politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Not good pandemic front pages for the government this morning

Oooh by some fluke I seem to be first. I only just sauntered onto the site.

The bad professor has managed to deflect away some of the opprobrium. Nothing like a salacious sex scandal laced with hyopcrisy to get people's teeth gnashing.

But, yes, the UK has handled this pandemic very poorly indeed. Especially so in the early stages. It doesn't matter how many tories on here jump up and down and claim otherwise. It's incontrovertible.

Has Boris had a good war so far? Well, he's the only world leader to have contracted the virus which is in part because of his careless attitude and arrogance. And, yet, in so doing he also won a lot of good will from people who are not his natural supporters, myself included.

They'd rather have headlines about someone no-one's heard of who can't keep his pants on, than the nightmare they're having with their NHS contact app.
https://twitter.com/Psythor/status/1257795741004771329

JohnLilburne said:

Mysticrose said:

Oooh by some fluke I seem to be first. I only just sauntered onto the site.

The bad professor has managed to deflect away some of the opprobrium. Nothing like a salacious sex scandal laced with hyopcrisy to get people's teeth gnashing.

But, yes, the UK has handled this pandemic very poorly indeed. Especially so in the early stages. It doesn't matter how many tories on here jump up and down and claim otherwise. It's incontrovertible.

Has Boris had a good war so far? Well, he's the only world leader to have contracted the virus which is in part because of his careless attitude and arrogance. And, yet, in so doing he also won a lot of good will from people who are not his natural supporters, myself included.

He should have followed the advice I had in an email from Patient Access the other day, and had a wank.

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think the biggest bear trap for the government is coming up.

If it the easing of the lockdown turns out to be a mistake then the life becomes even more difficult for the government.

Yep. The decision to curtail activity was mostly science-led, and worked in terms of not overloading the healthcare system. With hindsight it was probably the right call at the right time.

The decision to unlock, or rather the series of small relaxations that will happen in practice, are much more political in nature, with ministers having to decide priorities from a range of options given by the scientists, against a background of widespread economic disruption.

Every small relaxation will come with extra deaths. It's in the nature of a highly contagious disease. The Government just has to be upfront. "What we have done in the lockdown has saved the NHS and maybe prevented 460,000 dead. Easing up to save the economy may cause 20,000 deaths."

This disease requires a terrible balancing of deaths by Government.

BluestBlue said:

Literally half of those front pages are of some bloke the public have never heard of having an affair, and the other half are from newspapers who would find a way to blame Boris if he personally cured every infectious disease on the planet.

I agree with TSE that easing the lockdown is going to be much, much harder than what's gone before. But that holds true for governments around the world, and we will have at least some advantage in learning from the experiences of those that are re-opening before us.

What did we learn from Italy's experience with the virus, and how many lives did it save here?

Brokenshire on the ropes on R4 over Care Home testing.

JohnLilburne said:

Mysticrose said:

Oooh by some fluke I seem to be first. I only just sauntered onto the site.

The bad professor has managed to deflect away some of the opprobrium. Nothing like a salacious sex scandal laced with hyopcrisy to get people's teeth gnashing.

But, yes, the UK has handled this pandemic very poorly indeed. Especially so in the early stages. It doesn't matter how many tories on here jump up and down and claim otherwise. It's incontrovertible.

Has Boris had a good war so far? Well, he's the only world leader to have contracted the virus which is in part because of his careless attitude and arrogance. And, yet, in so doing he also won a lot of good will from people who are not his natural supporters, myself included.

He should have followed the advice I had in an email from Patient Access the other day, and had a wank.

I think this may become a post for the ages....

rottenborough said:

Brokenshire on the ropes on R4 over Care Home testing.

A succession of government ministers flailing badly trying to insist the turd sandwich is really Hawaiian Pizza with extra pineapple. The sight of Hancock berating the uppity doctor woman for her tone as she described personally telling people their relative has just died was truly funny...

Classic Sun headline there.

rottenborough said:

Sandpit said:

They'd rather have headlines about someone no-one's heard of who can't keep his pants on, than the nightmare they're having with their NHS contact app.
https://twitter.com/Psythor/status/1257795741004771329

Are we taking bets on precisely which day the government will reverse ferret and abandon this app, and head towards the welcoming arms of the international solution and Apple/Google?

Obviously that should be the day that Hancock resigns. This is one f-up that is totally unnecessary and I rather suspect is being driven by the Brexiteer world view that UK does not need international co-operation and agreements and we are exceptional.

