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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Will Labour lead in a nationwide YouGov poll in 2020?

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  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited May 2020

    Scott_xP said:
    When a government becomes a laughing stock, they are done.
    Government's have always been laughed at. Politicians have always been laughed at. Its healthy to laugh at politics. Its healthy to laugh.

    Going to age myself here, but when I was a child Spitting Image was on TV. When I started voting Bremner, Bird and Fortune was on TV. Through that whole time Have I Got News For You has been on TV. Mock The Week, Good News Week, Russell Howard's Good News etc, etc, etc have all made their stock in trade in laughing at politics.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,878
    @Cyclefree
    Very sorry to hear about your losses.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Brom said:

    No chance they lose the Telegraph. Most of the writers have been fairly supportive.

    I agree with the conclusion, but it's sweet that you believe it matters a damn what the writers think!
    You know full well it's over and the press didn't get their man. Their chance was Sunday or Monday and they failed. Yes damage was done, but Boris clearly felt it was worth it to keep his programme on track.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    So who had the worse day

    Gove admitting to repeated motoring offences live on air
    Or
    Hancock lying to a vicar live on telly
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300

    dr_spyn said:

    Mirror running with story about Tory MP's wife having an illegal birthday party in Wales.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/police-break-up-illegal-lockdown-22091335

    The MP wasn't present.

    That is a silly story and the mp wasnot even there
    I suppose the next story will be police break up illegal teenage party at MP's house.
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 757

    dr_spyn said:

    Mirror running with story about Tory MP's wife having an illegal birthday party in Wales.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/police-break-up-illegal-lockdown-22091335

    The MP wasn't present.

    Anyone who thinks if Cummings goes this will draw a line in the sand is a naive fool.

    There'd be blood in the water and the sharks will keep looking for anyone who's done the slightest transgression to be snitched on and ousted.
    Evidence? Did Professor Ferguson's resignation lead to a feeding frenzy? The point about Cummings is not that he broke the rules but that he broke the rules he himself set and that caused considerable hardship to the public.

    He's then rubbed salt in the wound with explanations that are incredible and almost bizarre rather than simply apologise for a lapse in judgement.
    Neither Ferguson nor the Scottish CMO should have resigned. Hopefully we can see the end of gotcha journalism if they tough it out.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Lol, apparently my political instincts are no good.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,675
    I’ve updated the thread header.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    TGOHF666 said:
    When it happens in Mansfield and Bishop Auckland they might have more of a point
  • 9 points in a week but nothing to see here say PB Tories
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    dr_spyn said:

    Mirror running with story about Tory MP's wife having an illegal birthday party in Wales.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/police-break-up-illegal-lockdown-22091335

    The MP wasn't present.

    Anyone who thinks if Cummings goes this will draw a line in the sand is a naive fool.

    There'd be blood in the water and the sharks will keep looking for anyone who's done the slightest transgression to be snitched on and ousted.
    Evidence? Did Professor Ferguson's resignation lead to a feeding frenzy? The point about Cummings is not that he broke the rules but that he broke the rules he himself set and that caused considerable hardship to the public.

    He's then rubbed salt in the wound with explanations that are incredible and almost bizarre rather than simply apologise for a lapse in judgement.
    Prof Ferguson wasn't the victim of a partisan witch hunt. But yes, this has followed that.

    If Cummings goes anyone else who's done anything the slightest bit wrong will be lined up next. The Mirror etc will already be looking for others if they can find them.

    Could be why Starmer is being quiet now. If he knows stuff about his own side he might think it best not to make too much noise now that can be turned around when the tables turn.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,708

    9 points in a week but nothing to see here say PB Tories

    Where is @BluestBlue ?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Only a crazed lunatic would press on now.

    Oh wait...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    9 points in a week but nothing to see here say PB Tories

    I don't think they are saying that.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    9 points in a week but nothing to see here say PB Tories

    Still a Tory lead. Red Ed had managed multiple leads by this point.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,675
    MaxPB said:

    Lol, apparently my political instincts are no good.

    As I said in the previous thread header this reminds me of Brown and the election that never was.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1265389652967596033

    Gap closing, but given wall to wall coverage of that bloody fool Cummings, is it a surprise?

    Had thought that Cummings was stepping back from politics in October for medical reasons, did he have an operation before the GE last December.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    The PB thread when this story first broke and so many were taking the “Westminter bubble” line will be one for the annals. Similar to those shortly before the 2017 GE and the 100+ Tory majority nailed on.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,002

    9 points in a week but nothing to see here say PB Tories

    Biggest drop in a decade!

