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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corporeal on The Passion of the Ukippers

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  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Yeah and she's an MSP as well Stuart Dickson

    Scotland Has No Problem With Homophobia
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    JBriskin said:

    [Selecting the _government_ that does those things at a local level is a different thing, and most Scottish people (or English people for that matter) would _not_ agree that English people should have a role in selecting the Scottish government.]

    If you were to look at the polls you would know this is wrong.

    ROLL ON SEPT

    They're not going to vote on the abolition of the Scottish government in September.
    Shhh... don't tell Scott P!

    A lot of the twittier posters on here seem to be under the misapprehension that devolution would just go away after a No vote.
    I actually wonder what will it take for the scottish parliament to be abolished, last time it was scottish bankruptcy. If scotland needs a bailout by Britain will the price be the same?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    MrJones said:

    isam said:

    As if by magic...

    "A mass brawl erupted between rivalling groups of youths who clashed in an area where former Home Secretary David Blunkett warned of rioting due to the high influx of Roma immigrants.

    One local said: ‘Members of the existing community are tired and quite frankly frightened at the swiftness of how the situation became enflamed.

    ‘Council and Government agencies need to be aware of the truth and how the decent residents of this troubled district need support and assurance that they are safe to walk the streets.’ "

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2634014/Mass-brawl-erupts-rival-groups-youths-area-former-Home-Secretary-David-Blunkett-warned-rioting-influx-Roma-immigrants.html#ixzz32HazYHbZ
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

    lol at one of the comments

    "it can't be that serious, the police have turned up"
    From Vince Pinner! Maybe the Roma's and the Asians are Just Good Friends really
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    The Austrian ski-instructor currently _does_ have a say in setting British taxes, and most British people would agree if they thought about it, as do the three main British parties. (You don't want small EU countries setting crazy-low VAT rates and screwing the British taxpayer, so the EU harmonizes them, and the Austrian ski-instructor has as much input into the rates they allow as anyone else.)

    So you're no longer basing your views on what British people actually think but what you're just sure they would think, if they thought about it, because if they did that, they would adopt your views?

    Surely someone as bright as yourself can see the barminess of this logic?
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    edited May 2014
    Actually, we're just away to watch a DVD, SD, so don't expect a reply too soon, but I should be back c. poll time.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Scott_P said:

    @nicholaswatt: Breaking. One of Met Police Officers on duty on night of plebgate incident in Downing St texted: I can topple the Tory government

    texted ???

    Not very bright, the plod.
    I could tell you a very amusing story about very clever men who were caught out by the same thing. Unfortunately, it remains the subject of legal proceedings, so I can't.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    This is completely circular: "Why don't you think this is democratically valid? Because there's no demos. What decides whether there's a demos? Whether I think it's democratically valid."

    No, it's not circular, it is two ways of expressing the same concept.
  • PfP: is URW literally deceased or were you lamenting his disappearance from these parts?
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Ladbrokes - IndyRef - Turnout

    Over 85% 8/1
    80-85% 9/2
    75-80% 5/2
    70-75% 11/4
    65-70% 9/2
    60-65% 8/1
    Under 60% 16/1
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    isam said:

    Socrates said:

    isam said:

    Ian Fraser ‏@Ian_Fraser 2m

    Astonishing report on Bucharest's drug-addicted sewer dwellers by @paraicobrien on #c4news http://www.channel4.com/news/romania-tunnels-bucharest-orphans-photo

    They sound just like German kids.
    Are you seriously trying to tell me that there aren't drug addled, AIDs ridden, glue sniffers living in the sewers of every major European capital?

    Racist
    Not in the 'dam.The Dutch have progressive drug harm reduction programmes that really work.


  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    Speedy said:

    SeanT said:

    Sean_F said:

    Excellent post. If turnout were forecast to be 45%+, Labour were actively campaigning and the clear 'anti-UKIP' choice by voters and the media, then I'd be tempted.

    My hunch is that's not going to happen. Yes, I am slightly nervous about Labour (I always am when I stake money on my hunches) but of all my friends who hate UKIP I can't recall a single one who's declared they will vote in the Euros to stop them, yet alone pick Labour as the party best placed to stop then coming top.

    On the other hand, UKIP supporters are uber-motivated and believe that this is their time. I think they're right - but it could be close.

    Amongst my circle of acquaintances, I've noticed several friendships put under strain, over whether people are pro or anti UKIP. I've never experienced anything like that in an election campaign before. Have you experienced this?
    Can you elucidate?
    I think the amount of vitriol poured on UKIP by the media over months, has created a toxic atmosphere of political fanaticism in Britain that is mostly seen in the middle east. I'm surpised we haven't seen people killed in the streets because they support UKIP, but deadly clashes are always one step away when fanatics take over.
    It's weird. You get the feel of the months leading up to a civil war.

  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    JBriskin said:

    Yeah and she's an MSP as well Stuart Dickson

    Scotland Has No Problem With Homophobia

    Which is exactly why the homophobic Tory leaflets will not go down well with the Scottish Tories.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    PfP: is URW literally deceased or were you lamenting his disappearance from these parts?

    Literally, I'm afraid. One of the greats. He died in September of last year.

  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Speedy said:

    JBriskin said:

    [Selecting the _government_ that does those things at a local level is a different thing, and most Scottish people (or English people for that matter) would _not_ agree that English people should have a role in selecting the Scottish government.]

    If you were to look at the polls you would know this is wrong.

    ROLL ON SEPT

    They're not going to vote on the abolition of the Scottish government in September.
    Shhh... don't tell Scott P!

    A lot of the twittier posters on here seem to be under the misapprehension that devolution would just go away after a No vote.
    I actually wonder what will it take for the scottish parliament to be abolished, last time it was scottish bankruptcy. If scotland needs a bailout by Britain will the price be the same?
    I cannot see any circumstances whatsoever which would lead to the Scottish Parliament being adjourned for a second time. Support for abolition was running at well below 10% last time I saw any pollster ask that question.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    On topic, are Kippers really as vehement as they tell pollsters they are? I have my doubts.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326

    Scott_P said:

    @nicholaswatt: Breaking. One of Met Police Officers on duty on night of plebgate incident in Downing St texted: I can topple the Tory government

    texted ???

    Not very bright, the plod.
    And why has it taken so long for this to come out?

    Someone somewhere in the Tory party will be thinking that "revenge is a dish best eaten cold".

  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557

    PfP: is URW literally deceased or were you lamenting his disappearance from these parts?

    Literally, I'm afraid. One of the greats. He died in September of last year.

    Sorry to hear that. He was a terrific asset here at PB. And a pleasant chap too. I wish we could get some more great betting experts like URW to post on these threads again.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326
    antifrank said:

    Scott_P said:

    @nicholaswatt: Breaking. One of Met Police Officers on duty on night of plebgate incident in Downing St texted: I can topple the Tory government

    texted ???

    Not very bright, the plod.
    I could tell you a very amusing story about very clever men who were caught out by the same thing. Unfortunately, it remains the subject of legal proceedings, so I can't.
    Me too. Lots of otherwise seemingly intelligent people lose their minds when it comes to email, chat, text, twitter and the rest.

  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557

    The Austrian ski-instructor currently _does_ have a say in setting British taxes, and most British people would agree if they thought about it, as do the three main British parties. (You don't want small EU countries setting crazy-low VAT rates and screwing the British taxpayer, so the EU harmonizes them, and the Austrian ski-instructor has as much input into the rates they allow as anyone else.).

    Well, that is precisely the root of the disaffection: many people think that the partial degree to which our Austrian friend (or the bureaucrats who act on his behalf) currently sets our taxes and laws is already too much and is not democratically valid - that is exactly what the Eurosceptics mean when they say there is no 'demos'.
    This is completely circular: "Why don't you think this is democratically valid? Because there's no demos. What decides whether there's a demos? Whether I think it's democratically valid."
    The PB Tories always remind me of Harry Enfield's "Tory Boy" character: hopelessly out of their depth.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453


    Scott P is one of the biggest liabilities the Tories have ever fielded on this board. I just cannot fathom why he has not had his reigns pulled.

