Prediction for tonight's poll: Con 43%, Lab 40%, LD 5%. Labour continuing to squeeze the LDs who are rather invisible at the moment. (Tories only slightly down on the GE when they polled 44.7%).
So the 2017 GE result then.
One of the things I've been pondering the last couple days is first time incumbency bonus. I watched the 2001 GE yesterday and Labour actually gained Dorset South from the Tories:
They won it with a majority of 153 votes in 2001. On a uniform swing that should have been an easy gain for the Tories in 2005, but Jim Knight increased his majority to 1,812 in that election.
Obviously incumbency counts for very little when there's a tidal wave such as in 1997 or what the Lib Dems experienced in 2015. But I think it is worth a fair amount.
An eminent person on here posted about the incumbency benefit and iirc it oroved to be a fallacy.
Really? It seems pretty obvious to me that incumbents get a benefit. Arguably it is more noticeable on the other side. Look what happened to Dr Richard Taylor's vote when he tried to win back Wyre Forest in 2015:
As a counter, I offer you David Drew in Stroud. Lost in 2010, regained in 2017, lost again In 2019.
That looks to support my view. In 2015 the Tory vote went up and the Labour vote went down. What happened in 2017 and 2019 was driven by big swings to and then against Labour.
Hmm. The Labour tally went down by exactly 433 votes in 2015. Even in losing in 2019, Drew got more votes than in winning in 1997. Although admittedly, the electorate was bigger.
That said, it’s only one example. I can’t point to others.
Cannock Chase occurs to me as a possible focus for research too, as Aidan Burley did not stand again in 2015 having won it on a higher than average swing in 2010 (before his issues with fancy dress). I confidently expected Janos Toth to win the seat as a result. But I think the swing to the Tories was above average in 2015 as well. And now, of course, it’s a very safe Tory seat.
How much of that will unwind without the Brexit and Corbyn factors?
Prediction for tonight's poll: Con 43%, Lab 40%, LD 5%. Labour continuing to squeeze the LDs who are rather invisible at the moment. (Tories only slightly down on the GE when they polled 44.7%).
Another thing about running is that to win a race (or sometimes to even complete it) you are always at your edge of fitness and knackered ,from elite to beginner. Football /Rugby even tennis rely on skill most of the time wheras you can guarantee if you run you will be knackered at the end of it . To watch someone goign through that is inspiring to me - Just look up Jo Pavey winning the 10,000m at the Euro champs on Youtube at the age of 40 and I defy anyone not to admire that and perhaps have a tear in the eye. As Steve Cram commented - " The arms are going the teeth are gritted c/mon Jo !"
eh, when I played football (solid non-league), if I was on form, I was always at the point I couldn't stand at the end of the game. I'd pretend, as I got off the pitch, but then I'd keel over.
Prediction for tonight's poll: Con 43%, Lab 40%, LD 5%. Labour continuing to squeeze the LDs who are rather invisible at the moment. (Tories only slightly down on the GE when they polled 44.7%).
So the 2017 GE result then.
One of the things I've been pondering the last couple days is first time incumbency bonus. I watched the 2001 GE yesterday and Labour actually gained Dorset South from the Tories:
They won it with a majority of 153 votes in 2001. On a uniform swing that should have been an easy gain for the Tories in 2005, but Jim Knight increased his majority to 1,812 in that election.
Obviously incumbency counts for very little when there's a tidal wave such as in 1997 or what the Lib Dems experienced in 2015. But I think it is worth a fair amount.
An eminent person on here posted about the incumbency benefit and iirc it oroved to be a fallacy.
Really? It seems pretty obvious to me that incumbents get a benefit. Arguably it is more noticeable on the other side. Look what happened to Dr Richard Taylor's vote when he tried to win back Wyre Forest in 2015:
As a counter, I offer you David Drew in Stroud. Lost in 2010, regained in 2017, lost again In 2019.
That looks to support my view. In 2015 the Tory vote went up and the Labour vote went down. What happened in 2017 and 2019 was driven by big swings to and then against Labour.
Hmm. The Labour tally went down by exactly 433 votes in 2015. Even in losing in 2019, Drew got more votes than in winning in 1997. Although admittedly, the electorate was bigger.
That said, it’s only one example. I can’t point to others.
Cannock Chase occurs to me as a possible focus for research too, as Aidan Burley did not stand again in 2015 having won it on a higher than average swing in 2010 (before his issues with fancy dress). I confidently expected Janos Toth to win the seat as a result. But I think the swing to the Tories was above average in 2015 as well. And now, of course, it’s a very safe Tory seat.
