This is massively significant. The Star rarely dabbles in politics because the people who buy it aren't much interested. If it knows that Cummings's antics have cut through to its readership then it will have cut through to everyone. This will probably be the biggest political story of the century.
Of the century? OK.
I'm serious. More people in Britain will have an opinion on Cummings's actions than on any other political story from the last twenty years, possibly even longer. The ubiquity of the implications of COVID-19 are just massive. I'm struggling to think of anything that has had a greater impact on people's lives since WW2.
Is this a joke or have you had a stroke?
Brexit is bigger than Cummings. Loads of stories are bigger than Cummings. You read it here first. Unless you somehow think the Cummings story = the Covid 19 global plague, which is like saying the Chamberlain resignation was the same story as World War 2
COVID-19 isn't a political story per se. But Cumming's actions are a political dimension to that narrative, and so far, for the population of the UK, it's the biggest political dimension that narrative has had. I'd also suggest that more people have a strong opinion of Cummings right now than did over EU membership.
Incorrect. Look at the don't knows in polling on both subjects. Maybe if this story still lead the news in a year you'd have a strong argument
Aside from any moral considerations, can two definitive lists now be made up? One of PB Tories who are instinctively loyal but recognise that Dom is fucking up the party good and proper and the other one of bubble story, folk have already forgotten about it merchants. It'll be useful for gauging whether to pay any attention to posts from members of these 2 cohorts in the future.
You did say Corbyn would be PM and you popped up every day saying the polls weren't showing the true picture and Jezza would be PM. It was a Tory landslide. Is your judgement of sanity fair?
His might not be but mine is. I'm right and you're wrong. Boris is finished.
Aside from any moral considerations, can two definitive lists now be made up? One of PB Tories who are instinctively loyal but recognise that Dom is fucking up the party good and proper and the other one of bubble story, folk have already forgotten about it merchants. It'll be useful for gauging whether to pay any attention to posts from members of these 2 cohorts in the future.
You did say Corbyn would be PM and you popped up every day saying the polls weren't showing the true picture and Jezza would be PM. It was a Tory landslide. Is your judgement of sanity fair?
His might not be but mine is. I'm right and you're wrong. Boris is finished.
This is massively significant. The Star rarely dabbles in politics because the people who buy it aren't much interested. If it knows that Cummings's antics have cut through to its readership then it will have cut through to everyone. This will probably be the biggest political story of the century.
Everyone has been affected by the coronavirus lockdowns, restrictions and the economic fallout. That is why this story is poisoning the government as we watch.
Well put.
Seriously.? The fine for Cummings if the police decided he had broken the lockdown rules was less than £100. And people think it’s a bigger story than 9/11. I’m sure everyone on this site remembers where they were when 9/11 happened. Maybe in 10 years there will be hundreds of videos on the internet of the drive that Cummings took.
You are kind of betting on whether Cummings stays. If he does, a Labour lead at some point would seem inevitable.
Not so sure otherwise, especially if Boris were to move quickly and decisively against Pinnochio.
I'm not sure why Boris showing weakness and giving Starmer a scalp prevents Starmer from getting a lead?
Red Ed had managed multiple poll leads after the same time leading the party as Starmer has had. With another 7 months to go it'd be truly remarkable for Labour not getting a lead at some point.
@Philip_Thompson, you are making the mistake of thinking it is a victory for Cummings to remain in post. It isn't. @MaxPB is absolutely right that projecting "one rule for you lot, another for us" is the wrong message.
Last Friday, Cummings should have apologised "It was the wrong thing to do, especially given my position with the government." Instead he has refused to apologise and claimed he did nothing wrong.
I don't think breaking lockdown, given his family circumstances, was a resigning affair. But I do think his behaviour since has been utterly appalling. Other people - not in positions of power - have made enormous sacrifices to make sure government guidelines were followed.
This isn't about someone "getting a scalp", it is about doing the right thing. When we treat politics as a competition between two sides we forget that what we're supposed to be doing is the best thing for the country. And the best thing for the country is that people admit when they are wrong.
The aggressive pushback may win you a tiny battle, but it erodes confidence in our government and in our system. The country and our democracy, in a small way, is weakened.
I wonder if Starmer is hoping they keep Cummings? He will be a permanent reminder that the New Elite are the same as the Old Elite.
Cummings job checking the polling and focus groups must be great fun at the moment. Who wouldn't want to be a fly on the wall for those?
I'm not convinced he has ever convened any focus groups. I mean, focus groups involve other people expressing their opinions and that would take up valuable time which he could use telling other people what is the one and only objective truth.
Aside from any moral considerations, can two definitive lists now be made up? One of PB Tories who are instinctively loyal but recognise that Dom is fucking up the party good and proper and the other one of bubble story, folk have already forgotten about it merchants. It'll be useful for gauging whether to pay any attention to posts from members of these 2 cohorts in the future.
You did say Corbyn would be PM and you popped up every day saying the polls weren't showing the true picture and Jezza would be PM. It was a Tory landslide. Is your judgement of sanity fair?
His might not be but mine is. I'm right and you're wrong. Boris is finished.
Out as PM? When exactly? We might as well put a date on this certainty, if only for the sake of verifiability after the fact.
Aside from any moral considerations, can two definitive lists now be made up? One of PB Tories who are instinctively loyal but recognise that Dom is fucking up the party good and proper and the other one of bubble story, folk have already forgotten about it merchants. It'll be useful for gauging whether to pay any attention to posts from members of these 2 cohorts in the future.
You did say Corbyn would be PM and you popped up every day saying the polls weren't showing the true picture and Jezza would be PM. It was a Tory landslide. Is your judgement of sanity fair?
His might not be but mine is. I'm right and you're wrong. Boris is finished.
You're wrong and your judgement has been affected by social media IMO. You don't have big polling leads if you're finished
18% one year ago. That's all that needs to be said.
Aside from any moral considerations, can two definitive lists now be made up? One of PB Tories who are instinctively loyal but recognise that Dom is fucking up the party good and proper and the other one of bubble story, folk have already forgotten about it merchants. It'll be useful for gauging whether to pay any attention to posts from members of these 2 cohorts in the future.
You did say Corbyn would be PM and you popped up every day saying the polls weren't showing the true picture and Jezza would be PM. It was a Tory landslide. Is your judgement of sanity fair?
His might not be but mine is. I'm right and you're wrong. Boris is finished.
You are kind of betting on whether Cummings stays. If he does, a Labour lead at some point would seem inevitable.
Not so sure otherwise, especially if Boris were to move quickly and decisively against Pinnochio.
I'm not sure why Boris showing weakness and giving Starmer a scalp prevents Starmer from getting a lead?
Red Ed had managed multiple poll leads after the same time leading the party as Starmer has had. With another 7 months to go it'd be truly remarkable for Labour not getting a lead at some point.
@Philip_Thompson, you are making the mistake of thinking it is a victory for Cummings to remain in post. It isn't. @MaxPB is absolutely right that projecting "one rule for you lot, another for us" is the wrong message.
Last Friday, Cummings should have apologised "It was the wrong thing to do, especially given my position with the government." Instead he has refused to apologise and claimed he did nothing wrong.
I don't think breaking lockdown, given his family circumstances, was a resigning affair. But I do think his behaviour since has been utterly appalling. Other people - not in positions of power - have made enormous sacrifices to make sure government guidelines were followed.
