As I mentioned yesterday, and I'm sure many others did, the Conservatives will never recover from this. The honeymoon is well and truly over.
Those heady days of high approval ratings are at an end. The new northern tory MPs will begin to finger their shirt collars nervously.
It's over. This isn't hyperbole. As Black Wednesday demonstrated, it only takes one catastrophic day to blow the people's trust for a generation.
If the Tories get -1% at the next election, ie they get 49.5% of the vote and all other parties combined get 50.5% of the vote, I'd be absolutely delighted!
I’m surprised that anybody, four years out, unaware of how the pandemic plays out, or what the eventual impact on the economy will be, with no idea of how the government will perform and no idea of what policies will be proposed knows how they are going to vote. If you do then you are a tribal loyalist more interested in the brand than performance, sad really.
I think most of us on this site have a very good idea how we will vote.
Possibly less than usual. I don't know how I'll vote at the next election: it depends who the Lib Dems elect as the next leader and how Starmer performs. It's vanishingly unlikely to be the Conservatives, though, I'll grant you that.
If his supporters turn on him it'd be news. That Labour voters are no longer supporting him isn't news.
I've got many tory friends who are absolutely incandescent. They feel that they and others sacrificed almost everything and their leadership have taken them for complete fools.
You should follow Cummings' example and get out more.
Then your Tory friends are - to put it politely - obtuse. One man driving to Durham had fuck all effect on the efficacy of the national lockdown, as proven by the statistics demonstrating the, er, efficacy of the national lockdown. Their sacrifices are worth precisely as much as they always were, which is a hell of a lot.
As I mentioned yesterday, and I'm sure many others did, the Conservatives will never recover from this. The honeymoon is well and truly over.
Those heady days of high approval ratings are at an end. The new northern tory MPs will begin to finger their shirt collars nervously.
It's over. This isn't hyperbole. As Black Wednesday demonstrated, it only takes one catastrophic day to blow the people's trust for a generation.
If the Tories get -1% at the next election, ie they get 49.5% of the vote and all other parties combined get 50.5% of the vote, I'd be absolutely delighted!
I’m surprised that anybody, four years out, unaware of how the pandemic plays out, or what the eventual impact on the economy will be, with no idea of how the government will perform and no idea of what policies will be proposed knows how they are going to vote. If you do then you are a tribal loyalist more interested in the brand than performance, sad really.
I think most of us on this site have a very good idea how we will vote.
Exactly, blind faith based on prejudice and preconceptions of the alternatives. As I say sad and lacking in any kind of rigorous analysis of what’s on offer.
As I mentioned yesterday, and I'm sure many others did, the Conservatives will never recover from this. The honeymoon is well and truly over.
Those heady days of high approval ratings are at an end. The new northern tory MPs will begin to finger their shirt collars nervously.
It's over. This isn't hyperbole. As Black Wednesday demonstrated, it only takes one catastrophic day to blow the people's trust for a generation.
If the Tories get -1% at the next election, ie they get 49.5% of the vote and all other parties combined get 50.5% of the vote, I'd be absolutely delighted!
I’m surprised that anybody, four years out, unaware of how the pandemic plays out, or what the eventual impact on the economy will be, with no idea of how the government will perform and no idea of what policies will be proposed knows how they are going to vote. If you do then you are a tribal loyalist more interested in the brand than performance, sad really.
I think most of us on this site have a very good idea how we will vote.
4 years hence - not a blooming clue how I would vote. It will depend on the leadership of the party and the manifesto.
Big Dom goes Saturday morning, Boris comes out and shows leadership, says can't have one rule for one, another for the rest, so important to stick to the advice, know from personal experience how evil this virus is, feel for all those affected, and btw deaths down, hospital admissions down, shops open in a couple of weeks..
Result would be no hit to ratings and other than twitter / guardian nobody caring about the weird bald bloke who got the sack.
3 months later, weird bald bloke comes back.
I'd go further. I think if he had just apologised for an error of judgment, saying that even though no laws were breached, he regretted his actions as being in retrospect inadvisable for a person in his position, this would be over (bar the usual suspects) by now.
Not sure I agree. Whatever the rights and wrongs, appearances count. If a media with little else to do ‘got their man’ this would become the norm for the remainder of the parliament. Boris had an impossible choice - authority damaged (albeit in different ways) whether DC sacked or not.
If people are pissed about an advisor breaking the rules, wait until they find out that furloughed really means sacked with a long notice period.
I predict a load of people are going to enjoy the summer, spend their wages like they are going back to work in September, then get a very nasty shock. And they won't be blaming themselves for this.
7.5 million on furlough?
My guess something like
4.5 million return to status quo 1.5 million return with lower pay and or less hours 1.5 million extra unemployed
Obviously not all, but a significant proportion are not going back to the same job on the same wages / hours. And I don't think most people have realised this. More of the mindset this is a temporary thing, vaccine in the autumn, everything back to way it was in time for Christmas. And the government will get the blame.
Do people really not realise that if they work for an airline or a restaurant things might not go back to normal? Im not having that.
By my unscientific finger in the air method the Tory party has just shifted 3m votes from their column into the undecided column. It's literally all to play for for Labour now. If Boris is still there in 2024 I could see Labour getting very close to a majority or even a working majority atm.
It's going to be a very long 4 years for the party if they don't dump Boris.
He's one of the sensible ones, who's said absolutely nothing on the subject and appears to be getting on with his day-job on the Science Committee.
He's commented on it on Facebook (there's more, but this is the key bit):
So I hugely welcome the fact that Mr Cummings has today given a full account – it is worth reading* if you missed the press conference – and has been extensively questioned by the media about it. It clearly would have been much better if his explanation had been given earlier: that is the least people deserve.
Personally, I do not think that I would have made the same decision that Mr Cummings did. However I recognise the stress that he was under, especially given his concern for the security of his family home. And, as a father myself, I do understand his desire to make sure that appropriate emergency provision for his son was in place.
Finally, I want to highlight that I do not believe in trial by media, and in particular I have found the scenes outside Dominic Cummings’ house concerning. This mob mentality appears to have migrated from social media, especially Twitter. It is also apparent that many media figures have taken sides in this debate based on having a prior axe to grind – in particular over Brexit or the 2019 General Election. I would rather treat each case on its merits.
If people are pissed about an advisor breaking the rules, wait until they find out that furloughed really means sacked with a long notice period.
I predict a load of people are going to enjoy the summer, spend their wages like they are going back to work in September, then get a very nasty shock. And they won't be blaming themselves for this.
The hit is going to start on the 1st August, when firms will have to start paying 20% or more of furloughed workers' salary, irrespective of sector (if the reports are accurate). There is no way a business in a sector where turnover has dropped to near-zero can afford to pay even that - many are desperately struggling with unavoidable expenses as it is.
It seems mad to me that the Chancellor isn't taking into account the differential extent of the lockdown by sector. It rather negates the point of the government paying for furlough to start with if the jobs are going to go on 1st August anyway.
If his supporters turn on him it'd be news. That Labour voters are no longer supporting him isn't news.
I've got many tory friends who are absolutely incandescent. They feel that they and others sacrificed almost everything and their leadership have taken them for complete fools.
You should follow Cummings' example and get out more.