How much of that will unwind without the Brexit and Corbyn factors?
In Stroud, they will about cancel each other out. Drew was a Corbynista and I think Stroud on the whole was Remain, although it had big Leaver pockets (Dursley and Cam).
In Cannock, I would have said very little. Cannock is an industrial town and rightly or wrongly the perception has taken hold that Labour don’t care about semi-skilled non-unionised workers. There will always be pockets of Labour voters in Rugeley and among the affluent homeowners in Gentleshaw, Cannock Wood and Penkridge Road, but I don’t think this is a seat Labour can profitably target.
Also, their organisation is pretty well hollowed out given very few students or younger graduates who form the core of their urban activist base live here.
But who knows what will happen with Coronavirus? I think about the basis of Cannock’s economy (which, crudely, is based around vehicle manufacturing in various guises) and I tremble for it.
How does the Hodge work that out? Mass social unrest is normally the thing politicians fear the most.
He's right. Swing voters in the suburbs of Minneapolis are likely to react to riots on the horizon by moving right in the polling booth.
Famously the American public, in the face of the rioting that accompanied the mid twentieth century civil rights protests, made a decisive move to the right and voted for errr, JFK.
How does the Hodge work that out? Mass social unrest is normally the thing politicians fear the most.
He's right. Swing voters in the suburbs of Minneapolis are likely to react to riots on the horizon by moving right in the polling booth.
Famously the American public, in the face of the rioting that accompanied the mid twentieth century civil rights protests, made a decisive move to the right and voted for errr, JFK.
Another thing about running is that to win a race (or sometimes to even complete it) you are always at your edge of fitness and knackered ,from elite to beginner. Football /Rugby even tennis rely on skill most of the time wheras you can guarantee if you run you will be knackered at the end of it . To watch someone goign through that is inspiring to me - Just look up Jo Pavey winning the 10,000m at the Euro champs on Youtube at the age of 40 and I defy anyone not to admire that and perhaps have a tear in the eye. As Steve Cram commented - " The arms are going the teeth are gritted c/mon Jo !"
eh, when I played football (solid non-league), if I was on form, I was always at the point I couldn't stand at the end of the game. I'd pretend, as I got off the pitch, but then I'd keel over.
No point in finishing with any air in your lungs
Yep. Rugby League that is certainly true of too. Union not as much. That is a different kind of exertion.
How does the Hodge work that out? Mass social unrest is normally the thing politicians fear the most.
He's right. Swing voters in the suburbs of Minneapolis are likely to react to riots on the horizon by moving right in the polling booth.
Famously the American public, in the face of the rioting that accompanied the mid twentieth century civil rights protests, made a decisive move to the right and voted for errr, JFK.
Prediction for tonight's poll: Con 43%, Lab 40%, LD 5%. Labour continuing to squeeze the LDs who are rather invisible at the moment. (Tories only slightly down on the GE when they polled 44.7%).
So the 2017 GE result then.
One of the things I've been pondering the last couple days is first time incumbency bonus. I watched the 2001 GE yesterday and Labour actually gained Dorset South from the Tories:
They won it with a majority of 153 votes in 2001. On a uniform swing that should have been an easy gain for the Tories in 2005, but Jim Knight increased his majority to 1,812 in that election.
Obviously incumbency counts for very little when there's a tidal wave such as in 1997 or what the Lib Dems experienced in 2015. But I think it is worth a fair amount.
An eminent person on here posted about the incumbency benefit and iirc it oroved to be a fallacy.
Really? It seems pretty obvious to me that incumbents get a benefit. Arguably it is more noticeable on the other side. Look what happened to Dr Richard Taylor's vote when he tried to win back Wyre Forest in 2015:
As a counter, I offer you David Drew in Stroud. Lost in 2010, regained in 2017, lost again In 2019.
That looks to support my view. In 2015 the Tory vote went up and the Labour vote went down. What happened in 2017 and 2019 was driven by big swings to and then against Labour.
Hmm. The Labour tally went down by exactly 433 votes in 2015. Even in losing in 2019, Drew got more votes than in winning in 1997. Although admittedly, the electorate was bigger.
That said, it’s only one example. I can’t point to others.
Cannock Chase occurs to me as a possible focus for research too, as Aidan Burley did not stand again in 2015 having won it on a higher than average swing in 2010 (before his issues with fancy dress). I confidently expected Janos Toth to win the seat as a result. But I think the swing to the Tories was above average in 2015 as well. And now, of course, it’s a very safe Tory seat.
