politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling analysis: The big driver of Labour’s decline has no

anotherDave said:

anotherDave said:

Scottish Westminster VI, table 30, p.33
Con 18%, Green 2%, Lab 35%, LD 5%, SNP 37%, UKIP 4%.

2010 GE, scottish result
Con 17%, Green 1%, Lab 42%, LD 19%, SNP 20%, UKIP 1%.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/region/7.stm

You would think that the SNP would be less vicious about the LibDems, given that they have lent the SNP most of their vote rise.....

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ukip has lost almost one in 10 of the county councillors who won their seats when the party made a breakthrough at last year's local elections, research by the Guardian has found.

A year on from the May 2013 poll, the party is down by 12 county representatives out of the 139 who were elected.

The majority of new Ukip county councillors appear to have been working actively in their communities over the past 12 months, with statistics showing they have the best attendance record of any party at more than 92% of compulsory meetings. In many areas, they have fought to limit councillor allowances and perks, campaigned against HS2 and mounted protests against EU flags being flown in town halls.

However, the band of newly elected councillors also appears to have been plagued by a disproportionate number of controversies

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/14/ukip-lost-one-in-10-county-councillors-seats-2013

That loss will almost have been made up by the defectors from Romford Conservatives.. and the ones that are left are inventing quotes from local residents

The Romford Conservative Association (RCA) has been criticised for its election newsletters which have falsely quoted residents
Thomas Waller, 62, of Garrick House, appears to say in the Hylands leaflet: “People in this area do not want Havering turning into another Barking and Dagenham.But speaking to the Recorder he said: “For the life of me, I didn’t say it and I would never have said it.
My daughter and grandchild live in Barking and Dagenham, my wife was brought up there. There’s no way I would’ve said it. I’m certainly not a member of the Conservative party,” he said. “My dad would turn in his grave if he thought I was,”

He also said that he did not even know about the issue he was supposedly talking about in the leaflet.

http://www.romfordrecorder.co.uk/news/politics/romford_conservatives_falsely_quote_residents_in_newsletters_1_3598463

Nevertheless, an editor on a paper that is losing market share will not be an editor for long.

Unless you are Alan Rusbridger, who not only presides over colossal market share loss, but also annual multimillion £ losses. ; )

OblitusSumMe said:

isam said:

Labour MP's had attached UKIP leaflets to a brick, said they were going to send them back, and put the picture on twitter.. then a brick goes through a UKIP MEP's window...

You often complain about UKIP not being treated fairly, and then you ruin it by posting something like that.

There's a long tradition of abusing political freepost addresses in the UK - I remember people saying they were going to post bricks to the freepost address for Souter's campaign to keep Section 28 more than a decade ago - so to try to connect that childish action by Labour MPs to a brick through a window is absurd.

I don't recall - though I may be wrong - that there was much discussion on here of the Green Party member who was told by the police to remove his tweets that were critical of UKIP. Sometimes that's just the way it happens, particularly if the discussion gets diverted to the glory of French military prowess or the price of a can of beans [and why that is bad news for Ed Miliband].

There certainly was much discussion of that Green PArty member, and it transpired the police hadnt actually asked him to remove the tweets

TheScreamingEagles said:

SquareRoot said:

Yeah, but there is always an Ed is crap thread to fall back on

I have three of those in the pipeline.

In one, I even compare Ed to Hannibal.

Surely a comparison with Mack at Ulm would be better? Or maybe Dupont at Bailén.

anotherDave said:

Quincel said:

anotherDave said:

Quincel said:

Pulpstar said:

The electorate is in a febrile mood and has NO FUCKING CLUE what it wants !

Both EP 2014 and GE 2015 look likely to be a case of "The people have spoken. What did they say?". Although a UKIP win in 2014 would be a fairly clear message that people dislike immigrants and politicians even more than usual.

A clearer message that they want to leave the EU.

I'm not so sure, the result of a hypothetical referendum has if anything slightly improved as UKIP have risen in the polls over the few years.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_referendum_on_United_Kingdom_membership_of_the_European_Union#Standard_polling_on_EU_membership

UKIP's founding purpose was to get the UK out of the EU. If they win the EU Parliament elections, that is a clear vote for leaving the EU.

No, it's just a protest vote. UKIP could win every UK seat in the euros and they still wouldn't be placed to take us out of the EU. The EU elections are wholly futile in that they change absolutely nothing.

UKIP are exactly as significant a movement as the SDP. Remember them? Exactly.

The election UKIP needs to win is a UK GE. Every time the punters are offered the chance to vote them into the Commons, they decline to do so. When it actually matters, UKIP collapses like one of them funny foreign soufflés. Harrumph!

MarqueeMark said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

Com Res have UKIP 34%, Lab 24%, Con 22%, LD8%, Green 5%, for the Euros.

In 2009 Labour under performed their worst poll rating of 16% in the lead up to the Euros. With Ed Miliband's current figures, I simply cannot see him adding more than 10% to his vote, or coming close to the 28%-ish that Blair polled in 1999.

I'm a seller on Labour at anything down to 24%.