Then your Tory friends are - to put it politely - obtuse. One man driving to Durham had fuck all effect on the efficacy of the national lockdown, as proven by the statistics demonstrating the, er, efficacy of the national lockdown. Their sacrifices are worth precisely as much as they always were, which is a hell of a lot.
Stats here on the efficacy of the lockdown show a massive drop in number worried this weekend.
Even if it's true that less worry = compromised lockdown (which is not necessarily clear), then all it proves is that the Guardian and Mirror caused it to be compromised. It is surely incontrovertible that had they not conducted their hit-job, confidence in the lockdown would be higher, would it not?
As I mentioned yesterday, and I'm sure many others did, the Conservatives will never recover from this. The honeymoon is well and truly over.
Those heady days of high approval ratings are at an end. The new northern tory MPs will begin to finger their shirt collars nervously.
It's over. This isn't hyperbole. As Black Wednesday demonstrated, it only takes one catastrophic day to blow the people's trust for a generation.
When all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.
And when the only referent in your political toolbox is 'Black Wednesday OMG!', then everything looks like Black Wednesday.
What about all the political scandals that looked big at the time, but _didn't_ turn out to be Black Wednesday? Some critical thinking, please.
Black Wednesday was not a political scandal. The reason Black Wednesday was significant is that it said to voters who had faced enormous hardships through high interest rates, losing their jobs and even their homes, that it was all for nothing; the government had mugged them off.
The parallel now is not that Dominic Cummings broke the rules and got away with it. The parallel is that in doing so, and condoned by the Prime Minister, it says to everyone who has made sacrifices and endured hardships that they are fools. That is why this is so dangerous for the government.
If you can think of another situation like this, what is it?
If people are pissed about an advisor breaking the rules, wait until they find out that furloughed really means sacked with a long notice period.
I predict a load of people are going to enjoy the summer, spend their wages like they are going back to work in September, then get a very nasty shock. And they won't be blaming themselves for this.
7.5 million on furlough?
My guess something like
4.5 million return to status quo 1.5 million return with lower pay and or less hours 1.5 million extra unemployed
Obviously not all, but a significant proportion are not going back to the same job on the same wages / hours. And I don't think most people have realised this. More of the mindset this is a temporary thing, vaccine in the autumn, everything back to way it was in time for Christmas. And the government will get the blame.
Do people really not realise that if they work for an airline or a restaurant things might not go back to normal? Im not having that.
People don't like to entertain the idea of the worst possible outcome, especially when the government keep spinning the Oxford vaccine stuff. I bet most furloughed workers will convince themselves they won't be the ones effected, will be either fine or be somebody else.
If his supporters turn on him it'd be news. That Labour voters are no longer supporting him isn't news.
I've got many tory friends who are absolutely incandescent. They feel that they and others sacrificed almost everything and their leadership have taken them for complete fools.
You should follow Cummings' example and get out more.
Then your Tory friends are - to put it politely - obtuse. One man driving to Durham had fuck all effect on the efficacy of the national lockdown, as proven by the statistics demonstrating the, er, efficacy of the national lockdown. Their sacrifices are worth precisely as much as they always were, which is a hell of a lot.
Stats here on the efficacy of the lockdown show a massive drop in number worried this weekend.
Even if it's true that less worry = compromised lockdown (which is not necessarily clear), then all it proves is that the Guardian and Mirror caused it to be compromised. It is surely incontrovertible that had they not conducted their hit-job, confidence in the lockdown would be higher, would it not?
Yes I agree, if the public did not know that Cummings drove 350 miles whilst thinking he was likely infected with a deadly virus, then the public would be more observant of lockdown rules.
I tried to ignore the commentary on here, and watched Dom’s testimony last night.
A strong performance, and the story he offered up was at least consistent. It’s enough to stop the fire.
According to the women watching with me he was struggling to hold back his anger at times, but I didn’t see that especially.
However, I didn’t believe him. Largely because the Barnard Castle story is so farcical.
SIXTY MILES (there and back) on his WIFE’S BIRTHDAY to test his eyesight? No unbiased observer can believe that.
Once you realise he has lied on this point, it brings into question his whole account.
Even more alarming to me is Boris’s new announcements, seemingly timed in order to bounce Dom off the front page.
Why didn’t he announce these on Sunday?
Is it because lockdown policy is now following a timetable designed to save Boris’s skin?
Please don’t tell me we are “following the science”.
Let’s see a poll. I hope that a larger percentage of the British public now sees Boris as the waffling charlatan that he always was.
I thought he managed his speech very well, but there were times during questions where he was struggling not to snap.
And agree about the announcements; almost seems a change of policy.
To be fair to the PM, the change of policy was always going to be this week, with start of June the target date for the implementation.
The announcements were possibly brought forward by a couple of days but that would probably actually be better as it gives businesses more time to adapt.
I don't see any evidence in the data that the 'unlocking' already made around the world has led to any statistical uptick in case numbers in those countries that are well clear of their peaks. If this continues, pressure to move more quickly will only grow.
Yet another example of a "super spreader". The R number will, in my view, prove to be a completely meaningless average. It is an average between the majority who are barely infectious at all outwith the extended proximity of their own family and a few, for reasons we don't yet understand, who can infect hundreds with minimal contact. The latter are the key to controlling the spread of the virus. We need to be able to trace and isolate them fast.
That's true - to control spread you need to identify those [people|actions] that spread the most. But R isn't supposed to do that, it's a measure of the overall situation and the lumpiness is irrelevant for that. If R > 1 then trouble ahead (how quickly depending how much > 1). If R < 1 then things are going to get better.
R is a useful measure of what it measures. It might be that R doesn't do what you'd like it to do. It's a bit like saying GDP growth figures are useless to assess the economy because even in a recession there are some people making fortunes.
But getting the R number down is all about controlling the super spreaders and really pretty irrelevant to what the rest of us do. It is not a justification for the current regulations.
Yes, but in the absence of 'controlling the super spreaders' the blanket approach (adjusted by looking at what it does to Rt) is all we have.
The tracking apps, if they work, will tell us a lot more about the how and (possibly, if there is a who in terms of demographics of those more likely to spread) the who.
Do we have any analysis yet of the relative impact of 'super spreaders' (however defined) compared to everyone else? I haven't seen anything but would be very interested.
Well, there's this:
Full genome viral sequences inform patterns of SARS-CoV-2 spread into and within Israel https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.21.20104521v1 Full genome sequences are increasingly used to track the geographic spread and transmission dynamics of viral pathogens. Here, with a focus on Israel, we sequenced 212 SARS-CoV-2 sequences and use them to perform a comprehensive analysis to trace the origins and spread of the virus. A phylogenetic analysis including thousands of globally sampled sequences allowed us to infer multiple independent introductions into Israel, followed by local transmission. Returning travelers from the U.S. contributed dramatically more to viral spread relative to their proportion in incoming infected travelers. Using phylodynamic analysis, we estimated that the basic reproduction number of the virus was initially around ~2.0-2.6, dropping by two-thirds following the implementation of social distancing measures. A comparison between reported and model-estimated case numbers indicated high levels of transmission heterogeneity in SARS-CoV-2 spread, with between 1-10% of infected individuals resulting in 80% of secondary infections. Overall, our findings underscore the ability of this virus to efficiently transmit between and within countries, as well as demonstrate the effectiveness of social distancing measures for reducing its spread...