How much of that will unwind without the Brexit and Corbyn factors?
In Stroud, they will about cancel each other out. Drew was a Corbynista and I think Stroud on the whole was Remain, although it had big Leaver pockets (Dursley and Cam).
In Cannock, I would have said very little. Cannock is an industrial town and rightly or wrongly the perception has taken hold that Labour don’t care about semi-skilled non-unionised workers. There will always be pockets of Labour voters in Rugeley and among the affluent homeowners in Gentleshaw, Cannock Wood and Penkridge Road, but I don’t think this is a seat Labour can profitably target.
Also, their organisation is pretty well hollowed out given very few students or younger graduates who form the core of their urban activist base live here.
But who knows what will happen with Coronavirus? I think about the basis of Cannock’s economy (which, crudely, is based around vehicle manufacturing in various guises) and I tremble for it.
Re- Cannock. Does not a lot depend on how pissed off people become with the Tories? If we ended up with an election result of Lab 43 Con 39 - the reverse of tonight's Opinium - why would such voters not swing back and be prepared to vote as they did for Tony Wright in 2005? The seat - under various boundaries - has swung about quite a bit in the past. In 1970 it produced the biggest pro- Tory swing which saw the ousting of Jennie Lee - though it was then much bigger.
How does the Hodge work that out? Mass social unrest is normally the thing politicians fear the most.
He's right. Swing voters in the suburbs of Minneapolis are likely to react to riots on the horizon by moving right in the polling booth.
Famously the American public, in the face of the rioting that accompanied the mid twentieth century civil rights protests, made a decisive move to the right and voted for errr, JFK.
Didn't they vote for Nixon in '68?
A wee thing called the Vietnam War had occurred. The Tet Offensive was a military disaster for the Viet Cong but a propoganda stunning success for the North Vietnamese.
Also the key Civil Rights legislation had been passed by '68.
Prediction for tonight's poll: Con 43%, Lab 40%, LD 5%. Labour continuing to squeeze the LDs who are rather invisible at the moment. (Tories only slightly down on the GE when they polled 44.7%).
So the 2017 GE result then.
One of the things I've been pondering the last couple days is first time incumbency bonus. I watched the 2001 GE yesterday and Labour actually gained Dorset South from the Tories:
They won it with a majority of 153 votes in 2001. On a uniform swing that should have been an easy gain for the Tories in 2005, but Jim Knight increased his majority to 1,812 in that election.
Obviously incumbency counts for very little when there's a tidal wave such as in 1997 or what the Lib Dems experienced in 2015. But I think it is worth a fair amount.
An eminent person on here posted about the incumbency benefit and iirc it oroved to be a fallacy.
Really? It seems pretty obvious to me that incumbents get a benefit. Arguably it is more noticeable on the other side. Look what happened to Dr Richard Taylor's vote when he tried to win back Wyre Forest in 2015:
As a counter, I offer you David Drew in Stroud. Lost in 2010, regained in 2017, lost again In 2019.
That looks to support my view. In 2015 the Tory vote went up and the Labour vote went down. What happened in 2017 and 2019 was driven by big swings to and then against Labour.
Hmm. The Labour tally went down by exactly 433 votes in 2015. Even in losing in 2019, Drew got more votes than in winning in 1997. Although admittedly, the electorate was bigger.
That said, it’s only one example. I can’t point to others.
Cannock Chase occurs to me as a possible focus for research too, as Aidan Burley did not stand again in 2015 having won it on a higher than average swing in 2010 (before his issues with fancy dress). I confidently expected Janos Toth to win the seat as a result. But I think the swing to the Tories was above average in 2015 as well. And now, of course, it’s a very safe Tory seat.
How much of that will unwind without the Brexit and Corbyn factors?
In Stroud, they will about cancel each other out. Drew was a Corbynista and I think Stroud on the whole was Remain, although it had big Leaver pockets (Dursley and Cam).
In Cannock, I would have said very little. Cannock is an industrial town and rightly or wrongly the perception has taken hold that Labour don’t care about semi-skilled non-unionised workers. There will always be pockets of Labour voters in Rugeley and among the affluent homeowners in Gentleshaw, Cannock Wood and Penkridge Road, but I don’t think this is a seat Labour can profitably target.
Also, their organisation is pretty well hollowed out given very few students or younger graduates who form the core of their urban activist base live here.
But who knows what will happen with Coronavirus? I think about the basis of Cannock’s economy (which, crudely, is based around vehicle manufacturing in various guises) and I tremble for it.
