politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » COVID-19: It’s Not Your Fault
Comments
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He's got a chance. Could go either way, those odds seem about right to me.Stocky said:What odds should Trump be to win the popular vote? You can lay him at 4.8 with Bf (thin market admittedly). He`s got next to no chance has he?
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I passed a closed shop the other day which had a sign in the window “No toilet rolls are stored on these premises”FrancisUrquhart said:I predict masks are going to be the new bog rolls in a month or two. And unlike bog roll, which was a distribution issue, there will be a long term shortage problem.
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If we waited for when a comment was required before making it I for one would have far fewer posts to my name.bigjohnowls said:
Good eveningFrancisUrquhart said:85k tests...Big John incoming in 5...4...3....2...1..
No comment is required is it.4 -
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Where else would one store a book?Theuniondivvie said:
Who said anything about reading them? Displaying them on your bookshelf is a different thing.FrancisUrquhart said:Here's the thing, you see. Michael Gove has probably done more for Holocaust education and the Jewish community in Britain than any senior politician other than Gordon Brown. It's obvious to anyone why he would have read the work of a Holocaust denier.
Owen Jones, on the other hand, was an actual cheerleader for Jeremy Corbyn - a man described by one of his own MPs as a "racist antisemite". If Jones had his way, that same Jeremy Corbyn would be in Number Ten right now.
Twitter can be annoying, infuriating and sometimes plain pointless. But sometimes it can reveal truths. And in one stupid tweet last night, Owen Jones confirmed a truth about himself and his fellow hard left travellers: that their true ideology is hypocrisy.
https://www.thejc.com/comment/comment/one-stupid-tweet-by-owen-jones-confirms-all-you-need-to-know-about-the-hard-left-1.499433
I think I have a video of Triumph of The Will kicking about in a trunk somewhere. The humiliation of having a shelf full of videotapes aside, I wouldn't be sticking it in a bookcase anytime. One of my favourite books is Memoirs of an Anti-Semite; in the unlikely event of me appearing on Zoom in front of my books, I'd think hard about displaying that due to the possibility of misinterpretation by the dumbasses that infest the world.2 -
Fecking voodoo poll.0
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there is no money. none. we turned the engine off.Philip_Thompson said:
Why?blairf said:
it is what it is, what was done is done. getting them off furlough in the next two months is critical.Philip_Thompson said:
Many, many more than if the furlough wasn't there.contrarian said:The numbers on workers furloughed from HRMC are staggering. 6.3 million at a cost of GBP8bn.
How many of those are going to walk back into work when that nice Mr Sunak takes his subsidies away?
There's talk of 3 months potentially until social distancing ends in some businesses. Why would you end furlough in 2 months then end restrictions in 3?
Furlough should end once we are back to normal.
without consumption directly employing shop workers, bar staff, hairdressers, dentists... there is less for bankers, insurers, accountants, property agents, IT professionals, advertising execs, cleaners, recruitment consultants... and so there is less for ... doctors, lawyers, teachers, nurses, soldiers, police people, social workers, bin men. And the reduced demand all round hits factory workers, builders, carpenters, delivery drivers.
and we end up in the utter shit show we are in. we have to get to work and consuming.2 -
99 % sure you'll have people chasing weekend effect shadows.Philip_Thompson said:
85k on a Sunday is mighty impressive.FrancisUrquhart said:85k tests...Big John incoming in 5...4...3....2...1..
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Surely, both sides of Congress would happily amend the Constitution if it prevented Trump and Biden being the only options in November?Alistair said:Own up, which one of you did it
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1257329572124798977
Shadsy is openly mocking people takin this bet.0 -
Fantastic news.
Taika Waititi Confirmed To Direct New Star Wars Movie
It’s May the 4th, and Disney wants to make all your dreams come true: Taika Waititi is officially making a new Star Wars movie. As confirmed by Disney and LucasFilm, the Kiwi filmmaker, fresh from helming the final episode of The Mandalorian Season 1, will be cooking up something else in the galaxy far, far away for the big screen – adding to his long, long list of upcoming projects.
https://www.empireonline.com/movies/news/taika-waititi-confirmed-to-direct-new-star-wars-movie/1 -
And you have never knowingly been pleased!malcolmg said:
you are easy pleasedPhilip_Thompson said:
85k on a Sunday is mighty impressive.FrancisUrquhart said:85k tests...Big John incoming in 5...4...3....2...1..
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At the risk of being Off Topic, any more on that truly independent Shadow SAGE committee?0
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Baby Yoda - The Movie ?TheScreamingEagles said:Fantastic news.
Taika Waititi Confirmed To Direct New Star Wars Movie
It’s May the 4th, and Disney wants to make all your dreams come true: Taika Waititi is officially making a new Star Wars movie. As confirmed by Disney and LucasFilm, the Kiwi filmmaker, fresh from helming the final episode of The Mandalorian Season 1, will be cooking up something else in the galaxy far, far away for the big screen – adding to his long, long list of upcoming projects.
https://www.empireonline.com/movies/news/taika-waititi-confirmed-to-direct-new-star-wars-movie/0 -
It descended into ranting about Tories austerity killing babies.BannedinnParis said:At the risk of being Off Topic, any more on that truly independent Shadow SAGE committee?
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Nothing to stop Obama serving as vice President, and indeed as president if the incumbent were to resign or have actuarial demiseMarqueeMark said:
Surely, both sides of Congress would happily amend the Constitution if it prevented Trump and Biden being the only options in November?Alistair said:Own up, which one of you did it
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1257329572124798977
Shadsy is openly mocking people takin this bet.0 -
However, the Presidential Succession Act of 1947 states that the order of succession to the Presidency in the event of a vacancy of both the President and Vice-President only applies to those constitutionally eligible to be elected President. So in the current administration, Elaine Chao, the Secretary of Transportation, could not succeed as she's a naturalized, not natural-born, US citizen. Even if Obama became Speaker of the House, President Pro-Tem of the Senate or one of the Cabinet officers designated by that statute as being in the line of succession, he could not succeed as he's ineligible to be elected as President again.Philip_Thompson said:
You're right.Alistair said:
But the 22nd only prohibits being elected president.Philip_Thompson said:
Becoming President doesn't require election, it does require eligibility.Alistair said:
Surely that cannot count as being elected president?Malmesbury said:
Nope. Even if he got into the order of succession by reason of being elected to Congress, he would be eliminated from the said order of succession by his being elected president twice.Alistair said:
So Obama can still become president again then.Philip_Thompson said:
No. Only VP needs to be eligible to become President (I think).Alistair said:Is a former two terms president ineligible to be elected to Congress?
I think the only way Obama could become POTUS again would be for the Vice-Presidency to fall vacant, POTUS to appoint Obama to be VP and a majority of both houses ratifying this, and the President to then die or resign.0 -
Spurs' unbeaten run is one of the few positives currently.....0
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The only data out there I have seen was that to completely sterilise does appear to require very high temperatures.KentRising said:
I thought heat having a positive impact was debunked? That the virus could live on through temperatures well past those of a good old-fashioned English spring/summer.BigRich said:
Well there are 2 other factors that will have contribution to R falling gradually over the long term.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Assuming that the graph is accurate in portraying those impacts, lockdown could still have saved countless lives.NerysHughes said:
This graph seems to show that lockdown has not made much differenceMalmesbury said:
If the infection period is deemed to last about a week, then if R had stayed at 0.9 the number of new cases at the end of 8 weeks would still be about 43% of the level at the start. By contrast if R were consistently 0.7 it means that new cases would be reduced to about 6% of the original level. R was 0.9 when lockdown started and has declined to about 0.7 since then, although the decline has been gradual not immediate.