That's interesting, thank you. Encouraging potentially for the contact tracing systems.
By my unscientific finger in the air method the Tory party has just shifted 3m votes from their column into the undecided column. It's literally all to play for for Labour now. If Boris is still there in 2024 I could see Labour getting very close to a majority or even a working majority atm.
It's going to be a very long 4 years for the party if they don't dump Boris.
Yes, of course they should dump their best election winner in 32 years over a single incident. Remember when Boris' prorogation was overturned? When he expelled 20 MPs from his own party, was in deep minority, and faced a die-in-a-ditch deadline within weeks?
The received wisdom was that he was finished then too. It is comically lacking in perspective to believe that he is finished now with a majority of 80, Labour 163 seats behind, and 4 years to plan strategy for the next election.
As I mentioned yesterday, and I'm sure many others did, the Conservatives will never recover from this. The honeymoon is well and truly over.
Those heady days of high approval ratings are at an end. The new northern tory MPs will begin to finger their shirt collars nervously.
It's over. This isn't hyperbole. As Black Wednesday demonstrated, it only takes one catastrophic day to blow the people's trust for a generation.
When all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.
And when the only referent in your political toolbox is 'Black Wednesday OMG!', then everything looks like Black Wednesday.
What about all the political scandals that looked big at the time, but _didn't_ turn out to be Black Wednesday? Some critical thinking, please.
Black Wednesday was not a political scandal. The reason Black Wednesday was significant is that it said to voters who had faced enormous hardships through high interest rates, losing their jobs and even their homes, that it was all for nothing; the government had mugged them off.
The parallel now is not that Dominic Cummings broke the rules and got away with it. The parallel is that in doing so, and condoned by the Prime Minister, it says to everyone who has made sacrifices and endured hardships that they are fools. That is why this is so dangerous for the government.
If you can think of another situation like this, what is it?
Peter Mandelson and his revolving door in and out of cabinet . Pick your own scandal.
He's commented on it on Facebook (there's more, but this is the key bit):
So I hugely welcome the fact that Mr Cummings has today given a full account – it is worth reading* if you missed the press conference – and has been extensively questioned by the media about it. It clearly would have been much better if his explanation had been given earlier: that is the least people deserve.
Personally, I do not think that I would have made the same decision that Mr Cummings did. However I recognise the stress that he was under, especially given his concern for the security of his family home. And, as a father myself, I do understand his desire to make sure that appropriate emergency provision for his son was in place.
Finally, I want to highlight that I do not believe in trial by media, and in particular I have found the scenes outside Dominic Cummings’ house concerning. This mob mentality appears to have migrated from social media, especially Twitter. It is also apparent that many media figures have taken sides in this debate based on having a prior axe to grind – in particular over Brexit or the 2019 General Election. I would rather treat each case on its merits.
One thing that concerns me in retrospect about the herd immunity strategy that the Government were apparently following until mid-March was that no-one was saying anything about the issue that all other coronaviruses have a tendency to have infection-induced-immunity wear off.
The four common cold coronaviruses: you start being susceptible to reinfection in 3-6 months. SARS, which is much more serious and triggers a much greater immune reaction, seems to start wearing off immunity-wise in about 2 years.
So if this is mid-way between them, and we failed to get a vaccine, we'd be vulnerable to be hit by it every year on average.
That's not an attractive option, really.
Sweden went for herd immunity and failed. Stockholm's antibody rate is far lower than London's and yet the deaths per million is also lower than ours.
Why??
The only logical explanation comes from professor Gupta at Oxford. There is a large reservoir of people for whom Corona is simply not a thing. They have immunity through genes or being exposed to other viruses.
You have only to read about incident in America where nearly 90% of the members of a choir were infected to see that's not the case.
Actually that doesn't negate the Gupta thesis as the choir may not have been a representative sample of the overall population. Data is still messy, we are still in the fog of war.
By my unscientific finger in the air method the Tory party has just shifted 3m votes from their column into the undecided column. It's literally all to play for for Labour now. If Boris is still there in 2024 I could see Labour getting very close to a majority or even a working majority atm.
It's going to be a very long 4 years for the party if they don't dump Boris.
I can't see how Boris makes it another 4 years. I can see Tory party pushing him out and spinning it as him going having never fully recovered from coronavirus.
As I mentioned yesterday, and I'm sure many others did, the Conservatives will never recover from this. The honeymoon is well and truly over.
Those heady days of high approval ratings are at an end. The new northern tory MPs will begin to finger their shirt collars nervously.
It's over. This isn't hyperbole. As Black Wednesday demonstrated, it only takes one catastrophic day to blow the people's trust for a generation.
When all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.
And when the only referent in your political toolbox is 'Black Wednesday OMG!', then everything looks like Black Wednesday.
What about all the political scandals that looked big at the time, but _didn't_ turn out to be Black Wednesday? Some critical thinking, please.
Black Wednesday, Poll Tax etc were significant failures of actual government policies.
This is some process story about movements of an advisor during a natural disaster - it's not even close to the same scale, but has been amplified by a bored media who really don't like the guy and wanted a scalp, and are now even more annoyed that they're not going to get it!
If they wanted him sacked, they should have run the story at the height of the lockdown period, either at the time it happened or as soon as the PM was back at his desk. It's still unclear why they didn't do that, and why even after six weeks the Guardian's initial headline was so blatantly untrue.
The story of whether or not the PM sacked his advisor is not going to feature in the news four years from now. It's probably going to be next week's chip wrapping as everyone moves on to shops and schools re-opening.
"The pandemic has brought panic to the once-confident ranks of urbanists promoting city density. At a time when even the New York Times is noticing that density and transit pose serious health risks for any potential re-opening, such people attack their critics as “anti-urbanist” or “sprawl lovers” or “urban gadflies.” Preferring theology over data, some advocate ever-greater density and crowding in cities and mass transit."
By my unscientific finger in the air method the Tory party has just shifted 3m votes from their column into the undecided column. It's literally all to play for for Labour now. If Boris is still there in 2024 I could see Labour getting very close to a majority or even a working majority atm.
It's going to be a very long 4 years for the party if they don't dump Boris.
I can't see how Boris makes it another 4 years.
I agree. Not as confident as I was a day ago that he will go within a few weeks.
If people are pissed about an advisor breaking the rules, wait until they find out that furloughed really means sacked with a long notice period.
I predict a load of people are going to enjoy the summer, spend their wages like they are going back to work in September, then get a very nasty shock. And they won't be blaming themselves for this.
The hit is going to start on the 1st August, when firms will have to start paying 20% or more of furloughed workers' salary, irrespective of sector (if the reports are accurate). There is no way a business in a sector where turnover has dropped to near-zero can afford to pay even that - many are desperately struggling with unavoidable expenses as it is.
It seems mad to me that the Chancellor isn't taking into account the differential extent of the lockdown by sector. It rather negates the point of the government paying for furlough to start with if the jobs are going to go on 1st August anyway.
I think it will be before then because of redundancy notice periods, consultation etc.
Personally I think that a factor in the Rolls Royce timing - I think it is worth 10s of millions in that situation. The Unions have something in their claims there.
