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How much of that will unwind without the Brexit and Corbyn factors?ydoethur said:
Hmm. The Labour tally went down by exactly 433 votes in 2015. Even in losing in 2019, Drew got more votes than in winning in 1997. Although admittedly, the electorate was bigger.tlg86 said:
That looks to support my view. In 2015 the Tory vote went up and the Labour vote went down. What happened in 2017 and 2019 was driven by big swings to and then against Labour.ydoethur said:
As a counter, I offer you David Drew in Stroud. Lost in 2010, regained in 2017, lost again In 2019.tlg86 said:
Perhaps, but Burnley is another example of where this happened:ydoethur said:
The loss of parliamentary resources to keep name recognition up may have been a factor.tlg86 said:
Really? It seems pretty obvious to me that incumbents get a benefit. Arguably it is more noticeable on the other side. Look what happened to Dr Richard Taylor's vote when he tried to win back Wyre Forest in 2015:squareroot2 said:
An eminent person on here posted about the incumbency benefit and iirc it oroved to be a fallacy.tlg86 said:
One of the things I've been pondering the last couple days is first time incumbency bonus. I watched the 2001 GE yesterday and Labour actually gained Dorset South from the Tories:CorrectHorseBattery said:
So the 2017 GE result then.Andy_JS said:Prediction for tonight's poll: Con 43%, Lab 40%, LD 5%. Labour continuing to squeeze the LDs who are rather invisible at the moment. (Tories only slightly down on the GE when they polled 44.7%).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Dorset_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2000s
They won it with a majority of 153 votes in 2001. On a uniform swing that should have been an easy gain for the Tories in 2005, but Jim Knight increased his majority to 1,812 in that election.
Obviously incumbency counts for very little when there's a tidal wave such as in 1997 or what the Lib Dems experienced in 2015. But I think it is worth a fair amount.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wyre_Forest_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s
But I wonder if his age (76) plus the reduction in salience of the one issue he was fighting on were not factors too.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burnley_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s
That said, it’s only one example. I can’t point to others.
Cannock Chase occurs to me as a possible focus for research too, as Aidan Burley did not stand again in 2015 having won it on a higher than average swing in 2010 (before his issues with fancy dress). I confidently expected Janos Toth to win the seat as a result. But I think the swing to the Tories was above average in 2015 as well. And now, of course, it’s a very safe Tory seat.0 -
Surprised it is not even closerScott_xP said:1 -
It occurred to me earlier today there is only one Liberal Democrat seat that has had consecutive Liberal Democrat MPs - Orkney and Shetland.GarethoftheVale2 said:If you want a good example of incumbency, look at what happened in North Norfolk after Norman Lamb retired.
The others were all captured from other parties by the current incumbents.
Orkney is also the only seat they have held without interruption since before 2005.0 -
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Murdering Black people isn't a culture war.williamglenn said:There’s something weird about referring to this as if it had happened here. We don’t need to import American culture wars.
https://twitter.com/keir_starmer/status/1266672661679218688?s=211 -
BUTCorrectHorseBattery said:
So the 2017 GE result then.Andy_JS said:Prediction for tonight's poll: Con 43%, Lab 40%, LD 5%. Labour continuing to squeeze the LDs who are rather invisible at the moment. (Tories only slightly down on the GE when they polled 44.7%).
20170 -
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wasn't someone pretending to be ITK and saying parity?Scott_xP said:0 -
I'm shocked that the ramping by the pollster was nonsense.1
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That poll was a bit boring. I expected Boris to say he would vote LAB in that poll0
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Hard to social distance when you’re being attacked by swarms of locustseadric said:in terms of cases, there is a definite second wave in Iran.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/iran/
The wave began on May 2, and is picking up speed
https://twitter.com/IranChamber/status/12666384816667811850 -
What's the best site to stream the SpaceX launch on, any suggestions?0
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That's hung parliament!
80 seat majority pissed away in 2 weeks!0 -
eh, when I played football (solid non-league), if I was on form, I was always at the point I couldn't stand at the end of the game. I'd pretend, as I got off the pitch, but then I'd keel over.state_go_away said:Another thing about running is that to win a race (or sometimes to even complete it) you are always at your edge of fitness and knackered ,from elite to beginner. Football /Rugby even tennis rely on skill most of the time wheras you can guarantee if you run you will be knackered at the end of it . To watch someone goign through that is inspiring to me - Just look up Jo Pavey winning the 10,000m at the Euro champs on Youtube at the age of 40 and I defy anyone not to admire that and perhaps have a tear in the eye. As Steve Cram commented - " The arms are going the teeth are gritted c/mon Jo !"
