Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.
Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.
I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.
Wow. Hancock is brave.
I have been warning about this for a while now.
I should add though Google / Apple are being dickheads as well. So wedded to their "privacy" concerns, they are the ones playing god and deciding for the world what will be allowed and what won't. There are big downsides to their approach in terms of government management of this pandemic.
Not giving the government unfettered access to user data is probably a good thing. Even in a crisis I'm happy for them not to play ball. They've given national governments a more than viable option, it's up to the state to take them up on it. That ours isn't is a failure and it just means in two weeks we'll be having a discussion about when the government is going to draft in the big guns from the private sector to bail out PHE.
Moth du Jour: Privet Hawkmoth. These are big beasts! Not uncommon - fair chance of attracting these to a suburban moth trap on a warm June/July evening.
While other outlets have Readers' Wives, we have a daily moth. Much more uplifting
When my friend's mother was suffering from dementia, she became convinced that "They are diluting my water!"
Dementia means never having to explain - with what?
As I said there are always funny moments. We had quite a few.
Unfortunately they go thru' the 'with what?' question in their own mind and then get angry because they have competing contradictory evidence.
We apparently had a full blown cinema in our basement (we don't have a basement). We spent ages with my Mum trying to find the stairs.
One night when I had to coax my mother back to the house from a neighbour I sat down for hours explaining to my mother what was happening and got to the point where she understood (it doesn't last). She then asked me whether she was going to get better. My stomach churned.
That is so harsh.
My mother had a form of dementia where she lived in a world of her own creation. She knew who I was to the end, which was a blessing, but I would get berated for not congratulating her on her Nobel prize...
I would have hoped Hancock would have learned from his experience of testing. PHE saying we got this minister...except they hadn't. It was only when they finally brought in the private sector have we seen a big ramp up in testing.
This app business feels the same. We are going with those that make apps for the NHS above the two biggest tech companies, who not only have the best software engineers in the world, they actually write the OS.
BigRich posted an interesting comment about why Sweden has probably done the right thing, and nearly all of the replies were to do with a grammar dispute.
Sometimes people do not seem willing to engage in sciientific discussion on this site.The graph yesterday showing that the R figure was below 1 before the lockdown and that the reduction coincided with the hand washing advice I thought was really striking. Yet alI I got was abuse for discussing it and no one seemed interested in it. If science does not agree with someones opinion then it seems it is not worthy.
The method of calculation of R in that graph is, almost certainly, not valid.
No error bars on the R values is a warning sign that this is not valid, as well.
Very spiky as well, which looks very strange.
Using a median incubation period of 5 days and time to fatality median/interquartile ranges from https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7095212/ , and the hospital deaths data from public health England, with some five-day smoothing and pulling out interquartile ranges over those five days) I got something that looked like this (bearing in mind that I'm not at all confident about the methodology):
Putting on dates of significant interventions, I got this:
1 - Handwashing advice given 2 - Premier Leaguse suspended and much other sport, elections deferred 3 - PM advises everyone against non-essential travel, avoiding pubs/restaurants/clubs, wfh if possible. Vulnerable people advised to self-isolate. 4 - Pubs, cafes, restaurants ordered to close immediately; nightclubs, theatres, gyms, cinemas, leisure entres told to close as soon as possible; last day of schools for most pupils. Furlough rules announced by Sunak. 5 - Announcement of lockdown with immediate effect
To be fair, the handwashing advice does seem to have been helpful to a degree...
Apparently small differences in R 1.4 and R 0.8 are night and day too. If the virus has a 5 day turnaround in financial terms R1.4 would be 46 trillion % APR whereas 0.8 would reduce a billion quid to less than a hundred quid.
A roulette wheel or FOBT based on one is basically a device with R 0.97 for your money. Expert card counters get banned for pushing their cash R from 0.98 on the blackjack tables to 1.01 or 1.02.
I don't think this plot is correct. The advice was the R was still above 2 the day the lockdown was announced.
11:08am Sage warned London ICU could have breached in 7 days The lockdown decision was taken by the Prime Minister after Sage was presented with modelling evidence suggesting intensive care units across the country would be swamped.
At the March 23 meeting of Sage, the day Boris Johnson announced the lockdown, experts considered a summary of the coronavirus modelling which warned "it is very likely that we will see ICU capacity in London breached by the end of the month, even if additional measures are put in place today".
"The rest of the UK is one-two weeks behind London. In the absence of additional measures being put into place in the next few days, it is likely that we will breach ICU capacity in other regions."
The modelling suggested the rapid increase in intensive care admissions suggested the reproduction number - the R rate - was higher than the 2.4 previously estimated and could have been more than three.
The lockdown was a decision taken on balance of risk and IMO was the correct one. If anything it should have come earlier. However, as to R being above 2 on 23rd March when it was announced, this seems unlikely to me if deaths peaked on or around 8th April.
I think we established yesterday that the peak was about a week later than that when care home deaths are taken into account.
Right thanks. So around 15th April.
This still seems to cast doubt on R being above 2 on 23rd March.
When my friend's mother was suffering from dementia, she became convinced that "They are diluting my water!"
Dementia means never having to explain - with what?
As I said there are always funny moments. We had quite a few.
Unfortunately they go thru' the 'with what?' question in their own mind and then get angry because they have competing contradictory evidence.
We apparently had a full blown cinema in our basement (we don't have a basement). We spent ages with my Mum trying to find the stairs.
One night when I had to coax my mother back to the house from a neighbour I sat down for hours explaining to my mother what was happening and got to the point where she understood (it doesn't last). She then asked me whether she was going to get better. My stomach churned.
That is so harsh.
My mother had a form of dementia where she lived in a world of her own creation. She knew who I was to the end, which was a blessing, but I would get berated for not congratulating her on her Nobel prize...
Moth du Jour: Privet Hawkmoth. These are big beasts! Not uncommon - fair chance of attracting these to a suburban moth trap on a warm June/July evening.
While other outlets have Readers' Wives, we have a daily moth. Much more uplifting
Which outlets have Readers` Wives?
Hold that thought until TSE is on line
No worries, I`ve already put your idea of PB.com Readers` Wives to my wife and she`s firmly put the kibosh on it.
Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.
Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.
I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.
Wow. Hancock is brave.
That article is 100% accurate - it describes exactly how bluetooth is restricted in the modern world (it's why you never see bluetooth advertising on phones as it was shut down on it's inception by those changes).
Unless you are using Apple / Googles approved approach you have nothing.
It's a shame the issue is too complex for a technophobe journalist to ask in the Daily press conference.
Complete with a demo of how the Aussie version fails because of lack of app focus or standby. https://twitter.com/phocks/status/1256354615051730944 Either they've somehow worked around this with Apple and Google (unlikely), they're using an operating system bug to work around it (possible, but really stupid and liable to get shut down), or they've not done even the basic quality assurance before committing to their Isle of Wight pilot scheme.
I don't see how this isn't going to be a complete failure. On the available evidence, I wouldn't want to be in charge of NHSX right now.
BigRich posted an interesting comment about why Sweden has probably done the right thing, and nearly all of the replies were to do with a grammar dispute.
Sometimes people do not seem willing to engage in sciientific discussion on this site.The graph yesterday showing that the R figure was below 1 before the lockdown and that the reduction coincided with the hand washing advice I thought was really striking. Yet alI I got was abuse for discussing it and no one seemed interested in it. If science does not agree with someones opinion then it seems it is not worthy.
The method of calculation of R in that graph is, almost certainly, not valid.
No error bars on the R values is a warning sign that this is not valid, as well.
Very spiky as well, which looks very strange.
Using a median incubation period of 5 days and time to fatality median/interquartile ranges from https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7095212/ , and the hospital deaths data from public health England, with some five-day smoothing and pulling out interquartile ranges over those five days) I got something that looked like this (bearing in mind that I'm not at all confident about the methodology):
Putting on dates of significant interventions, I got this:
1 - Handwashing advice given 2 - Premier Leaguse suspended and much other sport, elections deferred 3 - PM advises everyone against non-essential travel, avoiding pubs/restaurants/clubs, wfh if possible. Vulnerable people advised to self-isolate. 4 - Pubs, cafes, restaurants ordered to close immediately; nightclubs, theatres, gyms, cinemas, leisure entres told to close as soon as possible; last day of schools for most pupils. Furlough rules announced by Sunak. 5 - Announcement of lockdown with immediate effect
To be fair, the handwashing advice does seem to have been helpful to a degree...
Apparently small differences in R 1.4 and R 0.8 are night and day too. If the virus has a 5 day turnaround in financial terms R1.4 would be 46 trillion % APR whereas 0.8 would reduce a billion quid to less than a hundred quid.
A roulette wheel or FOBT based on one is basically a device with R 0.97 for your money. Expert card counters get banned for pushing their cash R from 0.98 on the blackjack tables to 1.01 or 1.02.
I don't think this plot is correct. The advice was the R was still above 2 the day the lockdown was announced.
11:08am Sage warned London ICU could have breached in 7 days The lockdown decision was taken by the Prime Minister after Sage was presented with modelling evidence suggesting intensive care units across the country would be swamped.
At the March 23 meeting of Sage, the day Boris Johnson announced the lockdown, experts considered a summary of the coronavirus modelling which warned "it is very likely that we will see ICU capacity in London breached by the end of the month, even if additional measures are put in place today".
"The rest of the UK is one-two weeks behind London. In the absence of additional measures being put into place in the next few days, it is likely that we will breach ICU capacity in other regions."
The modelling suggested the rapid increase in intensive care admissions suggested the reproduction number - the R rate - was higher than the 2.4 previously estimated and could have been more than three.
The lockdown was a decision taken on balance of risk and IMO was the correct one. If anything it should have come earlier. However, as to R being above 2 on 23rd March when it was announced, this seems unlikely to me if deaths peaked on or around 8th April.
They didn't peak then, in all settings the peak was later.
Ah OK. What is the approx consensus date for peak UK deaths then?
Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.
Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.
I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.
Wow. Hancock is brave.
That article is 100% accurate - it describes exactly how bluetooth is restricted in the modern world (it's why you never see bluetooth advertising on phones as it was shut down on it's inception by those changes).
Unless you are using Apple / Googles approved approach you have nothing.
It's a shame the issue is too complex for a technophobe journalist to ask in the Daily press conference.
Complete with a demo of how the Aussie version fails because of lack of app focus or standby. https://twitter.com/phocks/status/1256354615051730944 Either they've somehow worked around this with Apple and Google (unlikely), they're using an operating system bug to work around it (possible, but really stupid and liable to get shut down), or they've not done even the basic quality assurance before committing to their Isle of Wight pilot scheme.
I don't see how this isn't going to be a complete failure. On the available evidence, I wouldn't want to be in charge of NHSX right now.
It depends were I in charge of NHSX I would have documents pinning the blame back to Hancock.
Do we know if NHSX offered to create the app or did Hancock insist they do it.
Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.
Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.
I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.
Wow. Hancock is brave.
That article is 100% accurate - it describes exactly how bluetooth is restricted in the modern world (it's why you never see bluetooth advertising on phones as it was shut down on it's inception by those changes).
Unless you are using Apple / Googles approved approach you have nothing.
It's a shame the issue is too complex for a technophobe journalist to ask in the Daily press conference.
Complete with a demo of how the Aussie version fails because of lack of app focus or standby. https://twitter.com/phocks/status/1256354615051730944 Either they've somehow worked around this with Apple and Google (unlikely), they're using an operating system bug to work around it (possible, but really stupid and liable to get shut down), or they've not done even the basic quality assurance before committing to their Isle of Wight pilot scheme.
I don't see how this isn't going to be a complete failure. On the available evidence, I wouldn't want to be in charge of NHSX right now.
It depends were I in charge of NHSX I would have documents pinning the blame back to Hancock.
I'm sure Hancock has got a whole chain of emails assuring him that PHE have it in hand and there's nothing to worry about.
Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.
Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.
I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.
Wow. Hancock is brave.
Hancock has previous form with Apple and Google. I'm sure that's played its role in the decision to ignore their efforts. I honestly hope this works because I hate this lockdown but I'm pretty sure it won't.
I've been told that our app also won't be internationally compatible which means British people will need to install multiple apps if they go overseas while the others can be made interoperable.
If this app fails like it looks like it will because of the problem of when the phone is asleep, then Hancock will have to resign. He is done.
If the app doesn't work while the phone is asleep then why not get IT bods to patch the app so that it does?
Because the OS are built to not allow this. The suggestion os that GCHQ have been called upon to use their expertise with this..thats code for use up an exploit that they will have in their toolbox for messing with peoples phones they spy on.
Problem is especially Apple are totally against anybody for any reason being able to exploit their OS, so I can see them trying to patch it, to stop it working.
If the above is true, the spooks probably just burned a really useful exploit.
Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.
Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.
I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.
Wow. Hancock is brave.
I have been warning about this for a while now.
I should add though Google / Apple are being dickheads as well. So wedded to their "privacy" concerns, they are the ones playing god and deciding for the world what will be allowed and what won't. There are big downsides to their approach in terms of government management of this pandemic.
And we're having to buy PPE from China too further worsening our balance of payments.
Nevertheless though Google and Apple aren't perfect they're the only companies with the size, scope and crucially almost the entire phone OS market (between them) to immediately implement a solution we needed yesterday.
BigRich posted an interesting comment about why Sweden has probably done the right thing, and nearly all of the replies were to do with a grammar dispute.
Sometimes people do not seem willing to engage in sciientific discussion on this site.The graph yesterday showing that the R figure was below 1 before the lockdown and that the reduction coincided with the hand washing advice I thought was really striking. Yet alI I got was abuse for discussing it and no one seemed interested in it. If science does not agree with someones opinion then it seems it is not worthy.