This isn't about someone "getting a scalp", it is about doing the right thing. When we treat politics as a competition between two sides we forget that what we're supposed to be doing is the best thing for the country. And the best thing for the country is that people admit when they are wrong.
The aggressive pushback may win you a tiny battle, but it erodes confidence in our government and in our system. The country and our democracy, in a small way, is weakened.
I wonder if Starmer is hoping they keep Cummings? He will be a permanent reminder that the New Elite are the same as the Old Elite.
Cummings job checking the polling and focus groups must be great fun at the moment. Who wouldn't want to be a fly on the wall for those?
I'm not convinced he has ever convened any focus groups. I mean, focus groups involve other people expressing their opinions and that would take up valuable time which he could use telling other people what is the one and only objective truth.
I think Cummings has minions to sit through the tedious bleatings of the focus groups, but he looks quite carefully at the results.
Johnson is torching everything for Cummings. What the hell is wrong with him? There have to be genuine questions for the Tories to ask about his fitness for office.
Johnson is torching everything for Cummings. What the hell is wrong with him? There have to be genuine questions for the Tories to ask about his fitness for office.
Aside from any moral considerations, can two definitive lists now be made up? One of PB Tories who are instinctively loyal but recognise that Dom is fucking up the party good and proper and the other one of bubble story, folk have already forgotten about it merchants. It'll be useful for gauging whether to pay any attention to posts from members of these 2 cohorts in the future.
You did say Corbyn would be PM and you popped up every day saying the polls weren't showing the true picture and Jezza would be PM. It was a Tory landslide. Is your judgement of sanity fair?
His might not be but mine is. I'm right and you're wrong. Boris is finished.
You're wrong and your judgement has been affected by social media IMO. You don't have big polling leads if you're finished
18% one year ago. That's all that needs to be said.
What social media, I'm not on Twitter or Facebook. The only social media I use is Instagram which is basically normal people.
This has cut through to all of my non-political friends. They are all absolutely seething with rage, these are people who turned out for Boris and Leave as well.
I know I'm right about this and 6% isn't a big lead. I wouldn't be surprised to see that fall further in the next few polls.
Aside from any moral considerations, can two definitive lists now be made up? One of PB Tories who are instinctively loyal but recognise that Dom is fucking up the party good and proper and the other one of bubble story, folk have already forgotten about it merchants. It'll be useful for gauging whether to pay any attention to posts from members of these 2 cohorts in the future.
You did say Corbyn would be PM and you popped up every day saying the polls weren't showing the true picture and Jezza would be PM. It was a Tory landslide. Is your judgement of sanity fair?
His might not be but mine is. I'm right and you're wrong. Boris is finished.
Out as PM? When exactly? We might as well put a date on this certainty, if only for the sake of verifiability after the fact.
I have backed him at all prices to be out by Sep 2021. These things always take longer to play out than we are used to in a 24-hr news cycle world.
Look at Theresa. Obvious from the get go that she was hopeless and that she would be found out but took some time for it to transpire.
Aside from any moral considerations, can two definitive lists now be made up? One of PB Tories who are instinctively loyal but recognise that Dom is fucking up the party good and proper and the other one of bubble story, folk have already forgotten about it merchants. It'll be useful for gauging whether to pay any attention to posts from members of these 2 cohorts in the future.
You did say Corbyn would be PM and you popped up every day saying the polls weren't showing the true picture and Jezza would be PM. It was a Tory landslide. Is your judgement of sanity fair?
His might not be but mine is. I'm right and you're wrong. Boris is finished.
Out as PM? When exactly? We might as well put a date on this certainty, if only for the sake of verifiability after the fact.
I have backed him at all prices to be out by Sep 2021. These things always take longer to play out than we are used to in a 24-hr news cycle world.
Look at Theresa. Obvious from the get go that she was hopeless and that she would be found out but took some time for it to transpire.
Interesting. What odds out of curiosity?
I hope to be at Tory Conference in 2021 with Boris still as PM, which would be past your cut off - it would be my first one post-Cameron.
You are kind of betting on whether Cummings stays. If he does, a Labour lead at some point would seem inevitable.
Not so sure otherwise, especially if Boris were to move quickly and decisively against Pinnochio.
I'm not sure why Boris showing weakness and giving Starmer a scalp prevents Starmer from getting a lead?
Red Ed had managed multiple poll leads after the same time leading the party as Starmer has had. With another 7 months to go it'd be truly remarkable for Labour not getting a lead at some point.
@Philip_Thompson, you are making the mistake of thinking it is a victory for Cummings to remain in post. It isn't. @MaxPB is absolutely right that projecting "one rule for you lot, another for us" is the wrong message.
Last Friday, Cummings should have apologised "It was the wrong thing to do, especially given my position with the government." Instead he has refused to apologise and claimed he did nothing wrong.
I don't think breaking lockdown, given his family circumstances, was a resigning affair. But I do think his behaviour since has been utterly appalling. Other people - not in positions of power - have made enormous sacrifices to make sure government guidelines were followed.
This isn't about someone "getting a scalp", it is about doing the right thing. When we treat politics as a competition between two sides we forget that what we're supposed to be doing is the best thing for the country. And the best thing for the country is that people admit when they are wrong.
The aggressive pushback may win you a tiny battle, but it erodes confidence in our government and in our system. The country and our democracy, in a small way, is weakened.
I agree the way it was managed initially was screwed up. I criticised Boris for clearing Cummings without a detailed explanation and said he should have kicked it into the grass with an independent investigation . . . . not because I thought it needed one, but for the optics.
But I think Cummings done nothing wrong and think he thought and still thinks he's done nothing wrong. I think too much honesty has been the problem. I think the explanation on Sunday was eminently reasonable and listening to him speak about the harrassment of his home just after people were gleefully sharing videos of Led By Donkeys etc outside his home was ironic.
I think there's been legitimate criticism, but also a baying mob and giving in to them is not the right thing.
Aside from any moral considerations, can two definitive lists now be made up? One of PB Tories who are instinctively loyal but recognise that Dom is fucking up the party good and proper and the other one of bubble story, folk have already forgotten about it merchants. It'll be useful for gauging whether to pay any attention to posts from members of these 2 cohorts in the future.
You did say Corbyn would be PM and you popped up every day saying the polls weren't showing the true picture and Jezza would be PM. It was a Tory landslide. Is your judgement of sanity fair?
His might not be but mine is. I'm right and you're wrong. Boris is finished.
Out as PM? When exactly? We might as well put a date on this certainty, if only for the sake of verifiability after the fact.
As I have been saying for weeks: early 2021
His ego is big enough to demand that he does SOMETHING. That will be final deliverance of Brexit on December 31
He has the perfect excuse to go with some grace: ill health from covid (see how he already hints at it, mentioning his eye sight; he might even be right)
After that, government will just be a gruelling slog of cuts and tax hikes. Not what he envisaged. He has a pretty young wife. His memoir will make him millions, Exeunt Boris.
... pursued by grieving widows who didn't hold their husbands hand at the end.
This is massively significant. The Star rarely dabbles in politics because the people who buy it aren't much interested. If it knows that Cummings's antics have cut through to its readership then it will have cut through to everyone. This will probably be the biggest political story of the century.
