaswatt: Breaking. One of Met Police Officers on duty on night of plebgate incident in Downing St texted: I can topple the Tory government

texted ???

Not very bright, the plod.

People are odd about texts. Huhne largely scuppered himself by rashly worded texts to his son, and Huhne is quite bright.

And there was a father/daughter incest pair that got convicted last year somewhere oop North. Quite an easy crime to disguise you would have thought, but these two texted each other pictures of their primary genitalia.

Stuart_Dickson

CON drifting at Shadsy's line betting.

Euros - Shadsy's line bets (5/6 above/below)

UKIP 28% (n/c)
Lab 26% (n/c)
Con 23% (-1 point)
Grn 8% (n/c)
LD 8% (n/c)
An Independence From Europe 1.5% (n/c)

isam

If enough people watch Channel 4 News, todays Documentary on Romania will probably see UKIP absolutely piss up on Thursday

Search for "Romania" on twitter..

Speedy

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

Excellent post. If turnout were forecast to be 45%+, Labour were actively campaigning and the clear 'anti-UKIP' choice by voters and the media, then I'd be tempted.

My hunch is that's not going to happen. Yes, I am slightly nervous about Labour (I always am when I stake money on my hunches) but of all my friends who hate UKIP I can't recall a single one who's declared they will vote in the Euros to stop them, yet alone pick Labour as the party best placed to stop then coming top.

On the other hand, UKIP supporters are uber-motivated and believe that this is their time. I think they're right - but it could be close.

Amongst my circle of acquaintances, I've noticed several friendships put under strain, over whether people are pro or anti UKIP. I've never experienced anything like that in an election campaign before. Have you experienced this?

Can you elucidate?

I think the amount of vitriol poured on UKIP by the media over months, has created a toxic atmosphere of political fanaticism in Britain that is mostly seen in the middle east. I'm surpised we haven't seen people killed in the streets because they support UKIP, but deadly clashes are always one step away when fanatics take over.

edmundintokyo

Charles said:

edmundintokyo said:

Charles said:

Then I think we are talking at cross-purposes.

I would say that identification (and the census data is just a theoretical question) only matters when it is tested.

I don't think we are at cross purposes. You provided a definition, and it didn't match the thing you were hoping it would match.

Charles said:

In the independence debate the Scots are being asked whether they want to be part of "political unit A" or "political unit B" with all the pros and cons of either choice. That will give us a clear indication of what they regard as the primary demos

So if the UK has a referendum on EU membership and votes to stay in, will that prove that the EU is the primary demos?

No, because the EU is - at the moment - a union of independent states: it's a group of demi (?) acting in concert.

If there was a vote on (a) do you want to become part of a single federal EU vs (b) not then you would have a point.

As it is you don't.*

(*And the census data is measuring something else, not demos.)

Do you want to start again with a new definition, because you've completely given up on your original one. The political unit now can't be a union of independent states, and the way you expect voters to choose their fundamental primary political affiliation now involves speculating about who would get submarine building contracts.

Richard_Nabavi

edmundintokyo said:

If you were trying to make a concept to apply Japan I could see the kind of thing you were trying to getting at, but the problem people trying to justify their use of it in a pro-UK, anti-EU context are struggling with is how to muddy the definition far enough that the same thing can take in Scotland and England present and past, without taking in the EU present as well.

The way I see it is that it is a concept related to the range of people whom we might think have a democratically valid interest in setting our taxes, passing laws etc. So, for example, a plumber in Watford might not have much in common with a farmer in Cumbria, but both would probably agree that the other should have a say in voting for the government which sets their income tax. They'd both agree that a taxi-driver in Rio de Janeiro shouldn't.

Until a few years ago, that acceptance of the validity of the other's say would have extended between the Scots and the English; perhaps now it no longer does - that is arguably what the referendum is really about.

Equally, I don't think many people in the UK would subscribe to the view that, say, an Austrian ski-instructor should have a say in selecting the government which sets our taxes.

There's your definition.

Sean_F

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

Excellent post. If turnout were forecast to be 45%+, Labour were actively campaigning and the clear 'anti-UKIP' choice by voters and the media, then I'd be tempted.

