politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » EdM might just be susceptible to a decapitation strategy in
Comments
-
team Scotland up nice and early for double fa cup day I see. Enjoy your Saturday everyone!
0 -
According to the 2011 census around 3% of Doncaster's population was accounted for by "Other White". The White population as a whole made up over 90% of Doncaster's population. Around 95% of the White population classed itself as White British:another_richard said:
A trip to any Doncaster supermarket would reveal that its received a great deal of Eastern European immigration recently.SouthamObserver said:This goes back to a debate I had with isam on here earlier in the week. According to the 2011 census, Doncaster has seen very little immigration. It remains pretty much what it always has been: white, British and working class. Given that, what's UKIP's pitch?
Its the type of place which has previously only had tiny numbers of immigrants - and then often as Asian medical professionals and ethnic restauranters - but has had tens of thousands during the last decade.
These Eastern European immigrants are in themselves admirable - hard working and law abiding - but when its your employment prospects, pay rises, housing costs and public services being affected then it raises strong feelings among the local people.
This experience is being repeated in old industrial areas around the country and is why Labour has been losing working class votes for a decade.
http://www.doncastertogether.org.uk/Images/Ethnicity and National Identity in England and Wales - Final_tcm33-102184.pdf
0 -
One of the most perceptive articles I have read in years. If most of the shadow cabinet and cabinet were honest with themselves they would be members of the Liberal party. The three large parties are all now shades of yellow, perhaps partly a result of the Liberal collapse in the 20s causing ambitious liberals to join Tories or Labour over the years (the tories of course have Iron columns of yellow, they are a triple coalition of the Conservative and [Liberal] Unionist Party and the National Liberal Party). This has meant that they share consensus on various liberal principles and opposing views were disenfranchised.isam said:Ukip has divided the left, not the right, and cut Labour off from its 'old' support
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/16/ukip-divided-left-right-cut-labour-support
Now a conservative party has re emerged as a serious electoral force this consensus is being exploded. It is no surprise that it is leaning to the left on some economic issues. A true conservative party seeks to conserve, to protect, Thatcherism and Free Market extremism is out and out liberal, just as the social reforms of the 1960s were out and out liberal.
So, now we see a socially conservative and economically conservative party emerging, freed of the baggage of attachment to the aristocracy it is a real threat to the old order because the working classes can vote for it. A threat is emerging and the smear operations against UKIP are in futile overdrive. You are either for or against them, with little compromise, in a way that politics has not been since the 1970s or 1980s.
In the long term I would not be surprised if UKIP and the Liberals were the two dominant parties, as they represent clear ideological positions.
It is a great irony that the 20th century, a time of the triumph of Liberalism in UK politics and governance, coincided with the Liberal Partys lowest ebb.
0 -
Don't the Tory rules stipulate that the leader has to be an MP? If I'm not mistaken some muppet (his ridiculous father) recently suggested they be changed for the sole purpose of effecting the outcome you mention...Charles said:
Is there any rule in the UK that the PM needs to be in Parliament?RodCrosby said:Mackenzie King lost his seat in Canada in 1925. He was the sitting PM, and carried on in office, watching his government win a confidence vote from the gallery of the Canadian House of Commons...
Obviously for about the last 50 years there has been a convention that the PM sits in the Commons not the Lords, but is there actually a reason why - say - BoJo couldn't serve as PM (assuming he could command a majority in the house of commons) without actually being an MP?
Just askin'
*innocent face*0 -
And another thing,
I always thought Maggie and Tony had a lot in common. They had a vision for the country but they tackled different perceived problems. Maggie saw the unions, and particularly the miners, as the enemy. There was an economic case to confront them and she used it. But she left the mining communities to their own devices. A price worth paying - they're only miners.
Tony saw diversity as the way to produce a country "at ease with itself" and if immigration increased GDP and prosperity - let's go for it. Even if some communities had to "suck it up". A price worth paying - they're only bigots.
You can't make an omelette without .....0 -
What evidence is there that UKIP - as opposed to its supporters - leans to the left on anything? In the short term that doesn't matter as currently the political conversation is all about immigration. Next year, when other areas come to the fore, it may well be different. Then UKIP views on the NHS, state pension provision, flat taxes and public spending generally may be more under the spotlight.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
One of the most perceptive articles I have read in years. If most of the shadow cabinet and cabinet were honest with themselves they would be members of the Liberal party. The three large parties are all now shades of yellow, perhaps partly a result of the Liberal collapse in the 20s causing ambitions liberals to join Tories or Labour. This has meant that they share consensus on various liberal principles and opposing views were disenfranchised.isam said:Ukip has divided the left, not the right, and cut Labour off from its 'old' support
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/16/ukip-divided-left-right-cut-labour-support
Now a conservative party has re emerged as a serious electoral force this consensus is being exploded. It is no surprise that it is leaning to the left on some economic issues. A true conservative party seeks to conserve, to protect, Thatcherism and Free Market extremism is out and out liberal, just as the social reforms of the 1960s were out and out liberal.
So, now we see a socially conservative and economically conservative party emerging, freed of the baggage of attachment to the aristocracy it is a real threat to the old order because the working classes can vote for it. A threat is emerging and the smear operations against UKIP are in futile overdrive. You are either for or against them, with little compromise, in a way that politics has not been since the 1970s or 1980s.
In the long term I would not be surprised if UKIP and the Liberals were the two dominant parties, as they represent clear ideological positions.
0 -
Only thing is that 2011, as recent as it sounds, is rapidly receding into the distance. Some areas that had small immigrant populations in 2011 may have much larger ones in 2014.SouthamObserver said:
According to the 2011 census around 3% of Doncaster's population was accounted for by "Other White". The White population as a whole made up over 90% of Doncaster's population. Around 95% of the White population classed itself as White British:another_richard said:
A trip to any Doncaster supermarket would reveal that its received a great deal of Eastern European immigration recently.SouthamObserver said:This goes back to a debate I had with isam on here earlier in the week. According to the 2011 census, Doncaster has seen very little immigration. It remains pretty much what it always has been: white, British and working class. Given that, what's UKIP's pitch?
Its the type of place which has previously only had tiny numbers of immigrants - and then often as Asian medical professionals and ethnic restauranters - but has had tens of thousands during the last decade.
These Eastern European immigrants are in themselves admirable - hard working and law abiding - but when its your employment prospects, pay rises, housing costs and public services being affected then it raises strong feelings among the local people.
This experience is being repeated in old industrial areas around the country and is why Labour has been losing working class votes for a decade.
http://www.doncastertogether.org.uk/Images/Ethnicity and National Identity in England and Wales - Final_tcm33-102184.pdf0 -
You're quite right but the joke was too good to miss (and Foot's dog was named after the 19th century Tory PM too).Carnyx said:
I have a feeling the wee dug was called Dizzy, more precisely - but in any case a kind person has already identified the specific Disraeli in question.david_herdson said:
Wasn't it Michael Foot's dog?Carnyx said:
Is that a real tweet by Mr Miliband? Surely Disraeli was a Tory??kjohnw said:Just read this tweet from the intellectually confident Mr Miliband
Ed Miliband MP: To help realise Disraeli’s One Nation vision, you should vote Labour next week
I doubt the average Joe Public even has a clue what he's rattling on about, talking about Disraeli's One nation vision. I think Ed has massive delusions of grandeur, and is so far stuck up his own **** that common sense and reality have slipped him by.