Everyone has been affected by the coronavirus lockdowns, restrictions and the economic fallout. That is why this story is poisoning the government as we watch.
Well put.
Seriously.? The fine for Cummings if the police decided he had broken the lockdown rules was less than £100. And people think it’s a bigger story than 9/11. I’m sure everyone on this site remembers where they were when 9/11 happened. Maybe in 10 years there will be hundreds of videos on the internet of the drive that Cummings took.
You mean you don't remember when Cummings crashed into the World Trade Centre? Because some people on this thread apparently do
Ian Huntley is better regarded than Cummings. What I hate most about this is the hypocrisy. A large percentage of the British public have broken the lockdown guidance in some way or another. I have by visiting my parents and chatting to them on the driveway, I wasn’t always taking food round. Cummings clearly broke the spirit of the guidance, but he did not do it for personal financial gain or to go on a nice jolly, he clearly panicked and went north. I think it has has been forgotten that he was actually ill. I maybe-in a minority but I find the absurd witch hunt from the press against him is now totally out of hand. There were a number of very important developments today including a treatment for Covid 19 but the press are not interested. They just want to get their man.
Aside from any moral considerations, can two definitive lists now be made up? One of PB Tories who are instinctively loyal but recognise that Dom is fucking up the party good and proper and the other one of bubble story, folk have already forgotten about it merchants. It'll be useful for gauging whether to pay any attention to posts from members of these 2 cohorts in the future.
You did say Corbyn would be PM and you popped up every day saying the polls weren't showing the true picture and Jezza would be PM. It was a Tory landslide. Is your judgement of sanity fair?
His might not be but mine is. I'm right and you're wrong. Boris is finished.
Out as PM? When exactly? We might as well put a date on this certainty, if only for the sake of verifiability after the fact.
As I have been saying for weeks: early 2021
His ego is big enough to demand that he does SOMETHING. That will be final deliverance of Brexit on December 31
He has the perfect excuse to go with some grace: ill health from covid (see how he already hints at it, mentioning his eye sight; he might even be right)
After that, government will just be a gruelling slog of cuts and tax hikes. Not what he envisaged. He has a pretty young wife. His memoir will make him millions, Exeunt Boris.
Blimey, thats bold. Fair dos for nailing your colours to the mast.
Fancy a PB donation spread-wager, £1 a week? Maybe March 31st 2021 as the break even point? E.G. If he ceases to be PM 8 weeks before that, I'll chuck £8 into the PB kitty. If its 8 weeks after, you chuck £8 in, etc etc
Johnson is torching everything for Cummings. What the hell is wrong with him? There have to be genuine questions for the Tories to ask about his fitness for office.
He almost died a few weeks ago, and still looks rather shaken.
Johnson is torching everything for Cummings. What the hell is wrong with him? There have to be genuine questions for the Tories to ask about his fitness for office.
What has Cummings got on Johnson?
Cummings can run a government. Johnson hasn’t got the first idea how & yet has to deliver a functional Brexit in seven months (god help us). Oh, and he’s still in recovery from Covid-19.
This is massively significant. The Star rarely dabbles in politics because the people who buy it aren't much interested. If it knows that Cummings's antics have cut through to its readership then it will have cut through to everyone. This will probably be the biggest political story of the century.
Everyone has been affected by the coronavirus lockdowns, restrictions and the economic fallout. That is why this story is poisoning the government as we watch.
Well put.
Seriously.? The fine for Cummings if the police decided he had broken the lockdown rules was less than £100. And people think it’s a bigger story than 9/11. I’m sure everyone on this site remembers where they were when 9/11 happened. Maybe in 10 years there will be hundreds of videos on the internet of the drive that Cummings took.
You mean you don't remember when Cummings crashed into the World Trade Centre? Because some people on this thread apparently do
Ian Huntley is better regarded than Cummings. What I hate most about this is the hypocrisy. A large percentage of the British public have broken the lockdown guidance in some way or another. I have by visiting my parents and chatting to them on the driveway, I wasn’t always taking food round. Cummings clearly broke the spirit of the guidance, but he did not do it for personal financial gain or to go on a nice jolly, he clearly panicked and went north. I think it has has been forgotten that he was actually ill. I maybe-in a minority but I find the absurd witch hunt from the press against him is now totally out of hand. There were a number of very important developments today including a treatment for Covid 19 but the press are not interested. They just want to get their man.
Good to have another voice for sanity away from the baying mob.
Also for all those that attack me for 2019, how many called 2017 correctly? I bet few did.
I did.
Loads of us did and made money on it. David Herdson wrote a very insightful post on the subject a week before election day. A few of us were warning of a crap result as soon as the dementia tax was leaked and then started making it clearer when the manifesto came out. The key is to take one's own emotions out of the equation, what I want to happen probably isn't actually going to happen is how I view every situation before starting my own analysis. My money, atm, is that Boris and Dom battle on until 2024 and lose to Kier who will get between 310 and 330 seats with a fair number in Scotland and Wales. A few days ago I had Boris on between 330 and 350 seats.
This has completely changed the dynamic of the next election
A main headline that cops confirm don't drive whilst blind - as absurd a thing to have to say as "don't drink bleach". Govey on LBC trying to claim he'd done it but unable to complete the sentence as he knew how absurd it was can't have helped.
To it's left? Dom and Dumber subhead. And above? A cut out and keep "do whatever the hell you want and sod everyone else" mask. "Can't be arsed to stick to the rules? Wear this and get away with murder"
Jesus. If he quits the story turns to why the PM and the cabinet have such horrendous judgement that they couldn't see what even Daily star reading morons can see. If he doesn't quit imagine what's to come next. PM is fucked either way now.
Johnson is torching everything for Cummings. What the hell is wrong with him? There have to be genuine questions for the Tories to ask about his fitness for office.
What has Cummings got on Johnson?
Who knows. There is so much he could have.
More likely is that Johnson is one of those PMs who finds that having climbed to the top he is overwhelmed by the job. Most PMs say they had no idea how crushing the job is until they got it.
He literally cannot face it without his little helper.
You are kind of betting on whether Cummings stays. If he does, a Labour lead at some point would seem inevitable.
Not so sure otherwise, especially if Boris were to move quickly and decisively against Pinnochio.
I'm not sure why Boris showing weakness and giving Starmer a scalp prevents Starmer from getting a lead?
Red Ed had managed multiple poll leads after the same time leading the party as Starmer has had. With another 7 months to go it'd be truly remarkable for Labour not getting a lead at some point.
@Philip_Thompson, you are making the mistake of thinking it is a victory for Cummings to remain in post. It isn't. @MaxPB is absolutely right that projecting "one rule for you lot, another for us" is the wrong message.
Last Friday, Cummings should have apologised "It was the wrong thing to do, especially given my position with the government." Instead he has refused to apologise and claimed he did nothing wrong.
I don't think breaking lockdown, given his family circumstances, was a resigning affair. But I do think his behaviour since has been utterly appalling. Other people - not in positions of power - have made enormous sacrifices to make sure government guidelines were followed.
This isn't about someone "getting a scalp", it is about doing the right thing. When we treat politics as a competition between two sides we forget that what we're supposed to be doing is the best thing for the country. And the best thing for the country is that people admit when they are wrong.
The aggressive pushback may win you a tiny battle, but it erodes confidence in our government and in our system. The country and our democracy, in a small way, is weakened.