I can't see the trial lasting a week, and seriously hope there's a team working in the background using the international solution.

I think the issue is a combination of the NHS and PHE not-invented-here mentality that we saw with the testing ramp-up problems, and a desire across government to capture more information about problematic locations, functionality which the Apple/Google solution specifically prohibits for privacy reasons.

Telegraph:

"The public are unaware of the “horrible” economic damage that is “coming around the corner” due to coronavirus, a former chancellor [Lord Lamont] has said, warning that the Government’s furlough scheme has lulled workers into a “false sense of security.” "

Moth du Jour: Striped Hawkmoth

A rare visitor from southern Europe, perhaps north Africa. The sort of beastie that will travel on the Spanish plume of hot air we are about to see in our weather.

Anyway Prof Ferguson has been found and swiftly tried and found guilty in the court of public opinion for breaking the rules just as the Scottish Chief Medical Officer was. He's yesterday's news. Today's news is still the lack of restrictions on flights and the looming app disaster.

Pulpstar said:

Anyway Prof Ferguson has been found and swiftly tried and found guilty in the court of public opinion for breaking the rules just as the Scottish Chief Medical Officer was. He's yesterday's news. Today's news is still the lack of restrictions on flights and the looming app disaster.

His modelling isn't yesterday's news though. It is still being used to guide our lockdown strategy. Swedish experts say it is effectively nonsense.

RochdalePioneers said:

noneoftheabove said:

RochdalePioneers said:

So have I got this straight that the government are going to both issue next steps advice that whole swathes of businesses cannot reopen and that the furlough scheme is to wind down?

When millions of new Tory voters are unceremonially thrown on the dole this summer across blue wall seats will that make then likely to continue to vote Tory...?

I doubt that would be a fair representation.

The furlough scheme will stay unchanged til end of June. Before then businesses will be encouraged to reopen if they can, guessing many will be reminded they are allowed to be open now and have chosen to be shut.

The furlough scheme probably changes in July to reflect whatever the economic situation is then.

Lets all be honest about this. Hospitality sector isn't reopening any time soon. We are not all about to go to the pub with our mates or have dinner out with a partner. Schools aren't reopening fully any time soon - some kids going back part time is the best we can hope for. The travel industry is screwed as long as social distancing is required and nations plan quarantine (for the first time in the UK's case).

These people aren't about to go back to work. Their businesses aren't about to reopen and resume status quo ante. Which either means the people are thrown under the bus. Or we continue funding their old jobs indefinitely. I understand that its a hard call to keep funding jobs especially if you're a Tory, and that mass unemployment is less of a problem if you are a Tory, but that also was the old world.

In the new world millions of surplus workers about to be thrown off the bus are Tory voters in seats needed to have a majority. Whilst a general election is 4 years away, people tend to have long memories of such things. The political fall out of the economic disaster will be here long after the medical crisis has faded.

Okay, so you've identified a number of problems, the issue is how do we move to identifying solutions.

The government can't keep paying people almost their full salary to not work, and a lot of companies are going to find that when allowed to open they can only afford to keep on half their existing team.

How to we deal with those made redundant, some of whom (but not all) will have been well looked-after by their employers such as airlines?

Any plan of action from here is going to result in a *lot* of bad headlines and corner-cases for the government, but the only real solution after June or July is to move everyone without a job onto Universal Credit, as would happen in a more usual recession.

rottenborough said:

MarqueeMark said:

Moth du Jour: Striped Hawkmoth

A rare visitor from southern Europe, perhaps north Africa. The sort of beastie that will travel on the Spanish plume of hot air we are about to see in our weather.

Lovely.

But is it not worrying we are about to get another plume? I don't know but feels like one of the warmest and certainly driest springs in a very long time.

Fear not, we get an Arctic blast for the weekend!

MarqueeMark said:

Moth du Jour: Striped Hawkmoth

A rare visitor from southern Europe, perhaps north Africa. The sort of beastie that will travel on the Spanish plume of hot air we are about to see in our weather.

Great pictures. May I ask whether the moths are somehow trapped to be so amenable to photography? And if so, whether you then release them?

MarqueeMark said:

rottenborough said:

MarqueeMark said:

Moth du Jour: Striped Hawkmoth

A rare visitor from southern Europe, perhaps north Africa. The sort of beastie that will travel on the Spanish plume of hot air we are about to see in our weather.

