politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » We’re going through an odd period in the leader ratings – both

Casino_Royale said:

eadric said:

Pulpstar said:

Pulpstar said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Masks will be compulsory on public transport in Spain from Monday as the country moves to gradually relax its tough lockdown.

I hope the UK government have considered how they are going to get millions of masks every week for the public.

Surely you mean millions of masks every hour? Won't you need a clean one to go home and two more the next day? Or could it just be even more virtue signalling?

South Korea, you get two a week. Germany say by August should be able to produce about one a week for everybody.

Also depends what type of mask.

Germany one a week? Like underpants?

I've got *goes to count*

10 of these

That's a lovely mask. OOOOOOH

Is there such a thing as mask-lust? I fancy that mask. Grrrr

Welcome to Hazmat porn

Your fervour for masks makes William Glenn's views on the EU look like fence sitting.

https://mobile.twitter.com/hannahbayman/status/1253772386236858369

Mortimer said:

rcs1000 said:

Mortimer said:

eadric said:

Masks now mandatory on Spanish public transport


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52513516

I see no reason why we should be different

I got a train to work today. I'm not joking, I was the only person in the three carriages I could see.

You might have been wearing the mask wrong.

.

Poor effort, thats no Balotelli and the bib.

Mortimer said:

O/T - so, I've finished Gangs of London, Ozark, and Better Call Saul has finished for the season.

What on earth do I watch now? When does the new series of Billions start??!

Tomorrow.

noneoftheabove said:

Gallowgate said:

Ave_it said:

As a broad centre social democrat person I fully support the Boris approach and think that it is reasonable for the lockdown to continue broadly as current until end May.

But I think that Boris needs to set a clear timetable for a way out with steps and timescales a. to give people hope and b. save the economy.

The lockdown will not hold for another month. It’s completely unrealistic.

The aim wont be for it to hold fully, they want it to be eased ever so slightly to see what happens to R. So if 10% start to push the boundaries, thats completely in line with the govts likely objectives here. Of course they cant say that.

I personally don’t believe it is fair for the government to treat 10% leakage of the lockdown acceptable whilst it remains a criminal offence.

For example if the Government’s data demonstrates it is probably OK for people to visit their family members every now and then, then people should be allowed to do that without fear of criminal penalty. Rather than the Government simply assuming people will do this anyway.

Andy_JS said:

Ave_it said:

As a broad centre social democrat person I fully support the Boris approach and think that it is reasonable for the lockdown to continue broadly as current until end May.

But I think that Boris needs to set a clear timetable for a way out with steps and timescales a. to give people hope and b. save the economy.

The only solution remains herd immunity. Sweden are doing the right thing IMO.

Wait a year and it may be achieved with a vaccine, that is our policy aiui. Meanwhile we are banged up while the economy tanks.

Benpointer said:

state_go_away said:

Andy_JS said:

Ave_it said:

As a broad centre social democrat person I fully support the Boris approach and think that it is reasonable for the lockdown to continue broadly as current until end May.

But I think that Boris needs to set a clear timetable for a way out with steps and timescales a. to give people hope and b. save the economy.

The only solution remains herd immunity. Sweden are doing the right thing IMO.

Correct - We may not be too far away from getting it here though - many people have had this in the UK - we may as well ease the lockdown now as the NHS has capacity

"...many people have had this in the UK..."

Pillar 4 testing results (14,865 tested, 0 positive) suggests otherwise.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

This has been discussed earlier. The dash in the table does not signify zero, it means that the number of positives is as yet unknown. There is a similar dash for the number of people tested.

Mortimer said:

O/T - so, I've finished Gangs of London, Ozark, and Better Call Saul has finished for the season.

What on earth do I watch now? When does the new series of Billions start??!

There is an Australian series called Mystery Road. If you can find it, watch it. Actually I think the chronological order is there's a first series called something else, then a film, then Mystery Road. Excellently acted whodunit thriller.

Luckyguy1983 said:

Mortimer said:

O/T - so, I've finished Gangs of London, Ozark, and Better Call Saul has finished for the season.

What on earth do I watch now? When does the new series of Billions start??!

There is an Australian series called Mystery Road. If you can find it, watch it. Actually I think the chronological order is there's a first series called something else, then a film, then Mystery Road. Excellently acted whodunit thriller.

Thanks for the tip. Sounds good!

I just started watching Stumptown this afternoon. Its watchable!

Luckyguy1983 said:

Mortimer said:

O/T - so, I've finished Gangs of London, Ozark, and Better Call Saul has finished for the season.

What on earth do I watch now? When does the new series of Billions start??!

There is an Australian series called Mystery Road. If you can find it, watch it. Actually I think the chronological order is there's a first series called something else, then a film, then Mystery Road. Excellently acted whodunit thriller.

Chernobyl is outstanding.....

Thank goodness people are no longer talking about GoT...

Alistair said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Just f##k off with the "its ageist" bollocks. I don't care how many miles you ride on your bike a day, if you are over 70 and you get this, you are a pretty damn high chance of being in a lot of trouble. Its not ageist, its just fact.

And now an "independent" SAGE...what a stupid idea. They won't see the data, so how can they act as a peer review process. It screams of just playing politics.

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1256691490983739394?s=20

Why do people think over 70s are locked away? You are not automatically on the shielding list if you are over 70.

My Dads on the list and my Mums 73. She went over Tesco’s yesterday to get some shopping, phoned him to pick her up, and when they got home the govt van was outside with their food package!

Gallowgate said:

noneoftheabove said:

Gallowgate said:

Ave_it said:

As a broad centre social democrat person I fully support the Boris approach and think that it is reasonable for the lockdown to continue broadly as current until end May.

But I think that Boris needs to set a clear timetable for a way out with steps and timescales a. to give people hope and b. save the economy.

The lockdown will not hold for another month. It’s completely unrealistic.

