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It does seem to be remarkably focused on transport. One of the mysteries in the early days was the number of air travellers who returned infected from ‘hotspots’ where, in relative terms, only tiny numbers of locals were infected (and how many holidaymakers have sustained contact with many locals?).williamglenn said:
The people who get it in the initial wave are probably disproportionately those who are frequent users of public transport etc, so the 'front line' level of herd immunity could be higher than the raw figures suggest.FrancisUrquhart said:And of course the big exception to big protests / opening up and no sign of increase, New York. It is like you hit 20-25% of people getting it and it starts to become hard for it to spread.
And of course cruise ships.
It is almost as if we have a virus targeted on travellers.1 -
Except that Macron has taken a clear stand and, as ever, Boris is hovering and wobbly with words like “try” and “broadly”FrancisUrquhart said:Macron and Boris on the same page on statue issue.
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Unlocking in the US looks very different to in Europe and elsewhere. Apart from a few people voluntarily wearing masks, you’d never know the difference from a year ago in a lot of places - bars and clubs are starting to re-open at full capacity, no distancing in queues etc.eadric said:But why would Florida be experiencing a 2nd wave, after unlockdowning, when European nations haven't?
What was their R number?
They’ve made the judgement that the cost to the economy is too great with 40m unemployed, so are keeping the vulnerable locked away and letting everyone else go back to life as it was before. The protests have been the spark, that the authorities now realise there’s a limit to how long a lockdown can last in a very liberal democracy.2 -
Improv Comedy club in Texas reopened last Friday - small and crowded space, full of people laughing, is there a more likely scenario to aid spread of a virus?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DXihNDsoqtE0 -
CNN: As of Saturday, coronavirus cases were still increasing in 18 states -- several of which saw record or near-record highs. In 17 states, the numbers were trending downward, and numbers remained steady in 13 states.
Texas saw more than 2,200 people hospitalized with coronavirus Saturday, bypassing a record high the previous day, CNN affiliate KTVT reported. North Carolina set a record with 823 hospitalizations Saturday.
Of the nearly 20 states where numbers surged, Oregon, Nevada, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Alabama and South Carolina recorded an increase of over 50% in the past week as compared to the previous one.
Worth noting that admission to hospital is an indicator with a lag of something like two weeks (one week for symptoms to show and another to turn serious)?0 -
Not really a second wave, as they opened up before the first was under control.RobD said:
Second wave incoming.eadric said:
Though it’s a pretty indeterminate term.
China still trying to keep things under control:
https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1272366995996946432
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I don't think that's quite right. In most European countries, after some really horrendous experiences, lockdowns were kept tight and testing increased to 100k per day levels in most countries. That resulted in, for example in Italy, cases coming down very hard.Sandpit said:
Unlocking in the US looks very different to in Europe and elsewhere. Apart from a few people voluntarily wearing masks, you’d never know the difference from a year ago in a lot of places - bars and clubs are starting to re-open at full capacity, no distancing in queues etc.eadric said:But why would Florida be experiencing a 2nd wave, after unlockdowning, when European nations haven't?
What was their R number?
They’ve made the judgement that the cost to the economy is too great with 40m unemployed, so are keeping the vulnerable locked away and letting everyone else go back to life as it was before. The protests have been the spark, that the authorities now realise there’s a limit to how long a lockdown can last in a very liberal democracy.
And then they've started (gradually) to remove restrictions.
In Florida, I don't think the lockdown was ever *that* strict and I think viral incidence never got really low. (And given there are effectively no barriers to travelling between states in the US, it's hard to see whether a full lockdown is really achievable.)
Now, as you say, the lockdown is being lifted all at once.
The question is whether US states will be able to keep incidence at "annoyance" levels - i.e. Georgia cases sticking to 700/day - or whether it takes off and you have another New York somewhere. Florida, with its large elderly population is probably particularly at risk. If you have a big second wave (and some US states look like that's happening) then the US is going to have a second lockdown, at the same time the rest of the world is getting over CV-19.
We won't know for sure what's worked for another 12 months or so.1 -
I see Google have sorted out their ‘Winston Churchill problem’ from yesterday.
No doubt they’ll continue to hide behind saying the computer did it, as if that absolves themselves from any responsibility. Wait until something similar happens in the run-up to the US election.0 -
I’m not sure that anywhere in the US, except New York, ever had a real lockdown to the extent of what’s been seen elsewhere in the world.rcs1000 said:
I don't think that's quite right. In most European countries, after some really horrendous experiences, lockdowns were kept tight and testing increased to 100k per day levels in most countries. That resulted in, for example in Italy, cases coming down very hard.Sandpit said:
Unlocking in the US looks very different to in Europe and elsewhere. Apart from a few people voluntarily wearing masks, you’d never know the difference from a year ago in a lot of places - bars and clubs are starting to re-open at full capacity, no distancing in queues etc.eadric said:But why would Florida be experiencing a 2nd wave, after unlockdowning, when European nations haven't?
What was their R number?
They’ve made the judgement that the cost to the economy is too great with 40m unemployed, so are keeping the vulnerable locked away and letting everyone else go back to life as it was before. The protests have been the spark, that the authorities now realise there’s a limit to how long a lockdown can last in a very liberal democracy.
And then they've started (gradually) to remove restrictions.
In Florida, I don't think the lockdown was ever *that* strict and I think viral incidence never got really low. (And given there are effectively no barriers to travelling between states in the US, it's hard to see whether a full lockdown is really achievable.)
Now, as you say, the lockdown is being lifted all at once.
The question is whether US states will be able to keep incidence at "annoyance" levels - i.e. Georgia cases sticking to 700/day - or whether it takes off and you have another New York somewhere. Florida, with its large elderly population is probably particularly at risk. If you have a big second wave (and some US states look like that's happening) then the US is going to have a second lockdown, at the same time the rest of the world is getting over CV-19.
We won't know for sure what's worked for another 12 months or so.
I’m not aware of any state borders being closed, although air traffic was well down, but hell at least half a dozen cars went for the coast-to-coast Cannonball Run record, which now stands at under 26 hours for the 2,900 miles from NY to LA.
UK and USA both suffer from people being distrustful of authority, but the level of individualism is much higher in the States - and their stimulus money wasn’t well targeted so has run out quickly, many people and businesses now have little choice but to go back to work.
As you say, we will see by next year how things turned out all over the world. It may well be that the US can rebound more quickly because immunity is higher, or it may be terrible.0 -
Exactly, two quite different usages of the term are i) an significant increase in numbers due to relaxation, and ii) the almost inevitable increase in mid/late autumn as the cold and flu season takes off.Nigelb said:
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2,200 hospitalised in Texas on a single day??? That can't be right.IanB2 said:CNN: As of Saturday, coronavirus cases were still increasing in 18 states -- several of which saw record or near-record highs. In 17 states, the numbers were trending downward, and numbers remained steady in 13 states.
Texas saw more than 2,200 people hospitalized with coronavirus Saturday, bypassing a record high the previous day, CNN affiliate KTVT reported. North Carolina set a record with 823 hospitalizations Saturday.
Of the nearly 20 states where numbers surged, Oregon, Nevada, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Alabama and South Carolina recorded an increase of over 50% in the past week as compared to the previous one.