I agree the way it was managed initially was screwed up. I criticised Boris for clearing Cummings without a detailed explanation and said he should have kicked it into the grass with an independent investigation . . . . not because I thought it needed one, but for the optics.
But I think Cummings done nothing wrong and think he thought and still thinks he's done nothing wrong. I think too much honesty has been the problem. I think the explanation on Sunday was eminently reasonable and listening to him speak about the harrassment of his home just after people were gleefully sharing videos of Led By Donkeys etc outside his home was ironic.
I think there's been legitimate criticism, but also a baying mob and giving in to them is not the right thing.
You really don't think breaking the government's own guidelines was wrong?
Understandable in the circumstances, sure. But one of the government's most senior advisors broke the rules.
A simply apology was enough, because (as I keep saying) this isn't a hanging or resigning offence. But to deny that what you did was worthy of censure is astonishing, breathtaking arrogance.
Also for all those that attack me for 2019, how many called 2017 correctly? I bet few did.
I did.
You correctly called that Corbyn would lose and remain opposition leader?
Kudos if so.
I said it would be a Hung Parliament with the Tories the largest party, with no overall majority. Few people predicted that.
I got 2019 wrong, happy to say that.
But I also got Peterborough right, Starmer as leader, Johnson as leader, EU Elections.
My record genuinely isn't that bad - I get I have no respect around these parts and I don't care about that but like I have said before, PB Tories give but they cannot take it.
Aside from any moral considerations, can two definitive lists now be made up? One of PB Tories who are instinctively loyal but recognise that Dom is fucking up the party good and proper and the other one of bubble story, folk have already forgotten about it merchants. It'll be useful for gauging whether to pay any attention to posts from members of these 2 cohorts in the future.
You did say Corbyn would be PM and you popped up every day saying the polls weren't showing the true picture and Jezza would be PM. It was a Tory landslide. Is your judgement of sanity fair?
His might not be but mine is. I'm right and you're wrong. Boris is finished.
Out as PM? When exactly? We might as well put a date on this certainty, if only for the sake of verifiability after the fact.
I have backed him at all prices to be out by Sep 2021. These things always take longer to play out than we are used to in a 24-hr news cycle world.
Look at Theresa. Obvious from the get go that she was hopeless and that she would be found out but took some time for it to transpire.
Interesting. What odds out of curiosity?
I hope to be at Tory Conference in 2021 with Boris still as PM, which would be past your cut off - it would be my first one post-Cameron.
From 6s (Jul - Sep this year) upwards. It's all on bf.
But we shouldn't get too blinded by the Cummings disaster in isolation. It wasn't going well before that, and it was always going to go even more badly as the reality of Covid-19 works through the economy, and the looming disaster of the Brexit negotiations comes into view. I'm not surprised of course; it has been clear for years that Boris Johnson is unfit for high office, which the Conservative Party knew as well as anyone. Unfortunately they deliberately chose to forget it.
Meanwhile Labour now has a sane, plausible, and decent leader, and will gradually build up a broad, credible front-bench. Already it is possible for a sensible person of integrity to support them again.
With one factor pushing people away from the Conservatives, and the other pulling them back to Labour, we can expect further shifts in the polls. It's hardly a complicated calculation.
Also for all those that attack me for 2019, how many called 2017 correctly? I bet few did.
I did.
Loads of us did and made money on it. David Herdson wrote a very insightful post on the subject a week before election day. A few of us were warning of a crap result as soon as the dementia tax was leaked and then started making it clearer when the manifesto came out. The key is to take one's own emotions out of the equation, what I want to happen probably isn't actually going to happen is how I view every situation before starting my own analysis. My money, atm, is that Boris and Dom battle on until 2024 and lose to Kier who will get between 310 and 330 seats with a fair number in Scotland and Wales. A few days ago I had Boris on between 330 and 350 seats.
This has completely changed the dynamic of the next election
I'm never allowed to get the respect you get, because I am not a Tory.
For what it's worth, I completely agree with your post and I do just that when I bet. But I wouldn't get the same hearing if I wrote exactly the same thing.
Also for all those that attack me for 2019, how many called 2017 correctly? I bet few did.
I did.
Loads of us did and made money on it. David Herdson wrote a very insightful post on the subject a week before election day. A few of us were warning of a crap result as soon as the dementia tax was leaked and then started making it clearer when the manifesto came out. The key is to take one's own emotions out of the equation, what I want to happen probably isn't actually going to happen is how I view every situation before starting my own analysis. My money, atm, is that Boris and Dom battle on until 2024 and lose to Kier who will get between 310 and 330 seats with a fair number in Scotland and Wales. A few days ago I had Boris on between 330 and 350 seats.
This has completely changed the dynamic of the next election
I'm never allowed to get the respect you get, because I am not a Tory.
For what it's worth, I completely agree with your post and I do just that when I bet. But I wouldn't get the same hearing if I wrote exactly the same thing.
Perhaps try making a post like that and see what happens, rather than attacking PB Tories in every other one.
This is massively significant. The Star rarely dabbles in politics because the people who buy it aren't much interested. If it knows that Cummings's antics have cut through to its readership then it will have cut through to everyone. This will probably be the biggest political story of the century.
Everyone has been affected by the coronavirus lockdowns, restrictions and the economic fallout. That is why this story is poisoning the government as we watch.
Well put.
Seriously.? The fine for Cummings if the police decided he had broken the lockdown rules was less than £100. And people think it’s a bigger story than 9/11. I’m sure everyone on this site remembers where they were when 9/11 happened. Maybe in 10 years there will be hundreds of videos on the internet of the drive that Cummings took.
You mean you don't remember when Cummings crashed into the World Trade Centre? Because some people on this thread apparently do
Ian Huntley is better regarded than Cummings. What I hate most about this is the hypocrisy. A large percentage of the British public have broken the lockdown guidance in some way or another. I have by visiting my parents and chatting to them on the driveway, I wasn’t always taking food round. Cummings clearly broke the spirit of the guidance, but he did not do it for personal financial gain or to go on a nice jolly, he clearly panicked and went north. I think it has has been forgotten that he was actually ill. I maybe-in a minority but I find the absurd witch hunt from the press against him is now totally out of hand. There were a number of very important developments today including a treatment for Covid 19 but the press are not interested. They just want to get their man.
Remember: Cummings didn’t just break lockdown, he broke the requirement to self-isolate on suspected infection. His actions risked others contracting Covid-19 & could have directly resulted in more deaths.
This is far more serious than just breaking lockdown regulations.
Aside from any moral considerations, can two definitive lists now be made up? One of PB Tories who are instinctively loyal but recognise that Dom is fucking up the party good and proper and the other one of bubble story, folk have already forgotten about it merchants. It'll be useful for gauging whether to pay any attention to posts from members of these 2 cohorts in the future.
You did say Corbyn would be PM and you popped up every day saying the polls weren't showing the true picture and Jezza would be PM. It was a Tory landslide. Is your judgement of sanity fair?
His might not be but mine is. I'm right and you're wrong. Boris is finished.
Out as PM? When exactly? We might as well put a date on this certainty, if only for the sake of verifiability after the fact.
I have backed him at all prices to be out by Sep 2021. These things always take longer to play out than we are used to in a 24-hr news cycle world.