    Like to see anyone except BoZo do that, eh!

    Reaches parts other Tories can only dream of...
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,240

    dr_spyn said:

    Mirror running with story about Tory MP's wife having an illegal birthday party in Wales.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/police-break-up-illegal-lockdown-22091335

    The MP wasn't present.

    Anyone who thinks if Cummings goes this will draw a line in the sand is a naive fool.

    There'd be blood in the water and the sharks will keep looking for anyone who's done the slightest transgression to be snitched on and ousted.
    No.

    Had he apologised, and had he and the PM done a "I should resign", "No Dom- your country needs you" pas-de-deux on Saturday, he could have survived. It would have been embarrassing, and the government would have suffered some damage, and the Dom Swagger would have to be toned down a bit, but he could have survived. There is a reason that political types in a fix resign; swallowing some humble pie keeps them in the game.

    What appears to be doing for Dom is is refusal to say sorry, his naivety about the press (he should have known on Saturday that there'd be more to come out on Sunday) and the risible contortions of his story yesterday. By treating the Great British Public like muppets he has brought three (and counting) days of hell on his government and ensured that it's more likely that he has to go and never surface again.

    In which case, the questions are:
    1. When?
    2. How? Can he be allowed to resign, or must he be sacked to make a point?
    3. Who does he take down with him?

    Shame in many ways. He was bright and had some interesting ideas.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    9 points in a week but nothing to see here say PB Tories

    Sorry but you predicted Jezza PM. A 6 point lead and 80 majority after the toughest week. Wait til the Labour 38 drops back when normal service resumes. Plus I believe that isn't the only poll out today covering the Cummings period...

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,002

    The PB thread when this story first broke and so many were taking the “Westminter bubble” line will be one for the annals. Similar to those shortly before the 2017 GE and the 100+ Tory majority nailed on.

    I think my favourite bit was Cummings Downing Street refusing to comment on Saturday night. Not worth responding...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    I've said it before, and I'll say it again.. for heaven's sake man, go.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Those horses will get laminitis if their grazing isn't restricted pdq
    Boris may be considering shutting the stable door in a week or two.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    edited May 2020
    Monkeys said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Mirror running with story about Tory MP's wife having an illegal birthday party in Wales.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/police-break-up-illegal-lockdown-22091335

    The MP wasn't present.

    Anyone who thinks if Cummings goes this will draw a line in the sand is a naive fool.

    There'd be blood in the water and the sharks will keep looking for anyone who's done the slightest transgression to be snitched on and ousted.
    Evidence? Did Professor Ferguson's resignation lead to a feeding frenzy? The point about Cummings is not that he broke the rules but that he broke the rules he himself set and that caused considerable hardship to the public.

    He's then rubbed salt in the wound with explanations that are incredible and almost bizarre rather than simply apologise for a lapse in judgement.
    Neither Ferguson nor the Scottish CMO should have resigned. Hopefully we can see the end of gotcha journalism if they tough it out.
    We will see the end of a few things if they "tough it out".
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited May 2020

    dr_spyn said:

    Mirror running with story about Tory MP's wife having an illegal birthday party in Wales.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/police-break-up-illegal-lockdown-22091335

    The MP wasn't present.

    Anyone who thinks if Cummings goes this will draw a line in the sand is a naive fool.

    There'd be blood in the water and the sharks will keep looking for anyone who's done the slightest transgression to be snitched on and ousted.
    No.

    Had he apologised, and had he and the PM done a "I should resign", "No Dom- your country needs you" pas-de-deux on Saturday, he could have survived. It would have been embarrassing, and the government would have suffered some damage, and the Dom Swagger would have to be toned down a bit, but he could have survived. There is a reason that political types in a fix resign; swallowing some humble pie keeps them in the game.

    What appears to be doing for Dom is is refusal to say sorry, his naivety about the press (he should have known on Saturday that there'd be more to come out on Sunday) and the risible contortions of his story yesterday. By treating the Great British Public like muppets he has brought three (and counting) days of hell on his government and ensured that it's more likely that he has to go and never surface again.

    In which case, the questions are:
    1. When?
    2. How? Can he be allowed to resign, or must he be sacked to make a point?
    3. Who does he take down with him?

    Shame in many ways. He was bright and had some interesting ideas.
    No, its over. Even the Mail isn't bothering with it on the front page anymore.