Surely the British people wont vote for this twerp0 -
I suppose it is possible that under the Coalition immigration into Doncaster has exploded. And I guess that perception is what counts, more than anything else. But I'd be surprised if tens of thousands of immigrants had arrived there in the last three years.AndyJS said:
Only thing is that 2011, as recent as it sounds, is rapidly receding into the distance. Some areas that had small immigrant populations in 2011 may have much larger ones in 2014.SouthamObserver said:
According to the 2011 census around 3% of Doncaster's population was accounted for by "Other White". The White population as a whole made up over 90% of Doncaster's population. Around 95% of the White population classed itself as White British:another_richard said:
A trip to any Doncaster supermarket would reveal that its received a great deal of Eastern European immigration recently.SouthamObserver said:This goes back to a debate I had with isam on here earlier in the week. According to the 2011 census, Doncaster has seen very little immigration. It remains pretty much what it always has been: white, British and working class. Given that, what's UKIP's pitch?
Its the type of place which has previously only had tiny numbers of immigrants - and then often as Asian medical professionals and ethnic restauranters - but has had tens of thousands during the last decade.
These Eastern European immigrants are in themselves admirable - hard working and law abiding - but when its your employment prospects, pay rises, housing costs and public services being affected then it raises strong feelings among the local people.
This experience is being repeated in old industrial areas around the country and is why Labour has been losing working class votes for a decade.
http://www.doncastertogether.org.uk/Images/Ethnicity and National Identity in England and Wales - Final_tcm33-102184.pdf
0 -
I agree. 2 Lib Dem MEPs seems a very plausible outcome to me - I'm amazed more hasn't been staked on it.shadsy said:A round up of how the market on Lib Dem Euro seats has gone so far. Plus a tip:
http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/0 -
Sorry folks but this thread is nonsense , most unusual for one written by David Herdson .
The 2012 local election results in the 7 wards making up Doncaster North parliamentary seat were
Lab 13,524
Con 4,336
LDem 1,369
UKIP 0
Various others 2,358
There is a plethora of minor party candidates this year offset by the Conservatives having virtually given up . They are only contesting 2 wards one fewer than the Lib Dems . The only question is whether the Conservatives will hold on to the 1 ward they hold Sprotbrough which they managed by just 72 votes in 2012 or UKIP intervention will lose them the seat . Their sitting councillor is not defending her seat .0 -
Indeed. The UKIP leadership's inspiration and political heroine saw large parts of the white working class as the enemy within - especially in towns like Doncaster.CD13 said:And another thing,
I always thought Maggie and Tony had a lot in common. They had a vision for the country but they tackled different perceived problems. Maggie saw the unions, and particularly the miners, as the enemy. There was an economic case to confront them and she used it. But she left the mining communities to their own devices. A price worth paying - they're only miners.
Tony saw diversity as the way to produce a country "at ease with itself" and if immigration increased GDP and prosperity - let's go for it. Even if some communities had to "suck it up". A price worth paying - they're only bigots.
You can't make an omelette without .....
0 -
Thanks for letting me know about International whisky day Malcolm. Bad form to have it on double fa cup day though I feel - I'd let you know my malt of choice but I fear these things are becoming swear words.0
-
As well as the possibility mentioned of post 2011 immigration, the documents that we sent each other on here regarding the Doncaster census showed a slightly higher rate of white non British immigration to Doncaster (2.1% against 1.8%) when compared to the national averageSouthamObserver said:
I suppose it is possible that under the Coalition immigration into Doncaster has exploded. And I guess that perception is what counts, more than anything else. But I'd be surprised if tens of thousands of immigrants had arrived there in the last three years.AndyJS said:
Only thing is that 2011, as recent as it sounds, is rapidly receding into the distance. Some areas that had small immigrant populations in 2011 may have much larger ones in 2014.SouthamObserver said:
According to the 2011 census around 3% of Doncaster's population was accounted for by "Other White". The White population as a whole made up over 90% of Doncaster's population. Around 95% of the White population classed itself as White British:another_richard said:
A trip to any Doncaster supermarket would reveal that its received a great deal of Eastern European immigration recently.SouthamObserver said:This goes back to a debate I had with isam on here earlier in the week. According to the 2011 census, Doncaster has seen very little immigration. It remains pretty much what it always has been: white, British and working class. Given that, what's UKIP's pitch?
Its the type of place which has previously only had tiny numbers of immigrants - and then often as Asian medical professionals and ethnic restauranters - but has had tens of thousands during the last decade.
These Eastern European immigrants are in themselves admirable - hard working and law abiding - but when its your employment prospects, pay rises, housing costs and public services being affected then it raises strong feelings among the local people.
This experience is being repeated in old industrial areas around the country and is why Labour has been losing working class votes for a decade.
http://www.doncastertogether.org.uk/Images/Ethnicity and National Identity in England and Wales - Final_tcm33-102184.pdf
I would think that most of the A8 immigration went to London, where it isnt as easily noticed, and across most Northern towns there were almost no effect. So even though it is only 2.1%, in a place where there were previously very few immigrants, that wil be very noticable0 -
The Earl of Home became PM on 19th October 1963. He disclaimed his peerages on 23rd October and became Sir Alec Douglas-Home KT.JBriskin said:Thanks for clarifying Rod - although unlikely it would be exciting wouldn't it. Douglas-Home was the last non-MP although he was in the lords I think - yes, I do like my quiz shows.
Until his election at the Kinross by election 22 days later he was PM without being a member of either the Lords or Commons.
0 -
I don't now think it's likely the LDs will be wiped out in the Euros. In fact they're doing slightly better in the polls than might have been expected. 9% isn't all that bad compared to 13.7% last time.0
-
Actually it was me that suggested the rule should be changed but yes, the party constitution does state that the leader shall be "drawn from those elected to Parliament". A creative interpretation could read this as "should be an MP at the time of the leadership election", but the clear inference is that losing your seat forfeits their leadership.RodCrosby said:
Don't the Tory rules stipulate that the leader has to be an MP? If I'm not mistaken some muppet (his ridiculous father) recently suggested they be changed for the sole purpose of effecting the outcome you mention...Charles said:
Is there any rule in the UK that the PM needs to be in Parliament?RodCrosby said:Mackenzie King lost his seat in Canada in 1925. He was the sitting PM, and carried on in office, watching his government win a confidence vote from the gallery of the Canadian House of Commons...
Obviously for about the last 50 years there has been a convention that the PM sits in the Commons not the Lords, but is there actually a reason why - say - BoJo couldn't serve as PM (assuming he could command a majority in the house of commons) without actually being an MP?