Look at Theresa. Obvious from the get go that she was hopeless and that she would be found out but took some time for it to transpire.
Interesting. What odds out of curiosity?
I hope to be at Tory Conference in 2021 with Boris still as PM, which would be past your cut off - it would be my first one post-Cameron.
Also, finally, I will not be renewing my party membership next month which I'm sure will thrill the likes of you and some other supposed Tories on here.
I can't be a member of a party which lies and dissembles so much. The review of all fines related to travelling for childcare issues was just beyond insulting.
Let's stop talking about Cummings and talk about how to lift the lockdown instead.
No
Cummings has lifted the lockdown in two ways.
1) Johnson is rushing forward all manner of unlocking stuff in order to try an deflect attention. The whole staged process with traffic lights has gone right out of the window. No wonder the CMO hasn't been seen for days.
2) No one is listening to a bloody word they say now about social distancing, not going to the beach, keeping away from friends, barbecues etc etc. The neighbours around me have all had people trooping in and out the last three days like the whole thing never happened.
I think Cummings should absolutely stay - and I suspect he will now. His arrogance knows no bounds.
Sadly, for the first time I think he might go now. Hopefully, I’m wrong. If he does, though, he’ll leave behind a severely weakened Prime Minister.
You think he will see the polls and be inclined to resign?
I can't see him resigning, Johnson sacking him I see as a distinct possibility.
I've stayed out of betting on the outcome for that very reason.
I did the other day, I was immediately replied with "well you would say that", blah blah blah.
It's fine, I'm not an even playing field and I knew that when I joined. Pro-Tory site is something I much prefer over a Labour echo chamber such as Reddit etc
Aside from any moral considerations, can two definitive lists now be made up? One of PB Tories who are instinctively loyal but recognise that Dom is fucking up the party good and proper and the other one of bubble story, folk have already forgotten about it merchants. It'll be useful for gauging whether to pay any attention to posts from members of these 2 cohorts in the future.
You did say Corbyn would be PM and you popped up every day saying the polls weren't showing the true picture and Jezza would be PM. It was a Tory landslide. Is your judgement of sanity fair?
His might not be but mine is. I'm right and you're wrong. Boris is finished.
Out as PM? When exactly? We might as well put a date on this certainty, if only for the sake of verifiability after the fact.
As I have been saying for weeks: early 2021
His ego is big enough to demand that he does SOMETHING. That will be final deliverance of Brexit on December 31
He has the perfect excuse to go with some grace: ill health from covid (see how he already hints at it, mentioning his eye sight; he might even be right)
After that, government will just be a gruelling slog of cuts and tax hikes. Not what he envisaged. He has a pretty young wife. His memoir will make him millions, Exeunt Boris.
Blimey, thats bold. Fair dos for nailing your colours to the mast.
Fancy a PB donation spread-wager, £1 a week? Maybe March 31st 2021 as the break even point? E.G. If he ceases to be PM 8 weeks before that, I'll chuck £8 into the PB kitty. If its 8 weeks after, you chuck £8 in, etc etc
Betting just makes my eyes glaze over. What's the most I could lose or win? I mean if Boris stayed ten years that's £500 I lose, or something?
Something like that - but its not going to be you or I winning either way - PB is the winner!
Actually I think both Johnson and Cummings should take 6 months off and return when everyone's talking about other things. I've been saying that for a few days.
Aside from any moral considerations, can two definitive lists now be made up? One of PB Tories who are instinctively loyal but recognise that Dom is fucking up the party good and proper and the other one of bubble story, folk have already forgotten about it merchants. It'll be useful for gauging whether to pay any attention to posts from members of these 2 cohorts in the future.
You did say Corbyn would be PM and you popped up every day saying the polls weren't showing the true picture and Jezza would be PM. It was a Tory landslide. Is your judgement of sanity fair?
His might not be but mine is. I'm right and you're wrong. Boris is finished.
Out as PM? When exactly? We might as well put a date on this certainty, if only for the sake of verifiability after the fact.
I have backed him at all prices to be out by Sep 2021. These things always take longer to play out than we are used to in a 24-hr news cycle world.
Look at Theresa. Obvious from the get go that she was hopeless and that she would be found out but took some time for it to transpire.
Interesting. What odds out of curiosity?
I hope to be at Tory Conference in 2021 with Boris still as PM, which would be past your cut off - it would be my first one post-Cameron.
Also, finally, I will not be renewing my party membership next month which I'm sure will thrill the likes of you and some other supposed Tories on here.
I can't be a member of a party which lies and dissembles so much. The review of all fines related to travelling for childcare issues was just beyond insulting.
Also for all those that attack me for 2019, how many called 2017 correctly? I bet few did.
I did.
Loads of us did and made money on it. David Herdson wrote a very insightful post on the subject a week before election day. A few of us were warning of a crap result as soon as the dementia tax was leaked and then started making it clearer when the manifesto came out. The key is to take one's own emotions out of the equation, what I want to happen probably isn't actually going to happen is how I view every situation before starting my own analysis. My money, atm, is that Boris and Dom battle on until 2024 and lose to Kier who will get between 310 and 330 seats with a fair number in Scotland and Wales. A few days ago I had Boris on between 330 and 350 seats.
This has completely changed the dynamic of the next election
David Herdson backtracked on that post the next day, though no one mentions that
You are kind of betting on whether Cummings stays. If he does, a Labour lead at some point would seem inevitable.
Not so sure otherwise, especially if Boris were to move quickly and decisively against Pinnochio.
I'm not sure why Boris showing weakness and giving Starmer a scalp prevents Starmer from getting a lead?
Red Ed had managed multiple poll leads after the same time leading the party as Starmer has had. With another 7 months to go it'd be truly remarkable for Labour not getting a lead at some point.
@Philip_Thompson, you are making the mistake of thinking it is a victory for Cummings to remain in post. It isn't. @MaxPB is absolutely right that projecting "one rule for you lot, another for us" is the wrong message.
Last Friday, Cummings should have apologised "It was the wrong thing to do, especially given my position with the government." Instead he has refused to apologise and claimed he did nothing wrong.
I don't think breaking lockdown, given his family circumstances, was a resigning affair. But I do think his behaviour since has been utterly appalling. Other people - not in positions of power - have made enormous sacrifices to make sure government guidelines were followed.
This isn't about someone "getting a scalp", it is about doing the right thing. When we treat politics as a competition between two sides we forget that what we're supposed to be doing is the best thing for the country. And the best thing for the country is that people admit when they are wrong.
The aggressive pushback may win you a tiny battle, but it erodes confidence in our government and in our system. The country and our democracy, in a small way, is weakened.
I agree the way it was managed initially was screwed up. I criticised Boris for clearing Cummings without a detailed explanation and said he should have kicked it into the grass with an independent investigation . . . . not because I thought it needed one, but for the optics.
But I think Cummings done nothing wrong and think he thought and still thinks he's done nothing wrong. I think too much honesty has been the problem. I think the explanation on Sunday was eminently reasonable and listening to him speak about the harrassment of his home just after people were gleefully sharing videos of Led By Donkeys etc outside his home was ironic.
I think there's been legitimate criticism, but also a baying mob and giving in to them is not the right thing.
You really don't think breaking the government's own guidelines was wrong?
Understandable in the circumstances, sure. But one of the government's most senior advisors broke the rules.
