politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The night of the crazy EP2014 polling: ComRes has Ukip 11%

FPT

@AveryLP

Lots of bankers doing "porridge" are there ? Care to list a few of the better known ones?
Seems to me, their greed and flaunting of basic laws of decency and even financial reason caused the crash, but everyone else, the immigrants, the poor, the sick, etc, get to carry the blame, and the rest of the poor sods get to bail the bankers sorry arses out.
As a student of history, you will point out that this is always the case, And me as a mere commoner. will point out that it still isn't right.

RodCrosby said:

LibDems still declining in the polls...

Is zero within the MOE of a poll yet?

@AndyJS
Well, "blow me down" Andy, Our legacy media has been a left wing conspiracy all this time? I owe comrade Murdoch and the rest an apology, and a belated Order of Lenin medal.

I don't necessarily agree with these comments, I just think they're notable.

This is all about turnout in a very low turnout election. It is not easy for the pollsters. My guess is that the turnout on the day of the NOTA party will be much lower than they are telling pollsters now but how many have already posted their votes? Don't write off ICM, they did not make themselves the gold standard with bad calls.

AveryLP said:

make me convert to UKIP!

We have a policy against undesirable entryists..

AndyJS said:

Top-rated comment on SeanT's blog post at the moment:

"A_Libertarian_Rebel • 10 hours ago
Whatever your individual view of UKIP or its policies, the legacy media's antics of the past few weeks have at least achieved one thing: they have opened the eyes of millions of people to the utter falsehood of the notion that the UK has anything resembling an independent print or broadcast Press.

Disregard your personal view of UKIP: the revelation that a near-100% of the legacy media have been exposed as willing lackeys of the intolerant-of-dissent, metropolitan-'progressive', left-liberal PC orthodoxy essentially espoused by all three legacy parties and so-called 'opinion-formers', should worry us all."

I find the use of the terms "legacy media" and "legacy party" exceptionally chilling.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

ICM must be an outlier

I hope not. The politics of fear and hate should never be allowed to prosper...

Sunday People front page - "Exclusive - Cabinet Minister raped me on blind date"

Jane, a member of the Labour party, was astonished to see her attacker go from young professional to Conservative MP, and then become part of the top Tory hierarchy.

In the autumn of 2012, she decided to go to police as Britain began a ­dramatic sea-change in its attitude to the way historical and other sex abuse claims are handled.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/cabinet-minister-lured-woman-flat-3558919

The Mirror seem to have connected it with the potential ticking time bomb.

shiney2 said:

AveryLP said:

make me convert to UKIP!

We have a policy against undesirable entryists..

Women should wear trousers?

If you are bored with Helsinki.....You are Finnished!

DavidL said:

This is all about turnout in a very low turnout election. It is not easy for the pollsters. My guess is that the turnout on the day of the NOTA party will be much lower than they are telling pollsters now but how many have already posted their votes? Don't write off ICM, they did not make themselves the gold standard with bad calls.

Yes, agreed. I think the polls which take account of turnout (which presumably are the ones with UKIP far ahead?) will be the ones that match up best with the real results.

The age breakdowns in the Comres poll are quite striking. UKIP are polling 33% among 18 to 24s, 26% among 25 to 34s, 29% among 35 to 44s, 28% among 45 to 54s, 35% among 55 to 64s, and 46% of over 65s. Labour are ahead among 25-34s, by 1% and among 45-54s by 3%. UKIP have 13% (over Labour) and 24% (over Conservative) leads among the 55-64 and 65+ demographics respectively. While caution must be applied before reading too much into sub-samples, it is clear that the older the voter, the more likely they are to vote UKIP.

AveryLP said:

Now some of you here may think I only report the nuts in the UKIP fruitcake.

Not so.

Herewith is the best defence ever of a smear against the kippers. It comes from UKIP's candidate for Hastings Councillor, the much tattooed former porn star, Kevin O'Doherty.

See here for pic of O'D: http://bit.ly/1jpTWwE

In an email to PinkNews he explains the symbolism of the tattoos on his arms which the media have called "Nazi" in character and provenance:

[O'Doherty] explained in detail all tattoos on both of his arms. He said: “The right arm contains images which are centred around the idea of ‘goodness’: there are pictures of the Norse God Thor in his chariot (a symbol of the sun and male fecundity), there is a dove of peace, the word ‘Gentleman’, oak leaves and an English country cottage. There is also a rough representation of Michaelangelo’s Creation of Adam above the word Heaven Sent, with white doves flying between.”