1) Some people have now had the desise and therefor wont get it again, this is the start of the heard effect,
2) The weather has been getting warmer, we don't know how big an impact this will have had, as I understand it most of this family of viruses are to some extent weather transmition affected, so this viruses may also be.
Warm weather and sunlight need only interfere with the virus and hinder its transmission to have a positive effect (for us).0 -
I hope so.FrancisUrquhart said:
Baby Yoda - The Movie ?TheScreamingEagles said:Fantastic news.
Taika Waititi Confirmed To Direct New Star Wars Movie
It’s May the 4th, and Disney wants to make all your dreams come true: Taika Waititi is officially making a new Star Wars movie. As confirmed by Disney and LucasFilm, the Kiwi filmmaker, fresh from helming the final episode of The Mandalorian Season 1, will be cooking up something else in the galaxy far, far away for the big screen – adding to his long, long list of upcoming projects.
https://www.empireonline.com/movies/news/taika-waititi-confirmed-to-direct-new-star-wars-movie/0 -
Disney Star Wars is dire crap, apart from Captain Corelli's Mandalorian, allegedly.TheScreamingEagles said:Fantastic news.
Taika Waititi Confirmed To Direct New Star Wars Movie
It’s May the 4th, and Disney wants to make all your dreams come true: Taika Waititi is officially making a new Star Wars movie. As confirmed by Disney and LucasFilm, the Kiwi filmmaker, fresh from helming the final episode of The Mandalorian Season 1, will be cooking up something else in the galaxy far, far away for the big screen – adding to his long, long list of upcoming projects.
https://www.empireonline.com/movies/news/taika-waititi-confirmed-to-direct-new-star-wars-movie/0 -
Hancock Test Track & Trace strategy
TEST in the post lets count it
On TRACK to meet a political target even though tens of thousands are not processed
Not a TRACE of integrity
Goodbye for today.
CLP Accounts to 30.4.20 to do.1 -
Mando > any of the last Skywalker films.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Disney Star Wars is dire crap, apart from Captain Corelli's Mandalorian, allegedly.TheScreamingEagles said:Fantastic news.
Taika Waititi Confirmed To Direct New Star Wars Movie
It’s May the 4th, and Disney wants to make all your dreams come true: Taika Waititi is officially making a new Star Wars movie. As confirmed by Disney and LucasFilm, the Kiwi filmmaker, fresh from helming the final episode of The Mandalorian Season 1, will be cooking up something else in the galaxy far, far away for the big screen – adding to his long, long list of upcoming projects.
https://www.empireonline.com/movies/news/taika-waititi-confirmed-to-direct-new-star-wars-movie/0 -
Have you had your test result back yet ?JohnLilburne said:
That's because of increased testing. A few days ago I wouldn't have been able to get tested for my mild symptoms. We are just picking up people who would never have been tested before. The blue bars are on the old basis of hospital admissions plus health care workers, and seems to be steadily fallingrottenborough said:# new cases seems a bit stubborn.
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Isle of Skye - well, if you will vote for the Ian Blackford...TGOHF666 said:Isle of Wight seeing the benefits of voting Conservative.
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There's no consumption either way as people stay at home, that's why 30 million Americans have lost their jobs - with that starting before lockdown. There doesn't need to be consumption now either.blairf said:
there is no money. none. we turned the engine off.Philip_Thompson said:
Why?blairf said:
it is what it is, what was done is done. getting them off furlough in the next two months is critical.Philip_Thompson said:
Many, many more than if the furlough wasn't there.contrarian said:The numbers on workers furloughed from HRMC are staggering. 6.3 million at a cost of GBP8bn.
How many of those are going to walk back into work when that nice Mr Sunak takes his subsidies away?
There's talk of 3 months potentially until social distancing ends in some businesses. Why would you end furlough in 2 months then end restrictions in 3?
Furlough should end once we are back to normal.
without consumption directly employing shop workers, bar staff, hairdressers, dentists... there is less for bankers, insurers, accountants, property agents, IT professionals, advertising execs, cleaners, recruitment consultants... and so there is less for ... doctors, lawyers, teachers, nurses, soldiers, police people, social workers, bin men. And the reduced demand all round hits factory workers, builders, carpenters, delivery drivers.
and we end up in the utter shit show we are in. we have to get to work and consuming.
£8 billion borrowed at 0.1% interest to keep millions from being made unemployed. Is that all its cost? So £80 million interest costs to protect the economy and save millions of jobs?
Its worth remembering once more than in 1920 when there was no furlough or anything else nominal GDP fell by 20% in one year due to the pandemic and its aftermath. It took two decades and World War Two to start before nominal GDP returned to its 1920 level.0 -
so four million workers when you add the extra universal credit claims right? is that really much better than the US proportionally?DavidL said:
I reckon something like 1m will be made redundant and maybe another million gig workers will find their contracts at an end. Which compared with the 30m jobs lost in the US is an incredibly good result.contrarian said:The numbers on workers furloughed from HRMC are staggering. 6.3 million at a cost of GBP8bn.
How many of those are going to walk back into work when that nice Mr Sunak takes his subsidies away?
I would say given the government's dithering, which is killing the economy more every single day, 2m out of that six is a very conservative estimate.
But we shall see.0 -
It seems to have done quite a number of Guayaquil, Ecuador, though, where the average annual low is 22C/72F.BannedinnParis said:
The only data out there I have seen was that to completely sterilise does appear to require very high temperatures.KentRising said:
I thought heat having a positive impact was debunked? That the virus could live on through temperatures well past those of a good old-fashioned English spring/summer.BigRich said:
Well there are 2 other factors that will have contribution to R falling gradually over the long term.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Assuming that the graph is accurate in portraying those impacts, lockdown could still have saved countless lives.NerysHughes said:
This graph seems to show that lockdown has not made much differenceMalmesbury said:
If the infection period is deemed to last about a week, then if R had stayed at 0.9 the number of new cases at the end of 8 weeks would still be about 43% of the level at the start. By contrast if R were consistently 0.7 it means that new cases would be reduced to about 6% of the original level. R was 0.9 when lockdown started and has declined to about 0.7 since then, although the decline has been gradual not immediate.
1) Some people have now had the desise and therefor wont get it again, this is the start of the heard effect,
2) The weather has been getting warmer, we don't know how big an impact this will have had, as I understand it most of this family of viruses are to some extent weather transmition affected, so this viruses may also be.
Warm weather and sunlight need only interfere with the virus and hinder its transmission to have a positive effect (for us).-1 -
Indeed.MarqueeMark said:
Isle of Skye - well, if you will vote for the Ian Blackford...TGOHF666 said:Isle of Wight seeing the benefits of voting Conservative.
Or maybe its the (Westminster funded) bridge.0 -
One might describe it as 'winning the argument'?kle4 said:
That seems to misunderstand what they intended. Even being referred to as an alternative SAGE means it achieved what it wanted i presume.RobD said:
So it bombed then?FrancisUrquhart said:I somehow doubt Witty and Vallance get stuck into this type of stuff in their SAGE meetings...
https://twitter.com/Starcourse/status/1257277717944426497?s=20
https://twitter.com/Starcourse/status/1257278835873251331?s=20
https://twitter.com/Starcourse/status/1257278392354975746?s=20
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£8m interest at 0.1% on £8 billion.Philip_Thompson said:
There's no consumption either way as people stay at home, that's why 30 million Americans have lost their jobs - with that starting before lockdown. There doesn't need to be consumption now either.blairf said:
there is no money. none. we turned the engine off.Philip_Thompson said:
Why?blairf said:
it is what it is, what was done is done. getting them off furlough in the next two months is critical.Philip_Thompson said:
Many, many more than if the furlough wasn't there.contrarian said:The numbers on workers furloughed from HRMC are staggering. 6.3 million at a cost of GBP8bn.