My hunch is that's not going to happen. Yes, I am slightly nervous about Labour (I always am when I stake money on my hunches) but of all my friends who hate UKIP I can't recall a single one who's declared they will vote in the Euros to stop them, yet alone pick Labour as the party best placed to stop then coming top.

On the other hand, UKIP supporters are uber-motivated and believe that this is their time. I think they're right - but it could be close.

Amongst my circle of acquaintances, I've noticed several friendships put under strain, over whether people are pro or anti UKIP. I've never experienced anything like that in an election campaign before. Have you experienced this?

Can you elucidate?

A very bitter exchange at a recent party between two close friends of mine, one of whom is a Conservative constituency Chairman, the other a Conservative councillor who's defected to UKIP; an increasingly vicious exchange on Facebook between one left-wing friend, and another who's joined UKIP. A series of snide comments directed at me by a former Conservative MP. Other snide remarks by friends against each other on social media.

JBriskin

Speedy, SeanT and SeanF - The indyref ain't helping.

Stuart_Dickson

LAB drifting in Newark. Mike Smithson appears to have called this market wrong: ever since he tipped LAB on Day 1 (when they were 3/1) they have only gone backwards.

New best prices - Newark by-election

Con 4/9 (SJ)
UKIP 4/1 (Bet365)
Lab 7/1 (Betfair)
LD 250/1 (various)

JBriskin

Well played SeanT. I now assume we have to hope that Sean doesn't leave the country.

Socrates

Richard_Nabavi said:

edmundintokyo said:

If you were trying to make a concept to apply Japan I could see the kind of thing you were trying to getting at, but the problem people trying to justify their use of it in a pro-UK, anti-EU context are struggling with is how to muddy the definition far enough that the same thing can take in Scotland and England present and past, without taking in the EU present as well.

The way I see it is that it is a concept related to the range of people whom we might think have a democratically valid interest in setting our taxes, passing laws etc. So, for example, a plumber in Watford might not have much in common with a farmer in Cumbria, but both would probably agree that the other should have a say in voting for the government which sets their income tax. They'd both agree that a taxi-driver in Rio de Janeiro shouldn't.

Until a few years ago, that acceptance of the validity of the other's say would have extended between the Scots and the English; perhaps now it no longer does - that is arguably what the referendum is really about.

Equally, I don't think many people in the UK would subscribe to the view that, say, an Austrian ski-instructor should have a say in selecting the government which sets our taxes.

There's your definition.

It's very rare I find myself nodding in agreement to one of your posts! Well said!

Stuart_Dickson

SeanT said:

edmundintokyo said:

SeanT said:

[I think edmundintokyo makes an interesting point but he] tells us the concept of demos is inherently flawed while living in a country that has the most defined demos on the planet.

If you were trying to make a concept to apply Japan I could see the kind of thing you were trying to getting at, but the problem people trying to justify their use of it in a pro-UK, anti-EU context are struggling with is how to muddy the definition far enough that the same thing can take in Scotland and England present and past, without taking in the EU present as well.

Island. It's a f*cking island nation. Like Japan. You pungent little vulva.

The Yookay is not a "nation". It is a state.

isam

Haha

The black man/steel band member that didnt want to support UKIP... was a white woman

The Romanians protesting... werent Romanian

Patience UKIP haters.. retweet in haste, repent at leisure

FattyBolger

Ok, decision finally made. Will vote UKIP in the Euros. Back to Con at the GE (probably).

The concerted and overwhelming effort to de-legitimise the genuine, if sometimes inarticulate, concerns over immigration and EU membership felt by millions by repeatedly and sneeringly associating this with racism is very disturbing. ScottP's efforts on this front have not been edifying from my Toryish perspective.

Anecdote. Came home with the missus yesterday and the AIFE leaflet was on the mat. I handed it to her, she looked at it and said "Why are you giving that to me, I'm not voting UKIP?"

Stuart_Dickson

isam said:

Haha

The black man/steel band member that didnt want to support UKIP... was a white woman

The Romanians protesting... werent Romanian

Patience UKIP haters.. retweet in haste, repent at leisure

- "retweet in haste, repent at leisure"

That is Scott P's motto.