    Boris would lose a lot of my respect if he caves now.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,354
    Can anybody remember Alastair Campbell's dictum about how many days in the headines a miscreant Minister could survive before they got the chop? I seem to remember it was five but my memory might be playing tricks.

    How many days has it been for Dom now anyway?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    MaxPB said:

    Lol, apparently my political instincts are no good.

    As I said in the previous thread header this reminds me of Brown and the election that never was.
    It feels more like the dementia tax to me. Either way it's bad.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102

    9 points in a week but nothing to see here say PB Tories

    Can you qualify your generalisations. There are plenty conservatives both here and in public including myself demanding Cummings goes and Boris can follow if he does not get a grip

    And it is not polls that matter 4 years out, it is the lack of awareness and rank stupidity that matters and those responsible must pay a price
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    You can see why Ladbrokes pulled the market.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,002

    Can anybody remember Alastair Campbell's dictum about how many days in the headines a miscreant Minister could survive before they got the chop? I seem to remember it was five but my memory might be playing tricks.

    How many days has it been for Dom now anyway?

    five
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,878
    Whistle while you work!
    Boris is a twerp
    He's half-barmy
    So's Dom Cummings
    Whistle while you work!
  • You are kind of betting on whether Cummings stays. If he does, a Labour lead at some point would seem inevitable.

    Not so sure otherwise, especially if Boris were to move quickly and decisively against Pinnochio.

    Too late for that now surely TT?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    edited May 2020
    Scott_xP said:
    Anything. Announce anything.

    Anything to stop them asking Cummings about his fucking eyesight test method and his blog revising and his 4 1/2 hour drive without a toilet break and the lack of a single person to help with childcare in a city of eight million where your wife works for a leading magazine and the child care regulations that were revised the day the Guardian phoned and the blue bell wood and the phone call from the father and... etc etc etc.

    I wouldn't be surprised if we aren't announcing a UK manned mission to Mars by Friday.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Scott_xP said:

    9 points in a week but nothing to see here say PB Tories

    Biggest drop in a decade!

    Like to see anyone except BoZo do that, eh!

    Reaches parts other Tories can only dream of...
    someone never got over losing Brexit and the election. I remember you being excited about the people's vote and look how that turned out. I'm sure there's a tweet for that. A poll might make the left giddy but the facts are Boris is in a stronger position in the long run by keeping Cummings then he is keeping a few extra polling points. His opponents know that which is why they have everything to get rid of him.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,354
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Lol, apparently my political instincts are no good.

    As I said in the previous thread header this reminds me of Brown and the election that never was.
    It feels more like the dementia tax to me. Either way it's bad.
    No it's more Brown - political cowardice rather than ill-timed policy.
  • 9 points in a week but nothing to see here say PB Tories

    Can you qualify your generalisations. There are plenty conservatives both here and in public including myself demanding Cummings goes and Boris can follow if he does not get a grip

    And it is not polls that matter 4 years out, it is the lack of awareness and rank stupidity that matters and those responsible must pay a price
    You've been sacked from the PB Tories mate
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 597
    Scott_xP said:
    It does remind me of the Diana hysteria, Cummings probably less popular than Ian Huntley and Rose West right now. The lockdown has sent everyone stir crazy and the story is now a lightning conductor for the public's pent up frustration out of all proportion to his alleged transgression.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    edited May 2020

    9 points in a week but nothing to see here say PB Tories

    Still a Tory lead. Red Ed had managed multiple leads by this point.
    You keep parroting this nonsense comparison with Milliband. Quite aside from the fact that we’re in the middle of an unprecedented global pandemic, at this point in the Coalition government, the cuts and economic pain had really started to bite. Wait until the (far worse) economic pain starts to be fished out by the government, not to mention the looming fiasco of WTO Brexit.

    Oh, and the use of Red Ed is seriously childish.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533

    I’d like to report that my public law exam went very well! Easiest one yet. Only one more to go now: tort law on Friday.

    Great!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    I’d like to report that my public law exam went very well! Easiest one yet. Only one more to go now: tort law on Friday.

    Beers on standby, I hope.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    9 points in a week but nothing to see here say PB Tories

    Where is @BluestBlue ?
    Here. Still not wetting myself :smile:

    If a 6-point Tory lead at the apex of the outrage is the best Labour can do with the entire media pulling for them, then toughing it out will work just fine.