“On my left (sinister) arm there are references to ‘evil’. These are the Stuka, an Eagle which is similar but not identical to a Reichsadler, British planes (not German) surrounding in defence of the Star of David, a foxes head with the words ‘Use Cunning’ and the depiction of a devil type character with a cigar, bottle and a whip, connected to the words ‘Hell Bent’. There is a spider’s web too. The left arm is traditionally the arm of the devil, so all of this is related to symbolism.”

He continued: “Quite how this manages to be turned into a Nazi outrage is something of a mystery to me. I have walked around for 9 years with these tattoos and never received one word of censure. This despite having many Jewish friends and acquaintances who see nothing untoward in this and who don’t regard me as a covert Nazi. Stukas were a death machine and indeed that is why they are at the top of the evil list – as a child they used to terrify me when I was made to watch something to do with the War.

“Also when I was a child, Airfix used to make a kit of a Stuka and I believe that it is still possible to buy such things from a model shop.”

O'Doherty's defence is enough to make me convert to UKIP! If only Nigel could be so artful.

Avery

If you joined UKIP you could then expose yourself for making comments like this:

"If you think Tory backbenchers won't vote for their Government to fire a barrage of missiles at a bunch of rag-heads, you don't understand Tories."

And claim that UKIP attracts loonies, fruitcakes etc ...

Just think of the damage a man like you could do to UKIP from the inside.

another_richard said:

Avery
...
Just think of the damage a man like you could do to UKIP from the inside.

Arf!

This shows without a doubt that though it may be the least bad we can do, polling does not equate to voting. But we knew that didn't we? The Ashcroft initiatives can only be instructive.

Smarmeron said:

If you are bored with Helsinki.....You are Finnished!

My advice. Don't give up the day job.

Comres shades it for me, ICM seems to have consistently underestimated UKIP relative to other pollsters, and even ICM has them only 1% behind the Tories and only 4% behind the Tories. Looks like it is possible UKIP could win and the Greens beat the LDs, in a populist uprising at the 'LibLab Con'.

SeanT May be pleased to know a facebook friend shared his Telegraph UKIP article this evening

ToryJim said:

Hmm YouGov is different again
@BritishSceptic: New YouGov/Sunday Times Euro poll: Lab 27%, UKIP 26%, Con 23%, Lib Dem 9% #EP2014

So YouGov is far, far closer to ICM than ComRes.

All 3 Euro polls have one thing in common:

Lab is either 3% or 4% ahead of Con.

HYUFD said:

Comres shades it for me, ICM seems to have consistently underestimated UKIP relative to other pollsters, and even ICM has them only 1% behind the Tories and only 4% behind the Tories. Looks like it is possible UKIP could win and the Greens beat the LDs, in a populist uprising at the 'LibLab Con'.

SeanT May be pleased to know a facebook friend shared his Telegraph UKIP article this evening

Was it Des O'Connor?

MikeL said:

All 3 Euro polls have one thing in common:

Lab is either 3% or 4% ahead of Con.

I'm still suspicious - not a single poll called how low Labour would go last time - their voters have too much Jeremy Kyle to watch to turn up when they're not stopping Thatcher getting in.

ToryJim said:

Hmm YouGov is different again
@BritishSceptic: New YouGov/Sunday Times Euro poll: Lab 27%, UKIP 26%, Con 23%, Lib Dem 9% #EP2014

Neither ICM nor YouGov apply a turnout filter which is a key determinant of voting intention for something irrelevant like the EU Parliament election. It seems that UKIP voters are highly motivated which is why their ComRes polling is higher. One thing I think they may not have adjusted for is Labour voters lying to themselves about bothering to vote. If an election isn't about keeping the Tories out then they don't ever seem bothered to go and vote.

When in a hole...keep digging....

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2631449/Farage-racism-row-grows-insists-Romanians-ARE-likely-commit-crime.html

Making a like for like comparison with ComRes, Yougov will probably have UKIP c.4% ahead among people who say they're 10/10 likely to vote.

@MaxPB

Even causing a Tory the mere moment of annoyance is more than enough for me.
But you do have a point. A lot of "natural" left leaning voters have come to believe that democracy has become irrelevant to them. No matter the party....they are going to get shafted anyway

Can someone please tell me WHICH is the crazy polling? It would prove most lucrative....