Re- Cannock. Does not a lot depend on how pissed off people become with the Tories? If we ended up with an election result of Lab 43 Con 39 - the reverse of tonight's Opinium - why would such voters not swing back and be prepared to vote as they did for Tony Wright in 2005? The seat - under various boundaries - has swung about quite a bit in the past. In 1970 it produced the biggest pro- Tory swing which saw the ousting of Jennie Lee - though it was then much bigger.
That might be the wrong question. As Jim Hacker said,
"The public can't vote against me for 4 years, but MPs can vote against me at 10 o'clock tonight".
If it turns out that the only thing holding the government together is the sense that Boris'n'Dom are around for the foreseeable future, and that sense is wrong, it could fall apart awfully quickly.
Q How strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statement?
”During Covid-19 restrictions I would have also travelled 260 miles to my parents if I had felt the welfare of my children was at risk”
Yeah, if the welfare of my child was at risk I may have travelled 350 miles. But if I was worried I would have to look after my kid while a bit poorly I wouldn't have.
One of those statements matches what Cummings was facing and the other doesn't.
If your parents owned a second home in the grounds of their own farm, way way from London in the North Country and you thought that everyone else you know has had it and you might be next, would you drive there, even though you were the architect of the Stay At Home message?
How does the Hodge work that out? Mass social unrest is normally the thing politicians fear the most.
He's right. Swing voters in the suburbs of Minneapolis are likely to react to riots on the horizon by moving right in the polling booth.
Famously the American public, in the face of the rioting that accompanied the mid twentieth century civil rights protests, made a decisive move to the right and voted for errr, JFK.
New cases piling up in all corners of the world today
4,220 in Chile 1,618 in Saudi Arabia 2,355 in Qatar (!!) 1,784 in Bangladesh 1,727 in South Africa 1,367 in Egypt
Egypt apart, those are all higher figures than the UK.
This damn virus is accelerating, and warm sunny weather does not seem to be very important.
Yet none of those countries are even in the top 10 for deaths globally
Yet.
Probably never as none bar Chile have an average life expectancy of over 75
Brazil is also a young country, look at its death toll
Given the size of Bangladesh (161m) and Egypt (98m) it is quite likely one or both will feature in the top 10 for deaths at some point
Nobody in the world except hyufd has the remotest idea whether relative or absolute old age is the killer. Furthermore, demographic stats are so unreliable for many third world countries that we will never be able to arrive at an excess deaths figure.
Incumbency varies from place to place and politician to politician.
Sometimes in can appear more pronounced if the constituency is trending that way in any case or less pronounced if the constituency is trending against the new MP.
LibDem MPs have often had bigger personal votes than those of politicians of other parties but these rarely transfer when that politician stands down.
Despite what was regularly claimed here before 2015 Conservative MPs do have incumbency votes and that of LibDems is no guarantee that they will hold their seats.
Apologies if this received widespread attention when it came out yesterday, but I've just discovered a different poll (this one's on the public's attitudes towards the coronavirus) and it is a real peach:
If anyone was in any doubt that perhaps the only thing at which this Government has been really effective is absolutely scaring the shit out of people, then this should settle the matter. Of particular note is the finding that fully half of the respondents thought that it would be a good idea to have nearly all children home schooled for the very long term (i.e. potentially FOREVER) if a treatment or vaccine can't be found.
I mean, I did suggest the other week that we should bulldoze all the schools to clear brownfield land for housing if the teachers were too scared (or too comfortable working from home) ever to have the kids back, but I'm reasonably sure I meant it as a joke...
New cases piling up in all corners of the world today
4,220 in Chile 1,618 in Saudi Arabia 2,355 in Qatar (!!) 1,784 in Bangladesh 1,727 in South Africa 1,367 in Egypt
Egypt apart, those are all higher figures than the UK.
This damn virus is accelerating, and warm sunny weather does not seem to be very important.
Yet none of those countries are even in the top 10 for deaths globally
Yet.
Probably never as none bar Chile have an average life expectancy of over 75
Brazil is also a young country, look at its death toll
Given the size of Bangladesh (161m) and Egypt (98m) it is quite likely one or both will feature in the top 10 for deaths at some point
Nobody in the world except hyufd has the remotest idea whether relative or absolute old age is the killer. Furthermore, demographic stats are so unreliable for many third world countries that we will never be able to arrive at an excess deaths figure.
