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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370

    I'm not sure history is going to look favourably on that picture of President Xi and David Cameron having a pint together in his local.

    That'll be viewed as very Tea with Mussolini one day.

    Assume ole Brenda gets the standard Ceaușescu pardon.

    'I was only obeying orders given by my government.'
    Well, of course.

    She doesn't make policy. She does what the Government ask.
    Margaret Thatcher was all for constructive engagement with regimes that she was fundamentally opposed to. What should Cameron have done, put President Xi in the stocks and have people through mouldy vegetables at him?
    Had anyone holding up signs that said anything vaguely offensive to Xi arrested.

    It's what Blair did when the Chinese leader at the time visited...
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837
    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Masks will be compulsory on public transport in Spain from Monday as the country moves to gradually relax its tough lockdown.

    I hope the UK government have considered how they are going to get millions of masks every week for the public.

    My NHS sister is sceptical about public masks in that she says they are fine if they are used right but 90% of the public will not use them right and could increase infection. Things like keep adjusting them then fingering surfaces , re-using them , leaving them on surfaces , even constantly lowering them to talk .She thinks far better off just not bothering
    You see all those already with the people who are actually keen on wearing them, imagine what it will be like with those who think its a waste of time but are forced to.....
    For FUCK'S SAKE

    Masks and face coverings have some basic, meagre utility in preventing YOU THE WEARER being infected

    However, almost any face covering, however stupid you are, is notably effective in preventing YOU THE WEARER infecting others, with your breathing, talking, panting, sneezing and coughing

    That is the point. You wear them to protect OTHERS; they wear them to protect YOU

    Asian societies have passed this basic IQ test. It seems we are determined to fail
    Ill listen to the WHO and UK govt, if either say I should/need to wear them in certain circumstances I will.

    Currently they advise me not to, and you advise me to wear them.
    Christ. OK. Well then wait just a week because the British government is about to change its tune
    I wouldnt be surprised if you are right, although the PM said it was to keep up the publics morale rather than health reasons. The only place that could possibly be relevant to wear one now for me is the supermarket, and that is 10 minutes once every 10 days so quite unlikely to make much difference to the world or futute East Asian hegemony despite your strong views.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370

    I'm not sure history is going to look favourably on that picture of President Xi and David Cameron having a pint together in his local.

    That'll be viewed as very Tea with Mussolini one day.

    Assume ole Brenda gets the standard Ceaușescu pardon.

    'I was only obeying orders given by my government.'
    Well, of course.

    She doesn't make policy. She does what the Government ask.
    Ah the 'I was only following orders' line as loved by collaborators and assistants of true evil.
    I think shaking hands with nasty people and giving them bits of tin is somewhat different to carrying out orders to murder people. But that's just me.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited May 2020
    Omnium said:

    FF43 said:

    ..

    Omnium said:

    FF43 said:

    Omnium said:

    glw said:

    NYC overall: 19.9% positive for antibodies.

    Bronx: 27.6%
    Brooklyn: 19.2%
    Manhattan: 17.3%
    Queens: 18.4%
    Staten Island: 19.2%

    IFR of 0.8% on those current figures.

    Taking that IFR and applying it to the UK with current figures would suggest that 3.5 million have been infected across the country, and over 600,000 in London alone. Officially it's about 182,000 across the country. Now admittedly there are deaths to come, and different circumstances and populations between New York City and London and the UK, but a rough estimate of there being an order of magnitude more cases than is official does seem highly likely.
    Very good news if such high figures are correct. I actually think that the truth may be higher still, but just a hunch.

    If only one could trust the test!

    (Personally I had some sort of bug some weeks ago - it wasn't nice, but wasn't that bad either. I live in fairly central London)
    Why is it good news? It means this epidemic has seen less than one tenth of expected deaths in London before it runs its course and a lot less than one tenth of deaths elsewhere.
    I think you answered your own question.

    If everybody's had it and mostly recovered it's great.
    Less one tenth have had it. We're looking at a potential death toll in the hundreds of thousands in the UK, on a par with the whole of WW2. Doesn't that bother you?
    I want as many people as possible to have HAD the bug. There will be some partial immunity from having it and even if there isn't these people have demonstrated that they can deal with it.

    I don't get your point unfortunately. We're talking very small fractions of the population having had the disease.

    On a slightly related note, my Covid objective is NOT to contribute to herd immunity. A vaccine would be great, otherwise my aim is to stay well clear. I'm hardly alone in this objective.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370

    I'm not sure history is going to look favourably on that picture of President Xi and David Cameron having a pint together in his local.

    That'll be viewed as very Tea with Mussolini one day.

    Assume ole Brenda gets the standard Ceaușescu pardon.

    'I was only obeying orders given by my government.'
    She’s met with some truly nasty dudes, Bob Mugabe, Trump, and Prince Andrew.

    A gypsy must have put a curse on Brenda.

    I am trying to imagine what the Guardian would have said if Brenda had nodded and Prince Philip given Comrade Bob a double tap with the old Webley.

    Can't imagine that headline would have been supportive.

    Trump, just maybe....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,608

    Those missing sport, i have to say the iRacing is really quite good...in fact probably better than the real thing as all these pro drivers appear to push it too hard and cause massive pile-ups.

    It's kinda easy though when you know you're not really going to die....
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837
    eadric said:

    Omnium said:

    eadric said:

    Omnium said:

    fox327 said:


    alterego said:

    eek said:

    Surely the two statements contradict each other as you would expect any disapproval of the handling to correspond with a desire to return to things as they were before pre lockdown.

    You did notice he works for the Observer?
    I went round my local Morrison's today. It was as crowded as on a normal day. I am sitting here listening to loud music from nearby flats, sometimes I can hear people doing loud exercises. It used to be very quiet all the time. Sure some people don't want the lockdown to end and others do. The government will need to have the wisdom of Solomon to decide what to do.
    I'm puzzled as to where all the cars are. Obviously there are almost none on the streets, but what baffles me is that lots of resident's parking seems free too. In London this is. Somewhere there must be more cars than usual!

    People being noisy is a great crime. I'm so happy and lucky that my neighbours are quiet.
    "Somewhere there must be more cars than usual"

    Penarth, Wales
    Lots and lots?

    I live in Maida Vale, and there is a noticeable amount of extra space - no double parking on a sunday morning! In Bayswater (just down the road) there are whole bays that are almost empty.

    I guess we'll have to forgive you for your parked car as it allows you to report!
    You will. As I am now officially reporting on coronavirus I am apparently an essential worker! Who knew.

    I exult in my status alongside nurses and firemen
    Have you seen Contagion? You seem a natural for the role of Jude Law?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,675

    I'm not sure history is going to look favourably on that picture of President Xi and David Cameron having a pint together in his local.

    That'll be viewed as very Tea with Mussolini one day.

    Assume ole Brenda gets the standard Ceaușescu pardon.

    'I was only obeying orders given by my government.'
    Well, of course.

    She doesn't make policy. She does what the Government ask.
    Ah the 'I was only following orders' line as loved by collaborators and assistants of true evil.
    I think shaking hands with nasty people and giving them bits of tin is somewhat different to carrying out orders to murder people. But that's just me.
    She regularly meets despots and mass murderers, she should take a stand, as it stands she gives them legitimacy.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370

    I'm not sure history is going to look favourably on that picture of President Xi and David Cameron having a pint together in his local.

    That'll be viewed as very Tea with Mussolini one day.

    Assume ole Brenda gets the standard Ceaușescu pardon.

    'I was only obeying orders given by my government.'
    Well, of course.

    She doesn't make policy. She does what the Government ask.
    Ah the 'I was only following orders' line as loved by collaborators and assistants of true evil.
    I think shaking hands with nasty people and giving them bits of tin is somewhat different to carrying out orders to murder people. But that's just me.
    She regularly meets despots and mass murderers, she should take a stand, as it stands she gives them legitimacy.
    Why - are you say the despots and mass murders are somehow less than wonderful people? How colonial minded.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    eadric said:

    Omnium said:

    eadric said:

    Omnium said:

    fox327 said:


    alterego said:

    eek said:

    Surely the two statements contradict each other as you would expect any disapproval of the handling to correspond with a desire to return to things as they were before pre lockdown.

    You did notice he works for the Observer?
    I went round my local Morrison's today. It was as crowded as on a normal day. I am sitting here listening to loud music from nearby flats, sometimes I can hear people doing loud exercises. It used to be very quiet all the time. Sure some people don't want the lockdown to end and others do. The government will need to have the wisdom of Solomon to decide what to do.
    I'm puzzled as to where all the cars are. Obviously there are almost none on the streets, but what baffles me is that lots of resident's parking seems free too. In London this is. Somewhere there must be more cars than usual!

    People being noisy is a great crime. I'm so happy and lucky that my neighbours are quiet.
    "Somewhere there must be more cars than usual"

    Penarth, Wales
    Lots and lots?

    I live in Maida Vale, and there is a noticeable amount of extra space - no double parking on a sunday morning! In Bayswater (just down the road) there are whole bays that are almost empty.

    I guess we'll have to forgive you for your parked car as it allows you to report!
    You will. As I am now officially reporting on coronavirus I am apparently an essential worker! Who knew.

    I exult in my status alongside nurses and firemen
    Have you seen Contagion? You seem a natural for the role of Jude Law?
    < joke >

    To be honest I've thought this from the start. Expected some sort of random plant based supplement to be pushed as cure.

    Instead, eadric is a mask ramper.

    Doesn't the film end with an SEC sting on Jude Law's character?
    < /joke >
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,489

    Fewer than one in five of the British public believe the time is right to consider reopening schools, restaurants, pubs and stadiums. The findings, in a new poll for the Observer, suggest Boris Johnson will struggle to convince people to return their lives to normal if he tries to ease the lockdown soon.

    The poll by Opinium, taken between Wednesday and Friday last week, found 17% of people think the conditions have been met to consider reopening schools, against 67% who say they have not been, and that they should stay closed.

    Opposition to reopening restaurants and pubs – and allowing mass gatherings in sports and other stadiums to resume – is even higher. Just 11% of people think the time is right to consider reopening restaurants, while 78% are against. Only 9% believe it would be correct to consider reopening pubs, while 81% are against; 7% say it would be right to think of allowing mass gatherings at sports events or concerts to resume, with 84% against.

    On Saturday the psychologist Prof Dame Til Wykes of King’s College London said the public’s reactions to easing the lockdown were likely to reveal high levels of anxiety. “How reopening society is going to affect people has not really been examined in any detail,” she said....

    ...The Opinium poll shows the government struggling to hold on to public support over its handling of the coronavirus crisis. The percentage of people who approve of its management of the crisis has fallen from 61% three weeks ago to 47% now, with the proportion of those who disapprove up from 22% to 34%. The net approval rate has fallen therefore from plus 39% to plus 13%. Given the fragile state of support, ministers will be determined not to misread the public mood over easing the lockdown.

    Adam Drummond of Opinium said that views among the public over what to do about the lockdown seemed to differ from those at Westminster. “The public’s appetite for lifting the lockdown measures remains minuscule,” Drummond said. “Very few people believe that conditions have been met to allow for public spaces and venues to reopen on 8 May, and while some are treating the rules less strictly, few admit to breaching them.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/02/fearful-britons-oppose-lifting-lockdown-schools-pubs-restaurants-opinium-poll

    Polls like this piss me off. They encourage the Government to do nothing.

    My wife and I are desperate for nurseries to reopen. We're utterly exhausted. So are other parents of young children in our position.

    Bloody public opinion. Grr.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    eadric said:

    I fear the government won't make any plans to produce the millions of masks required and then in July / August announce that we all need to wear them.

    Please tell me they cannot be that stupid.

    Please.

    They should have been buying every mask available for the last six weeks, awaiting the inevitable announcement that any deconfinement must be accompanied by mask wearing (on buses, trains, in shops etc)
    Well the German government set themselves the target of 50 million German made masks a week by August. The UK government, we haven't heard any talk of really focusing on how to make any PPE at expanded volume here.

    And we know we can't trust the Chinese to provide it, you buy masks and you get t-shirts half the time. Apparently they are keeping just enormous numbers of masks for themselves, as they have mandated all sorts of rules for work e.g. mask, how often you must have a new one etc.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,489

    I'm not sure history is going to look favourably on that picture of President Xi and David Cameron having a pint together in his local.

    That'll be viewed as very Tea with Mussolini one day.

    Assume ole Brenda gets the standard Ceaușescu pardon.

    'I was only obeying orders given by my government.'
    Well, of course.

    She doesn't make policy. She does what the Government ask.
    Margaret Thatcher was all for constructive engagement with regimes that she was fundamentally opposed to. What should Cameron have done, put President Xi in the stocks and have people through mouldy vegetables at him?
    Not given him the red carpet treatment in 2015.

    It was naïve.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,489

    I'm not sure history is going to look favourably on that picture of President Xi and David Cameron having a pint together in his local.

    That'll be viewed as very Tea with Mussolini one day.