Lovely.

But is it not worrying we are about to get another plume? I don't know but feels like one of the warmest and certainly driest springs in a very long time.

Fear not, we get an Arctic blast for the weekend!

That'll stop the police getting overworked arresting sunbathers then!

BluestBlue said:

Literally half of those front pages are of some bloke the public have never heard of having an affair, and the other half are from newspapers who would find a way to blame Boris if he personally cured every infectious disease on the planet.

I agree with TSE that easing the lockdown is going to be much, much harder than what's gone before. But that holds true for governments around the world, and we will have at least some advantage in learning from the experiences of those that are re-opening before us.

That worked well with the virus planning , they really used their 2-3 week advantage well.

I despise Farage's politics, however he didn't break the lockdown rules for personal reasons. Whether I like him or not he is a journalist and he went to report on a news story. That is not against the rules.

If Carole Cadwaldr (sp?) or Robert Peston or Piers Morgan or other journalists I dislike did the same thing it would be the same.

No matter how bad things get healthwise it is not OK to tell journalists they can't report the news.

Another beautiful day in God's country, 35 sunny days out of the last 36 and just the job for lockdown, garden in wonderful shape and looking great.

rottenborough said:

Sandpit said:

rottenborough said:

Sandpit said:

They'd rather have headlines about someone no-one's heard of who can't keep his pants on, than the nightmare they're having with their NHS contact app.
https://twitter.com/Psythor/status/1257795741004771329

Are we taking bets on precisely which day the government will reverse ferret and abandon this app, and head towards the welcoming arms of the international solution and Apple/Google?

Obviously that should be the day that Hancock resigns. This is one f-up that is totally unnecessary and I rather suspect is being driven by the Brexiteer world view that UK does not need international co-operation and agreements and we are exceptional.

I can't see the trial lasting a week, and seriously hope there's a team working in the background using the international solution.

I think the issue is a combination of the NHS and PHE not-invented-here mentality that we saw with the testing ramp-up problems, and a desire across government to capture more information about problematic locations, functionality which the Apple/Google solution specifically prohibits for privacy reasons.

I agree that the latter point about collecting hotspot data must have been a factor. I suspect the desire of the experts to get that data, to help them, overrode the concerns of others involved e.g. app developers/privacy experts.

Another one for the world's second longest running public inquiry.

Apple and Google have done a serious favour to the citizens of the world with their framework development. Hats off to them, especially Google who are usually big fans of big data.

Without their joint approach, every world government would have implemented some Orwellian tracking app of their dreams, and made it impossible to live life without it. As it is, the A/G solution is the ONLY solution that will actually work for tracking the necessary social interactions to stop the disease spreading.

Hopefully the message that there is only one workable solution will spread around the world faster than the nasty virus did in the first place.

We need to come out of lockdown as soon as possible for the sake of our sanity, economy and freedom. But in a safe way. So we can't reopen everything yet.

So Boris needs to present a clear plan on Sunday to us coming out with stages and timescales. This will maintain the support of the nation.

We don't want the wishy washy 'plan' put forward by the Scottish executive who seem happy to restrict people's freedom for as long as possible.

And we need to stop furlough after 30 June except for those businesses which legally cannot operate eg pubs.

malcolmg said:

Another beautiful day in God's country, 35 sunny days out of the last 36 and just the job for lockdown, garden in wonderful shape and looking great.

impressive that you keep such close track of the weather here on Sjælland :-)

Ave_it said:

We need to come out of lockdown as soon as possible for the sake of our sanity, economy and freedom. But in a safe way. So we can't reopen everything yet.

So Boris needs to present a clear plan on Sunday to us coming out with stages and timescales. This will maintain the support of the nation.

We don't want the wishy washy 'plan' put forward by the Scottish executive who seem happy to restrict people's freedom for as long as possible.

And we need to stop furlough after 30 June except for those businesses which legally cannot operate eg pubs.

Agreed, though as we locked down a week or two after Germany, France, Spain and Italy we should also open up a week or two after them as well and see how their lockdown develops first

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think the biggest bear trap for the government is coming up.

If the easing of the lockdown turns out to be a mistake then life becomes even more difficult for the government.

The government may as well get used to having a hard life. We are going to have easing of the lockdown leading to fears over transmission of the virus at work, reductions in financial support for those not working, and more. This criticism is happening even before the changes have been made. The Times headline on 1st January 2020 was "Britain sees in new year on a wave of optimism", "Johnson promises decade of prosperity". It did not work out quite like that.