MaxPB said:

ToryJim said:

Hmm YouGov is different again
@BritishSceptic: New YouGov/Sunday Times Euro poll: Lab 27%, UKIP 26%, Con 23%, Lib Dem 9% #EP2014

Neither ICM nor YouGov apply a turnout filter which is a key determinant of voting intention for something irrelevant like the EU Parliament election. It seems that UKIP voters are highly motivated which is why their ComRes polling is higher. One thing I think they may not have adjusted for is Labour voters lying to themselves about bothering to vote. If an election isn't about keeping the Tories out then they don't ever seem bothered to go and vote.

I would tend to agree but the problem I have is that it is suggesting a figure for turnout that seems too high to be plausible for the euro elections which have hovered around 34% every time they've been fought. I suspect there are a lot of people saying they're certain to vote who just won't. We shall see but I would be staggered if turnout rose as significantly as seems to be suggested.

FrancisUrquhart said:

When in a hole...keep digging....

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2631449/Farage-racism-row-grows-insists-Romanians-ARE-likely-commit-crime.html

It is not a hole. It is a path.

He's blazing a trail across a land where a literal truth may not be spoken.

Matthew d'Ancona is starting to get very bitter about UKIP I think...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/10837359/Its-not-the-Euros-but-the-PMs-response-to-them-that-counts.html

Given how close he is to the "inner sanctum" I would assume this means Dave and George are getting quite bitter about it all as well...

AveryLP said:

another_richard said:

Avery

If you joined UKIP you could then expose yourself for making comments like this:

"If you think Tory backbenchers won't vote for their Government to fire a barrage of missiles at a bunch of rag-heads, you don't understand Tories."

And claim that UKIP attracts loonies, fruitcakes etc ...

Just think of the damage a man like you could do to UKIP from the inside.

Good evening, ar.

The comment of mine you quote stands as proof positive of my objective detachment and unmatched forensic analysis when commenting on political parties.

I am just as prepared to grill Tories as I am Kippers.

Your prediction on that occasion turned out to be as inaccurate as some of Cousin Seth's (do you have an update on how that old rascal is doing BTW?).

Although its a bit vague as to whether its you, Tory backbenchers or Tories in general who think of Arabs (or was it Muslims) as 'ragheads'.

Still it was at least a quicker read than the some-bloke-nobody-has-ever-heard-of-has-some-tattoos story you've spent the day discovering.

AndyJS said:

If it's as close as this between the three parties it'll all be down to turnout. For example, a very low turnout in a labour strongholds like Liverpool and Manchester could push them into third place.

If it's about turnout won't Labour be boosted by local elections in good areas for them? I don't know for sure but Manchester is definitely doing council elections on Thursday.

RodCrosby said:

'Others' seem to be climbing...

Same thing happened in 09.

I should've been bolder about predicting it in my piece.

Will there be European election exit polling after the polls close in the UK, or are they banned until polling closes across the EU (presumably Saturday night)?

another_richard said:

AveryLP said:

another_richard said:

Avery

If you joined UKIP you could then expose yourself for making comments like this:

"If you think Tory backbenchers won't vote for their Government to fire a barrage of missiles at a bunch of rag-heads, you don't understand Tories."

And claim that UKIP attracts loonies, fruitcakes etc ...

Just think of the damage a man like you could do to UKIP from the inside.

Good evening, ar.

The comment of mine you quote stands as proof positive of my objective detachment and unmatched forensic analysis when commenting on political parties.

I am just as prepared to grill Tories as I am Kippers.

Your prediction on that occasion turned out to be as inaccurate as some of Cousin Seth's (do you have an update on how that old rascal is doing BTW?).

Although its a bit vague as to whether its you, Tory backbenchers or Tories in general who think of Arabs (or was it Muslims) as 'ragheads'.

Still it was at least a quicker read than the some-bloke-nobody-has-ever-heard-of-has-some-tattoos story you've spent the day discovering.

ar

Cousin Seth is thriving. I had an email postcard from him only last week. With the help of his Chinese wife he has become the leading gang-master of the Lincolnshire fields and now drives through Cleethorpes in a smart new beemer decked with Christmas lights. He bought the car and a villa on the Black Sea coast near Varna all on the proceeds of leaflet distribution contracts with UKIP.

I did explain at the time of my raghead comment that it was a personal joke in honour of a friend who was hauled up before the IPCC for using the term in an article he wrote as a rookie journalist for one of those give-away mags stacked outside subway stations. I won't give further details as it might embarass the BBC given his subsequent meteoric rise through the ranks of political journalism.