45 days consultation plus 90 days notice covered by the furlough scheme plus a bit of buffer is very close to late May to October.
"Conservative MP Sir Desmond Swayne backs Dominic Cummings over claims of lockdown breach: "Whatever your opinion... he is staying. Like it or lump it."
Indeed.
And that's the story really, isn't it?
The media are only now waking up to the fact the tories under Johnson have a towering majority in government.
Finally, in keeping Cummings, they have started to actually govern. If this sorry affair leads to the government ignoring the Morgans and the Rigbys more in future. will have achieved something.
The issue is actually the way they kept Cummings and the impact that will have later this year.
Just you wait and see how bad the impact of Boris's speech on May 24th is when things need to lock down again.
Its no different than Blair keeping Alistair Campbell. The caravan moves on and something different takes its place.
Not quite, Blair didn't gaslight / treat with contempt everything everyone has done for the past 8 weeks. In 2 minutes on Sunday Boris did just that.
"Conservative MP Sir Desmond Swayne backs Dominic Cummings over claims of lockdown breach: "Whatever your opinion... he is staying. Like it or lump it."
Indeed.
And that's the story really, isn't it?
The media are only now waking up to the fact the tories under Johnson have a towering majority in government.
Finally, in keeping Cummings, they have started to actually govern. If this sorry affair leads to the government ignoring the Morgans and the Rigbys more in future. will have achieved something.
The issue is actually the way they kept Cummings and the impact that will have later this year.
Just you wait and see how bad the impact of Boris's speech on May 24th is when things need to lock down again.
Its no different than Blair keeping Alistair Campbell. The caravan moves on and something different takes its place.
Not quite, Blair didn't gaslight / treat with contempt everything everyone has done for the past 8 weeks. In 2 minutes on Sunday Boris did just that.
Of course he did.
Bernie Ecclestone, David Kelly, invading Iraq, flying to Davos, kowtowing to Murdoch, his interesting tax affairs.
There's lots of examples and by and large the public just shrigs it shoulders and switches on Love Island.
But they shouldn't. If the default reaction to a lack of standards in public life is a shrug of the shoulders and a weary "well, that's the way of the world innit, mine's a Fosters", guess what the upshot will be (and is) -
A continued deterioration of standards in public life.
Mr. Brooke, there are several things that make it more important/damaging than might otherwise be the case.
Cumming is a very senior fellow so it's especially important he's seen to adhere to the rules. The Government PR on this has been atrocious and did nothing (possibly excepting yesterday, but by then the event horizon may already have been passed) to dispel the notion that rules were for little people and special ones like Dominic Cummings can just ignore them.
If he'd made that statement right away the situation might be different. But the momentum (ahem) and saturation coverage for days means this has seeped into the public consciousness already. And in a way that's very bad for the Government.
Trust in the Government's crucial right now because further lockdowns or other restrictions could well be imposed and we need to follow them if that's the case. This story has dramatically undermined confidence in the Government, alas.
Sunak has taken a dive too - from 35% 4 days ago to 20%.
Starmer is up slightly (to 12% but basically flat.
Of concern: Level of worry, with 35% of people saying they’re very worried or the most worried they’ve ever been, is at the lowest since we started tracking.
As I mentioned yesterday, and I'm sure many others did, the Conservatives will never recover from this. The honeymoon is well and truly over.
Those heady days of high approval ratings are at an end. The new northern tory MPs will begin to finger their shirt collars nervously.
It's over. This isn't hyperbole. As Black Wednesday demonstrated, it only takes one catastrophic day to blow the people's trust for a generation.
If the Tories get -1% at the next election, ie they get 49.5% of the vote and all other parties combined get 50.5% of the vote, I'd be absolutely delighted!
I’m surprised that anybody, four years out, unaware of how the pandemic plays out, or what the eventual impact on the economy will be, with no idea of how the government will perform and no idea of what policies will be proposed knows how they are going to vote. If you do then you are a tribal loyalist more interested in the brand than performance, sad really.
I think most of us on this site have a very good idea how we will vote.
Possibly less than usual. I don't know how I'll vote at the next election: it depends who the Lib Dems elect as the next leader and how Starmer performs. It's vanishingly unlikely to be the Conservatives, though, I'll grant you that.
I can't see any of our other parties being more libertarian than the Conservative Party. If the Tories were to oust our current great leader and go back to someone like May, while if the Lib Dems were to go for someone like Nick Clegg and to run on an Orange Book platform then I'd have a difficult decision to make and would probably go to the Lib Dems.
But the odds of that happening seem to be up there with a zombie apocalypse or asteroid strike.
He's one of the sensible ones, who's said absolutely nothing on the subject and appears to be getting on with his day-job on the Science Committee.
He's commented on it on Facebook (there's more, but this is the key bit):
So I hugely welcome the fact that Mr Cummings has today given a full account – it is worth reading* if you missed the press conference – and has been extensively questioned by the media about it. It clearly would have been much better if his explanation had been given earlier: that is the least people deserve.
Personally, I do not think that I would have made the same decision that Mr Cummings did. However I recognise the stress that he was under, especially given his concern for the security of his family home. And, as a father myself, I do understand his desire to make sure that appropriate emergency provision for his son was in place.
Finally, I want to highlight that I do not believe in trial by media, and in particular I have found the scenes outside Dominic Cummings’ house concerning. This mob mentality appears to have migrated from social media, especially Twitter. It is also apparent that many media figures have taken sides in this debate based on having a prior axe to grind – in particular over Brexit or the 2019 General Election. I would rather treat each case on its merits.
By my count 55 MPs need to send in letters and force Boris to fire Cummings or face a leadership battle that he may now not win.
Have any MPs called for the PM to go? That seems very far fetched? Id imagine all the critical ones would be happy with Cummings going. (Maybe even an apology although getting very late for that!)
Has the Member of Parliament for Newcastle-under-Lyme expressed any view on the peregrinations of Mr Cummings?
haven't seen anything
He wrote a long post about it on facebook
"Statement on Dominic Cummings
Thank you to all the constituents who have written to me this weekend, and thank you too for your patience. I will, of course, be sending replies via post over the next week. I did not want to rush into a more general response without having more facts available, and in light of today’s press conference I am pleased I made this decision. I am very grateful to everyone in Newcastle-under-Lyme who has been sticking to the regulations. I know how hard lockdown has been for everybody. Birthdays have had to be celebrated on Zoom, grandparents have not hugged their grandchildren, and many people have been unable to attend the funerals of their family and friends. Therefore I completely understand your anger at the suggestion that government officials may not have been following the same rules as the rest of us. I have had hundreds of emails over this weekend, from all sides of the political spectrum. Please rest assured that I have let the government know my own views on the matter from the outset, as well as passing on the sentiments expressed in my inbox. A number of these emails have clearly been politically organised by those who have never liked Mr Cummings, but the vast majority are from residents with genuine concerns about the situation.
Firstly, I should set out that I have given advice to a number of constituents during the last few months who have contacted me regarding what they can and can’t do, with respect to both work and family circumstances. I have always replied with reference to the Government guidance and the Coronavirus regulations. I have always tried to be realistic and pragmatic in my advice, in the knowledge that the guidance does make exceptions for travel in order to look after vulnerable people. Turning to the matter at hand, I do not know Dominic Cummings at all, though I have a lot of respect for his political acumen and his strategic ability. I cannot speak directly to the facts in this matter...."