The method of calculation of R in that graph is, almost certainly, not valid.
No error bars on the R values is a warning sign that this is not valid, as well.
Very spiky as well, which looks very strange.
Using a median incubation period of 5 days and time to fatality median/interquartile ranges from https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7095212/ , and the hospital deaths data from public health England, with some five-day smoothing and pulling out interquartile ranges over those five days) I got something that looked like this (bearing in mind that I'm not at all confident about the methodology):
Putting on dates of significant interventions, I got this:
1 - Handwashing advice given 2 - Premier Leaguse suspended and much other sport, elections deferred 3 - PM advises everyone against non-essential travel, avoiding pubs/restaurants/clubs, wfh if possible. Vulnerable people advised to self-isolate. 4 - Pubs, cafes, restaurants ordered to close immediately; nightclubs, theatres, gyms, cinemas, leisure entres told to close as soon as possible; last day of schools for most pupils. Furlough rules announced by Sunak. 5 - Announcement of lockdown with immediate effect
To be fair, the handwashing advice does seem to have been helpful to a degree...
Apparently small differences in R 1.4 and R 0.8 are night and day too. If the virus has a 5 day turnaround in financial terms R1.4 would be 46 trillion % APR whereas 0.8 would reduce a billion quid to less than a hundred quid.
A roulette wheel or FOBT based on one is basically a device with R 0.97 for your money. Expert card counters get banned for pushing their cash R from 0.98 on the blackjack tables to 1.01 or 1.02.
I don't think this plot is correct. The advice was the R was still above 2 the day the lockdown was announced.
11:08am Sage warned London ICU could have breached in 7 days The lockdown decision was taken by the Prime Minister after Sage was presented with modelling evidence suggesting intensive care units across the country would be swamped.
At the March 23 meeting of Sage, the day Boris Johnson announced the lockdown, experts considered a summary of the coronavirus modelling which warned "it is very likely that we will see ICU capacity in London breached by the end of the month, even if additional measures are put in place today".
"The rest of the UK is one-two weeks behind London. In the absence of additional measures being put into place in the next few days, it is likely that we will breach ICU capacity in other regions."
The modelling suggested the rapid increase in intensive care admissions suggested the reproduction number - the R rate - was higher than the 2.4 previously estimated and could have been more than three.
The lockdown was a decision taken on balance of risk and IMO was the correct one. If anything it should have come earlier. However, as to R being above 2 on 23rd March when it was announced, this seems unlikely to me if deaths peaked on or around 8th April.
I think we established yesterday that the peak was about a week later than that when care home deaths are taken into account.
Right thanks. So around 15th April.
This still seems to cast doubt on R being above 2 on 23rd March.
I guess we`ll never know. Enough uncertainty on this to enable the pro-lockdowners to claim victory AND the lockdown skeptics to claim victory. How lovely.
Would handwashing etc and sensible social distancing have been sufficient? Who knows? But surely fair to say that lockdown has brought infections down faster - yes?
BigRich posted an interesting comment about why Sweden has probably done the right thing, and nearly all of the replies were to do with a grammar dispute.
Sometimes people do not seem willing to engage in sciientific discussion on this site.The graph yesterday showing that the R figure was below 1 before the lockdown and that the reduction coincided with the hand washing advice I thought was really striking. Yet alI I got was abuse for discussing it and no one seemed interested in it. If science does not agree with someones opinion then it seems it is not worthy.
The method of calculation of R in that graph is, almost certainly, not valid.
No error bars on the R values is a warning sign that this is not valid, as well.
Very spiky as well, which looks very strange.
Using a median incubation period of 5 days and time to fatality median/interquartile ranges from https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7095212/ , and the hospital deaths data from public health England, with some five-day smoothing and pulling out interquartile ranges over those five days) I got something that looked like this (bearing in mind that I'm not at all confident about the methodology):
Putting on dates of significant interventions, I got this:
1 - Handwashing advice given 2 - Premier Leaguse suspended and much other sport, elections deferred 3 - PM advises everyone against non-essential travel, avoiding pubs/restaurants/clubs, wfh if possible. Vulnerable people advised to self-isolate. 4 - Pubs, cafes, restaurants ordered to close immediately; nightclubs, theatres, gyms, cinemas, leisure entres told to close as soon as possible; last day of schools for most pupils. Furlough rules announced by Sunak. 5 - Announcement of lockdown with immediate effect
To be fair, the handwashing advice does seem to have been helpful to a degree...
Apparently small differences in R 1.4 and R 0.8 are night and day too. If the virus has a 5 day turnaround in financial terms R1.4 would be 46 trillion % APR whereas 0.8 would reduce a billion quid to less than a hundred quid.
A roulette wheel or FOBT based on one is basically a device with R 0.97 for your money. Expert card counters get banned for pushing their cash R from 0.98 on the blackjack tables to 1.01 or 1.02.
I don't think this plot is correct. The advice was the R was still above 2 the day the lockdown was announced.
11:08am Sage warned London ICU could have breached in 7 days The lockdown decision was taken by the Prime Minister after Sage was presented with modelling evidence suggesting intensive care units across the country would be swamped.
At the March 23 meeting of Sage, the day Boris Johnson announced the lockdown, experts considered a summary of the coronavirus modelling which warned "it is very likely that we will see ICU capacity in London breached by the end of the month, even if additional measures are put in place today".
"The rest of the UK is one-two weeks behind London. In the absence of additional measures being put into place in the next few days, it is likely that we will breach ICU capacity in other regions."
The modelling suggested the rapid increase in intensive care admissions suggested the reproduction number - the R rate - was higher than the 2.4 previously estimated and could have been more than three.
The lockdown was a decision taken on balance of risk and IMO was the correct one. If anything it should have come earlier. However, as to R being above 2 on 23rd March when it was announced, this seems unlikely to me if deaths peaked on or around 8th April.
An alternative would have been to lock down people in vulnerable categories and allow healthy people to continue running the economy.
But what you call "Healthy People" are being hospitalised, "Healthy People" are being put on ventilators. Some "Healthy People" die of covid 19. How many more doctors and nurses would have died under your alternative?
Or would you have locked them down too? That would be an absolute night mare with the virus ripping through the low risk population and no medical staff available to treat them.
Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.
Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.
I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.
Wow. Hancock is brave.
Hancock has previous form with Apple and Google. I'm sure that's played its role in the decision to ignore their efforts. I honestly hope this works because I hate this lockdown but I'm pretty sure it won't.
I've been told that our app also won't be internationally compatible which means British people will need to install multiple apps if they go overseas while the others can be made interoperable.
If this app fails like it looks like it will because of the problem of when the phone is asleep, then Hancock will have to resign. He is done.
Why should Hancock resign because of a technical problem with a phone app?
I thought the whole point of this NHS app is that GCHQ HAVE donated a zero-day exploit for it to work, I also assume Apple are letting it slide as they approved the app on the App Store.
BigRich posted an interesting comment about why Sweden has probably done the right thing, and nearly all of the replies were to do with a grammar dispute.
Sometimes people do not seem willing to engage in sciientific discussion on this site.The graph yesterday showing that the R figure was below 1 before the lockdown and that the reduction coincided with the hand washing advice I thought was really striking. Yet alI I got was abuse for discussing it and no one seemed interested in it. If science does not agree with someones opinion then it seems it is not worthy.
The method of calculation of R in that graph is, almost certainly, not valid.
No error bars on the R values is a warning sign that this is not valid, as well.
Very spiky as well, which looks very strange.
Using a median incubation period of 5 days and time to fatality median/interquartile ranges from https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7095212/ , and the hospital deaths data from public health England, with some five-day smoothing and pulling out interquartile ranges over those five days) I got something that looked like this (bearing in mind that I'm not at all confident about the methodology):
Putting on dates of significant interventions, I got this:
1 - Handwashing advice given 2 - Premier Leaguse suspended and much other sport, elections deferred 3 - PM advises everyone against non-essential travel, avoiding pubs/restaurants/clubs, wfh if possible. Vulnerable people advised to self-isolate. 4 - Pubs, cafes, restaurants ordered to close immediately; nightclubs, theatres, gyms, cinemas, leisure entres told to close as soon as possible; last day of schools for most pupils. Furlough rules announced by Sunak. 5 - Announcement of lockdown with immediate effect
To be fair, the handwashing advice does seem to have been helpful to a degree...
The handwashing advice seems massively significant to me. I guess the question becomes this: was lockdown (Event 5 in your graph (or perhaps 4?)) necessary to ensure that the NHS was not overwhelmed (given that was the reason given for the lockdown in the first place).
I think that without the lockdown, elements 3 and 4 would not really have stuck. To be honest, 4 is probably the most important one as it contains the furlough rules and the closure of schools (for most pupils). Without the lockdown, more people would be working (I guess) and more children would need to go to school.
And an Rt over 1 means that we never reach a peak; it keeps on climbing.
Lockdown started on 24th March. So if deaths peaked on 8th April new infections probably peaked before the start of lockdown - does that not follow?
Impossible to tell.
There are 14 days between 24/3 and 8/4 which is enough to get sick and die. But it doesn't follow the same timetable for everyone.
Peak infections was probably around 24/3 give or take a few days.
That sort of thing. Peak deaths was 15th April (when adjusted for care homes) therefore peak infections was approx when lockdown was starting. Meaning (probably) that the lockdown was not needed to save the NHS. Not a certain conclusion but a tenable one. NB: It was a decision taken on the balance of risk and IMO was correct even if it was incorrect. Should have been done earlier if anything.
I thought the whole point of this NHS app is that GCHQ HAVE donated a zero-day exploit for it to work, I also assume Apple are letting it slide as they approved the app on the App Store.
Having to have the App running on the face is a killer though even if the exploit is never fixed. I use my phone for Golf Clash, Risk and Twitter not to run an NHS app at all times.
I thought the whole point of this NHS app is that GCHQ HAVE donated a zero-day exploit for it to work, I also assume Apple are letting it slide as they approved the app on the App Store.
You are assuming a level of competency I don't believe our Government has. We are about to be presented with a tracking app that is about as much use as a chocolate teapot (works once when the app is in the foreground, never works ever again).
Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.
Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.
I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.
Wow. Hancock is brave.
Hancock has previous form with Apple and Google. I'm sure that's played its role in the decision to ignore their efforts. I honestly hope this works because I hate this lockdown but I'm pretty sure it won't.
I've been told that our app also won't be internationally compatible which means British people will need to install multiple apps if they go overseas while the others can be made interoperable.
If this app fails like it looks like it will because of the problem of when the phone is asleep, then Hancock will have to resign. He is done.
You may be missing the point of the App. It not that the App works - oh no - obviously it won`t - it`s that the users FEEL that it works and feel more comfortable coming out of lockdown. Nudge unit?
Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.
Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.
I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.
Wow. Hancock is brave.
Hancock has previous form with Apple and Google. I'm sure that's played its role in the decision to ignore their efforts. I honestly hope this works because I hate this lockdown but I'm pretty sure it won't.
I've been told that our app also won't be internationally compatible which means British people will need to install multiple apps if they go overseas while the others can be made interoperable.
If this app fails like it looks like it will because of the problem of when the phone is asleep, then Hancock will have to resign. He is done.
Why should Hancock resign because of a technical problem with a phone app?
Because the tech industry have offered a solution, he's chosen not to use it.
I thought the whole point of this NHS app is that GCHQ HAVE donated a zero-day exploit for it to work, I also assume Apple are letting it slide as they approved the app on the App Store.
That is the suggestion. The thing is it might still come with limitations e.g. still drains battery more or only works 90% of the time. For the spooks, the above is probably still good enough for what they require e.g. tracking a terrorist suspect.
However for this, it needs to work as close to 100% of the time.
I thought the whole point of this NHS app is that GCHQ HAVE donated a zero-day exploit for it to work, I also assume Apple are letting it slide as they approved the app on the App Store.
Having to have the App running on the face is a killer though even if the exploit is never fixed. I use my phone for Golf Clash, Risk and Twitter not to run an NHS app at all times.
But I thought the whole point of the exploit is that it keeps the app live in the background.
When my friend's mother was suffering from dementia, she became convinced that "They are diluting my water!"
Dementia means never having to explain - with what?
As I said there are always funny moments. We had quite a few.
Unfortunately they go thru' the 'with what?' question in their own mind and then get angry because they have competing contradictory evidence.
We apparently had a full blown cinema in our basement (we don't have a basement). We spent ages with my Mum trying to find the stairs.
One night when I had to coax my mother back to the house from a neighbour I sat down for hours explaining to my mother what was happening and got to the point where she understood (it doesn't last). She then asked me whether she was going to get better. My stomach churned.
It took my far longer than it ought that the kindest, and most effective way to engage was with my father's emotions rather than trying to correct, or make sense of anything to him.
There seems to be a strong hippy element to the anti lockdowners in Germany which doesn't seem to be present in eg the USA. Always interesting how cultural differences express themselves.
Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.
Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.
I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.
Wow. Hancock is brave.
Hancock has previous form with Apple and Google. I'm sure that's played its role in the decision to ignore their efforts. I honestly hope this works because I hate this lockdown but I'm pretty sure it won't.
I've been told that our app also won't be internationally compatible which means British people will need to install multiple apps if they go overseas while the others can be made interoperable.
If this app fails like it looks like it will because of the problem of when the phone is asleep, then Hancock will have to resign. He is done.
You may be missing the point of the App. It not that the App works - oh no - obviously it won`t - it`s that the users FEEL that it works and feel more comfortable coming out of lockdown. Nudge unit?