The aim wont be for it to hold fully, they want it to be eased ever so slightly to see what happens to R. So if 10% start to push the boundaries, thats completely in line with the govts likely objectives here. Of course they cant say that.

I personally don’t believe it is fair for the government to treat 10% leakage of the lockdown acceptable whilst it remains a criminal offence.

For example if the Government’s data demonstrates it is probably OK for people to visit their family members every now and then, then people should be allowed to do that without fear of criminal penalty. Rather than the Government simply assuming people will do this anyway.

I dont disagree at all - some of the legal restrictions and govt interpretations/advice around them are clearly insufficient to deal with the wide range of scenarios individuals face. To be fair to the govt the enforcement of the lockdown in the UK has very much been thru consent and implied trust far more than fines and policing.

And as a society we are surprisingly used to breaking laws on a regular basis and knowing if and when its okay or not, speeding being the most obvious example, drinking under age another, not to mention singing happy birthday in a restaurant (possibly breaking copyright law).

geoffw said:

Benpointer said:

state_go_away said:

Andy_JS said:

Ave_it said:

As a broad centre social democrat person I fully support the Boris approach and think that it is reasonable for the lockdown to continue broadly as current until end May.

But I think that Boris needs to set a clear timetable for a way out with steps and timescales a. to give people hope and b. save the economy.

The only solution remains herd immunity. Sweden are doing the right thing IMO.

Correct - We may not be too far away from getting it here though - many people have had this in the UK - we may as well ease the lockdown now as the NHS has capacity

"...many people have had this in the UK..."

Pillar 4 testing results (14,865 tested, 0 positive) suggests otherwise.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

This has been discussed earlier. The dash in the table does not signify zero, it means that the number of positives is as yet unknown. There is a similar dash for the number of people tested.

Sorry, missed the earlier discussion. The dash for the number of people tested is explained on the website thus:

"For serology testing (Pillar 4), some protocols allow for samples to be tested repeatedly. Samples are anonymised prior to sending to the lab for testing, therefore the identification of individuals tested is not possible in the current reporting process, and so the number of people tested is not reported."

But no explanation as to why the number of positives is a dash (I accept it is probably not because it is zero). This is a key pieice of information so it's intriguing that HMG is not publishing it.

isam said:

Alistair said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Just f##k off with the "its ageist" bollocks. I don't care how many miles you ride on your bike a day, if you are over 70 and you get this, you are a pretty damn high chance of being in a lot of trouble. Its not ageist, its just fact.

And now an "independent" SAGE...what a stupid idea. They won't see the data, so how can they act as a peer review process. It screams of just playing politics.

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1256691490983739394?s=20

Why do people think over 70s are locked away? You are not automatically on the shielding list if you are over 70.

My Dads on the list and my Mums 73. She went over Tesco’s yesterday to get some shopping, phoned him to pick her up, and when they got home the govt van was outside with their food package!

Wait, if he's on the list she shouldn't be going out! And nor should he!

tyson said:

Mortimer said:

tyson said:

noneoftheabove said:

Mortimer said:

Ave_it said:

As a broad centre social democrat person I fully support the Boris approach and think that it is reasonable for the lockdown to continue broadly as current until end May.

But I think that Boris needs to set a clear timetable for a way out with steps and timescales a. to give people hope and b. save the economy.

Ave_it nails it yet again.

The only announcement next week will be along the lines of 'heres some minor changes, (e.g. tips and garden centres) but lets make one more 3 week push and start lifting at the beginning of June'.

The timetable for the easing can then be announced in the last week of May, and be in fact very slow...

That is what has been signposted so far.

This review will be get non Covid 19 healthcare ramped up and encourage businesses closed but currently not banned from operating to reopen if they can.

Next 3 weeks to convince the public, get testing ramped up further including test track and tracing teams and the new app in place, as well as learning from lockdown easings elsewhere.

So end of May it is for a gradual loosening of the lockdown.

When the Times headline today stated that people need to take their temperatures before going out...that was it for me....we really do have the most incompetent set of individuals in charge at this minute...

Just think...we are an Island...Boris could have locked down 2 weeks earlier and closed airports earlier still......he would now be walking on water...but he is a buffoon, and we have the worst set of people in charge in my lifetime.....

My favourite thing about this current government is that unlike every one since Maggie, they don't seem petrified about the papers or the broadcast media. Those in power have realised that the media influences and reflects Westminster outrage far more than the views of the county at large.

If Dom has done one thing for good government it is to not care what Piers Morgan, the Daily Mail or the Guardian says....

That's all fine comrade with the politics....

meanwhile in real life....we will have the worst death rate in Europe.....we are going to take the worst economic hit...we are going to be the slowest out of lock down and be in the worst shape to manage the recovery....

But you've got Dom...so good

Wrong, Belgium has the highest death rate at 670 deaths 1 m pop, followed by Spain537, Italy 475 & UK 414.

But hey, don't let facts get in the way of a good rant.

tyson said:

Mortimer said:

tyson said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Mortimer said:

O/T - so, I've finished Gangs of London, Ozark, and Better Call Saul has finished for the season.

What on earth do I watch now? When does the new series of Billions start??!

There is an Australian series called Mystery Road. If you can find it, watch it. Actually I think the chronological order is there's a first series called something else, then a film, then Mystery Road. Excellently acted whodunit thriller.

Chernobyl is outstanding.....

Thank goodness people are no longer talking about GoT...

Thanks.

I might have to try it again.

I feel asleep during the first episode last time I tried!

It is superb...and utterly compelling.....the best TV I have seen outside the Sopranos....

Chernobyl is brilliant, although sobering.

Halt and Catch Fire is fantastic as well. PC industry in 1980s.

I'm just finishing session 1.

Alistair said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Just f##k off with the "its ageist" bollocks. I don't care how many miles you ride on your bike a day, if you are over 70 and you get this, you are a pretty damn high chance of being in a lot of trouble. Its not ageist, its just fact.