FWIW dodgy stats aren't limited to developing countries. We should be able to get our excess deaths right, but nobody has any idea how many people in the UK have actually died of Covid-19. The figure presented at the daily press briefing is a guess.
New cases piling up in all corners of the world today
4,220 in Chile 1,618 in Saudi Arabia 2,355 in Qatar (!!) 1,784 in Bangladesh 1,727 in South Africa 1,367 in Egypt
Egypt apart, those are all higher figures than the UK.
This damn virus is accelerating, and warm sunny weather does not seem to be very important.
Yet none of those countries are even in the top 10 for deaths globally
Yet.
Probably never as none bar Chile have an average life expectancy of over 75
Brazil is also a young country, look at its death toll
Given the size of Bangladesh (161m) and Egypt (98m) it is quite likely one or both will feature in the top 10 for deaths at some point
Nobody in the world except hyufd has the remotest idea whether relative or absolute old age is the killer. Furthermore, demographic stats are so unreliable for many third world countries that we will never be able to arrive at an excess deaths figure.
FWIW dodgy stats aren't limited to developing countries. We should be able to get our excess deaths right, but nobody has any idea how many people in the UK have actually died of Covid-19. The figure presented at the daily press briefing is a guess.
Excess deaths must surely be taken with a pinch of salt however you look at them and whoever provides the numbers. I presume that the numbers are arrived at by looking at averages for prior years fatalities. But what are the factors which create variations in the data used for averaging? Unless you know that and use it to adjust current data to achieve better comparability, then the numbers are virtually useless. As a layman, I'm happy to be told why that's shit if it is.
Comments
The others were all captured from other parties by the current incumbents.
Orkney is also the only seat they have held without interruption since before 2005.
not cross over then/
2017
https://twitter.com/IranChamber/status/1266638481666781185
80 seat majority pissed away in 2 weeks!
No point in finishing with any air in your lungs
Main movement LD to Labour since GE19, Tories down just 1%
In Cannock, I would have said very little. Cannock is an industrial town and rightly or wrongly the perception has taken hold that Labour don’t care about semi-skilled non-unionised workers. There will always be pockets of Labour voters in Rugeley and among the affluent homeowners in Gentleshaw, Cannock Wood and Penkridge Road, but I don’t think this is a seat Labour can profitably target.
Also, their organisation is pretty well hollowed out given very few students or younger graduates who form the core of their urban activist base live here.
But who knows what will happen with Coronavirus? I think about the basis of Cannock’s economy (which, crudely, is based around vehicle manufacturing in various guises) and I tremble for it.
The Red Wave is Cummings.
Does anyone know where they are? I have many bridges for sale.
Union not as much. That is a different kind of exertion.
https://twitter.com/latimes/status/1266802827189354497
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1266810879200370688
Also the key Civil Rights legislation had been passed by '68.
”During Covid-19 restrictions I would have also travelled 260 miles to my parents if I had felt the welfare of my children was at risk”
"The public can't vote against me for 4 years, but MPs can vote against me at 10 o'clock tonight".
If it turns out that the only thing holding the government together is the sense that Boris'n'Dom are around for the foreseeable future, and that sense is wrong, it could fall apart awfully quickly.
One of those statements matches what Cummings was facing and the other doesn't.
Although Bob and Doug as astronauts names seems to be a bit pedestrian.
Parity soon!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guildford_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2000s
https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/median-age/
https://www.opinium.co.uk/public-opinion-on-coronavirus-28th-may/
NEW THREAD
The mundane days of 2010-15 with the 10pm YouGov usually showing Labour leads are now long ago.
Sometimes in can appear more pronounced if the constituency is trending that way in any case or less pronounced if the constituency is trending against the new MP.
LibDem MPs have often had bigger personal votes than those of politicians of other parties but these rarely transfer when that politician stands down.
Despite what was regularly claimed here before 2015 Conservative MPs do have incumbency votes and that of LibDems is no guarantee that they will hold their seats.
https://www.kcl.ac.uk/news/uk-still-staying-home-and-even-coming-to-terms-with-lockdown
If anyone was in any doubt that perhaps the only thing at which this Government has been really effective is absolutely scaring the shit out of people, then this should settle the matter. Of particular note is the finding that fully half of the respondents thought that it would be a good idea to have nearly all children home schooled for the very long term (i.e. potentially FOREVER) if a treatment or vaccine can't be found.
I mean, I did suggest the other week that we should bulldoze all the schools to clear brownfield land for housing if the teachers were too scared (or too comfortable working from home) ever to have the kids back, but I'm reasonably sure I meant it as a joke...