Electronic homeopathy if you like.
Which is frigging useless when you could have offered the same homeopathy with an app which had a chance of working attached to a name I was more likely to trust.
Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.
Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.
I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.
Wow. Hancock is brave.
Hancock has previous form with Apple and Google. I'm sure that's played its role in the decision to ignore their efforts. I honestly hope this works because I hate this lockdown but I'm pretty sure it won't.
I've been told that our app also won't be internationally compatible which means British people will need to install multiple apps if they go overseas while the others can be made interoperable.
If this app fails like it looks like it will because of the problem of when the phone is asleep, then Hancock will have to resign. He is done.
If the app doesn't work while the phone is asleep then why not get IT bods to patch the app so that it does?
Because the OS are built to not allow this. The suggestion os that GCHQ have been called upon to use their expertise with this..thats code for use up an exploit that they will have in their toolbox for messing with peoples phones they spy on.
Problem is especially Apple are totally against anybody for any reason being able to exploit their OS, so I can see them trying to patch it, to stop it working.
If the above is true, the spooks probably just burned a really useful exploit.
I mean if the code as written doesn't work when its not active and only the API does then why not patch the program so that it uses the API?
May require a substantial rewrite of elements of the backend to make it work with the Apple API but if that's what's required then JFDI its not the end of the world is it?
And surely that's what the Isle of Wight test is for? If the Isle of Wight test says this app as currently written isn't working as intended and it needs a rewrite to integrate the API then the Isle of Wight test has done its job.
I thought the whole point of this NHS app is that GCHQ HAVE donated a zero-day exploit for it to work, I also assume Apple are letting it slide as they approved the app on the App Store.
I don't think there's any evidence for this claim. The suggestion that Apple would let an exploit slide seems unlikely, since everyone else could reverse engineer it and use it for non-government-sanctioned evil.
The Register piece suggests they're using a trick where the app would normally go to sleep, but it hopefully gets woken up by interaction with *someone else* who is also using the same app.
Is their a book anywhere for next Cabinet minister out?
Hancock must now be very short.
Smarkets has a market. DYOR since I've no experience of betting with them. There is almost no liquidity but Hancock is 6.8 second best behind Priti Patel.
(Smarkets and Betway both have markets on whether the next Cabinet minister will be an Oxbridge graduate.)
When my friend's mother was suffering from dementia, she became convinced that "They are diluting my water!"
Dementia means never having to explain - with what?
As I said there are always funny moments. We had quite a few.
Unfortunately they go thru' the 'with what?' question in their own mind and then get angry because they have competing contradictory evidence.
We apparently had a full blown cinema in our basement (we don't have a basement). We spent ages with my Mum trying to find the stairs.
One night when I had to coax my mother back to the house from a neighbour I sat down for hours explaining to my mother what was happening and got to the point where she understood (it doesn't last). She then asked me whether she was going to get better. My stomach churned.
It took my far longer than it ought that the kindest, and most effective way to engage was with my father's emotions rather than trying to correct, or make sense of anything to him.
Yep, I worry that I never really achieved it with my mother. Be kind, be patient, be there, but perhaps connecting on what ever level that person is able to manage is the hardest thing.
There seems to be a strong hippy element to the anti lockdowners in Germany which doesn't seem to be present in eg the USA. Always interesting how cultural differences express themselves.
Infected in France between 14 and 22 December. So there was somebody in France infected with it before that date. It is starting to stretch back quite a way now.
So much for the supposed "Patient Zero" in Wuhan at the seafood market feeling ill on 10th December.... But then, with the CIA having its "WTF???" report in November, we already knew that was bollocks.
Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.
Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.
I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.
Wow. Hancock is brave.
That article is 100% accurate - it describes exactly how bluetooth is restricted in the modern world (it's why you never see bluetooth advertising on phones as it was shut down on it's inception by those changes).
Unless you are using Apple / Googles approved approach you have nothing.
It's a shame the issue is too complex for a technophobe journalist to ask in the Daily press conference.
Complete with a demo of how the Aussie version fails because of lack of app focus or standby. https://twitter.com/phocks/status/1256354615051730944 Either they've somehow worked around this with Apple and Google (unlikely), they're using an operating system bug to work around it (possible, but really stupid and liable to get shut down), or they've not done even the basic quality assurance before committing to their Isle of Wight pilot scheme.
I don't see how this isn't going to be a complete failure. On the available evidence, I wouldn't want to be in charge of NHSX right now.
It depends were I in charge of NHSX I would have documents pinning the blame back to Hancock.
Do we know if NHSX offered to create the app or did Hancock insist they do it.
It would indeed be the typical public sector attitude, to focus more on who gets blamed for failure than making the project successful in the first place. Let's say that NHS IT projects don't exactly have much of a reputation.
If it's anything like PPE or testing, NHS and PHE management assured the minister that they knew exactly what they were doing, he had nothing to worry about and all would be achieved quickly.
Something that only changed when the Secretary of State stood up outside No.10 and made a firm but ambitious commitment on testing numbers against the advice of said managers, and sent in half of the Cabinet Office to make sure it happened.
The lockdown, PPE and testing discussions all had a number of unforeseen variables that we had to learn and adapt to in the middle of a crisis. The app is a known problem with a known solution that's being ignored in favour of not-invented-here syndrome, it's like the US CDC insisting on making their own tests even after they had to recall millions of faulty ones in the first batch.
Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.
Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.
I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.
Wow. Hancock is brave.
Hancock has previous form with Apple and Google. I'm sure that's played its role in the decision to ignore their efforts. I honestly hope this works because I hate this lockdown but I'm pretty sure it won't.
I've been told that our app also won't be internationally compatible which means British people will need to install multiple apps if they go overseas while the others can be made interoperable.
If this app fails like it looks like it will because of the problem of when the phone is asleep, then Hancock will have to resign. He is done.
If the app doesn't work while the phone is asleep then why not get IT bods to patch the app so that it does?
Because the OS are built to not allow this. The suggestion os that GCHQ have been called upon to use their expertise with this..thats code for use up an exploit that they will have in their toolbox for messing with peoples phones they spy on.
Problem is especially Apple are totally against anybody for any reason being able to exploit their OS, so I can see them trying to patch it, to stop it working.
If the above is true, the spooks probably just burned a really useful exploit.
I mean if the code as written doesn't work when its not active and only the API does then why not patch the program so that it uses the API?
May require a substantial rewrite of elements of the backend to make it work with the Apple API but if that's what's required then JFDI its not the end of the world is it?
And surely that's what the Isle of Wight test is for? If the Isle of Wight test says this app as currently written isn't working as intended and it needs a rewrite to integrate the API then the Isle of Wight test has done its job.
We need this app yesterday, reworking it isn't going happen overnight and after reading the way it's been made it will probably need to be junked and rewritten which isn't a small undertaking. As I said, we're about two weeks away from calling in the private sector heavyweights just like we did for testing. Why not do it now and get it done sooner so we can ease the lockdown sooner.
I thought the whole point of this NHS app is that GCHQ HAVE donated a zero-day exploit for it to work, I also assume Apple are letting it slide as they approved the app on the App Store.
Having to have the App running on the face is a killer though even if the exploit is never fixed. I use my phone for Golf Clash, Risk and Twitter not to run an NHS app at all times.
I am sure GCHQ have exploits to enable silent running of bluetooth / GPS location. If the wannabe terrorist knowing an app is running all the time, even the thickest of ones will work it out.
The problem will be world of difference between an exploit to track a few 1,0000 individuals most of the time and the whole of the population 100% of the time.
Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.
Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.
I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.
Wow. Hancock is brave.
Hancock has previous form with Apple and Google. I'm sure that's played its role in the decision to ignore their efforts. I honestly hope this works because I hate this lockdown but I'm pretty sure it won't.
I've been told that our app also won't be internationally compatible which means British people will need to install multiple apps if they go overseas while the others can be made interoperable.
If this app fails like it looks like it will because of the problem of when the phone is asleep, then Hancock will have to resign. He is done.
Why should Hancock resign because of a technical problem with a phone app?
Because the tech industry have offered a solution, he's chosen not to use it.
They haven't. They've offered an API, not a program.
I'm not sure the timescale of that offer and the government's plans either but if the government had already done a lot of work on their program before the API announcement then should that work have just been abandoned and start again from scratch?
There seems to be a strong hippy element to the anti lockdowners in Germany which doesn't seem to be present in eg the USA. Always interesting how cultural differences express themselves.
Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.
Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.
I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.
Wow. Hancock is brave.
Hancock has previous form with Apple and Google. I'm sure that's played its role in the decision to ignore their efforts. I honestly hope this works because I hate this lockdown but I'm pretty sure it won't.
I've been told that our app also won't be internationally compatible which means British people will need to install multiple apps if they go overseas while the others can be made interoperable.
If this app fails like it looks like it will because of the problem of when the phone is asleep, then Hancock will have to resign. He is done.
If the app doesn't work while the phone is asleep then why not get IT bods to patch the app so that it does?
Because the OS are built to not allow this. The suggestion os that GCHQ have been called upon to use their expertise with this..thats code for use up an exploit that they will have in their toolbox for messing with peoples phones they spy on.
Problem is especially Apple are totally against anybody for any reason being able to exploit their OS, so I can see them trying to patch it, to stop it working.
If the above is true, the spooks probably just burned a really useful exploit.
I mean if the code as written doesn't work when its not active and only the API does then why not patch the program so that it uses the API?
May require a substantial rewrite of elements of the backend to make it work with the Apple API but if that's what's required then JFDI its not the end of the world is it?
And surely that's what the Isle of Wight test is for? If the Isle of Wight test says this app as currently written isn't working as intended and it needs a rewrite to integrate the API then the Isle of Wight test has done its job.
Because if you use the API it has restrictions on it's use that stops you collecting the location information the NHS want.
So because the NHS wants location information it's created it's own app.
In reality it's blooming stupid as the best way to have done this was 2 separate apps, 1 collection location information against timestamps, the other collecting bluetooth information.
When my friend's mother was suffering from dementia, she became convinced that "They are diluting my water!"
Dementia means never having to explain - with what?
As I said there are always funny moments. We had quite a few.
Unfortunately they go thru' the 'with what?' question in their own mind and then get angry because they have competing contradictory evidence.
We apparently had a full blown cinema in our basement (we don't have a basement). We spent ages with my Mum trying to find the stairs.
One night when I had to coax my mother back to the house from a neighbour I sat down for hours explaining to my mother what was happening and got to the point where she understood (it doesn't last). She then asked me whether she was going to get better. My stomach churned.
That is so harsh.
My mother had a form of dementia where she lived in a world of her own creation. She knew who I was to the end, which was a blessing, but I would get berated for not congratulating her on her Nobel prize...
BigRich posted an interesting comment about why Sweden has probably done the right thing, and nearly all of the replies were to do with a grammar dispute.
Sometimes people do not seem willing to engage in sciientific discussion on this site.The graph yesterday showing that the R figure was below 1 before the lockdown and that the reduction coincided with the hand washing advice I thought was really striking. Yet alI I got was abuse for discussing it and no one seemed interested in it. If science does not agree with someones opinion then it seems it is not worthy.
The method of calculation of R in that graph is, almost certainly, not valid.
No error bars on the R values is a warning sign that this is not valid, as well.
Very spiky as well, which looks very strange.
Using a median incubation period of 5 days and time to fatality median/interquartile ranges from https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7095212/ , and the hospital deaths data from public health England, with some five-day smoothing and pulling out interquartile ranges over those five days) I got something that looked like this (bearing in mind that I'm not at all confident about the methodology):
Putting on dates of significant interventions, I got this:
1 - Handwashing advice given 2 - Premier Leaguse suspended and much other sport, elections deferred 3 - PM advises everyone against non-essential travel, avoiding pubs/restaurants/clubs, wfh if possible. Vulnerable people advised to self-isolate. 4 - Pubs, cafes, restaurants ordered to close immediately; nightclubs, theatres, gyms, cinemas, leisure entres told to close as soon as possible; last day of schools for most pupils. Furlough rules announced by Sunak. 5 - Announcement of lockdown with immediate effect
To be fair, the handwashing advice does seem to have been helpful to a degree...
Apparently small differences in R 1.4 and R 0.8 are night and day too. If the virus has a 5 day turnaround in financial terms R1.4 would be 46 trillion % APR whereas 0.8 would reduce a billion quid to less than a hundred quid.
A roulette wheel or FOBT based on one is basically a device with R 0.97 for your money. Expert card counters get banned for pushing their cash R from 0.98 on the blackjack tables to 1.01 or 1.02.
I don't think this plot is correct. The advice was the R was still above 2 the day the lockdown was announced.
11:08am Sage warned London ICU could have breached in 7 days The lockdown decision was taken by the Prime Minister after Sage was presented with modelling evidence suggesting intensive care units across the country would be swamped.
At the March 23 meeting of Sage, the day Boris Johnson announced the lockdown, experts considered a summary of the coronavirus modelling which warned "it is very likely that we will see ICU capacity in London breached by the end of the month, even if additional measures are put in place today".
"The rest of the UK is one-two weeks behind London. In the absence of additional measures being put into place in the next few days, it is likely that we will breach ICU capacity in other regions."
The modelling suggested the rapid increase in intensive care admissions suggested the reproduction number - the R rate - was higher than the 2.4 previously estimated and could have been more than three.
The lockdown was a decision taken on balance of risk and IMO was the correct one. If anything it should have come earlier. However, as to R being above 2 on 23rd March when it was announced, this seems unlikely to me if deaths peaked on or around 8th April.