Barnesian said:

rottenborough said:

Pulpstar said:

Anyway Prof Ferguson has been found and swiftly tried and found guilty in the court of public opinion for breaking the rules just as the Scottish Chief Medical Officer was. He's yesterday's news. Today's news is still the lack of restrictions on flights and the looming app disaster.

His modelling isn't yesterday's news though. It is still being used to guide our lockdown strategy. Swedish experts say it is effectively nonsense.

Will Ferguson's model still be used even though he is no longer on SAGE to interpret it?

It wouldn't surprise me if Ferguson's replacement on SAGE is one of his senior co-workers.

So how do we get out of furlough? That is surely the challenge that is making the government lose sleep at night. Getting some of the recipients back to work is an obvious answer so it very much feeds into the lifting of the lockdown.

At the moment there are 6.3m people having wages paid by the government in large part. I have not seen any clear statistics about how many of these are on 100% of wages and how many are on 80%. A rough rule of thumb might be that those on 80% should be deeply concerned about whether their employers are going to want them back.

We need to open a wider range of shops with social distancing. Some won't open but if they go into liquidation/administration then we will have a clearer idea where we are.
We need to get construction workers back to work. That's a difficult one because a lot of work on site requires close contact. Maybe masks should become as compulsory on a worksite as the hardhat? We need to find a way to get office workers back to work. Possibly on a phased basis with some form of rotation. Once these people are back cafes will find it worthwhile being open again, even if only for takeaways. I would hope that the measures would reduce those on furlough by roughly half.

Getting those people to their work safely is going to be the biggest challenge. The message will still be to WFH where you can so that the crush on public transport is reduced but that is going to be the biggest threat to the R number, no doubt about it.

MarqueeMark said:

Mysticrose said:

I want to qualify what I wrote earlier. Let's talk football.

The Government had a piss-poor first half and went about 5-0 down.

The second half they have played much better, probably narrowly winning it.


There may be several more legs to play.

The score was not 5-0 first half. It perhaps SHOULD have been, but Labour had 11 goalies on the pitch, arguing about which of them would take a penalty that never came....

Rather telling that you think the government is engaged in a match against Labour, rather than the Coronavirus.

Ave_it said:

We need to come out of lockdown as soon as possible for the sake of our sanity, economy and freedom. But in a safe way. So we can't reopen everything yet.

So Boris needs to present a clear plan on Sunday to us coming out with stages and timescales. This will maintain the support of the nation.

We don't want the wishy washy 'plan' put forward by the Scottish executive who seem happy to restrict people's freedom for as long as possible.

And we need to stop furlough after 30 June except for those businesses which legally cannot operate eg pubs.

I agree. That's exactly what he needs to do. On the furlough, maybe a tapering/transition. Not everyone will have jobs to go back to.

Philip_Thompson said:

I despise Farage's politics, however he didn't break the lockdown rules for personal reasons. Whether I like him or not he is a journalist and he went to report on a news story. That is not against the rules.

If Carole Cadwaldr (sp?) or Robert Peston or Piers Morgan or other journalists I dislike did the same thing it would be the same.

No matter how bad things get healthwise it is not OK to tell journalists they can't report the news.

In way way is Farage a journalist - speaking as a former NEC member of the NUJ

HYUFD said:

Ave_it said:

We need to come out of lockdown as soon as possible for the sake of our sanity, economy and freedom. But in a safe way. So we can't reopen everything yet.

So Boris needs to present a clear plan on Sunday to us coming out with stages and timescales. This will maintain the support of the nation.

We don't want the wishy washy 'plan' put forward by the Scottish executive who seem happy to restrict people's freedom for as long as possible.

And we need to stop furlough after 30 June except for those businesses which legally cannot operate eg pubs.

Agreed, though as we locked down a week or two after Germany, France, Spain and Italy we should also open up a week or two after them as well and see how their lockdown develops first

Entirely correct HYUFD. I am not proposing any significant lockdown changes until 1 June. But Boris should announce these on Sunday to give businesses 3 weeks to prepare.

FF43 said:

Looking at the front pages I have a strong suspicion Prof Ferguson was thrown under the bus at this precise moment to deflect the "Worst in Europe" headlines. They have partially succeeded in doing so.