And now an "independent" SAGE...what a stupid idea. They won't see the data, so how can they act as a peer review process. It screams of just playing politics.

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1256691490983739394?s=20

Why do people think over 70s are locked away? You are not automatically on the shielding list if you are over 70.

Hang on. That article says 1.8m people. All over 70s plus everyone else with a listed medical condition.
Surely there are many, many more than 1.8 m 70 + alone?

rottenborough said:

tyson said:

Mortimer said:

tyson said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Mortimer said:

O/T - so, I've finished Gangs of London, Ozark, and Better Call Saul has finished for the season.

What on earth do I watch now? When does the new series of Billions start??!

There is an Australian series called Mystery Road. If you can find it, watch it. Actually I think the chronological order is there's a first series called something else, then a film, then Mystery Road. Excellently acted whodunit thriller.

Chernobyl is outstanding.....

Thank goodness people are no longer talking about GoT...

Thanks.

I might have to try it again.

I feel asleep during the first episode last time I tried!

It is superb...and utterly compelling.....the best TV I have seen outside the Sopranos....

Chernobyl is brilliant, although sobering.

Halt and Catch Fire is fantastic as well. PC industry in 1980s.

I'm just finishing session 1.

Chernobyl.....The killing of the domestic dogs.....that honestly made me worried during the early stages of Covid 19 in case there was a link to dogs at home.....

Halt and Catch...where do you find it?

tyson said:

rottenborough said:

tyson said:

Mortimer said:

tyson said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Mortimer said:

O/T - so, I've finished Gangs of London, Ozark, and Better Call Saul has finished for the season.

What on earth do I watch now? When does the new series of Billions start??!

There is an Australian series called Mystery Road. If you can find it, watch it. Actually I think the chronological order is there's a first series called something else, then a film, then Mystery Road. Excellently acted whodunit thriller.

Chernobyl is outstanding.....

Thank goodness people are no longer talking about GoT...

Thanks.

I might have to try it again.

I feel asleep during the first episode last time I tried!

It is superb...and utterly compelling.....the best TV I have seen outside the Sopranos....

Chernobyl is brilliant, although sobering.

Halt and Catch Fire is fantastic as well. PC industry in 1980s.

I'm just finishing session 1.

Chernobyl.....The killing of the domestic dogs.....that honestly made me worried during the early stages of Covid 19 in case there was a link to dogs at home.....

Halt and Catch...where do you find it?

Amazon Prime have it in the UK I believe.

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/tobyhelm/status/1256634159960858624

I'll put that down as 'duh'. Inevitable consequence during a crisis, just a question of whether the degree is particularly severe.

tyson said:

Mortimer said:

tyson said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Mortimer said:

O/T - so, I've finished Gangs of London, Ozark, and Better Call Saul has finished for the season.

What on earth do I watch now? When does the new series of Billions start??!

There is an Australian series called Mystery Road. If you can find it, watch it. Actually I think the chronological order is there's a first series called something else, then a film, then Mystery Road. Excellently acted whodunit thriller.

Chernobyl is outstanding.....

Thank goodness people are no longer talking about GoT...

Thanks.

I might have to try it again.

I feel asleep during the first episode last time I tried!

It is superb...and utterly compelling.....the best TV I have seen outside the Sopranos....

Better I'd say. Some of the most compelling TV I've seen in years.

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1256678252887842819/photo/1

Check the right hand column. Virus on pages 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12 & 13.

They could have just written pages 2-13.

Alistair said:

isam said:

Alistair said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Just f##k off with the "its ageist" bollocks. I don't care how many miles you ride on your bike a day, if you are over 70 and you get this, you are a pretty damn high chance of being in a lot of trouble. Its not ageist, its just fact.

And now an "independent" SAGE...what a stupid idea. They won't see the data, so how can they act as a peer review process. It screams of just playing politics.

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1256691490983739394?s=20

Why do people think over 70s are locked away? You are not automatically on the shielding list if you are over 70.

My Dads on the list and my Mums 73. She went over Tesco’s yesterday to get some shopping, phoned him to pick her up, and when they got home the govt van was outside with their food package!

Wait, if he's on the list she shouldn't be going out! And nor should he!

Yes, I’ve reported the driver for not taking them with him

Telegraph journalists still desperate for a pint ?

One thing, a business an established business a Gov't is keeping closed by law they'll have to keep paying..

Labour still miles behind, but Starmer is getting approval ratings Corbyn never got. Only 5% of Labour supporters disapprove. Corbyn regularly was 50% and above on that.
https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/1256705081552130050?s=21

state_go_away said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Masks will be compulsory on public transport in Spain from Monday as the country moves to gradually relax its tough lockdown.

I hope the UK government have considered how they are going to get millions of masks every week for the public.

My NHS sister is sceptical about public masks in that she says they are fine if they are used right but 90% of the public will not use them right and could increase infection. Things like keep adjusting them then fingering surfaces , re-using them , leaving them on surfaces , even constantly lowering them to talk .She thinks far better off just not bothering

If R goes back above 1 after lockdown is eased then everything will be closed again and we'll be back in lockdown for another couple of months so you better hope your sister is right.

What the Proponents of ‘Natural’ Herd Immunity Don’t Say

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/01/opinion/sunday/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

"By the time the epidemic ended, a very large proportion of the population would have been infected — far above our expected herd immunity threshold of around two-thirds. These additional infections are what epidemiologists refer to as “overshoot.” "

I think this is new?

Anabobazina said:

The lockdown is on its last legs from what I can see. People are out enjoying the sunshine, lingering and shooting the breeze.

Dunno where you are, but the sun went down three hours ago in my part of the Midlands

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

Labour still miles behind, but Starmer is getting approval ratings Corbyn never got. Only 5% of Labour supporters disapprove. Corbyn regularly was 50% and above on that.
https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/1256705081552130050?s=21

He’s getting what Ed Miliband got when he started out, but Labour are doing worse in the polls now than they did then. Miliband’s rating went negative really quickly though, I don’t suppose there’s any particular reason why Starmer’s should do the same.