    Those who lack courage and imagination are welcome to disagree. As as those who think there's a general election next week, rather than in 2024.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Lol, apparently my political instincts are no good.

    As I said in the previous thread header this reminds me of Brown and the election that never was.
    It feels more like the dementia tax to me. Either way it's bad.
    No it's more Brown - political cowardice rather than ill-timed policy.
    Maybe, yes. I think in terms of polling it will be more like the dementia tax.

    I said this afternoon that Boris has moved 3m voters from the Tory column into the undecided one. I stand by that.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Scott_xP said:
    LOL. Shock new advice for ruling elite.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    edited May 2020

    dr_spyn said:

    Mirror running with story about Tory MP's wife having an illegal birthday party in Wales.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/police-break-up-illegal-lockdown-22091335

    The MP wasn't present.

    Anyone who thinks if Cummings goes this will draw a line in the sand is a naive fool.

    There'd be blood in the water and the sharks will keep looking for anyone who's done the slightest transgression to be snitched on and ousted.
    Evidence? Did Professor Ferguson's resignation lead to a feeding frenzy? The point about Cummings is not that he broke the rules but that he broke the rules he himself set and that caused considerable hardship to the public.

    He's then rubbed salt in the wound with explanations that are incredible and almost bizarre rather than simply apologise for a lapse in judgement.
    Prof Ferguson wasn't the victim of a partisan witch hunt. But yes, this has followed that.

    If Cummings goes anyone else who's done anything the slightest bit wrong will be lined up next. The Mirror etc will already be looking for others if they can find them.

    Could be why Starmer is being quiet now. If he knows stuff about his own side he might think it best not to make too much noise now that can be turned around when the tables turn.
    Have you considered Breitbart?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,002

    I’d like to report that my public law exam went very well! Easiest one yet. Only one more to go now: tort law on Friday.

    Nice!

    When is your "driving while visually impaired, Yes or no?" exam?
  • 38 points, means Starmer is almost at parity with Corbyn, already
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    Scott_xP said:
    Anything. Announce anything.

    Anything to stop them asking Cummings about his fucking eyesight test method and his blog revising and his 4 1/2 hour drive without a toilet break and the lack of a single person to help with childcare in a city of eight million where your wife works for a leading magazine and the child care regulations that were revised the day the Guardian phoned and the blue bell wood and the phone call from the father and... etc etc etc.

    I wouldn't be surprised if we aren't announcing a UK manned mission to Mars by Friday.
    Yes, or a Bridge to New York. Boris likes Bridges.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139

    9 points in a week but nothing to see here say PB Tories

    Tories still ahead and main movement from the LDs and Greens to Labour since 2019 it seems but if the lead slips further than it will be of greater concern
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    RobD said:
    Cummings or the Cabinet Ministers? 😉
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102

    dr_spyn said:

    Mirror running with story about Tory MP's wife having an illegal birthday party in Wales.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/police-break-up-illegal-lockdown-22091335

    The MP wasn't present.

    Anyone who thinks if Cummings goes this will draw a line in the sand is a naive fool.

    There'd be blood in the water and the sharks will keep looking for anyone who's done the slightest transgression to be snitched on and ousted.
    No.

    Had he apologised, and had he and the PM done a "I should resign", "No Dom- your country needs you" pas-de-deux on Saturday, he could have survived. It would have been embarrassing, and the government would have suffered some damage, and the Dom Swagger would have to be toned down a bit, but he could have survived. There is a reason that political types in a fix resign; swallowing some humble pie keeps them in the game.

    What appears to be doing for Dom is is refusal to say sorry, his naivety about the press (he should have known on Saturday that there'd be more to come out on Sunday) and the risible contortions of his story yesterday. By treating the Great British Public like muppets he has brought three (and counting) days of hell on his government and ensured that it's more likely that he has to go and never surface again.

    In which case, the questions are:
    1. When?
    2. How? Can he be allowed to resign, or must he be sacked to make a point?
    3. Who does he take down with him?

    Shame in many ways. He was bright and had some interesting ideas.
    No, its over. Even the Mail isn't bothering with it on the front page anymore.

    Boris would lose a lot of my respect if he caves now.
    Boris has lost huge amounts of respect and he has even lost his USP

    If he sacks Cummings he will plod on, but if not they will both be gone by the end of the year
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    For the second night running, my mum brought up the story spontaneously on the phone. We’d been talking about the difficulties of parents with small children and I said how it must be particularly bad for those parents who lived in flats in inner London.