    Assume ole Brenda gets the standard Ceaușescu pardon.

    'I was only obeying orders given by my government.'
    Well, of course.

    She doesn't make policy. She does what the Government ask.
    Ah the 'I was only following orders' line as loved by collaborators and assistants of true evil.
    You've done better trolling than that.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,489
    eadric said:

    Mortimer said:

    eadric said:

    Masks will be compulsory on public transport in Spain from Monday as the country moves to gradually relax its tough lockdown.

    I hope the UK government have considered how they are going to get millions of masks every week for the public.

    My NHS sister is sceptical about public masks in that she says they are fine if they are used right but 90% of the public will not use them right and could increase infection. Things like keep adjusting them then fingering surfaces , re-using them , leaving them on surfaces , even constantly lowering them to talk .She thinks far better off just not bothering
    You see all those already with the people who are actually keen on wearing them, imagine what it will be like with those who think its a waste of time but are forced to.....
    For FUCK'S SAKE

    Masks and face coverings have some basic, meagre utility in preventing YOU THE WEARER being infected

    However, almost any face covering, however stupid you are, is notably effective in preventing YOU THE WEARER infecting others, with your breathing, talking, panting, sneezing and coughing

    That is the point. You wear them to protect OTHERS; they wear them to protect YOU

    Asian societies have passed this basic IQ test. It seems we are determined to fail
    Someone with a mask on literally walked in to me today. I saw 7 in village where my shop is. 6/7 were filthy, and had clearly been worn and handled day after day.

    They give the wearer too much false sense of security. I think it is very unlikely that it will ever be policy to wear them here.
    As I said, mask wearing, and the use and utility thereof, is a basic IQ test.

    Looks like many in the West will fail it. The meek, mask-wearing East Asians will inherit the earth
    I'm in favour of the ugly wearing masks.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    Fewer than one in five of the British public believe the time is right to consider reopening schools, restaurants, pubs and stadiums. The findings, in a new poll for the Observer, suggest Boris Johnson will struggle to convince people to return their lives to normal if he tries to ease the lockdown soon.

    The poll by Opinium, taken between Wednesday and Friday last week, found 17% of people think the conditions have been met to consider reopening schools, against 67% who say they have not been, and that they should stay closed.

    Opposition to reopening restaurants and pubs – and allowing mass gatherings in sports and other stadiums to resume – is even higher. Just 11% of people think the time is right to consider reopening restaurants, while 78% are against. Only 9% believe it would be correct to consider reopening pubs, while 81% are against; 7% say it would be right to think of allowing mass gatherings at sports events or concerts to resume, with 84% against.

    On Saturday the psychologist Prof Dame Til Wykes of King’s College London said the public’s reactions to easing the lockdown were likely to reveal high levels of anxiety. “How reopening society is going to affect people has not really been examined in any detail,” she said....

    ...The Opinium poll shows the government struggling to hold on to public support over its handling of the coronavirus crisis. The percentage of people who approve of its management of the crisis has fallen from 61% three weeks ago to 47% now, with the proportion of those who disapprove up from 22% to 34%. The net approval rate has fallen therefore from plus 39% to plus 13%. Given the fragile state of support, ministers will be determined not to misread the public mood over easing the lockdown.

    Adam Drummond of Opinium said that views among the public over what to do about the lockdown seemed to differ from those at Westminster. “The public’s appetite for lifting the lockdown measures remains minuscule,” Drummond said. “Very few people believe that conditions have been met to allow for public spaces and venues to reopen on 8 May, and while some are treating the rules less strictly, few admit to breaching them.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/02/fearful-britons-oppose-lifting-lockdown-schools-pubs-restaurants-opinium-poll

    Polls like this piss me off. They encourage the Government to do nothing.

    My wife and I are desperate for nurseries to reopen. We're utterly exhausted. So are other parents of young children in our position.

    Bloody public opinion. Grr.
    The only people I know who want the lockdown lifted are those who seem unhappy in their own company and used to organised fun, largely orbiting pubs and restaurants, or have young children.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932
    edited May 2020
    isam said:

    Crikey look at the cliff Ed Miliband’s ratings fell off after a few months as LotO

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

    I liked old Ed, I wish he’d been more successful. One of the highlights of the PB week back in the first half of the decade was poor departed Plato’s on the spot assessment of how he was doing at PMQs/how he looked etc... always horrendously badly! She might as well have written it the night before...

    Good to see people have stepped into her famous shoes and do the same for Boris... a fitting tribute

    Boris at PMQs? First thing to note is the Tory whips have told backbenchers to STFU so Boris can hear (and think about) the questions. Second is that Starmer's style is dull and convoluted. Last week the Speaker hinted he should push on, and Dominic Raab seemed to have misunderstood him more than once. It was like on University Challenge where by the time Paxo gets to the end of the question, you've forgotten how it started and does he want to know the author, the title or both?

    My impression so far is that Boris does not enjoy PMQs and nor is he very good. He should improve with practice. One problem with having spent his entire career ducking scrutiny is he has not developed the skill of answering questions.

    So how can Boris fight back? He can get better with practice. The whips cannot really ask MPs to resume barracking SKS because most of them are at home watching PMQs on telly, and in any case it might be counter-productive by putting Boris off his stroke. Number 10 could encourage backbenchers and their friends in the press to attack SKS's questions, complain to the Speaker and so on. Boris could time his paternity leave to miss most PMQs. Boris could also revert to the pre-Blair schedule of PMQs for 15 minutes twice a week, so SKS cannot develop an argument over a series of questions, and Ian Blackford gets just the one.

    We should look out for one or more of these things happening.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837
    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Masks will be compulsory on public transport in Spain from Monday as the country moves to gradually relax its tough lockdown.

    I hope the UK government have considered how they are going to get millions of masks every week for the public.

    My NHS sister is sceptical about public masks in that she says they are fine if they are used right but 90% of the public will not use them right and could increase infection. Things like keep adjusting them then fingering surfaces , re-using them , leaving them on surfaces , even constantly lowering them to talk .She thinks far better off just not bothering
    You see all those already with the people who are actually keen on wearing them, imagine what it will be like with those who think its a waste of time but are forced to.....
    For FUCK'S SAKE

    Masks and face coverings have some basic, meagre utility in preventing YOU THE WEARER being infected

    However, almost any face covering, however stupid you are, is notably effective in preventing YOU THE WEARER infecting others, with your breathing, talking, panting, sneezing and coughing

    That is the point. You wear them to protect OTHERS; they wear them to protect YOU

    Asian societies have passed this basic IQ test. It seems we are determined to fail
    Ill listen to the WHO and UK govt, if either say I should/need to wear them in certain circumstances I will.

    Currently they advise me not to, and you advise me to wear them.
    Christ. OK. Well then wait just a week because the British government is about to change its tune
    I wouldnt be surprised if you are right, although the PM said it was to keep up the publics morale rather than health reasons. The only place that could possibly be relevant to wear one now for me is the supermarket, and that is 10 minutes once every 10 days so quite unlikely to make much difference to the world or futute East Asian hegemony despite your strong views.

    Fair enough mate.

    I wear a mask whenever I am in a supermarket, or some close urban contact (narrow pavements, etc).. That is where you will spread it or catch it.

    If I am walking in a spacious open air environment or I'm at home then of course not. The mask hangs loose. But ready.

    This is one reason I think it is mad some councils have closed parks. They are the least likely place to catch this bug, in the context of the city, if you are reasonably socially distanced.

    It wont be a popular view but I am really glad we have been able to go to the parks and walk outside unlike in France, Spain and Italy (amongst many others). I think the balance of the lockdown has been broadly right here, it is not just about x people dying and getting ill, it is also about the quality of life for the vast majority. I think we have found a good balance between those tensions so far (despite having made mistakes on care homes, and probably on testing).

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205

    Masks will be compulsory on public transport in Spain from Monday as the country moves to gradually relax its tough lockdown.

    I hope the UK government have considered how they are going to get millions of masks every week for the public.

    Surely you mean millions of masks every hour? Won't you need a clean one to go home and two more the next day? Or could it just be even more virtue signalling?
    South Korea, you get two a week. Germany say by August should be able to produce about one a week for everybody.

    Also depends what type of mask.
    Germany one a week? Like underpants?
    I've got *goes to count*
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    eadric said:

    Masks now mandatory on Spanish public transport


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52513516

    I see no reason why we should be different

    I got a train to work today. I'm not joking, I was the only person in the three carriages I could see.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Masks will be compulsory on public transport in Spain from Monday as the country moves to gradually relax its tough lockdown.

    I hope the UK government have considered how they are going to get millions of masks every week for the public.

    My NHS sister is sceptical about public masks in that she says they are fine if they are used right but 90% of the public will not use them right and could increase infection. Things like keep adjusting them then fingering surfaces , re-using them , leaving them on surfaces , even constantly lowering them to talk .She thinks far better off just not bothering
    You see all those already with the people who are actually keen on wearing them, imagine what it will be like with those who think its a waste of time but are forced to.....
    For FUCK'S SAKE

    Masks and face coverings have some basic, meagre utility in preventing YOU THE WEARER being infected

    However, almost any face covering, however stupid you are, is notably effective in preventing YOU THE WEARER infecting others, with your breathing, talking, panting, sneezing and coughing

    That is the point. You wear them to protect OTHERS; they wear them to protect YOU

    Asian societies have passed this basic IQ test. It seems we are determined to fail
    Ill listen to the WHO and UK govt, if either say I should/need to wear them in certain circumstances I will.

    Currently they advise me not to, and you advise me to wear them.
    Christ. OK. Well then wait just a week because the British government is about to change its tune
    I wouldnt be surprised if you are right, although the PM said it was to keep up the publics morale rather than health reasons. The only place that could possibly be relevant to wear one now for me is the supermarket, and that is 10 minutes once every 10 days so quite unlikely to make much difference to the world or futute East Asian hegemony despite your strong views.

    Fair enough mate.

    I wear a mask whenever I am in a supermarket, or some close urban contact (narrow pavements, etc).. That is where you will spread it or catch it.

    If I am walking in a spacious open air environment or I'm at home then of course not. The mask hangs loose. But ready.

    This is one reason I think it is mad some councils have closed parks. They are the least likely place to catch this bug, in the context of the city, if you are reasonably socially distanced.

    It wont be a popular view but I am really glad we have been able to go to the parks and walk outside unlike in France, Spain and Italy (amongst many others). I think the balance of the lockdown has been broadly right here, it is not just about x people dying and getting ill, it is also about the quality of life for the vast majority. I think we have found a good balance between those tensions so far (despite having made mistakes on care homes, and probably on testing).

    +1
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932
    eadric said:

    Masks now mandatory on Spanish public transport


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52513516

    I see no reason why we should be different

    One obvious reason is we don't have the masks. When we do, we can fall into line with the rest of the world.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,775
    FF43 said:

    Omnium said:

    FF43 said:

    ..

    Omnium said:

    FF43 said:

    Omnium said:

    glw said:

    NYC overall: 19.9% positive for antibodies.

    Bronx: 27.6%
    Brooklyn: 19.2%
    Manhattan: 17.3%
    Queens: 18.4%
    Staten Island: 19.2%

    IFR of 0.8% on those current figures.

    Taking that IFR and applying it to the UK with current figures would suggest that 3.5 million have been infected across the country, and over 600,000 in London alone. Officially it's about 182,000 across the country. Now admittedly there are deaths to come, and different circumstances and populations between New York City and London and the UK, but a rough estimate of there being an order of magnitude more cases than is official does seem highly likely.
    Very good news if such high figures are correct. I actually think that the truth may be higher still, but just a hunch.

    If only one could trust the test!

    (Personally I had some sort of bug some weeks ago - it wasn't nice, but wasn't that bad either. I live in fairly central London)
    Why is it good news? It means this epidemic has seen less than one tenth of expected deaths in London before it runs its course and a lot less than one tenth of deaths elsewhere.
    I think you answered your own question.

    If everybody's had it and mostly recovered it's great.
    Less one tenth have had it. We're looking at a potential death toll in the hundreds of thousands in the UK, on a par with the whole of WW2. Doesn't that bother you?
    I want as many people as possible to have HAD the bug. There will be some partial immunity from having it and even if there isn't these people have demonstrated that they can deal with it.

    I don't get your point unfortunately. We're talking very small fractions of the population having had the disease.

    On a slightly related note, my Covid objective is NOT to contribute to herd immunity. A vaccine would be great, otherwise my aim is to stay well clear. I'm hardly alone in this objective.
    Well somehow the wires must be crossed.

    If everyone in the UK has had the disease already (unknowing perhaps, but they've survived) it's far better news that if only the small number that the NHS have identified have had it.

    My hope therefore is that it turn out that a very large fraction of the population has had this.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837

    Fewer than one in five of the British public believe the time is right to consider reopening schools, restaurants, pubs and stadiums. The findings, in a new poll for the Observer, suggest Boris Johnson will struggle to convince people to return their lives to normal if he tries to ease the lockdown soon.