" Another MP said the situation "feels more poll tax than ERM, actually." "
Telegraph
I can't quite work out what distinction is being drawn here.
Any ideas?
Probably the scope of people affected. Literally everyone had to pay the Poll Tax and literally everyone is affected by Covid. Black Wednesday was a somewhat niche concern by comparison.
As I mentioned yesterday, and I'm sure many others did, the Conservatives will never recover from this. The honeymoon is well and truly over.
Those heady days of high approval ratings are at an end. The new northern tory MPs will begin to finger their shirt collars nervously.
It's over. This isn't hyperbole. As Black Wednesday demonstrated, it only takes one catastrophic day to blow the people's trust for a generation.
If the Tories get -1% at the next election, ie they get 49.5% of the vote and all other parties combined get 50.5% of the vote, I'd be absolutely delighted!
I’m surprised that anybody, four years out, unaware of how the pandemic plays out, or what the eventual impact on the economy will be, with no idea of how the government will perform and no idea of what policies will be proposed knows how they are going to vote. If you do then you are a tribal loyalist more interested in the brand than performance, sad really.
I think most of us on this site have a very good idea how we will vote.
Exactly, blind faith based on prejudice and preconceptions of the alternatives. As I say sad and lacking in any kind of rigorous analysis of what’s on offer.
It doesn't take much rigorous analysis to know that the Tories match my values, especially under a leader I wholeheartedly respect, than other parties do.
There are other people here equally pleased to see Starmer leading Labour and wanting him to win. If your values match Starmers then fair enough. Mine don't.
Has the Member of Parliament for Newcastle-under-Lyme expressed any view on the peregrinations of Mr Cummings?
haven't seen anything
"So I hugely welcome the fact that Mr Cummings has today given a full account – it is worth reading* if you missed the press conference – and has been extensively questioned by the media about it. It clearly would have been much better if his explanation had been given earlier: that is the least people deserve. Personally, I do not think that I would have made the same decision that Mr Cummings did. However I recognise the stress that he was under, especially given his concern for the security of his family home. And, as a father myself, I do understand his desire to make sure that appropriate emergency provision for his son was in place. Finally, I want to highlight that I do not believe in trial by media, and in particular I have found the scenes outside Dominic Cummings’ house concerning. This mob mentality appears to have migrated from social media, especially Twitter. It is also apparent that many media figures have taken sides in this debate based on having a prior axe to grind – in particular over Brexit or the 2019 General Election. I would rather treat each case on its merits.
My team and I are here to support you as we continue to fight the virus and rebuild our economy – whether you agree with me about this or not. As ever, please email aaron.bell.mp@parliament.uk if you need help with a local issue. Thank you again, and please stay safe during these difficult times. Aaron * https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1286889/Dominic-Cummings-statement-in-full-transcript"
By my unscientific finger in the air method the Tory party has just shifted 3m votes from their column into the undecided column. It's literally all to play for for Labour now. If Boris is still there in 2024 I could see Labour getting very close to a majority or even a working majority atm.
It's going to be a very long 4 years for the party if they don't dump Boris.
Yes, of course they should dump their best election winner in 32 years over a single incident. Remember when Boris' prorogation was overturned? When he expelled 20 MPs from his own party, was in deep minority, and faced a die-in-a-ditch deadline within weeks?
The received wisdom was that he was finished then too. It is comically lacking in perspective to believe that he is finished now with a majority of 80, Labour 163 seats behind, and 4 years to plan strategy for the next election.
Your Trojan Horse Jeremy Corbyn helped immeasurably too remember.
If people are pissed about an advisor breaking the rules, wait until they find out that furloughed really means sacked with a long notice period.
I predict a load of people are going to enjoy the summer, spend their wages like they are going back to work in September, then get a very nasty shock. And they won't be blaming themselves for this.
The hit is going to start on the 1st August, when firms will have to start paying 20% or more of furloughed workers' salary, irrespective of sector (if the reports are accurate). There is no way a business in a sector where turnover has dropped to near-zero can afford to pay even that - many are desperately struggling with unavoidable expenses as it is.
It seems mad to me that the Chancellor isn't taking into account the differential extent of the lockdown by sector. It rather negates the point of the government paying for furlough to start with if the jobs are going to go on 1st August anyway.
My employer has already started handing out the redundancy notices and suddenly none of my colleagues are happy about either furlough or the lockdown any more.
The economy, specifically unemployment, will be the big story soon. Maybe by the end of summer. That will be this government's Black Wednesday.
Also, same man who said he'd do anything for his wife and child is wasting his time in the evening amending his blog posts to make himself look like Nostradamus rather than doing bedtime or the washing up. Classic narcissist.
I can't see any of our other parties being more libertarian than the Conservative Party. If the Tories were to oust our current great leader and go back to someone like May, while if the Lib Dems were to go for someone like Nick Clegg and to run on an Orange Book platform then I'd have a difficult decision to make and would probably go to the Lib Dems.
But the odds of that happening seem to be up there with a zombie apocalypse or asteroid strike.
What you need is PR so you can vote for a Libertarian Party which would go into coalition with the Conservatives.
Hmm, PR. Why has no one ever written a thread header about that.
The reason this is bigger than the poll tax and bigger than Black Wednesday is that we were all in this together. 90% compliance in an astonishing physical, visceral, emotional unity, which even had our Queen, not once but twice invoking the war spirit.
We were all in this together: 'one equal temper of heroic hearts' (Tennyson).
And they shat on us. The very people who got to power by mocking elitism just shat on us.
As I mentioned yesterday, and I'm sure many others did, the Conservatives will never recover from this. The honeymoon is well and truly over.
Those heady days of high approval ratings are at an end. The new northern tory MPs will begin to finger their shirt collars nervously.
It's over. This isn't hyperbole. As Black Wednesday demonstrated, it only takes one catastrophic day to blow the people's trust for a generation.
If the Tories get -1% at the next election, ie they get 49.5% of the vote and all other parties combined get 50.5% of the vote, I'd be absolutely delighted!
I’m surprised that anybody, four years out, unaware of how the pandemic plays out, or what the eventual impact on the economy will be, with no idea of how the government will perform and no idea of what policies will be proposed knows how they are going to vote. If you do then you are a tribal loyalist more interested in the brand than performance, sad really.
I think most of us on this site have a very good idea how we will vote.
Possibly less than usual. I don't know how I'll vote at the next election: it depends who the Lib Dems elect as the next leader and how Starmer performs. It's vanishingly unlikely to be the Conservatives, though, I'll grant you that.
I can't see any of our other parties being more libertarian than the Conservative Party. If the Tories were to oust our current great leader and go back to someone like May, while if the Lib Dems were to go for someone like Nick Clegg and to run on an Orange Book platform then I'd have a difficult decision to make and would probably go to the Lib Dems.
But the odds of that happening seem to be up there with a zombie apocalypse or asteroid strike.
There was a saddening mini thread on here last night which I was too tired to reply to (the ever brilliant @Cyclefree got there first).
