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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Will Labour lead in a nationwide YouGov poll in 2020?

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  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,317

    Ave_it said:

    I don't want to be repetitive :lol: but I have posted a number of times on here that we need to remove restrictions on family gatherings and also get the pubs, restaurants etc open (initially on a socially distanced basis if we have to) from 1 June. This is what the public are really interested in at the moment.

    You are Cyclefree and I claim my £5

    :D:D
    I have finally arrived!

    😄
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,317

    Pubs are the backbone of Britain. They are the very essence of the nation. I mountain bike from pub to pub in the summer months, sometimes I stay over, on longer rides.

    They are diamonds studding the English landscape. In the winter, I walk with friends to them and warm up with a pint.

    I’m stunned and saddened at how sanguine many PBers are at the potential destruction of our national heritage.

    Every sinew should be strained to get these back open, with public funding if necessary.

    That’s what I think.

    From 9 to 4 every day, I can look out my window and see a socially-distanced queue for the pharmacy a few doors down.

    From 4 to 6, I look out and see a socially-distanced queue for people getting a take-out from the pub a few doors down from that.

    It's lovely. Smalltown England is not letting any of this Covid shit get in the way of its pint. We have reused our take-out container so many times now I've had to duct-tape up the base.

    Come and visit us, Anabobazina, and I'll buy you a pint.
    You can both come and visit me here in the Lakes and I’ll buy you both one too!
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Cyclefree said:

    Ave_it said:

    I don't want to be repetitive :lol: but I have posted a number of times on here that we need to remove restrictions on family gatherings and also get the pubs, restaurants etc open (initially on a socially distanced basis if we have to) from 1 June. This is what the public are really interested in at the moment.

    You are Cyclefree and I claim my £5

    :D:D
    I have finally arrived!

    😄
    Totally :D:D

    What are you doing up at this hour?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,317
    I might ask you that too!

    I’m always up late - a veritable night owl! Daughter came back and we were chatting and looking at the spectacular night sky - so clear and so full of stars. Plus hours and days no longer mean anything to me: get up when awake, eat when hungry and sleep when tired.

    When I am not with sheep I realise that I am living like a housecat......
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,434
    Andy_JS said:
    Unusually, one of the few things that doesn't trouble me about that story was the police response. What a mess.
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I don't often post, but I've had a couple of glasses of a decent red tonight, so WTF.

    Can you tell me, all those people that are calling for Cummings to resign, were you as angry and vociferous about Stephen Kinnock or Kevan Jones? How about Tahir Ali and Vaughn Gething? What about Leo Varadkar? No doubt there are many more that I have missed out.

    Do I think Cummings was mistaken in the actions that he took, probably yes.

    But FFS, let's be clear, this is not about the rights and wrongs of his actions. Unless you made the same angry criticism about those other political figures, it's about where you sit with your own political views (please don't bring in Brexit although I am sure that is also colouring some views).

    Go ahead, repost and retweet some politically biased persons 'tremendously insightful' or 'funny' Twitter comment. That won't persuade anyone with a brain, one way or the other (but it might make you feel good)

    When newspapers and TV stations bang on about "the ordinary people will feel they don't have to follow the rules", are they encouraging good behaviour or are they behaving irresponsibly in an attempt to make a few coins. Are they contributing to the solution or the problem?

    I'm old enough to remember when our media reported news rather than went for "gotcha" moments. These last few months have seen the fourth estate lose their marbles completely.

    Enough, back to the Paulliac

    I didn't call for him to go. I called for him to apologise.

    He chose not to do so. And Boris Johnson chose to back him despite his failure to apologise.

    This has diminished both of them in my eyes.
    I have the greatest respect for you, your contribution to this great site and your posts in general. However....

    My point is not about the rights and wrongs of Dominic Cummings and his actions. It is about the equal treatment of misdemeanors from whatever political stripe they stand. Do you think that there has been an impartial and unbiased approach because I don't think there has.
    I don't understand your question.