On Opinium, at least, Labour has had a bigger bounce since Starmer took over than when EdM did. But it’s from a lower base and the Tory lead is a lot bigger. It’s a very high mountain to climb.

rottenborough said:

dixiedean said:

Alistair said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Just f##k off with the "its ageist" bollocks. I don't care how many miles you ride on your bike a day, if you are over 70 and you get this, you are a pretty damn high chance of being in a lot of trouble. Its not ageist, its just fact.

And now an "independent" SAGE...what a stupid idea. They won't see the data, so how can they act as a peer review process. It screams of just playing politics.

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1256691490983739394?s=20

Why do people think over 70s are locked away? You are not automatically on the shielding list if you are over 70.

Hang on. That article says 1.8m people. All over 70s plus everyone else with a listed medical condition.
Surely there are many, many more than 1.8 m 70 + alone?

Sounds like rubbish.

1.8m are severely vulnerable (due to conditions) and have had a letter.

Over 70s have been told to shield at home in complete lockdown, but iirc they have not had a special letter and are not classed as "severely vulnerable" (other than the ones who do have a condition, if you see what I mean).

One thing painfully laid bare is the feeble nature of journalism. Across all platforms and from all political persuasions.
Basic fact checking absent and outright falsehoods abound

Andy_JS said:

https://twitter.com/johnrobertsFox/status/1256576858923073539

12 of 17 allegedly.

Andy_JS said:

https://twitter.com/johnrobertsFox/status/1256576858923073539

Why would you believe this prick?

alterego said:

Andy_JS said:

https://twitter.com/johnrobertsFox/status/1256576858923073539

Why would you believe this prick?

Prick? What's he done?

OllyT said:

Gallowgate said:

Ave_it said:

As a broad centre social democrat person I fully support the Boris approach and think that it is reasonable for the lockdown to continue broadly as current until end May.

But I think that Boris needs to set a clear timetable for a way out with steps and timescales a. to give people hope and b. save the economy.

The lockdown will not hold for another month. It’s completely unrealistic.

It may not hold in the sense that people will start meeting up and go out more but if the government so decides schools, pubs, gyms, restaurants, sports venues, concerts, cinemas will remain be closed. Sure you could defy the rules and go out but you wouldn't be able to do much.

If there is widespread disobedience than some of those miscreants will own shops, pubs, bars etc. Plod will be busy. Govt will relent.

noneoftheabove said:

another_richard said:

tyson said:

Flatlander said:

tyson said:

Flatlander said:

Pulpstar said:

Andy_JS said:

Ave_it said:

As a broad centre social democrat person I fully support the Boris approach and think that it is reasonable for the lockdown to continue broadly as current until end May.

But I think that Boris needs to set a clear timetable for a way out with steps and timescales a. to give people hope and b. save the economy.

The only solution remains herd immunity. Sweden are doing the right thing IMO.

No. You can keep the virus at a low level with track and trace like South Korea till a vaccine is out.

It seems that nobody has asked the goverment what their overall strategy now is. Are they still thinking everyone is going to get this before a vaccine is available (as originally stated, both here and elsewhere), or are we waiting it out?

I suppose that if they are wanting to wait it out then keeping a lid on it will be a bit easier now some proportion of the population (and likely those most likely to spread it, particularly in the NHS) already have immunity.

The Govt has not got a strategy...it never had a strategy....it is full of people who only have ever done politics....and comprises only those who have sworn allegiance to the alter of Brexit....

My utter contempt for this Govt is only bettered by the usual bunch of pbCOM Tories who are utterly fucking clueless......

It was originally stated by the government scientists that they expected almost everyone to get this, and the only stated strategy was to make sure that health services coped by managing the spread. Even Merkel said this.

That was a reasonable plan at the time and I don't think it is fair to say that the government never had one. It was all written down in the published epidemic plan (although that was for flu, admittedly). This plan talks about tracing the first 100 cases to give an idea of how fast the spread is, and then stopping that once it becomes established in the community and locking down at an appropriate point. That's exactly what happened.

Now we seem to have a fast track vaccine that might actually work, and the fatality rate does seem to be higher than is "acceptable".

Have they pivoted to suppress and wait? It would be nice to know.

I suppose if there was any admission that we are still running the "herd immunity" plan then lockdown would break down much more quickly, so there would be no hurry to say so.

I fail to see what any of this has to do with Brexit, though.

What I don't get is how German scientists took a different approach....

And now...German scientists are saying wear face masks......

I want those German scientists.....they seem to know better...

The Brexit comment...is that if you only choose people who swear at the alter of Brexit...ideologues (by definition fruitcakes).....then you exclude the sensible thinking people at a time when we need them most....

The problem with your theory is that Brexit ideology would have said 'control entry into the UK'.

Whereas we instead followed the policy of the globalist nutjobs and let the virus flood in.

And the problem with that is for closing our borders to have been effective it would have had to have been done early Feb and there were no great calls for this until middle of March, by which time the percentage of arrivals with Covid19 was lower than the percentage of people already here who had it.

And if it was done early Feb please explain how we wouldnt have to do this every few years for the likes of SARS, MERS, Zika, Swine Flu etc or is there a magic crystal ball?

It didn't have to be done early in February, doing it in March would have had an effect.

But closing the borders wasn't necessary - making people have a 7 day quarantine would have had an effect.

And that was a lot easier and less costly to do than shutting down half the country.

dixiedean said:

rottenborough said:

dixiedean said:

Alistair said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Just f##k off with the "its ageist" bollocks. I don't care how many miles you ride on your bike a day, if you are over 70 and you get this, you are a pretty damn high chance of being in a lot of trouble. Its not ageist, its just fact.

And now an "independent" SAGE...what a stupid idea. They won't see the data, so how can they act as a peer review process. It screams of just playing politics.

