Sun Politics @Sun_Politics · 60 secs YouGov/Sun poll for Euro elections - Labour and Ukip neck and neck going into the final day: CON 23%, LAB 27%, LD 10%, UKIP 27%, GRN 8
Sun Politics @Sun_Politics · 60 secs YouGov/Sun poll for GE2015 - Labour lead drops to two points: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 11%, UKIP 13%
With the locals being in the metropolitan areas rather than Shires, even if there had been no change at all, I would expect the Tory vote to be less than 26%.
If they can get 26% or near in these councils, then they would be looking like a majority government next year.
Evening all. Just back from a canvassing session. Bit of ticket splitting being picked up but I'm still surprised by the apparent strength of the Tory vote in my area. I'm certainly hoping it leads to good results on Thursday. I'm going to be pulling a 20-22 hour day on Thursday which is getting a less enticing prospect than a few years ago.
Thanks for the ground report. Always good to here voices from the front. Out of interest, do any of the split-ticket kippers mention 'media slurs', or is that just apparent to kipper-inclined anoraks on here?
Most of them think Euro elections are joke elections but local ones count. Therefore prepared to vote UKIP euro but revert to traditional party support in locals. I haven't found many UKIP voters supporting them for their own sake. Suggests their vote will crater next year. Met one person who was intending to vote UKIP but switched to Green because his wife is Kenyan and he couldn't vote for them even as a joke, but that's the only oblique reference I've picked up.
Last years local result was Lab 29%, Con 26%, UKIP 22%, LD 13%.
Given how increasingly shrill the Conservatives have become as this campaign has progressed, I'm expecting to see them a long way under last year's 26%.
Friday will be interesting!
Do not mix up actual % vote and Equivalent National % vote . Labours actual vote last year was lower than 29% and the Conservatives actual vote share higher than 26%
With the locals being in the metropolitan areas rather than Shires, even if there had been no change at all, I would expect the Tory vote to be less than 26%.
If they can get 26% or near in these councils, then they would be looking like a majority government next year.
Evening all. Just back from a canvassing session. Bit of ticket splitting being picked up but I'm still surprised by the apparent strength of the Tory vote in my area. I'm certainly hoping it leads to good results on Thursday. I'm going to be pulling a 20-22 hour day on Thursday which is getting a less enticing prospect than a few years ago.
Thanks for the ground report. Always good to here voices from the front. Out of interest, do any of the split-ticket kippers mention 'media slurs', or is that just apparent to kipper-inclined anoraks on here?
Most of them think Euro elections are joke elections but local ones count. Therefore prepared to vote UKIP euro but revert to traditional party support in locals. I haven't found many UKIP voters supporting them for their own sake. Suggests their vote will crater next year. Met one person who was intending to vote UKIP but switched to Green because his wife is Kenyan and he couldn't vote for them even as a joke, but that's the only oblique reference I've picked up.
Last years local result was Lab 29%, Con 26%, UKIP 22%, LD 13%.
Given how increasingly shrill the Conservatives have become as this campaign has progressed, I'm expecting to see them a long way under last year's 26%.
Friday will be interesting!
Do not mix up actual % vote and Equivalent National % vote . Labours actual vote last year was lower than 29% and the Conservatives actual vote share higher than 26%
Just discovered there's no UKIP candidate in my ward. Very disappointing.
Where I live, the result is certain before the voting.
As much as i'd love to submit to one of the smug inquisitions it is now customary to hold for anyone too stupid to understand that we already live in the best of all possible worlds and should keep voting for it, it is past my bed time.
Evening all. Just back from a canvassing session. Bit of ticket splitting being picked up but I'm still surprised by the apparent strength of the Tory vote in my area. I'm certainly hoping it leads to good results on Thursday. I'm going to be pulling a 20-22 hour day on Thursday which is getting a less enticing prospect than a few years ago.
Thanks for the ground report. Always good to here voices from the front. Out of interest, do any of the split-ticket kippers mention 'media slurs', or is that just apparent to kipper-inclined anoraks on here?
