I predict masks are going to be the new bog rolls in a month or two. And unlike bog roll, which was a distribution issue, there will be a long term shortage problem.
I passed a closed shop the other day which had a sign in the window “No toilet rolls are stored on these premises”
Here's the thing, you see. Michael Gove has probably done more for Holocaust education and the Jewish community in Britain than any senior politician other than Gordon Brown. It's obvious to anyone why he would have read the work of a Holocaust denier.
Owen Jones, on the other hand, was an actual cheerleader for Jeremy Corbyn - a man described by one of his own MPs as a "racist antisemite". If Jones had his way, that same Jeremy Corbyn would be in Number Ten right now.
Twitter can be annoying, infuriating and sometimes plain pointless. But sometimes it can reveal truths. And in one stupid tweet last night, Owen Jones confirmed a truth about himself and his fellow hard left travellers: that their true ideology is hypocrisy.
Who said anything about reading them? Displaying them on your bookshelf is a different thing.
I think I have a video of Triumph of The Will kicking about in a trunk somewhere. The humiliation of having a shelf full of videotapes aside, I wouldn't be sticking it in a bookcase anytime. One of my favourite books is Memoirs of an Anti-Semite; in the unlikely event of me appearing on Zoom in front of my books, I'd think hard about displaying that due to the possibility of misinterpretation by the dumbasses that infest the world.
The numbers on workers furloughed from HRMC are staggering. 6.3 million at a cost of GBP8bn.
How many of those are going to walk back into work when that nice Mr Sunak takes his subsidies away?
Many, many more than if the furlough wasn't there.
it is what it is, what was done is done. getting them off furlough in the next two months is critical.
Why?
There's talk of 3 months potentially until social distancing ends in some businesses. Why would you end furlough in 2 months then end restrictions in 3?
Furlough should end once we are back to normal.
there is no money. none. we turned the engine off.
without consumption directly employing shop workers, bar staff, hairdressers, dentists... there is less for bankers, insurers, accountants, property agents, IT professionals, advertising execs, cleaners, recruitment consultants... and so there is less for ... doctors, lawyers, teachers, nurses, soldiers, police people, social workers, bin men. And the reduced demand all round hits factory workers, builders, carpenters, delivery drivers.
and we end up in the utter shit show we are in. we have to get to work and consuming.
Taika Waititi Confirmed To Direct New Star Wars Movie
It’s May the 4th, and Disney wants to make all your dreams come true: Taika Waititi is officially making a new Star Wars movie. As confirmed by Disney and LucasFilm, the Kiwi filmmaker, fresh from helming the final episode of The Mandalorian Season 1, will be cooking up something else in the galaxy far, far away for the big screen – adding to his long, long list of upcoming projects.
Taika Waititi Confirmed To Direct New Star Wars Movie
It’s May the 4th, and Disney wants to make all your dreams come true: Taika Waititi is officially making a new Star Wars movie. As confirmed by Disney and LucasFilm, the Kiwi filmmaker, fresh from helming the final episode of The Mandalorian Season 1, will be cooking up something else in the galaxy far, far away for the big screen – adding to his long, long list of upcoming projects.
Is a former two terms president ineligible to be elected to Congress?
No. Only VP needs to be eligible to become President (I think).
So Obama can still become president again then.
Nope. Even if he got into the order of succession by reason of being elected to Congress, he would be eliminated from the said order of succession by his being elected president twice.
Surely that cannot count as being elected president?
Becoming President doesn't require election, it does require eligibility.
But the 22nd only prohibits being elected president.
You're right.
However, the Presidential Succession Act of 1947 states that the order of succession to the Presidency in the event of a vacancy of both the President and Vice-President only applies to those constitutionally eligible to be elected President. So in the current administration, Elaine Chao, the Secretary of Transportation, could not succeed as she's a naturalized, not natural-born, US citizen. Even if Obama became Speaker of the House, President Pro-Tem of the Senate or one of the Cabinet officers designated by that statute as being in the line of succession, he could not succeed as he's ineligible to be elected as President again.
I think the only way Obama could become POTUS again would be for the Vice-Presidency to fall vacant, POTUS to appoint Obama to be VP and a majority of both houses ratifying this, and the President to then die or resign.
6th-8th March looks very significant - from 3 to pretty much 1.
What happened there?
This graph seems to show that lockdown has not made much difference
Assuming that the graph is accurate in portraying those impacts, lockdown could still have saved countless lives.
If the infection period is deemed to last about a week, then if R had stayed at 0.9 the number of new cases at the end of 8 weeks would still be about 43% of the level at the start. By contrast if R were consistently 0.7 it means that new cases would be reduced to about 6% of the original level. R was 0.9 when lockdown started and has declined to about 0.7 since then, although the decline has been gradual not immediate.
Well there are 2 other factors that will have contribution to R falling gradually over the long term.
1) Some people have now had the desise and therefor wont get it again, this is the start of the heard effect,
2) The weather has been getting warmer, we don't know how big an impact this will have had, as I understand it most of this family of viruses are to some extent weather transmition affected, so this viruses may also be.
I thought heat having a positive impact was debunked? That the virus could live on through temperatures well past those of a good old-fashioned English spring/summer.
The only data out there I have seen was that to completely sterilise does appear to require very high temperatures.
Warm weather and sunlight need only interfere with the virus and hinder its transmission to have a positive effect (for us).
Taika Waititi Confirmed To Direct New Star Wars Movie
It’s May the 4th, and Disney wants to make all your dreams come true: Taika Waititi is officially making a new Star Wars movie. As confirmed by Disney and LucasFilm, the Kiwi filmmaker, fresh from helming the final episode of The Mandalorian Season 1, will be cooking up something else in the galaxy far, far away for the big screen – adding to his long, long list of upcoming projects.
Taika Waititi Confirmed To Direct New Star Wars Movie
It’s May the 4th, and Disney wants to make all your dreams come true: Taika Waititi is officially making a new Star Wars movie. As confirmed by Disney and LucasFilm, the Kiwi filmmaker, fresh from helming the final episode of The Mandalorian Season 1, will be cooking up something else in the galaxy far, far away for the big screen – adding to his long, long list of upcoming projects.