    "It is about the equal treatment of misdemeanors from whatever political stripe they stand. Do you think that there has been an impartial and unbiased approach because I don't think there has"

    The PB community is not a single entity, it is hundreds of different posters of different political persuasions.

    Some are baying for DC's blood because he's their political enemy.

    Others defend him.

    I am telling you that I believe he acted in a way that weakens our democracy and our country by not owning up and apologising for his actions. That is my view.

    What other posters say is of no relevence whatsoever to my view. And bringing up the Irish PM (or is he ex-PM yet?) is equally of no relevance.

    I am critical because one of the senior advisors to my country's government broke government guidelines that everyone else was expected to follow, and then behaved in an incredibly arrogant way that suggested that he was subject to different rules to everyone else.
    But, my question still stands. Have you been as critical of others in senior positions.

    Let's face it, Cummings seems to be an awkward and arrogant sod. Yes, I believe he was wrong in what he did.

    But tell me that in our discourse on this site that the Irish Prime Minister is irrelevant (let's see the media compare the UK death rates with those of Ireland to see how irrelevant that will be).

    Is the Welsh Labour Party spokesperson on Health no less relevant than a government advisor?

    The answer to those questions is clearly no. But if we are going to allow a witch hunt, let's get all the bastards 😁
    Sorry?

    Have I been critical of the Irish PM?
    He's not my PM.

    Have I been critical of the Welsh Minister?
    He's not my minister.

    For the record, I've not been critical of the Austrian President either, although I heard he broke lockdown in Austria.

    If I was Austrian, I would expect I would be critical. Likewise Welsh. Likewise Irish.

    I have voted for exactly one of the following four governments: Ireland, Wales, Austria and the UK. I don't think it's unreasonable that I should pay particular attention to the government that I voted for.
    Well, there you go.

    He's not my MP, so I won't criticise him.
    He's not my PM so I won't criticise him
    He's not a member of one of the devolved governments of the United Kingdom, so I won't criticise him
    He's got bugger all to do with my ... blah blah blah.

    So what exactly are we determining our criticism on? Is it because we don't like Dominic Cummings? Ok fair enough, just asking, thats all.

    Night All :smile:
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Cyclefree said:

    I might ask you that too!

    I’m always up late - a veritable night owl! Daughter came back and we were chatting and looking at the spectacular night sky - so clear and so full of stars. Plus hours and days no longer mean anything to me: get up when awake, eat when hungry and sleep when tired.

    When I am not with sheep I realise that I am living like a housecat......

    Funny - I was out chatting to someone and then came back and popped the kettle on and did some surfing. Up here the sky is not black, just dark dark blue, but the thumbnail moon looked lovely against the blue of the twilight.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Another thing about the quiet competence of the Labour team: It's impressive that someone's been doing such a solid job at wrangling the shadow cabinet that none of them seem to have been caught breaking the lockdown, and our tub-thumpers are reduced to what-abouting foreign politicians.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Deep thought: People are talking like Kier Starmer not calling for Cummings to resign is a sign of cunning tactical genius, but maybe it means Kier Starmer knows that someone important on the Labour side broke the lockdown.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163


    So what exactly are we determining our criticism on? Is it because we don't like Dominic Cummings? Ok fair enough, just asking, thats all.

    Night All :smile:

    Are you being deliberately obtuse?

    Cummings is an advisor to a PM who set a policy out on national TV saying "If you have this disease, or think you have it, then do not travel"

    Cummings suspected he or his wife had the disease. They then travelled.

    Apparently the law he helped devise did not apply to him. This smacks of hypocrisy

    Hyprocites, or even perceived hypocrites, do not tend to last in UK politics.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Nigelb said:

    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Anything. Announce anything.

    Anything to stop them asking Cummings about his fucking eyesight test method and his blog revising and his 4 1/2 hour drive without a toilet break and the lack of a single person to help with childcare in a city of eight million where your wife works for a leading magazine and the child care regulations that were revised the day the Guardian phoned and the blue bell wood and the phone call from the father and... etc etc etc.