Most of them think Euro elections are joke elections but local ones count. Therefore prepared to vote UKIP euro but revert to traditional party support in locals. I haven't found many UKIP voters supporting them for their own sake. Suggests their vote will crater next year. Met one person who was intending to vote UKIP but switched to Green because his wife is Kenyan and he couldn't vote for them even as a joke, but that's the only oblique reference I've picked up.
Last years local result was Lab 29%, Con 26%, UKIP 22%, LD 13%.
Given how increasingly shrill the Conservatives have become as this campaign has progressed, I'm expecting to see them a long way under last year's 26%.
Friday will be interesting!
To be honest I've thought the Conservative campaign has been a touch low key.
While we've been spellbound by the gyrating Euro polls, it's worth noting that the Westminster polls haven't been doing anything much since UKIP took first Tory and then Labour votes away - they've all been consistent with a modest Labour lead of 2-3 (+/-3). Assuming UKIP do lead on Thursday on the back of differential turnout, the next question is whether former Tory and former Lab Kippers will slip back to their old parties to a similar extent - for the purpose of deciding the 2015 outcome, it doesn't matter that much if it's a lot or a little, only whether it's different. Who knows?
Richard T hasn't been drawn on Newark - does anyone else have any idea how that's going?
With the locals being in the metropolitan areas rather than Shires, even if there had been no change at all, I would expect the Tory vote to be less than 26%.
If they can get 26% or near in these councils, then they would be looking like a majority government next year.
Evening all. Just back from a canvassing session. Bit of ticket splitting being picked up but I'm still surprised by the apparent strength of the Tory vote in my area. I'm certainly hoping it leads to good results on Thursday. I'm going to be pulling a 20-22 hour day on Thursday which is getting a less enticing prospect than a few years ago.
Thanks for the ground report. Always good to here voices from the front. Out of interest, do any of the split-ticket kippers mention 'media slurs', or is that just apparent to kipper-inclined anoraks on here?
Most of them think Euro elections are joke elections but local ones count. Therefore prepared to vote UKIP euro but revert to traditional party support in locals. I haven't found many UKIP voters supporting them for their own sake. Suggests their vote will crater next year. Met one person who was intending to vote UKIP but switched to Green because his wife is Kenyan and he couldn't vote for them even as a joke, but that's the only oblique reference I've picked up.
Last years local result was Lab 29%, Con 26%, UKIP 22%, LD 13%.
Given how increasingly shrill the Conservatives have become as this campaign has progressed, I'm expecting to see them a long way under last year's 26%.
Friday will be interesting!
Do not mix up actual % vote and Equivalent National % vote . Labours actual vote last year was lower than 29% and the Conservatives actual vote share higher than 26%
No the projections are based on a sample number of wards designed to give a roughly truer national picture .
Comments
Sun Politics @Sun_Politics · 60 secs
YouGov/Sun poll for Euro elections - Labour and Ukip neck and neck going into the final day: CON 23%, LAB 27%, LD 10%, UKIP 27%, GRN 8
Sun Politics @Sun_Politics · 60 secs
YouGov/Sun poll for GE2015 - Labour lead drops to two points: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 11%, UKIP 13%
Nearly 38% of voters UNAWARE European elections take place on Thursday: @DailyMirror http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/nearly-38-voters-unaware-european-3578021#ixzz32I7aEIMS …
Final Survation Euro-poll: Ukip 32%, Labour 27%, Tories 23%, LibDems 9%, Greens 4%.
http://www.ukip.org/
Is this old news?
Andrew Neil @afneil 1m
Final Survation Euro-poll: Ukip 32%, Labour 27%, Tories 23%, LibDems 9%, Greens 4%.
As much as i'd love to submit to one of the smug inquisitions it is now customary to hold for anyone too stupid to understand that we already live in the best of all possible worlds and should keep voting for it, it is past my bed time.
Richard T hasn't been drawn on Newark - does anyone else have any idea how that's going?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_slang