Essentially two or three culinary-challenged middle-aged blokes were entirely sanguine about the closure (and possible destruction) of the hospitality and catering industry, because Covid-19 had forced them to learn to cook.
Sad. In three ways.
1. They should learned to cook years ago. FFS.
2. Going out to pubs and restaurants is not really about eating. It’s about atmosphere and interaction and meeting people.
3. Pubs are the backbone of Britain. Its ultimate infrastructure. Its selling point. They are what makes it unique, and lovely.
The threadette upset me so much I had to get this off my chest.
Wake up!
Conflating two issues to make a point that is entirely different.
It is very difficult to open pubs and restaurants with a novel virus flying around. That doesn't mean I was sanguine about the effect this will have on the economy. I am however being realistic. Of course it will. Pubs and restaurants were closing before they were asked to by the government. For many, there will be no reopening - this is very sad for those involved, but better times will return and so will the sector, as their means of protection are not being destroyed as they would be in a war or a natural disaster. As ever, people who want the parts of the lockdown over or swiftly eased ignore the fact that the economy was heavily wounded before it, because of fear, and will be heavily wounded after it, because people's habits will change.
I've been able to cook perfectly adequately, thank you. But this time has made me realise that I was getting lazy and cooking the same dishes, or ordering the same takeaways, or going to mediocre restaurants (of which there were many) and its nice to have the time and opportunity to learn more.
Pubs are not the backbone of Britain. They are not the ultimate infrastructure. They're a pleasant, enjoyable means of drinking, eating and sometimes socialising. I love pubs and restaurants, and probably spend more time in them than most given my largely domestic travelling. But they're not the be all and end all. I'm likely going to be having far more dinner parties after this, and fewer pub trips. Its the people I miss, not the place.
You are wrong about pubs.
As your comparison with dinner parties shows perfectly.
This is what our Red Wall Tory MP said, and not to Crick in a car park. A straight bat, probably as requested by CCO.
Following on from a holding statement last week.
-------------------- I too am a father and when my kids were young I would have done anything to protect them and keep them safe. The fact that the press have been camped outside his house for months, the death threats and the unrelenting personal abuse made his decision to move away to Durham to protect his family all the more understandable. He is not been on a 2 week holiday with his family, as he pointed out at one stage his 4 year old son was admitted to hospital and both him and his wife were unwell.
It was important that he referred the exceptions in Government guidelines which led to him making the judgment to move his family to a safe place.
I have to believe what he said as I cannot actually see any reason for him to move to Durham other than to protect his family from the abuse and reduce the risk of spreading COVID-19.
He totally dismissed the false allegations of a second trip to Durham and contact with other people.
Finally it is time for the media to leave him alone now. This is a human being and I think he is a decent bloke and good dad. --------------------------------------
By my unscientific finger in the air method the Tory party has just shifted 3m votes from their column into the undecided column. It's literally all to play for for Labour now. If Boris is still there in 2024 I could see Labour getting very close to a majority or even a working majority atm.
It's going to be a very long 4 years for the party if they don't dump Boris.
I can't see how Boris makes it another 4 years. I can see Tory party pushing him out and spinning it as him going having never fully recovered from coronavirus.
Unless the Tories are consistently 10+ points underwater in 2023 and / or the economy remains crashed, I can't see how he doesn't make it. Just draw up a list of obstacles that Boris has overcome in the last 10 months (!) that would have broken any other politician or Prime Minister.
By my unscientific finger in the air method the Tory party has just shifted 3m votes from their column into the undecided column. It's literally all to play for for Labour now. If Boris is still there in 2024 I could see Labour getting very close to a majority or even a working majority atm.
It's going to be a very long 4 years for the party if they don't dump Boris.
Yes, of course they should dump their best election winner in 32 years over a single incident. Remember when Boris' prorogation was overturned? When he expelled 20 MPs from his own party, was in deep minority, and faced a die-in-a-ditch deadline within weeks?
The received wisdom was that he was finished then too. It is comically lacking in perspective to believe that he is finished now with a majority of 80, Labour 163 seats behind, and 4 years to plan strategy for the next election.
The difference then is that Boris was (fairly or unfairly) cast as the saviour of the people vs the elites. That strategy isn't going to be available to him and Dom next time. This has taken away Boris' USP as a man of the people. The consensus view of Boris among those who would consider voting for him is "he might be rich and a toff but he's not like the rest of them". That's been completely shattered today.
You are completely blinkered if you think Boris will win another majority.
If people are pissed about an advisor breaking the rules, wait until they find out that furloughed really means sacked with a long notice period.
I predict a load of people are going to enjoy the summer, spend their wages like they are going back to work in September, then get a very nasty shock. And they won't be blaming themselves for this.
The hit is going to start on the 1st August, when firms will have to start paying 20% or more of furloughed workers' salary, irrespective of sector (if the reports are accurate). There is no way a business in a sector where turnover has dropped to near-zero can afford to pay even that - many are desperately struggling with unavoidable expenses as it is.
It seems mad to me that the Chancellor isn't taking into account the differential extent of the lockdown by sector. It rather negates the point of the government paying for furlough to start with if the jobs are going to go on 1st August anyway.
What sectors will be on near zero revenue by August 1?
Airlines - possibly, but sounds like sector specific support available there Conference organisers Professional/Semi Pro sport not big enough for TV
There really shouldnt be many that arent getting some revenue in. Pubs, restaurants and hotels are expected to be open by then. If their re-opening is delayed Id imagine the changes to furlough are also delayed.
If the same thing happened to any of us with young children without access to an empty house, it would be a pretty scary situation. Puts into perspective how different dealing with the virus is between the richest and the poorest. Hopefully that will be taken into account in future policies - there are many stealth taxes on the poor that dont appear on the statute.
That said, if we were offered the chance of such access I doubt many people would turn it down.
If people are pissed about an advisor breaking the rules, wait until they find out that furloughed really means sacked with a long notice period.
I predict a load of people are going to enjoy the summer, spend their wages like they are going back to work in September, then get a very nasty shock. And they won't be blaming themselves for this.
The hit is going to start on the 1st August, when firms will have to start paying 20% or more of furloughed workers' salary, irrespective of sector (if the reports are accurate). There is no way a business in a sector where turnover has dropped to near-zero can afford to pay even that - many are desperately struggling with unavoidable expenses as it is.
It seems mad to me that the Chancellor isn't taking into account the differential extent of the lockdown by sector. It rather negates the point of the government paying for furlough to start with if the jobs are going to go on 1st August anyway.
It's going to be a very difficult autumn for a lot of people, as businesses temporarily frozen for three months, by the furlough scheme and rent holidays, need to decide what to do next.
A great many are not reopening, and a great many more will be opening with only a fraction of their previous demand level. The government can't keep paying everyone above the usual benefits levels forever, and the various temporary schemes coming to an end will be when everyone realises how deep the recession is going to be.
By my unscientific finger in the air method the Tory party has just shifted 3m votes from their column into the undecided column. It's literally all to play for for Labour now. If Boris is still there in 2024 I could see Labour getting very close to a majority or even a working majority atm.
It's going to be a very long 4 years for the party if they don't dump Boris.
Yes, of course they should dump their best election winner in 32 years over a single incident. Remember when Boris' prorogation was overturned? When he expelled 20 MPs from his own party, was in deep minority, and faced a die-in-a-ditch deadline within weeks?