A simply apology was enough, because (as I keep saying) this isn't a hanging or resigning offence. But to deny that what you did was worthy of censure is astonishing, breathtaking arrogance.
No I don't, not if there's exceptional circumstances which I genuinely think there were. I liked the answer of Hancock today saying he was on stage six weeks ago when the DCMO said that childcare was an exceptional issue.
If he'd gone for a party or something completely flippant then it'd be outrageous. For the interests of a child it is not.
As I said, I think too much honesty has been the issue. I think an apology would have smoothed things, but an apology when you don't accept you've done anything wrong is a lie.
I don't often post, but I've had a couple of glasses of a decent red tonight, so WTF.
Can you tell me, all those people that are calling for Cummings to resign, were you as angry and vociferous about Stephen Kinnock or Kevan Jones? How about Tahir Ali and Vaughn Gething? What about Leo Varadkar? No doubt there are many more that I have missed out.
Do I think Cummings was mistaken in the actions that he took, probably yes.
But FFS, let's be clear, this is not about the rights and wrongs of his actions. Unless you made the same angry criticism about those other political figures, it's about where you sit with your own political views (please don't bring in Brexit although I am sure that is also colouring some views).
Go ahead, repost and retweet some politically biased persons 'tremendously insightful' or 'funny' Twitter comment. That won't persuade anyone with a brain, one way or the other (but it might make you feel good)
When newspapers and TV stations bang on about "the ordinary people will feel they don't have to follow the rules", are they encouraging good behaviour or are they behaving irresponsibly in an attempt to make a few coins. Are they contributing to the solution or the problem?
I'm old enough to remember when our media reported news rather than went for "gotcha" moments. These last few months have seen the fourth estate lose their marbles completely.
This is massively significant. The Star rarely dabbles in politics because the people who buy it aren't much interested. If it knows that Cummings's antics have cut through to its readership then it will have cut through to everyone. This will probably be the biggest political story of the century.
Everyone has been affected by the coronavirus lockdowns, restrictions and the economic fallout. That is why this story is poisoning the government as we watch.
Well put.
Seriously.? The fine for Cummings if the police decided he had broken the lockdown rules was less than £100. And people think it’s a bigger story than 9/11. I’m sure everyone on this site remembers where they were when 9/11 happened. Maybe in 10 years there will be hundreds of videos on the internet of the drive that Cummings took.
You mean you don't remember when Cummings crashed into the World Trade Centre? Because some people on this thread apparently do
The Tuesday of 9/11 was utterly shocking. I remember going to rugby training that evening at it seemed absolutely surreal to be chucking a ball about - no one could really concentrate on it. But life went rapidly back to normal - indeed it never really stopped being all that normal in London. Only four weeks later England, qualified for the World Cup after Beckham equalised against Greece in the last minute. Such ephemera was the biggest story in London that day less than a month after the Twin Towers collapsed. Closer to home, four years later, on 7/7, I cycled home after the office was evacuated, watched an Eng v Aus ODI on TV and we were soon to have an amazing Ashes summer while the Piccadilly and Metropolitan Lines were patched up.
Conversely, Covid-19 and related issues have utterly dominated everyone’s lives for getting on for three months now. No sport to distract us. Nothing. It has impacted absolutely everyone and dominated all our lives. That is why public opinion is so united on this specific issue and why it “cuts through” so much if someone in authority is perceived not to have been following the rules.
Also for all those that attack me for 2019, how many called 2017 correctly? I bet few did.
I did.
Loads of us did and made money on it. David Herdson wrote a very insightful post on the subject a week before election day. A few of us were warning of a crap result as soon as the dementia tax was leaked and then started making it clearer when the manifesto came out. The key is to take one's own emotions out of the equation, what I want to happen probably isn't actually going to happen is how I view every situation before starting my own analysis. My money, atm, is that Boris and Dom battle on until 2024 and lose to Kier who will get between 310 and 330 seats with a fair number in Scotland and Wales. A few days ago I had Boris on between 330 and 350 seats.
This has completely changed the dynamic of the next election
David Herdson backtracked on that post the next day, though no one mentions that
Of course they don't - and I follow David and have no qualms saying he writes good stuff - but there's a narrative on this board and if you go against it, you get pummelled.
It's the same for right-wingers on Reddit, they get downvoted to oblivion. It's one of the reasons I left, because I'd much rather argue with people I disagree with.
Also for all those that attack me for 2019, how many called 2017 correctly? I bet few did.
I did.
Few were as persistent in ramping as you though.
BluestBlue is just as persistent as me now, except of course you turn a blind eye to that because he's on your team.
But that's ok, PB Tories never are consistent.
Ahem, I wasn't making up utter shit that the polling was completely wrong in 2019.
You're saying the polling is utter shit now though.
You're a hypocrite and any sensible person can see it.
I said the polls had been wrong in 2017, which many were. In 2019 they got it right - I acknowledged that.
As I said, hypocrite.
At no point have I said that the polling is wrong now, and I defy you to quote me.
What I have said consistently is that we should not govern based on short-term polls with an election 4 years away.
Now that I think about it however, since we have had precisely two polls today covering the lockdown period - Survation with a 13% lead, and YouGov with a 6% lead - a certain degree of scepticism about the current polling would seem merited. If they are both 'true', all that tells us is that public opinion is volatile at the moment, as one would expect.
Johnson is torching everything for Cummings. What the hell is wrong with him? There have to be genuine questions for the Tories to ask about his fitness for office.
I believe the calculation in Government is this:
1) The British public weren't going to accept lockdown for long - which is why the Government was so reluctant to bring it in in the first place - and eventually there was going to be a crisis point where all the repressed frustration was released
2) By chance, the crisis point was a story about Dominic Cummings. It could have been Robert Jenrick or even Johnson's trip to Chequers, but Cummings fell in the 2 month sweet spot where people were really getting upset
3) The frustration is not going to go away just because the focus of the frustration goes away. If Cummings is sacked, people will still be pissed off. They'll just redirect that anger towards other people in Government
4) So sacking Cummings won't calm the anger, and the lesson the press will learn is that if they stir up the anger even more they can get bigger scalps, which will damage the Government more and more until they face the press down and demonstrate that they won't give in to media pressure
I don't often post, but I've had a couple of glasses of a decent red tonight, so WTF.
Can you tell me, all those people that are calling for Cummings to resign, were you as angry and vociferous about Stephen Kinnock or Kevan Jones? How about Tahir Ali and Vaughn Gething? What about Leo Varadkar? No doubt there are many more that I have missed out.
Do I think Cummings was mistaken in the actions that he took, probably yes.
But FFS, let's be clear, this is not about the rights and wrongs of his actions. Unless you made the same angry criticism about those other political figures, it's about where you sit with your own political views (please don't bring in Brexit although I am sure that is also colouring some views).
Go ahead, repost and retweet some politically biased persons 'tremendously insightful' or 'funny' Twitter comment. That won't persuade anyone with a brain, one way or the other (but it might make you feel good)
When newspapers and TV stations bang on about "the ordinary people will feel they don't have to follow the rules", are they encouraging good behaviour or are they behaving irresponsibly in an attempt to make a few coins. Are they contributing to the solution or the problem?
I'm old enough to remember when our media reported news rather than went for "gotcha" moments. These last few months have seen the fourth estate lose their marbles completely.