    The poll by Opinium, taken between Wednesday and Friday last week, found 17% of people think the conditions have been met to consider reopening schools, against 67% who say they have not been, and that they should stay closed.

    Opposition to reopening restaurants and pubs – and allowing mass gatherings in sports and other stadiums to resume – is even higher. Just 11% of people think the time is right to consider reopening restaurants, while 78% are against. Only 9% believe it would be correct to consider reopening pubs, while 81% are against; 7% say it would be right to think of allowing mass gatherings at sports events or concerts to resume, with 84% against.

    On Saturday the psychologist Prof Dame Til Wykes of King’s College London said the public’s reactions to easing the lockdown were likely to reveal high levels of anxiety. “How reopening society is going to affect people has not really been examined in any detail,” she said....

    ...The Opinium poll shows the government struggling to hold on to public support over its handling of the coronavirus crisis. The percentage of people who approve of its management of the crisis has fallen from 61% three weeks ago to 47% now, with the proportion of those who disapprove up from 22% to 34%. The net approval rate has fallen therefore from plus 39% to plus 13%. Given the fragile state of support, ministers will be determined not to misread the public mood over easing the lockdown.

    Adam Drummond of Opinium said that views among the public over what to do about the lockdown seemed to differ from those at Westminster. “The public’s appetite for lifting the lockdown measures remains minuscule,” Drummond said. “Very few people believe that conditions have been met to allow for public spaces and venues to reopen on 8 May, and while some are treating the rules less strictly, few admit to breaching them.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/02/fearful-britons-oppose-lifting-lockdown-schools-pubs-restaurants-opinium-poll

    Polls like this piss me off. They encourage the Government to do nothing.

    My wife and I are desperate for nurseries to reopen. We're utterly exhausted. So are other parents of young children in our position.

    Bloody public opinion. Grr.
    And you can almost certainly move the %s significantly by rewording the questions slightly.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,675


    Polls like this piss me off. They encourage the Government to do nothing.

    My wife and I are desperate for nurseries to reopen. We're utterly exhausted. So are other parents of young children in our position.

    Bloody public opinion. Grr.

    I'm fortunate I can fob off my kids to my parents during lockdown.

    That and having a largeish house and garden is helping.

    I really do worry about families trapped in flats.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    eadric said:

    Masks now mandatory on Spanish public transport


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52513516

    I see no reason why we should be different

    One obvious reason is we don't have the masks. When we do, we can fall into line with the rest of the world.
    Another is a legal matter. Does the Covid 19 emergency legislation provide for such regulations?

  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,816
    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Masks will be compulsory on public transport in Spain from Monday as the country moves to gradually relax its tough lockdown.

    I hope the UK government have considered how they are going to get millions of masks every week for the public.

    My NHS sister is sceptical about public masks in that she says they are fine if they are used right but 90% of the public will not use them right and could increase infection. Things like keep adjusting them then fingering surfaces , re-using them , leaving them on surfaces , even constantly lowering them to talk .She thinks far better off just not bothering
    You see all those already with the people who are actually keen on wearing them, imagine what it will be like with those who think its a waste of time but are forced to.....
    For FUCK'S SAKE

    Masks and face coverings have some basic, meagre utility in preventing YOU THE WEARER being infected

    However, almost any face covering, however stupid you are, is notably effective in preventing YOU THE WEARER infecting others, with your breathing, talking, panting, sneezing and coughing

    That is the point. You wear them to protect OTHERS; they wear them to protect YOU

    Asian societies have passed this basic IQ test. It seems we are determined to fail
    Ill listen to the WHO and UK govt, if either say I should/need to wear them in certain circumstances I will.

    Currently they advise me not to, and you advise me to wear them.
    Christ. OK. Well then wait just a week because the British government is about to change its tune
    I wouldnt be surprised if you are right, although the PM said it was to keep up the publics morale rather than health reasons. The only place that could possibly be relevant to wear one now for me is the supermarket, and that is 10 minutes once every 10 days so quite unlikely to make much difference to the world or futute East Asian hegemony despite your strong views.

    Fair enough mate.

    I wear a mask whenever I am in a supermarket, or some close urban contact (narrow pavements, etc).. That is where you will spread it or catch it.

    If I am walking in a spacious open air environment or I'm at home then of course not. The mask hangs loose. But ready.

    This is one reason I think it is mad some councils have closed parks. They are the least likely place to catch this bug, in the context of the city, if you are reasonably socially distanced.

    But that means you have touched your face to lower it ! FFS this is why the public should not wear masks
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    Omnium said:

    FF43 said:

    Omnium said:

    FF43 said:

    ..

    Omnium said:

    FF43 said:

    Omnium said:

    glw said:

    NYC overall: 19.9% positive for antibodies.

    Bronx: 27.6%
    Brooklyn: 19.2%
    Manhattan: 17.3%
    Queens: 18.4%
    Staten Island: 19.2%

    IFR of 0.8% on those current figures.

    Taking that IFR and applying it to the UK with current figures would suggest that 3.5 million have been infected across the country, and over 600,000 in London alone. Officially it's about 182,000 across the country. Now admittedly there are deaths to come, and different circumstances and populations between New York City and London and the UK, but a rough estimate of there being an order of magnitude more cases than is official does seem highly likely.
    Very good news if such high figures are correct. I actually think that the truth may be higher still, but just a hunch.

    If only one could trust the test!

    (Personally I had some sort of bug some weeks ago - it wasn't nice, but wasn't that bad either. I live in fairly central London)
    Why is it good news? It means this epidemic has seen less than one tenth of expected deaths in London before it runs its course and a lot less than one tenth of deaths elsewhere.
    I think you answered your own question.

    If everybody's had it and mostly recovered it's great.
    Less one tenth have had it. We're looking at a potential death toll in the hundreds of thousands in the UK, on a par with the whole of WW2. Doesn't that bother you?
    I want as many people as possible to have HAD the bug. There will be some partial immunity from having it and even if there isn't these people have demonstrated that they can deal with it.

    I don't get your point unfortunately. We're talking very small fractions of the population having had the disease.

    On a slightly related note, my Covid objective is NOT to contribute to herd immunity. A vaccine would be great, otherwise my aim is to stay well clear. I'm hardly alone in this objective.
    Well somehow the wires must be crossed.

    If everyone in the UK has had the disease already (unknowing perhaps, but they've survived) it's far better news that if only the small number that the NHS have identified have had it.

    My hope therefore is that it turn out that a very large fraction of the population has had this.
    I can't remember the exact figures, nor is my maths good enough to work it out, but isn't the level at which herd immunity is reached also related to the R number? At c.20%, NYC presumably now just about has herd immunity at R=1?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Masks will be compulsory on public transport in Spain from Monday as the country moves to gradually relax its tough lockdown.

    I hope the UK government have considered how they are going to get millions of masks every week for the public.

    My NHS sister is sceptical about public masks in that she says they are fine if they are used right but 90% of the public will not use them right and could increase infection. Things like keep adjusting them then fingering surfaces , re-using them , leaving them on surfaces , even constantly lowering them to talk .She thinks far better off just not bothering
    You see all those already with the people who are actually keen on wearing them, imagine what it will be like with those who think its a waste of time but are forced to.....
    For FUCK'S SAKE

    Masks and face coverings have some basic, meagre utility in preventing YOU THE WEARER being infected

    However, almost any face covering, however stupid you are, is notably effective in preventing YOU THE WEARER infecting others, with your breathing, talking, panting, sneezing and coughing

    That is the point. You wear them to protect OTHERS; they wear them to protect YOU

    Asian societies have passed this basic IQ test. It seems we are determined to fail
    Ill listen to the WHO and UK govt, if either say I should/need to wear them in certain circumstances I will.

    Currently they advise me not to, and you advise me to wear them.
    Christ. OK. Well then wait just a week because the British government is about to change its tune
    I wouldnt be surprised if you are right, although the PM said it was to keep up the publics morale rather than health reasons. The only place that could possibly be relevant to wear one now for me is the supermarket, and that is 10 minutes once every 10 days so quite unlikely to make much difference to the world or futute East Asian hegemony despite your strong views.

    Fair enough mate.

    I wear a mask whenever I am in a supermarket, or some close urban contact (narrow pavements, etc).. That is where you will spread it or catch it.

    If I am walking in a spacious open air environment or I'm at home then of course not. The mask hangs loose. But ready.

    This is one reason I think it is mad some councils have closed parks. They are the least likely place to catch this bug, in the context of the city, if you are reasonably socially distanced.

    But that means you have touched your face to lower it ! FFS this is why the public should not wear masks
    Hang on, does that mean the mask ramper has himself failed the IQ test.....?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932

    eadric said:

    I fear the government won't make any plans to produce the millions of masks required and then in July / August announce that we all need to wear them.

    Please tell me they cannot be that stupid.

    Please.

    They should have been buying every mask available for the last six weeks, awaiting the inevitable announcement that any deconfinement must be accompanied by mask wearing (on buses, trains, in shops etc)
    Well the German government set themselves the target of 50 million German made masks a week by August. The UK government, we haven't heard any talk of really focusing on how to make any PPE at expanded volume here.

    And we know we can't trust the Chinese to provide it, you buy masks and you get t-shirts half the time. Apparently they are keeping just enormous numbers of masks for themselves, as they have mandated all sorts of rules for work e.g. mask, how often you must have a new one etc.
    Masks for the public do not have to be the same quality as for heart surgeons or Porton Down lab techs. There is no reason the government cannot place orders with textile factories, preferably in Britain.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119

    eadric said:

    I fear the government won't make any plans to produce the millions of masks required and then in July / August announce that we all need to wear them.

    Please tell me they cannot be that stupid.

    Please.

    They should have been buying every mask available for the last six weeks, awaiting the inevitable announcement that any deconfinement must be accompanied by mask wearing (on buses, trains, in shops etc)
    Well the German government set themselves the target of 50 million German made masks a week by August. The UK government, we haven't heard any talk of really focusing on how to make any PPE at expanded volume here.

    And we know we can't trust the Chinese to provide it, you buy masks and you get t-shirts half the time. Apparently they are keeping just enormous numbers of masks for themselves, as they have mandated all sorts of rules for work e.g. mask, how often you must have a new one etc.
    Masks for the public do not have to be the same quality as for heart surgeons or Porton Down lab techs. There is no reason the government cannot place orders with textile factories, preferably in Britain.
    They better bloody get on the case then.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837


    Polls like this piss me off. They encourage the Government to do nothing.

    My wife and I are desperate for nurseries to reopen. We're utterly exhausted. So are other parents of young children in our position.

    Bloody public opinion. Grr.

    I'm fortunate I can fob off my kids to my parents during lockdown.

    That and having a largeish house and garden is helping.

    I really do worry about families trapped in flats.
    Social distancing is pretty much impossible in some of the larger inner city estates. Tiny lifts, staircases and corridors make the shared spaces busy normally, even more so with far more people stuck at home through the day.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,489

    Fewer than one in five of the British public believe the time is right to consider reopening schools, restaurants, pubs and stadiums. The findings, in a new poll for the Observer, suggest Boris Johnson will struggle to convince people to return their lives to normal if he tries to ease the lockdown soon.

    The poll by Opinium, taken between Wednesday and Friday last week, found 17% of people think the conditions have been met to consider reopening schools, against 67% who say they have not been, and that they should stay closed.

    Opposition to reopening restaurants and pubs – and allowing mass gatherings in sports and other stadiums to resume – is even higher. Just 11% of people think the time is right to consider reopening restaurants, while 78% are against. Only 9% believe it would be correct to consider reopening pubs, while 81% are against; 7% say it would be right to think of allowing mass gatherings at sports events or concerts to resume, with 84% against.

    On Saturday the psychologist Prof Dame Til Wykes of King’s College London said the public’s reactions to easing the lockdown were likely to reveal high levels of anxiety. “How reopening society is going to affect people has not really been examined in any detail,” she said....

    ...The Opinium poll shows the government struggling to hold on to public support over its handling of the coronavirus crisis. The percentage of people who approve of its management of the crisis has fallen from 61% three weeks ago to 47% now, with the proportion of those who disapprove up from 22% to 34%. The net approval rate has fallen therefore from plus 39% to plus 13%. Given the fragile state of support, ministers will be determined not to misread the public mood over easing the lockdown.

    Adam Drummond of Opinium said that views among the public over what to do about the lockdown seemed to differ from those at Westminster. “The public’s appetite for lifting the lockdown measures remains minuscule,” Drummond said. “Very few people believe that conditions have been met to allow for public spaces and venues to reopen on 8 May, and while some are treating the rules less strictly, few admit to breaching them.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/02/fearful-britons-oppose-lifting-lockdown-schools-pubs-restaurants-opinium-poll

    Polls like this piss me off. They encourage the Government to do nothing.

    My wife and I are desperate for nurseries to reopen. We're utterly exhausted. So are other parents of young children in our position.