I floated the idea of Labour third some weeks back, but it was pooh-poohed because the locals are all in Labour heartlands this time - which should drag more of their supporters to the polls than in those years when it is more broadly based.

If Labour come third in the Euros playing with a stacked deck, they are in desperate trouble for 2015.

I don't see how locals will drag more of their voters out than national European elections. Turnouts are similar at a national level - somewhere in the mid-high 30s. That might not be the case at a local level where a sitting Labour councillor is out actively campaigning, in a way they might have not in 2009, but I can't see that making anything more than a very small difference at the margins.

Labour have been virtually silent at the national level this election. Voters have got used to PR and will vote for the party they most want, not against the party they dislike most. That will hurt Labour on the day.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Jim, is that a mention of an old story, or has the same thing happened again?

I think it's because Ed B is distancing himself from Labour's election poster VATastrophe

I think I may have just run out of mind bleach

David Cameroon ‏@davecameroon 1h

I'm getting concerned about the level of support being shown for #UKIP in Swansea. pic.twitter.com/nNJf92Q37f

twitter.com/davecameroon/status/466834912394629121

Easterross said:

Good morning all and I gather that Labour has already abandoned hopes of winning Barnet Council in London next week.

What is a good result for Labour next week? Losing fewer than 500 council wards?

I'll be voting to do my bit to ensure their pessimism is justified. It's expensive enough round here without those buggers making it worse.

isam said:

ToryJim said:

isam said:

ToryJim said:

isam said:

"Over the past 12 hours, Britain's media has somewhat exposed itself for being the anti-UKIP establishment that many UKIP leaders and activists have claimed in the face of derision over recent years.

While every UK news outlet reported that Sanya-Jeet Thandi, a 21-year-old London School of Economics student decided to leave the party, only Breitbart London, then followed by the Guardian, reported the violent attack on Gerard Batten MEP's house in the early hours of Tuesday morning."

http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/05/14/VIDEO-UKIP-rally-footage-and-protests

I thought the point of UKIP was to revel in their insurgent status as being up against "the machine". That being the case UKIP can't expect the establishment to just roll over and shouldn't complain when they don't. Their whole MO is that the big boys are ganging up on them, to then blue about it makes them look ridiculous. They should MTFU.

No the point is to untangle our country from the EU

I think the status you describe is more by accident than planned. It just happens to have turned out that way. Why supposedly impartial media feel the need to only show one side of the story is beyond me. The news that a student had left the party made the Daily Politics, Sky News, Channel 4 News etc. The brick through an MEP's window didnt make any of those programmes as far as I am aware.

I handed out leaflets for UKIP yesterday and two people (the only two I spoke to) said "you have got my vote already, the way the other parties & media are ganging up to dig dirt on you is a disgrace", so although it doesnt fit with your agenda, it is what people are feeling.

Of course, I expect partisan followers of parties on here to be upset, because we are gaining members and taking votes from you, but the media should be more balanced

UKIP seem to have had far more coverage than any other party, both positive and negative, one story hasn't been as widely reported as you'd like. Shame. It happens to all parties. A free press means they will decide what they think is a story. You might not like their decision but you won't get far angling for a UKIP version of Pravda.

I am not angling for that at all, surely free speech / free press means I am allowed to point out the imbalance?

If you honestly think there hasnt been a media campaign to highlight every bad story for UKIP then you must be living in cloud cuckoo land

As I say it can only be fuelled by you party becoming less popular in terms of votes and members, and ours becoming more popular by those measures

Newspapers ganging up on you, aww diddums, that's what happens.

Mr. Jim, the Andrew Neil clip of him eviscerating Douglas Alexander over that was rather good.

Mr. Divvie, people can have quite divergent views towards parties and their leaders (often negative, although Major was much more liked than the Conservatives).

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think I may have just run out of mind bleach

David Cameroon ‏@davecameroon 1h

I'm getting concerned about the level of support being shown for #UKIP in Swansea. pic.twitter.com/nNJf92Q37f

twitter.com/davecameroon/status/466834912394629121

It's Swansea...nothing suprises me..

ToryJim said:

Scott_P said:

Mr Salmond is under pressure to come up with a “plan B” on currency and has hinted that his favoured option would be using the pound unilaterally, in the way that Panama uses the dollar. Giving evidence to the Scottish affairs committee yesterday, Mr Osborne acknowledged that an independent Scotland could take the “sterlingisation” approach but it would be doomed to failure.

“The idea Scotland could adopt the Panama or Montenegro approach is just not credible. It wouldn’t last, it would be pretty disastrous for Scotland to even try that,” he said. “It’s inconceivable that you could have a financial sector anything like the size and sophistication of Scotland’s, employing tens of thousands of people, when you are literally having to grab pound notes and pound coins as they come across the border and try and hold on to them.”

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4090249.ece

Perhaps they'll create a new currency the Salmond, colourful, interesting but not necessarily to be taken at face value

Haven't we discussed this before? Another possibility would be to call the new Scotch currency the "pwned". Because they will be.

TheWatcher said:

Gawd. Not another thread clogged up by whining Kippers.

You ain't see nothing yet.

Just imagine next Sunday, if UKIP are pushed into second or third place, and An Independence from Europe poll very well.