Enough, back to the Paulliac
Good choice. I've been sorely tempted to open the cases of 2015 En Primeur Margaux and Pomerol that @rcs1000 very kindly tipped as a good pre-Brexit buy a few years ago....but so far have resisted.
Totally off topic, but I'd be interested to hear if others' concentration span has been totally shot by the pandemic and associated lockdown? I can do physical work like packing, but anything involving more complex thinking - and especially writing - is painfully slow at present. Very unnerving.
Agreed. I managed to draft a reasonably detailed document this morning, nothing spectacular, but was (metaphorically) patting myself on the back all day. In the office it would have been NBD
I’m writing more than ever - and drawing detailed house and garden plans, which I enjoy. Being creative - in a small way - is lovely.
Talking of which, I bought some pots and some plants: peonies, polemonium, heuchera and agapanthus and put them outside the doors.
And the darling little lambs, 2 in particular, and their mama, have just eaten most of the buds off them. For God’s sake! As if squirrels and slug weren’t bad enough! It’s not as if there aren’t acres of grass all over the hills.
They’ve become bolder and bolder. Any day now I expect them to be in our living-room chomping their way through everything like Shaun the Sheep.
Aside from any moral considerations, can two definitive lists now be made up? One of PB Tories who are instinctively loyal but recognise that Dom is fucking up the party good and proper and the other one of bubble story, folk have already forgotten about it merchants. It'll be useful for gauging whether to pay any attention to posts from members of these 2 cohorts in the future.
You did say Corbyn would be PM and you popped up every day saying the polls weren't showing the true picture and Jezza would be PM. It was a Tory landslide. Is your judgement of sanity fair?
His might not be but mine is. I'm right and you're wrong. Boris is finished.
Out as PM? When exactly? We might as well put a date on this certainty, if only for the sake of verifiability after the fact.
I have backed him at all prices to be out by Sep 2021. These things always take longer to play out than we are used to in a 24-hr news cycle world.
Look at Theresa. Obvious from the get go that she was hopeless and that she would be found out but took some time for it to transpire.
Interesting. What odds out of curiosity?
I hope to be at Tory Conference in 2021 with Boris still as PM, which would be past your cut off - it would be my first one post-Cameron.
Also, finally, I will not be renewing my party membership next month which I'm sure will thrill the likes of you and some other supposed Tories on here.
I can't be a member of a party which lies and dissembles so much. The review of all fines related to travelling for childcare issues was just beyond insulting.
I finished watching 'The Last Dance' last night, so had a gap in my prosecco and popcorn viewing schedule. By chance I recorded highlights of The Arsenal's championship winning victory of 1989 from itv the other day so popped that on... and it happens to be exactly 31 years ago to the day that the momentous occasion took place!
Also for all those that attack me for 2019, how many called 2017 correctly? I bet few did.
I did.
Few were as persistent in ramping as you though.
BluestBlue is just as persistent as me now, except of course you turn a blind eye to that because he's on your team.
But that's ok, PB Tories never are consistent.
Ahem, I wasn't making up utter shit that the polling was completely wrong in 2019.
You're saying the polling is utter shit now though.
You're a hypocrite and any sensible person can see it.
I said the polls had been wrong in 2017, which many were. In 2019 they got it right - I acknowledged that.
As I said, hypocrite.
At no point have I said that the polling is wrong now, and I defy you to quote me.
What I have said consistently is that we should not govern based on short-term polls with an election 4 years away.
Now that I think about it however, since we have had precisely two polls today covering the lockdown period - Survation with a 13% lead, and YouGov with a 6% lead - a certain degree of scepticism about the current polling would seem merited. If they are both 'true', all that tells us is that public opinion is volatile at the moment, as one would expect.
The problem is, you act like you're an impartial source or somehow speaking truth when the fact of the matter is you are just as rampant as me, just from a right-wing position.
I really enjoy talking to you, because it's like a mirror image.
Anything to stop them asking Cummings about his fucking eyesight test method and his blog revising and his 4 1/2 hour drive without a toilet break and the lack of a single person to help with childcare in a city of eight million where your wife works for a leading magazine and the child care regulations that were revised the day the Guardian phoned and the blue bell wood and the phone call from the father and... etc etc etc.
I wouldn't be surprised if we aren't announcing a UK manned mission to Mars by Friday.
Yes, that's...strange. Surrey is one of the 11 pilot areas for track and trace. Borough councils are supposed to help, and we have just been contacted. We're supposed to be operational the day after tomorrow?? This is like that "Go back to work tomorrow morning" thing.
BoZo did rather unwisely commit to Track and Trace being in place and "world leading" by Monday.
Yep. Seems set up to fail once again. Starmer is beginning to grow on me a little. He is clever enough to not interrupt an enemy making a mistake. At present that means keeping fairly quiet and letting the Tories stew.
Tis a pity though. Track and Trace could have been quite a step forward if Isolation wasn't a laughing stock.
Away from Dumbings for a moment and the Remdesivir story on the Guardian and Times front pages looks promising.
A mitigation in recovery time will make a large difference I should think?
Also for all those that attack me for 2019, how many called 2017 correctly? I bet few did.
I did.
I wouldn’t worry. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. Trawl the predictions of anyone on here and they’ll have some clangers hidden away.
Comments
Incorrect. Look at the don't knows in polling on both subjects. Maybe if this story still lead the news in a year you'd have a strong argument
https://twitter.com/EmporersNewC/status/1265403850116169734
I say keep him there.
18% one year ago. That's all that needs to be said.
The bit he misses out is that those people don’t rate him either
This has cut through to all of my non-political friends. They are all absolutely seething with rage, these are people who turned out for Boris and Leave as well.
I know I'm right about this and 6% isn't a big lead. I wouldn't be surprised to see that fall further in the next few polls.
Boris is finished. He's absolutely fucked it
Look at Theresa. Obvious from the get go that she was hopeless and that she would be found out but took some time for it to transpire.
I did.
Bet you it would be more than 20% if you polled it
I hope to be at Tory Conference in 2021 with Boris still as PM, which would be past your cut off - it would be my first one post-Cameron.
But that's ok, PB Tories never are consistent.
"Too honourable for his own good."
Cummings has single-handedly put Labour right back in the game in the space of 4 short days. He's the gift that keeps on giving.
What I hate most about this is the hypocrisy. A large percentage of the British public have broken the lockdown guidance in some way or another. I have by visiting my parents and chatting to them on the driveway, I wasn’t always taking food round. Cummings clearly broke the spirit of the guidance, but he did not do it for personal financial gain or to go on a nice jolly, he clearly panicked and went north. I think it has has been forgotten that he was actually ill. I maybe-in a minority but I find the absurd witch hunt from the press against him is now totally out of hand. There were a number of very important developments today including a treatment for Covid 19 but the press are not interested. They just want to get their man.
Kudos if so.
But the government has forced us all (NB: not all) to be at home so it's like silly season on steroids.
Everyone is sitting by the radio or television listening to it all and hence have a view. Because it is the only thing that is happening right now.
No sport, no soaps, no anything. Just Dom.
Fancy a PB donation spread-wager, £1 a week? Maybe March 31st 2021 as the break even point? E.G. If he ceases to be PM 8 weeks before that, I'll chuck £8 into the PB kitty. If its 8 weeks after, you chuck £8 in, etc etc
That’s what Cummings has on Johnson.