Just askin'
*innocent face*
To be fair, the suggestion wasn't just about Boris, though he'd be the biggest current beneficiary of such a rule change. The party's rules are out of date and don't take account of the changed UK constitution. It's common in federal countries like Germany, Canada or India for a federal PM / Chancellor candidate to have previously been head of a regional government. Similarly, a potential UK party leader could now emerge from one of Britain's devolved assemblies or an elected mayor of a big city, and to my mind, the Party's rules need to take that possibility into account. It's not that big a change: they'd still need the support of MPs to make it through the first phase.0 -
The LDs are walking on the razor's edge, as far as the Euro's go. Their best hope is fragmentation on polling day, with the big three all under-performing their poll ratings owing to voters flirting with the plethora of micro-parties. That will significantly improve their chances of holding some seats.david_herdson said:
I agree. 2 Lib Dem MEPs seems a very plausible outcome to me - I'm amazed more hasn't been staked on it.shadsy said:A round up of how the market on Lib Dem Euro seats has gone so far. Plus a tip:
http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/
My guess is three MEPs, but at the moment it's impossible to say. I wouldn't be surprised by zero, and I wouldn't be surprised by 5...
0 -
Odd days back then that a Scottish Conservative could lose 11% of the vote share and still take nearly 60% of the vote.JackW said:
The Earl of Home became PM on 19th October 1963. He disclaimed his peerages on 23rd October and became Sir Alec Douglas-Home KT.JBriskin said:Thanks for clarifying Rod - although unlikely it would be exciting wouldn't it. Douglas-Home was the last non-MP although he was in the lords I think - yes, I do like my quiz shows.
Until his election at the Kinross by election 22 days later he was PM without being a member of either the Lords or Commons.
0 -
Cheers for your reply, Mark. Let's see how UKIP gets on next week, which'll be a better pointer than 2012's elections when, as you note, they didn't stand. As I've said, any chance of Miliband losing also depends on UKIP finding the right candidate (so local elections are only a pointer). Without the right one, Miliband is safe - but there is potentially the right one.MarkSenior said:Sorry folks but this thread is nonsense , most unusual for one written by David Herdson.
The 2012 local election results in the 7 wards making up Doncaster North parliamentary seat were
Lab 13,524
Con 4,336
LDem 1,369
UKIP 0
Various others 2,358
There is a plethora of minor party candidates this year offset by the Conservatives having virtually given up . They are only contesting 2 wards one fewer than the Lib Dems . The only question is whether the Conservatives will hold on to the 1 ward they hold Sprotbrough which they managed by just 72 votes in 2012 or UKIP intervention will lose them the seat . Their sitting councillor is not defending her seat .
As Mike mentioned the other day, I once rubbished his suggestion that Galloway could win Bradford West because I thought the Labour (and big party) culture was too embedded. I was wrong. In Doncaster, they've already shown themselves willing to throw off the big party culture. I'm not saying it will happen or is even likely to. I am saying it could.0 -
Good morning, everyone.
I would be greatly surprised and even more amused if Miliband lost his seat.0 -
International Whisky day? I didn't know that. Thanks for letting us know, Mr. G. As this might be the last such occasion when Scotland is wholly part of the UK, as opposed to being on the exit ramp, I shall resist all temptations to drink international whiskies or even any whiskey. Instead I shall remain content with single Scottish Malts. Well actually I'll probably just stick with the Laphroaig, but maybe I'll find something more adventurous when I go to the shops.malcolmg said:
Mr Briskin it is International whisky day , be sure to have at least one today. I may even treat myself and have a nip out of my 1955 Glen Grant.JBriskin said:team Scotland up nice and early for double fa cup day I see. Enjoy your Saturday everyone!
0 -
Mass immigration of cheap labour hurts the working class more than almost any other policy. UKIP are the only party that are even suggsting putting an end to it, and thats why I think they are attracting working class supportSouthamObserver said:
What evidence is there that UKIP - as opposed to its supporters - leans to the left on anything? In the short term that doesn't matter as currently the political conversation is all about immigration. Next year, when other areas come to the fore, it may well be different. Then UKIP views on the NHS, state pension provision, flat taxes and public spending generally may be more under the spotlight.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
One of the most perceptive articles I have read in years. If most of the shadow cabinet and cabinet were honest with themselves they would be members of the Liberal party. The three large parties are all now shades of yellow, perhaps partly a result of the Liberal collapse in the 20s causing ambitions liberals to join Tories or Labour. This has meant that they share consensus on various liberal principles and opposing views were disenfranchised.isam said:Ukip has divided the left, not the right, and cut Labour off from its 'old' support
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/16/ukip-divided-left-right-cut-labour-support
Now a conservative party has re emerged as a serious electoral force this consensus is being exploded. It is no surprise that it is leaning to the left on some economic issues. A true conservative party seeks to conserve, to protect, Thatcherism and Free Market extremism is out and out liberal, just as the social reforms of the 1960s were out and out liberal.
So, now we see a socially conservative and economically conservative party emerging, freed of the baggage of attachment to the aristocracy it is a real threat to the old order because the working classes can vote for it. A threat is emerging and the smear operations against UKIP are in futile overdrive. You are either for or against them, with little compromise, in a way that politics has not been since the 1970s or 1980s.
In the long term I would not be surprised if UKIP and the Liberals were the two dominant parties, as they represent clear ideological positions.
UKIP wont offer a flat tax at the next GE. My guess is they will raise the level at which the 40p rate is paid by a few grand, and take minimum wage out tax completely.
The guy in charge of overseeing/costing it is Steven Woolfe. A mixed race northerner who has worked in the city. I think it wiull be done by Sep0 -
Hurst enjoy , was sloppy posting as I believe it is World Whisky Day , but any excuse to enjoy a nice dram.HurstLlama said:
International Whisky day? I didn't know that. Thanks for letting us know, Mr. G. As this might be the last such occasion when Scotland is wholly part of the UK, as opposed to being on the exit ramp, I shall resist all temptations to drink international whiskies or even any whiskey. Instead I shall remain content with single Scottish Malts. Well actually I'll probably just stick with the Laphroaig, but maybe I'll find something more adventurous when I go to the shops.malcolmg said:
Mr Briskin it is International whisky day , be sure to have at least one today. I may even treat myself and have a nip out of my 1955 Glen Grant.JBriskin said:team Scotland up nice and early for double fa cup day I see. Enjoy your Saturday everyone!
I must dash and get things done so I can sit down later and enjoy the Cup Final.0 -
Don't panic Hurst - You'll always be able to go for Jonnie Walker 0
-
So Dave has extended an invitation for a state visit to Narendra Modi. Very smart politics and great news for businesses looking to invest in India or get investment from Indian multinationals. Puts Labour in a real bind. Do they meet him as will be expected and risk protests and George Galloway all over the media decrying Labour for meeting someone who is seen to be involved in anti-Muslim violence (though no evidence was ever found to show that and Labour over reacted hugely in 2002 by cutting ties), or do they snub him and get a beat down from the business community for playing politics with the economy. Sticky wicket for Ed Miliband. For DC meeting Modi will help shore up votes in Harrow, Leicester, Wembley and possibly Southall. They don't have much chance of winning in Bradford, Whitechapel and other areas with a high proportion of Muslims anyway so meeting with someone like Modi won't make any difference.