Taika Waititi Confirmed To Direct New Star Wars Movie
It’s May the 4th, and Disney wants to make all your dreams come true: Taika Waititi is officially making a new Star Wars movie. As confirmed by Disney and LucasFilm, the Kiwi filmmaker, fresh from helming the final episode of The Mandalorian Season 1, will be cooking up something else in the galaxy far, far away for the big screen – adding to his long, long list of upcoming projects.
That's because of increased testing. A few days ago I wouldn't have been able to get tested for my mild symptoms. We are just picking up people who would never have been tested before. The blue bars are on the old basis of hospital admissions plus health care workers, and seems to be steadily falling
The numbers on workers furloughed from HRMC are staggering. 6.3 million at a cost of GBP8bn.
How many of those are going to walk back into work when that nice Mr Sunak takes his subsidies away?
Many, many more than if the furlough wasn't there.
it is what it is, what was done is done. getting them off furlough in the next two months is critical.
Why?
There's talk of 3 months potentially until social distancing ends in some businesses. Why would you end furlough in 2 months then end restrictions in 3?
Furlough should end once we are back to normal.
there is no money. none. we turned the engine off.
without consumption directly employing shop workers, bar staff, hairdressers, dentists... there is less for bankers, insurers, accountants, property agents, IT professionals, advertising execs, cleaners, recruitment consultants... and so there is less for ... doctors, lawyers, teachers, nurses, soldiers, police people, social workers, bin men. And the reduced demand all round hits factory workers, builders, carpenters, delivery drivers.
and we end up in the utter shit show we are in. we have to get to work and consuming.
There's no consumption either way as people stay at home, that's why 30 million Americans have lost their jobs - with that starting before lockdown. There doesn't need to be consumption now either.
£8 billion borrowed at 0.1% interest to keep millions from being made unemployed. Is that all its cost? So £80 million interest costs to protect the economy and save millions of jobs?
Its worth remembering once more than in 1920 when there was no furlough or anything else nominal GDP fell by 20% in one year due to the pandemic and its aftermath. It took two decades and World War Two to start before nominal GDP returned to its 1920 level.
The numbers on workers furloughed from HRMC are staggering. 6.3 million at a cost of GBP8bn.
How many of those are going to walk back into work when that nice Mr Sunak takes his subsidies away?
I reckon something like 1m will be made redundant and maybe another million gig workers will find their contracts at an end. Which compared with the 30m jobs lost in the US is an incredibly good result.
so four million workers when you add the extra universal credit claims right? is that really much better than the US proportionally?
I would say given the government's dithering, which is killing the economy more every single day, 2m out of that six is a very conservative estimate.
6th-8th March looks very significant - from 3 to pretty much 1.
What happened there?
This graph seems to show that lockdown has not made much difference
Assuming that the graph is accurate in portraying those impacts, lockdown could still have saved countless lives.
If the infection period is deemed to last about a week, then if R had stayed at 0.9 the number of new cases at the end of 8 weeks would still be about 43% of the level at the start. By contrast if R were consistently 0.7 it means that new cases would be reduced to about 6% of the original level. R was 0.9 when lockdown started and has declined to about 0.7 since then, although the decline has been gradual not immediate.
Well there are 2 other factors that will have contribution to R falling gradually over the long term.
1) Some people have now had the desise and therefor wont get it again, this is the start of the heard effect,
2) The weather has been getting warmer, we don't know how big an impact this will have had, as I understand it most of this family of viruses are to some extent weather transmition affected, so this viruses may also be.
I thought heat having a positive impact was debunked? That the virus could live on through temperatures well past those of a good old-fashioned English spring/summer.
The only data out there I have seen was that to completely sterilise does appear to require very high temperatures.
Warm weather and sunlight need only interfere with the virus and hinder its transmission to have a positive effect (for us).
It seems to have done quite a number of Guayaquil, Ecuador, though, where the average annual low is 22C/72F.
The numbers on workers furloughed from HRMC are staggering. 6.3 million at a cost of GBP8bn.
How many of those are going to walk back into work when that nice Mr Sunak takes his subsidies away?
Many, many more than if the furlough wasn't there.
it is what it is, what was done is done. getting them off furlough in the next two months is critical.
Why?
There's talk of 3 months potentially until social distancing ends in some businesses. Why would you end furlough in 2 months then end restrictions in 3?
Furlough should end once we are back to normal.
there is no money. none. we turned the engine off.
without consumption directly employing shop workers, bar staff, hairdressers, dentists... there is less for bankers, insurers, accountants, property agents, IT professionals, advertising execs, cleaners, recruitment consultants... and so there is less for ... doctors, lawyers, teachers, nurses, soldiers, police people, social workers, bin men. And the reduced demand all round hits factory workers, builders, carpenters, delivery drivers.
and we end up in the utter shit show we are in. we have to get to work and consuming.
There's no consumption either way as people stay at home, that's why 30 million Americans have lost their jobs - with that starting before lockdown. There doesn't need to be consumption now either.
£8 billion borrowed at 0.1% interest to keep millions from being made unemployed. Is that all its cost? So £80 million interest costs to protect the economy and save millions of jobs?
Here's the thing, you see. Michael Gove has probably done more for Holocaust education and the Jewish community in Britain than any senior politician other than Gordon Brown. It's obvious to anyone why he would have read the work of a Holocaust denier.
Owen Jones, on the other hand, was an actual cheerleader for Jeremy Corbyn - a man described by one of his own MPs as a "racist antisemite". If Jones had his way, that same Jeremy Corbyn would be in Number Ten right now.
Twitter can be annoying, infuriating and sometimes plain pointless. But sometimes it can reveal truths. And in one stupid tweet last night, Owen Jones confirmed a truth about himself and his fellow hard left travellers: that their true ideology is hypocrisy.
Who said anything about reading them? Displaying them on your bookshelf is a different thing.
I think I have a video of Triumph of The Will kicking about in a trunk somewhere. The humiliation of having a shelf full of videotapes aside, I wouldn't be sticking it in a bookcase anytime. One of my favourite books is Memoirs of an Anti-Semite; in the unlikely event of me appearing on Zoom in front of my books, I'd think hard about displaying that due to the possibility of misinterpretation by the dumbasses that infest the world.
6th-8th March looks very significant - from 3 to pretty much 1.
What happened there?
This graph seems to show that lockdown has not made much difference
Assuming that the graph is accurate in portraying those impacts, lockdown could still have saved countless lives.