    I wouldn't be surprised if we aren't announcing a UK manned mission to Mars by Friday.
    Yes, that's...strange. Surrey is one of the 11 pilot areas for track and trace. Borough councils are supposed to help, and we have just been contacted. We're supposed to be operational the day after tomorrow?? This is like that "Go back to work tomorrow morning" thing.
    BoZo did rather unwisely commit to Track and Trace being in place and "world leading" by Monday.


    Yep. Seems set up to fail once again. Starmer is beginning to grow on me a little. He is clever enough to not interrupt an enemy making a mistake. At present that means keeping fairly quiet and letting the Tories stew.

    Tis a pity though. Track and Trace could have been quite a step forward if Isolation wasn't a laughing stock.
    Away from Dumbings for a moment and the Remdesivir story on the Guardian and Times front pages looks promising.

    A mitigation in recovery time will make a large difference I should think?
    Agreed - its a real game changer.
    Not sure it’s a game changer, as there’s no evidence yet that it improves survival rates, but it’s certainly better that hydrochloroquine.
    It's not a game changer at all. It reduces the duration of the illness by an average of 4 days but it does not prevent mortality. So, perhaps eases any burden on the NHS a little in terms of recovery time.

  • So what exactly are we determining our criticism on? Is it because we don't like Dominic Cummings? Ok fair enough, just asking, thats all.

    Night All :smile:

    Are you being deliberately obtuse?

    Cummings is an advisor to a PM who set a policy out on national TV saying "If you have this disease, or think you have it, then do not travel"

    Cummings suspected he or his wife had the disease. They then travelled.

    Apparently the law he helped devise did not apply to him. This smacks of hypocrisy

    Hyprocites, or even perceived hypocrites, do not tend to last in UK politics.
    I'm not being obtuse.

    Cummings behaviour was


    So what exactly are we determining our criticism on? Is it because we don't like Dominic Cummings? Ok fair enough, just asking, thats all.

    Night All :smile:

    Are you being deliberately obtuse?

    Cummings is an advisor to a PM who set a policy out on national TV saying "If you have this disease, or think you have it, then do not travel"

    Cummings suspected he or his wife had the disease. They then travelled.

    Apparently the law he helped devise did not apply to him. This smacks of hypocrisy

    Hyprocites, or even perceived hypocrites, do not tend to last in UK politics.
    I don't think I'm being obtuse at all.

    What Cummings did was wrong, absolutely wrong.

    What I am asking is, why don't we apply the same judgement on all our political representatives?


    So what exactly are we determining our criticism on? Is it because we don't like Dominic Cummings? Ok fair enough, just asking, thats all.

    Night All :smile:

    Are you being deliberately obtuse?

    Cummings is an advisor to a PM who set a policy out on national TV saying "If you have this disease, or think you have it, then do not travel"

    Cummings suspected he or his wife had the disease. They then travelled.

    Apparently the law he helped devise did not apply to him. This smacks of hypocrisy

    Hyprocites, or even perceived hypocrites, do not tend to last in UK politics.
    I'm not being obtuse at all.

    Cummings behaviour, or at least his decision making, was wrong, totally wrong.

    All I am pointing out is that those that have been most vociferous, were strangely quiet when Labour Mps or EU leaders showed the same level of poor decision making.

    As I said in an earlier post, sack the misdemeanors, irrespective of party (or Brexit) allegiance.

    I spent 7 days self isolating in one room at home. My wife spent 14 days isolating because of my suspected infection. We haven't seen or hugged our children for months.

    We didn't do all that so that Dominic Cummings could ignore the advice that we followed.

    But we also didn't do it so that other wankers could ignore that advice.

    Call out Dominic Cummings by all means, but don't give me excuses for not calling out others because that is just political bollocks.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,217

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I don't often post, but I've had a couple of glasses of a decent red tonight, so WTF.

