RobD said:

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rottenborough said:

MaxPB said:

rottenborough said:

eek said:

Going back to the NHS App - Unless GCHQ have donated that 0 day exploit here is an overview of why it won't work https://www.theregister.co.uk/2020/05/05/uk_coronavirus_app/

Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.

Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.

I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.

Wow. Hancock is brave.

Hancock has previous form with Apple and Google. I'm sure that's played its role in the decision to ignore their efforts. I honestly hope this works because I hate this lockdown but I'm pretty sure it won't.

I've been told that our app also won't be internationally compatible which means British people will need to install multiple apps if they go overseas while the others can be made interoperable.

If this app fails like it looks like it will because of the problem of when the phone is asleep, then Hancock will have to resign. He is done.

If the app doesn't work while the phone is asleep then why not get IT bods to patch the app so that it does?

Because the OS are built to not allow this. The suggestion os that GCHQ have been called upon to use their expertise with this..thats code for use up an exploit that they will have in their toolbox for messing with peoples phones they spy on.

Problem is especially Apple are totally against anybody for any reason being able to exploit their OS, so I can see them trying to patch it, to stop it working.

If the above is true, the spooks probably just burned a really useful exploit.

I mean if the code as written doesn't work when its not active and only the API does then why not patch the program so that it uses the API?

May require a substantial rewrite of elements of the backend to make it work with the Apple API but if that's what's required then JFDI its not the end of the world is it?

And surely that's what the Isle of Wight test is for? If the Isle of Wight test says this app as currently written isn't working as intended and it needs a rewrite to integrate the API then the Isle of Wight test has done its job.

We need this app yesterday, reworking it isn't going happen overnight and after reading the way it's been made it will probably need to be junked and rewritten which isn't a small undertaking. As I said above, we're about two weeks away from calling in the private sector heavyweights just like we did for testing. Why not do it now and get it done sooner so we can ease the lockdown sooner.

Yes we need this app yesterday and the NHSX app is ready. Its in a live trial already.

If the live trial is a success then roll it out. If its not then go to Plan B. It wouldn't surprise me if people are already working on Plan B just in case the trial doesn't work.

Is an alternative program ready already like the NHSX app is?

That app is ready because we've invested in it for the last few weeks. The original decision was incorrect, other countries have taken the Google/Apple approach and are ready to release as well. We know that will definitely work, ours is in an untested solution and when it doesn't work we'll be two to three weeks late to release.

PHE hasn't covered itself in glory throughout the crisis and Hancock has been too weak and too stupid to force the situation.

I don't think PHE are coding this app and GCHQ are world leaders at what they do. If GCHQ are confident this will work, then they must have a very good reason for thinking so.

PHE are making the app. GCHQ are providing the 0-day exploit. One that Apple could patch at any time. There's also the small matter of Google not having a similar exploit in Android which means the app definitely won't work be able to access the Bluetooth stack in the background meaning it will only work when the screen is on.

I simply can't believe it would get this far if that is the case.

I can. The incompetence of public sector tech is breathtaking sometimes.

JohnLilburne said:

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rottenborough said:

MaxPB said:

rottenborough said:

eek said:

Going back to the NHS App - Unless GCHQ have donated that 0 day exploit here is an overview of why it won't work https://www.theregister.co.uk/2020/05/05/uk_coronavirus_app/

Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.

Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.

I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.

Wow. Hancock is brave.

Hancock has previous form with Apple and Google. I'm sure that's played its role in the decision to ignore their efforts. I honestly hope this works because I hate this lockdown but I'm pretty sure it won't.

I've been told that our app also won't be internationally compatible which means British people will need to install multiple apps if they go overseas while the others can be made interoperable.

If this app fails like it looks like it will because of the problem of when the phone is asleep, then Hancock will have to resign. He is done.

If the app doesn't work while the phone is asleep then why not get IT bods to patch the app so that it does?

Because the OS are built to not allow this. The suggestion os that GCHQ have been called upon to use their expertise with this..thats code for use up an exploit that they will have in their toolbox for messing with peoples phones they spy on.

Problem is especially Apple are totally against anybody for any reason being able to exploit their OS, so I can see them trying to patch it, to stop it working.

If the above is true, the spooks probably just burned a really useful exploit.

I mean if the code as written doesn't work when its not active and only the API does then why not patch the program so that it uses the API?

May require a substantial rewrite of elements of the backend to make it work with the Apple API but if that's what's required then JFDI its not the end of the world is it?

And surely that's what the Isle of Wight test is for? If the Isle of Wight test says this app as currently written isn't working as intended and it needs a rewrite to integrate the API then the Isle of Wight test has done its job.

We need this app yesterday, reworking it isn't going happen overnight and after reading the way it's been made it will probably need to be junked and rewritten which isn't a small undertaking. As I said above, we're about two weeks away from calling in the private sector heavyweights just like we did for testing. Why not do it now and get it done sooner so we can ease the lockdown sooner.

Yes we need this app yesterday and the NHSX app is ready. Its in a live trial already.

If the live trial is a success then roll it out. If its not then go to Plan B. It wouldn't surprise me if people are already working on Plan B just in case the trial doesn't work.

Is an alternative program ready already like the NHSX app is?

That app is ready because we've invested in it for the last few weeks. The original decision was incorrect, other countries have taken the Google/Apple approach and are ready to release as well. We know that will definitely work, ours is in an untested solution and when it doesn't work we'll be two to three weeks late to release.

PHE hasn't covered itself in glory throughout the crisis and Hancock has been too weak and too stupid to force the situation.

I don't think PHE are coding this app and GCHQ are world leaders at what they do. If GCHQ are confident this will work, then they must have a very good reason for thinking so.

PHE are making the app. GCHQ are providing the 0-day exploit. One that Apple could patch at any time. There's also the small matter of Google not having a similar exploit in Android which means the app definitely won't work be able to access the Bluetooth stack in the background meaning it will only work when the screen is on.

So how do my Bluetooth headphones work when the screen is off? Or the car radio?

They’re securely paired. Your phone is not securely paired with every other phone in the country.

Gallowgate said:

If the app doesn’t work it’s going to be hilarious. Like hilariously incompetent. I’m literally laughing out loud at the thought of it.

I'm not.
I'm thinking of another very costly (this time economically rather than in lives lost) week or two wasted.

edmundintokyo said:

Philip_Thompson said:

edmundintokyo said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rottenborough said:

MaxPB said:

rottenborough said:

eek said:

Going back to the NHS App - Unless GCHQ have donated that 0 day exploit here is an overview of why it won't work https://www.theregister.co.uk/2020/05/05/uk_coronavirus_app/

Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.

Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.

I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.

Wow. Hancock is brave.

Hancock has previous form with Apple and Google. I'm sure that's played its role in the decision to ignore their efforts. I honestly hope this works because I hate this lockdown but I'm pretty sure it won't.

I've been told that our app also won't be internationally compatible which means British people will need to install multiple apps if they go overseas while the others can be made interoperable.

If this app fails like it looks like it will because of the problem of when the phone is asleep, then Hancock will have to resign. He is done.

If the app doesn't work while the phone is asleep then why not get IT bods to patch the app so that it does?

Because the OS are built to not allow this. The suggestion os that GCHQ have been called upon to use their expertise with this..thats code for use up an exploit that they will have in their toolbox for messing with peoples phones they spy on.

Problem is especially Apple are totally against anybody for any reason being able to exploit their OS, so I can see them trying to patch it, to stop it working.

If the above is true, the spooks probably just burned a really useful exploit.

I mean if the code as written doesn't work when its not active and only the API does then why not patch the program so that it uses the API?

May require a substantial rewrite of elements of the backend to make it work with the Apple API but if that's what's required then JFDI its not the end of the world is it?

And surely that's what the Isle of Wight test is for? If the Isle of Wight test says this app as currently written isn't working as intended and it needs a rewrite to integrate the API then the Isle of Wight test has done its job.

We need this app yesterday, reworking it isn't going happen overnight and after reading the way it's been made it will probably need to be junked and rewritten which isn't a small undertaking. As I said above, we're about two weeks away from calling in the private sector heavyweights just like we did for testing. Why not do it now and get it done sooner so we can ease the lockdown sooner.

Yes we need this app yesterday and the NHSX app is ready. Its in a live trial already.

If the live trial is a success then roll it out. If its not then go to Plan B. It wouldn't surprise me if people are already working on Plan B just in case the trial doesn't work.

Is an alternative program ready already like the NHSX app is?

That app is ready because we've invested in it for the last few weeks. The original decision was incorrect, other countries have taken the Google/Apple approach and are ready to release as well. We know that will definitely work, ours is in an untested solution and when it doesn't work we'll be two to three weeks late to release.

PHE hasn't covered itself in glory throughout the crisis and Hancock has been too weak and too stupid to force the situation.

I don't think PHE are coding this app and GCHQ are world leaders at what they do. If GCHQ are confident this will work, then they must have a very good reason for thinking so.

It seems like all we know is that they were asked for advice, I don't think anyone knows what they think about the result???

Indeed but I trust their advice was sound.