Maybe the Government is happy with the Worst in Europe headlines. They will want to keep the population scared. A message that we passed the peak four weeks ago and deaths are falling would not help a gradual and orderly end to lockdown. Similarly, moving to the deaths in all settings figure has made them look worse. (It is true that deaths are still increasing in care homes but I don't see that that affects how you lift lockdown as most of us never go in one)

FF43 said:

Looking at the front pages I have a strong suspicion Prof Ferguson was thrown under the bus at this precise moment to deflect the "Worst in Europe" headlines. They have partially succeeded in doing so.

At the expense of the breaking of the lockdown nationwide. If he becomes known as Mr Lockdown then the lid will come off it. Good enough for him, etc... After all he only broke guidelines, not the law, woolly as that latter is.

NerysHughes said:

TOPPING said:

Pulpstar said:

TOPPING said:

Pulpstar said:

rottenborough said:

Pulpstar said:

Anyway Prof Ferguson has been found and swiftly tried and found guilty in the court of public opinion for breaking the rules just as the Scottish Chief Medical Officer was. He's yesterday's news. Today's news is still the lack of restrictions on flights and the looming app disaster.

His modelling isn't yesterday's news though. It is still being used to guide our lockdown strategy. Swedish experts say it is effectively nonsense.

His own breaking of the rules/hypocrisy has nothing to do with how good or not his model is, that's another discussion entirely.

It shows he doesn't really, really, really think that lockdown is a sensible (or effective) measure.

And he has shown this quite elegantly.

The lockdown has definitely been effective at lowering the transmission rate.

Of course it has. But what was the cost/benefit?

As the R figure was below 1 before the lockdown then surely the pre lockdown advice had the bigger impact.

Except it wasn't, unless you manipulate the data.

TOPPING said:

Pulpstar said:

TOPPING said:

Pulpstar said:

rottenborough said:

Pulpstar said:

Anyway Prof Ferguson has been found and swiftly tried and found guilty in the court of public opinion for breaking the rules just as the Scottish Chief Medical Officer was. He's yesterday's news. Today's news is still the lack of restrictions on flights and the looming app disaster.

His modelling isn't yesterday's news though. It is still being used to guide our lockdown strategy. Swedish experts say it is effectively nonsense.

His own breaking of the rules/hypocrisy has nothing to do with how good or not his model is, that's another discussion entirely.

It shows he doesn't really, really, really think that lockdown is a sensible (or effective) measure.

And he has shown this quite elegantly.

The lockdown has definitely been effective at lowering the transmission rate.

Of course it has. But what was the cost/benefit?

Well given the virus is an exponential killer..

Philip_Thompson said:

malcolmg said:

Pulpstar said:

rottenborough said:

Pulpstar said:

Anyway Prof Ferguson has been found and swiftly tried and found guilty in the court of public opinion for breaking the rules just as the Scottish Chief Medical Officer was. He's yesterday's news. Today's news is still the lack of restrictions on flights and the looming app disaster.

His modelling isn't yesterday's news though. It is still being used to guide our lockdown strategy. Swedish experts say it is effectively nonsense.

His own breaking of the rules/hypocrisy has nothing to do with how good or not his model is, that's another discussion entirely.

Given he is Boris acolyte you can be sure he is crap and his model will also be crap, only the model still to be proven.

Except he's not a Boris acolyte though. When he's veered into politics on Twitter its as a Remainer who seems keen on the Lib Dems.

He was there for his science not his politics or views on Brexit.

Well given he has no common sense, thinks he is above his own advice and lies like your average Tory, we are well shot of him. Will be shedloads of so called experts able to take over from the plonker.

RochdalePioneers said:

Ave_it said:

And we need to stop furlough after 30 June except for those businesses which legally cannot operate eg pubs.

A lengthy list just in hospitality, and don't forget all of the supply and support businesses below them who have no customers. Unless you extend the scheme to the wholesalers and the cleaners and the service companies and the suppliers then you'll not be able to reopen restaurants as they won't be able to get food to cook.

So thats hospitality. As the guidance remains WFH unless you cannot, that means public transport not running fully as you cannot social distance people on trains buses and planes. Which is all their staff, their support staff, the businesses who sell stuff to the people who use public transport.

Schools and nurseries? Can't reopen as you can't socially distance kids. A possible limited part time reopening is in the offing. I'd already covered wholesalers who supply school meals in the first paragraph, but as kids aren't going back their parents can't go back regardless of the sector they work in. Nor can you say "get the grandparents to look after them whilst you work" as they are in the protected group.