Socrates

edmundintokyo said:

SeanT said:

[I think edmundintokyo makes an interesting point but he] tells us the concept of demos is inherently flawed while living in a country that has the most defined demos on the planet.

If you were trying to make a concept to apply Japan I could see the kind of thing you were trying to getting at, but the problem people trying to justify their use of it in a pro-UK, anti-EU context are struggling with is how to muddy the definition far enough that the same thing can take in Scotland and England present and past, without taking in the EU present as well.

Indeed. The whole goal of the EU has been to achieve a single demos, and the strategy to get there is to never directly ask the people, because they'd know they say no. This strategy has been particularly acute in the UK.

Stuart_Dickson

FattyBolger said:

Ok, decision finally made. Will vote UKIP in the Euros. Back to Con at the GE (probably).

The concerted and overwhelming effort to de-legitimise the genuine, if sometimes inarticulate, concerns over immigration and EU membership felt by millions by repeatedly and sneeringly associating this with racism is very disturbing. ScottP's efforts on this front have not been edifying from my Toryish perspective.

Anecdote. Came home with the missus yesterday and the AIFE leaflet was on the mat. I handed it to her, she looked at it and said "Why are you giving that to me, I'm not voting UKIP?"

Scott P is one of the biggest liabilities the Tories have ever fielded on this board. I just cannot fathom why he has not had his reigns pulled.

Socrates

isam said:

Ian Fraser ‏@Ian_Fraser 2m

Astonishing report on Bucharest's drug-addicted sewer dwellers by @paraicobrien on #c4news http://www.channel4.com/news/romania-tunnels-bucharest-orphans-photo …

They sound just like German kids.

Speedy

NickPalmer said:

Casino_Royale said:

Excellent post. If turnout were forecast to be 45%+, Labour were actively campaigning and the clear 'anti-UKIP' choice by voters and the media, then I'd be tempted.

My hunch is that's not going to happen. Yes, I am slightly nervous about Labour (I always am when I stake money on my hunches) but of all my friends who hate UKIP I can't recall a single one who's declared they will vote in the Euros to stop them, yet alone pick Labour as the party best placed to stop then coming top.

On the other hand, UKIP supporters are uber-motivated and believe that this is their time. I think they're right - but it could be close.

I'm encountering some "I'll vote Labour to beat UKIP" voters, but not a lot - most people aren't really seeing it as an exciting horse-race, more a chance to express an opinion. But Corporeal makes an important point in the comments too - the Cleggasm faded by polling day, and that may reflect a tendency for sudden bursts of popularity to be inherently fragile.

SeanT's assault on EiT is a bit weird, like most of his ad hom stuff. Are we all supposed to adopt the attitudes of wherever we happen to be at the time? Does Sean become a fervent monarchist with a bit of sympathy for military intervention when he's in Thailand? (The answer is probably yeah...)

Cleggasm faded on polling day because of the structure of LD supporters and the events that happened on polling day. LD supporters were mostly young and in employment, because the election is on a working day it limits turnout from those employed, also the shortage of ballots, the long lines that prevented many from voting, the bad weather, the flash crash and the greek meltdown during the day all combined in favour of the main parties.

This time though it's old pensioners that are super excited, not students.

MrJones

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

Excellent post. If turnout were forecast to be 45%+, Labour were actively campaigning and the clear 'anti-UKIP' choice by voters and the media, then I'd be tempted.

My hunch is that's not going to happen. Yes, I am slightly nervous about Labour (I always am when I stake money on my hunches) but of all my friends who hate UKIP I can't recall a single one who's declared they will vote in the Euros to stop them, yet alone pick Labour as the party best placed to stop then coming top.

On the other hand, UKIP supporters are uber-motivated and believe that this is their time. I think they're right - but it could be close.

Amongst my circle of acquaintances, I've noticed several friendships put under strain, over whether people are pro or anti UKIP. I've never experienced anything like that in an election campaign before. Have you experienced this?

Can you elucidate?

A very bitter exchange at a recent party between two close friends of mine, one of whom is a Conservative constituency Chairman, the other a Conservative councillor who's defected to UKIP; an increasingly vicious exchange on Facebook between one left-wing friend, and another who's joined UKIP. A series of snide comments directed at me by a former Conservative MP. Other snide remarks by friends against each other on social media.

slow balkanization

Stuart_Dickson

UKIP drifting at Betfair in the Euros Most Seats market, but still odds-on FAV. Currently 4/7.