We have a whole bunch of armchair generals confident this won't work but the experts (who needs them eh?) advised it will and its already through the alpha test stage and into a live beta test.

We will know soon enough.

You're making assumptions about the process that we don't know anything about either way.

Which assumption do you think fails to meet Occam's Razor?

That having sought advice the advice came back and was positive?
Or that before there was a large high publicity Beta Test there was an Alpha Test?

If having sought advice the advice was "that's not possible, it won't work" and they proceeded with this plan anyway then that would be absurd. I see no reason to believe that though.

Gallowgate said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Gallowgate said:

If the app doesn’t work it’s going to be hilarious. Like hilariously incompetent. I’m literally laughing out loud at the thought of it.

Showing your vile true colours their like BJO.

What are you on about? This should have been the first thing to consider in the design process, especially when they were in discussions with Apple and Google.

If they ignored it and went ahead anyway, and it doesn’t work, it really is hilarious incompetence.

Clearly I want it to work.

This is why I am having a hard time believing it. There is no way they'd go down this path knowing these restrictions.

MaxPB said:

RobD said:

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rottenborough said:

MaxPB said:

rottenborough said:

eek said:

Going back to the NHS App - Unless GCHQ have donated that 0 day exploit here is an overview of why it won't work https://www.theregister.co.uk/2020/05/05/uk_coronavirus_app/

Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.

Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.

I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.

Wow. Hancock is brave.

Hancock has previous form with Apple and Google. I'm sure that's played its role in the decision to ignore their efforts. I honestly hope this works because I hate this lockdown but I'm pretty sure it won't.

I've been told that our app also won't be internationally compatible which means British people will need to install multiple apps if they go overseas while the others can be made interoperable.

If this app fails like it looks like it will because of the problem of when the phone is asleep, then Hancock will have to resign. He is done.

If the app doesn't work while the phone is asleep then why not get IT bods to patch the app so that it does?

Because the OS are built to not allow this. The suggestion os that GCHQ have been called upon to use their expertise with this..thats code for use up an exploit that they will have in their toolbox for messing with peoples phones they spy on.

Problem is especially Apple are totally against anybody for any reason being able to exploit their OS, so I can see them trying to patch it, to stop it working.

If the above is true, the spooks probably just burned a really useful exploit.

I mean if the code as written doesn't work when its not active and only the API does then why not patch the program so that it uses the API?

May require a substantial rewrite of elements of the backend to make it work with the Apple API but if that's what's required then JFDI its not the end of the world is it?

And surely that's what the Isle of Wight test is for? If the Isle of Wight test says this app as currently written isn't working as intended and it needs a rewrite to integrate the API then the Isle of Wight test has done its job.

We need this app yesterday, reworking it isn't going happen overnight and after reading the way it's been made it will probably need to be junked and rewritten which isn't a small undertaking. As I said above, we're about two weeks away from calling in the private sector heavyweights just like we did for testing. Why not do it now and get it done sooner so we can ease the lockdown sooner.

Yes we need this app yesterday and the NHSX app is ready. Its in a live trial already.

If the live trial is a success then roll it out. If its not then go to Plan B. It wouldn't surprise me if people are already working on Plan B just in case the trial doesn't work.

Is an alternative program ready already like the NHSX app is?

That app is ready because we've invested in it for the last few weeks. The original decision was incorrect, other countries have taken the Google/Apple approach and are ready to release as well. We know that will definitely work, ours is in an untested solution and when it doesn't work we'll be two to three weeks late to release.

PHE hasn't covered itself in glory throughout the crisis and Hancock has been too weak and too stupid to force the situation.

I don't think PHE are coding this app and GCHQ are world leaders at what they do. If GCHQ are confident this will work, then they must have a very good reason for thinking so.

PHE are making the app. GCHQ are providing the 0-day exploit. One that Apple could patch at any time. There's also the small matter of Google not having a similar exploit in Android which means the app definitely won't work be able to access the Bluetooth stack in the background meaning it will only work when the screen is on.

I simply can't believe it would get this far if that is the case.

I can. The incompetence of public sector tech is breathtaking sometimes.

But something so basic to the function of the application?

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

edmundintokyo said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rottenborough said:

MaxPB said:

rottenborough said:

eek said:

Going back to the NHS App - Unless GCHQ have donated that 0 day exploit here is an overview of why it won't work https://www.theregister.co.uk/2020/05/05/uk_coronavirus_app/

Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.

Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.

I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.

Wow. Hancock is brave.

Hancock has previous form with Apple and Google. I'm sure that's played its role in the decision to ignore their efforts. I honestly hope this works because I hate this lockdown but I'm pretty sure it won't.

I've been told that our app also won't be internationally compatible which means British people will need to install multiple apps if they go overseas while the others can be made interoperable.

If this app fails like it looks like it will because of the problem of when the phone is asleep, then Hancock will have to resign. He is done.

If the app doesn't work while the phone is asleep then why not get IT bods to patch the app so that it does?

Because the OS are built to not allow this. The suggestion os that GCHQ have been called upon to use their expertise with this..thats code for use up an exploit that they will have in their toolbox for messing with peoples phones they spy on.

Problem is especially Apple are totally against anybody for any reason being able to exploit their OS, so I can see them trying to patch it, to stop it working.

If the above is true, the spooks probably just burned a really useful exploit.

I mean if the code as written doesn't work when its not active and only the API does then why not patch the program so that it uses the API?

May require a substantial rewrite of elements of the backend to make it work with the Apple API but if that's what's required then JFDI its not the end of the world is it?

And surely that's what the Isle of Wight test is for? If the Isle of Wight test says this app as currently written isn't working as intended and it needs a rewrite to integrate the API then the Isle of Wight test has done its job.

We need this app yesterday, reworking it isn't going happen overnight and after reading the way it's been made it will probably need to be junked and rewritten which isn't a small undertaking. As I said above, we're about two weeks away from calling in the private sector heavyweights just like we did for testing. Why not do it now and get it done sooner so we can ease the lockdown sooner.

Yes we need this app yesterday and the NHSX app is ready. Its in a live trial already.

If the live trial is a success then roll it out. If its not then go to Plan B. It wouldn't surprise me if people are already working on Plan B just in case the trial doesn't work.

Is an alternative program ready already like the NHSX app is?

That app is ready because we've invested in it for the last few weeks. The original decision was incorrect, other countries have taken the Google/Apple approach and are ready to release as well. We know that will definitely work, ours is in an untested solution and when it doesn't work we'll be two to three weeks late to release.

PHE hasn't covered itself in glory throughout the crisis and Hancock has been too weak and too stupid to force the situation.

I don't think PHE are coding this app and GCHQ are world leaders at what they do. If GCHQ are confident this will work, then they must have a very good reason for thinking so.

It seems like all we know is that they were asked for advice, I don't think anyone knows what they think about the result???

Indeed but I trust their advice was sound.

We have a whole bunch of armchair generals confident this won't work but the experts (who needs them eh?) advised it will and its already through the alpha test stage and into a live beta test.

We will know soon enough.

Actually the experts in tech industry have said the government approach won't work, that's why they have provided a way to make it work. We've chosen to ignore that method in favour of one we've been told won't work by the tech industry.

Again and again our "experts" have been wrong. This is just another example.

I have no idea if you're right or wrong about this, but it's peculiar that you can accuse PHE of protectionism on this, and not admit to the possibility that the tech industry is doing the exact same thing.

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

edmundintokyo said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rottenborough said:

MaxPB said:

rottenborough said:

eek said:

Going back to the NHS App - Unless GCHQ have donated that 0 day exploit here is an overview of why it won't work https://www.theregister.co.uk/2020/05/05/uk_coronavirus_app/

Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.

Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.

I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.

Wow. Hancock is brave.

Hancock has previous form with Apple and Google. I'm sure that's played its role in the decision to ignore their efforts. I honestly hope this works because I hate this lockdown but I'm pretty sure it won't.

I've been told that our app also won't be internationally compatible which means British people will need to install multiple apps if they go overseas while the others can be made interoperable.

If this app fails like it looks like it will because of the problem of when the phone is asleep, then Hancock will have to resign. He is done.

If the app doesn't work while the phone is asleep then why not get IT bods to patch the app so that it does?

Because the OS are built to not allow this. The suggestion os that GCHQ have been called upon to use their expertise with this..thats code for use up an exploit that they will have in their toolbox for messing with peoples phones they spy on.

Problem is especially Apple are totally against anybody for any reason being able to exploit their OS, so I can see them trying to patch it, to stop it working.

If the above is true, the spooks probably just burned a really useful exploit.

I mean if the code as written doesn't work when its not active and only the API does then why not patch the program so that it uses the API?

May require a substantial rewrite of elements of the backend to make it work with the Apple API but if that's what's required then JFDI its not the end of the world is it?

And surely that's what the Isle of Wight test is for? If the Isle of Wight test says this app as currently written isn't working as intended and it needs a rewrite to integrate the API then the Isle of Wight test has done its job.

We need this app yesterday, reworking it isn't going happen overnight and after reading the way it's been made it will probably need to be junked and rewritten which isn't a small undertaking. As I said above, we're about two weeks away from calling in the private sector heavyweights just like we did for testing. Why not do it now and get it done sooner so we can ease the lockdown sooner.