    Who knew I wielded such power?

    My creepy stalker emerges again.

    Could the answer to your question possibly be that I have not been fielded by anyone, and have no reigns?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,693
    Sean_F said:

    Excellent post. If turnout were forecast to be 45%+, Labour were actively campaigning and the clear 'anti-UKIP' choice by voters and the media, then I'd be tempted.

    My hunch is that's not going to happen. Yes, I am slightly nervous about Labour (I always am when I stake money on my hunches) but of all my friends who hate UKIP I can't recall a single one who's declared they will vote in the Euros to stop them, yet alone pick Labour as the party best placed to stop then coming top.

    On the other hand, UKIP supporters are uber-motivated and believe that this is their time. I think they're right - but it could be close.

    Amongst my circle of acquaintances, I've noticed several friendships put under strain, over whether people are pro or anti UKIP. I've never experienced anything like that in an election campaign before. Have you experienced this?
    Yes, absolutely. I posted something on facebook saying those attacking UKIP were missing the point. It stirred up a hornet's nest. Another friend also posted an anti-UKIP post (where students shouted f-off back to Toad Hall) and I posted a comment criticising it, and said it would backfire.

    He then said I wasn't UKIP's target audience. When I admitted I had met Farage, and was thinking of voting for him, he got a bit upset. He phoned me to complain about my comment and seemed quite emotional.

    To be honest, I'm now keeping my head down for these reasons. I don't know what that says about me.

  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    Scott_P said:

    Oooh

    @MichaelLCrick: Policewoman in Downing Street on night of Andrew Mitchell Plebgate incident later boasted to friend: "I can topple the Tory Government."

    Not sure Con supporters have fully thought this through.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453


    The PB Tories

    The original defitnion of PB Tory is "poster who won a bet with tim"

    So how does that work then?
  • No idea what constitutes a demos, but i'll be voting yes in the independence referendum despite self-identifying as english.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    JBriskin said:

    [A lot of the twittier posters on here seem to be under the misapprehension that devolution would just go away after a No vote.]

    It's not just not going away - it's going to be empowered.

    That will make you happy.

    Only it probably won't.

    Please tell me if it will make you happy or not and your reasons why - Genuine question.

    A lesson from history:

    https://dub124.mail.live.com/Handlers/ImageProxy.mvc?bicild=&canary=zhkkpdF0jUt86YdVMLE2RtacJr60uX9VrPUAnBAWKjE=0&url=http://content.delivra.com/etapcontent//YesScotland/1979%20and%202014.jpg
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    The Austrian ski-instructor currently _does_ have a say in setting British taxes, and most British people would agree if they thought about it, as do the three main British parties. (You don't want small EU countries setting crazy-low VAT rates and screwing the British taxpayer, so the EU harmonizes them, and the Austrian ski-instructor has as much input into the rates they allow as anyone else.).

    Well, that is precisely the root of the disaffection: many people think that the partial degree to which our Austrian friend (or the bureaucrats who act on his behalf) currently sets our taxes and laws is already too much and is not democratically valid - that is exactly what the Eurosceptics mean when they say there is no 'demos'.
    This is completely circular: "Why don't you think this is democratically valid? Because there's no demos. What decides whether there's a demos? Whether I think it's democratically valid."
    The PB Tories always remind me of Harry Enfield's "Tory Boy" character: hopelessly out of their depth.

    Some of them know that "reins" are not the same thing as "reigns", and that "internals" does not mean "sub-samples". If they are out of their depth, where does that put you?
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557

    No idea what constitutes a demos, but i'll be voting yes in the independence referendum despite self-identifying as english.

    If you are like some of my English pals then you will be voting Yes because you self-identify as English, not despite of it.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    It was a scheduling conflict....

    @johnestevens: Just asked Nigel Farage why he did Ukip carnival no-show, he said: 'They wanted me to go but I didn't have time to go'
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Ishmael_X said:

    The Austrian ski-instructor currently _does_ have a say in setting British taxes, and most British people would agree if they thought about it, as do the three main British parties. (You don't want small EU countries setting crazy-low VAT rates and screwing the British taxpayer, so the EU harmonizes them, and the Austrian ski-instructor has as much input into the rates they allow as anyone else.).

    Well, that is precisely the root of the disaffection: many people think that the partial degree to which our Austrian friend (or the bureaucrats who act on his behalf) currently sets our taxes and laws is already too much and is not democratically valid - that is exactly what the Eurosceptics mean when they say there is no 'demos'.
    This is completely circular: "Why don't you think this is democratically valid? Because there's no demos. What decides whether there's a demos? Whether I think it's democratically valid."
    The PB Tories always remind me of Harry Enfield's "Tory Boy" character: hopelessly out of their depth.

    Some of them know that "reins" are not the same thing as "reigns", and that "internals" does not mean "sub-samples". If they are out of their depth, where does that put you?
    Ho ho. Hit a sore spot there, didn't I.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2014
    This kipper certainty-to-vote claim reminds me of my elderly aunt who loses her spectacles and keys at hourly intervals.

    The loss is always followed with the authoritative statement: "I am certain I left them on the table beside my chair".

    The spectacles are almost always found on her head and the keys in her pocket.

    We should be very wary of taking pollsters' estimates of kipper turnout seriously.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Good evening, everyone.

    Shade grumpy on here.

    I do agree there is an odd air around UKIP and the unified attacks by the big three parties and much of the media against the party.

    I am sorry to hear about Mr. URW.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    MrJones said:

    Media-ocracy: fake democracy where a handful of unelected people in the media decide what opinions you're allowed to choose from with the number of options on the list gradually narrowing over time to one.

    Top post Mr jones.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Ishmael_X said:

    The Austrian ski-instructor currently _does_ have a say in setting British taxes, and most British people would agree if they thought about it, as do the three main British parties. (You don't want small EU countries setting crazy-low VAT rates and screwing the British taxpayer, so the EU harmonizes them, and the Austrian ski-instructor has as much input into the rates they allow as anyone else.).

    Well, that is precisely the root of the disaffection: many people think that the partial degree to which our Austrian friend (or the bureaucrats who act on his behalf) currently sets our taxes and laws is already too much and is not democratically valid - that is exactly what the Eurosceptics mean when they say there is no 'demos'.
    This is completely circular: "Why don't you think this is democratically valid? Because there's no demos. What decides whether there's a demos? Whether I think it's democratically valid."
    The PB Tories always remind me of Harry Enfield's "Tory Boy" character: hopelessly out of their depth.

    Some of them know that "reins" are not the same thing as "reigns", and that "internals" does not mean "sub-samples". If they are out of their depth, where does that put you?
    Ho ho. Hit a sore spot there, didn't I.
    No, I did.

    The internals thing was really embarrassing. Most people would have name-changed, so I suppose you get some credit for not doing so.

  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Socrates said:

    The Austrian ski-instructor currently _does_ have a say in setting British taxes, and most British people would agree if they thought about it, as do the three main British parties. (You don't want small EU countries setting crazy-low VAT rates and screwing the British taxpayer, so the EU harmonizes them, and the Austrian ski-instructor has as much input into the rates they allow as anyone else.)

    So you're no longer basing your views on what British people actually think but what you're just sure they would think, if they thought about it, because if they did that, they would adopt your views?

    Surely someone as bright as yourself can see the barminess of this logic?
    Iirc the current polling shows a lead for staying in the European Union.

    So the best information we have say that British people would vote for Austrian ski instructors to have a say over some of their taxes and laws.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Sean_F said:

    Speedy said:

    SeanT said:

    Sean_F said:

    Excellent post. If turnout were forecast to be 45%+, Labour were actively campaigning and the clear 'anti-UKIP' choice by voters and the media, then I'd be tempted.

    It's weird. You get the feel of the months leading up to a civil war.