The received wisdom was that he was finished then too. It is comically lacking in perspective to believe that he is finished now with a majority of 80, Labour 163 seats behind, and 4 years to plan strategy for the next election.
The difference then is that Boris was (fairly or unfairly) cast as the saviour of the people vs the elites. That strategy isn't going to be available to him and Dom next time. This has taken away Boris' USP as a man of the people. The consensus view of Boris among those who would consider voting for him is "he might be rich and a toff but he's not like the rest of them". That's been completely shattered today.
You are completely blinkered if you think Boris will win another majority.
And the world economy is going to be in the toilet and whatever fall out over brexit. It isn't going to be like say 2005 for New Labour, where people thought they are pretty sleazy, Bad Al, Mandy, et al. but I am doing very nicely thank you so why rock the boat.
By my unscientific finger in the air method the Tory party has just shifted 3m votes from their column into the undecided column. It's literally all to play for for Labour now. If Boris is still there in 2024 I could see Labour getting very close to a majority or even a working majority atm.
It's going to be a very long 4 years for the party if they don't dump Boris.
I think Boris stands a better chance of winning than eg Gove
...and now two months later there is no elbow room on the beaches of England. You couldn't make this madness up!
Their app doesnt have data from when the matches were played, only from 17 days later, so whilst he might be a scientist, there is no scientific rigour or data behind his assumptions. Nor do they know who went to the matches.
If his supporters turn on him it'd be news. That Labour voters are no longer supporting him isn't news.
I've got many tory friends who are absolutely incandescent. They feel that they and others sacrificed almost everything and their leadership have taken them for complete fools.
You should follow Cummings' example and get out more.
Then your Tory friends are - to put it politely - obtuse. One man driving to Durham had fuck all effect on the efficacy of the national lockdown, as proven by the statistics demonstrating the, er, efficacy of the national lockdown. Their sacrifices are worth precisely as much as they always were, which is a hell of a lot.
Stats here on the efficacy of the lockdown show a massive drop in number worried this weekend.
Even if it's true that less worry = compromised lockdown (which is not necessarily clear), then all it proves is that the Guardian and Mirror caused it to be compromised. It is surely incontrovertible that had they not conducted their hit-job, confidence in the lockdown would be higher, would it not?
By my unscientific finger in the air method the Tory party has just shifted 3m votes from their column into the undecided column. It's literally all to play for for Labour now. If Boris is still there in 2024 I could see Labour getting very close to a majority or even a working majority atm.
It's going to be a very long 4 years for the party if they don't dump Boris.
Yes, of course they should dump their best election winner in 32 years over a single incident. Remember when Boris' prorogation was overturned? When he expelled 20 MPs from his own party, was in deep minority, and faced a die-in-a-ditch deadline within weeks?
The received wisdom was that he was finished then too. It is comically lacking in perspective to believe that he is finished now with a majority of 80, Labour 163 seats behind, and 4 years to plan strategy for the next election.
The difference then is that Boris was (fairly or unfairly) cast as the saviour of the people vs the elites. That strategy isn't going to be available to him and Dom next time. This has taken away Boris' USP as a man of the people. The consensus view of Boris among those who would consider voting for him is "he might be rich and a toff but he's not like the rest of them". That's been completely shattered today.
You are completely blinkered if you think Boris will win another majority.
By my count 55 MPs need to send in letters and force Boris to fire Cummings or face a leadership battle that he may now not win.
Have any MPs called for the PM to go? That seems very far fetched? Id imagine all the critical ones would be happy with Cummings going. (Maybe even an apology although getting very late for that!)
"Feels more Poll Tax than ERM." Would seem to imply that. Without openly saying so.
...and now two months later there is no elbow room on the beaches of England. You couldn't make this madness up!
Their app doesnt have data from when the matches were played, only from 17 days later, so whilst he might be a scientist, there is no scientific rigour or data behind his assumptions. Nor do they know who went to the matches.
There is plenty of extrapolated evidence an accepted modelling to suggest these events mattered.
What you have suggested is like saying Dominic Cummings definitely did not travel to County Durham because we personally did not see him there.
Mexico's capital has registered 8,072 more deaths than usual in the first five months of this year, a study has found, casting doubt on the country’s official coronavirus figures.
By my unscientific finger in the air method the Tory party has just shifted 3m votes from their column into the undecided column. It's literally all to play for for Labour now. If Boris is still there in 2024 I could see Labour getting very close to a majority or even a working majority atm.
It's going to be a very long 4 years for the party if they don't dump Boris.
Yes, of course they should dump their best election winner in 32 years over a single incident. Remember when Boris' prorogation was overturned? When he expelled 20 MPs from his own party, was in deep minority, and faced a die-in-a-ditch deadline within weeks?
The received wisdom was that he was finished then too. It is comically lacking in perspective to believe that he is finished now with a majority of 80, Labour 163 seats behind, and 4 years to plan strategy for the next election.
The difference then is that Boris was (fairly or unfairly) cast as the saviour of the people vs the elites. That strategy isn't going to be available to him and Dom next time. This has taken away Boris' USP as a man of the people. The consensus view of Boris among those who would consider voting for him is "he might be rich and a toff but he's not like the rest of them". That's been completely shattered today.
You are completely blinkered if you think Boris will win another majority.
"Boris' USP as a man of the people"
Not sure he ever had that.
I think he does, or perhaps rather did. From HIGNFY to winning Labour London for the Conservatives and then championing the Olympics, he showed a deft touch that belied his Etonian education. He reached across the political spectrum as, indeed, he did by winning last year.
He has really blown it through standing by Cummings. More even than his lack of judgement and his failure to capture the mood of the country, it shows he is insecure and weak. And those are terrible qualities in a PM. The last (godawful) PM we had like that was Gordon Brown.
Comments
Stats here on the efficacy of the lockdown show a massive drop in number worried this weekend.
https://twitter.com/AngryScotland/status/1265221806681702401?s=20
Then I will vote for the least worst option.
https://www.facebook.com/AaronBell4NUL/posts/287149366020927
It's going to be a very long 4 years for the party if they don't dump Boris.
So I hugely welcome the fact that Mr Cummings has today given a full account – it is worth reading* if you missed the press conference – and has been extensively questioned by the media about it. It clearly would have been much better if his explanation had been given earlier: that is the least people deserve.
Personally, I do not think that I would have made the same decision that Mr Cummings did. However I recognise the stress that he was under, especially given his concern for the security of his family home. And, as a father myself, I do understand his desire to make sure that appropriate emergency provision for his son was in place.
Finally, I want to highlight that I do not believe in trial by media, and in particular I have found the scenes outside Dominic Cummings’ house concerning. This mob mentality appears to have migrated from social media, especially Twitter. It is also apparent that many media figures have taken sides in this debate based on having a prior axe to grind – in particular over Brexit or the 2019 General Election. I would rather treat each case on its merits.
It seems mad to me that the Chancellor isn't taking into account the differential extent of the lockdown by sector. It rather negates the point of the government paying for furlough to start with if the jobs are going to go on 1st August anyway.
The parallel now is not that Dominic Cummings broke the rules and got away with it. The parallel is that in doing so, and condoned by the Prime Minister, it says to everyone who has made sacrifices and endured hardships that they are fools. That is why this is so dangerous for the government.
