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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The night of the crazy EP2014 polling: ComRes has Ukip 11%
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The night of the crazy EP2014 polling: ComRes has Ukip 11% ahead – ICM puts them third
A lot of this comes down to how the two firms handle turnout. ComRes online only includes those saying they are 100% certain to vote even if they didn’t turnout at the last general election.
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Labour winning in London is the only bet I'm super confident about with the Euros tbh. Though UKIP are probably ahead nationally.,,,
I have felt all along that the imminence of the Euro poll is distorting all of the current polling but I'm surprised to see such big variations betweent diffenrent companies and between Telephone v On-line. Very difficult to know the pblic mood right now although I suspect UKIP will do well next week as the voters give a collective FU to the mainstream parties. It's a little odd that the hostility to Clegg and the LDs is so pronounced but I think this may worsen as we move to the real GE next year. They have no strategy for the transition from protest party to party of government and it shows badly. The failure of Labour to learn the lessons of why they lost and the inability of the Miliband leadership to move beyond thier north London luvvie comfort zone could be key in giving the Tories a shout next year ,especially if the ecnomic improvement continues.
Oh my, Mike. ICM, the once golden boy of pollsters, is up the creek without a paddle: either that or it's got too many paddles, all paddling like mad in different directions.
@AveryLP
Lots of bankers doing "porridge" are there ? Care to list a few of the better known ones?
Seems to me, their greed and flaunting of basic laws of decency and even financial reason caused the crash, but everyone else, the immigrants, the poor, the sick, etc, get to carry the blame, and the rest of the poor sods get to bail the bankers sorry arses out.
As a student of history, you will point out that this is always the case, And me as a mere commoner. will point out that it still isn't right.
"A_Libertarian_Rebel • 10 hours ago
Whatever your individual view of UKIP or its policies, the legacy media's antics of the past few weeks have at least achieved one thing: they have opened the eyes of millions of people to the utter falsehood of the notion that the UK has anything resembling an independent print or broadcast Press.
Disregard your personal view of UKIP: the revelation that a near-100% of the legacy media have been exposed as willing lackeys of the intolerant-of-dissent, metropolitan-'progressive', left-liberal PC orthodoxy essentially espoused by all three legacy parties and so-called 'opinion-formers', should worry us all."
Well, "blow me down" Andy, Our legacy media has been a left wing conspiracy all this time? I owe comrade Murdoch and the rest an apology, and a belated Order of Lenin medal.
Culture minister Sajid Javid, the first Asian Secretary of State, says those coming to the UK must learn English and "respect our way of life""
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/10838710/Immigrants-must-learn-to-be-British-says-Asian-Tory.html
Not so.
Herewith is the best defence ever of a smear against the kippers. It comes from UKIP's candidate for Hastings Councillor, the much tattooed former porn star, Kevin O'Doherty.
See here for pic of O'D: http://bit.ly/1jpTWwE
In an email to PinkNews he explains the symbolism of the tattoos on his arms which the media have called "Nazi" in character and provenance:
[O'Doherty] explained in detail all tattoos on both of his arms. He said: “The right arm contains images which are centred around the idea of ‘goodness’: there are pictures of the Norse God Thor in his chariot (a symbol of the sun and male fecundity), there is a dove of peace, the word ‘Gentleman’, oak leaves and an English country cottage. There is also a rough representation of Michaelangelo’s Creation of Adam above the word Heaven Sent, with white doves flying between.”
“On my left (sinister) arm there are references to ‘evil’. These are the Stuka, an Eagle which is similar but not identical to a Reichsadler, British planes (not German) surrounding in defence of the Star of David, a foxes head with the words ‘Use Cunning’ and the depiction of a devil type character with a cigar, bottle and a whip, connected to the words ‘Hell Bent’. There is a spider’s web too. The left arm is traditionally the arm of the devil, so all of this is related to symbolism.”
He continued: “Quite how this manages to be turned into a Nazi outrage is something of a mystery to me. I have walked around for 9 years with these tattoos and never received one word of censure. This despite having many Jewish friends and acquaintances who see nothing untoward in this and who don’t regard me as a covert Nazi. Stukas were a death machine and indeed that is why they are at the top of the evil list – as a child they used to terrify me when I was made to watch something to do with the War.
“Also when I was a child, Airfix used to make a kit of a Stuka and I believe that it is still possible to buy such things from a model shop.”
O'Doherty's defence is enough to make me convert to UKIP! If only Nigel could be so artful.
How do you know? It's not possible to come to that view. Wait till next Sunday evening.
This then lends support to the anecdotal evidence that UKIP's ranks are swelled by the dispossessed, who will march to the polling booth for the first time in years to give the 'Liberal Establishment' the fright of their lives. But weren't these the same people who rallied behind that great revolutionary Nick Clegg during the TV debates of 2010? The problem is, when the Deliverance Day came, they never showed.
'First to say, UKIP = BNP lite.'
First for the most idiotic comment of the day.
I'll have 25 quid with you that ICM are closer to the UKIP fig at the EU election next week than Comres...
R u on?
Jane, a member of the Labour party, was astonished to see her attacker go from young professional to Conservative MP, and then become part of the top Tory hierarchy.