    Sean, read "The Road to National Suicide" by Enoch Powell..

    Here it is.. He made the speech 38 years ago, and it could have been written about this election campaign...

    "Throughout the last twenty years, locally at first, then nationally, one
    political subject has been different from all the rest in the persistence with
    which it has endured and the profound and absorbing preoccupation
    which it has increasingly held for the public. This is all the more remarkable
    because of the sedulous determination with which this subject has been kept,
    as far as possible, out of parliamentary debate, and the use which has been
    made of every device—from legal penalty to trade union proscription—to
    prevent the open discussion and ventilation of it. No social or political penalty,
    no threat of private ostracism or public violence, has been spared against those
    who have nevertheless continued to describe what hundreds of thousands of
    their fellow citizens daily saw and experienced and to voice the fears for the
    future by which those fellow citizens were haunted. The efforts that were made
    during the 1930s to silence, ridicule, or denounce those who warned of the
    coming war with the fascist dictatorships and who called for the peril to be
    recognized and met before too late, provide but a pale and imperfect precedent.
    In all this suppression more than one powerful motive can be seen at
    work. On the one hand there is the primitive but widespread superstition that
    if danger is not mentioned, it will go away, or even that it is created by being
    identified and can therefore be destroyed again by being left in silence. Akin
    to this is the natural resentment of ordinary people, but especially of politicians,
    at being forced to face an appalling prospect with no readily procurable happy
    ending. The custom of killing messengers who bring bad news is not confined
    to the kings and tyrants of antiquity or of fiction. On the other hand there are
    at work the dark motives of those who desire the catastrophic outcome which
    they foresee. All round the world in various forms the same formula for
    rending societies apart is being prepared and applied, by ignorance or design,
    and there are those who are determined to see to it that Britain shall no longer
    be able to escape. I marvel sometimes that people should be so innocently blind
    to this nihilism."

    http://toqonline.com/archives/v3n3/TOQv3n3Powell.pdf

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. X, Mr. Dickson, let's not argue about who killed who, this is meant to be a happy occasion.
  • Scott_P said:


    The PB Tories

    The original defitnion of PB Tory is "poster who won a bet with tim"

    So how does that work then?
    ..... or more probably lost a bet with tim ....... no mean punter him.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    England are struggling to even make a game of this.
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    Just done a YouGov poll with these forced choice questions, including the option to vote for any of the top 4 parties.

    Looking ahead to next year’s general election, suppose you lived in a constituency where you thought the only parties with a realistic chance of winning locally were CONSERVATIVE or LABOUR, how would you vote?

    And suppose you lived in a constituency where you thought the only parties with a realistic chance of winning locally were CONSERVATIVE or the LIBERAL DEMOCRATS, how would you vote?

    And suppose you lived in a constituency where you thought the only parties with a realistic chance of winning locally were LABOUR or the LIBERAL DEMOCRATS, how would you vote?

    Hopefully they're public results.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    corporeal said:

    Socrates said:

    The Austrian ski-instructor currently _does_ have a say in setting British taxes, and most British people would agree if they thought about it, as do the three main British parties. (You don't want small EU countries setting crazy-low VAT rates and screwing the British taxpayer, so the EU harmonizes them, and the Austrian ski-instructor has as much input into the rates they allow as anyone else.)

    So you're no longer basing your views on what British people actually think but what you're just sure they would think, if they thought about it, because if they did that, they would adopt your views?

    Surely someone as bright as yourself can see the barminess of this logic?
    Iirc the current polling shows a lead for staying in the European Union.

    So the best information we have say that British people would vote for Austrian ski instructors to have a say over some of their taxes and laws.
    That depends on the pollster.

    http://news.opinium.co.uk/opinium-blog/eu-neutrals-err-side-leaving

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_referendum_on_United_Kingdom_membership_of_the_European_Union#2014_2
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    isam said:


    Sean, read "The Road to National Suicide" by Enoch Powell..

    Here it is.. He made the speech 38 years ago, and it could have been written about this election campaign...

    "Throughout the last twenty years, locally at first, then nationally, one
    political subject has been different from all the rest in the persistence with
    which it has endured and the profound and absorbing preoccupation
    which it has increasingly held for the public. This is all the more remarkable
    because of the sedulous determination with which this subject has been kept,
    as far as possible, out of parliamentary debate, and the use which has been
    made of every device—from legal penalty to trade union proscription—to
    prevent the open discussion and ventilation of it. No social or political penalty,
    no threat of private ostracism or public violence, has been spared against those
    who have nevertheless continued to describe what hundreds of thousands of
    their fellow citizens daily saw and experienced and to voice the fears for the
    future by which those fellow citizens were haunted. The efforts that were made
    during the 1930s to silence, ridicule, or denounce those who warned of the
    coming war with the fascist dictatorships and who called for the peril to be
    recognized and met before too late, provide but a pale and imperfect precedent.
    In all this suppression more than one powerful motive can be seen at
    work. On the one hand there is the primitive but widespread superstition that
    if danger is not mentioned, it will go away, or even that it is created by being
    identified and can therefore be destroyed again by being left in silence. Akin
    to this is the natural resentment of ordinary people, but especially of politicians,
    at being forced to face an appalling prospect with no readily procurable happy
    ending. The custom of killing messengers who bring bad news is not confined
    to the kings and tyrants of antiquity or of fiction. On the other hand there are
    at work the dark motives of those who desire the catastrophic outcome which
    they foresee. All round the world in various forms the same formula for
    rending societies apart is being prepared and applied, by ignorance or design,
    and there are those who are determined to see to it that Britain shall no longer
    be able to escape. I marvel sometimes that people should be so innocently blind
    to this nihilism."

    http://toqonline.com/archives/v3n3/TOQv3n3Powell.pdf

    That's the point, though. Powell thought it was the great an unquenchable issue of his own age, now you're suggesting it's the issue of our own. Few looking back would say that Powell was right: few opponents of immigration point towards the immigration of the 60s or 70s. Yet he was content to paint the picture he did of "the dark motives of those who desire the catastrophic outcome which they foresee" (!)
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Mr. X, Mr. Dickson, let's not argue about who killed who, this is meant to be a happy occasion.

    I will reign in my displeasure, and permit peace and harmony to rein over the site undisturbed.

    I am (as of quite recently) Dr. X by the way. Can't bring myself to use it in real life but Dr. X alludes pleasingly to one of my favourite films.

  • If you are like some of my English pals then you will be voting Yes because you self-identify as English, not despite of it.

    That's true to some extent (the WLQ needs a decent answer, and the calls for greater devolution in the event of a no vote would make the failure to answer it even more glaring). But I'd vote for independence for Argyll & Bute too. I'm pretty hellbent on bringing power close to home. Thus, I'll be voting UKIP on Thursday. It seems a more logically coherent aproach to independence than that of either UKIP or the SNP.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited May 2014

    Jon Pienaar appears to have really dropped a bollock in missing this today when he was with Ed all day....

    http://blogs.channel4.com/gary-gibbon-on-politics/ed-miliband-authenticity/28247

    This may be why..... a staring competition

    twitter.com/JPonpolitics/status/468685573834940417/photo/1
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Grandiose said:

    isam said:


    Sean, read "The Road to National Suicide" by Enoch Powell..

    Here it is.. He made the speech 38 years ago, and it could have been written about this election campaign..



    That's the point, though. Powell thought it was the great an unquenchable issue of his own age, now you're suggesting it's the issue of our own. Few looking back would say that Powell was right: few opponents of immigration point towards the immigration of the 60s or 70s. Yet he was content to paint the picture he did of "the dark motives of those who desire the catastrophic outcome which they foresee" (!)

    I could give many examples of how he was extremely accurate, but its an argument I have had too many times.