I think we established yesterday that the peak was about a week later than that when care home deaths are taken into account.
Right thanks. So around 15th April.
This still seems to cast doubt on R being above 2 on 23rd March.
I guess we`ll never know. Enough uncertainty on this to enable the pro-lockdowners to claim victory AND the lockdown skeptics to claim victory. How lovely.
Would handwashing etc and sensible social distancing have been sufficient? Who knows? But surely fair to say that lockdown has brought infections down faster - yes?
Not really. First, we have an extraordinary number of unexplained excess deaths; second, we'd need a comparison with what would have happened anyway; third, with different regions being out of phase with each other, national aggregates and averages are of limited value for this sort of question.
Infected in France between 14 and 22 December. So there was somebody in France infected with it before that date. It is starting to stretch back quite a way now.
So much for the supposed "Patient Zero" in Wuhan at the seafood market feeling ill on 10th December.... But then, with the CIA having its "WTF???" report in November, we already knew that was bollocks.
Do the Chinese even still pretend December? As there are already leaked documents from China showing patients from mid November.
When my friend's mother was suffering from dementia, she became convinced that "They are diluting my water!"
Dementia means never having to explain - with what?
As I said there are always funny moments. We had quite a few.
Unfortunately they go thru' the 'with what?' question in their own mind and then get angry because they have competing contradictory evidence.
We apparently had a full blown cinema in our basement (we don't have a basement). We spent ages with my Mum trying to find the stairs.
One night when I had to coax my mother back to the house from a neighbour I sat down for hours explaining to my mother what was happening and got to the point where she understood (it doesn't last). She then asked me whether she was going to get better. My stomach churned.
It took my far longer than it ought that the kindest, and most effective way to engage was with my father's emotions rather than trying to correct, or make sense of anything to him.
Last year my partner bought a little ceramic badge in Rome that reads "Be happy not perfect" - @cyclefree spotted it in the background of one of my photos on Twitter. If I had understood that more quickly when he was recovering from his accident, I could have saved both of us a lot of heartache.
Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.
Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.
I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.
Wow. Hancock is brave.
Hancock has previous form with Apple and Google. I'm sure that's played its role in the decision to ignore their efforts. I honestly hope this works because I hate this lockdown but I'm pretty sure it won't.
I've been told that our app also won't be internationally compatible which means British people will need to install multiple apps if they go overseas while the others can be made interoperable.
If this app fails like it looks like it will because of the problem of when the phone is asleep, then Hancock will have to resign. He is done.
If the app doesn't work while the phone is asleep then why not get IT bods to patch the app so that it does?
Because the OS are built to not allow this. The suggestion os that GCHQ have been called upon to use their expertise with this..thats code for use up an exploit that they will have in their toolbox for messing with peoples phones they spy on.
Problem is especially Apple are totally against anybody for any reason being able to exploit their OS, so I can see them trying to patch it, to stop it working.
If the above is true, the spooks probably just burned a really useful exploit.
I mean if the code as written doesn't work when its not active and only the API does then why not patch the program so that it uses the API?
May require a substantial rewrite of elements of the backend to make it work with the Apple API but if that's what's required then JFDI its not the end of the world is it?
And surely that's what the Isle of Wight test is for? If the Isle of Wight test says this app as currently written isn't working as intended and it needs a rewrite to integrate the API then the Isle of Wight test has done its job.
We need this app yesterday, reworking it isn't going happen overnight and after reading the way it's been made it will probably need to be junked and rewritten which isn't a small undertaking. As I said above, we're about two weeks away from calling in the private sector heavyweights just like we did for testing. Why not do it now and get it done sooner so we can ease the lockdown sooner.
Yes we need this app yesterday and the NHSX app is ready. Its in a live trial already.
If the live trial is a success then roll it out. If its not then go to Plan B. It wouldn't surprise me if people are already working on Plan B just in case the trial doesn't work.
Is an alternative program ready already like the NHSX app is?
Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.
Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.
I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.
Wow. Hancock is brave.
Hancock has previous form with Apple and Google. I'm sure that's played its role in the decision to ignore their efforts. I honestly hope this works because I hate this lockdown but I'm pretty sure it won't.
I've been told that our app also won't be internationally compatible which means British people will need to install multiple apps if they go overseas while the others can be made interoperable.
If this app fails like it looks like it will because of the problem of when the phone is asleep, then Hancock will have to resign. He is done.
Why should Hancock resign because of a technical problem with a phone app?
Because the tech industry have offered a solution, he's chosen not to use it.
They haven't. They've offered an API, not a program.
I'm not sure the timescale of that offer and the government's plans either but if the government had already done a lot of work on their program before the API announcement then should that work have just been abandoned and start again from scratch?
And when the rollout is delayed because we've chosen not to use the API who takes the blame?
Re the study that commented on Super Spreaders and Hyper Connectedness.
This sounds important. I'm trying to get my head around it.
A greater proportion of hyper connected people than the average rate for the population will have already caught the virus simply because of their increased connectedness. The hyper infectious ones will have been super spreaders. Most of these will now largely be immune and so they have been taken out of the pool. Are we saying/hoping that maybe a majority of hyper connected individuals will have already caught the virus?
However, there are still a large majority of people who have yet to be infected and some of these will prove to be hyper infectious when they get infected. Some of these will also be hyper connected individuals as a result of their jobs and so they will be another group pf super spreaders. Some will, by chance, happen to be hyper connected at the time they become infectious, e.g by attending a large gathering of people at the time they happen to be infected. So they will also be super spreaders.
Does the above make sense?
One obvious conclusion seems to be to avoid hyper connected people unless you know them to be immune and to avoid large gatherings. But I guess we already know that. Also avoid potentially hyper infectious people. But of course these aren't identifiable until after the fact.
All it takes really is a couple of those hyper infections super spreaders from the same country to catch it and pass it on to a care home worker each, and one country’s death rate/approach to combatting the disease is lampooned while another, whose super spreaders didn’t catch it, is lauded
The key point is that the hyper connected get (then recover from and become immune) very early in the pandemic. If that isn't factored into the models they will be very wrong.
A toy model might help. Imagine a population of 100 people who never see anyone except the one hyper connected person. She, the hyper, visits 20 of them at random every week and infects 5 in week 1, 5 in week 2 then recovers and carries on their business infecting no one else. The case graph goes nuts in weeks 1 and 2, then declines all on it's own with no behavioural change.
There are many straight up and declared assumptions in epidemiological modesl (Ferguson etc), but this is a more subtle methodological bear trap. The other super important one highlighted was pre-existing immunity (for whatever reason). Some (a lot) of people simply won't get it. Taken together these both give me hope that this is not going to be the two year grind that the worst early predictions suggested.
blairf
I presume those individuals who have "pre-existing immunity" and who won't get it, also won't test positive to an antibody test of immunity? Or do you mean some people will get absolutely no symptoms when exposed to the virus because of "pre-existing immunity" but will develop antibodies after exposure to the virus?
Also what would your hopeful guesstimate be for the population level of "pre-exising immunity?
Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.
Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.
I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.
Wow. Hancock is brave.
Hancock has previous form with Apple and Google. I'm sure that's played its role in the decision to ignore their efforts. I honestly hope this works because I hate this lockdown but I'm pretty sure it won't.
I've been told that our app also won't be internationally compatible which means British people will need to install multiple apps if they go overseas while the others can be made interoperable.
If this app fails like it looks like it will because of the problem of when the phone is asleep, then Hancock will have to resign. He is done.
If the app doesn't work while the phone is asleep then why not get IT bods to patch the app so that it does?
Because the OS are built to not allow this. The suggestion os that GCHQ have been called upon to use their expertise with this..thats code for use up an exploit that they will have in their toolbox for messing with peoples phones they spy on.
Problem is especially Apple are totally against anybody for any reason being able to exploit their OS, so I can see them trying to patch it, to stop it working.
If the above is true, the spooks probably just burned a really useful exploit.
I mean if the code as written doesn't work when its not active and only the API does then why not patch the program so that it uses the API?
May require a substantial rewrite of elements of the backend to make it work with the Apple API but if that's what's required then JFDI its not the end of the world is it?
And surely that's what the Isle of Wight test is for? If the Isle of Wight test says this app as currently written isn't working as intended and it needs a rewrite to integrate the API then the Isle of Wight test has done its job.
Because if you use the API it has restrictions on it's use that stops you collecting the location information the NHS want.
So if Plan A doesn't work and we need to go to an API Plan B then lose the location information. Shame but you can still work even if it is less useful. I don't see what the big deal is, that's the purpose of having a beta test. Its in the live beta test already, its probably already had alpha tests so we will know very shortly whether it works or not.
I’ve been relistening to a lot of Roger Waters era Pink Floyd (73-83) recently, and watching interviews with him about the band, and really enjoying it. Then I listened to a few other bits he’s done, that I didn’t like so much, and recent political interviews that are a bit OTT, and found myself having an argument in my head with myself saying he was a genius for his 73-83 era Floyd work, and people on here posting YouTube’s of some of the not so good stuff and saying “What THIS Roger Waters?” & “So you’re saying The Pros and Cons of Hitchiking’ is a work of genius” etc
Proof that I’m on here too much
You can never have too much Roger Waters-Pink FLoyd.
Roger Waters was with Pink Floyd from the beginning in 1965, so it is harsh to label the 73-83 period as the Roger Waters era. Of course it is true that his songwriting and mood had an ever increasing influence on the music in that time. There is still some good stuff before then, for which Waters obviously had a lot of influence.
Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.
Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.
I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.
Wow. Hancock is brave.
Hancock has previous form with Apple and Google. I'm sure that's played its role in the decision to ignore their efforts. I honestly hope this works because I hate this lockdown but I'm pretty sure it won't.
I've been told that our app also won't be internationally compatible which means British people will need to install multiple apps if they go overseas while the others can be made interoperable.
If this app fails like it looks like it will because of the problem of when the phone is asleep, then Hancock will have to resign. He is done.
If the app doesn't work while the phone is asleep then why not get IT bods to patch the app so that it does?
Because the OS are built to not allow this. The suggestion os that GCHQ have been called upon to use their expertise with this..thats code for use up an exploit that they will have in their toolbox for messing with peoples phones they spy on.
Problem is especially Apple are totally against anybody for any reason being able to exploit their OS, so I can see them trying to patch it, to stop it working.
If the above is true, the spooks probably just burned a really useful exploit.
I mean if the code as written doesn't work when its not active and only the API does then why not patch the program so that it uses the API?
May require a substantial rewrite of elements of the backend to make it work with the Apple API but if that's what's required then JFDI its not the end of the world is it?
And surely that's what the Isle of Wight test is for? If the Isle of Wight test says this app as currently written isn't working as intended and it needs a rewrite to integrate the API then the Isle of Wight test has done its job.
We need this app yesterday, reworking it isn't going happen overnight and after reading the way it's been made it will probably need to be junked and rewritten which isn't a small undertaking. As I said above, we're about two weeks away from calling in the private sector heavyweights just like we did for testing. Why not do it now and get it done sooner so we can ease the lockdown sooner.
Yes we need this app yesterday and the NHSX app is ready. Its in a live trial already.
If the live trial is a success then roll it out. If its not then go to Plan B. It wouldn't surprise me if people are already working on Plan B just in case the trial doesn't work.
Is an alternative program ready already like the NHSX app is?
That app is ready because we've invested in it for the last few weeks. The original decision was incorrect, other countries have taken the Google/Apple approach and are ready to release as well. We know that will definitely work, ours is in an untested solution and when it doesn't work we'll be two to three weeks late to release.
PHE hasn't covered itself in glory throughout the crisis and Hancock has been too weak and too stupid to force the situation.
I thought the whole point of this NHS app is that GCHQ HAVE donated a zero-day exploit for it to work, I also assume Apple are letting it slide as they approved the app on the App Store.
Having to have the App running on the face is a killer though even if the exploit is never fixed. I use my phone for Golf Clash, Risk and Twitter not to run an NHS app at all times.
The supposed exploit is so it doesn't have to run at the top and can run in the background.
Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.
Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.
I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.
Wow. Hancock is brave.
Hancock has previous form with Apple and Google. I'm sure that's played its role in the decision to ignore their efforts. I honestly hope this works because I hate this lockdown but I'm pretty sure it won't.
I've been told that our app also won't be internationally compatible which means British people will need to install multiple apps if they go overseas while the others can be made interoperable.
If this app fails like it looks like it will because of the problem of when the phone is asleep, then Hancock will have to resign. He is done.
Why should Hancock resign because of a technical problem with a phone app?
Because the tech industry have offered a solution, he's chosen not to use it.
They haven't. They've offered an API, not a program.
I'm not sure the timescale of that offer and the government's plans either but if the government had already done a lot of work on their program before the API announcement then should that work have just been abandoned and start again from scratch?
And when the rollout is delayed because we've chosen not to use the API who takes the blame?
Well if GCHQ were confident it would work and it doesn't then they've screwed up it seems. If it does work, they deserve the credit.
Just because we choose this option which is already available doesn't mean we can't do an API if this doesn't work. Out of curiosity just how developed are API based apps, is anyone live with them yet? If not, it seems our current timescale is ahead of Apple/Googles.
Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.
Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.
I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.
Wow. Hancock is brave.
Hancock has previous form with Apple and Google. I'm sure that's played its role in the decision to ignore their efforts. I honestly hope this works because I hate this lockdown but I'm pretty sure it won't.
I've been told that our app also won't be internationally compatible which means British people will need to install multiple apps if they go overseas while the others can be made interoperable.
If this app fails like it looks like it will because of the problem of when the phone is asleep, then Hancock will have to resign. He is done.