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheWatcher said:

Gawd. Not another thread clogged up by whining Kippers.

You ain't see nothing yet.

Just imagine next Sunday, if UKIP are pushed into second or third place, and An Independence from Europe poll very well.

I just hope supermarkets are well stocked with bacofoil

isam said:

ToryJim said:

isam said:

ToryJim said:

isam said:

"Over the past 12 hours, Britain's media has somewhat exposed itself for being the anti-UKIP establishment that many UKIP leaders and activists have claimed in the face of derision over recent years.

While every UK news outlet reported that Sanya-Jeet Thandi, a 21-year-old London School of Economics student decided to leave the party, only Breitbart London, then followed by the Guardian, reported the violent attack on Gerard Batten MEP's house in the early hours of Tuesday morning."

http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/05/14/VIDEO-UKIP-rally-footage-and-protests

I thought the point of UKIP was to revel in their insurgent status as being up against "the machine". That being the case UKIP can't expect the establishment to just roll over and shouldn't complain when they don't. Their whole MO is that the big boys are ganging up on them, to then blue about it makes them look ridiculous. They should MTFU.

No the point is to untangle our country from the EU

I think the status you describe is more by accident than planned. It just happens to have turned out that way. Why supposedly impartial media feel the need to only show one side of the story is beyond me. The news that a student had left the party made the Daily Politics, Sky News, Channel 4 News etc. The brick through an MEP's window didnt make any of those programmes as far as I am aware.

I handed out leaflets for UKIP yesterday and two people (the only two I spoke to) said "you have got my vote already, the way the other parties & media are ganging up to dig dirt on you is a disgrace", so although it doesnt fit with your agenda, it is what people are feeling.

Of course, I expect partisan followers of parties on here to be upset, because we are gaining members and taking votes from you, but the media should be more balanced

UKIP seem to have had far more coverage than any other party, both positive and negative, one story hasn't been as widely reported as you'd like. Shame. It happens to all parties. A free press means they will decide what they think is a story. You might not like their decision but you won't get far angling for a UKIP version of Pravda.

I am not angling for that at all, surely free speech / free press means I am allowed to point out the imbalance?

If you honestly think there hasnt been a media campaign to highlight every bad story for UKIP then you must be living in cloud cuckoo land

As I say it can only be fuelled by you party becoming less popular in terms of votes and members, and ours becoming more popular by those measures

I look back, fondly, to the days when the big kipper complaint was that the press ignored them, happy days.

anotherDave said:

Financier said:

ToryJim said:

Scott_P said:

Mr Salmond is under pressure to come up with a “plan B” on currency and has hinted that his favoured option would be using the pound unilaterally, in the way that Panama uses the dollar. Giving evidence to the Scottish affairs committee yesterday, Mr Osborne acknowledged that an independent Scotland could take the “sterlingisation” approach but it would be doomed to failure.

“The idea Scotland could adopt the Panama or Montenegro approach is just not credible. It wouldn’t last, it would be pretty disastrous for Scotland to even try that,” he said. “It’s inconceivable that you could have a financial sector anything like the size and sophistication of Scotland’s, employing tens of thousands of people, when you are literally having to grab pound notes and pound coins as they come across the border and try and hold on to them.”

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4090249.ece

Perhaps they'll create a new currency the Salmond, colourful, interesting but not necessarily to be taken at face value

On all my visits to Panama, i never took the local currency - the Balboa which is tied to the USD - as nobody would ever take it. Same applies to most of the Caribbean and Central America - the USD is king.

Presumably the same would happen with the Salmond/Scottish Pound/Celtic Dollar/ Highland Euro etc.

Did you wear a panama hat?



Have never worn a hat in my life.

For NickMP, Plato and (er maybe) tim, this is today's big news story.
http://news.sky.com/story/1261856/family-cat-saves-boy-from-vicious-dog-attack

As a change from the Scottish discussion, on Monday there will be new polling data out on Wales. See http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/

It says that this is not a steady as she goes poll.

isam said:

OblitusSumMe said:

isam said:

Labour MP's had attached UKIP leaflets to a brick, said they were going to send them back, and put the picture on twitter.. then a brick goes through a UKIP MEP's window...

You often complain about UKIP not being treated fairly, and then you ruin it by posting something like that.

There's a long tradition of abusing political freepost addresses in the UK - I remember people saying they were going to post bricks to the freepost address for Souter's campaign to keep Section 28 more than a decade ago - so to try to connect that childish action by Labour MPs to a brick through a window is absurd.

I don't recall - though I may be wrong - that there was much discussion on here of the Green Party member who was told by the police to remove his tweets that were critical of UKIP. Sometimes that's just the way it happens, particularly if the discussion gets diverted to the glory of French military prowess or the price of a can of beans [and why that is bad news for Ed Miliband].

There certainly was much discussion of that Green PArty member, and it transpired the police hadnt actually asked him to remove the tweets

"Cambridgeshire police accept that Abberton may have been asked to delete the tweets – passing on requests from Ukip – but that he was not forced to."

- Theresa May urged to investigate police request for blogger to remove tweets