How many of those are going to walk back into work when that nice Mr Sunak takes his subsidies away?
There's talk of 3 months potentially until social distancing ends in some businesses. Why would you end furlough in 2 months then end restrictions in 3?
Furlough should end once we are back to normal.
without consumption directly employing shop workers, bar staff, hairdressers, dentists... there is less for bankers, insurers, accountants, property agents, IT professionals, advertising execs, cleaners, recruitment consultants... and so there is less for ... doctors, lawyers, teachers, nurses, soldiers, police people, social workers, bin men. And the reduced demand all round hits factory workers, builders, carpenters, delivery drivers.
and we end up in the utter shit show we are in. we have to get to work and consuming.
£8 billion borrowed at 0.1% interest to keep millions from being made unemployed. Is that all its cost? So £80 million interest costs to protect the economy and save millions of jobs?0 -
loft , garage , etcLuckyguy1983 said:
Where else would one store a book?Theuniondivvie said:
Who said anything about reading them? Displaying them on your bookshelf is a different thing.FrancisUrquhart said:Here's the thing, you see. Michael Gove has probably done more for Holocaust education and the Jewish community in Britain than any senior politician other than Gordon Brown. It's obvious to anyone why he would have read the work of a Holocaust denier.
Owen Jones, on the other hand, was an actual cheerleader for Jeremy Corbyn - a man described by one of his own MPs as a "racist antisemite". If Jones had his way, that same Jeremy Corbyn would be in Number Ten right now.
Twitter can be annoying, infuriating and sometimes plain pointless. But sometimes it can reveal truths. And in one stupid tweet last night, Owen Jones confirmed a truth about himself and his fellow hard left travellers: that their true ideology is hypocrisy.
https://www.thejc.com/comment/comment/one-stupid-tweet-by-owen-jones-confirms-all-you-need-to-know-about-the-hard-left-1.499433
I think I have a video of Triumph of The Will kicking about in a trunk somewhere. The humiliation of having a shelf full of videotapes aside, I wouldn't be sticking it in a bookcase anytime. One of my favourite books is Memoirs of an Anti-Semite; in the unlikely event of me appearing on Zoom in front of my books, I'd think hard about displaying that due to the possibility of misinterpretation by the dumbasses that infest the world.0 -
It was funded out of PFI - and the tolls hit the pockets of the local people and their visitors. Edit: Infamously so.TGOHF666 said:
Indeed.MarqueeMark said:
Isle of Skye - well, if you will vote for the Ian Blackford...TGOHF666 said:Isle of Wight seeing the benefits of voting Conservative.
Or maybe its the (Westminster funded) bridge.
Mind, there was no Scottish Parliament then.
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10 months ago this week, we stayed for four nights on the Isle of Skye.MarqueeMark said:
Isle of Skye - well, if you will vote for the Ian Blackford...TGOHF666 said:Isle of Wight seeing the benefits of voting Conservative.
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Oh I am sure there are trivial counter examples, but a reply citing the original French work on high temperature treatments will be taken much more seriously. Cheers!rpjs said:
It seems to have done quite a number of Guayaquil, Ecuador, though, where the average annual low is 22C/72F.BannedinnParis said:
The only data out there I have seen was that to completely sterilise does appear to require very high temperatures.KentRising said:
I thought heat having a positive impact was debunked? That the virus could live on through temperatures well past those of a good old-fashioned English spring/summer.BigRich said:
Well there are 2 other factors that will have contribution to R falling gradually over the long term.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Assuming that the graph is accurate in portraying those impacts, lockdown could still have saved countless lives.NerysHughes said:
This graph seems to show that lockdown has not made much differenceMalmesbury said:
If the infection period is deemed to last about a week, then if R had stayed at 0.9 the number of new cases at the end of 8 weeks would still be about 43% of the level at the start. By contrast if R were consistently 0.7 it means that new cases would be reduced to about 6% of the original level. R was 0.9 when lockdown started and has declined to about 0.7 since then, although the decline has been gradual not immediate.
1) Some people have now had the desise and therefor wont get it again, this is the start of the heard effect,
2) The weather has been getting warmer, we don't know how big an impact this will have had, as I understand it most of this family of viruses are to some extent weather transmition affected, so this viruses may also be.
Warm weather and sunlight need only interfere with the virus and hinder its transmission to have a positive effect (for us).0 -
US media over the weekend featured some small businesses who have been able to re-open over the last few days as their states ease their lockdowns, but are finding that, so far, virtually no-one wants to go out and patronize them anyway.Philip_Thompson said:
There's no consumption either way as people stay at home, that's why 30 million Americans have lost their jobs - with that starting before lockdown. There doesn't need to be consumption now either.blairf said:
there is no money. none. we turned the engine off.Philip_Thompson said:
Why?blairf said:
it is what it is, what was done is done. getting them off furlough in the next two months is critical.Philip_Thompson said:
Many, many more than if the furlough wasn't there.contrarian said:The numbers on workers furloughed from HRMC are staggering. 6.3 million at a cost of GBP8bn.
How many of those are going to walk back into work when that nice Mr Sunak takes his subsidies away?
There's talk of 3 months potentially until social distancing ends in some businesses. Why would you end furlough in 2 months then end restrictions in 3?
Furlough should end once we are back to normal.
without consumption directly employing shop workers, bar staff, hairdressers, dentists... there is less for bankers, insurers, accountants, property agents, IT professionals, advertising execs, cleaners, recruitment consultants... and so there is less for ... doctors, lawyers, teachers, nurses, soldiers, police people, social workers, bin men. And the reduced demand all round hits factory workers, builders, carpenters, delivery drivers.
and we end up in the utter shit show we are in. we have to get to work and consuming.
£8 billion borrowed at 0.1% interest to keep millions from being made unemployed. Is that all its cost? So £80 million interest costs to protect the economy and save millions of jobs?
Its worth remembering once more than in 1920 when there was no furlough or anything else nominal GDP fell by 20% in one year due to the pandemic and its aftermath. It took two decades and World War Two to start before nominal GDP returned to its 1920 level.0 -
I AM SHOCKEDFrancisUrquhart said:
It descended into ranting about Tories austerity killing babies.BannedinnParis said:At the risk of being Off Topic, any more on that truly independent Shadow SAGE committee?
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In 24 hours we'll know.BannedinnParis said:
99 % sure you'll have people chasing weekend effect shadows.Philip_Thompson said:
85k on a Sunday is mighty impressive.FrancisUrquhart said:85k tests...Big John incoming in 5...4...3....2...1..
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Not really. Winning the argument has some measurable related factors associated with it to judge if the person claiming is talking bullshit. This instance just needed them to get some publicity.BannedinnParis said:
One might describe it as 'winning the argument'?kle4 said:
That seems to misunderstand what they intended. Even being referred to as an alternative SAGE means it achieved what it wanted i presume.RobD said:
So it bombed then?FrancisUrquhart said:I somehow doubt Witty and Vallance get stuck into this type of stuff in their SAGE meetings...
https://twitter.com/Starcourse/status/1257277717944426497?s=20
https://twitter.com/Starcourse/status/1257278835873251331?s=20
https://twitter.com/Starcourse/status/1257278392354975746?s=200 -
No not yet. 72 hours and counting.Pulpstar said:
Have you had your test result back yet ?JohnLilburne said:
That's because of increased testing. A few days ago I wouldn't have been able to get tested for my mild symptoms. We are just picking up people who would never have been tested before. The blue bars are on the old basis of hospital admissions plus health care workers, and seems to be steadily fallingrottenborough said:# new cases seems a bit stubborn.