And finally, every word of the tattoo defence was a jewel. It could have been many paragraphs longer and still worth reading.

Interesting piece in the guardian on prospects for the next election.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/17/tory-general-election-victory-ukip

AveryLP said:

The Sunday Mirror has a go at UKIP.

Here is a flavour of the fruitcakes on offer:

We also discovered the anti-semitic postings of Joseph Quirk, UKIP candidate for Boldon Colliery Ward on South Tyneside Council.

He shares material claiming Jewish bankers financed Hitler, Soviet Communism, 9/11 and Israel, and says: “This doesn’t even scratch the surface...”

Quirk warns UKIP’s critics: “Watch this space any of you brain deficient doubters out there. I would personally cull the lot of you. You are an absolute disgrace to democracy AND the human race!!!”

Full article here: http://bit.ly/1gTuWbx

Comrade Chancellor! You are quoting a Commie rag like the Mirror ???

AveryLP said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

AveryLP said:

The Sunday Mirror has a go at UKIP.

Here is a flavour of the fruitcakes on offer:

We also discovered the anti-semitic postings of Joseph Quirk, UKIP candidate for Boldon Colliery Ward on South Tyneside Council.

He shares material claiming Jewish bankers financed Hitler, Soviet Communism, 9/11 and Israel, and says: “This doesn’t even scratch the surface...”

Quirk warns UKIP’s critics: “Watch this space any of you brain deficient doubters out there. I would personally cull the lot of you. You are an absolute disgrace to democracy AND the human race!!!”

Full article here: http://bit.ly/1gTuWbx

Comrade Chancellor! You are quoting a Commie rag like the Mirror ???

Do not worry, Comrade Sunilsky.

The Mirror Group is a wholly owned subsidiary of Komsomolskaya Pravda. I am only promoting our own investments.

But isn't being a Tory incompatible with being a Europhile?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

AveryLP said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

AveryLP said:

The Sunday Mirror has a go at UKIP.

Here is a flavour of the fruitcakes on offer:

We also discovered the anti-semitic postings of Joseph Quirk, UKIP candidate for Boldon Colliery Ward on South Tyneside Council.

He shares material claiming Jewish bankers financed Hitler, Soviet Communism, 9/11 and Israel, and says: “This doesn’t even scratch the surface...”

Quirk warns UKIP’s critics: “Watch this space any of you brain deficient doubters out there. I would personally cull the lot of you. You are an absolute disgrace to democracy AND the human race!!!”

Full article here: http://bit.ly/1gTuWbx

Comrade Chancellor! You are quoting a Commie rag like the Mirror ???

Do not worry, Comrade Sunilsky.

The Mirror Group is a wholly owned subsidiary of Komsomolskaya Pravda. I am only promoting our own investments.

But isn't being a Tory incompatible with being a Europhile?

Nope, these days it is positively vital. You won't get anywhere in the Tory party without being a Europhile.

ToryJim said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

AveryLP said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

AveryLP said:

The Sunday Mirror has a go at UKIP.

Here is a flavour of the fruitcakes on offer:

We also discovered the anti-semitic postings of Joseph Quirk, UKIP candidate for Boldon Colliery Ward on South Tyneside Council.

He shares material claiming Jewish bankers financed Hitler, Soviet Communism, 9/11 and Israel, and says: “This doesn’t even scratch the surface...”

Quirk warns UKIP’s critics: “Watch this space any of you brain deficient doubters out there. I would personally cull the lot of you. You are an absolute disgrace to democracy AND the human race!!!”

Full article here: http://bit.ly/1gTuWbx

Comrade Chancellor! You are quoting a Commie rag like the Mirror ???

Do not worry, Comrade Sunilsky.

The Mirror Group is a wholly owned subsidiary of Komsomolskaya Pravda. I am only promoting our own investments.

But isn't being a Tory incompatible with being a Europhile?

Nope, these days it is positively vital. You won't get anywhere in the Tory party without being a a Europhile.

Oh please.

Not sure what you are objecting to. Avery has already made it clear that the Tory party and its supporters believe that the facts don't matter, only the politics and it is acceptable to lie and smear ones opponents for political ends. I am simply taking him at his word.

Besides, as far as Cameron's inner circle and their sad coterie of sycophants and supporters are concerned it is true. Being a Eurosceptic makes you persona non grata and tantamount to being a member of the National Front. .