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1256691490983739394?s=20

Why do people think over 70s are locked away? You are not automatically on the shielding list if you are over 70.

Hang on. That article says 1.8m people. All over 70s plus everyone else with a listed medical condition.
Surely there are many, many more than 1.8 m 70 + alone?

Sounds like rubbish.

1.8m are severely vulnerable (due to conditions) and have had a letter.

Over 70s have been told to shield at home in complete lockdown, but iirc they have not had a special letter and are not classed as "severely vulnerable" (other than the ones who do have a condition, if you see what I mean).

One thing painfully laid bare is the feeble nature of journalism. Across all platforms and from all political persuasions.
Basic fact checking absent and outright falsehoods abound

The Sunday Times has cocked up its reporting of the degrees of severity and the numbers. Those throwing hand grenades at the media for being crap and lazy are dead right on lack of attention to the detail, without needing to get into the out and out fictions a lot of them are writing. Those making too broad comparisons with Trump supporters need to smell some coffee.

The 1.8m is very vulnerables; I think the term is "shielded", which is things like organ transplants, and patients who have had their immune systems weakened or destroyed for the treatment to proceed, or as part of the continuing management. I think even this contains several categories.

There are categories of "please stay at home" beyond that, who have been advised to socially isolate for 12 weeks (starting in mid-March). I am technically one of those, having Type I Diabetes, but I would need another conditions (eg severe active asthma) to be classed as "vulnerable".

So I have no offers of govt help or special access to supermarket slots, which I am not pursuing though I may be able to force it, as I have other arrangements in place, and the website would not let me register as such unless I lied.

I had a 'get in touch if you need help as we have identified you as potentially vulnerable' note from the Local Authority in mid-late April, so someone has been transferring data around, or they are cross-referencing creatively from their list of users of the clinical waste service, which is the only place they have my Type I Diabetes listed.

There has always been confusion about "listed conditions" from teh start eg diabetes is listed in the legislation, but not on the Govt "vulnerable registration" website.

I think normal healthy over-70s (would that be Mike as I think he has no conditions and normally perambulates Luton on his Ordinary?) are in an analgous category to me, but for old age extra vulnerabiility rather than Type I D.

Starmer bounce?

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1256713386353704961?s=20

another_richard said:

noneoftheabove said:

another_richard said:

tyson said:

Flatlander said:

tyson said:

Flatlander said:

Pulpstar said:

Andy_JS said:

Ave_it said:

As a broad centre social democrat person I fully support the Boris approach and think that it is reasonable for the lockdown to continue broadly as current until end May.

But I think that Boris needs to set a clear timetable for a way out with steps and timescales a. to give people hope and b. save the economy.

The only solution remains herd immunity. Sweden are doing the right thing IMO.

No. You can keep the virus at a low level with track and trace like South Korea till a vaccine is out.

It seems that nobody has asked the goverment what their overall strategy now is. Are they still thinking everyone is going to get this before a vaccine is available (as originally stated, both here and elsewhere), or are we waiting it out?

I suppose that if they are wanting to wait it out then keeping a lid on it will be a bit easier now some proportion of the population (and likely those most likely to spread it, particularly in the NHS) already have immunity.

The Govt has not got a strategy...it never had a strategy....it is full of people who only have ever done politics....and comprises only those who have sworn allegiance to the alter of Brexit....

My utter contempt for this Govt is only bettered by the usual bunch of pbCOM Tories who are utterly fucking clueless......

It was originally stated by the government scientists that they expected almost everyone to get this, and the only stated strategy was to make sure that health services coped by managing the spread. Even Merkel said this.

That was a reasonable plan at the time and I don't think it is fair to say that the government never had one. It was all written down in the published epidemic plan (although that was for flu, admittedly). This plan talks about tracing the first 100 cases to give an idea of how fast the spread is, and then stopping that once it becomes established in the community and locking down at an appropriate point. That's exactly what happened.

Now we seem to have a fast track vaccine that might actually work, and the fatality rate does seem to be higher than is "acceptable".

Have they pivoted to suppress and wait? It would be nice to know.

I suppose if there was any admission that we are still running the "herd immunity" plan then lockdown would break down much more quickly, so there would be no hurry to say so.

I fail to see what any of this has to do with Brexit, though.

What I don't get is how German scientists took a different approach....

And now...German scientists are saying wear face masks......

I want those German scientists.....they seem to know better...

The Brexit comment...is that if you only choose people who swear at the alter of Brexit...ideologues (by definition fruitcakes).....then you exclude the sensible thinking people at a time when we need them most....

The problem with your theory is that Brexit ideology would have said 'control entry into the UK'.

Whereas we instead followed the policy of the globalist nutjobs and let the virus flood in.

And the problem with that is for closing our borders to have been effective it would have had to have been done early Feb and there were no great calls for this until middle of March, by which time the percentage of arrivals with Covid19 was lower than the percentage of people already here who had it.

And if it was done early Feb please explain how we wouldnt have to do this every few years for the likes of SARS, MERS, Zika, Swine Flu etc or is there a magic crystal ball?

It didn't have to be done early in February, doing it in March would have had an effect.

But closing the borders wasn't necessary - making people have a 7 day quarantine would have had an effect.

And that was a lot easier and less costly to do than shutting down half the country.

Passenger flights were down by 95% by the end of March
If 2% of 65m have it in the UK then adding 1% of tens of thousands a day into the mix (and exporting a similar number of 2% ers) doesnt cost at all.

The 2% and 1% have been made up, but given the statistics since, it is very likely there were more cases in the UK than in arrivals to the UK. Net we were probably exporting the problem elsewhere by mid March.

alterego said:

OllyT said:

Gallowgate said:

Ave_it said:

As a broad centre social democrat person I fully support the Boris approach and think that it is reasonable for the lockdown to continue broadly as current until end May.

But I think that Boris needs to set a clear timetable for a way out with steps and timescales a. to give people hope and b. save the economy.

The lockdown will not hold for another month. It’s completely unrealistic.