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0
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Meow, look a squirrel over thereTGOHF666 said:
Indeed.MarqueeMark said:
Isle of Skye - well, if you will vote for the Ian Blackford...TGOHF666 said:Isle of Wight seeing the benefits of voting Conservative.
Or maybe its the (Westminster funded) bridge.0 -
Have the midge bites gone down yet?Sunil_Prasannan said:
10 months ago this week, we stayed for four nights on the Isle of Skye.MarqueeMark said:
Isle of Skye - well, if you will vote for the Ian Blackford...TGOHF666 said:Isle of Wight seeing the benefits of voting Conservative.
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Dave Greenfield: The Stranglers keyboard player dies at 71
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-525372930 -
Likely a red squirrel in Skye.malcolmg said:
Meow, look a squirrel over thereTGOHF666 said:
Indeed.MarqueeMark said:
Isle of Skye - well, if you will vote for the Ian Blackford...TGOHF666 said:Isle of Wight seeing the benefits of voting Conservative.
Or maybe its the (Westminster funded) bridge.
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Some of us less yahoo-ey types have more than one bookcase.Luckyguy1983 said:
Where else would one store a book?Theuniondivvie said:
Who said anything about reading them? Displaying them on your bookshelf is a different thing.FrancisUrquhart said:Here's the thing, you see. Michael Gove has probably done more for Holocaust education and the Jewish community in Britain than any senior politician other than Gordon Brown. It's obvious to anyone why he would have read the work of a Holocaust denier.
Owen Jones, on the other hand, was an actual cheerleader for Jeremy Corbyn - a man described by one of his own MPs as a "racist antisemite". If Jones had his way, that same Jeremy Corbyn would be in Number Ten right now.
Twitter can be annoying, infuriating and sometimes plain pointless. But sometimes it can reveal truths. And in one stupid tweet last night, Owen Jones confirmed a truth about himself and his fellow hard left travellers: that their true ideology is hypocrisy.
https://www.thejc.com/comment/comment/one-stupid-tweet-by-owen-jones-confirms-all-you-need-to-know-about-the-hard-left-1.499433
I think I have a video of Triumph of The Will kicking about in a trunk somewhere. The humiliation of having a shelf full of videotapes aside, I wouldn't be sticking it in a bookcase anytime. One of my favourite books is Memoirs of an Anti-Semite; in the unlikely event of me appearing on Zoom in front of my books, I'd think hard about displaying that due to the possibility of misinterpretation by the dumbasses that infest the world.0 -
Asked about anti-vaxxers.....where's the editor of the Lancet?0
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Do these luddites not own a Kindle ?Theuniondivvie said:
Some of us less yahoo-ey types have more than one bookcase.Luckyguy1983 said:
Where else would one store a book?Theuniondivvie said:
Who said anything about reading them? Displaying them on your bookshelf is a different thing.FrancisUrquhart said:Here's the thing, you see. Michael Gove has probably done more for Holocaust education and the Jewish community in Britain than any senior politician other than Gordon Brown. It's obvious to anyone why he would have read the work of a Holocaust denier.
Owen Jones, on the other hand, was an actual cheerleader for Jeremy Corbyn - a man described by one of his own MPs as a "racist antisemite". If Jones had his way, that same Jeremy Corbyn would be in Number Ten right now.
Twitter can be annoying, infuriating and sometimes plain pointless. But sometimes it can reveal truths. And in one stupid tweet last night, Owen Jones confirmed a truth about himself and his fellow hard left travellers: that their true ideology is hypocrisy.
https://www.thejc.com/comment/comment/one-stupid-tweet-by-owen-jones-confirms-all-you-need-to-know-about-the-hard-left-1.499433
I think I have a video of Triumph of The Will kicking about in a trunk somewhere. The humiliation of having a shelf full of videotapes aside, I wouldn't be sticking it in a bookcase anytime. One of my favourite books is Memoirs of an Anti-Semite; in the unlikely event of me appearing on Zoom in front of my books, I'd think hard about displaying that due to the possibility of misinterpretation by the dumbasses that infest the world.0 -
"Nothing to stop Obama serving as vice President"noisywinter said:
Nothing to stop Obama serving as vice President, and indeed as president if the incumbent were to resign or have actuarial demiseMarqueeMark said:
Surely, both sides of Congress would happily amend the Constitution if it prevented Trump and Biden being the only options in November?Alistair said:Own up, which one of you did it
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1257329572124798977
Shadsy is openly mocking people takin this bet.
Exhibit A - the Supreme Court....0 -
That's what I've been saying. If you turn off life support and turn the economy back on prematurely you won't suddenly see an economic recovery instead you'll see lots of businesses going bust.rpjs said:
US media over the weekend featured some small businesses who have been able to re-open over the last few days as their states ease their lockdowns, but are finding that, so far, virtually no-one wants to go out and patronize them anyway.Philip_Thompson said:
There's no consumption either way as people stay at home, that's why 30 million Americans have lost their jobs - with that starting before lockdown. There doesn't need to be consumption now either.blairf said:
there is no money. none. we turned the engine off.Philip_Thompson said:
Why?blairf said:
it is what it is, what was done is done. getting them off furlough in the next two months is critical.Philip_Thompson said:
Many, many more than if the furlough wasn't there.contrarian said:The numbers on workers furloughed from HRMC are staggering. 6.3 million at a cost of GBP8bn.
How many of those are going to walk back into work when that nice Mr Sunak takes his subsidies away?
There's talk of 3 months potentially until social distancing ends in some businesses. Why would you end furlough in 2 months then end restrictions in 3?
Furlough should end once we are back to normal.
without consumption directly employing shop workers, bar staff, hairdressers, dentists... there is less for bankers, insurers, accountants, property agents, IT professionals, advertising execs, cleaners, recruitment consultants... and so there is less for ... doctors, lawyers, teachers, nurses, soldiers, police people, social workers, bin men. And the reduced demand all round hits factory workers, builders, carpenters, delivery drivers.
and we end up in the utter shit show we are in. we have to get to work and consuming.
£8 billion borrowed at 0.1% interest to keep millions from being made unemployed. Is that all its cost? So £80 million interest costs to protect the economy and save millions of jobs?
Its worth remembering once more than in 1920 when there was no furlough or anything else nominal GDP fell by 20% in one year due to the pandemic and its aftermath. It took two decades and World War Two to start before nominal GDP returned to its 1920 level.
On the other hand if we keep furlough going a bit longer you might find that when restrictions and furlough ends then the economic recovery will be much more real.0 -
Such a shame the rule isn't that you can't win more than two Presidential terms in a row.
Surely the point is to prevent an incumbent going on and on - as an incumbent has an advantage in an election.
It would also be great as a spectacle with Presidents going head to head.
We would have had Bush v Clinton in 2004 (*) and Trump v Obama in 2020.
(*) Clinton would have fought an election against a father and his son!0 -
-
Agreed.Philip_Thompson said:
He's got a chance. Could go either way, those odds seem about right to me.Stocky said:What odds should Trump be to win the popular vote? You can lay him at 4.8 with Bf (thin market admittedly). He`s got next to no chance has he?
We are, after all, a solid six months from the election.
If he handles the rest of the CV-19 pandemic well, and manages to deflect blame onto the Chinese government, then it's entirely possible he will be more popular than Biden.
At the same time, I worry the US is reopening too quickly, and we're going to see a terrible second wave in places like Georgia. To miss the first wave can be excused by it blindsiding us. To catch a bad second wave will look awfully like carelessness.0 -
Yeah that should have said nothing to stop George W Bush service as Vice President.MarqueeMark said:
"Nothing to stop Obama serving as vice President"noisywinter said:
Nothing to stop Obama serving as vice President, and indeed as president if the incumbent were to resign or have actuarial demiseMarqueeMark said:
Surely, both sides of Congress would happily amend the Constitution if it prevented Trump and Biden being the only options in November?Alistair said:Own up, which one of you did it
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1257329572124798977
Shadsy is openly mocking people takin this bet.