    Bloody public opinion. Grr.
    And you can almost certainly move the %s significantly by rewording the questions slightly.
    This is true.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    David Icke's YouTube channel has been deleted. He was banned from Facebook yesterday.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    Pulpstar said:

    Masks will be compulsory on public transport in Spain from Monday as the country moves to gradually relax its tough lockdown.

    I hope the UK government have considered how they are going to get millions of masks every week for the public.

    Surely you mean millions of masks every hour? Won't you need a clean one to go home and two more the next day? Or could it just be even more virtue signalling?
    South Korea, you get two a week. Germany say by August should be able to produce about one a week for everybody.

    Also depends what type of mask.
    Germany one a week? Like underpants?
    I've got *goes to count*
    10 of these

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,489
    Mortimer said:

    Fewer than one in five of the British public believe the time is right to consider reopening schools, restaurants, pubs and stadiums. The findings, in a new poll for the Observer, suggest Boris Johnson will struggle to convince people to return their lives to normal if he tries to ease the lockdown soon.

    The poll by Opinium, taken between Wednesday and Friday last week, found 17% of people think the conditions have been met to consider reopening schools, against 67% who say they have not been, and that they should stay closed.

    Opposition to reopening restaurants and pubs – and allowing mass gatherings in sports and other stadiums to resume – is even higher. Just 11% of people think the time is right to consider reopening restaurants, while 78% are against. Only 9% believe it would be correct to consider reopening pubs, while 81% are against; 7% say it would be right to think of allowing mass gatherings at sports events or concerts to resume, with 84% against.

    On Saturday the psychologist Prof Dame Til Wykes of King’s College London said the public’s reactions to easing the lockdown were likely to reveal high levels of anxiety. “How reopening society is going to affect people has not really been examined in any detail,” she said....

    ...The Opinium poll shows the government struggling to hold on to public support over its handling of the coronavirus crisis. The percentage of people who approve of its management of the crisis has fallen from 61% three weeks ago to 47% now, with the proportion of those who disapprove up from 22% to 34%. The net approval rate has fallen therefore from plus 39% to plus 13%. Given the fragile state of support, ministers will be determined not to misread the public mood over easing the lockdown.

    Adam Drummond of Opinium said that views among the public over what to do about the lockdown seemed to differ from those at Westminster. “The public’s appetite for lifting the lockdown measures remains minuscule,” Drummond said. “Very few people believe that conditions have been met to allow for public spaces and venues to reopen on 8 May, and while some are treating the rules less strictly, few admit to breaching them.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/02/fearful-britons-oppose-lifting-lockdown-schools-pubs-restaurants-opinium-poll

    Polls like this piss me off. They encourage the Government to do nothing.

    My wife and I are desperate for nurseries to reopen. We're utterly exhausted. So are other parents of young children in our position.

    Bloody public opinion. Grr.
    The only people I know who want the lockdown lifted are those who seem unhappy in their own company and used to organised fun, largely orbiting pubs and restaurants, or have young children.
    I think it goes deeper than that. Lots of people are tired of it but they are also scared.

    There are many of course who don't particularly enjoy their jobs or bosses though so might be happy staying at home getting paid or furloughed.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    eadric said:

    Mortimer said:

    eadric said:

    Masks now mandatory on Spanish public transport


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52513516

    I see no reason why we should be different

    I got a train to work today. I'm not joking, I was the only person in the three carriages I could see.
    Today in north London I saw something even weirder.

    A ten carriage Tube train with ONE passenger, in mid afternoon on a sunny Saturday. No kidding.
    Mad isn't it.

    Clues like this suggest the lockdown easing rampers are largely writing for newspapers.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Masks will be compulsory on public transport in Spain from Monday as the country moves to gradually relax its tough lockdown.

    I hope the UK government have considered how they are going to get millions of masks every week for the public.

    My NHS sister is sceptical about public masks in that she says they are fine if they are used right but 90% of the public will not use them right and could increase infection. Things like keep adjusting them then fingering surfaces , re-using them , leaving them on surfaces , even constantly lowering them to talk .She thinks far better off just not bothering
    You see all those already with the people who are actually keen on wearing them, imagine what it will be like with those who think its a waste of time but are forced to.....
    For FUCK'S SAKE

    Masks and face coverings have some basic, meagre utility in preventing YOU THE WEARER being infected

    However, almost any face covering, however stupid you are, is notably effective in preventing YOU THE WEARER infecting others, with your breathing, talking, panting, sneezing and coughing

    That is the point. You wear them to protect OTHERS; they wear them to protect YOU

    Asian societies have passed this basic IQ test. It seems we are determined to fail
    Ill listen to the WHO and UK govt, if either say I should/need to wear them in certain circumstances I will.

    Currently they advise me not to, and you advise me to wear them.
    Christ. OK. Well then wait just a week because the British government is about to change its tune
    I wouldnt be surprised if you are right, although the PM said it was to keep up the publics morale rather than health reasons. The only place that could possibly be relevant to wear one now for me is the supermarket, and that is 10 minutes once every 10 days so quite unlikely to make much difference to the world or futute East Asian hegemony despite your strong views.

    Fair enough mate.

    I wear a mask whenever I am in a supermarket, or some close urban contact (narrow pavements, etc).. That is where you will spread it or catch it.

    If I am walking in a spacious open air environment or I'm at home then of course not. The mask hangs loose. But ready.

    This is one reason I think it is mad some councils have closed parks. They are the least likely place to catch this bug, in the context of the city, if you are reasonably socially distanced.

    But that means you have touched your face to lower it ! FFS this is why the public should not wear masks
    So what? His mask stops his saliva reaching me whether he has touched his face or not. It will also work to protect him whether or not he touched his face. Sure, maybe he did just infect himself when he rubbed his eye but that is not my problem, or the mask's.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    Mortimer said:

    Fewer than one in five of the British public believe the time is right to consider reopening schools, restaurants, pubs and stadiums. The findings, in a new poll for the Observer, suggest Boris Johnson will struggle to convince people to return their lives to normal if he tries to ease the lockdown soon.

    The poll by Opinium, taken between Wednesday and Friday last week, found 17% of people think the conditions have been met to consider reopening schools, against 67% who say they have not been, and that they should stay closed.

    Opposition to reopening restaurants and pubs – and allowing mass gatherings in sports and other stadiums to resume – is even higher. Just 11% of people think the time is right to consider reopening restaurants, while 78% are against. Only 9% believe it would be correct to consider reopening pubs, while 81% are against; 7% say it would be right to think of allowing mass gatherings at sports events or concerts to resume, with 84% against.

    On Saturday the psychologist Prof Dame Til Wykes of King’s College London said the public’s reactions to easing the lockdown were likely to reveal high levels of anxiety. “How reopening society is going to affect people has not really been examined in any detail,” she said....

    ...The Opinium poll shows the government struggling to hold on to public support over its handling of the coronavirus crisis. The percentage of people who approve of its management of the crisis has fallen from 61% three weeks ago to 47% now, with the proportion of those who disapprove up from 22% to 34%. The net approval rate has fallen therefore from plus 39% to plus 13%. Given the fragile state of support, ministers will be determined not to misread the public mood over easing the lockdown.

    Adam Drummond of Opinium said that views among the public over what to do about the lockdown seemed to differ from those at Westminster. “The public’s appetite for lifting the lockdown measures remains minuscule,” Drummond said. “Very few people believe that conditions have been met to allow for public spaces and venues to reopen on 8 May, and while some are treating the rules less strictly, few admit to breaching them.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/02/fearful-britons-oppose-lifting-lockdown-schools-pubs-restaurants-opinium-poll

    Polls like this piss me off. They encourage the Government to do nothing.

    My wife and I are desperate for nurseries to reopen. We're utterly exhausted. So are other parents of young children in our position.

    Bloody public opinion. Grr.
    The only people I know who want the lockdown lifted are those who seem unhappy in their own company and used to organised fun, largely orbiting pubs and restaurants, or have young children.
    I think it goes deeper than that. Lots of people are tired of it but they are also scared.

    There are many of course who don't particularly enjoy their jobs or bosses though so might be happy staying at home getting paid or furloughed.
    I forgot to mention, every one of those I know wanting easing insists that 'everyone wants it eased', and go a little quiet when I point out that polling suggests the exact opposite.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    As a broad centre social democrat person I fully support the Boris approach and think that it is reasonable for the lockdown to continue broadly as current until end May.

    But I think that Boris needs to set a clear timetable for a way out with steps and timescales a. to give people hope and b. save the economy.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932
    Andy_JS said:

    David Icke's YouTube channel has been deleted. He was banned from Facebook yesterday.

    So David Icke was right. There is a conspiracy to silence him!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,878
    eadric said:

    Mortimer said:

    eadric said:

    Masks now mandatory on Spanish public transport


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52513516

    I see no reason why we should be different

    I got a train to work today. I'm not joking, I was the only person in the three carriages I could see.
    Today in north London I saw something even weirder.

    A ten carriage Tube train with ONE passenger, in mid afternoon on a sunny Saturday. No kidding.
    Except there is no such thing as a "ten-carriage Tube train". You can get 8 carriages on the Metropolitan, Central and Victoria lines, 7 on the Bakerloo, Circle, District, Hammersmith & City, and Jubilee. 6 on the Northern and Piccadilly. And only 4 on the Waterloo & City.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,816

    eadric said:

    Mortimer said:

    eadric said:

    Masks now mandatory on Spanish public transport


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52513516

    I see no reason why we should be different

    I got a train to work today. I'm not joking, I was the only person in the three carriages I could see.
    Today in north London I saw something even weirder.

    A ten carriage Tube train with ONE passenger, in mid afternoon on a sunny Saturday. No kidding.
    Except there is no such thing as a "ten-carriage Tube train". You can get 8 carriages on the Metropolitan, Central and Victoria lines, 7 on the Bakerloo, Circle, District, Hammersmith & City, and Jubilee. 6 on the Northern and Piccadilly. And only 4 on the Waterloo & City.
    Getting it back atcha!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    edited May 2020
    Ave_it said:

    As a broad centre social democrat person I fully support the Boris approach and think that it is reasonable for the lockdown to continue broadly as current until end May.

    But I think that Boris needs to set a clear timetable for a way out with steps and timescales a. to give people hope and b. save the economy.

    Ave_it nails it yet again.

    The only announcement next week will be along the lines of 'heres some minor changes, (e.g. tips and garden centres) but lets make one more 3 week push and start lifting at the beginning of June'.

    The timetable for the easing can then be announced in the last week of May, and be in fact very slow...
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Omnium said:

    FF43 said:

    Omnium said:

    FF43 said:

    ..

    Omnium said:

    FF43 said:

    Omnium said:

    glw said:

    NYC overall: 19.9% positive for antibodies.

    Bronx: 27.6%
    Brooklyn: 19.2%
    Manhattan: 17.3%
    Queens: 18.4%
    Staten Island: 19.2%

    IFR of 0.8% on those current figures.

    Taking that IFR and applying it to the UK with current figures would suggest that 3.5 million have been infected across the country, and over 600,000 in London alone. Officially it's about 182,000 across the country. Now admittedly there are deaths to come, and different circumstances and populations between New York City and London and the UK, but a rough estimate of there being an order of magnitude more cases than is official does seem highly likely.
    Very good news if such high figures are correct. I actually think that the truth may be higher still, but just a hunch.

    If only one could trust the test!

    (Personally I had some sort of bug some weeks ago - it wasn't nice, but wasn't that bad either. I live in fairly central London)
    Why is it good news? It means this epidemic has seen less than one tenth of expected deaths in London before it runs its course and a lot less than one tenth of deaths elsewhere.
    I think you answered your own question.

    If everybody's had it and mostly recovered it's great.
    Less one tenth have had it. We're looking at a potential death toll in the hundreds of thousands in the UK, on a par with the whole of WW2. Doesn't that bother you?
    I want as many people as possible to have HAD the bug. There will be some partial immunity from having it and even if there isn't these people have demonstrated that they can deal with it.

    I don't get your point unfortunately. We're talking very small fractions of the population having had the disease.

    On a slightly related note, my Covid objective is NOT to contribute to herd immunity. A vaccine would be great, otherwise my aim is to stay well clear. I'm hardly alone in this objective.
    Well somehow the wires must be crossed.

    If everyone in the UK has had the disease already (unknowing perhaps, but they've survived) it's far better news that if only the small number that the NHS have identified have had it.

    My hope therefore is that it turn out that a very large fraction of the population has had this.
    Understood now. That would be good obviously.

    The figures back in the mists of this conversation suggest one in twenty in the UK have had the virus, based on a New York derived 0.8% Infection/fatality rate. It also suggests an implied death toll in the UK of about 300 000 if the epidemic runs its course and a 60% herd immunity rate.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,775
    Mortimer said:

    Omnium said:

    FF43 said:

    Omnium said:

    FF43 said:

    ..

    Omnium said:

    FF43 said:

    Omnium said:

    glw said:

    NYC overall: 19.9% positive for antibodies.

