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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Will Labour lead in a nationwide YouGov poll in 2020?

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  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,633

    You are Cyclefree and I claim my £5

    :D:D
    I have finally arrived!

    😄
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,633

    From 9 to 4 every day, I can look out my window and see a socially-distanced queue for the pharmacy a few doors down.

    From 4 to 6, I look out and see a socially-distanced queue for people getting a take-out from the pub a few doors down from that.

    It's lovely. Smalltown England is not letting any of this Covid shit get in the way of its pint. We have reused our take-out container so many times now I've had to duct-tape up the base.

    Come and visit us, Anabobazina, and I'll buy you a pint.
    You can both come and visit me here in the Lakes and I’ll buy you both one too!
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    Cyclefree said:

    I have finally arrived!

    😄
    Totally :D:D

    What are you doing up at this hour?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,633
    I might ask you that too!

    I’m always up late - a veritable night owl! Daughter came back and we were chatting and looking at the spectacular night sky - so clear and so full of stars. Plus hours and days no longer mean anything to me: get up when awake, eat when hungry and sleep when tired.

    When I am not with sheep I realise that I am living like a housecat......
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,153
    Andy_JS said:
    Unusually, one of the few things that doesn't trouble me about that story was the police response. What a mess.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Sorry?

    Have I been critical of the Irish PM?
    He's not my PM.

    Have I been critical of the Welsh Minister?
    He's not my minister.

    For the record, I've not been critical of the Austrian President either, although I heard he broke lockdown in Austria.

    If I was Austrian, I would expect I would be critical. Likewise Welsh. Likewise Irish.

    I have voted for exactly one of the following four governments: Ireland, Wales, Austria and the UK. I don't think it's unreasonable that I should pay particular attention to the government that I voted for.
    Well, there you go.

    He's not my MP, so I won't criticise him.
    He's not my PM so I won't criticise him
    He's not a member of one of the devolved governments of the United Kingdom, so I won't criticise him
    He's got bugger all to do with my ... blah blah blah.

    So what exactly are we determining our criticism on? Is it because we don't like Dominic Cummings? Ok fair enough, just asking, thats all.

    Night All :smile:
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    Cyclefree said:

    I might ask you that too!

    I’m always up late - a veritable night owl! Daughter came back and we were chatting and looking at the spectacular night sky - so clear and so full of stars. Plus hours and days no longer mean anything to me: get up when awake, eat when hungry and sleep when tired.

    When I am not with sheep I realise that I am living like a housecat......

    Funny - I was out chatting to someone and then came back and popped the kettle on and did some surfing. Up here the sky is not black, just dark dark blue, but the thumbnail moon looked lovely against the blue of the twilight.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716
    Another thing about the quiet competence of the Labour team: It's impressive that someone's been doing such a solid job at wrangling the shadow cabinet that none of them seem to have been caught breaking the lockdown, and our tub-thumpers are reduced to what-abouting foreign politicians.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716
    Deep thought: People are talking like Kier Starmer not calling for Cummings to resign is a sign of cunning tactical genius, but maybe it means Kier Starmer knows that someone important on the Labour side broke the lockdown.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192


    So what exactly are we determining our criticism on? Is it because we don't like Dominic Cummings? Ok fair enough, just asking, thats all.

    Night All :smile:

    Are you being deliberately obtuse?

    Cummings is an advisor to a PM who set a policy out on national TV saying "If you have this disease, or think you have it, then do not travel"

    Cummings suspected he or his wife had the disease. They then travelled.

    Apparently the law he helped devise did not apply to him. This smacks of hypocrisy

    Hyprocites, or even perceived hypocrites, do not tend to last in UK politics.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Nigelb said:

    Not sure it’s a game changer, as there’s no evidence yet that it improves survival rates, but it’s certainly better that hydrochloroquine.
    It's not a game changer at all. It reduces the duration of the illness by an average of 4 days but it does not prevent mortality. So, perhaps eases any burden on the NHS a little in terms of recovery time.
  • Are you being deliberately obtuse?

    Cummings is an advisor to a PM who set a policy out on national TV saying "If you have this disease, or think you have it, then do not travel"

    Cummings suspected he or his wife had the disease. They then travelled.

    Apparently the law he helped devise did not apply to him. This smacks of hypocrisy

    Hyprocites, or even perceived hypocrites, do not tend to last in UK politics.
    I'm not being obtuse.

    Cummings behaviour was

    Are you being deliberately obtuse?

    Cummings is an advisor to a PM who set a policy out on national TV saying "If you have this disease, or think you have it, then do not travel"

    Cummings suspected he or his wife had the disease. They then travelled.

    Apparently the law he helped devise did not apply to him. This smacks of hypocrisy

    Hyprocites, or even perceived hypocrites, do not tend to last in UK politics.
    I don't think I'm being obtuse at all.

    What Cummings did was wrong, absolutely wrong.

    What I am asking is, why don't we apply the same judgement on all our political representatives?

    Are you being deliberately obtuse?

    Cummings is an advisor to a PM who set a policy out on national TV saying "If you have this disease, or think you have it, then do not travel"

    Cummings suspected he or his wife had the disease. They then travelled.

    Apparently the law he helped devise did not apply to him. This smacks of hypocrisy

    Hyprocites, or even perceived hypocrites, do not tend to last in UK politics.
    I'm not being obtuse at all.

    Cummings behaviour, or at least his decision making, was wrong, totally wrong.

    All I am pointing out is that those that have been most vociferous, were strangely quiet when Labour Mps or EU leaders showed the same level of poor decision making.

    As I said in an earlier post, sack the misdemeanors, irrespective of party (or Brexit) allegiance.

    I spent 7 days self isolating in one room at home. My wife spent 14 days isolating because of my suspected infection. We haven't seen or hugged our children for months.