If the infection period is deemed to last about a week, then if R had stayed at 0.9 the number of new cases at the end of 8 weeks would still be about 43% of the level at the start. By contrast if R were consistently 0.7 it means that new cases would be reduced to about 6% of the original level. R was 0.9 when lockdown started and has declined to about 0.7 since then, although the decline has been gradual not immediate.
Well there are 2 other factors that will have contribution to R falling gradually over the long term.
1) Some people have now had the desise and therefor wont get it again, this is the start of the heard effect,
2) The weather has been getting warmer, we don't know how big an impact this will have had, as I understand it most of this family of viruses are to some extent weather transmition affected, so this viruses may also be.
I thought heat having a positive impact was debunked? That the virus could live on through temperatures well past those of a good old-fashioned English spring/summer.
The only data out there I have seen was that to completely sterilise does appear to require very high temperatures.
Warm weather and sunlight need only interfere with the virus and hinder its transmission to have a positive effect (for us).
It seems to have done quite a number of Guayaquil, Ecuador, though, where the average annual low is 22C/72F.
Oh I am sure there are trivial counter examples, but a reply citing the original French work on high temperature treatments will be taken much more seriously. Cheers!
The numbers on workers furloughed from HRMC are staggering. 6.3 million at a cost of GBP8bn.
How many of those are going to walk back into work when that nice Mr Sunak takes his subsidies away?
Many, many more than if the furlough wasn't there.
it is what it is, what was done is done. getting them off furlough in the next two months is critical.
Why?
There's talk of 3 months potentially until social distancing ends in some businesses. Why would you end furlough in 2 months then end restrictions in 3?
Furlough should end once we are back to normal.
there is no money. none. we turned the engine off.
without consumption directly employing shop workers, bar staff, hairdressers, dentists... there is less for bankers, insurers, accountants, property agents, IT professionals, advertising execs, cleaners, recruitment consultants... and so there is less for ... doctors, lawyers, teachers, nurses, soldiers, police people, social workers, bin men. And the reduced demand all round hits factory workers, builders, carpenters, delivery drivers.
and we end up in the utter shit show we are in. we have to get to work and consuming.
There's no consumption either way as people stay at home, that's why 30 million Americans have lost their jobs - with that starting before lockdown. There doesn't need to be consumption now either.
£8 billion borrowed at 0.1% interest to keep millions from being made unemployed. Is that all its cost? So £80 million interest costs to protect the economy and save millions of jobs?
Its worth remembering once more than in 1920 when there was no furlough or anything else nominal GDP fell by 20% in one year due to the pandemic and its aftermath. It took two decades and World War Two to start before nominal GDP returned to its 1920 level.
US media over the weekend featured some small businesses who have been able to re-open over the last few days as their states ease their lockdowns, but are finding that, so far, virtually no-one wants to go out and patronize them anyway.
That seems to misunderstand what they intended. Even being referred to as an alternative SAGE means it achieved what it wanted i presume.
One might describe it as 'winning the argument'?
Not really. Winning the argument has some measurable related factors associated with it to judge if the person claiming is talking bullshit. This instance just needed them to get some publicity.
That's because of increased testing. A few days ago I wouldn't have been able to get tested for my mild symptoms. We are just picking up people who would never have been tested before. The blue bars are on the old basis of hospital admissions plus health care workers, and seems to be steadily falling
Here's the thing, you see. Michael Gove has probably done more for Holocaust education and the Jewish community in Britain than any senior politician other than Gordon Brown. It's obvious to anyone why he would have read the work of a Holocaust denier.
Owen Jones, on the other hand, was an actual cheerleader for Jeremy Corbyn - a man described by one of his own MPs as a "racist antisemite". If Jones had his way, that same Jeremy Corbyn would be in Number Ten right now.
Twitter can be annoying, infuriating and sometimes plain pointless. But sometimes it can reveal truths. And in one stupid tweet last night, Owen Jones confirmed a truth about himself and his fellow hard left travellers: that their true ideology is hypocrisy.
Who said anything about reading them? Displaying them on your bookshelf is a different thing.
I think I have a video of Triumph of The Will kicking about in a trunk somewhere. The humiliation of having a shelf full of videotapes aside, I wouldn't be sticking it in a bookcase anytime. One of my favourite books is Memoirs of an Anti-Semite; in the unlikely event of me appearing on Zoom in front of my books, I'd think hard about displaying that due to the possibility of misinterpretation by the dumbasses that infest the world.
Where else would one store a book?
Some of us less yahoo-ey types have more than one bookcase.
Here's the thing, you see. Michael Gove has probably done more for Holocaust education and the Jewish community in Britain than any senior politician other than Gordon Brown. It's obvious to anyone why he would have read the work of a Holocaust denier.
Owen Jones, on the other hand, was an actual cheerleader for Jeremy Corbyn - a man described by one of his own MPs as a "racist antisemite". If Jones had his way, that same Jeremy Corbyn would be in Number Ten right now.
Twitter can be annoying, infuriating and sometimes plain pointless. But sometimes it can reveal truths. And in one stupid tweet last night, Owen Jones confirmed a truth about himself and his fellow hard left travellers: that their true ideology is hypocrisy.
Who said anything about reading them? Displaying them on your bookshelf is a different thing.
I think I have a video of Triumph of The Will kicking about in a trunk somewhere. The humiliation of having a shelf full of videotapes aside, I wouldn't be sticking it in a bookcase anytime. One of my favourite books is Memoirs of an Anti-Semite; in the unlikely event of me appearing on Zoom in front of my books, I'd think hard about displaying that due to the possibility of misinterpretation by the dumbasses that infest the world.
Where else would one store a book?
Some of us less yahoo-ey types have more than one bookcase.
The numbers on workers furloughed from HRMC are staggering. 6.3 million at a cost of GBP8bn.
How many of those are going to walk back into work when that nice Mr Sunak takes his subsidies away?
Many, many more than if the furlough wasn't there.
it is what it is, what was done is done. getting them off furlough in the next two months is critical.
Why?
There's talk of 3 months potentially until social distancing ends in some businesses. Why would you end furlough in 2 months then end restrictions in 3?