If the app doesn't work while the phone is asleep then why not get IT bods to patch the app so that it does?
Because the OS are built to not allow this. The suggestion os that GCHQ have been called upon to use their expertise with this..thats code for use up an exploit that they will have in their toolbox for messing with peoples phones they spy on.
Problem is especially Apple are totally against anybody for any reason being able to exploit their OS, so I can see them trying to patch it, to stop it working.
If the above is true, the spooks probably just burned a really useful exploit.
I mean if the code as written doesn't work when its not active and only the API does then why not patch the program so that it uses the API?
May require a substantial rewrite of elements of the backend to make it work with the Apple API but if that's what's required then JFDI its not the end of the world is it?
And surely that's what the Isle of Wight test is for? If the Isle of Wight test says this app as currently written isn't working as intended and it needs a rewrite to integrate the API then the Isle of Wight test has done its job.
We need this app yesterday, reworking it isn't going happen overnight and after reading the way it's been made it will probably need to be junked and rewritten which isn't a small undertaking. As I said above, we're about two weeks away from calling in the private sector heavyweights just like we did for testing. Why not do it now and get it done sooner so we can ease the lockdown sooner.
Yes we need this app yesterday and the NHSX app is ready. Its in a live trial already.
If the live trial is a success then roll it out. If its not then go to Plan B. It wouldn't surprise me if people are already working on Plan B just in case the trial doesn't work.
Is an alternative program ready already like the NHSX app is?
That app is ready because we've invested in it for the last few weeks. The original decision was incorrect, other countries have taken the Google/Apple approach and are ready to release as well. We know that will definitely work, ours is in an untested solution and when it doesn't work we'll be two to three weeks late to release.
PHE hasn't covered itself in glory throughout the crisis and Hancock has been too weak and too stupid to force the situation.
I don't think PHE are coding this app and GCHQ are world leaders at what they do. If GCHQ are confident this will work, then they must have a very good reason for thinking so.
Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.
Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.
I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.
Wow. Hancock is brave.
Hancock has previous form with Apple and Google. I'm sure that's played its role in the decision to ignore their efforts. I honestly hope this works because I hate this lockdown but I'm pretty sure it won't.
I've been told that our app also won't be internationally compatible which means British people will need to install multiple apps if they go overseas while the others can be made interoperable.
If this app fails like it looks like it will because of the problem of when the phone is asleep, then Hancock will have to resign. He is done.
Why should Hancock resign because of a technical problem with a phone app?
Because the tech industry have offered a solution, he's chosen not to use it.
They haven't. They've offered an API, not a program.
I'm not sure the timescale of that offer and the government's plans either but if the government had already done a lot of work on their program before the API announcement then should that work have just been abandoned and start again from scratch?
And when the rollout is delayed because we've chosen not to use the API who takes the blame?
Well if GCHQ were confident it would work and it doesn't then they've screwed up it seems. If it does work, they deserve the credit.
Just because we choose this option which is already available doesn't mean we can't do an API if this doesn't work. Out of curiosity just how developed are API based apps, is anyone live with them yet? If not, it seems our current timescale is ahead of Apple/Googles.
The whole point is that we're already running late and we've decided to ignore the industry solution in favour of something we don't know will work. Two more weeks of lockdown is billions in economic damage, more job losses and more non-virus deaths and mental anguish.
Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.
Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.
I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.
Wow. Hancock is brave.
Hancock has previous form with Apple and Google. I'm sure that's played its role in the decision to ignore their efforts. I honestly hope this works because I hate this lockdown but I'm pretty sure it won't.
I've been told that our app also won't be internationally compatible which means British people will need to install multiple apps if they go overseas while the others can be made interoperable.
If this app fails like it looks like it will because of the problem of when the phone is asleep, then Hancock will have to resign. He is done.
If the app doesn't work while the phone is asleep then why not get IT bods to patch the app so that it does?
Because the OS are built to not allow this. The suggestion os that GCHQ have been called upon to use their expertise with this..thats code for use up an exploit that they will have in their toolbox for messing with peoples phones they spy on.
Problem is especially Apple are totally against anybody for any reason being able to exploit their OS, so I can see them trying to patch it, to stop it working.
If the above is true, the spooks probably just burned a really useful exploit.
I mean if the code as written doesn't work when its not active and only the API does then why not patch the program so that it uses the API?
May require a substantial rewrite of elements of the backend to make it work with the Apple API but if that's what's required then JFDI its not the end of the world is it?
And surely that's what the Isle of Wight test is for? If the Isle of Wight test says this app as currently written isn't working as intended and it needs a rewrite to integrate the API then the Isle of Wight test has done its job.
Because if you use the API it has restrictions on it's use that stops you collecting the location information the NHS want.
So because the NHS wants location information it's created it's own app.
In reality it's blooming stupid as the best way to have done this was 2 separate apps, 1 collection location information against timestamps, the other collecting bluetooth information.
You could then match both if required.
I assume the govt is relying on being able to put pressure on Apple and Google to allow the app to work. Whether that works might depend partly on public opinion. I could imagine Apple and Google caving if they were portrayed as preventing the UK from beating coronavirus. And/or threatened with more taxes.
Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.
Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.
I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.
Wow. Hancock is brave.
Hancock has previous form with Apple and Google. I'm sure that's played its role in the decision to ignore their efforts. I honestly hope this works because I hate this lockdown but I'm pretty sure it won't.
I've been told that our app also won't be internationally compatible which means British people will need to install multiple apps if they go overseas while the others can be made interoperable.
If this app fails like it looks like it will because of the problem of when the phone is asleep, then Hancock will have to resign. He is done.
If the app doesn't work while the phone is asleep then why not get IT bods to patch the app so that it does?
Because the OS are built to not allow this. The suggestion os that GCHQ have been called upon to use their expertise with this..thats code for use up an exploit that they will have in their toolbox for messing with peoples phones they spy on.
Problem is especially Apple are totally against anybody for any reason being able to exploit their OS, so I can see them trying to patch it, to stop it working.
If the above is true, the spooks probably just burned a really useful exploit.
I mean if the code as written doesn't work when its not active and only the API does then why not patch the program so that it uses the API?
May require a substantial rewrite of elements of the backend to make it work with the Apple API but if that's what's required then JFDI its not the end of the world is it?
And surely that's what the Isle of Wight test is for? If the Isle of Wight test says this app as currently written isn't working as intended and it needs a rewrite to integrate the API then the Isle of Wight test has done its job.
We need this app yesterday, reworking it isn't going happen overnight and after reading the way it's been made it will probably need to be junked and rewritten which isn't a small undertaking. As I said above, we're about two weeks away from calling in the private sector heavyweights just like we did for testing. Why not do it now and get it done sooner so we can ease the lockdown sooner.
Yes we need this app yesterday and the NHSX app is ready. Its in a live trial already.
If the live trial is a success then roll it out. If its not then go to Plan B. It wouldn't surprise me if people are already working on Plan B just in case the trial doesn't work.
Is an alternative program ready already like the NHSX app is?
That app is ready because we've invested in it for the last few weeks. The original decision was incorrect, other countries have taken the Google/Apple approach and are ready to release as well. We know that will definitely work, ours is in an untested solution and when it doesn't work we'll be two to three weeks late to release.
PHE hasn't covered itself in glory throughout the crisis and Hancock has been too weak and too stupid to force the situation.
I don't think PHE are coding this app and GCHQ are world leaders at what they do. If GCHQ are confident this will work, then they must have a very good reason for thinking so.
It seems like all we know is that they were asked for advice, I don't think anyone knows what they think about the result???
I’ve been relistening to a lot of Roger Waters era Pink Floyd (73-83) recently, and watching interviews with him about the band, and really enjoying it. Then I listened to a few other bits he’s done, that I didn’t like so much, and recent political interviews that are a bit OTT, and found myself having an argument in my head with myself saying he was a genius for his 73-83 era Floyd work, and people on here posting YouTube’s of some of the not so good stuff and saying “What THIS Roger Waters?” & “So you’re saying The Pros and Cons of Hitchiking’ is a work of genius” etc
Proof that I’m on here too much
You can never have too much Roger Waters-Pink FLoyd.
Roger Waters was with Pink Floyd from the beginning in 1965, so it is harsh to label the 73-83 period as the Roger Waters era. Of course it is true that his songwriting and mood had an ever increasing influence on the music in that time. There is still some good stuff before then, for which Waters obviously had a lot of influence.
The Final Cut is the greatest of Roger's solo efforts
I expect they're most comparable to the UK-HMG daily report, though I'm not absolutely clear.
Britain's position looks relatively worse than some of the countries that it is being compared with because it has good and current statistics. However, its position is still pretty bad.
Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.
Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.
I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.
Wow. Hancock is brave.
Hancock has previous form with Apple and Google. I'm sure that's played its role in the decision to ignore their efforts. I honestly hope this works because I hate this lockdown but I'm pretty sure it won't.
I've been told that our app also won't be internationally compatible which means British people will need to install multiple apps if they go overseas while the others can be made interoperable.
If this app fails like it looks like it will because of the problem of when the phone is asleep, then Hancock will have to resign. He is done.
If the app doesn't work while the phone is asleep then why not get IT bods to patch the app so that it does?
Because the OS are built to not allow this. The suggestion os that GCHQ have been called upon to use their expertise with this..thats code for use up an exploit that they will have in their toolbox for messing with peoples phones they spy on.
Problem is especially Apple are totally against anybody for any reason being able to exploit their OS, so I can see them trying to patch it, to stop it working.
If the above is true, the spooks probably just burned a really useful exploit.
If that's the case, there's going to be a point in the near future at which it blows up in the face of the government, distracting people who have other important jobs (sic) to do, in order to fight fires with Apple.
If GCHQ have used a 0-day for this, knowing it was going to end up publicly available to 30 million phones, they're much more stupid than I might have given them credit for previously.
There's precisely no chance this doesn't finish with Apple patching the bug and subjecting the NHS to huge scrutiny over their replacement app, in the knowledge that it's being written by the spooks.
Will be interesting to watch, as it's a novel technology, which if it were to work, would make possible the rapid production of huge numbers of doses relatively cheaply. Also a lot easier to store and transport.
Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.
Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.
I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.
Wow. Hancock is brave.
Hancock has previous form with Apple and Google. I'm sure that's played its role in the decision to ignore their efforts. I honestly hope this works because I hate this lockdown but I'm pretty sure it won't.
I've been told that our app also won't be internationally compatible which means British people will need to install multiple apps if they go overseas while the others can be made interoperable.
If this app fails like it looks like it will because of the problem of when the phone is asleep, then Hancock will have to resign. He is done.
Why should Hancock resign because of a technical problem with a phone app?
Because the tech industry have offered a solution, he's chosen not to use it.
They haven't. They've offered an API, not a program.
I'm not sure the timescale of that offer and the government's plans either but if the government had already done a lot of work on their program before the API announcement then should that work have just been abandoned and start again from scratch?
And when the rollout is delayed because we've chosen not to use the API who takes the blame?
Well if GCHQ were confident it would work and it doesn't then they've screwed up it seems. If it does work, they deserve the credit.
Just because we choose this option which is already available doesn't mean we can't do an API if this doesn't work. Out of curiosity just how developed are API based apps, is anyone live with them yet? If not, it seems our current timescale is ahead of Apple/Googles.
The whole point is that we're already running late and we've decided to ignore the industry solution in favour of something we don't know will work. Two more weeks of lockdown is billions in economic damage, more job losses and more non-virus deaths and mental anguish.
The warning bells should have been ringing when Germany did a massive U-Turn, after initially going with a similar approach to us.
I believe France are still going for the centralized approach.
I’ve been relistening to a lot of Roger Waters era Pink Floyd (73-83) recently, and watching interviews with him about the band, and really enjoying it. Then I listened to a few other bits he’s done, that I didn’t like so much, and recent political interviews that are a bit OTT, and found myself having an argument in my head with myself saying he was a genius for his 73-83 era Floyd work, and people on here posting YouTube’s of some of the not so good stuff and saying “What THIS Roger Waters?” & “So you’re saying The Pros and Cons of Hitchiking’ is a work of genius” etc
Proof that I’m on here too much
You can never have too much Roger Waters-Pink FLoyd.
Roger Waters was with Pink Floyd from the beginning in 1965, so it is harsh to label the 73-83 period as the Roger Waters era. Of course it is true that his songwriting and mood had an ever increasing influence on the music in that time. There is still some good stuff before then, for which Waters obviously had a lot of influence.
I think it’s fair to call it his era; he wrote the lyrics to every song on all the albums in that period. Before then it was a mishmash, apart from the first album which was all Barrett bar ‘Take up thy stethoscope and walk’. After ‘Meddle’ (which I am listening to I’m for the first time in years right now) he took the reins. ‘Dark Side’ and ‘Wish You Were Here’ are probably the albums they peaked on in terms of getting the music/lyrics balance right - pre that the lyrics were mostly rubbish, afterwards the music was too Waters influenced and bleak.
BigRich posted an interesting comment about why Sweden has probably done the right thing, and nearly all of the replies were to do with a grammar dispute.
Sometimes people do not seem willing to engage in sciientific discussion on this site.The graph yesterday showing that the R figure was below 1 before the lockdown and that the reduction coincided with the hand washing advice I thought was really striking. Yet alI I got was abuse for discussing it and no one seemed interested in it. If science does not agree with someones opinion then it seems it is not worthy.
The thing is that the long lockdowners cannot be wrong, whatever the evidence against them.