In the autumn of 2012, she decided to go to police as Britain began a dramatic sea-change in its attitude to the way historical and other sex abuse claims are handled.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/cabinet-minister-lured-woman-flat-3558919
The Mirror seem to have connected it with the potential ticking time bomb.
Is that a quote from Stephen Byers?
Are you bored with Helsinki already?
http://www.exaronews.com/articles/5251/ex-cabinet-minister-raped-me-when-i-was-19-woman-tells-met
"A former Conservative cabinet minister... the alleged victim says in 1967 the ex-minister, before he became an MP, tricked her into his flat, locked her in and then raped her. She was a 19-year-old student at the time."
The Sunday People article refers to a claimed "murky establishment cover up".
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/tory-cabinet-minister-accused-rape-3558978
I wonder if the BBC will censor this "on legal grounds" like they did with PIE story for several days?
Just Legacy Media I expect..
If you joined UKIP you could then expose yourself for making comments like this:
"If you think Tory backbenchers won't vote for their Government to fire a barrage of missiles at a bunch of rag-heads, you don't understand Tories."
And claim that UKIP attracts loonies, fruitcakes etc ...
Just think of the damage a man like you could do to UKIP from the inside.
Did you see my video from earlier today? Some nifty Euro election posters near the main train station:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=75llyI2YcHM
26% among 25 to 34s
29% among 35 to 44s
28% among 45 to 54s
35% among 55 to 64s
46% of 65+s
isn't that young and old with a dip in the middle?
Arf!
Everyone's a critic!
*sulks*
SeanT May be pleased to know a facebook friend shared his Telegraph UKIP article this evening
The comment of mine you quote stands as proof positive of my objective detachment and unmatched forensic analysis when commenting on political parties.
I am just as prepared to grill Tories as I am Kippers.
@BritishSceptic: New YouGov/Sunday Times Euro poll: Lab 27%, UKIP 26%, Con 23%, Lib Dem 9% #EP2014
Lab is either 3% or 4% ahead of Con.
Written English is crying out for a suitable "irony" punctuation symbol.
Lab 23 (+10)
UKIP 22 (+9)
Con 17 (-9)
LDs 3 (-8)
Green* 2 (nc)
SNP 2 (nc)
Plaid 1(nc)
*estimate, no Green figure given
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2631449/Farage-racism-row-grows-insists-Romanians-ARE-likely-commit-crime.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2009_(United_Kingdom)
Even causing a Tory the mere moment of annoyance is more than enough for me.
But you do have a point. A lot of "natural" left leaning voters have come to believe that democracy has become irrelevant to them. No matter the party....they are going to get shafted anyway
The mug shots on the election posters remind me of my first reaction to being visiting Finland. The physiognomy of the Finnish race is very different from that of most western European countries. You see their Uralic origins very clearly.
He's blazing a trail across a land where a literal truth may not be spoken.
The polling companies results have been inadvertently routed through an infinite improbability drive.
Normal service will be resumed once they work out what the hell "normal" is.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/10837359/Its-not-the-Euros-but-the-PMs-response-to-them-that-counts.html
Given how close he is to the "inner sanctum" I would assume this means Dave and George are getting quite bitter about it all as well...
Although its a bit vague as to whether its you, Tory backbenchers or Tories in general who think of Arabs (or was it Muslims) as 'ragheads'.
Still it was at least a quicker read than the some-bloke-nobody-has-ever-heard-of-has-some-tattoos story you've spent the day discovering.
I should've been bolder about predicting it in my piece.
"Rich double their wealth in five years"
//twitter.com/suttonnick/status/467766867143446528/photo/1
Cousin Seth is thriving. I had an email postcard from him only last week. With the help of his Chinese wife he has become the leading gang-master of the Lincolnshire fields and now drives through Cleethorpes in a smart new beemer decked with Christmas lights. He bought the car and a villa on the Black Sea coast near Varna all on the proceeds of leaflet distribution contracts with UKIP.
I did explain at the time of my raghead comment that it was a personal joke in honour of a friend who was hauled up before the IPCC for using the term in an article he wrote as a rookie journalist for one of those give-away mags stacked outside subway stations. I won't give further details as it might embarass the BBC given his subsequent meteoric rise through the ranks of political journalism.
And finally, every word of the tattoo defence was a jewel. It could have been many paragraphs longer and still worth reading.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/17/tory-general-election-victory-ukip
Here is a flavour of the fruitcakes on offer:
We also discovered the anti-semitic postings of Joseph Quirk, UKIP candidate for Boldon Colliery Ward on South Tyneside Council.
He shares material claiming Jewish bankers financed Hitler, Soviet Communism, 9/11 and Israel, and says: “This doesn’t even scratch the surface...”
Quirk warns UKIP’s critics: “Watch this space any of you brain deficient doubters out there. I would personally cull the lot of you. You are an absolute disgrace to democracy AND the human race!!!”
Full article here: http://bit.ly/1gTuWbx
The Mirror Group is a wholly owned subsidiary of Komsomolskaya Pravda. I am only promoting our own investments.
Besides, as far as Cameron's inner circle and their sad coterie of sycophants and supporters are concerned it is true. Being a Eurosceptic makes you persona non grata and tantamount to being a member of the National Front. .