Yes we need this app yesterday and the NHSX app is ready. Its in a live trial already.

If the live trial is a success then roll it out. If its not then go to Plan B. It wouldn't surprise me if people are already working on Plan B just in case the trial doesn't work.

Is an alternative program ready already like the NHSX app is?

That app is ready because we've invested in it for the last few weeks. The original decision was incorrect, other countries have taken the Google/Apple approach and are ready to release as well. We know that will definitely work, ours is in an untested solution and when it doesn't work we'll be two to three weeks late to release.

PHE hasn't covered itself in glory throughout the crisis and Hancock has been too weak and too stupid to force the situation.

I don't think PHE are coding this app and GCHQ are world leaders at what they do. If GCHQ are confident this will work, then they must have a very good reason for thinking so.

It seems like all we know is that they were asked for advice, I don't think anyone knows what they think about the result???

Indeed but I trust their advice was sound.

We have a whole bunch of armchair generals confident this won't work but the experts (who needs them eh?) advised it will and its already through the alpha test stage and into a live beta test.

We will know soon enough.

Actually the experts in tech industry have said the government approach won't work, that's why they have provided a way to make it work. We've chosen to ignore that method in favour of one we've been told won't work by the tech industry.

Again and again our "experts" have been wrong. This is just another example.

To be fair, the "experts" will be going off what IoS and Android specs state they are allowed to do e.g. Technically nobody can unlock iPhones, but the Israeli company Cellebrite can.

I am 100% certain the intelligence agencies have the ability to do this, it is just far too useful a tracking technique for them not to have invested a lot of time and effort in finding out how to do.

That is however is a very different task than tracking a whole population accurately.

kinabalu said:

Nigelb said:

kjh said:

MarqueeMark said:

When my friend's mother was suffering from dementia, she became convinced that "They are diluting my water!"

Dementia means never having to explain - with what?

As I said there are always funny moments. We had quite a few.

Unfortunately they go thru' the 'with what?' question in their own mind and then get angry because they have competing contradictory evidence.

We apparently had a full blown cinema in our basement (we don't have a basement). We spent ages with my Mum trying to find the stairs.

One night when I had to coax my mother back to the house from a neighbour I sat down for hours explaining to my mother what was happening and got to the point where she understood (it doesn't last). She then asked me whether she was going to get better. My stomach churned.

It took my far longer than it ought that the kindest, and most effective way to engage was with my father's emotions rather than trying to correct, or make sense of anything to him.

Yes - try to enter their world rather than drag them back into yours.

But much easier to type that out than to realize it in practice, I bet.

Yes it is when you are trying to coax them back into the house so you have to reverse their view of what is happening (your fathers mistress is not living there even though they have seen her!).

Also when they have contradictory evidence in their head as to what is happening (ie what they know and what they experience contradict one another).

Nigelb said:

Gallowgate said:

If the app doesn’t work it’s going to be hilarious. Like hilariously incompetent. I’m literally laughing out loud at the thought of it.

I'm not.
I'm thinking of another very costly (this time economically rather than in lives lost) week or two wasted.

Exactly, this, like testing, is another poor decision that will mean an extra few weeks in lockdown. It's costing us countless billions and job losses.

Philip_Thompson said:

Gallowgate said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Gallowgate said:

If the app doesn’t work it’s going to be hilarious. Like hilariously incompetent. I’m literally laughing out loud at the thought of it.

Showing your vile true colours their like BJO.

What are you on about? This should have been the first thing to consider in the design process, especially when they were in discussions with Apple and Google.

If they ignored it and went ahead anyway, and it doesn’t work, it really is hilarious incompetence.

Clearly I want it to work.

Oh clearly you do. You were just saying it was hilarious if it failed and are laughing out loud with multiple grinning face emojis.

If that's wanting it to work rather than willing it to fail then maybe rethink your choice of words and emojis.

Well it would be hilarious if it failed, considering anyone with an ounce of know-how regarding how iOS and Android works would have questioned the technology.

I WANT it to work because it will be a complete waste of time if it doesn’t and I want to be able to socialise, but I will not be surprised if it doesn’t.

I question why you’re so offended at my comments on the Government’s behalf.

Sandpit said:

RobD said:

Gallowgate said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Gallowgate said:

If the app doesn’t work it’s going to be hilarious. Like hilariously incompetent. I’m literally laughing out loud at the thought of it.

Showing your vile true colours their like BJO.

What are you on about? This should have been the first thing to consider in the design process, especially when they were in discussions with Apple and Google.

If they ignored it and went ahead anyway, and it doesn’t work, it really is hilarious incompetence.

Clearly I want it to work.

This is why I am having a hard time believing it. There is no way they'd go down this path knowing these restrictions.

The last big national NHS IT project was 10bn in the hole, before they finally realised it was unworkable and scrapped it.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/cost-of-abandoned-nhs-it-system-to-hit-10bn-8823917.html

Was it scuppered by a fundamental (and simple) flaw in the design? I don't think the two are analogous.

SandyRentool said:

MarqueeMark said:

Moth du Jour: Privet Hawkmoth. These are big beasts! Not uncommon - fair chance of attracting these to a suburban moth trap on a warm June/July evening.

While other outlets have Readers' Wives, we have a daily moth. Much more uplifting

Similar amounts of fuzz on display.

AlastairMeeks said:

Stocky said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Stocky said:

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/ukcivilservant/status/1257643916825952256?s=20

Do you think it may become clear that the excess deaths are largely down to the psychological effects of lockdown?

No.

What`s your thinking on this then?

I'd take some persuading that the excess deaths are attributable at present to anything much other than Covid-19. Other theories look pretty far-fetched to me on current evidence and seem to be largely induced by the prior prejudices of those promoting them.

While there will be some deaths caused by non-treatment of other conditions that would otherwise be treated, there will also be some deaths that don't happen because of lockdown (road traffic accidents are presumably far lower than usual, for example). I'd treat them as a wash until we get more concrete data.

Below are two extracts from Fullfact.org:

“It doesn’t include anyone who died from something else, because they were unable or unwilling to get medical care during a pandemic. It doesn’t include people who may have died as a result of domestic violence, or suicide, or other possible social consequences of the lockdown.”

And:

“The most obvious guess is the simplest: that all those unexplained extra deaths in care homes and private residences are in fact Covid-19 deaths, and we’re undercounting the size of the epidemic. In this explanation, many more people outside hospitals did die from Covid-19, but the certifying doctor either didn’t realise, didn’t have enough evidence (perhaps because of a shortage of tests in early April), or didn’t have time to consider the cause of death properly. (Indeed, this was what a whistleblower told Channel 4 in a news report on 13 April.)”

Nigelb said:

Philip_Thompson said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rottenborough said:

MaxPB said:

rottenborough said:

eek said:

Going back to the NHS App - Unless GCHQ have donated that 0 day exploit here is an overview of why it won't work https://www.theregister.co.uk/2020/05/05/uk_coronavirus_app/

Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.

Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.

I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.

Wow. Hancock is brave.

Hancock has previous form with Apple and Google. I'm sure that's played its role in the decision to ignore their efforts. I honestly hope this works because I hate this lockdown but I'm pretty sure it won't.

I've been told that our app also won't be internationally compatible which means British people will need to install multiple apps if they go overseas while the others can be made interoperable.

If this app fails like it looks like it will because of the problem of when the phone is asleep, then Hancock will have to resign. He is done.

If the app doesn't work while the phone is asleep then why not get IT bods to patch the app so that it does?

Because the OS are built to not allow this. The suggestion os that GCHQ have been called upon to use their expertise with this..thats code for use up an exploit that they will have in their toolbox for messing with peoples phones they spy on.

Problem is especially Apple are totally against anybody for any reason being able to exploit their OS, so I can see them trying to patch it, to stop it working.

If the above is true, the spooks probably just burned a really useful exploit.

I mean if the code as written doesn't work when its not active and only the API does then why not patch the program so that it uses the API?

May require a substantial rewrite of elements of the backend to make it work with the Apple API but if that's what's required then JFDI its not the end of the world is it?

And surely that's what the Isle of Wight test is for? If the Isle of Wight test says this app as currently written isn't working as intended and it needs a rewrite to integrate the API then the Isle of Wight test has done its job.

Because if you use the API it has restrictions on it's use that stops you collecting the location information the NHS want.

So if Plan A doesn't work and we need to go to an API Plan B then lose the location information. Shame but you can still work even if it is less useful. I don't see what the big deal is, that's the purpose of having a beta test. Its in the live beta test already, its probably already had alpha tests so we will know very shortly whether it works or not.

If it really doesn't work, why would it take a full scale trial to work that out ?

That's my thoughts precisely. If it really doesn't work surely they'd know by now?

This is something I couldn't believe when Hancock announced it...

"Self-reporting: The app will work from self-reported symptoms, rather than based on a test result. This opens it to misuse by people who don’t want to go to work or kids who want to skip class."