Etc etc. Its not as simple as "end the furlough scheme" when so many people will be unable to return to work. And thats to say nothing of businesses who will be thrown under the bus by "restaurants can reopen for takeaway only" which means no support which means they fail. With March rents barely paid it seems unlikely that June rents will be paid, so expect an avalanche of insolvencies from mid-June onwards...

Our local independent pub got a £25,000 grant. They expect it to have been fully spent by the end of May - my one surprise was that I thought they had bought and mortgaged the pub - it turns out they are renting it.

Dura_Ace said:

rottenborough said:

Sandpit said:

They'd rather have headlines about someone no-one's heard of who can't keep his pants on, than the nightmare they're having with their NHS contact app.
https://twitter.com/Psythor/status/1257795741004771329

Are we taking bets on precisely which day the government will reverse ferret and abandon this app, and head towards the welcoming arms of the international solution and Apple/Google?

Obviously that should be the day that Hancock resigns. This is one f-up that is totally unnecessary and I rather suspect is being driven by the Brexiteer world view that UK does not need international co-operation and agreements and we are exceptional.

The reason why they've done it this way, apparently in complete contravention all sense, that the tory party intend to exploit, politically and commercially, the data.

#classicdom

To be fair, I'd trust Apple and Google with my data much more than the government.

And I don't trust Apple or Google at all.

MikeSmithson said:

Philip_Thompson said:

I despise Farage's politics, however he didn't break the lockdown rules for personal reasons. Whether I like him or not he is a journalist and he went to report on a news story. That is not against the rules.

If Carole Cadwaldr (sp?) or Robert Peston or Piers Morgan or other journalists I dislike did the same thing it would be the same.

No matter how bad things get healthwise it is not OK to tell journalists they can't report the news.

In way way is Farage a journalist - speaking as a former NEC member of the NUJ

With all due respect union affiliations are not what makes you a journalist. Whether we like him or not he is, he reports on the news and has a show on LBC. He's every bit as much a journalists as Carole Cadwaldr etc

malcolmg said:

BluestBlue said:

Literally half of those front pages are of some bloke the public have never heard of having an affair, and the other half are from newspapers who would find a way to blame Boris if he personally cured every infectious disease on the planet.

I agree with TSE that easing the lockdown is going to be much, much harder than what's gone before. But that holds true for governments around the world, and we will have at least some advantage in learning from the experiences of those that are re-opening before us.

That worked well with the virus planning , they really used their 2-3 week advantage well.

Learning from previous failures to learn is the most valuable kind.

Pro_Rata said:

I don't think n the government were 5-0 down at half time.

The one thing they did an excellent job on was the staging and build up to lockdown over a period and the communication of that. It is fair to argue that all that should have commenced somewhat earlier, but I wouldn't change much at all about the how it was introduced. The staging fed in to the high levels of public support and compliance with the lockdown.

On the contrary, the gradual ramp up was one of their biggest errors. By saying that there was stricter measures to follow, they provided a perverse incentive for people to get out whilst they still could. And that led directly to the scenes of crowds and queues. The public were generally about two steps ahead of the government.

Ave_it said:

HYUFD said:

Ave_it said:

We need to come out of lockdown as soon as possible for the sake of our sanity, economy and freedom. But in a safe way. So we can't reopen everything yet.

So Boris needs to present a clear plan on Sunday to us coming out with stages and timescales. This will maintain the support of the nation.

We don't want the wishy washy 'plan' put forward by the Scottish executive who seem happy to restrict people's freedom for as long as possible.

And we need to stop furlough after 30 June except for those businesses which legally cannot operate eg pubs.

Agreed, though as we locked down a week or two after Germany, France, Spain and Italy we should also open up a week or two after them as well and see how their lockdown develops first

Entirely correct HYUFD. I am not proposing any significant lockdown changes until 1 June. But Boris should announce these on Sunday to give businesses 3 weeks to prepare.

Some enlightened companies are already planning for it and making big changes for the start of easing. It is obvious from what we have seen what is going to happen.
It is going to be bad for plenty, some smug Tories will soon get to see how what they counted as lazy indolent scroungers manage to survive at first hand.
As said earlier they will not find it a bed of roses.

RochdalePioneers said:

Ave_it said:

And we need to stop furlough after 30 June except for those businesses which legally cannot operate eg pubs.