It may not hold in the sense that people will start meeting up and go out more but if the government so decides schools, pubs, gyms, restaurants, sports venues, concerts, cinemas will remain be closed. Sure you could defy the rules and go out but you wouldn't be able to do much.

If there is widespread disobedience than some of those miscreants will own shops, pubs, bars etc. Plod will be busy. Govt will relent.

I very much doubt a Conservative government is going to be seen to give in to mob rule particularly when the polls are still indicating strong support for the lockdown. Any pub foolish enough to flout the law will simply have its license revoked, it's not difficult. There was a a story in the paper today about a hairdresser illegally opening up in California, I believe. He got no customers.

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:

https://twitter.com/johnrobertsFox/status/1256576858923073539

Here's the thing, this would be a bloody awful weapon.

First, it targets the most vulnerable in society, rather than the able bodied.
Second, it doesn't mutate much, so the country that created it would be just as likely to end up with it as where it was released.

So, this isn't a designed virus. Although it might be one that was being studied.

But again, this is a coronavirus that had an animal host at sometime. Occam's razor time: is it more likely that it went from animal host to human (via a "wet" market or a bite), or that it somehow infected someone from a lab?

I think the former is about 100x more likely than the latter. I mean the latter's certainly possible, but I've been in labs before. People are pretty unlikely to get themselves infected with things, and if they do, they don't get to go home and infect their friends.

Novel though this coronavirus is, its not that novel. It's very like SARS and MERS. The only difference is that - unlike those two - it reached critical mass outside China.

It seems to have impacted Western cities more than the rest of the world so not sure it is a terrible weapon for particular groups - not that I think it is/was a man-made weapon at all.

If it was we will never know anyway as different groups will spin it however, but it seems very unlikely to me.

eadric said:

Omnium said:

eadric said:

Omnium said:

fox327 said:

alterego said:

eek said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/tobyhelm/status/1256634159960858624

Surely the two statements contradict each other as you would expect any disapproval of the handling to correspond with a desire to return to things as they were before pre lockdown.

You did notice he works for the Observer?

I went round my local Morrison's today. It was as crowded as on a normal day. I am sitting here listening to loud music from nearby flats, sometimes I can hear people doing loud exercises. It used to be very quiet all the time. Sure some people don't want the lockdown to end and others do. The government will need to have the wisdom of Solomon to decide what to do.

I'm puzzled as to where all the cars are. Obviously there are almost none on the streets, but what baffles me is that lots of resident's parking seems free too. In London this is. Somewhere there must be more cars than usual!

People being noisy is a great crime. I'm so happy and lucky that my neighbours are quiet.

"Somewhere there must be more cars than usual"

Penarth, Wales

Lots and lots?

I live in Maida Vale, and there is a noticeable amount of extra space - no double parking on a sunday morning! In Bayswater (just down the road) there are whole bays that are almost empty.

I guess we'll have to forgive you for your parked car as it allows you to report!

You will. As I am now officially reporting on coronavirus I am apparently an essential worker! Who knew.

I exult in my status alongside nurses and firemen

'You' are?

Clap for Eadric.

noneoftheabove said:

another_richard said:

noneoftheabove said:

another_richard said:

tyson said:

Flatlander said:

tyson said:

Flatlander said:

Pulpstar said:

Andy_JS said:

Ave_it said:

As a broad centre social democrat person I fully support the Boris approach and think that it is reasonable for the lockdown to continue broadly as current until end May.

But I think that Boris needs to set a clear timetable for a way out with steps and timescales a. to give people hope and b. save the economy.

The only solution remains herd immunity. Sweden are doing the right thing IMO.

No. You can keep the virus at a low level with track and trace like South Korea till a vaccine is out.

It seems that nobody has asked the goverment what their overall strategy now is. Are they still thinking everyone is going to get this before a vaccine is available (as originally stated, both here and elsewhere), or are we waiting it out?

I suppose that if they are wanting to wait it out then keeping a lid on it will be a bit easier now some proportion of the population (and likely those most likely to spread it, particularly in the NHS) already have immunity.

The Govt has not got a strategy...it never had a strategy....it is full of people who only have ever done politics....and comprises only those who have sworn allegiance to the alter of Brexit....

My utter contempt for this Govt is only bettered by the usual bunch of pbCOM Tories who are utterly fucking clueless......

It was originally stated by the government scientists that they expected almost everyone to get this, and the only stated strategy was to make sure that health services coped by managing the spread. Even Merkel said this.

That was a reasonable plan at the time and I don't think it is fair to say that the government never had one. It was all written down in the published epidemic plan (although that was for flu, admittedly). This plan talks about tracing the first 100 cases to give an idea of how fast the spread is, and then stopping that once it becomes established in the community and locking down at an appropriate point. That's exactly what happened.

Now we seem to have a fast track vaccine that might actually work, and the fatality rate does seem to be higher than is "acceptable".

Have they pivoted to suppress and wait? It would be nice to know.

I suppose if there was any admission that we are still running the "herd immunity" plan then lockdown would break down much more quickly, so there would be no hurry to say so.

I fail to see what any of this has to do with Brexit, though.

What I don't get is how German scientists took a different approach....

And now...German scientists are saying wear face masks......

I want those German scientists.....they seem to know better...

The Brexit comment...is that if you only choose people who swear at the alter of Brexit...ideologues (by definition fruitcakes).....then you exclude the sensible thinking people at a time when we need them most....

The problem with your theory is that Brexit ideology would have said 'control entry into the UK'.

Whereas we instead followed the policy of the globalist nutjobs and let the virus flood in.

And the problem with that is for closing our borders to have been effective it would have had to have been done early Feb and there were no great calls for this until middle of March, by which time the percentage of arrivals with Covid19 was lower than the percentage of people already here who had it.

And if it was done early Feb please explain how we wouldnt have to do this every few years for the likes of SARS, MERS, Zika, Swine Flu etc or is there a magic crystal ball?