0 -
Do you really think that all economic migrants living in multiple occupied rented terraced houses fill in a census form ???SouthamObserver said:
According to the 2011 census around 3% of Doncaster's population was accounted for by "Other White". The White population as a whole made up over 90% of Doncaster's population. Around 95% of the White population classed itself as White British:another_richard said:
A trip to any Doncaster supermarket would reveal that its received a great deal of Eastern European immigration recently.SouthamObserver said:This goes back to a debate I had with isam on here earlier in the week. According to the 2011 census, Doncaster has seen very little immigration. It remains pretty much what it always has been: white, British and working class. Given that, what's UKIP's pitch?
Its the type of place which has previously only had tiny numbers of immigrants - and then often as Asian medical professionals and ethnic restauranters - but has had tens of thousands during the last decade.
These Eastern European immigrants are in themselves admirable - hard working and law abiding - but when its your employment prospects, pay rises, housing costs and public services being affected then it raises strong feelings among the local people.
This experience is being repeated in old industrial areas around the country and is why Labour has been losing working class votes for a decade.
http://www.doncastertogether.org.uk/Images/Ethnicity and National Identity in England and Wales - Final_tcm33-102184.pdf
I'd be especially sceptical after the ONS recently admitted that it had underestimated the number of immigrants from Eastern Europe by 350,000 becase it didn't bother counting those arriving at regional airports. Regional airports such as the one in Doncaster for example.
Though to be fair almost all Eastern European migrants to Doncaster would be concentrated in the inner urban districts which is why the foreign voices in the supermarket or number of ethnic shops tests suggest a higher number of immigrants than there is likely to be overall.
Such things as Doncaster's Polish music festival do add to the impression of large scale immigration:
http://eefestival.co.uk/home.html
There were a lot of Poles there, though to think of it many might have come from around the country, but apart from me very few British people.
The number of immigrants to outer middle class suburbia and outlying villages, either pit or commuter, would still be very small and restricted to the traditional Asian medical professionals and restauranters.
But the point remains Doncaster, and many other old industrial towns, has for the first time experienced large scale immigration, the negative effects of which have been concentrated on traditional Labour working class voters.
0 -
The latest Farage rumpus will have no effect on voters. It only goes to the show the gulf between what normal people think - ie we all have instinctive common sense ideas about ideal neighbours - and the barmy logic used by broadcasters who would have it that all cultures are equal.
Regarding the Sun's pious editorial, well that's a joke. Here's their take on the open door law only a few months ago: "Among those eager to cross our new open borders were a convicted thief and his “apprentice” son — plus others who claimed they were bent on stealing scrap metal and raking in benefits."
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/5350243/first-coachload-romanian-migrants-head-to-britain.html
Yeah, great neighbours. Hope they move in nextdoor to me. Not. As I've said before, everyone is media-savvy these days and can spot spin a mile off. Those media outlets that go big on this and push the cultural relativism line will lose credibility and subscribers because it's counter to common sense.0 -
International Whisky day.
Slainte PBers!0 -
This is the important fact.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
So, now we see a socially conservative and economically conservative party emerging, freed of the baggage of attachment to the aristocracy it is a real threat to the old order because the working classes can vote for it. A threat is emerging and the smear operations against UKIP are in futile overdrive. You are either for or against them, with little compromise, in a way that politics has not been since the 1970s or 1980s.
UKIP, either by accident or design, are becoming a working class party.
Its existence has thus become a threat to upper middle class dominance and has provoked the wave of hatred aimed at them from both the upper middle class right and upper middle class left.
It has been revealing that so many of the upper middle classes - people who previously boasted of their tolerance - have exposed their bigotry and hatred of people different to themselves.
They really do hate the working class.
0 -
On topic. if Miliband loses his seat, Labour will be polling at best mid twenties and will not be forming a government. They will not poll that low, but Miliband might find he has a seat moved into the 'slight marginal' column.
Balls is the target for everyone. His seat, too0 -
After I had a pre-cancerous lesion in my mouth last year I have been told to completely abstain from alcohol (not that I was a big drinker in the first place mind)
So on this International Whisky Day a glass of Coke will be about as strong as my drink get's today, LOL!0 -
They come over here, sucking our blood.0
-
It's exactly what the working class have been waiting for. Sadly, it's the wrong party with the wrong approach. Another revolution wasted.another_richard said:
This is the important fact.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
So, now we see a socially conservative and economically conservative party emerging, freed of the baggage of attachment to the aristocracy it is a real threat to the old order because the working classes can vote for it. A threat is emerging and the smear operations against UKIP are in futile overdrive. You are either for or against them, with little compromise, in a way that politics has not been since the 1970s or 1980s.
UKIP, either by accident or design, are becoming a working class party.
Its existence has thus become a threat to upper middle class dominance and has provoked the wave of hatred aimed at them from both the upper middle class right and upper middle class left.
It has been revealing that so many of the upper middle classes - people who previously boasted of their tolerance - have exposed their bigotry and hatred of people different to themselves.
They really do hate the working class.0 -
As a publican, this saddens me. I hope all is now well.GIN1138 said:After I had a pre-cancerous lesion in my mouth last year I have been told to completely abstain from alcohol (not that I was a big drinker in the first place mind)
So on this International Whisky Day a glass of coke will be about as strong as my drink get's today, LOL!0 -
For HurstLlama if he's out there (and hasn't already come across this).
A guard cat doing it's stuff, and doing it well.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i2XHDCngHm80 -
Another_Richard,
I gave out forms for the 2011 census (lovely April weather) and I came across a house full of young Poles. Very good English, but reluctant to fill out any official form. When I explained the law, they took the form with a nod and a wink. No doubt filed in the next wheelie-bin they came across0 -
Good Morning MrG - just googled the1955 as I've never heard of it, blimey, at over £560 a bottle, best make that a very small nip - enjoy your day.malcolmg said:
Mr Briskin it is International whisky day , be sure to have at least one today. I may even treat myself and have a nip out of my 1955 Glen Grant.JBriskin said:team Scotland up nice and early for double fa cup day I see. Enjoy your Saturday everyone!
0 -
They really do hate the working class.
I think its wider than that. All the main parties cannot abide their core vote. Dave doesn't think much of the middle class. That is why he chooses to surround himself with people he believes were born and educated to lead. Trust a comp kid with an important ministerial brief? Goodness me no.0 -
Hope things are better with you.GIN1138 said:After I had a pre-cancerous lesion in my mouth last year I have been told to completely abstain from alcohol (not that I was a big drinker in the first place mind)
So on this International Whisky Day a glass of Coke will be about as strong as my drink get's today, LOL!
But there's always a silver lining - no alcohol means you spend less money.
Really wouldn't want to become an abstainer myself though.