Exhibit A - the Supreme Court....0 -
Holocaust denial books do furnish a room.TGOHF666 said:
Do these luddites not own a Kindle ?Theuniondivvie said:
Some of us less yahoo-ey types have more than one bookcase.Luckyguy1983 said:
Where else would one store a book?Theuniondivvie said:
Who said anything about reading them? Displaying them on your bookshelf is a different thing.FrancisUrquhart said:Here's the thing, you see. Michael Gove has probably done more for Holocaust education and the Jewish community in Britain than any senior politician other than Gordon Brown. It's obvious to anyone why he would have read the work of a Holocaust denier.
Owen Jones, on the other hand, was an actual cheerleader for Jeremy Corbyn - a man described by one of his own MPs as a "racist antisemite". If Jones had his way, that same Jeremy Corbyn would be in Number Ten right now.
Twitter can be annoying, infuriating and sometimes plain pointless. But sometimes it can reveal truths. And in one stupid tweet last night, Owen Jones confirmed a truth about himself and his fellow hard left travellers: that their true ideology is hypocrisy.
https://www.thejc.com/comment/comment/one-stupid-tweet-by-owen-jones-confirms-all-you-need-to-know-about-the-hard-left-1.499433
I think I have a video of Triumph of The Will kicking about in a trunk somewhere. The humiliation of having a shelf full of videotapes aside, I wouldn't be sticking it in a bookcase anytime. One of my favourite books is Memoirs of an Anti-Semite; in the unlikely event of me appearing on Zoom in front of my books, I'd think hard about displaying that due to the possibility of misinterpretation by the dumbasses that infest the world.0 -
They really aren't mind-blowing, Laura. They are the consequence of a pandemic that risked killing at least 500,000 of us if we just shrugged and said "Meh - I'm off down the pub...."CarlottaVance said:3 -
Nah you'd have farces like the 2008 Russian presidential election all over again.MikeL said:Such a shame the rule isn't that you can't win more than two Presidential terms in a row.
Surely the point is to prevent an incumbent going on and on - as an incumbent has an advantage in an election.
It would also be great as a spectacle with Presidents going head to head.
We would have had Bush v Clinton in 2004 and Trump v Obama in 2020.1 -
For some of us an empty wall, is the Call For Another Bookcase....Theuniondivvie said:
Some of us less yahoo-ey types have more than one bookcase.Luckyguy1983 said:
Where else would one store a book?Theuniondivvie said:
Who said anything about reading them? Displaying them on your bookshelf is a different thing.FrancisUrquhart said:Here's the thing, you see. Michael Gove has probably done more for Holocaust education and the Jewish community in Britain than any senior politician other than Gordon Brown. It's obvious to anyone why he would have read the work of a Holocaust denier.
Owen Jones, on the other hand, was an actual cheerleader for Jeremy Corbyn - a man described by one of his own MPs as a "racist antisemite". If Jones had his way, that same Jeremy Corbyn would be in Number Ten right now.
Twitter can be annoying, infuriating and sometimes plain pointless. But sometimes it can reveal truths. And in one stupid tweet last night, Owen Jones confirmed a truth about himself and his fellow hard left travellers: that their true ideology is hypocrisy.
https://www.thejc.com/comment/comment/one-stupid-tweet-by-owen-jones-confirms-all-you-need-to-know-about-the-hard-left-1.499433
I think I have a video of Triumph of The Will kicking about in a trunk somewhere. The humiliation of having a shelf full of videotapes aside, I wouldn't be sticking it in a bookcase anytime. One of my favourite books is Memoirs of an Anti-Semite; in the unlikely event of me appearing on Zoom in front of my books, I'd think hard about displaying that due to the possibility of misinterpretation by the dumbasses that infest the world.3 -
An excellent main article, thank you. I'm guessing most of the PBers younger than me won't get the original reference for the "Mourning in America" video at the top. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EU-IBF8nwSY
Although there is no rigid definition of Occam's razor, I prefer 'choose the simpler explanation' rather than 'choose the one with less assumptions'. The first version works much better with statistical and machine learning models, where "simpler explanation" becomes "model with less parameters", but also applies to the Wuhan Bat Hypothesis above.0 -
Aye, if we're allowed!Malmesbury said:
For some of us an empty wall, is the Call For Another Bookcase....Theuniondivvie said:
Some of us less yahoo-ey types have more than one bookcase.Luckyguy1983 said:
Where else would one store a book?Theuniondivvie said:
Who said anything about reading them? Displaying them on your bookshelf is a different thing.FrancisUrquhart said:Here's the thing, you see. Michael Gove has probably done more for Holocaust education and the Jewish community in Britain than any senior politician other than Gordon Brown. It's obvious to anyone why he would have read the work of a Holocaust denier.
Owen Jones, on the other hand, was an actual cheerleader for Jeremy Corbyn - a man described by one of his own MPs as a "racist antisemite". If Jones had his way, that same Jeremy Corbyn would be in Number Ten right now.
Twitter can be annoying, infuriating and sometimes plain pointless. But sometimes it can reveal truths. And in one stupid tweet last night, Owen Jones confirmed a truth about himself and his fellow hard left travellers: that their true ideology is hypocrisy.
https://www.thejc.com/comment/comment/one-stupid-tweet-by-owen-jones-confirms-all-you-need-to-know-about-the-hard-left-1.499433
I think I have a video of Triumph of The Will kicking about in a trunk somewhere. The humiliation of having a shelf full of videotapes aside, I wouldn't be sticking it in a bookcase anytime. One of my favourite books is Memoirs of an Anti-Semite; in the unlikely event of me appearing on Zoom in front of my books, I'd think hard about displaying that due to the possibility of misinterpretation by the dumbasses that infest the world.
'Haven't you already read all these old books?'1 -
The accuracy of coronavirus tests used in Tanzania has been questioned by the country's president after a goat and a papaya both tested positive for the disease.
President John Magufuli, whose government has already faced criticism over its handling of coronavirus outbreak and has previously asked people to pray the disease away, said the kits had "technical errors".
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-tanzania-testing-kits-questioned-after-goat-and-papaya-test-positive-119828640 -
You just don't get it do you?contrarian said:
so four million workers when you add the extra universal credit claims right? is that really much better than the US proportionally?DavidL said:
I reckon something like 1m will be made redundant and maybe another million gig workers will find their contracts at an end. Which compared with the 30m jobs lost in the US is an incredibly good result.contrarian said:The numbers on workers furloughed from HRMC are staggering. 6.3 million at a cost of GBP8bn.
How many of those are going to walk back into work when that nice Mr Sunak takes his subsidies away?
I would say given the government's dithering, which is killing the economy more every single day, 2m out of that six is a very conservative estimate.
But we shall see.
The lockdown is working.
The economy would be in a worse state if there were no lockdown and Covid-19 had run riot.1 -
Might incline me to watch a Star Wars dead horse being flogged, might not.
https://twitter.com/DEADLINE/status/1257345002654621697?s=200 -
Don't think that is correct, check out Legal Eagles YouTube video on whether trump could serve a third termMarqueeMark said:
"Nothing to stop Obama serving as vice President"noisywinter said:
Nothing to stop Obama serving as vice President, and indeed as president if the incumbent were to resign or have actuarial demiseMarqueeMark said:
Surely, both sides of Congress would happily amend the Constitution if it prevented Trump and Biden being the only options in November?Alistair said:Own up, which one of you did it
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1257329572124798977
Shadsy is openly mocking people takin this bet.