Furlough should end once we are back to normal.
there is no money. none. we turned the engine off.
without consumption directly employing shop workers, bar staff, hairdressers, dentists... there is less for bankers, insurers, accountants, property agents, IT professionals, advertising execs, cleaners, recruitment consultants... and so there is less for ... doctors, lawyers, teachers, nurses, soldiers, police people, social workers, bin men. And the reduced demand all round hits factory workers, builders, carpenters, delivery drivers.
and we end up in the utter shit show we are in. we have to get to work and consuming.
There's no consumption either way as people stay at home, that's why 30 million Americans have lost their jobs - with that starting before lockdown. There doesn't need to be consumption now either.
£8 billion borrowed at 0.1% interest to keep millions from being made unemployed. Is that all its cost? So £80 million interest costs to protect the economy and save millions of jobs?
Its worth remembering once more than in 1920 when there was no furlough or anything else nominal GDP fell by 20% in one year due to the pandemic and its aftermath. It took two decades and World War Two to start before nominal GDP returned to its 1920 level.
US media over the weekend featured some small businesses who have been able to re-open over the last few days as their states ease their lockdowns, but are finding that, so far, virtually no-one wants to go out and patronize them anyway.
That's what I've been saying. If you turn off life support and turn the economy back on prematurely you won't suddenly see an economic recovery instead you'll see lots of businesses going bust.
On the other hand if we keep furlough going a bit longer you might find that when restrictions and furlough ends then the economic recovery will be much more real.
What odds should Trump be to win the popular vote? You can lay him at 4.8 with Bf (thin market admittedly). He`s got next to no chance has he?
He's got a chance. Could go either way, those odds seem about right to me.
Agreed.
We are, after all, a solid six months from the election.
If he handles the rest of the CV-19 pandemic well, and manages to deflect blame onto the Chinese government, then it's entirely possible he will be more popular than Biden.
At the same time, I worry the US is reopening too quickly, and we're going to see a terrible second wave in places like Georgia. To miss the first wave can be excused by it blindsiding us. To catch a bad second wave will look awfully like carelessness.
Here's the thing, you see. Michael Gove has probably done more for Holocaust education and the Jewish community in Britain than any senior politician other than Gordon Brown. It's obvious to anyone why he would have read the work of a Holocaust denier.
Owen Jones, on the other hand, was an actual cheerleader for Jeremy Corbyn - a man described by one of his own MPs as a "racist antisemite". If Jones had his way, that same Jeremy Corbyn would be in Number Ten right now.
Twitter can be annoying, infuriating and sometimes plain pointless. But sometimes it can reveal truths. And in one stupid tweet last night, Owen Jones confirmed a truth about himself and his fellow hard left travellers: that their true ideology is hypocrisy.
Who said anything about reading them? Displaying them on your bookshelf is a different thing.
I think I have a video of Triumph of The Will kicking about in a trunk somewhere. The humiliation of having a shelf full of videotapes aside, I wouldn't be sticking it in a bookcase anytime. One of my favourite books is Memoirs of an Anti-Semite; in the unlikely event of me appearing on Zoom in front of my books, I'd think hard about displaying that due to the possibility of misinterpretation by the dumbasses that infest the world.
Where else would one store a book?
Some of us less yahoo-ey types have more than one bookcase.
They really aren't mind-blowing, Laura. They are the consequence of a pandemic that risked killing at least 500,000 of us if we just shrugged and said "Meh - I'm off down the pub...."
Here's the thing, you see. Michael Gove has probably done more for Holocaust education and the Jewish community in Britain than any senior politician other than Gordon Brown. It's obvious to anyone why he would have read the work of a Holocaust denier.
Owen Jones, on the other hand, was an actual cheerleader for Jeremy Corbyn - a man described by one of his own MPs as a "racist antisemite". If Jones had his way, that same Jeremy Corbyn would be in Number Ten right now.
Twitter can be annoying, infuriating and sometimes plain pointless. But sometimes it can reveal truths. And in one stupid tweet last night, Owen Jones confirmed a truth about himself and his fellow hard left travellers: that their true ideology is hypocrisy.
Who said anything about reading them? Displaying them on your bookshelf is a different thing.
I think I have a video of Triumph of The Will kicking about in a trunk somewhere. The humiliation of having a shelf full of videotapes aside, I wouldn't be sticking it in a bookcase anytime. One of my favourite books is Memoirs of an Anti-Semite; in the unlikely event of me appearing on Zoom in front of my books, I'd think hard about displaying that due to the possibility of misinterpretation by the dumbasses that infest the world.
Where else would one store a book?
Some of us less yahoo-ey types have more than one bookcase.
For some of us an empty wall, is the Call For Another Bookcase....
An excellent main article, thank you. I'm guessing most of the PBers younger than me won't get the original reference for the "Mourning in America" video at the top. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EU-IBF8nwSY
Although there is no rigid definition of Occam's razor, I prefer 'choose the simpler explanation' rather than 'choose the one with less assumptions'. The first version works much better with statistical and machine learning models, where "simpler explanation" becomes "model with less parameters", but also applies to the Wuhan Bat Hypothesis above.
Here's the thing, you see. Michael Gove has probably done more for Holocaust education and the Jewish community in Britain than any senior politician other than Gordon Brown. It's obvious to anyone why he would have read the work of a Holocaust denier.
Owen Jones, on the other hand, was an actual cheerleader for Jeremy Corbyn - a man described by one of his own MPs as a "racist antisemite". If Jones had his way, that same Jeremy Corbyn would be in Number Ten right now.
Twitter can be annoying, infuriating and sometimes plain pointless. But sometimes it can reveal truths. And in one stupid tweet last night, Owen Jones confirmed a truth about himself and his fellow hard left travellers: that their true ideology is hypocrisy.
Who said anything about reading them? Displaying them on your bookshelf is a different thing.
I think I have a video of Triumph of The Will kicking about in a trunk somewhere. The humiliation of having a shelf full of videotapes aside, I wouldn't be sticking it in a bookcase anytime. One of my favourite books is Memoirs of an Anti-Semite; in the unlikely event of me appearing on Zoom in front of my books, I'd think hard about displaying that due to the possibility of misinterpretation by the dumbasses that infest the world.
Where else would one store a book?
Some of us less yahoo-ey types have more than one bookcase.
For some of us an empty wall, is the Call For Another Bookcase....
The accuracy of coronavirus tests used in Tanzania has been questioned by the country's president after a goat and a papaya both tested positive for the disease.