    Bronx: 27.6%
    Brooklyn: 19.2%
    Manhattan: 17.3%
    Queens: 18.4%
    Staten Island: 19.2%

    IFR of 0.8% on those current figures.

    Taking that IFR and applying it to the UK with current figures would suggest that 3.5 million have been infected across the country, and over 600,000 in London alone. Officially it's about 182,000 across the country. Now admittedly there are deaths to come, and different circumstances and populations between New York City and London and the UK, but a rough estimate of there being an order of magnitude more cases than is official does seem highly likely.
    Very good news if such high figures are correct. I actually think that the truth may be higher still, but just a hunch.

    If only one could trust the test!

    (Personally I had some sort of bug some weeks ago - it wasn't nice, but wasn't that bad either. I live in fairly central London)
    Why is it good news? It means this epidemic has seen less than one tenth of expected deaths in London before it runs its course and a lot less than one tenth of deaths elsewhere.
    I think you answered your own question.

    If everybody's had it and mostly recovered it's great.
    Less one tenth have had it. We're looking at a potential death toll in the hundreds of thousands in the UK, on a par with the whole of WW2. Doesn't that bother you?
    I want as many people as possible to have HAD the bug. There will be some partial immunity from having it and even if there isn't these people have demonstrated that they can deal with it.

    I don't get your point unfortunately. We're talking very small fractions of the population having had the disease.

    On a slightly related note, my Covid objective is NOT to contribute to herd immunity. A vaccine would be great, otherwise my aim is to stay well clear. I'm hardly alone in this objective.
    Well somehow the wires must be crossed.

    If everyone in the UK has had the disease already (unknowing perhaps, but they've survived) it's far better news that if only the small number that the NHS have identified have had it.

    My hope therefore is that it turn out that a very large fraction of the population has had this.
    I can't remember the exact figures, nor is my maths good enough to work it out, but isn't the level at which herd immunity is reached also related to the R number? At c.20%, NYC presumably now just about has herd immunity at R=1?
    Sure, if most others are immune then you're very unlikely to catch it given that you won't meet anyone to catch it from.

    (Admittedly there are types of immunity - if it was symbiotic then this would be true)

    You don't need maths for this.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    FF43 said:

    Omnium said:

    FF43 said:

    Omnium said:

    FF43 said:

    ..

    Omnium said:

    FF43 said:

    Omnium said:

    glw said:

    NYC overall: 19.9% positive for antibodies.

    Bronx: 27.6%
    Brooklyn: 19.2%
    Manhattan: 17.3%
    Queens: 18.4%
    Staten Island: 19.2%

    IFR of 0.8% on those current figures.

    Taking that IFR and applying it to the UK with current figures would suggest that 3.5 million have been infected across the country, and over 600,000 in London alone. Officially it's about 182,000 across the country. Now admittedly there are deaths to come, and different circumstances and populations between New York City and London and the UK, but a rough estimate of there being an order of magnitude more cases than is official does seem highly likely.
    Very good news if such high figures are correct. I actually think that the truth may be higher still, but just a hunch.

    If only one could trust the test!

    (Personally I had some sort of bug some weeks ago - it wasn't nice, but wasn't that bad either. I live in fairly central London)
    Why is it good news? It means this epidemic has seen less than one tenth of expected deaths in London before it runs its course and a lot less than one tenth of deaths elsewhere.
    I think you answered your own question.

    If everybody's had it and mostly recovered it's great.
    Less one tenth have had it. We're looking at a potential death toll in the hundreds of thousands in the UK, on a par with the whole of WW2. Doesn't that bother you?
    I want as many people as possible to have HAD the bug. There will be some partial immunity from having it and even if there isn't these people have demonstrated that they can deal with it.

    I don't get your point unfortunately. We're talking very small fractions of the population having had the disease.

    On a slightly related note, my Covid objective is NOT to contribute to herd immunity. A vaccine would be great, otherwise my aim is to stay well clear. I'm hardly alone in this objective.
    Well somehow the wires must be crossed.

    If everyone in the UK has had the disease already (unknowing perhaps, but they've survived) it's far better news that if only the small number that the NHS have identified have had it.

    My hope therefore is that it turn out that a very large fraction of the population has had this.
    Understood now. That would be good obviously.

    The figures back in the mists of this conversation suggest one in twenty in the UK have had the virus, based on a New York derived 0.8% Infection/fatality rate. It also suggests an implied death toll in the UK of about 300 000 if the epidemic runs its course and a 60% herd immunity rate.
    With a reduced R number, the level at which herd immunity kicks is is FAR lower.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited May 2020
    Bill Gates says US testing data is 'bogus' because it still takes 3 to 4 days to get results

    "The United States does not prioritize who gets tested," he said. "And the United States does not make sure you get results in 24 hours."

    https://www.businessinsider.com/bill-gates-us-coronavirus-testing-data-bogus-inequality-delays-2020-5?r=US&IR=T

    All the nonsense of was it 100k or not....this is really the important point, how long are they taking and are the right people getting tested quickly.

    I am sure the answer is No in the UK. But that should be the focus now, not can we do 200k.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Also I don't support mask wearing for the general population except where there are medical reasons as defined by WHO
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,898
    Mortimer said:


    Mad isn't it.

    Clues like this suggest the lockdown easing rampers are largely writing for newspapers.

    Hundreds of empty or nearly empty trains are running up and down the lines every day. The train operators are getting no passenger income because there are no passengers even with the reduced timetables.

  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117

    eadric said:

    Mortimer said:

    eadric said:

    Masks will be compulsory on public transport in Spain from Monday as the country moves to gradually relax its tough lockdown.

    I hope the UK government have considered how they are going to get millions of masks every week for the public.

    My NHS sister is sceptical about public masks in that she says they are fine if they are used right but 90% of the public will not use them right and could increase infection. Things like keep adjusting them then fingering surfaces , re-using them , leaving them on surfaces , even constantly lowering them to talk .She thinks far better off just not bothering
    You see all those already with the people who are actually keen on wearing them, imagine what it will be like with those who think its a waste of time but are forced to.....
    For FUCK'S SAKE

    Masks and face coverings have some basic, meagre utility in preventing YOU THE WEARER being infected

    However, almost any face covering, however stupid you are, is notably effective in preventing YOU THE WEARER infecting others, with your breathing, talking, panting, sneezing and coughing

    That is the point. You wear them to protect OTHERS; they wear them to protect YOU

    Asian societies have passed this basic IQ test. It seems we are determined to fail
    Someone with a mask on literally walked in to me today. I saw 7 in village where my shop is. 6/7 were filthy, and had clearly been worn and handled day after day.

    They give the wearer too much false sense of security. I think it is very unlikely that it will ever be policy to wear them here.
    As I said, mask wearing, and the use and utility thereof, is a basic IQ test.

    Looks like many in the West will fail it. The meek, mask-wearing East Asians will inherit the earth
    I'm in favour of the ugly wearing masks.

    Just calling out a spot of racism comrade......
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932
    Mortimer said:

    Ave_it said:

    As a broad centre social democrat person I fully support the Boris approach and think that it is reasonable for the lockdown to continue broadly as current until end May.

    But I think that Boris needs to set a clear timetable for a way out with steps and timescales a. to give people hope and b. save the economy.

    Ave_it nails it yet again.

    The only announcement next week will be along the lines of 'heres some minor changes, (e.g. tips and garden centres) but lets make one more 3 week push and start lifting at the beginning of June'.

    The timetable for the easing can then be announced in the last week of May, and be in fact very slow...
    Tips need to reopen pronto but what is the deal with garden centres, that were raised twice at PMQs last week?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837
    Mortimer said:

    Ave_it said:

    As a broad centre social democrat person I fully support the Boris approach and think that it is reasonable for the lockdown to continue broadly as current until end May.

    But I think that Boris needs to set a clear timetable for a way out with steps and timescales a. to give people hope and b. save the economy.

    Ave_it nails it yet again.

    The only announcement next week will be along the lines of 'heres some minor changes, (e.g. tips and garden centres) but lets make one more 3 week push and start lifting at the beginning of June'.

    The timetable for the easing can then be announced in the last week of May, and be in fact very slow...
    That is what has been signposted so far.

    This review will be get non Covid 19 healthcare ramped up and encourage businesses closed but currently not banned from operating to reopen if they can.

    Next 3 weeks to convince the public, get testing ramped up further including test track and tracing teams and the new app in place, as well as learning from lockdown easings elsewhere.

    So end of May it is for a gradual loosening of the lockdown.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    https://www.euroweeklynews.com/2020/05/02/breaking-news-spain-relaxes-lockdown-rules-to-allow-meetings-of-up-to-10-people-bars-can-fill-up-to-50-terrace-capacity-in-phase-1-of-de-escalation/?fbclid=IwAR34HWuuTHOia4DFS5L7yYX4SMZPK5H9axCXyyrBBDsrw1eo2U7OXvuSA4k

    This is the EU article above signed by some of the big EU leaders - although not by Sanchez of Spain. It reads like a bowl well-intentioned apple pie around 3 months too late. Talks a good talk but I'm not sure it cuts the mustard! :wink::smiley:
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837
    edited May 2020

    Bill Gates says US testing data is 'bogus' because it still takes 3 to 4 days to get results

    "The United States does not prioritize who gets tested," he said. "And the United States does not make sure you get results in 24 hours."

    https://www.businessinsider.com/bill-gates-us-coronavirus-testing-data-bogus-inequality-delays-2020-5?r=US&IR=T

    All the nonsense of was it 100k or not....this is really the important point, how long are they taking and are the right people getting tested quickly.

    I am sure the answer is No in the UK. But that should be the focus now, not can we do 200k.

    I was surprised to see an independent chemist by me had a sign in their window offering (privately paid for) covid19 tests today.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    edited May 2020

    Mortimer said:

    Ave_it said:

    As a broad centre social democrat person I fully support the Boris approach and think that it is reasonable for the lockdown to continue broadly as current until end May.

    But I think that Boris needs to set a clear timetable for a way out with steps and timescales a. to give people hope and b. save the economy.

    Ave_it nails it yet again.

    The only announcement next week will be along the lines of 'heres some minor changes, (e.g. tips and garden centres) but lets make one more 3 week push and start lifting at the beginning of June'.

    The timetable for the easing can then be announced in the last week of May, and be in fact very slow...
    Tips need to reopen pronto but what is the deal with garden centres, that were raised twice at PMQs last week?
    I am guessing its a combination of economics and demographics my friend.

    My parents have spent 80% of their lockdown time in the garden.

    And garden centres' best season is the spring.

    Also, I imagine the crossover of 'people with gardens' and 'people who badger their MPs about policy' is pretty high....
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Mortimer said:

    Ave_it said:

    As a broad centre social democrat person I fully support the Boris approach and think that it is reasonable for the lockdown to continue broadly as current until end May.

    But I think that Boris needs to set a clear timetable for a way out with steps and timescales a. to give people hope and b. save the economy.

    Ave_it nails it yet again.

    The only announcement next week will be along the lines of 'heres some minor changes, (e.g. tips and garden centres) but lets make one more 3 week push and start lifting at the beginning of June'.

    The timetable for the easing can then be announced in the last week of May, and be in fact very slow...
    Please please please lets stop this nonsense about the premier league finishing..Look at Germany yesterday. 3 Cologne players have tested positive and the original start date has now been pushed back,,this will continue ad infinitum as it would with our league. Put it to bed and lets move on.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,489
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Fewer than one in five of the British public believe the time is right to consider reopening schools, restaurants, pubs and stadiums. The findings, in a new poll for the Observer, suggest Boris Johnson will struggle to convince people to return their lives to normal if he tries to ease the lockdown soon.

    The poll by Opinium, taken between Wednesday and Friday last week, found 17% of people think the conditions have been met to consider reopening schools, against 67% who say they have not been, and that they should stay closed.

    Opposition to reopening restaurants and pubs – and allowing mass gatherings in sports and other stadiums to resume – is even higher. Just 11% of people think the time is right to consider reopening restaurants, while 78% are against. Only 9% believe it would be correct to consider reopening pubs, while 81% are against; 7% say it would be right to think of allowing mass gatherings at sports events or concerts to resume, with 84% against.

    On Saturday the psychologist Prof Dame Til Wykes of King’s College London said the public’s reactions to easing the lockdown were likely to reveal high levels of anxiety. “How reopening society is going to affect people has not really been examined in any detail,” she said....

    ...The Opinium poll shows the government struggling to hold on to public support over its handling of the coronavirus crisis. The percentage of people who approve of its management of the crisis has fallen from 61% three weeks ago to 47% now, with the proportion of those who disapprove up from 22% to 34%. The net approval rate has fallen therefore from plus 39% to plus 13%. Given the fragile state of support, ministers will be determined not to misread the public mood over easing the lockdown.