No point in finishing with any air in your lungs0 -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bIZsnKGV8TEBenpointer said:What's the best site to stream the SpaceX launch on, any suggestions?
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Not much difference to Yougov then.Scott_xP said:
Main movement LD to Labour since GE19, Tories down just 1%0 -
Next Time...Big_G_NorthWales said:
Surprised it is not even closerScott_xP said:0 -
That graph shouts Crossover!Scott_xP said:0 -
In Stroud, they will about cancel each other out. Drew was a Corbynista and I think Stroud on the whole was Remain, although it had big Leaver pockets (Dursley and Cam).justin124 said:
How much of that will unwind without the Brexit and Corbyn factors?ydoethur said:
Hmm. The Labour tally went down by exactly 433 votes in 2015. Even in losing in 2019, Drew got more votes than in winning in 1997. Although admittedly, the electorate was bigger.tlg86 said:
That looks to support my view. In 2015 the Tory vote went up and the Labour vote went down. What happened in 2017 and 2019 was driven by big swings to and then against Labour.ydoethur said:
As a counter, I offer you David Drew in Stroud. Lost in 2010, regained in 2017, lost again In 2019.tlg86 said:
Perhaps, but Burnley is another example of where this happened:ydoethur said:
The loss of parliamentary resources to keep name recognition up may have been a factor.tlg86 said:
Really? It seems pretty obvious to me that incumbents get a benefit. Arguably it is more noticeable on the other side. Look what happened to Dr Richard Taylor's vote when he tried to win back Wyre Forest in 2015:squareroot2 said:
An eminent person on here posted about the incumbency benefit and iirc it oroved to be a fallacy.tlg86 said:
One of the things I've been pondering the last couple days is first time incumbency bonus. I watched the 2001 GE yesterday and Labour actually gained Dorset South from the Tories:CorrectHorseBattery said:
So the 2017 GE result then.Andy_JS said:Prediction for tonight's poll: Con 43%, Lab 40%, LD 5%. Labour continuing to squeeze the LDs who are rather invisible at the moment. (Tories only slightly down on the GE when they polled 44.7%).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Dorset_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2000s
They won it with a majority of 153 votes in 2001. On a uniform swing that should have been an easy gain for the Tories in 2005, but Jim Knight increased his majority to 1,812 in that election.
Obviously incumbency counts for very little when there's a tidal wave such as in 1997 or what the Lib Dems experienced in 2015. But I think it is worth a fair amount.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wyre_Forest_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s
But I wonder if his age (76) plus the reduction in salience of the one issue he was fighting on were not factors too.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burnley_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s
That said, it’s only one example. I can’t point to others.
Cannock Chase occurs to me as a possible focus for research too, as Aidan Burley did not stand again in 2015 having won it on a higher than average swing in 2010 (before his issues with fancy dress). I confidently expected Janos Toth to win the seat as a result. But I think the swing to the Tories was above average in 2015 as well. And now, of course, it’s a very safe Tory seat.
In Cannock, I would have said very little. Cannock is an industrial town and rightly or wrongly the perception has taken hold that Labour don’t care about semi-skilled non-unionised workers. There will always be pockets of Labour voters in Rugeley and among the affluent homeowners in Gentleshaw, Cannock Wood and Penkridge Road, but I don’t think this is a seat Labour can profitably target.
Also, their organisation is pretty well hollowed out given very few students or younger graduates who form the core of their urban activist base live here.
But who knows what will happen with Coronavirus? I think about the basis of Cannock’s economy (which, crudely, is based around vehicle manufacturing in various guises) and I tremble for it.0 -
Famously the American public, in the face of the rioting that accompanied the mid twentieth century civil rights protests, made a decisive move to the right and voted for errr, JFK.Andy_JS said:
He's right. Swing voters in the suburbs of Minneapolis are likely to react to riots on the horizon by moving right in the polling booth.Stark_Dawning said:
How does the Hodge work that out? Mass social unrest is normally the thing politicians fear the most.rottenborough said:0 -
See also Berwick after Alan Beith for the longer term effects. A long way third now after 42 years as a Lib/LD seat.GarethoftheVale2 said:If you want a good example of incumbency, look at what happened in North Norfolk after Norman Lamb retired.