You're a hypocrite and any sensible person can see it.
I said the polls had been wrong in 2017, which many were. In 2019 they got it right - I acknowledged that.
As I said, hypocrite.
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1265385466079195136/photo/1
This has completely changed the dynamic of the next election
A main headline that cops confirm don't drive whilst blind - as absurd a thing to have to say as "don't drink bleach". Govey on LBC trying to claim he'd done it but unable to complete the sentence as he knew how absurd it was can't have helped.
To it's left? Dom and Dumber subhead. And above? A cut out and keep "do whatever the hell you want and sod everyone else" mask. "Can't be arsed to stick to the rules? Wear this and get away with murder"
Jesus. If he quits the story turns to why the PM and the cabinet have such horrendous judgement that they couldn't see what even Daily star reading morons can see. If he doesn't quit imagine what's to come next. PM is fucked either way now.
More likely is that Johnson is one of those PMs who finds that having climbed to the top he is overwhelmed by the job. Most PMs say they had no idea how crushing the job is until they got it.
He literally cannot face it without his little helper.
Understandable in the circumstances, sure. But one of the government's most senior advisors broke the rules.
A simply apology was enough, because (as I keep saying) this isn't a hanging or resigning offence. But to deny that what you did was worthy of censure is astonishing, breathtaking arrogance.
I got 2019 wrong, happy to say that.
But I also got Peterborough right, Starmer as leader, Johnson as leader, EU Elections.
My record genuinely isn't that bad - I get I have no respect around these parts and I don't care about that but like I have said before, PB Tories give but they cannot take it.
But we shouldn't get too blinded by the Cummings disaster in isolation. It wasn't going well before that, and it was always going to go even more badly as the reality of Covid-19 works through the economy, and the looming disaster of the Brexit negotiations comes into view. I'm not surprised of course; it has been clear for years that Boris Johnson is unfit for high office, which the Conservative Party knew as well as anyone. Unfortunately they deliberately chose to forget it.
Meanwhile Labour now has a sane, plausible, and decent leader, and will gradually build up a broad, credible front-bench. Already it is possible for a sensible person of integrity to support them again.
With one factor pushing people away from the Conservatives, and the other pulling them back to Labour, we can expect further shifts in the polls. It's hardly a complicated calculation.
Off to criticise anyone else for having the temerity to cook, are we?
For what it's worth, I completely agree with your post and I do just that when I bet. But I wouldn't get the same hearing if I wrote exactly the same thing.
Get real news.
I can't see him resigning, Johnson sacking him I see as a distinct possibility.
I've stayed out of betting on the outcome for that very reason.
This is far more serious than just breaking lockdown regulations.
I can't be a member of a party which lies and dissembles so much. The review of all fines related to travelling for childcare issues was just beyond insulting.
1) Johnson is rushing forward all manner of unlocking stuff in order to try an deflect attention. The whole staged process with traffic lights has gone right out of the window. No wonder the CMO hasn't been seen for days.
2) No one is listening to a bloody word they say now about social distancing, not going to the beach, keeping away from friends, barbecues etc etc. The neighbours around me have all had people trooping in and out the last three days like the whole thing never happened.
It's fine, I'm not an even playing field and I knew that when I joined. Pro-Tory site is something I much prefer over a Labour echo chamber such as Reddit etc
Incidentally, I'd be fascinated to know if there actually have been any fines issued for genuine childcare issues...
If he'd gone for a party or something completely flippant then it'd be outrageous. For the interests of a child it is not.
As I said, I think too much honesty has been the issue. I think an apology would have smoothed things, but an apology when you don't accept you've done anything wrong is a lie.
Can you tell me, all those people that are calling for Cummings to resign, were you as angry and vociferous about Stephen Kinnock or Kevan Jones? How about Tahir Ali and Vaughn Gething? What about Leo Varadkar? No doubt there are many more that I have missed out.
Do I think Cummings was mistaken in the actions that he took, probably yes.
But FFS, let's be clear, this is not about the rights and wrongs of his actions. Unless you made the same angry criticism about those other political figures, it's about where you sit with your own political views (please don't bring in Brexit although I am sure that is also colouring some views).
Go ahead, repost and retweet some politically biased persons 'tremendously insightful' or 'funny' Twitter comment. That won't persuade anyone with a brain, one way or the other (but it might make you feel good)
When newspapers and TV stations bang on about "the ordinary people will feel they don't have to follow the rules", are they encouraging good behaviour or are they behaving irresponsibly in an attempt to make a few coins. Are they contributing to the solution or the problem?
I'm old enough to remember when our media reported news rather than went for "gotcha" moments. These last few months have seen the fourth estate lose their marbles completely.
Enough, back to the Paulliac
Conversely, Covid-19 and related issues have utterly dominated everyone’s lives for getting on for three months now. No sport to distract us. Nothing. It has impacted absolutely everyone and dominated all our lives. That is why public opinion is so united on this specific issue and why it “cuts through” so much if someone in authority is perceived not to have been following the rules.
It's the same for right-wingers on Reddit, they get downvoted to oblivion. It's one of the reasons I left, because I'd much rather argue with people I disagree with.
What I have said consistently is that we should not govern based on short-term polls with an election 4 years away.
Now that I think about it however, since we have had precisely two polls today covering the lockdown period - Survation with a 13% lead, and YouGov with a 6% lead - a certain degree of scepticism about the current polling would seem merited. If they are both 'true', all that tells us is that public opinion is volatile at the moment, as one would expect.
1) The British public weren't going to accept lockdown for long - which is why the Government was so reluctant to bring it in in the first place - and eventually there was going to be a crisis point where all the repressed frustration was released
2) By chance, the crisis point was a story about Dominic Cummings. It could have been Robert Jenrick or even Johnson's trip to Chequers, but Cummings fell in the 2 month sweet spot where people were really getting upset
3) The frustration is not going to go away just because the focus of the frustration goes away. If Cummings is sacked, people will still be pissed off. They'll just redirect that anger towards other people in Government
4) So sacking Cummings won't calm the anger, and the lesson the press will learn is that if they stir up the anger even more they can get bigger scalps, which will damage the Government more and more until they face the press down and demonstrate that they won't give in to media pressure
Talking of which, I bought some pots and some plants: peonies, polemonium, heuchera and agapanthus and put them outside the doors.
And the darling little lambs, 2 in particular, and their mama, have just eaten most of the buds off them. For God’s sake! As if squirrels and slug weren’t bad enough! It’s not as if there aren’t acres of grass all over the hills.
They’ve become bolder and bolder. Any day now I expect them to be in our living-room chomping their way through everything like Shaun the Sheep.
And no I've no idea but just to announce it to me was just mind boggling. And wasn't it then contradicted soon after by Sunak? Which makes it worse.
It's up for grabs noooooow!!! Oh happy days
I really enjoy talking to you, because it's like a mirror image.
A mitigation in recovery time will make a large difference I should think?
I am not calling for this however as Cineworld have given me one of their gigantic sacks of popcorn
The Conservative Party have lost control of West Devon Council, following the resignation of a councillor due to Dominic Cummings' Durham fiasco.
Council Now: CON 15, IND 13, GRN 2, LDM 1
Conservative LOSE to NOC.