Burgessian said:

Carnyx said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Carnyx said:

TGOHF666 said:

Sturgeon confirms Scotland wont have a track and trace app.


Carrier pigeon to send messages next ?

Going for a more traditional tracing scheme with real people running it instead.

Using human alone is too slow. You need to be testing and results within 24hrs and then immediately alerting all those at risk straight away, so they can be tested.

That is how South Korea keep this thing under control.

During the initial stages of the outbreak, the UK government did a decent job of contact tracing, but manually interviewing everybody takes days just for a small outbreak. You can't win the battle like that.

FrancisUrquhart said:

TGOHF666 said:

Sturgeon confirms Scotland wont have a track and trace app.


Carrier pigeon to send messages next ?

I would have thought they would have just used the Google / Apple API, to be able to say to UK government, see this is how it is done.

Seems a big misstep from Sturgeon not to have any app. Every other developed country is.

What happens now when the UK government finally goes for the Google / Apple one, and it works in every country in Europe, but Scotland.

Points noted.

The problem might be that unlike all other countries Scotland can't control its border but has the "UK" - ie Johnsonian England - doing it for it, so it can't stop incomers and make them load the app.

Also, if Scotland goes for the G/A system, and the English system is still rolled out, the Scottish Gmt will be accused of wasting money on an incompatible system, and that incompatibility will become much more of a problem as travel increases.

So arguably forced to wait and see - and, indeed, perhaps, as you say, go for the G/A system when the "UK" Gmt does.

The irony is that while Sturgeon is getting stellar polling the Scottish performance is pretty poor, especially around care homes and their predilection for doing some things differently with no benefit. But being more cautious with respect to lockdown has struck a public nerve even if ultimately it could be harmful for the economy. But politically the SNP are definitely benefiting from Covid.

The trouble comes for them once they start easing. Locking down is easy, opening back up is hard.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1265261486366167043?s=20

NorthofStoke said:

The Chris Huhne reference has given me an idea. Is there anyway that Cummings can give a sworn statement so that he his guilty of perjury if it is proven to be false?

No, because this isn't (as yet) before the courts. Perjury is basically only an offence in judicial proceedings.

I also don't really see the point. If there are important factual points in his story that are later proven to be false, he's a goner.

But that's unlikely - however ludicrous the Barnard Bridge eye test explanation was, for example, it's not clear what "evidence" would disprove it easily (short of a family member breaking ranks, as indeed undid Huhne).

Morris_Dancer said:

Media scrum does indeed look ugly. Also saw some Sky twerp seeking out Cummings' parents. Not an edifying spectacle.

I agree but it is sadly a feature of our society and it happens to anyone in the news, there is nothing particularly horrific or unique about the way Cummings has been treated.

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1265268539868528647?s=20

Will he have to go HYUFD?

dixiedean said:

Malmesbury said:

RobD said:

@Malmesbury very promising figures.

We are definitely in a long tail. Looks like London is rapidly running out of cases. The other regions are tailing off more slowly, it seems.

Difficult to see any obvious reason why the NE should be declining so much slower than London.

If it were acquired immunity, one would expect the north-east to be declining fastest of all.

I suppose the weather does tend to be a few degrees warmer in London?

Burgessian said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Burgessian said:

Thought.
There is a tendency by some to dismiss Cummingsgate as a Westminster bubble story. I really don't think it is.
The coronavirus pandemic is very unusual in that it has affected everyone. It's a shared experience. Will be long-remembered.
Boris was rather fortunate (politically) in contracting it. He evidently thinks this has bullet-proofed him.
But Dom has removed the bullet-proof vest.
And now backbench (and even frontbench) support is haemorrhaging.
He needs to act fast and get Cummings to resign.
It's difficult to predict what will happen if he doesn't but the momentum does not appear to have abated as they must have hoped.

Boris could have easily spun this to his advantage, clear decisive leadership, play on having had it, how it important collective action, how thanks to nation we are winning...and still had Cummings back in a few months.

Agree. If Cummings had gone immediately there might even have been a modicum of sympathy. A dad doing what he thought was right for his family but accepting that the optics are terrible and that he doesn't want to be a distraction to the health messaging. And then, a few months down the line, back in Number 10. Sturgeon tried to hang on to Calderwood - they even had a joint presser - but had to give her up eventually. Doesn't have to be damaging.

It didn't even require that - all that was required was for Cummings to resign and Boris to reject it due to current circumstances - we need to restart the economy and I don't want to lose anyone would have been enough.

This mess is completely self inflicted.

Scott_xP said:

The first cabinet minister to call for Cummings head could be the next PM

Do any of them have the gumption?

Patel?

The Mail have gone in 2 footed on Douglas Ross, calling him a remainer and 'Mr Nobody'. I feel like not only are people growing tired of the media onslaught but a lot of Tories who were angry with Cummings now feel the matter is settled.