This surely can't be correct....I mean it will only take a few twats, go out around all the busiest parts of London, then flick the toggle to "I have coronavirus", and all hell breaks loose.

MaxPB said:

Nigelb said:

Gallowgate said:

If the app doesn’t work it’s going to be hilarious. Like hilariously incompetent. I’m literally laughing out loud at the thought of it.

I'm not.
I'm thinking of another very costly (this time economically rather than in lives lost) week or two wasted.

Exactly, this, like testing, is another poor decision that will mean an extra few weeks in lockdown. It's costing us countless billions and job losses.

If the test is successful and this app works as planned, having been available quicker and with more functionality than delaying to use the API, would you accept that it was a good decision saving weeks in lockdown and saving us countless billions and jobs?

eek said:

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

edmundintokyo said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rottenborough said:

MaxPB said:

rottenborough said:

eek said:

Going back to the NHS App - Unless GCHQ have donated that 0 day exploit here is an overview of why it won't work https://www.theregister.co.uk/2020/05/05/uk_coronavirus_app/

Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.

Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.

I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.

Wow. Hancock is brave.

Hancock has previous form with Apple and Google. I'm sure that's played its role in the decision to ignore their efforts. I honestly hope this works because I hate this lockdown but I'm pretty sure it won't.

I've been told that our app also won't be internationally compatible which means British people will need to install multiple apps if they go overseas while the others can be made interoperable.

If this app fails like it looks like it will because of the problem of when the phone is asleep, then Hancock will have to resign. He is done.

If the app doesn't work while the phone is asleep then why not get IT bods to patch the app so that it does?

Because the OS are built to not allow this. The suggestion os that GCHQ have been called upon to use their expertise with this..thats code for use up an exploit that they will have in their toolbox for messing with peoples phones they spy on.

Problem is especially Apple are totally against anybody for any reason being able to exploit their OS, so I can see them trying to patch it, to stop it working.

If the above is true, the spooks probably just burned a really useful exploit.

I mean if the code as written doesn't work when its not active and only the API does then why not patch the program so that it uses the API?

May require a substantial rewrite of elements of the backend to make it work with the Apple API but if that's what's required then JFDI its not the end of the world is it?

And surely that's what the Isle of Wight test is for? If the Isle of Wight test says this app as currently written isn't working as intended and it needs a rewrite to integrate the API then the Isle of Wight test has done its job.

We need this app yesterday, reworking it isn't going happen overnight and after reading the way it's been made it will probably need to be junked and rewritten which isn't a small undertaking. As I said above, we're about two weeks away from calling in the private sector heavyweights just like we did for testing. Why not do it now and get it done sooner so we can ease the lockdown sooner.

Yes we need this app yesterday and the NHSX app is ready. Its in a live trial already.

If the live trial is a success then roll it out. If its not then go to Plan B. It wouldn't surprise me if people are already working on Plan B just in case the trial doesn't work.

Is an alternative program ready already like the NHSX app is?

That app is ready because we've invested in it for the last few weeks. The original decision was incorrect, other countries have taken the Google/Apple approach and are ready to release as well. We know that will definitely work, ours is in an untested solution and when it doesn't work we'll be two to three weeks late to release.

PHE hasn't covered itself in glory throughout the crisis and Hancock has been too weak and too stupid to force the situation.

I don't think PHE are coding this app and GCHQ are world leaders at what they do. If GCHQ are confident this will work, then they must have a very good reason for thinking so.

It seems like all we know is that they were asked for advice, I don't think anyone knows what they think about the result???

Indeed but I trust their advice was sound.

We have a whole bunch of armchair generals confident this won't work but the experts (who needs them eh?) advised it will and its already through the alpha test stage and into a live beta test.

We will know soon enough.

Actually the experts in tech industry have said the government approach won't work, that's why they have provided a way to make it work. We've chosen to ignore that method in favour of one we've been told won't work by the tech industry.

Again and again our "experts" have been wrong. This is just another example.

I think it's more the experts switched off the functionality in the past and are now making it available again via a very prescribed API.

Now it's possible that when the functionality was disabled years ago that exploits existed that allowed the functionality to be used if so desired but I'm more cynical than others around here and it really wouldn't surprise me if no one tested whether two phones with switched off screens could communicate with each other.

That's entirely possible, have seen it myself before. It's quite normal for dev and QA teams to completely miss real-world usage patterns of an application.

The QA lab has all screensavers, battery savers etc switched off, devices are permanently plugged in etc. Testing outside the lab would be two people walking past each other in a corridor whist looking at the app in debug mode on the screens and watching the handshakes occur. It won't be until now that they realise phones in pockets or handbags in standby don't work.

Theuniondivvie said:

Unlucky..

https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1257613799772901408?s=20

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1212679425629859840

RobD said:

eek said:

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

edmundintokyo said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rottenborough said:

MaxPB said:

rottenborough said:

eek said:

Going back to the NHS App - Unless GCHQ have donated that 0 day exploit here is an overview of why it won't work https://www.theregister.co.uk/2020/05/05/uk_coronavirus_app/

Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.

Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.

I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.

Wow. Hancock is brave.

Hancock has previous form with Apple and Google. I'm sure that's played its role in the decision to ignore their efforts. I honestly hope this works because I hate this lockdown but I'm pretty sure it won't.

I've been told that our app also won't be internationally compatible which means British people will need to install multiple apps if they go overseas while the others can be made interoperable.

If this app fails like it looks like it will because of the problem of when the phone is asleep, then Hancock will have to resign. He is done.

If the app doesn't work while the phone is asleep then why not get IT bods to patch the app so that it does?

Because the OS are built to not allow this. The suggestion os that GCHQ have been called upon to use their expertise with this..thats code for use up an exploit that they will have in their toolbox for messing with peoples phones they spy on.

Problem is especially Apple are totally against anybody for any reason being able to exploit their OS, so I can see them trying to patch it, to stop it working.

If the above is true, the spooks probably just burned a really useful exploit.

I mean if the code as written doesn't work when its not active and only the API does then why not patch the program so that it uses the API?

May require a substantial rewrite of elements of the backend to make it work with the Apple API but if that's what's required then JFDI its not the end of the world is it?

And surely that's what the Isle of Wight test is for? If the Isle of Wight test says this app as currently written isn't working as intended and it needs a rewrite to integrate the API then the Isle of Wight test has done its job.

We need this app yesterday, reworking it isn't going happen overnight and after reading the way it's been made it will probably need to be junked and rewritten which isn't a small undertaking. As I said above, we're about two weeks away from calling in the private sector heavyweights just like we did for testing. Why not do it now and get it done sooner so we can ease the lockdown sooner.

Yes we need this app yesterday and the NHSX app is ready. Its in a live trial already.

If the live trial is a success then roll it out. If its not then go to Plan B. It wouldn't surprise me if people are already working on Plan B just in case the trial doesn't work.

Is an alternative program ready already like the NHSX app is?

That app is ready because we've invested in it for the last few weeks. The original decision was incorrect, other countries have taken the Google/Apple approach and are ready to release as well. We know that will definitely work, ours is in an untested solution and when it doesn't work we'll be two to three weeks late to release.

PHE hasn't covered itself in glory throughout the crisis and Hancock has been too weak and too stupid to force the situation.

I don't think PHE are coding this app and GCHQ are world leaders at what they do. If GCHQ are confident this will work, then they must have a very good reason for thinking so.

It seems like all we know is that they were asked for advice, I don't think anyone knows what they think about the result???

Indeed but I trust their advice was sound.

We have a whole bunch of armchair generals confident this won't work but the experts (who needs them eh?) advised it will and its already through the alpha test stage and into a live beta test.

We will know soon enough.

Actually the experts in tech industry have said the government approach won't work, that's why they have provided a way to make it work. We've chosen to ignore that method in favour of one we've been told won't work by the tech industry.

Again and again our "experts" have been wrong. This is just another example.

I think it's more the experts switched off the functionality in the past and are now making it available again via a very prescribed API.

Now it's possible that when the functionality was disabled years ago that exploits existed that allowed the functionality to be used if so desired but I'm more cynical than others around here and it really wouldn't surprise me if no one tested whether two phones with switched off screens could communicate with each other. This software is being written in a rush and while the really obvious use cases will have been covered that slightly less obvious use case could easily have been ignored (and believe me I've seen stupider things done in the past).

It really isn't a slightly less obvious use case though!

Trust me I've seen very senior clever people miss more obvious ones.

And it's worth noting that all the IT people on here are saying this is perfectly plausible, it's only none IT people who are saying no-one would be that stupid.

Pulpstar said:

Andy_Cooke said:

Malmesbury said:

NerysHughes said:

Andy_JS said:

BigRich posted an interesting comment about why Sweden has probably done the right thing, and nearly all of the replies were to do with a grammar dispute.

Sometimes people do not seem willing to engage in sciientific discussion on this site.The graph yesterday showing that the R figure was below 1 before the lockdown and that the reduction coincided with the hand washing advice I thought was really striking. Yet alI I got was abuse for discussing it and no one seemed interested in it. If science does not agree with someones opinion then it seems it is not worthy.

https://twitter.com/AlistairHaimes/status/1257303355199635456?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/8673/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-covid-19-it-s-not-your-fault/p1

The method of calculation of R in that graph is, almost certainly, not valid.