Worth noting that admission to hospital is an indicator with a lag of something like two weeks (one week for symptoms to show and another to turn serious)?0 -
It's no mystery, it's all to do with the product of proximity and airflow, on transport and in other settings. People on planes and cruise ships are packed densely and the disease is then amplified by air conditioning. Rail and tube commuters don't benefit from decent air conditioning to alleviate their hot sweaty journeys but are crammed together like sardines in a tin can. People who gather to sing in choirs stand in close proximity and then exhale vigorously for long periods.IanB2 said:It does seem to be remarkably focused on transport. One of the mysteries in the early days was the number of air travellers who returned infected from ‘hotspots’ where, in relative terms, only tiny numbers of locals were infected (and how many holidaymakers have sustained contact with many locals?).
And of course cruise ships.
It is almost as if we have a virus targeted on travellers.
All of this has been known for some time. It would almost certainly do no harm for activities that don't involve vigorous exhalation and/or aircon systems to continue subject to a one metre restriction outdoors, and more likely than not indoors too. It's quite possible that we could drop most of the Covid mitigation measures outside of hospital and care settings right now without doing any significant harm, save for the following:
*a one metre rule, or some area-based equivalent for indoor premises, to discourage outright overcrowding
*measures to protect travellers on public transport: masking, and the continuation of the order to work from home if possible
*prohibition of anything under the general category of mass singing and shouting events: spectator sports, non-seated concerts, political mass demonstrations, and singing by church congregations and in choral performances
*continued closure of gyms and nightclubs
Right now it would probably be perfectly safe to re-open cafes and restaurants, indoor as well as outdoor, subject to a one metre rule, which would allow most establishments to survive, as well as hotels and guesthouses; museums, art galleries and heritage attractions; and cinemas and theatres. Pubs would probably be OK as well but it might be necessary to mandate table rather than bar service and to restrict the amount of alcohol served to any one customer.
Hairdressers are a bit more contentious because of the prolonged close proximity involved, but these businesses seem to have thought their options through and believe they can cope using a combination of seeing customers by appointment only, no waiting areas, masking and enhanced hygiene measures (and they've also been operating in other badly affected countries like Italy without causing spikes of new cases insofar as I'm aware.)
Unless some of the more optimistic theories about this virus simply dying down to background levels of its own accord turn out to be correct, then I don't think we can return to normal until an effective vaccine or treatment is developed (although FWIW I don't think we're ever going back entirely to how things were - large scale WFH is here to stay.) However, we can get a good proportion of the way there. The main problem is then with the wretched schools...4 -
Brandenburg, the state that encircles Berlin, has today dramtically relaxed the rules. Private parties/functions of up to one thousand people are allowed, but still with 2m social distancing for people not from your own household.
At times like these it pays to know someone who lives 6 km outside the city with a garden!
Another observation is that elbow bumps seem to be the thing to do when greeting or saying good bye to friends.0 -
The comment about choirs and other activities that have "enhanced breathing" has been overexaggerated. It is true that there have been outbreaks traced back to choirs. The infection rate though is due to the singers being in close proximity often (during practice) in smallish rooms. Compared to lets say playing five a side football or being in a gym, choir singers are quite compactly together for well over the critical 10 to 15 minutes. Once this and other social mixing factors are taken into consideration the act of singing is no longer a significant effect.Black_Rook said:
It's no mystery, it's all to do with the product of proximity and airflow, on transport and in other settings. People on planes and cruise ships are packed densely and the disease is then amplified by air conditioning. Rail and tube commuters don't benefit from decent air conditioning to alleviate their hot sweaty journeys but are crammed together like sardines in a tin can. People who gather to sing in choirs stand in close proximity and then exhale vigorously for long periods.IanB2 said:It does seem to be remarkably focused on transport. One of the mysteries in the early days was the number of air travellers who returned infected from ‘hotspots’ where, in relative terms, only tiny numbers of locals were infected (and how many holidaymakers have sustained contact with many locals?).
And of course cruise ships.
It is almost as if we have a virus targeted on travellers.
All of this has been known for some time. It would almost certainly do no harm for activities that don't involve vigorous exhalation and/or aircon systems to continue subject to a one metre restriction outdoors, and more likely than not indoors too. It's quite possible that we could drop most of the Covid mitigation measures outside of hospital and care settings right now without doing any significant harm, save for the following:
*a one metre rule, or some area-based equivalent for indoor premises, to discourage outright overcrowding
*measures to protect travellers on public transport: masking, and the continuation of the order to work from home if possible
*prohibition of anything under the general category of mass singing and shouting events: spectator sports, non-seated concerts, political mass demonstrations, and singing by church congregations and in choral performances
*continued closure of gyms and nightclubs
Right now it would probably be perfectly safe to re-open cafes and restaurants, indoor as well as outdoor, subject to a one metre rule, which would allow most establishments to survive, as well as hotels and guesthouses; museums, art galleries and heritage attractions; and cinemas and theatres. Pubs would probably be OK as well but it might be necessary to mandate table rather than bar service and to restrict the amount of alcohol served to any one customer.
Hairdressers are a bit more contentious because of the prolonged close proximity involved, but these businesses seem to have thought their options through and believe they can cope using a combination of seeing customers by appointment only, no waiting areas, masking and enhanced hygiene measures (and they've also been operating in other badly affected countries like Italy without causing spikes of new cases insofar as I'm aware.)
Unless some of the more optimistic theories about this virus simply dying down to background levels of its own accord turn out to be correct, then I don't think we can return to normal until an effective vaccine or treatment is developed (although FWIW I don't think we're ever going back entirely to how things were - large scale WFH is here to stay.) However, we can get a good proportion of the way there. The main problem is then with the wretched schools...0 -
How is bumping elbows compatible with staying 2m apart from people?eristdoof said:Brandenburg, the state that encircles Berlin, has today dramtically relaxed the rules. Private parties/functions of up to one thousand people are allowed, but still with 2m social distancing for people not from your own household.
At times like these it pays to know someone who lives 6 km outside the city with a garden!
Another observation is that elbow bumps seem to be the thing to do when greeting or saying good bye to friends.
I’m waving at people, rather than touching them.0 -
It's not, it's about 1.45m for half a second. In an area with low levels of infection in a country with low levels of infection this is totally acceptable.Sandpit said:
How is bumping elbows compatible with staying 2m apart from people?eristdoof said:Brandenburg, the state that encircles Berlin, has today dramtically relaxed the rules. Private parties/functions of up to one thousand people are allowed, but still with 2m social distancing for people not from your own household.
At times like these it pays to know someone who lives 6 km outside the city with a garden!
Another observation is that elbow bumps seem to be the thing to do when greeting or saying good bye to friends.
I’m waving at people, rather than touching them.
If you would rather wave, that is fine by me.1 -
Well you would, being so far away.Sandpit said:
How is bumping elbows compatible with staying 2m apart from people?eristdoof said:Brandenburg, the state that encircles Berlin, has today dramtically relaxed the rules. Private parties/functions of up to one thousand people are allowed, but still with 2m social distancing for people not from your own household.
At times like these it pays to know someone who lives 6 km outside the city with a garden!
Another observation is that elbow bumps seem to be the thing to do when greeting or saying good bye to friends.
I’m waving at people, rather than touching them.2 -
A good post.Black_Rook said:
It's no mystery, it's all to do with the product of proximity and airflow, on transport and in other settings. People on planes and cruise ships are packed densely and the disease is then amplified by air conditioning. Rail and tube commuters don't benefit from decent air conditioning to alleviate their hot sweaty journeys but are crammed together like sardines in a tin can. People who gather to sing in choirs stand in close proximity and then exhale vigorously for long periods.IanB2 said:It does seem to be remarkably focused on transport. One of the mysteries in the early days was the number of air travellers who returned infected from ‘hotspots’ where, in relative terms, only tiny numbers of locals were infected (and how many holidaymakers have sustained contact with many locals?).