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Yeh, but someone really, really important.kinabalu said:That's hung parliament!
80 seat majority pissed away in 2 weeks!
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Probably never as none bar Chile and Qatar have an average life expectancy of over 75eadric said:
Yet.HYUFD said:
Yet none of those countries are even in the top 10 for deaths globallyeadric said:New cases piling up in all corners of the world today
4,220 in Chile
1,618 in Saudi Arabia
2,355 in Qatar (!!)
1,784 in Bangladesh
1,727 in South Africa
1,367 in Egypt
Egypt apart, those are all higher figures than the UK.
This damn virus is accelerating, and warm sunny weather does not seem to be very important.0 -
To misquote Ash Sarkar as Labour stared unto the abyss of defeat six months ago:rottenborough said:
Yeh, but someone really, really important.kinabalu said:That's hung parliament!
80 seat majority pissed away in 2 weeks!
The Red Wave is Cummings.0 -
Its just a Westminster bubble story, the plebs all think BoZo a lovable rogue...Scott_xP said:2 -
I’m amazed as many as a third of people believe Cummings.Scott_xP said:
Does anyone know where they are? I have many bridges for sale.0 -
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Didn't they vote for Nixon in '68?Alistair said:
Famously the American public, in the face of the rioting that accompanied the mid twentieth century civil rights protests, made a decisive move to the right and voted for errr, JFK.Andy_JS said:
He's right. Swing voters in the suburbs of Minneapolis are likely to react to riots on the horizon by moving right in the polling booth.Stark_Dawning said:
How does the Hodge work that out? Mass social unrest is normally the thing politicians fear the most.rottenborough said:1 -
Yep. Rugby League that is certainly true of too.BannedinnParis said:
eh, when I played football (solid non-league), if I was on form, I was always at the point I couldn't stand at the end of the game. I'd pretend, as I got off the pitch, but then I'd keel over.state_go_away said:Another thing about running is that to win a race (or sometimes to even complete it) you are always at your edge of fitness and knackered ,from elite to beginner. Football /Rugby even tennis rely on skill most of the time wheras you can guarantee if you run you will be knackered at the end of it . To watch someone goign through that is inspiring to me - Just look up Jo Pavey winning the 10,000m at the Euro champs on Youtube at the age of 40 and I defy anyone not to admire that and perhaps have a tear in the eye. As Steve Cram commented - " The arms are going the teeth are gritted c/mon Jo !"
No point in finishing with any air in your lungs
Union not as much. That is a different kind of exertion.0 -
They voted for Clinton after the ‘92 LA RiotsFoxy said:
Didn't they vote for Nixon in '68?Alistair said:
Famously the American public, in the face of the rioting that accompanied the mid twentieth century civil rights protests, made a decisive move to the right and voted for errr, JFK.Andy_JS said:
He's right. Swing voters in the suburbs of Minneapolis are likely to react to riots on the horizon by moving right in the polling booth.Stark_Dawning said:
How does the Hodge work that out? Mass social unrest is normally the thing politicians fear the most.rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/latimes/status/12668028271893544970 -
Don't want to blow my own trumpet but my prediction earlier was pretty good. Within 1% on Lab and LD.2
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Re- Cannock. Does not a lot depend on how pissed off people become with the Tories? If we ended up with an election result of Lab 43 Con 39 - the reverse of tonight's Opinium - why would such voters not swing back and be prepared to vote as they did for Tony Wright in 2005? The seat - under various boundaries - has swung about quite a bit in the past. In 1970 it produced the biggest pro- Tory swing which saw the ousting of Jennie Lee - though it was then much bigger.ydoethur said:
In Stroud, they will about cancel each other out. Drew was a Corbynista and I think Stroud on the whole was Remain, although it had big Leaver pockets (Dursley and Cam).justin124 said:
How much of that will unwind without the Brexit and Corbyn factors?ydoethur said:
Hmm. The Labour tally went down by exactly 433 votes in 2015. Even in losing in 2019, Drew got more votes than in winning in 1997. Although admittedly, the electorate was bigger.tlg86 said:
That looks to support my view. In 2015 the Tory vote went up and the Labour vote went down. What happened in 2017 and 2019 was driven by big swings to and then against Labour.ydoethur said:
As a counter, I offer you David Drew in Stroud. Lost in 2010, regained in 2017, lost again In 2019.tlg86 said:
Perhaps, but Burnley is another example of where this happened:ydoethur said:
The loss of parliamentary resources to keep name recognition up may have been a factor.tlg86 said:
Really? It seems pretty obvious to me that incumbents get a benefit. Arguably it is more noticeable on the other side. Look what happened to Dr Richard Taylor's vote when he tried to win back Wyre Forest in 2015:squareroot2 said:
An eminent person on here posted about the incumbency benefit and iirc it oroved to be a fallacy.tlg86 said:
One of the things I've been pondering the last couple days is first time incumbency bonus. I watched the 2001 GE yesterday and Labour actually gained Dorset South from the Tories:CorrectHorseBattery said:
So the 2017 GE result then.Andy_JS said:Prediction for tonight's poll: Con 43%, Lab 40%, LD 5%. Labour continuing to squeeze the LDs who are rather invisible at the moment. (Tories only slightly down on the GE when they polled 44.7%).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Dorset_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2000s
They won it with a majority of 153 votes in 2001. On a uniform swing that should have been an easy gain for the Tories in 2005, but Jim Knight increased his majority to 1,812 in that election.
Obviously incumbency counts for very little when there's a tidal wave such as in 1997 or what the Lib Dems experienced in 2015. But I think it is worth a fair amount.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wyre_Forest_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s
But I wonder if his age (76) plus the reduction in salience of the one issue he was fighting on were not factors too.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burnley_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s
That said, it’s only one example. I can’t point to others.
Cannock Chase occurs to me as a possible focus for research too, as Aidan Burley did not stand again in 2015 having won it on a higher than average swing in 2010 (before his issues with fancy dress). I confidently expected Janos Toth to win the seat as a result. But I think the swing to the Tories was above average in 2015 as well. And now, of course, it’s a very safe Tory seat.
In Cannock, I would have said very little. Cannock is an industrial town and rightly or wrongly the perception has taken hold that Labour don’t care about semi-skilled non-unionised workers. There will always be pockets of Labour voters in Rugeley and among the affluent homeowners in Gentleshaw, Cannock Wood and Penkridge Road, but I don’t think this is a seat Labour can profitably target.
Also, their organisation is pretty well hollowed out given very few students or younger graduates who form the core of their urban activist base live here.
But who knows what will happen with Coronavirus? I think about the basis of Cannock’s economy (which, crudely, is based around vehicle manufacturing in various guises) and I tremble for it.0 -
One minute to go0
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A wee thing called the Vietnam War had occurred. The Tet Offensive was a military disaster for the Viet Cong but a propoganda stunning success for the North Vietnamese.Foxy said:
Didn't they vote for Nixon in '68?Alistair said:
Famously the American public, in the face of the rioting that accompanied the mid twentieth century civil rights protests, made a decisive move to the right and voted for errr, JFK.Andy_JS said:
He's right. Swing voters in the suburbs of Minneapolis are likely to react to riots on the horizon by moving right in the polling booth.Stark_Dawning said:
How does the Hodge work that out? Mass social unrest is normally the thing politicians fear the most.rottenborough said:
Also the key Civil Rights legislation had been passed by '68.0 -
Go!Go!Go!1
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What was the actual question?Scott_xP said:0 -
If Labour did poll 39% across GB in 2024, I would expect the party to manage 25% - 30% in Scotland too.0
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Perhaps, but it’s unlikely.justin124 said:
Re- Cannock. Does not a lot depend on how pissed off people become with the Tories? If we ended up with an election result of Lab 43 Con 39 - the reverse of tonight's Opinium - why would such voters not swing back and be prepared to vote as they did for Tony Wright in 2005? The seat - under various boundaries - has swung about quite a bit in the past. In 1970 it produced the biggest pro- Tory swing which saw the ousting of Jennie Lee - though it was then much bigger.ydoethur said:
In Stroud, they will about cancel each other out. Drew was a Corbynista and I think Stroud on the whole was Remain, although it had big Leaver pockets (Dursley and Cam).justin124 said:
How much of that will unwind without the Brexit and Corbyn factors?ydoethur said:
Hmm. The Labour tally went down by exactly 433 votes in 2015. Even in losing in 2019, Drew got more votes than in winning in 1997. Although admittedly, the electorate was bigger.tlg86 said:
That looks to support my view. In 2015 the Tory vote went up and the Labour vote went down. What happened in 2017 and 2019 was driven by big swings to and then against Labour.ydoethur said:
As a counter, I offer you David Drew in Stroud. Lost in 2010, regained in 2017, lost again In 2019.tlg86 said:
Perhaps, but Burnley is another example of where this happened:ydoethur said:
The loss of parliamentary resources to keep name recognition up may have been a factor.tlg86 said:
Really? It seems pretty obvious to me that incumbents get a benefit. Arguably it is more noticeable on the other side. Look what happened to Dr Richard Taylor's vote when he tried to win back Wyre Forest in 2015:squareroot2 said:
An eminent person on here posted about the incumbency benefit and iirc it oroved to be a fallacy.tlg86 said:
One of the things I've been pondering the last couple days is first time incumbency bonus. I watched the 2001 GE yesterday and Labour actually gained Dorset South from the Tories:CorrectHorseBattery said:
So the 2017 GE result then.Andy_JS said:Prediction for tonight's poll: Con 43%, Lab 40%, LD 5%. Labour continuing to squeeze the LDs who are rather invisible at the moment. (Tories only slightly down on the GE when they polled 44.7%).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Dorset_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2000s
They won it with a majority of 153 votes in 2001. On a uniform swing that should have been an easy gain for the Tories in 2005, but Jim Knight increased his majority to 1,812 in that election.
Obviously incumbency counts for very little when there's a tidal wave such as in 1997 or what the Lib Dems experienced in 2015. But I think it is worth a fair amount.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wyre_Forest_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s
But I wonder if his age (76) plus the reduction in salience of the one issue he was fighting on were not factors too.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burnley_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s
That said, it’s only one example. I can’t point to others.
Cannock Chase occurs to me as a possible focus for research too, as Aidan Burley did not stand again in 2015 having won it on a higher than average swing in 2010 (before his issues with fancy dress). I confidently expected Janos Toth to win the seat as a result. But I think the swing to the Tories was above average in 2015 as well. And now, of course, it’s a very safe Tory seat.
In Cannock, I would have said very little. Cannock is an industrial town and rightly or wrongly the perception has taken hold that Labour don’t care about semi-skilled non-unionised workers. There will always be pockets of Labour voters in Rugeley and among the affluent homeowners in Gentleshaw, Cannock Wood and Penkridge Road, but I don’t think this is a seat Labour can profitably target.
Also, their organisation is pretty well hollowed out given very few students or younger graduates who form the core of their urban activist base live here.
But who knows what will happen with Coronavirus? I think about the basis of Cannock’s economy (which, crudely, is based around vehicle manufacturing in various guises) and I tremble for it.0 -
That might be the wrong question. As Jim Hacker said,Ave_it said:
Jolly good. Just 4 years to the next GE 😊kinabalu said:That's hung parliament!
80 seat majority pissed away in 2 weeks!
"The public can't vote against me for 4 years, but MPs can vote against me at 10 o'clock tonight".
If it turns out that the only thing holding the government together is the sense that Boris'n'Dom are around for the foreseeable future, and that sense is wrong, it could fall apart awfully quickly.0 -
Brazil is not a young country, average life expectancy in Brazil is 75 compared to a global average of 73eadric said:
Brazil is also a young country, look at its death tollHYUFD said:
Probably never as none bar Chile have an average life expectancy of over 75eadric said:
Yet.HYUFD said:
Yet none of those countries are even in the top 10 for deaths globallyeadric said:New cases piling up in all corners of the world today
4,220 in Chile
1,618 in Saudi Arabia
2,355 in Qatar (!!)
1,784 in Bangladesh
1,727 in South Africa
1,367 in Egypt
Egypt apart, those are all higher figures than the UK.
This damn virus is accelerating, and warm sunny weather does not seem to be very important.