Exhibit A - the Supreme Court....0 -
I can think of many US presidential clashes I'd like to see, but that doesn't mean it's a good idea.MikeL said:Such a shame the rule isn't that you can't win more than two Presidential terms in a row.
Surely the point is to prevent an incumbent going on and on - as an incumbent has an advantage in an election.
It would also be great as a spectacle with Presidents going head to head.
We would have had Bush v Clinton in 2004 (*) and Trump v Obama in 2020.
(*) Clinton would have fought an election against a father and his son!
If there should be any change it would be to allow 3 consecutive terms not a comeback after a break.0 -
Agreed. Rogue One was also a good film, though. And they are all 30 million times better than Ep I-III.TGOHF666 said:
Mando > any of the last Skywalker films.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Disney Star Wars is dire crap, apart from Captain Corelli's Mandalorian, allegedly.TheScreamingEagles said:Fantastic news.
Taika Waititi Confirmed To Direct New Star Wars Movie
It’s May the 4th, and Disney wants to make all your dreams come true: Taika Waititi is officially making a new Star Wars movie. As confirmed by Disney and LucasFilm, the Kiwi filmmaker, fresh from helming the final episode of The Mandalorian Season 1, will be cooking up something else in the galaxy far, far away for the big screen – adding to his long, long list of upcoming projects.
https://www.empireonline.com/movies/news/taika-waititi-confirmed-to-direct-new-star-wars-movie/0 -
Unfortunately, for some people, the fact that the lockdowns have prevented millions of deaths is proof that COVID-19 is "no worse than the flu" after all.eristdoof said:
You just don't get it do you?contrarian said:
so four million workers when you add the extra universal credit claims right? is that really much better than the US proportionally?DavidL said:
I reckon something like 1m will be made redundant and maybe another million gig workers will find their contracts at an end. Which compared with the 30m jobs lost in the US is an incredibly good result.contrarian said:The numbers on workers furloughed from HRMC are staggering. 6.3 million at a cost of GBP8bn.
How many of those are going to walk back into work when that nice Mr Sunak takes his subsidies away?
I would say given the government's dithering, which is killing the economy more every single day, 2m out of that six is a very conservative estimate.
But we shall see.
The lockdown is working.
The economy would be in a worse state if there were no lockdown and Covid-19 had run riot.0 -
Conclusion shopping (from last week)...
Trump Officials Are Said to Press Spies to Link Virus and Wuhan Labs
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/30/us/politics/trump-administration-intelligence-coronavirus-china.html0 -
This angle will be tough for the "economic effects of lockdown are killing people, we must reopen now" crowd to argue against.FrancisUrquhart said:
It descended into ranting about Tories austerity killing babies.BannedinnParis said:At the risk of being Off Topic, any more on that truly independent Shadow SAGE committee?
Unless they are goo g to go for, well those economic policies didn't kill anyone whilst these ones totally are.0 -
except it wouldn't have if we hadn't arsed up the response. ref korea, thailand, japan, sweden, iceland, taiwan, and yes even china. we drove our economy off a cliff in a fit of panic fuelled by hysteria and rushed modelling. hey ho. we need to kick on. And that is accepting we are not ALL GOING TO DIE by going back to workeristdoof said:
You just don't get it do you?contrarian said:
so four million workers when you add the extra universal credit claims right? is that really much better than the US proportionally?DavidL said:
I reckon something like 1m will be made redundant and maybe another million gig workers will find their contracts at an end. Which compared with the 30m jobs lost in the US is an incredibly good result.contrarian said:The numbers on workers furloughed from HRMC are staggering. 6.3 million at a cost of GBP8bn.
How many of those are going to walk back into work when that nice Mr Sunak takes his subsidies away?
I would say given the government's dithering, which is killing the economy more every single day, 2m out of that six is a very conservative estimate.
But we shall see.
The lockdown is working.
The economy would be in a worse state if there were no lockdown and Covid-19 had run riot.
1 -
Better or worse than New Delhi? That is the only place I’ve seen pollution haze inside a building (the arrivals terminal).OldKingCole said:
You're right about Xi'an. Fascinating, but I thought Beijing was badly polluted, until we went to Xi'an. We were there 2009.Pulpstar said:
Went Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Xi'an (Horrendously polluted), ChengduMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Pulpstar, I was in China a year earlier. Whereabouts were you?
I visited mostly Shanghai and Beijing.
Here's me in Yangshuo
/>0 -
Penddu2 said:
I lived in Shanghai for one year - fantastic place.
I visted Beijing - Forbidden City and Great Wall are...Great. But otherwise not up to much.
I also visited Tianjing - filthy;
Qingdao - great beer but otherwise - meh
Jiangsu, QiDong nothing to report.
Shandong area is interesting
Guangshou ok
I love Shanghai. Up there with London, New York, Hong Kong, Beirut and Istanbul in my book. Shenzhen - at least the coastal resort bits around Yantian - is pretty nice too0 -
The trouble with it is that as used it usually conflicts with the dictum that "Everything should be made as simple as possible, but no simpler." Entertainingly, Occam himself used it to defend the existence of miracles, which most people probably think require a rather complicated explanation involving self-delusion and religious psychology rather than the pleasingly simple "God made it happen." Similarly, look at Father Christmas: either he exists, or Mummy and Daddy (known opponents of the telling of lies) have deliberately conspired to lie to us. Again, criminal law becomes very easy for prosecutors: look, members of the jury, the Defendant is in the dock. What is the most likely explanation of his getting there? Wood burns down to ashes which are so light they blow away: is it more likely that the loss of weight comes of losing something (phlogiston) or of combination with something (oxygen)? And for that matter: it makes people cough and gives them a fever, and kills off a lot of old people but others quite often recover. I say it's flu, you have introduced a new entity called covid 19. I win.eristdoof said:An excellent main article, thank you. I'm guessing most of the PBers younger than me won't get the original reference for the "Mourning in America" video at the top. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EU-IBF8nwSY
Although there is no rigid definition of Occam's razor, I prefer 'choose the simpler explanation' rather than 'choose the one with less assumptions'. The first version works much better with statistical and machine learning models, where "simpler explanation" becomes "model with less parameters", but also applies to the Wuhan Bat Hypothesis above.
It isn't a completely useless maxim, but it is a rough and ready rule of thumb, not a rule of logic which says that nothing is ever complicated or counterintuitive.
0 -
According to Ferguson's model.MarqueeMark said:
They really aren't mind-blowing, Laura. They are the consequence of a pandemic that risked killing at least 500,000 of us if we just shrugged and said "Meh - I'm off down the pub...."CarlottaVance said:
Others seem to be available.0 -
You realise that Sweden is seeing large job losses right now too don't you?blairf said:
except it wouldn't have if we hadn't arsed up the response. ref korea, thailand, japan, sweden, iceland, taiwan, and yes even china. we drove our economy off a cliff in a fit of panic fuelled by hysteria and rushed modelling. hey ho. we need to kick on. And that is accepting we are not ALL GOING TO DIE by going back to workeristdoof said:
You just don't get it do you?contrarian said:
so four million workers when you add the extra universal credit claims right? is that really much better than the US proportionally?DavidL said:
I reckon something like 1m will be made redundant and maybe another million gig workers will find their contracts at an end. Which compared with the 30m jobs lost in the US is an incredibly good result.contrarian said:The numbers on workers furloughed from HRMC are staggering. 6.3 million at a cost of GBP8bn.
How many of those are going to walk back into work when that nice Mr Sunak takes his subsidies away?
I would say given the government's dithering, which is killing the economy more every single day, 2m out of that six is a very conservative estimate.