And of course cruise ships.
It is almost as if we have a virus targeted on travellers.
All of this has been known for some time. It would almost certainly do no harm for activities that don't involve vigorous exhalation and/or aircon systems to continue subject to a one metre restriction outdoors, and more likely than not indoors too. It's quite possible that we could drop most of the Covid mitigation measures outside of hospital and care settings right now without doing any significant harm, save for the following:
*a one metre rule, or some area-based equivalent for indoor premises, to discourage outright overcrowding
*measures to protect travellers on public transport: masking, and the continuation of the order to work from home if possible
*prohibition of anything under the general category of mass singing and shouting events: spectator sports, non-seated concerts, political mass demonstrations, and singing by church congregations and in choral performances
*continued closure of gyms and nightclubs
Right now it would probably be perfectly safe to re-open cafes and restaurants, indoor as well as outdoor, subject to a one metre rule, which would allow most establishments to survive, as well as hotels and guesthouses; museums, art galleries and heritage attractions; and cinemas and theatres. Pubs would probably be OK as well but it might be necessary to mandate table rather than bar service and to restrict the amount of alcohol served to any one customer.
Hairdressers are a bit more contentious because of the prolonged close proximity involved, but these businesses seem to have thought their options through and believe they can cope using a combination of seeing customers by appointment only, no waiting areas, masking and enhanced hygiene measures (and they've also been operating in other badly affected countries like Italy without causing spikes of new cases insofar as I'm aware.)
Unless some of the more optimistic theories about this virus simply dying down to background levels of its own accord turn out to be correct, then I don't think we can return to normal until an effective vaccine or treatment is developed (although FWIW I don't think we're ever going back entirely to how things were - large scale WFH is here to stay.) However, we can get a good proportion of the way there. The main problem is then with the wretched schools...
Imagine if, instead of all the wibbling from Boris and his clueless chums, we had a leader prepared to spell all of this out and map out the path for getting there.0 -
Maybe it’s a cumulative total?rcs1000 said:
2,200 hospitalised in Texas on a single day??? That can't be right.IanB2 said:CNN: As of Saturday, coronavirus cases were still increasing in 18 states -- several of which saw record or near-record highs. In 17 states, the numbers were trending downward, and numbers remained steady in 13 states.
Texas saw more than 2,200 people hospitalized with coronavirus Saturday, bypassing a record high the previous day, CNN affiliate KTVT reported. North Carolina set a record with 823 hospitalizations Saturday.
Of the nearly 20 states where numbers surged, Oregon, Nevada, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Alabama and South Carolina recorded an increase of over 50% in the past week as compared to the previous one.
Worth noting that admission to hospital is an indicator with a lag of something like two weeks (one week for symptoms to show and another to turn serious)?0 -
Viruses tend to become less virulent over time unless they are so virulent that they cannot spread easily. This is why influenza is common but ebola is rare.Black_Rook said:Unless some of the more optimistic theories about this virus simply dying down to background levels of its own accord turn out to be correct, then I don't think we can return to normal until an effective vaccine or treatment is developed (although FWIW I don't think we're ever going back entirely to how things were - large scale WFH is here to stay.) However, we can get a good proportion of the way there. The main problem is then with the wretched schools...
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To be fair there are only 19,000 in the venue.RobD said:
Epidemiologists will be studying this event for decades to come.rottenborough said:
It is just more re-writing of language from the nationalist right. Tickets now means enquiries about tickets not actual tickets. Who will protect the language of our fathers and forefathers (many of whom served in the war you know) from these modern politicians?0 -
We have had 300 000 positive tests and 42 000 confirmed Covid-19 deaths, so actually a 14% Case Fatality Rate.rottenborough said:
10% of UK people who have Covid die? Have I missed something?Foxy said:
At present the case fatality rate in America is over 5%. In the UK the CFR running at well over twice that.eadric said:
Roughly 1% of those infected, which might be 30-50% of the population. 200,000 dead in the UK? Mostly over 70? Or 80?LostPassword said:
At the moment this virus spreads more quickly, and is too fatal, with too few treatment options, for us to live with it as we do other viruses. Too many people will die.Beibheirli_C said:
We can live with the virus. We live with lots of viruses all the time.LostPassword said:The schools plan is absolute bonkers. What about parents who can't "work" from home while their kids are not in school? What about the kids who don't have degree-educated parents who will be supplementing their learning at home?
This sort of nonsense shows that - unless we decide to accept a massive death toll - we cannot live with the virus. We have to do the work to get rid of it so that we can get the schools back as normal.
How many will die from total economic collapse? How many suicides? How many kids damaged forever?
600,000 die every year
1% may be a bit optimistic.
The assumption is probably correct that there are 10 unconfirmed cases for every diagnosed one, so a 1.4% fatality rate, but until we have widespread antibody testing it is an educated guess.
With testing much easier to obtain now, the observed CFR should drop, but it is unlikely that there will still be 10 unconfirmed for every one confirmed.
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I know I have more or less given up on the rather wretched media coverage we have, but Boris & Co seem to have faded from sight. Are they doing anything?IanB2 said:A good post.
Imagine if, instead of all the wibbling from Boris and his clueless chums, we had a leader prepared to spell all of this out and map out the path for getting there.0 -
Smallpox.Beibheirli_C said:
Viruses tend to become less virulent over time unless they are so virulent that they cannot spread easily. This is why influenza is common but ebola is rare.Black_Rook said:Unless some of the more optimistic theories about this virus simply dying down to background levels of its own accord turn out to be correct, then I don't think we can return to normal until an effective vaccine or treatment is developed (although FWIW I don't think we're ever going back entirely to how things were - large scale WFH is here to stay.) However, we can get a good proportion of the way there. The main problem is then with the wretched schools...
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I would read that as "on Saturday, Texas had 2200 inpatients with Covid-19"rcs1000 said:
2,200 hospitalised in Texas on a single day??? That can't be right.IanB2 said:CNN: As of Saturday, coronavirus cases were still increasing in 18 states -- several of which saw record or near-record highs. In 17 states, the numbers were trending downward, and numbers remained steady in 13 states.
Texas saw more than 2,200 people hospitalized with coronavirus Saturday, bypassing a record high the previous day, CNN affiliate KTVT reported. North Carolina set a record with 823 hospitalizations Saturday.
Of the nearly 20 states where numbers surged, Oregon, Nevada, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Alabama and South Carolina recorded an increase of over 50% in the past week as compared to the previous one.
Worth noting that admission to hospital is an indicator with a lag of something like two weeks (one week for symptoms to show and another to turn serious)?
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When using days of the week, Americans seem to drop some key words. Whilst here it would be 2,200 hospitalised with coronavirus on Saturday or 2,200 hospitalised with coronavirus as of Saturday, in the US its quite normal, but unhelpful, for the "on" or "as of" to be missing.IanB2 said:
Maybe it’s a cumulative total?rcs1000 said:
2,200 hospitalised in Texas on a single day??? That can't be right.IanB2 said:CNN: As of Saturday, coronavirus cases were still increasing in 18 states -- several of which saw record or near-record highs. In 17 states, the numbers were trending downward, and numbers remained steady in 13 states.