0 -
Mr. Gin, sorry to hear that.0
-
I have no expectation that UKIP could govern successfully but I would hope that they might force the Conservatives into actually caring about the working class.dyedwoolie said:
It's exactly what the working class have been waiting for. Sadly, it's the wrong party with the wrong approach. Another revolution wasted.another_richard said:
This is the important fact.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
So, now we see a socially conservative and economically conservative party emerging, freed of the baggage of attachment to the aristocracy it is a real threat to the old order because the working classes can vote for it. A threat is emerging and the smear operations against UKIP are in futile overdrive. You are either for or against them, with little compromise, in a way that politics has not been since the 1970s or 1980s.
UKIP, either by accident or design, are becoming a working class party.
Its existence has thus become a threat to upper middle class dominance and has provoked the wave of hatred aimed at them from both the upper middle class right and upper middle class left.
It has been revealing that so many of the upper middle classes - people who previously boasted of their tolerance - have exposed their bigotry and hatred of people different to themselves.
They really do hate the working class.
0 -
Yes, just a case of close monitoring and vigilance now, but absolutely nothing that could be carcinogenic (alcohol, smoking, etc..) But like I say, I didn't drink (much) and I didn't smoke at all in the first place, so it's a mystery why I developed Leukoplakia - Though I'm told it can happen without a trigger and when it does it's often more worrying than if it's triggered by smoking, drinking, etc...dyedwoolie said:
As a publican, this saddens me. I hope all is now well.GIN1138 said:After I had a pre-cancerous lesion in my mouth last year I have been told to completely abstain from alcohol (not that I was a big drinker in the first place mind)
So on this International Whisky Day a glass of coke will be about as strong as my drink get's today, LOL!
0 -
Comment = inverted snobbery.taffys said:They really do hate the working class.
I think its wider than that. All the main parties cannot abide their core vote. Dave doesn't think much of the middle class. That is why he chooses to surround himself with people he believes were born and educated to lead. Trust a comp kid with an important ministerial brief? Goodness me no.
0 -
I'm afraid I'm fighting all the sins and hoping they don't floor me. Publican plus love my beer = there may be trouble ahead!GIN1138 said:
Yes, just a case of close monitoring and vigilance now, but absolutely nothing that could be carcinogenic (alcohol, smoking, etc..) But like I say, I didn't drink (much) and I didn't smoke at all in the first place, so it's a mystery why I developed Leukoplakia - Though I'm told it can happen without a trigger and when it does it's often more worrying than if it's triggered by smoking, drinking, etc...dyedwoolie said:
As a publican, this saddens me. I hope all is now well.GIN1138 said:After I had a pre-cancerous lesion in my mouth last year I have been told to completely abstain from alcohol (not that I was a big drinker in the first place mind)
So on this International Whisky Day a glass of coke will be about as strong as my drink get's today, LOL!
0 -
It's possible, but the Tory party stands first and foremost for trickle down economics. I'm waiting ultimately for someone who truly gets it and will just vote to stop Labour until that happens.another_richard said:
I have no expectation that UKIP could govern successfully but I would hope that they might force the Conservatives into actually caring about the working class.dyedwoolie said:
It's exactly what the working class have been waiting for. Sadly, it's the wrong party with the wrong approach. Another revolution wasted.another_richard said:
This is the important fact.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
So, now we see a socially conservative and economically conservative party emerging, freed of the baggage of attachment to the aristocracy it is a real threat to the old order because the working classes can vote for it. A threat is emerging and the smear operations against UKIP are in futile overdrive. You are either for or against them, with little compromise, in a way that politics has not been since the 1970s or 1980s.
UKIP, either by accident or design, are becoming a working class party.
Its existence has thus become a threat to upper middle class dominance and has provoked the wave of hatred aimed at them from both the upper middle class right and upper middle class left.
It has been revealing that so many of the upper middle classes - people who previously boasted of their tolerance - have exposed their bigotry and hatred of people different to themselves.
They really do hate the working class.
0 -
Mr. Perdix, there's a lot of inverted snobbery about. It's just as distasteful (and far more common, it seems) than traditional snobbery (snobbery classic?).0
-
Tim Montgomerie @TimMontgomerie 1h
Newspapers have thrown the kitchen sink at UKIP recently. Thursday's Elections will be a verdict on their influence as well as the parties.0 -
I don't think Cameron likes Conservatives of any background.taffys said:They really do hate the working class.
I think its wider than that. All the main parties cannot abide their core vote. Dave doesn't think much of the middle class. That is why he chooses to surround himself with people he believes were born and educated to lead. Trust a comp kid with an important ministerial brief? Goodness me no.
If his background had been slightly different he would have become a LibDem or New Labour and been happier.
But on your point I suspect its even wider than that. I think Cameron, Clegg, the Milibands and many others have no time for the country in general. They regard themselves as 'World Leaders' and associate with similar people from other 'World Cities' at an endless cycle of meetings and conferences and great events.
After all that puffed up grandiloquence the issues of Witney and Doncaster, Sheffield and South Shields are deemed beneath them.
0 -
HurstLlama said:
International Whisky day? I didn't know that. Thanks for letting us know, Mr. G. As this might be the last such occasion when Scotland is wholly part of the UK, as opposed to being on the exit ramp, I shall resist all temptations to drink international whiskies or even any whiskey. Instead I shall remain content with single Scottish Malts. Well actually I'll probably just stick with the Laphroaig, but maybe I'll find something more adventurous when I go to the shops.malcolmg said:
Mr Briskin it is International whisky day , be sure to have at least one today. I may even treat myself and have a nip out of my 1955 Glen Grant.JBriskin said:team Scotland up nice and early for double fa cup day I see. Enjoy your Saturday everyone!
Indeed a very nice joke and so early in the morning too. To mark that, and Whisky Day, I might have some Clynelish later when the sun is over the yardarm ...david_herdson said:
You're quite right but the joke was too good to miss (and Foot's dog was named after the 19th century Tory PM too).Carnyx said:
I have a feeling the wee dug was called Dizzy, more precisely - but in any case a kind person has already identified the specific Disraeli in question.david_herdson said:
Wasn't it Michael Foot's dog?Carnyx said:
Is that a real tweet by Mr Miliband? Surely Disraeli was a Tory??kjohnw said:Just read this tweet from the intellectually confident Mr Miliband
Ed Miliband MP: To help realise Disraeli’s One Nation vision, you should vote Labour next week
I doubt the average Joe Public even has a clue what he's rattling on about, talking about Disraeli's One nation vision. I think Ed has massive delusions of grandeur, and is so far stuck up his own **** that common sense and reality have slipped him by.
Surely the British people wont vote for this twerp
0 -
No criticism of Farage will ever have an impact on voters in the minds of his hardcore supporters. Sadly for them this interview on LBC showed him with the mask slipped. He is a thoroughly nasty little man. There's nothing wrong with wanting to restore lost national sovereignty or even wishing to leave the EU but campaigning as the BNP-lite is not the way. To call that interview a car crash would be an insult to car crashes. It was more a trainwreck. And if that's what he thinks he needs to do to get the support from the white working class then he has severely misjudged us.Blueberry said:The latest Farage rumpus will have no effect on voters. It only goes to the show the gulf between what normal people think - ie we all have instinctive common sense ideas about ideal neighbours - and the barmy logic used by broadcasters who would have it that all cultures are equal.