    “What do they do with them?”, I said.

    “They get in their car and drive to Durham, don’t they?”, mum replied.

    I do hope the Prime Minister is not planning on winning the next election by inspiring the people.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    When the Star is piling on you know it's got maximum cut through.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288

    9 points in a week but nothing to see here say PB Tories

    Where is @BluestBlue ?
    Here. Still not wetting myself :smile:

    If a 6-point Tory lead at the apex of the outrage is the best Labour can do with the entire media pulling for them, then toughing it out will work just fine.

    Those who lack courage and imagination are welcome to disagree. As as those who think there's a general election next week, rather than in 2024.
    You speak like a man who thinks this is the last pickle the Johnson government will get into.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    kinabalu said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Mirror running with story about Tory MP's wife having an illegal birthday party in Wales.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/police-break-up-illegal-lockdown-22091335

    The MP wasn't present.

    Anyone who thinks if Cummings goes this will draw a line in the sand is a naive fool.

    There'd be blood in the water and the sharks will keep looking for anyone who's done the slightest transgression to be snitched on and ousted.
    Evidence? Did Professor Ferguson's resignation lead to a feeding frenzy? The point about Cummings is not that he broke the rules but that he broke the rules he himself set and that caused considerable hardship to the public.

    He's then rubbed salt in the wound with explanations that are incredible and almost bizarre rather than simply apologise for a lapse in judgement.
    Prof Ferguson wasn't the victim of a partisan witch hunt. But yes, this has followed that.

    If Cummings goes anyone else who's done anything the slightest bit wrong will be lined up next. The Mirror etc will already be looking for others if they can find them.

    Could be why Starmer is being quiet now. If he knows stuff about his own side he might think it best not to make too much noise now that can be turned around when the tables turn.
    Have you considered Breitbart?
    Philip is showing worrying signs of being the new Plato
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    dr_spyn said:

    Mirror running with story about Tory MP's wife having an illegal birthday party in Wales.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/police-break-up-illegal-lockdown-22091335

    The MP wasn't present.

    Anyone who thinks if Cummings goes this will draw a line in the sand is a naive fool.

    There'd be blood in the water and the sharks will keep looking for anyone who's done the slightest transgression to be snitched on and ousted.
    No.

    Had he apologised, and had he and the PM done a "I should resign", "No Dom- your country needs you" pas-de-deux on Saturday, he could have survived. It would have been embarrassing, and the government would have suffered some damage, and the Dom Swagger would have to be toned down a bit, but he could have survived. There is a reason that political types in a fix resign; swallowing some humble pie keeps them in the game.

    What appears to be doing for Dom is is refusal to say sorry, his naivety about the press (he should have known on Saturday that there'd be more to come out on Sunday) and the risible contortions of his story yesterday. By treating the Great British Public like muppets he has brought three (and counting) days of hell on his government and ensured that it's more likely that he has to go and never surface again.

    In which case, the questions are:
    1. When?
    2. How? Can he be allowed to resign, or must he be sacked to make a point?
    3. Who does he take down with him?

    Shame in many ways. He was bright and had some interesting ideas.
    No, its over. Even the Mail isn't bothering with it on the front page anymore.

    Boris would lose a lot of my respect if he caves now.
    It's over, it's dropped down the BBC most read. The sun and mail are less interested. No point sacking him now. The PB bubble would have assumed Dom got sacked every day while Twitter was raging but they clearly feel the damage is worth it.

    The public appetite for the story is tiring, so if the mirror and guardian want to run with it til Friday they can but Boris has made up his mind and is not for turning IMO. That's why the odds on Cummings going with Ladbrokes have drifted.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    LOL. Shock new advice for ruling elite.
    Christ. This is getting brutal.

    We are told Johnson craves being liked and popular and people laughing along with him.

    This must be killing him.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    dr_spyn said:

    Mirror running with story about Tory MP's wife having an illegal birthday party in Wales.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/police-break-up-illegal-lockdown-22091335

    The MP wasn't present.

    Anyone who thinks if Cummings goes this will draw a line in the sand is a naive fool.

    There'd be blood in the water and the sharks will keep looking for anyone who's done the slightest transgression to be snitched on and ousted.
    No.

    Had he apologised, and had he and the PM done a "I should resign", "No Dom- your country needs you" pas-de-deux on Saturday, he could have survived. It would have been embarrassing, and the government would have suffered some damage, and the Dom Swagger would have to be toned down a bit, but he could have survived. There is a reason that political types in a fix resign; swallowing some humble pie keeps them in the game.