Socrates

Richard_Nabavi said:

isam said:

Looks like while Nigel takes on allcomers, Dave is running away from challenging interviews..

That's the Nigel Farage who (very sensibly) ran away from his own party's event today, right?

Don't you think there's a big difference in not bothering to turn up to an event the rent-a-mob are already ruining and avoiding difficult interviews with professional (or unprofessional in the case of James O'Brien) journalists?

Ishmael_X

Richard_Nabavi said:

edmundintokyo said:

If you were trying to make a concept to apply Japan I could see the kind of thing you were trying to getting at, but the problem people trying to justify their use of it in a pro-UK, anti-EU context are struggling with is how to muddy the definition far enough that the same thing can take in Scotland and England present and past, without taking in the EU present as well.

The way I see it is that it is a concept related to the range of people whom we might think have a democratically valid interest in setting our taxes, passing laws etc. So, for example, a plumber in Watford might not have much in common with a farmer in Cumbria, but both would probably agree that the other should have a say in voting for the government which sets their income tax. They'd both agree that a taxi-driver in Rio de Janeiro shouldn't.

Until a few years ago, that acceptance of the validity of the other's say would have extended between the Scots and the English; perhaps now it no longer does - that is arguably what the referendum is really about.

Equally, I don't think many people in the UK would subscribe to the view that, say, an Austrian ski-instructor should have a say in selecting the government which sets our taxes.

There's your definition.

A very good definition is that a demos is everyone who is subject to a shared set of laws; you are allowed little local laws as well but in the main they should be the same for everyone (which is why common law is called common law - it's the law which is common to everyone). This just doesn't apply to Scotland/England; a glaring oddity presumably explained by Scots lawyers on the commission protecting their own interests. Which is why appeals to history and a "300 year union" strike me as a bit weak, because 300 years is pretty recent history and the union isn't really a union.

edmundintokyo

Richard_Nabavi said:

edmundintokyo said:

If you were trying to make a concept to apply Japan I could see the kind of thing you were trying to getting at, but the problem people trying to justify their use of it in a pro-UK, anti-EU context are struggling with is how to muddy the definition far enough that the same thing can take in Scotland and England present and past, without taking in the EU present as well.

The way I see it is that it is a concept related to the range of people whom we might think have a democratically valid interest in setting our taxes, passing laws etc. So, for example, a plumber in Watford might not have much in common with a farmer in Cumbria, but both would probably agree that the other should have a say in voting for the government which sets their income tax. They'd both agree that a taxi-driver in Rio de Janeiro shouldn't.

Until a few years ago, that acceptance of the validity of the other's say would have extended between the Scots and the English; perhaps now it no longer does - that is arguably what the referendum is really about.

Equally, I don't think many people in the UK would subscribe to the view that, say, an Austrian ski-instructor should have a say in selecting the government which sets our taxes.

There's your definition.

The Austrian ski-instructor currently _does_ have a say in setting British taxes, and most British people would agree if they thought about it, as do the three main British parties. (You don't want small EU countries setting crazy-low VAT rates and screwing the British taxpayer, so the EU harmonizes them, and the Austrian ski-instructor has as much input into the rates they allow as anyone else.)

Selecting the _government_ that does those things at a local level is a different thing, and most Scottish people (or English people for that matter) would _not_ agree that English people should have a role in selecting the Scottish government.

isam

Socrates said:

isam said:

Ian Fraser ‏@Ian_Fraser 2m

Astonishing report on Bucharest's drug-addicted sewer dwellers by @paraicobrien on #c4news http://www.channel4.com/news/romania-tunnels-bucharest-orphans-photo …

They sound just like German kids.

Are you seriously trying to tell me that there aren't drug addled, AIDs ridden, glue sniffers living in the sewers of every major European capital?

Racist

Alanbrooke

Stuart_Dickson said:

SeanT said:

edmundintokyo said:

SeanT said:

[I think edmundintokyo makes an interesting point but he] tells us the concept of demos is inherently flawed while living in a country that has the most defined demos on the planet.