It didn't have to be done early in February, doing it in March would have had an effect.

But closing the borders wasn't necessary - making people have a 7 day quarantine would have had an effect.

And that was a lot easier and less costly to do than shutting down half the country.

Passenger flights were down by 95% by the end of March
If 2% of 65m have it in the UK then adding 1% of tens of thousands a day into the mix (and exporting a similar number of 2% ers) doesnt cost at all.

The 2% and 1% have been made up, but given the statistics since, it is very likely there were more cases in the UK than in arrivals to the UK. Net we were probably exporting the problem elsewhere by mid March.

So at the beginning of March we were importing the virus as were in late February, mid February and early February.

At any period of which of which the government could have introduced some basic restrictions.

BTW how many of the people leaving the UK had to go into quarantine in the countries they went to ?

Were those countries wrong to have restrictions on entry ?

OllyT said:

alterego said:

OllyT said:

Gallowgate said:

Ave_it said:

As a broad centre social democrat person I fully support the Boris approach and think that it is reasonable for the lockdown to continue broadly as current until end May.

But I think that Boris needs to set a clear timetable for a way out with steps and timescales a. to give people hope and b. save the economy.

The lockdown will not hold for another month. It’s completely unrealistic.

It may not hold in the sense that people will start meeting up and go out more but if the government so decides schools, pubs, gyms, restaurants, sports venues, concerts, cinemas will remain be closed. Sure you could defy the rules and go out but you wouldn't be able to do much.

If there is widespread disobedience than some of those miscreants will own shops, pubs, bars etc. Plod will be busy. Govt will relent.

I very much doubt a Conservative government is going to be seen to give in to mob rule particularly when the polls are still indicating strong support for the lockdown. Any pub foolish enough to flout the law will simply have its license revoked, it's not difficult. There was a a story in the paper today about a hairdresser illegally opening up in California, I believe. He got no customers.

Not sure how we got to "mob" but even so, it votes and, in the scenario under discussion, has previously been of good reputation.

dixiedean said:

SouthamObserver said:

Labour still miles behind, but Starmer is getting approval ratings Corbyn never got. Only 5% of Labour supporters disapprove. Corbyn regularly was 50% and above on that.
https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/1256705081552130050?s=21

An interesting number in there is Lib Dems. Of course there are fewer of them than in the past. And therefore probably more committed in their LibDemory.
But they heavily prefer Starmer.
Which is, at least, a start.

We have two party politics for now.

LibDems are an irrelevence nationally. Locally, they can still point at potholes.

another_richard said:

noneoftheabove said:

another_richard said:

noneoftheabove said:

another_richard said:

tyson said:

Flatlander said:

tyson said:

Flatlander said:

Pulpstar said:

Andy_JS said:

Ave_it said:

As a broad centre social democrat person I fully support the Boris approach and think that it is reasonable for the lockdown to continue broadly as current until end May.

But I think that Boris needs to set a clear timetable for a way out with steps and timescales a. to give people hope and b. save the economy.

The only solution remains herd immunity. Sweden are doing the right thing IMO.

No. You can keep the virus at a low level with track and trace like South Korea till a vaccine is out.

It seems that nobody has asked the goverment what their overall strategy now is. Are they still thinking everyone is going to get this before a vaccine is available (as originally stated, both here and elsewhere), or are we waiting it out?

I suppose that if they are wanting to wait it out then keeping a lid on it will be a bit easier now some proportion of the population (and likely those most likely to spread it, particularly in the NHS) already have immunity.

The Govt has not got a strategy...it never had a strategy....it is full of people who only have ever done politics....and comprises only those who have sworn allegiance to the alter of Brexit....

My utter contempt for this Govt is only bettered by the usual bunch of pbCOM Tories who are utterly fucking clueless......

It was originally stated by the government scientists that they expected almost everyone to get this, and the only stated strategy was to make sure that health services coped by managing the spread. Even Merkel said this.

That was a reasonable plan at the time and I don't think it is fair to say that the government never had one. It was all written down in the published epidemic plan (although that was for flu, admittedly). This plan talks about tracing the first 100 cases to give an idea of how fast the spread is, and then stopping that once it becomes established in the community and locking down at an appropriate point. That's exactly what happened.

Now we seem to have a fast track vaccine that might actually work, and the fatality rate does seem to be higher than is "acceptable".

Have they pivoted to suppress and wait? It would be nice to know.

I suppose if there was any admission that we are still running the "herd immunity" plan then lockdown would break down much more quickly, so there would be no hurry to say so.

I fail to see what any of this has to do with Brexit, though.

What I don't get is how German scientists took a different approach....

And now...German scientists are saying wear face masks......

I want those German scientists.....they seem to know better...

The Brexit comment...is that if you only choose people who swear at the alter of Brexit...ideologues (by definition fruitcakes).....then you exclude the sensible thinking people at a time when we need them most....

The problem with your theory is that Brexit ideology would have said 'control entry into the UK'.

Whereas we instead followed the policy of the globalist nutjobs and let the virus flood in.

And the problem with that is for closing our borders to have been effective it would have had to have been done early Feb and there were no great calls for this until middle of March, by which time the percentage of arrivals with Covid19 was lower than the percentage of people already here who had it.

And if it was done early Feb please explain how we wouldnt have to do this every few years for the likes of SARS, MERS, Zika, Swine Flu etc or is there a magic crystal ball?

It didn't have to be done early in February, doing it in March would have had an effect.

But closing the borders wasn't necessary - making people have a 7 day quarantine would have had an effect.

And that was a lot easier and less costly to do than shutting down half the country.

Passenger flights were down by 95% by the end of March
If 2% of 65m have it in the UK then adding 1% of tens of thousands a day into the mix (and exporting a similar number of 2% ers) doesnt cost at all.

The 2% and 1% have been made up, but given the statistics since, it is very likely there were more cases in the UK than in arrivals to the UK. Net we were probably exporting the problem elsewhere by mid March.