No error bars on the R values is a warning sign that this is not valid, as well.

Very spiky as well, which looks very strange.

Using a median incubation period of 5 days and time to fatality median/interquartile ranges from https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7095212/ , and the hospital deaths data from public health England, with some five-day smoothing and pulling out interquartile ranges over those five days) I got something that looked like this (bearing in mind that I'm not at all confident about the methodology):



Putting on dates of significant interventions, I got this:



1 - Handwashing advice given
2 - Premier Leaguse suspended and much other sport, elections deferred
3 - PM advises everyone against non-essential travel, avoiding pubs/restaurants/clubs, wfh if possible. Vulnerable people advised to self-isolate.
4 - Pubs, cafes, restaurants ordered to close immediately; nightclubs, theatres, gyms, cinemas, leisure entres told to close as soon as possible; last day of schools for most pupils. Furlough rules announced by Sunak.
5 - Announcement of lockdown with immediate effect

To be fair, the handwashing advice does seem to have been helpful to a degree...

Apparently small differences in R 1.4 and R 0.8 are night and day too. If the virus has a 5 day turnaround in financial terms R1.4 would be 46 trillion % APR whereas 0.8 would reduce a billion quid to less than a hundred quid.

A roulette wheel or FOBT based on one is basically a device with R 0.97 for your money. Expert card counters get banned for pushing their cash R from 0.98 on the blackjack tables to 1.01 or 1.02.

Indeed.

If Rt had been 0.8 since the peak, we'd be looking at about 350 deaths in English hospitals on the 28th of April (so far recorded: 309, so not far off), and a total of 11,442 deaths in hospital between 08/04 and 28/04 inclusive (actual deaths 11,628).
If Rt had been 1.4 since the peak, we'd be looking at 3,300 deaths in hospital on that day, and a total of 39,904 deaths between 08/04 and 28/04 inclusive. An extra 28,000+ deaths in those three weeks.

And still climbing.

eek said:

RobD said:

eek said:

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

edmundintokyo said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rottenborough said:

MaxPB said:

rottenborough said:

eek said:

Going back to the NHS App - Unless GCHQ have donated that 0 day exploit here is an overview of why it won't work https://www.theregister.co.uk/2020/05/05/uk_coronavirus_app/

Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.

Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.

I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.

Wow. Hancock is brave.

Hancock has previous form with Apple and Google. I'm sure that's played its role in the decision to ignore their efforts. I honestly hope this works because I hate this lockdown but I'm pretty sure it won't.

I've been told that our app also won't be internationally compatible which means British people will need to install multiple apps if they go overseas while the others can be made interoperable.

If this app fails like it looks like it will because of the problem of when the phone is asleep, then Hancock will have to resign. He is done.

If the app doesn't work while the phone is asleep then why not get IT bods to patch the app so that it does?

Because the OS are built to not allow this. The suggestion os that GCHQ have been called upon to use their expertise with this..thats code for use up an exploit that they will have in their toolbox for messing with peoples phones they spy on.

Problem is especially Apple are totally against anybody for any reason being able to exploit their OS, so I can see them trying to patch it, to stop it working.

If the above is true, the spooks probably just burned a really useful exploit.

I mean if the code as written doesn't work when its not active and only the API does then why not patch the program so that it uses the API?

May require a substantial rewrite of elements of the backend to make it work with the Apple API but if that's what's required then JFDI its not the end of the world is it?

And surely that's what the Isle of Wight test is for? If the Isle of Wight test says this app as currently written isn't working as intended and it needs a rewrite to integrate the API then the Isle of Wight test has done its job.

We need this app yesterday, reworking it isn't going happen overnight and after reading the way it's been made it will probably need to be junked and rewritten which isn't a small undertaking. As I said above, we're about two weeks away from calling in the private sector heavyweights just like we did for testing. Why not do it now and get it done sooner so we can ease the lockdown sooner.

Yes we need this app yesterday and the NHSX app is ready. Its in a live trial already.

If the live trial is a success then roll it out. If its not then go to Plan B. It wouldn't surprise me if people are already working on Plan B just in case the trial doesn't work.

Is an alternative program ready already like the NHSX app is?

That app is ready because we've invested in it for the last few weeks. The original decision was incorrect, other countries have taken the Google/Apple approach and are ready to release as well. We know that will definitely work, ours is in an untested solution and when it doesn't work we'll be two to three weeks late to release.

PHE hasn't covered itself in glory throughout the crisis and Hancock has been too weak and too stupid to force the situation.

I don't think PHE are coding this app and GCHQ are world leaders at what they do. If GCHQ are confident this will work, then they must have a very good reason for thinking so.

It seems like all we know is that they were asked for advice, I don't think anyone knows what they think about the result???

Indeed but I trust their advice was sound.

We have a whole bunch of armchair generals confident this won't work but the experts (who needs them eh?) advised it will and its already through the alpha test stage and into a live beta test.

We will know soon enough.

Actually the experts in tech industry have said the government approach won't work, that's why they have provided a way to make it work. We've chosen to ignore that method in favour of one we've been told won't work by the tech industry.

Again and again our "experts" have been wrong. This is just another example.

I think it's more the experts switched off the functionality in the past and are now making it available again via a very prescribed API.

Now it's possible that when the functionality was disabled years ago that exploits existed that allowed the functionality to be used if so desired but I'm more cynical than others around here and it really wouldn't surprise me if no one tested whether two phones with switched off screens could communicate with each other. This software is being written in a rush and while the really obvious use cases will have been covered that slightly less obvious use case could easily have been ignored (and believe me I've seen stupider things done in the past).

It really isn't a slightly less obvious use case though!

Trust me I've seen very senior clever people miss more obvious ones.

I'm just incredulous at the thought of it. Something so basic cannot have been overlooked.

https://twitter.com/pwyowell/status/1257646961861296128?s=21

FF43 said:

Andy_Cooke said:

Malmesbury said:

NerysHughes said:

Andy_JS said:

BigRich posted an interesting comment about why Sweden has probably done the right thing, and nearly all of the replies were to do with a grammar dispute.

Sometimes people do not seem willing to engage in sciientific discussion on this site.The graph yesterday showing that the R figure was below 1 before the lockdown and that the reduction coincided with the hand washing advice I thought was really striking. Yet alI I got was abuse for discussing it and no one seemed interested in it. If science does not agree with someones opinion then it seems it is not worthy.

https://twitter.com/AlistairHaimes/status/1257303355199635456?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/8673/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-covid-19-it-s-not-your-fault/p1

The method of calculation of R in that graph is, almost certainly, not valid.

No error bars on the R values is a warning sign that this is not valid, as well.

Very spiky as well, which looks very strange.

Using a median incubation period of 5 days and time to fatality median/interquartile ranges from https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7095212/ , and the hospital deaths data from public health England, with some five-day smoothing and pulling out interquartile ranges over those five days) I got something that looked like this (bearing in mind that I'm not at all confident about the methodology):



Putting on dates of significant interventions, I got this:



1 - Handwashing advice given
2 - Premier Leaguse suspended and much other sport, elections deferred
3 - PM advises everyone against non-essential travel, avoiding pubs/restaurants/clubs, wfh if possible. Vulnerable people advised to self-isolate.
4 - Pubs, cafes, restaurants ordered to close immediately; nightclubs, theatres, gyms, cinemas, leisure entres told to close as soon as possible; last day of schools for most pupils. Furlough rules announced by Sunak.
5 - Announcement of lockdown with immediate effect

To be fair, the handwashing advice does seem to have been helpful to a degree...

Andy_Cooke said:

Malmesbury said:

NerysHughes said:

Andy_JS said:

BigRich posted an interesting comment about why Sweden has probably done the right thing, and nearly all of the replies were to do with a grammar dispute.

Sometimes people do not seem willing to engage in sciientific discussion on this site.The graph yesterday showing that the R figure was below 1 before the lockdown and that the reduction coincided with the hand washing advice I thought was really striking. Yet alI I got was abuse for discussing it and no one seemed interested in it. If science does not agree with someones opinion then it seems it is not worthy.

https://twitter.com/AlistairHaimes/status/1257303355199635456?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/8673/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-covid-19-it-s-not-your-fault/p1

The method of calculation of R in that graph is, almost certainly, not valid.

No error bars on the R values is a warning sign that this is not valid, as well.

Very spiky as well, which looks very strange.

Using a median incubation period of 5 days and time to fatality median/interquartile ranges from https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7095212/ , and the hospital deaths data from public health England, with some five-day smoothing and pulling out interquartile ranges over those five days) I got something that looked like this (bearing in mind that I'm not at all confident about the methodology):



Putting on dates of significant interventions, I got this:



1 - Handwashing advice given
2 - Premier Leaguse suspended and much other sport, elections deferred
3 - PM advises everyone against non-essential travel, avoiding pubs/restaurants/clubs, wfh if possible. Vulnerable people advised to self-isolate.
4 - Pubs, cafes, restaurants ordered to close immediately; nightclubs, theatres, gyms, cinemas, leisure entres told to close as soon as possible; last day of schools for most pupils. Furlough rules announced by Sunak.
5 - Announcement of lockdown with immediate effect

To be fair, the handwashing advice does seem to have been helpful to a degree...