If you can think of another situation like this, what is it?
The nation needs sport back PDQ.
The received wisdom was that he was finished then too. It is comically lacking in perspective to believe that he is finished now with a majority of 80, Labour 163 seats behind, and 4 years to plan strategy for the next election.
This is some process story about movements of an advisor during a natural disaster - it's not even close to the same scale, but has been amplified by a bored media who really don't like the guy and wanted a scalp, and are now even more annoyed that they're not going to get it!
If they wanted him sacked, they should have run the story at the height of the lockdown period, either at the time it happened or as soon as the PM was back at his desk. It's still unclear why they didn't do that, and why even after six weeks the Guardian's initial headline was so blatantly untrue.
The story of whether or not the PM sacked his advisor is not going to feature in the news four years from now. It's probably going to be next week's chip wrapping as everyone moves on to shops and schools re-opening.
It's a masterclass on viral infection.
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1265226375541260290
Classic Dom!
4D chess.
https://quillette.com/2020/05/14/towards-a-better-urbanism/
How China managed to test almost 1.5m people for coronavirus in a single day
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-26/china-coronavirus-wuhan-testing-millions-in-10-days/12283202
https://twitter.com/leomiklasz/status/1265225258648440833?s=20
Personally I think that a factor in the Rolls Royce timing - I think it is worth 10s of millions in that situation. The Unions have something in their claims there.
45 days consultation plus 90 days notice covered by the furlough scheme plus a bit of buffer is very close to late May to October.
Any ideas?
A continued deterioration of standards in public life.
Cumming is a very senior fellow so it's especially important he's seen to adhere to the rules. The Government PR on this has been atrocious and did nothing (possibly excepting yesterday, but by then the event horizon may already have been passed) to dispel the notion that rules were for little people and special ones like Dominic Cummings can just ignore them.
If he'd made that statement right away the situation might be different. But the momentum (ahem) and saturation coverage for days means this has seeped into the public consciousness already. And in a way that's very bad for the Government.
Trust in the Government's crucial right now because further lockdowns or other restrictions could well be imposed and we need to follow them if that's the case. This story has dramatically undermined confidence in the Government, alas.
But the odds of that happening seem to be up there with a zombie apocalypse or asteroid strike.
"Statement on Dominic Cummings
Thank you to all the constituents who have written to me this weekend, and thank you too for your patience. I will, of course, be sending replies via post over the next week.
I did not want to rush into a more general response without having more facts available, and in light of today’s press conference I am pleased I made this decision.
I am very grateful to everyone in Newcastle-under-Lyme who has been sticking to the regulations. I know how hard lockdown has been for everybody. Birthdays have had to be celebrated on Zoom, grandparents have not hugged their grandchildren, and many people have been unable to attend the funerals of their family and friends.
Therefore I completely understand your anger at the suggestion that government officials may not have been following the same rules as the rest of us.
I have had hundreds of emails over this weekend, from all sides of the political spectrum. Please rest assured that I have let the government know my own views on the matter from the outset, as well as passing on the sentiments expressed in my inbox. A number of these emails have clearly been politically organised by those who have never liked Mr Cummings, but the vast majority are from residents with genuine concerns about the situation.
Firstly, I should set out that I have given advice to a number of constituents during the last few months who have contacted me regarding what they can and can’t do, with respect to both work and family circumstances. I have always replied with reference to the Government guidance and the Coronavirus regulations. I have always tried to be realistic and pragmatic in my advice, in the knowledge that the guidance does make exceptions for travel in order to look after vulnerable people.
Turning to the matter at hand, I do not know Dominic Cummings at all, though I have a lot of respect for his political acumen and his strategic ability. I cannot speak directly to the facts in this matter...."
1/2
There are other people here equally pleased to see Starmer leading Labour and wanting him to win. If your values match Starmers then fair enough. Mine don't.
Personally, I do not think that I would have made the same decision that Mr Cummings did. However I recognise the stress that he was under, especially given his concern for the security of his family home. And, as a father myself, I do understand his desire to make sure that appropriate emergency provision for his son was in place.
Finally, I want to highlight that I do not believe in trial by media, and in particular I have found the scenes outside Dominic Cummings’ house concerning. This mob mentality appears to have migrated from social media, especially Twitter. It is also apparent that many media figures have taken sides in this debate based on having a prior axe to grind – in particular over Brexit or the 2019 General Election. I would rather treat each case on its merits.
My team and I are here to support you as we continue to fight the virus and rebuild our economy – whether you agree with me about this or not. As ever, please email aaron.bell.mp@parliament.uk if you need help with a local issue.
Thank you again, and please stay safe during these difficult times.
Aaron
* https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1286889/Dominic-Cummings-statement-in-full-transcript"
2/2
The economy, specifically unemployment, will be the big story soon. Maybe by the end of summer. That will be this government's Black Wednesday.
Hmm, PR. Why has no one ever written a thread header about that.
We were all in this together: 'one equal temper of heroic hearts' (Tennyson).
And they shat on us. The very people who got to power by mocking elitism just shat on us.
They will not recover from this.
As your comparison with dinner parties shows perfectly.
Following on from a holding statement last week.
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I too am a father and when my kids were young I would have done anything to protect them and keep them safe. The fact that the press have been camped outside his house for months, the death threats and the unrelenting personal abuse made his decision to move away to Durham to protect his family all the more understandable. He is not been on a 2 week holiday with his family, as he pointed out at one stage his 4 year old son was admitted to hospital and both him and his wife were unwell.
It was important that he referred the exceptions in Government guidelines which led to him making the judgment to move his family to a safe place.
I have to believe what he said as I cannot actually see any reason for him to move to Durham other than to protect his family from the abuse and reduce the risk of spreading COVID-19.
He totally dismissed the false allegations of a second trip to Durham and contact with other people.
Finally it is time for the media to leave him alone now. This is a human being and I think he is a decent bloke and good dad.
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You are completely blinkered if you think Boris will win another majority.
Airlines - possibly, but sounds like sector specific support available there
Conference organisers
Professional/Semi Pro sport not big enough for TV
There really shouldnt be many that arent getting some revenue in. Pubs, restaurants and hotels are expected to be open by then. If their re-opening is delayed Id imagine the changes to furlough are also delayed.
That said, if we were offered the chance of such access I doubt many people would turn it down.
A great many are not reopening, and a great many more will be opening with only a fraction of their previous demand level. The government can't keep paying everyone above the usual benefits levels forever, and the various temporary schemes coming to an end will be when everyone realises how deep the recession is going to be.
But that's not really important, is it? Let's get back to talking about the real issues, like driving for an eye-test...
A politician who caves to every media uproar and every swing in public mood will be a dismal failure.
Thats all right then
Not sure he ever had that.
https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1265230642398273536
What you have suggested is like saying Dominic Cummings definitely did not travel to County Durham because we personally did not see him there.
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1265231030472105986
I actually don't think outside events are much of a problem but the tube on the other hand..
He has really blown it through standing by Cummings. More even than his lack of judgement and his failure to capture the mood of the country, it shows he is insecure and weak. And those are terrible qualities in a PM. The last (godawful) PM we had like that was Gordon Brown.