    Agree to disagree
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    corporeal said:

    Socrates said:

    The Austrian ski-instructor currently _does_ have a say in setting British taxes, and most British people would agree if they thought about it, as do the three main British parties. (You don't want small EU countries setting crazy-low VAT rates and screwing the British taxpayer, so the EU harmonizes them, and the Austrian ski-instructor has as much input into the rates they allow as anyone else.)

    So you're no longer basing your views on what British people actually think but what you're just sure they would think, if they thought about it, because if they did that, they would adopt your views?

    Surely someone as bright as yourself can see the barminess of this logic?
    Iirc the current polling shows a lead for staying in the European Union.

    So the best information we have say that British people would vote for Austrian ski instructors to have a say over some of their taxes and laws.
    That depends on the pollster.

    http://news.opinium.co.uk/opinium-blog/eu-neutrals-err-side-leaving

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_referendum_on_United_Kingdom_membership_of_the_European_Union#2014_2
    Seems to show a definite recent movement towards staying in.

    One of the detailed results of the Welsh political barometer (I've got a thread coming on it) is as UKIP's poll ratings have risen there's been a corresponding rise in support for staying in the EU.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Sean_F said:

    Excellent post. If turnout were forecast to be 45%+, Labour were actively campaigning and the clear 'anti-UKIP' choice by voters and the media, then I'd be tempted.

    My hunch is that's not going to happen. Yes, I am slightly nervous about Labour (I always am when I stake money on my hunches) but of all my friends who hate UKIP I can't recall a single one who's declared they will vote in the Euros to stop them, yet alone pick Labour as the party best placed to stop then coming top.

    On the other hand, UKIP supporters are uber-motivated and believe that this is their time. I think they're right - but it could be close.

    Amongst my circle of acquaintances, I've noticed several friendships put under strain, over whether people are pro or anti UKIP. I've never experienced anything like that in an election campaign before. Have you experienced this?
    Yes, absolutely. I posted something on facebook saying those attacking UKIP were missing the point. It stirred up a hornet's nest. Another friend also posted an anti-UKIP post (where students shouted f-off back to Toad Hall) and I posted a comment criticising it, and said it would backfire.

    He then said I wasn't UKIP's target audience. When I admitted I had met Farage, and was thinking of voting for him, he got a bit upset. He phoned me to complain about my comment and seemed quite emotional.

    To be honest, I'm now keeping my head down for these reasons. I don't know what that says about me.

    That's a tough one. Avoiding religion and politics is generally a sound idea to avoid ill feeling. Should you make an exception during elections and Easter?

    If you don't think the other person is capable of keeping their emotions in check, I'd avoid it.
  • NextNext Posts: 826
    Enjoyed reading about the UKIP carnageval today.

    Very much a "what could go wrong?" decision that one.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited May 2014
    corporeal said:

    corporeal said:

    Socrates said:

    The Austrian ski-instructor currently _does_ have a say in setting British taxes, and most British people would agree if they thought about it, as do the three main British parties. (You don't want small EU countries setting crazy-low VAT rates and screwing the British taxpayer, so the EU harmonizes them, and the Austrian ski-instructor has as much input into the rates they allow as anyone else.)

    So you're no longer basing your views on what British people actually think but what you're just sure they would think, if they thought about it, because if they did that, they would adopt your views?

    Surely someone as bright as yourself can see the barminess of this logic?
    Iirc the current polling shows a lead for staying in the European Union.

    So the best information we have say that British people would vote for Austrian ski instructors to have a say over some of their taxes and laws.
    That depends on the pollster.

    http://news.opinium.co.uk/opinium-blog/eu-neutrals-err-side-leaving

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_referendum_on_United_Kingdom_membership_of_the_European_Union#2014_2
    Seems to show a definite recent movement towards staying in.

    One of the detailed results of the Welsh political barometer (I've got a thread coming on it) is as UKIP's poll ratings have risen there's been a corresponding rise in support for staying in the EU.
    Mr Hannan wrote a piece on that. His line was that UKIP was using the wrong argument.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100270107/if-it-comes-down-to-immigration-versus-investment-eurosceptics-will-lose/

    I think the 'polling says stay' line may just be a YouGov thing. Opinium, Survation, and TNS all show a majority to 'leave', but YouGov publishes more polls.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    For a professional politician the Ed Miliband Jim Grant, leader of the Council interview today is just totally embarrassing. In almost any organisation whoever was responsible for his briefing on local issues would be sacked.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27483541

    Of course very few competent organisations would have an Ed Miliband leading them.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337
    Ishmael_X said:

    Mr. X, Mr. Dickson, let's not argue about who killed who, this is meant to be a happy occasion.

    I will reign in my displeasure, and permit peace and harmony to rein over the site undisturbed.

    I am (as of quite recently) Dr. X by the way. Can't bring myself to use it in real life but Dr. X alludes pleasingly to one of my favourite films.
    Congratulations. It is a sign of a great deal of hard work and thought brought to successful completion. And if you did it as a mature student or part-timer, doubly so. The next step is to publish?

    You might still want to use it in real life, all the same. The new improved moniker impresses bank managers, if nothing else (or at least it used to). And it is often advisable to be absolutely consistent in precisely how you call yourself, lest you end up with problems with automated databases and the like.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    isam said:

    Grandiose said:

    isam said:


    Sean, read "The Road to National Suicide" by Enoch Powell..

    Here it is.. He made the speech 38 years ago, and it could have been written about this election campaign..



    That's the point, though. Powell thought it was the great an unquenchable issue of his own age, now you're suggesting it's the issue of our own. Few looking back would say that Powell was right: few opponents of immigration point towards the immigration of the 60s or 70s. Yet he was content to paint the picture he did of "the dark motives of those who desire the catastrophic outcome which they foresee" (!)

    I could give many examples of how he was extremely accurate, but its an argument I have had too many times.

    Agree to disagree
    Is there no part of that you're prepared to depart from? Consider rhetorical hyperbole, and concentrate on the grain of truth?

    The Britain of 2014 is patently not a "catastrophic outcome" despite 37 years on "The Road to National Suicide". If Britain is now "unable to escape", I fail to see from what horrifying future is now inevitable.

    Nor do I see the "the New Commonwealth immigrant and immigrant-descended population in our cities unable to live and work in harmony with the rest of the population". UKIP draws more on fears of a more recent wave of immigration - I wonder how many would be prepared to defend Powell's claims.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Next said:

    Enjoyed reading about the UKIP carnageval today.

    Very much a "what could go wrong?" decision that one.

    And a 100% unforced error, effectively undermining what was a respectably strong case pre-carnaggedon that UKIP's woes were the result of a conspiracy against them.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,033
    Ishmael_X said:

    Mr. X, Mr. Dickson, let's not argue about who killed who, this is meant to be a happy occasion.

    I will reign in my displeasure, and permit peace and harmony to rein over the site undisturbed.

    I am (as of quite recently) Dr. X by the way. Can't bring myself to use it in real life but Dr. X alludes pleasingly to one of my favourite films.
    Congratulations! I haven't been tempted to change my name on my credit cards, but I did have a notation added to my passport when I got it renewed.
  • Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    edited May 2014
    Sean_F said:

    Speedy said:

    SeanT said:

    Sean_F said:

    Excellent post. If turnout were forecast to be 45%+, Labour were actively campaigning and the clear 'anti-UKIP' choice by voters and the media, then I'd be tempted.

    My hunch is that's not going to happen. Yes, I am slightly nervous about Labour (I always am when I stake money on my hunches) but of all my friends who hate UKIP I can't recall a single one who's declared they will vote in the Euros to stop them, yet alone pick Labour as the party best placed to stop then coming top.

    On the other hand, UKIP supporters are uber-motivated and believe that this is their time. I think they're right - but it could be close.

    Amongst my circle of acquaintances, I've noticed several friendships put under strain, over whether people are pro or anti UKIP. I've never experienced anything like that in an election campaign before. Have you experienced this?
    Can you elucidate?
    I think the amount of vitriol poured on UKIP by the media over months, has created a toxic atmosphere of political fanaticism in Britain that is mostly seen in the middle east. I'm surpised we haven't seen people killed in the streets because they support UKIP, but deadly clashes are always one step away when fanatics take over.
    It's weird. You get the feel of the months leading up to a civil war.