    Can you tell me, all those people that are calling for Cummings to resign, were you as angry and vociferous about Stephen Kinnock or Kevan Jones? How about Tahir Ali and Vaughn Gething? What about Leo Varadkar? No doubt there are many more that I have missed out.

    Do I think Cummings was mistaken in the actions that he took, probably yes.

    But FFS, let's be clear, this is not about the rights and wrongs of his actions. Unless you made the same angry criticism about those other political figures, it's about where you sit with your own political views (please don't bring in Brexit although I am sure that is also colouring some views).

    Go ahead, repost and retweet some politically biased persons 'tremendously insightful' or 'funny' Twitter comment. That won't persuade anyone with a brain, one way or the other (but it might make you feel good)

    When newspapers and TV stations bang on about "the ordinary people will feel they don't have to follow the rules", are they encouraging good behaviour or are they behaving irresponsibly in an attempt to make a few coins. Are they contributing to the solution or the problem?

    I'm old enough to remember when our media reported news rather than went for "gotcha" moments. These last few months have seen the fourth estate lose their marbles completely.

    Enough, back to the Paulliac

    I didn't call for him to go. I called for him to apologise.

    He chose not to do so. And Boris Johnson chose to back him despite his failure to apologise.

    This has diminished both of them in my eyes.
    I have the greatest respect for you, your contribution to this great site and your posts in general. However....

    My point is not about the rights and wrongs of Dominic Cummings and his actions. It is about the equal treatment of misdemeanors from whatever political stripe they stand. Do you think that there has been an impartial and unbiased approach because I don't think there has.
    I don't understand your question.

    "It is about the equal treatment of misdemeanors from whatever political stripe they stand. Do you think that there has been an impartial and unbiased approach because I don't think there has"

    The PB community is not a single entity, it is hundreds of different posters of different political persuasions.

    Some are baying for DC's blood because he's their political enemy.

    Others defend him.

    I am telling you that I believe he acted in a way that weakens our democracy and our country by not owning up and apologising for his actions. That is my view.

    What other posters say is of no relevence whatsoever to my view. And bringing up the Irish PM (or is he ex-PM yet?) is equally of no relevance.

    I am critical because one of the senior advisors to my country's government broke government guidelines that everyone else was expected to follow, and then behaved in an incredibly arrogant way that suggested that he was subject to different rules to everyone else.
    But, my question still stands. Have you been as critical of others in senior positions.

    Let's face it, Cummings seems to be an awkward and arrogant sod. Yes, I believe he was wrong in what he did.

    But tell me that in our discourse on this site that the Irish Prime Minister is irrelevant (let's see the media compare the UK death rates with those of Ireland to see how irrelevant that will be).

    Is the Welsh Labour Party spokesperson on Health no less relevant than a government advisor?

    The answer to those questions is clearly no. But if we are going to allow a witch hunt, let's get all the bastards 😁
    Sorry?

    Have I been critical of the Irish PM?
    He's not my PM.

    Have I been critical of the Welsh Minister?
    He's not my minister.

    For the record, I've not been critical of the Austrian President either, although I heard he broke lockdown in Austria.

    If I was Austrian, I would expect I would be critical. Likewise Welsh. Likewise Irish.

    I have voted for exactly one of the following four governments: Ireland, Wales, Austria and the UK. I don't think it's unreasonable that I should pay particular attention to the government that I voted for.
    Well, there you go.

    He's not my MP, so I won't criticise him.
    He's not my PM so I won't criticise him
    He's not a member of one of the devolved governments of the United Kingdom, so I won't criticise him
    He's got bugger all to do with my ... blah blah blah.

    So what exactly are we determining our criticism on? Is it because we don't like Dominic Cummings? Ok fair enough, just asking, thats all.

    Night All :smile:
    Eh?