BTW how many of the people leaving the UK had to go into quarantine in the countries they went to ?

Many countries simply weren't letting people from the UK in.

MarqueeMark said:

dixiedean said:

SouthamObserver said:

Labour still miles behind, but Starmer is getting approval ratings Corbyn never got. Only 5% of Labour supporters disapprove. Corbyn regularly was 50% and above on that.
https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/1256705081552130050?s=21

An interesting number in there is Lib Dems. Of course there are fewer of them than in the past. And therefore probably more committed in their LibDemory.
But they heavily prefer Starmer.
Which is, at least, a start.

We have two party politics for now.

LibDems are an irrelevence nationally. Locally, they can still point at potholes.

Indeed. I don't disagree at aĺl Nevertheless having the "non-aligned" favouring.tour Party rather than the alternative is handy.If nowhere near decisive. As yet.

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:

https://twitter.com/johnrobertsFox/status/1256576858923073539

Here's the thing, this would be a bloody awful weapon.

First, it targets the most vulnerable in society, rather than the able bodied.
Second, it doesn't mutate much, so the country that created it would be just as likely to end up with it as where it was released.

So, this isn't a designed virus. Although it might be one that was being studied.

But again, this is a coronavirus that had an animal host at sometime. Occam's razor time: is it more likely that it went from animal host to human (via a "wet" market or a bite), or that it somehow infected someone from a lab?

I think the former is about 100x more likely than the latter. I mean the latter's certainly possible, but I've been in labs before. People are pretty unlikely to get themselves infected with things, and if they do, they don't get to go home and infect their friends.

Novel though this coronavirus is, its not that novel. It's very like SARS and MERS. The only difference is that - unlike those two - it reached critical mass outside China.

I don't think anyone serious is claiming this virus was a manufactured weapon, but a natural virus that was being studied and tested on animals is certainly more plausible.

Have you been in a Chinese biolab before? Given the general (lack of) hygiene standards I really wouldn't be surprised if stupid corner cutting had occurred.

rottenborough said:

Theuniondivvie said:

eadric said:

Omnium said:

eadric said:

Omnium said:

fox327 said:

alterego said:

eek said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/tobyhelm/status/1256634159960858624

Surely the two statements contradict each other as you would expect any disapproval of the handling to correspond with a desire to return to things as they were before pre lockdown.

You did notice he works for the Observer?

I went round my local Morrison's today. It was as crowded as on a normal day. I am sitting here listening to loud music from nearby flats, sometimes I can hear people doing loud exercises. It used to be very quiet all the time. Sure some people don't want the lockdown to end and others do. The government will need to have the wisdom of Solomon to decide what to do.

I'm puzzled as to where all the cars are. Obviously there are almost none on the streets, but what baffles me is that lots of resident's parking seems free too. In London this is. Somewhere there must be more cars than usual!

People being noisy is a great crime. I'm so happy and lucky that my neighbours are quiet.

"Somewhere there must be more cars than usual"

Penarth, Wales

Lots and lots?

I live in Maida Vale, and there is a noticeable amount of extra space - no double parking on a sunday morning! In Bayswater (just down the road) there are whole bays that are almost empty.

I guess we'll have to forgive you for your parked car as it allows you to report!

You will. As I am now officially reporting on coronavirus I am apparently an essential worker! Who knew.

I exult in my status alongside nurses and firemen

'You' are?

Clap for Eadric.

"As I am now officially reporting on coronavirus"

That report in full:

It's fucking terrible and millions will die, but I got three N95 masks before anyone else.

....and then legged it to Wales.

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:

https://twitter.com/johnrobertsFox/status/1256576858923073539

Here's the thing, this would be a bloody awful weapon.

First, it targets the most vulnerable in society, rather than the able bodied.
Second, it doesn't mutate much, so the country that created it would be just as likely to end up with it as where it was released.

So, this isn't a designed virus. Although it might be one that was being studied.

But again, this is a coronavirus that had an animal host at sometime. Occam's razor time: is it more likely that it went from animal host to human (via a "wet" market or a bite), or that it somehow infected someone from a lab?

I think the former is about 100x more likely than the latter. I mean the latter's certainly possible, but I've been in labs before. People are pretty unlikely to get themselves infected with things, and if they do, they don't get to go home and infect their friends.

Novel though this coronavirus is, its not that novel. It's very like SARS and MERS. The only difference is that - unlike those two - it reached critical mass outside China.

The other thing I don't get about this is, do labs have huge stocks of *unknown* viruses sitting there? How did they get hold of it if it hadn't jumped to humans yet? Does somebody go out and sample all the vaguely sick-looking bats?

Edit: See the next post by TimT for the answer

brokenwheel said:

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:

https://twitter.com/johnrobertsFox/status/1256576858923073539

Here's the thing, this would be a bloody awful weapon.

First, it targets the most vulnerable in society, rather than the able bodied.
Second, it doesn't mutate much, so the country that created it would be just as likely to end up with it as where it was released.

So, this isn't a designed virus. Although it might be one that was being studied.

But again, this is a coronavirus that had an animal host at sometime. Occam's razor time: is it more likely that it went from animal host to human (via a "wet" market or a bite), or that it somehow infected someone from a lab?

I think the former is about 100x more likely than the latter. I mean the latter's certainly possible, but I've been in labs before. People are pretty unlikely to get themselves infected with things, and if they do, they don't get to go home and infect their friends.

Novel though this coronavirus is, its not that novel. It's very like SARS and MERS. The only difference is that - unlike those two - it reached critical mass outside China.

I don't think anyone serious is claiming this virus was a manufactured weapon, but a natural virus that was being studied and tested on animals is certainly more plausible.

Have you been in a Chinese biolab before? Given the general (lack of) hygiene standards I really wouldn't be surprised if stupid corner cutting had occurred.

You will see that I expressed concerns about safety culture back in 2017 (14th and last paras)

https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487