    It was much the same between 1979 and 1993, especially during things like the Miners strike, you had two completly different sets of ideology and people had arguments in pubs, fell out and occasionally came to blows over the subject of politics. I can remember as a child proudly telling my Grandmother that Dad was voting tory in 1979, relations between her and my father were frosty for weeks. I wasn't very popular.

    The last few years have been quite dull as both labour and tories abandoned their positions and embraced aspects of liberalism and we had broadly speaking three variants of liberalism on offer with anyone disagreeing disenfranchised other than minor parties who were so extreme that they put ordinary people off. By the early 1990s before she died my Grandmother had come to the opinion that labour and tory were both much the same and equally awful and voting labour at the next election (3 years away in 1997, would make no difference)

    UKIP have now come along and prized open the bottle giving a clear ideological choice for the first time in years, possibly since the 1987 election.

    I do wonder whether certain centre right newspapers are going to suffer permanent circulation damage as a result of the anti UKIP smear campaign which would do credit to zanu-pf at a time when online alternatives such as breitbart are now available.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Grandiose said:

    isam said:

    Grandiose said:

    isam said:


    Sean, read "The Road to National Suicide" by Enoch Powell..

    Here it is.. He made the speech 38 years ago, and it could have been written about this election campaign..



    That's the point, though. Powell thought it was the great an unquenchable issue of his own age, now you're suggesting it's the issue of our own. Few looking back would say that Powell was right: few opponents of immigration point towards the immigration of the 60s or 70s. Yet he was content to paint the picture he did of "the dark motives of those who desire the catastrophic outcome which they foresee" (!)

    I could give many examples of how he was extremely accurate, but its an argument I have had too many times.

    Agree to disagree
    Is there no part of that you're prepared to depart from? Consider rhetorical hyperbole, and concentrate on the grain of truth?

    The Britain of 2014 is patently not a "catastrophic outcome" despite 37 years on "The Road to National Suicide". If Britain is now "unable to escape", I fail to see from what horrifying future is now inevitable.

    Nor do I see the "the New Commonwealth immigrant and immigrant-descended population in our cities unable to live and work in harmony with the rest of the population". UKIP draws more on fears of a more recent wave of immigration - I wonder how many would be prepared to defend Powell's claims.
    As I said, agree to disagree.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    It was much the same between 1979 and 1993, especially during things like the Miners strike, you had two completly different sets of ideology and people had arguments in pubs, fell out and occasionally came to blows over the subject of politics.

    The last few years have been quite dull as both labour and tories abandoned their positions and embraced aspects of liberalism and we had broadly speaking three variants of liberalism on offer with anyone disagreeing disenfranchised other than minor parties who were so extreme that they put ordinary people off. UKIP have now come along and prized open the bottle giving a clear ideological choice for the first time in years, possibly since the 1987 election.

    I do wonder whether certain centre right newspapers are going to suffer permanent circulation damage as a result of the anti UKIP smear campaign which would do credit to zanu-pf at a time when online alternatives such as breitbart are now available.

    Ed West has a lovely line in his article today:

    "...I don’t necessarily want conservative social values to triumph, but I do want them to be a counterweight to liberal ones, and the Tory policy of pre-emptive surrender isn’t entirely effective."

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/05/why-people-will-be-voting-for-ukip-this-thursday/

    Agree with you about the newspapers. It'll be interesting to see if all this affects buying/reading behaviour.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Sean_F said:

    Speedy said:

    SeanT said:

    Sean_F said:

    Excellent post. If turnout were forecast to be 45%+, Labour were actively campaigning and the clear 'anti-UKIP' choice by voters and the media, then I'd be tempted.

    My hunch is that's not going to happen. Yes, I am slightly nervous about Labour (I always am when I stake money on my hunches) but of all my friends who hate UKIP I can't recall a single one who's declared they will vote in the Euros to stop them, yet alone pick Labour as the party best placed to stop then coming top.

    On the other hand, UKIP supporters are uber-motivated and believe that this is their time. I think they're right - but it could be close.

    Amongst my circle of acquaintances, I've noticed several friendships put under strain, over whether people are pro or anti UKIP. I've never experienced anything like that in an election campaign before. Have you experienced this?
    Can you elucidate?
    I think the amount of vitriol poured on UKIP by the media over months, has created a toxic atmosphere of political fanaticism in Britain that is mostly seen in the middle east. I'm surpised we haven't seen people killed in the streets because they support UKIP, but deadly clashes are always one step away when fanatics take over.
    It's weird. You get the feel of the months leading up to a civil war.


    It was much the same between 1979 and 1993, especially during things like the Miners strike, you had two completly different sets of ideology and people had arguments in pubs, fell out and occasionally came to blows over the subject of politics.

    The last few years have been quite dull as both labour and tories abandoned their positions and embraced aspects of liberalism and we had broadly speaking three variants of liberalism on offer with anyone disagreeing disenfranchised other than minor parties who were so extreme that they put ordinary people off. UKIP have now come along and prized open the bottle giving a clear ideological choice for the first time in years, possibly since the 1987 election.

    I do wonder whether certain centre right newspapers are going to suffer permanent circulation damage as a result of the anti UKIP smear campaign which would do credit to zanu-pf at a time when online alternatives such as breitbart are now available.
    It will be funny all the smearing they have done and labour win the Euro's easily and tories finish a poor third.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Congratulations, Dr. X.

    Of course, if you want to run your own mutant academy you'll need to become a professor.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    With all the euro election talk we have forgotten that there are local elections as well. Any predictions about seat changes and how to use that as a proxy for the euros?
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    edited May 2014

    Yes, absolutely. I posted something on facebook saying those attacking UKIP were missing the point. It stirred up a hornet's nest. Another friend also posted an anti-UKIP post (where students shouted f-off back to Toad Hall) and I posted a comment criticising it, and said it would backfire.

    He then said I wasn't UKIP's target audience. When I admitted I had met Farage, and was thinking of voting for him, he got a bit upset. He phoned me to complain about my comment and seemed quite emotional.

    To be honest, I'm now keeping my head down for these reasons. I don't know what that says about me.

    It says you are quite wise not to give these people not thinking rationally a target, a bit like people who have just been bereaved.

    But what has caused this madness? I've been through a similar experience during the Papal Visit in 2010 and I'd like to make a few suggestions.

    UKIP are challenging a deeply held worldview. This provokes a very aggressive reaction in those who simply cannot envisage the way they look at the World being wrong, or think it will collapse at the slightest challenge.

    These are the same yobs active during the Papal Visit and the "indignados"/Occupy or, as I call them, Generation Asshole. These are people who have formed their political opinions during the Long Boom and Socialist Government. An ever-rising number of Government jobs, the only thing their worthless degrees were good for.

    The point is you don't have to have done anything wrong. What exactly did the clergy at St. Paul's do except help the protesters, but they lashed out against them anyway.

    They are grieving for an economic time that has been shown to be false, but woe betide anyone who tells them or shows another way.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    C4 says LD are on course to lose up to 400 council seats with UKIP to get around 100, what about Labour?
  • Unsurprisingly, Andrew Mitchell's letter to the Commissioner of the Police of the Metropolis will change little. That Metropolitan Police officers leaked PC Rowland's account of the incident in Downing Street, and may have had a political motive for doing so, is not in dispute. All that has been confirmed today is that the officers were not in the least bit subtle about doing it. What today's developments shed no light on, is the truth or otherwise of Mr Mitchell and PC Rowland's respective accounts of the incident. Everything that has thus far been revealed is in principle consistent with PC Rowland's account. As I have said before, it is the defamation proceedings that will make or break Mitchell's political future.