    Are you honestly telling me you are as interested in Swiss politics as British politics?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    Most visited countries in the world: France, Spain, USA, China, Italy, Turkey, Mexico, Germany, Thailand, UK.

    https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/10-most-visited-countries-in-the-world.html

    Countries with the most deaths from Covid-19: USA, UK, Italy, France, Spain, Brazil, Belgium, Germany, Mexico, Iran.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720


    So what exactly are we determining our criticism on? Is it because we don't like Dominic Cummings? Ok fair enough, just asking, thats all.

    Night All :smile:

    Are you being deliberately obtuse?

    Cummings is an advisor to a PM who set a policy out on national TV saying "If you have this disease, or think you have it, then do not travel"

    Cummings suspected he or his wife had the disease. They then travelled.

    Apparently the law he helped devise did not apply to him. This smacks of hypocrisy

    Hyprocites, or even perceived hypocrites, do not tend to last in UK politics.
    I'm not being obtuse.

    Cummings behaviour was


    So what exactly are we determining our criticism on? Is it because we don't like Dominic Cummings? Ok fair enough, just asking, thats all.

    Night All :smile:

    Are you being deliberately obtuse?

    Cummings is an advisor to a PM who set a policy out on national TV saying "If you have this disease, or think you have it, then do not travel"

    Cummings suspected he or his wife had the disease. They then travelled.

    Apparently the law he helped devise did not apply to him. This smacks of hypocrisy

    Hyprocites, or even perceived hypocrites, do not tend to last in UK politics.
    I don't think I'm being obtuse at all.

    What Cummings did was wrong, absolutely wrong.

    What I am asking is, why don't we apply the same judgement on all our political representatives?


    So what exactly are we determining our criticism on? Is it because we don't like Dominic Cummings? Ok fair enough, just asking, thats all.

    Night All :smile:

    Are you being deliberately obtuse?

    Cummings is an advisor to a PM who set a policy out on national TV saying "If you have this disease, or think you have it, then do not travel"

    Cummings suspected he or his wife had the disease. They then travelled.

    Apparently the law he helped devise did not apply to him. This smacks of hypocrisy

    Hyprocites, or even perceived hypocrites, do not tend to last in UK politics.
    I'm not being obtuse at all.

    Cummings behaviour, or at least his decision making, was wrong, totally wrong.

    All I am pointing out is that those that have been most vociferous, were strangely quiet when Labour Mps or EU leaders showed the same level of poor decision making.

    As I said in an earlier post, sack the misdemeanors, irrespective of party (or Brexit) allegiance.

    I spent 7 days self isolating in one room at home. My wife spent 14 days isolating because of my suspected infection. We haven't seen or hugged our children for months.

    We didn't do all that so that Dominic Cummings could ignore the advice that we followed.

    But we also didn't do it so that other wankers could ignore that advice.

    Call out Dominic Cummings by all means, but don't give me excuses for not calling out others because that is just political bollocks.

    No it isn't.


    There is a big difference between breaking lockdown (rules applied universally on the healthy) and breaking Self Isolation (for the known infected, and their households).

    I don't think PB Tories are too stupid to know the difference, just wanting to ignore the difference.

    Self Isolation will need to continue as lockdown ends. Trashing that is not a good look.



  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    edited May 2020

    Nigelb said:

    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Anything. Announce anything.

    Anything to stop them asking Cummings about his fucking eyesight test method and his blog revising and his 4 1/2 hour drive without a toilet break and the lack of a single person to help with childcare in a city of eight million where your wife works for a leading magazine and the child care regulations that were revised the day the Guardian phoned and the blue bell wood and the phone call from the father and... etc etc etc.

    I wouldn't be surprised if we aren't announcing a UK manned mission to Mars by Friday.
    Yes, that's...strange. Surrey is one of the 11 pilot areas for track and trace. Borough councils are supposed to help, and we have just been contacted. We're supposed to be operational the day after tomorrow?? This is like that "Go back to work tomorrow morning" thing.
    BoZo did rather unwisely commit to Track and Trace being in place and "world leading" by Monday.


    Yep. Seems set up to fail once again. Starmer is beginning to grow on me a little. He is clever enough to not interrupt an enemy making a mistake. At present that means keeping fairly quiet and letting the Tories stew.