Issue here though is that if you use the cruder but more comprehensive ONS reported death figures, the fall would occur about two weeks later and the effect of the interventions would look very different.

Are you sure?

The ONS figures published earlier had the peaks occurring at the same time

FrancisUrquhart said:

https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1257598349097697280?s=19

JohnLilburne said:

Pulpstar said:

JohnLilburne said:

Gallowgate said:

If the app doesn’t work it’s going to be hilarious. Like hilariously incompetent. I’m literally laughing out loud at the thought of it.

I'm amused at all the lefties berating the government not getting into bed with evil global multinational capitalists. Obviously I hope the app works and does the job it is designed to do.

Gallows humour from Gallowgate perhaps

I didn't mean Gallowgate in particular. My Facebook feed is full of people who normally believe that global tech giants are only marginally less evil than Boris the Butcher and Dominic Cummings

Yet they are on Facebook the company who knows more about you then anyone on earth and probably more than St Peter and the Devil does.

BluestBlue said:

Dura_Ace said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Unlucky..

https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1257613799772901408?s=20

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1212679425629859840

The bad news for some is that we'll cure the coronavirus long before we cure ingrained bitterness and misanthropy.

Oh come on, that tweet wont ever stop being funny. British humour is all about self-depreciation and sarcasm. Get a grip.

Gallowgate said:

BluestBlue said:

Dura_Ace said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Unlucky..

https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1257613799772901408?s=20

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1212679425629859840

The bad news for some is that we'll cure the coronavirus long before we cure ingrained bitterness and misanthropy.

Oh come on, that tweet wont ever stop being funny. British humour is all about self-depreciation and sarcasm. Get a grip.

If those twats ever showed the slightest hint of _self_-deprecation, I might agree with you. As it is, I don't.

RobD said:

eek said:

RobD said:

eek said:

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

edmundintokyo said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rottenborough said:

MaxPB said:

rottenborough said:

eek said:

Going back to the NHS App - Unless GCHQ have donated that 0 day exploit here is an overview of why it won't work https://www.theregister.co.uk/2020/05/05/uk_coronavirus_app/

Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.

Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.

I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.

Wow. Hancock is brave.

Hancock has previous form with Apple and Google. I'm sure that's played its role in the decision to ignore their efforts. I honestly hope this works because I hate this lockdown but I'm pretty sure it won't.

I've been told that our app also won't be internationally compatible which means British people will need to install multiple apps if they go overseas while the others can be made interoperable.

If this app fails like it looks like it will because of the problem of when the phone is asleep, then Hancock will have to resign. He is done.

If the app doesn't work while the phone is asleep then why not get IT bods to patch the app so that it does?

Because the OS are built to not allow this. The suggestion os that GCHQ have been called upon to use their expertise with this..thats code for use up an exploit that they will have in their toolbox for messing with peoples phones they spy on.

Problem is especially Apple are totally against anybody for any reason being able to exploit their OS, so I can see them trying to patch it, to stop it working.

If the above is true, the spooks probably just burned a really useful exploit.

I mean if the code as written doesn't work when its not active and only the API does then why not patch the program so that it uses the API?

May require a substantial rewrite of elements of the backend to make it work with the Apple API but if that's what's required then JFDI its not the end of the world is it?

And surely that's what the Isle of Wight test is for? If the Isle of Wight test says this app as currently written isn't working as intended and it needs a rewrite to integrate the API then the Isle of Wight test has done its job.

We need this app yesterday, reworking it isn't going happen overnight and after reading the way it's been made it will probably need to be junked and rewritten which isn't a small undertaking. As I said above, we're about two weeks away from calling in the private sector heavyweights just like we did for testing. Why not do it now and get it done sooner so we can ease the lockdown sooner.

Yes we need this app yesterday and the NHSX app is ready. Its in a live trial already.

If the live trial is a success then roll it out. If its not then go to Plan B. It wouldn't surprise me if people are already working on Plan B just in case the trial doesn't work.

Is an alternative program ready already like the NHSX app is?

That app is ready because we've invested in it for the last few weeks. The original decision was incorrect, other countries have taken the Google/Apple approach and are ready to release as well. We know that will definitely work, ours is in an untested solution and when it doesn't work we'll be two to three weeks late to release.

PHE hasn't covered itself in glory throughout the crisis and Hancock has been too weak and too stupid to force the situation.

I don't think PHE are coding this app and GCHQ are world leaders at what they do. If GCHQ are confident this will work, then they must have a very good reason for thinking so.

It seems like all we know is that they were asked for advice, I don't think anyone knows what they think about the result???

Indeed but I trust their advice was sound.

We have a whole bunch of armchair generals confident this won't work but the experts (who needs them eh?) advised it will and its already through the alpha test stage and into a live beta test.

We will know soon enough.

Actually the experts in tech industry have said the government approach won't work, that's why they have provided a way to make it work. We've chosen to ignore that method in favour of one we've been told won't work by the tech industry.

Again and again our "experts" have been wrong. This is just another example.

I think it's more the experts switched off the functionality in the past and are now making it available again via a very prescribed API.

Now it's possible that when the functionality was disabled years ago that exploits existed that allowed the functionality to be used if so desired but I'm more cynical than others around here and it really wouldn't surprise me if no one tested whether two phones with switched off screens could communicate with each other. This software is being written in a rush and while the really obvious use cases will have been covered that slightly less obvious use case could easily have been ignored (and believe me I've seen stupider things done in the past).

It really isn't a slightly less obvious use case though!

Trust me I've seen very senior clever people miss more obvious ones.

I'm just incredulous at the thought of it. Something so basic cannot have been overlooked.

Oh, it very much can.

eek said:

RobD said:

eek said:

RobD said:

eek said:

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

edmundintokyo said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rottenborough said:

MaxPB said:

rottenborough said:

eek said:

Going back to the NHS App - Unless GCHQ have donated that 0 day exploit here is an overview of why it won't work https://www.theregister.co.uk/2020/05/05/uk_coronavirus_app/

Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.

Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.

I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.

Wow. Hancock is brave.

Hancock has previous form with Apple and Google. I'm sure that's played its role in the decision to ignore their efforts. I honestly hope this works because I hate this lockdown but I'm pretty sure it won't.

I've been told that our app also won't be internationally compatible which means British people will need to install multiple apps if they go overseas while the others can be made interoperable.

If this app fails like it looks like it will because of the problem of when the phone is asleep, then Hancock will have to resign. He is done.

If the app doesn't work while the phone is asleep then why not get IT bods to patch the app so that it does?

Because the OS are built to not allow this. The suggestion os that GCHQ have been called upon to use their expertise with this..thats code for use up an exploit that they will have in their toolbox for messing with peoples phones they spy on.

Problem is especially Apple are totally against anybody for any reason being able to exploit their OS, so I can see them trying to patch it, to stop it working.

If the above is true, the spooks probably just burned a really useful exploit.

I mean if the code as written doesn't work when its not active and only the API does then why not patch the program so that it uses the API?

May require a substantial rewrite of elements of the backend to make it work with the Apple API but if that's what's required then JFDI its not the end of the world is it?

And surely that's what the Isle of Wight test is for? If the Isle of Wight test says this app as currently written isn't working as intended and it needs a rewrite to integrate the API then the Isle of Wight test has done its job.

We need this app yesterday, reworking it isn't going happen overnight and after reading the way it's been made it will probably need to be junked and rewritten which isn't a small undertaking. As I said above, we're about two weeks away from calling in the private sector heavyweights just like we did for testing. Why not do it now and get it done sooner so we can ease the lockdown sooner.

Yes we need this app yesterday and the NHSX app is ready. Its in a live trial already.

If the live trial is a success then roll it out. If its not then go to Plan B. It wouldn't surprise me if people are already working on Plan B just in case the trial doesn't work.

Is an alternative program ready already like the NHSX app is?

That app is ready because we've invested in it for the last few weeks. The original decision was incorrect, other countries have taken the Google/Apple approach and are ready to release as well. We know that will definitely work, ours is in an untested solution and when it doesn't work we'll be two to three weeks late to release.

PHE hasn't covered itself in glory throughout the crisis and Hancock has been too weak and too stupid to force the situation.

I don't think PHE are coding this app and GCHQ are world leaders at what they do. If GCHQ are confident this will work, then they must have a very good reason for thinking so.

It seems like all we know is that they were asked for advice, I don't think anyone knows what they think about the result???

Indeed but I trust their advice was sound.

We have a whole bunch of armchair generals confident this won't work but the experts (who needs them eh?) advised it will and its already through the alpha test stage and into a live beta test.

We will know soon enough.

Actually the experts in tech industry have said the government approach won't work, that's why they have provided a way to make it work. We've chosen to ignore that method in favour of one we've been told won't work by the tech industry.

Again and again our "experts" have been wrong. This is just another example.