Given the size of Bangladesh (161m) and Egypt (98m) it is quite likely one or both will feature in the top 10 for deaths at some point0 -
Yeah, if the welfare of my child was at risk I may have travelled 350 miles. But if I was worried I would have to look after my kid while a bit poorly I wouldn't have.TheScreamingEagles said:
One of those statements matches what Cummings was facing and the other doesn't.1 -
Expectancy is not the same as actual age distribution now.HYUFD said:
Brazil is not a young country, average life expectancy in Brazil is 75 compared to a global average of 73eadric said:
Brazil is also a young country, look at its death tollHYUFD said:
Probably never as none bar Chile have an average life expectancy of over 75eadric said:
Yet.HYUFD said:
Yet none of those countries are even in the top 10 for deaths globallyeadric said:New cases piling up in all corners of the world today
4,220 in Chile
1,618 in Saudi Arabia
2,355 in Qatar (!!)
1,784 in Bangladesh
1,727 in South Africa
1,367 in Egypt
Egypt apart, those are all higher figures than the UK.
This damn virus is accelerating, and warm sunny weather does not seem to be very important.
Given the size of Bangladesh (161m) and Egypt (98m) it is quite likely one or both will feature in the top 10 for deaths at some point0 -
Tory MPs would vote down any budget which put taxes up by 50% and rightly soAve_it said:0 -
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The gap continues to narrow!
Parity soon!0 -
I've found an example where first time incumbency bonus didn't appear to happen:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guildford_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2000s0 -
Brazil's median age of 32 is also well above global median age of 26Carnyx said:
Expectancy is not the same as actual age distribution now.HYUFD said:
Brazil is not a young country, average life expectancy in Brazil is 75 compared to a global average of 73eadric said:
Brazil is also a young country, look at its death tollHYUFD said:
Probably never as none bar Chile have an average life expectancy of over 75eadric said:
Yet.HYUFD said:
Yet none of those countries are even in the top 10 for deaths globallyeadric said:New cases piling up in all corners of the world today
4,220 in Chile
1,618 in Saudi Arabia
2,355 in Qatar (!!)
1,784 in Bangladesh
1,727 in South Africa
1,367 in Egypt
Egypt apart, those are all higher figures than the UK.
This damn virus is accelerating, and warm sunny weather does not seem to be very important.
Given the size of Bangladesh (161m) and Egypt (98m) it is quite likely one or both will feature in the top 10 for deaths at some point
https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/median-age/0 -
Weren't they on SNL from "The Great White North"? Bob and Doug Mackenzierottenborough said:0 -
If your parents owned a second home in the grounds of their own farm, way way from London in the North Country and you thought that everyone else you know has had it and you might be next, would you drive there, even though you were the architect of the Stay At Home message?Alistair said:
What was the actual question?Scott_xP said:
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I'm not sure, there is nothing in the write up.eadric said:
Why is Starmer DOWN five?dr_spyn said:Ed Davy not winning people over.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1266810879200370688
https://www.opinium.co.uk/public-opinion-on-coronavirus-28th-may/0 -
NEW THREAD
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Best PM is the biggest thing here - implies a 3 point lead0
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And Carter in '76.Foxy said:
Didn't they vote for Nixon in '68?Alistair said:
Famously the American public, in the face of the rioting that accompanied the mid twentieth century civil rights protests, made a decisive move to the right and voted for errr, JFK.Andy_JS said:
He's right. Swing voters in the suburbs of Minneapolis are likely to react to riots on the horizon by moving right in the polling booth.Stark_Dawning said:
How does the Hodge work that out? Mass social unrest is normally the thing politicians fear the most.rottenborough said:0 -
It seems PB is full of people who think when a government is no longer ahead in the polls then a general election immediately follows.
The mundane days of 2010-15 with the 10pm YouGov usually showing Labour leads are now long ago.2 -
Nobody in the world except hyufd has the remotest idea whether relative or absolute old age is the killer. Furthermore, demographic stats are so unreliable for many third world countries that we will never be able to arrive at an excess deaths figure.eadric said:
Brazil is also a young country, look at its death tollHYUFD said:
Probably never as none bar Chile have an average life expectancy of over 75eadric said:
Yet.HYUFD said:
Yet none of those countries are even in the top 10 for deaths globallyeadric said:New cases piling up in all corners of the world today
4,220 in Chile
1,618 in Saudi Arabia
2,355 in Qatar (!!)
1,784 in Bangladesh
1,727 in South Africa
1,367 in Egypt
Egypt apart, those are all higher figures than the UK.