President John Magufuli, whose government has already faced criticism over its handling of coronavirus outbreak and has previously asked people to pray the disease away, said the kits had "technical errors".
The numbers on workers furloughed from HRMC are staggering. 6.3 million at a cost of GBP8bn.
How many of those are going to walk back into work when that nice Mr Sunak takes his subsidies away?
I reckon something like 1m will be made redundant and maybe another million gig workers will find their contracts at an end. Which compared with the 30m jobs lost in the US is an incredibly good result.
so four million workers when you add the extra universal credit claims right? is that really much better than the US proportionally?
I would say given the government's dithering, which is killing the economy more every single day, 2m out of that six is a very conservative estimate.
But we shall see.
You just don't get it do you? The lockdown is working. The economy would be in a worse state if there were no lockdown and Covid-19 had run riot.
Taika Waititi Confirmed To Direct New Star Wars Movie
It’s May the 4th, and Disney wants to make all your dreams come true: Taika Waititi is officially making a new Star Wars movie. As confirmed by Disney and LucasFilm, the Kiwi filmmaker, fresh from helming the final episode of The Mandalorian Season 1, will be cooking up something else in the galaxy far, far away for the big screen – adding to his long, long list of upcoming projects.
The numbers on workers furloughed from HRMC are staggering. 6.3 million at a cost of GBP8bn.
How many of those are going to walk back into work when that nice Mr Sunak takes his subsidies away?
I reckon something like 1m will be made redundant and maybe another million gig workers will find their contracts at an end. Which compared with the 30m jobs lost in the US is an incredibly good result.
so four million workers when you add the extra universal credit claims right? is that really much better than the US proportionally?
I would say given the government's dithering, which is killing the economy more every single day, 2m out of that six is a very conservative estimate.
But we shall see.
You just don't get it do you? The lockdown is working. The economy would be in a worse state if there were no lockdown and Covid-19 had run riot.
Unfortunately, for some people, the fact that the lockdowns have prevented millions of deaths is proof that COVID-19 is "no worse than the flu" after all.
The numbers on workers furloughed from HRMC are staggering. 6.3 million at a cost of GBP8bn.
How many of those are going to walk back into work when that nice Mr Sunak takes his subsidies away?
I reckon something like 1m will be made redundant and maybe another million gig workers will find their contracts at an end. Which compared with the 30m jobs lost in the US is an incredibly good result.
so four million workers when you add the extra universal credit claims right? is that really much better than the US proportionally?
I would say given the government's dithering, which is killing the economy more every single day, 2m out of that six is a very conservative estimate.
But we shall see.
You just don't get it do you? The lockdown is working. The economy would be in a worse state if there were no lockdown and Covid-19 had run riot.
except it wouldn't have if we hadn't arsed up the response. ref korea, thailand, japan, sweden, iceland, taiwan, and yes even china. we drove our economy off a cliff in a fit of panic fuelled by hysteria and rushed modelling. hey ho. we need to kick on. And that is accepting we are not ALL GOING TO DIE by going back to work
I lived in Shanghai for one year - fantastic place. I visted Beijing - Forbidden City and Great Wall are...Great. But otherwise not up to much. I also visited Tianjing - filthy; Qingdao - great beer but otherwise - meh Jiangsu, QiDong nothing to report. Shandong area is interesting Guangshou ok
I love Shanghai. Up there with London, New York, Hong Kong, Beirut and Istanbul in my book. Shenzhen - at least the coastal resort bits around Yantian - is pretty nice too
An excellent main article, thank you. I'm guessing most of the PBers younger than me won't get the original reference for the "Mourning in America" video at the top. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EU-IBF8nwSY
Although there is no rigid definition of Occam's razor, I prefer 'choose the simpler explanation' rather than 'choose the one with less assumptions'. The first version works much better with statistical and machine learning models, where "simpler explanation" becomes "model with less parameters", but also applies to the Wuhan Bat Hypothesis above.
The trouble with it is that as used it usually conflicts with the dictum that "Everything should be made as simple as possible, but no simpler." Entertainingly, Occam himself used it to defend the existence of miracles, which most people probably think require a rather complicated explanation involving self-delusion and religious psychology rather than the pleasingly simple "God made it happen." Similarly, look at Father Christmas: either he exists, or Mummy and Daddy (known opponents of the telling of lies) have deliberately conspired to lie to us. Again, criminal law becomes very easy for prosecutors: look, members of the jury, the Defendant is in the dock. What is the most likely explanation of his getting there? Wood burns down to ashes which are so light they blow away: is it more likely that the loss of weight comes of losing something (phlogiston) or of combination with something (oxygen)? And for that matter: it makes people cough and gives them a fever, and kills off a lot of old people but others quite often recover. I say it's flu, you have introduced a new entity called covid 19. I win.
It isn't a completely useless maxim, but it is a rough and ready rule of thumb, not a rule of logic which says that nothing is ever complicated or counterintuitive.
They really aren't mind-blowing, Laura. They are the consequence of a pandemic that risked killing at least 500,000 of us if we just shrugged and said "Meh - I'm off down the pub...."
The numbers on workers furloughed from HRMC are staggering. 6.3 million at a cost of GBP8bn.
How many of those are going to walk back into work when that nice Mr Sunak takes his subsidies away?
I reckon something like 1m will be made redundant and maybe another million gig workers will find their contracts at an end. Which compared with the 30m jobs lost in the US is an incredibly good result.
so four million workers when you add the extra universal credit claims right? is that really much better than the US proportionally?
I would say given the government's dithering, which is killing the economy more every single day, 2m out of that six is a very conservative estimate.
But we shall see.
You just don't get it do you? The lockdown is working. The economy would be in a worse state if there were no lockdown and Covid-19 had run riot.
except it wouldn't have if we hadn't arsed up the response. ref korea, thailand, japan, sweden, iceland, taiwan, and yes even china. we drove our economy off a cliff in a fit of panic fuelled by hysteria and rushed modelling. hey ho. we need to kick on. And that is accepting we are not ALL GOING TO DIE by going back to work
You realise that Sweden is seeing large job losses right now too don't you?
I predict masks are going to be the new bog rolls in a month or two. And unlike bog roll, which was a distribution issue, there will be a long term shortage problem.