Texas saw more than 2,200 people hospitalized with coronavirus Saturday, bypassing a record high the previous day, CNN affiliate KTVT reported. North Carolina set a record with 823 hospitalizations Saturday.
Of the nearly 20 states where numbers surged, Oregon, Nevada, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Alabama and South Carolina recorded an increase of over 50% in the past week as compared to the previous one.
Worth noting that admission to hospital is an indicator with a lag of something like two weeks (one week for symptoms to show and another to turn serious)?0 -
Busy working on a vaccine?Beibheirli_C said:
I know I have more or less given up on the rather wretched media coverage we have, but Boris & Co seem to have faded from sight. Are they doing anything?IanB2 said:A good post.
Imagine if, instead of all the wibbling from Boris and his clueless chums, we had a leader prepared to spell all of this out and map out the path for getting there.0 -
If you cannot look after them then don't have children, what is point of having them and then farming them out to strangers like a pet dog.LostPassword said:The schools plan is absolute bonkers. What about parents who can't "work" from home while their kids are not in school? What about the kids who don't have degree-educated parents who will be supplementing their learning at home?
This sort of nonsense shows that - unless we decide to accept a massive death toll - we cannot live with the virus. We have to do the work to get rid of it so that we can get the schools back as normal.0 -
I thought that required knowledge, expertise and skill?Mexicanpete said:
Busy working on a vaccine?Beibheirli_C said:
I know I have more or less given up on the rather wretched media coverage we have, but Boris & Co seem to have faded from sight. Are they doing anything?IanB2 said:A good post.
Imagine if, instead of all the wibbling from Boris and his clueless chums, we had a leader prepared to spell all of this out and map out the path for getting there.0 -
Against Starmer?Mexicanpete said:
Busy working on a vaccine?Beibheirli_C said:
I know I have more or less given up on the rather wretched media coverage we have, but Boris & Co seem to have faded from sight. Are they doing anything?IanB2 said:A good post.
Imagine if, instead of all the wibbling from Boris and his clueless chums, we had a leader prepared to spell all of this out and map out the path for getting there.1 -
Compared to the UK, the US has five times the population, but
Is that how dogs are treated north of the border, Malc?malcolmg said:
If you cannot look after them then don't have children, what is point of having them and then farming them out to strangers like a pet dog.LostPassword said:The schools plan is absolute bonkers. What about parents who can't "work" from home while their kids are not in school? What about the kids who don't have degree-educated parents who will be supplementing their learning at home?
This sort of nonsense shows that - unless we decide to accept a massive death toll - we cannot live with the virus. We have to do the work to get rid of it so that we can get the schools back as normal.0 -
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1272404996961849344Beibheirli_C said:I know I have more or less given up on the rather wretched media coverage we have, but Boris & Co seem to have faded from sight. Are they doing anything?
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/12724059256394588161 -
Maybe he’s only capable of thinking about one thing at a time?Scott_xP said:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1272404996961849344Beibheirli_C said:I know I have more or less given up on the rather wretched media coverage we have, but Boris & Co seem to have faded from sight. Are they doing anything?
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/12724059256394588162 -
Government by opinion polls and focus groups, only needs to govern what is on peoples minds that day.IanB2 said:
Maybe he’s only capable of thinking about one thing at a time?Scott_xP said:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1272404996961849344Beibheirli_C said:I know I have more or less given up on the rather wretched media coverage we have, but Boris & Co seem to have faded from sight. Are they doing anything?
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/12724059256394588162 -
What is there actually to say about the shops being open? They are open. You can go in toIanB2 said:
Maybe he’s only capable of thinking about one thing at a time?Scott_xP said:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1272404996961849344Beibheirli_C said:I know I have more or less given up on the rather wretched media coverage we have, but Boris & Co seem to have faded from sight. Are they doing anything?
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1272405925639458816
them and buy stuff. Previously you couldn't. Now you can.0 -
Like Blair..noneoftheabove said:
Government by opinion polls and focus groups, only needs to govern what is on peoples minds that day.IanB2 said:
Maybe he’s only capable of thinking about one thing at a time?Scott_xP said:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1272404996961849344Beibheirli_C said:I know I have more or less given up on the rather wretched media coverage we have, but Boris & Co seem to have faded from sight. Are they doing anything?
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/12724059256394588160 -
Probably by the end yes. At the start they knew what they wanted to do and got on with it.squareroot2 said:
Like Blair..noneoftheabove said:
Government by opinion polls and focus groups, only needs to govern what is on peoples minds that day.IanB2 said:
Maybe he’s only capable of thinking about one thing at a time?Scott_xP said:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1272404996961849344Beibheirli_C said:I know I have more or less given up on the rather wretched media coverage we have, but Boris & Co seem to have faded from sight. Are they doing anything?
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/12724059256394588162 -
Rawnsley made this observation yesterday:noneoftheabove said:
Government by opinion polls and focus groups, only needs to govern what is on peoples minds that day.IanB2 said:
Maybe he’s only capable of thinking about one thing at a time?Scott_xP said:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1272404996961849344Beibheirli_C said:I know I have more or less given up on the rather wretched media coverage we have, but Boris & Co seem to have faded from sight. Are they doing anything?
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1272405925639458816
To an extent perhaps still not fully appreciated, this Number 10 is obsessed with polling and focus grouping, which they conduct daily, and how things are projected in the media. “The problem with this government is that it is led by journalists,” says one senior official.
“Action this day” was one of Winston Churchill’s famous injunctions. For Boris Johnson, it has been: “An empty pledge to get me through the day.” Where energy ought to have been directed to making important things happen, it was expended on concocting brags that might temporarily garner approving headlines or neutralise hostile ones. The result has been a persistent pattern of over-promising and underperforming.
3 -
New government in Ireland: FF, FG, Grn.0
-
I was pre-empting the Boris fanbois.Beibheirli_C said:
I thought that required knowledge, expertise and skill?Mexicanpete said:
Busy working on a vaccine?Beibheirli_C said:
I know I have more or less given up on the rather wretched media coverage we have, but Boris & Co seem to have faded from sight. Are they doing anything?IanB2 said:A good post.
Imagine if, instead of all the wibbling from Boris and his clueless chums, we had a leader prepared to spell all of this out and map out the path for getting there.
Anyway a classical philosophophy 2:1 from Balliol College, Oxford, is surely qualification enough.2 -
It had the advantage of being easy to spot carriers and we (humanity) lived with it all our history and it was certainly more dangerous than covid.IshmaelZ said:
Smallpox.Beibheirli_C said:
Viruses tend to become less virulent over time unless they are so virulent that they cannot spread easily. This is why influenza is common but ebola is rare.Black_Rook said:Unless some of the more optimistic theories about this virus simply dying down to background levels of its own accord turn out to be correct, then I don't think we can return to normal until an effective vaccine or treatment is developed (although FWIW I don't think we're ever going back entirely to how things were - large scale WFH is here to stay.) However, we can get a good proportion of the way there. The main problem is then with the wretched schools...
0 -
Keep your distance.IshmaelZ said:
What is there actually to say about the shops being open? They are open. You can go in toIanB2 said:
Maybe he’s only capable of thinking about one thing at a time?Scott_xP said:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1272404996961849344Beibheirli_C said:I know I have more or less given up on the rather wretched media coverage we have, but Boris & Co seem to have faded from sight. Are they doing anything?
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1272405925639458816
them and buy stuff. Previously you couldn't. Now you can.