If they are wrong, then that is tantamount to admitting they have, in effect, been amongst the biggest and most gullible dupes in history. They would be right up there with those who maintained that Stalin did not know about the purges and the gulags, and if he did would have stopped them immediately.
Once you start attacking the proponents you have lost the argument
Do you think it may become clear that the excess deaths are largely down to the psychological effects of lockdown?
No.
What`s your thinking on this then?
I'd take some persuading that the excess deaths are attributable at present to anything much other than Covid-19. Other theories look pretty far-fetched to me on current evidence and seem to be largely induced by the prior prejudices of those promoting them.
While there will be some deaths caused by non-treatment of other conditions that would otherwise be treated, there will also be some deaths that don't happen because of lockdown (road traffic accidents are presumably far lower than usual, for example). I'd treat them as a wash until we get more concrete data.
FPT Last night I read a comment by TGOF666 re people putting their parents into care homes. I also saw some robust responses, but I did want to make my own response.
My mother got dementia not too long ago. She has since died. My father with our support decided she would definitely NOT go into care. We would look after her. I can only assume TGOF666 has not gone through this. Here are just a few examples of what can happen:
At 3 in the morning the washing up needs doing, while you are asleep, which includes the toaster.
Just wandering off any time of the day or night and not knowing where they are.
Start cooking on the hob and leaving it. Running taps and leaving them.
Attacking your husband (aged 90) with a walking stick because he is having an affair with the woman of the non existent other family living in the house.
Screaming at your son in front of his children 'why didn't you tell me my mother was a man' (she visualised my father as her mother). I was one of the few people who could sit down with my mother and explain what was going on, but this stumped me.
This requires 24 hour monitoring - when do you sleep?
Much to my surprise I was very impressed with the social care provided by social services and the Alzheimer society were magnificent. My mother ended up in a care home, which was also great and the staff magnificent - I don't know how they have the patience.
TGOF666 post was disgraceful.
Makes me wonder why you didn't put your kids up for adoption - they can be quite tiring too.
When my friend's mother was suffering from dementia, she became convinced that "They are diluting my water!"
Dementia means never having to explain - with what?
As I said there are always funny moments. We had quite a few.
Unfortunately they go thru' the 'with what?' question in their own mind and then get angry because they have competing contradictory evidence.
We apparently had a full blown cinema in our basement (we don't have a basement). We spent ages with my Mum trying to find the stairs.
One night when I had to coax my mother back to the house from a neighbour I sat down for hours explaining to my mother what was happening and got to the point where she understood (it doesn't last). She then asked me whether she was going to get better. My stomach churned.
It took my far longer than it ought that the kindest, and most effective way to engage was with my father's emotions rather than trying to correct, or make sense of anything to him.
Yes - try to enter their world rather than drag them back into yours.
But much easier to type that out than to realize it in practice, I bet.
I’ve been relistening to a lot of Roger Waters era Pink Floyd (73-83) recently, and watching interviews with him about the band, and really enjoying it. Then I listened to a few other bits he’s done, that I didn’t like so much, and recent political interviews that are a bit OTT, and found myself having an argument in my head with myself saying he was a genius for his 73-83 era Floyd work, and people on here posting YouTube’s of some of the not so good stuff and saying “What THIS Roger Waters?” & “So you’re saying The Pros and Cons of Hitchiking’ is a work of genius” etc
Proof that I’m on here too much
You can never have too much Roger Waters-Pink FLoyd.
Roger Waters was with Pink Floyd from the beginning in 1965, so it is harsh to label the 73-83 period as the Roger Waters era. Of course it is true that his songwriting and mood had an ever increasing influence on the music in that time. There is still some good stuff before then, for which Waters obviously had a lot of influence.
I would say Animals onwards is really 'Waters' Floyd. It has that 'nastiness/edge' to it. (which works really well for both Animals and the Wall, but then from the Final Cut onward, it's just much more there).
Gilmour always seemed to have the more 'hippy/wistful' stuff, along with his distinctive guitar
Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.
Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.
I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.
Wow. Hancock is brave.
Hancock has previous form with Apple and Google. I'm sure that's played its role in the decision to ignore their efforts. I honestly hope this works because I hate this lockdown but I'm pretty sure it won't.
I've been told that our app also won't be internationally compatible which means British people will need to install multiple apps if they go overseas while the others can be made interoperable.
If this app fails like it looks like it will because of the problem of when the phone is asleep, then Hancock will have to resign. He is done.
If the app doesn't work while the phone is asleep then why not get IT bods to patch the app so that it does?
Because the OS are built to not allow this. The suggestion os that GCHQ have been called upon to use their expertise with this..thats code for use up an exploit that they will have in their toolbox for messing with peoples phones they spy on.
Problem is especially Apple are totally against anybody for any reason being able to exploit their OS, so I can see them trying to patch it, to stop it working.
If the above is true, the spooks probably just burned a really useful exploit.
I mean if the code as written doesn't work when its not active and only the API does then why not patch the program so that it uses the API?
May require a substantial rewrite of elements of the backend to make it work with the Apple API but if that's what's required then JFDI its not the end of the world is it?
And surely that's what the Isle of Wight test is for? If the Isle of Wight test says this app as currently written isn't working as intended and it needs a rewrite to integrate the API then the Isle of Wight test has done its job.
We need this app yesterday, reworking it isn't going happen overnight and after reading the way it's been made it will probably need to be junked and rewritten which isn't a small undertaking. As I said above, we're about two weeks away from calling in the private sector heavyweights just like we did for testing. Why not do it now and get it done sooner so we can ease the lockdown sooner.
Yes we need this app yesterday and the NHSX app is ready. Its in a live trial already.
If the live trial is a success then roll it out. If its not then go to Plan B. It wouldn't surprise me if people are already working on Plan B just in case the trial doesn't work.
Is an alternative program ready already like the NHSX app is?
That app is ready because we've invested in it for the last few weeks. The original decision was incorrect, other countries have taken the Google/Apple approach and are ready to release as well. We know that will definitely work, ours is in an untested solution and when it doesn't work we'll be two to three weeks late to release.
PHE hasn't covered itself in glory throughout the crisis and Hancock has been too weak and too stupid to force the situation.
I don't think PHE are coding this app and GCHQ are world leaders at what they do. If GCHQ are confident this will work, then they must have a very good reason for thinking so.
PHE are making the app. GCHQ are providing the 0-day exploit. One that Apple could patch at any time. There's also the small matter of Google not having a similar exploit in Android which means the app definitely won't work be able to access the Bluetooth stack in the background meaning it will only work when the screen is on.
If the app doesn’t work it’s going to be hilarious. Like hilariously incompetent. I’m literally laughing out loud at the thought of it.
I'm amused at all the lefties berating the government not getting into bed with evil global multinational capitalists. Obviously I hope the app works and does the job it is designed to do.
Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.
Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.
I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.
Wow. Hancock is brave.
Hancock has previous form with Apple and Google. I'm sure that's played its role in the decision to ignore their efforts. I honestly hope this works because I hate this lockdown but I'm pretty sure it won't.
I've been told that our app also won't be internationally compatible which means British people will need to install multiple apps if they go overseas while the others can be made interoperable.
If this app fails like it looks like it will because of the problem of when the phone is asleep, then Hancock will have to resign. He is done.
If the app doesn't work while the phone is asleep then why not get IT bods to patch the app so that it does?
Because the OS are built to not allow this. The suggestion os that GCHQ have been called upon to use their expertise with this..thats code for use up an exploit that they will have in their toolbox for messing with peoples phones they spy on.
Problem is especially Apple are totally against anybody for any reason being able to exploit their OS, so I can see them trying to patch it, to stop it working.
If the above is true, the spooks probably just burned a really useful exploit.
If that's the case, there's going to be a point in the near future at which it blows up in the face of the government, distracting people who have other important jobs (sic) to do, in order to fight fires with Apple.
If GCHQ have used a 0-day for this, knowing it was going to end up publicly available to 30 million phones, they're much more stupid than I might have given them credit for previously.
There's precisely no chance this doesn't finish with Apple patching the bug and subjecting the NHS to huge scrutiny over their replacement app, in the knowledge that it's being written by the spooks.
Come on PB Tories, you must have access to a technological competent Tory MP who can check this out before it becomes another embarassment to the UK? Anbody know if Cummings was involved in the decision?
Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.
Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.
I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.
Wow. Hancock is brave.
Hancock has previous form with Apple and Google. I'm sure that's played its role in the decision to ignore their efforts. I honestly hope this works because I hate this lockdown but I'm pretty sure it won't.
I've been told that our app also won't be internationally compatible which means British people will need to install multiple apps if they go overseas while the others can be made interoperable.
If this app fails like it looks like it will because of the problem of when the phone is asleep, then Hancock will have to resign. He is done.
If the app doesn't work while the phone is asleep then why not get IT bods to patch the app so that it does?
Because the OS are built to not allow this. The suggestion os that GCHQ have been called upon to use their expertise with this..thats code for use up an exploit that they will have in their toolbox for messing with peoples phones they spy on.
Problem is especially Apple are totally against anybody for any reason being able to exploit their OS, so I can see them trying to patch it, to stop it working.
If the above is true, the spooks probably just burned a really useful exploit.
I mean if the code as written doesn't work when its not active and only the API does then why not patch the program so that it uses the API?
May require a substantial rewrite of elements of the backend to make it work with the Apple API but if that's what's required then JFDI its not the end of the world is it?
And surely that's what the Isle of Wight test is for? If the Isle of Wight test says this app as currently written isn't working as intended and it needs a rewrite to integrate the API then the Isle of Wight test has done its job.
We need this app yesterday, reworking it isn't going happen overnight and after reading the way it's been made it will probably need to be junked and rewritten which isn't a small undertaking. As I said above, we're about two weeks away from calling in the private sector heavyweights just like we did for testing. Why not do it now and get it done sooner so we can ease the lockdown sooner.
Yes we need this app yesterday and the NHSX app is ready. Its in a live trial already.
If the live trial is a success then roll it out. If its not then go to Plan B. It wouldn't surprise me if people are already working on Plan B just in case the trial doesn't work.
Is an alternative program ready already like the NHSX app is?
That app is ready because we've invested in it for the last few weeks. The original decision was incorrect, other countries have taken the Google/Apple approach and are ready to release as well. We know that will definitely work, ours is in an untested solution and when it doesn't work we'll be two to three weeks late to release.
PHE hasn't covered itself in glory throughout the crisis and Hancock has been too weak and too stupid to force the situation.
I don't think PHE are coding this app and GCHQ are world leaders at what they do. If GCHQ are confident this will work, then they must have a very good reason for thinking so.
It seems like all we know is that they were asked for advice, I don't think anyone knows what they think about the result???
Indeed but I trust their advice was sound.
We have a whole bunch of armchair generals confident this won't work but the experts (who needs them eh?) advised it will and its already through the alpha test stage and into a live beta test.
Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.
Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.
I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.
Wow. Hancock is brave.
Hancock has previous form with Apple and Google. I'm sure that's played its role in the decision to ignore their efforts. I honestly hope this works because I hate this lockdown but I'm pretty sure it won't.
I've been told that our app also won't be internationally compatible which means British people will need to install multiple apps if they go overseas while the others can be made interoperable.
If this app fails like it looks like it will because of the problem of when the phone is asleep, then Hancock will have to resign. He is done.
If the app doesn't work while the phone is asleep then why not get IT bods to patch the app so that it does?
Because the OS are built to not allow this. The suggestion os that GCHQ have been called upon to use their expertise with this..thats code for use up an exploit that they will have in their toolbox for messing with peoples phones they spy on.
Problem is especially Apple are totally against anybody for any reason being able to exploit their OS, so I can see them trying to patch it, to stop it working.
If the above is true, the spooks probably just burned a really useful exploit.
If that's the case, there's going to be a point in the near future at which it blows up in the face of the government, distracting people who have other important jobs (sic) to do, in order to fight fires with Apple.
If GCHQ have used a 0-day for this, knowing it was going to end up publicly available to 30 million phones, they're much more stupid than I might have given them credit for previously.
There's precisely no chance this doesn't finish with Apple patching the bug and subjecting the NHS to huge scrutiny over their replacement app, in the knowledge that it's being written by the spooks.
Come on PB Tories, you must have access to a technological competent Tory MP who can check this out before it becomes another embarassment to the UK? Anbody know if Cummings was involved in the decision?
Why would an MP get involved now? Its already in the live Beta test. Either it works in the Beta Test or it doesn't. We will know very, very shortly. Its too late not to do this Beta Test, its too late to pick a different Plan A.
If the test succeeds roll it out nationwide, if it fails move on to Plan B. Its that simple really.
Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.
Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.
I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.
Wow. Hancock is brave.
Hancock has previous form with Apple and Google. I'm sure that's played its role in the decision to ignore their efforts. I honestly hope this works because I hate this lockdown but I'm pretty sure it won't.
I've been told that our app also won't be internationally compatible which means British people will need to install multiple apps if they go overseas while the others can be made interoperable.
If this app fails like it looks like it will because of the problem of when the phone is asleep, then Hancock will have to resign. He is done.
If the app doesn't work while the phone is asleep then why not get IT bods to patch the app so that it does?
Because the OS are built to not allow this. The suggestion os that GCHQ have been called upon to use their expertise with this..thats code for use up an exploit that they will have in their toolbox for messing with peoples phones they spy on.
Problem is especially Apple are totally against anybody for any reason being able to exploit their OS, so I can see them trying to patch it, to stop it working.
If the above is true, the spooks probably just burned a really useful exploit.
I mean if the code as written doesn't work when its not active and only the API does then why not patch the program so that it uses the API?