    What appears to be doing for Dom is is refusal to say sorry, his naivety about the press (he should have known on Saturday that there'd be more to come out on Sunday) and the risible contortions of his story yesterday. By treating the Great British Public like muppets he has brought three (and counting) days of hell on his government and ensured that it's more likely that he has to go and never surface again.

    In which case, the questions are:
    1. When?
    2. How? Can he be allowed to resign, or must he be sacked to make a point?
    3. Who does he take down with him?

    Shame in many ways. He was bright and had some interesting ideas.
    No, its over. Even the Mail isn't bothering with it on the front page anymore.

    Boris would lose a lot of my respect if he caves now.
    Boris has lost huge amounts of respect and he has even lost his USP

    If he sacks Cummings he will plod on, but if not they will both be gone by the end of the year
    What odds would you offer that both are still in place by the end of the year?
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    38 points, means Starmer is almost at parity with Corbyn, already

    That's an insult to Starmer.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,354
    edited May 2020
    dr_spyn said:

    https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1265389652967596033

    Gap closing, but given wall to wall coverage of that bloody fool Cummings, is it a surprise?

    Had thought that Cummings was stepping back from politics in October for medical reasons, did he have an operation before the GE last December.

    Yes, I think it is a surprise.

    For many of us this isn't a left versus right thing, or leave versus remain. It's simply right versus wrong, in which case there is no reason to expect a big party political impact unless any of the Parties screw it up. Starmer has wisely kept his head down. Boris could have killed it, but hasn't so I guess that accounts for the slippage. Even so the shift in VI is small compared with the other key indicators.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533

    Scott_xP said:
    Anything. Announce anything.

    Anything to stop them asking Cummings about his fucking eyesight test method and his blog revising and his 4 1/2 hour drive without a toilet break and the lack of a single person to help with childcare in a city of eight million where your wife works for a leading magazine and the child care regulations that were revised the day the Guardian phoned and the blue bell wood and the phone call from the father and... etc etc etc.

    I wouldn't be surprised if we aren't announcing a UK manned mission to Mars by Friday.
    Yes, that's...strange. Surrey is one of the 11 pilot areas for track and trace. Borough councils are supposed to help, and we have just been contacted. We're supposed to be operational the day after tomorrow?? This is like that "Go back to work tomorrow morning" thing.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    For the second night running, my mum brought up the story spontaneously on the phone. We’d been talking about the difficulties of parents with small children and I said how it must be particularly bad for those parents who lived in flats in inner London.

    “What do they do with them?”, I said.

    “They get in their car and drive to Durham, don’t they?”, mum replied.

    I do hope the Prime Minister is not planning on winning the next election by inspiring the people.

    I'm assuming now he wont be around to fight the next election. A reason will be found.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Pro_Rata said:

    9 points in a week but nothing to see here say PB Tories

    Where is @BluestBlue ?
    Here. Still not wetting myself :smile:

    If a 6-point Tory lead at the apex of the outrage is the best Labour can do with the entire media pulling for them, then toughing it out will work just fine.

    Those who lack courage and imagination are welcome to disagree. As as those who think there's a general election next week, rather than in 2024.
    You speak like a man who thinks this is the last pickle the Johnson government will get into.
    Governments go through crises from time to time.

    Governments that collapse at the first sniff of trouble are not good governments.

    That Boris has managed to ride this out is a strength not a weakness.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102

    9 points in a week but nothing to see here say PB Tories

    Can you qualify your generalisations. There are plenty conservatives both here and in public including myself demanding Cummings goes and Boris can follow if he does not get a grip

    And it is not polls that matter 4 years out, it is the lack of awareness and rank stupidity that matters and those responsible must pay a price
    You've been sacked from the PB Tories mate
    I cannot be sacked as I have my membership in tact and I am not a mate.

    There are plenty of us who will fight Cummings from within and Boris if needs be

    Pity labourites didn't do the same with Corbyn
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Scott_xP said:
    Private Eye have their work cut out now.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    Scott_xP said:
    They need to tell Boris and resign if he stays
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    eadric said:

    I actually thought the VI polls would be much WORSE for the Tories: maybe a small Labour lead

    But the ancillary polls are grim. They have to hope that the Joy of Unlockdowning puts this in the past very soon.

    Why the F didn't Boris do what I suggested, sack Dom on Friday, for a few weeks/months, use him quietly as an advisor on the phone, rehire him in August in some different role but basically the same one.