    That said, the Commissioner's handling of the media appears to have been highly suspect.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Evening all. Just back from a canvassing session. Bit of ticket splitting being picked up but I'm still surprised by the apparent strength of the Tory vote in my area. I'm certainly hoping it leads to good results on Thursday. I'm going to be pulling a 20-22 hour day on Thursday which is getting a less enticing prospect than a few years ago.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    corporeal said:

    corporeal said:

    Socrates said:

    The Austrian ski-instructor currently _does_ have a say in setting British taxes, and most British people would agree if they thought about it, as do the three main British parties. (You don't want small EU countries setting crazy-low VAT rates and screwing the British taxpayer, so the EU harmonizes them, and the Austrian ski-instructor has as much input into the rates they allow as anyone else.)

    So you're no longer basing your views on what British people actually think but what you're just sure they would think, if they thought about it, because if they did that, they would adopt your views?

    Surely someone as bright as yourself can see the barminess of this logic?
    Iirc the current polling shows a lead for staying in the European Union.

    So the best information we have say that British people would vote for Austrian ski instructors to have a say over some of their taxes and laws.
    That depends on the pollster.

    http://news.opinium.co.uk/opinium-blog/eu-neutrals-err-side-leaving

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_referendum_on_United_Kingdom_membership_of_the_European_Union#2014_2
    Seems to show a definite recent movement towards staying in.

    One of the detailed results of the Welsh political barometer (I've got a thread coming on it) is as UKIP's poll ratings have risen there's been a corresponding rise in support for staying in the EU.
    Mr Hannan wrote a piece on that. His line was that UKIP was using the wrong argument.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100270107/if-it-comes-down-to-immigration-versus-investment-eurosceptics-will-lose/

    I think the 'polling says stay' line may just be a YouGov thing. Opinium, Survation, and TNS all show a majority to 'leave', but YouGov publishes more polls.
    Thing is, Opinium hasn't published a poll in a year or so.

    Of recent pollster, Ipsos Mori and YouGov both show majorities to stay. Survation and TNS lean leaving (Ashcroft has a dead heat).

    I'd trust Ipsos and YouGov over Survation and TNS tbh. Especially with a good number of YouGov polls.
  • @Ninoinoz
    How do you reconcile your slavish obedience to popish hierarchy with your support for UKIP? Papist bishops have been urging their flocks not to vote for the party. Do you have a response to this latest act of priestcraft?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Matthew Goodwin @GoodwinMJ

    "The smears against Nigel Farage & UKIP have reached spectacular depths" http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/douglas-murray

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682
    corporeal said:

    corporeal said:

    corporeal said:

    Socrates said:

    The Austrian ski-instructor currently _does_ have a say in setting British taxes, and most British people would agree if they thought about it, as do the three main British parties. (You don't want small EU countries setting crazy-low VAT rates and screwing the British taxpayer, so the EU harmonizes them, and the Austrian ski-instructor has as much input into the rates they allow as anyone else.)

    So you're no longer basing your views on what British people actually think but what you're just sure they would think, if they thought about it, because if they did that, they would adopt your views?

    Surely someone as bright as yourself can see the barminess of this logic?
    Iirc the current polling shows a lead for staying in the European Union.

    So the best information we have say that British people would vote for Austrian ski instructors to have a say over some of their taxes and laws.
    That depends on the pollster.

    http://news.opinium.co.uk/opinium-blog/eu-neutrals-err-side-leaving

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_referendum_on_United_Kingdom_membership_of_the_European_Union#2014_2
    Seems to show a definite recent movement towards staying in.

    One of the detailed results of the Welsh political barometer (I've got a thread coming on it) is as UKIP's poll ratings have risen there's been a corresponding rise in support for staying in the EU.
    Mr Hannan wrote a piece on that. His line was that UKIP was using the wrong argument.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100270107/if-it-comes-down-to-immigration-versus-investment-eurosceptics-will-lose/

    I think the 'polling says stay' line may just be a YouGov thing. Opinium, Survation, and TNS all show a majority to 'leave', but YouGov publishes more polls.
    Thing is, Opinium hasn't published a poll in a year or so.

    Of recent pollster, Ipsos Mori and YouGov both show majorities to stay. Survation and TNS lean leaving (Ashcroft has a dead heat).

    I'd trust Ipsos and YouGov over Survation and TNS tbh. Especially with a good number of YouGov polls.
    Yougov are also the pollsters who have consistently shown some of the lowest support for UKIP. If it turns out they are the ones out of step with the results of the Euro elections would you consider that would also have implications for their findings regarding the In/Out question?

    I do not mean this as a leading question. I do not read the polls well - probably because of my own bias towards BOO - so would be interested to get your take on this.
  • NextNext Posts: 826
    edited May 2014
    AveryLP said:
    That's very mean/clever making his initials look like the National Front logo.

    I don't think any of this will much reduce UKIP voting in the Euros though.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Ninoinoz said:


    UKIP are challenging a deeply held worldview. This provokes a very aggressive reaction in those who simply cannot envisage the way they look at the World being wrong, or think it will collapse at the slightest challenge.

    No

    UKIP are peddling a nasty brand of petty Nationalism that should be challenged.

    Various flavours have been tried over the years.

    'Your life would be so much better, if it weren't for the Romanians/English/Jews' (delete depending on which petty nationalist is speaking)

    These views are popular, but that doesn't make them any less pernicious.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited May 2014
    corporeal said:

    corporeal said:

    corporeal said:

    Socrates said:

    The Austrian ski-instructor currently _does_ have a say in setting British taxes, and most British people would agree if they thought about it, as do the three main British parties. (You don't want small EU countries setting crazy-low VAT rates and screwing the British taxpayer, so the EU harmonizes them, and the Austrian ski-instructor has as much input into the rates they allow as anyone else.)

    So you're no longer basing your views on what British people actually think but what you're just sure they would think, if they thought about it, because if they did that, they would adopt your views?

    Surely someone as bright as yourself can see the barminess of this logic?
    Iirc the current polling shows a lead for staying in the European Union.

    So the best information we have say that British people would vote for Austrian ski instructors to have a say over some of their taxes and laws.
    That depends on the pollster.

    http://news.opinium.co.uk/opinium-blog/eu-neutrals-err-side-leaving

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_referendum_on_United_Kingdom_membership_of_the_European_Union#2014_2
    Seems to show a definite recent movement towards staying in.

    One of the detailed results of the Welsh political barometer (I've got a thread coming on it) is as UKIP's poll ratings have risen there's been a corresponding rise in support for staying in the EU.
    Mr Hannan wrote a piece on that. His line was that UKIP was using the wrong argument.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100270107/if-it-comes-down-to-immigration-versus-investment-eurosceptics-will-lose/

    I think the 'polling says stay' line may just be a YouGov thing. Opinium, Survation, and TNS all show a majority to 'leave', but YouGov publishes more polls.
    Thing is, Opinium hasn't published a poll in a year or so.

    Of recent pollster, Ipsos Mori and YouGov both show majorities to stay. Survation and TNS lean leaving (Ashcroft has a dead heat).

    I'd trust Ipsos and YouGov over Survation and TNS tbh. Especially with a good number of YouGov polls.
    The most recent Opinium is April, they're just not on the Wikipedia page. The two recent 'leave' polls on wikipedia are ones I added this week. There may well be more out there.

    We know there are house effects with pollsters UKIP values. It's logical that could also spill over into leave/stay EU polling.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/7744
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2014
    @RichardTyndall

    Last 12 months EU in or out polls and the UKIP score from that pollster on that day

    The average "Dont Know" was 16.3

    Pollster. OUT. UKIP.
    IPSOS 37.00 11
    YG 38.00 15
    SU 46.00 18
    YG 38.00 12
    YG 38.00 12
    YG 37.00 11
    YG 36.00 11
    YG 36.00 10
    YG 39.00 13
    YG 39.00 12
    LA 41.00
    YG 43.00 11
    YG 39.00 11
    YG 44.00 11
    OP 53.00 17
    YG 45.00 11
    YG 46.00 12
    SU 51.00
    SU 50.00 22
    YG 45.00 14
    CR 46.00 19



  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    England fall just short (9 runs, 3 wickets in hand) in the T20, another impressive Malinga performance.
  • BlueberryBlueberry Posts: 408
    ToryJim said:

    Evening all. Just back from a canvassing session. Bit of ticket splitting being picked up but I'm still surprised by the apparent strength of the Tory vote in my area. I'm certainly hoping it leads to good results on Thursday. I'm going to be pulling a 20-22 hour day on Thursday which is getting a less enticing prospect than a few years ago.