    We didn't do all that so that Dominic Cummings could ignore the advice that we followed.

    But we also didn't do it so that other wankers could ignore that advice.

    Call out Dominic Cummings by all means, but don't give me excuses for not calling out others because that is just political bollocks.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,264

    Well, there you go.

    He's not my MP, so I won't criticise him.
    He's not my PM so I won't criticise him
    He's not a member of one of the devolved governments of the United Kingdom, so I won't criticise him
    He's got bugger all to do with my ... blah blah blah.

    So what exactly are we determining our criticism on? Is it because we don't like Dominic Cummings? Ok fair enough, just asking, thats all.

    Night All :smile:
    Eh?

    Are you honestly telling me you are as interested in Swiss politics as British politics?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,286
    Most visited countries in the world: France, Spain, USA, China, Italy, Turkey, Mexico, Germany, Thailand, UK.

    https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/10-most-visited-countries-in-the-world.html

    Countries with the most deaths from Covid-19: USA, UK, Italy, France, Spain, Brazil, Belgium, Germany, Mexico, Iran.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,133

    I'm not being obtuse.

    Cummings behaviour was I don't think I'm being obtuse at all.

    What Cummings did was wrong, absolutely wrong.

    What I am asking is, why don't we apply the same judgement on all our political representatives? I'm not being obtuse at all.

    Cummings behaviour, or at least his decision making, was wrong, totally wrong.

    All I am pointing out is that those that have been most vociferous, were strangely quiet when Labour Mps or EU leaders showed the same level of poor decision making.

    As I said in an earlier post, sack the misdemeanors, irrespective of party (or Brexit) allegiance.

    I spent 7 days self isolating in one room at home. My wife spent 14 days isolating because of my suspected infection. We haven't seen or hugged our children for months.

    We didn't do all that so that Dominic Cummings could ignore the advice that we followed.

    But we also didn't do it so that other wankers could ignore that advice.

    Call out Dominic Cummings by all means, but don't give me excuses for not calling out others because that is just political bollocks.

    No it isn't.


    There is a big difference between breaking lockdown (rules applied universally on the healthy) and breaking Self Isolation (for the known infected, and their households).

    I don't think PB Tories are too stupid to know the difference, just wanting to ignore the difference.

    Self Isolation will need to continue as lockdown ends. Trashing that is not a good look.



  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,133
    edited May 2020

    It's not a game changer at all. It reduces the duration of the illness by an average of 4 days but it does not prevent mortality. So, perhaps eases any burden on the NHS a little in terms of recovery time.
    It is not a game changer yet. There seems so far to be little effect on mortality, but that is probably because it is a modest effect and would need larger numbers to show.

    The killer with Covid-19 seems not to be the direct effect of the virus, so much as the inflammation of small blood vessels that builds up as the patient gets over the post viral pneumonia phase.

    This seems to be driving the respiratory, renal and circulatory failure that is killing people. Getting an effective treatment for that blood vessel inflammation is where the real impact will be made IMO.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,286
    Scott_xP said:
    Isn't that arrow of causation a bit of a stretch?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,050

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,486
    A couple of papers outline immune evading characteristics of the virus:
    (nb the first is a preprint)

    The ORF8 Protein of SARS-CoV-2 Mediates Immune Evasion through Potently Downregulating MHC-I
    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.24.111823v1.full.pdf
    ... Here, we show that the viral protein encoded from open reading frame 8 (ORF8) of SARS-CoV-2, which shares the least homology with SARS-CoV among all the viral proteins, can directly interact with MHC-I molecules and significantly down-regulates their surface expression on various cell types. In contrast, ORF8a and ORF8b of SARS-CoV do not exert this function. In the ORF8-expressing cells, MHC-I molecules are selectively target for lysosomal degradation by an autophagy-dependent mechanism. As a result, CTLs inefficiently eliminate the ORF8-expressing cells. Our results demonstrate that ORF8 protein disrupts antigen presentation and reduces the recognition and the elimination of virus-infected cells by CTLs...

    Cell entry mechanisms of SARS-CoV-2
    https://www.pnas.org/content/117/21/11727
    ... Here we investigate the receptor binding and protease activations of SARS-CoV-2 spike, using SARS-CoV spike as a comparison. Our results identify important cell entry mechanisms of SARS-CoV-2 that potentially contribute to the immune evasion, cell infectivity, and wide spread of the virus. The findings reconcile conflicting recent reports on cell entry of SARS-CoV-2. By revealing the surprising strategies that SARS-CoV-2 adopts to infect humans while evading immune surveillance, the findings provide insight into possible intervention strategies targeting cell entry of the virus.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,486
    Andy_JS said:
    It is.

    But on the other hand, the message that those who have respiratory infections should self isolate is an extremely important one, particularly as/when lockdown is lifted.
    Cummings’ actions, and the government’s toleration of them, have seriously blunted that message.

  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,076
    new thread
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,077

    Deep thought: People are talking like Kier Starmer not calling for Cummings to resign is a sign of cunning tactical genius, but maybe it means Kier Starmer knows that someone important on the Labour side broke the lockdown.

    It might be (although the same charge of hypocrisy would not apply since Labour did not impose these regulations). More likely is that SKS knows that a partisan attack would add nothing to the pressure on Cummings, and in fact would ease it by causing DC's Conservative critics, of whom there are many, to rally to his defence if it became a split on party lines.

    In any case, Guido and the papers would be all over it, and they aren't so there isn't.

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,077
    Will Dominic Cummings still be in post on 1st June?

    A slight shift to Cummings resigning, overnight.

    Ladbrokes: 6/4 go, 1/2 stay
    PP/Betfair: 2/5 go, 7/4 stay
    Starsports seems to have taken the market down overnight
This discussion has been closed.