Regarding the Sun's pious editorial, well that's a joke. Here's their take on the open door law only a few months ago: "Among those eager to cross our new open borders were a convicted thief and his “apprentice” son — plus others who claimed they were bent on stealing scrap metal and raking in benefits."
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/5350243/first-coachload-romanian-migrants-head-to-britain.html
Yeah, great neighbours. Hope they move in nextdoor to me. Not. As I've said before, everyone is media-savvy these days and can spot spin a mile off. Those media outlets that go big on this and push the cultural relativism line will lose credibility and subscribers because it's counter to common sense.
0 -
SimonStClare said:
Good Morning MrG - just googled the1955 as I've never heard of it, blimey, at over £560 a bottle, best make that a very small nip - enjoy your day.malcolmg said:
Mr Briskin it is International whisky day , be sure to have at least one today. I may even treat myself and have a nip out of my 1955 Glen Grant.JBriskin said:team Scotland up nice and early for double fa cup day I see. Enjoy your Saturday everyone!
Thanks Simon it was from my wife and daughter , for my 50th birthday , born in 1955 so special.
I cannot afford stuff like that generally , so I have a dram from it every now and again,
sadly not a lot left.
I had a lovely Glenrothes recently , bought by a colleague for sealing a very big deal for him that got him five figure commission.
I like all the Glenrothes, even the basic one at £32 which is lovely.
Now must dash, messages to be done and then pub for the cup final.
0 -
Comment = inverted snobbery.
Maybe. But your reaction shows its impossible to make a critique of elitism without being called an inverted snob. Its like anybody who criticizes immigration being called a racist. I guess that is how the main parties keep getting away from it.
What is certain is that tories of humble backgrounds have been marginalised and ignored under cameron. The membership base has shrunk dramatically.0 -
Looks like we will be getting a ComRes later
http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2014/05/17/poll-alert-43/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter0 -
I'd disagree with him, newspapers are much more influential in setting the long term political climate rather than short term election weather.isam said:Tim Montgomerie @TimMontgomerie 1h
Newspapers have thrown the kitchen sink at UKIP recently. Thursday's Elections will be a verdict on their influence as well as the parties.0 -
To be honest I don't blame them.CD13 said:Another_Richard,
I gave out forms for the 2011 census (lovely April weather) and I came across a house full of young Poles. Very good English, but reluctant to fill out any official form. When I explained the law, they took the form with a nod and a wink. No doubt filed in the next wheelie-bin they came across
If I was an economic migrant in another country I'd do the same if I could.
After all they had nothing to gain and potential negative consequences if the 'authorities' find out information on them.
0 -
Personally, I get the feeling it's all a lot more random than the medical profession will admit, so you'll probably be fine.dyedwoolie said:
I'm afraid I'm fighting all the sins and hoping they don't floor me. Publican plus love my beer = there may be trouble ahead!GIN1138 said:
Yes, just a case of close monitoring and vigilance now, but absolutely nothing that could be carcinogenic (alcohol, smoking, etc..) But like I say, I didn't drink (much) and I didn't smoke at all in the first place, so it's a mystery why I developed Leukoplakia - Though I'm told it can happen without a trigger and when it does it's often more worrying than if it's triggered by smoking, drinking, etc...dyedwoolie said:
As a publican, this saddens me. I hope all is now well.GIN1138 said:After I had a pre-cancerous lesion in my mouth last year I have been told to completely abstain from alcohol (not that I was a big drinker in the first place mind)
So on this International Whisky Day a glass of coke will be about as strong as my drink get's today, LOL!
Thanks Richard and Morris.
Vanilla keep's signing me out. #annoying0 -
Um, Sajid Javid ring a bell? Then there's Pickles at DCLG, Hague's Foreign secretary, Hammond at Defence...you'r letting your dislike of Cameron and Osborne get the better of you.taffys said:They really do hate the working class.
I think its wider than that. All the main parties cannot abide their core vote. Dave doesn't think much of the middle class. That is why he chooses to surround himself with people he believes were born and educated to lead. Trust a comp kid with an important ministerial brief? Goodness me no.
0 -
O/T but for the historians/military enthusiasts - it seems that the Royal Artillery Museum aka 'Firepower' is being evicted from their current home at Woolwich in the next year or three.
Very odd way to mark the Great War anniversary ... it seems as if some other 'heritage' will be found to put in its place alongside a token remaining exhibition. Definitely something to visit sooner rather than later if one is thinking of it.
http://www.thisislocallondon.co.uk/news/11147815.Woolwich_Firepower_Royal_Artillery_Museum__set_to_leave_borough_by_2017_/?ref=mr
http://www.greenwichconservatives.com/news/1624
http://www.greenwichconservatives.com/news/1631
0 -
It won't turn away those who think that Nigel is the chosen one. It will make the unsures and waverers avoid putting a cross next to a UKIP box in future and it will all have been by their own doing.corporeal said:
I'd disagree with him, newspapers are much more influential in setting the long term political climate rather than short term election weather.isam said:Tim Montgomerie @TimMontgomerie 1h
Newspapers have thrown the kitchen sink at UKIP recently. Thursday's Elections will be a verdict on their influence as well as the parties.
0 -
For the record, Farage was asked about a group of Romanian men moving next door not a family. Only the blind would fail to see the difference0
-
@LeftFootFwd: This week's most read: 1: Why am I angry about Yes Scotland’s latest poster on child poverty? Let me show you: http://t.co/unQL09jhs60
-
The Modi segment on Newsnight was interesting last night. Seems he is pro business and has risen from a lower class. The ruling Ghandis were seen as leftie but with a clique at the top who looked after their own.MaxPB said:So Dave has extended an invitation for a state visit to Narendra Modi. Very smart politics and great news for businesses looking to invest in India or get investment from Indian multinationals. Puts Labour in a real bind. Do they meet him as will be expected and risk protests and George Galloway all over the media decrying Labour for meeting someone who is seen to be involved in anti-Muslim violence (though no evidence was ever found to show that and Labour over reacted hugely in 2002 by cutting ties), or do they snub him and get a beat down from the business community for playing politics with the economy. Sticky wicket for Ed Miliband. For DC meeting Modi will help shore up votes in Harrow, Leicester, Wembley and possibly Southall. They don't have much chance of winning in Bradford, Whitechapel and other areas with a high proportion of Muslims anyway so meeting with someone like Modi won't make any difference.
Sound like exactly what India needs right now.0 -
@Carnyx Thanks for that link. Today is a gun firing day, bit early to celebrate an Arsenal Trophy... http://www.firepower.org.uk/index.php/explore/arsenal-not-just-a-football-team/
0 -
Mr. Flashman (deceased), quite. That said, the lauded interviewer's suggestion of a group of German children buying a home would alarm me far more!0
-
It is a porkie because child poverty has reduced massively across the whole of the uk.Scott_P said:@LeftFootFwd: This week's most read: 1: Why am I angry about Yes Scotland’s latest poster on child poverty? Let me show you: http://t.co/unQL09jhs6
0 -
One point on that article, whilst they don't have a monopoly on nutters and extremists they certainly have a disproportionate number as their representatives.SeanT said:Did me a blog on UKIP and the liberal Establishment.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100271887/our-political-masters-are-horrified-by-ukip-trouble-is-the-voters-arent/ …
And we don't elect politicians just to do the popular things, we elect them in the hope that they do the right things (which they occasionally surprise us by doing).