I passed a closed shop the other day which had a sign in the window “No toilet rolls are stored on these premises”
It seems there is still confusion regarding the statistics in the ranks of the MSM. From my Google News feed:
UK coronavirus hospital death toll rises by 229 in lowest total in six weeks Mirror Online 20 minutes ago Coronavirus map LIVE: UK death toll rises by 288 - lowest daily total in seven weeks Express 1 hour ago
UK coronavirus death toll hits 28,734 as 288 more people die but it’s the lowest rise for five weeks The Sun 15 minutes ago
Such a shame the rule isn't that you can't win more than two Presidential terms in a row.
Surely the point is to prevent an incumbent going on and on - as an incumbent has an advantage in an election.
It would also be great as a spectacle with Presidents going head to head.
We would have had Bush v Clinton in 2004 (*) and Trump v Obama in 2020.
(*) Clinton would have fought an election against a father and his son!
I think Obama would have beaten Trump to get a third term and Clinton would have beaten Bush to get a third term and Reagan would definitely have beaten Dukakis to get a third term, however Obama would probably have beaten Bush in 2008 anyway so he would only have got the 2 terms.
However even the best leaders should stop at 10 years, Blair leaving in 2007 was the best thing to happen to him, Thatcher should have gone in 1989 rather than being forced out in tears in 1990 by Heseltine' s leadership challenge
The numbers on workers furloughed from HRMC are staggering. 6.3 million at a cost of GBP8bn.
How many of those are going to walk back into work when that nice Mr Sunak takes his subsidies away?
I reckon something like 1m will be made redundant and maybe another million gig workers will find their contracts at an end. Which compared with the 30m jobs lost in the US is an incredibly good result.
so four million workers when you add the extra universal credit claims right? is that really much better than the US proportionally?
I would say given the government's dithering, which is killing the economy more every single day, 2m out of that six is a very conservative estimate.
But we shall see.
You just don't get it do you? The lockdown is working. The economy would be in a worse state if there were no lockdown and Covid-19 had run riot.
except it wouldn't have if we hadn't arsed up the response. ref korea, thailand, japan, sweden, iceland, taiwan, and yes even china. we drove our economy off a cliff in a fit of panic fuelled by hysteria and rushed modelling. hey ho. we need to kick on. And that is accepting we are not ALL GOING TO DIE by going back to work
You realise that Sweden is seeing large job losses right now too don't you?
we all are. the global economy just got borked. we need to deal with that. it has happened. now we need to review the wreckage and get on with it. more debt and refusing to accept the reality of furlough to redundancy (which everyone is looking at, trust me, everyone) won't work.
An excellent main article, thank you. I'm guessing most of the PBers younger than me won't get the original reference for the "Mourning in America" video at the top. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EU-IBF8nwSY
Although there is no rigid definition of Occam's razor, I prefer 'choose the simpler explanation' rather than 'choose the one with less assumptions'. The first version works much better with statistical and machine learning models, where "simpler explanation" becomes "model with less parameters", but also applies to the Wuhan Bat Hypothesis above.
The trouble with it is that as used it usually conflicts with the dictum that "Everything should be made as simple as possible, but no simpler." Entertainingly, Occam himself used it to defend the existence of miracles, which most people probably think require a rather complicated explanation involving self-delusion and religious psychology rather than the pleasingly simple "God made it happen." Similarly, look at Father Christmas: either he exists, or Mummy and Daddy (known opponents of the telling of lies) have deliberately conspired to lie to us. Again, criminal law becomes very easy for prosecutors: look, members of the jury, the Defendant is in the dock. What is the most likely explanation of his getting there? Wood burns down to ashes which are so light they blow away: is it more likely that the loss of weight comes of losing something (phlogiston) or of combination with something (oxygen)? And for that matter: it makes people cough and gives them a fever, and kills off a lot of old people but others quite often recover. I say it's flu, you have introduced a new entity called covid 19. I win.
It isn't a completely useless maxim, but it is a rough and ready rule of thumb, not a rule of logic which says that nothing is ever complicated or counterintuitive.
That sounds good to me.
I go by this - if there is nothing wrong with the simple explanation it is very likely the explanation.
Don't know whose razor that is - or even if it is one - but I do find it usually works.
Unless it doesn't, of course, but that is not so often.
What odds should Trump be to win the popular vote? You can lay him at 4.8 with Bf (thin market admittedly). He`s got next to no chance has he?
Latest polling has Biden doing better in Michigan and Pennsylvania than nationally, Michigan and Pennsylvania and the Hillary states gives him 269 EC votes and the Presidency as the Democratic controlled house is the decider in a tie. So not impossible Trump wins the popular vote and Biden the EC in a reverse of 2016
They really aren't mind-blowing, Laura. They are the consequence of a pandemic that risked killing at least 500,000 of us if we just shrugged and said "Meh - I'm off down the pub...."
According to Ferguson's model.
Others seem to be available.
'Us' is a complete misnomer. NHS England figures show that if you are healthy and under 60 the risks really are extremely small. 250 people with no other conditions have died between 0 and 60.
even for healthy people up to 80 its under 1000.
We may think we are in this together but the virus absolutely doesn't. Cruelly, it goes for those who are both aged and infirm.
They really aren't mind-blowing, Laura. They are the consequence of a pandemic that risked killing at least 500,000 of us if we just shrugged and said "Meh - I'm off down the pub...."
According to Ferguson's model.
Others seem to be available.
'Us' is a complete misnomer. NHS England figures show that if you are healthy and under 60 the risks really are extremely small. 250 people with no other conditions have died between 0 and 60.
even for healthy people up to 80 its under 1000.
We may think we are in this together but the virus absolutely doesn't.
Do we have statistics as to how many younger people who catch the virus need hospital treatment, intensive care, and ventilators? Despite their mostly recovering, there might be a significant burden on health services to achieve that.
They really aren't mind-blowing, Laura. They are the consequence of a pandemic that risked killing at least 500,000 of us if we just shrugged and said "Meh - I'm off down the pub...."
According to Ferguson's model.
Others seem to be available.
'Us' is a complete misnomer. NHS England figures show that if you are healthy and under 60 the risks really are extremely small. 250 people with no other conditions have died between 0 and 60.
even for healthy people up to 80 its under 1000.
We may think we are in this together but the virus absolutely doesn't. Cruelly, it goes for those who are both aged and infirm.