    Thanks for the ground report. Always good to here voices from the front. Out of interest, do any of the split-ticket kippers mention 'media slurs', or is that just apparent to kipper-inclined anoraks on here?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited May 2014
    Speedy said:

    C4 says LD are on course to lose up to 400 council seats with UKIP to get around 100, what about Labour?

    Looks like the LDs have had a rough campaign then. They were being predicted 340 losses at the end of April.

    http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/04/29/the-2014-rallings-and-thrasher-local-elections-forecasts/

    UKIP must be on for >100 surely? They were predicted 50 in London alone.

    http://www.londoncommunications.co.uk/2014/05/lca-predicts-2014-local-elections/
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Evening all and I see some of our number are a bit tetchy tonight. Must be the approaching D Day on Thursday when some realise they have been done by the bookies and their own decision to bet with their hearts rather than their heads.

    Lovely to see Ed the Bland one make such an arse of himself. Reckon the Labour group leader will be awarded a Life Peerage in Dave's dissolution honours list for that Ed cock-up. Clearly it will be the front page headline in the local regional newspaper tomorrow. Should do Labour's chances in Swindon a power of good!

    I have to say I was rather bemused at the sight of a black UKIP member/supporter remonstrating with the young black chap from the band which withdrew from the UKIP event today. Did the band seriously expect us to believe it hadn't enquired for whom it had been booked to play?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    I think that Catholic Church is quite pro EU. Most EU countries are majority Catholic, with the main minority religions being the Protestant North and the Orthodox Balkans, though increasingly all countries are secular.

    The freedom of movement in the EU has increased the Catholic population of the UK by nearly a million, and made Catholic Churches and Schools burst at the seams.

    I am not suggesting that the EU is a papist plot, but the EU and the Catholic Church do have a lot of common interests.

    @Ninoinoz
    How do you reconcile your slavish obedience to popish hierarchy with your support for UKIP? Papist bishops have been urging their flocks not to vote for the party. Do you have a response to this latest act of priestcraft?

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft · 3 mins
    Ashcroft National Poll for the General Election 2015. Average of last two polls. LAB 33.5% CON 31.5% UKIP 14.5% LDEM 9.0%

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2014

    Evening all and I see some of our number are a bit tetchy tonight. Must be the approaching D Day on Thursday when some realise they have been done by the bookies and their own decision to bet with their hearts rather than their heads.

    Lovely to see Ed the Bland one make such an arse of himself. Reckon the Labour group leader will be awarded a Life Peerage in Dave's dissolution honours list for that Ed cock-up. Clearly it will be the front page headline in the local regional newspaper tomorrow. Should do Labour's chances in Swindon a power of good!

    I have to say I was rather bemused at the sight of a black UKIP member/supporter remonstrating with the young black chap from the band which withdrew from the UKIP event today. Did the band seriously expect us to believe it hadn't enquired for whom it had been booked to play?

    I am on UKIP at 10/11 and the Tories at 25/1 so cant complain too much.

    Best result is the Tories despite laying to lose a monkey at 15/2

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Page not found, Mr. Johnno.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    Grandiose said:

    England fall just short (9 runs, 3 wickets in hand) in the T20, another impressive Malinga performance.

    That makes it sound like it was close but it wasn't. England never gave themselves a chance.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682
    OT. This is rather funny in a Sean T kind of way (I suspect Sean gets some of his inspiration from PJ O'Rourke).

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/05/18/my-commencement-speech-to-rutgers-geniuses-go-forth-and-fail.html
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534

    Sean_F said:

    Speedy said:

    SeanT said:

    Sean_F said:

    Excellent post. If turnout were forecast to be 45%+, Labour were actively campaigning and the clear 'anti-UKIP' choice by voters and the media, then I'd be tempted.

    My hunch is that's not going to happen. Yes, I am slightly nervous about Labour (I always am when I stake money on my hunches) but of all my friends who hate UKIP I can't recall a single one who's declared they will vote in the Euros to stop them, yet alone pick Labour as the party best placed to stop then coming top.

    On the other hand, UKIP supporters are uber-motivated and believe that this is their time. I think they're right - but it could be close.

    Amongst my circle of acquaintances, I've noticed several friendships put under strain, over whether people are pro or anti UKIP. I've never experienced anything like that in an election campaign before. Have you experienced this?
    Can you elucidate?



    It was much the same between 1979 and 1993, especially during things like the Miners strike, you had two completly different sets of ideology and people had arguments in pubs, fell out and occasionally came to blows over the subject of politics. I can remember as a child proudly telling my Grandmother that Dad was voting tory in 1979, relations between her and my father were frosty for weeks. I wasn't very popular.

    The last few years have been quite dull as both labour and tories abandoned their positions and embraced aspects of liberalism and we had broadly speaking three variants of liberalism on offer with anyone disagreeing disenfranchised other than minor parties who were so extreme that they put ordinary people off. By the early 1990s before she died my Grandmother had come to the opinion that labour and tory were both much the same and equally awful and voting labour at the next election (3 years away in 1997, would make no difference)

    UKIP have now come along and prized open the bottle giving a clear ideological choice for the first time in years, possibly since the 1987 election.

    I do wonder whether certain centre right newspapers are going to suffer permanent circulation damage as a result of the anti UKIP smear campaign which would do credit to zanu-pf at a time when online alternatives such as breitbart are now available.
    The Miners' Strike was almost like a civil war. The opposing sides are somewhat different now.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Love this bit -

    Inevitably the lowest attacks have been saved until the week of the election. For months now the neat drip-feeding of anti-UKIP stories from Conservative Campaign Headquarters direct to the UK press has done everything possible to depict UKIP as a racist, xenophobic, bigoted party

  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    AveryLP said:
    Unlike so many similar efforts that one's rather good. Nicely captures the bluff Farage idiom.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    edited May 2014

    corporeal said:

    corporeal said:

    corporeal said:

    Socrates said:


    Surely someone as bright as yourself can see the barminess of this logic?
    Seems to show a definite recent movement towards staying in.

    One of the detailed results of the Welsh political barometer (I've got a thread coming on it) is as UKIP's poll ratings have risen there's been a corresponding rise in support for staying in the EU.
    Mr Hannan wrote a piece on that. His line was that UKIP was using the wrong argument.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100270107/if-it-comes-down-to-immigration-versus-investment-eurosceptics-will-lose/

    I think the 'polling says stay' line may just be a YouGov thing. Opinium, Survation, and TNS all show a majority to 'leave', but YouGov publishes more polls.
    Thing is, Opinium hasn't published a poll in a year or so.

    Of recent pollster, Ipsos Mori and YouGov both show majorities to stay. Survation and TNS lean leaving (Ashcroft has a dead heat).

    I'd trust Ipsos and YouGov over Survation and TNS tbh. Especially with a good number of YouGov polls.
    Yougov are also the pollsters who have consistently shown some of the lowest support for UKIP. If it turns out they are the ones out of step with the results of the Euro elections would you consider that would also have implications for their findings regarding the In/Out question?

    I do not mean this as a leading question. I do not read the polls well - probably because of my own bias towards BOO - so would be interested to get your take on this.
    It depends really. The really difficult part of Euro elections is working out who will turn out (especially with some areas have locals and others don't).