Minimise touching stuff you are not sure about buying and follow shops rules.
Dont go in big groups.
Dont spend lots of time in shops or treat it as a leisure activity.
Wear a mask.
Help your local small businesses.2 -
His spin and bluster is the one thing from the government that is truly world class! People love it.IanB2 said:
Rawnsley made this observation yesterday:noneoftheabove said:
Government by opinion polls and focus groups, only needs to govern what is on peoples minds that day.IanB2 said:
Maybe he’s only capable of thinking about one thing at a time?Scott_xP said:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1272404996961849344Beibheirli_C said:I know I have more or less given up on the rather wretched media coverage we have, but Boris & Co seem to have faded from sight. Are they doing anything?
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1272405925639458816
To an extent perhaps still not fully appreciated, this Number 10 is obsessed with polling and focus grouping, which they conduct daily, and how things are projected in the media. “The problem with this government is that it is led by journalists,” says one senior official.
“Action this day” was one of Winston Churchill’s famous injunctions. For Boris Johnson, it has been: “An empty pledge to get me through the day.” Where energy ought to have been directed to making important things happen, it was expended on concocting brags that might temporarily garner approving headlines or neutralise hostile ones. The result has been a persistent pattern of over-promising and underperforming.0 -
If they hadn't done it this week constitutionally they needed to call a new electionStuartDickson said:New government in Ireland: FF, FG, Grn.
0 -
The sort of mind trained by experts like Aristotle who deduced, by pure logic alone, that women have less teeth than men? (Counting teeth was considered a vulgar method not worthy of a trained mind)Mexicanpete said:
A classical philosophophy 2:1 from Balliol College, Oxford, is surely qualification enough.Beibheirli_C said:
I thought that required knowledge, expertise and skill?Mexicanpete said:
Busy working on a vaccine?Beibheirli_C said:
I know I have more or less given up on the rather wretched media coverage we have, but Boris & Co seem to have faded from sight. Are they doing anything?IanB2 said:A good post.
Imagine if, instead of all the wibbling from Boris and his clueless chums, we had a leader prepared to spell all of this out and map out the path for getting there.1 -
Yes, it disproves your thesis.Beibheirli_C said:
It had the advantage of being easy to spot carriers and we (humanity) lived with it all our history and it was certainly more dangerous than covid.IshmaelZ said:
Smallpox.Beibheirli_C said:
Viruses tend to become less virulent over time unless they are so virulent that they cannot spread easily. This is why influenza is common but ebola is rare.Black_Rook said:Unless some of the more optimistic theories about this virus simply dying down to background levels of its own accord turn out to be correct, then I don't think we can return to normal until an effective vaccine or treatment is developed (although FWIW I don't think we're ever going back entirely to how things were - large scale WFH is here to stay.) However, we can get a good proportion of the way there. The main problem is then with the wretched schools...
0 -
Yes, all good poster material, but statues look like a live political issue, and that doesn't.noneoftheabove said:
Keep your distance.IshmaelZ said:
What is there actually to say about the shops being open? They are open. You can go in toIanB2 said:
Maybe he’s only capable of thinking about one thing at a time?Scott_xP said:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1272404996961849344Beibheirli_C said:I know I have more or less given up on the rather wretched media coverage we have, but Boris & Co seem to have faded from sight. Are they doing anything?
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1272405925639458816
them and buy stuff. Previously you couldn't. Now you can.
Minimise touching stuff you are not sure about buying and follow shops rules.
Dont go in big groups.
Dont spend lots of time in shops or treat it as a leisure activity.
Wear a mask.
Help your local small businesses.0 -
Well it's now been eradicated and that was done as soon as science gave us clues as to how to eradicate it.IshmaelZ said:
Yes, it disproves your thesis.Beibheirli_C said:
It had the advantage of being easy to spot carriers and we (humanity) lived with it all our history and it was certainly more dangerous than covid.IshmaelZ said:
Smallpox.Beibheirli_C said:
Viruses tend to become less virulent over time unless they are so virulent that they cannot spread easily. This is why influenza is common but ebola is rare.Black_Rook said:Unless some of the more optimistic theories about this virus simply dying down to background levels of its own accord turn out to be correct, then I don't think we can return to normal until an effective vaccine or treatment is developed (although FWIW I don't think we're ever going back entirely to how things were - large scale WFH is here to stay.) However, we can get a good proportion of the way there. The main problem is then with the wretched schools...
0 -
Exactly, the government are more concerned with playing politics than governing. Fine for an opposition or a political journalist, but not great for a PM who appoints a cabinet who wait on his (chief advisors) orders before doing anything.IshmaelZ said:
Yes, all good poster material, but statues look like a live political issue, and that doesn't.noneoftheabove said:
Keep your distance.IshmaelZ said:
What is there actually to say about the shops being open? They are open. You can go in toIanB2 said:
Maybe he’s only capable of thinking about one thing at a time?Scott_xP said:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1272404996961849344Beibheirli_C said:I know I have more or less given up on the rather wretched media coverage we have, but Boris & Co seem to have faded from sight. Are they doing anything?
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1272405925639458816
them and buy stuff. Previously you couldn't. Now you can.
Minimise touching stuff you are not sure about buying and follow shops rules.
Dont go in big groups.
Dont spend lots of time in shops or treat it as a leisure activity.
Wear a mask.
Help your local small businesses.0 -
No it does not disprove it. Smallpox reached a level of virulance that humanity could cope with or else it would have wiped us out. We have lived with it for many millennia.IshmaelZ said:
Yes, it disproves your thesis.Beibheirli_C said:
It had the advantage of being easy to spot carriers and we (humanity) lived with it all our history and it was certainly more dangerous than covid.IshmaelZ said:
Smallpox.Beibheirli_C said:
Viruses tend to become less virulent over time unless they are so virulent that they cannot spread easily. This is why influenza is common but ebola is rare.Black_Rook said:Unless some of the more optimistic theories about this virus simply dying down to background levels of its own accord turn out to be correct, then I don't think we can return to normal until an effective vaccine or treatment is developed (although FWIW I don't think we're ever going back entirely to how things were - large scale WFH is here to stay.) However, we can get a good proportion of the way there. The main problem is then with the wretched schools...
0 -
At a time when the consensus is that footballers are overpaid, spoilt prima donnas with the morality of alley cats Rashford is rather refreshing: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/53042684
A man who has certainly not forgotten where he came from.1 -
I think I had money on that.StuartDickson said:New government in Ireland: FF, FG, Grn.
0 -
All these whingers should be looking after their own children instead of expecting the state to do it and subsidise them. Some people appear to think more of their pets than their children for sure.IanB2 said:Compared to the UK, the US has five times the population, but
Is that how dogs are treated north of the border, Malc?malcolmg said:
If you cannot look after them then don't have children, what is point of having them and then farming them out to strangers like a pet dog.LostPassword said:The schools plan is absolute bonkers. What about parents who can't "work" from home while their kids are not in school? What about the kids who don't have degree-educated parents who will be supplementing their learning at home?