    Adam Drummond of Opinium said that views among the public over what to do about the lockdown seemed to differ from those at Westminster. “The public’s appetite for lifting the lockdown measures remains minuscule,” Drummond said. “Very few people believe that conditions have been met to allow for public spaces and venues to reopen on 8 May, and while some are treating the rules less strictly, few admit to breaching them.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/02/fearful-britons-oppose-lifting-lockdown-schools-pubs-restaurants-opinium-poll

    Polls like this piss me off. They encourage the Government to do nothing.

    My wife and I are desperate for nurseries to reopen. We're utterly exhausted. So are other parents of young children in our position.

    Bloody public opinion. Grr.
    The only people I know who want the lockdown lifted are those who seem unhappy in their own company and used to organised fun, largely orbiting pubs and restaurants, or have young children.
    I think it goes deeper than that. Lots of people are tired of it but they are also scared.

    There are many of course who don't particularly enjoy their jobs or bosses though so might be happy staying at home getting paid or furloughed.
    I forgot to mention, every one of those I know wanting easing insists that 'everyone wants it eased', and go a little quiet when I point out that polling suggests the exact opposite.
    That doesn't conflict with what I said.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    edited May 2020
    timmo said:

    Mortimer said:

    Ave_it said:

    As a broad centre social democrat person I fully support the Boris approach and think that it is reasonable for the lockdown to continue broadly as current until end May.

    But I think that Boris needs to set a clear timetable for a way out with steps and timescales a. to give people hope and b. save the economy.

    Ave_it nails it yet again.

    The only announcement next week will be along the lines of 'heres some minor changes, (e.g. tips and garden centres) but lets make one more 3 week push and start lifting at the beginning of June'.

    The timetable for the easing can then be announced in the last week of May, and be in fact very slow...
    Please please please lets stop this nonsense about the premier league finishing..Look at Germany yesterday. 3 Cologne players have tested positive and the original start date has now been pushed back,,this will continue ad infinitum as it would with our league. Put it to bed and lets move on.
    As a Baggie with several Liverpool fans as mates, I am firmly in favour of the suggestion of voiding this season but promoting the top two teams from Championship to form a larger PL....
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,489
    Ave_it said:

    As a broad centre social democrat person I fully support the Boris approach and think that it is reasonable for the lockdown to continue broadly as current until end May.

    But I think that Boris needs to set a clear timetable for a way out with steps and timescales a. to give people hope and b. save the economy.

    Social Democrat?

    What have you done with the real Ave It?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729
    Ave_it said:

    Also I don't support mask wearing for the general population except where there are medical reasons as defined by WHO

    There are some people who would benefit from wearing a mask.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Fewer than one in five of the British public believe the time is right to consider reopening schools, restaurants, pubs and stadiums. The findings, in a new poll for the Observer, suggest Boris Johnson will struggle to convince people to return their lives to normal if he tries to ease the lockdown soon.

    The poll by Opinium, taken between Wednesday and Friday last week, found 17% of people think the conditions have been met to consider reopening schools, against 67% who say they have not been, and that they should stay closed.

    Opposition to reopening restaurants and pubs – and allowing mass gatherings in sports and other stadiums to resume – is even higher. Just 11% of people think the time is right to consider reopening restaurants, while 78% are against. Only 9% believe it would be correct to consider reopening pubs, while 81% are against; 7% say it would be right to think of allowing mass gatherings at sports events or concerts to resume, with 84% against.

    On Saturday the psychologist Prof Dame Til Wykes of King’s College London said the public’s reactions to easing the lockdown were likely to reveal high levels of anxiety. “How reopening society is going to affect people has not really been examined in any detail,” she said....

    ...The Opinium poll shows the government struggling to hold on to public support over its handling of the coronavirus crisis. The percentage of people who approve of its management of the crisis has fallen from 61% three weeks ago to 47% now, with the proportion of those who disapprove up from 22% to 34%. The net approval rate has fallen therefore from plus 39% to plus 13%. Given the fragile state of support, ministers will be determined not to misread the public mood over easing the lockdown.

    Adam Drummond of Opinium said that views among the public over what to do about the lockdown seemed to differ from those at Westminster. “The public’s appetite for lifting the lockdown measures remains minuscule,” Drummond said. “Very few people believe that conditions have been met to allow for public spaces and venues to reopen on 8 May, and while some are treating the rules less strictly, few admit to breaching them.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/02/fearful-britons-oppose-lifting-lockdown-schools-pubs-restaurants-opinium-poll

    Polls like this piss me off. They encourage the Government to do nothing.

    My wife and I are desperate for nurseries to reopen. We're utterly exhausted. So are other parents of young children in our position.

    Bloody public opinion. Grr.
    The only people I know who want the lockdown lifted are those who seem unhappy in their own company and used to organised fun, largely orbiting pubs and restaurants, or have young children.
    I think it goes deeper than that. Lots of people are tired of it but they are also scared.

    There are many of course who don't particularly enjoy their jobs or bosses though so might be happy staying at home getting paid or furloughed.
    I forgot to mention, every one of those I know wanting easing insists that 'everyone wants it eased', and go a little quiet when I point out that polling suggests the exact opposite.
    That doesn't conflict with what I said.
    I didn't mean it too! I was just making a supplementary point that I forgot to earlier.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    Tension in spain between Podemos and PSOE with Podemos [ great fans of Venezuela!] pushing for a tax on the wealthy to pay for Corona virus [I know :) ]. Even together they have no majority. This could get messy quite quickly.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    Ave_it said:

    As a broad centre social democrat person I fully support the Boris approach and think that it is reasonable for the lockdown to continue broadly as current until end May.

    But I think that Boris needs to set a clear timetable for a way out with steps and timescales a. to give people hope and b. save the economy.

    The only solution remains herd immunity. Sweden are doing the right thing IMO.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    edited May 2020

    Mortimer said:

    Ave_it said:

    As a broad centre social democrat person I fully support the Boris approach and think that it is reasonable for the lockdown to continue broadly as current until end May.

    But I think that Boris needs to set a clear timetable for a way out with steps and timescales a. to give people hope and b. save the economy.

    Ave_it nails it yet again.

    The only announcement next week will be along the lines of 'heres some minor changes, (e.g. tips and garden centres) but lets make one more 3 week push and start lifting at the beginning of June'.

    The timetable for the easing can then be announced in the last week of May, and be in fact very slow...
    That is what has been signposted so far.

    This review will be get non Covid 19 healthcare ramped up and encourage businesses closed but currently not banned from operating to reopen if they can.

    Next 3 weeks to convince the public, get testing ramped up further including test track and tracing teams and the new app in place, as well as learning from lockdown easings elsewhere.

    So end of May it is for a gradual loosening of the lockdown.

    When the Times headline today stated that people need to take their temperatures before going out...that was it for me....we really do have the most incompetent set of individuals in charge at this minute...

    Just think...we are an Island...Boris could have locked down 2 weeks earlier and closed airports earlier still......he would now be walking on water...but he is a buffoon, and we have the worst set of people in charge in my lifetime.....
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,898
    I can't help but feel the anti-lockdown Telegraph is trying to bounce the Government into easing restrictions. Haven't they said before restrictions were going to be eased but nothing changed?
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    Ave_it said:

    As a broad centre social democrat person I fully support the Boris approach and think that it is reasonable for the lockdown to continue broadly as current until end May.

    But I think that Boris needs to set a clear timetable for a way out with steps and timescales a. to give people hope and b. save the economy.

    Social Democrat?

    What have you done with the real Ave It?
    I feel that the moderate policies that I set out on here qualify me to redefine myself as Mr Centre 😊
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    Andy_JS said:

    Ave_it said:

    As a broad centre social democrat person I fully support the Boris approach and think that it is reasonable for the lockdown to continue broadly as current until end May.

    But I think that Boris needs to set a clear timetable for a way out with steps and timescales a. to give people hope and b. save the economy.

    The only solution remains herd immunity. Sweden are doing the right thing IMO.
    No. You can keep the virus at a low level with track and trace like South Korea till a vaccine is out.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,489
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Fewer than one in five of the British public believe the time is right to consider reopening schools, restaurants, pubs and stadiums. The findings, in a new poll for the Observer, suggest Boris Johnson will struggle to convince people to return their lives to normal if he tries to ease the lockdown soon.

    The poll by Opinium, taken between Wednesday and Friday last week, found 17% of people think the conditions have been met to consider reopening schools, against 67% who say they have not been, and that they should stay closed.

    Opposition to reopening restaurants and pubs – and allowing mass gatherings in sports and other stadiums to resume – is even higher. Just 11% of people think the time is right to consider reopening restaurants, while 78% are against. Only 9% believe it would be correct to consider reopening pubs, while 81% are against; 7% say it would be right to think of allowing mass gatherings at sports events or concerts to resume, with 84% against.

    On Saturday the psychologist Prof Dame Til Wykes of King’s College London said the public’s reactions to easing the lockdown were likely to reveal high levels of anxiety. “How reopening society is going to affect people has not really been examined in any detail,” she said....

    ...The Opinium poll shows the government struggling to hold on to public support over its handling of the coronavirus crisis. The percentage of people who approve of its management of the crisis has fallen from 61% three weeks ago to 47% now, with the proportion of those who disapprove up from 22% to 34%. The net approval rate has fallen therefore from plus 39% to plus 13%. Given the fragile state of support, ministers will be determined not to misread the public mood over easing the lockdown.

    Adam Drummond of Opinium said that views among the public over what to do about the lockdown seemed to differ from those at Westminster. “The public’s appetite for lifting the lockdown measures remains minuscule,” Drummond said. “Very few people believe that conditions have been met to allow for public spaces and venues to reopen on 8 May, and while some are treating the rules less strictly, few admit to breaching them.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/02/fearful-britons-oppose-lifting-lockdown-schools-pubs-restaurants-opinium-poll

    Polls like this piss me off. They encourage the Government to do nothing.

    My wife and I are desperate for nurseries to reopen. We're utterly exhausted. So are other parents of young children in our position.

    Bloody public opinion. Grr.
    The only people I know who want the lockdown lifted are those who seem unhappy in their own company and used to organised fun, largely orbiting pubs and restaurants, or have young children.
    I think it goes deeper than that. Lots of people are tired of it but they are also scared.

    There are many of course who don't particularly enjoy their jobs or bosses though so might be happy staying at home getting paid or furloughed.
    I forgot to mention, every one of those I know wanting easing insists that 'everyone wants it eased', and go a little quiet when I point out that polling suggests the exact opposite.
    That doesn't conflict with what I said.
    I didn't mean it too! I was just making a supplementary point that I forgot to earlier.
    Fair enough.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729
    tyson said:

    Mortimer said:

    Ave_it said:

    As a broad centre social democrat person I fully support the Boris approach and think that it is reasonable for the lockdown to continue broadly as current until end May.

    But I think that Boris needs to set a clear timetable for a way out with steps and timescales a. to give people hope and b. save the economy.

    Ave_it nails it yet again.

    The only announcement next week will be along the lines of 'heres some minor changes, (e.g. tips and garden centres) but lets make one more 3 week push and start lifting at the beginning of June'.

    The timetable for the easing can then be announced in the last week of May, and be in fact very slow...
    That is what has been signposted so far.

    This review will be get non Covid 19 healthcare ramped up and encourage businesses closed but currently not banned from operating to reopen if they can.

    Next 3 weeks to convince the public, get testing ramped up further including test track and tracing teams and the new app in place, as well as learning from lockdown easings elsewhere.

    So end of May it is for a gradual loosening of the lockdown.

    When the Times headline today stated that people need to take their temperatures before going out...that was it for me....we really do have the most incompetent set of individuals in charge at this minute...

    Just think...we are an Island...Boris could have locked down 2 weeks earlier and closed airports earlier still......he would now be walking on water...but he is a buffoon, and we have the worst set of people in charge in my lifetime.....
    Easy to say. The Govt was following scientific advice given at the time..
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    tyson said:

    Mortimer said:

    Ave_it said:

    As a broad centre social democrat person I fully support the Boris approach and think that it is reasonable for the lockdown to continue broadly as current until end May.

    But I think that Boris needs to set a clear timetable for a way out with steps and timescales a. to give people hope and b. save the economy.

    Ave_it nails it yet again.

    The only announcement next week will be along the lines of 'heres some minor changes, (e.g. tips and garden centres) but lets make one more 3 week push and start lifting at the beginning of June'.

    The timetable for the easing can then be announced in the last week of May, and be in fact very slow...
    That is what has been signposted so far.

    This review will be get non Covid 19 healthcare ramped up and encourage businesses closed but currently not banned from operating to reopen if they can.

    Next 3 weeks to convince the public, get testing ramped up further including test track and tracing teams and the new app in place, as well as learning from lockdown easings elsewhere.

    So end of May it is for a gradual loosening of the lockdown.

    When the Times headline today stated that people need to take their temperatures before going out...that was it for me....we really do have the most incompetent set of individuals in charge at this minute...