But we shall see.
The lockdown is working.
The economy would be in a worse state if there were no lockdown and Covid-19 had run riot.0 -
Should have said - it sold rocks and fossils!sarissa said:
I passed a closed shop the other day which had a sign in the window “No toilet rolls are stored on these premises”FrancisUrquhart said:I predict masks are going to be the new bog rolls in a month or two. And unlike bog roll, which was a distribution issue, there will be a long term shortage problem.
0 -
Spare a thought for us Heart of Midlothian supporters on indefinite death row...Scrapheap_as_was said:Spurs' unbeaten run is one of the few positives currently.....
0 -
It seems there is still confusion regarding the statistics in the ranks of the MSM. From my Google News feed:
UK coronavirus hospital death toll rises by 229 in lowest total in six weeks
Mirror Online
20 minutes ago
Coronavirus map LIVE: UK death toll rises by 288 - lowest daily total in seven weeks
Express
1 hour ago
UK coronavirus death toll hits 28,734 as 288 more people die but it’s the lowest rise for five weeks
The Sun
15 minutes ago
0 -
I think Obama would have beaten Trump to get a third term and Clinton would have beaten Bush to get a third term and Reagan would definitely have beaten Dukakis to get a third term, however Obama would probably have beaten Bush in 2008 anyway so he would only have got the 2 terms.MikeL said:Such a shame the rule isn't that you can't win more than two Presidential terms in a row.
Surely the point is to prevent an incumbent going on and on - as an incumbent has an advantage in an election.
It would also be great as a spectacle with Presidents going head to head.
We would have had Bush v Clinton in 2004 (*) and Trump v Obama in 2020.
(*) Clinton would have fought an election against a father and his son!
However even the best leaders should stop at 10 years, Blair leaving in 2007 was the best thing to happen to him, Thatcher should have gone in 1989 rather than being forced out in tears in 1990 by Heseltine' s leadership challenge1 -
Pathetic joke attempt alert!TGOHF666 said:
Indeed.MarqueeMark said:
Isle of Skye - well, if you will vote for the Ian Blackford...TGOHF666 said:Isle of Wight seeing the benefits of voting Conservative.
Or maybe its the (Westminster funded) bridge.0 -
we all are. the global economy just got borked. we need to deal with that. it has happened. now we need to review the wreckage and get on with it. more debt and refusing to accept the reality of furlough to redundancy (which everyone is looking at, trust me, everyone) won't work.Philip_Thompson said:
You realise that Sweden is seeing large job losses right now too don't you?blairf said:
except it wouldn't have if we hadn't arsed up the response. ref korea, thailand, japan, sweden, iceland, taiwan, and yes even china. we drove our economy off a cliff in a fit of panic fuelled by hysteria and rushed modelling. hey ho. we need to kick on. And that is accepting we are not ALL GOING TO DIE by going back to workeristdoof said:
You just don't get it do you?contrarian said:
so four million workers when you add the extra universal credit claims right? is that really much better than the US proportionally?DavidL said:
I reckon something like 1m will be made redundant and maybe another million gig workers will find their contracts at an end. Which compared with the 30m jobs lost in the US is an incredibly good result.contrarian said:The numbers on workers furloughed from HRMC are staggering. 6.3 million at a cost of GBP8bn.
How many of those are going to walk back into work when that nice Mr Sunak takes his subsidies away?
I would say given the government's dithering, which is killing the economy more every single day, 2m out of that six is a very conservative estimate.
But we shall see.
The lockdown is working.
The economy would be in a worse state if there were no lockdown and Covid-19 had run riot.0 -
That sounds good to me.IshmaelZ said:
The trouble with it is that as used it usually conflicts with the dictum that "Everything should be made as simple as possible, but no simpler." Entertainingly, Occam himself used it to defend the existence of miracles, which most people probably think require a rather complicated explanation involving self-delusion and religious psychology rather than the pleasingly simple "God made it happen." Similarly, look at Father Christmas: either he exists, or Mummy and Daddy (known opponents of the telling of lies) have deliberately conspired to lie to us. Again, criminal law becomes very easy for prosecutors: look, members of the jury, the Defendant is in the dock. What is the most likely explanation of his getting there? Wood burns down to ashes which are so light they blow away: is it more likely that the loss of weight comes of losing something (phlogiston) or of combination with something (oxygen)? And for that matter: it makes people cough and gives them a fever, and kills off a lot of old people but others quite often recover. I say it's flu, you have introduced a new entity called covid 19. I win.eristdoof said:An excellent main article, thank you. I'm guessing most of the PBers younger than me won't get the original reference for the "Mourning in America" video at the top. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EU-IBF8nwSY
Although there is no rigid definition of Occam's razor, I prefer 'choose the simpler explanation' rather than 'choose the one with less assumptions'. The first version works much better with statistical and machine learning models, where "simpler explanation" becomes "model with less parameters", but also applies to the Wuhan Bat Hypothesis above.
It isn't a completely useless maxim, but it is a rough and ready rule of thumb, not a rule of logic which says that nothing is ever complicated or counterintuitive.
I go by this - if there is nothing wrong with the simple explanation it is very likely the explanation.
Don't know whose razor that is - or even if it is one - but I do find it usually works.
Unless it doesn't, of course, but that is not so often.0 -
Latest polling has Biden doing better in Michigan and Pennsylvania than nationally, Michigan and Pennsylvania and the Hillary states gives him 269 EC votes and the Presidency as the Democratic controlled house is the decider in a tie. So not impossible Trump wins the popular vote and Biden the EC in a reverse of 2016Stocky said:What odds should Trump be to win the popular vote? You can lay him at 4.8 with Bf (thin market admittedly). He`s got next to no chance has he?
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1256779250000158720?s=200 -
'Us' is a complete misnomer. NHS England figures show that if you are healthy and under 60 the risks really are extremely small. 250 people with no other conditions have died between 0 and 60.rottenborough said:
According to Ferguson's model.MarqueeMark said:
They really aren't mind-blowing, Laura. They are the consequence of a pandemic that risked killing at least 500,000 of us if we just shrugged and said "Meh - I'm off down the pub...."CarlottaVance said:
Others seem to be available.
even for healthy people up to 80 its under 1000.
We may think we are in this together but the virus absolutely doesn't. Cruelly, it goes for those who are both aged and infirm.1 -
-
Do we have statistics as to how many younger people who catch the virus need hospital treatment, intensive care, and ventilators? Despite their mostly recovering, there might be a significant burden on health services to achieve that.contrarian said:
'Us' is a complete misnomer. NHS England figures show that if you are healthy and under 60 the risks really are extremely small. 250 people with no other conditions have died between 0 and 60.rottenborough said:
According to Ferguson's model.MarqueeMark said:
They really aren't mind-blowing, Laura. They are the consequence of a pandemic that risked killing at least 500,000 of us if we just shrugged and said "Meh - I'm off down the pub...."CarlottaVance said:
Others seem to be available.
even for healthy people up to 80 its under 1000.
We may think we are in this together but the virus absolutely doesn't.0 -
14% of under 40s have a long term condition.contrarian said:
'Us' is a complete misnomer. NHS England figures show that if you are healthy and under 60 the risks really are extremely small. 250 people with no other conditions have died between 0 and 60.rottenborough said:
According to Ferguson's model.MarqueeMark said:
They really aren't mind-blowing, Laura. They are the consequence of a pandemic that risked killing at least 500,000 of us if we just shrugged and said "Meh - I'm off down the pub...."CarlottaVance said:
Others seem to be available.
even for healthy people up to 80 its under 1000.