I think it's more the experts switched off the functionality in the past and are now making it available again via a very prescribed API.

Now it's possible that when the functionality was disabled years ago that exploits existed that allowed the functionality to be used if so desired but I'm more cynical than others around here and it really wouldn't surprise me if no one tested whether two phones with switched off screens could communicate with each other. This software is being written in a rush and while the really obvious use cases will have been covered that slightly less obvious use case could easily have been ignored (and believe me I've seen stupider things done in the past).

It really isn't a slightly less obvious use case though!

Trust me I've seen very senior clever people miss more obvious ones.

I'm just incredulous at the thought of it. Something so basic cannot have been overlooked.

As I said, you don't work in IT.

Very true, but on a project so major and important? Let's see what happens in the Isle of Wight.

BluestBlue said:

Dura_Ace said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Unlucky..

https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1257613799772901408?s=20

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1212679425629859840

The bad news for some is that we'll cure the coronavirus long before we cure ingrained bitterness and misanthropy.

If it turns out that the UK will have had the worst outcome, do you think it will have any effect on Boris?

Nigelb said:

eek said:

RobD said:

MaxPB said:

RobD said:

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rottenborough said:

MaxPB said:

rottenborough said:

eek said:

Going back to the NHS App - Unless GCHQ have donated that 0 day exploit here is an overview of why it won't work https://www.theregister.co.uk/2020/05/05/uk_coronavirus_app/

Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.

Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.

I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.

Wow. Hancock is brave.

Hancock has previous form with Apple and Google. I'm sure that's played its role in the decision to ignore their efforts. I honestly hope this works because I hate this lockdown but I'm pretty sure it won't.

I've been told that our app also won't be internationally compatible which means British people will need to install multiple apps if they go overseas while the others can be made interoperable.

If this app fails like it looks like it will because of the problem of when the phone is asleep, then Hancock will have to resign. He is done.

If the app doesn't work while the phone is asleep then why not get IT bods to patch the app so that it does?

Because the OS are built to not allow this. The suggestion os that GCHQ have been called upon to use their expertise with this..thats code for use up an exploit that they will have in their toolbox for messing with peoples phones they spy on.

Problem is especially Apple are totally against anybody for any reason being able to exploit their OS, so I can see them trying to patch it, to stop it working.

If the above is true, the spooks probably just burned a really useful exploit.

I mean if the code as written doesn't work when its not active and only the API does then why not patch the program so that it uses the API?

May require a substantial rewrite of elements of the backend to make it work with the Apple API but if that's what's required then JFDI its not the end of the world is it?

And surely that's what the Isle of Wight test is for? If the Isle of Wight test says this app as currently written isn't working as intended and it needs a rewrite to integrate the API then the Isle of Wight test has done its job.

We need this app yesterday, reworking it isn't going happen overnight and after reading the way it's been made it will probably need to be junked and rewritten which isn't a small undertaking. As I said above, we're about two weeks away from calling in the private sector heavyweights just like we did for testing. Why not do it now and get it done sooner so we can ease the lockdown sooner.

Yes we need this app yesterday and the NHSX app is ready. Its in a live trial already.

If the live trial is a success then roll it out. If its not then go to Plan B. It wouldn't surprise me if people are already working on Plan B just in case the trial doesn't work.

Is an alternative program ready already like the NHSX app is?

That app is ready because we've invested in it for the last few weeks. The original decision was incorrect, other countries have taken the Google/Apple approach and are ready to release as well. We know that will definitely work, ours is in an untested solution and when it doesn't work we'll be two to three weeks late to release.

PHE hasn't covered itself in glory throughout the crisis and Hancock has been too weak and too stupid to force the situation.

I don't think PHE are coding this app and GCHQ are world leaders at what they do. If GCHQ are confident this will work, then they must have a very good reason for thinking so.

PHE are making the app. GCHQ are providing the 0-day exploit. One that Apple could patch at any time. There's also the small matter of Google not having a similar exploit in Android which means the app definitely won't work be able to access the Bluetooth stack in the background meaning it will only work when the screen is on.

I simply can't believe it would get this far if that is the case.

I can. The incompetence of public sector tech is breathtaking sometimes.

But something so basic to the function of the application?

Yep because it's not immediately obvious.

Can I see the connection when both phones are switched on - yes.
Can I see the connection when one phone is switched on - yes.
Can I see the connection if both phones are switched off - not thought about and anyway we are out of phones to test with.

I've sat in meetings with 10 people in the past, walked away with 100's of pages of test scenarios and still discovered blooming obvious ones we missed after sleeping on it over night.

And none of the other people came up with it in the week I ummed and ohhed about whether we had missed something so obvious (we had and all grasped it as soon as I mentioned it but no-one else had picked up on it).

Yes, but wouldn't half an hour in the carpark with half a dozen volunteers have been as useful as a week or so with the entire population of the IoW to work that out ?

With a competent and experienced person devising the test scenarios, yes. Now do you see the problem?

https://twitter.com/richardgaisford/status/1257651765383704577

Virgin on the ridiculous.

366 new deaths in England.

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/05/COVID-19-daily-announced-deaths-5-May-2020.xlsx

Nigelb said:

RobD said:

JohnLilburne said:

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rottenborough said:

MaxPB said:

rottenborough said:

eek said:

Going back to the NHS App - Unless GCHQ have donated that 0 day exploit here is an overview of why it won't work https://www.theregister.co.uk/2020/05/05/uk_coronavirus_app/

Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.

Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.

I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.

Wow. Hancock is brave.

Hancock has previous form with Apple and Google. I'm sure that's played its role in the decision to ignore their efforts. I honestly hope this works because I hate this lockdown but I'm pretty sure it won't.

I've been told that our app also won't be internationally compatible which means British people will need to install multiple apps if they go overseas while the others can be made interoperable.

If this app fails like it looks like it will because of the problem of when the phone is asleep, then Hancock will have to resign. He is done.

If the app doesn't work while the phone is asleep then why not get IT bods to patch the app so that it does?

Because the OS are built to not allow this. The suggestion os that GCHQ have been called upon to use their expertise with this..thats code for use up an exploit that they will have in their toolbox for messing with peoples phones they spy on.

Problem is especially Apple are totally against anybody for any reason being able to exploit their OS, so I can see them trying to patch it, to stop it working.

If the above is true, the spooks probably just burned a really useful exploit.

I mean if the code as written doesn't work when its not active and only the API does then why not patch the program so that it uses the API?

May require a substantial rewrite of elements of the backend to make it work with the Apple API but if that's what's required then JFDI its not the end of the world is it?

And surely that's what the Isle of Wight test is for? If the Isle of Wight test says this app as currently written isn't working as intended and it needs a rewrite to integrate the API then the Isle of Wight test has done its job.

We need this app yesterday, reworking it isn't going happen overnight and after reading the way it's been made it will probably need to be junked and rewritten which isn't a small undertaking. As I said above, we're about two weeks away from calling in the private sector heavyweights just like we did for testing. Why not do it now and get it done sooner so we can ease the lockdown sooner.

Yes we need this app yesterday and the NHSX app is ready. Its in a live trial already.

If the live trial is a success then roll it out. If its not then go to Plan B. It wouldn't surprise me if people are already working on Plan B just in case the trial doesn't work.

Is an alternative program ready already like the NHSX app is?

That app is ready because we've invested in it for the last few weeks. The original decision was incorrect, other countries have taken the Google/Apple approach and are ready to release as well. We know that will definitely work, ours is in an untested solution and when it doesn't work we'll be two to three weeks late to release.

PHE hasn't covered itself in glory throughout the crisis and Hancock has been too weak and too stupid to force the situation.

I don't think PHE are coding this app and GCHQ are world leaders at what they do. If GCHQ are confident this will work, then they must have a very good reason for thinking so.

PHE are making the app. GCHQ are providing the 0-day exploit. One that Apple could patch at any time. There's also the small matter of Google not having a similar exploit in Android which means the app definitely won't work be able to access the Bluetooth stack in the background meaning it will only work when the screen is on.

So how do my Bluetooth headphones work when the screen is off? Or the car radio?

Different type of bluetooth I think, the one the NHS app uses is the low power one.

Recently headphones can too, I believe:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bluetooth_Low_Energy

Yes, but they are already paired and interact with the base system not via an app.

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

Nigelb said:

Gallowgate said:

If the app doesn’t work it’s going to be hilarious. Like hilariously incompetent. I’m literally laughing out loud at the thought of it.

I'm not.
I'm thinking of another very costly (this time economically rather than in lives lost) week or two wasted.

Exactly, this, like testing, is another poor decision that will mean an extra few weeks in lockdown. It's costing us countless billions and job losses.

If the test is successful and this app works as planned, having been available quicker and with more functionality than delaying to use the API, would you accept that it was a good decision saving weeks in lockdown and saving us countless billions and jobs?

The "if" is doing a lot of heavy lifting for you. We know that the other method works, we've made a decision to go from a surety to a possibility of working.

Theuniondivvie said:

BluestBlue said:

Dura_Ace said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Unlucky..

https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1257613799772901408?s=20

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1212679425629859840

The bad news for some is that we'll cure the coronavirus long before we cure ingrained bitterness and misanthropy.