Actually Robert, I think it’s highly likely the Wuhan lab was implicated
Case 1: unlucky farmer sells infected bat to wet market and it somehow cross contaminates a shopper
Case 2: lab collects lots of specimens of infected bats near the wet market. An underpaid employee illicitly sells some (probably multiple over time) bats to the market. One of them cross contaminates a shopper
Basically case 1 you have to be really unlucky. Case 2 you have lots of shots on goal.
Such a shame the rule isn't that you can't win more than two Presidential terms in a row.
Surely the point is to prevent an incumbent going on and on - as an incumbent has an advantage in an election.
It would also be great as a spectacle with Presidents going head to head.
We would have had Bush v Clinton in 2004 (*) and Trump v Obama in 2020.
(*) Clinton would have fought an election against a father and his son!
I think Obama would have beaten Trump to get a third term and Clinton would have beaten Bush to get a third term and Reagan would definitely have beaten Dukakis to get a third term, however Obama would probably have beaten Bush in 2008 anyway so he would only have got the 2 terms.
However even the best leaders should stop at 10 years, Blair leaving in 2007 was the best thing to happen to him, Thatcher should have gone in 1989 rather than being forced out in tears in 1990 by Heseltine' s leadership challenge
Didn't the Chinese enforce leadership changes every 10 years for a few decades, pre Xi (post Mao obviously), presumably on a similar principle?
What odds should Trump be to win the popular vote? You can lay him at 4.8 with Bf (thin market admittedly). He`s got next to no chance has he?
Latest polling has Biden doing better in Michigan and Pennsylvania than nationally, Michigan and Pennsylvania and the Hillary states gives him 269 EC votes and the Presidency as the Democratic controlled house is the decider in a tie. So not impossible Trump wins the popular vote and Biden the EC in a reverse of 2016
Actually Robert, I think it’s highly likely the Wuhan lab was implicated
Case 1: unlucky farmer sells infected bat to wet market and it somehow cross contaminates a shopper
Case 2: lab collects lots of specimens of infected bats near the wet market. An underpaid employee illicitly sells some (probably multiple over time) bats to the market. One of them cross contaminates a shopper
Basically case 1 you have to be really unlucky. Case 2 you have lots of shots on goal.
Case 3: Poor hygiene leads to an employee getting infected in the lab. Passes on the virus via human to human transmission at the wet market.
Given "patient zero" has never been identified that seems quite plausible.
The numbers on workers furloughed from HRMC are staggering. 6.3 million at a cost of GBP8bn.
How many of those are going to walk back into work when that nice Mr Sunak takes his subsidies away?
I reckon something like 1m will be made redundant and maybe another million gig workers will find their contracts at an end. Which compared with the 30m jobs lost in the US is an incredibly good result.
so four million workers when you add the extra universal credit claims right? is that really much better than the US proportionally?
I would say given the government's dithering, which is killing the economy more every single day, 2m out of that six is a very conservative estimate.
But we shall see.
You just don't get it do you? The lockdown is working. The economy would be in a worse state if there were no lockdown and Covid-19 had run riot.
except it wouldn't have if we hadn't arsed up the response. ref korea, thailand, japan, sweden, iceland, taiwan, and yes even china. we drove our economy off a cliff in a fit of panic fuelled by hysteria and rushed modelling. hey ho. we need to kick on. And that is accepting we are not ALL GOING TO DIE by going back to work
You realise that Sweden is seeing large job losses right now too don't you?
we all are. the global economy just got borked. we need to deal with that. it has happened. now we need to review the wreckage and get on with it. more debt and refusing to accept the reality of furlough to redundancy (which everyone is looking at, trust me, everyone) won't work.
Well we don't know what the wreckage is yet. If we can eliminate the virus New Zealand style then we may be able to lift more restrictions while putting more in at the border and avoid much of the economic damage.
They really aren't mind-blowing, Laura. They are the consequence of a pandemic that risked killing at least 500,000 of us if we just shrugged and said "Meh - I'm off down the pub...."
According to Ferguson's model.
Others seem to be available.
'Us' is a complete misnomer. NHS England figures show that if you are healthy and under 60 the risks really are extremely small. 250 people with no other conditions have died between 0 and 60.
even for healthy people up to 80 its under 1000.
We may think we are in this together but the virus absolutely doesn't. Cruelly, it goes for those who are both aged and infirm.
14% of under 40s have a long term condition.
That's a very fair point but I think the numbers show anybody under 40 has a very good chance of survival.
Actually Robert, I think it’s highly likely the Wuhan lab was implicated
Case 1: unlucky farmer sells infected bat to wet market and it somehow cross contaminates a shopper
Case 2: lab collects lots of specimens of infected bats near the wet market. An underpaid employee illicitly sells some (probably multiple over time) bats to the market. One of them cross contaminates a shopper
Basically case 1 you have to be really unlucky. Case 2 you have lots of shots on goal.
Case 3: Poor hygiene leads to an employee getting infected in the lab. Passes on the virus via human to human transmission at the wet market.
Given "patient zero" has never been identified that seems quite plausible.
The first patient that has been confirmed from mid November had no contact with the wet market. Now either it was much wider spread much earlier or the wet market wasn't the origin.
Isle of Wight seeing the benefits of voting Conservative.
Isle of Skye - well, if you will vote for the Ian Blackford...
Indeed.
Or maybe its the (Westminster funded) bridge.
It was funded out of PFI - and the tolls hit the pockets of the local people and their visitors. Edit: Infamously so.
Mind, there was no Scottish Parliament then.
Ask the barstewards about Crossrial, HS2 and all the other infrastructure in England we pay for.
You don't pay for those. We've discussed this before, they're classed as local expenditure here and you get Barnett consequentials for them. Why do you still repeat that claim?
Actually Robert, I think it’s highly likely the Wuhan lab was implicated
Case 1: unlucky farmer sells infected bat to wet market and it somehow cross contaminates a shopper
Case 2: lab collects lots of specimens of infected bats near the wet market. An underpaid employee illicitly sells some (probably multiple over time) bats to the market. One of them cross contaminates a shopper
Basically case 1 you have to be really unlucky. Case 2 you have lots of shots on goal.
Case 3: Wuhan lab virus hunters actively go out into the field and collect 20,000 wild type bat coronaviruses from large bat colonies in caves, then selectively work on those closest to making the zoonotic jump to humans, and even do gain of function work on these viruses. Then they have lots of unreported LAIs (lab acquired infections) with such viruses, one of which happens to permit human to human transmission, which then occurs both inside and outside the lab before its impact is known.