    A terrific error.

    Yeah, pulling a Mandelson was such an obvious way out of this. So dumb.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    https://twitter.com/feedthedrummer/status/1265386139269070848

    Damning for the Government. Labour is coming back and this is Johnson's Black Wednesday

    It speaks to the common sense of people and Cummings has to go and the 1922 can start inviting letters as far as I am concerned
    Wow. You have turned and no mistake. I did not see that coming. Perhaps my antenna needs a re-tune.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    I’d like to report that my public law exam went very well! Easiest one yet. Only one more to go now: tort law on Friday.

    Congratulations! Happy for you!
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    To be fair, just because the public are not happy with the Government, it does not mean they are going to vote for Sir Keir’s Labour. However it certainly makes it more likely.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    HYUFD said:

    9 points in a week but nothing to see here say PB Tories

    Tories still ahead and main movement from the LDs and Greens to Labour since 2019 it seems but if the lead slips further than it will be of greater concern
    Even you cannot accept this utter car crash.

    I hope you will join me now in demanding Cummings goes
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,680
    Scott_xP said:
    This is massively significant. The Star rarely dabbles in politics because the people who buy it aren't much interested. If it knows that Cummings's antics have cut through to its readership then it will have cut through to everyone. This will probably be the biggest political story of the century.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    Scott_xP said:
    This is massively significant. The Star rarely dabbles in politics because the people who buy it aren't much interested. If it knows that Cummings's antics have cut through to its readership then it will have cut through to everyone. This will probably be the biggest political story of the century.
    Of the century? OK. :D
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Pro_Rata said:

    9 points in a week but nothing to see here say PB Tories

    Where is @BluestBlue ?
    Here. Still not wetting myself :smile:

    If a 6-point Tory lead at the apex of the outrage is the best Labour can do with the entire media pulling for them, then toughing it out will work just fine.

    Those who lack courage and imagination are welcome to disagree. As as those who think there's a general election next week, rather than in 2024.
    You speak like a man who thinks this is the last pickle the Johnson government will get into.
    Governments go through crises from time to time.

    Governments that collapse at the first sniff of trouble are not good governments.

    That Boris has managed to ride this out is a strength not a weakness.
    I agree. Strength is either sacking him by Saturday or keeping him. Weakness would be sacking him today or yesterday.

    He is over reliant on Cummings but he has not been indecisive in this case. The Tories biggest critics will regret letting this moment slip through their fingers. Boris and Cummings are proven winners and have taken a huge hit to stay intact. Would anti Brexit or Labour supporters rather gain 4 points in a poll or have Cummings ousted? We all know the answer. I don't think they're getting both.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    Scott_xP said:
    Anything. Announce anything.

    Anything to stop them asking Cummings about his fucking eyesight test method and his blog revising and his 4 1/2 hour drive without a toilet break and the lack of a single person to help with childcare in a city of eight million where your wife works for a leading magazine and the child care regulations that were revised the day the Guardian phoned and the blue bell wood and the phone call from the father and... etc etc etc.

    I wouldn't be surprised if we aren't announcing a UK manned mission to Mars by Friday.
    Yes, that's...strange. Surrey is one of the 11 pilot areas for track and trace. Borough councils are supposed to help, and we have just been contacted. We're supposed to be operational the day after tomorrow?? This is like that "Go back to work tomorrow morning" thing.
    BoZo did rather unwisely commit to Track and Trace being in place and "world leading" by Monday.


    Yep. Seems set up to fail once again. Starmer is beginning to grow on me a little. He is clever enough to not interrupt an enemy making a mistake. At present that means keeping fairly quiet and letting the Tories stew.

    Tis a pity though. Track and Trace could have been quite a step forward if Isolation wasn't a laughing stock.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    Brom said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Mirror running with story about Tory MP's wife having an illegal birthday party in Wales.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/police-break-up-illegal-lockdown-22091335

    The MP wasn't present.

    Anyone who thinks if Cummings goes this will draw a line in the sand is a naive fool.

    There'd be blood in the water and the sharks will keep looking for anyone who's done the slightest transgression to be snitched on and ousted.
    No.

    Had he apologised, and had he and the PM done a "I should resign", "No Dom- your country needs you" pas-de-deux on Saturday, he could have survived. It would have been embarrassing, and the government would have suffered some damage, and the Dom Swagger would have to be toned down a bit, but he could have survived. There is a reason that political types in a fix resign; swallowing some humble pie keeps them in the game.