This sort of nonsense shows that - unless we decide to accept a massive death toll - we cannot live with the virus. We have to do the work to get rid of it so that we can get the schools back as normal.0 -
Is it International Point Missing Day?eek said:
Well it's now been eradicated and that was done as soon as science gave us clues as to how to eradicate it.IshmaelZ said:
Yes, it disproves your thesis.Beibheirli_C said:
It had the advantage of being easy to spot carriers and we (humanity) lived with it all our history and it was certainly more dangerous than covid.IshmaelZ said:
Smallpox.Beibheirli_C said:
Viruses tend to become less virulent over time unless they are so virulent that they cannot spread easily. This is why influenza is common but ebola is rare.Black_Rook said:Unless some of the more optimistic theories about this virus simply dying down to background levels of its own accord turn out to be correct, then I don't think we can return to normal until an effective vaccine or treatment is developed (although FWIW I don't think we're ever going back entirely to how things were - large scale WFH is here to stay.) However, we can get a good proportion of the way there. The main problem is then with the wretched schools...
0 -
Which is why the switch is idiotic. They should be trumpeting the re-opening as normality returning and evidence that the pandemic is on the slide. Instead, they have left the management of the biggest health crisis of the last 100 years in limbo whilst they rabbit on about lumps of rock raised to dead people who are mostly forgotten.IshmaelZ said:
Yes, all good poster material, but statues look like a live political issue, and that doesn't.noneoftheabove said:
Keep your distance.IshmaelZ said:
What is there actually to say about the shops being open? They are open. You can go in toIanB2 said:
Maybe he’s only capable of thinking about one thing at a time?Scott_xP said:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1272404996961849344Beibheirli_C said:I know I have more or less given up on the rather wretched media coverage we have, but Boris & Co seem to have faded from sight. Are they doing anything?
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1272405925639458816
them and buy stuff. Previously you couldn't. Now you can.
Minimise touching stuff you are not sure about buying and follow shops rules.
Dont go in big groups.
Dont spend lots of time in shops or treat it as a leisure activity.
Wear a mask.
Help your local small businesses.0 -
JesusBeibheirli_C said:
The sort of mind trained by experts like Aristotle who deduced, by pure logic alone, that women have less teeth than men? (Counting teeth was considered a vulgar method not worthy of a trained mind)Mexicanpete said:
A classical philosophophy 2:1 from Balliol College, Oxford, is surely qualification enough.Beibheirli_C said:
I thought that required knowledge, expertise and skill?Mexicanpete said:
Busy working on a vaccine?Beibheirli_C said:
I know I have more or less given up on the rather wretched media coverage we have, but Boris & Co seem to have faded from sight. Are they doing anything?IanB2 said:A good post.
Imagine if, instead of all the wibbling from Boris and his clueless chums, we had a leader prepared to spell all of this out and map out the path for getting there.
Aristotle wrote: ”Males have more teeth than females in the case of men, sheep, goats, and swine; in the case of other animals observations have not yet been made.”
Observations, see? Not logic.
But you had no need to determine by observation what Aristotle actually said, did you? You knew by pure logic alone.0 -
David Lammy very good on R4 just now.0
-
O/t perhaps, but drifting around the internet I acmes across something from 2019, on a site called Reaction.life.
https://reaction.life/jeremy-vine-my-boris-story/
It's interesting, if rather frightening. And has faint echos of his disastrous Zahari-Ratcjiffe remarks.0 -
One thing would be a step up from his usual modus operandi.IanB2 said:
Maybe he’s only capable of thinking about one thing at a time?Scott_xP said:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1272404996961849344Beibheirli_C said:I know I have more or less given up on the rather wretched media coverage we have, but Boris & Co seem to have faded from sight. Are they doing anything?
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/12724059256394588160 -
0
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Letwin is an intellectual titan compared to some in the current cabinet.another_richard said:1 -
We've talked about this a few times. What it boils down to is that Boris, a very successful and sought after after dinner speaker, had some standard material that he churned out pretty regularly and Vine happened to catch twice. Well, quelle surprise.OldKingCole said:O/t perhaps, but drifting around the internet I acmes across something from 2019, on a site called Reaction.life.
https://reaction.life/jeremy-vine-my-boris-story/
It's interesting, if rather frightening. And has faint echos of his disastrous Zahari-Ratcjiffe remarks.2 -
I am sure this comment was only meant as a "joke" but it's not a very funny one if you've spent the last three months run ragged trying to work to keep a roof over your kids' head while at the same time trying to make sure they are still getting some semblance of an education and dealing with their emotional problems created by not seeing friends and the uncertainty of when they will go back to school. Many parents have to work to pay their mortgage, food bills etc and have not unreasonably built their working lives and childcare arrangements around an expectation that their kids will be in school between 9 and 3.30 - not to mention after school care arrangements that have also been shut down. Like I say, if a joke not funny, if not a joke just pig ignorant.malcolmg said:
If you cannot look after them then don't have children, what is point of having them and then farming them out to strangers like a pet dog.LostPassword said:The schools plan is absolute bonkers. What about parents who can't "work" from home while their kids are not in school? What about the kids who don't have degree-educated parents who will be supplementing their learning at home?
This sort of nonsense shows that - unless we decide to accept a massive death toll - we cannot live with the virus. We have to do the work to get rid of it so that we can get the schools back as normal.1 -
CA-25 has been held by the Republicans since at least the early nineties. The Dems winning it in 2018 was a massive, astronomical upset.MrEd said:
Like with any modelling, the problem is garbage in, garbage out. We had this back in 2016 with the "pussygate" comments by Trump. His polling slumped, everyone said the race was over and Trump was done. What was found in hindsight is that his support never really changed, it was just that people became more reticent to admit to a pollster that they supported Trump. I really don't think that has changed and not because I want to do a Nelson and turn a blind eye to data that doesn't support my case but because the recent results suggest enthusiasm remains high and If he is selling way past 800K tickets for a rally, that doesn't suggest someone who is seeing flagging enthusiasm, quite the opposite.Foxy said:
Some people may be on the fence with Biden, but others are breaking to him, including non college whites.MrEd said:
As you said Harris is favourite because she is seen as the low risk option. But she may not be the low risk option if she angers the BLM like thiskinabalu said:
I'm expecting it to be Harris. As you say, she is the low risk option. But the reason I think Biden will pick her is not because he is innately conservative - although he probably is - but because in sporting parlance the election is Biden's to lose and he will know this. All he has to do is not lose it and he wins. If it was looking on more on a knife edge - and definitely if he was in trouble - I think he would be more likely to take a risk with his choice of running mate. I like Harris btw. And I think she will make a good president in 2024 (or earlier).rcs1000 said:
Harris is favourite because Biden is, ultimately, extremely conservative. He won't to rock the boat at all. So he needs someone with experience, someone moderate, someone who doesn't scare a single person into voting against Biden.DeClare said:Dunno why Kamala Harris is so strongly fancied when her state is a certainty to vote for Biden, or almost anyone who's not Donald Trump.
She launched her own campaign for President and got nowhere, so if I was Biden I'd look for someone, I agree that it will almost certainly be a woman, who can appeal to voters in a swing state, such as Florida for example.
Harris fits that bill. She may be boring. But that's the low risk option.
https://nypost.com/2020/06/13/joe-biden-considering-ex-cop-as-veep-amid-calls-to-defund-the-police/
The comment here that is interesting from the NY BLM Chairman is that people are already on the fence about Biden. That is why I don't think either Harris or Demings is the safe choice. Both of them will have past history which, in the current environment, risks a large chunk of the activist base opposing Biden.