    Just think...we are an Island...Boris could have locked down 2 weeks earlier and closed airports earlier still......he would now be walking on water...but he is a buffoon, and we have the worst set of people in charge in my lifetime.....
    My favourite thing about this current government is that unlike every one since Maggie, they don't seem petrified about the papers or the broadcast media. Those in power have realised that the media influences and reflects Westminster outrage far more than the views of the county at large.

    If Dom has done one thing for good government it is to not care what Piers Morgan, the Daily Mail or the Guardian says....
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837
    tyson said:

    Mortimer said:

    Ave_it said:

    As a broad centre social democrat person I fully support the Boris approach and think that it is reasonable for the lockdown to continue broadly as current until end May.

    But I think that Boris needs to set a clear timetable for a way out with steps and timescales a. to give people hope and b. save the economy.

    Ave_it nails it yet again.

    The only announcement next week will be along the lines of 'heres some minor changes, (e.g. tips and garden centres) but lets make one more 3 week push and start lifting at the beginning of June'.

    The timetable for the easing can then be announced in the last week of May, and be in fact very slow...
    That is what has been signposted so far.

    This review will be get non Covid 19 healthcare ramped up and encourage businesses closed but currently not banned from operating to reopen if they can.

    Next 3 weeks to convince the public, get testing ramped up further including test track and tracing teams and the new app in place, as well as learning from lockdown easings elsewhere.

    So end of May it is for a gradual loosening of the lockdown.

    When the Times headline today stated that people need to take their temperatures before going out...that was it for me....we really do have the most incompetent set of individuals in charge at this minute...

    Just think...we are an Island...Boris could have locked down 2 weeks earlier and closed airports earlier still......he would now be walking on water...but he is a buffoon, and we have the worst set of people in charge in my lifetime.....
    Would we have done the same for Ebola, Sars, Mers, Zika and trashed our economies unnecessarily every few years or just had a magic crystal ball to know which would spread and which wouldnt?
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    Andy_JS said:

    Ave_it said:

    As a broad centre social democrat person I fully support the Boris approach and think that it is reasonable for the lockdown to continue broadly as current until end May.

    But I think that Boris needs to set a clear timetable for a way out with steps and timescales a. to give people hope and b. save the economy.

    The only solution remains herd immunity. Sweden are doing the right thing IMO.
    Thank fuck you were nowhere near the levers of power...otherwise we'd have the bin men trawling around our streets collecting our dead relatives taped up in bin bags.....
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    edited May 2020

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Fewer than one in five of the British public believe the time is right to consider reopening schools, restaurants, pubs and stadiums. The findings, in a new poll for the Observer, suggest Boris Johnson will struggle to convince people to return their lives to normal if he tries to ease the lockdown soon.

    The poll by Opinium, taken between Wednesday and Friday last week, found 17% of people think the conditions have been met to consider reopening schools, against 67% who say they have not been, and that they should stay closed.

    Opposition to reopening restaurants and pubs – and allowing mass gatherings in sports and other stadiums to resume – is even higher. Just 11% of people think the time is right to consider reopening restaurants, while 78% are against. Only 9% believe it would be correct to consider reopening pubs, while 81% are against; 7% say it would be right to think of allowing mass gatherings at sports events or concerts to resume, with 84% against.

    On Saturday the psychologist Prof Dame Til Wykes of King’s College London said the public’s reactions to easing the lockdown were likely to reveal high levels of anxiety. “How reopening society is going to affect people has not really been examined in any detail,” she said....

    ...The Opinium poll shows the government struggling to hold on to public support over its handling of the coronavirus crisis. The percentage of people who approve of its management of the crisis has fallen from 61% three weeks ago to 47% now, with the proportion of those who disapprove up from 22% to 34%. The net approval rate has fallen therefore from plus 39% to plus 13%. Given the fragile state of support, ministers will be determined not to misread the public mood over easing the lockdown.

    Adam Drummond of Opinium said that views among the public over what to do about the lockdown seemed to differ from those at Westminster. “The public’s appetite for lifting the lockdown measures remains minuscule,” Drummond said. “Very few people believe that conditions have been met to allow for public spaces and venues to reopen on 8 May, and while some are treating the rules less strictly, few admit to breaching them.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/02/fearful-britons-oppose-lifting-lockdown-schools-pubs-restaurants-opinium-poll

    Polls like this piss me off. They encourage the Government to do nothing.

    My wife and I are desperate for nurseries to reopen. We're utterly exhausted. So are other parents of young children in our position.

    Bloody public opinion. Grr.
    The only people I know who want the lockdown lifted are those who seem unhappy in their own company and used to organised fun, largely orbiting pubs and restaurants, or have young children.
    I think it goes deeper than that. Lots of people are tired of it but they are also scared.

    There are many of course who don't particularly enjoy their jobs or bosses though so might be happy staying at home getting paid or furloughed.
    I forgot to mention, every one of those I know wanting easing insists that 'everyone wants it eased', and go a little quiet when I point out that polling suggests the exact opposite.
    That doesn't conflict with what I said.
    I didn't mean it too! I was just making a supplementary point that I forgot to earlier.
    Fair enough.
    I can well imagine it is really tough for you at the moment, commiserations mate.

    I was chatting to a pal on Friday and said 'you sound muffled', and he said 'I'm hiding in the wardrobe'. I laughed. He said, 'I'm not joking, its the only place I can get away from the kids for 10 minutes'.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,489

    Mortimer said:

    Ave_it said:

    As a broad centre social democrat person I fully support the Boris approach and think that it is reasonable for the lockdown to continue broadly as current until end May.

    But I think that Boris needs to set a clear timetable for a way out with steps and timescales a. to give people hope and b. save the economy.

    Ave_it nails it yet again.

    The only announcement next week will be along the lines of 'heres some minor changes, (e.g. tips and garden centres) but lets make one more 3 week push and start lifting at the beginning of June'.

    The timetable for the easing can then be announced in the last week of May, and be in fact very slow...
    Tips need to reopen pronto but what is the deal with garden centres, that were raised twice at PMQs last week?
    Lots of retired people are writing to their MPs asking about it.

    MPs can't ignore them (particularly since they're Tory core vote) so ask a question about it in the House (preferably PMQs) which they can then tell them about.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,878
    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Mortimer said:

    eadric said:

    Masks now mandatory on Spanish public transport


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52513516

    I see no reason why we should be different

    I got a train to work today. I'm not joking, I was the only person in the three carriages I could see.
    Today in north London I saw something even weirder.

    A ten carriage Tube train with ONE passenger, in mid afternoon on a sunny Saturday. No kidding.
    Except there is no such thing as a "ten-carriage Tube train". You can get 8 carriages on the Metropolitan, Central and Victoria lines, 7 on the Bakerloo, Circle, District, Hammersmith & City, and Jubilee. 6 on the Northern and Piccadilly. And only 4 on the Waterloo & City.
    lol. Sunil, here I must yield to your greater knowledge.

    The train was on the Northern Line so it must have been six?

    I really did count just one passenger tho. I have never seen that ever before, in thirty odd years of London life
    Well, I haven't ridden the Tube since Feb 28th (Nine weeks and a day ago!), a National Rail train since March 12th, and the same for a bus (Seven weeks and two days ago!).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    I notice that fat rocket man was puffing away on the ciggies in that footage they released yesterday. Doesn't seem very wise for somebody who supposedly had heart surgery a couple of weeks ago.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    eadric said:

    I fear the government won't make any plans to produce the millions of masks required and then in July / August announce that we all need to wear them.

    Please tell me they cannot be that stupid.

    Please.

    They should have been buying every mask available for the last six weeks, awaiting the inevitable announcement that any deconfinement must be accompanied by mask wearing (on buses, trains, in shops etc)
    Well the German government set themselves the target of 50 million German made masks a week by August. The UK government, we haven't heard any talk of really focusing on how to make any PPE at expanded volume here.

    And we know we can't trust the Chinese to provide it, you buy masks and you get t-shirts half the time. Apparently they are keeping just enormous numbers of masks for themselves, as they have mandated all sorts of rules for work e.g. mask, how often you must have a new one etc.
    Masks for the public do not have to be the same quality as for heart surgeons or Porton Down lab techs. There is no reason the government cannot place orders with textile factories, preferably in Britain.
    Mrs P is a dab hand with the sewing machine - I suspect she will be running up plenty enough masks for the two of us from her stocks of dress-making material. Some of the patterns could be interesting mind!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,675
    Mortimer said:


    I can well imagine it is really tough for you at the moment, commiserations mate.

    I was chatting to a pal on Friday and said 'you sound muffled', and he said 'I'm hiding in the wardrobe'. I laughed. He said, 'I'm not joking, its the only place I can get away from the kids for 10 minutes'.

    I'm locking myself in the ensuite bathroom, so the kids are separated from me by two sets of locked doors.

    It's paradise.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Mortimer said:

    FF43 said:

    Omnium said:

    FF43 said:

    Omnium said:

    FF43 said:

    ..

    Omnium said:

    FF43 said:

    Omnium said:

    glw said:

    NYC overall: 19.9% positive for antibodies.

    Bronx: 27.6%
    Brooklyn: 19.2%
    Manhattan: 17.3%
    Queens: 18.4%
    Staten Island: 19.2%

    IFR of 0.8% on those current figures.

    Taking that IFR and applying it to the UK with current figures would suggest that 3.5 million have been infected across the country, and over 600,000 in London alone. Officially it's about 182,000 across the country. Now admittedly there are deaths to come, and different circumstances and populations between New York City and London and the UK, but a rough estimate of there being an order of magnitude more cases than is official does seem highly likely.
    Very good news if such high figures are correct. I actually think that the truth may be higher still, but just a hunch.

    If only one could trust the test!

    (Personally I had some sort of bug some weeks ago - it wasn't nice, but wasn't that bad either. I live in fairly central London)
    Why is it good news? It means this epidemic has seen less than one tenth of expected deaths in London before it runs its course and a lot less than one tenth of deaths elsewhere.
    I think you answered your own question.

    If everybody's had it and mostly recovered it's great.
    Less one tenth have had it. We're looking at a potential death toll in the hundreds of thousands in the UK, on a par with the whole of WW2. Doesn't that bother you?
    I want as many people as possible to have HAD the bug. There will be some partial immunity from having it and even if there isn't these people have demonstrated that they can deal with it.

    I don't get your point unfortunately. We're talking very small fractions of the population having had the disease.

    On a slightly related note, my Covid objective is NOT to contribute to herd immunity. A vaccine would be great, otherwise my aim is to stay well clear. I'm hardly alone in this objective.
    Well somehow the wires must be crossed.

    If everyone in the UK has had the disease already (unknowing perhaps, but they've survived) it's far better news that if only the small number that the NHS have identified have had it.

    My hope therefore is that it turn out that a very large fraction of the population has had this.
    Understood now. That would be good obviously.

    The figures back in the mists of this conversation suggest one in twenty in the UK have had the virus, based on a New York derived 0.8% Infection/fatality rate. It also suggests an implied death toll in the UK of about 300 000 if the epidemic runs its course and a 60% herd immunity rate.
    With a reduced R number, the level at which herd immunity kicks is is FAR lower.
    I asked about this on here the other day and didn't get an answer. I think it's a red herring, but not sure.

    We're talking about the difference between an inherent infection rate R0 for the disease and actual transmission rate Rt after controls have been put in place. The epidemic will tail off quicker with a lower, controlled, Infection rate.

    Two points here, I think. First is that as the epidemic drops off, you will want to remove those controls, at which point Rt jumps back up to R0. The second point is about semantics. The point of the controls is to reduce infection and death. Would you in this case say that controls are working in bringing infections down or by shifting the herd immunity percentage? The first explanation is the more straightforward one.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,489
    eadric said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Masks will be compulsory on public transport in Spain from Monday as the country moves to gradually relax its tough lockdown.

    I hope the UK government have considered how they are going to get millions of masks every week for the public.

    Surely you mean millions of masks every hour? Won't you need a clean one to go home and two more the next day? Or could it just be even more virtue signalling?
    South Korea, you get two a week. Germany say by August should be able to produce about one a week for everybody.

    Also depends what type of mask.
    Germany one a week? Like underpants?
    I've got *goes to count*
    10 of these

    That's a lovely mask. OOOOOOH

    Is there such a thing as mask-lust? I fancy that mask. Grrrr

    Welcome to Hazmat porn
    Your fervour for masks makes William Glenn's views on the EU look like fence sitting.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,816
    Andy_JS said:

    Ave_it said:

    As a broad centre social democrat person I fully support the Boris approach and think that it is reasonable for the lockdown to continue broadly as current until end May.

    But I think that Boris needs to set a clear timetable for a way out with steps and timescales a. to give people hope and b. save the economy.

    The only solution remains herd immunity. Sweden are doing the right thing IMO.
    Correct - We may not be too far away from getting it here though - many people have had this in the UK - we may as well ease the lockdown now as the NHS has capacity
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729
    Mortimer said:

    tyson said:

    Mortimer said:

    Ave_it said:

    As a broad centre social democrat person I fully support the Boris approach and think that it is reasonable for the lockdown to continue broadly as current until end May.