I doubt Mr Ross' career will be going far now. Would have made more sense to resign 2 days ago.

Monkeys said:

Pulpstar said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Burgessian said:

Thought.
There is a tendency by some to dismiss Cummingsgate as a Westminster bubble story. I really don't think it is.
The coronavirus pandemic is very unusual in that it has affected everyone. It's a shared experience. Will be long-remembered.
Boris was rather fortunate (politically) in contracting it. He evidently thinks this has bullet-proofed him.
But Dom has removed the bullet-proof vest.
And now backbench (and even frontbench) support is haemorrhaging.
He needs to act fast and get Cummings to resign.
It's difficult to predict what will happen if he doesn't but the momentum does not appear to have abated as they must have hoped.

Boris could have easily spun this to his advantage, clear decisive leadership, play on having had it, how it important collective action, how thanks to nation we are winning...and still had Cummings back in a few months.

That's the bizarre thing, even with Cummings 'officially' gone he could have had him back
Once, twice, three times like Mandy.
It's what I expected to happen in fact.

People placing comparisons with Mandy or Campbell don't really get that he isn't remotely doing the same job that Mandy or Campbell did. They just wanted Labour to win. Cummings has a plan for something, a set of ideas about how he thinks things should be. We don't know the first thing about what Mandelson really believed, and it wasn't important.

Are you suggesting Johnson is so dreadfully inept he can't run the country without him for a bit ?

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1265273556830531584

dixiedean said:

Malmesbury said:

RobD said:

@Malmesbury very promising figures.

We are definitely in a long tail. Looks like London is rapidly running out of cases. The other regions are tailing off more slowly, it seems.

Difficult to see any obvious reason why the NE should be declining so much slower than London.

The obvious reason is that somehow London has reached a higher and significant level of immunity. The mystery is that what data there is hasn’t so far thrown up any evidence.

Pulpstar said:

Monkeys said:

Pulpstar said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Burgessian said:

Thought.
There is a tendency by some to dismiss Cummingsgate as a Westminster bubble story. I really don't think it is.
The coronavirus pandemic is very unusual in that it has affected everyone. It's a shared experience. Will be long-remembered.
Boris was rather fortunate (politically) in contracting it. He evidently thinks this has bullet-proofed him.
But Dom has removed the bullet-proof vest.
And now backbench (and even frontbench) support is haemorrhaging.
He needs to act fast and get Cummings to resign.
It's difficult to predict what will happen if he doesn't but the momentum does not appear to have abated as they must have hoped.

Boris could have easily spun this to his advantage, clear decisive leadership, play on having had it, how it important collective action, how thanks to nation we are winning...and still had Cummings back in a few months.

That's the bizarre thing, even with Cummings 'officially' gone he could have had him back
Once, twice, three times like Mandy.
It's what I expected to happen in fact.

People placing comparisons with Mandy or Campbell don't really get that he isn't remotely doing the same job that Mandy or Campbell did. They just wanted Labour to win. Cummings has a plan for something, a set of ideas about how he thinks things should be. We don't know the first thing about what Mandelson really believed, and it wasn't important.

Are you suggesting Johnson is so dreadfully inept he can't run the country without him for a bit ?

No, that's nothing to do with my point. I'm saying that Cummings is performing radically different actions to the actions of Mandelson or Campbell. It's not just that they would never go against the media the way Dominic did yesterday, it's that that was their entire job description - keep the media onside.

Dominic isn't interested in the media, he thinks they're outdated. It's a different job spec.

UK supercar maker and Formula 1 team McLaren plans to cut more than a quarter of its workforce after the coronavirus crisis hit sales and advertising revenue.

IanB2 said:

dixiedean said:

Malmesbury said:

RobD said:

@Malmesbury very promising figures.

We are definitely in a long tail. Looks like London is rapidly running out of cases. The other regions are tailing off more slowly, it seems.

Difficult to see any obvious reason why the NE should be declining so much slower than London.

The obvious reason is that somehow London has reached a higher and significant level of immunity. The mystery is that what data there is hasn’t so far thrown up any evidence.

The point is that the highest percentages of confirmed cases are now in the north-east, not London.

Typically brutal

https://twitter.com/MarinaHyde/status/1265273172347281414

Scott_xP said:

The first cabinet minister to call for Cummings head could be the next PM

Do any of them have the gumption?

Nope, because they'd have to resign to go against the collective line in public.

Unless cabinet ministers do start resigning, this story will slowly lose traction despite the media desperation to keep it running.

FrancisUrquhart said:

https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1265272126531088384?s=19

I`ve asked this a couple of times before, I know, but why on earth aren`t the government communicating the extraordinary success of getting 900 p/d deaths at peak (NHS England only) down to sub 150, perhaps now even 100?