I argued in my post for Lujan. I can see Rice getting the pick but she may be seen as too intellectual for the current climate. The one I probably dismissed too quickly is Bottoms. She acted quickly in accepting the resignation of the police chief over a shooting and is getting some praise. But I still think it will be Lujan.
https://www.pluralvote.com/article/biden-trump-base.php
Let me put it another way. I know many on here have pointed to the CA-25 win as an aberration but imagine we had a by-election where we had a seemingly unpopular Government take back a seat it had lost at the last election and not only win it but with a handsome majority, If somebody came on here and said that doesn't really much, would we believe it?0 -
Certainly he is right that this commission announcement is solely about today's headlines and buying time.OnlyLivingBoy said:David Lammy very good on R4 just now.
0 -
The government can’t win. If they spent the morning talking about the shops reopening, they’d be asked if black lives no longer matter to them?IshmaelZ said:
Yes, all good poster material, but statues look like a live political issue, and that doesn't.noneoftheabove said:
Keep your distance.IshmaelZ said:
What is there actually to say about the shops being open? They are open. You can go in toIanB2 said:
Maybe he’s only capable of thinking about one thing at a time?Scott_xP said:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1272404996961849344Beibheirli_C said:I know I have more or less given up on the rather wretched media coverage we have, but Boris & Co seem to have faded from sight. Are they doing anything?
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1272405925639458816
them and buy stuff. Previously you couldn't. Now you can.
Minimise touching stuff you are not sure about buying and follow shops rules.
Dont go in big groups.
Dont spend lots of time in shops or treat it as a leisure activity.
Wear a mask.
Help your local small businesses.
The reality is somewhere in the middle of course, my guess is that they want a ‘soft’ opening of retail, rather than High Streets looking like it’s 10am on Boxing Day.0 -
Geniune question: why?Scott_xP said:
That says Trump is an evil bigot, whilst Biden is a saint.
It might speak to those who already think that way, but what about the undecided?
If I were already a reluctant Trump supporter, how would that peel me away?
Edit: I know this guy is a Republican.0 -
The markets are down. Almost no one is talking about this but it is EXTREMELY bad news. Second spike in China.
No one should be talking about 2 metre rules, easing lockdown blah blah. We should all have an eye to what's happening right now in China.
Sorry to sound like Eadric 3 months ago but we're in deep trouble again if this takes a hold.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-53046454
0 -
Heads on the chopping block include that of Gavin Williamson, the education secretary, who is accused by some close to Johnson of allowing the return of schools before his plans were ready, and of bowing to pressure from the teaching unions to then abandon the move. One colleague said: “There comes a moment when you realise he has the looks and mannerisms of Frank Spencer, and once you realise that, you can never unsee it.”Mexicanpete said:Letwin is an intellectual titan compared to some in the current cabinet.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-is-tied-up-in-knots-over-the-coronavirus-7t6h9jl3z3 -
Will they ever come up with a vaccine to combat smug?IshmaelZ said:
Is it International Point Missing Day?eek said:
Well it's now been eradicated and that was done as soon as science gave us clues as to how to eradicate it.IshmaelZ said:
Yes, it disproves your thesis.Beibheirli_C said:
It had the advantage of being easy to spot carriers and we (humanity) lived with it all our history and it was certainly more dangerous than covid.IshmaelZ said:
Smallpox.Beibheirli_C said:
Viruses tend to become less virulent over time unless they are so virulent that they cannot spread easily. This is why influenza is common but ebola is rare.Black_Rook said:Unless some of the more optimistic theories about this virus simply dying down to background levels of its own accord turn out to be correct, then I don't think we can return to normal until an effective vaccine or treatment is developed (although FWIW I don't think we're ever going back entirely to how things were - large scale WFH is here to stay.) However, we can get a good proportion of the way there. The main problem is then with the wretched schools...
0 -
Is it about peeling away Trump supporters or encouraging GOTV and campaigning at this stage?Casino_Royale said:
Geniune question: why?Scott_xP said:
That says Trump is an evil bigot, whilst Biden is a saint.
It might speak to those who already think that way, but what about the undecided?
If I were already a reluctant Trump supporter, how would that peel me away?0 -
You farm them out to strangers so you can spend more time with your pet dog.malcolmg said:
If you cannot look after them then don't have children, what is point of having them and then farming them out to strangers like a pet dog.LostPassword said:The schools plan is absolute bonkers. What about parents who can't "work" from home while their kids are not in school? What about the kids who don't have degree-educated parents who will be supplementing their learning at home?
This sort of nonsense shows that - unless we decide to accept a massive death toll - we cannot live with the virus. We have to do the work to get rid of it so that we can get the schools back as normal.
Ultimately, a dog will love you more than a child ever will.0 -
That's delightful.rottenborough said:1 -
That will be a firstOnlyLivingBoy said:David Lammy very good on R4 just now.
0 -
IIRC there was a massive Dem turnout issue last time, they'll be thinking that they don't actually need to waste efforts trying to bring 2016 Trump voters with them if they can get 2012 Obama voters who were 2016 abstainers to turn out instead. We'll find out in November if that's a viable strategy. A lot of states won by Trump had turnouts in the 50-60% range last time.Philip_Thompson said:
Is it about peeling away Trump supporters or encouraging GOTV and campaigning at this stage?Casino_Royale said:
Geniune question: why?Scott_xP said:
That says Trump is an evil bigot, whilst Biden is a saint.
It might speak to those who already think that way, but what about the undecided?
If I were already a reluctant Trump supporter, how would that peel me away?0 -
Yes and the contrast with it happening in a burger chains car park is frightening.kle4 said:
That's delightful.rottenborough said:0 -
-
This cabinet includes Patel, Williamson and Raab (someone who didn't understand that Dover was so important that it has a backup dual carriageway).another_richard said:
Anyone of them can give Letwin a run for worst cabinet minister and would easily win.0 -
-
It comfortably voted for both Hilary in Harris in 2016 so the type of place which would be lost in a mid term protest vote.Alistair said:
CA-25 has been held by the Republicans since at least the early nineties. The Dems winning it in 2018 was a massive, astronomical upset.MrEd said:
Like with any modelling, the problem is garbage in, garbage out. We had this back in 2016 with the "pussygate" comments by Trump. His polling slumped, everyone said the race was over and Trump was done. What was found in hindsight is that his support never really changed, it was just that people became more reticent to admit to a pollster that they supported Trump. I really don't think that has changed and not because I want to do a Nelson and turn a blind eye to data that doesn't support my case but because the recent results suggest enthusiasm remains high and If he is selling way past 800K tickets for a rally, that doesn't suggest someone who is seeing flagging enthusiasm, quite the opposite.Foxy said:
Some people may be on the fence with Biden, but others are breaking to him, including non college whites.MrEd said:
As you said Harris is favourite because she is seen as the low risk option. But she may not be the low risk option if she angers the BLM like thiskinabalu said:
I'm expecting it to be Harris. As you say, she is the low risk option. But the reason I think Biden will pick her is not because he is innately conservative - although he probably is - but because in sporting parlance the election is Biden's to lose and he will know this. All he has to do is not lose it and he wins. If it was looking on more on a knife edge - and definitely if he was in trouble - I think he would be more likely to take a risk with his choice of running mate. I like Harris btw. And I think she will make a good president in 2024 (or earlier).rcs1000 said:
Harris is favourite because Biden is, ultimately, extremely conservative. He won't to rock the boat at all. So he needs someone with experience, someone moderate, someone who doesn't scare a single person into voting against Biden.DeClare said:Dunno why Kamala Harris is so strongly fancied when her state is a certainty to vote for Biden, or almost anyone who's not Donald Trump.