    But I think that Boris needs to set a clear timetable for a way out with steps and timescales a. to give people hope and b. save the economy.

    Ave_it nails it yet again.

    The only announcement next week will be along the lines of 'heres some minor changes, (e.g. tips and garden centres) but lets make one more 3 week push and start lifting at the beginning of June'.

    The timetable for the easing can then be announced in the last week of May, and be in fact very slow...
    That is what has been signposted so far.

    This review will be get non Covid 19 healthcare ramped up and encourage businesses closed but currently not banned from operating to reopen if they can.

    Next 3 weeks to convince the public, get testing ramped up further including test track and tracing teams and the new app in place, as well as learning from lockdown easings elsewhere.

    So end of May it is for a gradual loosening of the lockdown.

    When the Times headline today stated that people need to take their temperatures before going out...that was it for me....we really do have the most incompetent set of individuals in charge at this minute...

    Just think...we are an Island...Boris could have locked down 2 weeks earlier and closed airports earlier still......he would now be walking on water...but he is a buffoon, and we have the worst set of people in charge in my lifetime.....
    My favourite thing about this current government is that unlike every one since Maggie, they don't seem petrified about the papers or the broadcast media. Those in power have realised that the media influences and reflects Westminster outrage far more than the views of the county at large.

    If Dom has done one thing for good government it is to not care what Piers Morgan, the Daily Mail or the Guardian says....
    He and i are therefore kindred spirits......
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,675

    I notice that fat rocket man was puffing away on the ciggies in that footage they released yesterday. Doesn't seem very wise for somebody who supposedly had heart surgery a couple of weeks ago.

    Do you really want to be the North Korean doctor who tells him not to do something?

    Executed by anti-tank gun is the likely outcome.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited May 2020
    Just f##k off with the "its ageist" bollocks. I don't care how many miles you ride on your bike a day, if you are over 70 and you get this, you are a pretty damn high chance of being in a lot of trouble. Its not ageist, its just fact.

    And now an "independent" SAGE...what a stupid idea. They won't see the data, so how can they act as a peer review process. It screams of just playing politics.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1256691490983739394?s=20
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    Mortimer said:

    tyson said:

    Mortimer said:

    Ave_it said:

    As a broad centre social democrat person I fully support the Boris approach and think that it is reasonable for the lockdown to continue broadly as current until end May.

    But I think that Boris needs to set a clear timetable for a way out with steps and timescales a. to give people hope and b. save the economy.

    Ave_it nails it yet again.

    The only announcement next week will be along the lines of 'heres some minor changes, (e.g. tips and garden centres) but lets make one more 3 week push and start lifting at the beginning of June'.

    The timetable for the easing can then be announced in the last week of May, and be in fact very slow...
    That is what has been signposted so far.

    This review will be get non Covid 19 healthcare ramped up and encourage businesses closed but currently not banned from operating to reopen if they can.

    Next 3 weeks to convince the public, get testing ramped up further including test track and tracing teams and the new app in place, as well as learning from lockdown easings elsewhere.

    So end of May it is for a gradual loosening of the lockdown.

    When the Times headline today stated that people need to take their temperatures before going out...that was it for me....we really do have the most incompetent set of individuals in charge at this minute...

    Just think...we are an Island...Boris could have locked down 2 weeks earlier and closed airports earlier still......he would now be walking on water...but he is a buffoon, and we have the worst set of people in charge in my lifetime.....
    My favourite thing about this current government is that unlike every one since Maggie, they don't seem petrified about the papers or the broadcast media. Those in power have realised that the media influences and reflects Westminster outrage far more than the views of the county at large.

    If Dom has done one thing for good government it is to not care what Piers Morgan, the Daily Mail or the Guardian says....
    That's all fine comrade with the politics....

    meanwhile in real life....we will have the worst death rate in Europe.....we are going to take the worst economic hit...we are going to be the slowest out of lock down and be in the worst shape to manage the recovery....

    But you've got Dom...so good
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,816
    edited May 2020

    tyson said:

    Mortimer said:

    Ave_it said:

    As a broad centre social democrat person I fully support the Boris approach and think that it is reasonable for the lockdown to continue broadly as current until end May.

    But I think that Boris needs to set a clear timetable for a way out with steps and timescales a. to give people hope and b. save the economy.

    Ave_it nails it yet again.

    The only announcement next week will be along the lines of 'heres some minor changes, (e.g. tips and garden centres) but lets make one more 3 week push and start lifting at the beginning of June'.

    The timetable for the easing can then be announced in the last week of May, and be in fact very slow...
    That is what has been signposted so far.

    This review will be get non Covid 19 healthcare ramped up and encourage businesses closed but currently not banned from operating to reopen if they can.

    Next 3 weeks to convince the public, get testing ramped up further including test track and tracing teams and the new app in place, as well as learning from lockdown easings elsewhere.

    So end of May it is for a gradual loosening of the lockdown.

    When the Times headline today stated that people need to take their temperatures before going out...that was it for me....we really do have the most incompetent set of individuals in charge at this minute...

    Just think...we are an Island...Boris could have locked down 2 weeks earlier and closed airports earlier still......he would now be walking on water...but he is a buffoon, and we have the worst set of people in charge in my lifetime.....
    Would we have done the same for Ebola, Sars, Mers, Zika and trashed our economies unnecessarily every few years or just had a magic crystal ball to know which would spread and which wouldnt?
    No point in locking down earlier than we did as unpalatable as it seems it is , its inevitable that everyone needs to get this to develop herd immunity - be different if it was plague (with a 50% death rate) but this has a death rate no higher than 1%.More than that will die if lockdown causes economic and social consequences , it probably already has
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Ave_it said:

    As a broad centre social democrat person I fully support the Boris approach and think that it is reasonable for the lockdown to continue broadly as current until end May.

    But I think that Boris needs to set a clear timetable for a way out with steps and timescales a. to give people hope and b. save the economy.

    The lockdown will not hold for another month. It’s completely unrealistic.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    Andy_JS said:

    Ave_it said:

    As a broad centre social democrat person I fully support the Boris approach and think that it is reasonable for the lockdown to continue broadly as current until end May.

    But I think that Boris needs to set a clear timetable for a way out with steps and timescales a. to give people hope and b. save the economy.

    The only solution remains herd immunity. Sweden are doing the right thing IMO.
    Correct - We may not be too far away from getting it here though - many people have had this in the UK - we may as well ease the lockdown now as the NHS has capacity
    If we fill it with Covid 19 patients again are you happy to provide the signs saying fuck off if you have cancer
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,816
    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Ave_it said:

    As a broad centre social democrat person I fully support the Boris approach and think that it is reasonable for the lockdown to continue broadly as current until end May.

    But I think that Boris needs to set a clear timetable for a way out with steps and timescales a. to give people hope and b. save the economy.

    The only solution remains herd immunity. Sweden are doing the right thing IMO.
    No. You can keep the virus at a low level with track and trace like South Korea till a vaccine is out.
    But that could be years - it will kill more people by the social and economic consequences of trying to control it.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,218
    Mortimer said:

    eadric said:

    Masks now mandatory on Spanish public transport


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52513516

    I see no reason why we should be different

    I got a train to work today. I'm not joking, I was the only person in the three carriages I could see.
    You might have been wearing the mask wrong.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,816

    Andy_JS said:

    Ave_it said:

    As a broad centre social democrat person I fully support the Boris approach and think that it is reasonable for the lockdown to continue broadly as current until end May.

    But I think that Boris needs to set a clear timetable for a way out with steps and timescales a. to give people hope and b. save the economy.

    The only solution remains herd immunity. Sweden are doing the right thing IMO.
    Correct - We may not be too far away from getting it here though - many people have had this in the UK - we may as well ease the lockdown now as the NHS has capacity
    If we fill it with Covid 19 patients again are you happy to provide the signs saying fuck off if you have cancer
    cancer patients are the ones most at risk of being turned away or not diagnosed due to scaremongering about not leaving houses
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    FF43 said:

    Mortimer said:

    FF43 said:

    Omnium said:

    FF43 said:

    Omnium said:

    FF43 said:

    ..

    Omnium said:

    FF43 said:

    Omnium said:

    glw said:

    NYC overall: 19.9% positive for antibodies.

    Bronx: 27.6%
    Brooklyn: 19.2%
    Manhattan: 17.3%
    Queens: 18.4%
    Staten Island: 19.2%

    IFR of 0.8% on those current figures.

    Taking that IFR and applying it to the UK with current figures would suggest that 3.5 million have been infected across the country, and over 600,000 in London alone. Officially it's about 182,000 across the country. Now admittedly there are deaths to come, and different circumstances and populations between New York City and London and the UK, but a rough estimate of there being an order of magnitude more cases than is official does seem highly likely.
    Very good news if such high figures are correct. I actually think that the truth may be higher still, but just a hunch.

    If only one could trust the test!

    (Personally I had some sort of bug some weeks ago - it wasn't nice, but wasn't that bad either. I live in fairly central London)
    Why is it good news? It means this epidemic has seen less than one tenth of expected deaths in London before it runs its course and a lot less than one tenth of deaths elsewhere.
    I think you answered your own question.

    If everybody's had it and mostly recovered it's great.
    Less one tenth have had it. We're looking at a potential death toll in the hundreds of thousands in the UK, on a par with the whole of WW2. Doesn't that bother you?
    I want as many people as possible to have HAD the bug. There will be some partial immunity from having it and even if there isn't these people have demonstrated that they can deal with it.

    I don't get your point unfortunately. We're talking very small fractions of the population having had the disease.

    On a slightly related note, my Covid objective is NOT to contribute to herd immunity. A vaccine would be great, otherwise my aim is to stay well clear. I'm hardly alone in this objective.
    Well somehow the wires must be crossed.

    If everyone in the UK has had the disease already (unknowing perhaps, but they've survived) it's far better news that if only the small number that the NHS have identified have had it.

    My hope therefore is that it turn out that a very large fraction of the population has had this.
    Understood now. That would be good obviously.

    The figures back in the mists of this conversation suggest one in twenty in the UK have had the virus, based on a New York derived 0.8% Infection/fatality rate. It also suggests an implied death toll in the UK of about 300 000 if the epidemic runs its course and a 60% herd immunity rate.
    With a reduced R number, the level at which herd immunity kicks is is FAR lower.
    I asked about this on here the other day and didn't get an answer. I think it's a red herring, but not sure.

    We're talking about the difference between an inherent infection rate R0 for the disease and actual transmission rate Rt after controls have been put in place. The epidemic will tail off quicker with a lower, controlled, Infection rate.

    Two points here, I think. First is that as the epidemic drops off, you will want to remove those controls, at which point Rt jumps back up to R0. The second point is about semantics. The point of the controls is to reduce infection and death. Would you in this case say that controls are working in bringing infections down or by shifting the herd immunity percentage? The first explanation is the more straightforward one.
    Rt won't equal R0 in a herd once there are immune individuals. Rt is reduced in relation to R0 as more and more immunity blocks the reproductive rate.

    https://www.journalofinfection.com/article/S0163-4453(20)30154-7/fulltext

    This info basically backs up the signposted advice that lots of social distancing measures will remain.

    If we can keep Rt below 1, herd immunity is reached at a much lower level of community infection.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837

    Ave_it said:

    As a broad centre social democrat person I fully support the Boris approach and think that it is reasonable for the lockdown to continue broadly as current until end May.

    But I think that Boris needs to set a clear timetable for a way out with steps and timescales a. to give people hope and b. save the economy.

    The lockdown will not hold for another month. It’s completely unrealistic.
    The aim wont be for it to hold fully, they want it to be eased ever so slightly to see what happens to R. So if 10% start to push the boundaries, thats completely in line with the govts likely objectives here. Of course they cant say that.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,681
    edited May 2020
    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Ave_it said:

    As a broad centre social democrat person I fully support the Boris approach and think that it is reasonable for the lockdown to continue broadly as current until end May.

    But I think that Boris needs to set a clear timetable for a way out with steps and timescales a. to give people hope and b. save the economy.

    The only solution remains herd immunity. Sweden are doing the right thing IMO.
    No. You can keep the virus at a low level with track and trace like South Korea till a vaccine is out.
    It seems that nobody has asked the goverment what their overall strategy now is. Are they still thinking everyone is going to get this before a vaccine is available (as originally stated, both here and elsewhere), or are we waiting it out?

    I suppose that if they are wanting to wait it out then keeping a lid on it will be a bit easier now some proportion of the population (and likely the proportion that were most likely to spread it) already have immunity.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    Ave_it said:

    As a broad centre social democrat person I fully support the Boris approach and think that it is reasonable for the lockdown to continue broadly as current until end May.

    But I think that Boris needs to set a clear timetable for a way out with steps and timescales a. to give people hope and b. save the economy.

    The lockdown will not hold for another month. It’s completely unrealistic.
    What's important is that we have a clear plan provided next week with rough timescales.

    If we don't get that then indeed public support for the current lockdown will fall away.
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