    If YouGov are out of step based on their turnout filter then I'd still be confident in them since I'd reckon on an EU referendum (assuming it's combined with another election) would have a higher turnout rate than an average EU election and that'd make the turnout measurements easier.

    If it wasn't just their turnout filter that was off then I would be concerned and lean towards other pollsters.

    EDITED TO ADD

    YouGov have the lowest UKIP scores because they rate lower motivation voters the highest (others either exclude them altogether or downweight them more).

    I think this is a problem for lower turnout elections, but for higher ones it would be less of an issue.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Cheers, Mr. Johnno.

    Douglas Murray is a top chap.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682
    corporeal said:

    corporeal said:

    corporeal said:

    corporeal said:

    Socrates said:


    Surely someone as bright as yourself can see the barminess of this logic?
    Seems to show a definite recent movement towards staying in.

    One of the detailed results of the Welsh political barometer (I've got a thread coming on it) is as UKIP's poll ratings have risen there's been a corresponding rise in support for staying in the EU.
    Mr Hannan wrote a piece on that. His line was that UKIP was using the wrong argument.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100270107/if-it-comes-down-to-immigration-versus-investment-eurosceptics-will-lose/

    I think the 'polling says stay' line may just be a YouGov thing. Opinium, Survation, and TNS all show a majority to 'leave', but YouGov publishes more polls.
    Thing is, Opinium hasn't published a poll in a year or so.

    Of recent pollster, Ipsos Mori and YouGov both show majorities to stay. Survation and TNS lean leaving (Ashcroft has a dead heat).

    I'd trust Ipsos and YouGov over Survation and TNS tbh. Especially with a good number of YouGov polls.
    Yougov are also the pollsters who have consistently shown some of the lowest support for UKIP. If it turns out they are the ones out of step with the results of the Euro elections would you consider that would also have implications for their findings regarding the In/Out question?

    I do not mean this as a leading question. I do not read the polls well - probably because of my own bias towards BOO - so would be interested to get your take on this.
    It depends really. The really difficult part of Euro elections is working out who will turn out (especially with some areas have locals and others don't).

    If YouGov are out of step based on their turnout filter then I'd still be confident in them since I'd reckon on an EU referendum (assuming it's combined with another election) would have a higher turnout rate than an average EU election and that'd make the turnout measurements easier.

    If it wasn't just their turnout filter that was off then I would be concerned and lean towards other pollsters.
    Ta. As I say I am completely useless at reading the polls and public opinion which is why I very rarely bet on them. The up side is that I am always surprised by the results :-)
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Blueberry said:

    ToryJim said:

    Evening all. Just back from a canvassing session. Bit of ticket splitting being picked up but I'm still surprised by the apparent strength of the Tory vote in my area. I'm certainly hoping it leads to good results on Thursday. I'm going to be pulling a 20-22 hour day on Thursday which is getting a less enticing prospect than a few years ago.

    Thanks for the ground report. Always good to here voices from the front. Out of interest, do any of the split-ticket kippers mention 'media slurs', or is that just apparent to kipper-inclined anoraks on here?
    Most of them think Euro elections are joke elections but local ones count. Therefore prepared to vote UKIP euro but revert to traditional party support in locals. I haven't found many UKIP voters supporting them for their own sake. Suggests their vote will crater next year. Met one person who was intending to vote UKIP but switched to Green because his wife is Kenyan and he couldn't vote for them even as a joke, but that's the only oblique reference I've picked up.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549


    Ta. As I say I am completely useless at reading the polls and public opinion which is why I very rarely bet on them. The up side is that I am always surprised by the results :-)

    I edited to add a small addendum.

    YouGov have the lowest UKIP scores because they rate lower motivation voters the highest (others either exclude them altogether or downweight them more).

    I think this is a problem for lower turnout elections, but for higher ones it would be less of an issue.
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    AveryLP said:
    I particularly liked this bit:

    "Some of those 'Likes' come from people with names featuring more vowels than consonants."

    My surname has 5 vowels and 2 consonants.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    ToryJim said:

    Blueberry said:

    ToryJim said:

    Evening all. Just back from a canvassing session. Bit of ticket splitting being picked up but I'm still surprised by the apparent strength of the Tory vote in my area. I'm certainly hoping it leads to good results on Thursday. I'm going to be pulling a 20-22 hour day on Thursday which is getting a less enticing prospect than a few years ago.

    Thanks for the ground report. Always good to here voices from the front. Out of interest, do any of the split-ticket kippers mention 'media slurs', or is that just apparent to kipper-inclined anoraks on here?
    Most of them think Euro elections are joke elections but local ones count. Therefore prepared to vote UKIP euro but revert to traditional party support in locals. I haven't found many UKIP voters supporting them for their own sake. Suggests their vote will crater next year. Met one person who was intending to vote UKIP but switched to Green because his wife is Kenyan and he couldn't vote for them even as a joke, but that's the only oblique reference I've picked up.
    Last years local result was Lab 29%, Con 26%, UKIP 22%, LD 13%.

    Given how increasingly shrill the Conservatives have become as this campaign has progressed, I'm expecting to see them a long way under last year's 26%.

    Friday will be interesting!


  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    isam said:

    Evening all and I see some of our number are a bit tetchy tonight. Must be the approaching D Day on Thursday when some realise they have been done by the bookies and their own decision to bet with their hearts rather than their heads.

    Lovely to see Ed the Bland one make such an arse of himself. Reckon the Labour group leader will be awarded a Life Peerage in Dave's dissolution honours list for that Ed cock-up. Clearly it will be the front page headline in the local regional newspaper tomorrow. Should do Labour's chances in Swindon a power of good!

    I have to say I was rather bemused at the sight of a black UKIP member/supporter remonstrating with the young black chap from the band which withdrew from the UKIP event today. Did the band seriously expect us to believe it hadn't enquired for whom it had been booked to play?

    I am on UKIP at 10/11 and the Tories at 25/1 so cant complain too much.

    Best result is the Tories despite laying to lose a monkey at 15/2

    Isam forgive my ignorance but is "monkey" some sort of slang word for a specific sum of money?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Easterross, £500. Gangster slang, I think.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    With the locals being in the metropolitan areas rather than Shires, even if there had been no change at all, I would expect the Tory vote to be less than 26%.

    If they can get 26% or near in these councils, then they would be looking like a majority government next year.

    ToryJim said:

    Blueberry said:

    ToryJim said:

    Evening all. Just back from a canvassing session. Bit of ticket splitting being picked up but I'm still surprised by the apparent strength of the Tory vote in my area. I'm certainly hoping it leads to good results on Thursday. I'm going to be pulling a 20-22 hour day on Thursday which is getting a less enticing prospect than a few years ago.

    Thanks for the ground report. Always good to here voices from the front. Out of interest, do any of the split-ticket kippers mention 'media slurs', or is that just apparent to kipper-inclined anoraks on here?
    Most of them think Euro elections are joke elections but local ones count. Therefore prepared to vote UKIP euro but revert to traditional party support in locals. I haven't found many UKIP voters supporting them for their own sake. Suggests their vote will crater next year. Met one person who was intending to vote UKIP but switched to Green because his wife is Kenyan and he couldn't vote for them even as a joke, but that's the only oblique reference I've picked up.
    Last years local result was Lab 29%, Con 26%, UKIP 22%, LD 13%.

    Given how increasingly shrill the Conservatives have become as this campaign has progressed, I'm expecting to see them a long way under last year's 26%.

    Friday will be interesting!


  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312

    @Ninoinoz
    How do you reconcile your slavish obedience to popish hierarchy with your support for UKIP?

    Well, because of tossers like you calling Catholics "Papists", thus casting aspersions against our patriotism
    Why don't you f*ck off back to the 16th century where you belong?
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    Mr. Easterross, £500. Gangster slang, I think.

    Mr Dancer, I believe your modern gangster has learnt more from American media and would describe it as half a G.

    Monkey is cockney I believe (related to pony, as mentioned in the Only Fools and Horses theme tune).
This discussion has been closed.