    Tis a pity though. Track and Trace could have been quite a step forward if Isolation wasn't a laughing stock.
    Away from Dumbings for a moment and the Remdesivir story on the Guardian and Times front pages looks promising.

    A mitigation in recovery time will make a large difference I should think?
    Agreed - its a real game changer.
    Not sure it’s a game changer, as there’s no evidence yet that it improves survival rates, but it’s certainly better that hydrochloroquine.
    It's not a game changer at all. It reduces the duration of the illness by an average of 4 days but it does not prevent mortality. So, perhaps eases any burden on the NHS a little in terms of recovery time.
    It is not a game changer yet. There seems so far to be little effect on mortality, but that is probably because it is a modest effect and would need larger numbers to show.

    The killer with Covid-19 seems not to be the direct effect of the virus, so much as the inflammation of small blood vessels that builds up as the patient gets over the post viral pneumonia phase.

    This seems to be driving the respiratory, renal and circulatory failure that is killing people. Getting an effective treatment for that blood vessel inflammation is where the real impact will be made IMO.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    Scott_xP said:
    Isn't that arrow of causation a bit of a stretch?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,002

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,223
    A couple of papers outline immune evading characteristics of the virus:
    (nb the first is a preprint)

    The ORF8 Protein of SARS-CoV-2 Mediates Immune Evasion through Potently Downregulating MHC-I
    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.24.111823v1.full.pdf
    ... Here, we show that the viral protein encoded from open reading frame 8 (ORF8) of SARS-CoV-2, which shares the least homology with SARS-CoV among all the viral proteins, can directly interact with MHC-I molecules and significantly down-regulates their surface expression on various cell types. In contrast, ORF8a and ORF8b of SARS-CoV do not exert this function. In the ORF8-expressing cells, MHC-I molecules are selectively target for lysosomal degradation by an autophagy-dependent mechanism. As a result, CTLs inefficiently eliminate the ORF8-expressing cells. Our results demonstrate that ORF8 protein disrupts antigen presentation and reduces the recognition and the elimination of virus-infected cells by CTLs...

    Cell entry mechanisms of SARS-CoV-2
    https://www.pnas.org/content/117/21/11727
    ... Here we investigate the receptor binding and protease activations of SARS-CoV-2 spike, using SARS-CoV spike as a comparison. Our results identify important cell entry mechanisms of SARS-CoV-2 that potentially contribute to the immune evasion, cell infectivity, and wide spread of the virus. The findings reconcile conflicting recent reports on cell entry of SARS-CoV-2. By revealing the surprising strategies that SARS-CoV-2 adopts to infect humans while evading immune surveillance, the findings provide insight into possible intervention strategies targeting cell entry of the virus.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,223
    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Isn't that arrow of causation a bit of a stretch?
    It is.

    But on the other hand, the message that those who have respiratory infections should self isolate is an extremely important one, particularly as/when lockdown is lifted.
    Cummings’ actions, and the government’s toleration of them, have seriously blunted that message.

  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    new thread
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,929

    Deep thought: People are talking like Kier Starmer not calling for Cummings to resign is a sign of cunning tactical genius, but maybe it means Kier Starmer knows that someone important on the Labour side broke the lockdown.

    It might be (although the same charge of hypocrisy would not apply since Labour did not impose these regulations). More likely is that SKS knows that a partisan attack would add nothing to the pressure on Cummings, and in fact would ease it by causing DC's Conservative critics, of whom there are many, to rally to his defence if it became a split on party lines.

    In any case, Guido and the papers would be all over it, and they aren't so there isn't.

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,929
    Will Dominic Cummings still be in post on 1st June?

    A slight shift to Cummings resigning, overnight.

    Ladbrokes: 6/4 go, 1/2 stay
    PP/Betfair: 2/5 go, 7/4 stay
    Starsports seems to have taken the market down overnight
This discussion has been closed.