If you were trying to make a concept to apply Japan I could see the kind of thing you were trying to getting at, but the problem people trying to justify their use of it in a pro-UK, anti-EU context are struggling with is how to muddy the definition far enough that the same thing can take in Scotland and England present and past, without taking in the EU present as well.

Island. It's a f*cking island nation. Like Japan. You pungent little vulva.

The Yookay is not a "nation". It is a state.

A bit like Scotland then. Though Scotland's not actually a state.

Speedy

Stuart_Dickson said:

SeanT said:

edmundintokyo said:

SeanT said:

[I think edmundintokyo makes an interesting point but he] tells us the concept of demos is inherently flawed while living in a country that has the most defined demos on the planet.

If you were trying to make a concept to apply Japan I could see the kind of thing you were trying to getting at, but the problem people trying to justify their use of it in a pro-UK, anti-EU context are struggling with is how to muddy the definition far enough that the same thing can take in Scotland and England present and past, without taking in the EU present as well.

Island. It's a f*cking island nation. Like Japan. You pungent little vulva.

The Yookay is not a "nation". It is a state.

Britain is a nation much more than the USA is on definition.

JBriskin

[Selecting the _government_ that does those things at a local level is a different thing, and most Scottish people (or English people for that matter) would _not_ agree that English people should have a role in selecting the Scottish government.]

If you were to look at the polls you would know this is wrong.

ROLL ON SEPT

Charles

edmundintokyo said:

Charles said:

edmundintokyo said:

Charles said:

Then I think we are talking at cross-purposes.

I would say that identification (and the census data is just a theoretical question) only matters when it is tested.

I don't think we are at cross purposes. You provided a definition, and it didn't match the thing you were hoping it would match.

Charles said:

In the independence debate the Scots are being asked whether they want to be part of "political unit A" or "political unit B" with all the pros and cons of either choice. That will give us a clear indication of what they regard as the primary demos

So if the UK has a referendum on EU membership and votes to stay in, will that prove that the EU is the primary demos?

No, because the EU is - at the moment - a union of independent states: it's a group of demi (?) acting in concert.

If there was a vote on (a) do you want to become part of a single federal EU vs (b) not then you would have a point.

As it is you don't.*

(*And the census data is measuring something else, not demos.)

Do you want to start again with a new definition, because you've completely given up on your original one. The political unit now can't be a union of independent states, and the way you expect voters to choose their fundamental primary political affiliation now involves speculating about who would get submarine building contracts.

No, I haven't.

Scots can identify as many things: Glaswegians, Scots, Brits, Europeans. The census is asking about cultural identification. The Demos is a political-cultural concept.

So for me:

Glasgow - a local affiliation but primarily cultural rather than political.

Scotland - in my view this is a cultural identification. But others would see it is a political identification. This is what is being tested in September.

The UK - opolitical and a cultural identification

Europe - most people identify as "Europeans" in the cultural sense rather than "we are all members of the EU". It may be that, over time, a EU demos will develop - and a vote to become part of a federation would be a good measure of that - but I don't believe that the political criteria for existance of a Demos is currently satisfied.

isam

As if by magic...

"A mass brawl erupted between rivalling groups of youths who clashed in an area where former Home Secretary David Blunkett warned of rioting due to the high influx of Roma immigrants.

One local said: ‘Members of the existing community are tired and quite frankly frightened at the swiftness of how the situation became enflamed.

‘Council and Government agencies need to be aware of the truth and how the decent residents of this troubled district need support and assurance that they are safe to walk the streets.’ "

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2634014/Mass-brawl-erupts-rival-groups-youths-area-former-Home-Secretary-David-Blunkett-warned-rioting-influx-Roma-immigrants.html#ixzz32HazYHbZ
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

Socrates

volcanopete said:

Police have launched an investigation following the discovery of election leaflets urging Muslims in Newham to vote Tory amid claims the local council is run by “gays” and “atheists”.

http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2014/05/20/met-police-investigate-muslim-pro-tory-anti-gay-election-leaflets/

I'm sure the media will be all over this, showing it as an example of Tory intolerance, and questioning Cameron about whether he and his party are bigots.