We may think we are in this together but the virus absolutely doesn't. Cruelly, it goes for those who are both aged and infirm.0 -
Actually Robert, I think it’s highly likely the Wuhan lab was implicated
Case 1: unlucky farmer sells infected bat to wet market and it somehow cross contaminates a shopper
Case 2: lab collects lots of specimens of infected bats near the wet market. An underpaid employee illicitly sells some (probably multiple over time) bats to the market. One of them cross contaminates a shopper
Basically case 1 you have to be really unlucky. Case 2 you have lots of shots on goal.0 -
Didn't the Chinese enforce leadership changes every 10 years for a few decades, pre Xi (post Mao obviously), presumably on a similar principle?HYUFD said:
I think Obama would have beaten Trump to get a third term and Clinton would have beaten Bush to get a third term and Reagan would definitely have beaten Dukakis to get a third term, however Obama would probably have beaten Bush in 2008 anyway so he would only have got the 2 terms.MikeL said:Such a shame the rule isn't that you can't win more than two Presidential terms in a row.
Surely the point is to prevent an incumbent going on and on - as an incumbent has an advantage in an election.
It would also be great as a spectacle with Presidents going head to head.
We would have had Bush v Clinton in 2004 (*) and Trump v Obama in 2020.
(*) Clinton would have fought an election against a father and his son!
However even the best leaders should stop at 10 years, Blair leaving in 2007 was the best thing to happen to him, Thatcher should have gone in 1989 rather than being forced out in tears in 1990 by Heseltine' s leadership challenge1 -
Wrong. The house vote doesn't work the way you think it does. It needs a majority of states. It has a built-in republican majority.HYUFD said:
Latest polling has Biden doing better in Michigan and Pennsylvania than nationally, Michigan and Pennsylvania and the Hillary states gives him 269 EC votes and the Presidency as the Democratic controlled house is the decider in a tie. So not impossible Trump wins the popular vote and Biden the EC in a reverse of 2016Stocky said:What odds should Trump be to win the popular vote? You can lay him at 4.8 with Bf (thin market admittedly). He`s got next to no chance has he?
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1256779250000158720?s=200 -
Case 3: Poor hygiene leads to an employee getting infected in the lab. Passes on the virus via human to human transmission at the wet market.Charles said:Actually Robert, I think it’s highly likely the Wuhan lab was implicated
Case 1: unlucky farmer sells infected bat to wet market and it somehow cross contaminates a shopper
Case 2: lab collects lots of specimens of infected bats near the wet market. An underpaid employee illicitly sells some (probably multiple over time) bats to the market. One of them cross contaminates a shopper
Basically case 1 you have to be really unlucky. Case 2 you have lots of shots on goal.
Given "patient zero" has never been identified that seems quite plausible.0 -
Ask the barstewards about Crossrial, HS2 and all the other infrastructure in England we pay for.Carnyx said:
It was funded out of PFI - and the tolls hit the pockets of the local people and their visitors. Edit: Infamously so.TGOHF666 said:
Indeed.MarqueeMark said:
Isle of Skye - well, if you will vote for the Ian Blackford...TGOHF666 said:Isle of Wight seeing the benefits of voting Conservative.
Or maybe its the (Westminster funded) bridge.
Mind, there was no Scottish Parliament then.0 -
Well we don't know what the wreckage is yet. If we can eliminate the virus New Zealand style then we may be able to lift more restrictions while putting more in at the border and avoid much of the economic damage.blairf said:
we all are. the global economy just got borked. we need to deal with that. it has happened. now we need to review the wreckage and get on with it. more debt and refusing to accept the reality of furlough to redundancy (which everyone is looking at, trust me, everyone) won't work.Philip_Thompson said:
You realise that Sweden is seeing large job losses right now too don't you?blairf said:
except it wouldn't have if we hadn't arsed up the response. ref korea, thailand, japan, sweden, iceland, taiwan, and yes even china. we drove our economy off a cliff in a fit of panic fuelled by hysteria and rushed modelling. hey ho. we need to kick on. And that is accepting we are not ALL GOING TO DIE by going back to workeristdoof said:
You just don't get it do you?contrarian said:
so four million workers when you add the extra universal credit claims right? is that really much better than the US proportionally?DavidL said:
I reckon something like 1m will be made redundant and maybe another million gig workers will find their contracts at an end. Which compared with the 30m jobs lost in the US is an incredibly good result.contrarian said:The numbers on workers furloughed from HRMC are staggering. 6.3 million at a cost of GBP8bn.
How many of those are going to walk back into work when that nice Mr Sunak takes his subsidies away?
I would say given the government's dithering, which is killing the economy more every single day, 2m out of that six is a very conservative estimate.
But we shall see.
The lockdown is working.
The economy would be in a worse state if there were no lockdown and Covid-19 had run riot.
It will take a bit of patience at this stage.0 -
That's a very fair point but I think the numbers show anybody under 40 has a very good chance of survival.Alistair said:
14% of under 40s have a long term condition.contrarian said:
'Us' is a complete misnomer. NHS England figures show that if you are healthy and under 60 the risks really are extremely small. 250 people with no other conditions have died between 0 and 60.rottenborough said:
According to Ferguson's model.MarqueeMark said:
They really aren't mind-blowing, Laura. They are the consequence of a pandemic that risked killing at least 500,000 of us if we just shrugged and said "Meh - I'm off down the pub...."CarlottaVance said:
Others seem to be available.
even for healthy people up to 80 its under 1000.
We may think we are in this together but the virus absolutely doesn't. Cruelly, it goes for those who are both aged and infirm.
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The first patient that has been confirmed from mid November had no contact with the wet market. Now either it was much wider spread much earlier or the wet market wasn't the origin.Philip_Thompson said:
Case 3: Poor hygiene leads to an employee getting infected in the lab. Passes on the virus via human to human transmission at the wet market.Charles said:Actually Robert, I think it’s highly likely the Wuhan lab was implicated
Case 1: unlucky farmer sells infected bat to wet market and it somehow cross contaminates a shopper
Case 2: lab collects lots of specimens of infected bats near the wet market. An underpaid employee illicitly sells some (probably multiple over time) bats to the market. One of them cross contaminates a shopper
Basically case 1 you have to be really unlucky. Case 2 you have lots of shots on goal.
Given "patient zero" has never been identified that seems quite plausible.0 -
You don't pay for those. We've discussed this before, they're classed as local expenditure here and you get Barnett consequentials for them. Why do you still repeat that claim?malcolmg said:
Ask the barstewards about Crossrial, HS2 and all the other infrastructure in England we pay for.Carnyx said:
It was funded out of PFI - and the tolls hit the pockets of the local people and their visitors. Edit: Infamously so.TGOHF666 said:
Indeed.MarqueeMark said:
Isle of Skye - well, if you will vote for the Ian Blackford...TGOHF666 said:Isle of Wight seeing the benefits of voting Conservative.
Or maybe its the (Westminster funded) bridge.
Mind, there was no Scottish Parliament then.0 -
Case 3: Wuhan lab virus hunters actively go out into the field and collect 20,000 wild type bat coronaviruses from large bat colonies in caves, then selectively work on those closest to making the zoonotic jump to humans, and even do gain of function work on these viruses. Then they have lots of unreported LAIs (lab acquired infections) with such viruses, one of which happens to permit human to human transmission, which then occurs both inside and outside the lab before its impact is known.Charles said:Actually Robert, I think it’s highly likely the Wuhan lab was implicated
Case 1: unlucky farmer sells infected bat to wet market and it somehow cross contaminates a shopper
Case 2: lab collects lots of specimens of infected bats near the wet market. An underpaid employee illicitly sells some (probably multiple over time) bats to the market. One of them cross contaminates a shopper
Basically case 1 you have to be really unlucky. Case 2 you have lots of shots on goal.0