Comments
https://www.euroweeklynews.com/2020/05/04/spains-pm-pedro-sanchez-struggles-to-get-support-to-extend-lockdown-for-fourth-time-on-wednesday/?fbclid=IwAR2bLm1dkeNwv1d5mE_6meZqSLhb5LjE4OiERuISKCyxSPFjmJd_-lgHb2c
without consumption directly employing shop workers, bar staff, hairdressers, dentists... there is less for bankers, insurers, accountants, property agents, IT professionals, advertising execs, cleaners, recruitment consultants... and so there is less for ... doctors, lawyers, teachers, nurses, soldiers, police people, social workers, bin men. And the reduced demand all round hits factory workers, builders, carpenters, delivery drivers.
and we end up in the utter shit show we are in. we have to get to work and consuming.
Taika Waititi Confirmed To Direct New Star Wars Movie
It’s May the 4th, and Disney wants to make all your dreams come true: Taika Waititi is officially making a new Star Wars movie. As confirmed by Disney and LucasFilm, the Kiwi filmmaker, fresh from helming the final episode of The Mandalorian Season 1, will be cooking up something else in the galaxy far, far away for the big screen – adding to his long, long list of upcoming projects.
https://www.empireonline.com/movies/news/taika-waititi-confirmed-to-direct-new-star-wars-movie/
I think the only way Obama could become POTUS again would be for the Vice-Presidency to fall vacant, POTUS to appoint Obama to be VP and a majority of both houses ratifying this, and the President to then die or resign.
Warm weather and sunlight need only interfere with the virus and hinder its transmission to have a positive effect (for us).
TEST in the post lets count it
On TRACK to meet a political target even though tens of thousands are not processed
Not a TRACE of integrity
Goodbye for today.
CLP Accounts to 30.4.20 to do.
£8 billion borrowed at 0.1% interest to keep millions from being made unemployed. Is that all its cost? So £80 million interest costs to protect the economy and save millions of jobs?
Its worth remembering once more than in 1920 when there was no furlough or anything else nominal GDP fell by 20% in one year due to the pandemic and its aftermath. It took two decades and World War Two to start before nominal GDP returned to its 1920 level.
I would say given the government's dithering, which is killing the economy more every single day, 2m out of that six is a very conservative estimate.
But we shall see.
Or maybe its the (Westminster funded) bridge.
Mind, there was no Scottish Parliament then.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52530828
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-52537293
Exhibit A - the Supreme Court....
On the other hand if we keep furlough going a bit longer you might find that when restrictions and furlough ends then the economic recovery will be much more real.
Surely the point is to prevent an incumbent going on and on - as an incumbent has an advantage in an election.
It would also be great as a spectacle with Presidents going head to head.
We would have had Bush v Clinton in 2004 (*) and Trump v Obama in 2020.
(*) Clinton would have fought an election against a father and his son!
https://twitter.com/BraidenGB/status/1257343867298422786?s=20
We are, after all, a solid six months from the election.
If he handles the rest of the CV-19 pandemic well, and manages to deflect blame onto the Chinese government, then it's entirely possible he will be more popular than Biden.
At the same time, I worry the US is reopening too quickly, and we're going to see a terrible second wave in places like Georgia. To miss the first wave can be excused by it blindsiding us. To catch a bad second wave will look awfully like carelessness.
Although there is no rigid definition of Occam's razor, I prefer 'choose the simpler explanation' rather than 'choose the one with less assumptions'. The first version works much better with statistical and machine learning models, where "simpler explanation" becomes "model with less parameters", but also applies to the Wuhan Bat Hypothesis above.
'Haven't you already read all these old books?'
President John Magufuli, whose government has already faced criticism over its handling of coronavirus outbreak and has previously asked people to pray the disease away, said the kits had "technical errors".
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-tanzania-testing-kits-questioned-after-goat-and-papaya-test-positive-11982864
The lockdown is working.
The economy would be in a worse state if there were no lockdown and Covid-19 had run riot.
https://twitter.com/DEADLINE/status/1257345002654621697?s=20
If there should be any change it would be to allow 3 consecutive terms not a comeback after a break.
Trump Officials Are Said to Press Spies to Link Virus and Wuhan Labs
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/30/us/politics/trump-administration-intelligence-coronavirus-china.html
Unless they are goo g to go for, well those economic policies didn't kill anyone whilst these ones totally are.
I love Shanghai. Up there with London, New York, Hong Kong, Beirut and Istanbul in my book. Shenzhen - at least the coastal resort bits around Yantian - is pretty nice too
It isn't a completely useless maxim, but it is a rough and ready rule of thumb, not a rule of logic which says that nothing is ever complicated or counterintuitive.
Others seem to be available.
UK coronavirus hospital death toll rises by 229 in lowest total in six weeks
Mirror Online
20 minutes ago
Coronavirus map LIVE: UK death toll rises by 288 - lowest daily total in seven weeks
Express
1 hour ago
UK coronavirus death toll hits 28,734 as 288 more people die but it’s the lowest rise for five weeks
The Sun
15 minutes ago
However even the best leaders should stop at 10 years, Blair leaving in 2007 was the best thing to happen to him, Thatcher should have gone in 1989 rather than being forced out in tears in 1990 by Heseltine' s leadership challenge
I go by this - if there is nothing wrong with the simple explanation it is very likely the explanation.
Don't know whose razor that is - or even if it is one - but I do find it usually works.
Unless it doesn't, of course, but that is not so often.
I read about 50 posts before @TOPPING said it was Friday afternoon and I realised something was wrong
Nothing has changed!
😆
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1256779250000158720?s=20
even for healthy people up to 80 its under 1000.
We may think we are in this together but the virus absolutely doesn't. Cruelly, it goes for those who are both aged and infirm.
Case 1: unlucky farmer sells infected bat to wet market and it somehow cross contaminates a shopper
Case 2: lab collects lots of specimens of infected bats near the wet market. An underpaid employee illicitly sells some (probably multiple over time) bats to the market. One of them cross contaminates a shopper
Basically case 1 you have to be really unlucky. Case 2 you have lots of shots on goal.
Given "patient zero" has never been identified that seems quite plausible.
It will take a bit of patience at this stage.