Stuart_Dickson

LAB tightening in Plymouth Sutton & Devonport (Con Maj = 1,149). New best prices:

Lab 2/7 (PP)
Con 4/1 (Lad)
UKIP 20/1 (Lad)
LD 40/1 (PP)

edmundintokyo

SeanT said:

Island

Not necessary or sufficient.

Socrates

edmundintokyo said:

Charles said:

FPT @edmundintokyo said:

A single political unit or the largest political unit people identify with as their primary source of identity? These are very different things. The first definition makes the demos of British people the EU. The second definition means Scotland isn't part of the same demos as the rest of the UK, and probably never has been. That's not "scope for disagreement", it's the overwhelming evidence of the polling.

Well clearly most people identify to a greater or lesser extent with different classifications.

Personally I am a Londoner, a country-boy, a Brit, and Englishman, a European, a Pilgrim and a Lizard. Some of those may not be true.

But I would say that the Demos is the largest single unit that people identify with as their primary political identification. As for Scotland: the debate is going on at the moment, or haven't you noticed? 40% are thereabouts seem to the think Scotland is the demos; 60% think it is the UK (albeit in a forced choice)

No, that's not what's being polled at 40% vs 60% in Scotland. What's being polled is which political unit they want to be part of, not which they primarily identify with. A lot of the arguments being put forward on either side are practical ones (how would Scotland do with its own currency, what would happen to its financial sector?) not identity ones.

Your definition of demos _has_ been polled, and it's very clear that if your definition is right, Scotland is a different demos. It's not even close:

Data released from the 2011 census showed 62% described themselves as "Scottish only", while 18% said they were "Scottish and British".

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-24282271

It's become very clear to me that the British nation is coming apart at the seams due to political neglect and mismanagement of the concept. If Scotland votes yes to stay in, I think we have one last chance to resurrect it, and if we fail then we should let them go their own way next time the issue comes up.

JBriskin

[Europe - most people identify as "Europeans" in the cultural sense rather than "we are all members of the EU".]

You don't Have to be in the EU to be European - But it helps.

Stuart_Dickson

Socrates said:

volcanopete said:

Police have launched an investigation following the discovery of election leaflets urging Muslims in Newham to vote Tory amid claims the local council is run by “gays” and “atheists”.

http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2014/05/20/met-police-investigate-muslim-pro-tory-anti-gay-election-leaflets/

I'm sure the media will be all over this, showing it as an example of Tory intolerance, and questioning Cameron about whether he and his party are bigots.

Ruth Davidson will be absolutely chuffed.

edmundintokyo

JBriskin said:

[Selecting the _government_ that does those things at a local level is a different thing, and most Scottish people (or English people for that matter) would _not_ agree that English people should have a role in selecting the Scottish government.]

If you were to look at the polls you would know this is wrong.

ROLL ON SEPT

They're not going to vote on the abolition of the Scottish government in September.

Richard_Nabavi

edmundintokyo said:

The Austrian ski-instructor currently _does_ have a say in setting British taxes, and most British people would agree if they thought about it, as do the three main British parties. (You don't want small EU countries setting crazy-low VAT rates and screwing the British taxpayer, so the EU harmonizes them, and the Austrian ski-instructor has as much input into the rates they allow as anyone else.).

Well, that is precisely the root of the disaffection: many people think that the partial degree to which our Austrian friend (or the bureaucrats who act on his behalf) currently sets our taxes and laws is already too much and is not democratically valid - that is exactly what the Eurosceptics mean when they say there is no 'demos'.

Stuart_Dickson

SeanT said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

SeanT said:

edmundintokyo said:

SeanT said:

[I think edmundintokyo makes an interesting point but he] tells us the concept of demos is inherently flawed while living in a country that has the most defined demos on the planet.

If you were trying to make a concept to apply Japan I could see the kind of thing you were trying to getting at, but the problem people trying to justify their use of it in a pro-UK, anti-EU context are struggling with is how to muddy the definition far enough that the same thing can take in Scotland and England present and past, without taking in the EU present as well.

Island. It's a f*cking island nation. Like Japan. You pungent little vulva.

The Yookay is not a "nation". It is a state.