Folk don`t know this. Some I`ve asked think the deaths are still going up. We have to "un-scare" people.

FrancisUrquhart said:

If Cummings does go after all this, I don't see how Boris can stay long term. Mr Yorkshire Tea could have the fastest promotion from nobody to PM in history.

John Major was pretty fast. Although whether he remained a nobody whilst PM is open to question.

Brom said:

The Mail have gone in 2 footed on Douglas Ross, calling him a remainer and 'Mr Nobody'. I feel like not only are people growing tired of the media onslaught but a lot of Tories who were angry with Cummings now feel the matter is settled.


I doubt Mr Ross' career will be going far now. Would have made more sense to resign 2 days ago.

No, he has the potential to go a long way. Would be SCon leader if he'd stayed at Holyrood. An effective debater and a world away from the traditional Scots Tory MP profile - big hoose, advocate, public school etc.

Scott_xP said:

I had forgotten this

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1265232970585116673

Legally, that was a really interesting feature of the case - albeit not the sort of thing to cut through to the general public.

What made the case unwinnable is that the Government case relied ONLY on prorogation being non-justiciable (which was absolutely crackers legally and never stood a chance).

They did not even make an argument that, even if it was justiciable, the Government acted within its very wide discretion by doing it. Because nobody at all in Government (from the PM down) was willing to sign a statement simply confirming the publicly stated justification was the truth. That limb was one which MIGHT have succeeded but not one person would perjure themselves (which is almost admirable in a twisted way).

IanB2 said:

dixiedean said:

Malmesbury said:

RobD said:

@Malmesbury very promising figures.

We are definitely in a long tail. Looks like London is rapidly running out of cases. The other regions are tailing off more slowly, it seems.

Difficult to see any obvious reason why the NE should be declining so much slower than London.

The obvious reason is that somehow London has reached a higher and significant level of immunity. The mystery is that what data there is hasn’t so far thrown up any evidence.

That isn't obvious to me. I think a more general version is obviously true: the faster decline in London is because there is a greater difference in conditions between London today, and London on, say, March 1st, than there is in the North East of England between the equivalent time periods. But what is that difference? It could be that London saw many more infections, and has thus greater immunity. But it could also be that London's default pattern of human interaction involves millions of people using the Tube every day, and they're currently not doing that, so the behaviour shift in London is greater than it is in the NE.

As a general point, behavioural changes are equivalent to changes in biological immunity, so anything that could be attributed to a shift in immunity levels could, in principle, be attributed to a shift in behaviour patterns. In both cases, it's also important to remember what the baseline level was.

This is not to say that you are wrong, just that there are other explanations which might fit the same facts, sufficient that we can't call a specific narrative "obvious".

IanB2 said:

dixiedean said:

Malmesbury said:

RobD said:

@Malmesbury very promising figures.

We are definitely in a long tail. Looks like London is rapidly running out of cases. The other regions are tailing off more slowly, it seems.

Difficult to see any obvious reason why the NE should be declining so much slower than London.

The obvious reason is that somehow London has reached a higher and significant level of immunity. The mystery is that what data there is hasn’t so far thrown up any evidence.

Demographics? London has a younger, fitter, slimmer population than the North East. I would hazard a guess as that’s why we are shrugging it off.

Socky said:

No one on the left understands Mrs T's no such thing as society speech.

The meaning is pretty damn clear any time you choose to compare the UK's housing market, public education system and public health service with any of our peers in western Europe.

rjk said:

IanB2 said:

dixiedean said:

Malmesbury said:

RobD said:

@Malmesbury very promising figures.

We are definitely in a long tail. Looks like London is rapidly running out of cases. The other regions are tailing off more slowly, it seems.

Difficult to see any obvious reason why the NE should be declining so much slower than London.

The obvious reason is that somehow London has reached a higher and significant level of immunity. The mystery is that what data there is hasn’t so far thrown up any evidence.

That isn't obvious to me. I think a more general version is obviously true: the faster decline in London is because there is a greater difference in conditions between London today, and London on, say, March 1st, than there is in the North East of England between the equivalent time periods. But what is that difference? It could be that London saw many more infections, and has thus greater immunity. But it could also be that London's default pattern of human interaction involves millions of people using the Tube every day, and they're currently not doing that, so the behaviour shift in London is greater than it is in the NE.

As a general point, behavioural changes are equivalent to changes in biological immunity, so anything that could be attributed to a shift in immunity levels could, in principle, be attributed to a shift in behaviour patterns. In both cases, it's also important to remember what the baseline level was.

This is not to say that you are wrong, just that there are other explanations which might fit the same facts, sufficient that we can't call a specific narrative "obvious".

It is the absolute difference in conditions that is most pertinent here.