By the way, it isn't just the Westminster elite who are voicing their disapproval...my facebook timeline is full of ordinary working class people who never usually voice political opinions giving stick to Ukip.
0 -
DH - thank you for a curve ball from the left field.
Just a few thoughts based on thread so far:
EdM is only in his second term as an MP.
The LDs had nearly 15% in Don N. in 2010; will a third of that migrate to EdM?
In the last YouGov, the 13% UKIP support was split, ABC1: 9 to C2DE 19.
In last week's ST YouGov for Labour VI:
60% of LAB VI thought EDM is doing well as leader of Labour.
32% thought he is a strong leader.
50% say he is up to the job of PM,
39% say DM would make a better leader whilst 12% say he would not.
Will DM get tired of NY and miss the UK and stand as Independent Labour for Doncaster N - he could well win it - revenge is best served cold and can be sweeter as such.0 -
Mr. Notme, is this actual poverty, fuel poverty, relative poverty, I Can't Believe It's Not Poverty, or some other variety?0
-
Nigel lives in perpetual fear of finding that Papa Lazarou has moved next door. It's almost (almost!) enough to put him off his beer.TGOHF said:
Most people would pop round and have a chat before dismissing them mafia child smugglers.isam said:For the record, Farage was asked about a group of Romanian men moving next door not a family. Only the blind would fail to see the difference
0 -
Mr. Bertie, I wonder if, regardless or whether you're pro-, anti- or unsure about UKIP, their rise might be a good thing for British politics. If it gets more people engaged, whether for or against the purples, that could be healthy for democracy.0
-
Mr. Bertie, this is a local party for local people, we'll have no trouble here!0
-
Most people would pop round and have a chat before dismissing them mafia child smugglers.
True but that doesn't mean you wouldn;t be concerned. Its quite natural for people to be concerned about who moves in next to them.0 -
Turnout will go down at the next election.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Bertie, I wonder if, regardless or whether you're pro-, anti- or unsure about UKIP, their rise might be a good thing for British politics. If it gets more people engaged, whether for or against the purples, that could be healthy for democracy.
0 -
Mr. Jim, I'd guess it'll be more or less the same. Might rise, if Yes wins.0
-
Very sensible from Cameron, of the BRIC nations it was obvious that India was the country for us to forge ever closer ties to. And as shown by Tata's investment in JLR it has the potential to enormously benefit british business and industry. Plus a good dose of capitalism will do more to lift many of India's 1 billion citizens out of poverty than any aid spending could.TGOHF said:
The Modi segment on Newsnight was interesting last night. Seems he is pro business and has risen from a lower class. The ruling Ghandis were seen as leftie but with a clique at the top who looked after their own.MaxPB said:So Dave has extended an invitation for a state visit to Narendra Modi. Very smart politics and great news for businesses looking to invest in India or get investment from Indian multinationals. Puts Labour in a real bind. Do they meet him as will be expected and risk protests and George Galloway all over the media decrying Labour for meeting someone who is seen to be involved in anti-Muslim violence (though no evidence was ever found to show that and Labour over reacted hugely in 2002 by cutting ties), or do they snub him and get a beat down from the business community for playing politics with the economy. Sticky wicket for Ed Miliband. For DC meeting Modi will help shore up votes in Harrow, Leicester, Wembley and possibly Southall. They don't have much chance of winning in Bradford, Whitechapel and other areas with a high proportion of Muslims anyway so meeting with someone like Modi won't make any difference.
Sound like exactly what India needs right now.
0 -
Hmm. I think that's optimistic.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jim, I'd guess it'll be more or less the same. Might rise, if Yes wins.
0 -
Mr. Jim, as a character I once wrote said: You can do anything with optimism!0
-
Well hopefully it might make people actually see what policies each party is putting forward before choosing to vote or abstain.ToryJim said:
Turnout will go down at the next election.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Bertie, I wonder if, regardless or whether you're pro-, anti- or unsure about UKIP, their rise might be a good thing for British politics. If it gets more people engaged, whether for or against the purples, that could be healthy for democracy.
And I can't see them sticking with their economic policies from the last election. While there are economic arguments for potentially adopting flatter taxes they are not going to appeal to the working class voters that could get them a seat (they have no chance in the shires of taking out tories, expect them to target working class areas where they may be able to sneak in on a lower threshold).
0 -
Okay-
The votes are in-
I'm sure you'll be all be shocked, shocked to hear we've gone for the orange team (Dundee utd) at 2.40 -
What's interesting is the way the Establishment hasn't been able to contain its annoyance at UKIP even though they must be smart enough to know showing it would only increase the popularity of Farage's party among ordinary people.SeanT said:Did me a blog on UKIP and the liberal Establishment.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100271887/our-political-masters-are-horrified-by-ukip-trouble-is-the-voters-arent/ …0 -
@ WelshBertie
"... my facebook timeline is full of ordinary working class people who never usually voice political opinions giving stick to Ukip"
Your facebook timeline is surely a self-selecting group and is therefore about as good an indicator of public opinion as that other old favourite, the blokes down the pub.0 -
Mr. Llama, one of the nice things about pb.com is that it includes people with varying perspectives. Lefties, pro-global warming persons, even the odd mad as a balloon fellow who thinks Caesar was superior to Hannibal, all can be found here.0
-
Except it isn't. People will vote based on what they think will work out best for them, their family and the country (in that order).SeanT said:
What a load of bullshit.WelshBertie said:
One point on that article, whilst they don't have a monopoly on nutters and extremists they certainly have a disproportionate number as their representatives.SeanT said:Did me a blog on UKIP and the liberal Establishment.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100271887/our-political-masters-are-horrified-by-ukip-trouble-is-the-voters-arent/ …
And we don't elect politicians just to do the popular things, we elect them in the hope that they do the right things (which they occasionally surprise us by doing).
By the way, it isn't just the Westminster elite who are voicing their disapproval...my facebook timeline is full of ordinary working class people who never usually voice political opinions giving stick to Ukip.
And as for the facebook thing. It's completely true. I'm in the Rhondda valley. Most of my friends I would guess would be your typical Labour or Plaid Cymru supporters (there used to be a few Libdems but those days have gone). I've only seen one pro-UKIP thing posted in the last month from someone I know (He then started liking lots of Britain First bullshit as well.). The rest has been overwhelmingly hostile and would make the Tory party look popular by comparison.