May require a substantial rewrite of elements of the backend to make it work with the Apple API but if that's what's required then JFDI its not the end of the world is it?
And surely that's what the Isle of Wight test is for? If the Isle of Wight test says this app as currently written isn't working as intended and it needs a rewrite to integrate the API then the Isle of Wight test has done its job.
We need this app yesterday, reworking it isn't going happen overnight and after reading the way it's been made it will probably need to be junked and rewritten which isn't a small undertaking. As I said above, we're about two weeks away from calling in the private sector heavyweights just like we did for testing. Why not do it now and get it done sooner so we can ease the lockdown sooner.
Yes we need this app yesterday and the NHSX app is ready. Its in a live trial already.
If the live trial is a success then roll it out. If its not then go to Plan B. It wouldn't surprise me if people are already working on Plan B just in case the trial doesn't work.
Is an alternative program ready already like the NHSX app is?
That app is ready because we've invested in it for the last few weeks. The original decision was incorrect, other countries have taken the Google/Apple approach and are ready to release as well. We know that will definitely work, ours is in an untested solution and when it doesn't work we'll be two to three weeks late to release.
PHE hasn't covered itself in glory throughout the crisis and Hancock has been too weak and too stupid to force the situation.
I don't think PHE are coding this app and GCHQ are world leaders at what they do. If GCHQ are confident this will work, then they must have a very good reason for thinking so.
PHE are making the app. GCHQ are providing the 0-day exploit. One that Apple could patch at any time. There's also the small matter of Google not having a similar exploit in Android which means the app definitely won't work be able to access the Bluetooth stack in the background meaning it will only work when the screen is on.
I simply can't believe it would get this far if that is the case.
Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.
Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.
I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.
Wow. Hancock is brave.
Hancock has previous form with Apple and Google. I'm sure that's played its role in the decision to ignore their efforts. I honestly hope this works because I hate this lockdown but I'm pretty sure it won't.
I've been told that our app also won't be internationally compatible which means British people will need to install multiple apps if they go overseas while the others can be made interoperable.
If this app fails like it looks like it will because of the problem of when the phone is asleep, then Hancock will have to resign. He is done.
If the app doesn't work while the phone is asleep then why not get IT bods to patch the app so that it does?
Because the OS are built to not allow this. The suggestion os that GCHQ have been called upon to use their expertise with this..thats code for use up an exploit that they will have in their toolbox for messing with peoples phones they spy on.
Problem is especially Apple are totally against anybody for any reason being able to exploit their OS, so I can see them trying to patch it, to stop it working.
If the above is true, the spooks probably just burned a really useful exploit.
I mean if the code as written doesn't work when its not active and only the API does then why not patch the program so that it uses the API?
May require a substantial rewrite of elements of the backend to make it work with the Apple API but if that's what's required then JFDI its not the end of the world is it?
And surely that's what the Isle of Wight test is for? If the Isle of Wight test says this app as currently written isn't working as intended and it needs a rewrite to integrate the API then the Isle of Wight test has done its job.
We need this app yesterday, reworking it isn't going happen overnight and after reading the way it's been made it will probably need to be junked and rewritten which isn't a small undertaking. As I said above, we're about two weeks away from calling in the private sector heavyweights just like we did for testing. Why not do it now and get it done sooner so we can ease the lockdown sooner.
Yes we need this app yesterday and the NHSX app is ready. Its in a live trial already.
If the live trial is a success then roll it out. If its not then go to Plan B. It wouldn't surprise me if people are already working on Plan B just in case the trial doesn't work.
Is an alternative program ready already like the NHSX app is?
That app is ready because we've invested in it for the last few weeks. The original decision was incorrect, other countries have taken the Google/Apple approach and are ready to release as well. We know that will definitely work, ours is in an untested solution and when it doesn't work we'll be two to three weeks late to release.
PHE hasn't covered itself in glory throughout the crisis and Hancock has been too weak and too stupid to force the situation.
I don't think PHE are coding this app and GCHQ are world leaders at what they do. If GCHQ are confident this will work, then they must have a very good reason for thinking so.
PHE are making the app. GCHQ are providing the 0-day exploit. One that Apple could patch at any time. There's also the small matter of Google not having a similar exploit in Android which means the app definitely won't work be able to access the Bluetooth stack in the background meaning it will only work when the screen is on.
Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.
Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.
I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.
Wow. Hancock is brave.
Hancock has previous form with Apple and Google. I'm sure that's played its role in the decision to ignore their efforts. I honestly hope this works because I hate this lockdown but I'm pretty sure it won't.
I've been told that our app also won't be internationally compatible which means British people will need to install multiple apps if they go overseas while the others can be made interoperable.
If this app fails like it looks like it will because of the problem of when the phone is asleep, then Hancock will have to resign. He is done.
If the app doesn't work while the phone is asleep then why not get IT bods to patch the app so that it does?
Because the OS are built to not allow this. The suggestion os that GCHQ have been called upon to use their expertise with this..thats code for use up an exploit that they will have in their toolbox for messing with peoples phones they spy on.
Problem is especially Apple are totally against anybody for any reason being able to exploit their OS, so I can see them trying to patch it, to stop it working.
If the above is true, the spooks probably just burned a really useful exploit.
I mean if the code as written doesn't work when its not active and only the API does then why not patch the program so that it uses the API?
May require a substantial rewrite of elements of the backend to make it work with the Apple API but if that's what's required then JFDI its not the end of the world is it?
And surely that's what the Isle of Wight test is for? If the Isle of Wight test says this app as currently written isn't working as intended and it needs a rewrite to integrate the API then the Isle of Wight test has done its job.
We need this app yesterday, reworking it isn't going happen overnight and after reading the way it's been made it will probably need to be junked and rewritten which isn't a small undertaking. As I said above, we're about two weeks away from calling in the private sector heavyweights just like we did for testing. Why not do it now and get it done sooner so we can ease the lockdown sooner.
Yes we need this app yesterday and the NHSX app is ready. Its in a live trial already.
If the live trial is a success then roll it out. If its not then go to Plan B. It wouldn't surprise me if people are already working on Plan B just in case the trial doesn't work.
Is an alternative program ready already like the NHSX app is?
That app is ready because we've invested in it for the last few weeks. The original decision was incorrect, other countries have taken the Google/Apple approach and are ready to release as well. We know that will definitely work, ours is in an untested solution and when it doesn't work we'll be two to three weeks late to release.
PHE hasn't covered itself in glory throughout the crisis and Hancock has been too weak and too stupid to force the situation.
I don't think PHE are coding this app and GCHQ are world leaders at what they do. If GCHQ are confident this will work, then they must have a very good reason for thinking so.
PHE are making the app. GCHQ are providing the 0-day exploit. One that Apple could patch at any time. There's also the small matter of Google not having a similar exploit in Android which means the app definitely won't work be able to access the Bluetooth stack in the background meaning it will only work when the screen is on.
I simply can't believe it would get this far if that is the case.
Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.
Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.
I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.
Wow. Hancock is brave.
Hancock has previous form with Apple and Google. I'm sure that's played its role in the decision to ignore their efforts. I honestly hope this works because I hate this lockdown but I'm pretty sure it won't.
I've been told that our app also won't be internationally compatible which means British people will need to install multiple apps if they go overseas while the others can be made interoperable.
If this app fails like it looks like it will because of the problem of when the phone is asleep, then Hancock will have to resign. He is done.
If the app doesn't work while the phone is asleep then why not get IT bods to patch the app so that it does?
Because the OS are built to not allow this. The suggestion os that GCHQ have been called upon to use their expertise with this..thats code for use up an exploit that they will have in their toolbox for messing with peoples phones they spy on.
Problem is especially Apple are totally against anybody for any reason being able to exploit their OS, so I can see them trying to patch it, to stop it working.
If the above is true, the spooks probably just burned a really useful exploit.
I mean if the code as written doesn't work when its not active and only the API does then why not patch the program so that it uses the API?
May require a substantial rewrite of elements of the backend to make it work with the Apple API but if that's what's required then JFDI its not the end of the world is it?
And surely that's what the Isle of Wight test is for? If the Isle of Wight test says this app as currently written isn't working as intended and it needs a rewrite to integrate the API then the Isle of Wight test has done its job.
We need this app yesterday, reworking it isn't going happen overnight and after reading the way it's been made it will probably need to be junked and rewritten which isn't a small undertaking. As I said above, we're about two weeks away from calling in the private sector heavyweights just like we did for testing. Why not do it now and get it done sooner so we can ease the lockdown sooner.
Yes we need this app yesterday and the NHSX app is ready. Its in a live trial already.
If the live trial is a success then roll it out. If its not then go to Plan B. It wouldn't surprise me if people are already working on Plan B just in case the trial doesn't work.
Is an alternative program ready already like the NHSX app is?
That app is ready because we've invested in it for the last few weeks. The original decision was incorrect, other countries have taken the Google/Apple approach and are ready to release as well. We know that will definitely work, ours is in an untested solution and when it doesn't work we'll be two to three weeks late to release.
PHE hasn't covered itself in glory throughout the crisis and Hancock has been too weak and too stupid to force the situation.
I don't think PHE are coding this app and GCHQ are world leaders at what they do. If GCHQ are confident this will work, then they must have a very good reason for thinking so.
PHE are making the app. GCHQ are providing the 0-day exploit. One that Apple could patch at any time. There's also the small matter of Google not having a similar exploit in Android which means the app definitely won't work be able to access the Bluetooth stack in the background meaning it will only work when the screen is on.
So how do my Bluetooth headphones work when the screen is off? Or the car radio?
Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.
Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.
I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.
Wow. Hancock is brave.
Hancock has previous form with Apple and Google. I'm sure that's played its role in the decision to ignore their efforts. I honestly hope this works because I hate this lockdown but I'm pretty sure it won't.
I've been told that our app also won't be internationally compatible which means British people will need to install multiple apps if they go overseas while the others can be made interoperable.
If this app fails like it looks like it will because of the problem of when the phone is asleep, then Hancock will have to resign. He is done.
If the app doesn't work while the phone is asleep then why not get IT bods to patch the app so that it does?
Because the OS are built to not allow this. The suggestion os that GCHQ have been called upon to use their expertise with this..thats code for use up an exploit that they will have in their toolbox for messing with peoples phones they spy on.
Problem is especially Apple are totally against anybody for any reason being able to exploit their OS, so I can see them trying to patch it, to stop it working.
If the above is true, the spooks probably just burned a really useful exploit.
I mean if the code as written doesn't work when its not active and only the API does then why not patch the program so that it uses the API?
May require a substantial rewrite of elements of the backend to make it work with the Apple API but if that's what's required then JFDI its not the end of the world is it?
And surely that's what the Isle of Wight test is for? If the Isle of Wight test says this app as currently written isn't working as intended and it needs a rewrite to integrate the API then the Isle of Wight test has done its job.
We need this app yesterday, reworking it isn't going happen overnight and after reading the way it's been made it will probably need to be junked and rewritten which isn't a small undertaking. As I said above, we're about two weeks away from calling in the private sector heavyweights just like we did for testing. Why not do it now and get it done sooner so we can ease the lockdown sooner.
Yes we need this app yesterday and the NHSX app is ready. Its in a live trial already.
If the live trial is a success then roll it out. If its not then go to Plan B. It wouldn't surprise me if people are already working on Plan B just in case the trial doesn't work.
Is an alternative program ready already like the NHSX app is?
That app is ready because we've invested in it for the last few weeks. The original decision was incorrect, other countries have taken the Google/Apple approach and are ready to release as well. We know that will definitely work, ours is in an untested solution and when it doesn't work we'll be two to three weeks late to release.
PHE hasn't covered itself in glory throughout the crisis and Hancock has been too weak and too stupid to force the situation.
I don't think PHE are coding this app and GCHQ are world leaders at what they do. If GCHQ are confident this will work, then they must have a very good reason for thinking so.
It seems like all we know is that they were asked for advice, I don't think anyone knows what they think about the result???
Indeed but I trust their advice was sound.
We have a whole bunch of armchair generals confident this won't work but the experts (who needs them eh?) advised it will and its already through the alpha test stage and into a live beta test.
We will know soon enough.
You're making assumptions about the process that we don't know anything about either way.
Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.
Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.
I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.
Wow. Hancock is brave.
Hancock has previous form with Apple and Google. I'm sure that's played its role in the decision to ignore their efforts. I honestly hope this works because I hate this lockdown but I'm pretty sure it won't.
I've been told that our app also won't be internationally compatible which means British people will need to install multiple apps if they go overseas while the others can be made interoperable.
If this app fails like it looks like it will because of the problem of when the phone is asleep, then Hancock will have to resign. He is done.
If the app doesn't work while the phone is asleep then why not get IT bods to patch the app so that it does?
Because the OS are built to not allow this. The suggestion os that GCHQ have been called upon to use their expertise with this..thats code for use up an exploit that they will have in their toolbox for messing with peoples phones they spy on.
Problem is especially Apple are totally against anybody for any reason being able to exploit their OS, so I can see them trying to patch it, to stop it working.
If the above is true, the spooks probably just burned a really useful exploit.
I mean if the code as written doesn't work when its not active and only the API does then why not patch the program so that it uses the API?
May require a substantial rewrite of elements of the backend to make it work with the Apple API but if that's what's required then JFDI its not the end of the world is it?
And surely that's what the Isle of Wight test is for? If the Isle of Wight test says this app as currently written isn't working as intended and it needs a rewrite to integrate the API then the Isle of Wight test has done its job.
We need this app yesterday, reworking it isn't going happen overnight and after reading the way it's been made it will probably need to be junked and rewritten which isn't a small undertaking. As I said above, we're about two weeks away from calling in the private sector heavyweights just like we did for testing. Why not do it now and get it done sooner so we can ease the lockdown sooner.