She launched her own campaign for President and got nowhere, so if I was Biden I'd look for someone, I agree that it will almost certainly be a woman, who can appeal to voters in a swing state, such as Florida for example.
Harris fits that bill. She may be boring. But that's the low risk option.
https://nypost.com/2020/06/13/joe-biden-considering-ex-cop-as-veep-amid-calls-to-defund-the-police/
The comment here that is interesting from the NY BLM Chairman is that people are already on the fence about Biden. That is why I don't think either Harris or Demings is the safe choice. Both of them will have past history which, in the current environment, risks a large chunk of the activist base opposing Biden.
I argued in my post for Lujan. I can see Rice getting the pick but she may be seen as too intellectual for the current climate. The one I probably dismissed too quickly is Bottoms. She acted quickly in accepting the resignation of the police chief over a shooting and is getting some praise. But I still think it will be Lujan.
https://www.pluralvote.com/article/biden-trump-base.php
Let me put it another way. I know many on here have pointed to the CA-25 win as an aberration but imagine we had a by-election where we had a seemingly unpopular Government take back a seat it had lost at the last election and not only win it but with a handsome majority, If somebody came on here and said that doesn't really much, would we believe it?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California's_25th_congressional_district0 -
Its absolute nonsense, blatant means of ensuring someones motives and views can be condemned even if they say they dont mean what the condemner insists they mean. Theres literally no defence the accused can use, and that is the point.FrancisUrquhart said:
Where has this using "thugs" means your a closet racist come from? Boris used it for both violent incidents and twitter were all over how racist it was.Andy_JS said:"Language is a telling clue to unacknowledged racial attitudes
Overt racism is declining, but studies show that unconscious bias remains widespread"
https://www.economist.com/books-and-arts/2020/06/11/language-is-a-telling-clue-to-unacknowledged-racial-attitudes
NPR convinced it what people use instead of the N word, despite Obama using it. It is screams looking for racism where one doesn't exist. I know the origins are from India, but in the UK, I don't think the general public every think that term has been used to describe only those from one particular racial group. Most people will have seen the beer bellied tattoos racists from yesterday and imagine their inner monologue said they look like a bunch of thugs.
https://www.npr.org/2015/04/30/403362626/the-racially-charged-meaning-behind-the-word-thug1 -
He was very good on Marr yesterday.OnlyLivingBoy said:David Lammy very good on R4 just now.
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How did they manage to live years ago I wonder. Cut your cloth accordingly , if you cannot afford it do not have children and farm them out to strangers. Build their life around what they can afford.OnlyLivingBoy said:
I am sure this comment was only meant as a "joke" but it's not a very funny one if you've spent the last three months run ragged trying to work to keep a roof over your kids' head while at the same time trying to make sure they are still getting some semblance of an education and dealing with their emotional problems created by not seeing friends and the uncertainty of when they will go back to school. Many parents have to work to pay their mortgage, food bills etc and have not unreasonably built their working lives and childcare arrangements around an expectation that their kids will be in school between 9 and 3.30 - not to mention after school care arrangements that have also been shut down. Like I say, if a joke not funny, if not a joke just pig ignorant.malcolmg said:
If you cannot look after them then don't have children, what is point of having them and then farming them out to strangers like a pet dog.LostPassword said:The schools plan is absolute bonkers. What about parents who can't "work" from home while their kids are not in school? What about the kids who don't have degree-educated parents who will be supplementing their learning at home?
This sort of nonsense shows that - unless we decide to accept a massive death toll - we cannot live with the virus. We have to do the work to get rid of it so that we can get the schools back as normal.0 -
https://twitter.com/AprilDRyan/status/1272307792343375872kle4 said:
That's delightful.rottenborough said:0 -
More devoted but that is them just thinking about their stomachs.rcs1000 said:
You farm them out to strangers so you can spend more time with your pet dog.malcolmg said:
If you cannot look after them then don't have children, what is point of having them and then farming them out to strangers like a pet dog.LostPassword said:The schools plan is absolute bonkers. What about parents who can't "work" from home while their kids are not in school? What about the kids who don't have degree-educated parents who will be supplementing their learning at home?
This sort of nonsense shows that - unless we decide to accept a massive death toll - we cannot live with the virus. We have to do the work to get rid of it so that we can get the schools back as normal.
Ultimately, a dog will love you more than a child ever will.0 -
I dont think they do want a culture war, theyd be worried about losing it. What they might want is periodic culture border skirmishesScott_xP said:0 -
The coming man?OldKingCole said:
He was very good on Marr yesterday.OnlyLivingBoy said:David Lammy very good on R4 just now.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/12721356509979484160 -
Two phrases I never expected to be writtenOldKingCole said:
He was very good on Marr yesterday.OnlyLivingBoy said:David Lammy very good on R4 just now.
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Well, that's not true as Lammy spoke about it over the weekend to say he didn't want it to come down. And Boris has done the same overnight.Scott_xP said:
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Fair point, it's a good GOTV ad.Philip_Thompson said:
Is it about peeling away Trump supporters or encouraging GOTV and campaigning at this stage?Casino_Royale said:
Geniune question: why?Scott_xP said:
That says Trump is an evil bigot, whilst Biden is a saint.
It might speak to those who already think that way, but what about the undecided?
If I were already a reluctant Trump supporter, how would that peel me away?
It's not an ad designed to target floating voters/ undecided, I think.
You need to be a bit more subtle and say Biden can give you what Trump can't for that.0 -
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STimes was saying yesterday that Cummings has been focus group testing cultural war issues and slogans for months.kle4 said:
I dont think they do want a culture war, theyd be worried about losing it. What they might want is periodic culture border skirmishesScott_xP said:
Looks like they have decided that with the care homes disaster, the high excess deaths and the track and trace no one app, now is the time to start the war.0 -
No chance he is nothing but a windbag.rottenborough said:
The coming man?OldKingCole said:
He was very good on Marr yesterday.OnlyLivingBoy said:David Lammy very good on R4 just now.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/12721356509979484160 -
He is excellent in many ways, but has tweeted of the Conservatives "They want a culture war" and I doubt if it is helpful for centrist politicians of a centrist liberal (small L) mindset to make that allegation about the governing party.OldKingCole said:
He was very good on Marr yesterday.OnlyLivingBoy said:David Lammy very good on R4 just now.
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No, Letwin is out on his own as a disaster area.eek said:
This cabinet includes Patel, Williamson and Raab (someone who didn't understand that Dover was so important that it has a backup dual carriageway).another_richard said:
Anyone of them can give Letwin a run for worst cabinet minister and would easily win.
Now there are some pretty unimpressive people in the cabinet but the reality is politics is filled with some pretty unimpressive people.
And underlying it is that we've created a political system where spouting crap on twatter is more important that proper preparation and attention to detail.
For those lamenting the politicians of yesteryear, the likes of Attlee and Thatcher would never get anywhere in the modern political world.1 -
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Dan Hodges seems to be a very confused and conflicted individual. I wonder how his application to re-rejoin the Labour Party is going?rottenborough said:
The coming man?OldKingCole said:
He was very good on Marr yesterday.OnlyLivingBoy said:David Lammy very good on R4 just now.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/12721356509979484160 -
I think this will be a problem
https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1272219281036640257
In bookstores, they have to quarantine any book that someone touches
That's OK if you are the one that touched it, but if you are the next customer, you can't look at that book for another 3 days.
Why wouldn't you order it from Amazon?0