0 -
I'm not sure it is bullshit. There's clearly about a third of the public that really dislike UKIP. That's clearly larger than the metropolitan elite. But that's not really a problem, as I reckon the other two thirds will have a fair amount of sympathy towards them (as can be seen by the polling on immigration, burkhas etc).SeanT said:
What a load of bullshit.WelshBertie said:
One point on that article, whilst they don't have a monopoly on nutters and extremists they certainly have a disproportionate number as their representatives.SeanT said:Did me a blog on UKIP and the liberal Establishment.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100271887/our-political-masters-are-horrified-by-ukip-trouble-is-the-voters-arent/ …
And we don't elect politicians just to do the popular things, we elect them in the hope that they do the right things (which they occasionally surprise us by doing).
By the way, it isn't just the Westminster elite who are voicing their disapproval...my facebook timeline is full of ordinary working class people who never usually voice political opinions giving stick to Ukip.0 -
And by happy coincidence we just got our LD leaflet!0
-
I think every kipper has just added you to their Christmas card list - 1000 shared by tea time.SeanT said:Did me a blog on UKIP and the liberal Establishment.
0 -
Mr. Briskin, we got one from An Independence From Europe, or whatever the PFJ is called.0
-
Clearly the answer is for Labour to ditch Ed Miliband and replace him with Nigel Farage, offering him a nice safe seat like, say, Doncaster.0
-
It's mainly full of people I've known since school, know from the local workingmens club, played rugby with etc. Hardly any share my political views, or at least won't admit it openly.. And it's a pretty broad representation of the area. Not that the area is particularly broad, it's pretty much all WWC.HurstLlama said:@ WelshBertie
"... my facebook timeline is full of ordinary working class people who never usually voice political opinions giving stick to Ukip"
Your facebook timeline is surely a self-selecting group and is therefore about as good an indicator of public opinion as that other old favourite, the blokes down the pub.
0 -
I had one from a shady outfit called No2EU which seems to be a bunch of crypto-communists.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Briskin, we got one from An Independence From Europe, or whatever the PFJ is called.
0 -
Haha.Richard_Nabavi said:Clearly the answer is for Labour to ditch Ed Miliband and replace him with Nigel Farage, offering him a nice safe seat like, say, Doncaster.
0 -
I'm sure they sent out a leaflet at the last euros to my address. Haven't had anything for them this time. In fact the only leaflets I've had were from UKIP and the Conservatives. Are Labour that skint? I've seen nothing from them, or Plaid Cymru...the boredom of living in a constituency that is taken for granted.ToryJim said:
I had one from a shady outfit called No2EU which seems to be a bunch of crypto-communists.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Briskin, we got one from An Independence From Europe, or whatever the PFJ is called.
0 -
The poor girls. Did they misinterpret your accent?SeanT said:
Jeez. A few hardcore Welsh lefties on YOUR Facebook page dislike UKIP. Farage is finished.WelshBertie said:
Except it isn't. People will vote based on what they think will work out best for them, their family and the country (in that order).SeanT said:
What a load of bullshit.WelshBertie said:
One point on that article, whilst they don't have a monopoly on nutters and extremists they certainly have a disproportionate number as their representatives.SeanT said:Did me a blog on UKIP and the liberal Establishment.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100271887/our-political-masters-are-horrified-by-ukip-trouble-is-the-voters-arent/ …
And we don't elect politicians just to do the popular things, we elect them in the hope that they do the right things (which they occasionally surprise us by doing).
By the way, it isn't just the Westminster elite who are voicing their disapproval...my facebook timeline is full of ordinary working class people who never usually voice political opinions giving stick to Ukip.
And as for the facebook thing. It's completely true. I'm in the Rhondda valley. Most of my friends I would guess would be your typical Labour or Plaid Cymru supporters (there used to be a few Libdems but those days have gone). I've only seen one pro-UKIP thing posted in the last month from someone I know (He then started liking lots of Britain First bullshit as well.). The rest has been overwhelmingly hostile and would make the Tory party look popular by comparison.
17,000 hookers on my Bangkok soi have just told me the Welsh have tiny penises.
0 -
You're conflating two things: the Census (how many are here today) and the IPS/LTIM figures (arrivals/departures). But let's deal with your point about non-response.another_richard said:Do you really think that all economic migrants living in multiple occupied rented terraced houses fill in a census form ???
I'd be especially sceptical after the ONS recently admitted that it had underestimated the number of immigrants from Eastern Europe by 350,000 becase it didn't bother counting those arriving at regional airports. Regional airports such as the one in Doncaster for example.
The 1991 census was a low point in post-WWII UK censuses, because response rates were much lower than anticipated. The second babyboomers[1] were in the ascendancy and population had become more sceptical of government, causing civil cooperation to fall. To compensate for this, the Census Coverage Survey (CCS) was introduced in 2001 for E&W. The CCS is a smaller, more concentrated survey of about 100,000 households about 3-6 months after the Census proper: the interviewer sits in the house and fills out the form. The CCS and Census are then compared and by noting those who appear in both and in one but not the other, the numbers of those who appear in neither can be estimated and the figures adjusted by age and gender.
It's not a perfect process, and it becomes progressively more inaccurate for each year away from the Census, which is why they are further adjusted manually each year. Eventually after ten years you have to rerun the Census, and we go round again. So non-response is a known problem and has been compensated for the past 20 years
Now let's consider your inferred point: the difficulty of capturing data from an actively noncooperating population. Unlike, say, Scandinavia, E&W is not a registration culture: you can still move from Southampton to Newcastle without informing the police. But even so, data can still be captured. If you register with a GP for example, your name and address will be centrally collated. If you give birth or are treated in a NHS hospital, ditto. Everytime you interact with the welfare state, your name/dob/gender/location is noted, and when the figures are inaccurate (in the mid Noughties, birth rates in Brighton were higher than expected given the population estimates) this is also noted.
It's still possible to vanish: live in a gangmaster's flat, don't get ill, use cash for everything, no bank accounts. And it does happen: the Chinese cocklepickers who drowned in Morecambe were off the grid, for example. But it's not as easy as you think, and when it does happen the effects are noticed.
[1] The UK had two post-war babybooms, not one: the first after WWII as soldiers came home, the second in the 50's as NHS compulsory vaccination lowered infant mortality signficantly0 -
I am sure all that is true, Mr. Bertie, I just don't think it tells us much about the state of public opinion. Let me give you an alternate example and perhaps you'll see what I mean.WelshBertie said:
It's mainly full of people I've known since school, know from the local workingmens club, played rugby with etc. Hardly any share my political views, or at least won't admit it openly.. And it's a pretty broad representation of the area. Not that the area is particularly broad, it's pretty much all WWC.HurstLlama said:@ WelshBertie
"... my facebook timeline is full of ordinary working class people who never usually voice political opinions giving stick to Ukip"
Your facebook timeline is surely a self-selecting group and is therefore about as good an indicator of public opinion as that other old favourite, the blokes down the pub.
The other evening, as a result of something said on here, I initiated a political discussion in the front bar of the New Inn. Just about everyone in there, including the Village's resident Welshman and socialist, had something good to say about UKIP (even if it was only that they are giving voice to opinions that have long been ignored by our political masters). Now what does that really tell you about the views of the people of Mid-Sussex let alone the country as a whole?0