A lengthy list just in hospitality, and don't forget all of the supply and support businesses below them who have no customers. Unless you extend the scheme to the wholesalers and the cleaners and the service companies and the suppliers then you'll not be able to reopen restaurants as they won't be able to get food to cook.

So thats hospitality. As the guidance remains WFH unless you cannot, that means public transport not running fully as you cannot social distance people on trains buses and planes. Which is all their staff, their support staff, the businesses who sell stuff to the people who use public transport.

Schools and nurseries? Can't reopen as you can't socially distance kids. A possible limited part time reopening is in the offing. I'd already covered wholesalers who supply school meals in the first paragraph, but as kids aren't going back their parents can't go back regardless of the sector they work in. Nor can you say "get the grandparents to look after them whilst you work" as they are in the protected group.

Etc etc. Its not as simple as "end the furlough scheme" when so many people will be unable to return to work. And thats to say nothing of businesses who will be thrown under the bus by "restaurants can reopen for takeaway only" which means no support which means they fail. With March rents barely paid it seems unlikely that June rents will be paid, so expect an avalanche of insolvencies from mid-June onwards...

Surely public transport needs to open as fully as possible to enable those who have to travel to work to do so as safely as possible. One of the things that caused overcrowding on the Tube at the beginning of lockdown was the reduction in serviced

Philip_Thompson said:

MikeSmithson said:

Philip_Thompson said:

I despise Farage's politics, however he didn't break the lockdown rules for personal reasons. Whether I like him or not he is a journalist and he went to report on a news story. That is not against the rules.

If Carole Cadwaldr (sp?) or Robert Peston or Piers Morgan or other journalists I dislike did the same thing it would be the same.

No matter how bad things get healthwise it is not OK to tell journalists they can't report the news.

In way way is Farage a journalist - speaking as a former NEC member of the NUJ

With all due respect union affiliations are not what makes you a journalist. Whether we like him or not he is, he reports on the news and has a show on LBC. He's every bit as much a journalists as Carole Cadwaldr etc

Farage is not a journalist. He is a politician who is published.

JohnLilburne said:

FF43 said:

Looking at the front pages I have a strong suspicion Prof Ferguson was thrown under the bus at this precise moment to deflect the "Worst in Europe" headlines. They have partially succeeded in doing so.

Maybe the Government is happy with the Worst in Europe headlines. They will want to keep the population scared. A message that we passed the peak four weeks ago and deaths are falling would not help a gradual and orderly end to lockdown. Similarly, moving to the deaths in all settings figure has made them look worse. (It is true that deaths are still increasing in care homes but I don't see that that affects how you lift lockdown as most of us never go in one)

They are not at all happy with those headlines. They are very keen to say you can't make comparisons.

On @Topping's point that Ferguson is undermining his own argument for lockdown. If that's the case, why would the government want to undermine their own mandated lockdown? It's a valid point. Nevertheless I am fairly sure this story has come out through news management. The papers running with it on their front pages are very well briefed.

Pulpstar said:

TOPPING said:

Pulpstar said:

TOPPING said:

Pulpstar said:

rottenborough said:

Pulpstar said:

Anyway Prof Ferguson has been found and swiftly tried and found guilty in the court of public opinion for breaking the rules just as the Scottish Chief Medical Officer was. He's yesterday's news. Today's news is still the lack of restrictions on flights and the looming app disaster.

His modelling isn't yesterday's news though. It is still being used to guide our lockdown strategy. Swedish experts say it is effectively nonsense.

His own breaking of the rules/hypocrisy has nothing to do with how good or not his model is, that's another discussion entirely.

It shows he doesn't really, really, really think that lockdown is a sensible (or effective) measure.

And he has shown this quite elegantly.

The lockdown has definitely been effective at lowering the transmission rate.

Of course it has. But what was the cost/benefit?

Well given the virus is an exponential killer..

We don't know. As we have all noted on here, much of its exponentialness was people fitting a line to a series of data points. All kinds of anecdotes are emerging (yes, anecdotes) of people, communities having CV symptoms in December. We don't know. But at the moment we are facing an economic challenge the likes of which we won't have seen for decades.

The cost of a human life, as per the govt's calcs is £1.8m. By most estimates we have spent so far £100bn on anti-CV19 measures.

At some point there will be a decision that spending such sums on an ongoing basis is too much per lives saved.