    What appears to be doing for Dom is is refusal to say sorry, his naivety about the press (he should have known on Saturday that there'd be more to come out on Sunday) and the risible contortions of his story yesterday. By treating the Great British Public like muppets he has brought three (and counting) days of hell on his government and ensured that it's more likely that he has to go and never surface again.

    In which case, the questions are:
    1. When?
    2. How? Can he be allowed to resign, or must he be sacked to make a point?
    3. Who does he take down with him?

    Shame in many ways. He was bright and had some interesting ideas.
    No, its over. Even the Mail isn't bothering with it on the front page anymore.

    Boris would lose a lot of my respect if he caves now.
    It's over, it's dropped down the BBC most read. The sun and mail are less interested. No point sacking him now. The PB bubble would have assumed Dom got sacked every day while Twitter was raging but they clearly feel the damage is worth it.

    The public appetite for the story is tiring, so if the mirror and guardian want to run with it til Friday they can but Boris has made up his mind and is not for turning IMO. That's why the odds on Cummings going with Ladbrokes have drifted.
    When most Tory MPs want Cummings out, most voters want Cummings out and the Tories poll lead has plunged almost 10% overnight this is not over
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    Scott_xP said:
    Anything. Announce anything.

    Anything to stop them asking Cummings about his fucking eyesight test method and his blog revising and his 4 1/2 hour drive without a toilet break and the lack of a single person to help with childcare in a city of eight million where your wife works for a leading magazine and the child care regulations that were revised the day the Guardian phoned and the blue bell wood and the phone call from the father and... etc etc etc.

    I wouldn't be surprised if we aren't announcing a UK manned mission to Mars by Friday.
    Yes, that's...strange. Surrey is one of the 11 pilot areas for track and trace. Borough councils are supposed to help, and we have just been contacted. We're supposed to be operational the day after tomorrow?? This is like that "Go back to work tomorrow morning" thing.
    They you go. Thanks for the info. They have rushed forward track and trace in an effort to throw the cat once again on the table.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102

    9 points in a week but nothing to see here say PB Tories

    Where is @BluestBlue ?
    Here. Still not wetting myself :smile:

    If a 6-point Tory lead at the apex of the outrage is the best Labour can do with the entire media pulling for them, then toughing it out will work just fine.

    Those who lack courage and imagination are welcome to disagree. As as those who think there's a general election next week, rather than in 2024.
    You cannot govern without consent and right now, and in a pandemic, Cummings has trashed the party's support.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Scott_xP said:
    This is massively significant. The Star rarely dabbles in politics because the people who buy it aren't much interested. If it knows that Cummings's antics have cut through to its readership then it will have cut through to everyone. This will probably be the biggest political story of the century.
    Well you didn't lose your sense of humour after losing the election so fair play to you. Readership will have a giggle at Cummings but they'll still vote Tory if there was an election next week.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    This
    Scott_xP said:
    This reminds me of some of the better Viz tabloid parodies
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Scott_xP said:
    Crerar is soooo desperate for her scalp, and yet with every day that passes that prized bald pate slips further through her fingers...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,149
    Scott_xP said:
    Quite aside from the personality issues that Cummings inspires I cannot help but think that a great many backbench Tory MPs believe, probably correctly, that no one in the leadership would stick up for them so hard. Gratitude for the GE victory only goes so far.
  • https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1265396449635942400

    PB Tories insist, there is nothing to be seen here
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1265396449635942400

    PB Tories insist, there is nothing to be seen here

    Plenty of them don't.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    kinabalu said:

    https://twitter.com/feedthedrummer/status/1265386139269070848

    Damning for the Government. Labour is coming back and this is Johnson's Black Wednesday

    It speaks to the common sense of people and Cummings has to go and the 1922 can start inviting letters as far as I am concerned
    Wow. You have turned and no mistake. I did not see that coming. Perhaps my antenna needs a re-tune.
    Much as I disagree with Big_G on a number of issues, I have to say that when he changes his view on something it often seems to be the case that a large swathe of the country has reached a similar view.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,149

    Scott_xP said:
    This is massively significant. The Star rarely dabbles in politics because the people who buy it aren't much interested. If it knows that Cummings's antics have cut through to its readership then it will have cut through to everyone. This will probably be the biggest political story of the century.
    I hope not, what a crappy century for scandals that would be.
This discussion has been closed.