It's a nation state, with regional loyalties. Genetically the Brits are extremely self similar, and unlike their European cousins. We share a language, and we are a protestant nation.

Genetic map of Europe:

http://scienceblogs.com/gnxp/wp-content/blogs.dir/461/files/2012/04/i-3685e1f2d3dc72728b99c963dc7e19cd-europevariation-752360.jpg

See that outlying bit? That's us. The Brits.

To be fair, it doesn't include you, but then again you live in SWEDEN, so you're about as Scottish as a Zulu in a kimono.

So, SeanT is an ethnic nationalist. Can anybody say that they are surprised?

Much prefer civic nationalism myself.

JBriskin

EiT -

Yeah, I was conflating your Vat point. But still.

JBriskin

Stuart Dickson-

It is common knowledge that Ruth Davidson is a Lesbian.

Stuart_Dickson

edmundintokyo said:

JBriskin said:

[Selecting the _government_ that does those things at a local level is a different thing, and most Scottish people (or English people for that matter) would _not_ agree that English people should have a role in selecting the Scottish government.]

If you were to look at the polls you would know this is wrong.

ROLL ON SEPT

They're not going to vote on the abolition of the Scottish government in September.

Shhh... don't tell Scott P!

A lot of the twittier posters on here seem to be under the misapprehension that devolution would just go away after a No vote.

Stuart_Dickson

JBriskin said:

Stuart Dickson-

It is common knowledge that Ruth Davidson is a Lesbian.

Naw kiddin!

Socrates

Anorak said:

FPT: A record of the carnishambles(TM) in pictures. Very funny.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/i-went-to-the-ukip-diversity-carnival-and-it-was-a-total-dis

If that's the best line that can be put down by UKIP's critics I'm not worried. It shows UKIP's multiracial members trying to have a political event, and a load of obnoxious louts (and then chavvy schoolkids) trying to disrupt everything.

MrJones

isam said:

As if by magic...

"A mass brawl erupted between rivalling groups of youths who clashed in an area where former Home Secretary David Blunkett warned of rioting due to the high influx of Roma immigrants.

One local said: ‘Members of the existing community are tired and quite frankly frightened at the swiftness of how the situation became enflamed.

‘Council and Government agencies need to be aware of the truth and how the decent residents of this troubled district need support and assurance that they are safe to walk the streets.’ "

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2634014/Mass-brawl-erupts-rival-groups-youths-area-former-Home-Secretary-David-Blunkett-warned-rioting-influx-Roma-immigrants.html#ixzz32HazYHbZ
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

lol at one of the comments

"it can't be that serious, the police have turned up"

JBriskin

[A lot of the twittier posters on here seem to be under the misapprehension that devolution would just go away after a No vote.]

It's not just not going away - it's going to be empowered.

That will make you happy.

Only it probably won't.

Please tell me if it will make you happy or not and your reasons why - Genuine question.

edmundintokyo

Richard_Nabavi said:

edmundintokyo said:

The Austrian ski-instructor currently _does_ have a say in setting British taxes, and most British people would agree if they thought about it, as do the three main British parties. (You don't want small EU countries setting crazy-low VAT rates and screwing the British taxpayer, so the EU harmonizes them, and the Austrian ski-instructor has as much input into the rates they allow as anyone else.).

Well, that is precisely the root of the disaffection: many people think that the partial degree to which our Austrian friend (or the bureaucrats who act on his behalf) currently sets our taxes and laws is already too much and is not democratically valid - that is exactly what the Eurosceptics mean when they say there is no 'demos'.

This is completely circular: "Why don't you think this is democratically valid? Because there's no demos. What decides whether there's a demos? Whether I think it's democratically valid."

volcanopete

Socrates said:

volcanopete said:

Police have launched an investigation following the discovery of election leaflets urging Muslims in Newham to vote Tory amid claims the local council is run by “gays” and “atheists”.

http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2014/05/20/met-police-investigate-muslim-pro-tory-anti-gay-election-leaflets/

I'm sure the media will be all over this, showing it as an example of Tory intolerance, and questioning Cameron about whether he and his party are bigots.

Indeed,especially The Sun,Mail and Telegraph.Bound to be front page.