This damn virus is accelerating, and warm sunny weather does not seem to be very important.
Given the size of Bangladesh (161m) and Egypt (98m) it is quite likely one or both will feature in the top 10 for deaths at some point1 -
Incumbency varies from place to place and politician to politician.tlg86 said:I've found an example where first time incumbency bonus didn't appear to happen:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guildford_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2000s
Sometimes in can appear more pronounced if the constituency is trending that way in any case or less pronounced if the constituency is trending against the new MP.
LibDem MPs have often had bigger personal votes than those of politicians of other parties but these rarely transfer when that politician stands down.
Despite what was regularly claimed here before 2015 Conservative MPs do have incumbency votes and that of LibDems is no guarantee that they will hold their seats.0 -
Apologies if this received widespread attention when it came out yesterday, but I've just discovered a different poll (this one's on the public's attitudes towards the coronavirus) and it is a real peach:
https://www.kcl.ac.uk/news/uk-still-staying-home-and-even-coming-to-terms-with-lockdown
If anyone was in any doubt that perhaps the only thing at which this Government has been really effective is absolutely scaring the shit out of people, then this should settle the matter. Of particular note is the finding that fully half of the respondents thought that it would be a good idea to have nearly all children home schooled for the very long term (i.e. potentially FOREVER) if a treatment or vaccine can't be found.
I mean, I did suggest the other week that we should bulldoze all the schools to clear brownfield land for housing if the teachers were too scared (or too comfortable working from home) ever to have the kids back, but I'm reasonably sure I meant it as a joke...0 -
FWIW dodgy stats aren't limited to developing countries. We should be able to get our excess deaths right, but nobody has any idea how many people in the UK have actually died of Covid-19. The figure presented at the daily press briefing is a guess.IshmaelZ said:
Nobody in the world except hyufd has the remotest idea whether relative or absolute old age is the killer. Furthermore, demographic stats are so unreliable for many third world countries that we will never be able to arrive at an excess deaths figure.eadric said:
Brazil is also a young country, look at its death tollHYUFD said:
Probably never as none bar Chile have an average life expectancy of over 75eadric said:
Yet.HYUFD said:
Yet none of those countries are even in the top 10 for deaths globallyeadric said:New cases piling up in all corners of the world today
4,220 in Chile
1,618 in Saudi Arabia
2,355 in Qatar (!!)
1,784 in Bangladesh
1,727 in South Africa
1,367 in Egypt
Egypt apart, those are all higher figures than the UK.
This damn virus is accelerating, and warm sunny weather does not seem to be very important.
Given the size of Bangladesh (161m) and Egypt (98m) it is quite likely one or both will feature in the top 10 for deaths at some point0 -
Excess deaths must surely be taken with a pinch of salt however you look at them and whoever provides the numbers. I presume that the numbers are arrived at by looking at averages for prior years fatalities. But what are the factors which create variations in the data used for averaging? Unless you know that and use it to adjust current data to achieve better comparability, then the numbers are virtually useless. As a layman, I'm happy to be told why that's shit if it is.Black_Rook said:
FWIW dodgy stats aren't limited to developing countries. We should be able to get our excess deaths right, but nobody has any idea how many people in the UK have actually died of Covid-19. The figure presented at the daily press briefing is a guess.IshmaelZ said:
Nobody in the world except hyufd has the remotest idea whether relative or absolute old age is the killer. Furthermore, demographic stats are so unreliable for many third world countries that we will never be able to arrive at an excess deaths figure.eadric said:
Brazil is also a young country, look at its death tollHYUFD said:
Probably never as none bar Chile have an average life expectancy of over 75eadric said:
Yet.HYUFD said:
Yet none of those countries are even in the top 10 for deaths globallyeadric said:New cases piling up in all corners of the world today
4,220 in Chile
1,618 in Saudi Arabia
2,355 in Qatar (!!)
1,784 in Bangladesh
1,727 in South Africa
1,367 in Egypt
Egypt apart, those are all higher figures than the UK.
This damn virus is accelerating, and warm sunny weather does not seem to be very important.
Given the size of Bangladesh (161m) and Egypt (98m) it is quite likely one or both will feature in the top 10 for deaths at some point0 -
Seems like the media are getting bored. Top two stories on BBC news website are non-covid related. When was the last time that happened?0
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