However you tending your wee garden of joy, tolerance and love of your fellow man is an inspiration to us all.

When my soul turns black enough to post high casualty numbers to the accompaniment of sarky comments, I'll accept that criticism. Until then...

RobD said:

eek said:

RobD said:

eek said:

RobD said:

eek said:

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

edmundintokyo said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rottenborough said:

MaxPB said:

rottenborough said:

eek said:

Going back to the NHS App - Unless GCHQ have donated that 0 day exploit here is an overview of why it won't work https://www.theregister.co.uk/2020/05/05/uk_coronavirus_app/

Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.

Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.

I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.

Wow. Hancock is brave.

Hancock has previous form with Apple and Google. I'm sure that's played its role in the decision to ignore their efforts. I honestly hope this works because I hate this lockdown but I'm pretty sure it won't.

I've been told that our app also won't be internationally compatible which means British people will need to install multiple apps if they go overseas while the others can be made interoperable.

If this app fails like it looks like it will because of the problem of when the phone is asleep, then Hancock will have to resign. He is done.

If the app doesn't work while the phone is asleep then why not get IT bods to patch the app so that it does?

Because the OS are built to not allow this. The suggestion os that GCHQ have been called upon to use their expertise with this..thats code for use up an exploit that they will have in their toolbox for messing with peoples phones they spy on.

Problem is especially Apple are totally against anybody for any reason being able to exploit their OS, so I can see them trying to patch it, to stop it working.

If the above is true, the spooks probably just burned a really useful exploit.

I mean if the code as written doesn't work when its not active and only the API does then why not patch the program so that it uses the API?

May require a substantial rewrite of elements of the backend to make it work with the Apple API but if that's what's required then JFDI its not the end of the world is it?

And surely that's what the Isle of Wight test is for? If the Isle of Wight test says this app as currently written isn't working as intended and it needs a rewrite to integrate the API then the Isle of Wight test has done its job.

We need this app yesterday, reworking it isn't going happen overnight and after reading the way it's been made it will probably need to be junked and rewritten which isn't a small undertaking. As I said above, we're about two weeks away from calling in the private sector heavyweights just like we did for testing. Why not do it now and get it done sooner so we can ease the lockdown sooner.

Yes we need this app yesterday and the NHSX app is ready. Its in a live trial already.

If the live trial is a success then roll it out. If its not then go to Plan B. It wouldn't surprise me if people are already working on Plan B just in case the trial doesn't work.

Is an alternative program ready already like the NHSX app is?

That app is ready because we've invested in it for the last few weeks. The original decision was incorrect, other countries have taken the Google/Apple approach and are ready to release as well. We know that will definitely work, ours is in an untested solution and when it doesn't work we'll be two to three weeks late to release.

PHE hasn't covered itself in glory throughout the crisis and Hancock has been too weak and too stupid to force the situation.

I don't think PHE are coding this app and GCHQ are world leaders at what they do. If GCHQ are confident this will work, then they must have a very good reason for thinking so.

It seems like all we know is that they were asked for advice, I don't think anyone knows what they think about the result???

Indeed but I trust their advice was sound.

We have a whole bunch of armchair generals confident this won't work but the experts (who needs them eh?) advised it will and its already through the alpha test stage and into a live beta test.

We will know soon enough.

Actually the experts in tech industry have said the government approach won't work, that's why they have provided a way to make it work. We've chosen to ignore that method in favour of one we've been told won't work by the tech industry.

Again and again our "experts" have been wrong. This is just another example.

I think it's more the experts switched off the functionality in the past and are now making it available again via a very prescribed API.

Now it's possible that when the functionality was disabled years ago that exploits existed that allowed the functionality to be used if so desired but I'm more cynical than others around here and it really wouldn't surprise me if no one tested whether two phones with switched off screens could communicate with each other. This software is being written in a rush and while the really obvious use cases will have been covered that slightly less obvious use case could easily have been ignored (and believe me I've seen stupider things done in the past).

It really isn't a slightly less obvious use case though!

Trust me I've seen very senior clever people miss more obvious ones.

I'm just incredulous at the thought of it. Something so basic cannot have been overlooked.

As I said, you don't work in IT.

Very true, but on a project so major and important? Let's see what happens in the Isle of Wight.

I did not associate the Isle of Wight with experiments in cutting edge technology and behavioural science. Quite an imaginative choice. Cummings?

Endillion said:

This is an odd line of attack, if your point is that the NHS should have let the tech industry handle things.

It's not a line of attack - it's a statement that to me is obvious. In the headlong rush to get this app created my experience from 20+ years of working on IT projects tells me that its perfectly possible that blatantly obvious test cases will have been missed.

Now I hope that isn't the case but given that the test case is the sort of thing testers might miss (and remember both Sandpit and I have reason to believe this is the sort of thing tests might miss) it's perfectly possible that it might have been missed.

IshmaelZ said:

IoW is simply a hat tip to The Day of the Triffids.

I was thinking the other day that this entire Covid-19 story really is like something out of a John Wyndham novel.

This thread has encountered an unexpected error.

Theuniondivvie said:

BluestBlue said:

Theuniondivvie said:

BluestBlue said:

Dura_Ace said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Unlucky..

https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1257613799772901408?s=20

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1212679425629859840

The bad news for some is that we'll cure the coronavirus long before we cure ingrained bitterness and misanthropy.

However you tending your wee garden of joy, tolerance and love of your fellow man is an inspiration to us all.

When my soul turns black enough to post high casualty numbers to the accompaniment of sarky comments, I'll accept that criticism. Until then...

Sorry to be the one to break it to you but you accepting criticism means feckall. But you carry on bleating about why nasty, humourles, antisemitic, commie loving 'twats' won't give you and your bunch of incompetents the benefit of the doubt.

If only I were not given so much regular cause to do so...

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/richardgaisford/status/1257651765383704577

Virgin on the ridiculous.

Gatwick will be done for shortly

eek said:

Endillion said:

This is an odd line of attack, if your point is that the NHS should have let the tech industry handle things.

It's not a line of attack - it's a statement that to me is obvious. In the headlong rush to get this app created my experience from 20+ years of working on IT projects tells me that its perfectly possible that blatantly obvious test cases will have been missed.

Now I hope that isn't the case but given that the test case is the sort of thing testers might miss (and remember both Sandpit and I have reason to believe this is the sort of thing tests might miss) it's perfectly possible that it might have been missed.

I'd go further and say that blatantly-obvious-with-hindsight test case scenarios pretty much *always* get missed.

My quick 10-minute design for a small-scale test prior to IoW rollout.

Venue: closed mall or cinema, 100% CCTV coverage.

Number of volunteers: 50, none having had any prior involvement in the project
Supervisors: 10, not involved in dev or QA roles but with an understanding of how the app should work to an end user.

Instructions to volunteers: Bring a book. You will be in this area for several hours, every half an hour or so you'll go for a walk around and find a new place to sit down. Sometimes you'll sit close to someone else, or stop and talk to someone while walking. Don't touch the phone we give you, but put it where you'd normally put your phone.

CCTV room operators noting every interaction between people, and database engineers in same room noting DB hits (this is a centralised solution). Note all the positives, negatives, false positives and false negatives.

Morning session - we provide the phones, all the phone apps, central web app, comms server and database are in QA/debug mode.

Afternoon session - everything in 'production' mode, participants are given the app on their own phones and told to use them normally while repeating the experiment.

Next day, review all CCTV and DB logs in real time replay, looking for things missed. Note from CCTV actual times and distances between people, and compare to values for same stored in DB. Set one phone to "COVID-mode" and test all phone responses.

Refine time and distance scales to refine responses and alerts as required, repeat experiment as required.

I could spend all day putting in more details, but there's a good starting point.

RobD said:

contrarian said:

NerysHughes said:

Andy_JS said:

BigRich posted an interesting comment about why Sweden has probably done the right thing, and nearly all of the replies were to do with a grammar dispute.

Sometimes people do not seem willing to engage in sciientific discussion on this site.The graph yesterday showing that the R figure was below 1 before the lockdown and that the reduction coincided with the hand washing advice I thought was really striking. Yet alI I got was abuse for discussing it and no one seemed interested in it. If science does not agree with someones opinion then it seems it is not worthy.

https://twitter.com/AlistairHaimes/status/1257303355199635456?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/8673/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-covid-19-it-s-not-your-fault/p1

Very good point Nerys.

The thing is that the long lockdowners cannot be wrong, whatever the evidence against them.

If they are wrong, then that is tantamount to admitting they have, in effect, been amongst the biggest and most gullible dupes in history. They would be right up there with those who maintained that Stalin did not know about the purges and the gulags, and if he did would have stopped them immediately.

No one seemed interested in it? We've been discussing that plot for two days. The methodology behind it is questionable, and the official advice was the R was between 2 and 3 on the day the lockdown was announced. Anyone can make a plot on the internet these days, it doesn't make it right.

It doesn’t?! Crap, that was such a timesaver for me.

You’ll be telling me memes aren’t facts next.