Yes we need this app yesterday and the NHSX app is ready. Its in a live trial already.
If the live trial is a success then roll it out. If its not then go to Plan B. It wouldn't surprise me if people are already working on Plan B just in case the trial doesn't work.
Is an alternative program ready already like the NHSX app is?
That app is ready because we've invested in it for the last few weeks. The original decision was incorrect, other countries have taken the Google/Apple approach and are ready to release as well. We know that will definitely work, ours is in an untested solution and when it doesn't work we'll be two to three weeks late to release.
PHE hasn't covered itself in glory throughout the crisis and Hancock has been too weak and too stupid to force the situation.
I don't think PHE are coding this app and GCHQ are world leaders at what they do. If GCHQ are confident this will work, then they must have a very good reason for thinking so.
PHE are making the app. GCHQ are providing the 0-day exploit. One that Apple could patch at any time. There's also the small matter of Google not having a similar exploit in Android which means the app definitely won't work be able to access the Bluetooth stack in the background meaning it will only work when the screen is on.
So how do my Bluetooth headphones work when the screen is off? Or the car radio?
Different type of bluetooth I think, the one the NHS app uses is the low power one.
Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.
Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.
I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.
Wow. Hancock is brave.
Hancock has previous form with Apple and Google. I'm sure that's played its role in the decision to ignore their efforts. I honestly hope this works because I hate this lockdown but I'm pretty sure it won't.
I've been told that our app also won't be internationally compatible which means British people will need to install multiple apps if they go overseas while the others can be made interoperable.
If this app fails like it looks like it will because of the problem of when the phone is asleep, then Hancock will have to resign. He is done.
If the app doesn't work while the phone is asleep then why not get IT bods to patch the app so that it does?
Because the OS are built to not allow this. The suggestion os that GCHQ have been called upon to use their expertise with this..thats code for use up an exploit that they will have in their toolbox for messing with peoples phones they spy on.
Problem is especially Apple are totally against anybody for any reason being able to exploit their OS, so I can see them trying to patch it, to stop it working.
If the above is true, the spooks probably just burned a really useful exploit.
I mean if the code as written doesn't work when its not active and only the API does then why not patch the program so that it uses the API?
May require a substantial rewrite of elements of the backend to make it work with the Apple API but if that's what's required then JFDI its not the end of the world is it?
And surely that's what the Isle of Wight test is for? If the Isle of Wight test says this app as currently written isn't working as intended and it needs a rewrite to integrate the API then the Isle of Wight test has done its job.
We need this app yesterday, reworking it isn't going happen overnight and after reading the way it's been made it will probably need to be junked and rewritten which isn't a small undertaking. As I said above, we're about two weeks away from calling in the private sector heavyweights just like we did for testing. Why not do it now and get it done sooner so we can ease the lockdown sooner.
Yes we need this app yesterday and the NHSX app is ready. Its in a live trial already.
If the live trial is a success then roll it out. If its not then go to Plan B. It wouldn't surprise me if people are already working on Plan B just in case the trial doesn't work.
Is an alternative program ready already like the NHSX app is?
That app is ready because we've invested in it for the last few weeks. The original decision was incorrect, other countries have taken the Google/Apple approach and are ready to release as well. We know that will definitely work, ours is in an untested solution and when it doesn't work we'll be two to three weeks late to release.
PHE hasn't covered itself in glory throughout the crisis and Hancock has been too weak and too stupid to force the situation.
I don't think PHE are coding this app and GCHQ are world leaders at what they do. If GCHQ are confident this will work, then they must have a very good reason for thinking so.
PHE are making the app. GCHQ are providing the 0-day exploit. One that Apple could patch at any time. There's also the small matter of Google not having a similar exploit in Android which means the app definitely won't work be able to access the Bluetooth stack in the background meaning it will only work when the screen is on.
I would be shocked if the spooks don't have exploits for both IoS and Android. Would be a bit crap if they could only spy on Apple using wannabe jihadis....
Basically unless the program is running in the foreground all the time (the phone switched on and enabled, display on, NHS app on display, rather than twitter, whatsapp, facebook) the phone won't be broadcasting it's details to other people.
Assuming the article is technically accurate then it is a devastating take down of the NHS plans.
I did predict on here last week that this would be a disaster, but I had no idea it would be as big a disaster as it now appears.
Wow. Hancock is brave.
Hancock has previous form with Apple and Google. I'm sure that's played its role in the decision to ignore their efforts. I honestly hope this works because I hate this lockdown but I'm pretty sure it won't.
I've been told that our app also won't be internationally compatible which means British people will need to install multiple apps if they go overseas while the others can be made interoperable.
If this app fails like it looks like it will because of the problem of when the phone is asleep, then Hancock will have to resign. He is done.
If the app doesn't work while the phone is asleep then why not get IT bods to patch the app so that it does?
Because the OS are built to not allow this. The suggestion os that GCHQ have been called upon to use their expertise with this..thats code for use up an exploit that they will have in their toolbox for messing with peoples phones they spy on.
Problem is especially Apple are totally against anybody for any reason being able to exploit their OS, so I can see them trying to patch it, to stop it working.
If the above is true, the spooks probably just burned a really useful exploit.
I mean if the code as written doesn't work when its not active and only the API does then why not patch the program so that it uses the API?
May require a substantial rewrite of elements of the backend to make it work with the Apple API but if that's what's required then JFDI its not the end of the world is it?
And surely that's what the Isle of Wight test is for? If the Isle of Wight test says this app as currently written isn't working as intended and it needs a rewrite to integrate the API then the Isle of Wight test has done its job.
We need this app yesterday, reworking it isn't going happen overnight and after reading the way it's been made it will probably need to be junked and rewritten which isn't a small undertaking. As I said above, we're about two weeks away from calling in the private sector heavyweights just like we did for testing. Why not do it now and get it done sooner so we can ease the lockdown sooner.
Yes we need this app yesterday and the NHSX app is ready. Its in a live trial already.
If the live trial is a success then roll it out. If its not then go to Plan B. It wouldn't surprise me if people are already working on Plan B just in case the trial doesn't work.
Is an alternative program ready already like the NHSX app is?
That app is ready because we've invested in it for the last few weeks. The original decision was incorrect, other countries have taken the Google/Apple approach and are ready to release as well. We know that will definitely work, ours is in an untested solution and when it doesn't work we'll be two to three weeks late to release.
PHE hasn't covered itself in glory throughout the crisis and Hancock has been too weak and too stupid to force the situation.
I don't think PHE are coding this app and GCHQ are world leaders at what they do. If GCHQ are confident this will work, then they must have a very good reason for thinking so.
It seems like all we know is that they were asked for advice, I don't think anyone knows what they think about the result???
Indeed but I trust their advice was sound.
We have a whole bunch of armchair generals confident this won't work but the experts (who needs them eh?) advised it will and its already through the alpha test stage and into a live beta test.
We will know soon enough.
Actually the experts in tech industry have said the government approach won't work, that's why they have provided a way to make it work. We've chosen to ignore that method in favour of one we've been told won't work by the tech industry.
Again and again our "experts" have been wrong. This is just another example.
If the app doesn’t work it’s going to be hilarious. Like hilariously incompetent. I’m literally laughing out loud at the thought of it.
Showing your vile true colours their like BJO.
What are you on about? This should have been the first thing to consider in the design process, especially when they were in discussions with Apple and Google.
If they ignored it and went ahead anyway, and it doesn’t work, it really is hilarious incompetence.
Comments
https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1257628612737544192?s=21
My mother had a form of dementia where she lived in a world of her own creation. She knew who I was to the end, which was a blessing, but I would get berated for not congratulating her on her Nobel prize...
This app business feels the same. We are going with those that make apps for the NHS above the two biggest tech companies, who not only have the best software engineers in the world, they actually write the OS.
This still seems to cast doubt on R being above 2 on 23rd March.
Interesting suggestion of yours though
https://twitter.com/phocks/status/1256354615051730944
Either they've somehow worked around this with Apple and Google (unlikely), they're using an operating system bug to work around it (possible, but really stupid and liable to get shut down), or they've not done even the basic quality assurance before committing to their Isle of Wight pilot scheme.
I don't see how this isn't going to be a complete failure. On the available evidence, I wouldn't want to be in charge of NHSX right now.
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1257613799772901408?s=20
Do we know if NHSX offered to create the app or did Hancock insist they do it.
Problem is especially Apple are totally against anybody for any reason being able to exploit their OS, so I can see them trying to patch it, to stop it working.
If the above is true, the spooks probably just burned a really useful exploit.
Nevertheless though Google and Apple aren't perfect they're the only companies with the size, scope and crucially almost the entire phone OS market (between them) to immediately implement a solution we needed yesterday.
Would handwashing etc and sensible social distancing have been sufficient? Who knows? But surely fair to say that lockdown has brought infections down faster - yes?
Or would you have locked them down too? That would be an absolute night mare with the virus ripping through the low risk population and no medical staff available to treat them.
Electronic homeopathy if you like.
However for this, it needs to work as close to 100% of the time.
https://twitter.com/sachgau/status/1257362515127947266?s=20
May require a substantial rewrite of elements of the backend to make it work with the Apple API but if that's what's required then JFDI its not the end of the world is it?
And surely that's what the Isle of Wight test is for? If the Isle of Wight test says this app as currently written isn't working as intended and it needs a rewrite to integrate the API then the Isle of Wight test has done its job.
The Register piece suggests they're using a trick where the app would normally go to sleep, but it hopefully gets woken up by interaction with *someone else* who is also using the same app.
(Smarkets and Betway both have markets on whether the next Cabinet minister will be an Oxbridge graduate.)
So much for the supposed "Patient Zero" in Wuhan at the seafood market feeling ill on 10th December.... But then, with the CIA having its "WTF???" report in November, we already knew that was bollocks.
If it's anything like PPE or testing, NHS and PHE management assured the minister that they knew exactly what they were doing, he had nothing to worry about and all would be achieved quickly.
Something that only changed when the Secretary of State stood up outside No.10 and made a firm but ambitious commitment on testing numbers against the advice of said managers, and sent in half of the Cabinet Office to make sure it happened.
The lockdown, PPE and testing discussions all had a number of unforeseen variables that we had to learn and adapt to in the middle of a crisis. The app is a known problem with a known solution that's being ignored in favour of not-invented-here syndrome, it's like the US CDC insisting on making their own tests even after they had to recall millions of faulty ones in the first batch.
The problem will be world of difference between an exploit to track a few 1,0000 individuals most of the time and the whole of the population 100% of the time.
I'm not sure the timescale of that offer and the government's plans either but if the government had already done a lot of work on their program before the API announcement then should that work have just been abandoned and start again from scratch?
So because the NHS wants location information it's created it's own app.
In reality it's blooming stupid as the best way to have done this was 2 separate apps, 1 collection location information against timestamps, the other collecting bluetooth information.
You could then match both if required.
If the live trial is a success then roll it out. If its not then go to Plan B. It wouldn't surprise me if people are already working on Plan B just in case the trial doesn't work.
Is an alternative program ready already like the NHSX app is?
I presume those individuals who have "pre-existing immunity" and who won't get it, also won't test positive to an antibody test of immunity? Or do you mean some people will get absolutely no symptoms when exposed to the virus because of "pre-existing immunity" but will develop antibodies after exposure to the virus?
Also what would your hopeful guesstimate be for the population level of "pre-exising immunity?
Roger Waters was with Pink Floyd from the beginning in 1965, so it is harsh to label the 73-83 period as the Roger Waters era. Of course it is true that his songwriting and mood had an ever increasing influence on the music in that time. There is still some good stuff before then, for which Waters obviously had a lot of influence.
PHE hasn't covered itself in glory throughout the crisis and Hancock has been too weak and too stupid to force the situation.
Just because we choose this option which is already available doesn't mean we can't do an API if this doesn't work. Out of curiosity just how developed are API based apps, is anyone live with them yet? If not, it seems our current timescale is ahead of Apple/Googles.
Britain's position looks relatively worse than some of the countries that it is being compared with because it has good and current statistics. However, its position is still pretty bad.
If GCHQ have used a 0-day for this, knowing it was going to end up publicly available to 30 million phones, they're much more stupid than I might have given them credit for previously.
There's precisely no chance this doesn't finish with Apple patching the bug and subjecting the NHS to huge scrutiny over their replacement app, in the knowledge that it's being written by the spooks.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/health/pfizer-vaccine-coronavirus.html
Will be interesting to watch, as it's a novel technology, which if it were to work, would make possible the rapid production of huge numbers of doses relatively cheaply.
Also a lot easier to store and transport.
I believe France are still going for the centralized approach.
While there will be some deaths caused by non-treatment of other conditions that would otherwise be treated, there will also be some deaths that don't happen because of lockdown (road traffic accidents are presumably far lower than usual, for example). I'd treat them as a wash until we get more concrete data.
But much easier to type that out than to realize it in practice, I bet.
Gilmour always seemed to have the more 'hippy/wistful' stuff, along with his distinctive guitar
Anbody know if Cummings was involved in the decision?
We have a whole bunch of armchair generals confident this won't work but the experts (who needs them eh?) advised it will and its already through the alpha test stage and into a live beta test.
We will know soon enough.
If the test succeeds roll it out nationwide, if it fails move on to Plan B. Its that simple really.
Again and again our "experts" have been wrong. This is just another example.
If they ignored it and went ahead anyway, and it doesn’t work, it really is hilarious incompetence.
Clearly I want it to work.